The German government devised ambitious plans for a faster energy transition, but many of the plans are not going smoothly. Today, we will examine this in several ways: When it comes to the heating transition, Malte Kreutzfeldt explains why state subsidies for heat pumps in the form of favorable loans are not very popular. We also take a look at a project that was almost considered abandoned: climate money. Now, there are attempts to revive it.
COP29 in Azerbaijan is approaching fast – and with it, doubts and criticism of the host: As Bernhard Pötter analyses, the non-binding pledges presented this week leave out important issues of the climate conference. Meanwhile, a new study shows that Azerbaijan’s oil company is closely intertwined with the country’s government.
We also report on the current warnings about the potential collapse of the Atlantic circulation.
We will keep you updated!
After a slow start at the beginning of the year, the heat pump business in Germany is now doing much better: According to the Ministry for Economic Affairs, the KfW bank received over 15,000 subsidy applications for heat pumps in September, twice as many as in April. Overall, it received over 81,000 applications in the first nine months.
The figures also give an impression of how high the state subsidies are: In addition to the standard subsidy of 30 percent, granted to anyone who installs a new heat pump, over 80 percent of applicants receive the so-called climate speed bonus. It covers 20 percent of the costs and is granted if an oil or gas heating system over 20 years old is replaced in a single-family or two-family home.
Over 60 percent of applicants receive the efficiency bonus of five percent, which is additionally paid for heat pumps with eco-friendly refrigerants. And around 30 percent also qualify for the income bonus, which grants a 30 percent subsidy to homeowners with a taxable household income of less than 40,000 euros. The percentages applied are based on the maximum eligible sum of 30,000 euros for a single-family home. Up to 70 percent of this sum or the actual costs can be subsidized.
However, despite this subsidy, which is also relatively high by international standards, customers still have to pay considerable sums themselves. At a heat pump price of 35,000 euros, customers who receive the maximum subsidy still have to pay 14,000 euros; those who only receive the climate and efficiency bonus have costs of 18,500 euros. Although this additional cost compared to a new gas heating system can be offset over the years thanks to lower operating costs, this initial investment sum is a considerable hurdle for many households.
To lower this hurdle, KfW offers loans in addition to direct subsidies. These are extremely attractive, especially for households with an annual income of less than 90,000 euros: The interest rate is just 0.01 percent for a term of up to five years and 0.27 percent for up to ten years. The interest rate for larger incomes is significantly higher at around 3.3 percent, but still lower than comparable loans on the open market.
However, despite these favorable conditions, the KfW loan is rarely used. Up to and including July – no more recent figures available – it was granted precisely 1,431 times, with the majority receiving the particularly low-cost variant. This means that up to July, a maximum of 2.7 percent of those who applied for a subsidy on the purchase price received the loan – despite at least 30 percent of them fulfilling the criteria for the particularly favorable conditions. Nevertheless, KfW does not want to speak of a failure. “We are seeing good demand for the supplementary loans for heating subsidies,” a spokeswoman said. “The product is being accepted across all federal states.”
However, the heating sector considers the KfW loan a flop: According to reports, the house banks through which applications must be submitted regularly refuse to arrange it. Presumably, the profit compared to the effort involved is too low. KfW does not disclose exactly how the remuneration is regulated. However, it admits: “In principle, banks are under no obligation to pass on KfW loans.” Customers are therefore advised to “utilize the market and make inquiries with various financing partners.”
Because this is apparently not very successful, customers needing a loan for their heat pump are opting for other offers. Thermondo and Octopus, two nationwide heat pump installation companies, have been cooperating with the finance company Consors since the beginning of the year. The latter finances their customers’ heat pumps for up to ten years at a fixed interest rate of 6.49 percent. The provider 1Komma5Grad also partners with Consors. According to the company, the average initial loan amount is around 29,000 euros. Consors did not disclose how many loans have been granted to date.
More details are available from national provider Enpal. Almost every heat pump customer initially takes out a loan, which the company offers at 5.99 percent, according to press spokesman Wolfgang Gründinger. The receivables are sold to special purpose vehicles (SPVs), which sell them to investors such as BlackRock or large pension funds. “In this way, billions of euros are channeled into climate-friendly infrastructure,” the company writes.
In fact, the sums involved are enormous: As Enpal announced this Wednesday, the company has now raised five billion euros from investors for the loans. By 2027, the sum is set to rise to ten billion euros – which will be used to finance solar systems, storage and charging points as well as heat pumps. However, the loans are clearly not only intended to increase the company’s sales. They are also good business in their own right, as demonstrated by the fact that Enpal not only provides them to its own customers, but also offers them to customers of regional installation companies via its subsidiary Enpal Financial Services.
Three weeks before the start of COP29, the Azerbaijani Presidency published the texts that it will promote as its own initiatives alongside the binding resolutions of the conference. The nine declarations and commitments to be adopted during the conference are non-binding, but should be signed by as many states and other stakeholders as possible.
The aim is to promote aspects that are particularly dear to the presidency. However, the core issues of the COP29 negotiations are not included in the declarations: Finance, fossil fuel phase-out, emission reductions, and adaptation. This is why observers criticize the presidency’s lack of ambition. One fear is that the focus on the important but somewhat secondary issues in the declarations could divert attention away from the central issues of the COP – and reduce the pressure to reach an agreement in these controversial areas.
The declarations concern:
The presidency has sent the declarations to the delegations and other participants for comment. It emphasized that these declarations “will not deliver the changes we need to put the world on track to keep 1.5C within reach,” but they play a “significant role” in the presidency’s vision. So far, 32,000 visitors have registered for the conference starting on November 11, but according to the organizers, the number is expected to increase significantly.
The declaration on a general ceasefire during the COP has already been signed by 127 countries and over 1,100 non-state actors. It does not name individual conflicts, but warns that fighting causes additional CO2 emissions, destroys ecosystems and “undermine our efforts to safeguard the planet.” However, it makes no mention of victims or human suffering.
