Is Mario Draghi still up to something? The former ECB chief, Italian prime minister of a technocratic government and head of the Italian National Bank is sounding out whether he will throw his hat into the ring for one of the EU’s top jobs. This is being heard in Brussels and across the Alps. Although Draghi is already 76, he says he still has the confidence to take on one of the many leadership tasks that the heads of state and government may decide on as a package after the European elections.
Just like Ursula von der Leyen in 2019, Super Mario could suddenly play a role in the big personnel poker game – additionally, he is being pushed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She is also the head of the conservative ECR party family, gets on very well with Draghi, and could propose him as Commission President.
It has already been asked discreetly in the Élysée, and Emmanuel Macron has at least not said “non”. The Greek Prime Minister could also gain something from the appointment: Kyriakos Mitsotakis is aiming to succeed Charles Michel at the head of the Council, he said. If Draghi, who has no party affiliation, is appointed, the Christian Democrat Mitsotakis’ path to the Council is not blocked.
This personnel speculation is linked to a substantive position. The southern member states – and France is one of them – are already calling for a credit-financed economic stimulus program in the next mandate. Draghi is the one who could make this wish his program.
For Germany, however, a Commission President who wants to take on more debt in Europe would be bad news: the Federal Constitutional Court had already waved through the €750 billion Covid recovery fund only on the condition that it remained a one-off exception.
And what about Ursula von der Leyen? For one thing, she has not yet declared that she will run again. Secondly, it cannot be ruled out that she will be called to NATO by US President Joe Biden in the summer, when the results of the European elections are known. Would she turn down the call to become the first woman to head the defense alliance?
The German government has reservations about EU anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese EVs. “Countervailing duties by the EU could protect the EU industry, but could also have a negative impact”, according to the German government’s statement on the EU Commission’s 2024 work program, which is classified as confidential and available to Table.Media. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had announced an anti-subsidy investigation into battery electric vehicles from China. At the same time, she suggested that there were indications of illegal subsidies. It is therefore considered a matter of time before the Commission imposes anti-dumping duties on electric cars from China.
The German government fears that the tariffs will have negative consequences for German manufacturers. Without mentioning the German companies directly, the statement warns of negative consequences “both directly (for EU manufacturers in China that export to the EU) and indirectly (in the event of any retaliatory measures by China)”.
The background to this is that German brands such as Mercedes, BMW and, VW make up to 40 percent of their sales in China and have built up large production capacities in China themselves. French manufacturers, on the other hand, are not active in the Chinese market but have long been calling for EU tariffs on EVs from China because Chinese brands are competing massively with EVs from French manufacturers in the EU and are taking market share away from them.
The German government calls for an “open-ended investigation in accordance with the rules” in the course of the anti-subsidy procedure and “that the respective interests are taken into account within the framework of the Union’s interests”. The member states should be “closely involved in the procedure in view of the political sensitivity”. The letter also contains a clear criticism of the Commission: the anti-subsidy investigation has the “special feature that it was initiated ex officio and therefore not on the basis of a request from an EU producer”. The message from the German government is therefore that the Commission allowed itself to be pressured by the French government.
The German government is disappointed with the Green Deal. “ However, the German government very much regrets that the Commission is currently not pursuing important projects of the Farm-to-Fork Strategy”, the paper continues. Unlike in previous work programs, the “comprehensive revision of European animal welfare legislation and the creation of a legal framework for sustainable food systems (FSFS)” is no longer planned. However, corresponding initiatives are urgently needed in order to advance society’s expectations for sustainable agricultural and food systems towards greater animal welfare and sustainability.
The German government also criticizes the fact that the Commission once again does not include the food labeling projects from the Farm-to-Fork Strategy in the work program. For the German government, the legislative proposals already announced by the Commission for the end of 2022 on extended nutritional labeling, origin labeling, date markings, nutrient profiles, and the labeling of alcoholic beverages have “very high priority”. Although a revision of EU law on food contact materials was also announced long ago as part of the farm-to-fork strategy, the Commission has still not delivered, the paper from the Chancellery criticizes.
