Embargo after all? + IPCC report + Orbán • Table.Briefings

Dear reader,

The Bucha massacre, during which many civilians were killed by Russian troops, has further fueled the European debate about an embargo on Russian energy sources. However, the German government still sees no way around Russian gas. Things are different for oil and coal, as Till Hoppe writes in his Feature.

In order to get away from Russian oil and gas, worldwide short-term investments in fossil infrastructure must be made. This will make the 1.5-degree target even harder to reach. That’s according to the third and decisive IPCC partial report, which was presented yesterday. Manuel Berkel analyzed the report for Europe.Table.

The re-election of Viktor Orbán as prime minister of Hungary met with silence in Brussels. It said it did not presume to pass judgment on national elections. At the same time, however, congratulations to the election winner were not forthcoming. Instead, the EU Commission wants to initiate proceedings under the new rule of law mechanism, as you can read in the Feature on the topic.

Elections were also held in Serbia. Here, too, there was no surprise in the outcome of the presidential election: The winner is Aleksandar Vučić, the incumbent since 2017. No wonder, as the Serbian nationalist – much like his counterpart Viktor Orbán – controls almost everything in the country. Read more in the News.

In today’s Opinion, Michael Müller-Görnert, transport policy spokesman for the Verkehrsclub Deutschland (VCD), writes why the CO2 limits for new cars and the EU-wide phase-out date for internal combustion vehicles, laid down in the EU Commission’s “Fit for 55” package, are not ambitious enough. Associations like the VCD are already calling for a stricter interim target for next year.

Your
Lisa-Martina Klein

EU states discuss oil and coal embargo

By

Till Hoppe

In the wake of the Bucha atrocities, the discussion about tougher sanctions against Russia is gaining momentum. Yesterday, France’s President Emmanuel Macron spoke out in favor of targeting imports of Russian oil and coal. He is thus increasing the pressure on the German government, and numerous other member states support such steps.

Yesterday, Finance Minister Christian Lindner ruled out only a short-term halt to natural gas imports. “We support further sanctions against Russia,” he said before a meeting of the Euro Group. But he said it was necessary to differentiate between gas, coal and oil, because replacing them would take different lengths of time. “Gas cannot be substituted in the short term,” Lindner said.

The EU Commission has already been working on proposals for a fifth sanctions package since the recent EU summit. This is now to be adapted in light of the events in the suburbs of Kiev. From the Commission’s point of view, all options are on the table, said Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis. He hoped that member states could agree on a far-reaching sanctions package, the Latvian said. “We need to do more to stop this war.”

Different options are being discussed in Brussels and Luxembourg. One alternative would be the gradual introduction of sanctions against oil and coal from Russia, or initially only against coal. Also under consideration is a high import duty on the two energy sources.

According to an analysis by the French Conseil d’Analyse Economique, the latter would even be more effective than an import ban. According to this analysis, a punitive tariff of 40 percent would reduce import volumes by about 80 percent. The remaining 20 percent would go to the countries most dependent on Russian supplies.

According to CAE, even a complete halt to Russian energy supplies – including gas – would be bearable, including for Germany. According to the study, Germany’s gross domestic product would fall by up to three percent in the most pessimistic scenario. For France, the consequences would be far less dramatic, with a drop of up to 0.3 percent, but for Lithuania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Finland, and the Czech Republic, the impact would be much greater: There could be a slump of up to five percent.

Dombrovskis also considers a complete import freeze to be economically viable. The various scenarios have been analyzed, he said. Even with a gas embargo, the conclusion was “that it is not without problems, but possible to deal with such a situation”. The Commission currently expects the war in Ukraine to lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth in the EU, but not to a recession. The authority plans to present its new economic forecast on May 16.

Investigation teams to shed light on war crime allegations

However, Germany and a number of other countries, such as Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, and the Netherlands, are opposed to a halt in gas supplies. Opposition to oil and coal is much less pronounced. The Netherlands, for example, sees room for maneuver there.

Meanwhile, the Belgian government supports an import ban on oil. “We will have to see what the Commission proposes, but Belgium will certainly not oppose it,” said Finance Minister Vincent van Peteghem. At the recent EU summit in Brussels, Belgium, like France and Germany, had still opposed sanctioning energy supplies from Russia.

The US government also plans to adopt new sanctions this week in coordination with the EU. Hundreds of bodies were discovered in Bucha and other suburbs of Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, over the weekend after Russian troops withdrew. Top Western politicians blame Russia for this.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that investigative teams would be sent to Ukraine to shed light on the alleged war crimes. The EU justice agency Eurojust and the law enforcement agency Europol are ready to assist, she said, and a joint investigation team is to gather evidence and solve war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke of a staging by Ukraine to harm Russia. According to Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the German government is considering the delivery of further defense systems to Kiev. The Green politician also announced the expulsion of 40 Russian diplomats. France also wants to expel numerous diplomats. with dpa/rtr

IPCC: $1-4 trillion fossil assets at risk

By

Manuel Berkel

Time and again, climate activists had warned of a setback for global decarbonization since the Russian incursion began. With all the announcements for new gas drilling, LNG terminals, and the return of major oil suppliers, climate goals would become a distant prospect. Now yesterday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented its crucial new partial report on mitigation scenarios for greenhouse gases.

Although the lengthy procedures of the scientific panel do not allow for direct reference to current policy developments, the tendency of the report is clear: Projected CO2 emissions from existing and planned fossil infrastructure would exceed the remaining budget for 1.5 degrees by 150 gigatons of CO2 and exhaust almost all of the margin for 2 degrees of warming – and that is without emissions from other sectors.

However, there are several caveats to consider. The statements largely relate to the use of fossil fuels in power generation and not to heat supply, industry, and transport, where the lion’s share of gas and oil consumption occurs. In addition, to counteract infrastructure emissions, gas and coal-fired power plants could be shut down earlier, have weaker load factors during their lifetime, or be equipped with CO2 capture technologies.

Lock-in through oil and gas infrastructure

But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s warning is clear: “The continued development of fossil fuel infrastructure without CO2 capture will entail a lock-in of greenhouse gas emissions.” If, on the other hand, the global economy consistently restricts fossil fuel use, it would render vast assets unusable. According to the IPCC’s calculations, the cost of these stranded assets is composed partly of the fossil fuels that remain in the ground and partly of the infrastructure that can no longer be used.

