Rarely have technical details such as the flap behavior on an aircraft wing led to such big debates as in the last few days. Germany talked about how and why Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had to cancel her planned trip to Oceania in Abu Dhabi. And even more so among us fellow passengers on board the German Air Force plane when it did not take off again. What has been forgotten here: What impact does this failure actually have on German foreign and climate policy? Since Oceania was supposed to set the course for Germany’s new foreign climate policy, we now provide this information here.
Nine hours away by plane, the largest investment program in the developed world is celebrating its anniversary: One year after its adoption, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is generating billions and billions of green investments and advancing climate action. Nico Beckert has investigated where and how successful it has been so far. And we also take a second close look at South America: There, the rainforest states have recently decided to protect the Amazon forest. Alexandra Endres found out why this is so difficult and what criminal organizations are preventing it.
We will stay on the ground for the time being and hope you enjoy reading.
When the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) went into effect a year ago, there was a lot of excitement. The subsidy program for the establishment of green industries, initially budgeted at 369 billion dollars, put European manufacturers at a disadvantage and could lead to a trade war and a race for government subsidies, according to fears.
One year after enactment, a mixed IRA record emerges:
However, there are also doubts about these figures, most of which come from climate advocacy groups. “In some cases, investment projects were simply announced again after the IRA went into effect. Some of the investments would probably have been realized even without IRA funding“, Niclas Poitiers, Research Fellow at the think tank Bruegel, tells Table.Media.
Considering the size of the US economy, 170,000 jobs is not much, he says. In some areas, “billions in subsidies are flowing, but very few jobs are being created”. The Bruegel researcher warns of an international subsidy race “at the end of which billions could end up with large companies, but hardly any positive effects are achieved in terms of jobs and really new investments”.
There is more agreement on the climate impacts of the IRA. According to a Science paper, the IRA would contribute to a 43 to 48 percent reduction in emissions in 2035 compared to the 2005 baseline. Without IRA measures, emissions would fall by only 27 to 35 percent. The study is based on nine calculations and shows quite clearly the climate benefits of the subsidy program. Through reduced costs for green technologies, the IRA will also have positive climate impacts in other states, according to Bruegel.
However, a lack of investment in the partly ailing power grid could diminish the impact of the IRA. If the US does not expand energy transmission capacity twice as fast as it has in the past decade, a good half of the IRA’s climate effect could be wiped out, a Princeton University study shows. Meeting US climate goals will require “robust regulations and additional action at the federal and state levels“, according to Jesse Jenkins, an IRA expert at Princeton University. He cites, for example, an earlier coal phase-out and better regulations in the agriculture and forestry sectors. The think tank BloombergNEF had recently cited a CO2 price as an additional measure to complement the IRA.
Poitiers of Bruegel believes more focused subsidies make more sense than the IRA’s watering-can approach: “Building up a Western solar industry doesn’t necessarily result in even one more solar panel being made if it’s just shifting production.” Poitiers instead suggests government investment in infrastructure, such as EV charging stations, or in decarbonizing the steel and cement industries or socially offsetting climate costs.
Nils Redeker, Vice Director of the Jacques Delors Centre for European Policy, tells Table.Media that he also sees a need for more targeted subsidies. The US lags behind China and Europe in the production of green technologies, he said. Redeker also rejects the IRA’s watering-can approach: “For new technologies such as hydrogen or advanced batteries, such subsidies can help build competitive industries. In the case of established mass-produced products such as solar cells, however, the US will hardly be able to catch up with Asian manufacturers.”
He advises Europe not to copy the IRA directly but to “focus on promoting sectors where you already have a foot in the door or where there is still technological development potential”. The next EU Commission must find a better answer to the industrial policy challenge, he said. “In the medium term, we cannot solve the problem through national subsidies alone. To protect the internal market from economic divergence and unfair competition, we need coordination and funding at EU level.” This is a tall order, he said, but one that the EU will definitely have to manage.
Meanwhile, how high the cost of the IRA will be in the coming years is still unclear. In fact, analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs estimate that companies could claim as much as 1.2 trillion dollars in IRA tax benefits and subsidies over the next decade, allowing them to make up to 2.9 trillion dollars in investments. A Brookings study reached similar conclusions. Despite these high costs, the IRA “could be a cost-effective incentive for reducing carbon emissions”, according to the authors. IRA incentives are likely to cost less than 100 dollars per ton of CO2 saved, which is lower than estimated greenhouse gas damages, which range from 100 dollars to 380 dollars per ton, they said.
The failed visit of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to Oceania also has consequences for German and international climate policy. Beyond the political embarrassments and technical mishaps, the Foreign Minister’s cancelation also slows down and prevents numerous developments and projects key to international climate action at the Federal Foreign Office.
