Sufficiency does not necessarily mean doing without something; it also means a more frugal use of resources and a fairer distribution. A discussion paper by the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) calls for a political and social debate on how civilization can become both more ecological and fairer. Alexandra Endres analyzes the SRU’s debate proposal.
Despite a record level of newly added renewables in 2023, we are far off course for the energy transition, IRENA declared in Berlin this week. Bernhard Pötter has looked at the International Renewable Energy Agency’s analysis and found that the rate of renewables expansion is lagging behind what is needed to achieve the renewable targets agreed in Dubai.
Germany is also not yet on track when it comes to the use of heat pumps. The rush for heat pump subsidies has not yet materialized. The German development bank KfW received around 8,000 applications in the first three weeks. Malte Kreutzfeldt explains why the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action still considers this figure a success.
The Leipzig Book Fair kicks off today. In parallel, there is also the Climate Book Fair. Along with non-fiction and children’s books, fictional climate literature is also presented there – climate fiction, also known as CliFi. Lisa Kuner explains how it can contribute to climate communication and how the progressing climate change has changed the genre.
Given the numerous ecological crises, the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) calls for a broad political and social debate on sufficiency – simply put, on the question: When do we have enough? In a discussion paper on the topic, which will be published on Thursday and was made available to Table.Briefings in advance, the Council also addresses aspects of justice and distribution.
A spokesperson for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment said: “Scientific contributions to the discussion, such as that of the SRU, can enrich and objectify the sufficiency debate.”
“Without avoiding waste, we will not achieve our climate targets,” Claudia Kemfert, Head of the Energy, Transport and Environment Department at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and Deputy Chair of the SRU, told Table.Briefings. “We need a more sufficient lifestyle.” This is not meant morally. “There are simply certain necessities that we must face. We need to talk about the things that jeopardize our survival.”
The Council does not want to tell people how to live their lives. According to the SRU, sufficiency-oriented policies require a political framework and must also be “co-designed and reinforced” by society.
The Advisory Council’s paper is relevant to climate and energy policy for three main reasons:
The Council argues that sustainable development is not possible without sufficiency. Regarding energy policy, the experts’ core argument is that the complete conversion of the economy towards renewable energy sources can be achieved more quickly, more easily and “considerably” more cost-effectively if electricity consumption does not continue to grow in parallel – and sufficiency can make a significant contribution to this. If there is less energy demand, emissions will also fall faster. As this requires less new infrastructure, forests and other areas can also be preserved, which would benefit the climate.
If land consumption is also slowed down through sufficiency strategies, for example, building more space-efficient can help better preserve important carbon sinks such as forests and moors. This helps protect the climate. Furthermore, ecosystems with high biodiversity that are as natural and healthy as possible are more resilient to the effects of the climate crisis. Mostly untouched landscapes, for example, along rivers, are also needed to absorb floods after extreme rainfall.
The scientists write that competition for land in Germany is already high. However, “both globally and in Germany,” more natural areas are needed to preserve biodiversity and protect the climate. The SRU refers to biodiversity targets to which the German government has also committed itself; for example, the Kunming-Montreal Agreement stipulates that 30 percent of degraded global ecosystems must be restored and 30 percent of all land and water areas must be placed under nature conservation.
The researchers deliberately refrain from making specific recommendations for a “strategy of enough” in their paper. They understand that the topic is complex and politically delicate. But they firmly state that it is high time to start the debate – in politics and society. “Everyone knows that things can’t go on like this,” says Kemfert.
“We are living above our ecological means,” says SRU member Wolfgang Lucht, head of the Earth System Analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “But we like to avoid discussing how our civilization can become both more ecological and fairer – because it raises difficult questions that we should not avoid.”
Last week, the German Ethics Council also urged that the burdens and obligations in the fight against climate change be distributed so that “as many people as possible can achieve the minimum requirements for a good and prosperous life now and in the future.”
The SRU’s discussion paper is based on two points:
With these two points, the Council explicitly refers to Germany’s sustainable development strategy, in which the planetary boundaries and the orientation towards a life in dignity for all are named as “absolute guidelines for political decisions.”
Efficiency gains, using greener resources, and technological progress alone are not enough to overcome the ecological crises. The SRU also writes in its paper that sufficiency is an essential complementary strategy. For example, innovation and technical solutions are “indispensable” in order to stop the steady increase in energy and resource consumption. However, “that the transition to sustainability can be realized through innovation and technology alone is a hypothesis for which there is insufficient evidence – on the contrary, there are many arguments against it.”
The Council assesses market-based instruments similarly: Although they “make a valuable contribution,” they “cannot be the sole control instrument.”
The researchers expect that efforts to achieve greater sufficiency will be met with resistance from society. This is another aspect they address in their discussion paper.
According to earth system scientist Lucht, it is part of the essence of democracy “that we dare to accept scientific insights even when they are uncomfortable.” He is counting on a learning process for society as a whole, which will ultimately result in a sufficient way of life being just as natural as the welfare state and voting rights for all are today. “A hundred years ago, that also seemed utopian. But today, it is a reality in our country.”
Three months after the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai (COP28), it is now becoming clear how the ambitious targets for the global expansion of renewable energies are to be realized. Representatives from business, politics, associations and non-governmental organizations have made proposals on how to triple the global capacity of renewables by 2030, as envisaged in the COP resolution. Many of these ideas were formulated and debated at this week’s Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue (BETD).
The COP resolution to triple global renewable capacities and double energy efficiency by 2030 was prepared at last year’s BETD 2023. However, this target has loopholes, criticized Rana Adib, Executive Director of the renewable energy network REN21, at Table.Briefings:
At the conference, it was said that BETD 2024 offered the opportunity to discuss solutions for the massively accelerated expansion of renewables. It is a “true implementation event,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, whose Federal Foreign Office hosted the conference for the tenth time.
Specifically, the ambitious goal is to be achieved in many ways:
A recent IRENA study shows how far the world is away from the Dubai targets. Despite a record in the construction of new renewable energy capacity in 2023, “progress in the energy transition is insufficient and its trajectory is markedly off course,” reads the study, which IRENA head Francesco La Camera presented at the conference.
“There is no time to lose and delay only makes the task bigger,” says La Camera. In 2023, just under 480 gigawatts of renewables were installed instead of the necessary 1,000 gigawatts. This means that more has to be achieved every year until 2030. The report states that significantly more effort is needed to achieve all of these targets. Most investments have been made in Europe, the USA and China. However, the expansion is also particularly necessary in Africa, where almost 600 million people still have no reliable access to electricity.
The report states that around two trillion US dollars were invested in the expansion of renewables in 2023. However, according to IRENA data, the rate of development is lagging behind what is needed to achieve the Dubai targets. It shows:
It is a figure that politicians and the industry have been eagerly anticipating: Now that the dispute over heat pumps and their subsidies in Germany has finally been resolved and applications for the installation of heat pumps can be submitted since late February, how high is the demand for green heating systems? The answer is now available: In the first three weeks, the responsible development bank KfW received around 8,000 applications, according to a statement from the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) on Tuesday in response to a question from Table.Briefings. Robert Habeck’s ministry considers them a success: “The subsidy has started with very good demand,” a spokesperson explained.
However, the BMWK and the German development bank KfW – as well as the industry – had actually hoped for a much stronger rush. After all, the market came to an almost complete standstill in the last quarter of 2023 as potential customers awaited the new subsidy conditions, which, in many cases, are better than the old ones. The pent-up demand should now be correspondingly high. And to achieve the German government’s announced target of 500,000 new heat pumps per year, the number of weekly applications would have to be more than three times as high as at launch.
However, the low figures at launch should not be over-interpreted. Two early indicators, which KfW also collects, show that interest is higher than the number of applications would suggest: The number of confirmations that technicians have to upload to KfW in advance before applying was around twice as high as the number of applications in the first few weeks; the number of new registrations in the KfW portal was even more than three times as high.
Moreover, only people who own and live in a single-family home have been able to apply so far. Owners of apartment buildings can apply for the subsidy from the end of May and landlords from the end of August. This means the number of subsidy applications will not be entirely conclusive until the summer.
Nevertheless, there is a certain disillusionment in the industry, which was briefed on the figures at a meeting at the BMWK on Wednesday. Compared to 2022, which saw 20,000 applications per month, the figure of 8,000 within three weeks is disappointing, Martin Sabel, Managing Director of the German Heat Pump Association, told Table.Briefings. “We probably won’t be able to sell the 500,000 heat pumps we had set ourselves this year.”
At the same time, the heating industry is currently in a state of upheaval: Whereas it was previously dominated by German family businesses such as Viessmann, Vaillant or Stiebel Eltron and local installation companies, the switch to heat pumps is bringing new players onto the market: On the manufacturer side, these are Asian companies such as Daikin, Panasonic and LG as well as Carrier from the USA, which recently acquired Viessmann’s heating division. In the installer sector, several nationwide providers such as Thermondo, Enpal, 1Komma5 and Octopus Energy have entered the business and are fighting for customers, in some cases with extensive marketing.
These companies, which tend to offer slightly cheaper services than local providers thanks to their size and standardization, are optimistic despite the moderate number of applications. “There was a lot of uncertainty, but now the figures are looking very good,” says Enpal spokesman Wolfgang Gründinger. Last year, the company installed just 1,000 heat pumps. In 2023, this figure is expected to increase significantly – including many customers who have already purchased an Enpal solar system in the past. “We aspire to become Germany’s largest heat pump provider this year,” says Gründinger.
This title is currently held by Thermondo, which entered the heat pump business almost two years ago and installed around 3,000 of them last year. The company says it is “quite satisfied” with the current order situation. The number of inquiries is currently 30 percent higher than in the 4th quarter of last year. When the application process began in February, CRO Felix Plog explained: “After the delay caused by the Building Energy Act, we have seen a sharp increase in interest in heat pumps among our customers since the start of the year.”
Octopus Energy also hopes for significant growth. The company, which has become one of the largest energy suppliers in the UK within just a few years and recently launched its comparatively inexpensive heat pump on the British market, entered the German heat pump business last year. “February was one of the strongest sales months,” Bastian Gierull, Head of Octopus Energy Germany, told Table.Briefings. “Many people were waiting for the launch of the subsidy,” adding that personnel remained the main bottleneck.
Suppliers and the ministry also have different views regarding the technical implementation of the funding. The BMWK emphasizes that the applications are processed immediately: “The applicants knew within minutes that their new heating system was eligible for subsidy,” explains a spokesperson. “This is made possible by the automated application processing, where longer processing times can only occur if the application requires clarification.”
From the industry’s point of view, however, the process could still be improved. While customers used to be able to pass the applications on to installers, they now have to do this themselves via the KfW online portal – which discourages some people. Enpal also reports a problem for pensioners: They often do not have to file a tax return and therefore do not have a tax statement showing their taxable income. However, this is necessary to receive the so-called income bonus, which increases the state subsidy to up to 70 percent of the purchase and installation costs.
Only customers whose household’s taxable income in each of the past two years was less than 40,000 euros are eligible for this bonus – which is often the case for pensioners, as a significant proportion of their pension is not taxable, especially in older age groups. Those with a higher income receive a 50 percent subsidy if the owner is living in a property with an oil or gas heating system that is at least 20 years old. The subsidy for newer heating systems or rented apartments is 30 percent; if the heat pump uses a climate-friendly refrigerant, the subsidy increases by 5 percent. The percentages apply to a maximum sum of 30,000 euros for single-family homes.
According to the BMWK, 124 million euros has been approved for the 8,000 applications received to date. This puts the average funding at 15,500 euros per heating system, indicating that most applicants will receive a 50-or 55 percent subsidy. The total amount of funding available this year is around 4 billion euros.
Industry sources say that one problem some customers face is that the subsidy will only be paid out after a delay: Customers applying now will not receive the money until September at the earliest. This means that even those with enough money to cover their share of the costs may have a financing gap if the bill is due before the state subsidy is paid. To close this gap, several large providers partner with banks to offer loans that customers can repay flexibly.
However, the industry is dependent on politicians to solve another problem: As gas prices have recently fallen much more sharply than electricity prices, the cost-effectiveness of heat pumps has decreased significantly compared to gas heating systems. Long-term calculations still show a financial advantage for heat pumps in most cases – but this only applies if the carbon price rises as expected and the mandatory blending of expensive biomethane for new gas heating systems is actually implemented. To improve economic efficiency and thus increase demand, the German Heat Pump Association and the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry are pushing to reduce the price of electricity for heat pumps by reducing taxes and levies on them.
The climate crisis is becoming increasingly important not only in politics and science but in culture as well. This is also evident at the Leipzig Book Fair this weekend: A Climate Book Fair is being held in Leipzig at the same time. Since 2021, the fair has been hosted by an association of the same name.
New non-fiction and children’s books on climate change are being presented, as well as climate as a theme in novels. That is important for literary scholar Julia Hoydis, who researches climate change narratives in cultural representations at the University of Klagenfurt. “Climate change communication has been unsuccessful for years. Literature can reach people differently and more emotionally,” Hoydis says.
However, she says literature is not a panacea for climate communication. A study published last year in the journal Environmental Communication showed that fictional stories about climate change do have an effect. In the short term, reading fiction about climate change increases both the belief that climate change is real and human-made, as well as awareness of the associated risks. However, this effect diminishes over time.
Literature that focuses on climate change is becoming increasingly popular. Climate fiction – known as CliFi – has exploded in the last ten years, says Hoydis. The CliFi genre is still relatively new, having been coined by reporter Dan Bloom in 2008. Hoydis believes it is important that the climate crisis is also reflected in literature: “Climate is not just a scientific topic, but a cultural one that has a lot to do with the way we live together,” she told Table.Briefings.
In her novel “Endling”, published last November, author Jasmin Schreiber also reflects on how our coexistence is changing. Her premise: The beech trees are becoming extinct, setting off a chain reaction with far-reaching consequences for nature and society. In 2041, abortions are banned, access to birth control is restricted and countries turn increasingly authoritarian. Schreiber says she describes a future “dystopia disguised as a utopia.”
Two of the novel’s protagonists are – like the author – natural scientists. However, the story revolves around a family instead of natural disasters. However, while working on the novel, Schreiber explains that she felt she finally had to address the elephant in the room and touch on species extinction and climate change.
She believes that literature negotiates social realities. It is also important to depict serious and important topics such as the climate crisis. However, Schreiber also emphasizes: “Literature is not a means to an end, fiction doesn’t have to be anything. But under certain circumstances, literature can convey the realities of the climate crisis without coming across as patronizing.”
Moreover, literature could also discuss aspects that have no place in science, says Schreiber. For example, how climate change’s consequences affect people’s lives. Literary scholar Hoydis adds that literature also has the opportunity to connect the scientific consequences of the climate crisis with topics such as class, love and justice through complex narratives. “Texts can complement scientific modeling with ethical questions and values,” she says.
However, Hoydis also sees a limit to the potential of climate communication through stories: They tend to reach people already interested in the topic, making them a very small target group. In recent years, however, there have also been stories that appeal to a larger audience. She cites the novel “The Ministry for the Future” by US author Kim Stanley Robinson and the Netflix film “Don’t look up”. Drugstore entrepreneur Dirk Roßmann also reached broader target groups with his Octopus trilogy.
Hoydis recommends the following realistic climate change novels:
As climate change has progressed since the 2000s, the narratives have also changed. “The texts have arrived in the present,” summarizes Hoydis. While the first CliFi novels were set in a distant, hypothetical future, they are now much closer to our reality. Some climate fiction is already set in the past. Instead of abstract, technical solutions to the climate crisis, the novels now focus more often on resilience, adaptation and how to live with climate change.
Paulina Hennig-Kloska was not even in office when she already felt the explosive power her new duties would bring. Hennig-Kloska, who has since been appointed Minister of Climate and the Environment, presented a legislative proposal with other MPs to facilitate the construction of new wind farms caused particular outrage by reducing the distance to residential buildings: According to the proposal, particularly quiet turbines can be built at a distance of 300 meters – 200 meters less than was promised during the election campaign.
The Law and Justice Party (PiS), which led the government until last year, accused Hennig-Kloska of promoting wind turbine industry lobby groups, particularly from Germany. Hennig-Kloska demanded an apology and threatened to sue a PiS MP for defamation. Some coalition politicians then doubted Hennig-Kloska’s suitability for the new office – but her party kept the 46-year-old. A little later, as a sworn-in minister, she admitted mistakes and changed some points. The revised wind farm law is now due to be passed in March at the latest.
Hennig-Kloska is not an activist. The political scientist from Gniezno, west of Warsaw, first worked as a radio journalist, was head of department at a local bank and, with her husband Artur Kloska, ran the company Borg, which specializes in office furnishings.
In 2015, she joined the Nowoczesna party and was unexpectedly elected to the national parliament, the Sejm. Because Borg won a public contract to furnish schools, critics spoke of corruption. However, they could not provide any proof – and the voters did not believe them either. Instead, they re-elected the MP twice since then.
In the spring of 2021, Hennig-Kloska then switched to the Poland 2050 party, which is now part of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s governing coalition, and became one of the most important politicians in the new party, which presents itself as conservative and down-to-earth. With the new party also came a new topic: She moved from the health portfolio to the energy and climate committee.
“It was then that I realized that the energy transition is the foundation of a future competitive economy,” she says, “and the carbon footprint will destroy our economy if we don’t do something about it.” When it comes to economic policy, she is a liberal, advocating tax cuts and supporting the privatization of state-owned companies, with the exception of the energy and defense sectors.
In her new office, she will now have to get up to speed quickly and tackle many challenges, as the previous PiS government completely neglected environmental policy. Poland still covers 63 percent of its electricity needs with coal, and the phase-out of fossil fuels is not planned before 2049. Now the ministry is to promote investment in renewable energy sources, wind turbines, photovoltaics and biomass plants, but also nuclear energy. The thermal modernization of buildings must also be tackled urgently to achieve savings targets.
Hennig-Kloska also hopes that the European Union will help finance all this. The “Clean Air” program, for example, under which old incinerators are to be replaced, was recently frozen due to a lack of funding, although around 50,000 people die every year as a result of smog. Hennig-Kloska now wants to mobilize EU funding from the European Funds for Infrastructure, Climate, and Environment (FENIKS). Poland will also apply for project funding from the EU’s Fit for 55 package.
At the same time, Hennig-Kloska wants to maintain a balance, including within her own government. In mid-January, it was her Green deputy Urszula Zielińska who demanded a fast transformation and called for the EU to reduce its carbon emissions by 90 percent by 2040. Paulina Hennig-Kloska quickly brought Zielińska back in line and explained that the statement was neither official nor coordinated with other departments.
All parties in the governing coalition agree that Poland must become climate-neutral. However, this will take time. Poland did not join an alliance of eleven countries, including Germany, which also called for more ambitious EU climate targets. After all, Hennig-Kloska also has to take her coalition partner, the farmers’ party PSL, into consideration. Which declared that it does not want to overburden citizens with the transformation. Andrzej Rybak
Sufficiency does not necessarily mean doing without something; it also means a more frugal use of resources and a fairer distribution. A discussion paper by the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) calls for a political and social debate on how civilization can become both more ecological and fairer. Alexandra Endres analyzes the SRU’s debate proposal.
Despite a record level of newly added renewables in 2023, we are far off course for the energy transition, IRENA declared in Berlin this week. Bernhard Pötter has looked at the International Renewable Energy Agency’s analysis and found that the rate of renewables expansion is lagging behind what is needed to achieve the renewable targets agreed in Dubai.
Germany is also not yet on track when it comes to the use of heat pumps. The rush for heat pump subsidies has not yet materialized. The German development bank KfW received around 8,000 applications in the first three weeks. Malte Kreutzfeldt explains why the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action still considers this figure a success.
The Leipzig Book Fair kicks off today. In parallel, there is also the Climate Book Fair. Along with non-fiction and children’s books, fictional climate literature is also presented there – climate fiction, also known as CliFi. Lisa Kuner explains how it can contribute to climate communication and how the progressing climate change has changed the genre.
Given the numerous ecological crises, the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) calls for a broad political and social debate on sufficiency – simply put, on the question: When do we have enough? In a discussion paper on the topic, which will be published on Thursday and was made available to Table.Briefings in advance, the Council also addresses aspects of justice and distribution.
A spokesperson for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment said: “Scientific contributions to the discussion, such as that of the SRU, can enrich and objectify the sufficiency debate.”
“Without avoiding waste, we will not achieve our climate targets,” Claudia Kemfert, Head of the Energy, Transport and Environment Department at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and Deputy Chair of the SRU, told Table.Briefings. “We need a more sufficient lifestyle.” This is not meant morally. “There are simply certain necessities that we must face. We need to talk about the things that jeopardize our survival.”
The Council does not want to tell people how to live their lives. According to the SRU, sufficiency-oriented policies require a political framework and must also be “co-designed and reinforced” by society.
The Advisory Council’s paper is relevant to climate and energy policy for three main reasons:
The Council argues that sustainable development is not possible without sufficiency. Regarding energy policy, the experts’ core argument is that the complete conversion of the economy towards renewable energy sources can be achieved more quickly, more easily and “considerably” more cost-effectively if electricity consumption does not continue to grow in parallel – and sufficiency can make a significant contribution to this. If there is less energy demand, emissions will also fall faster. As this requires less new infrastructure, forests and other areas can also be preserved, which would benefit the climate.
If land consumption is also slowed down through sufficiency strategies, for example, building more space-efficient can help better preserve important carbon sinks such as forests and moors. This helps protect the climate. Furthermore, ecosystems with high biodiversity that are as natural and healthy as possible are more resilient to the effects of the climate crisis. Mostly untouched landscapes, for example, along rivers, are also needed to absorb floods after extreme rainfall.
The scientists write that competition for land in Germany is already high. However, “both globally and in Germany,” more natural areas are needed to preserve biodiversity and protect the climate. The SRU refers to biodiversity targets to which the German government has also committed itself; for example, the Kunming-Montreal Agreement stipulates that 30 percent of degraded global ecosystems must be restored and 30 percent of all land and water areas must be placed under nature conservation.
The researchers deliberately refrain from making specific recommendations for a “strategy of enough” in their paper. They understand that the topic is complex and politically delicate. But they firmly state that it is high time to start the debate – in politics and society. “Everyone knows that things can’t go on like this,” says Kemfert.
“We are living above our ecological means,” says SRU member Wolfgang Lucht, head of the Earth System Analysis department at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). “But we like to avoid discussing how our civilization can become both more ecological and fairer – because it raises difficult questions that we should not avoid.”
Last week, the German Ethics Council also urged that the burdens and obligations in the fight against climate change be distributed so that “as many people as possible can achieve the minimum requirements for a good and prosperous life now and in the future.”
The SRU’s discussion paper is based on two points:
With these two points, the Council explicitly refers to Germany’s sustainable development strategy, in which the planetary boundaries and the orientation towards a life in dignity for all are named as “absolute guidelines for political decisions.”
Efficiency gains, using greener resources, and technological progress alone are not enough to overcome the ecological crises. The SRU also writes in its paper that sufficiency is an essential complementary strategy. For example, innovation and technical solutions are “indispensable” in order to stop the steady increase in energy and resource consumption. However, “that the transition to sustainability can be realized through innovation and technology alone is a hypothesis for which there is insufficient evidence – on the contrary, there are many arguments against it.”
The Council assesses market-based instruments similarly: Although they “make a valuable contribution,” they “cannot be the sole control instrument.”
The researchers expect that efforts to achieve greater sufficiency will be met with resistance from society. This is another aspect they address in their discussion paper.
According to earth system scientist Lucht, it is part of the essence of democracy “that we dare to accept scientific insights even when they are uncomfortable.” He is counting on a learning process for society as a whole, which will ultimately result in a sufficient way of life being just as natural as the welfare state and voting rights for all are today. “A hundred years ago, that also seemed utopian. But today, it is a reality in our country.”
Three months after the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai (COP28), it is now becoming clear how the ambitious targets for the global expansion of renewable energies are to be realized. Representatives from business, politics, associations and non-governmental organizations have made proposals on how to triple the global capacity of renewables by 2030, as envisaged in the COP resolution. Many of these ideas were formulated and debated at this week’s Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue (BETD).
The COP resolution to triple global renewable capacities and double energy efficiency by 2030 was prepared at last year’s BETD 2023. However, this target has loopholes, criticized Rana Adib, Executive Director of the renewable energy network REN21, at Table.Briefings:
At the conference, it was said that BETD 2024 offered the opportunity to discuss solutions for the massively accelerated expansion of renewables. It is a “true implementation event,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, whose Federal Foreign Office hosted the conference for the tenth time.
Specifically, the ambitious goal is to be achieved in many ways:
A recent IRENA study shows how far the world is away from the Dubai targets. Despite a record in the construction of new renewable energy capacity in 2023, “progress in the energy transition is insufficient and its trajectory is markedly off course,” reads the study, which IRENA head Francesco La Camera presented at the conference.
“There is no time to lose and delay only makes the task bigger,” says La Camera. In 2023, just under 480 gigawatts of renewables were installed instead of the necessary 1,000 gigawatts. This means that more has to be achieved every year until 2030. The report states that significantly more effort is needed to achieve all of these targets. Most investments have been made in Europe, the USA and China. However, the expansion is also particularly necessary in Africa, where almost 600 million people still have no reliable access to electricity.
The report states that around two trillion US dollars were invested in the expansion of renewables in 2023. However, according to IRENA data, the rate of development is lagging behind what is needed to achieve the Dubai targets. It shows:
It is a figure that politicians and the industry have been eagerly anticipating: Now that the dispute over heat pumps and their subsidies in Germany has finally been resolved and applications for the installation of heat pumps can be submitted since late February, how high is the demand for green heating systems? The answer is now available: In the first three weeks, the responsible development bank KfW received around 8,000 applications, according to a statement from the German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) on Tuesday in response to a question from Table.Briefings. Robert Habeck’s ministry considers them a success: “The subsidy has started with very good demand,” a spokesperson explained.
However, the BMWK and the German development bank KfW – as well as the industry – had actually hoped for a much stronger rush. After all, the market came to an almost complete standstill in the last quarter of 2023 as potential customers awaited the new subsidy conditions, which, in many cases, are better than the old ones. The pent-up demand should now be correspondingly high. And to achieve the German government’s announced target of 500,000 new heat pumps per year, the number of weekly applications would have to be more than three times as high as at launch.
However, the low figures at launch should not be over-interpreted. Two early indicators, which KfW also collects, show that interest is higher than the number of applications would suggest: The number of confirmations that technicians have to upload to KfW in advance before applying was around twice as high as the number of applications in the first few weeks; the number of new registrations in the KfW portal was even more than three times as high.
Moreover, only people who own and live in a single-family home have been able to apply so far. Owners of apartment buildings can apply for the subsidy from the end of May and landlords from the end of August. This means the number of subsidy applications will not be entirely conclusive until the summer.
Nevertheless, there is a certain disillusionment in the industry, which was briefed on the figures at a meeting at the BMWK on Wednesday. Compared to 2022, which saw 20,000 applications per month, the figure of 8,000 within three weeks is disappointing, Martin Sabel, Managing Director of the German Heat Pump Association, told Table.Briefings. “We probably won’t be able to sell the 500,000 heat pumps we had set ourselves this year.”
At the same time, the heating industry is currently in a state of upheaval: Whereas it was previously dominated by German family businesses such as Viessmann, Vaillant or Stiebel Eltron and local installation companies, the switch to heat pumps is bringing new players onto the market: On the manufacturer side, these are Asian companies such as Daikin, Panasonic and LG as well as Carrier from the USA, which recently acquired Viessmann’s heating division. In the installer sector, several nationwide providers such as Thermondo, Enpal, 1Komma5 and Octopus Energy have entered the business and are fighting for customers, in some cases with extensive marketing.
These companies, which tend to offer slightly cheaper services than local providers thanks to their size and standardization, are optimistic despite the moderate number of applications. “There was a lot of uncertainty, but now the figures are looking very good,” says Enpal spokesman Wolfgang Gründinger. Last year, the company installed just 1,000 heat pumps. In 2023, this figure is expected to increase significantly – including many customers who have already purchased an Enpal solar system in the past. “We aspire to become Germany’s largest heat pump provider this year,” says Gründinger.
This title is currently held by Thermondo, which entered the heat pump business almost two years ago and installed around 3,000 of them last year. The company says it is “quite satisfied” with the current order situation. The number of inquiries is currently 30 percent higher than in the 4th quarter of last year. When the application process began in February, CRO Felix Plog explained: “After the delay caused by the Building Energy Act, we have seen a sharp increase in interest in heat pumps among our customers since the start of the year.”
Octopus Energy also hopes for significant growth. The company, which has become one of the largest energy suppliers in the UK within just a few years and recently launched its comparatively inexpensive heat pump on the British market, entered the German heat pump business last year. “February was one of the strongest sales months,” Bastian Gierull, Head of Octopus Energy Germany, told Table.Briefings. “Many people were waiting for the launch of the subsidy,” adding that personnel remained the main bottleneck.
Suppliers and the ministry also have different views regarding the technical implementation of the funding. The BMWK emphasizes that the applications are processed immediately: “The applicants knew within minutes that their new heating system was eligible for subsidy,” explains a spokesperson. “This is made possible by the automated application processing, where longer processing times can only occur if the application requires clarification.”
From the industry’s point of view, however, the process could still be improved. While customers used to be able to pass the applications on to installers, they now have to do this themselves via the KfW online portal – which discourages some people. Enpal also reports a problem for pensioners: They often do not have to file a tax return and therefore do not have a tax statement showing their taxable income. However, this is necessary to receive the so-called income bonus, which increases the state subsidy to up to 70 percent of the purchase and installation costs.
Only customers whose household’s taxable income in each of the past two years was less than 40,000 euros are eligible for this bonus – which is often the case for pensioners, as a significant proportion of their pension is not taxable, especially in older age groups. Those with a higher income receive a 50 percent subsidy if the owner is living in a property with an oil or gas heating system that is at least 20 years old. The subsidy for newer heating systems or rented apartments is 30 percent; if the heat pump uses a climate-friendly refrigerant, the subsidy increases by 5 percent. The percentages apply to a maximum sum of 30,000 euros for single-family homes.
According to the BMWK, 124 million euros has been approved for the 8,000 applications received to date. This puts the average funding at 15,500 euros per heating system, indicating that most applicants will receive a 50-or 55 percent subsidy. The total amount of funding available this year is around 4 billion euros.
Industry sources say that one problem some customers face is that the subsidy will only be paid out after a delay: Customers applying now will not receive the money until September at the earliest. This means that even those with enough money to cover their share of the costs may have a financing gap if the bill is due before the state subsidy is paid. To close this gap, several large providers partner with banks to offer loans that customers can repay flexibly.
However, the industry is dependent on politicians to solve another problem: As gas prices have recently fallen much more sharply than electricity prices, the cost-effectiveness of heat pumps has decreased significantly compared to gas heating systems. Long-term calculations still show a financial advantage for heat pumps in most cases – but this only applies if the carbon price rises as expected and the mandatory blending of expensive biomethane for new gas heating systems is actually implemented. To improve economic efficiency and thus increase demand, the German Heat Pump Association and the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry are pushing to reduce the price of electricity for heat pumps by reducing taxes and levies on them.
The climate crisis is becoming increasingly important not only in politics and science but in culture as well. This is also evident at the Leipzig Book Fair this weekend: A Climate Book Fair is being held in Leipzig at the same time. Since 2021, the fair has been hosted by an association of the same name.
New non-fiction and children’s books on climate change are being presented, as well as climate as a theme in novels. That is important for literary scholar Julia Hoydis, who researches climate change narratives in cultural representations at the University of Klagenfurt. “Climate change communication has been unsuccessful for years. Literature can reach people differently and more emotionally,” Hoydis says.
However, she says literature is not a panacea for climate communication. A study published last year in the journal Environmental Communication showed that fictional stories about climate change do have an effect. In the short term, reading fiction about climate change increases both the belief that climate change is real and human-made, as well as awareness of the associated risks. However, this effect diminishes over time.
Literature that focuses on climate change is becoming increasingly popular. Climate fiction – known as CliFi – has exploded in the last ten years, says Hoydis. The CliFi genre is still relatively new, having been coined by reporter Dan Bloom in 2008. Hoydis believes it is important that the climate crisis is also reflected in literature: “Climate is not just a scientific topic, but a cultural one that has a lot to do with the way we live together,” she told Table.Briefings.
In her novel “Endling”, published last November, author Jasmin Schreiber also reflects on how our coexistence is changing. Her premise: The beech trees are becoming extinct, setting off a chain reaction with far-reaching consequences for nature and society. In 2041, abortions are banned, access to birth control is restricted and countries turn increasingly authoritarian. Schreiber says she describes a future “dystopia disguised as a utopia.”
Two of the novel’s protagonists are – like the author – natural scientists. However, the story revolves around a family instead of natural disasters. However, while working on the novel, Schreiber explains that she felt she finally had to address the elephant in the room and touch on species extinction and climate change.