Even if global warming were to be limited to 2 degrees, global fossil assets worth $1-4 trillion would become unusable between 2015 and 2050, according to the IPCC. If limited to 1.5 degrees, the values would be even higher. Coal assets could lose value as early as 2030, according to the IPCC. Oil and gas consumption would have to fall by 60 and 70 percent, respectively, by mid-century compared to 2019 to still meet 1.5 degrees. With CO2 capture, gas consumption would only have to fall by 45 percent.

The Group of 46 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) also opposed investments in coal, oil, and gas on Monday. “There can be no new fossil fuel infrastructure,” the group’s head, Madeleine Diouf Sarr, announced on the occasion of the IPCC release.

More coal-fired power plants due to high gas prices

Given exploding gas prices, however, there is a danger that emerging and developing countries, in particular, will invest more in coal, the development organization Germanwatch warned yesterday. “We need more energy transition partnerships between the major industrialized nations and emerging and developing countries,” said managing director Christoph Bals.

For the EU, MEP Peter Liese (CDU), environmental spokesman for the EPP, referred to the goal of becoming independent of Russian energy imports. “In the short term, we have to use more coal and nuclear power; the answer for the future is the Fit for 55 package,” Liese informed.

According to the IPCC report, the world has less and less time to limit greenhouse gas emissions. The peak must be reached by 2025 at the latest. By 2030, emissions would have to fall by 27 to 43 percent compared to 2019 to limit the temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees.

Viktor Orbán: thorn in Europe’s side

By

Redaktion

After his unexpectedly high election victory, Viktor Orbán can do as he pleases for four more years. His right-wing nationalist Fidesz party won 53.1 percent of the vote, which under Hungarian electoral law is enough for a constitutional two-thirds majority in the parliament. Orbán spoke of “a victory so big you can see it from the moon”.

EU officials, on the other hand, remained resolutely silent. “We do not presume to pass judgment on national elections,” said a spokesperson for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Council President Charles Michel also remained silent. The usual congratulations to the election winner were not forthcoming.

They had probably hoped for a different election outcome. But for his clear victory, Orbán “abused his power as never before”, criticized Katarina Barley (SPD), vice president of the EU Parliament. The EU Commission was partly to blame because it had failed to take action against violations of the rule of law in Hungary. This was a “colossal mistake”, said Barley, who is friends with von der Leyen.

However, there are now signs of a change of course. According to information from Europe.Table, the EU Commission intends to initiate a procedure under the new rule of law mechanism this week. Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn is preparing the necessary steps, according to EU circles.

Months pass before sanctions are imposed

The decision is expected to be made as early as today or tomorrow. However, there is still a long way to go before EU funds are withdrawn. If the Commission really does initiate the multi-stage procedure, it will probably take seven to nine months before sanctions are imposed.

But the new rule-of-law mechanism alone can hardly stop authoritarian behavior. Encouraged by the renewed confirmation at the ballot box, Prime Minister Orbán is likely to continue dismantling democratic rights in Hungary. The independence of the judiciary, the media, science, schools, and culture are likely to be further restricted.

So far, Orbán has been able to use the payments from Brussels for his own power expansion. The close ties between Fidesz and its business friends would be inconceivable without the windfall from Brussels. For a long time, Orbán saw the European Union as an ATM from which he could withdraw ever-larger sums.

That could change, at least to some extent, with the rule of law conditionality. At the beginning of last year, the mechanism came into force to financially punish violations of European values and the EU budget. The Commission is also withholding €7 billion for Hungary from the COVID recovery program. This is hurting the country with its 9.8 million inhabitants.

Right-wing party clears five-percent hurdle

But the pain will hardly stop Orbán. With Orbán’s triumph on Sunday, his power is even more consolidated. The 58-year-old will run for re-election again in four years. Even optimists in Budapest have no doubt about that.

This raises the political question: Does the European Union want to keep Orbán Hungary as a member in perpetuity? Even if the EU treaties do not provide for exclusion, freezing membership could be an option. In the long run, the EU cannot afford to have a member state build an intolerant, authoritarian counter-model to liberal democracy. After twelve years of Orbán, Hungarian democracy is more backdrop than reality.

With the bitter defeat of the opposition six-party alliance “In Unity for Hungary” (Egységben Magyarországert), the already fragile alliance from right to liberal to left is likely to break up. By contrast, the far-right has surprisingly managed to clear the five-percent hurdle with its party “Our Homeland Movement” (Mi Hazánk Mozgalom).

Hungary’s permanent stay also calls into question the EU’s external cohesion. Hungary is the only member state that prevents arms deliveries to Ukraine through its territory. Orbán likes to express contempt for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. It is revealing that Vladimir Putin, of all people, was among the first well-wishers.

German companies welcome in Hungary

However, the Hungarian prime minister’s indirect loyalty to Russia calls into question the Visegrád alliance of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Poland has distanced itself from Hungary because of its stance in the Ukraine war. The governments in Bratislava and Prague no longer hide their incomprehension of Budapest.

Von der Leyen needs the support of a qualified majority among the member states for the rule of law mechanism. The times when tougher measures against Hungary fail because of the Quartet’s veto are probably over since the outbreak of war. Against this backdrop, too, “freezing” Hungary’s EU membership would be an option.

As in the case of Russia, German business has so far made no lasting contribution to weakening Orbán’s “illiberal democracy”. On the contrary, corporations from Volkswagen/Audi to Mercedes and BMW to Bosch and Siemens indirectly support the system.

German carmakers feel very much at home in the country. They appreciate the state support with low taxes and generous subsidies. The government in Budapest and the local level read the German investors’ wishes from their lips. After all, Hungary owes a fifth of all exports to the automotive industry. with Eric Bonse

Aleksandar Vučić wins big in Serbia

In an election campaign video, Aleksandar Vučić even stepped out of a refrigerator in the middle of a Serbian family’s living room. The message was clear: The head of state takes care of everything and is omnipresent. This was also the case on election night. Actually, even in Serbia, the state election commission announces the preliminary results, but because its members had already gone to sleep, Aleksandar Vučič immediately proclaimed himself the winner of the election.

The result is no surprise. The head of state and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) control almost everything in the country. Vučić comes in at 59 percent and the ruling party at 43 percent. Serbia’s Socialist Party (SPS) contributes 11.4 percent as a junior partner, enough for a comfortable majority in parliament. According to the non-governmental organization Freedom House, Serbia, a candidate for EU membership, is only “partially free“. The chronically divided opposition received hardly any airtime in the state-run media or in the private media controlled by trusted journalists.