In Australia, on the one hand, Baerbock wanted to highlight the good cooperation: Germany could learn a lot from Australia regarding protection against cyberattacks and wanted to thank it for supporting Ukraine. She also planned to visit the National Emergency Management Agency, which was established a year ago after the experience with the catastrophic forest fires of 2019/20. The delegation also planned to talk to representatives from the Australian economy about green hydrogen, among other things.
At the same time, however, the Foreign Minister would have been able to urge Australia to show more ambition in climate policy during the internal talks: The new Labor government under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and individual states, in particular, have changed the extremely climate-hostile course of their predecessors. They invest massively in renewables and discuss a CO2 tariff (CBAM) based on the EU model.
Despite this, the Australian government continues to support many new oil and gas projects with government funds and aims to expand gas production. According to the think tank Climate Action Tracker, the climate course of the new government is still far from what would be necessary for 1.5 degrees. Their verdict: insufficient.
With Australia considering hosting COP31 in 2026, the German delegation wanted to call for more ambitious climate action. After all, Australia is the only developed country considered a deforestation hotspot. It has the eighth-highest carbon emissions per capita globally and the highest carbon emissions from coal use globally. Since 2019, the country has also refused to contribute to international climate financing in the UN’s Green Climate Fund – a constant source of criticism against the developed countries at climate conferences in the debate on financial matters.
Nor will a meeting of NGO delegates on climate take place: Baerbock’s delegation also included the head of the Climate Action Network Europe and the head of the European Environmental Bureau from Brussels, Chiara Martinelli and Patrick ten Brink. They had intended to sit down with Australian NGOs for joint strategic planning.
The trip’s cancellation also shelves German plans to play a more prominent role in the Indo-Pacific, not only in geopolitics, but also climate policy. The itinerary envisaged Baerbock inaugurating a new German embassy in Suva, the capital of the island republic of Fiji. The German special ambassador for the Pacific island states, Beate Greski, who currently resides in Canberra, is supposed to push these plans forward.
In times of tight budgets, the new embassy is a strategic investment by the top of the Foreign Office. Its purpose is to demonstrate Germany’s commitment to Fiji, an island state particularly vulnerable to climate change and host of the COP23 climate conference in Bonn 2017. The country is an important partner in the group of “small island states” at the UN negotiations. Baerbock had already visited the Pacific island state of Palau last year. Its government was open to possible financial aid, but blocked the expansion of renewables due to unclear internal and economic interdependencies. Now the German choice for a position fell on Fiji.
The new embassy is also meant to show how climate foreign policy is changing the organization of the Foreign Service – among other things, by ensuring that all key embassies closely monitor and support the climate policies of their host countries. The Foreign Office leadership has identified about 50 missions worldwide as climate focus embassies: The embassies in the G20 countries, the V20 countries (the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change) and other key countries. The Foreign Office is currently coordinating a new “Foreign Climate Policy Strategy” in the government.
The technical problem with the government plane could also affect the upcoming COP28 in Dubai: The German Foreign Minister used important political capital to get help from the UAE in case of an emergency. She also spoke with the country’s foreign minister during her first unplanned extended stay. However, Germany actually wants to press the hosts of the next climate COP in December to step up efforts and demand progress on climate and human rights issues.
At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, for instance, the differences between Baerbock and the UAE Industry Minister and head of the oil and gas company Adnoc, Sultan Al Jaber, became apparent. While Germany is pushing for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels as soon as possible, oil and gas countries like the UAE only want to talk about phasing out “unabated” carbon emissions. A massive expansion of the controversial CCUS technology would accompany this. Baerbock’s current “debt of gratitude” to the Arab country will not make a tough confrontation on this issue any easier now.
Last week’s summit in Belém brought – apart from the founding of an international anti-deforestation alliance – progress about which little has been reported so far: In their final declaration, the eight Amazon states agreed to take joint action against organized crime across national borders in the future. The illegal activities of the mafia are a major driver of environmental destruction in the Amazon, but the issue has played virtually no role in the international forest conservation debate. Experts now see the fact that the Amazon Summit dealt with the issue at all as progress.
María Fernanda Ramírez, an expert on environmental crimes at Insight Crime, a US and Colombia-based think tank specializing in security issues, told Table.Media that the meeting set “a vital regional precedent in the battle against environmental crimes.” Nevertheless, the summit’s final declaration “falls short in addressing the specific targets required to curb deforestation,” she criticizes. It lacks a “comprehensive strategy to combat organized crime” in the Amazon region.
In this context, Ramírez also quotes Gustavo Faleiros, Director of Environmental Research at the Pulitzer Center: “Countries still see [armed groups] as an internal issue and not really connected with the overall agenda of conservation and reduction of emissions.” As the online medium InfoAmazonía reports, armed gangs are active in around 70 percent of municipal districts between Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela and run their businesses across state borders.
