The foreign ministers of the EU states have agreed on a joint supply of ammunition to Ukraine. They want to provide one million artillery shells for defense against Russia over the next twelve months. The aim is also to end the imbalance between Russia and Ukraine: Russia fires between 20,000 and 60,000 artillery shells per day, the EU estimates, while the Ukrainian army can fire a maximum of between 2,000 and 6,000 shells. Stephan Israel knows the pitfalls of this ambitious plan.
The presentation of the IPCC report was accompanied by dystopian warnings. The climate time bomb is ticking, warned UN Secretary-General António Guterres, and humanity is “skating on thin ice”. But he avoided spreading doomsday sentiment – the global community can still mitigate the effects of climate change. The key is “substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels”, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes. Lukas Scheid and Bernhard Pötter have classified the IPCC synthesis report.
Mateusz Morawiecki gave a keynote speech on Europe yesterday at the Ruprecht Karls University in Heidelberg. Under the title “Europe at a historic turning point”, the Polish Prime Minister outlined a concept for the future of the Union, which is primarily a deconstruction. He said that the Union should concentrate on its core tasks, for which it is responsible under the 1957 Treaties of Rome, and otherwise be guided by the principle of subsidiarity. Till Hoppe listened to the speech.
Sometimes things can move fast in the EU. Three weeks ago, EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell first presented his plan for speeding up the delivery of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. On Monday, defense ministers approved the plan. The EU is providing €2 billion specifically for ammunition procurement, mainly for 155mm caliber rounds. The funds are to come from the European Peace Facility, which has already co-financed war material for Ukraine.
The goal is to be able to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells within a year, Borrell said Monday. A three-pronged approach was decided:
Delivery from stockpiles;
new procurement for Ukraine and replenishment of own reserves;
expansion of production capacities.
Up to €1 billion can be called up by the member states if they immediately supply further ammunition from their own stocks. In the first year of the war, the member states have already supplied Ukraine with 350,000 artillery shells in 155mm caliber. Stocks in the EU are therefore greatly reduced. No one wants to put a clear figure on the reserves for security reasons.
Only companies from the EU and Norway are to benefit
Josep Borrell wanted to use graduated compensation to create an incentive for member states to take another look in their warehouses and deliver as quickly as possible. A reimbursement rate of up to 90 percent was envisaged. However, a majority found this unfair to countries that had already delivered war materiel and had so far received less back. The reimbursement rate therefore remains unchanged at 50 to 60 percent. The cost of a 155mm caliber artillery shell is €4,000, although member states generally do not charge for the replacement value. The 155mm ammunition can be used in various NATO weapon systems.
The second billion is available to finance the joint procurement of artillery ammunition, also for Ukraine, but also to replenish own stocks. Until recently, it was disputed whether manufacturers outside Europe should also be considered. Now, only companies from the EU and Norway are to be considered.
15 companies in eleven member states could produce
Borrell had also suggested that the European Defense Agency (EDA) be tasked with coordination, i.e., that a European approach be taken, similar to the one used for vaccine procurement. However, some capitals pointed to existing national supply contracts. In addition, there were doubts as to whether the defense agency, with its focus on research and joint development under time pressure, would be suitable for organizing an order for the first time.
The comparison with vaccine procurement is also misleading, because the EU initially had to deal with only a few manufacturers. In the case of the sought-after artillery shells, 15 companies in eleven member states have suitable production facilities. The compromise provides for both options to be open.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius spoke of new territory: “We are breaking new ground in procurement in Europe”. He said the EU was pooling its market power. Germany would open its contracts as a framework nation for other countries. Denmark and the Netherlands have already expressed interest, he said. Pistorius assumed in Brussels that the existing contracts could be adapted by the end of March. However, Germany would also be involved in the joint order.
Internal Market Commissioner speaks of war economy
According to Borrell, 17 member states and Norway have already agreed to place orders through the Defense Agency. He said that things had to move quickly, and that the procurement of ammunition would be decisive for the outcome of the war. According to EU calculations, Russia fires between 20,000 and 60,000 artillery shells per day. Because of scarce reserves, Ukraine’s armed forces can fire a maximum of between 2,000 and 6,000 shells daily. Ukrainian Defense Minister Olexi Resnikov recently calculated that his army needs 250,000 to 300,000 artillery shells per month.
In addition to the billions for delivery from stocks and for joint orders, the EU plan also envisages expanding production capacities in parallel and in third place. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton even spoke of a war economy, which was met with internal criticism. The Frenchman is currently visiting defense companies across Europe.
Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger has already announced in interviews that capacities will be increased, namely in Hungary and with a new powder factory in Saxony. At the same time, Papperger complains that the EU is dragging its feet when it comes to orders. Without orders, Rheinmetall would not produce. Boris Pistorius indirectly rejected the criticism in Brussels on Monday. He said it was common knowledge that ammunition was needed. He said he assumed that the industry would quickly increase production capacity if it had not already done so.
European Defense
IPCC report: Europe is challenged and makes demands
The synthesis report of the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not contain any new facts. It brings together and reorganizes the various findings of the three working groups and several IPCC special reports.
Key points of the report:
Human activities are “clearly” causing global warming of 1.1 degrees Celsius so far compared to the average of the years from 1850 to 1900. “Widespread and rapid changes” are being felt in the atmosphere, oceans, ice regions and biospheres.
All regions of the world are affected. But most of all, “vulnerable communities that have contributed least to climate change“.
Without “rapid, deep and sustained action on CO2 reduction and adaptation”, “loss and damage” will continue to increase. Particularly affected: Africa, Asia, Central and South America, the Arctic, least developed countries, and poor island nations. Some changes are irreversible. Abrupt, irreversible damage becomes more likely as emissions rise.
The global North, and thus also Europe, are less affected by the impacts of climate change than others, but they contribute more than average to climate change. Therefore, the synthesis report repeats the requirement that global emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest. Also new is a figure for reductions by 2035 on the way to net zero in 2050: minus 60 percent compared to 2019.
