He is a passionate and dedicated politician who spares neither himself nor those around him: As Executive Vice President of the EU Commission and EU Commissioner for Climate Action Policy, Frans Timmermans has prepared and pushed through important decisions over the last few years. Now he has made another decision: He will run in the elections in his Dutch homeland – and with it, resign from his EU offices.
The decision itself comes as no surprise. The timing, however, does, on the penultimate day before political Brussels descends into the summer hiatus. This Table.Alert therefore explains what will happen now, how the Commission can react – and what his resignation means for EU and global climate policy.
And that, above all, is nothing good. Because with Timmermans departure, a climate expert and efficient string-puller will be leaving this important EU post. Shortly before important decisions in Brussels and at the next COP in Dubai, the pilot is leaving the ship. What’s more, if a right-wing government comes to power in Spain, climate change deniers will have their say. Spain’s EU Council presidency could therefore turn into an international disaster for EU climate policy.
Not a bright outlook, that Frans Timmermans’ career plans imply. But since the climate issue is probably really close to his heart, it will be interesting to see how he arranges his succession. Perhaps Commission President von der Leyen will quickly present us with a capable successor. Timmerman’s political legacy and the global climate deserve it.
“This morning I told the Labour and Green Left parties that I would love to be a candidate to lead them in the next elections,” Frans Timmermans said Thursday. This makes official what had been rumored since the end of last year and had become concrete since the resignation of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte two weeks ago. Timmermans is turning his back on Brussels and wants to succeed Rutte.
This is tantamount to Timmermans’ early end as the EU’s Green Deal chief and executive vice president of the Commission. Not effective immediately, however. Officially, the two alliance parties do not intend to nominate their top candidate until mid-August. So until then, the Green Deal commissioner can and will remain in Brussels. A Commission spokesman also clarified this on Thursday: The candidacy is initially hypothetical and subject to an internal party process. Until that process is completed, it will not impact Timmermans’ availability as a member of the collegium and the continuation of his work as executive vice president for the Green Deal, the spokesman said.
Some regret Timmermans’ departure from Brussels. Green MEP Michael Bloss, for instance, commented that the EU Commission was losing the visionary builder of the Green Deal, whose achievements were historic. Dutch Social Democrat Mohammed Chahim said Timmermans was what the Netherlands needed: “Leadership and vision to make the Netherlands greener and more social.”
Others cannot wait for Timmermans to leave Brussels finally. “He will not be missed. We are counting on Dutch voters to treat him the way he deserves,” tweeted Italian Lega politician Matteo Salvini. Peter Liese, environmental spokesman for the EPP, told Politico that Timmermans’ departure is good for climate action. He said Timmermans’ provocative nature had complicated the matter with the Nature Restoration Law. Timmermans’ party colleague Dennis Radtke wrote: “There is probably no one who has done so much damage in Europe in recent years and who cared so little about jobs and social equality.”
The question of who will succeed Timmermans by the end of the legislature in the fall of 2024 is not a simple one. First of all, the Dutch government will propose a new commissioner and the outgoing cabinet will have to accept the proposal. However, this person will unlikely become a Commission vice-president or take over the Green Deal portfolio. It is up to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to decide who will be in charge of which portfolio.
There is speculation in EU circles that the Green Deal will be taken over either by Italian Commissioner for Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, or by Maroš Šefčovič, Vice President for Interinstitutional Relations. The latter was previously Energy Commissioner, which is why he is considered suitable for the post.
It also remains to be seen how significant the political weakness will be in the last year of the Von der Leyen Commission. Not only is Timmermans about to leave, but the Commission’s second Executive Vice President, Margrethe Vestager, also wants to leave Brussels to take over the management of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Luxembourg. There is a danger that the Commission will be a lame duck in several areas between now and the European elections in 2024.
Timmermans will undoubtedly leave a big gap in the Green Deal. However, the main legislative proposals of the Fit for 55 package have already been negotiated. At present, the dossiers on nature conservation and agriculture in particular, such as the Nature Restoration Law, the Industrial Emissions Directive, the Pesticides Regulation and the regulation of new genome editing, are still in the trilogue.