Obviously, it is impossible to accurately measure the extent of the damage caused by organized crime to the rainforest. But Ruth Nogueron, forest expert at the World Resources Institute (WRI), replied to a question from Table.Media: “Along increased deforestation, we are seeing an increasing and widespread illegality and violence in the Amazon Basin.” And the UN World Drug Report sees “narco-deforestation” as a “growing threat” to the Amazon.
The destruction of the forest is accelerated by organized crime, writes Robert Muggah, founder of the Brazilian Igarapé Institute, which works on climate and security issues, in Foreign Policy. The mafia is diversifying its business beyond drug trafficking, creating an “ecosystem of crime.” A report prepared by the Igarapé Institute in cooperation with Insight Crime describes it in particular detail.
The Amazon states want to take more decisive action against this in the future. Among other things, they plan to:
But how exactly the plans will be implemented remains unclear. According to WRI forest expert Ruth Nogueron, it is now important:
The WRI expert also advocates for environmental authorities to be supported by customs, the military and other security agencies in the fight against organized crime.
But Bram Ebus, who analyzes the transnational security problems and resource conflicts in the region for the Crisis Group in Bogotá, sees precisely this as a risk. Although the planned cooperation on security issues is of “utmost importance,” it harbors risks. Especially when armed groups are to work together “that have already been tarnished by abuses of power and human rights violations.” For this reason, he considers it indispensable to obtain the consent of the people of the Amazon and to actively involve non-military state agencies in the cooperation.
In addition, the geopolitical climate in Latin America can change quickly, writes Ebus. Brazil and Colombia are currently “led by progressive presidents who prioritize environmental protection and the Amazon.” This opened “a narrow window of opportunity” for “a robust Amazon agenda.” But no one knows when the window will close again. Therefore, Ebus says, “prompt presentation of tangible proposals that can garner support from the international community, particularly in terms of financial backing,” must be put forward without delay.
The eight Amazon countries that jointly signed the Belém Declaration also call on the developed countries to financially support the conservation of the Amazon rainforest. The issue is thus likely to become important at COP28.
Germany’s Social Democratic Development Minister Svenja Schulze visited Mauritania on Monday and Tuesday. After the military coups in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, the country is considered one of the few remaining stable countries in the region and Europe’s main and last partner in the Sahel. Since July, Schulze has chaired the Sahel Alliance, an international donor alliance. Commenting on her visit, the Development Minister said: “Germany is not involved in the Sahel because it would be easy. We are so committed precisely because the situation is difficult and fragile.” One goal of Germany’s commitment is to create economic prospects for the region. One way to do this is by building a hydrogen economy.
“Mauritania is one of the world’s best hydrogen locations,” Stefan Liebing, CEO of Conjuncta, told Table Media. There is inexpensive electricity around the clock – from the sun during the day and from the wind at night. In addition, the location on the Atlantic gives access to water and a port infrastructure is available. According to Liebing, these are prerequisites determining the economic viability of a project.
There is still no sign of green hydrogen on the ground in Mauritania, because to date there has only been a memorandum of understanding between the consortium with German participation and the Mauritanian government for the 34 billion US dollar project. In 2028, the German consultancy Conjuncta is supposed to get started: With a 400-megawatt plant for the production of green hydrogen, northeast of the capital Nouakchott. To this end, the Hamburg-based company has teamed up with the joint venture Infinity Power. The company is backed by the Egyptian green power producer Infinity and a state-owned company for renewables, Masdar from the Gulf emirate of Abu Dhabi. The eco-friendly electricity for electrolysis will be supplied by wind turbines and photovoltaic plants in Mauritania, and the energy will be exported via a port.
“The technologies for generating green hydrogen are there,” says Sylvia Schattauer, Director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy Systems since 2022, in an interview with Table Media. But: “Now it’s about scaling up. The systems and components have been manufactured so far and are now to be mass-produced in large quantities.” For her, this is comparable to the transition from assembling a car by hand to production on an assembly line. “It’s about optimization. This is not a question of basic research, but an engineering task.”
The idea of the consortium with German participation is to initially connect several small modular plants in Mauritania in order to reach the targeted 400-megawatt electrolysis capacity in 2028. According to Schattauer, one of the areas for application-oriented research is offshore, i.e. the production of wind energy on the open sea, coupled with the production of hydrogen. A challenge, because the technology does not like to be constantly operated at its limits, according to Schattauer.
According to Conjuncta, the long-term target is up to 10 gigawatts of electrolysis capacity. As far as the German project is concerned, two steps are currently underway in parallel: The Mauritanian government, which has signed memoranda of understanding with three other international consortia, is examining the legal and infrastructural requirements. Conjuncta is conducting its own feasibility study on financing, technology, locations and connection infrastructure.
