Table.Briefing: Climate (English)

Germany deletes carbon credits + Uganda’s energy transition + Climate action and the military

Dear reader,

For a long time, the German coal phase-out came under suspicion: Carbon credits from decommissioned coal-fired power plants could potentially be used for emissions elsewhere in Europe. We have investigated how the German government intends to prevent this “waterbed effect.” This week’s Climate.Table looks at Uganda and its ambitious targets as another example of how the energy transition and genuine climate action can work in other countries.

But there is also this news: Hurricanes have become so destructive that researchers propose a new way of calculating their wind speeds. And the Atlantic current and the Amazon rainforest appear to be approaching their dangerous tipping points.

Because all this is so much and so important, we aim to keep you even better informed: Starting next week, you will receive Climate.Table twice a week: On Tuesday and, as usual, on Thursday. That means you will receive analyses, background information, news, charts, interviews, opinions and profiles on climate issues in Germany, Europe and worldwide twice a week.

We are looking forward to providing you with even more important news. Stay tuned for more!

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Bernhard Pötter
Image of Bernhard  Pötter

Feature

Coal exit: Germany deletes all carbon credits

Decommissioned: Voerde coal-fired power plant near Dinslaken.

Germany is removing all carbon credits from the market that are no longer being used by power plants after they have been decommissioned following the country’s coal exit. These credits are now temporarily stored in the EU Emissions Trading System’s “Market Stability Reserve” (MSR). According to the German government, however, they will no longer return to the market. This means they cannot be used elsewhere in Europe’s carbon trading system. The German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) has confirmed this to Table.Media.

Government refutes accusations against climate policy

One year after the conflict surrounding the evacuation of the village of Lützerath and the compromise on an early coal phase-out in the Rhineland coalfield, this move by the German government also aims to counter political accusations against the effectiveness of its climate policy. This is because the so-called “waterbed effect” in the European emissions trading system means that carbon credits not used in one country could be used elsewhere for carbon emissions. This was the impression given by German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) in November. He questioned the 2030 coal phase-out and explained: “This date won’t do anything for the climate anyway, as the carbon emissions saved in Germany may also be incurred in Poland, for example, due to European regulations.” That is now ruled out.

This is because even in the unlikely event that the credits return to the market from the MSR at some point, Germany has requested the EU to delete them at the end of 2023. “In this way, national deletion prevents a waterbed effect,” explained a ministry spokesperson. The ministry led by the Green Party had already announced a year ago that it would ensure that the credits from the phase-out would disappear from the market.

Germany forgoes money for the climate fund

At the same time, the German government forgoes revenue by permanently retiring these credits. Depending on the number of credits and their price at current auctions, the credits would otherwise flush money into Germany’s Climate and Transformation Fund. The exact amount is unclear. In 2022, 6.8 billion euros from all auctioned credits flowed from the ETS into the fund. Following the Constitutional Court’s ruling from November 15, the fund is about 60 billion short for the coming years.

According to the BMWK, German power plants with a total capacity of 414 MW were decommissioned in 2022 as part of the German coal exit. According to a Green Budget Germany (GBG) study commissioned by the green electricity operator Green Planet Energy, eight hard coal-fired power plant units and six lignite-fired power plant units with a total capacity of around 6.5 GW were shut down in 2021.

Long uncertain: How many credits will be deleted?

It is disputed how many carbon allowances have to be deleted after the decommissioning of the plants. The EU and Germany used different calculation methods for a long time, and the deletion criteria were unclear. The EU calculates a power plant’s carbon emissions using an average value from the last five years. Germany, on the other hand, calculated how much carbon dioxide the atmosphere would actually be saved by decommissioning and applied this amount.

Because the EU and Germany disagreed on a calculation method, Germany was unable to have its credits deleted by the EU for 2021 after the coal exit. An agreement has now been reached and Germany has adopted the EU criteria. And according to the BMWK, the credits freed up in 2021 will not be available to the market, but will instead be stored in the MSR and deleted later.

The MSR is intended to serve as a backup buffer in the ETS if credits become unexpectedly scarce and prices rise rapidly. If fewer than 400 million credits are on the market, additional credits can flow back into the market from the MSR. However, if more than 400 million credits are in the MSR, they are automatically and permanently deleted – and this MSR sum has currently grown to around 1.1 billion, meaning that deletion is practically certain. According to the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt), Germany receives 92 million carbon credits annually from the EU. In 2022, Germany received a total of 6.8 billion euros from auctioning these credits.

Criticism: Ten billion in revenue, 23 billion in climate damage

According to the GBG calculation, the 14 power plant units decommissioned in 2021 emitted around 118 million tons of CO2 between 2016 and 2020. The report criticizes that deleting these credits, which was impossible in 2021 due to the disagreements between Germany and the EU, would have reduced all EU credits by this amount. However, the BMWK states that they have been placed in the MSR and will be deleted later.

According to the GBG, Germany generated a total of 9.6 billion euros by auctioning these credits. However, this contrasts climate-related damages of 23.3 billion euros, which, according to calculations, were caused by the additional 118 million tons. However, due to the complex MSR calculation methods, the BMWK does not consider the “pure emission volumes of the decommissioned power plants to be a viable reference point for estimating any auction revenues.”

  • Coal phase-out
  • Emissions trading
  • EU

Uganda’s energy transition: renewables, oil, nuclear and foreign support

Installation of a rooftop solar system on a house in Kaabong Karamoja, Uganda.

Uganda has joined other African countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya to launch an energy transition plan (ETP). The plan unveiled at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, sets out an ambitious yet feasible pathway to achieve universal energy access by the end of the decade and a peak in emissions by 2040

However, the plan’s success depends on many variables. For example, on whether the state and foreign donors raise enough money for the annual investments of eight billion US dollars. Another decisive factor will be whether the government and authorities plan effectively and how major energy projects are implemented. These include, for example, the development of a nuclear industry with Russian help or the realization of the controversial EACOP oil pipeline.

Target: net zero in the energy sector by 2065

According to the ETP and the national climate plan NDC, Uganda’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions will reach around 20 million tons by 2030 and about 23 million tons of CO2 equivalents by 2040 in the best-case scenario – and with foreign help. “In a scenario where Uganda did not take further action, energy-sector emissions would reach 30 Mt CO2-eq in 2030 and would not be on course to peak even in 2050.” 

Uganda’s new plan sets out a robust pathway to meet economic growth and development objectives in a secure, affordable and sustainable way. The report noted Uganda will be able to reach net zero emissions from its energy sector by 2065.  

The country’s growth and development also depend on the increasing utilization of modern energies. Electricity consumption is expected to grow by 14 percent per year. It is expected to climb from just under 80 kWh per capita today to around 1,750 kWh per capita in 2050, which is higher than the current level in Egypt. The demand for oil is expected to triple due to traffic growth.

However, Ugandan oil production and a refinery in Hoima in Western Uganda are only expected to cover part of this demand. Crude oil production is expected to peak at around 230,000 barrels per day by the end of this decade. Consequently, demand will stay higher than production and Uganda will continue to depend on fuel imports.

Uganda’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, said the plan marks a huge step forward in the country’s efforts to ensure every person in Uganda has access to secure, affordable and sustainable energy. However, the ETP also states that “we remain energy poor, have little access to electricity and clean cooking facilities and are among the countries with the lowest per capita consumption of modern energy in the world.” Around 90 percent of Uganda’s energy needs are still covered by solid biomass such as wood and charcoal. This is not sustainable, nor is it an option to fuel future growth in Uganda,” the report states.   

How realistic is the plan?

For Richard Kimbowa, Programme Manager of the Uganda Coalition for Sustainable Development, “The key question here is how the Government is committed to the attainment of a renewable energy future in the long run.” A “steady allocation of public finance alongside private inflows” is needed to meet the renewables targets by 2050. “The purchasing power of households remains very low.” Large revenues from electricity are not to be expected.

Climate activist Moses Mulindwa told Table.Media that the plan’s success also depends on its “adaptability.” Climate change “is dynamic, and a robust strategy should include contingencies for unforeseen challenges.” Another critical factor is the involvement of the public and interest groups. “Transparency in reporting and monitoring mechanisms is vital for accountability,” said Mulindwa. “Collaborations with international experts and organizations can further enhance the plan’s credibility, fostering an environment of shared knowledge and expertise.”

According to the ETP, “strong partnerships” are also officially the key to realizing the plan. The goal of net-zero emissions by 2065 will require annual investments in clean energy of eight billion US dollars. Uganda also requires yearly investments of around 850 million US dollars by 2030 to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals of “universal access to electricity” and “clean cooking.” This will require many sources of funding. Richard Kimbowa considers the realization of large parts of the ETP and NDC dependent “on international support.” Climate action “cannot be divorced from energy-related issues in Uganda.” For Moses Mulindwa, the plans also hinge on financial and technological support from developed countries.

Uganda’s nuclear plans

Uganda also plans the construction of its first nuclear power plant. As part of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) “milestone programme” this will require “a cumulative 6 billion US dollars from 2030 to 2040, and a further increase of 18 billion in the subsequent decade.” By 2050, the country wants to “expand its nuclear capacity to 5.9 GW” with the goal of supplying 20 percent of the country’s electricity.

Climate activist Mulindwa believes that Uganda’s nuclear program, which could involve cooperation with the Russian company Rosatom, must be carefully evaluated. The decision would depend on energy security, cost efficiency and environmental impact.

According to Mulindwa, “the financial aspects are crucial” for a potential cooperation with the Russian state-owned company Rosatom. “Nuclear projects often involve significant upfront costs, but they may offer long-term benefits in terms of consistent power generation.” However, “A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis should compare nuclear expenses with investments in renewable energy.”

EACOP oil pipeline as a contribution to the energy transition?

The country’s first oil production will also require significant investment from 2025: The ETP expects an annual requirement of one billion US dollars for oil and gas infrastructure between 2026 and 2030. This amount is expected to fall significantly once the Hoima oil refinery is completed.

For Mulindwa, the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) brings a complex dynamic to Uganda’s emissions reduction plan: “If the EACOP adheres to strict environmental standards, it can make a positive contribution by providing a reliable source of energy for the region while minimizing environmental impact.”

The EACOP is controversial among environmental and climate activists. The approximately 1,500-kilometer-long pipeline will connect the oil fields in the country’s west with the Tanga port in Tanzania. The project company is two-thirds owned by the French oil company Total Energies. The oil from the pipeline will produce around 380 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next 25 years. Reports suggest that the project will temporarily or permanently displace about 100,000 people from their homes. Protests are sometimes suppressed by the police.

Activist Moses Mulindwa warns: “However, if EACOP is not managed carefully, it could jeopardize Uganda’s emissions targets. The risks include land use conflicts, deforestation and water pollution.” Only strict regulations, environmental impact assessments and community involvement can “ensure that the pipeline is in line with Uganda’s broader sustainability goals.”

  • Climate financing
  • Climate policy
  • Energy transition
  • Entwaldung

Events

Feb. 16-18, Munich
Conference Munich Security Conference
This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Munich Security Conference. The intersection of climate and security also plays a role. Info

Feb. 17-18, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Summit meeting African Union Summit
Important African ministers and heads of state are meeting in Ethiopia to discuss the future and economic development of the continent. The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly important for the region’s economy. Info

Feb. 19, 9:30 a.m. CET, Online
Webinar The EU’s Carbon Management Strategy and the Path to 2040
Carbon capture and storage technologies play an important role in achieving the EU’s climate targets, increasing the competitiveness of industry and improving the resilience of its energy supply. Euractiv’s event will focus on the hurdles and challenges for the EU about CCS and CCUS. Info

Feb. 19-20
Working group meeting G20 1st Energy Transitions Working Group Meeting
Brazil holds this year’s G20 presidency. The Energy Transitions working group will meet for the first time in this cycle at the end of February. Info

Feb. 20-22 Essen
Trade fair E-World Energy & Water
The E-World Energy & Water trade fair brings together players from the European energy industry. The program includes climate-neutral energy networks. Info

Feb. 21-23, Nairobi, Kenya
Conference Climate and Clean Air Conference
The Climate and Clean Air Conference 2024 will bring together the CCAC’s 86 State Partners and 83 Non-State Partners to discuss the latest science and policy, share best practices, and develop a shared agenda in key emitting sectors like agriculture, waste, fossil fuels, household energy, heavy-duty vehicles and engines, and cooling. Info

Feb. 22, 4:30 p.m CET, Berlin
Discussion Energy security: How do we secure offshore infrastructure?
At the parliamentary evening at the British Embassy in Berlin, the German Federal Association of Offshore Wind Energy organizes various inputs and a discussion on energy security and wind power infrastructure. Info

News

Climate in Numbers: A new hurricane category?

As the strength of hurricanes continues to increase with global warming, two US researchers have now proposed expanding the scale for assessing hurricanes. A category 6 should be considered beyond the current categories 1 to 5 on the so-called Saffir-Simpson scale, according to a study by Michael Wehner from the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab and James Kossin from the University of Wisconsin. The aim: A more precise identification of storm intensity and better ways of informing and warning the population.

The current scale dates back to the 1970s and categorizes hurricanes based on wind speeds. For example, a category 5 storm means wind speeds of over 250 km/h. Accordingly, a category 6 would start at around 310 km/h. Between 1980 and 2021, 197 category 5 tropical storms were recorded. Five of these would fall into category 6, all of them in the years 2012 to 2021.

The current scale is disputed. It only considers wind speeds and does not include flooding caused by ocean waves or rainstorms. However, significantly more people die from these extreme weather situations than from direct wind damage. It is also unclear whether a new category could give the impression that storms in the lower categories have become less dangerous than before. bpo

  • Klimawissenschaft

Climate scientists warn: The Atlantic current is approaching the tipping point

According to a new study, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is approaching a tipping point. In the study, researchers from Utrecht University warn of the devastating consequences of this event. The AMOC is an Atlantic overturning circulation that moves large masses of water. It brings large amounts of heat into the northern Atlantic and thus ensures a relatively mild climate in Europe and the US East Coast.

According to the study, a collapse of the AMOC would have serious consequences:

  • Winter temperatures in Northern Europe could fall by ten to 30 degrees within a century. “No realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes under an AMOC collapse,” the researchers write. However, climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf qualifies that the study did not simulate global warming. This means that the temperature drop would probably be lower.
  • Rainfall patterns in the Amazon rainforest would change significantly. The rainforest would probably exceed its tipping point.
  • Sea levels would rise by several decimeters in some regions. This would threaten the US coastal cities, for example.

Study by the leading global research center

Rahmstorf, Head of the Earth System Analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), describes the study in his blog as “a major advance in AMOC stability science.” In the past, studies have repeatedly warned of a possible tipping point for the AMOC. However, they were regularly criticized because, for example, they only focused on very specific aspects of the AMOC.

According to Rahmstorf, the new study is now the “first systematic attempt to find the AMOC tipping point in a coupled global ocean-atmosphere climate model of good spatial resolution.” It is not only based on climate models, but also “on observational data from the South Atlantic.”

‘Tipping point before the end of this century’

The Dutch research group sees the observation data as an early warning signal that the AMOC is already tipping over. Although they do not provide a specific date for the tipping point, they conclude that the event could occur before the end of this century. He criticizes that standard climate models underestimate the risk of an AMOC tipping point. nib

  • Klimawissenschaft

Tripling renewables: Five trillion US dollars missing

In order to triple renewable energies by 2030, as agreed at COP28, twelve trillion US dollars of investment will be required between 2024 and 2030. This is shown in a new study by Climate Analytics. Currently, investments of 6.6 trillion US dollars are foreseeable by 2030. There is an investment gap of a good five trillion. However, some six trillion US dollars will be invested in fossil fuels by 2030 – “shifting this investment to renewables and grids could fully close the investment gap,” the researchers write.

The necessary twelve trillion in investments include money for renewables (eight trillion) as well as for the expansion of power grids and storage (four trillion), all of which are essential for the success of the energy transition.

Asia is the only region on the right track

According to the think tank’s analysis, 11.5 terawatts (TW) of renewable capacity would have to be installed by 2030 to meet the 1.5-degree target – 3.4 times more than is currently available. The following picture emerges for the individual world regions:

  • At 3.8 TW, Asia would have to contribute the largest share of the expansion – 3.6 times more than was installed in 2022.
  • The OECD region would have to add 2.9 TW – 3.1 times more than was installed in 2022. “Based on current policies, the OECD will fall around a third short of this target,” the authors write.
  • The expansion in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and Eurasia must be between 240 and 460 gigawatts per region.

Due to the significant expansion in China and India, Asia is the only region in the world expanding renewables fast enough to keep the 1.5-degree target in reach. At the same time, however, the construction of new coal-fired power plants in the two countries jeopardizes compliance with the 1.5-degree target. The authors warn that “much more needs to be done to mobilize investment in renewables and grid expansion in less wealthy countries.” nib

  • China

Researchers warn of tipping point for the Amazon rainforest

A new study published in Nature concludes: By the middle of the century, ten to 47 percent of the Amazon rainforest will be at risk. Its authors warn that a tipping point could soon be reached.

Climate scientists have long been warning of this danger: As soon as the damage to the ecosystem reaches a critical threshold, the rainforest would tip over – in other words, it would change very quickly and extremely drastically. Through feedback effects, forest destruction in one place would lead to the forest dying elsewhere. Large areas would turn into savannah and rainfall would be disrupted in large parts of South America. However, the details are still controversial among scientists.

Warming, drought and deforestation endanger the rainforest

The new study now identified five critical factors that contribute to tipping:

  • global warming
  • annual precipitation
  • the intensity of seasonal changes in precipitation
  • the length of the dry season and
  • the ongoing deforestation.

For each factor, the researchers identify critical thresholds that must not be exceeded to maintain the ecosystem’s resilience. For example, “we found for example that for mean annual rainfall below 1000 mm per year, the Amazon rainforest cannot exist,” explains Da Nian, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and one of the study’s authors. Even below 1,800 mm per year, “abrupt transitions from rainforest to a Savanna-like vegetation become possible.”

The consequences for the global climate would be serious if the rainforest were to tip over. According to a study, the soils and plants of the rainforest store around 150 to 200 billion tons of carbon, the equivalent of about 550 to 734 billion tons of CO2. A considerable proportion of this would be gradually released once a tipping point is passed. ae

  • Amazonas

UN honors seven initiatives for the restoration of ecosystems

The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have awarded seven ecosystem restoration initiatives the title “World Restoration Flagships.” The initiatives have already restored millions of hectares of nature. By 2030, they are expected to restore a total of 40 million hectares and create half a million jobs.

The awards go to:

The UN has declared the decade 2021 to 2030 the “Decade of Ecosystem Restoration.” To this end, it has also defined ten principles for selecting flagship initiatives. The UN member states have set themselves the goal of restoring one billion hectares of nature by 2030 – an area larger than China. kul

  • Wald

Researchers recommend a minimum carbon price for ETS 2

The European Emissions Trading System for buildings and transport (ETS 2) will be introduced in 2027. Experts believe that linking it to a national minimum carbon price could stabilize the price level and thus improve predictability for private households and companies. This is according to a study by Green Budget Germany (GBG) and the Institute for Applied Ecology. The scientists examine how the German emissions trading system and ETS 2 could be merged after its introduction.

ETS 2 will be introduced separately from the existing EU emissions trading system for energy and industry and will form its own Europe-wide carbon price. The ETS 2 will replace existing national carbon prices for buildings and transport. However, the price in Germany’s carbon trading will already reach 65 euros per ton in 2026 and thus may be higher than the ETS 2 with an expected price of around 45 euros.

Revenue for social compensation

In order to prevent strong fluctuations in the carbon price, caused, for example, by political decisions from individual member states, the study authors recommend an additional national minimum price via the energy tax. If the ETS 2 market price is below this minimum price, there would be a price premium. If the EU-wide price is higher, there would be no surcharge. The study suggests that the minimum price should be at a level at which the national climate targets can be achieved.

However, the GBG and Institute for Applied Ecology have not provided an exact target price. Last year, the think tank Agora Energiewende recommended 120 euros per ton with a progressive annual increase.

GBG and the Institute for Applied Ecology also see the premium as an instrument for generating funds for social compensation – for example, for climate money. Although part of the revenue from ETS 2 goes to the Social Climate Fund, it is earmarked for a specific purpose and cannot be used for a general climate fund. A minimum price would, therefore, provide additional financial leeway. The authors of the study expressly call for the rapid introduction of climate money.

Purchase premium for used EVs

The scientists also emphasize that the minimum price should only be accompanied by appropriate compensation measures for middle and lower-income groups. Previous subsidy programs have mainly supported higher earners, for example when purchasing a new electric car. Therefore, they call for additional support programs for low and middle-income groups to help them reduce consumption and make the socio-ecological transformation a success. They cite a purchase premium for used EVs as an example. luk

  • Climate & Environment
  • Emissions trading

Research: Polar bears are unable to adapt to climate change

Due to the shrinking sea ice on Hudson Bay in Canada, more polar bears could starve to death in the future. If the bay is not frozen over long enough, polar bears will not have enough time to hunt seals on the ice. This is the result of a study published on Wednesday in Nature Communications. In 2015, the ice-free period in the region was already three weeks longer than in 1970.

The bears used different strategies to cope with the lack of pack ice: some simply lay down and hibernated, minimizing their energy consumption. Others looked for alternative food, such as berries or bird eggs. Both strategies promise little success. The time-consuming search for food meant that the polar bears consumed almost as much energy as they ate.

Polar bears and climate change: a debated issue

Polar bears can change their behavior considerably, but their risk of starvation increases as the ice recedes. Female polar bears and cubs are particularly vulnerable.

Polar bears have long symbolized how animals are threatened by climate change. However, the reality in the Arctic is somewhat more complicated: Until the 1980s, the number of polar bears had declined, mainly due to hunting. The number of animals subsequently increased again thanks to improved conservation and legal frameworks. Climate change deniers took this fact as an opportunity to question man-made climate change. However, this recent study confirms that polar bears are severely threatened by climate change in the medium and long term. kul

  • Eisschmelze

Sustainability council calls for German climate money by 2025

The German Council for Sustainable Development (RNE) demands the introduction of the climate money agreed in the government’s coalition agreement by next year at the latest. This is according to a statement published by the RNE on Monday. In addition, the Council calls for the creation of effective private and state financing options for the socio-ecological transformation in the short term.

This transformation will require considerable investments in long-lasting infrastructure. “It seems all the more important to us that we see the upcoming change as a joint task, distribute opportunities and burdens fairly, allay fears and leave no one behind,” the publication states. To achieve this, “we need to encourage and point out realistic solutions. We need a policy that considers the social consequences of the necessary changes from the very start and strikes a fair balance,” the RNE writes.

Fair and long-term solutions needed

Political decision-makers at the federal, state and local level have a responsibility to present socially just and long-term solutions for climate and biodiversity conservation, for the efficient and circular use of resources and a competitive, sustainable economy, the paper continues. The democratic opposition is also called upon to actively contribute constructive proposals.

The RNE is made up of 15 public figures from German civil society, business, science and politics. It is newly appointed by the Federal Government every three years. Since 2023, the Council has been chaired by Reiner Hoffmann, former president of the German Trade Union Confederation. ch

  • Nachhaltigkeit

Heads

Richard Nugee prepares the British military for climate change

Richard Nugee
Richard Nugee, retired Lieutenant General and Chief of Staff of the British Armed Forces, has written the UK’s first strategy for climate change and sustainability in the defense sector.

When former Lieutenant General and Chief of Defense People Richard Nugee, proposed a report on climate change and the army to the Ministry of Defense in 2020, his proposal was initially rejected. There was no need for it, they said.

Today, just four years later, things are different: When important representatives of governments, armed forces and other security institutions meet at the Munich Security Conference this weekend, the climate crisis will be present. Richard Nugee has made a significant contribution to this.

Climate adaptation benefits the defense

Back then, four years ago, Nugee didn’t let up. He eventually wrote the report. In it, he made clear how climate change will negatively affect the work of the military. For example, he describes how warships will no longer be able to rely on seawater for cooling because the ocean’s surface temperature is too high. He also explains how water shortages in countries such as Iraq or Somalia will lead to more conflicts.

Nugee’s report illustrates why an army that is prepared for climate change can better defend a country. This military perspective has helped the issue to be taken seriously, says Nugee. In the past, showing the military the extent of their emissions had too often provoked defensive responses.

Huge military missions

Because military greenhouse gas emissions are enormous. It is hard to tell how high exactly. At the beginning of the year, the Guardian found that many countries did not report their military emissions to the UN. However, there are estimates that the military accounts for around 5.5 percent of all global emissions, which is about twice as much as global aviation.

Richard Nugee also sees this aspect. However, he says this is not the right communication strategy to bring climate change closer to military representatives. The military is often convinced that climate action is an idea of left-wing anti-military circles. That is why he believes the best way to reach them is to explain how climate change affects security. “Climate change leads to conflict and threatens the security of the UK, Europe, NATO – and also the concept of Western democracy,” says Nugee.

Military strategies against climate change

He identified three strategies with which armies can respond to climate change.

  • First of all, it is important to create a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and security.
  • Furthermore, armed forces must adapt to the effects. Although it is part of the core mission of armies to prepare for different (weather) conditions, climate change is making them more and more extreme.
  • The military must also reduce its greenhouse gas emissions as far as possible towards net zero. To this end, one of Nugee’s recommendations is to operate 50 percent of military aircraft with sustainable fuels. However, the core task, i.e., defense, should not be lost sight of in all of this.

There has been progress regarding climate change and security, says Nugee today. Many military personnel are now aware of the impact of the climate crisis on their operations. But they often do not do enough to respond to it.

Private commitment to trees and medicine

His grandfather, who fought in both world wars, inspired him to pursue a military career. Richard Nugee served in numerous conflict zones during his long military career, including Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. From 2021 to 2022, he headed the Ministry of Defense Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach at the British Ministry of Defense. The 60-year-old is now retired but continues to work on climate issues, for example, with the research projectClimate change and (in)security” at the University of Oxford.

He lives in the South West of England with his wife and three dogs and has two adult sons. When he is not speaking at public events about the consequences of climate change for the military, he enjoys tending to nature right on his doorstep. He has planted around 1,000 trees on his land. He raises a few dozen more in his own small tree nursery. “It gives me enormous pleasure to watch the trees grow,” he says. His charity organization, “The Scar Free Foundation,” also supports research into healing wounds without scars. Lisa Kuner

Climate.Table editorial team

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    For a long time, the German coal phase-out came under suspicion: Carbon credits from decommissioned coal-fired power plants could potentially be used for emissions elsewhere in Europe. We have investigated how the German government intends to prevent this “waterbed effect.” This week’s Climate.Table looks at Uganda and its ambitious targets as another example of how the energy transition and genuine climate action can work in other countries.

    But there is also this news: Hurricanes have become so destructive that researchers propose a new way of calculating their wind speeds. And the Atlantic current and the Amazon rainforest appear to be approaching their dangerous tipping points.

    Because all this is so much and so important, we aim to keep you even better informed: Starting next week, you will receive Climate.Table twice a week: On Tuesday and, as usual, on Thursday. That means you will receive analyses, background information, news, charts, interviews, opinions and profiles on climate issues in Germany, Europe and worldwide twice a week.

    We are looking forward to providing you with even more important news. Stay tuned for more!

    Your
    Bernhard Pötter
    Image of Bernhard  Pötter

    Feature

    Coal exit: Germany deletes all carbon credits

    Decommissioned: Voerde coal-fired power plant near Dinslaken.

    Germany is removing all carbon credits from the market that are no longer being used by power plants after they have been decommissioned following the country’s coal exit. These credits are now temporarily stored in the EU Emissions Trading System’s “Market Stability Reserve” (MSR). According to the German government, however, they will no longer return to the market. This means they cannot be used elsewhere in Europe’s carbon trading system. The German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) has confirmed this to Table.Media.

    Government refutes accusations against climate policy

    One year after the conflict surrounding the evacuation of the village of Lützerath and the compromise on an early coal phase-out in the Rhineland coalfield, this move by the German government also aims to counter political accusations against the effectiveness of its climate policy. This is because the so-called “waterbed effect” in the European emissions trading system means that carbon credits not used in one country could be used elsewhere for carbon emissions. This was the impression given by German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) in November. He questioned the 2030 coal phase-out and explained: “This date won’t do anything for the climate anyway, as the carbon emissions saved in Germany may also be incurred in Poland, for example, due to European regulations.” That is now ruled out.

    This is because even in the unlikely event that the credits return to the market from the MSR at some point, Germany has requested the EU to delete them at the end of 2023. “In this way, national deletion prevents a waterbed effect,” explained a ministry spokesperson. The ministry led by the Green Party had already announced a year ago that it would ensure that the credits from the phase-out would disappear from the market.

    Germany forgoes money for the climate fund

    At the same time, the German government forgoes revenue by permanently retiring these credits. Depending on the number of credits and their price at current auctions, the credits would otherwise flush money into Germany’s Climate and Transformation Fund. The exact amount is unclear. In 2022, 6.8 billion euros from all auctioned credits flowed from the ETS into the fund. Following the Constitutional Court’s ruling from November 15, the fund is about 60 billion short for the coming years.

    According to the BMWK, German power plants with a total capacity of 414 MW were decommissioned in 2022 as part of the German coal exit. According to a Green Budget Germany (GBG) study commissioned by the green electricity operator Green Planet Energy, eight hard coal-fired power plant units and six lignite-fired power plant units with a total capacity of around 6.5 GW were shut down in 2021.

    Long uncertain: How many credits will be deleted?

    It is disputed how many carbon allowances have to be deleted after the decommissioning of the plants. The EU and Germany used different calculation methods for a long time, and the deletion criteria were unclear. The EU calculates a power plant’s carbon emissions using an average value from the last five years. Germany, on the other hand, calculated how much carbon dioxide the atmosphere would actually be saved by decommissioning and applied this amount.

    Because the EU and Germany disagreed on a calculation method, Germany was unable to have its credits deleted by the EU for 2021 after the coal exit. An agreement has now been reached and Germany has adopted the EU criteria. And according to the BMWK, the credits freed up in 2021 will not be available to the market, but will instead be stored in the MSR and deleted later.

    The MSR is intended to serve as a backup buffer in the ETS if credits become unexpectedly scarce and prices rise rapidly. If fewer than 400 million credits are on the market, additional credits can flow back into the market from the MSR. However, if more than 400 million credits are in the MSR, they are automatically and permanently deleted – and this MSR sum has currently grown to around 1.1 billion, meaning that deletion is practically certain. According to the German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt), Germany receives 92 million carbon credits annually from the EU. In 2022, Germany received a total of 6.8 billion euros from auctioning these credits.

    Criticism: Ten billion in revenue, 23 billion in climate damage

    According to the GBG calculation, the 14 power plant units decommissioned in 2021 emitted around 118 million tons of CO2 between 2016 and 2020. The report criticizes that deleting these credits, which was impossible in 2021 due to the disagreements between Germany and the EU, would have reduced all EU credits by this amount. However, the BMWK states that they have been placed in the MSR and will be deleted later.

    According to the GBG, Germany generated a total of 9.6 billion euros by auctioning these credits. However, this contrasts climate-related damages of 23.3 billion euros, which, according to calculations, were caused by the additional 118 million tons. However, due to the complex MSR calculation methods, the BMWK does not consider the “pure emission volumes of the decommissioned power plants to be a viable reference point for estimating any auction revenues.”

    • Coal phase-out
    • Emissions trading
    • EU

    Uganda’s energy transition: renewables, oil, nuclear and foreign support

    Installation of a rooftop solar system on a house in Kaabong Karamoja, Uganda.

    Uganda has joined other African countries like Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya to launch an energy transition plan (ETP). The plan unveiled at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, sets out an ambitious yet feasible pathway to achieve universal energy access by the end of the decade and a peak in emissions by 2040

    However, the plan’s success depends on many variables. For example, on whether the state and foreign donors raise enough money for the annual investments of eight billion US dollars. Another decisive factor will be whether the government and authorities plan effectively and how major energy projects are implemented. These include, for example, the development of a nuclear industry with Russian help or the realization of the controversial EACOP oil pipeline.

    Target: net zero in the energy sector by 2065

    According to the ETP and the national climate plan NDC, Uganda’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions will reach around 20 million tons by 2030 and about 23 million tons of CO2 equivalents by 2040 in the best-case scenario – and with foreign help. “In a scenario where Uganda did not take further action, energy-sector emissions would reach 30 Mt CO2-eq in 2030 and would not be on course to peak even in 2050.” 

    Uganda’s new plan sets out a robust pathway to meet economic growth and development objectives in a secure, affordable and sustainable way. The report noted Uganda will be able to reach net zero emissions from its energy sector by 2065.  

    The country’s growth and development also depend on the increasing utilization of modern energies. Electricity consumption is expected to grow by 14 percent per year. It is expected to climb from just under 80 kWh per capita today to around 1,750 kWh per capita in 2050, which is higher than the current level in Egypt. The demand for oil is expected to triple due to traffic growth.

    However, Ugandan oil production and a refinery in Hoima in Western Uganda are only expected to cover part of this demand. Crude oil production is expected to peak at around 230,000 barrels per day by the end of this decade. Consequently, demand will stay higher than production and Uganda will continue to depend on fuel imports.

    Uganda’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, said the plan marks a huge step forward in the country’s efforts to ensure every person in Uganda has access to secure, affordable and sustainable energy. However, the ETP also states that “we remain energy poor, have little access to electricity and clean cooking facilities and are among the countries with the lowest per capita consumption of modern energy in the world.” Around 90 percent of Uganda’s energy needs are still covered by solid biomass such as wood and charcoal. This is not sustainable, nor is it an option to fuel future growth in Uganda,” the report states.   

    How realistic is the plan?

    For Richard Kimbowa, Programme Manager of the Uganda Coalition for Sustainable Development, “The key question here is how the Government is committed to the attainment of a renewable energy future in the long run.” A “steady allocation of public finance alongside private inflows” is needed to meet the renewables targets by 2050. “The purchasing power of households remains very low.” Large revenues from electricity are not to be expected.

    Climate activist Moses Mulindwa told Table.Media that the plan’s success also depends on its “adaptability.” Climate change “is dynamic, and a robust strategy should include contingencies for unforeseen challenges.” Another critical factor is the involvement of the public and interest groups. “Transparency in reporting and monitoring mechanisms is vital for accountability,” said Mulindwa. “Collaborations with international experts and organizations can further enhance the plan’s credibility, fostering an environment of shared knowledge and expertise.”

    According to the ETP, “strong partnerships” are also officially the key to realizing the plan. The goal of net-zero emissions by 2065 will require annual investments in clean energy of eight billion US dollars. Uganda also requires yearly investments of around 850 million US dollars by 2030 to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals of “universal access to electricity” and “clean cooking.” This will require many sources of funding. Richard Kimbowa considers the realization of large parts of the ETP and NDC dependent “on international support.” Climate action “cannot be divorced from energy-related issues in Uganda.” For Moses Mulindwa, the plans also hinge on financial and technological support from developed countries.

    Uganda’s nuclear plans

    Uganda also plans the construction of its first nuclear power plant. As part of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) “milestone programme” this will require “a cumulative 6 billion US dollars from 2030 to 2040, and a further increase of 18 billion in the subsequent decade.” By 2050, the country wants to “expand its nuclear capacity to 5.9 GW” with the goal of supplying 20 percent of the country’s electricity.

    Climate activist Mulindwa believes that Uganda’s nuclear program, which could involve cooperation with the Russian company Rosatom, must be carefully evaluated. The decision would depend on energy security, cost efficiency and environmental impact.

    According to Mulindwa, “the financial aspects are crucial” for a potential cooperation with the Russian state-owned company Rosatom. “Nuclear projects often involve significant upfront costs, but they may offer long-term benefits in terms of consistent power generation.” However, “A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis should compare nuclear expenses with investments in renewable energy.”

    EACOP oil pipeline as a contribution to the energy transition?

    The country’s first oil production will also require significant investment from 2025: The ETP expects an annual requirement of one billion US dollars for oil and gas infrastructure between 2026 and 2030. This amount is expected to fall significantly once the Hoima oil refinery is completed.

    For Mulindwa, the planned East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) brings a complex dynamic to Uganda’s emissions reduction plan: “If the EACOP adheres to strict environmental standards, it can make a positive contribution by providing a reliable source of energy for the region while minimizing environmental impact.”

    The EACOP is controversial among environmental and climate activists. The approximately 1,500-kilometer-long pipeline will connect the oil fields in the country’s west with the Tanga port in Tanzania. The project company is two-thirds owned by the French oil company Total Energies. The oil from the pipeline will produce around 380 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the next 25 years. Reports suggest that the project will temporarily or permanently displace about 100,000 people from their homes. Protests are sometimes suppressed by the police.

    Activist Moses Mulindwa warns: “However, if EACOP is not managed carefully, it could jeopardize Uganda’s emissions targets. The risks include land use conflicts, deforestation and water pollution.” Only strict regulations, environmental impact assessments and community involvement can “ensure that the pipeline is in line with Uganda’s broader sustainability goals.”

    • Climate financing
    • Climate policy
    • Energy transition
    • Entwaldung

    Events

    Feb. 16-18, Munich
    Conference Munich Security Conference
    This year marks the 60th anniversary of the Munich Security Conference. The intersection of climate and security also plays a role. Info

    Feb. 17-18, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
    Summit meeting African Union Summit
    Important African ministers and heads of state are meeting in Ethiopia to discuss the future and economic development of the continent. The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly important for the region’s economy. Info

    Feb. 19, 9:30 a.m. CET, Online
    Webinar The EU’s Carbon Management Strategy and the Path to 2040
    Carbon capture and storage technologies play an important role in achieving the EU’s climate targets, increasing the competitiveness of industry and improving the resilience of its energy supply. Euractiv’s event will focus on the hurdles and challenges for the EU about CCS and CCUS. Info

    Feb. 19-20
    Working group meeting G20 1st Energy Transitions Working Group Meeting
    Brazil holds this year’s G20 presidency. The Energy Transitions working group will meet for the first time in this cycle at the end of February. Info

    Feb. 20-22 Essen
    Trade fair E-World Energy & Water
    The E-World Energy & Water trade fair brings together players from the European energy industry. The program includes climate-neutral energy networks. Info

    Feb. 21-23, Nairobi, Kenya
    Conference Climate and Clean Air Conference
    The Climate and Clean Air Conference 2024 will bring together the CCAC’s 86 State Partners and 83 Non-State Partners to discuss the latest science and policy, share best practices, and develop a shared agenda in key emitting sectors like agriculture, waste, fossil fuels, household energy, heavy-duty vehicles and engines, and cooling. Info

    Feb. 22, 4:30 p.m CET, Berlin
    Discussion Energy security: How do we secure offshore infrastructure?
    At the parliamentary evening at the British Embassy in Berlin, the German Federal Association of Offshore Wind Energy organizes various inputs and a discussion on energy security and wind power infrastructure. Info

    News

    Climate in Numbers: A new hurricane category?

    As the strength of hurricanes continues to increase with global warming, two US researchers have now proposed expanding the scale for assessing hurricanes. A category 6 should be considered beyond the current categories 1 to 5 on the so-called Saffir-Simpson scale, according to a study by Michael Wehner from the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab and James Kossin from the University of Wisconsin. The aim: A more precise identification of storm intensity and better ways of informing and warning the population.

    The current scale dates back to the 1970s and categorizes hurricanes based on wind speeds. For example, a category 5 storm means wind speeds of over 250 km/h. Accordingly, a category 6 would start at around 310 km/h. Between 1980 and 2021, 197 category 5 tropical storms were recorded. Five of these would fall into category 6, all of them in the years 2012 to 2021.