The EU stands idly by and watches the dismantling of democracy and media freedom. During a recent visit to Belgrade, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the Serbian leadership for its “reforming zeal”. However, Serbia has recently taken more steps backward than forward. Since the start in 2014, 22 of 35 negotiation chapters have been opened, but so far, only two have been closed, and only provisionally at that. In the annual progress reports, Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi, Viktor Orbán’s deputy in Brussels, tries to downplay the steps backward in terms of the rule of law.

‘Iron-clad friendship’ with Beijing

Serbia’s president likes to present himself to visitors from the EU as a pro-European and a guarantor of stability in the region. At the same time, the former propaganda minister of dictator Slobodan Milosevic maintains good relations with Beijing and Moscow. Serbia’s president was one of only a few heads of state and government to travel to the opening of the Olympic Games as recently as February to celebrate the “iron friendship” between the two countries at a meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing.

At the same time, Serbia is one of the few countries in Europe that has not yet imposed sanctions against Russia. As an accession candidate, the country would actually be obliged to do so. MEPs from the liberal Renew Europe group have therefore called on the Commission to suspend accession negotiations with Belgrade and also to freeze the associated funding. His government will not join the West’s “anti-Russian hysteria”, said Vučić’s interior minister.

Serbia is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas. Gazprom has also been the majority shareholder in Serbia’s formerly state-owned oil company NIS since 2008. The dependence has been further cemented since the opening in 2020 of the Turkstream pipeline financed by the Russian gas company. Last fall, Aleksandar Vučić traveled to Sochi for a meeting with Vladimir Putin to ask for lower gas prices in view of the elections.

Corruption allegations fade into the background

China’s and Russia’s authoritarian regimes are more popular in Serbia than the EU, even though European companies are by far the most important trade and investment partners, and Belgrade, as a candidate country, benefits from billions in remittances from Brussels. Swing politics has paid off for Serbia’s president. In the election campaign, he ran on the slogan “Peace, Stability, Vučić” and presented himself as a guarantor of stability in uncertain times.

Chronic allegations of corruption or rumors of links between close associates and the organized crime milieu receded into the background. Similar to the environmental protests against a planned lithium mine, where the government withdrew the license from the British-Australian company Rio Tinto at the last moment and was thus able to defuse the conflict in time for the election. Stephan Israel

Elon Musk becomes Twitter’s largest single shareholder

For years, Elon Musk has had a love-hate relationship with Twitter. On the one hand, the entrepreneur uses his popularity on the platform for self-dramatization – so much so that it has already landed him in trouble with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. On the other hand, Musk is regularly dissatisfied with Twitter’s corporate policy. Musk has now acquired 9.2 percent of the shares in the company, making him the largest and most influential single shareholder.

When the Tesla and SpaceX founder asked his Twitter followers in late March whether they thought the social media platform was sufficiently committed to free speech, 2 million Twitter users cast their votes – 70.4 percent said: No. “Free speech is essential to a functioning democracy.,” Musk had written about the poll, and added as a postscript, “The consequences of this poll will be important. Please vote carefully.” The eccentric billionaire added the following day, “Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy.” And then publicly asked, also on Twitter of course, whether a new platform was needed.

Musk has long voiced criticism of Twitter’s behavior regarding account and content suspensions. Musk sees himself as an advocate of radical freedom of speech – so much so that Donald Trump Jr. asked him to please found an alternative platform after the former US President Donald Trump was blocked a year ago. This now exists in the form of Gettr – albeit without Musk’s official involvement. And Gettr, the Twitter clone from the Trump universe, has nowhere near the number of users that Twitter has. Musk’s now announced share purchase could now get the company into some trouble.

Twitter against the Network Enforcement Act

This is because Twitter must comply with legislation around the globe that imposes content moderation obligations on the platform. The platform is blocked in Russia, China, Iran, and Myanmar, among other countries. But Twitter is also repeatedly blocked by governments in other countries, for example, for seven months in Nigeria until January 2022, after the company removed a post by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari in accordance with its own rules. In the end, Twitter submitted to the demands of the government in Abuja.

As a rule, however, government agencies tend to demand that unpopular content or content prohibited under local laws be removed. Twitter, for example, is also subject to Germany’s Network Enforcement Act and would also be subject to the rules of the Digital Services Act in the future. In their last known draft stage, these would potentially cover all national expression of opinion crimes in the EU and more extensive content removal obligations than the German Network Enforcement Act (NetzDG).

At the same time, there is a debate in the USA about the extent to which platforms such as Twitter and Facebook should continue to be exempt from liability for illegal content under Section 230. This debate has been going on in particular since the events surrounding the Capitol in January 2021. Since then, platform operators have been accused of failing to prevent calls for violent overthrow or even actively promoting them with their interaction-optimized algorithms.

Musk, the self-proclaimed free speech activist, is now getting involved in this regulatory debate as a major shareholder in the platform – outcome uncertain, more tweets certain. fst

Habeck puts Gazprom Germania under state control

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck is intervening in the ownership of a gas company with an instrument that has never been used before to secure gas supplies. On Monday, the Green politician placed the German operations of the Russian gas company Gazprom under the trusteeship of the Federal Network Agency. The federal authority takes over all voting rights from business shares in Gazprom Germania for a limited period until September 30. This is not yet equivalent to expropriation.

But the authority is thus authorized to issue instructions to the management. Gazprom Germania operates gas trading and Germany’s largest natural gas storage facility in Rehden through its subsidiaries Wingas and Astora. Habeck has recourse to a paragraph in the Foreign Trade and Payments Act.

Accordingly, the establishment of a trusteeship is possible to avert a threat to public order and security. “The German government is doing what is necessary to ensure security of supply in Germany,” Habeck said, referring to the Russian presidential office in Moscow. “This includes not exposing energy infrastructures in Germany to arbitrary decisions by the Kremlin.”

Habeck: security of supply guaranteed

Habeck justified the state’s intervention on the grounds of unclear ownership of Gazprom Germania and the fact that his ministry had not given the necessary consent to the acquisition. The ministry had become aware of the indirect acquisition by an unknown company JSC Palmary and Gazprom export business services LLC.