To achieve these goals, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change insists on “substantial reductions in fossil fuel use” and CO2 capture where fossil fuels are unavoidable. This is a signal tothe global North in particular, as well as some emerging economies such as China, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where historical and current CO2 emissions are the highest in the world.
Timmermans calls for higher climate targets
EU Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans is therefore calling for higher climate targets, especially from industrialized and emerging countries, as they promised in Glasgow and Sharm el-Sheikh, as well as solid national laws to achieve the targets. He again announced that he would revise the EU climate target as soon as all legislative proposals of the Fit for 55 package have been negotiated.
Timmermans also underlines the EU’s demand for an end to fossil fuels. At the COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, this goal failed despite numerous supporters. To the displeasure of many Europeans, the synthesis report only touches this tricky subject of the climate debate very cautiously: It does not mention an exit from fossil fuels in any concrete terms, nor does it mention an end to their subsidies or the role of a CO2 price. The major emerging economies in particular, such as India, China and Saudi Arabia, have been exerting pressure in these areas. And in almost all of the IPCC’s scenarios, gas still plays an important role, at least until 2050.
The environmental spokesman for the EPP in the EU Parliament, Peter Liese (CDU), also complains that Europe’s climate targets are ambitious, but other industrialized countries and many emerging economies are falling short of expectations. China, in particular, needs to be convinced by a European model of decarbonized industry.
Green Deal ‘very inadequate’
Bas Eickhout (Greens), head of the EU Parliament’s delegation to COP27, on the other hand, doesn’t want to let Europe off the hook so easily. Richer countries would have to become climate neutral much faster – “not in 2050, but in 2040”. He therefore calls on the EU Commission to set the continent’s climate neutrality target asearly as 2040.
Klaus Röhrig, head of the climate department of Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe), also assesses the European Green Deal as “very inadequate”. The outstanding Green Deal legislation in the areas of buildings, gas and renewables would have to “set much higher targets” so that the Fit for 55 package would not only achieve a 55 percent reduction in CO2 emissions, but would be closer to 65 percent.
Dan Jörgensen, the Danish Minister for Climate, also sees that Europe is not yet fully on track. We are still a long way from the right path. At the moment, he says, things are heading for 2.3 to 2.5 degrees of warming. “We need a short-term plan for faster reductions by 2030″. Time is very short, Jörgensen said, adding that even in Denmark, the “world champion of wind energy”, it takes “seven years to get a wind turbine up and running” – and by then 2030 will have been reached. Lukas Scheid and Bernhard Pötter
You can also read more in-depth analyses and voices on the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report in a special issue of Climate.Table.
Climate & Environment
Climate Policy
Klimapolitik
Events
March 22, 2023; 12:30-2 p.m. DGAP, Panel DiscussionChanging the Regional Order – EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood in the Light of Russia’s Aggression The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) intends to take stock of various ramifications of the Ukraine war for the EU’s Eastern neighborhood.INFO & REGISTRATION
News
Morawiecki calls for dismantling of the EU
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has advocated shifting extensive competences from the EU level back to the member states. “Let’s reduce the number of areas for which the EU is responsible”, he said Monday during a speech at the University of Heidelberg. The Union should concentrate on the areas for which it is responsible under the 1957 Rome Treaties, he said, and otherwise be guided by the principle of subsidiarity.
In the speech, the national conservative politician set out his ideas for the future of the European Union, and Warsaw ranked them alongside the Sorbonne speech by French President Emmanuel Macron and the Prague speech by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The PiS government in Warsaw advocates a union of nation-states that focuses largely on economic cooperation in the Single Market. In this way, it can function even after the admission of further members, Morawiecki argued.
Only nation-states are in a position to defend the security, freedom and well-being of nations. Their role can be strengthened, but not replaced, by cooperation among governments or, in part, by supranational institutions, he said. “Unfortunately, a large part of today’s EU elite lives in an alternative reality“, Morawiecki said. The more they insist on their (alleged) vision of a centralized superstate, the more determined the resistance of a growing number of states will be, he said. Otherwise, a “bureaucratic autocracy” looms.
The alternative to “further centralization” with strengthening of EU institutions and large member states such as Germany and France is a new balance of power in favor of countries in all parts of Europe, Morawiecki argued. Not listening to Warsaw and other Central and Eastern European states was a mistake – after all, he said, they had been right in their warnings about Russia and its President Vladimir Putin. “It means giving power to people like Gerhard Schröder, who have made Europe dependent on Russia and put the whole continent in existential danger”.
Without naming Berlin and Paris, Morawiecki warned against yielding to Russia. There is a danger, he said, that “some of the largest countries will decide that it is more profitable for their elites to do business with the Kremlin, even if it costs blood”. Today this is Ukrainian blood, but tomorrow other countries could be affected by Russian aggression.
The chairman of the CDU/CSU group in the European Parliament, Daniel Caspary (CDU), was disappointed by the speech, saying that it contained “little that was new, but instead a repetition of familiar positions”. The speech must be seen “first and foremost as an election campaign appearance”. Poland elects a new Parliament in the fall. tho
European policy
Gas: Commission wants to reduce consumption in summer
The EU member states are to save more gas in the upcoming summer, according to the Commission. Analogous to the previous year, the member states could face additional savings in the order of seven billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas. This is the result of a draft regulation published yesterday and the analysis of Eurostat data.
As announced, the Commission has proposed to the EU member states that the emergency regulation on gas savings be extended until March 2024. This would mean that the initially voluntary gas savings target of 15 percent would continue to apply from April this year. EU energy ministers are expected to discuss the draft on March 28.
The previous emergency regulation expires at the end of the month. According to it, the EU states were to voluntarily reduce their gas consumption by 15 percent from August 2022 to March 2023. What would be new is that the savings target would also apply in the months from April to July. According to the Commission’s analysis, this would allow storage tanks to be filled to 95 percent by October. By the end of the heating season in March 2024, the fill levels would drop to 43 percent, according to the scenario.
Saving gas too late would jeopardize security of supply
If, on the other hand, the gas savings target were to apply again only from August, the Commission expects fill levels of only 80 and 28 percent, respectively. This would result in “serious concerns about security of supply”, making it difficult to fill storage facilities sufficiently for the winter of 2024/25.
Last year, the EU-27 missed the new summer savings target. Instead of 15 percent, gas consumption in the period from April to July fell by just under eight percent, according to an analysis of Eurostat data by Table.Media. According to this, the EU states would have had to save an additional seven bcm.
Under the commission’s draft, member states would also be required to report gas consumption to the authority on a monthly basis instead of every two months starting in April, with savings broken down into three sectors: electricity and heat generation, industry, households and commerce. ber
EU
European Commission
Agriculture Council calls for more sustainable fisheries
Europe’s agriculture ministers want to work towards more sustainability in fisheries. In a long meeting on Monday, the Council welcomed the corresponding package of measures presented by the Commission at the end of February. The sometimes severe negative impact of the sector on marine ecology must be reduced, as must dependence on fossil fuels. Within the framework of a Fisheries and Oceans Pact, the interests of all stakeholders are to be included in the implementation.
This is because it “should not be at the expense of food security in the EU and the livelihoods of coastal communities, especially given the current challenges in the sector”, said Council President Peter Kullgren, Swedish Minister for Rural Affairs.
Özdemir against trawl ban
European fisheries, for example, are not very competitive internationally and are particularly susceptible to price fluctuations, especially in the energy sector. Implementation of the measures must therefore be preceded by an assessment of potential socioeconomic impacts. The ministers also stressed that the Commission must provide adequate funding for the proposed measures, taking into account regional specificities and the interests of smaller fishing operations.
Germany welcomes the projects. “The North Sea and Baltic Sea and in poor condition. We must do everything to ensure that fish stocks recover”, said Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens) on the sidelines of the meeting, but also expressed concerns.
The Commission’s plan calls for phasing out the use of bottom trawls “in all marine protected areas by 2030 at the latest and not allowing them at all in newly established marine protected areas”. For Özdemir, this goes too far. “A total ban would largely eliminate crab fishing, which is an important tradition, source of income and identity for fishing in our country”. The added value goes far beyond the coasts. A more balanced solution must be found here, he said. til
Climate & Environment
Energy
European policy
Nutrition
Lagarde underlines resilience of banking sector
ECB President Christine Lagarde has underlined the robustness of the euro area banking industry in the European Parliament following the bailout of Swiss bank Credit Suisse. “The euro area banking sector is resilient and has a strong capital and liquidity base”, Lagarde reiterated at a hearing in the EU Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) on Monday. The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring market developments, she said. It stands ready to react if necessary to maintain price and financial stability in the 20-country monetary community, she assured. The central bank’s toolbox is fully equipped to support the financial system with liquidity.
“We are very confident that the capital and liquidity positions of banks in the euro area are very satisfactory”, Lagarde said. Capital ratios are significant and liquidity coverage ratios are well above requirements. The banking system is sound, she added. Moreover, she said, the exposure of eurozone financial institutions to Credit Suisse should be quantified in millions of euros – not billions. In her capacity as head of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), she also urged banks to maintain their current levels of resilience. That way, she explained, they can ensure they can weather a more adverse environment.
The ECB chief also told MEPs that the central bank will not let stock market tensions distract it from its fight against high inflation. “There is no conflict of objectives between price stability on the one hand and financial stability on the other”, Lagarde said. Different instruments would be used for each. Inflation in the euro area remains too high, the ECB president elaborated. Ultimately, she said, the central bank must bring inflation back to the two percent target in the medium term. She asked the MEPs to “please do not doubt the determination, it is there and it is strong”. rtr
Financial policy
Vote of no confidence in French government fails
France is in political crisis after President Emmanuel Macron decided to push through his controversial pension reform using constitutional paragraph 49.3, which allows a law to be passed without a parliamentary vote. Two groups announced they would table a vote of no confidence in the government. This was put to the vote in Parliament on Monday.
Both motions failed to pass, one was only nine votes short. This was a cross-party vote of no confidence. The other vote came from the ranks of the far-right Rassemblement National RN, which was given no chance in France from the outset because the other groups do not want to join forces with the RN. Only 94 votes were cast in favor. This means that the law has been confirmed for the time being.
In the cross-party vote of no confidence of the LIOT group of 20 independent deputies of different political tendencies, it was expected that 88 deputies from RN, 150 from the Confederation Nupes (Greens, Left, Socialists) and 20 independent deputies would vote in favor, which is 258. Thus, they were short of votes, because the majority is 287 votes.
The main remaining uncertainty was the conservative Republicans. The line was not clear among them, and everyone voted as they wished. The government was afraid of this vote because nothing had gone as planned in recent days. It had been expected that the Republicans in the House would vote for the reform. But two votes were reportedly missing in the projection, which is why Macron resorted to paragraph 49.3.
Another stumbling block now is the Nupes, who could presumably file a petition against it with the Constitutional Council. They would have 15 days to do so. The Constitutional Council may censor the entire law or parts of it. The Council has one month to decide, but the government can demand a reduction to only eight days.