There is plenty of space for the construction of wind and solar power plants. Mauritania spans a little over one million square kilometers, making it about three times the size of Germany. And it has about one-twentieth the size of Germany’s population: 4.2 million inhabitants.
Mauritanian Energy Minister Nani Ould Chrougha expressed confidence in an interview with Table.Media: “We believe that it will not only change our country, but that we can also contribute to the global paradigm shift in energy.” In any case, the mindset for the necessary change in energy policy is very strong in Mauritania. He says his country is feeling climate change more profoundly than the Global North, for example through the changes in the rainy season.
Energy Minister Chrougha, who only took over the post from current Economy Minister Abdessalam Ould Mohamed Saleh in July, shows realism and optimism: “It is true that we have no funds on the ground and no technologies. But what we do have is great potential.”
Fraunhofer researcher Schattauer believes that the German consortium’s plans for building around 400 megawatts of electrolysis capacity in Mauritania by 2028 are entirely realistic, assuming that no bureaucratic hurdles slow down the process. However, there is one thing that should not be forgotten in the long term: “The production of green hydrogen requires a functioning power grid. If no one makes that investment, it cannot work.” From a political perspective, this is where the win-win situation lies for Mauritania as one of the poorest countries in the world, hoping for a development leap.
The US government approved 1.2 billion US dollars in grants for two projects to extract carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air (Direct Air Capture – DAC). An Occidental Petroleum subsidiary and a consortium of Climeworks, Battelle and Heirloom Carbon Technologies will receive the grants to advance DAC technology and build two commercial DAC plants. The funds will come from a 3.5 billion US dollar fund to develop DAC technology.
The two projects are expected to remove a combined total of more than two million metric tons of CO2 from the atmosphere annually. However, company managers expect the DAC plants will not reach this target before 2030. By comparison, US emissions are around five billion metric tons. The world’s largest DAC plant operated by Climeworks in Iceland only removes 4,000 metric tons of CO2 annually.
Like other carbon capture technologies (CCS), DAC technology is still under development. According to Bloomberg, a total of 18 DAC plants exist worldwide. IEA data shows that numerous CCS projects are planned, which would multiply the capacity to capture CO2. However, it is questionable whether all projects will be realized, due to their high cost. US subsidies for developing CCS and DAC technologies could make the technology globally more competitive and costs could fall. nib
Many innovations in the field of photovoltaics (PV) were originally made by German or European research institutions. However, over the past decades, the mass production of solar modules has shifted almost entirely to Asia, especially China, partly because governments there have massively promoted these production plants. But can we really do without our own solar industry? Should we in Europe limit ourselves to researching and perhaps developing prototypes that are then produced elsewhere? I am convinced that this would be fatal. Not only because it creates dependencies, but also because the absence of relevant industrial plants significantly reduces our innovative power.
Even when a technology is production-ready and already in mass production, it is constantly being improved – often in very small, incremental steps. These improvements can only succeed in close contact with production practice, where data and observations are accumulated and evaluated for this purpose. In contrast, in the laboratories of a research institution, experts work with much smaller solar cells and other processes, which means that they simply cannot recognize optimization potential in the process flow of mass production.
It is, therefore, a fact that the best silicon solar cells today do not come from the laboratories of research institutions, but from well-known companies that have perfected silicon technologies in all their variants. This applies to all technologies with a high technology readiness level (TRL). This does not yet apply to developments with a low TRL, such as tandem solar cells: Here, research institutions are scoring points with new materials, structures and processes with which they can achieve new efficiency records. However, such promising concepts must then be transferred from research to application – and quickly. Trust-based collaborations with companies with experience in mass production with state-of-the-art equipment are crucial to rapid technology transfer.
So for leadership in technology and an innovative, strong economy, we need both: Research in the laboratory, which drives new ideas, and R&D in companies – that’s the only way to create a powerful innovation chain overall.
Currently, almost 90 percent of solar modules come from China. For some time now, however, the United States and India have also been actively building up their own PV companies, supporting them financially and protecting them from competition with tariffs. This is because the PV industry holds a strategically decisive position for the future viability of a society. Not only China has recognized this, but also the USA and India: A strong PV industry reduces dependence on fossil imports and facilitates climate action at the lowest electricity prices. Thanks to significant advances in research, a kilowatt hour of solar power today is the cheapest compared to other energy sources. A powerful and innovative PV industry provides strong, positive economic momentum. We should not forgo this economic engine in Germany and Europe.
Rutger Schlatmann is Chair of the European Technology and Innovation Platform for Photovoltaics (ETIP PV), which advises on energy policy issues and the expansion of photovoltaics in Europe. At Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin, Schlatmann heads the Solar Energy division. Together with nearly 50 world-renowned experts, the physicist recently published an appeal in the journal Science calling for the rapid expansion of photovoltaics.