It is unclear who is economically and legally behind these companies. The acquirer had also ordered the liquidation of Gazprom Germania, which was not legal because the acquisition had not been approved. The Russian parent company had announced on Friday that it was giving up Gazprom Germania, without giving details.

The trusteeship now also gives the Federal Network Agency the legal power to instruct greater filling of gas storage facilities, provided gas is available for this purpose. A reaction from Russia was still pending on Monday evening. rtr

Austrian gas hub launches platform for green gases

In the future, the Austrian natural gas trading platform Central European Gas Hub (CEGH) will trade green gases on the newly created CEGH GreenGas Platform. The platform will allow the purchase or sale of biomethane guarantee of origin (GoO) or biomethane with or without guarantees of origin. As soon as green hydrogen is available on the market, it will also be tradable on the platform, CEGH announced on Monday.

The CEGH GreenGas Platform will be gradually expanded to include green gas trading in other Central and Eastern European countries, according to the website announcement. CEGH is working with EEX, the European energy exchange in Leipzig, to do this. Green gases such as biogas and green hydrogen are expected to play an important role in decarbonizing the energy system. klm

Battery manufacturer CATL increases production capacity

Chinese battery manufacturer CATL will ramp up production at its new plant in Arnstadt, Thuringia, in the second half of the year. “We are on the home stretch,” said European President Matthias Zentgraf in Arnstadt on Monday while receiving an operating permit from the state of Thuringia for the first expansion stage of the plant.

It has an initial capacity of 8 gigawatt-hours. That corresponds to an annual capacity of batteries for about 120,000 EVs, Zentgraf told dpa. The plant will supply all major German automakers with battery cells for their EVs.

According to him, 1500 employees from the region are to be hired by the end of the year. In addition, there would be several hundred specialists from China who would be deployed during the installation of the production facilities and in the start-up phase of production but who would not stay permanently. Already on board are about 500 workers from the region.

According to Economics Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee (SPD), the Chinese company’s investment decision had a signal effect for eastern Germany as an industrial location. Intel, for example, had also referred to CATL in its decision in favor of Magdeburg. The Federal Government Commissioner for Eastern Germany, Carsten Schneider, called the battery factory an outstanding project in eastern Germany. The good reputation of the administrations, which decided quickly, also contributed to the settlement, Schneider said. dpa

CO2 limits for cars: key to climate protection and energy security

Michael Müller-Görnert

The war in Ukraine is a frightening reminder of the impact of our dependence on fossil fuels. For too long, we have relied on oil and gas to keep flowing, driving consumption ever higher – regardless of where the raw materials come from. Given the sharp rise in energy prices and the threat of supply bottlenecks, it’s clear that things can’t go on like this.

The same recipes that ensure climate protection – the expansion of renewables and greater efficiency – will also lead us out of the energy crisis and dependence on oil. In the transport sector, this means moving away from oil as quickly as possible and toward electric drives, economical and efficient vehicles, and, above all, switching to buses, trains, bicycles, and walking.

The focus is on road traffic. It is responsible for around a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and is still over 90 percent dependent on oil. CO2 emissions in this sector have risen instead of falling over the past 30 years. The main reason for this is that more and more cars are getting bigger and more powerful.

The EU has been limiting the CO2 emissions of new cars since 2009 to reduce fuel consumption. The last time car manufacturers had to meet these limits was last year, and further limits will come into force in 2025 and 2030. The limits do not apply to individual vehicles but to the fleet of new cars in the target year. Although the average fuel consumption of new cars has also fallen since then, CO2 fleet limits for passenger cars are crucial as the EU’s central instrument for the drive turnaround.

One in ten new cars is electric

Regulation is largely responsible for the fact that the share of EVs in new registrations increased significantly last year. In the EU, one in ten new cars was purely electric. In Germany, the number even doubled compared to 2020, and by the end of 2021, the share of new registrations was over 20 percent. The EV is increasingly displacing gasoline and diesel engines, accelerating the momentum away from the internal combustion engine. What’s more, many countries have now set phase-out dates for internal combustion engines. More and more automakers are announcing that they will soon be switching their production completely to purely battery-electric cars.

Against this backdrop, the EU Commission presented a draft for tightening up the CO2 fleet limits for cars in July 2021 as part of its “Fit for 55” package. The 2030 target of reducing CO2 emissions by an average of 37.5 percent compared with 2021 was raised to 55 percent. From 2035, new cars are to emit no more CO2. By contrast, the limit value for 2025 of 15 percent remained untouched.

A positive aspect of the new EU proposal is that, for the first time, an EU-wide end date for the phase-out of internal combustion engines is to be specified. This gives manufacturers planning certainty and accelerates the switch to e-drives. However, 2035 is too late, and the targets for 2030 are far too weak. This jeopardizes the achievement of the EU climate target as well as the national climate targets, as no additional CO2 reductions will be made by 2030.

The consultations in Brussels have begun. Traditionally, it is the European Parliament that wants to make the targets stricter. The lead rapporteur, Dutch right-wing liberal Jan Huitema, has proposed reducing average emissions from new cars by 25 percent as early as 2025, raising the target for 2030 from 55 percent to 75 percent, and introducing an additional interim target of 45 percent for 2027. It reaffirms the goal of zero CO2 emissions from new cars from 2035.

Associations call for stricter interim targets

Federal Environment Minister Steffi Lemke also wanted to propose similar specifications for the German position but was thwarted by her cabinet colleague Volker Wissing and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. With reference to the coalition agreement, only the EU Commission’s draft is to be supported. The German position is progress compared to the past – but it is not sufficient given the new situation.

We need to change course now. The coming years are crucial for climate protection and for moving away from oil. That is why the VCD and other German environmental associations are calling for an interim target of minus 15 percent to be introduced as early as next year, for the target for 2025 to be raised to 45 percent, and for annual interim targets to be set thereafter until 2030. According to our proposal, new cars should emit zero emissions from 2030.

Ambitious European passenger car limits are a decisive lever for more climate protection in transport. At the same time, they are indispensable for making us independent of oil and despotic states more quickly. The German government should realize this and reconsider its position. The reference to the coalition agreement is no longer appropriate given the distortions caused by the Ukraine war.