The declaration on energy storage proposes a collective target of 1,500 MW of storage capacity by 2030, “more than a six-fold increase” on the 2022 capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also calls for this in its World Energy Outlook for a climate scenario. In addition, special “zones and corridors” for renewable energies are to help put the resolutions of COP28 into practice, tripling green energy capacities by 2030 and doubling efficiency. With reference to the results of the COP28 Global Stocktake, the declarations also call for the use of existing knowledge and cooperation in other areas.
However, central topics of the climate debate are not addressed in the declarations:
Petter Lydén from Germanwatch considers the declarations presented to have “very little substance” as they are primarily a summary of previous initiatives. Lydén sees a lack of ambition to go beyond previous goals. “We will not sign it because we would be legitimizing something that is not enough,” he told Table.Briefings.
October 24, Port of Odense, Denmark
Ministerial meeting North Seas Ministerial Meeting 2024
The European climate and energy ministers, the EU Energy Commissioner, and representatives of the wind industry will meet on October 24 at the Port of Odense in Denmark for the North Sea Ministerial Meeting. They will discuss how to achieve the goal of installing 20,000 offshore wind turbines in the North Sea. Info
October 24, 4 p.m., Online
Webinar Zero Waste: The Road to COP29
The webinar is part of a series, jointly hosted by the COP29 Presidency and the UN Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Zero Waste, advocating for global zero-waste transitions by promoting innovative national and local initiatives. Info
October 25-27, Berlin
Conference Local Conference of the Youth
1,200 young people between the ages of 14 and 30 will spend a weekend discussing climate-related topics in over 200 program contributions. The conference is co-funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action and the Berlin Senate Urban Mobility, Transport, Climate Action and the Environment Info
October 26, 2 p.m. Mainz/Online
Symposium How do we finance the transformation? On the way to a climate-neutral economy and society
How can private investment be mobilized to secure climate financing? This symposium organized by the German Federal Environmental Foundation will discuss this issue. Info
October 28 – November 1, Bangkok, Thailand
UN Conference UN ozone meeting
The 13th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (COP 13) and the 36th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (MOP 36) will tackle key questions around enhancing the protection of both the ozone layer and the climate. Info
October 29, 3 p.m., Online
Webinar Show us the money! Climate finance prospects at CO29
In this webinar, experts from the Climate Home News platform will discuss how governments could overcome divisions and agree a new global climate finance goal in Baku. Info
October 30, 2 p.m., Online
Webinar “Batteries on wheels”: what can EVs do for the power system?
As batteries on wheels, EVs will be an important cornerstone of tomorrow’s power system. On behalf of T&E, the Fraunhofer research institutes ISI and ISE have modeled the potential savings and identified reasons that still prevents Europe from tapping into the growing “free” storage potential. The main results of the study will be discussed at the T&E webinar. Info
October 30, 3:30 p.m., Online
Webinar Climate finance for livestock development: bridging the gap
Agriculture has received disproportionately low climate finance support. This webinar will explore evidence developed by the Livestock Data for Decisions (LD4D) Climate Finance Solutions Group, a coalition of 20 international livestock and finance experts. Three new evidence briefs aim to equip decision-makers with the knowledge needed to unlock climate finance for sustainable livestock development. Info
Over the past 20 years, mining has increased by more than 50 percent worldwide. As the search for coal, gold and other materials mainly occurs in forest areas, forests around the world are suffering as a result. In an initial overview, the World Resource Institute (WRI) revealed that mining activities destroyed 1.4 million hectares of forest worldwide between 2001 and 2020. The loss of trees corresponds to the emission of around 36 million tons of CO2 per year, comparable to Finland’s greenhouse gas emissions.
On the one hand, this is not much compared to other forest losses: During this period, around 130 million hectares of forest were lost to forestry alone, and a further 90 million fell victim to fires. However, a large part of the destruction caused by mining occurs in particularly vulnerable regions: Primary rainforests with high biodiversity and high biological value, nature reserves, and areas that indigenous communities depend on for their livelihoods. In addition, mining often involves the removal of soil, making it more difficult for nature to regenerate than in the case of deforestation, for example.
The WRI figures are conservative estimates, as they only include mining. The construction of roads, settlements and other infrastructure is not taken into account. The destruction of forests in the search for gold, coal and materials (including for the energy transition) is mainly concentrated in a handful of countries: Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, USA, Canada, Peru, Ghana, Suriname, Myanmar, Australia and Guyana. bpo
Shortly before the CDU/CSU parliamentary group’s energy summit on November 5, an unusual alliance within the party is campaigning for the introduction of a climate bonus. The “Klima-Union” has drawn up a detailed paper on this; according to information from Table.Briefings, the executive committee of the party’s SME association has also adopted similar demands. They are supported by Dennis Radtke, Chairman of the CDU Employees’ Association (CDA), and Roland Koch, Chairman of the conservative-libertarian Ludwig Erhard Foundation.
The Klima Union’s concept and the largely similar paper from the SME association envisage that the revenue from emissions trading should be returned to consumers and the economy in three different ways – as climate bonus, through lower electricity prices and through subsidies for green investments. However, this will not happen until 2027 at the earliest. From then on, the carbon price for the building and transport sector, which was previously set by the state, will also be set on the market, meaning that a sharp increase is expected. “If we want to give the revenue from CO2 pricing back to citizens and companies in full and not misuse it for other purposes like the current German government, then we can reduce electricity costs, finance subsidies and fund a climate bonus,” Thomas Heilmann, member of the German Bundestag and chairman of the Klima-Union, told Table.Briefings.
The idea is for the payout to begin when the revenue from carbon pricing, which currently stands at around 22 billion euros, has risen to 30 billion euros; this is likely to be the case with a carbon price of between 80 and 90 euros per ton. The German government’s financial planning anticipates this to be the case in 2028; however, this sum could also be reached as early as 2027 if the carbon price develops accordingly. If a third of the revenue were paid out evenly per capita, this would result in a climate bonus of 120 euros per year. However, the Klima-Union’s proposal does not include a uniform payment. It wants to make the amount partly dependent on the place of residence, as is the case in Austria: The amount would then be higher in rural areas, where buses or trains are hardly available, than in cities with well-developed public transport services.