Rarely have technical details such as the flap behavior on an aircraft wing led to such big debates as in the last few days. Germany talked about how and why Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had to cancel her planned trip to Oceania in Abu Dhabi. And even more so among us fellow passengers on board the German Air Force plane when it did not take off again. What has been forgotten here: What impact does this failure actually have on German foreign and climate policy? Since Oceania was supposed to set the course for Germany’s new foreign climate policy, we now provide this information here.
Nine hours away by plane, the largest investment program in the developed world is celebrating its anniversary: One year after its adoption, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is generating billions and billions of green investments and advancing climate action. Nico Beckert has investigated where and how successful it has been so far. And we also take a second close look at South America: There, the rainforest states have recently decided to protect the Amazon forest. Alexandra Endres found out why this is so difficult and what criminal organizations are preventing it.
We will stay on the ground for the time being and hope you enjoy reading.
When the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) went into effect a year ago, there was a lot of excitement. The subsidy program for the establishment of green industries, initially budgeted at 369 billion dollars, put European manufacturers at a disadvantage and could lead to a trade war and a race for government subsidies, according to fears.
One year after enactment, a mixed IRA record emerges:
However, there are also doubts about these figures, most of which come from climate advocacy groups. “In some cases, investment projects were simply announced again after the IRA went into effect. Some of the investments would probably have been realized even without IRA funding“, Niclas Poitiers, Research Fellow at the think tank Bruegel, tells Table.Media.
Considering the size of the US economy, 170,000 jobs is not much, he says. In some areas, “billions in subsidies are flowing, but very few jobs are being created”. The Bruegel researcher warns of an international subsidy race “at the end of which billions could end up with large companies, but hardly any positive effects are achieved in terms of jobs and really new investments”.
There is more agreement on the climate impacts of the IRA. According to a Science paper, the IRA would contribute to a 43 to 48 percent reduction in emissions in 2035 compared to the 2005 baseline. Without IRA measures, emissions would fall by only 27 to 35 percent. The study is based on nine calculations and shows quite clearly the climate benefits of the subsidy program. Through reduced costs for green technologies, the IRA will also have positive climate impacts in other states, according to Bruegel.
However, a lack of investment in the partly ailing power grid could diminish the impact of the IRA. If the US does not expand energy transmission capacity twice as fast as it has in the past decade, a good half of the IRA’s climate effect could be wiped out, a Princeton University study shows. Meeting US climate goals will require “robust regulations and additional action at the federal and state levels“, according to Jesse Jenkins, an IRA expert at Princeton University. He cites, for example, an earlier coal phase-out and better regulations in the agriculture and forestry sectors. The think tank BloombergNEF had recently cited a CO2 price as an additional measure to complement the IRA.
Poitiers of Bruegel believes more focused subsidies make more sense than the IRA’s watering-can approach: “Building up a Western solar industry doesn’t necessarily result in even one more solar panel being made if it’s just shifting production.” Poitiers instead suggests government investment in infrastructure, such as EV charging stations, or in decarbonizing the steel and cement industries or socially offsetting climate costs.
Nils Redeker, Vice Director of the Jacques Delors Centre for European Policy, tells Table.Media that he also sees a need for more targeted subsidies. The US lags behind China and Europe in the production of green technologies, he said. Redeker also rejects the IRA’s watering-can approach: “For new technologies such as hydrogen or advanced batteries, such subsidies can help build competitive industries. In the case of established mass-produced products such as solar cells, however, the US will hardly be able to catch up with Asian manufacturers.”
He advises Europe not to copy the IRA directly but to “focus on promoting sectors where you already have a foot in the door or where there is still technological development potential”. The next EU Commission must find a better answer to the industrial policy challenge, he said. “In the medium term, we cannot solve the problem through national subsidies alone. To protect the internal market from economic divergence and unfair competition, we need coordination and funding at EU level.” This is a tall order, he said, but one that the EU will definitely have to manage.
Meanwhile, how high the cost of the IRA will be in the coming years is still unclear. In fact, analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs estimate that companies could claim as much as 1.2 trillion dollars in IRA tax benefits and subsidies over the next decade, allowing them to make up to 2.9 trillion dollars in investments. A Brookings study reached similar conclusions. Despite these high costs, the IRA “could be a cost-effective incentive for reducing carbon emissions”, according to the authors. IRA incentives are likely to cost less than 100 dollars per ton of CO2 saved, which is lower than estimated greenhouse gas damages, which range from 100 dollars to 380 dollars per ton, they said.
The failed visit of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to Oceania also has consequences for German and international climate policy. Beyond the political embarrassments and technical mishaps, the Foreign Minister’s cancelation also slows down and prevents numerous developments and projects key to international climate action at the Federal Foreign Office.