The German government also has reservations about industrial policy. In contrast to the Commission, it wants to continue to rely on subsidies for the decarbonization of industry. It wants to extend the relevant chapters in the temporary TCTF framework until the end of 2027. Sections 2.5, 2.6, and 2.8 are currently limited until 2025. Just a few weeks ago, the Commission decided against extending them. Only the option for aid for increased energy costs was extended by six months until mid-2024.
It is unclear whether the German government’s response on this topic was formulated before the Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling on the German Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) or whether the German government is speculating on an easing of the budget situation after 2025. Contribution Manuel Berkel
It is supposed to be a “strategic” summit with groundbreaking decisions on Ukraine and EU funding. But two weeks before the meeting of heads of state and government in Brussels, Council President Charles Michel is struggling with unexpected problems. Hungary’s head of government Viktor Orbán is threatening to veto new financial aid for Ukraine. He also wants to speak out against the opening of accession talks with Ukraine at the summit in mid-December. “We are dealing with a completely premature proposal”, said Orbán’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas, on Thursday.
A visit to Budapest has brought no rapprochement. Orbán and Michel spoke for more than two hours in an attempt to break the deadlock. Afterward, Orbán spoke of a “useful meeting” – which in diplomatic language means nothing more than that opinions were exchanged without any rapprochement. Michel kept a low profile; he didn’t even send a tweet.
They remain in contact, said an EU spokeswoman after the crisis meeting. Michel needs Orbán’s approval in order to open the accession negotiations recommended by the EU Commission. However, Orbán is threatening to say no and is calling for a strategic debate on the war in Ukraine, the sanctions against Russia, and the progress of EU integration to be held first.
Such a fundamental debate has already taken place several times – from the special summit in Versailles in March 2022 to the summit in Granada in October 2023. However, Orbán points to the new situation that has arisen as a result of the failure of the counter-offensive of Ukraine. The sanctions have also failed to achieve their goal – while Germany’s economy is in crisis, Russia is growing again.
Orbán addresses important issues, according to the Council. However, his demonstrative closeness to Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin – the two met at the Silk Road summit in Beijing in October – casts doubt on his impartiality. His real motive is probably to force the release of €13 billion from the EU budget, EU diplomats suspect.
The EU Commission had frozen the funds due to rule of law problems in Hungary. Last week, it surprisingly released €900 million. More money could follow soon, it was announced in Brussels on Thursday. There has been “significant progress” in the negotiations with the EU Commission, said an EU source who did not wish to be named. A payment of up to €10 billion would be conceivable.
However, it is unclear whether further EU funds will flow in time for the EU summit on Dec. 14 and 15 – and whether Orbán will be satisfied with this. So far, he has used the dispute over the money as a lever to put pressure on summit leader Michel. Orbán is benefiting from the fact that the mood in some EU countries is turning against Ukraine – and that the summit agenda also harbors other problems.
Robert Fico from Slovakia and Geert Wilders from the Netherlands share Orbán’s reservations about Michel’s Ukraine course. Some other heads of government are putting on the brakes because they fear being taken advantage of. The green light for accession talks would also mean billions in new EU financial injections for Kyiv. However, there is no money for other tasks.
Germany, of all countries, could become a stumbling block. The largest EU country is in favor of both the start of accession talks and new financial aid for Ukraine. It therefore supports Michel’s summit agenda. In his most recent government statement, Chancellor Olaf Scholz even described aid for Ukraine as “existential” and hinted at long-term financial commitments.
However, Berlin only wants to pay for Ukraine – and not for the common asylum policy or the debt service of the Corona Recovery Fund, as proposed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Berlin rejects an increase of €66 billion to the current seven-year budget and is calling for budget reserves to be used: The German budget crisis does not allow for special treatment.