So far, only the Klima-Union has advocated this exact form, but general support for the introduction of climate bonus comes from very different wings of the party. CDA chairman and MEP Dennis Radtke, for example, believes that the planned emissions trading in the building and transport sector is the right approach. “But without social compensation, it will not be accepted,” he told Table.Briefings. That is why the Union has already fought at the European Union level “for national revenues to be returned to the people according to a social scaling.” A climate bonus could “make an important contribution.” Support also comes from Roland Koch of the Ludwig Erhard Foundation. He said that low-income households suffered particularly from effective carbon prices. “Without compensation in the form of a climate bonus, this is not politically feasible,” he said. “The yellow vests in France should serve as a warning to us.“
The current demands are in contrast to an energy policy paper that Jens Spahn, deputy leader of the parliamentary group, prepared for the energy summit. In this paper, he argued that the burden on consumers and companies should initially be reduced by lowering electricity tax and grid fees rather than introducing climate money. mkr
In an urgent open letter, more than 40 renowned climate researchers have warned the Nordic Council of Ministers that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse. This could abruptly and dramatically change European climatic conditions, for example, through drastically falling temperatures – with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems and human livelihoods extending far beyond the continent.
The AMOC is the reason for the comparatively mild European climate and one of the most important ocean currents on the planet. Although the researchers admit in their letter that the probability of its collapse is “highly uncertain,” recent scientific results “suggest that the IPCC has underestimated this risk and that the passing of this tipping point is a serious possibility already in the next few decades.”
“The impacts particularly on Nordic Countries would likely be catastrophic,” the letter continues: The region could cool down considerably, and “unprecedented weather extremes” could occur, putting agriculture in north-western Europe at risk. As other potential impacts, the letter lists “a shift in tropical rainfall belts, reduced oceanic carbon dioxide uptake as well as major additional sea-level rise particularly along the American Atlantic coast, and an upheaval of marine ecosystems and fisheries.” It would be practically impossible to adapt to such a climate catastrophe.
This is why the letter urges the Nordic Council of Ministers to “initiate an assessment of this significant risk to the Nordic countries and take steps to minimize this risk as much as possible.” The Nordic Council of Ministers consists of Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Iceland as well as three autonomous regions belonging to Finland and Denmark.
Meanwhile, global fossil fuel subsidies reached a record seven trillion US dollars in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund. According to signatory and climate researcher Stefan Rahmstorf, this shows that there are no credible efforts to prevent a climate catastrophe as outlined in the letter.
Other signatories to the letter include US climate researcher Michael Mann, who is considered the father of the field hockey stick graph; Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK; Swiss climate physicist Thomas Stocker, former co-chair of IPCC Working Group I, as well as researchers from several other European countries, the USA, Australia and China. rtr/ae
According to a new study, Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company SOCAR is closely intertwined with the country’s government and focuses heavily on the continued expansion of fossil fuels. In 2023, the company produced 174 million barrels of oil and gas products, invested 300 million US dollars in the exploration of new reserves from 2022 to 2024 and is helping to circumvent the EU’s energy embargo against Russia. These are the findings of the study “SOCAR- Azerbaijan’s Fossil Fuel Proxy,” recently presented by the NGOs urgewald and Bankwatch network.
The study is based on freely accessible data and shows the close ties between politics and the oil and gas industry in the COP29 host country. Although SOCAR produces less than one percent of the world’s gas and oil, the domestic economy is highly dependent on the sector. Fossil fuels account for 90 percent of export earnings, 60 percent of government revenue and 30 to 50 percent of economic output. In a recent assessment by the “Climate Action Tracker,” the country achieved the worst rating of “critically inadequate.”
“SOCAR is a deeply political organization and the Azerbaijani President’s ties to the company are a major cause for concern,” the study says. President Ilham Aliyev served as SOCAR’s vice-president before taking office and appoints its chief executive and supervisory board. The designated COP29 President and Environment Minister Mukhtar Babayev previously worked at SOCAR for 26 years. The study also accuses the company of being involved in corruption and financing the military conflict with Armenia.
Between 2021 and 2023, SOCAR received 6.8 billion US dollars in loans and contracts from international banks, primarily JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Shortly after winning the bid for COP29, the company founded its subsidiary SOCAR Green, it is tasked with investing in renewables, green hydrogen and CCS. According to expert reports, however, this will primarily serve to help exports rather than to shift the economy away from oil and gas: This is because the EU has agreed to double its gas supplies from Azerbaijan in its search for other gas suppliers after the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022. In addition, the report reveals that SOCAR and Azerbaijan are participating in a refinery in Turkey that circumvents the EU embargo against Russia. bpo
Economic growth urgently needs to be reconciled with climate targets. This is the demand of the G20’s Task Force for the Global Mobilization Against Climate Change (TF Climate) in a report entitled “A Green and Just Planet,” which was published in Washington on Wednesday. It calls for green growth, not growth that excludes climate action.
As the G20 countries are responsible for 80 percent of global emissions, they should also be responsible for at least this proportion of emissions reduction, it says. The countries that have caused the largest share of historical emissions should lead the way. In order to achieve this, industrial strategies and financial architecture must be aligned with climate targets. To this end, the G20 states should develop “green industrial strategies.” to “catalyze cross-sectoral investment, innovation and transformation.”
In the run-up to the G20 summit, which will be held in Rio de Janeiro on November 18 and 19, the Climate Action Network (CAN) has also formulated expectations of the states. At their summit coinciding with COP29, the G20 must set the ground for “an ambitious, fair and responsive climate finance goal and for equitable and just national climate plans,” CAN demands. In this context, CAN believes it is important that the G20 – especially the wealthiest countries – use public funds to contribute to a new climate finance target. kul
Due to the climate crisis, polar bears become increasingly exposed to pathogens. This is the conclusion of a study published in the scientific journal “Plos One.” Researchers analyzed blood samples from polar bears and searched for antibodies against six different pathogens. The samples from the polar bear population in the Chukchi Sea, a part of the Arctic Ocean between Alaska and Siberia, were taken from two time periods: from 1987 to 1994 and from 2008 to 2017.