EUROPE.TABLE EDITORS

Till
Hoppe

Charlotte
Wirth

Falk
Steiner

Timo
Landenberger

Corinna
Visser

Lukas
Knigge

Eric
Bonse

Sarah
Schaefer

Manuel
Berkel

Lisa-Martina
Klein

Markus
Grabitz

Stephan
Israel

Claire
Stam

Dear reader,

The Bucha massacre, during which many civilians were killed by Russian troops, has further fueled the European debate about an embargo on Russian energy sources. However, the German government still sees no way around Russian gas. Things are different for oil and coal, as Till Hoppe writes in his Feature.

In order to get away from Russian oil and gas, worldwide short-term investments in fossil infrastructure must be made. This will make the 1.5-degree target even harder to reach. That’s according to the third and decisive IPCC partial report, which was presented yesterday. Manuel Berkel analyzed the report for Europe.Table.

The re-election of Viktor Orbán as prime minister of Hungary met with silence in Brussels. It said it did not presume to pass judgment on national elections. At the same time, however, congratulations to the election winner were not forthcoming. Instead, the EU Commission wants to initiate proceedings under the new rule of law mechanism, as you can read in the Feature on the topic.

Elections were also held in Serbia. Here, too, there was no surprise in the outcome of the presidential election: The winner is Aleksandar Vučić, the incumbent since 2017. No wonder, as the Serbian nationalist – much like his counterpart Viktor Orbán – controls almost everything in the country. Read more in the News.

In today’s Opinion, Michael Müller-Görnert, transport policy spokesman for the Verkehrsclub Deutschland (VCD), writes why the CO2 limits for new cars and the EU-wide phase-out date for internal combustion vehicles, laid down in the EU Commission’s “Fit for 55” package, are not ambitious enough. Associations like the VCD are already calling for a stricter interim target for next year.

Your
Lisa-Martina Klein

EU states discuss oil and coal embargo

By

Till Hoppe

In the wake of the Bucha atrocities, the discussion about tougher sanctions against Russia is gaining momentum. Yesterday, France’s President Emmanuel Macron spoke out in favor of targeting imports of Russian oil and coal. He is thus increasing the pressure on the German government, and numerous other member states support such steps.

Yesterday, Finance Minister Christian Lindner ruled out only a short-term halt to natural gas imports. “We support further sanctions against Russia,” he said before a meeting of the Euro Group. But he said it was necessary to differentiate between gas, coal and oil, because replacing them would take different lengths of time. “Gas cannot be substituted in the short term,” Lindner said.

The EU Commission has already been working on proposals for a fifth sanctions package since the recent EU summit. This is now to be adapted in light of the events in the suburbs of Kiev. From the Commission’s point of view, all options are on the table, said Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis. He hoped that member states could agree on a far-reaching sanctions package, the Latvian said. “We need to do more to stop this war.”

Different options are being discussed in Brussels and Luxembourg. One alternative would be the gradual introduction of sanctions against oil and coal from Russia, or initially only against coal. Also under consideration is a high import duty on the two energy sources.

According to an analysis by the French Conseil d’Analyse Economique, the latter would even be more effective than an import ban. According to this analysis, a punitive tariff of 40 percent would reduce import volumes by about 80 percent. The remaining 20 percent would go to the countries most dependent on Russian supplies.

According to CAE, even a complete halt to Russian energy supplies – including gas – would be bearable, including for Germany. According to the study, Germany’s gross domestic product would fall by up to three percent in the most pessimistic scenario. For France, the consequences would be far less dramatic, with a drop of up to 0.3 percent, but for Lithuania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Finland, and the Czech Republic, the impact would be much greater: There could be a slump of up to five percent.

Dombrovskis also considers a complete import freeze to be economically viable. The various scenarios have been analyzed, he said. Even with a gas embargo, the conclusion was “that it is not without problems, but possible to deal with such a situation”. The Commission currently expects the war in Ukraine to lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth in the EU, but not to a recession. The authority plans to present its new economic forecast on May 16.

Investigation teams to shed light on war crime allegations

However, Germany and a number of other countries, such as Austria, Bulgaria, Greece, and the Netherlands, are opposed to a halt in gas supplies. Opposition to oil and coal is much less pronounced. The Netherlands, for example, sees room for maneuver there.

Meanwhile, the Belgian government supports an import ban on oil. “We will have to see what the Commission proposes, but Belgium will certainly not oppose it,” said Finance Minister Vincent van Peteghem. At the recent EU summit in Brussels, Belgium, like France and Germany, had still opposed sanctioning energy supplies from Russia.

The US government also plans to adopt new sanctions this week in coordination with the EU. Hundreds of bodies were discovered in Bucha and other suburbs of Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, over the weekend after Russian troops withdrew. Top Western politicians blame Russia for this.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that investigative teams would be sent to Ukraine to shed light on the alleged war crimes. The EU justice agency Eurojust and the law enforcement agency Europol are ready to assist, she said, and a joint investigation team is to gather evidence and solve war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke of a staging by Ukraine to harm Russia. According to Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, the German government is considering the delivery of further defense systems to Kiev. The Green politician also announced the expulsion of 40 Russian diplomats. France also wants to expel numerous diplomats. with dpa/rtr

IPCC: $1-4 trillion fossil assets at risk

By

Manuel Berkel

Time and again, climate activists had warned of a setback for global decarbonization since the Russian incursion began. With all the announcements for new gas drilling, LNG terminals, and the return of major oil suppliers, climate goals would become a distant prospect. Now yesterday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented its crucial new partial report on mitigation scenarios for greenhouse gases.

Although the lengthy procedures of the scientific panel do not allow for direct reference to current policy developments, the tendency of the report is clear: Projected CO2 emissions from existing and planned fossil infrastructure would exceed the remaining budget for 1.5 degrees by 150 gigatons of CO2 and exhaust almost all of the margin for 2 degrees of warming – and that is without emissions from other sectors.

However, there are several caveats to consider. The statements largely relate to the use of fossil fuels in power generation and not to heat supply, industry, and transport, where the lion’s share of gas and oil consumption occurs. In addition, to counteract infrastructure emissions, gas and coal-fired power plants could be shut down earlier, have weaker load factors during their lifetime, or be equipped with CO2 capture technologies.

Lock-in through oil and gas infrastructure

But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s warning is clear: “The continued development of fossil fuel infrastructure without CO2 capture will entail a lock-in of greenhouse gas emissions.” If, on the other hand, the global economy consistently restricts fossil fuel use, it would render vast assets unusable. According to the IPCC’s calculations, the cost of these stranded assets is composed partly of the fossil fuels that remain in the ground and partly of the infrastructure that can no longer be used.

