The climate conference in Dubai could not have got off to a much better start. At the very beginning, the delegates agreed on the structure of the loss and damage fund. This is a huge success for COP President Al Jaber after being criticized recently because the UAE allegedly wanted to strike oil and gas deals at the climate conference.
The United Arab Emirates itself wants to contribute 100 million dollars to the loss and damage fund. This has symbolic power. Under the traditional UNFCCC classification, the UAE is not a developed country and is thus not obliged to contribute to international climate financing. Will this be the first domino to fall and will other wealthy non-developed countries such as China, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Singapore now also participate in climate financing? Bernhard Pötter has summarized the details of the loss and damage breakthrough.
And there has been a second success: On the very first day in Dubai, the countries managed to agree on a conference agenda – meaning there won’t be any lengthy disputes over the agenda. This is a good start for the climate conference.
Another important COP player is China. The world’s biggest polluter is investing massively in the development of green value chains. However, according to Nico Beckert, this is nowhere near enough to achieve the long-term climate targets.
In addition, we provide you with interesting events and dates every day of the climate conference. For an overview of all our COP28 coverage, please visit our website.
Stay positive!
The COP28 presidency kicked off the first day of the conference with a strategically important double success. In a surprise move, the opening plenary session on Thursday afternoon adopted the long-disputed details for the loss and damage fund (LDF) and the conference agenda. At the same time, several countries, led by the UAE and Germany, declared their willingness to fill the LDF with a total of around 400 million dollars.
The “bang,” as David Ryfisch from the development organization Germanwatch called the early result, gives the often bitter and frustrating conference process a positive tone for now. This means that the strategy of the team headed by the COP’s chief organizer, Sultan Al Jaber, who was officially elected president of the conference yesterday, has been a success so far:
The first rumors about the Presidency’s “double whammy” had already been circulating the day before. Participants reported that the decision on the loss and damage fund and its financing, in particular, had only been made on the evening before and the morning of the conference. “A lot of phone calls were made before everything was clear,” they said. The deal was also paved by the visit of State Secretary for Development Jochen Flasbarth to Abu Dhabi in October.
In the process, according to the delegation, it became clear from the outset that Germany and the UAE were both very interested in good news. The UAE was keen to get its prestigious conference off to a positive start. With almost 100,000 participants, it is set to be the largest climate COP ever. Germany had a strong interest in the UAE, which is not considered a developed country according to UN criteria, becoming the first country in the history of the UN Climate Convention to contribute to a UN climate finance pot. Until now, it was strictly assumed that this was the exclusive responsibility of developed countries.
This is why the first plenary session of COP28 also became a small donor round for the LDF. The fund, which will be managed by the World Bank, requires at least 200 million dollars as start-up capital. By Thursday evening, the following pledges had been made:
In parallel, the COP plenary also adopted the agenda of the meeting. What sounds unremarkable is actually a significant step forward. Many conferences in the past had been paralyzed by days-long “agenda fights” at which individual agenda items were so hotly debated that progress was prevented elsewhere. As recently as June, the SBSTA58 interim conference in Bonn spent practically the entire time negotiating without a proper agenda.
The start of COP28 also saw a number of controversial motions, particularly from developing countries, which demanded individual new agenda items: Faster carbon reduction, the responsibilities of developed countries, adaptation or financing. COP President Al Jaber “solved” the problem by assuring them that their concerns would be discussed under existing agenda items or by forming their own negotiating groups. However, this only delays the problems. Because there will probably only be one big, all-encompassing COP decision at the end of the conference – on the Global Stocktake – these issues will then resurface there. And they could dilute or jeopardize a large, comprehensive COP declaration.
Veteran negotiators fear that early success could backfire in other ways: If the Presidency rests on its laurels. Al Jaber has scored a significant victory with the implementation of the LDF, especially for the newly industrialized and developing countries. But the issues of phasing out fossil fuels, expanding renewables and a new global financial order are far more controversial. If Al Jaber’s team does not commit as much political capital to these issues, they could end up as non-binding declarations and promises. Germany’s State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action, Jennifer Morgan, who has intensively campaigned for the LDF both in front of and behind the scenes, once again called yesterday for “decisions, not declarations” on these issues at the conclusion of the COP.
In any case, the COP’s quick decision on the LDF and its financing will put pressure on the heads of state and government arriving in Dubai on Friday and Saturday. At the Climate Action Summit, they will each have three minutes to present themselves as climate champions. The COP Presidency and the climate action community see this as the perfect opportunity to put money on the table for the LDF.
Click here for all previously published articles on COP28.
China will most likely reach its emissions peak sooner than planned. Some forecasts suggest that the world’s biggest polluter will exceed its carbon dioxide emissions peak as early as this year. However, if the internationally agreed 1.5 or 2-degree target is to be achieved, emissions would have to fall very quickly after. But this presents the country with significant challenges.
The People’s Republic is systematically laying the foundations for a new growth model. While the infrastructure and construction boom was the biggest growth driver for a long time, Beijing now focuses on green technologies. “China’s economic growth model shifted with real estate construction plummeting and clean energy manufacturing and deployment becoming a key economic driver,” the study’s authors say. Almost a quarter of all investments were made by manufacturers and installers of EVs, solar and wind power systems, battery storage systems and other green technologies. Without this sector, China would not have seen any growth in investment at all.
The industrial policy goal of “becoming the technology and market leader in the core technologies of the 21st century” has once again amplified China’s renewables boom in 2023. More than 200 gigawatts of new solar energy capacity will be installed this year. In the previous record year of 2022, it was 87 GW. In 2023, electricity generation from renewable sources grew faster than electricity demand for the first time. If growth is maintained, renewables could force coal and gas out of the grids in the coming years, reducing emissions from the electricity sector.
However, even this unprecedented expansion of renewables may not be enough to reduce emissions fast enough. After all, renewables not only have to push the currently dominant coal-fired electricity out of the grid. They also have to cover the growing electricity demand resulting from the electrification of industry, transport and the heating sector. A scenario by Tsinghua University shows just how great the challenge is. It predicts that between 2020 and 2050, electricity demand will almost double to 14,270 terawatt hours.
As positive as the investments in green technologies are: China’s economy continues to rely too heavily on fossil-based industries. The study authors emphasize that demand for steel and cement has fallen in recent years. Emissions from the cement sector have even fallen so much that they are on a 1.5-degree-compatible path. Direct coal consumption in the industrial sector has also fallen “fairly quickly.”
However, energy demand has recently increased in the iron, steel, and (petro)chemical sectors. And some of this demand is still being met directly by industrial coal-fired power plants. In short, while the industry no longer consumes as much coal directly, it remains too high due to higher electricity demand.
Overall, China has made progress with regard to its economy’s energy intensity. Compared to 2012, energy consumption in 2021 was down by around 26 percent for the same economic output. Beijing has committed itself to this goal under the Paris Agreement. According to study co-author Lauri Myllyvirta, the potential of technical energy efficiency in the industrial sector has largely been exhausted. The goal of reducing the carbon intensity of growth is also likely to be missed.
Overall, China has made progress in terms of the energy intensity of its economy. Compared to 2012, a good 26% less energy had to be used in 2021 to achieve the same economic output. But that is not enough: China is in danger of missing its target of reducing energy intensity by a further 13.5% between 2020 and 2025. Beijing has committed to this target as part of the Paris Agreement. Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA analyst and co-author of the study, said: “The potential for technical energy efficiency in industry has largely been exhausted”. The goal of reducing the CO₂ intensity of growth is also likely to be missed. According to the authors of the study, energy consumption is still too high in almost all sectors.
Like renewables, EVs have also seen tremendous growth. The share of EVs in total production has increased from 5 percent in 2019 to 30 percent between September 2022 and August 2023. As a result, EVs are contributing to achieving the 1.5-degree target, as the authors of the study note.
However, the transport sector as a whole still consumes too much oil. Despite the nationwide lockdowns during the coronavirus pandemic, the sector’s oil consumption has continued to rise on average over the past five years. The authors warn that freight transport, in particular, needs to be decarbonized faster. But electrification of freight transport is still “in its infancy.”
There are some positive developments in the building sector, but the general trend is still pointing in the wrong direction. Much less coal has been used for heating in recent years, which has reduced direct emissions from the building sector. However, indirect emissions – from electric heating and the increased use of air conditioning during summer heatwaves – have risen sharply. In addition, the energy efficiency of existing buildings needs to be improved, which is “challenging,” emphasizes Myllyvirta.
Following its rapid rise to economic superpower status, China is in the midst of a major transformation. In order to meet national and global climate targets, the growth of the heavy industry and construction industry, which are based on cheap coal, must be replaced by a green economy. The key question for success will be whether more renewables can be added to the grid quickly enough and whether coal can be pushed back faster.
But accomplishing this mammoth task will not be enough. As more and more sectors are electrified and electricity demand massively increases, the economy’s energy efficiency must continue to improve. In the short term, China’s emissions appear on the right track with the predicted peak. However, more efforts are needed to achieve the national and global climate targets.
In June 2023, Saber Hossain Chowdhury was appointed Bangladesh’s Special Envoy on Climate Change. It is the pinnacle of a political career. The 62-year-old has long campaigned for social justice and was even arrested and tortured for it.
Chowdhury’s new role comes at a critical time for climate-vulnerable nations like Bangladesh, where tens of millions of lives are at risk from worsening sea level rise, cyclones, and flooding and communities need money to recover from climate impacts they haven’t caused.
He is considered a champion of a loss and damage fund to mobilize more funding for countries particularly vulnerable to the climate crisis. Representatives of developing countries say that Chowdhury speaks for weak countries on this issue and demands that wealthier countries put money on the table. At a ministerial pre-COP meeting in Abu Dhabi, the envoy co-chaired a roundtable discussion on loss and damage finance.
The climate negotiators had agreed on a framework for the functioning of the new fund before the climate conference. On the first day of COP28, the proposals for operationalizing the fund were adopted rather surprisingly. The first countries have pledged millions to the fund. This is also a success for Chowdhury. But the fight is far from over. The initial pledges are nowhere near enough to cope with the immense losses and damage caused by the climate crisis.
Described as a softly-spoken but sharp and eloquent diplomat, Chowdhury is a good candidate to drive the fund forward. He could become a bridge builder, restoring the eroded trust between rich and poorer countries and providing more funding.
A former President of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, an organization of national parliaments, Chowdhury has extensive experience building coalitions of lawmakers to advance global issues.
His insider knowledge of climate diplomacy circles is a major advantage. As chair of Bangladesh’s parliamentary committee on climate change, Chowdhury has attended UN climate talks since 2009. He was a spokesperson for least developed country ministers at COP27, pushing loss and damage front and center despite not being a minister himself.
This battle is also a personal matter for him. His birth town of Chittagong, Bangladesh’s largest port city, is highly vulnerable to flooding.
Before working in the family’s shipping and trading business, Chowdhury studied law, politics, and economics in the UK. Aged 35 in 1996, he jumped full-time into politics and rose to deputy minister roles. A passionate cricket fan, he became President of the Bangladesh Cricket Board.
But his commitment to politics remained resolute despite being arrested and tortured in 2003 in what Amnesty International described as part of a pattern of “politically-motivated detentions.” Representing a constituency in the capital, Dhaka, he campaigned for the criminalization of custodial torture, tobacco control, and women empowerment.
In 2019, he successfully led parliament to declare climate change “a planetary emergency.” Now, his role is to “inject urgency into the international negotiations,” he said recently. The goal: “Protecting the lives and livelihoods of climate-vulnerable people.” Chloé Farand
The climate conference in Dubai could not have got off to a much better start. At the very beginning, the delegates agreed on the structure of the loss and damage fund. This is a huge success for COP President Al Jaber after being criticized recently because the UAE allegedly wanted to strike oil and gas deals at the climate conference.
The United Arab Emirates itself wants to contribute 100 million dollars to the loss and damage fund. This has symbolic power. Under the traditional UNFCCC classification, the UAE is not a developed country and is thus not obliged to contribute to international climate financing. Will this be the first domino to fall and will other wealthy non-developed countries such as China, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Singapore now also participate in climate financing? Bernhard Pötter has summarized the details of the loss and damage breakthrough.
And there has been a second success: On the very first day in Dubai, the countries managed to agree on a conference agenda – meaning there won’t be any lengthy disputes over the agenda. This is a good start for the climate conference.
Another important COP player is China. The world’s biggest polluter is investing massively in the development of green value chains. However, according to Nico Beckert, this is nowhere near enough to achieve the long-term climate targets.
In addition, we provide you with interesting events and dates every day of the climate conference. For an overview of all our COP28 coverage, please visit our website.
Stay positive!
The COP28 presidency kicked off the first day of the conference with a strategically important double success. In a surprise move, the opening plenary session on Thursday afternoon adopted the long-disputed details for the loss and damage fund (LDF) and the conference agenda. At the same time, several countries, led by the UAE and Germany, declared their willingness to fill the LDF with a total of around 400 million dollars.
The “bang,” as David Ryfisch from the development organization Germanwatch called the early result, gives the often bitter and frustrating conference process a positive tone for now. This means that the strategy of the team headed by the COP’s chief organizer, Sultan Al Jaber, who was officially elected president of the conference yesterday, has been a success so far:
The first rumors about the Presidency’s “double whammy” had already been circulating the day before. Participants reported that the decision on the loss and damage fund and its financing, in particular, had only been made on the evening before and the morning of the conference. “A lot of phone calls were made before everything was clear,” they said. The deal was also paved by the visit of State Secretary for Development Jochen Flasbarth to Abu Dhabi in October.
In the process, according to the delegation, it became clear from the outset that Germany and the UAE were both very interested in good news. The UAE was keen to get its prestigious conference off to a positive start. With almost 100,000 participants, it is set to be the largest climate COP ever. Germany had a strong interest in the UAE, which is not considered a developed country according to UN criteria, becoming the first country in the history of the UN Climate Convention to contribute to a UN climate finance pot. Until now, it was strictly assumed that this was the exclusive responsibility of developed countries.
This is why the first plenary session of COP28 also became a small donor round for the LDF. The fund, which will be managed by the World Bank, requires at least 200 million dollars as start-up capital. By Thursday evening, the following pledges had been made:
In parallel, the COP plenary also adopted the agenda of the meeting. What sounds unremarkable is actually a significant step forward. Many conferences in the past had been paralyzed by days-long “agenda fights” at which individual agenda items were so hotly debated that progress was prevented elsewhere. As recently as June, the SBSTA58 interim conference in Bonn spent practically the entire time negotiating without a proper agenda.
The start of COP28 also saw a number of controversial motions, particularly from developing countries, which demanded individual new agenda items: Faster carbon reduction, the responsibilities of developed countries, adaptation or financing. COP President Al Jaber “solved” the problem by assuring them that their concerns would be discussed under existing agenda items or by forming their own negotiating groups. However, this only delays the problems. Because there will probably only be one big, all-encompassing COP decision at the end of the conference – on the Global Stocktake – these issues will then resurface there. And they could dilute or jeopardize a large, comprehensive COP declaration.
Veteran negotiators fear that early success could backfire in other ways: If the Presidency rests on its laurels. Al Jaber has scored a significant victory with the implementation of the LDF, especially for the newly industrialized and developing countries. But the issues of phasing out fossil fuels, expanding renewables and a new global financial order are far more controversial. If Al Jaber’s team does not commit as much political capital to these issues, they could end up as non-binding declarations and promises. Germany’s State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action, Jennifer Morgan, who has intensively campaigned for the LDF both in front of and behind the scenes, once again called yesterday for “decisions, not declarations” on these issues at the conclusion of the COP.
In any case, the COP’s quick decision on the LDF and its financing will put pressure on the heads of state and government arriving in Dubai on Friday and Saturday. At the Climate Action Summit, they will each have three minutes to present themselves as climate champions. The COP Presidency and the climate action community see this as the perfect opportunity to put money on the table for the LDF.
Click here for all previously published articles on COP28.
China will most likely reach its emissions peak sooner than planned. Some forecasts suggest that the world’s biggest polluter will exceed its carbon dioxide emissions peak as early as this year. However, if the internationally agreed 1.5 or 2-degree target is to be achieved, emissions would have to fall very quickly after. But this presents the country with significant challenges.
The People’s Republic is systematically laying the foundations for a new growth model. While the infrastructure and construction boom was the biggest growth driver for a long time, Beijing now focuses on green technologies. “China’s economic growth model shifted with real estate construction plummeting and clean energy manufacturing and deployment becoming a key economic driver,” the study’s authors say. Almost a quarter of all investments were made by manufacturers and installers of EVs, solar and wind power systems, battery storage systems and other green technologies. Without this sector, China would not have seen any growth in investment at all.
The industrial policy goal of “becoming the technology and market leader in the core technologies of the 21st century” has once again amplified China’s renewables boom in 2023. More than 200 gigawatts of new solar energy capacity will be installed this year. In the previous record year of 2022, it was 87 GW. In 2023, electricity generation from renewable sources grew faster than electricity demand for the first time. If growth is maintained, renewables could force coal and gas out of the grids in the coming years, reducing emissions from the electricity sector.
However, even this unprecedented expansion of renewables may not be enough to reduce emissions fast enough. After all, renewables not only have to push the currently dominant coal-fired electricity out of the grid. They also have to cover the growing electricity demand resulting from the electrification of industry, transport and the heating sector. A scenario by Tsinghua University shows just how great the challenge is. It predicts that between 2020 and 2050, electricity demand will almost double to 14,270 terawatt hours.
As positive as the investments in green technologies are: China’s economy continues to rely too heavily on fossil-based industries. The study authors emphasize that demand for steel and cement has fallen in recent years. Emissions from the cement sector have even fallen so much that they are on a 1.5-degree-compatible path. Direct coal consumption in the industrial sector has also fallen “fairly quickly.”
However, energy demand has recently increased in the iron, steel, and (petro)chemical sectors. And some of this demand is still being met directly by industrial coal-fired power plants. In short, while the industry no longer consumes as much coal directly, it remains too high due to higher electricity demand.
Overall, China has made progress with regard to its economy’s energy intensity. Compared to 2012, energy consumption in 2021 was down by around 26 percent for the same economic output. Beijing has committed itself to this goal under the Paris Agreement. According to study co-author Lauri Myllyvirta, the potential of technical energy efficiency in the industrial sector has largely been exhausted. The goal of reducing the carbon intensity of growth is also likely to be missed.
Overall, China has made progress in terms of the energy intensity of its economy. Compared to 2012, a good 26% less energy had to be used in 2021 to achieve the same economic output. But that is not enough: China is in danger of missing its target of reducing energy intensity by a further 13.5% between 2020 and 2025. Beijing has committed to this target as part of the Paris Agreement. Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA analyst and co-author of the study, said: “The potential for technical energy efficiency in industry has largely been exhausted”. The goal of reducing the CO₂ intensity of growth is also likely to be missed. According to the authors of the study, energy consumption is still too high in almost all sectors.
Like renewables, EVs have also seen tremendous growth. The share of EVs in total production has increased from 5 percent in 2019 to 30 percent between September 2022 and August 2023. As a result, EVs are contributing to achieving the 1.5-degree target, as the authors of the study note.