She believes that literature negotiates social realities. It is also important to depict serious and important topics such as the climate crisis. However, Schreiber also emphasizes: “Literature is not a means to an end, fiction doesn’t have to be anything. But under certain circumstances, literature can convey the realities of the climate crisis without coming across as patronizing.”
Moreover, literature could also discuss aspects that have no place in science, says Schreiber. For example, how climate change’s consequences affect people’s lives. Literary scholar Hoydis adds that literature also has the opportunity to connect the scientific consequences of the climate crisis with topics such as class, love and justice through complex narratives. “Texts can complement scientific modeling with ethical questions and values,” she says.
However, Hoydis also sees a limit to the potential of climate communication through stories: They tend to reach people already interested in the topic, making them a very small target group. In recent years, however, there have also been stories that appeal to a larger audience. She cites the novel “The Ministry for the Future” by US author Kim Stanley Robinson and the Netflix film “Don’t look up”. Drugstore entrepreneur Dirk Roßmann also reached broader target groups with his Octopus trilogy.
Hoydis recommends the following realistic climate change novels:
As climate change has progressed since the 2000s, the narratives have also changed. “The texts have arrived in the present,” summarizes Hoydis. While the first CliFi novels were set in a distant, hypothetical future, they are now much closer to our reality. Some climate fiction is already set in the past. Instead of abstract, technical solutions to the climate crisis, the novels now focus more often on resilience, adaptation and how to live with climate change.
Paulina Hennig-Kloska was not even in office when she already felt the explosive power her new duties would bring. Hennig-Kloska, who has since been appointed Minister of Climate and the Environment, presented a legislative proposal with other MPs to facilitate the construction of new wind farms caused particular outrage by reducing the distance to residential buildings: According to the proposal, particularly quiet turbines can be built at a distance of 300 meters – 200 meters less than was promised during the election campaign.
The Law and Justice Party (PiS), which led the government until last year, accused Hennig-Kloska of promoting wind turbine industry lobby groups, particularly from Germany. Hennig-Kloska demanded an apology and threatened to sue a PiS MP for defamation. Some coalition politicians then doubted Hennig-Kloska’s suitability for the new office – but her party kept the 46-year-old. A little later, as a sworn-in minister, she admitted mistakes and changed some points. The revised wind farm law is now due to be passed in March at the latest.
Hennig-Kloska is not an activist. The political scientist from Gniezno, west of Warsaw, first worked as a radio journalist, was head of department at a local bank and, with her husband Artur Kloska, ran the company Borg, which specializes in office furnishings.
In 2015, she joined the Nowoczesna party and was unexpectedly elected to the national parliament, the Sejm. Because Borg won a public contract to furnish schools, critics spoke of corruption. However, they could not provide any proof – and the voters did not believe them either. Instead, they re-elected the MP twice since then.
In the spring of 2021, Hennig-Kloska then switched to the Poland 2050 party, which is now part of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s governing coalition, and became one of the most important politicians in the new party, which presents itself as conservative and down-to-earth. With the new party also came a new topic: She moved from the health portfolio to the energy and climate committee.
“It was then that I realized that the energy transition is the foundation of a future competitive economy,” she says, “and the carbon footprint will destroy our economy if we don’t do something about it.” When it comes to economic policy, she is a liberal, advocating tax cuts and supporting the privatization of state-owned companies, with the exception of the energy and defense sectors.
In her new office, she will now have to get up to speed quickly and tackle many challenges, as the previous PiS government completely neglected environmental policy. Poland still covers 63 percent of its electricity needs with coal, and the phase-out of fossil fuels is not planned before 2049. Now the ministry is to promote investment in renewable energy sources, wind turbines, photovoltaics and biomass plants, but also nuclear energy. The thermal modernization of buildings must also be tackled urgently to achieve savings targets.
Hennig-Kloska also hopes that the European Union will help finance all this. The “Clean Air” program, for example, under which old incinerators are to be replaced, was recently frozen due to a lack of funding, although around 50,000 people die every year as a result of smog. Hennig-Kloska now wants to mobilize EU funding from the European Funds for Infrastructure, Climate, and Environment (FENIKS). Poland will also apply for project funding from the EU’s Fit for 55 package.
At the same time, Hennig-Kloska wants to maintain a balance, including within her own government. In mid-January, it was her Green deputy Urszula Zielińska who demanded a fast transformation and called for the EU to reduce its carbon emissions by 90 percent by 2040. Paulina Hennig-Kloska quickly brought Zielińska back in line and explained that the statement was neither official nor coordinated with other departments.
All parties in the governing coalition agree that Poland must become climate-neutral. However, this will take time. Poland did not join an alliance of eleven countries, including Germany, which also called for more ambitious EU climate targets. After all, Hennig-Kloska also has to take her coalition partner, the farmers’ party PSL, into consideration. Which declared that it does not want to overburden citizens with the transformation. Andrzej Rybak
