This newsletter swings between glimmers of hope and despair when it comes to global emissions. The bad news first: While global emissions would have to fall by 8 percent to meet the 1.5-degree limit, they increased by 1.4 percent last year. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) promises that better times lie ahead: The global energy transition is “unstoppable,” and carbon emissions will peak as early as 2025, according to the latest World Energy Outlook.
This week, we also look to the US, which invests billions in developing a hydrogen economy, and to Indonesia. There, the energy transition is only making slow progress and green money could even flow into coal-fired power plants. We also have an eye on Brussels politics and explain why wind power could become more expensive in the EU and the EU’s response to the Inflation Reduction Act.
In addition, find out why a professional midfield football player understands more about the climate than some politicians.
With us, you’ll keep an eye on everything – and maybe even a little hope.
Your Lisa Kuner
Feature
Wagenknecht wants to break with Germany’s previous climate policy
On Monday, Sahra Wagenknecht resigned from the German Left Party and announced the formation of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (“Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance”).
The “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW) calls for a fundamentally different climate policy in Germany and Europe. The Alliance thus breaks with the most important previous elements of Germany’s policy area. Unlike the consensus of all parliamentary groups in the German Bundestag (with the exception of the AfD), the BSW rejects the emissions trading instrument, opposes an energy supply based entirely on renewables and advocates importing Russian gas. The energy and climate policy ideas of the newly founded association and precursor to a future political party, “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Für Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit” (“Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – For Reason and Justice”) are, however, still general. Some of them do not stand up to scrutiny.
Wagenknecht and her peers do not focus on the climate at the beginning of their political journey. They do not set any goals of their own and have not yet presented any alternative ideas on how the national, European and international climate goals could be achieved. Instead, they focus on general criticism of current policies in Berlin and Brussels. “Blind activism and ill-considered measures do not help the climate, but they jeopardize our economic substance,” writes the BSW.
Against price signals and emissions trading
Specifically, the Alliance supports “proposals that provide more climate action while not endangering the prosperity of our country. We reject climate action that makes people poor and endangers Germany as a business location,” it says on its homepage.
This includes, according to the Alliance, the price signals of the planned German and European emissions trading. “Rising prices do not even have a climate policy effect,” they claim, for example, if there is a lack of public alternatives to car travel, which is why rail services, in particular, should be expanded. However, this statement is contradicted by research results showing that “monetary incentives play the most important role as a single measure in saving energy.”
“Increasingly expensive emission allowances that only drive important industries out of Europe do just as little to help the climate,” writes the Alliance. Figures from the EU Commission also contradict this view. For instance, emissions in the EU decreased by 24 percent from 1990 to 2019, while the economy grew by 60 percent. The highest reductions occurred in sectors that are subject to emissions trading.
Hope for technology, net zero 2045 not mentioned
The “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” also rejects the EU regulation on the phase-out of combustion technology in cars from 2035. What is needed are “more fuel-efficient internal combustion engines and intensive research into eco-friendly fuels.”
Germany’s “decisive contribution” to international climate policy is the “development of future technologies.” This requires better framework conditions. More goods transported via rail, less bureaucracy. These technologies also include the development of a hydrogen economy. The German government funds 62 projects in this field with a total of eight billion euros.
BSW writes: A “serious climate and environmental policy, however, requires honesty: Germany’s energy supply cannot be ensured by renewable energies alone within the framework of today’s technologies.” However, the statement contradicts reports from the scientific community, which call a complete renewable energy supply for Germany “possible and sensible.”
The BSW statement on “economic reason” and the questions on climate policy on its website lack references to key climate policy aspects. The internationally binding Paris Agreement on climate protection of 2015 is not mentioned, nor is Germany’s legislative goal of achieving net zero by 2045, or the Federal Climate Change Act.
Gas from Russia
“We do not intend to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. But Germany’s goal of climate neutrality by 2045 cannot be achieved the way the federal government currently does,” MP Klaus Ernst told Table.Media. He currently heads the Bundestag Committee on Climate Protection and Energy for the Left Party and plans to leave the Left Party together with Wagenknecht for the BSW. “It’s about achieving the targets internationally and not about fighting for every ton of CO2 in Germany or meeting the sector targets.” The goal of net zero “must not be achieved at the price of the decline of domestic industry.“
Ernst believes developing and importing hydrogen and synthetic fuels in other countries with better renewable potential makes more sense. He also wants Germany to resume importing Russian gas, because “in a market economy, we should always take the gas from where it is cheapest.”
Greenpeace: Do not use climate policy for cheap populism
Martin Kaiser, the CEO of Greenpeace Germany, commented on this to Table.Media: “Major climate policy impulsesare not to be expected from Sahra Wagenknecht and her upcoming party. Her criticism of including social justice as a central aspect of climate action and holding large corporations more accountable, rather than predominantly treating climate protection as an individual responsibility, is justified.” However, her specific statements are not convincing. Populist attacks for self-promotion against key climate protection measures, such as the Building Energy Act, would be as problematic as “the demand to ease economic sanctions against Russia in order to import cheap fossil gas more easily.”
Kaiser expressed his hope that “Sahra Wagenknecht will not use climate policy for cheap populism, but will work constructively to ensure socially just climate action. Neither Germany nor the climate can afford another party that actively sabotages the energy transition.”
Will Klaus Ernst remain chair of the climate committee?
It is currently unclear whether Klaus Ernst can remain chair of the parliament’s Committee on Climate Action and Energy. It is unclear whether he is still eligible to chair the committee after splitting the Left parliamentary group and being reduced to the status of an association member. In response to a question from Table.Media, the Bundestag administration said such a case has not happened before. It will be examined according to the rules of procedure and decided by the German Council of Elders. Ernst himself says: “I am not clinging to the committee chairmanship. But at the moment, I am elected chairman and if possible, I will remain so.”
Klimapolitik
USA: billion-dollar bet on green hydrogen
US President Joe Biden has set himself an ambitious goal. With billions of dollars in incentives, his government aims to establish a clean US hydrogen industry – from scratch, as they say. Currently, hydrogen still meets less than 4 percent of the US’s energy needs, and 95 percent of this is so-called gray hydrogen, produced using natural gas.
Experts are skeptical: cheap and green?
Experts are skeptical that a cost-effective and, above all, completely emission-free production can be achieved. In addition to green hydrogen (production from renewable energies), the controversial blue (production from natural gas with CCS) and pink (production from nuclear power) are also being promoted for the time being. And not least, the industry still waits for crucial clarifications from the US government.
The first step will be 7 billion US dollars from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. As the US government recently announced, the funds will initially flow into the development of seven regional hydrogen hubs. According to their projections, the incentives are expected to trigger private investment of more than 40 billion US dollars and create tens of thousands of jobs. Together, these hubs are expected to produce more than 3 million tons of clean hydrogen (green, blue, pink) annually, nearly one-third of the 2030 target.
The hubs are to be developed in the following regions:
1: California Hydrogen Hub – California; renewable energy and biomass.
2: Appalachian Hydrogen Hub – West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania; natural gas with CCS.
3: Midwest Hydrogen Hub – Illinois, Indiana, Michigan; various energy sources.
4: Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub – Texas; natural gas with CCS and renewables.
5: Mid-Atlantic Hydrogen Hub – Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey; renewable energy and nuclear energy.
6: Heartland Hydrogen Hub – Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota; various energy sources.
Goals: decarbonization, private capital, efficient production
As recently as June, the US government presented its long-awaited hydrogen strategy. The strategy envisages the production of 10 million tons of clean hydrogen annually by 2030. By 2040, the goal is 20 million tons, and a total of 50 million tons by 2050. The US government has committed itself to three goals in particular:
Hydrogen will be used primarily in hard-to-decarbonize sectors – such as industrial processes or heavy-duty transportation.
Government subsidies are intended to encourage private investment and thereby reduce costs in the long term.