Compared to the previous period, five of the six pathogens occurred more frequently in the blood samples after 2008. The infection figures for three of the pathogens had even more than doubled. On average, female polar bears were more affected than males – possibly because many of them spend their pregnancy on the mainland in this region. According to the researchers, global warming in the Arctic is progressing almost four times faster than the global average. The polar bears’ habitat, the sea ice, is disappearing at a rapid pace. At the same time, climate change is creating better conditions for viruses, bacteria and parasites.
While the results show that polar bears now come into contact with various germs more often than in the past, it is unclear to what extent the animals actually contract diseases. However, a comparison with brown bear populations in Alaska, among others, suggests that contact with pathogens has so far not significantly harmed polar bear health. The study adds that the situation must continue to be monitored. dpa
Owners of single and two-family homes in Germany are largely unaware of the energy efficiency of their homes. In addition, many are unsettled by the political debates on the heating transition and the Building Energy Act, which prevents them from carrying out renovation measures. This is the result of a study in which the “B+L Marktdaten institute” surveyed more than 2,000 homeowners across Germany in August and September. The study was commissioned by “Initiative Klimaneutrales Deutschland” (IKND) and “Repräsentanz Transparente Gebäudehülle” (RTG), a representative body of trade associations and companies. These are the key findings of the study:
The renovation rate is currently just one percent – a historic low. For Germany to achieve its climate targets, it would require a renovation rate of two percent, says Carolin Friedemann, Managing Director of “Initiative Klimaneutrales Deutschland.” According to the study’s publishers, there is a need for more attractive funding programs, better advisory services, and more planning security. cd
On December 2, hearings will begin at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the case concerning the duties and responsibilities of states in climate change. As Forbes magazine reports, a total of 88 states and several organizations will present their arguments to the court over the course of twelve days. This will then form the basis of the ICJ’s opinion.
The ICJ is hearing the case at the request of the United Nations General Assembly, which unanimously adopted a corresponding resolution by the island state of Vanuatu in March. The General Assembly had put the following questions to the ICJ:
The successful vote in the UN General Assembly is considered a major diplomatic success for Vanuatu. Although an ICJ opinion is not legally binding, it is nevertheless likely to have a political impact. For example, it can influence how states shape environmental and climate laws and how courts rule on climate policy. ae
Shortly before the UN Climate Change Conference in November, the largest sovereign wealth fund in German history could be launched: The German government wants to use “generation capital” worth 200 billion euros to buy securities worldwide. Politicians want to use the expected returns to support the pension system. It could also send a signal to the international financial markets: Look, the world’s third-largest economy is investing in a fossil-free future.
We urgently need this signal. The climate disaster is in full swing and the fossil fuel industry is exacerbating this existential threat by expanding its projects. While international politicians are engaged in tough negotiations to bring CO2 emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, the fossil fuel giants are constantly pouring more oil on the fire.
Against this backdrop, the German parliament is currently debating the draft bill for the “Generation Capital.” And what is the head of the fund that will be responsible for pension investments doing? Anja Mikus, CEO of the state nuclear fund Kenfo, publicly rejects the legislator’s “counterproductive” sustainability requirements. Mikus insists on continuing to invest in gas and oil companies – as if the Paris Climate Agreement had never existed.
The fact is that Kenfo has invested in over 100 fossil fuel companies to date. These include the so-called “oil majors” Shell, Total Energies and BP as well as the two companies with the biggest short-term expansion plans in the sector: the Brazilian group Petrobras and Saudi Aramco.
According to a recent Greenpeace study, the Kenfo portfolio also includes other companies with a volume of €1.3 billion that have been linked to severe environmental damage and human rights violations.
The head of Kenfo is trying to downplay the role of her fund management in such issues: excluding fossil stocks will not save any CO2. In doing so, she ignores the signaling effect of targeted divestment – the sale of critical securities based on clearly defined exclusion criteria. Scientific research has long since proven this “signaling effect” and emission reductions resulting from such divestment steps.
Numerous renowned investors have already used this lever. For example, the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund (ISIF) has formulated exclusions for fossil fuel companies, as have various Dutch pension funds such as PME, PFZW and ABP. Incidentally, they are not worried that kicking out fossil fuel companies will affect their returns. ABP quote: “The fund does not expect this decision to have a negative impact on long-term returns.”
The Norwegian pension fund shows the positive climate effects such steps can have: In 2015, the Norwegian parliament removed large coal companies from the fund portfolio. The fact that such a globally respected fund divested sent a strong signal to the industry. It was followed by a whole cascade of further coal divestment decisions throughout the European financial sector, by investors, banks and insurers. Since then, coal companies have found it much more difficult to raise fresh capital to finance expansion projects. Every untapped coal mine prevents millions of tons of harmful greenhouse gases from being emitted.
Kenfo has also joined the list: It excludes major coal mining companies and operators of coal-fired power plants, as well as some other companies. This makes the stubborn refusal of the Kenfo boss to rid her portfolio of dirty investments in oil and gas extraction all the more incomprehensible. In this way, she could finally bring Kenfo’s climate promises to life, in line with the recommendations of the German government’s Sustainable Finance Advisory Board. This is also the demand of a broad NGO coalition.
Given the ruthless expansion strategy of the oil and gas industry, the much-touted transformation argument is also unfounded. So far, there is no evidence that investors can positively influence the climate impact of such companies through “critical dialogue.” What investor seriously believes Saudi Aramco can be put on a climate course at the conference table?
If Anja Mikus allows her fund management to continue investing as it does now, she is betting against the interests of future generations. The foundation for their prosperity is sustainability, climate action and respect for human rights – not a tipped climate, a deforested Amazon and exploited workers.
In a country that has declared itself a pioneering role as a “sustainable finance location,” fossil-free public investment must become the minimum standard. Only then can Kenfo and the “generational capital” do generations justice.
Kathrin Petz has been working as a financial campaigner for the NGO Urgewald since 2012. She works intensively on the impact of public and private financial institutions in Germany on the climate. She has experience from numerous divestment campaigns. Mathias von Gemmingen is a spokesperson for the climate initiative FOSSIL FREE Berlin and has volunteered in divestment since 2015.
