“We need to stop pointing fingers” – these were conciliatory words from the gray eminence of climate conferences, Alden Meyer. “We are all in the same boat,” warned the Senior Associate of the environmental lobby E3G at the end of an often disappointing SB58 in Bonn.
There was a lot of blame-shifting at SB58. Countries argued about the agenda of the conference well into the second week. Many poorer countries accused the rich countries of not contributing enough to climate financing. They only wanted to discuss an emissions reduction program if finance was also on the agenda. Alexandra Endres has summarized the details of these and other disputes.
Also disappointing was the appearance of COP28 Chair Sultan Ahmed al Jaber. He did acknowledge in Bonn that the fossil fuel exit was “inevitable.” But whether there is at least some hope for an “Only al Jaber could phase out fossil fuels” moment remains to be seen: Against tradition, the COP28 chair did not comment on the UAE’s vision and goals for the next climate conference. Bernhard Pötter has nevertheless listed possible “landing points” for COP28.
After two long SB weeks, we are now taking a breather! After all, there are many more important climate events on the agenda, as our overview shows.
The Bonn Climate Change Conference SB58 ended late Thursday with minimal progress toward COP28. Sidetracked by a lengthy dispute over the conference agenda, delegates concluded by sorting out what needed to be done and shelving disputed items.
Thus, the third technical dialogue of the global stocktake (GST) was concluded and issues related to adaptation, loss and damage, and finance were pre-clarified. The dispute over whether emissions reduction (mitigation) and finance belonged on the meeting’s agenda was deferred. The planned decision on the venue for COP29 in 2024 was also postponed – the Eastern European group could not decide between the candidates Bulgaria, Armenia and Azerbaijan amid geopolitical tensions between Russia and the EU.
Irrespective of the technical questions, possible compromises on political issues are emerging for COP28. These include the phase-out of fossil fuels, a global target for renewables, and clarification of the loss and damage committee structures.
Negotiations often made only slow progress. Until the penultimate day, the 5,647 delegates could not even agree on an agenda. Some delegates complained about the rude tone of the negotiations. Even in his opening speech, UN climate chief Simon Stiell addressed the feeling that the common goal was somewhat lost sight of amid national self-interest. He urged delegates to “spend time building stronger relationships across groups and regions.”
The key outcomes of the conference:
The third GST technical dialogue ended in Bonn, where delegates and observers took stock of progress on key issues of emissions reduction, adaptation and finance. Due to a deadlock on the last day, it was impossible to agree on a structure for the GST report in Bonn. This will now be done in Dubai.
Civil society has been heard, said Marine Pouget, GST expert for the climate change network CAN International. She called the technical phase of the GST “quite a success.” But the now starting political phase will negotiate the text that will serve as the foundation for the new versions of the National Climate Targets (NDCs) in 2025 – and there are “a lot of tensions, especially around equity, historical responsibility and financing.”
The dispute now revolves around the questions of how binding the conclusions from the GST can be and how financing is to be coordinated: How, for example, is the rebalancing of global financial flows enshrined in the Paris Agreement (Article 2.1.c) and climate finance from North to South (Article 9) related? This should be clarified at COP28 at the latest.
Negotiations in Bonn kicked off with a dispute over the agenda, which was not resolved until the penultimate day of the conference. The reason: The EU tried to ensure that the “Mitigation Work Programme,” which envisages more effort in CO2 reduction for the 1.5-degree path, would not only be debated at the COPs – as was previously the case – but also at the technical conferences in Bonn. The EU wants to discuss global emissions reductions more than once a year. However, this requires a mandate.
The “Like-Minded Developing Countries,” which also include China, India and Saudi Arabia, strictly rejected this. Officially for formal reasons. But behind this was the old dispute about whether the developed countries should be able to demand more ambition from the developing countries when it comes to CO2 reductions, as long as they do not guarantee any new funding for the Global South.
Ultimately, it was agreed not to include either item on the agenda. However, as negotiations on both topics had continued in the background, the chairs of this conference strand (SBI and SBSTA) included an informal note on the progress of the talks in the final declaration. In this way, they do not want to be forced to start all over again at COP28 in Dubai.
The just transition to a climate-friendly world was also contested in Bonn. The central dispute: Should the negotiations only address the effects of the transformation on employees in the coal or oil industries, for example – or also broader social issues raised by the transformation of the national economy?
“Here, too, the financial issue was very present,” says David Ryfisch, Head of Division of International Climate Policy at the development organization Germanwatch – especially since the social aspect, of all things, was underfunded in the already existing Just Energy Transition partnership with South Africa. “The donor countries have largely ignored that.”