This, in turn, is attracting the attention of countries such as Italy, which, like Germany, cannot do much with Orbán’s veto threat, but does not want to lose out either. Several compromise proposals from the Spanish EU Presidency have so far failed to resolve the dispute. Interests could clash at the EU summit in December.
Wild rumors and recriminations are already circulating in Brussels. Von der Leyen has made a strategic mistake by linking the Ukraine aid to an increase in the EU budget, writes Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe at the consulting firm Eurasia Group, on X. This mistake could even cost her a second term at the helm of the EU.
Others doubt the negotiating skills of summit leader Michel. But Chancellor Scholz is also facing criticism. EU policy threatens to become collateral damage to Germany’s home-made budget problems. The fact that Scholz did not even manage to convince the domestic audience in Berlin and show a way forward is adding to the uncertainty in Brussels.
What happens now? Michel will have to reschedule, if all else fails. There is no reason for “pessimism”, says an EU diplomat. However, it is quite conceivable that no decision to open accession talks will be made in December. Due to the resistance from Hungary, but also because of outstanding reforms in Ukraine, the EU could be satisfied with a non-binding positive signal.
The EU Commission does not want to report on outstanding reforms until March. These include the strengthening of minority rights, which the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe is also demanding – and which Hungary has loudly called for. In addition, the so-called negotiating framework, which sets out the guidelines and principles for the talks with Kyiv, is still missing for the start of accession negotiations. Both could prompt the heads of state and government to postpone a formal decision.
The controversial increase in the EU budget could also be put on the back burner. After all, Germany is not alone in its concerns. Several northern and eastern European countries are also keeping their wallets shut. Meanwhile, countries such as Italy and Greece are demanding more money for the common refugee policy. The EU states could block each other.
Orbán has stirred up a hornet’s nest – and exposed long-simmering contradictions and conflicts in EU policy. Michel does not have much time left to limit the damage and save his summit agenda.
The presidency of COP28 opened the conference on the first day with a strategically important success. Surprisingly, the opening plenary session on Thursday afternoon adopted the long-disputed details for the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF). At the same time, several countries, led by the UAE and Germany, declared their willingness to fill the LDF with a total of around $400 million to date.
The first rumors about the “double whammy” of the presidency had already been circulating the day before. Participants said that the decision on the LDF and its financing in particular had only been made on the eve and morning of the conference. “There was a lot of phoning around before everything was clear”, they said. The deal was also prepared by a visit to Abu Dhabi in October by the State Secretary for Development, Jochen Flasbarth.
According to the delegation, it became clear that Germany and the UAE were both very interested in good news at the start. The UAE wanted a positive start for its prestigious conference. Germany was very interested in the UAE, which is considered a non-industrialized country according to UN criteria, being the first country in the history of the UN Climate Convention to pay into a UN pot for it. Previously, the strict view was that this was only a matter for industrialized countries.
This is why the first plenary session of COP28 also became a small donor round for the LDF. The fund, which will be hosted by the World Bank, needs at least $200 million as start-up capital. By Thursday evening, pledges had been made:
The European caravan is making its way to Dubai for COP28. “It’s the biggest COP ever, around 70,000 participants are expected in total, that’s huge”, says a veteran of the UN climate negotiations. Among these 70,000 participants, the EU will also be strongly represented: the Parliament, the Council, and the Commission.
No fewer than six Commissioners will be attending, in addition to the new Climate Commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra from the Netherlands. The President of the Commission is already on site and will remain there until tomorrow. A delegation of 14 Members of the European Parliament, led by CDU politician Peter Liese, will also be present. The Council will be represented by the Spanish Environment Minister, Teresa Ribera. Finally, the European Union will also be cultivating its soft power with a pavilion in which around 100 events will take place.
Climate Commissioner Hoekstra is expected in Dubai from Dec. 6. In other words, from the time when the negotiations enter the hot phase. This is the time when the ministers arrive and take over from the diplomats to negotiate the most controversial points regarding the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Broken down to European level, this is the equivalent of the political trilogue that follows the technical trilogue. A first round of negotiations at ministerial level is planned for Dec. 8.