Timmermans also distinguished himself on nature conservation legislation and repeatedly intervened in the debate, especially at the political level, for example, when the Nature Restoration Law was at risk of failing in Parliament. However, Timmermans is not responsible for the farm-to-fork and biodiversity strategies, but the Commissioner for the Environment and Agriculture, Virginijus Sinkevičius. The loss of Timmermans would be politically significant, but in terms of content, it would be bearable for the EU Commission.
From a climate policy perspective, Frans Timmermans’ departure comes at both a good and very bad time.
Internally, the resignation of the executive vice-president of the EU Commission and climate commissioner is manageable: Timmermans has pushed through the major packages of this Commission’s “Green Deal” with considerable dedication and success. He is the architect of the Fit for 55 package, ensured that the EU can raise its climate target to minus 57 percent by 2030, and pushed (partly successfully) to use the post-pandemic economic recovery fund for a climate-sensitive reboot. Experts say that about 80 percent of these tasks have been completed.
Manon Dufour, head of the Brussels office of the environmental think tank E3G, praises Timmermans. She believes he was instrumental in the world’s first adoption of a decarbonization framework for an entire economy. The Green Deal is the “best strategy for the EU’s post-pandemic recovery,” Dufour said.
Key achievements of Timmermans’ tenure from a climate policy perspective in the Fit for 55 package:
However, the matter of the Nature Restoration Law, which will now enter the trilogue, remains unresolved. But Timmermans vehemently fought to ensure that the law would not already fall through in parliament.
The loss of Timmermans could pose significant problems for the EU’s international role. At the COPs and on other occasions, he presented himself as a self-confident man of action with a loud voice and a strong back, defending the comparatively progressive role of the Europeans in the face of many who sought to slow down progress. Even though quiet internal criticism of Timmermans was voiced repeatedly: He was considered too assertive, did not listen much, and sometimes patronized the representatives of smaller states in particular.
The EU’s problem: Four months before the important COP28, its climate helmsman is leaving. Timmermans will be missed as an “internationally excellently networked negotiating heavyweight,” says Oldag Caspar of the environment and development organization Germanwatch. The EU needs an experienced person “at top speed” because “international climate action needs a strong EU voice in the negotiations.”
The EU’s situation in Dubai could become even more problematic: If the conservative People’s Party (PP) wins in the Spanish elections next weekend, the right-wing populist Vox could enter the government. Observers expect little ambition on climate action from this coalition in the role of EU Council presidency. On the contrary, the Vox leader is considered a climate denier and wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. This would fundamentally weaken the EU position compared to Spain’s highly experienced and internationally well-connected current climate minister, Teresa Ribera.
In light of this possible constellation, the EU environment ministers met informally in Valladolid at the beginning of July. There was no official announcement afterward. But observers said that “landing zones” had emerged, which the EU was aiming for a compromise. That position was also raised at last Thursday’s meeting in Brussels with Sultan Al Jaber, COP president-elect, industry minister and oil chief of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These include:
On October 20, the member states want to set the course for COP. According to negotiators, the EU could revise its previously very UAE-friendly position on using controversial CCS technology in a future energy system. Back in the spring, member states had already agreed to a formulation calling for an “energy system free of unabated fossil fuels” – very similar to Al Jaber’s suggestion that emissions should be fought, not fuels. The proposal is seen as opening the door to CCS technology.
Since then, countries like Germany, Denmark, Austria and Belgium have opposed this soft EU stance. They are pushing for the EU to call for a global fossil fuel phase-out. A freshly appointed EU climate commissioner to succeed Timmermans would be a shaky candidate at the October EU meeting and at the December COP on this issue.
“This puts a stronger role on member countries to put pressure for these concerns,” says Linda Kalcher of the Brussels-based think tank Strategic Perspective. In addition, if the Spanish presidency were truly unable to speak in Dubai, it would be all the more up to individual EU ministers to make their voices heard. Given the varying opinions on climate ambitions, however, this could fragment and weaken the EU’s position.
Linda Kalcher does have some consolation, however: Should Timmermans be successful in Dutch politics and become prime minister of his country, there would be a prime minister in the EU Council who “really understands and has pierced the issues of climate and agricultural policy – and who is even already involved in the debate on the 2040 climate targets.”