Before the election, however, deputies put another obstacle in Macron’s path. A possible popular referendum, an initiative of the Communists, was launched and submitted Monday to the Constitutional Council. By law, it must be signed by one-fifth of the members of Parliament, at least 185 of the 925 parliamentarians (577 deputies of the National Assembly, 358 senators). It has been signed by 252 parliamentarians, according to the latest information. The initiative would then have to be supported by one-tenth of the electorate, 4.87 million people. The signatures must be gathered within nine months. A highly complicated undertaking. With this, the deputies wanted to exhaust all possibilities. However, the Constitutional Council still has to give its approval as to whether the request is compliant, and this must be done within a period of no more than one month. If this is the case, the law could be blocked for the time being. But if Macron has officially announced the law before then, he has won. tk
Xi in Moscow: China’s mediator role under scrutiny
China is ready to work with Russia to protect the world order based on international law, Xi Jinping said upon his arrival in Moscow on Monday. Ukraine will be high on the agenda during the Chinese leader’s three-day visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “President Putin will give detailed explanations so that Xi can get firsthand the current view of the Russian side”, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday.
It is true that Beijing presents itself as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv – and most recently presented a 12-point plan for a political solution to the Ukraine war. But China’s attitude toward Russia so far shows little promise that Xi will urge his Russian interlocutor to end the war quickly.
There is no question that China has the potential to play a decisive role in resolving the war. That is also the view in Ukraine. There, the Foreign Ministry on Monday appealed to Xi to use his visit to Moscow to find a peaceful solution. “We expect Beijing to use its influence on Moscow to persuade it to end the aggressive war against Ukraine”, ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said. Politically, however, China clearly backed Putin right at the start of the visit. The Foreign Ministry in Beijing criticized the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the arrest warrant issued against Putin.
Xi wants to talk on the phone with Zelenskiy
On the one hand, Xi is hoping for concessions from Ukraine, but on the other hand, he is not demanding that Russia withdraw its troops from Ukraine, analyzes Yurii Poita, a political scientist from the Kyiv-based think tank New Geopolitics Research Network. Mediation cannot work like that, he says. Poita is also unconvinced by the announcement that Xi plans to talk on the phone with Volodymyr Zelenskiy after the visit to Moscow. “Without a prospect of peace, Ukraine will not freeze the conflict, as China would like”.
Over the weekend, Vladimir Putin wrote in the Chinese People’s Daily: “Russia is open to a settlement of the Ukraine crisis by political-diplomatic means”, but Ukraine must recognize the “new geopolitical realities“. This refers to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 in violation of international law and the occupation of four Ukrainian regions last year. And Xi remains extremely vague about this in the Chinese People’s Daily: China’s position on the political solution to the Ukraine crisis has addressed the legitimate concerns of all parties.
What Xi really wants
Add to this the recurring reports of alleged arms deliveries from China to Russia. It is obvious that China is considering such an option, Poita says: Beijing wants to prevent Putin from losing this war – and possibly being toppled as a result – at all costs. Supplying weapons to Russia would completely destroy China’s attempts to show itself as a peaceful, responsible and constructive actor, the political scientist says. He therefore suspects a Chinese balancing act: In order to prop up Putin, China could covertly supply weapons to Russia – for example, via North Korea, Iran or Belarus.
One thing is clear: Xi Jinping is not concerned with Russia or Ukraine. The Chinese leader sees his opponent in Washington, and here he will carefully consider how he can best score points in the competition with the United States. On the one hand, he wants to position himself as an honest broker and leader of the Global South; on the other, he wants to secure the (economic and political) gratitude of a submissive Russia. And last but not least, he would like to win the goodwill of Europe. rad
China
Ukraine
Heads
Martin Häusling – provocative and powerful
Martin Häusling has been a member of the European Parliament for the Greens since 2009 and is the group’s spokesman on agricultural policy.
Martin Häusling’s life was actually preordained: He inherited his parents’ “Kellerwaldhof” farm in Bad Zwesten, Hesse, with pigs, cows and a cheese dairy. “It was unusual that I later became a professional politician”, says Häusling. He has been a member of the European Parliament since 2009 as agricultural policy spokesman for the Greens/EFA group, making him one of the most influential MEPs. That’s because the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) makes up a large part of the EU budget, at 30 percent, €55.7 billion annually.
Häusling joined the Green Party at the age of 18 and is a co-founder of the Hessian state association. At that time, he was involved in the anti-nuclear movement and demonstrated against the construction of a nuclear power plant in Borken – with success, it was not built. Häusling has been a local politician since 1981, and was a member of the Hessian state parliament from 2003 to 2009. He has never been drawn to the federal level. For agricultural policy, the magic happens in Brussels.
Reduction of pesticides
Häusling is a thorn in the side of many agricultural lobbyists. “I’m a good target if you want to go after the Greens“, he says. “If you want a provocative event, you invite Häusling”. Häusling is happy to play along because he knows what he’s talking about.
His wish is not that everyone should farm organically like him – but he is committed to a massive reduction in pesticides. In its from-farm-to-fork strategy, the Commission has set itself the goal of reducing pesticide use by 50 percent by 2023. However, he said, there is massive opposition from the other side – including conservatives and the Bayer Group, which makes the pesticides. “Seventy years of conventional agriculture have made farmers dependent on industry”, Häusling says. “Some farmers believe they can’t farm without pesticides”.
CAP is always an issue
Häusling is currently already preparing for the upcoming CAP negotiations. The current one is still running for four years, but “after the CAP is before the CAP”. The Greens want to have their demands ready before the Commission. In particular, Häusling criticizes the direct payments per hectare: “The large farms, for example in Brandenburg, made fat profits last year because the grain price went through the roof and they received additional subsidies”. But many small farmers are no longer landowners at all and are disadvantaged, he said. He also said there needs to be an ecological transformation. “We should pay farmers for services that society no longer pays them for through the price of food”. By this Häusling means ecological, biodiversity and climate measures. The MEP is certain that fundamental reform is needed.
