It’s a surprisingly optimistic outlook: Germany is on track to achieve its climate targets by 2030, said Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck today. Together with UBA President Dirk Messner, he presented the emission data for 2023 and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) projections for the future.
Especially the outlook reveals unexpected developments: The political measures initiated by the coalition would close the previously diagnosed gap between the projected emission data and the set targets by 2030, according to Habeck. However, there are also doubts about the numbers, for example, because they do not yet take into account cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund. In today’s alert, we provide you with assessments and background information on this matter.
It was a cheerful Minister for Economic Affairs who appeared before the cameras at 8 a.m. on Friday morning: He had something “unusual and successful” to announce, said Robert Habeck. And indeed, the numbers he presented with UBA President Dirk Messner are surprisingly positive: The latest projection from the Federal Environment Agency shows that the 2030 climate targets are achievable. Therefore, Habeck expressed optimism about closing the climate gap inherited from the previous coalition by the end of the decade, even as the economy recovers and grows by an average of 1.4 percent per year.
At the beginning of the legislative period, the gap was still 1,100 million tons of CO2 equivalents and last year, the UBA assumed, in the best-case scenario, emissions were 194 million tons too high. The latest projection now shows that cumulative emissions by 2030 could even be 47 million tons lower than required by the Climate Change Act.
However, it is unclear how reliable the new estimate is. Because the cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund and the weakening of requirements for new heating systems have not yet been factored into the projection. There are also concerns about the new numbers regarding the impact of land use changes (LULUCF).
According to UBA projection data, the individual sectors will perform as follows by 2030:
Overall, according to the projection, Germany will achieve a 64 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to the base year of 1990. The target is 65 percent. However, due to the projected overachievement of targets in some sectors in previous years, there will be no cumulative gap over the individual years. According to BMWK, measures for more efficient buildings (BEG), the Building Energy Act (GEG), and an increase in truck tolls “have contributed to reducing the gap in the building and transportation sectors”.
However, there are also reasons to doubt the UBA projection. The massive cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) have not yet been taken into account in the projection report, UBA President Dirk Messner admitted in response to inquiries from Table.Briefings. Regarding the cuts to the KTF, attempts were made to protect all climate action measures from cuts, said Minister for Economic Affairs Habeck. Overall, the “climate action measures in the KTF have been preserved and protected”.
However, this is only partially true. The 60 billion euros that had to be cut from the reserves of the KTF due to the budget ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court reduced the planned funding amounts for many climate action measures. The building sector is particularly affected, with reduced funding for energy-efficient building renovations. It is also unclear whether there will be sufficient funds for heating subsidies in the coming years. Nevertheless, the new UBA projection in the building sector almost exactly matches last year’s projection. The German Environmental Aid (DUH) is therefore skeptical about the projection in the building sector: “In the UBA scenario, there are still numerous measures that have since been politically revoked,” said DUH expert Elisabeth Staudt Table.Briefings.
For the past year, the UBA reports a significant decline in emissions by over ten percent compared to the previous year. This corresponds to the estimates presented by the think tank Agora Energiewende earlier this year. According to the BMWK, this decline is mainly due to the “drop in production in energy-intensive industries” following the Russian attack on Ukraine.
Minister for Economic Affairs Habeck was extremely optimistic about the coming years: “Through political measures, we have managed to get back on track for the future. Growth and production go hand in hand with a climate-neutral economy and society,” said Habeck. If we “stay on course with climate action, then we are on track.” Questioning climate protection measures would endanger success.
During the presentation of the new data, Dirk Messner, President of the Federal Environment Agency, stated, “We’re not out of the woods yet, but the direction and speed are on track.” However, Messner emphasized that the transportation sector remains the “problem child” of climate policy. He stressed that if emissions in this sector are not reduced by 2030, there must be a rapid reduction thereafter to achieve net-zero goals.
Regarding long-term climate goals beyond 2030, Messner had previously warned in early March that “we are in the decisive decade to bring Germany and Europe onto the path to climate neutrality. And we are in danger of squander the opportunity,” as reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung. The Federal Environment Agency also stated in its report: “The goal of net greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045 continues to be at risk.”
Lutz Weischer, Director of the Berlin office of Germanwatch, called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to intervene. “Scholz must use his directive authority to ensure that his Minister of Transport, Wissing, finally implements additional climate action measures in transportation.” Weischer cautioned that if Germany continues to miss European targets in the area of effort sharing due to Volker Wissing’s denial of reality, it will become costly for the federal budget.
Another cause for concern is the climate balance of land use (LULUCF). In the past, Federal Environment Agency projections assumed that more greenhouse gases were sequestered than emitted in land use, acting as a sink and offsetting the unavoidable emissions from agriculture and industry, amounting to around 20 million tons of CO2 per year.
In the new projection, however, land use changes no longer act as a sink: By 2030, their balance is roughly neutral, and by 2050, they even lead to additional emissions of five to ten million tons per year. According to the Federal Environment Agency, this change is due to a revised calculation method that gives more weight to ponds.