The German government devised ambitious plans for a faster energy transition, but many of the plans are not going smoothly. Today, we will examine this in several ways: When it comes to the heating transition, Malte Kreutzfeldt explains why state subsidies for heat pumps in the form of favorable loans are not very popular. We also take a look at a project that was almost considered abandoned: climate money. Now, there are attempts to revive it.
COP29 in Azerbaijan is approaching fast – and with it, doubts and criticism of the host: As Bernhard Pötter analyses, the non-binding pledges presented this week leave out important issues of the climate conference. Meanwhile, a new study shows that Azerbaijan’s oil company is closely intertwined with the country’s government.
We also report on the current warnings about the potential collapse of the Atlantic circulation.
We will keep you updated!
After a slow start at the beginning of the year, the heat pump business in Germany is now doing much better: According to the Ministry for Economic Affairs, the KfW bank received over 15,000 subsidy applications for heat pumps in September, twice as many as in April. Overall, it received over 81,000 applications in the first nine months.
The figures also give an impression of how high the state subsidies are: In addition to the standard subsidy of 30 percent, granted to anyone who installs a new heat pump, over 80 percent of applicants receive the so-called climate speed bonus. It covers 20 percent of the costs and is granted if an oil or gas heating system over 20 years old is replaced in a single-family or two-family home.
Over 60 percent of applicants receive the efficiency bonus of five percent, which is additionally paid for heat pumps with eco-friendly refrigerants. And around 30 percent also qualify for the income bonus, which grants a 30 percent subsidy to homeowners with a taxable household income of less than 40,000 euros. The percentages applied are based on the maximum eligible sum of 30,000 euros for a single-family home. Up to 70 percent of this sum or the actual costs can be subsidized.
However, despite this subsidy, which is also relatively high by international standards, customers still have to pay considerable sums themselves. At a heat pump price of 35,000 euros, customers who receive the maximum subsidy still have to pay 14,000 euros; those who only receive the climate and efficiency bonus have costs of 18,500 euros. Although this additional cost compared to a new gas heating system can be offset over the years thanks to lower operating costs, this initial investment sum is a considerable hurdle for many households.
To lower this hurdle, KfW offers loans in addition to direct subsidies. These are extremely attractive, especially for households with an annual income of less than 90,000 euros: The interest rate is just 0.01 percent for a term of up to five years and 0.27 percent for up to ten years. The interest rate for larger incomes is significantly higher at around 3.3 percent, but still lower than comparable loans on the open market.
However, despite these favorable conditions, the KfW loan is rarely used. Up to and including July – no more recent figures available – it was granted precisely 1,431 times, with the majority receiving the particularly low-cost variant. This means that up to July, a maximum of 2.7 percent of those who applied for a subsidy on the purchase price received the loan – despite at least 30 percent of them fulfilling the criteria for the particularly favorable conditions. Nevertheless, KfW does not want to speak of a failure. “We are seeing good demand for the supplementary loans for heating subsidies,” a spokeswoman said. “The product is being accepted across all federal states.”
However, the heating sector considers the KfW loan a flop: According to reports, the house banks through which applications must be submitted regularly refuse to arrange it. Presumably, the profit compared to the effort involved is too low. KfW does not disclose exactly how the remuneration is regulated. However, it admits: “In principle, banks are under no obligation to pass on KfW loans.” Customers are therefore advised to “utilize the market and make inquiries with various financing partners.”
Because this is apparently not very successful, customers needing a loan for their heat pump are opting for other offers. Thermondo and Octopus, two nationwide heat pump installation companies, have been cooperating with the finance company Consors since the beginning of the year. The latter finances their customers’ heat pumps for up to ten years at a fixed interest rate of 6.49 percent. The provider 1Komma5Grad also partners with Consors. According to the company, the average initial loan amount is around 29,000 euros. Consors did not disclose how many loans have been granted to date.
More details are available from national provider Enpal. Almost every heat pump customer initially takes out a loan, which the company offers at 5.99 percent, according to press spokesman Wolfgang Gründinger. The receivables are sold to special purpose vehicles (SPVs), which sell them to investors such as BlackRock or large pension funds. “In this way, billions of euros are channeled into climate-friendly infrastructure,” the company writes.
In fact, the sums involved are enormous: As Enpal announced this Wednesday, the company has now raised five billion euros from investors for the loans. By 2027, the sum is set to rise to ten billion euros – which will be used to finance solar systems, storage and charging points as well as heat pumps. However, the loans are clearly not only intended to increase the company’s sales. They are also good business in their own right, as demonstrated by the fact that Enpal not only provides them to its own customers, but also offers them to customers of regional installation companies via its subsidiary Enpal Financial Services.
Three weeks before the start of COP29, the Azerbaijani Presidency published the texts that it will promote as its own initiatives alongside the binding resolutions of the conference. The nine declarations and commitments to be adopted during the conference are non-binding, but should be signed by as many states and other stakeholders as possible.
The aim is to promote aspects that are particularly dear to the presidency. However, the core issues of the COP29 negotiations are not included in the declarations: Finance, fossil fuel phase-out, emission reductions, and adaptation. This is why observers criticize the presidency’s lack of ambition. One fear is that the focus on the important but somewhat secondary issues in the declarations could divert attention away from the central issues of the COP – and reduce the pressure to reach an agreement in these controversial areas.
The declarations concern:
The presidency has sent the declarations to the delegations and other participants for comment. It emphasized that these declarations “will not deliver the changes we need to put the world on track to keep 1.5C within reach,” but they play a “significant role” in the presidency’s vision. So far, 32,000 visitors have registered for the conference starting on November 11, but according to the organizers, the number is expected to increase significantly.
The declaration on a general ceasefire during the COP has already been signed by 127 countries and over 1,100 non-state actors. It does not name individual conflicts, but warns that fighting causes additional CO2 emissions, destroys ecosystems and “undermine our efforts to safeguard the planet.” However, it makes no mention of victims or human suffering.