Häusling would like to run again in the coming election. He seems to like Brussels. His favorite thing to do is go to the flea markets in the city. “Brussels has the most beautiful flea markets in Europe”, he explains. He can personally recommend the daily flea market at Place du Jeu de Balle. Tom Schmidtgen
The foreign ministers of the EU states have agreed on a joint supply of ammunition to Ukraine. They want to provide one million artillery shells for defense against Russia over the next twelve months. The aim is also to end the imbalance between Russia and Ukraine: Russia fires between 20,000 and 60,000 artillery shells per day, the EU estimates, while the Ukrainian army can fire a maximum of between 2,000 and 6,000 shells. Stephan Israel knows the pitfalls of this ambitious plan.
The presentation of the IPCC report was accompanied by dystopian warnings. The climate time bomb is ticking, warned UN Secretary-General António Guterres, and humanity is “skating on thin ice”. But he avoided spreading doomsday sentiment – the global community can still mitigate the effects of climate change. The key is “substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuels”, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change notes. Lukas Scheid and Bernhard Pötter have classified the IPCC synthesis report.
Mateusz Morawiecki gave a keynote speech on Europe yesterday at the Ruprecht Karls University in Heidelberg. Under the title “Europe at a historic turning point”, the Polish Prime Minister outlined a concept for the future of the Union, which is primarily a deconstruction. He said that the Union should concentrate on its core tasks, for which it is responsible under the 1957 Treaties of Rome, and otherwise be guided by the principle of subsidiarity. Till Hoppe listened to the speech.
Sometimes things can move fast in the EU. Three weeks ago, EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell first presented his plan for speeding up the delivery of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. On Monday, defense ministers approved the plan. The EU is providing €2 billion specifically for ammunition procurement, mainly for 155mm caliber rounds. The funds are to come from the European Peace Facility, which has already co-financed war material for Ukraine.
The goal is to be able to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells within a year, Borrell said Monday. A three-pronged approach was decided:
Delivery from stockpiles;
new procurement for Ukraine and replenishment of own reserves;
expansion of production capacities.
Up to €1 billion can be called up by the member states if they immediately supply further ammunition from their own stocks. In the first year of the war, the member states have already supplied Ukraine with 350,000 artillery shells in 155mm caliber. Stocks in the EU are therefore greatly reduced. No one wants to put a clear figure on the reserves for security reasons.
Only companies from the EU and Norway are to benefit
Josep Borrell wanted to use graduated compensation to create an incentive for member states to take another look in their warehouses and deliver as quickly as possible. A reimbursement rate of up to 90 percent was envisaged. However, a majority found this unfair to countries that had already delivered war materiel and had so far received less back. The reimbursement rate therefore remains unchanged at 50 to 60 percent. The cost of a 155mm caliber artillery shell is €4,000, although member states generally do not charge for the replacement value. The 155mm ammunition can be used in various NATO weapon systems.
The second billion is available to finance the joint procurement of artillery ammunition, also for Ukraine, but also to replenish own stocks. Until recently, it was disputed whether manufacturers outside Europe should also be considered. Now, only companies from the EU and Norway are to be considered.
15 companies in eleven member states could produce
Borrell had also suggested that the European Defense Agency (EDA) be tasked with coordination, i.e., that a European approach be taken, similar to the one used for vaccine procurement. However, some capitals pointed to existing national supply contracts. In addition, there were doubts as to whether the defense agency, with its focus on research and joint development under time pressure, would be suitable for organizing an order for the first time.
The comparison with vaccine procurement is also misleading, because the EU initially had to deal with only a few manufacturers. In the case of the sought-after artillery shells, 15 companies in eleven member states have suitable production facilities. The compromise provides for both options to be open.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius spoke of new territory: “We are breaking new ground in procurement in Europe”. He said the EU was pooling its market power. Germany would open its contracts as a framework nation for other countries. Denmark and the Netherlands have already expressed interest, he said. Pistorius assumed in Brussels that the existing contracts could be adapted by the end of March. However, Germany would also be involved in the joint order.
Internal Market Commissioner speaks of war economy
According to Borrell, 17 member states and Norway have already agreed to place orders through the Defense Agency. He said that things had to move quickly, and that the procurement of ammunition would be decisive for the outcome of the war. According to EU calculations, Russia fires between 20,000 and 60,000 artillery shells per day. Because of scarce reserves, Ukraine’s armed forces can fire a maximum of between 2,000 and 6,000 shells daily. Ukrainian Defense Minister Olexi Resnikov recently calculated that his army needs 250,000 to 300,000 artillery shells per month.
In addition to the billions for delivery from stocks and for joint orders, the EU plan also envisages expanding production capacities in parallel and in third place. Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton even spoke of a war economy, which was met with internal criticism. The Frenchman is currently visiting defense companies across Europe.
Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger has already announced in interviews that capacities will be increased, namely in Hungary and with a new powder factory in Saxony. At the same time, Papperger complains that the EU is dragging its feet when it comes to orders. Without orders, Rheinmetall would not produce. Boris Pistorius indirectly rejected the criticism in Brussels on Monday. He said it was common knowledge that ammunition was needed. He said he assumed that the industry would quickly increase production capacity if it had not already done so.
European Defense
IPCC report: Europe is challenged and makes demands
The synthesis report of the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not contain any new facts. It brings together and reorganizes the various findings of the three working groups and several IPCC special reports.
Key points of the report:
Human activities are “clearly” causing global warming of 1.1 degrees Celsius so far compared to the average of the years from 1850 to 1900. “Widespread and rapid changes” are being felt in the atmosphere, oceans, ice regions and biospheres.
All regions of the world are affected. But most of all, “vulnerable communities that have contributed least to climate change“.
Without “rapid, deep and sustained action on CO2 reduction and adaptation”, “loss and damage” will continue to increase. Particularly affected: Africa, Asia, Central and South America, the Arctic, least developed countries, and poor island nations. Some changes are irreversible. Abrupt, irreversible damage becomes more likely as emissions rise.
The global North, and thus also Europe, are less affected by the impacts of climate change than others, but they contribute more than average to climate change. Therefore, the synthesis report repeats the requirement that global emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest. Also new is a figure for reductions by 2035 on the way to net zero in 2050: minus 60 percent compared to 2019.