In Australia, on the one hand, Baerbock wanted to highlight the good cooperation: Germany could learn a lot from Australia regarding protection against cyberattacks and wanted to thank it for supporting Ukraine. She also planned to visit the National Emergency Management Agency, which was established a year ago after the experience with the catastrophic forest fires of 2019/20. The delegation also planned to talk to representatives from the Australian economy about green hydrogen, among other things.
At the same time, however, the Foreign Minister would have been able to urge Australia to show more ambition in climate policy during the internal talks: The new Labor government under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and individual states, in particular, have changed the extremely climate-hostile course of their predecessors. They invest massively in renewables and discuss a CO2 tariff (CBAM) based on the EU model.
Despite this, the Australian government continues to support many new oil and gas projects with government funds and aims to expand gas production. According to the think tank Climate Action Tracker, the climate course of the new government is still far from what would be necessary for 1.5 degrees. Their verdict: insufficient.
With Australia considering hosting COP31 in 2026, the German delegation wanted to call for more ambitious climate action. After all, Australia is the only developed country considered a deforestation hotspot. It has the eighth-highest carbon emissions per capita globally and the highest carbon emissions from coal use globally. Since 2019, the country has also refused to contribute to international climate financing in the UN’s Green Climate Fund – a constant source of criticism against the developed countries at climate conferences in the debate on financial matters.
Nor will a meeting of NGO delegates on climate take place: Baerbock’s delegation also included the head of the Climate Action Network Europe and the head of the European Environmental Bureau from Brussels, Chiara Martinelli and Patrick ten Brink. They had intended to sit down with Australian NGOs for joint strategic planning.
The trip’s cancellation also shelves German plans to play a more prominent role in the Indo-Pacific, not only in geopolitics, but also climate policy. The itinerary envisaged Baerbock inaugurating a new German embassy in Suva, the capital of the island republic of Fiji. The German special ambassador for the Pacific island states, Beate Greski, who currently resides in Canberra, is supposed to push these plans forward.
In times of tight budgets, the new embassy is a strategic investment by the top of the Foreign Office. Its purpose is to demonstrate Germany’s commitment to Fiji, an island state particularly vulnerable to climate change and host of the COP23 climate conference in Bonn 2017. The country is an important partner in the group of “small island states” at the UN negotiations. Baerbock had already visited the Pacific island state of Palau last year. Its government was open to possible financial aid, but blocked the expansion of renewables due to unclear internal and economic interdependencies. Now the German choice for a position fell on Fiji.
The new embassy is also meant to show how climate foreign policy is changing the organization of the Foreign Service – among other things, by ensuring that all key embassies closely monitor and support the climate policies of their host countries. The Foreign Office leadership has identified about 50 missions worldwide as climate focus embassies: The embassies in the G20 countries, the V20 countries (the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change) and other key countries. The Foreign Office is currently coordinating a new “Foreign Climate Policy Strategy” in the government.
The technical problem with the government plane could also affect the upcoming COP28 in Dubai: The German Foreign Minister used important political capital to get help from the UAE in case of an emergency. She also spoke with the country’s foreign minister during her first unplanned extended stay. However, Germany actually wants to press the hosts of the next climate COP in December to step up efforts and demand progress on climate and human rights issues.
At the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, for instance, the differences between Baerbock and the UAE Industry Minister and head of the oil and gas company Adnoc, Sultan Al Jaber, became apparent. While Germany is pushing for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels as soon as possible, oil and gas countries like the UAE only want to talk about phasing out “unabated” carbon emissions. A massive expansion of the controversial CCUS technology would accompany this. Baerbock’s current “debt of gratitude” to the Arab country will not make a tough confrontation on this issue any easier now.
Last week’s summit in Belém brought – apart from the founding of an international anti-deforestation alliance – progress about which little has been reported so far: In their final declaration, the eight Amazon states agreed to take joint action against organized crime across national borders in the future. The illegal activities of the mafia are a major driver of environmental destruction in the Amazon, but the issue has played virtually no role in the international forest conservation debate. Experts now see the fact that the Amazon Summit dealt with the issue at all as progress.
María Fernanda Ramírez, an expert on environmental crimes at Insight Crime, a US and Colombia-based think tank specializing in security issues, told Table.Media that the meeting set “a vital regional precedent in the battle against environmental crimes.” Nevertheless, the summit’s final declaration “falls short in addressing the specific targets required to curb deforestation,” she criticizes. It lacks a “comprehensive strategy to combat organized crime” in the Amazon region.
In this context, Ramírez also quotes Gustavo Faleiros, Director of Environmental Research at the Pulitzer Center: “Countries still see [armed groups] as an internal issue and not really connected with the overall agenda of conservation and reduction of emissions.” As the online medium InfoAmazonía reports, armed gangs are active in around 70 percent of municipal districts between Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela and run their businesses across state borders.