Even if global warming were to be limited to 2 degrees, global fossil assets worth $1-4 trillion would become unusable between 2015 and 2050, according to the IPCC. If limited to 1.5 degrees, the values would be even higher. Coal assets could lose value as early as 2030, according to the IPCC. Oil and gas consumption would have to fall by 60 and 70 percent, respectively, by mid-century compared to 2019 to still meet 1.5 degrees. With CO2 capture, gas consumption would only have to fall by 45 percent.

The Group of 46 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) also opposed investments in coal, oil, and gas on Monday. “There can be no new fossil fuel infrastructure,” the group’s head, Madeleine Diouf Sarr, announced on the occasion of the IPCC release.

More coal-fired power plants due to high gas prices

Given exploding gas prices, however, there is a danger that emerging and developing countries, in particular, will invest more in coal, the development organization Germanwatch warned yesterday. “We need more energy transition partnerships between the major industrialized nations and emerging and developing countries,” said managing director Christoph Bals.

For the EU, MEP Peter Liese (CDU), environmental spokesman for the EPP, referred to the goal of becoming independent of Russian energy imports. “In the short term, we have to use more coal and nuclear power; the answer for the future is the Fit for 55 package,” Liese informed.

According to the IPCC report, the world has less and less time to limit greenhouse gas emissions. The peak must be reached by 2025 at the latest. By 2030, emissions would have to fall by 27 to 43 percent compared to 2019 to limit the temperature increase to 1.5-2 degrees.

Viktor Orbán: thorn in Europe’s side

By

Redaktion

After his unexpectedly high election victory, Viktor Orbán can do as he pleases for four more years. His right-wing nationalist Fidesz party won 53.1 percent of the vote, which under Hungarian electoral law is enough for a constitutional two-thirds majority in the parliament. Orbán spoke of “a victory so big you can see it from the moon”.

EU officials, on the other hand, remained resolutely silent. “We do not presume to pass judgment on national elections,” said a spokesperson for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Council President Charles Michel also remained silent. The usual congratulations to the election winner were not forthcoming.

They had probably hoped for a different election outcome. But for his clear victory, Orbán “abused his power as never before”, criticized Katarina Barley (SPD), vice president of the EU Parliament. The EU Commission was partly to blame because it had failed to take action against violations of the rule of law in Hungary. This was a “colossal mistake”, said Barley, who is friends with von der Leyen.

However, there are now signs of a change of course. According to information from Europe.Table, the EU Commission intends to initiate a procedure under the new rule of law mechanism this week. Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn is preparing the necessary steps, according to EU circles.

Months pass before sanctions are imposed

The decision is expected to be made as early as today or tomorrow. However, there is still a long way to go before EU funds are withdrawn. If the Commission really does initiate the multi-stage procedure, it will probably take seven to nine months before sanctions are imposed.

But the new rule-of-law mechanism alone can hardly stop authoritarian behavior. Encouraged by the renewed confirmation at the ballot box, Prime Minister Orbán is likely to continue dismantling democratic rights in Hungary. The independence of the judiciary, the media, science, schools, and culture are likely to be further restricted.

So far, Orbán has been able to use the payments from Brussels for his own power expansion. The close ties between Fidesz and its business friends would be inconceivable without the windfall from Brussels. For a long time, Orbán saw the European Union as an ATM from which he could withdraw ever-larger sums.

That could change, at least to some extent, with the rule of law conditionality. At the beginning of last year, the mechanism came into force to financially punish violations of European values and the EU budget. The Commission is also withholding €7 billion for Hungary from the COVID recovery program. This is hurting the country with its 9.8 million inhabitants.

Right-wing party clears five-percent hurdle

But the pain will hardly stop Orbán. With Orbán’s triumph on Sunday, his power is even more consolidated. The 58-year-old will run for re-election again in four years. Even optimists in Budapest have no doubt about that.

This raises the political question: Does the European Union want to keep Orbán Hungary as a member in perpetuity? Even if the EU treaties do not provide for exclusion, freezing membership could be an option. In the long run, the EU cannot afford to have a member state build an intolerant, authoritarian counter-model to liberal democracy. After twelve years of Orbán, Hungarian democracy is more backdrop than reality.

With the bitter defeat of the opposition six-party alliance “In Unity for Hungary” (Egységben Magyarországert), the already fragile alliance from right to liberal to left is likely to break up. By contrast, the far-right has surprisingly managed to clear the five-percent hurdle with its party “Our Homeland Movement” (Mi Hazánk Mozgalom).

Hungary’s permanent stay also calls into question the EU’s external cohesion. Hungary is the only member state that prevents arms deliveries to Ukraine through its territory. Orbán likes to express contempt for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. It is revealing that Vladimir Putin, of all people, was among the first well-wishers.

German companies welcome in Hungary

However, the Hungarian prime minister’s indirect loyalty to Russia calls into question the Visegrád alliance of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Poland has distanced itself from Hungary because of its stance in the Ukraine war. The governments in Bratislava and Prague no longer hide their incomprehension of Budapest.

Von der Leyen needs the support of a qualified majority among the member states for the rule of law mechanism. The times when tougher measures against Hungary fail because of the Quartet’s veto are probably over since the outbreak of war. Against this backdrop, too, “freezing” Hungary’s EU membership would be an option.

As in the case of Russia, German business has so far made no lasting contribution to weakening Orbán’s “illiberal democracy”. On the contrary, corporations from Volkswagen/Audi to Mercedes and BMW to Bosch and Siemens indirectly support the system.

German carmakers feel very much at home in the country. They appreciate the state support with low taxes and generous subsidies. The government in Budapest and the local level read the German investors’ wishes from their lips. After all, Hungary owes a fifth of all exports to the automotive industry. with Eric Bonse

Aleksandar Vučić wins big in Serbia

In an election campaign video, Aleksandar Vučić even stepped out of a refrigerator in the middle of a Serbian family’s living room. The message was clear: The head of state takes care of everything and is omnipresent. This was also the case on election night. Actually, even in Serbia, the state election commission announces the preliminary results, but because its members had already gone to sleep, Aleksandar Vučič immediately proclaimed himself the winner of the election.