However, the transport sector as a whole still consumes too much oil. Despite the nationwide lockdowns during the coronavirus pandemic, the sector’s oil consumption has continued to rise on average over the past five years. The authors warn that freight transport, in particular, needs to be decarbonized faster. But electrification of freight transport is still “in its infancy.”
There are some positive developments in the building sector, but the general trend is still pointing in the wrong direction. Much less coal has been used for heating in recent years, which has reduced direct emissions from the building sector. However, indirect emissions – from electric heating and the increased use of air conditioning during summer heatwaves – have risen sharply. In addition, the energy efficiency of existing buildings needs to be improved, which is “challenging,” emphasizes Myllyvirta.
Following its rapid rise to economic superpower status, China is in the midst of a major transformation. In order to meet national and global climate targets, the growth of the heavy industry and construction industry, which are based on cheap coal, must be replaced by a green economy. The key question for success will be whether more renewables can be added to the grid quickly enough and whether coal can be pushed back faster.
But accomplishing this mammoth task will not be enough. As more and more sectors are electrified and electricity demand massively increases, the economy’s energy efficiency must continue to improve. In the short term, China’s emissions appear on the right track with the predicted peak. However, more efforts are needed to achieve the national and global climate targets.
In June 2023, Saber Hossain Chowdhury was appointed Bangladesh’s Special Envoy on Climate Change. It is the pinnacle of a political career. The 62-year-old has long campaigned for social justice and was even arrested and tortured for it.
Chowdhury’s new role comes at a critical time for climate-vulnerable nations like Bangladesh, where tens of millions of lives are at risk from worsening sea level rise, cyclones, and flooding and communities need money to recover from climate impacts they haven’t caused.
He is considered a champion of a loss and damage fund to mobilize more funding for countries particularly vulnerable to the climate crisis. Representatives of developing countries say that Chowdhury speaks for weak countries on this issue and demands that wealthier countries put money on the table. At a ministerial pre-COP meeting in Abu Dhabi, the envoy co-chaired a roundtable discussion on loss and damage finance.
The climate negotiators had agreed on a framework for the functioning of the new fund before the climate conference. On the first day of COP28, the proposals for operationalizing the fund were adopted rather surprisingly. The first countries have pledged millions to the fund. This is also a success for Chowdhury. But the fight is far from over. The initial pledges are nowhere near enough to cope with the immense losses and damage caused by the climate crisis.
Described as a softly-spoken but sharp and eloquent diplomat, Chowdhury is a good candidate to drive the fund forward. He could become a bridge builder, restoring the eroded trust between rich and poorer countries and providing more funding.
A former President of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, an organization of national parliaments, Chowdhury has extensive experience building coalitions of lawmakers to advance global issues.
His insider knowledge of climate diplomacy circles is a major advantage. As chair of Bangladesh’s parliamentary committee on climate change, Chowdhury has attended UN climate talks since 2009. He was a spokesperson for least developed country ministers at COP27, pushing loss and damage front and center despite not being a minister himself.
This battle is also a personal matter for him. His birth town of Chittagong, Bangladesh’s largest port city, is highly vulnerable to flooding.
Before working in the family’s shipping and trading business, Chowdhury studied law, politics, and economics in the UK. Aged 35 in 1996, he jumped full-time into politics and rose to deputy minister roles. A passionate cricket fan, he became President of the Bangladesh Cricket Board.
But his commitment to politics remained resolute despite being arrested and tortured in 2003 in what Amnesty International described as part of a pattern of “politically-motivated detentions.” Representing a constituency in the capital, Dhaka, he campaigned for the criminalization of custodial torture, tobacco control, and women empowerment.
In 2019, he successfully led parliament to declare climate change “a planetary emergency.” Now, his role is to “inject urgency into the international negotiations,” he said recently. The goal: “Protecting the lives and livelihoods of climate-vulnerable people.” Chloé Farand
