Table.Briefing: Climate

Warning of failing COP28 + Al-Jaber in Bonn + Maldives build new islands

Dear reader,

It is the big crux of international climate policy: If the climate crisis is to be stopped, fossil fuels cannot continue to be burned. But a new study shows: Oil and gas countries continue to invest in their extraction, consumer countries increase fossil subsidies instead of cutting them. This is the path to 2.7 degrees of warming, the report warns. COP28 could be a failure before it even started. And it is no coincidence that this loud alarm, with harsh criticism of the next COP host, the United Arab Emirates, comes on the day that COP President-elect Sultan Al Jaber visits Bonn.

At the Bonn climate change conference SB58, there is also a struggle over money. Billions are at stake for a loss and damage fund. But many rich countries are using “delaying tactics“, criticizes Harjeet Singh of CAN International. The UN states are also stingy when it comes to funding the UN Climate Change Secretariat – even though it is only a comparatively measly 30 million euros. The sums rich developed countries would have to pay to the countries of the Global South for their historic climate debt are far greater: 170 trillion US dollars, according to a new study. The Maldives also require more money, and are now building new islands to protect themselves from sinking, as their EU ambassador explains in an interview.

In any case, we will be closely observing developments in Bonn and elsewhere.

Your
Nico Beckert
Image of Nico  Beckert

Feature

Study warns of failing COP28

Protest gegen Willow-Öl Projekt vor Weißem Haus
Approved by the US government in spring 2023: new oil project in Alaska

With an urgent plea to change course and sharp criticism of the countries with fossil raw materials, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) spoke out at the Bonn Climate Change Conference on the debate about phasing out oil, gas and coal. The CAT is a project of the think tanks Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute, which regularly assesses the climate policies of UN states. In its interim report “Countdown to COP28”, the experts criticize:

  • No major producer of oil and gas meets the targets to achieve the Paris climate goals
  • Governments expanded their fossil fuel subsidies instead of cutting them and continue to support investment in oil and gas infrastructure
  • The upcoming COP presidency of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) raises “serious doubts” about its ability to make the conference a success.

The study will be presented at the Bonn Climate Change Conference SB58 this Thursday and has been made available to Table.Media in advance. For their analysis, scientists have compared national and global trends in CO2 emissions, investments and policy decisions to what science demands to meet the 1.5-degree target. According to CAT calculations, the world is on a path to a “catastrophic” temperature rise of 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100 under foreseeable emission trends.

Behind the scenes, the Bonn conference is also currently discussing whether the fossil phase-out will be decided at COP28 in Dubai in December. To meet the climate targets, CO2 emissions would have to be halved by 2030 and “the production of oil and gas would eventually have to be phased out completely,” the authors reiterate the scientific consensus. Two years ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) already calculated that no new fossil fuel infrastructure must be built to meet the Paris climate targets.

Necessary but hardly visible: oil and gas phase-out

Against this background, the current CAT report criticizes:

  • No major oil and gas company has committed to ending these investments; in fact, they are increasing. “The gold rush continues,” they say.
  • Developed countries with large fossil reserves, such as Canada, the USA, Norway or Australia should lead the way and declare a phase-out of oil and gas production. But only countries with small or no fossil reserves, like France, Sweden or New Zealand would do so.
  • Most governments have failed to fulfill their promises to reduce fossil fuel subsidies.
  • Despite their pledge at COP26, the G7 countries continued to support investment in new gas infrastructure.

COP president propagates ‘distractions like CCS’

The report also opposes “distractions such as CCS” (Carbon Capture and Storage) and explicitly criticizes the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as the host of COP28. Instead of ending fossil energy, the UAE’s designated COP28 President and Minister of Industry, Sultan Al-Jaber, only seeks to end “emissions from fossils” and propagates the massive expansion of technologies such as CCS.

On the same day Al-Jaber is expected to attend the Bonn conference, the CAT report now states that CCS “does not play a relevant role in decarbonizing the energy sector because renewable energy is much cheaper in comparison and has a smaller environmental footprint.” And “the UAE’s action in support of oil, gas and CCS raises serious doubts about its capacity to negotiate an ambitious deal at COP28. The UAE is clearly pursuing an agenda that will divert attention from phasing out fossils and, if successful, lock in oil and gas production on a large scale for the future.” Thus, the opportunity to negotiate a just phase-out of oil and gas at COP28 that takes into account the urgency of decarbonization is being wasted, the report continues.

The report also sees positive trends. For example, the global phase-out of coal is progressing and the expansion of renewables is gaining momentum. But here, too, CAT urges haste: Even a declared global expansion target for renewables of 1,000 gigawatts per year by 2030, which IRENA has suggested and, for instance, is supported by the EU, is not enough; it must be “clearly greater than one terawatt.”

110 billion dollars in fossil dividends

The report argues that the current system “works for the rich”: The big oil and gas companies reportedly spent a total of 110 billion dollars in 2022 on dividends and buying back their own shares – more than the 100 billion dollars that the developed countries promised poor countries for climate aid and so far have failed to deliver.

At the same time, however, global CO2 emissions from the energy sector reached a new peak of 36.8 billion tons in 2022, so a trend reversal is not yet in sight. “The state of global climate policy,” the authors write, “has not changed much since the UN Secretary-General warned at COP27 that the world was on its way to climate hell.”

Al Jaber in Bonn and Brussels: waiting for clarity

EU Vice-President and green deal commissioner Frans Timmermans welcomes COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in Brussels.

The expectations for the next world climate conference are tremendous. This is not least evident at the interim negotiations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change currently underway in Bonn (SB58). Here, preparations are being made for COP28, which will take place in Dubai in late November. But so far, it is not entirely clear what needs to be prepared. The negotiations started with a still-ongoing dispute about the agenda, and may not even be resolved by the end of the conference.

The conflict revolves around a demand made by the EU countries that the so-called Mitigation Work Program, which is supposed to set the path to achieving the 1.5-degree target, should also be discussed at the more technical and less political negotiations in Bonn. The EU and other progressive countries wish to discuss global emission reductions not only once a year at the COPs.

A group of countries in the UN – the so-called Like-Minded Developing Countries, which also includes China, India and Saudi Arabia – strictly rejects this. Officially for formal reasons, but there is a never-ending debate about if the developed world, as the main culprit of climate change, can impose CO2 reduction requirements on developing countries. And especially if new mitigation targets for developing countries are not backed up by financial aid.

Al Jaber in Bonn: no speech planned

When COP28 President-designate Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber of the United Arab Emirates arrives at the World Conference Center in Bonn today, Thursday, he could help settle the dispute – even though he is not yet in office. If he clearly outlines his priorities for COP28, this could also help determine the composition of the agenda in Bonn to adequately prepare for fall’s COP.

So far, Al Jaber is not expected to hold a speech in Bonn. Instead, a meeting with representatives of young climate activists is scheduled. At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin in early May, Al-Jaber caused some surprise when he said that the focus should be on the gradual phase-out of “fossil fuel emissions” – not fossil fuels themselves. Since then, negotiators and environmental organizations have feared that Al-Jaber could make CO2 capture, storage and use (CCSU) the focus of his efforts and significantly dilute the phase-out of fossil fuels in the process.

Al Jaber with von der Leyen and Timmermans

After yesterday’s meeting in Brussels between Al-Jaber and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, green deal commissioner Frans Timmermans and foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell, it is not much clearer where the fossil fuel path is headed. COP28 is supposed to deliver “progress towards a just energy transition that includes a scaling-up of renewables in particular, and policies and investments to transition towards energy systems free of unabated fossil fuels,” the joint statement reads.