The declaration on energy storage proposes a collective target of 1,500 MW of storage capacity by 2030, “more than a six-fold increase” on the 2022 capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also calls for this in its World Energy Outlook for a climate scenario. In addition, special “zones and corridors” for renewable energies are to help put the resolutions of COP28 into practice, tripling green energy capacities by 2030 and doubling efficiency. With reference to the results of the COP28 Global Stocktake, the declarations also call for the use of existing knowledge and cooperation in other areas.
However, central topics of the climate debate are not addressed in the declarations:
Petter Lydén from Germanwatch considers the declarations presented to have “very little substance” as they are primarily a summary of previous initiatives. Lydén sees a lack of ambition to go beyond previous goals. “We will not sign it because we would be legitimizing something that is not enough,” he told Table.Briefings.
October 24, Port of Odense, Denmark
Ministerial meeting North Seas Ministerial Meeting 2024
The European climate and energy ministers, the EU Energy Commissioner, and representatives of the wind industry will meet on October 24 at the Port of Odense in Denmark for the North Sea Ministerial Meeting. They will discuss how to achieve the goal of installing 20,000 offshore wind turbines in the North Sea. Info
October 24, 4 p.m., Online
Webinar Zero Waste: The Road to COP29
The webinar is part of a series, jointly hosted by the COP29 Presidency and the UN Secretary-General’s Advisory Board on Zero Waste, advocating for global zero-waste transitions by promoting innovative national and local initiatives. Info
October 25-27, Berlin
Conference Local Conference of the Youth
1,200 young people between the ages of 14 and 30 will spend a weekend discussing climate-related topics in over 200 program contributions. The conference is co-funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action and the Berlin Senate Urban Mobility, Transport, Climate Action and the Environment Info
October 26, 2 p.m. Mainz/Online
Symposium How do we finance the transformation? On the way to a climate-neutral economy and society
How can private investment be mobilized to secure climate financing? This symposium organized by the German Federal Environmental Foundation will discuss this issue. Info
October 28 – November 1, Bangkok, Thailand
UN Conference UN ozone meeting
The 13th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer (COP 13) and the 36th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (MOP 36) will tackle key questions around enhancing the protection of both the ozone layer and the climate. Info
October 29, 3 p.m., Online
Webinar Show us the money! Climate finance prospects at CO29
In this webinar, experts from the Climate Home News platform will discuss how governments could overcome divisions and agree a new global climate finance goal in Baku. Info
October 30, 2 p.m., Online
Webinar “Batteries on wheels”: what can EVs do for the power system?
As batteries on wheels, EVs will be an important cornerstone of tomorrow’s power system. On behalf of T&E, the Fraunhofer research institutes ISI and ISE have modeled the potential savings and identified reasons that still prevents Europe from tapping into the growing “free” storage potential. The main results of the study will be discussed at the T&E webinar. Info
October 30, 3:30 p.m., Online
Webinar Climate finance for livestock development: bridging the gap
Agriculture has received disproportionately low climate finance support. This webinar will explore evidence developed by the Livestock Data for Decisions (LD4D) Climate Finance Solutions Group, a coalition of 20 international livestock and finance experts. Three new evidence briefs aim to equip decision-makers with the knowledge needed to unlock climate finance for sustainable livestock development. Info
Over the past 20 years, mining has increased by more than 50 percent worldwide. As the search for coal, gold and other materials mainly occurs in forest areas, forests around the world are suffering as a result. In an initial overview, the World Resource Institute (WRI) revealed that mining activities destroyed 1.4 million hectares of forest worldwide between 2001 and 2020. The loss of trees corresponds to the emission of around 36 million tons of CO2 per year, comparable to Finland’s greenhouse gas emissions.
On the one hand, this is not much compared to other forest losses: During this period, around 130 million hectares of forest were lost to forestry alone, and a further 90 million fell victim to fires. However, a large part of the destruction caused by mining occurs in particularly vulnerable regions: Primary rainforests with high biodiversity and high biological value, nature reserves, and areas that indigenous communities depend on for their livelihoods. In addition, mining often involves the removal of soil, making it more difficult for nature to regenerate than in the case of deforestation, for example.
The WRI figures are conservative estimates, as they only include mining. The construction of roads, settlements and other infrastructure is not taken into account. The destruction of forests in the search for gold, coal and materials (including for the energy transition) is mainly concentrated in a handful of countries: Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, USA, Canada, Peru, Ghana, Suriname, Myanmar, Australia and Guyana. bpo
Shortly before the CDU/CSU parliamentary group’s energy summit on November 5, an unusual alliance within the party is campaigning for the introduction of a climate bonus. The “Klima-Union” has drawn up a detailed paper on this; according to information from Table.Briefings, the executive committee of the party’s SME association has also adopted similar demands. They are supported by Dennis Radtke, Chairman of the CDU Employees’ Association (CDA), and Roland Koch, Chairman of the conservative-libertarian Ludwig Erhard Foundation.
The Klima Union’s concept and the largely similar paper from the SME association envisage that the revenue from emissions trading should be returned to consumers and the economy in three different ways – as climate bonus, through lower electricity prices and through subsidies for green investments. However, this will not happen until 2027 at the earliest. From then on, the carbon price for the building and transport sector, which was previously set by the state, will also be set on the market, meaning that a sharp increase is expected. “If we want to give the revenue from CO2 pricing back to citizens and companies in full and not misuse it for other purposes like the current German government, then we can reduce electricity costs, finance subsidies and fund a climate bonus,” Thomas Heilmann, member of the German Bundestag and chairman of the Klima-Union, told Table.Briefings.
The idea is for the payout to begin when the revenue from carbon pricing, which currently stands at around 22 billion euros, has risen to 30 billion euros; this is likely to be the case with a carbon price of between 80 and 90 euros per ton. The German government’s financial planning anticipates this to be the case in 2028; however, this sum could also be reached as early as 2027 if the carbon price develops accordingly. If a third of the revenue were paid out evenly per capita, this would result in a climate bonus of 120 euros per year. However, the Klima-Union’s proposal does not include a uniform payment. It wants to make the amount partly dependent on the place of residence, as is the case in Austria: The amount would then be higher in rural areas, where buses or trains are hardly available, than in cities with well-developed public transport services.