Well, if there’s one thing Europeans are good at, it’s negotiating. Everything is negotiated in Brussels, all the time and everywhere. As we know, the trilogues are only the visible part of an elaborate process that was set in motion weeks before. Negotiating with 27 member states is exhausting. This experience of the EU representatives is useful in Dubai. After all, 199 parties are negotiating there. (In United Nations jargon, we do not speak of countries or states, but of parties. The acronym COP stands for “Conference of the Parties”).
The EU is therefore needed by its non-European partners to help find compromises. Compromises need to be found between the countries of the southern and northern hemispheres and between the interests of the USA and China. Easy-peasy. But some in the climate bubble are wondering whether the new EU climate commissioner will conduct the negotiations well. After all, he has only been in office for just under two months and, unlike his predecessor, the charismatic and controversial Frans Timmermans, has no experience with international climate negotiations, according to critics.
Timmermans had an extensive network, he was so involved in the international negotiations that it was quite clear that he was conducting the negotiations on behalf of Europe, said Dutch MEP Bas Eickhout (Greens). This meant that Hoekstra had to rely more on the ministerial side – and that was no bad thing, Eickhout believes.
As a former foreign and finance minister, he is well acquainted with the Council. “His experience as Finance Minister in the Netherlands can be an advantage in the discussions on the technical issues surrounding the Loss and Damage Fund”, says Linda Kalcher, Executive Director of the Strategic Perspectives think tank in Brussels.
“Hoekstra is not a newcomer“, says the COP veteran quoted above. On the contrary, he will form a nice tandem with Spanish Environment Minister Teresa Ribera. The latter will represent the European Union at COP28, as she holds the rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers. Teresa Ribera is familiar with international climate negotiations. She has a reputation as an extremely well-connected and respected negotiator. So the European diplomatic climate machine is running. Now she has to deliver.
You can read all the texts on COP28 published so far here.
Is Mario Draghi still up to something? The former ECB chief, Italian prime minister of a technocratic government and head of the Italian National Bank is sounding out whether he will throw his hat into the ring for one of the EU’s top jobs. This is being heard in Brussels and across the Alps. Although Draghi is already 76, he says he still has the confidence to take on one of the many leadership tasks that the heads of state and government may decide on as a package after the European elections.
Just like Ursula von der Leyen in 2019, Super Mario could suddenly play a role in the big personnel poker game – additionally, he is being pushed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. She is also the head of the conservative ECR party family, gets on very well with Draghi, and could propose him as Commission President.
It has already been asked discreetly in the Élysée, and Emmanuel Macron has at least not said “non”. The Greek Prime Minister could also gain something from the appointment: Kyriakos Mitsotakis is aiming to succeed Charles Michel at the head of the Council, he said. If Draghi, who has no party affiliation, is appointed, the Christian Democrat Mitsotakis’ path to the Council is not blocked.
This personnel speculation is linked to a substantive position. The southern member states – and France is one of them – are already calling for a credit-financed economic stimulus program in the next mandate. Draghi is the one who could make this wish his program.
For Germany, however, a Commission President who wants to take on more debt in Europe would be bad news: the Federal Constitutional Court had already waved through the €750 billion Covid recovery fund only on the condition that it remained a one-off exception.
And what about Ursula von der Leyen? For one thing, she has not yet declared that she will run again. Secondly, it cannot be ruled out that she will be called to NATO by US President Joe Biden in the summer, when the results of the European elections are known. Would she turn down the call to become the first woman to head the defense alliance?
The German government has reservations about EU anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese EVs. “Countervailing duties by the EU could protect the EU industry, but could also have a negative impact”, according to the German government’s statement on the EU Commission’s 2024 work program, which is classified as confidential and available to Table.Media. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had announced an anti-subsidy investigation into battery electric vehicles from China. At the same time, she suggested that there were indications of illegal subsidies. It is therefore considered a matter of time before the Commission imposes anti-dumping duties on electric cars from China.