It is a return to a wording also used by the G7, akin to the discussions at last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh. There, more than 80 countries supported India’s proposal to phase out all fossil fuels. The EU was also among the supporters and will continue campaigning for the fossil fuel phase-out in Dubai. The fact that the upcoming COP leader now supports such a formulation could indicate that the positions of Al-Jaber and the EU are not as far apart as believed – nothing more, but also nothing less.

Maldives ambassador: ‘We are creating new islands and aim to be CO2-neutral by 2030’

Botschafter Malediven
Omar Abdul Razzak – Ambassador of the Republic of Maldives to Belgium and the European Union

According to the World Bank, sea levels are expected to rise by 10 to 100 centimeters by 2100. Based on these estimates, the Maldives could be completely submerged. How is your country preparing for this?

By 2050, 80 percent of the Maldives will be uninhabitable. The Maldivian government has set itself the goal of creating new islands protected from rising sea levels and tsunamis. These islands, for example, have strong coastal protection and are between five and six meters above mean sea level.

What is the purpose of this new island program?

Essentially, it is about creating safer habitats, as population consolidation is inevitable in these difficult times. We are already seeing the migration of small populations from their home islands to safer areas.

How do you plan for these new islands to be energy independent?

All islands have their own independent power supply based on fossil fuels, mainly diesel generators. The Maldives plans to become carbon neutral by 2030. However, there is not enough land or rooftop space in the Maldives to install solar panels. The more viable option is floating solar arrays, which could be easily placed in the Maldives’ many shallow lagoons.

These projects obviously need to be financed. How difficult is it to access climate finance?

The biggest problem we face right now is a lack of information. More specifically, the existing gaps in climate finance tracking and reporting make it difficult to improve access to climate finance. In addition, the distinction between climate finance and adaptation projects must be clearer.

How can this be implemented in concrete terms?

The Maldives receives more funding for climate change mitigation than for adaptation, even though our carbon emissions are low, and we urgently need funding for adaptation. 71 percent of the money is for climate change mitigation, 23 percent is for adaptation, and 6 percent is across sectors. Of the 200 million US dollars the Maldives receive for climate change mitigation, 80 million is earmarked as grants, and another 80 million is earmarked as loans. In comparison, the Maldives receives 70 million dollars in grants and ten million dollars in loans for adaptation.

What would be needed then to facilitate access to climate finance?

We need better data collection. For example, improved reporting on mitigation and adaptation, and improved mechanisms for tracking the financial support we have received and need. We also need data on soil erosion, sea level rise, and health risks. Current data collection mechanisms are inadequate, making risk assessments and predictions very difficult. And we desperately need capacity and technical assistance from donors, development agencies, and NGOs.

Would the loss and damage fund improve access to climate finance?

Yes, it certainly will. The good news is that surveys show that even future generations in Europe and the Western world, who are likely to be hit hard by the climate crisis, seem to support the idea of compensation payments for the consequences of climate change. How the fund and other arrangements for financing damage and loss will be fully implemented has yet to be worked out, but one thing is clear: It will continue to be an important part of the international climate agenda in 2023.

Events

June 5-14, Washington/Online
Conference The Transatlantic Climate Bridge Conference 2023
The Transatlantic Climate Bridge Conference 2023 will discuss the future of transatlantic climate action between the United States, Canada and Germany. Participants will focus on the key role of subnational actors in climate action. For example, the focus will be on how partnerships between cities, states and governments can be strengthened across the Atlantic. Info

June 5-15, Bonn
Conference Bonn Climate Change Conference
The UNFCCC conference (SB58) is the preparatory conference for the COP in November in the United Arab Emirates. Climate.Table will report on the ground with special editions. You can find a summary of interesting side events in our issue of last Monday. Info

June 8, 9:30 a.m. CEST, Online
Webinar Education for a Sustainable Future – Empowering Individuals to Tackle Climate Change
Education plays a critical role in addressing climate change as it raises awareness and builds the knowledge and skills necessary to transition to a low-carbon, sustainable future. Euractiv’s event discuss the role that education plays in building a sustainable future and empowering young people to tackle climate change. Info

June 12, 10 a.m., Bonn
Discussion Linking Loss and Damage to Conflict Affected and Fragile Settings
Climate change is a threat multiplier to sustainable development and even more so in fragile and conflict-affected states, where the livelihoods of the most vulnerable are threatened and social inequalities increased. In parallel to the climate conference in Bonn, the German Institute of Development and Sustainability is discussing this issue. Info

June 14-15, Berlin
Conference European Economic Conference – The transformation of Europe
How can we deliver on this promise permanently for Europe’s economy and society? This question will also be the central theme of the conference in 2023. In collaboration with its partners, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung will discuss Europe’s necessary transformation process Info

June 15, 4 p.m., Berlin
Discussion Climate change and disinformation
Disinformation is recognized as a vital challenge to the resilience of European democracies as it latches on to important societal debates, creating doubt and mistrust by spreading false and misleading information. The debate of the Institute for European Politics will revolve on how to tackle this problem. Info

News

Climate in Numbers: G20 electricity is becoming greener

The Bonn climate conference SB58 will also discuss a global renewable expansion target and a cutback on fossil fuel use. Negotiations on reducing fossil fuels are especially tough, with wide-ranging opposing interests. The practical implementation in each country will be even more difficult. At present, the energy transition is moving in the right direction, but far too slowly, as data from the think tank Ember show:

While renewables are being expanded faster and displacing coal from the electricity mix, progress in major emerging economies is partly canceled out by rising energy consumption. In China and India, the share of coal in the electricity mix declined, but overall, more electricity was generated from coal in these countries in 2022 than in 2015. And Indonesia, Russia and Turkey continue to rely heavily on coal. According to Ember, however, there are also signs that these countries will soon reach their coal emissions peak. nib

Dispute over hosting COP29: Bulgaria, Armenia or Azerbaijan?

When it comes to the question of where COP29 will be held in 2024, the deciding countries are currently deadlocked. Due to the confrontation between Russia and the EU, it is currently unclear who and if a country from Eastern Europe will be the next host after the UAE. The decision is actually supposed to be made at the conference in Bonn.

The Czech Republic was long considered a prime host candidate. But now the country has withdrawn its bid. For capacity reasons, according to negotiator circles.

The UN’s Eastern European regional group is next in line to host COP29. Bulgaria, Armenia and Azerbaijan are still in the running. All three presented their concepts behind closed doors in Bonn on Tuesday. The Eastern Europeans are making this decision by consensus and between themselves. Apparently, there is still no clear favorite.

Russia blocks Bulgaria

The decision is fraught with geopolitical tensions: The EU countries of the Eastern Europe Group – unsurprisingly – support Bulgaria. However, Russia, which is also part of the group, previously announced that it would veto any EU candidate. According to negotiators, the EU does not want to block the other two candidates on principle. But Brussels does not want to be blackmailed by Russia either. Nevertheless, the chances for Armenia and Azerbaijan are increasing. However, a decades-old conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is raging between the two countries.

It is now up to the chairs of the Eastern Europe Group (Albania and Slovenia) to moderate the process and reach an agreement during SB58, which will eventually be officially announced at COP28 in Dubai. If no agreement is reached, the Eastern Europe group could be skipped in the rotation of conferences, observers suggest. With Brazil already in the starting blocks to represent South America at COP30, it would then be the turn of “Western Europe and Others” again in 2024. The group is actually not in line until 2026 for COP31.