So far, only the Klima-Union has advocated this exact form, but general support for the introduction of climate bonus comes from very different wings of the party. CDA chairman and MEP Dennis Radtke, for example, believes that the planned emissions trading in the building and transport sector is the right approach. “But without social compensation, it will not be accepted,” he told Table.Briefings. That is why the Union has already fought at the European Union level “for national revenues to be returned to the people according to a social scaling.” A climate bonus could “make an important contribution.” Support also comes from Roland Koch of the Ludwig Erhard Foundation. He said that low-income households suffered particularly from effective carbon prices. “Without compensation in the form of a climate bonus, this is not politically feasible,” he said. “The yellow vests in France should serve as a warning to us.“
The current demands are in contrast to an energy policy paper that Jens Spahn, deputy leader of the parliamentary group, prepared for the energy summit. In this paper, he argued that the burden on consumers and companies should initially be reduced by lowering electricity tax and grid fees rather than introducing climate money. mkr
In an urgent open letter, more than 40 renowned climate researchers have warned the Nordic Council of Ministers that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse. This could abruptly and dramatically change European climatic conditions, for example, through drastically falling temperatures – with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems and human livelihoods extending far beyond the continent.
The AMOC is the reason for the comparatively mild European climate and one of the most important ocean currents on the planet. Although the researchers admit in their letter that the probability of its collapse is “highly uncertain,” recent scientific results “suggest that the IPCC has underestimated this risk and that the passing of this tipping point is a serious possibility already in the next few decades.”
“The impacts particularly on Nordic Countries would likely be catastrophic,” the letter continues: The region could cool down considerably, and “unprecedented weather extremes” could occur, putting agriculture in north-western Europe at risk. As other potential impacts, the letter lists “a shift in tropical rainfall belts, reduced oceanic carbon dioxide uptake as well as major additional sea-level rise particularly along the American Atlantic coast, and an upheaval of marine ecosystems and fisheries.” It would be practically impossible to adapt to such a climate catastrophe.
This is why the letter urges the Nordic Council of Ministers to “initiate an assessment of this significant risk to the Nordic countries and take steps to minimize this risk as much as possible.” The Nordic Council of Ministers consists of Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Iceland as well as three autonomous regions belonging to Finland and Denmark.
Meanwhile, global fossil fuel subsidies reached a record seven trillion US dollars in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund. According to signatory and climate researcher Stefan Rahmstorf, this shows that there are no credible efforts to prevent a climate catastrophe as outlined in the letter.
Other signatories to the letter include US climate researcher Michael Mann, who is considered the father of the field hockey stick graph; Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK; Swiss climate physicist Thomas Stocker, former co-chair of IPCC Working Group I, as well as researchers from several other European countries, the USA, Australia and China. rtr/ae
According to a new study, Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company SOCAR is closely intertwined with the country’s government and focuses heavily on the continued expansion of fossil fuels. In 2023, the company produced 174 million barrels of oil and gas products, invested 300 million US dollars in the exploration of new reserves from 2022 to 2024 and is helping to circumvent the EU’s energy embargo against Russia. These are the findings of the study “SOCAR- Azerbaijan’s Fossil Fuel Proxy,” recently presented by the NGOs urgewald and Bankwatch network.
The study is based on freely accessible data and shows the close ties between politics and the oil and gas industry in the COP29 host country. Although SOCAR produces less than one percent of the world’s gas and oil, the domestic economy is highly dependent on the sector. Fossil fuels account for 90 percent of export earnings, 60 percent of government revenue and 30 to 50 percent of economic output. In a recent assessment by the “Climate Action Tracker,” the country achieved the worst rating of “critically inadequate.”
“SOCAR is a deeply political organization and the Azerbaijani President’s ties to the company are a major cause for concern,” the study says. President Ilham Aliyev served as SOCAR’s vice-president before taking office and appoints its chief executive and supervisory board. The designated COP29 President and Environment Minister Mukhtar Babayev previously worked at SOCAR for 26 years. The study also accuses the company of being involved in corruption and financing the military conflict with Armenia.
Between 2021 and 2023, SOCAR received 6.8 billion US dollars in loans and contracts from international banks, primarily JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Shortly after winning the bid for COP29, the company founded its subsidiary SOCAR Green, it is tasked with investing in renewables, green hydrogen and CCS. According to expert reports, however, this will primarily serve to help exports rather than to shift the economy away from oil and gas: This is because the EU has agreed to double its gas supplies from Azerbaijan in its search for other gas suppliers after the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022. In addition, the report reveals that SOCAR and Azerbaijan are participating in a refinery in Turkey that circumvents the EU embargo against Russia. bpo
Economic growth urgently needs to be reconciled with climate targets. This is the demand of the G20’s Task Force for the Global Mobilization Against Climate Change (TF Climate) in a report entitled “A Green and Just Planet,” which was published in Washington on Wednesday. It calls for green growth, not growth that excludes climate action.
As the G20 countries are responsible for 80 percent of global emissions, they should also be responsible for at least this proportion of emissions reduction, it says. The countries that have caused the largest share of historical emissions should lead the way. In order to achieve this, industrial strategies and financial architecture must be aligned with climate targets. To this end, the G20 states should develop “green industrial strategies.” to “catalyze cross-sectoral investment, innovation and transformation.”
In the run-up to the G20 summit, which will be held in Rio de Janeiro on November 18 and 19, the Climate Action Network (CAN) has also formulated expectations of the states. At their summit coinciding with COP29, the G20 must set the ground for “an ambitious, fair and responsive climate finance goal and for equitable and just national climate plans,” CAN demands. In this context, CAN believes it is important that the G20 – especially the wealthiest countries – use public funds to contribute to a new climate finance target. kul
Due to the climate crisis, polar bears become increasingly exposed to pathogens. This is the conclusion of a study published in the scientific journal “Plos One.” Researchers analyzed blood samples from polar bears and searched for antibodies against six different pathogens. The samples from the polar bear population in the Chukchi Sea, a part of the Arctic Ocean between Alaska and Siberia, were taken from two time periods: from 1987 to 1994 and from 2008 to 2017.