The German government fears that the tariffs will have negative consequences for German manufacturers. Without mentioning the German companies directly, the statement warns of negative consequences “both directly (for EU manufacturers in China that export to the EU) and indirectly (in the event of any retaliatory measures by China)”.
The background to this is that German brands such as Mercedes, BMW and, VW make up to 40 percent of their sales in China and have built up large production capacities in China themselves. French manufacturers, on the other hand, are not active in the Chinese market but have long been calling for EU tariffs on EVs from China because Chinese brands are competing massively with EVs from French manufacturers in the EU and are taking market share away from them.
The German government calls for an “open-ended investigation in accordance with the rules” in the course of the anti-subsidy procedure and “that the respective interests are taken into account within the framework of the Union’s interests”. The member states should be “closely involved in the procedure in view of the political sensitivity”. The letter also contains a clear criticism of the Commission: the anti-subsidy investigation has the “special feature that it was initiated ex officio and therefore not on the basis of a request from an EU producer”. The message from the German government is therefore that the Commission allowed itself to be pressured by the French government.
The German government is disappointed with the Green Deal. “ However, the German government very much regrets that the Commission is currently not pursuing important projects of the Farm-to-Fork Strategy”, the paper continues. Unlike in previous work programs, the “comprehensive revision of European animal welfare legislation and the creation of a legal framework for sustainable food systems (FSFS)” is no longer planned. However, corresponding initiatives are urgently needed in order to advance society’s expectations for sustainable agricultural and food systems towards greater animal welfare and sustainability.
The German government also criticizes the fact that the Commission once again does not include the food labeling projects from the Farm-to-Fork Strategy in the work program. For the German government, the legislative proposals already announced by the Commission for the end of 2022 on extended nutritional labeling, origin labeling, date markings, nutrient profiles, and the labeling of alcoholic beverages have “very high priority”. Although a revision of EU law on food contact materials was also announced long ago as part of the farm-to-fork strategy, the Commission has still not delivered, the paper from the Chancellery criticizes.
The German government also has reservations about industrial policy. In contrast to the Commission, it wants to continue to rely on subsidies for the decarbonization of industry. It wants to extend the relevant chapters in the temporary TCTF framework until the end of 2027. Sections 2.5, 2.6, and 2.8 are currently limited until 2025. Just a few weeks ago, the Commission decided against extending them. Only the option for aid for increased energy costs was extended by six months until mid-2024.
It is unclear whether the German government’s response on this topic was formulated before the Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling on the German Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) or whether the German government is speculating on an easing of the budget situation after 2025. Contribution Manuel Berkel
It is supposed to be a “strategic” summit with groundbreaking decisions on Ukraine and EU funding. But two weeks before the meeting of heads of state and government in Brussels, Council President Charles Michel is struggling with unexpected problems. Hungary’s head of government Viktor Orbán is threatening to veto new financial aid for Ukraine. He also wants to speak out against the opening of accession talks with Ukraine at the summit in mid-December. “We are dealing with a completely premature proposal”, said Orbán’s chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas, on Thursday.
A visit to Budapest has brought no rapprochement. Orbán and Michel spoke for more than two hours in an attempt to break the deadlock. Afterward, Orbán spoke of a “useful meeting” – which in diplomatic language means nothing more than that opinions were exchanged without any rapprochement. Michel kept a low profile; he didn’t even send a tweet.
They remain in contact, said an EU spokeswoman after the crisis meeting. Michel needs Orbán’s approval in order to open the accession negotiations recommended by the EU Commission. However, Orbán is threatening to say no and is calling for a strategic debate on the war in Ukraine, the sanctions against Russia, and the progress of EU integration to be held first.
Such a fundamental debate has already taken place several times – from the special summit in Versailles in March 2022 to the summit in Granada in October 2023. However, Orbán points to the new situation that has arisen as a result of the failure of the counter-offensive of Ukraine. The sanctions have also failed to achieve their goal – while Germany’s economy is in crisis, Russia is growing again.
Orbán addresses important issues, according to the Council. However, his demonstrative closeness to Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin – the two met at the Silk Road summit in Beijing in October – casts doubt on his impartiality. His real motive is probably to force the release of €13 billion from the EU budget, EU diplomats suspect.
The EU Commission had frozen the funds due to rule of law problems in Hungary. Last week, it surprisingly released €900 million. More money could follow soon, it was announced in Brussels on Thursday. There has been “significant progress” in the negotiations with the EU Commission, said an EU source who did not wish to be named. A payment of up to €10 billion would be conceivable.
However, it is unclear whether further EU funds will flow in time for the EU summit on Dec. 14 and 15 – and whether Orbán will be satisfied with this. So far, he has used the dispute over the money as a lever to put pressure on summit leader Michel. Orbán is benefiting from the fact that the mood in some EU countries is turning against Ukraine – and that the summit agenda also harbors other problems.
Robert Fico from Slovakia and Geert Wilders from the Netherlands share Orbán’s reservations about Michel’s Ukraine course. Some other heads of government are putting on the brakes because they fear being taken advantage of. The green light for accession talks would also mean billions in new EU financial injections for Kyiv. However, there is no money for other tasks.
Germany, of all countries, could become a stumbling block. The largest EU country is in favor of both the start of accession talks and new financial aid for Ukraine. It therefore supports Michel’s summit agenda. In his most recent government statement, Chancellor Olaf Scholz even described aid for Ukraine as “existential” and hinted at long-term financial commitments.
However, Berlin only wants to pay for Ukraine – and not for the common asylum policy or the debt service of the Corona Recovery Fund, as proposed by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Berlin rejects an increase of €66 billion to the current seven-year budget and is calling for budget reserves to be used: The German budget crisis does not allow for special treatment.
This, in turn, is attracting the attention of countries such as Italy, which, like Germany, cannot do much with Orbán’s veto threat, but does not want to lose out either. Several compromise proposals from the Spanish EU Presidency have so far failed to resolve the dispute. Interests could clash at the EU summit in December.
Wild rumors and recriminations are already circulating in Brussels. Von der Leyen has made a strategic mistake by linking the Ukraine aid to an increase in the EU budget, writes Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe at the consulting firm Eurasia Group, on X. This mistake could even cost her a second term at the helm of the EU.
Others doubt the negotiating skills of summit leader Michel. But Chancellor Scholz is also facing criticism. EU policy threatens to become collateral damage to Germany’s home-made budget problems. The fact that Scholz did not even manage to convince the domestic audience in Berlin and show a way forward is adding to the uncertainty in Brussels.
What happens now? Michel will have to reschedule, if all else fails. There is no reason for “pessimism”, says an EU diplomat. However, it is quite conceivable that no decision to open accession talks will be made in December. Due to the resistance from Hungary, but also because of outstanding reforms in Ukraine, the EU could be satisfied with a non-binding positive signal.
The EU Commission does not want to report on outstanding reforms until March. These include the strengthening of minority rights, which the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe is also demanding – and which Hungary has loudly called for. In addition, the so-called negotiating framework, which sets out the guidelines and principles for the talks with Kyiv, is still missing for the start of accession negotiations. Both could prompt the heads of state and government to postpone a formal decision.
The controversial increase in the EU budget could also be put on the back burner. After all, Germany is not alone in its concerns. Several northern and eastern European countries are also keeping their wallets shut. Meanwhile, countries such as Italy and Greece are demanding more money for the common refugee policy. The EU states could block each other.
Orbán has stirred up a hornet’s nest – and exposed long-simmering contradictions and conflicts in EU policy. Michel does not have much time left to limit the damage and save his summit agenda.
The presidency of COP28 opened the conference on the first day with a strategically important success. Surprisingly, the opening plenary session on Thursday afternoon adopted the long-disputed details for the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF). At the same time, several countries, led by the UAE and Germany, declared their willingness to fill the LDF with a total of around $400 million to date.