    The current scale is disputed. It only considers wind speeds and does not include flooding caused by ocean waves or rainstorms. However, significantly more people die from these extreme weather situations than from direct wind damage. It is also unclear whether a new category could give the impression that storms in the lower categories have become less dangerous than before. bpo

    • Klimawissenschaft

    Climate scientists warn: The Atlantic current is approaching the tipping point

    According to a new study, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is approaching a tipping point. In the study, researchers from Utrecht University warn of the devastating consequences of this event. The AMOC is an Atlantic overturning circulation that moves large masses of water. It brings large amounts of heat into the northern Atlantic and thus ensures a relatively mild climate in Europe and the US East Coast.

    According to the study, a collapse of the AMOC would have serious consequences:

    • Winter temperatures in Northern Europe could fall by ten to 30 degrees within a century. “No realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes under an AMOC collapse,” the researchers write. However, climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf qualifies that the study did not simulate global warming. This means that the temperature drop would probably be lower.
    • Rainfall patterns in the Amazon rainforest would change significantly. The rainforest would probably exceed its tipping point.
    • Sea levels would rise by several decimeters in some regions. This would threaten the US coastal cities, for example.

    Study by the leading global research center

    Rahmstorf, Head of the Earth System Analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), describes the study in his blog as “a major advance in AMOC stability science.” In the past, studies have repeatedly warned of a possible tipping point for the AMOC. However, they were regularly criticized because, for example, they only focused on very specific aspects of the AMOC.

    According to Rahmstorf, the new study is now the “first systematic attempt to find the AMOC tipping point in a coupled global ocean-atmosphere climate model of good spatial resolution.” It is not only based on climate models, but also “on observational data from the South Atlantic.”

    ‘Tipping point before the end of this century’

    The Dutch research group sees the observation data as an early warning signal that the AMOC is already tipping over. Although they do not provide a specific date for the tipping point, they conclude that the event could occur before the end of this century. He criticizes that standard climate models underestimate the risk of an AMOC tipping point. nib

    • Klimawissenschaft

    Tripling renewables: Five trillion US dollars missing

    In order to triple renewable energies by 2030, as agreed at COP28, twelve trillion US dollars of investment will be required between 2024 and 2030. This is shown in a new study by Climate Analytics. Currently, investments of 6.6 trillion US dollars are foreseeable by 2030. There is an investment gap of a good five trillion. However, some six trillion US dollars will be invested in fossil fuels by 2030 – “shifting this investment to renewables and grids could fully close the investment gap,” the researchers write.

    The necessary twelve trillion in investments include money for renewables (eight trillion) as well as for the expansion of power grids and storage (four trillion), all of which are essential for the success of the energy transition.

    Asia is the only region on the right track

    According to the think tank’s analysis, 11.5 terawatts (TW) of renewable capacity would have to be installed by 2030 to meet the 1.5-degree target – 3.4 times more than is currently available. The following picture emerges for the individual world regions:

    • At 3.8 TW, Asia would have to contribute the largest share of the expansion – 3.6 times more than was installed in 2022.
    • The OECD region would have to add 2.9 TW – 3.1 times more than was installed in 2022. “Based on current policies, the OECD will fall around a third short of this target,” the authors write.
    • The expansion in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and Eurasia must be between 240 and 460 gigawatts per region.

    Due to the significant expansion in China and India, Asia is the only region in the world expanding renewables fast enough to keep the 1.5-degree target in reach. At the same time, however, the construction of new coal-fired power plants in the two countries jeopardizes compliance with the 1.5-degree target. The authors warn that “much more needs to be done to mobilize investment in renewables and grid expansion in less wealthy countries.” nib

    • China

    Researchers warn of tipping point for the Amazon rainforest

    A new study published in Nature concludes: By the middle of the century, ten to 47 percent of the Amazon rainforest will be at risk. Its authors warn that a tipping point could soon be reached.

    Climate scientists have long been warning of this danger: As soon as the damage to the ecosystem reaches a critical threshold, the rainforest would tip over – in other words, it would change very quickly and extremely drastically. Through feedback effects, forest destruction in one place would lead to the forest dying elsewhere. Large areas would turn into savannah and rainfall would be disrupted in large parts of South America. However, the details are still controversial among scientists.

    Warming, drought and deforestation endanger the rainforest

    The new study now identified five critical factors that contribute to tipping:

    • global warming
    • annual precipitation
    • the intensity of seasonal changes in precipitation
    • the length of the dry season and
    • the ongoing deforestation.

    For each factor, the researchers identify critical thresholds that must not be exceeded to maintain the ecosystem’s resilience. For example, “we found for example that for mean annual rainfall below 1000 mm per year, the Amazon rainforest cannot exist,” explains Da Nian, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and one of the study’s authors. Even below 1,800 mm per year, “abrupt transitions from rainforest to a Savanna-like vegetation become possible.”

    The consequences for the global climate would be serious if the rainforest were to tip over. According to a study, the soils and plants of the rainforest store around 150 to 200 billion tons of carbon, the equivalent of about 550 to 734 billion tons of CO2. A considerable proportion of this would be gradually released once a tipping point is passed. ae

    • Amazonas

    UN honors seven initiatives for the restoration of ecosystems

    The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) have awarded seven ecosystem restoration initiatives the title “World Restoration Flagships.” The initiatives have already restored millions of hectares of nature. By 2030, they are expected to restore a total of 40 million hectares and create half a million jobs.

    The awards go to:

    The UN has declared the decade 2021 to 2030 the “Decade of Ecosystem Restoration.” To this end, it has also defined ten principles for selecting flagship initiatives. The UN member states have set themselves the goal of restoring one billion hectares of nature by 2030 – an area larger than China. kul

    • Wald

    Researchers recommend a minimum carbon price for ETS 2

    The European Emissions Trading System for buildings and transport (ETS 2) will be introduced in 2027. Experts believe that linking it to a national minimum carbon price could stabilize the price level and thus improve predictability for private households and companies. This is according to a study by Green Budget Germany (GBG) and the Institute for Applied Ecology. The scientists examine how the German emissions trading system and ETS 2 could be merged after its introduction.

    ETS 2 will be introduced separately from the existing EU emissions trading system for energy and industry and will form its own Europe-wide carbon price. The ETS 2 will replace existing national carbon prices for buildings and transport. However, the price in Germany’s carbon trading will already reach 65 euros per ton in 2026 and thus may be higher than the ETS 2 with an expected price of around 45 euros.

    Revenue for social compensation

    In order to prevent strong fluctuations in the carbon price, caused, for example, by political decisions from individual member states, the study authors recommend an additional national minimum price via the energy tax. If the ETS 2 market price is below this minimum price, there would be a price premium. If the EU-wide price is higher, there would be no surcharge. The study suggests that the minimum price should be at a level at which the national climate targets can be achieved.