The result is no surprise. The head of state and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) control almost everything in the country. Vučić comes in at 59 percent and the ruling party at 43 percent. Serbia’s Socialist Party (SPS) contributes 11.4 percent as a junior partner, enough for a comfortable majority in parliament. According to the non-governmental organization Freedom House, Serbia, a candidate for EU membership, is only “partially free“. The chronically divided opposition received hardly any airtime in the state-run media or in the private media controlled by trusted journalists.

The EU stands idly by and watches the dismantling of democracy and media freedom. During a recent visit to Belgrade, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the Serbian leadership for its “reforming zeal”. However, Serbia has recently taken more steps backward than forward. Since the start in 2014, 22 of 35 negotiation chapters have been opened, but so far, only two have been closed, and only provisionally at that. In the annual progress reports, Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Olivér Várhelyi, Viktor Orbán’s deputy in Brussels, tries to downplay the steps backward in terms of the rule of law.

‘Iron-clad friendship’ with Beijing

Serbia’s president likes to present himself to visitors from the EU as a pro-European and a guarantor of stability in the region. At the same time, the former propaganda minister of dictator Slobodan Milosevic maintains good relations with Beijing and Moscow. Serbia’s president was one of only a few heads of state and government to travel to the opening of the Olympic Games as recently as February to celebrate the “iron friendship” between the two countries at a meeting with his counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing.

At the same time, Serbia is one of the few countries in Europe that has not yet imposed sanctions against Russia. As an accession candidate, the country would actually be obliged to do so. MEPs from the liberal Renew Europe group have therefore called on the Commission to suspend accession negotiations with Belgrade and also to freeze the associated funding. His government will not join the West’s “anti-Russian hysteria”, said Vučić’s interior minister.

Serbia is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas. Gazprom has also been the majority shareholder in Serbia’s formerly state-owned oil company NIS since 2008. The dependence has been further cemented since the opening in 2020 of the Turkstream pipeline financed by the Russian gas company. Last fall, Aleksandar Vučić traveled to Sochi for a meeting with Vladimir Putin to ask for lower gas prices in view of the elections.

Corruption allegations fade into the background

China’s and Russia’s authoritarian regimes are more popular in Serbia than the EU, even though European companies are by far the most important trade and investment partners, and Belgrade, as a candidate country, benefits from billions in remittances from Brussels. Swing politics has paid off for Serbia’s president. In the election campaign, he ran on the slogan “Peace, Stability, Vučić” and presented himself as a guarantor of stability in uncertain times.

Chronic allegations of corruption or rumors of links between close associates and the organized crime milieu receded into the background. Similar to the environmental protests against a planned lithium mine, where the government withdrew the license from the British-Australian company Rio Tinto at the last moment and was thus able to defuse the conflict in time for the election. Stephan Israel

Elon Musk becomes Twitter’s largest single shareholder

For years, Elon Musk has had a love-hate relationship with Twitter. On the one hand, the entrepreneur uses his popularity on the platform for self-dramatization – so much so that it has already landed him in trouble with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. On the other hand, Musk is regularly dissatisfied with Twitter’s corporate policy. Musk has now acquired 9.2 percent of the shares in the company, making him the largest and most influential single shareholder.

When the Tesla and SpaceX founder asked his Twitter followers in late March whether they thought the social media platform was sufficiently committed to free speech, 2 million Twitter users cast their votes – 70.4 percent said: No. “Free speech is essential to a functioning democracy.,” Musk had written about the poll, and added as a postscript, “The consequences of this poll will be important. Please vote carefully.” The eccentric billionaire added the following day, “Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy.” And then publicly asked, also on Twitter of course, whether a new platform was needed.

Musk has long voiced criticism of Twitter’s behavior regarding account and content suspensions. Musk sees himself as an advocate of radical freedom of speech – so much so that Donald Trump Jr. asked him to please found an alternative platform after the former US President Donald Trump was blocked a year ago. This now exists in the form of Gettr – albeit without Musk’s official involvement. And Gettr, the Twitter clone from the Trump universe, has nowhere near the number of users that Twitter has. Musk’s now announced share purchase could now get the company into some trouble.

Twitter against the Network Enforcement Act

This is because Twitter must comply with legislation around the globe that imposes content moderation obligations on the platform. The platform is blocked in Russia, China, Iran, and Myanmar, among other countries. But Twitter is also repeatedly blocked by governments in other countries, for example, for seven months in Nigeria until January 2022, after the company removed a post by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari in accordance with its own rules. In the end, Twitter submitted to the demands of the government in Abuja.

As a rule, however, government agencies tend to demand that unpopular content or content prohibited under local laws be removed. Twitter, for example, is also subject to Germany’s Network Enforcement Act and would also be subject to the rules of the Digital Services Act in the future. In their last known draft stage, these would potentially cover all national expression of opinion crimes in the EU and more extensive content removal obligations than the German Network Enforcement Act (NetzDG).

At the same time, there is a debate in the USA about the extent to which platforms such as Twitter and Facebook should continue to be exempt from liability for illegal content under Section 230. This debate has been going on in particular since the events surrounding the Capitol in January 2021. Since then, platform operators have been accused of failing to prevent calls for violent overthrow or even actively promoting them with their interaction-optimized algorithms.

Musk, the self-proclaimed free speech activist, is now getting involved in this regulatory debate as a major shareholder in the platform – outcome uncertain, more tweets certain. fst

Habeck puts Gazprom Germania under state control

German Economics Minister Robert Habeck is intervening in the ownership of a gas company with an instrument that has never been used before to secure gas supplies. On Monday, the Green politician placed the German operations of the Russian gas company Gazprom under the trusteeship of the Federal Network Agency. The federal authority takes over all voting rights from business shares in Gazprom Germania for a limited period until September 30. This is not yet equivalent to expropriation.

But the authority is thus authorized to issue instructions to the management. Gazprom Germania operates gas trading and Germany’s largest natural gas storage facility in Rehden through its subsidiaries Wingas and Astora. Habeck has recourse to a paragraph in the Foreign Trade and Payments Act.

Accordingly, the establishment of a trusteeship is possible to avert a threat to public order and security. “The German government is doing what is necessary to ensure security of supply in Germany,” Habeck said, referring to the Russian presidential office in Moscow. “This includes not exposing energy infrastructures in Germany to arbitrary decisions by the Kremlin.”

Habeck: security of supply guaranteed

Habeck justified the state’s intervention on the grounds of unclear ownership of Gazprom Germania and the fact that his ministry had not given the necessary consent to the acquisition. The ministry had become aware of the indirect acquisition by an unknown company JSC Palmary and Gazprom export business services LLC.