Will Australia step in for Eastern Europe?

Australia (together with a Pacific island nation) and Turkey, officially part of the “Western Europe” group, have already publicly expressed interest. Australia’s candidacy also receives support from Switzerland, the United States and Canada. It would thus be possible for one of the two countries to bring forward its candidacy to 2024, while the other would be two years later. Australia, with a new government that prioritizes climate action, had already considered a bid for COP29 last year. luk

  • Climate Policy
  • Klimapolitik

UN Climate Change Secretariat is 30 million euros short

There is a big hole in the budget of the UNFCCC’s Climate Secretariat: the UN agency is currently short about 30 million euros, Executive Director Simon Stiell said at the opening of the SB58 climate conference on Monday. The two-year budget for 2024 and 2025 is to be discussed and adopted at the meeting in Bonn. It originally totaled about 320 million euros and included about 650 positions. But in the meantime, according to internal UN information, 140 of the nearly UNFCCC-200 states are behind in their voluntary contributions, which are based on their economic strength – in some cases, with millions.

About half of the Secretariat’s budget comes from state grants and half from other sources such as fees or funds from international climate finance. Stiell’s administration now presented three possible variants for the new budget to the conference:

  • a “zero nominal growth” variant – which would actually reduce the budget due to inflation
  • a budget composed of a core budget and additional budget elements. It is based on increased administrative tasks and envisages an increase of 32.7 percent in funding to around 320 million euros
  • and a “proposed core budget” that will increase by 27 million euros over the previous years to a total of just under 90 million.

USA and China as largest debtors

Many states are stingy with their contributions to the Secretariat, which organizes the process of UN conferences and overall climate diplomacy. An overview of contributions to the UNFCCC’s core budget for 2023 shows that of the nearly 27 million grants originally expected, some 14 million have not been paid. The biggest offenders have traditionally been the USA, which has paid nothing instead of the expected 5.7 million euros, and China, which has also failed to transfer its total of 4.6 million for 2023.

The UN does not publish the figures from an additional budget, which accounts for up to two-thirds of the UNFCCC budget. The reason given was that a debate over the figures could jeopardize the ongoing negotiations.

Other major debtors in the core budget are countries such as India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Brazil. The United Arab Emirates, after all the host of COP28, has also not yet contributed anything to the core budget this year and is just under 200,000 euros behind. The European countries, on the other hand, have paid their dues.

The poor payment history for climate diplomacy has a long tradition among UN states. As early as 2019, the Secretariat’s funding gap was about 16 million euros. bpo

  • Climate diplomacy
  • UNFCCC

Study: Developed countries would have to pay 170 trillion dollars in CO2 compensation

To compensate for their excessive greenhouse gas emissions, the developed countries of the North would have to make compensation payments of 170 trillion US dollars to the countries of the Global South. This is the conclusion of a group of researchers led by Andrew Fanning of the British University of Leeds. Their study was published on Monday in Nature Sustainability.

For their calculations, the scientists assumed that the Earth’s atmosphere is a resource that is equally available to all humans. “It is a matter of climate justice that if we are asking nations to rapidly decarbonize their economies, even though they hold no responsibility for the excess emissions that are destabilizing the climate, then they should be compensated for this unfair burden,” Fanning writes.

Germans would have to pay 4619 euros – per capita and year

The research team used data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to track historical CO2 emissions since 1960 together with expected emissions up to 2050. Based on population size, this allowed them to determine how much CO2 each country would be allowed to emit in total over these 90 years in order to receive a fair share of the global carbon budget. In addition, the authors assumed that all countries actually adhere to the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees and achieving net zero emissions in 2050. This would mean that a total of 1.8 trillion tons of CO2 could still be emitted.

The 1.5-degree target was also used to derive the CO2 abatement costs, which in turn were used to calculate the CO2 price used by the research group. According to the study, the US would have to make the highest compensation payments at around 80 trillion US dollars. The EU, including the UK, would have to pay 46 trillion US dollars. The burden for Germany would be 4,619 euros per capita and year by 2050. That would be the second-highest figure after the USA. It is followed by Russia, the United Kingdom and Japan. India, on the other hand, would be the biggest beneficiary, entitled to payments totaling 57 trillion US dollars. China would be in second place with $15 trillion, followed by Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria.

The study from Leeds is not the first to examine the question of what compensation payments would be appropriate in connection with climate change. But while Fanning’s team uses the emissions budget still available (in a 1.5-degree world) as a basis for its argument, other researchers question, for example, responsibility for climate damage. A recent commentary in One Earth concluded that oil companies Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, Shell and BP should pay the highest reparations for climate damage. ch/ae

  • Climate Finance
  • Global South

UN goal of ‘energy access for all’ in jeopardy

The seventh Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) – access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030 – may be missed. That is according to a recent report by the World Bank, IRENA, the IEA and other organizations. It says 660 million people will still be without access to electricity and 1.9 billion without access to clean cooking by 2030.

While there has been progress in some sub-areas, the pace is too slow to achieve the entire SDG by 2030. In 2021, 91 percent of the global population had access to electricity. In 2010, the figure was 84 percent. However, 567 million people in Africa still do not have access – meaning this problem remained virtually unchanged from 2010.

The energy intensity of global growth thus improved by 1.8 percent per year between 2010 and 2020. In the previous decade, the figure was just 1.2 percent. However, it would take efficiency improvements of 3.4 percent per year to still achieve the energy efficiency sub-target.

Even before the pandemic, international public funding flows to expand clean energy supplies started to decline, according to IRENA. Just over 11 billion US dollars were allocated in 2021 – 35 percent less than the 2010-2019 average. Furthermore, the study found that funding was limited to a small number of countries: In 2021, 19 countries accounted for 80 percent. As a result, the expansion of wind and solar power plants has stalled. Another reason is the withdrawal of private capital from these countries. nib

  • Africa
  • Energy turnaround

Study: ice-free Arctic summers already in 2030s

A new study suggests that climate change has progressed so much that there could be an ice-free Arctic in summer in the near future. This would be a much faster development than previously assumed: As recently as 2021, the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report had assumed that with rapid emissions reductions and global warming below 2 degrees, summer ice around the North Pole could be preserved.

The new study, published in the journal Nature Communications, now predicts that even in a low-emissions scenario, summers in the Arctic will be ice-free. The first ice-free Septembers could occur as early as the 2030s.

Global impact of melting sea ice

The faster melting ice in the Arctic will have impacts and feedback effects on the global climate: The ice-free, darker surface will cause the ocean to warm faster, which will lead to a weakening of the jet stream, resulting in more extreme weather events in Europe, North America and Asia.

There is growing scientific evidence of how this vicious cycle picks up speed. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) recently reported, for example, that ocean surface temperatures reached a record high for May this year. At the same time, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere also continue to rise. The University of California at San Diego reported a new record earlier this week with a CO2 concentration of 424.5 ppm. kul

  • CO2 emissions
  • Ice Melt

South Africa has high renewable goals

Around 66 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar projects are at various stages of development in South Africa, with some 18 GW already at an advanced stage. This means that the necessary environmental permits have been obtained and feasibility studies have been conducted. This is the conclusion of the2023 South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey” by power utility Eskom and the South African wind and photovoltaic associations.

The late-stage projects could become operational within the next three years. In addition, about 19 GW of solar and 7.5 GW of wind projects are expected to be coupled with battery storage, the study says.

South Africa’s energy supply is currently both unreliable – major power outages are occurring more frequently – and very dependent on fossil energy, particularly coal. In 2021, only four percent of energy demand and nine percent of electricity demand were met by renewables. kul

  • Energy turnaround
  • Fossil energies
  • Renewable energies

Germany launches climate contracts

Since Tuesday, companies have been able to submit decarbonization plans to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) should they wish to sign a climate contract with the German government. This “preparatory procedure” will end in two months. A “bidding procedure” will then follow in winter, in which only companies that submit their plans this summer can participate. At the end of the year, the government plans to decide on the bids. The EU has not yet approved the instrument under state aid law, but according to German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, it has been approved in principle.

The BMWK plans to use climate contracts to provide financial aid to companies that convert their CO2-intensive processes to renewable energy – for example, in the steel, cement, paper or glass sectors. Climate contracts are intended to protect companies against price fluctuations of energy sources such as hydrogen and provide start-up financing. In total, a mid-double-digit billion amount is to be made available. Reuters, citing government circles, reports up to 50 billion euros. The total amount will depend on the German government’s budget planning – negotiations are still underway.

The state bears the additional costs of climate-friendly processes

Climate contracts work as follows: Companies calculate the cost per metric ton of CO2 of decarbonizing their processes. They submit this amount as a bid to the BMWK later this year. The companies that are able to convert their processes at the lowest cost are awarded the contract. The 15-year contracts guarantee the company that the state will cover the additional costs for investment and operation of the more climate-friendly processes. If the conventional production method becomes more expensive over time than the climate-friendlier way, the payment direction changes – the company then pays the state.

According to the revised draft of the subsidy guidelines, companies operating plants with CO2 emissions of at least ten kilotons are eligible to benefit. Several companies with multiple plants can apply as a consortium. A mandatory requirement is that 100 percent of the electricity used for industrial production must come from renewables. If hydrogen is used, it must meet the EU taxonomy requirements. nh

  • Decarbonization
  • Germany

Germany: 30 industrial plants responsible for eight percent of emissions

Germany’s most CO2-intensive industries are iron and steel production, followed by cement and lime production and the chemical industry. This is the conclusion of the “Dirty Thirty” study published by the Öko-Institut and WWF. 30 industrial plants together account for 8 percent of total CO2 emissions in Germany. ThyssenKrupp’s steel mill in Duisburg alone emitted almost eight million metric tons of CO2 in 2022. Overall, the industrial sector accounted for a quarter of Germany’s greenhouse gases in 2021.

“Individual companies have an enormous impact on whether Germany can achieve its climate goals,” the authors write, noting that the “upcoming major investment cycles must be used now to achieve climate neutrality by 2045.”

It is already clear which adjustments need to be made: According to the report, steel production should be converted to green hydrogen, and the cement industry must reduce the proportion of clinker in its cement. There is also a need for a consistent circular economy, sustainable public procurement and a swift end to the allocation of free pollution rights in European emissions trading. maw

  • CO2 emissions
  • Emissionen
  • Hydrogen

Opinion

End ‘delaying tactics’ on loss and damage fund

By Harjeet Singh
Harjeet Singh, Head of Global Political Strategy, CAN

In recent years, the world has witnessed a series of devastating climate disasters. Severe storms, unprecedented heatwaves, and wildfires have underscored the growing impact of climate change. Coastal regions are experiencing stronger storms and rising sea levels, while inland areas face prolonged droughts and water scarcity.

These disasters illustrate how much the situation has deteriorated due to the global temperature. The consequences are felt globally, with developing countries bearing a disproportionate burden in terms of lives lost, displacement, economic disruptions, and ecological damage. 

The fund, a momentous decision

At COP27 in Sharm-el-Sheikh, a momentous decision was reached to establish a new loss and damage fund to address the impacts of climate change on vulnerable countries and communities. The outcome also recognized the importance of funding arrangements such as humanitarian aid and bilateral and multilateral financing in response to climate disasters.

The Transitional Committee, comprising 24 members with 10 from developed and 14 from developing countries, was established at COP27. Its mandate is to make recommendations on the operationalization of both the new funding arrangements and the Loss and Damage Fund for consideration and adoption at COP28. The committee’s work will be informed by inputs from various events, including the second Glasgow Dialogue during the mid-year session of the UNFCCC in the German city of Bonn

Delaying tactics of wealthier nations

However, it is disheartening to witness certain parties prioritizing funding arrangements outside the UNFCCC over the crucial operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund by COP28. This narrow perspective undermines the gravity of the situation and the urgent need for comprehensive support.

The UNFCCC synthesis report has clearly highlighted the staggering financial requirements, projecting the need for 290 to 580 billion US dollars by 2030, rising to 1 trillion US dollars by 2050 in developing countries alone. These figures underscore the substantial funding gap in addressing loss and damage. It is vital to acknowledge that this situation arises from the inaction, obstruction, and delaying tactics employed by wealthier nations regarding loss and damage finance over the past years.

The imperative: Protecting the rights of those affected

Moving forward, it is imperative that we demonstrate greater ambition and creativity, developing new solutions that adequately respond to the needs of the most vulnerable communities. Our actions should not be constrained by the current context or available resources; instead, they should be driven by the imperative to protect the rights of those impacted by climate change. We must not shy away from establishing new systems and institutions to address this crisis effectively. 

The operationalization of the loss and damage fund must be guided by principles such as international cooperation and solidarity, historical responsibility, the precautionary principle – which means that people should be protected from possible risks -, and the polluter pays principle.

Local ownership, an adaptable system

The fund should provide new and additional, adequate, and predictable finance that meets the needs of vulnerable communities and countries. It should prioritize local ownership, encompass gender responsiveness, ensure equitable representation, and be public and grant-based. The fund must be balanced, comprehensive – covering the range of climate impacts from extreme weather to slow onset events as well as responding to economic and non-economic aspects of losses and damages – and safeguard human rights

Our goal for COP28 should extend beyond the mere creation or rebranding of institutions for the sake of political gains or media attention. True success lies in establishing an agile and adaptable system that learns from emerging challenges, actively engages affected communities, scales up proven solutions, and develops new approaches as needed.

Public funding sources, subsidy reduction, new levies

The allocation of resources to the fund must align with the magnitude of the needs it aims to address. Public finance must serve as the primary source of funding, supplemented by additional avenues such as redirecting fossil fuel subsidies, implementing a levy on fossil fuel extraction, and introducing progressive taxes on financial transactions, shipping, and aviation sectors.

It is crucial that this system is built on the principles of responsibility and accountability towards those confronting the climate emergency.

Time is running out rapidly, demanding our collective rejection of complacency and half-hearted efforts. Establishing an effective loss and damage fund is not an option; it is both a moral and legal imperative. Let us seize this opportunity to create a robust system that provides the necessary support and protection to those most affected by climate change. Our response must reflect the urgency and gravity of the situation, showcasing an unwavering commitment to a fair, just, resilient, and sustainable future. 

Harjeet Singh is Head of Global Political Strategy at Climate Action Network International (CAN).

Climate.Table editorial office

EDITORIAL CLIMATE.TABLE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    It is the big crux of international climate policy: If the climate crisis is to be stopped, fossil fuels cannot continue to be burned. But a new study shows: Oil and gas countries continue to invest in their extraction, consumer countries increase fossil subsidies instead of cutting them. This is the path to 2.7 degrees of warming, the report warns. COP28 could be a failure before it even started. And it is no coincidence that this loud alarm, with harsh criticism of the next COP host, the United Arab Emirates, comes on the day that COP President-elect Sultan Al Jaber visits Bonn.