    However, the GBG and Institute for Applied Ecology have not provided an exact target price. Last year, the think tank Agora Energiewende recommended 120 euros per ton with a progressive annual increase.

    GBG and the Institute for Applied Ecology also see the premium as an instrument for generating funds for social compensation – for example, for climate money. Although part of the revenue from ETS 2 goes to the Social Climate Fund, it is earmarked for a specific purpose and cannot be used for a general climate fund. A minimum price would, therefore, provide additional financial leeway. The authors of the study expressly call for the rapid introduction of climate money.

    Purchase premium for used EVs

    The scientists also emphasize that the minimum price should only be accompanied by appropriate compensation measures for middle and lower-income groups. Previous subsidy programs have mainly supported higher earners, for example when purchasing a new electric car. Therefore, they call for additional support programs for low and middle-income groups to help them reduce consumption and make the socio-ecological transformation a success. They cite a purchase premium for used EVs as an example. luk

    • Climate & Environment
    • Emissions trading

    Research: Polar bears are unable to adapt to climate change

    Due to the shrinking sea ice on Hudson Bay in Canada, more polar bears could starve to death in the future. If the bay is not frozen over long enough, polar bears will not have enough time to hunt seals on the ice. This is the result of a study published on Wednesday in Nature Communications. In 2015, the ice-free period in the region was already three weeks longer than in 1970.

    The bears used different strategies to cope with the lack of pack ice: some simply lay down and hibernated, minimizing their energy consumption. Others looked for alternative food, such as berries or bird eggs. Both strategies promise little success. The time-consuming search for food meant that the polar bears consumed almost as much energy as they ate.

    Polar bears and climate change: a debated issue

    Polar bears can change their behavior considerably, but their risk of starvation increases as the ice recedes. Female polar bears and cubs are particularly vulnerable.

    Polar bears have long symbolized how animals are threatened by climate change. However, the reality in the Arctic is somewhat more complicated: Until the 1980s, the number of polar bears had declined, mainly due to hunting. The number of animals subsequently increased again thanks to improved conservation and legal frameworks. Climate change deniers took this fact as an opportunity to question man-made climate change. However, this recent study confirms that polar bears are severely threatened by climate change in the medium and long term. kul

    • Eisschmelze

    Sustainability council calls for German climate money by 2025

    The German Council for Sustainable Development (RNE) demands the introduction of the climate money agreed in the government’s coalition agreement by next year at the latest. This is according to a statement published by the RNE on Monday. In addition, the Council calls for the creation of effective private and state financing options for the socio-ecological transformation in the short term.

    This transformation will require considerable investments in long-lasting infrastructure. “It seems all the more important to us that we see the upcoming change as a joint task, distribute opportunities and burdens fairly, allay fears and leave no one behind,” the publication states. To achieve this, “we need to encourage and point out realistic solutions. We need a policy that considers the social consequences of the necessary changes from the very start and strikes a fair balance,” the RNE writes.

    Fair and long-term solutions needed

    Political decision-makers at the federal, state and local level have a responsibility to present socially just and long-term solutions for climate and biodiversity conservation, for the efficient and circular use of resources and a competitive, sustainable economy, the paper continues. The democratic opposition is also called upon to actively contribute constructive proposals.

    The RNE is made up of 15 public figures from German civil society, business, science and politics. It is newly appointed by the Federal Government every three years. Since 2023, the Council has been chaired by Reiner Hoffmann, former president of the German Trade Union Confederation. ch

    • Nachhaltigkeit

    Heads

    Richard Nugee prepares the British military for climate change

    Richard Nugee
    Richard Nugee, retired Lieutenant General and Chief of Staff of the British Armed Forces, has written the UK’s first strategy for climate change and sustainability in the defense sector.

    When former Lieutenant General and Chief of Defense People Richard Nugee, proposed a report on climate change and the army to the Ministry of Defense in 2020, his proposal was initially rejected. There was no need for it, they said.

    Today, just four years later, things are different: When important representatives of governments, armed forces and other security institutions meet at the Munich Security Conference this weekend, the climate crisis will be present. Richard Nugee has made a significant contribution to this.

    Climate adaptation benefits the defense

    Back then, four years ago, Nugee didn’t let up. He eventually wrote the report. In it, he made clear how climate change will negatively affect the work of the military. For example, he describes how warships will no longer be able to rely on seawater for cooling because the ocean’s surface temperature is too high. He also explains how water shortages in countries such as Iraq or Somalia will lead to more conflicts.

    Nugee’s report illustrates why an army that is prepared for climate change can better defend a country. This military perspective has helped the issue to be taken seriously, says Nugee. In the past, showing the military the extent of their emissions had too often provoked defensive responses.

    Huge military missions

    Because military greenhouse gas emissions are enormous. It is hard to tell how high exactly. At the beginning of the year, the Guardian found that many countries did not report their military emissions to the UN. However, there are estimates that the military accounts for around 5.5 percent of all global emissions, which is about twice as much as global aviation.

    Richard Nugee also sees this aspect. However, he says this is not the right communication strategy to bring climate change closer to military representatives. The military is often convinced that climate action is an idea of left-wing anti-military circles. That is why he believes the best way to reach them is to explain how climate change affects security. “Climate change leads to conflict and threatens the security of the UK, Europe, NATO – and also the concept of Western democracy,” says Nugee.

    Military strategies against climate change

    He identified three strategies with which armies can respond to climate change.

    • First of all, it is important to create a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and security.
    • Furthermore, armed forces must adapt to the effects. Although it is part of the core mission of armies to prepare for different (weather) conditions, climate change is making them more and more extreme.
    • The military must also reduce its greenhouse gas emissions as far as possible towards net zero. To this end, one of Nugee’s recommendations is to operate 50 percent of military aircraft with sustainable fuels. However, the core task, i.e., defense, should not be lost sight of in all of this.

    There has been progress regarding climate change and security, says Nugee today. Many military personnel are now aware of the impact of the climate crisis on their operations. But they often do not do enough to respond to it.

    Private commitment to trees and medicine

    His grandfather, who fought in both world wars, inspired him to pursue a military career. Richard Nugee served in numerous conflict zones during his long military career, including Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. From 2021 to 2022, he headed the Ministry of Defense Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach at the British Ministry of Defense. The 60-year-old is now retired but continues to work on climate issues, for example, with the research projectClimate change and (in)security” at the University of Oxford.

    He lives in the South West of England with his wife and three dogs and has two adult sons. When he is not speaking at public events about the consequences of climate change for the military, he enjoys tending to nature right on his doorstep. He has planted around 1,000 trees on his land. He raises a few dozen more in his own small tree nursery. “It gives me enormous pleasure to watch the trees grow,” he says. His charity organization, “The Scar Free Foundation,” also supports research into healing wounds without scars. Lisa Kuner

    Climate.Table editorial team

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