To achieve these goals, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change insists on “substantial reductions in fossil fuel use” and CO2 capture where fossil fuels are unavoidable. This is a signal tothe global North in particular, as well as some emerging economies such as China, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, where historical and current CO2 emissions are the highest in the world.
Timmermans calls for higher climate targets
EU Climate Commissioner Frans Timmermans is therefore calling for higher climate targets, especially from industrialized and emerging countries, as they promised in Glasgow and Sharm el-Sheikh, as well as solid national laws to achieve the targets. He again announced that he would revise the EU climate target as soon as all legislative proposals of the Fit for 55 package have been negotiated.
Timmermans also underlines the EU’s demand for an end to fossil fuels. At the COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, this goal failed despite numerous supporters. To the displeasure of many Europeans, the synthesis report only touches this tricky subject of the climate debate very cautiously: It does not mention an exit from fossil fuels in any concrete terms, nor does it mention an end to their subsidies or the role of a CO2 price. The major emerging economies in particular, such as India, China and Saudi Arabia, have been exerting pressure in these areas. And in almost all of the IPCC’s scenarios, gas still plays an important role, at least until 2050.
The environmental spokesman for the EPP in the EU Parliament, Peter Liese (CDU), also complains that Europe’s climate targets are ambitious, but other industrialized countries and many emerging economies are falling short of expectations. China, in particular, needs to be convinced by a European model of decarbonized industry.
Green Deal ‘very inadequate’
Bas Eickhout (Greens), head of the EU Parliament’s delegation to COP27, on the other hand, doesn’t want to let Europe off the hook so easily. Richer countries would have to become climate neutral much faster – “not in 2050, but in 2040”. He therefore calls on the EU Commission to set the continent’s climate neutrality target asearly as 2040.
Klaus Röhrig, head of the climate department of Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe), also assesses the European Green Deal as “very inadequate”. The outstanding Green Deal legislation in the areas of buildings, gas and renewables would have to “set much higher targets” so that the Fit for 55 package would not only achieve a 55 percent reduction in CO2 emissions, but would be closer to 65 percent.
Dan Jörgensen, the Danish Minister for Climate, also sees that Europe is not yet fully on track. We are still a long way from the right path. At the moment, he says, things are heading for 2.3 to 2.5 degrees of warming. “We need a short-term plan for faster reductions by 2030″. Time is very short, Jörgensen said, adding that even in Denmark, the “world champion of wind energy”, it takes “seven years to get a wind turbine up and running” – and by then 2030 will have been reached. Lukas Scheid and Bernhard Pötter
You can also read more in-depth analyses and voices on the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report in a special issue of Climate.Table.
Climate & Environment
Climate Policy
Klimapolitik
Events
March 22, 2023; 12:30-2 p.m. DGAP, Panel DiscussionChanging the Regional Order – EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood in the Light of Russia’s Aggression The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) intends to take stock of various ramifications of the Ukraine war for the EU’s Eastern neighborhood.INFO & REGISTRATION
News
Morawiecki calls for dismantling of the EU
Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has advocated shifting extensive competences from the EU level back to the member states. “Let’s reduce the number of areas for which the EU is responsible”, he said Monday during a speech at the University of Heidelberg. The Union should concentrate on the areas for which it is responsible under the 1957 Rome Treaties, he said, and otherwise be guided by the principle of subsidiarity.
In the speech, the national conservative politician set out his ideas for the future of the European Union, and Warsaw ranked them alongside the Sorbonne speech by French President Emmanuel Macron and the Prague speech by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The PiS government in Warsaw advocates a union of nation-states that focuses largely on economic cooperation in the Single Market. In this way, it can function even after the admission of further members, Morawiecki argued.
Only nation-states are in a position to defend the security, freedom and well-being of nations. Their role can be strengthened, but not replaced, by cooperation among governments or, in part, by supranational institutions, he said. “Unfortunately, a large part of today’s EU elite lives in an alternative reality“, Morawiecki said. The more they insist on their (alleged) vision of a centralized superstate, the more determined the resistance of a growing number of states will be, he said. Otherwise, a “bureaucratic autocracy” looms.
The alternative to “further centralization” with strengthening of EU institutions and large member states such as Germany and France is a new balance of power in favor of countries in all parts of Europe, Morawiecki argued. Not listening to Warsaw and other Central and Eastern European states was a mistake – after all, he said, they had been right in their warnings about Russia and its President Vladimir Putin. “It means giving power to people like Gerhard Schröder, who have made Europe dependent on Russia and put the whole continent in existential danger”.
Without naming Berlin and Paris, Morawiecki warned against yielding to Russia. There is a danger, he said, that “some of the largest countries will decide that it is more profitable for their elites to do business with the Kremlin, even if it costs blood”. Today this is Ukrainian blood, but tomorrow other countries could be affected by Russian aggression.
The chairman of the CDU/CSU group in the European Parliament, Daniel Caspary (CDU), was disappointed by the speech, saying that it contained “little that was new, but instead a repetition of familiar positions”. The speech must be seen “first and foremost as an election campaign appearance”. Poland elects a new Parliament in the fall. tho
European policy
Gas: Commission wants to reduce consumption in summer
The EU member states are to save more gas in the upcoming summer, according to the Commission. Analogous to the previous year, the member states could face additional savings in the order of seven billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas. This is the result of a draft regulation published yesterday and the analysis of Eurostat data.
As announced, the Commission has proposed to the EU member states that the emergency regulation on gas savings be extended until March 2024. This would mean that the initially voluntary gas savings target of 15 percent would continue to apply from April this year. EU energy ministers are expected to discuss the draft on March 28.
The previous emergency regulation expires at the end of the month. According to it, the EU states were to voluntarily reduce their gas consumption by 15 percent from August 2022 to March 2023. What would be new is that the savings target would also apply in the months from April to July. According to the Commission’s analysis, this would allow storage tanks to be filled to 95 percent by October. By the end of the heating season in March 2024, the fill levels would drop to 43 percent, according to the scenario.
Saving gas too late would jeopardize security of supply
If, on the other hand, the gas savings target were to apply again only from August, the Commission expects fill levels of only 80 and 28 percent, respectively. This would result in “serious concerns about security of supply”, making it difficult to fill storage facilities sufficiently for the winter of 2024/25.
Last year, the EU-27 missed the new summer savings target. Instead of 15 percent, gas consumption in the period from April to July fell by just under eight percent, according to an analysis of Eurostat data by Table.Media. According to this, the EU states would have had to save an additional seven bcm.
Under the commission’s draft, member states would also be required to report gas consumption to the authority on a monthly basis instead of every two months starting in April, with savings broken down into three sectors: electricity and heat generation, industry, households and commerce. ber
EU
European Commission
Agriculture Council calls for more sustainable fisheries
Europe’s agriculture ministers want to work towards more sustainability in fisheries. In a long meeting on Monday, the Council welcomed the corresponding package of measures presented by the Commission at the end of February. The sometimes severe negative impact of the sector on marine ecology must be reduced, as must dependence on fossil fuels. Within the framework of a Fisheries and Oceans Pact, the interests of all stakeholders are to be included in the implementation.
This is because it “should not be at the expense of food security in the EU and the livelihoods of coastal communities, especially given the current challenges in the sector”, said Council President Peter Kullgren, Swedish Minister for Rural Affairs.
Özdemir against trawl ban
European fisheries, for example, are not very competitive internationally and are particularly susceptible to price fluctuations, especially in the energy sector. Implementation of the measures must therefore be preceded by an assessment of potential socioeconomic impacts. The ministers also stressed that the Commission must provide adequate funding for the proposed measures, taking into account regional specificities and the interests of smaller fishing operations.
Germany welcomes the projects. “The North Sea and Baltic Sea and in poor condition. We must do everything to ensure that fish stocks recover”, said Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir (Greens) on the sidelines of the meeting, but also expressed concerns.
The Commission’s plan calls for phasing out the use of bottom trawls “in all marine protected areas by 2030 at the latest and not allowing them at all in newly established marine protected areas”. For Özdemir, this goes too far. “A total ban would largely eliminate crab fishing, which is an important tradition, source of income and identity for fishing in our country”. The added value goes far beyond the coasts. A more balanced solution must be found here, he said. til
Climate & Environment
Energy
European policy
Nutrition
Lagarde underlines resilience of banking sector
ECB President Christine Lagarde has underlined the robustness of the euro area banking industry in the European Parliament following the bailout of Swiss bank Credit Suisse. “The euro area banking sector is resilient and has a strong capital and liquidity base”, Lagarde reiterated at a hearing in the EU Parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) on Monday. The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring market developments, she said. It stands ready to react if necessary to maintain price and financial stability in the 20-country monetary community, she assured. The central bank’s toolbox is fully equipped to support the financial system with liquidity.
“We are very confident that the capital and liquidity positions of banks in the euro area are very satisfactory”, Lagarde said. Capital ratios are significant and liquidity coverage ratios are well above requirements. The banking system is sound, she added. Moreover, she said, the exposure of eurozone financial institutions to Credit Suisse should be quantified in millions of euros – not billions. In her capacity as head of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), she also urged banks to maintain their current levels of resilience. That way, she explained, they can ensure they can weather a more adverse environment.
The ECB chief also told MEPs that the central bank will not let stock market tensions distract it from its fight against high inflation. “There is no conflict of objectives between price stability on the one hand and financial stability on the other”, Lagarde said. Different instruments would be used for each. Inflation in the euro area remains too high, the ECB president elaborated. Ultimately, she said, the central bank must bring inflation back to the two percent target in the medium term. She asked the MEPs to “please do not doubt the determination, it is there and it is strong”. rtr
Financial policy
Vote of no confidence in French government fails
France is in political crisis after President Emmanuel Macron decided to push through his controversial pension reform using constitutional paragraph 49.3, which allows a law to be passed without a parliamentary vote. Two groups announced they would table a vote of no confidence in the government. This was put to the vote in Parliament on Monday.
Both motions failed to pass, one was only nine votes short. This was a cross-party vote of no confidence. The other vote came from the ranks of the far-right Rassemblement National RN, which was given no chance in France from the outset because the other groups do not want to join forces with the RN. Only 94 votes were cast in favor. This means that the law has been confirmed for the time being.
In the cross-party vote of no confidence of the LIOT group of 20 independent deputies of different political tendencies, it was expected that 88 deputies from RN, 150 from the Confederation Nupes (Greens, Left, Socialists) and 20 independent deputies would vote in favor, which is 258. Thus, they were short of votes, because the majority is 287 votes.
The main remaining uncertainty was the conservative Republicans. The line was not clear among them, and everyone voted as they wished. The government was afraid of this vote because nothing had gone as planned in recent days. It had been expected that the Republicans in the House would vote for the reform. But two votes were reportedly missing in the projection, which is why Macron resorted to paragraph 49.3.
Another stumbling block now is the Nupes, who could presumably file a petition against it with the Constitutional Council. They would have 15 days to do so. The Constitutional Council may censor the entire law or parts of it. The Council has one month to decide, but the government can demand a reduction to only eight days.