    At the Bonn climate change conference SB58, there is also a struggle over money. Billions are at stake for a loss and damage fund. But many rich countries are using “delaying tactics“, criticizes Harjeet Singh of CAN International. The UN states are also stingy when it comes to funding the UN Climate Change Secretariat – even though it is only a comparatively measly 30 million euros. The sums rich developed countries would have to pay to the countries of the Global South for their historic climate debt are far greater: 170 trillion US dollars, according to a new study. The Maldives also require more money, and are now building new islands to protect themselves from sinking, as their EU ambassador explains in an interview.

    In any case, we will be closely observing developments in Bonn and elsewhere.

    Your
    Nico Beckert
    Image of Nico  Beckert

    Feature

    Study warns of failing COP28

    Protest gegen Willow-Öl Projekt vor Weißem Haus
    Approved by the US government in spring 2023: new oil project in Alaska

    With an urgent plea to change course and sharp criticism of the countries with fossil raw materials, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) spoke out at the Bonn Climate Change Conference on the debate about phasing out oil, gas and coal. The CAT is a project of the think tanks Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute, which regularly assesses the climate policies of UN states. In its interim report “Countdown to COP28”, the experts criticize:

    • No major producer of oil and gas meets the targets to achieve the Paris climate goals
    • Governments expanded their fossil fuel subsidies instead of cutting them and continue to support investment in oil and gas infrastructure
    • The upcoming COP presidency of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) raises “serious doubts” about its ability to make the conference a success.

    The study will be presented at the Bonn Climate Change Conference SB58 this Thursday and has been made available to Table.Media in advance. For their analysis, scientists have compared national and global trends in CO2 emissions, investments and policy decisions to what science demands to meet the 1.5-degree target. According to CAT calculations, the world is on a path to a “catastrophic” temperature rise of 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100 under foreseeable emission trends.

    Behind the scenes, the Bonn conference is also currently discussing whether the fossil phase-out will be decided at COP28 in Dubai in December. To meet the climate targets, CO2 emissions would have to be halved by 2030 and “the production of oil and gas would eventually have to be phased out completely,” the authors reiterate the scientific consensus. Two years ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) already calculated that no new fossil fuel infrastructure must be built to meet the Paris climate targets.

    Necessary but hardly visible: oil and gas phase-out

    Against this background, the current CAT report criticizes:

    • No major oil and gas company has committed to ending these investments; in fact, they are increasing. “The gold rush continues,” they say.
    • Developed countries with large fossil reserves, such as Canada, the USA, Norway or Australia should lead the way and declare a phase-out of oil and gas production. But only countries with small or no fossil reserves, like France, Sweden or New Zealand would do so.
    • Most governments have failed to fulfill their promises to reduce fossil fuel subsidies.
    • Despite their pledge at COP26, the G7 countries continued to support investment in new gas infrastructure.

    COP president propagates ‘distractions like CCS’

    The report also opposes “distractions such as CCS” (Carbon Capture and Storage) and explicitly criticizes the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as the host of COP28. Instead of ending fossil energy, the UAE’s designated COP28 President and Minister of Industry, Sultan Al-Jaber, only seeks to end “emissions from fossils” and propagates the massive expansion of technologies such as CCS.

    On the same day Al-Jaber is expected to attend the Bonn conference, the CAT report now states that CCS “does not play a relevant role in decarbonizing the energy sector because renewable energy is much cheaper in comparison and has a smaller environmental footprint.” And “the UAE’s action in support of oil, gas and CCS raises serious doubts about its capacity to negotiate an ambitious deal at COP28. The UAE is clearly pursuing an agenda that will divert attention from phasing out fossils and, if successful, lock in oil and gas production on a large scale for the future.” Thus, the opportunity to negotiate a just phase-out of oil and gas at COP28 that takes into account the urgency of decarbonization is being wasted, the report continues.

    The report also sees positive trends. For example, the global phase-out of coal is progressing and the expansion of renewables is gaining momentum. But here, too, CAT urges haste: Even a declared global expansion target for renewables of 1,000 gigawatts per year by 2030, which IRENA has suggested and, for instance, is supported by the EU, is not enough; it must be “clearly greater than one terawatt.”

    110 billion dollars in fossil dividends

    The report argues that the current system “works for the rich”: The big oil and gas companies reportedly spent a total of 110 billion dollars in 2022 on dividends and buying back their own shares – more than the 100 billion dollars that the developed countries promised poor countries for climate aid and so far have failed to deliver.

    At the same time, however, global CO2 emissions from the energy sector reached a new peak of 36.8 billion tons in 2022, so a trend reversal is not yet in sight. “The state of global climate policy,” the authors write, “has not changed much since the UN Secretary-General warned at COP27 that the world was on its way to climate hell.”

    Al Jaber in Bonn and Brussels: waiting for clarity

    EU Vice-President and green deal commissioner Frans Timmermans welcomes COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber in Brussels.

    The expectations for the next world climate conference are tremendous. This is not least evident at the interim negotiations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change currently underway in Bonn (SB58). Here, preparations are being made for COP28, which will take place in Dubai in late November. But so far, it is not entirely clear what needs to be prepared. The negotiations started with a still-ongoing dispute about the agenda, and may not even be resolved by the end of the conference.

    The conflict revolves around a demand made by the EU countries that the so-called Mitigation Work Program, which is supposed to set the path to achieving the 1.5-degree target, should also be discussed at the more technical and less political negotiations in Bonn. The EU and other progressive countries wish to discuss global emission reductions not only once a year at the COPs.

    A group of countries in the UN – the so-called Like-Minded Developing Countries, which also includes China, India and Saudi Arabia – strictly rejects this. Officially for formal reasons, but there is a never-ending debate about if the developed world, as the main culprit of climate change, can impose CO2 reduction requirements on developing countries. And especially if new mitigation targets for developing countries are not backed up by financial aid.

    Al Jaber in Bonn: no speech planned

    When COP28 President-designate Sultan Ahmed Al-Jaber of the United Arab Emirates arrives at the World Conference Center in Bonn today, Thursday, he could help settle the dispute – even though he is not yet in office. If he clearly outlines his priorities for COP28, this could also help determine the composition of the agenda in Bonn to adequately prepare for fall’s COP.

    So far, Al Jaber is not expected to hold a speech in Bonn. Instead, a meeting with representatives of young climate activists is scheduled. At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin in early May, Al-Jaber caused some surprise when he said that the focus should be on the gradual phase-out of “fossil fuel emissions” – not fossil fuels themselves. Since then, negotiators and environmental organizations have feared that Al-Jaber could make CO2 capture, storage and use (CCSU) the focus of his efforts and significantly dilute the phase-out of fossil fuels in the process.

    Al Jaber with von der Leyen and Timmermans

    After yesterday’s meeting in Brussels between Al-Jaber and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, green deal commissioner Frans Timmermans and foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell, it is not much clearer where the fossil fuel path is headed. COP28 is supposed to deliver “progress towards a just energy transition that includes a scaling-up of renewables in particular, and policies and investments to transition towards energy systems free of unabated fossil fuels,” the joint statement reads.

    It is a return to a wording also used by the G7, akin to the discussions at last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh. There, more than 80 countries supported India’s proposal to phase out all fossil fuels. The EU was also among the supporters and will continue campaigning for the fossil fuel phase-out in Dubai. The fact that the upcoming COP leader now supports such a formulation could indicate that the positions of Al-Jaber and the EU are not as far apart as believed – nothing more, but also nothing less.

    Maldives ambassador: ‘We are creating new islands and aim to be CO2-neutral by 2030’

    Botschafter Malediven
    Omar Abdul Razzak – Ambassador of the Republic of Maldives to Belgium and the European Union

    According to the World Bank, sea levels are expected to rise by 10 to 100 centimeters by 2100. Based on these estimates, the Maldives could be completely submerged. How is your country preparing for this?

    By 2050, 80 percent of the Maldives will be uninhabitable. The Maldivian government has set itself the goal of creating new islands protected from rising sea levels and tsunamis. These islands, for example, have strong coastal protection and are between five and six meters above mean sea level.

    What is the purpose of this new island program?

    Essentially, it is about creating safer habitats, as population consolidation is inevitable in these difficult times. We are already seeing the migration of small populations from their home islands to safer areas.

    How do you plan for these new islands to be energy independent?

    All islands have their own independent power supply based on fossil fuels, mainly diesel generators. The Maldives plans to become carbon neutral by 2030. However, there is not enough land or rooftop space in the Maldives to install solar panels. The more viable option is floating solar arrays, which could be easily placed in the Maldives’ many shallow lagoons.

    These projects obviously need to be financed. How difficult is it to access climate finance?

    The biggest problem we face right now is a lack of information. More specifically, the existing gaps in climate finance tracking and reporting make it difficult to improve access to climate finance. In addition, the distinction between climate finance and adaptation projects must be clearer.

    How can this be implemented in concrete terms?

    The Maldives receives more funding for climate change mitigation than for adaptation, even though our carbon emissions are low, and we urgently need funding for adaptation. 71 percent of the money is for climate change mitigation, 23 percent is for adaptation, and 6 percent is across sectors. Of the 200 million US dollars the Maldives receive for climate change mitigation, 80 million is earmarked as grants, and another 80 million is earmarked as loans. In comparison, the Maldives receives 70 million dollars in grants and ten million dollars in loans for adaptation.

    What would be needed then to facilitate access to climate finance?

    We need better data collection. For example, improved reporting on mitigation and adaptation, and improved mechanisms for tracking the financial support we have received and need. We also need data on soil erosion, sea level rise, and health risks. Current data collection mechanisms are inadequate, making risk assessments and predictions very difficult. And we desperately need capacity and technical assistance from donors, development agencies, and NGOs.

    Would the loss and damage fund improve access to climate finance?

    Yes, it certainly will. The good news is that surveys show that even future generations in Europe and the Western world, who are likely to be hit hard by the climate crisis, seem to support the idea of compensation payments for the consequences of climate change. How the fund and other arrangements for financing damage and loss will be fully implemented has yet to be worked out, but one thing is clear: It will continue to be an important part of the international climate agenda in 2023.

    Events

    June 5-14, Washington/Online
    Conference The Transatlantic Climate Bridge Conference 2023
    The Transatlantic Climate Bridge Conference 2023 will discuss the future of transatlantic climate action between the United States, Canada and Germany. Participants will focus on the key role of subnational actors in climate action. For example, the focus will be on how partnerships between cities, states and governments can be strengthened across the Atlantic. Info

    June 5-15, Bonn
    Conference Bonn Climate Change Conference
    The UNFCCC conference (SB58) is the preparatory conference for the COP in November in the United Arab Emirates. Climate.Table will report on the ground with special editions. You can find a summary of interesting side events in our issue of last Monday. Info

    June 8, 9:30 a.m. CEST, Online
    Webinar Education for a Sustainable Future – Empowering Individuals to Tackle Climate Change
    Education plays a critical role in addressing climate change as it raises awareness and builds the knowledge and skills necessary to transition to a low-carbon, sustainable future. Euractiv’s event discuss the role that education plays in building a sustainable future and empowering young people to tackle climate change. Info

    June 12, 10 a.m., Bonn
    Discussion Linking Loss and Damage to Conflict Affected and Fragile Settings
    Climate change is a threat multiplier to sustainable development and even more so in fragile and conflict-affected states, where the livelihoods of the most vulnerable are threatened and social inequalities increased. In parallel to the climate conference in Bonn, the German Institute of Development and Sustainability is discussing this issue. Info

    June 14-15, Berlin
    Conference European Economic Conference – The transformation of Europe
    How can we deliver on this promise permanently for Europe’s economy and society? This question will also be the central theme of the conference in 2023. In collaboration with its partners, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung will discuss Europe’s necessary transformation process Info

    June 15, 4 p.m., Berlin
    Discussion Climate change and disinformation
    Disinformation is recognized as a vital challenge to the resilience of European democracies as it latches on to important societal debates, creating doubt and mistrust by spreading false and misleading information. The debate of the Institute for European Politics will revolve on how to tackle this problem. Info

    News

    Climate in Numbers: G20 electricity is becoming greener

    The Bonn climate conference SB58 will also discuss a global renewable expansion target and a cutback on fossil fuel use. Negotiations on reducing fossil fuels are especially tough, with wide-ranging opposing interests. The practical implementation in each country will be even more difficult. At present, the energy transition is moving in the right direction, but far too slowly, as data from the think tank Ember show:

    While renewables are being expanded faster and displacing coal from the electricity mix, progress in major emerging economies is partly canceled out by rising energy consumption. In China and India, the share of coal in the electricity mix declined, but overall, more electricity was generated from coal in these countries in 2022 than in 2015. And Indonesia, Russia and Turkey continue to rely heavily on coal. According to Ember, however, there are also signs that these countries will soon reach their coal emissions peak. nib

    Dispute over hosting COP29: Bulgaria, Armenia or Azerbaijan?

    When it comes to the question of where COP29 will be held in 2024, the deciding countries are currently deadlocked. Due to the confrontation between Russia and the EU, it is currently unclear who and if a country from Eastern Europe will be the next host after the UAE. The decision is actually supposed to be made at the conference in Bonn.

    The Czech Republic was long considered a prime host candidate. But now the country has withdrawn its bid. For capacity reasons, according to negotiator circles.

    The UN’s Eastern European regional group is next in line to host COP29. Bulgaria, Armenia and Azerbaijan are still in the running. All three presented their concepts behind closed doors in Bonn on Tuesday. The Eastern Europeans are making this decision by consensus and between themselves. Apparently, there is still no clear favorite.

    Russia blocks Bulgaria

    The decision is fraught with geopolitical tensions: The EU countries of the Eastern Europe Group – unsurprisingly – support Bulgaria. However, Russia, which is also part of the group, previously announced that it would veto any EU candidate. According to negotiators, the EU does not want to block the other two candidates on principle. But Brussels does not want to be blackmailed by Russia either. Nevertheless, the chances for Armenia and Azerbaijan are increasing. However, a decades-old conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region is raging between the two countries.

    It is now up to the chairs of the Eastern Europe Group (Albania and Slovenia) to moderate the process and reach an agreement during SB58, which will eventually be officially announced at COP28 in Dubai. If no agreement is reached, the Eastern Europe group could be skipped in the rotation of conferences, observers suggest. With Brazil already in the starting blocks to represent South America at COP30, it would then be the turn of “Western Europe and Others” again in 2024. The group is actually not in line until 2026 for COP31.

    Will Australia step in for Eastern Europe?

    Australia (together with a Pacific island nation) and Turkey, officially part of the “Western Europe” group, have already publicly expressed interest. Australia’s candidacy also receives support from Switzerland, the United States and Canada. It would thus be possible for one of the two countries to bring forward its candidacy to 2024, while the other would be two years later. Australia, with a new government that prioritizes climate action, had already considered a bid for COP29 last year. luk

    • Climate Policy
    • Klimapolitik

    UN Climate Change Secretariat is 30 million euros short

    There is a big hole in the budget of the UNFCCC’s Climate Secretariat: the UN agency is currently short about 30 million euros, Executive Director Simon Stiell said at the opening of the SB58 climate conference on Monday. The two-year budget for 2024 and 2025 is to be discussed and adopted at the meeting in Bonn. It originally totaled about 320 million euros and included about 650 positions. But in the meantime, according to internal UN information, 140 of the nearly UNFCCC-200 states are behind in their voluntary contributions, which are based on their economic strength – in some cases, with millions.

    About half of the Secretariat’s budget comes from state grants and half from other sources such as fees or funds from international climate finance. Stiell’s administration now presented three possible variants for the new budget to the conference:

    • a “zero nominal growth” variant – which would actually reduce the budget due to inflation
    • a budget composed of a core budget and additional budget elements. It is based on increased administrative tasks and envisages an increase of 32.7 percent in funding to around 320 million euros
    • and a “proposed core budget” that will increase by 27 million euros over the previous years to a total of just under 90 million.

    USA and China as largest debtors

    Many states are stingy with their contributions to the Secretariat, which organizes the process of UN conferences and overall climate diplomacy. An overview of contributions to the UNFCCC’s core budget for 2023 shows that of the nearly 27 million grants originally expected, some 14 million have not been paid. The biggest offenders have traditionally been the USA, which has paid nothing instead of the expected 5.7 million euros, and China, which has also failed to transfer its total of 4.6 million for 2023.

    The UN does not publish the figures from an additional budget, which accounts for up to two-thirds of the UNFCCC budget. The reason given was that a debate over the figures could jeopardize the ongoing negotiations.

    Other major debtors in the core budget are countries such as India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Brazil. The United Arab Emirates, after all the host of COP28, has also not yet contributed anything to the core budget this year and is just under 200,000 euros behind. The European countries, on the other hand, have paid their dues.

    The poor payment history for climate diplomacy has a long tradition among UN states. As early as 2019, the Secretariat’s funding gap was about 16 million euros. bpo

    • Climate diplomacy
    • UNFCCC

    Study: Developed countries would have to pay 170 trillion dollars in CO2 compensation

    To compensate for their excessive greenhouse gas emissions, the developed countries of the North would have to make compensation payments of 170 trillion US dollars to the countries of the Global South. This is the conclusion of a group of researchers led by Andrew Fanning of the British University of Leeds. Their study was published on Monday in Nature Sustainability.

    For their calculations, the scientists assumed that the Earth’s atmosphere is a resource that is equally available to all humans. “It is a matter of climate justice that if we are asking nations to rapidly decarbonize their economies, even though they hold no responsibility for the excess emissions that are destabilizing the climate, then they should be compensated for this unfair burden,” Fanning writes.

    Germans would have to pay 4619 euros – per capita and year

    The research team used data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to track historical CO2 emissions since 1960 together with expected emissions up to 2050. Based on population size, this allowed them to determine how much CO2 each country would be allowed to emit in total over these 90 years in order to receive a fair share of the global carbon budget. In addition, the authors assumed that all countries actually adhere to the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees and achieving net zero emissions in 2050. This would mean that a total of 1.8 trillion tons of CO2 could still be emitted.

    The 1.5-degree target was also used to derive the CO2 abatement costs, which in turn were used to calculate the CO2 price used by the research group. According to the study, the US would have to make the highest compensation payments at around 80 trillion US dollars. The EU, including the UK, would have to pay 46 trillion US dollars. The burden for Germany would be 4,619 euros per capita and year by 2050. That would be the second-highest figure after the USA. It is followed by Russia, the United Kingdom and Japan. India, on the other hand, would be the biggest beneficiary, entitled to payments totaling 57 trillion US dollars. China would be in second place with $15 trillion, followed by Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria.

    The study from Leeds is not the first to examine the question of what compensation payments would be appropriate in connection with climate change. But while Fanning’s team uses the emissions budget still available (in a 1.5-degree world) as a basis for its argument, other researchers question, for example, responsibility for climate damage. A recent commentary in One Earth concluded that oil companies Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, Shell and BP should pay the highest reparations for climate damage. ch/ae

    • Climate Finance
    • Global South

    UN goal of ‘energy access for all’ in jeopardy

    The seventh Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) – access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030 – may be missed. That is according to a recent report by the World Bank, IRENA, the IEA and other organizations. It says 660 million people will still be without access to electricity and 1.9 billion without access to clean cooking by 2030.

    While there has been progress in some sub-areas, the pace is too slow to achieve the entire SDG by 2030. In 2021, 91 percent of the global population had access to electricity. In 2010, the figure was 84 percent. However, 567 million people in Africa still do not have access – meaning this problem remained virtually unchanged from 2010.

    The energy intensity of global growth thus improved by 1.8 percent per year between 2010 and 2020. In the previous decade, the figure was just 1.2 percent. However, it would take efficiency improvements of 3.4 percent per year to still achieve the energy efficiency sub-target.

    Even before the pandemic, international public funding flows to expand clean energy supplies started to decline, according to IRENA. Just over 11 billion US dollars were allocated in 2021 – 35 percent less than the 2010-2019 average. Furthermore, the study found that funding was limited to a small number of countries: In 2021, 19 countries accounted for 80 percent. As a result, the expansion of wind and solar power plants has stalled. Another reason is the withdrawal of private capital from these countries. nib

    • Africa
    • Energy turnaround

    Study: ice-free Arctic summers already in 2030s

    A new study suggests that climate change has progressed so much that there could be an ice-free Arctic in summer in the near future. This would be a much faster development than previously assumed: As recently as 2021, the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report had assumed that with rapid emissions reductions and global warming below 2 degrees, summer ice around the North Pole could be preserved.

    The new study, published in the journal Nature Communications, now predicts that even in a low-emissions scenario, summers in the Arctic will be ice-free. The first ice-free Septembers could occur as early as the 2030s.

    Global impact of melting sea ice

    The faster melting ice in the Arctic will have impacts and feedback effects on the global climate: The ice-free, darker surface will cause the ocean to warm faster, which will lead to a weakening of the jet stream, resulting in more extreme weather events in Europe, North America and Asia.

    There is growing scientific evidence of how this vicious cycle picks up speed. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) recently reported, for example, that ocean surface temperatures reached a record high for May this year. At the same time, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere also continue to rise. The University of California at San Diego reported a new record earlier this week with a CO2 concentration of 424.5 ppm. kul

    • CO2 emissions
    • Ice Melt

    South Africa has high renewable goals

    Around 66 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar projects are at various stages of development in South Africa, with some 18 GW already at an advanced stage. This means that the necessary environmental permits have been obtained and feasibility studies have been conducted. This is the conclusion of the2023 South African Renewable Energy Grid Survey” by power utility Eskom and the South African wind and photovoltaic associations.

    The late-stage projects could become operational within the next three years. In addition, about 19 GW of solar and 7.5 GW of wind projects are expected to be coupled with battery storage, the study says.