By focusing on regional networks, companies are supposed to produce particularly efficiently.
However, the recent 7 billion US dollars for these hubs are only a fraction of the investment needed for the US Department of Energy’s hydrogen plans, Sean O’Leary, senior researcher at the energy think tank “Ohio River Valley Institute” told Table.Media. He estimates that the sum is just 2 percent of the needed investment. Instead, O’Leary assumes that significantly more funding will come from federal tax credits – especially the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA provides at least 370 billion US dollars for developing green technologies. The “45V” subsidy is particularly generous. The lower carbon emissions during production, the higher the tax credit – manufacturers can earn up to 3 US dollars per kilogram over ten years.
Crucial: tax write-offs
However, O’Leary doubts the US government’s plan will work out despite the high subsidies. “The tax credits depend on the industry also willing to make huge investments,” he says. “And there are indications that this will not be the case. At least not to the extent that the Department of Energy hopes.” That is because some of the promoted technologies are either expensive or risky, despite the subsidies, O’Leary says. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), per kilogram production costs of green hydrogen are up to 5 US dollars higher than those of blue hydrogen. The latter, however, is heavily criticized by climate activists.
“It’s extremely disappointing to see the Biden administration providing funding for hydrogen hubs that rely on fossil fuels,” says Robert Howarth, professor of ecology at the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability. He says this is true even if the CCS process captures and stores most of the emissions. “It’s simply impossible to extract, process, transport and store natural gas without some of it going into the atmosphere as methane.”
Will hydrogen become an export hit?
Too expensive or not clean enough – this could also jeopardize another goal of the US government in the long term: the export of hydrogen. The hydrogen strategy does not contain any concrete specifications in this regard. However, it says: “Additional longer-term opportunities include the potential for exporting clean hydrogen or hydrogen carriers and enabling energy security for our allies.”
Moreover, it is far from clear who will be eligible for the IRA tax credits. Although it has been decided that the billions in funds will be used to promote clean hydrogen, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the highest tax authority, has yet to determine the specific requirements. These could then also include minimum standards for the use of renewable energies. The sector already talks about a make-or-break moment. In other words, the IRS requirements will likely significantly determine the entire industry’s future.
This unresolved question has long since become the playground of powerful lobby groups. In large-scale advertising campaigns, they demand either particularly strict or particularly loose eligibility criteria, depending on their interests. The authorities plan to make a decision by the end of the year. Laurin Meyer, New York
Hydrogen
USA
Indonesia’s energy transition: delayed and diluted
The project was launched almost a year ago as one of the beacons of the international energy transition. But the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) between Indonesia and the donors of the International Partners Group (IPG) is struggling with problems: The program is delayed, lacks transparency and suffers from calculation errors, while important sectors are not covered by the JETP. This could also lead to new investments in coal being labeled as green capital. Experts see the problems as a reminder to better prepare energy transition partnerships in the future.
Indonesia and donor countries under the International Partners Group (IPG), led by the US and Japan, launched the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) during the G20 Bali Summit in November 2022 with a commitment to provide 20 billion US dollars (about 310 trillion Indonesian rupiah), half from public and half from private funds. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) will coordinate the funding.
Conditions and current status of the JETP
Indonesia agreed to:
Peak its carbon emissions in the power sector by 2030. They are then expected to be at 290 million tonnes of CO2. That would be seven years earlier than planned and with a peak well below the previously planned 357 million tons.
Achieve net zero in the power sector by 2050.
Cover 34 percent of the total energy demand from renewables by 2030, instead of only 16 percent as previously planned.
Not to build any new coal-fired power plants.
Now, the project is delayed. The joint statement states that a JETP investment and policy plan would be made public six months after the launch. However, the six-month countdown began when the JETP Secretariat was launched in February 2023, moving the date to August 2023.
The JETP Secretariat’s objective is to oversee and coordinate the investment and policy plan under four working groups: Technical, Policy, Finance, and Just Transition. Members of the working groups include the Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Energy Agency (IEA), World Bank, and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Slow processes, little participation
The public release of the CIPP was delayed again after its plan for release on Aug. 16. 2023, and the draft is only shared with the Government of Indonesia and IPG countries for review. One of the reasons for this is that the JETP Secretariat needs more time to gather data on the planned peak emission stated in the joint statement. Sticking points in the calculations include emissions from coal-fired power plants at industrial sites not connected to the power grid. There are also unresolved questions about the ratio of grants to credits in the 20 billion US dollars total.
Indonesian environmental groups criticize Indonesia’s JETP process for its lack of transparency and public participation. The JETP Secretariat only made one public consultation dialogue in June 2023 and had no platform to share information and progress on CIPP. The secretariat is now targeting to hold its second public consultation dialogue in early November and states that they will publically release the CIPP document on Nov. 20, 2023.
Criticism of coal-fired power plants
The problems in Indonesia are “a setback for the fundamentally sensible concept of JETPs,” says Michael Jakob, economist, consultant and scientific expert on energy transition issues in emerging countries. He says the data situation on emissions, coal capacities and their share in Indonesia’s electricity mix was unclear. “Then there was a lot of public pressure to come to an agreement, which led to unrealistic targets,” Jakob says.
Apparently, up to 20 megawatts of coal capacity for industrial power plants had not been taken into account. Another issue is that Indonesia’s central government and the regions often act differently in terms of economic data and structure. Finally, the donor countries are still unclear about the conditions for financial aid. Jakob sees a lesson to be learned from this example: “JETPs need longer and more careful preparation.” He hopes for a “learning process so that JETPs can continue to be a basis for decarbonization in emerging economies.”
First carbon exchange in Indonesia
Indonesia officially launched its first carbon exchange on Sept. 26, 2023. The Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan/OJK) will supervise the process, and the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) through IDXCarbon will serve as the operator. The government saw this as a concrete contribution to combating climate change and is optimistic that Indonesia will be the global hub for carbon trading while preserving the domestic carbon ecosystem. So far, transactions on IDXCarbon by the service’s 17 users have been slow due to low demand.
On the other hand, a plan by the authorities has triggered strong public backlash: With the recent update of the ASEAN Taxonomy (Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance Version 2), OJK plans to revise Indonesia’s Green Taxonomy 1.0, emulating the classification system stated in the regional taxonomy. In the ASEAN Taxonomy Version 2, coal phase-out activities are classified as an activity that can be labeled green or yellow according to a traffic light system. Among the review criteria is carbon capture and utilization (CCUS). However, critics doubt the economic viability of these technologies.
The Head of the Board of Commissioners of OJK, Mahendra Siregar, stated that there might be possibilities for coal-fired power plants to receive green financing. Financing would be provided to coal-fired power plants in the transition process, captive power plants, and those used for electric vehicles.
Environmental groups accuse OJK of unintentionally supporting greenwashing and jeopardizing investment in Indonesia’s energy transition, as many foreign donors and investors would view Indonesia’s green taxonomy as irrelevant.
Agenda for COP28
Indonesian Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya Bakar said Indonesia expects progress at COP28 on issues such as loss and damage funding, a global target for adaptation, and details of the mitigation work program. Director General of Sustainable Forest Management at the Ministry of Environment and Forestry and Head of the Indonesian Pavilion at COP 28, Agus Justianto, stated that the negotiation process for COP 28 is expected to focus on energy issues. With around 600 government delegates, negotiations on the acceleration of RE and coal plant phase-out will still be the main focus.
However, Indonesia’s JETP leaves out the largest source of greenhouse gases: forest deforestation. In addition to the approximately 620 million metric tons of CO2 from fossil fuels, the country also generates nearly 950 million tons of CO2 emissions from deforestation. Per capita emissions from fossil fuels are about 2.2 metric tons. If deforestation is included, the figure is around 7.2 metric tons.
On deforestation, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry said that in 2022, there is a significant drop in deforestation rates in Indonesia at around 8.4 percent. Greenpeace Indonesia questions this data, stating that the methodology is flawed and does not include forests cleared for industrial purposes. They believe that the deforestation rate in 2022 is much higher.