He is a passionate and dedicated politician who spares neither himself nor those around him: As Executive Vice President of the EU Commission and EU Commissioner for Climate Action Policy, Frans Timmermans has prepared and pushed through important decisions over the last few years. Now he has made another decision: He will run in the elections in his Dutch homeland – and with it, resign from his EU offices.
The decision itself comes as no surprise. The timing, however, does, on the penultimate day before political Brussels descends into the summer hiatus. This Table.Alert therefore explains what will happen now, how the Commission can react – and what his resignation means for EU and global climate policy.
And that, above all, is nothing good. Because with Timmermans departure, a climate expert and efficient string-puller will be leaving this important EU post. Shortly before important decisions in Brussels and at the next COP in Dubai, the pilot is leaving the ship. What’s more, if a right-wing government comes to power in Spain, climate change deniers will have their say. Spain’s EU Council presidency could therefore turn into an international disaster for EU climate policy.
Not a bright outlook, that Frans Timmermans’ career plans imply. But since the climate issue is probably really close to his heart, it will be interesting to see how he arranges his succession. Perhaps Commission President von der Leyen will quickly present us with a capable successor. Timmerman’s political legacy and the global climate deserve it.
“This morning I told the Labour and Green Left parties that I would love to be a candidate to lead them in the next elections,” Frans Timmermans said Thursday. This makes official what had been rumored since the end of last year and had become concrete since the resignation of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte two weeks ago. Timmermans is turning his back on Brussels and wants to succeed Rutte.
This is tantamount to Timmermans’ early end as the EU’s Green Deal chief and executive vice president of the Commission. Not effective immediately, however. Officially, the two alliance parties do not intend to nominate their top candidate until mid-August. So until then, the Green Deal commissioner can and will remain in Brussels. A Commission spokesman also clarified this on Thursday: The candidacy is initially hypothetical and subject to an internal party process. Until that process is completed, it will not impact Timmermans’ availability as a member of the collegium and the continuation of his work as executive vice president for the Green Deal, the spokesman said.
Some regret Timmermans’ departure from Brussels. Green MEP Michael Bloss, for instance, commented that the EU Commission was losing the visionary builder of the Green Deal, whose achievements were historic. Dutch Social Democrat Mohammed Chahim said Timmermans was what the Netherlands needed: “Leadership and vision to make the Netherlands greener and more social.”
Others cannot wait for Timmermans to leave Brussels finally. “He will not be missed. We are counting on Dutch voters to treat him the way he deserves,” tweeted Italian Lega politician Matteo Salvini. Peter Liese, environmental spokesman for the EPP, told Politico that Timmermans’ departure is good for climate action. He said Timmermans’ provocative nature had complicated the matter with the Nature Restoration Law. Timmermans’ party colleague Dennis Radtke wrote: “There is probably no one who has done so much damage in Europe in recent years and who cared so little about jobs and social equality.”
The question of who will succeed Timmermans by the end of the legislature in the fall of 2024 is not a simple one. First of all, the Dutch government will propose a new commissioner and the outgoing cabinet will have to accept the proposal. However, this person will unlikely become a Commission vice-president or take over the Green Deal portfolio. It is up to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to decide who will be in charge of which portfolio.
There is speculation in EU circles that the Green Deal will be taken over either by Italian Commissioner for Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, or by Maroš Šefčovič, Vice President for Interinstitutional Relations. The latter was previously Energy Commissioner, which is why he is considered suitable for the post.
It also remains to be seen how significant the political weakness will be in the last year of the Von der Leyen Commission. Not only is Timmermans about to leave, but the Commission’s second Executive Vice President, Margrethe Vestager, also wants to leave Brussels to take over the management of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Luxembourg. There is a danger that the Commission will be a lame duck in several areas between now and the European elections in 2024.
Timmermans will undoubtedly leave a big gap in the Green Deal. However, the main legislative proposals of the Fit for 55 package have already been negotiated. At present, the dossiers on nature conservation and agriculture in particular, such as the Nature Restoration Law, the Industrial Emissions Directive, the Pesticides Regulation and the regulation of new genome editing, are still in the trilogue.