    South Africa’s energy supply is currently both unreliable – major power outages are occurring more frequently – and very dependent on fossil energy, particularly coal. In 2021, only four percent of energy demand and nine percent of electricity demand were met by renewables. kul

    • Energy turnaround
    • Fossil energies
    • Renewable energies

    Germany launches climate contracts

    Since Tuesday, companies have been able to submit decarbonization plans to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) should they wish to sign a climate contract with the German government. This “preparatory procedure” will end in two months. A “bidding procedure” will then follow in winter, in which only companies that submit their plans this summer can participate. At the end of the year, the government plans to decide on the bids. The EU has not yet approved the instrument under state aid law, but according to German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, it has been approved in principle.

    The BMWK plans to use climate contracts to provide financial aid to companies that convert their CO2-intensive processes to renewable energy – for example, in the steel, cement, paper or glass sectors. Climate contracts are intended to protect companies against price fluctuations of energy sources such as hydrogen and provide start-up financing. In total, a mid-double-digit billion amount is to be made available. Reuters, citing government circles, reports up to 50 billion euros. The total amount will depend on the German government’s budget planning – negotiations are still underway.

    The state bears the additional costs of climate-friendly processes

    Climate contracts work as follows: Companies calculate the cost per metric ton of CO2 of decarbonizing their processes. They submit this amount as a bid to the BMWK later this year. The companies that are able to convert their processes at the lowest cost are awarded the contract. The 15-year contracts guarantee the company that the state will cover the additional costs for investment and operation of the more climate-friendly processes. If the conventional production method becomes more expensive over time than the climate-friendlier way, the payment direction changes – the company then pays the state.

    According to the revised draft of the subsidy guidelines, companies operating plants with CO2 emissions of at least ten kilotons are eligible to benefit. Several companies with multiple plants can apply as a consortium. A mandatory requirement is that 100 percent of the electricity used for industrial production must come from renewables. If hydrogen is used, it must meet the EU taxonomy requirements. nh

    • Decarbonization
    • Germany

    Germany: 30 industrial plants responsible for eight percent of emissions

    Germany’s most CO2-intensive industries are iron and steel production, followed by cement and lime production and the chemical industry. This is the conclusion of the “Dirty Thirty” study published by the Öko-Institut and WWF. 30 industrial plants together account for 8 percent of total CO2 emissions in Germany. ThyssenKrupp’s steel mill in Duisburg alone emitted almost eight million metric tons of CO2 in 2022. Overall, the industrial sector accounted for a quarter of Germany’s greenhouse gases in 2021.

    “Individual companies have an enormous impact on whether Germany can achieve its climate goals,” the authors write, noting that the “upcoming major investment cycles must be used now to achieve climate neutrality by 2045.”

    It is already clear which adjustments need to be made: According to the report, steel production should be converted to green hydrogen, and the cement industry must reduce the proportion of clinker in its cement. There is also a need for a consistent circular economy, sustainable public procurement and a swift end to the allocation of free pollution rights in European emissions trading. maw

    • CO2 emissions
    • Emissionen
    • Hydrogen

    Opinion

    End ‘delaying tactics’ on loss and damage fund

    By Harjeet Singh
    Harjeet Singh, Head of Global Political Strategy, CAN

    In recent years, the world has witnessed a series of devastating climate disasters. Severe storms, unprecedented heatwaves, and wildfires have underscored the growing impact of climate change. Coastal regions are experiencing stronger storms and rising sea levels, while inland areas face prolonged droughts and water scarcity.

    These disasters illustrate how much the situation has deteriorated due to the global temperature. The consequences are felt globally, with developing countries bearing a disproportionate burden in terms of lives lost, displacement, economic disruptions, and ecological damage. 

    The fund, a momentous decision

    At COP27 in Sharm-el-Sheikh, a momentous decision was reached to establish a new loss and damage fund to address the impacts of climate change on vulnerable countries and communities. The outcome also recognized the importance of funding arrangements such as humanitarian aid and bilateral and multilateral financing in response to climate disasters.

    The Transitional Committee, comprising 24 members with 10 from developed and 14 from developing countries, was established at COP27. Its mandate is to make recommendations on the operationalization of both the new funding arrangements and the Loss and Damage Fund for consideration and adoption at COP28. The committee’s work will be informed by inputs from various events, including the second Glasgow Dialogue during the mid-year session of the UNFCCC in the German city of Bonn

    Delaying tactics of wealthier nations

    However, it is disheartening to witness certain parties prioritizing funding arrangements outside the UNFCCC over the crucial operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund by COP28. This narrow perspective undermines the gravity of the situation and the urgent need for comprehensive support.

    The UNFCCC synthesis report has clearly highlighted the staggering financial requirements, projecting the need for 290 to 580 billion US dollars by 2030, rising to 1 trillion US dollars by 2050 in developing countries alone. These figures underscore the substantial funding gap in addressing loss and damage. It is vital to acknowledge that this situation arises from the inaction, obstruction, and delaying tactics employed by wealthier nations regarding loss and damage finance over the past years.

    The imperative: Protecting the rights of those affected

    Moving forward, it is imperative that we demonstrate greater ambition and creativity, developing new solutions that adequately respond to the needs of the most vulnerable communities. Our actions should not be constrained by the current context or available resources; instead, they should be driven by the imperative to protect the rights of those impacted by climate change. We must not shy away from establishing new systems and institutions to address this crisis effectively. 

    The operationalization of the loss and damage fund must be guided by principles such as international cooperation and solidarity, historical responsibility, the precautionary principle – which means that people should be protected from possible risks -, and the polluter pays principle.

    Local ownership, an adaptable system

    The fund should provide new and additional, adequate, and predictable finance that meets the needs of vulnerable communities and countries. It should prioritize local ownership, encompass gender responsiveness, ensure equitable representation, and be public and grant-based. The fund must be balanced, comprehensive – covering the range of climate impacts from extreme weather to slow onset events as well as responding to economic and non-economic aspects of losses and damages – and safeguard human rights

    Our goal for COP28 should extend beyond the mere creation or rebranding of institutions for the sake of political gains or media attention. True success lies in establishing an agile and adaptable system that learns from emerging challenges, actively engages affected communities, scales up proven solutions, and develops new approaches as needed.

    Public funding sources, subsidy reduction, new levies

    The allocation of resources to the fund must align with the magnitude of the needs it aims to address. Public finance must serve as the primary source of funding, supplemented by additional avenues such as redirecting fossil fuel subsidies, implementing a levy on fossil fuel extraction, and introducing progressive taxes on financial transactions, shipping, and aviation sectors.

    It is crucial that this system is built on the principles of responsibility and accountability towards those confronting the climate emergency.

    Time is running out rapidly, demanding our collective rejection of complacency and half-hearted efforts. Establishing an effective loss and damage fund is not an option; it is both a moral and legal imperative. Let us seize this opportunity to create a robust system that provides the necessary support and protection to those most affected by climate change. Our response must reflect the urgency and gravity of the situation, showcasing an unwavering commitment to a fair, just, resilient, and sustainable future. 

    Harjeet Singh is Head of Global Political Strategy at Climate Action Network International (CAN).

    Climate.Table editorial office

    EDITORIAL CLIMATE.TABLE

    Licenses:

      Sign up now and continue reading immediately

      No credit card details required. No automatic renewal.

      Sie haben bereits das Table.Briefing Abonnement?

      Anmelden und weiterlesen