Wicaksono Gitawan is a journalist and works for the non-profit communications agency GSCC, which works on issues related to the global climate crisis and energy transition.
Coal
Deforestation
Indonesia
JETP
Events
Oct. 23-27, Nairobi ConferenceMOP35 The 35th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol is held in Nairobi. It will deal with substances that deplete the ozone layer (MOP 35). MOP 35 will discuss issues related to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol.Info
Oct. 23-27, Panama ConferenceLatin America and the Caribbean Climate Week The Latin America and the Caribbean Climate Week is one of the regional conferences preparing for COP28 in Dubai. It is intended to prepare the region for the Global Stocktake. Info
Oct. 26, 9:30 a.m. CEST, Online Dialogue eventRoadmaps and concepts to decarbonise the (petro)chemical industry and the building stock Japan and Germany both have set ambitious targets to become carbon-neutral: Japan seeks to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, Germany even until 2045. Against this background, the German-Japanese dialogue on the energy transition plays a particularly significant role. Since its foundation in 2016, the German-Japanese Energy Transition Council (GJETC) has been working on strategic and systemic analyses to develop policy advice for new and long-term perspectives on the way to an ambitious energy transition.Info
Oct. 26, 3 p.m. EDT, Washington/Online ConferenceLatin America Energy Conference – Shaping a New Era of Energy Systems Latin America’s energy landscape is complex. The Inter-American Dialogue think tank brings together different stakeholders to discuss current trends and future developments in the field. Info
Oct. 26, 5 p.m. CEST, Brussels/Online DiscussionJust and Ambitious: Circular Economy – A concrete answer to transformation demands in a changing world In 2021, only 7.2 percent of the global economy was circular. Yet the circular economy has great climate potential. Against this background, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) and the German Development Cooperation (GIZ) invite experts from science, politics and intergovernmental institutions to a discussion on a future circular economy in Brussels. Info
Oct. 26-27, Amsterdam ConferenceRe-Source 2023 The conference gathers suppliers and buyers of renewables from around the world. This year, one of the topics is how to achieve the 2030 decarbonization targets. Info
Oct. 26, 9 a.m. CEST, Brussels DiscussionLOCOMOTION policy event This event is part of the final policy event of the Horizon 2020 project called LOCOMOTION (‘Low-carbon society: an enhanced modeling tool for the transition to sustainability’) taking place in Brussels on the 26th of October. The event is divided into two parts. The first part is targeted towards Civil Society and aims to present the latest findings emerging from the project in five different areas. The second part is targeted towards policymakers and modeling experts and aims to introduce the main features, as well as present a selection of case studies showcasing the capabilities of the model.Info
Oct. 27, 9:30 a.m. – 6 p.m. CEST ConferenceThe European Climate Stocktake – EU and global progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement The European Commission event will discuss where the EU currently stands on the path to meeting the Paris Climate Agreement. Info
Oct. 29, 10 a.m. CEST, Berlin Award ceremonyAward ceremony of the German Environmental Award The German Federal Foundation for the Environment will award the Environmental Award to climate scientist Friederike Otto and architect Dagmar Fritz-Kramer.Info
News
Climate in Numbers: emissions by sector
53,800,000,000 tons of CO2-equivalent – that’s the new negative record for greenhouse gas emissions set in 2022, according to the latest report from the EU’s EDGAR database. This is still 1.4 percent more than the year before, and a trend that runs counter to meeting the 1.5-degree limit: It would require a decrease of around 8 percent.
The report reveals many details: For example, of the six largest CO2 emitters, India, China and the USA have increased their emissions, while Russia, the EU and Brazil have reduced them. Since 1990, total global emissions have increased by 62 percent.
Above all, however, the report provides an overview of how emissions have developed in various sectors since 1990. They have increased above all in power generation and industry. Carbon emissions from transport have also increased by 72 percent. In contrast, climate pollution from buildings has remained virtually unchanged over the last 32 years – new buildings have apparently offset savings and efficiency.
The short-term statistics from last year show a different global picture: Major carbon emitters, electricity production and industry have practically not increased, and buildings and agriculture are also holding back. In contrast, transport and fossil fuel production continue to grow. bpo
EU climate targets 2030 and 2045 at risk
The countries of the European Union are on track to significantly miss their planned climate target. Instead of the planned minus 55 percent in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the measures taken so far only yield a reduction of minus 40 percent. With planned additional measures, the gap to the target is reduced to minus 45 percent. This is one of the findings of the EU Commission’s first progress report on achieving European climate neutrality.
“Although GHG emissions continue to fall, as shown by the most recent data, and there are encouraging signs of action on the ground, progress towards the EU’s climate objectives appears insufficient,” the document says. For the EU goal of reaching net zero by 2050, member states and the EU “need to significantly increase the pace of change.” Action is needed in areas where:
emission reductions still required are significant (buildings, transport)
recent progress made is too slow (agriculture)
where development is going in the wrong direction (land use, forests)
In 2022, EU emissions (excluding land use and aviation) fell by 2.4 percent year-on-year, in line with a 30-year trend – while the economy grew by 3.5 percent. Emissions under the EU ETS fell by only 0.2 percent and 2.9 percent outside the ETS.
Many member countries are also behind schedule in aligning their national energy and climate plans (NECPs) with the requirements of the EU climate targets, a new report from the Climate Action Network shows. The Netherlands, Italy, Denmark, Finland and Cyprus fail to contribute to the EU reduction target. And many countries, including Germany, France and Poland, still did not report their NECPs to Brussels by the end of September. bpo
EU-Klimapolitik
Europe
Study warns of new tipping points
The United Nations University (UNU) warns of six “risk tipping points” in its new study, “Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023,” whose occurrence would have “potentially catastrophic impacts for people and the planet.” Four of the tipping points examined are partly or entirely caused by climate change:
Unbearable heat: Heat waves combined with high humidity will make some global regions uninhabitable as people will no longer be able to dissipate their body heat. Already, 30 percent of the world’s population is affected by such unbearable heat. By 2100, it could be 70 percent, the study says.
Mountain glacier melting: Due to global warming, glaciers are melting faster than new snow falls. This threatens the water supply for hundreds of millions of people. Even the highest glaciers in Asia are predicted to reach their “peak water” moment around 2050. From then on, the availability of freshwater will decline continuously.
Uninsurable future: Extreme weather and damage to infrastructure are increasing massively due to climate change. In some regions, insurance companies already do not offer any or no full insurance coverage anymore. In the event of a disaster, many people are left with high costs, which in turn can have a severe impact on the regional economy and the housing market.
Mass extinction: Climate change and habitat destruction are causing numerous animal and plant species to go extinct or be threatened with extinction. Since many species are closely linked to others through the food chain, for instance, entire ecosystems are at risk of extinction, which would affect the food supply for humans.
In addition, groundwater depletion and increasing space debris are cited as tipping points.
Risks can multiply
The study’s authors define risk tipping points as points in time at which “a socio-ecological system can no longer carry out its function and no longer cushions risks to humans.” The authors translate this with an example: “We open the tap and nothing happens.” If the tipping points occur, this has “catastrophic effects” on society, the economy and the ecosystem, because many systems are interconnected and risks are multiplied by the tipping of one system.
Among other things, the authors suggest:
Challenging the growth model: Focusing on growth in human and environmental well-being instead of economic growth.
A circular economy to reduce energy, water and raw material consumption.
To live more in harmony with nature, for example, by sealing less soil and developing so-called sponge cities. nib
Tipping points
IEA: Fossil fuels will peak by 2030 – then remain too high
The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030. This is according to the IEA’s new World Energy Outlook. “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if,’ it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner, the better for all of us,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
The agency’s forecasts are based on the current policies of governments worldwide. According to these projections, coal consumption will decrease significantly after 2030, while gas and oil consumption will remain near their peaks until at least 2050.