Timmermans also distinguished himself on nature conservation legislation and repeatedly intervened in the debate, especially at the political level, for example, when the Nature Restoration Law was at risk of failing in Parliament. However, Timmermans is not responsible for the farm-to-fork and biodiversity strategies, but the Commissioner for the Environment and Agriculture, Virginijus Sinkevičius. The loss of Timmermans would be politically significant, but in terms of content, it would be bearable for the EU Commission.
From a climate policy perspective, Frans Timmermans’ departure comes at both a good and very bad time.
Internally, the resignation of the executive vice-president of the EU Commission and climate commissioner is manageable: Timmermans has pushed through the major packages of this Commission’s “Green Deal” with considerable dedication and success. He is the architect of the Fit for 55 package, ensured that the EU can raise its climate target to minus 57 percent by 2030, and pushed (partly successfully) to use the post-pandemic economic recovery fund for a climate-sensitive reboot. Experts say that about 80 percent of these tasks have been completed.
Manon Dufour, head of the Brussels office of the environmental think tank E3G, praises Timmermans. She believes he was instrumental in the world’s first adoption of a decarbonization framework for an entire economy. The Green Deal is the “best strategy for the EU’s post-pandemic recovery,” Dufour said.
Key achievements of Timmermans’ tenure from a climate policy perspective in the Fit for 55 package:
However, the matter of the Nature Restoration Law, which will now enter the trilogue, remains unresolved. But Timmermans vehemently fought to ensure that the law would not already fall through in parliament.
The loss of Timmermans could pose significant problems for the EU’s international role. At the COPs and on other occasions, he presented himself as a self-confident man of action with a loud voice and a strong back, defending the comparatively progressive role of the Europeans in the face of many who sought to slow down progress. Even though quiet internal criticism of Timmermans was voiced repeatedly: He was considered too assertive, did not listen much, and sometimes patronized the representatives of smaller states in particular.
The EU’s problem: Four months before the important COP28, its climate helmsman is leaving. Timmermans will be missed as an “internationally excellently networked negotiating heavyweight,” says Oldag Caspar of the environment and development organization Germanwatch. The EU needs an experienced person “at top speed” because “international climate action needs a strong EU voice in the negotiations.”
The EU’s situation in Dubai could become even more problematic: If the conservative People’s Party (PP) wins in the Spanish elections next weekend, the right-wing populist Vox could enter the government. Observers expect little ambition on climate action from this coalition in the role of EU Council presidency. On the contrary, the Vox leader is considered a climate denier and wants to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. This would fundamentally weaken the EU position compared to Spain’s highly experienced and internationally well-connected current climate minister, Teresa Ribera.
In light of this possible constellation, the EU environment ministers met informally in Valladolid at the beginning of July. There was no official announcement afterward. But observers said that “landing zones” had emerged, which the EU was aiming for a compromise. That position was also raised at last Thursday’s meeting in Brussels with Sultan Al Jaber, COP president-elect, industry minister and oil chief of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These include:
On October 20, the member states want to set the course for COP. According to negotiators, the EU could revise its previously very UAE-friendly position on using controversial CCS technology in a future energy system. Back in the spring, member states had already agreed to a formulation calling for an “energy system free of unabated fossil fuels” – very similar to Al Jaber’s suggestion that emissions should be fought, not fuels. The proposal is seen as opening the door to CCS technology.
Since then, countries like Germany, Denmark, Austria and Belgium have opposed this soft EU stance. They are pushing for the EU to call for a global fossil fuel phase-out. A freshly appointed EU climate commissioner to succeed Timmermans would be a shaky candidate at the October EU meeting and at the December COP on this issue.
“This puts a stronger role on member countries to put pressure for these concerns,” says Linda Kalcher of the Brussels-based think tank Strategic Perspective. In addition, if the Spanish presidency were truly unable to speak in Dubai, it would be all the more up to individual EU ministers to make their voices heard. Given the varying opinions on climate ambitions, however, this could fragment and weaken the EU’s position.
Linda Kalcher does have some consolation, however: Should Timmermans be successful in Dutch politics and become prime minister of his country, there would be a prime minister in the EU Council who “really understands and has pierced the issues of climate and agricultural policy – and who is even already involved in the debate on the 2040 climate targets.”