Obviously, it is impossible to accurately measure the extent of the damage caused by organized crime to the rainforest. But Ruth Nogueron, forest expert at the World Resources Institute (WRI), replied to a question from Table.Media: “Along increased deforestation, we are seeing an increasing and widespread illegality and violence in the Amazon Basin.” And the UN World Drug Report sees “narco-deforestation” as a “growing threat” to the Amazon.
The destruction of the forest is accelerated by organized crime, writes Robert Muggah, founder of the Brazilian Igarapé Institute, which works on climate and security issues, in Foreign Policy. The mafia is diversifying its business beyond drug trafficking, creating an “ecosystem of crime.” A report prepared by the Igarapé Institute in cooperation with Insight Crime describes it in particular detail.
The Amazon states want to take more decisive action against this in the future. Among other things, they plan to:
But how exactly the plans will be implemented remains unclear. According to WRI forest expert Ruth Nogueron, it is now important:
The WRI expert also advocates for environmental authorities to be supported by customs, the military and other security agencies in the fight against organized crime.
But Bram Ebus, who analyzes the transnational security problems and resource conflicts in the region for the Crisis Group in Bogotá, sees precisely this as a risk. Although the planned cooperation on security issues is of “utmost importance,” it harbors risks. Especially when armed groups are to work together “that have already been tarnished by abuses of power and human rights violations.” For this reason, he considers it indispensable to obtain the consent of the people of the Amazon and to actively involve non-military state agencies in the cooperation.
In addition, the geopolitical climate in Latin America can change quickly, writes Ebus. Brazil and Colombia are currently “led by progressive presidents who prioritize environmental protection and the Amazon.” This opened “a narrow window of opportunity” for “a robust Amazon agenda.” But no one knows when the window will close again. Therefore, Ebus says, “prompt presentation of tangible proposals that can garner support from the international community, particularly in terms of financial backing,” must be put forward without delay.
The eight Amazon countries that jointly signed the Belém Declaration also call on the developed countries to financially support the conservation of the Amazon rainforest. The issue is thus likely to become important at COP28.
Germany’s Social Democratic Development Minister Svenja Schulze visited Mauritania on Monday and Tuesday. After the military coups in Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, the country is considered one of the few remaining stable countries in the region and Europe’s main and last partner in the Sahel. Since July, Schulze has chaired the Sahel Alliance, an international donor alliance. Commenting on her visit, the Development Minister said: “Germany is not involved in the Sahel because it would be easy. We are so committed precisely because the situation is difficult and fragile.” One goal of Germany’s commitment is to create economic prospects for the region. One way to do this is by building a hydrogen economy.
“Mauritania is one of the world’s best hydrogen locations,” Stefan Liebing, CEO of Conjuncta, told Table Media. There is inexpensive electricity around the clock – from the sun during the day and from the wind at night. In addition, the location on the Atlantic gives access to water and a port infrastructure is available. According to Liebing, these are prerequisites determining the economic viability of a project.
There is still no sign of green hydrogen on the ground in Mauritania, because to date there has only been a memorandum of understanding between the consortium with German participation and the Mauritanian government for the 34 billion US dollar project. In 2028, the German consultancy Conjuncta is supposed to get started: With a 400-megawatt plant for the production of green hydrogen, northeast of the capital Nouakchott. To this end, the Hamburg-based company has teamed up with the joint venture Infinity Power. The company is backed by the Egyptian green power producer Infinity and a state-owned company for renewables, Masdar from the Gulf emirate of Abu Dhabi. The eco-friendly electricity for electrolysis will be supplied by wind turbines and photovoltaic plants in Mauritania, and the energy will be exported via a port.
“The technologies for generating green hydrogen are there,” says Sylvia Schattauer, Director of the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy Systems since 2022, in an interview with Table Media. But: “Now it’s about scaling up. The systems and components have been manufactured so far and are now to be mass-produced in large quantities.” For her, this is comparable to the transition from assembling a car by hand to production on an assembly line. “It’s about optimization. This is not a question of basic research, but an engineering task.”
The idea of the consortium with German participation is to initially connect several small modular plants in Mauritania in order to reach the targeted 400-megawatt electrolysis capacity in 2028. According to Schattauer, one of the areas for application-oriented research is offshore, i.e. the production of wind energy on the open sea, coupled with the production of hydrogen. A challenge, because the technology does not like to be constantly operated at its limits, according to Schattauer.
According to Conjuncta, the long-term target is up to 10 gigawatts of electrolysis capacity. As far as the German project is concerned, two steps are currently underway in parallel: The Mauritanian government, which has signed memoranda of understanding with three other international consortia, is examining the legal and infrastructural requirements. Conjuncta is conducting its own feasibility study on financing, technology, locations and connection infrastructure.