Before the election, however, deputies put another obstacle in Macron’s path. A possible popular referendum, an initiative of the Communists, was launched and submitted Monday to the Constitutional Council. By law, it must be signed by one-fifth of the members of Parliament, at least 185 of the 925 parliamentarians (577 deputies of the National Assembly, 358 senators). It has been signed by 252 parliamentarians, according to the latest information. The initiative would then have to be supported by one-tenth of the electorate, 4.87 million people. The signatures must be gathered within nine months. A highly complicated undertaking. With this, the deputies wanted to exhaust all possibilities. However, the Constitutional Council still has to give its approval as to whether the request is compliant, and this must be done within a period of no more than one month. If this is the case, the law could be blocked for the time being. But if Macron has officially announced the law before then, he has won. tk
Xi in Moscow: China’s mediator role under scrutiny
China is ready to work with Russia to protect the world order based on international law, Xi Jinping said upon his arrival in Moscow on Monday. Ukraine will be high on the agenda during the Chinese leader’s three-day visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “President Putin will give detailed explanations so that Xi can get firsthand the current view of the Russian side”, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday.
It is true that Beijing presents itself as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv – and most recently presented a 12-point plan for a political solution to the Ukraine war. But China’s attitude toward Russia so far shows little promise that Xi will urge his Russian interlocutor to end the war quickly.
There is no question that China has the potential to play a decisive role in resolving the war. That is also the view in Ukraine. There, the Foreign Ministry on Monday appealed to Xi to use his visit to Moscow to find a peaceful solution. “We expect Beijing to use its influence on Moscow to persuade it to end the aggressive war against Ukraine”, ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said. Politically, however, China clearly backed Putin right at the start of the visit. The Foreign Ministry in Beijing criticized the International Criminal Court (ICC) for the arrest warrant issued against Putin.
Xi wants to talk on the phone with Zelenskiy
On the one hand, Xi is hoping for concessions from Ukraine, but on the other hand, he is not demanding that Russia withdraw its troops from Ukraine, analyzes Yurii Poita, a political scientist from the Kyiv-based think tank New Geopolitics Research Network. Mediation cannot work like that, he says. Poita is also unconvinced by the announcement that Xi plans to talk on the phone with Volodymyr Zelenskiy after the visit to Moscow. “Without a prospect of peace, Ukraine will not freeze the conflict, as China would like”.
Over the weekend, Vladimir Putin wrote in the Chinese People’s Daily: “Russia is open to a settlement of the Ukraine crisis by political-diplomatic means”, but Ukraine must recognize the “new geopolitical realities“. This refers to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 in violation of international law and the occupation of four Ukrainian regions last year. And Xi remains extremely vague about this in the Chinese People’s Daily: China’s position on the political solution to the Ukraine crisis has addressed the legitimate concerns of all parties.
What Xi really wants
Add to this the recurring reports of alleged arms deliveries from China to Russia. It is obvious that China is considering such an option, Poita says: Beijing wants to prevent Putin from losing this war – and possibly being toppled as a result – at all costs. Supplying weapons to Russia would completely destroy China’s attempts to show itself as a peaceful, responsible and constructive actor, the political scientist says. He therefore suspects a Chinese balancing act: In order to prop up Putin, China could covertly supply weapons to Russia – for example, via North Korea, Iran or Belarus.
One thing is clear: Xi Jinping is not concerned with Russia or Ukraine. The Chinese leader sees his opponent in Washington, and here he will carefully consider how he can best score points in the competition with the United States. On the one hand, he wants to position himself as an honest broker and leader of the Global South; on the other, he wants to secure the (economic and political) gratitude of a submissive Russia. And last but not least, he would like to win the goodwill of Europe. rad
China
Ukraine
Heads
Martin Häusling – provocative and powerful
Martin Häusling has been a member of the European Parliament for the Greens since 2009 and is the group’s spokesman on agricultural policy.
Martin Häusling’s life was actually preordained: He inherited his parents’ “Kellerwaldhof” farm in Bad Zwesten, Hesse, with pigs, cows and a cheese dairy. “It was unusual that I later became a professional politician”, says Häusling. He has been a member of the European Parliament since 2009 as agricultural policy spokesman for the Greens/EFA group, making him one of the most influential MEPs. That’s because the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) makes up a large part of the EU budget, at 30 percent, €55.7 billion annually.
Häusling joined the Green Party at the age of 18 and is a co-founder of the Hessian state association. At that time, he was involved in the anti-nuclear movement and demonstrated against the construction of a nuclear power plant in Borken – with success, it was not built. Häusling has been a local politician since 1981, and was a member of the Hessian state parliament from 2003 to 2009. He has never been drawn to the federal level. For agricultural policy, the magic happens in Brussels.
Reduction of pesticides
Häusling is a thorn in the side of many agricultural lobbyists. “I’m a good target if you want to go after the Greens“, he says. “If you want a provocative event, you invite Häusling”. Häusling is happy to play along because he knows what he’s talking about.
His wish is not that everyone should farm organically like him – but he is committed to a massive reduction in pesticides. In its from-farm-to-fork strategy, the Commission has set itself the goal of reducing pesticide use by 50 percent by 2023. However, he said, there is massive opposition from the other side – including conservatives and the Bayer Group, which makes the pesticides. “Seventy years of conventional agriculture have made farmers dependent on industry”, Häusling says. “Some farmers believe they can’t farm without pesticides”.
CAP is always an issue
Häusling is currently already preparing for the upcoming CAP negotiations. The current one is still running for four years, but “after the CAP is before the CAP”. The Greens want to have their demands ready before the Commission. In particular, Häusling criticizes the direct payments per hectare: “The large farms, for example in Brandenburg, made fat profits last year because the grain price went through the roof and they received additional subsidies”. But many small farmers are no longer landowners at all and are disadvantaged, he said. He also said there needs to be an ecological transformation. “We should pay farmers for services that society no longer pays them for through the price of food”. By this Häusling means ecological, biodiversity and climate measures. The MEP is certain that fundamental reform is needed.
Häusling would like to run again in the coming election. He seems to like Brussels. His favorite thing to do is go to the flea markets in the city. “Brussels has the most beautiful flea markets in Europe”, he explains. He can personally recommend the daily flea market at Place du Jeu de Balle. Tom Schmidtgen