The IEA lists the following as causes for a potential near-future peak in fossil fuel consumption:
the boom in EVs and solar power
slower growth in China and the country’s shift to clean energy
policies promoting clean energy in key markets like the United States (Inflation Reduction Act) and the EU (Green Deal).
China has an “outsized role in shaping global energy trends,” as the People’s Republic has been the world’s largest contributor to growing demand for oil, gas and coal over the past decade. According to IEA forecasts, however, demand for fossil fuels remains far too high, seriously jeopardizing the 1.5-degree target. nib/rtr
Energy turnaround
Fossil energies
IEA
Study: Antarctic ice shelf will melt away
According to a new study, the Amundsen Sea Ice Shelf in Antarctica can no longer be saved. This means that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose its hold. The ice shelf currently still serves as a barrier protecting ice masses behind it. This is the conclusion of a study published on Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
According to models run by the scientists, the ice shelf will melt even if the global community can limit warming to 1.5 degrees. The melted ice shelf could affect inland glaciers – including the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. Their melting would destabilize the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If the ice sheet melts, this alone would cause sea levels to rise by three to five meters over the next few centuries. This is why researchers also refer to the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet as a climate tipping point.
Sea ice in Antarctica is currently declining at an alarming rate. For example, an all-time low in extent for winter months was recorded in September. kul
Ice Melt
Tipping points
WRI: Non-binding alliances hardly reduce emissions at all
Non-binding international climate alliances such as the Global Methane Pledge or the Beyond Oil & Gas Alliancecan help share knowledge. But they rarely lead to the actual introduction of emission reduction measures. This is the conclusion of a think tank World Resources Institute (WRI) report, based on an analysis of more than 90 intergovernmental climate alliances and partnerships.
While the number of such initiatives has increased rapidly since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, few of the initiatives are based on concrete agreements on action or investment. Moreover, almost all countries are part of at least one initiative. But at the same time, these alliances rarely bring together a critical mass of emitters in the various sectors. The report cites the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) as a positive exception, saying that it at least comes close to achieving its self-imposed goals. To make the initiatives more effective, the WRI advises setting concrete targets and involving developing countries more actively. kul
Global Methane Pledge
Paris Agreement
Pariser Klimaabkommen
Wind energy: EU could allow higher prices
The EU Commission is considering relaxing tendering rules for wind farms to protect the European wind industry from Chinese competition. The aim is to give more expensive European manufacturers an advantage over turbine producers that produce less sustainably or even benefit from unfair subsidies. Therefore, EU countries will be encouraged to consider non-financial criteria such as cybersecurity or recyclability when issuing tenders. This is according to the European Wind Energy Action Plan, presented by the Commission on Tuesday.
EU legislators are currently establishing new tendering rules with the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA). The Commission’s wind energy package now offers to make the new tendering criteria binding by adopting an implementing act once the NZIA has been passed.
In November, the Commission also plans to publish a recommendation to extend the emergency regulation for faster planning and approval procedures. The EU member states adopted it at the height of last year’s energy crisis, but it will expire in mid-2024. Acceleration measures for wind energy expansion, adopted with the recently amended Renewable Energies Directive, are to take effect as seamlessly as possible. ber
EU
Net Zero Industry Act
Windkraft
EU response to IRA: speed, transparency, planning security
The EU Commission wants planning certainty for the eco-friendly conversion of industry to be a cost-effective response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). In their upcoming National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP), the EU countries are to set out their renewables expansion targets for the next ten years instead of the current five. This is according to the action plan for wind energy, which the authority presented in Brussels on Tuesday.
The Commission also plans to create a digital overview for all EU green energy tenders, increasing industry transparency. “This would help industry better plan their investments in manufacturing capacity, increase their bankability and bolster their business case,” the paper says. In an assessment of the IRA impact on European industry, also presented Tuesday, the Commission clarifies the strategic importance of this approach: “While many clean technologies, or key inputs for them, are internationally traded, production of goods tends to congregate close to demand.”
However, the Commission says data is still lacking to assess the impact of the IRA. For example, the US government has not yet outlined the standards for eligible clean hydrogen. Still, Brussels recognizes that the US initiative will likely attract certain industries: “The cost advantage in battery manufacturing due to the IRA tax credits is about 25 to 30 percent of total production costs.”
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the European Parliament’s Committee on Industry adopted its position on the European response to the IRA, the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA). Unlike the Commission, MEPs do not want to focus funding on just a few “strategic technologies” – for example, nuclear energy and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are also to be promoted. In the future, production facilities for these technologies are to be approved within six to twelve months and environmental assessments are to be amended for this purpose. ber
EU
Loss and damage: Germany pushes for more donors
In the dispute over the details of the loss and damage fund, Germany is pushing to expand the group of potential donors beyond the traditional developed countries. “It is central that all those who can shoulder it also contribute to the loss and damage fund,” Jennifer Morgan, State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action, told Table.Media. “That means other wealthy nations and large emitters in addition to developed countries. It’s a matter of solidarity and acting together to protect the most vulnerable.”
Morgan emphasized that all sides are engaged in an intensive exchange on possible solutions. After all, the equally in-depth discussions in the transitional committee of the L&D Fund have so far failed to reach an agreement in the last four sessions. The last scheduled meeting of the committee in Egypt ended at the end of last week without a result. According to participants, a new and, for the time being, final round is now scheduled for Nov. 3-5 after the pre-COP in Abu Dhabi. So far, the ideas are still far apart:
Especially about
Which countries and other entities should deposit money
Whether only the poorest and most vulnerable countries have access, or also other countries that are severely affected by climate damage
Whether the World Bank will host the L&D fund. bpo
Loss and Damage
Heads
Morten Thorsby – climate action in the central midfield
Morten Thorsby almost ended his career as a professional footballer when he began to focus on the climate crisis. After all, there are more important things than sports. But Thorsby came up with another idea: What if he combined the two? In 2020, the Norwegian founded the organization “We Play Green,” with which professional soccer players around the world draw attention to the climate.
“We Play Green” trains professional football players who want to use their fame to become climate ambassadors and draw attention to the impacts of the climate crisis. Players receive training on climate action, information material and social media coaching to help them reach their fans with the issue. Currently, 18 players are working with “We Play Green.“ “Our goal is to accelerate green change by mobilizing the global soccer family,” says the 27-year-old central midfielder. He believes there is no better way to mobilize such a large group of people than through the world’s most popular sport. “By supporting the leaders of the football family – the players – we can bring about the life-saving green change that currently lacks not only time but also support.”
Norwegian national player
Thorsby played professionally for Sampdoria Genoa and SC Heerenveen, among others. He currently plays for the Norwegian national team, has been under contract with FC Union Berlin since 2022 and has been loaned out to CFC Genoa.
“Because I grew up in Norway, I’ve always felt very connected to nature,” Thorsby says. But it wasn’t until he moved to the Netherlands to play for FC Heerenveen that he began to pay closer attention to the climate crisis. “In my spare time, I started reading up on global crises,” Thorsby says. “Around 2015, I read the Guardian article series ‘Keep it in the ground‘. That made me aware of many issues and I started to get involved.”
Although Thorsby believes in the opportunities football offers for climate action, he is aware of the environmental damage caused by tournaments like the World Cup in Qatar and millions of traveling fans. Thorsby is particularly critical of the growth pressures he sees in the football industry. “Many clubs, national associations and football committees stress the need for sustainability. Yet at the same time, we are hosting more and more tournaments and matches, leading to more emissions and waste,” he says. With some four billion fans, football offers the biggest stage in the world. “We need to mobilize the football family,” Thorsby says. He wants to ensure that future generations will still have a world worth living in. “We are not moving fast enough in that direction.” Svenja Schlicht
This newsletter swings between glimmers of hope and despair when it comes to global emissions. The bad news first: While global emissions would have to fall by 8 percent to meet the 1.5-degree limit, they increased by 1.4 percent last year. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) promises that better times lie ahead: The global energy transition is “unstoppable,” and carbon emissions will peak as early as 2025, according to the latest World Energy Outlook.