The first rumors about the “double whammy” of the presidency had already been circulating the day before. Participants said that the decision on the LDF and its financing in particular had only been made on the eve and morning of the conference. “There was a lot of phoning around before everything was clear”, they said. The deal was also prepared by a visit to Abu Dhabi in October by the State Secretary for Development, Jochen Flasbarth.
According to the delegation, it became clear that Germany and the UAE were both very interested in good news at the start. The UAE wanted a positive start for its prestigious conference. Germany was very interested in the UAE, which is considered a non-industrialized country according to UN criteria, being the first country in the history of the UN Climate Convention to pay into a UN pot for it. Previously, the strict view was that this was only a matter for industrialized countries.
This is why the first plenary session of COP28 also became a small donor round for the LDF. The fund, which will be hosted by the World Bank, needs at least $200 million as start-up capital. By Thursday evening, pledges had been made:
The European caravan is making its way to Dubai for COP28. “It’s the biggest COP ever, around 70,000 participants are expected in total, that’s huge”, says a veteran of the UN climate negotiations. Among these 70,000 participants, the EU will also be strongly represented: the Parliament, the Council, and the Commission.
No fewer than six Commissioners will be attending, in addition to the new Climate Commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra from the Netherlands. The President of the Commission is already on site and will remain there until tomorrow. A delegation of 14 Members of the European Parliament, led by CDU politician Peter Liese, will also be present. The Council will be represented by the Spanish Environment Minister, Teresa Ribera. Finally, the European Union will also be cultivating its soft power with a pavilion in which around 100 events will take place.
Climate Commissioner Hoekstra is expected in Dubai from Dec. 6. In other words, from the time when the negotiations enter the hot phase. This is the time when the ministers arrive and take over from the diplomats to negotiate the most controversial points regarding the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Broken down to European level, this is the equivalent of the political trilogue that follows the technical trilogue. A first round of negotiations at ministerial level is planned for Dec. 8.
Well, if there’s one thing Europeans are good at, it’s negotiating. Everything is negotiated in Brussels, all the time and everywhere. As we know, the trilogues are only the visible part of an elaborate process that was set in motion weeks before. Negotiating with 27 member states is exhausting. This experience of the EU representatives is useful in Dubai. After all, 199 parties are negotiating there. (In United Nations jargon, we do not speak of countries or states, but of parties. The acronym COP stands for “Conference of the Parties”).
The EU is therefore needed by its non-European partners to help find compromises. Compromises need to be found between the countries of the southern and northern hemispheres and between the interests of the USA and China. Easy-peasy. But some in the climate bubble are wondering whether the new EU climate commissioner will conduct the negotiations well. After all, he has only been in office for just under two months and, unlike his predecessor, the charismatic and controversial Frans Timmermans, has no experience with international climate negotiations, according to critics.
Timmermans had an extensive network, he was so involved in the international negotiations that it was quite clear that he was conducting the negotiations on behalf of Europe, said Dutch MEP Bas Eickhout (Greens). This meant that Hoekstra had to rely more on the ministerial side – and that was no bad thing, Eickhout believes.
As a former foreign and finance minister, he is well acquainted with the Council. “His experience as Finance Minister in the Netherlands can be an advantage in the discussions on the technical issues surrounding the Loss and Damage Fund”, says Linda Kalcher, Executive Director of the Strategic Perspectives think tank in Brussels.
“Hoekstra is not a newcomer“, says the COP veteran quoted above. On the contrary, he will form a nice tandem with Spanish Environment Minister Teresa Ribera. The latter will represent the European Union at COP28, as she holds the rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers. Teresa Ribera is familiar with international climate negotiations. She has a reputation as an extremely well-connected and respected negotiator. So the European diplomatic climate machine is running. Now she has to deliver.
You can read all the texts on COP28 published so far here.