There is plenty of space for the construction of wind and solar power plants. Mauritania spans a little over one million square kilometers, making it about three times the size of Germany. And it has about one-twentieth the size of Germany’s population: 4.2 million inhabitants.
Mauritanian Energy Minister Nani Ould Chrougha expressed confidence in an interview with Table.Media: “We believe that it will not only change our country, but that we can also contribute to the global paradigm shift in energy.” In any case, the mindset for the necessary change in energy policy is very strong in Mauritania. He says his country is feeling climate change more profoundly than the Global North, for example through the changes in the rainy season.
Energy Minister Chrougha, who only took over the post from current Economy Minister Abdessalam Ould Mohamed Saleh in July, shows realism and optimism: “It is true that we have no funds on the ground and no technologies. But what we do have is great potential.”
Fraunhofer researcher Schattauer believes that the German consortium’s plans for building around 400 megawatts of electrolysis capacity in Mauritania by 2028 are entirely realistic, assuming that no bureaucratic hurdles slow down the process. However, there is one thing that should not be forgotten in the long term: “The production of green hydrogen requires a functioning power grid. If no one makes that investment, it cannot work.” From a political perspective, this is where the win-win situation lies for Mauritania as one of the poorest countries in the world, hoping for a development leap.
The US government approved 1.2 billion US dollars in grants for two projects to extract carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air (Direct Air Capture – DAC). An Occidental Petroleum subsidiary and a consortium of Climeworks, Battelle and Heirloom Carbon Technologies will receive the grants to advance DAC technology and build two commercial DAC plants. The funds will come from a 3.5 billion US dollar fund to develop DAC technology.
The two projects are expected to remove a combined total of more than two million metric tons of CO2 from the atmosphere annually. However, company managers expect the DAC plants will not reach this target before 2030. By comparison, US emissions are around five billion metric tons. The world’s largest DAC plant operated by Climeworks in Iceland only removes 4,000 metric tons of CO2 annually.
Like other carbon capture technologies (CCS), DAC technology is still under development. According to Bloomberg, a total of 18 DAC plants exist worldwide. IEA data shows that numerous CCS projects are planned, which would multiply the capacity to capture CO2. However, it is questionable whether all projects will be realized, due to their high cost. US subsidies for developing CCS and DAC technologies could make the technology globally more competitive and costs could fall. nib
Many innovations in the field of photovoltaics (PV) were originally made by German or European research institutions. However, over the past decades, the mass production of solar modules has shifted almost entirely to Asia, especially China, partly because governments there have massively promoted these production plants. But can we really do without our own solar industry? Should we in Europe limit ourselves to researching and perhaps developing prototypes that are then produced elsewhere? I am convinced that this would be fatal. Not only because it creates dependencies, but also because the absence of relevant industrial plants significantly reduces our innovative power.
Even when a technology is production-ready and already in mass production, it is constantly being improved – often in very small, incremental steps. These improvements can only succeed in close contact with production practice, where data and observations are accumulated and evaluated for this purpose. In contrast, in the laboratories of a research institution, experts work with much smaller solar cells and other processes, which means that they simply cannot recognize optimization potential in the process flow of mass production.
It is, therefore, a fact that the best silicon solar cells today do not come from the laboratories of research institutions, but from well-known companies that have perfected silicon technologies in all their variants. This applies to all technologies with a high technology readiness level (TRL). This does not yet apply to developments with a low TRL, such as tandem solar cells: Here, research institutions are scoring points with new materials, structures and processes with which they can achieve new efficiency records. However, such promising concepts must then be transferred from research to application – and quickly. Trust-based collaborations with companies with experience in mass production with state-of-the-art equipment are crucial to rapid technology transfer.
So for leadership in technology and an innovative, strong economy, we need both: Research in the laboratory, which drives new ideas, and R&D in companies – that’s the only way to create a powerful innovation chain overall.
Currently, almost 90 percent of solar modules come from China. For some time now, however, the United States and India have also been actively building up their own PV companies, supporting them financially and protecting them from competition with tariffs. This is because the PV industry holds a strategically decisive position for the future viability of a society. Not only China has recognized this, but also the USA and India: A strong PV industry reduces dependence on fossil imports and facilitates climate action at the lowest electricity prices. Thanks to significant advances in research, a kilowatt hour of solar power today is the cheapest compared to other energy sources. A powerful and innovative PV industry provides strong, positive economic momentum. We should not forgo this economic engine in Germany and Europe.
Rutger Schlatmann is Chair of the European Technology and Innovation Platform for Photovoltaics (ETIP PV), which advises on energy policy issues and the expansion of photovoltaics in Europe. At Helmholtz-Zentrum Berlin, Schlatmann heads the Solar Energy division. Together with nearly 50 world-renowned experts, the physicist recently published an appeal in the journal Science calling for the rapid expansion of photovoltaics.