It is unclear who is economically and legally behind these companies. The acquirer had also ordered the liquidation of Gazprom Germania, which was not legal because the acquisition had not been approved. The Russian parent company had announced on Friday that it was giving up Gazprom Germania, without giving details.

The trusteeship now also gives the Federal Network Agency the legal power to instruct greater filling of gas storage facilities, provided gas is available for this purpose. A reaction from Russia was still pending on Monday evening. rtr

Austrian gas hub launches platform for green gases

In the future, the Austrian natural gas trading platform Central European Gas Hub (CEGH) will trade green gases on the newly created CEGH GreenGas Platform. The platform will allow the purchase or sale of biomethane guarantee of origin (GoO) or biomethane with or without guarantees of origin. As soon as green hydrogen is available on the market, it will also be tradable on the platform, CEGH announced on Monday.

The CEGH GreenGas Platform will be gradually expanded to include green gas trading in other Central and Eastern European countries, according to the website announcement. CEGH is working with EEX, the European energy exchange in Leipzig, to do this. Green gases such as biogas and green hydrogen are expected to play an important role in decarbonizing the energy system. klm

Battery manufacturer CATL increases production capacity

Chinese battery manufacturer CATL will ramp up production at its new plant in Arnstadt, Thuringia, in the second half of the year. “We are on the home stretch,” said European President Matthias Zentgraf in Arnstadt on Monday while receiving an operating permit from the state of Thuringia for the first expansion stage of the plant.

It has an initial capacity of 8 gigawatt-hours. That corresponds to an annual capacity of batteries for about 120,000 EVs, Zentgraf told dpa. The plant will supply all major German automakers with battery cells for their EVs.

According to him, 1500 employees from the region are to be hired by the end of the year. In addition, there would be several hundred specialists from China who would be deployed during the installation of the production facilities and in the start-up phase of production but who would not stay permanently. Already on board are about 500 workers from the region.

According to Economics Minister Wolfgang Tiefensee (SPD), the Chinese company’s investment decision had a signal effect for eastern Germany as an industrial location. Intel, for example, had also referred to CATL in its decision in favor of Magdeburg. The Federal Government Commissioner for Eastern Germany, Carsten Schneider, called the battery factory an outstanding project in eastern Germany. The good reputation of the administrations, which decided quickly, also contributed to the settlement, Schneider said. dpa

CO2 limits for cars: key to climate protection and energy security

Michael Müller-Görnert

The war in Ukraine is a frightening reminder of the impact of our dependence on fossil fuels. For too long, we have relied on oil and gas to keep flowing, driving consumption ever higher – regardless of where the raw materials come from. Given the sharp rise in energy prices and the threat of supply bottlenecks, it’s clear that things can’t go on like this.

The same recipes that ensure climate protection – the expansion of renewables and greater efficiency – will also lead us out of the energy crisis and dependence on oil. In the transport sector, this means moving away from oil as quickly as possible and toward electric drives, economical and efficient vehicles, and, above all, switching to buses, trains, bicycles, and walking.

The focus is on road traffic. It is responsible for around a quarter of all greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and is still over 90 percent dependent on oil. CO2 emissions in this sector have risen instead of falling over the past 30 years. The main reason for this is that more and more cars are getting bigger and more powerful.

The EU has been limiting the CO2 emissions of new cars since 2009 to reduce fuel consumption. The last time car manufacturers had to meet these limits was last year, and further limits will come into force in 2025 and 2030. The limits do not apply to individual vehicles but to the fleet of new cars in the target year. Although the average fuel consumption of new cars has also fallen since then, CO2 fleet limits for passenger cars are crucial as the EU’s central instrument for the drive turnaround.

One in ten new cars is electric

Regulation is largely responsible for the fact that the share of EVs in new registrations increased significantly last year. In the EU, one in ten new cars was purely electric. In Germany, the number even doubled compared to 2020, and by the end of 2021, the share of new registrations was over 20 percent. The EV is increasingly displacing gasoline and diesel engines, accelerating the momentum away from the internal combustion engine. What’s more, many countries have now set phase-out dates for internal combustion engines. More and more automakers are announcing that they will soon be switching their production completely to purely battery-electric cars.

Against this backdrop, the EU Commission presented a draft for tightening up the CO2 fleet limits for cars in July 2021 as part of its “Fit for 55” package. The 2030 target of reducing CO2 emissions by an average of 37.5 percent compared with 2021 was raised to 55 percent. From 2035, new cars are to emit no more CO2. By contrast, the limit value for 2025 of 15 percent remained untouched.

A positive aspect of the new EU proposal is that, for the first time, an EU-wide end date for the phase-out of internal combustion engines is to be specified. This gives manufacturers planning certainty and accelerates the switch to e-drives. However, 2035 is too late, and the targets for 2030 are far too weak. This jeopardizes the achievement of the EU climate target as well as the national climate targets, as no additional CO2 reductions will be made by 2030.

The consultations in Brussels have begun. Traditionally, it is the European Parliament that wants to make the targets stricter. The lead rapporteur, Dutch right-wing liberal Jan Huitema, has proposed reducing average emissions from new cars by 25 percent as early as 2025, raising the target for 2030 from 55 percent to 75 percent, and introducing an additional interim target of 45 percent for 2027. It reaffirms the goal of zero CO2 emissions from new cars from 2035.

Associations call for stricter interim targets

Federal Environment Minister Steffi Lemke also wanted to propose similar specifications for the German position but was thwarted by her cabinet colleague Volker Wissing and Chancellor Olaf Scholz. With reference to the coalition agreement, only the EU Commission’s draft is to be supported. The German position is progress compared to the past – but it is not sufficient given the new situation.

We need to change course now. The coming years are crucial for climate protection and for moving away from oil. That is why the VCD and other German environmental associations are calling for an interim target of minus 15 percent to be introduced as early as next year, for the target for 2025 to be raised to 45 percent, and for annual interim targets to be set thereafter until 2030. According to our proposal, new cars should emit zero emissions from 2030.

Ambitious European passenger car limits are a decisive lever for more climate protection in transport. At the same time, they are indispensable for making us independent of oil and despotic states more quickly. The German government should realize this and reconsider its position. The reference to the coalition agreement is no longer appropriate given the distortions caused by the Ukraine war.