Compared to the previous period, five of the six pathogens occurred more frequently in the blood samples after 2008. The infection figures for three of the pathogens had even more than doubled. On average, female polar bears were more affected than males – possibly because many of them spend their pregnancy on the mainland in this region. According to the researchers, global warming in the Arctic is progressing almost four times faster than the global average. The polar bears’ habitat, the sea ice, is disappearing at a rapid pace. At the same time, climate change is creating better conditions for viruses, bacteria and parasites.
While the results show that polar bears now come into contact with various germs more often than in the past, it is unclear to what extent the animals actually contract diseases. However, a comparison with brown bear populations in Alaska, among others, suggests that contact with pathogens has so far not significantly harmed polar bear health. The study adds that the situation must continue to be monitored. dpa
Owners of single and two-family homes in Germany are largely unaware of the energy efficiency of their homes. In addition, many are unsettled by the political debates on the heating transition and the Building Energy Act, which prevents them from carrying out renovation measures. This is the result of a study in which the “B+L Marktdaten institute” surveyed more than 2,000 homeowners across Germany in August and September. The study was commissioned by “Initiative Klimaneutrales Deutschland” (IKND) and “Repräsentanz Transparente Gebäudehülle” (RTG), a representative body of trade associations and companies. These are the key findings of the study:
The renovation rate is currently just one percent – a historic low. For Germany to achieve its climate targets, it would require a renovation rate of two percent, says Carolin Friedemann, Managing Director of “Initiative Klimaneutrales Deutschland.” According to the study’s publishers, there is a need for more attractive funding programs, better advisory services, and more planning security. cd
On December 2, hearings will begin at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the case concerning the duties and responsibilities of states in climate change. As Forbes magazine reports, a total of 88 states and several organizations will present their arguments to the court over the course of twelve days. This will then form the basis of the ICJ’s opinion.
The ICJ is hearing the case at the request of the United Nations General Assembly, which unanimously adopted a corresponding resolution by the island state of Vanuatu in March. The General Assembly had put the following questions to the ICJ:
The successful vote in the UN General Assembly is considered a major diplomatic success for Vanuatu. Although an ICJ opinion is not legally binding, it is nevertheless likely to have a political impact. For example, it can influence how states shape environmental and climate laws and how courts rule on climate policy. ae
Shortly before the UN Climate Change Conference in November, the largest sovereign wealth fund in German history could be launched: The German government wants to use “generation capital” worth 200 billion euros to buy securities worldwide. Politicians want to use the expected returns to support the pension system. It could also send a signal to the international financial markets: Look, the world’s third-largest economy is investing in a fossil-free future.
We urgently need this signal. The climate disaster is in full swing and the fossil fuel industry is exacerbating this existential threat by expanding its projects. While international politicians are engaged in tough negotiations to bring CO2 emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, the fossil fuel giants are constantly pouring more oil on the fire.
Against this backdrop, the German parliament is currently debating the draft bill for the “Generation Capital.” And what is the head of the fund that will be responsible for pension investments doing? Anja Mikus, CEO of the state nuclear fund Kenfo, publicly rejects the legislator’s “counterproductive” sustainability requirements. Mikus insists on continuing to invest in gas and oil companies – as if the Paris Climate Agreement had never existed.
The fact is that Kenfo has invested in over 100 fossil fuel companies to date. These include the so-called “oil majors” Shell, Total Energies and BP as well as the two companies with the biggest short-term expansion plans in the sector: the Brazilian group Petrobras and Saudi Aramco.
According to a recent Greenpeace study, the Kenfo portfolio also includes other companies with a volume of €1.3 billion that have been linked to severe environmental damage and human rights violations.
The head of Kenfo is trying to downplay the role of her fund management in such issues: excluding fossil stocks will not save any CO2. In doing so, she ignores the signaling effect of targeted divestment – the sale of critical securities based on clearly defined exclusion criteria. Scientific research has long since proven this “signaling effect” and emission reductions resulting from such divestment steps.
Numerous renowned investors have already used this lever. For example, the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund (ISIF) has formulated exclusions for fossil fuel companies, as have various Dutch pension funds such as PME, PFZW and ABP. Incidentally, they are not worried that kicking out fossil fuel companies will affect their returns. ABP quote: “The fund does not expect this decision to have a negative impact on long-term returns.”
The Norwegian pension fund shows the positive climate effects such steps can have: In 2015, the Norwegian parliament removed large coal companies from the fund portfolio. The fact that such a globally respected fund divested sent a strong signal to the industry. It was followed by a whole cascade of further coal divestment decisions throughout the European financial sector, by investors, banks and insurers. Since then, coal companies have found it much more difficult to raise fresh capital to finance expansion projects. Every untapped coal mine prevents millions of tons of harmful greenhouse gases from being emitted.
Kenfo has also joined the list: It excludes major coal mining companies and operators of coal-fired power plants, as well as some other companies. This makes the stubborn refusal of the Kenfo boss to rid her portfolio of dirty investments in oil and gas extraction all the more incomprehensible. In this way, she could finally bring Kenfo’s climate promises to life, in line with the recommendations of the German government’s Sustainable Finance Advisory Board. This is also the demand of a broad NGO coalition.
Given the ruthless expansion strategy of the oil and gas industry, the much-touted transformation argument is also unfounded. So far, there is no evidence that investors can positively influence the climate impact of such companies through “critical dialogue.” What investor seriously believes Saudi Aramco can be put on a climate course at the conference table?
If Anja Mikus allows her fund management to continue investing as it does now, she is betting against the interests of future generations. The foundation for their prosperity is sustainability, climate action and respect for human rights – not a tipped climate, a deforested Amazon and exploited workers.
In a country that has declared itself a pioneering role as a “sustainable finance location,” fossil-free public investment must become the minimum standard. Only then can Kenfo and the “generational capital” do generations justice.
Kathrin Petz has been working as a financial campaigner for the NGO Urgewald since 2012. She works intensively on the impact of public and private financial institutions in Germany on the climate. She has experience from numerous divestment campaigns. Mathias von Gemmingen is a spokesperson for the climate initiative FOSSIL FREE Berlin and has volunteered in divestment since 2015.