This week, we also look to the US, which invests billions in developing a hydrogen economy, and to Indonesia. There, the energy transition is only making slow progress and green money could even flow into coal-fired power plants. We also have an eye on Brussels politics and explain why wind power could become more expensive in the EU and the EU’s response to the Inflation Reduction Act.
In addition, find out why a professional midfield football player understands more about the climate than some politicians.
With us, you’ll keep an eye on everything – and maybe even a little hope.
Your Lisa Kuner
Feature
Wagenknecht wants to break with Germany’s previous climate policy
On Monday, Sahra Wagenknecht resigned from the German Left Party and announced the formation of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (“Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance”).
The “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW) calls for a fundamentally different climate policy in Germany and Europe. The Alliance thus breaks with the most important previous elements of Germany’s policy area. Unlike the consensus of all parliamentary groups in the German Bundestag (with the exception of the AfD), the BSW rejects the emissions trading instrument, opposes an energy supply based entirely on renewables and advocates importing Russian gas. The energy and climate policy ideas of the newly founded association and precursor to a future political party, “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Für Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit” (“Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – For Reason and Justice”) are, however, still general. Some of them do not stand up to scrutiny.
Wagenknecht and her peers do not focus on the climate at the beginning of their political journey. They do not set any goals of their own and have not yet presented any alternative ideas on how the national, European and international climate goals could be achieved. Instead, they focus on general criticism of current policies in Berlin and Brussels. “Blind activism and ill-considered measures do not help the climate, but they jeopardize our economic substance,” writes the BSW.
Against price signals and emissions trading
Specifically, the Alliance supports “proposals that provide more climate action while not endangering the prosperity of our country. We reject climate action that makes people poor and endangers Germany as a business location,” it says on its homepage.
This includes, according to the Alliance, the price signals of the planned German and European emissions trading. “Rising prices do not even have a climate policy effect,” they claim, for example, if there is a lack of public alternatives to car travel, which is why rail services, in particular, should be expanded. However, this statement is contradicted by research results showing that “monetary incentives play the most important role as a single measure in saving energy.”
“Increasingly expensive emission allowances that only drive important industries out of Europe do just as little to help the climate,” writes the Alliance. Figures from the EU Commission also contradict this view. For instance, emissions in the EU decreased by 24 percent from 1990 to 2019, while the economy grew by 60 percent. The highest reductions occurred in sectors that are subject to emissions trading.
Hope for technology, net zero 2045 not mentioned
The “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” also rejects the EU regulation on the phase-out of combustion technology in cars from 2035. What is needed are “more fuel-efficient internal combustion engines and intensive research into eco-friendly fuels.”
Germany’s “decisive contribution” to international climate policy is the “development of future technologies.” This requires better framework conditions. More goods transported via rail, less bureaucracy. These technologies also include the development of a hydrogen economy. The German government funds 62 projects in this field with a total of eight billion euros.
BSW writes: A “serious climate and environmental policy, however, requires honesty: Germany’s energy supply cannot be ensured by renewable energies alone within the framework of today’s technologies.” However, the statement contradicts reports from the scientific community, which call a complete renewable energy supply for Germany “possible and sensible.”
The BSW statement on “economic reason” and the questions on climate policy on its website lack references to key climate policy aspects. The internationally binding Paris Agreement on climate protection of 2015 is not mentioned, nor is Germany’s legislative goal of achieving net zero by 2045, or the Federal Climate Change Act.
Gas from Russia
“We do not intend to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. But Germany’s goal of climate neutrality by 2045 cannot be achieved the way the federal government currently does,” MP Klaus Ernst told Table.Media. He currently heads the Bundestag Committee on Climate Protection and Energy for the Left Party and plans to leave the Left Party together with Wagenknecht for the BSW. “It’s about achieving the targets internationally and not about fighting for every ton of CO2 in Germany or meeting the sector targets.” The goal of net zero “must not be achieved at the price of the decline of domestic industry.“
Ernst believes developing and importing hydrogen and synthetic fuels in other countries with better renewable potential makes more sense. He also wants Germany to resume importing Russian gas, because “in a market economy, we should always take the gas from where it is cheapest.”
Greenpeace: Do not use climate policy for cheap populism
Martin Kaiser, the CEO of Greenpeace Germany, commented on this to Table.Media: “Major climate policy impulsesare not to be expected from Sahra Wagenknecht and her upcoming party. Her criticism of including social justice as a central aspect of climate action and holding large corporations more accountable, rather than predominantly treating climate protection as an individual responsibility, is justified.” However, her specific statements are not convincing. Populist attacks for self-promotion against key climate protection measures, such as the Building Energy Act, would be as problematic as “the demand to ease economic sanctions against Russia in order to import cheap fossil gas more easily.”
Kaiser expressed his hope that “Sahra Wagenknecht will not use climate policy for cheap populism, but will work constructively to ensure socially just climate action. Neither Germany nor the climate can afford another party that actively sabotages the energy transition.”
Will Klaus Ernst remain chair of the climate committee?
It is currently unclear whether Klaus Ernst can remain chair of the parliament’s Committee on Climate Action and Energy. It is unclear whether he is still eligible to chair the committee after splitting the Left parliamentary group and being reduced to the status of an association member. In response to a question from Table.Media, the Bundestag administration said such a case has not happened before. It will be examined according to the rules of procedure and decided by the German Council of Elders. Ernst himself says: “I am not clinging to the committee chairmanship. But at the moment, I am elected chairman and if possible, I will remain so.”
Klimapolitik
USA: billion-dollar bet on green hydrogen
US President Joe Biden has set himself an ambitious goal. With billions of dollars in incentives, his government aims to establish a clean US hydrogen industry – from scratch, as they say. Currently, hydrogen still meets less than 4 percent of the US’s energy needs, and 95 percent of this is so-called gray hydrogen, produced using natural gas.
Experts are skeptical: cheap and green?
Experts are skeptical that a cost-effective and, above all, completely emission-free production can be achieved. In addition to green hydrogen (production from renewable energies), the controversial blue (production from natural gas with CCS) and pink (production from nuclear power) are also being promoted for the time being. And not least, the industry still waits for crucial clarifications from the US government.
The first step will be 7 billion US dollars from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. As the US government recently announced, the funds will initially flow into the development of seven regional hydrogen hubs. According to their projections, the incentives are expected to trigger private investment of more than 40 billion US dollars and create tens of thousands of jobs. Together, these hubs are expected to produce more than 3 million tons of clean hydrogen (green, blue, pink) annually, nearly one-third of the 2030 target.
The hubs are to be developed in the following regions:
1: California Hydrogen Hub – California; renewable energy and biomass.
2: Appalachian Hydrogen Hub – West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania; natural gas with CCS.
3: Midwest Hydrogen Hub – Illinois, Indiana, Michigan; various energy sources.
4: Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub – Texas; natural gas with CCS and renewables.
5: Mid-Atlantic Hydrogen Hub – Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey; renewable energy and nuclear energy.
6: Heartland Hydrogen Hub – Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota; various energy sources.
Goals: decarbonization, private capital, efficient production
As recently as June, the US government presented its long-awaited hydrogen strategy. The strategy envisages the production of 10 million tons of clean hydrogen annually by 2030. By 2040, the goal is 20 million tons, and a total of 50 million tons by 2050. The US government has committed itself to three goals in particular:
Hydrogen will be used primarily in hard-to-decarbonize sectors – such as industrial processes or heavy-duty transportation.
Government subsidies are intended to encourage private investment and thereby reduce costs in the long term.
By focusing on regional networks, companies are supposed to produce particularly efficiently.
However, the recent 7 billion US dollars for these hubs are only a fraction of the investment needed for the US Department of Energy’s hydrogen plans, Sean O’Leary, senior researcher at the energy think tank “Ohio River Valley Institute” told Table.Media. He estimates that the sum is just 2 percent of the needed investment. Instead, O’Leary assumes that significantly more funding will come from federal tax credits – especially the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA provides at least 370 billion US dollars for developing green technologies. The “45V” subsidy is particularly generous. The lower carbon emissions during production, the higher the tax credit – manufacturers can earn up to 3 US dollars per kilogram over ten years.
Crucial: tax write-offs
However, O’Leary doubts the US government’s plan will work out despite the high subsidies. “The tax credits depend on the industry also willing to make huge investments,” he says. “And there are indications that this will not be the case. At least not to the extent that the Department of Energy hopes.” That is because some of the promoted technologies are either expensive or risky, despite the subsidies, O’Leary says. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), per kilogram production costs of green hydrogen are up to 5 US dollars higher than those of blue hydrogen. The latter, however, is heavily criticized by climate activists.
“It’s extremely disappointing to see the Biden administration providing funding for hydrogen hubs that rely on fossil fuels,” says Robert Howarth, professor of ecology at the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability. He says this is true even if the CCS process captures and stores most of the emissions. “It’s simply impossible to extract, process, transport and store natural gas without some of it going into the atmosphere as methane.”
Will hydrogen become an export hit?
Too expensive or not clean enough – this could also jeopardize another goal of the US government in the long term: the export of hydrogen. The hydrogen strategy does not contain any concrete specifications in this regard. However, it says: “Additional longer-term opportunities include the potential for exporting clean hydrogen or hydrogen carriers and enabling energy security for our allies.”
Moreover, it is far from clear who will be eligible for the IRA tax credits. Although it has been decided that the billions in funds will be used to promote clean hydrogen, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), the highest tax authority, has yet to determine the specific requirements. These could then also include minimum standards for the use of renewable energies. The sector already talks about a make-or-break moment. In other words, the IRS requirements will likely significantly determine the entire industry’s future.
This unresolved question has long since become the playground of powerful lobby groups. In large-scale advertising campaigns, they demand either particularly strict or particularly loose eligibility criteria, depending on their interests. The authorities plan to make a decision by the end of the year. Laurin Meyer, New York
Hydrogen
USA
Indonesia’s energy transition: delayed and diluted
The project was launched almost a year ago as one of the beacons of the international energy transition. But the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) between Indonesia and the donors of the International Partners Group (IPG) is struggling with problems: The program is delayed, lacks transparency and suffers from calculation errors, while important sectors are not covered by the JETP. This could also lead to new investments in coal being labeled as green capital. Experts see the problems as a reminder to better prepare energy transition partnerships in the future.
Indonesia and donor countries under the International Partners Group (IPG), led by the US and Japan, launched the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) during the G20 Bali Summit in November 2022 with a commitment to provide 20 billion US dollars (about 310 trillion Indonesian rupiah), half from public and half from private funds. The Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) will coordinate the funding.
Conditions and current status of the JETP
Indonesia agreed to:
Peak its carbon emissions in the power sector by 2030. They are then expected to be at 290 million tonnes of CO2. That would be seven years earlier than planned and with a peak well below the previously planned 357 million tons.
Achieve net zero in the power sector by 2050.
Cover 34 percent of the total energy demand from renewables by 2030, instead of only 16 percent as previously planned.
Not to build any new coal-fired power plants.
Now, the project is delayed. The joint statement states that a JETP investment and policy plan would be made public six months after the launch. However, the six-month countdown began when the JETP Secretariat was launched in February 2023, moving the date to August 2023.
The JETP Secretariat’s objective is to oversee and coordinate the investment and policy plan under four working groups: Technical, Policy, Finance, and Just Transition. Members of the working groups include the Asian Development Bank (ADB), International Energy Agency (IEA), World Bank, and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Slow processes, little participation
The public release of the CIPP was delayed again after its plan for release on Aug. 16. 2023, and the draft is only shared with the Government of Indonesia and IPG countries for review. One of the reasons for this is that the JETP Secretariat needs more time to gather data on the planned peak emission stated in the joint statement. Sticking points in the calculations include emissions from coal-fired power plants at industrial sites not connected to the power grid. There are also unresolved questions about the ratio of grants to credits in the 20 billion US dollars total.
Indonesian environmental groups criticize Indonesia’s JETP process for its lack of transparency and public participation. The JETP Secretariat only made one public consultation dialogue in June 2023 and had no platform to share information and progress on CIPP. The secretariat is now targeting to hold its second public consultation dialogue in early November and states that they will publically release the CIPP document on Nov. 20, 2023.
Criticism of coal-fired power plants
The problems in Indonesia are “a setback for the fundamentally sensible concept of JETPs,” says Michael Jakob, economist, consultant and scientific expert on energy transition issues in emerging countries. He says the data situation on emissions, coal capacities and their share in Indonesia’s electricity mix was unclear. “Then there was a lot of public pressure to come to an agreement, which led to unrealistic targets,” Jakob says.
Apparently, up to 20 megawatts of coal capacity for industrial power plants had not been taken into account. Another issue is that Indonesia’s central government and the regions often act differently in terms of economic data and structure. Finally, the donor countries are still unclear about the conditions for financial aid. Jakob sees a lesson to be learned from this example: “JETPs need longer and more careful preparation.” He hopes for a “learning process so that JETPs can continue to be a basis for decarbonization in emerging economies.”
First carbon exchange in Indonesia
Indonesia officially launched its first carbon exchange on Sept. 26, 2023. The Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan/OJK) will supervise the process, and the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) through IDXCarbon will serve as the operator. The government saw this as a concrete contribution to combating climate change and is optimistic that Indonesia will be the global hub for carbon trading while preserving the domestic carbon ecosystem. So far, transactions on IDXCarbon by the service’s 17 users have been slow due to low demand.
On the other hand, a plan by the authorities has triggered strong public backlash: With the recent update of the ASEAN Taxonomy (Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance Version 2), OJK plans to revise Indonesia’s Green Taxonomy 1.0, emulating the classification system stated in the regional taxonomy. In the ASEAN Taxonomy Version 2, coal phase-out activities are classified as an activity that can be labeled green or yellow according to a traffic light system. Among the review criteria is carbon capture and utilization (CCUS). However, critics doubt the economic viability of these technologies.
The Head of the Board of Commissioners of OJK, Mahendra Siregar, stated that there might be possibilities for coal-fired power plants to receive green financing. Financing would be provided to coal-fired power plants in the transition process, captive power plants, and those used for electric vehicles.
Environmental groups accuse OJK of unintentionally supporting greenwashing and jeopardizing investment in Indonesia’s energy transition, as many foreign donors and investors would view Indonesia’s green taxonomy as irrelevant.
Agenda for COP28
Indonesian Minister of Environment and Forestry Siti Nurbaya Bakar said Indonesia expects progress at COP28 on issues such as loss and damage funding, a global target for adaptation, and details of the mitigation work program. Director General of Sustainable Forest Management at the Ministry of Environment and Forestry and Head of the Indonesian Pavilion at COP 28, Agus Justianto, stated that the negotiation process for COP 28 is expected to focus on energy issues. With around 600 government delegates, negotiations on the acceleration of RE and coal plant phase-out will still be the main focus.
However, Indonesia’s JETP leaves out the largest source of greenhouse gases: forest deforestation. In addition to the approximately 620 million metric tons of CO2 from fossil fuels, the country also generates nearly 950 million tons of CO2 emissions from deforestation. Per capita emissions from fossil fuels are about 2.2 metric tons. If deforestation is included, the figure is around 7.2 metric tons.