There were no concrete decisions here. In the end, an informal paper was agreed upon, which will serve as the basis for further discussions at COP28.
The Paris Agreement stipulates that a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) will improve the adaptation capacities of countries, strengthen their resilience and reduce their vulnerability to climate change in the future. To determine what exactly this goal should look like, a work program was created at COP26 in Glasgow to achieve a result by COP28.
“In principle, the countries seem to be able to agree on this,” says Germanwatch expert Ryfisch. After SB58, the question will be whether there should be one large overall adaptation target or several smaller targets – and how to finance them. It would be conceivable, for example, to take the number of people considered vulnerable worldwide as one target. There are already fairly concrete ideas, says Ryfisch. Further talks will be held on this issue between now and COP28.
A central topic in Bonn revolved around the loss and damage fund, which was unexpectedly approved at COP27. A concept is to be in place by COP28, so the focus was now on the details:
The transitional committee, which will discuss the design of the fund, will meet twice more before COP28. A plan must then be in place.
One dispute remained unresolved: Where should the secretariat of the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage be located? The group of Latin American and Caribbean states and the small island states (AILAC and AOSIS) favored the Caribbean Development Bank, while the rest of the G77 favored the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNDRR. In the end, the decision was postponed. With Lukas Scheid and Bernhard Pötter
After the end of SB58 in Bonn, the focus is on the future. What are the “landing zones” for compromises at COP28 in Dubai? The pressure is on, with the presidency of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) fueling expectations for a “historic” conference. Despite the bitter agenda dispute at the Bonn conference, some avenues are emerging. Table.Media spoke with many experts. This is how elements for a compromise in Dubai might look:
All in all, these could form the foundation for a package of measures at COP28: A balanced mix of mitigation and finance, although there are still no resolutions on adaptation. But more money for the poor, better access to aid, and recognizing the claims of emerging and developing countries could relax the fronts somewhat on the crucial issues in Dubai.
Now that the interim conference in Bonn is over, attention turns to COP28 in Dubai. But in the run-up to it, many meetings will be held to discuss problems in advance and to forge alliances. Here is an overview of the most important events in climate diplomacy:
“We need to stop pointing fingers” – these were conciliatory words from the gray eminence of climate conferences, Alden Meyer. “We are all in the same boat,” warned the Senior Associate of the environmental lobby E3G at the end of an often disappointing SB58 in Bonn.
There was a lot of blame-shifting at SB58. Countries argued about the agenda of the conference well into the second week. Many poorer countries accused the rich countries of not contributing enough to climate financing. They only wanted to discuss an emissions reduction program if finance was also on the agenda. Alexandra Endres has summarized the details of these and other disputes.
Also disappointing was the appearance of COP28 Chair Sultan Ahmed al Jaber. He did acknowledge in Bonn that the fossil fuel exit was “inevitable.” But whether there is at least some hope for an “Only al Jaber could phase out fossil fuels” moment remains to be seen: Against tradition, the COP28 chair did not comment on the UAE’s vision and goals for the next climate conference. Bernhard Pötter has nevertheless listed possible “landing points” for COP28.
After two long SB weeks, we are now taking a breather! After all, there are many more important climate events on the agenda, as our overview shows.
The Bonn Climate Change Conference SB58 ended late Thursday with minimal progress toward COP28. Sidetracked by a lengthy dispute over the conference agenda, delegates concluded by sorting out what needed to be done and shelving disputed items.
Thus, the third technical dialogue of the global stocktake (GST) was concluded and issues related to adaptation, loss and damage, and finance were pre-clarified. The dispute over whether emissions reduction (mitigation) and finance belonged on the meeting’s agenda was deferred. The planned decision on the venue for COP29 in 2024 was also postponed – the Eastern European group could not decide between the candidates Bulgaria, Armenia and Azerbaijan amid geopolitical tensions between Russia and the EU.
Irrespective of the technical questions, possible compromises on political issues are emerging for COP28. These include the phase-out of fossil fuels, a global target for renewables, and clarification of the loss and damage committee structures.
Negotiations often made only slow progress. Until the penultimate day, the 5,647 delegates could not even agree on an agenda. Some delegates complained about the rude tone of the negotiations. Even in his opening speech, UN climate chief Simon Stiell addressed the feeling that the common goal was somewhat lost sight of amid national self-interest. He urged delegates to “spend time building stronger relationships across groups and regions.”