It’s a surprisingly optimistic outlook: Germany is on track to achieve its climate targets by 2030, said Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck today. Together with UBA President Dirk Messner, he presented the emission data for 2023 and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) projections for the future.
Especially the outlook reveals unexpected developments: The political measures initiated by the coalition would close the previously diagnosed gap between the projected emission data and the set targets by 2030, according to Habeck. However, there are also doubts about the numbers, for example, because they do not yet take into account cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund. In today’s alert, we provide you with assessments and background information on this matter.
It was a cheerful Minister for Economic Affairs who appeared before the cameras at 8 a.m. on Friday morning: He had something “unusual and successful” to announce, said Robert Habeck. And indeed, the numbers he presented with UBA President Dirk Messner are surprisingly positive: The latest projection from the Federal Environment Agency shows that the 2030 climate targets are achievable. Therefore, Habeck expressed optimism about closing the climate gap inherited from the previous coalition by the end of the decade, even as the economy recovers and grows by an average of 1.4 percent per year.
At the beginning of the legislative period, the gap was still 1,100 million tons of CO2 equivalents and last year, the UBA assumed, in the best-case scenario, emissions were 194 million tons too high. The latest projection now shows that cumulative emissions by 2030 could even be 47 million tons lower than required by the Climate Change Act.
However, it is unclear how reliable the new estimate is. Because the cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund and the weakening of requirements for new heating systems have not yet been factored into the projection. There are also concerns about the new numbers regarding the impact of land use changes (LULUCF).
According to UBA projection data, the individual sectors will perform as follows by 2030:
Overall, according to the projection, Germany will achieve a 64 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to the base year of 1990. The target is 65 percent. However, due to the projected overachievement of targets in some sectors in previous years, there will be no cumulative gap over the individual years. According to BMWK, measures for more efficient buildings (BEG), the Building Energy Act (GEG), and an increase in truck tolls “have contributed to reducing the gap in the building and transportation sectors”.
However, there are also reasons to doubt the UBA projection. The massive cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) have not yet been taken into account in the projection report, UBA President Dirk Messner admitted in response to inquiries from Table.Briefings. Regarding the cuts to the KTF, attempts were made to protect all climate action measures from cuts, said Minister for Economic Affairs Habeck. Overall, the “climate action measures in the KTF have been preserved and protected”.
However, this is only partially true. The 60 billion euros that had to be cut from the reserves of the KTF due to the budget ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court reduced the planned funding amounts for many climate action measures. The building sector is particularly affected, with reduced funding for energy-efficient building renovations. It is also unclear whether there will be sufficient funds for heating subsidies in the coming years. Nevertheless, the new UBA projection in the building sector almost exactly matches last year’s projection. The German Environmental Aid (DUH) is therefore skeptical about the projection in the building sector: “In the UBA scenario, there are still numerous measures that have since been politically revoked,” said DUH expert Elisabeth Staudt Table.Briefings.
For the past year, the UBA reports a significant decline in emissions by over ten percent compared to the previous year. This corresponds to the estimates presented by the think tank Agora Energiewende earlier this year. According to the BMWK, this decline is mainly due to the “drop in production in energy-intensive industries” following the Russian attack on Ukraine.
Minister for Economic Affairs Habeck was extremely optimistic about the coming years: “Through political measures, we have managed to get back on track for the future. Growth and production go hand in hand with a climate-neutral economy and society,” said Habeck. If we “stay on course with climate action, then we are on track.” Questioning climate protection measures would endanger success.
During the presentation of the new data, Dirk Messner, President of the Federal Environment Agency, stated, “We’re not out of the woods yet, but the direction and speed are on track.” However, Messner emphasized that the transportation sector remains the “problem child” of climate policy. He stressed that if emissions in this sector are not reduced by 2030, there must be a rapid reduction thereafter to achieve net-zero goals.
Regarding long-term climate goals beyond 2030, Messner had previously warned in early March that “we are in the decisive decade to bring Germany and Europe onto the path to climate neutrality. And we are in danger of squander the opportunity,” as reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung. The Federal Environment Agency also stated in its report: “The goal of net greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045 continues to be at risk.”
Lutz Weischer, Director of the Berlin office of Germanwatch, called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to intervene. “Scholz must use his directive authority to ensure that his Minister of Transport, Wissing, finally implements additional climate action measures in transportation.” Weischer cautioned that if Germany continues to miss European targets in the area of effort sharing due to Volker Wissing’s denial of reality, it will become costly for the federal budget.
Another cause for concern is the climate balance of land use (LULUCF). In the past, Federal Environment Agency projections assumed that more greenhouse gases were sequestered than emitted in land use, acting as a sink and offsetting the unavoidable emissions from agriculture and industry, amounting to around 20 million tons of CO2 per year.
In the new projection, however, land use changes no longer act as a sink: By 2030, their balance is roughly neutral, and by 2050, they even lead to additional emissions of five to ten million tons per year. According to the Federal Environment Agency, this change is due to a revised calculation method that gives more weight to ponds.