On deforestation, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry said that in 2022, there is a significant drop in deforestation rates in Indonesia at around 8.4 percent. Greenpeace Indonesia questions this data, stating that the methodology is flawed and does not include forests cleared for industrial purposes. They believe that the deforestation rate in 2022 is much higher.
Wicaksono Gitawan is a journalist and works for the non-profit communications agency GSCC, which works on issues related to the global climate crisis and energy transition.
Coal
Deforestation
Indonesia
JETP
Events
Oct. 23-27, Nairobi ConferenceMOP35 The 35th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol is held in Nairobi. It will deal with substances that deplete the ozone layer (MOP 35). MOP 35 will discuss issues related to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol.Info
Oct. 23-27, Panama ConferenceLatin America and the Caribbean Climate Week The Latin America and the Caribbean Climate Week is one of the regional conferences preparing for COP28 in Dubai. It is intended to prepare the region for the Global Stocktake. Info
Oct. 26, 9:30 a.m. CEST, Online Dialogue eventRoadmaps and concepts to decarbonise the (petro)chemical industry and the building stock Japan and Germany both have set ambitious targets to become carbon-neutral: Japan seeks to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, Germany even until 2045. Against this background, the German-Japanese dialogue on the energy transition plays a particularly significant role. Since its foundation in 2016, the German-Japanese Energy Transition Council (GJETC) has been working on strategic and systemic analyses to develop policy advice for new and long-term perspectives on the way to an ambitious energy transition.Info
Oct. 26, 3 p.m. EDT, Washington/Online ConferenceLatin America Energy Conference – Shaping a New Era of Energy Systems Latin America’s energy landscape is complex. The Inter-American Dialogue think tank brings together different stakeholders to discuss current trends and future developments in the field. Info
Oct. 26, 5 p.m. CEST, Brussels/Online DiscussionJust and Ambitious: Circular Economy – A concrete answer to transformation demands in a changing world In 2021, only 7.2 percent of the global economy was circular. Yet the circular economy has great climate potential. Against this background, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) and the German Development Cooperation (GIZ) invite experts from science, politics and intergovernmental institutions to a discussion on a future circular economy in Brussels. Info
Oct. 26-27, Amsterdam ConferenceRe-Source 2023 The conference gathers suppliers and buyers of renewables from around the world. This year, one of the topics is how to achieve the 2030 decarbonization targets. Info
Oct. 26, 9 a.m. CEST, Brussels DiscussionLOCOMOTION policy event This event is part of the final policy event of the Horizon 2020 project called LOCOMOTION (‘Low-carbon society: an enhanced modeling tool for the transition to sustainability’) taking place in Brussels on the 26th of October. The event is divided into two parts. The first part is targeted towards Civil Society and aims to present the latest findings emerging from the project in five different areas. The second part is targeted towards policymakers and modeling experts and aims to introduce the main features, as well as present a selection of case studies showcasing the capabilities of the model.Info
Oct. 27, 9:30 a.m. – 6 p.m. CEST ConferenceThe European Climate Stocktake – EU and global progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement The European Commission event will discuss where the EU currently stands on the path to meeting the Paris Climate Agreement. Info
Oct. 29, 10 a.m. CEST, Berlin Award ceremonyAward ceremony of the German Environmental Award The German Federal Foundation for the Environment will award the Environmental Award to climate scientist Friederike Otto and architect Dagmar Fritz-Kramer.Info
News
Climate in Numbers: emissions by sector
53,800,000,000 tons of CO2-equivalent – that’s the new negative record for greenhouse gas emissions set in 2022, according to the latest report from the EU’s EDGAR database. This is still 1.4 percent more than the year before, and a trend that runs counter to meeting the 1.5-degree limit: It would require a decrease of around 8 percent.
The report reveals many details: For example, of the six largest CO2 emitters, India, China and the USA have increased their emissions, while Russia, the EU and Brazil have reduced them. Since 1990, total global emissions have increased by 62 percent.
Above all, however, the report provides an overview of how emissions have developed in various sectors since 1990. They have increased above all in power generation and industry. Carbon emissions from transport have also increased by 72 percent. In contrast, climate pollution from buildings has remained virtually unchanged over the last 32 years – new buildings have apparently offset savings and efficiency.
The short-term statistics from last year show a different global picture: Major carbon emitters, electricity production and industry have practically not increased, and buildings and agriculture are also holding back. In contrast, transport and fossil fuel production continue to grow. bpo
EU climate targets 2030 and 2045 at risk
The countries of the European Union are on track to significantly miss their planned climate target. Instead of the planned minus 55 percent in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the measures taken so far only yield a reduction of minus 40 percent. With planned additional measures, the gap to the target is reduced to minus 45 percent. This is one of the findings of the EU Commission’s first progress report on achieving European climate neutrality.
“Although GHG emissions continue to fall, as shown by the most recent data, and there are encouraging signs of action on the ground, progress towards the EU’s climate objectives appears insufficient,” the document says. For the EU goal of reaching net zero by 2050, member states and the EU “need to significantly increase the pace of change.” Action is needed in areas where:
emission reductions still required are significant (buildings, transport)
recent progress made is too slow (agriculture)
where development is going in the wrong direction (land use, forests)
In 2022, EU emissions (excluding land use and aviation) fell by 2.4 percent year-on-year, in line with a 30-year trend – while the economy grew by 3.5 percent. Emissions under the EU ETS fell by only 0.2 percent and 2.9 percent outside the ETS.
Many member countries are also behind schedule in aligning their national energy and climate plans (NECPs) with the requirements of the EU climate targets, a new report from the Climate Action Network shows. The Netherlands, Italy, Denmark, Finland and Cyprus fail to contribute to the EU reduction target. And many countries, including Germany, France and Poland, still did not report their NECPs to Brussels by the end of September. bpo
EU-Klimapolitik
Europe
Study warns of new tipping points
The United Nations University (UNU) warns of six “risk tipping points” in its new study, “Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023,” whose occurrence would have “potentially catastrophic impacts for people and the planet.” Four of the tipping points examined are partly or entirely caused by climate change:
Unbearable heat: Heat waves combined with high humidity will make some global regions uninhabitable as people will no longer be able to dissipate their body heat. Already, 30 percent of the world’s population is affected by such unbearable heat. By 2100, it could be 70 percent, the study says.
Mountain glacier melting: Due to global warming, glaciers are melting faster than new snow falls. This threatens the water supply for hundreds of millions of people. Even the highest glaciers in Asia are predicted to reach their “peak water” moment around 2050. From then on, the availability of freshwater will decline continuously.
Uninsurable future: Extreme weather and damage to infrastructure are increasing massively due to climate change. In some regions, insurance companies already do not offer any or no full insurance coverage anymore. In the event of a disaster, many people are left with high costs, which in turn can have a severe impact on the regional economy and the housing market.
Mass extinction: Climate change and habitat destruction are causing numerous animal and plant species to go extinct or be threatened with extinction. Since many species are closely linked to others through the food chain, for instance, entire ecosystems are at risk of extinction, which would affect the food supply for humans.
In addition, groundwater depletion and increasing space debris are cited as tipping points.
Risks can multiply
The study’s authors define risk tipping points as points in time at which “a socio-ecological system can no longer carry out its function and no longer cushions risks to humans.” The authors translate this with an example: “We open the tap and nothing happens.” If the tipping points occur, this has “catastrophic effects” on society, the economy and the ecosystem, because many systems are interconnected and risks are multiplied by the tipping of one system.
Among other things, the authors suggest:
Challenging the growth model: Focusing on growth in human and environmental well-being instead of economic growth.
A circular economy to reduce energy, water and raw material consumption.
To live more in harmony with nature, for example, by sealing less soil and developing so-called sponge cities. nib
Tipping points
IEA: Fossil fuels will peak by 2030 – then remain too high
The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that global demand for fossil fuels will peak by 2030. This is according to the IEA’s new World Energy Outlook. “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if,’ it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner, the better for all of us,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
The agency’s forecasts are based on the current policies of governments worldwide. According to these projections, coal consumption will decrease significantly after 2030, while gas and oil consumption will remain near their peaks until at least 2050.
The IEA lists the following as causes for a potential near-future peak in fossil fuel consumption:
the boom in EVs and solar power
slower growth in China and the country’s shift to clean energy
policies promoting clean energy in key markets like the United States (Inflation Reduction Act) and the EU (Green Deal).
China has an “outsized role in shaping global energy trends,” as the People’s Republic has been the world’s largest contributor to growing demand for oil, gas and coal over the past decade. According to IEA forecasts, however, demand for fossil fuels remains far too high, seriously jeopardizing the 1.5-degree target. nib/rtr
Energy turnaround
Fossil energies
IEA
Study: Antarctic ice shelf will melt away
According to a new study, the Amundsen Sea Ice Shelf in Antarctica can no longer be saved. This means that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose its hold. The ice shelf currently still serves as a barrier protecting ice masses behind it. This is the conclusion of a study published on Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change.
According to models run by the scientists, the ice shelf will melt even if the global community can limit warming to 1.5 degrees. The melted ice shelf could affect inland glaciers – including the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers. Their melting would destabilize the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If the ice sheet melts, this alone would cause sea levels to rise by three to five meters over the next few centuries. This is why researchers also refer to the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet as a climate tipping point.
Sea ice in Antarctica is currently declining at an alarming rate. For example, an all-time low in extent for winter months was recorded in September. kul
Ice Melt
Tipping points
WRI: Non-binding alliances hardly reduce emissions at all
Non-binding international climate alliances such as the Global Methane Pledge or the Beyond Oil & Gas Alliancecan help share knowledge. But they rarely lead to the actual introduction of emission reduction measures. This is the conclusion of a think tank World Resources Institute (WRI) report, based on an analysis of more than 90 intergovernmental climate alliances and partnerships.
While the number of such initiatives has increased rapidly since the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, few of the initiatives are based on concrete agreements on action or investment. Moreover, almost all countries are part of at least one initiative. But at the same time, these alliances rarely bring together a critical mass of emitters in the various sectors. The report cites the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) as a positive exception, saying that it at least comes close to achieving its self-imposed goals. To make the initiatives more effective, the WRI advises setting concrete targets and involving developing countries more actively. kul
Global Methane Pledge
Paris Agreement
Pariser Klimaabkommen
Wind energy: EU could allow higher prices
The EU Commission is considering relaxing tendering rules for wind farms to protect the European wind industry from Chinese competition. The aim is to give more expensive European manufacturers an advantage over turbine producers that produce less sustainably or even benefit from unfair subsidies. Therefore, EU countries will be encouraged to consider non-financial criteria such as cybersecurity or recyclability when issuing tenders. This is according to the European Wind Energy Action Plan, presented by the Commission on Tuesday.
EU legislators are currently establishing new tendering rules with the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA). The Commission’s wind energy package now offers to make the new tendering criteria binding by adopting an implementing act once the NZIA has been passed.
In November, the Commission also plans to publish a recommendation to extend the emergency regulation for faster planning and approval procedures. The EU member states adopted it at the height of last year’s energy crisis, but it will expire in mid-2024. Acceleration measures for wind energy expansion, adopted with the recently amended Renewable Energies Directive, are to take effect as seamlessly as possible. ber
EU
Net Zero Industry Act
Windkraft
EU response to IRA: speed, transparency, planning security
The EU Commission wants planning certainty for the eco-friendly conversion of industry to be a cost-effective response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). In their upcoming National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP), the EU countries are to set out their renewables expansion targets for the next ten years instead of the current five. This is according to the action plan for wind energy, which the authority presented in Brussels on Tuesday.
The Commission also plans to create a digital overview for all EU green energy tenders, increasing industry transparency. “This would help industry better plan their investments in manufacturing capacity, increase their bankability and bolster their business case,” the paper says. In an assessment of the IRA impact on European industry, also presented Tuesday, the Commission clarifies the strategic importance of this approach: “While many clean technologies, or key inputs for them, are internationally traded, production of goods tends to congregate close to demand.”
However, the Commission says data is still lacking to assess the impact of the IRA. For example, the US government has not yet outlined the standards for eligible clean hydrogen. Still, Brussels recognizes that the US initiative will likely attract certain industries: “The cost advantage in battery manufacturing due to the IRA tax credits is about 25 to 30 percent of total production costs.”
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the European Parliament’s Committee on Industry adopted its position on the European response to the IRA, the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA). Unlike the Commission, MEPs do not want to focus funding on just a few “strategic technologies” – for example, nuclear energy and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are also to be promoted. In the future, production facilities for these technologies are to be approved within six to twelve months and environmental assessments are to be amended for this purpose. ber
EU
Loss and damage: Germany pushes for more donors
In the dispute over the details of the loss and damage fund, Germany is pushing to expand the group of potential donors beyond the traditional developed countries. “It is central that all those who can shoulder it also contribute to the loss and damage fund,” Jennifer Morgan, State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action, told Table.Media. “That means other wealthy nations and large emitters in addition to developed countries. It’s a matter of solidarity and acting together to protect the most vulnerable.”
Morgan emphasized that all sides are engaged in an intensive exchange on possible solutions. After all, the equally in-depth discussions in the transitional committee of the L&D Fund have so far failed to reach an agreement in the last four sessions. The last scheduled meeting of the committee in Egypt ended at the end of last week without a result. According to participants, a new and, for the time being, final round is now scheduled for Nov. 3-5 after the pre-COP in Abu Dhabi. So far, the ideas are still far apart:
Especially about
Which countries and other entities should deposit money
Whether only the poorest and most vulnerable countries have access, or also other countries that are severely affected by climate damage
Whether the World Bank will host the L&D fund. bpo
Loss and Damage
Heads
Morten Thorsby – climate action in the central midfield
Morten Thorsby almost ended his career as a professional footballer when he began to focus on the climate crisis. After all, there are more important things than sports. But Thorsby came up with another idea: What if he combined the two? In 2020, the Norwegian founded the organization “We Play Green,” with which professional soccer players around the world draw attention to the climate.
“We Play Green” trains professional football players who want to use their fame to become climate ambassadors and draw attention to the impacts of the climate crisis. Players receive training on climate action, information material and social media coaching to help them reach their fans with the issue. Currently, 18 players are working with “We Play Green.“ “Our goal is to accelerate green change by mobilizing the global soccer family,” says the 27-year-old central midfielder. He believes there is no better way to mobilize such a large group of people than through the world’s most popular sport. “By supporting the leaders of the football family – the players – we can bring about the life-saving green change that currently lacks not only time but also support.”
Norwegian national player
Thorsby played professionally for Sampdoria Genoa and SC Heerenveen, among others. He currently plays for the Norwegian national team, has been under contract with FC Union Berlin since 2022 and has been loaned out to CFC Genoa.
“Because I grew up in Norway, I’ve always felt very connected to nature,” Thorsby says. But it wasn’t until he moved to the Netherlands to play for FC Heerenveen that he began to pay closer attention to the climate crisis. “In my spare time, I started reading up on global crises,” Thorsby says. “Around 2015, I read the Guardian article series ‘Keep it in the ground‘. That made me aware of many issues and I started to get involved.”
Although Thorsby believes in the opportunities football offers for climate action, he is aware of the environmental damage caused by tournaments like the World Cup in Qatar and millions of traveling fans. Thorsby is particularly critical of the growth pressures he sees in the football industry. “Many clubs, national associations and football committees stress the need for sustainability. Yet at the same time, we are hosting more and more tournaments and matches, leading to more emissions and waste,” he says. With some four billion fans, football offers the biggest stage in the world. “We need to mobilize the football family,” Thorsby says. He wants to ensure that future generations will still have a world worth living in. “We are not moving fast enough in that direction.” Svenja Schlicht