The key outcomes of the conference:
The third GST technical dialogue ended in Bonn, where delegates and observers took stock of progress on key issues of emissions reduction, adaptation and finance. Due to a deadlock on the last day, it was impossible to agree on a structure for the GST report in Bonn. This will now be done in Dubai.
Civil society has been heard, said Marine Pouget, GST expert for the climate change network CAN International. She called the technical phase of the GST “quite a success.” But the now starting political phase will negotiate the text that will serve as the foundation for the new versions of the National Climate Targets (NDCs) in 2025 – and there are “a lot of tensions, especially around equity, historical responsibility and financing.”
The dispute now revolves around the questions of how binding the conclusions from the GST can be and how financing is to be coordinated: How, for example, is the rebalancing of global financial flows enshrined in the Paris Agreement (Article 2.1.c) and climate finance from North to South (Article 9) related? This should be clarified at COP28 at the latest.
Negotiations in Bonn kicked off with a dispute over the agenda, which was not resolved until the penultimate day of the conference. The reason: The EU tried to ensure that the “Mitigation Work Programme,” which envisages more effort in CO2 reduction for the 1.5-degree path, would not only be debated at the COPs – as was previously the case – but also at the technical conferences in Bonn. The EU wants to discuss global emissions reductions more than once a year. However, this requires a mandate.
The “Like-Minded Developing Countries,” which also include China, India and Saudi Arabia, strictly rejected this. Officially for formal reasons. But behind this was the old dispute about whether the developed countries should be able to demand more ambition from the developing countries when it comes to CO2 reductions, as long as they do not guarantee any new funding for the Global South.
Ultimately, it was agreed not to include either item on the agenda. However, as negotiations on both topics had continued in the background, the chairs of this conference strand (SBI and SBSTA) included an informal note on the progress of the talks in the final declaration. In this way, they do not want to be forced to start all over again at COP28 in Dubai.
The just transition to a climate-friendly world was also contested in Bonn. The central dispute: Should the negotiations only address the effects of the transformation on employees in the coal or oil industries, for example – or also broader social issues raised by the transformation of the national economy?
“Here, too, the financial issue was very present,” says David Ryfisch, Head of Division of International Climate Policy at the development organization Germanwatch – especially since the social aspect, of all things, was underfunded in the already existing Just Energy Transition partnership with South Africa. “The donor countries have largely ignored that.”
There were no concrete decisions here. In the end, an informal paper was agreed upon, which will serve as the basis for further discussions at COP28.
The Paris Agreement stipulates that a Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) will improve the adaptation capacities of countries, strengthen their resilience and reduce their vulnerability to climate change in the future. To determine what exactly this goal should look like, a work program was created at COP26 in Glasgow to achieve a result by COP28.
“In principle, the countries seem to be able to agree on this,” says Germanwatch expert Ryfisch. After SB58, the question will be whether there should be one large overall adaptation target or several smaller targets – and how to finance them. It would be conceivable, for example, to take the number of people considered vulnerable worldwide as one target. There are already fairly concrete ideas, says Ryfisch. Further talks will be held on this issue between now and COP28.
A central topic in Bonn revolved around the loss and damage fund, which was unexpectedly approved at COP27. A concept is to be in place by COP28, so the focus was now on the details:
The transitional committee, which will discuss the design of the fund, will meet twice more before COP28. A plan must then be in place.
One dispute remained unresolved: Where should the secretariat of the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage be located? The group of Latin American and Caribbean states and the small island states (AILAC and AOSIS) favored the Caribbean Development Bank, while the rest of the G77 favored the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNDRR. In the end, the decision was postponed. With Lukas Scheid and Bernhard Pötter
After the end of SB58 in Bonn, the focus is on the future. What are the “landing zones” for compromises at COP28 in Dubai? The pressure is on, with the presidency of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) fueling expectations for a “historic” conference. Despite the bitter agenda dispute at the Bonn conference, some avenues are emerging. Table.Media spoke with many experts. This is how elements for a compromise in Dubai might look:
All in all, these could form the foundation for a package of measures at COP28: A balanced mix of mitigation and finance, although there are still no resolutions on adaptation. But more money for the poor, better access to aid, and recognizing the claims of emerging and developing countries could relax the fronts somewhat on the crucial issues in Dubai.
Now that the interim conference in Bonn is over, attention turns to COP28 in Dubai. But in the run-up to it, many meetings will be held to discuss problems in advance and to forge alliances. Here is an overview of the most important events in climate diplomacy:
