When first impressions count, things get uncomfortable in Baku. Unlike a year ago, when COP28 started with a success story (the “Loss and Damage” fund was adopted!), COP29 was entangled in a battle over the agenda throughout Monday. There was still time for the big words about responsibility, community and the future at the beginning, then it was interrupted. We naturally followed what it was all about, what was behind it, and what it means for the conference.
We are also looking at how Germany is doing today when the heads of state and government (do not) come to Baku. In the second most important currency in politics – time and attention for an issue – Germany also has a poor record on climate at the moment. At home, everyone is thinking about elections, not climate action, and Germany will not be represented in Baku when the big names appear.
We also provide you with an overview of the other important topics at the meeting: What about the promises to phase out fossil fuels? Where will the Climate Secretariat get its money if the US leaves the process? How will climate technologies for CO2 removal be financed in the near future?
I hope you find today’s issue an interesting read! We’ll stay tuned and will update you tomorrow.
The COP29 negotiations in Baku got underway on Monday after a 9-hour delay and a tough battle over the agenda. After the delegations had been working on compromises until the early hours of the morning the night before the start, the opening plenary adjourned immediately after the welcoming addresses by COP President Mukhtar Babayev and UNFCCC Secretary-General Simon Stiell. After hours of interruption, the agenda was finally adopted shortly after 8 p.m. in Baku, and work on the actual substance of the conference could begin. There was also a partial agreement on market mechanisms under Article 6.4 of the Paris Climate Agreement.
At the beginning of the conference, the outgoing and current COP presidents urged the delegations to work together constructively. “We are what we do, not what we say”, said Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President from the United Arab Emirates. Azerbaijani Environment Minister and COP29 Chair Mukhtar Babayev warned of a “road to ruin”, referring to current emissions data. The states must show that they “can achieve the goals they have set themselves”. Stiell also emphasized that the conference must adopt the planned new financial target; an unchecked climate crisis would burden everyone with significantly higher bills and more uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the negotiations only began after a long delay. This was because the delegations disputed issues that had already caused trouble in the past:
According to negotiators and observers, the progressive group around the EU, Latin America and the island states in particular remained tough for a long time in the dispute over the GST issue. One of the reasons for this is that the countries want to ensure that, despite COP29’s focus on financial issues, the topic of emissions reduction is still included in the debates and the final decision. The compromise is now intended to ensure this.
Unlike a year ago, when COP28 began with a positive surprise (the acceptance of the Loss and Damage Fund), this “agenda fight” also emphasizes confrontation and delay. COP29 is a conference that will ultimately make very difficult and far-reaching decisions on financial issues. Apparently, many key players wanted to convey right at the start of the meeting that they want to negotiate hard and will not make any easy concessions.
Late in the evening, the first (partial) breakthrough of this COP was achieved. The trade rules with greenhouse gas reductions in the private sector under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement were adopted. Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement regulates global trade in GHG reductions. In contrast to intergovernmental certificate trading under Article 6.2, private actors are also permitted under 6.4.
The standards for monitoring GHG reduction projects were still open. In October, a panel of experts commissioned by the Parties had drawn up proposals. However, instead of putting them up for discussion and then voting, the panel of experts proposed that their recommendation be adopted directly. The COP presidency followed this proposal and put the expert group’s recommendation to a vote without further consultation with the countries.
Observers criticize this as a “problematic precedent”, as it prevents a debate about the standards and circumvents state control. The standards themselves recommended by the 24-member panel of experts are also described as inadequate. For example, the monitoring of greenhouse gas reduction projects is too weak. This could lead to companies and countries claiming emission reductions that no longer take place.
Due to the failure of the “traffic light” coalition, the German government is showing significantly less presence at COP29 in Baku than it normally does at climate conferences. Unlike in almost every year of the last decade, the head of government is not attending the conference. Germany is not represented at the prestigious “World Leaders Climate Action Summit” at the start of COP29 due to Olaf Scholz’s refusal to attend. The German delegation is significantly smaller than last year, and fewer ministers and state secretaries are attending.
This year, Development Minister Svenja Schulze is foregoing the trip to Baku. According to the ministry, a “division of labor” has been decided upon: State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth will represent the BMZ at the COP, while the minister will fly to Chad next week to discuss the causes of flight. And although financing is a focus of the COP, the Ministry of Finance is only represented at working level – this was already planned before the coalition broke down.
Scholz’s absence is criticized by activists: Climate activist Luisa Neubauer, together with other Fridays for Future activists, is calling on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to travel to the UN climate summit in Azerbaijan after all. The group is making an “appeal to the Chancellor to change his mind and come here”, said Neubauer at the start of the World Climate Conference in Baku.
Germany has traditionally been one of the countries that pursue ambitious goals, drive the negotiation process forward and make significant contributions to climate financing and aid for developing countries. However, the record is bleak: the traffic light coalition has placed less focus on the climate issue than promised. Germany’s domestic climate balance is patchy. Especially since the endowment of the “Climate and Transformation Fund” (KTF) failed at the Constitutional Court in November 2023, there has been a lack of investment in climate action. The overall picture is clear:
At the mid-term review last year, Greenpeace concluded that “little progress has been made“. The think tank cooperation “Climate Action Tracker” currently gives Germany an “insufficient” rating for its climate policy.
However, the Climate Ministry still had a lot planned before the coalition broke up. According to the BMWK, many projects were to be realized or initiated in the coming year. It is now doubtful whether and which of these will happen. In detail, the BMWK had planned the following:
In Europe, Germany is officially firmly on the side of German Commission President Ursula von der Leyen when it comes to the Green Deal. However, German industrial interests and internal traffic light coalition disputes have repeatedly got in the way of the climate course:
Germany is showing a clear international profile. Baku is the third COP at which Germany’s course is determined primarily by green ministers, for whom the climate issue is important. The “cloverleaf” consisting of the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Change, the Environment Ministry and the Development Ministry has brought Germany’s diplomatic and economic weight to the negotiations to a greater extent than in the past, when only the Environment and Development Ministries were present at the COPs. Whether these priorities will remain the same after the next Bundestag elections is currently highly uncertain – as is Germany’s role.
Germany is one of the organizers and drivers of international climate efforts. It is an important member of the “High Ambition Coalition” (HAC), which is used at COPs to promote important issues by countries across all blocs.
Just a few days before the climate conference, a high-ranking COP official from the host country is still making the “many gas fields” in Azerbaijan “that are to be developed” attractive to investors. The country wants to increase its gas production by 30 percent over the next decade and double its exports to Europe by 2027.
What sounds like a scandal is no great surprise on closer inspection. Although the states decided for the first time at the last climate conference to “transition away from fossil fuels in the energy system”, many states continue to issue hundreds of extraction licenses. And state subsidies for fossil fuels have once again shot up to record levels.
The production and consumption of fossil fuels is responsible for 86 percent of global CO2 emissions. Coal, oil and gas are the main drivers of climate change. In order to achieve the climate targets, no more new oil and gas fields should be developed and coal consumption would have to fall sharply. But the opposite is the case:
With all this ongoing euphoria for fossil fuels, it is no wonder that the largest private oil and gas producers such as Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil and Total Energies have scaled back their climate targets in recent years. BP has recently rowed back even further. The company has abandoned its goal of producing less oil and gas by 2030.
According to Urgewald, however, there are also positive signs. 39 financial institutions such as banks, asset managers and insurers have adopted “effective exclusion criteria in the oil and gas sector that end financial transactions with large parts of the industry”. However, Regine Richter, energy and finance campaigner at Urgewald, says: “We need many more financial institutions that are prepared to introduce strict exclusion rules.”
The picture is also repeated for public subsidies for fossil fuels: At both G20 and COP levels, countries have repeatedly pledged to reduce “inefficient subsidies”. However, state subsidies for fossil fuels have recently shot up again:
With a view to the COP29 negotiations, Urgewald campaigner Richter is calling for “concrete interim steps”. Turning away from fossil fuels is a long-term goal, which makes it all the more important for the states to adopt concrete measures at COP29, says Richter. “Such interim steps could be an end to the expansion and financing of the oil and gas industry at home and abroad”, she says. “In addition, COP29 should adopt concrete plans on exactly what a phase-out of fossil fuels could look like, i.e. how it could be structured in a socially just way.”
In order to persuade the major producer states such as Saudi Arabia, the USA and COP host Azerbaijan to move away from fossil fuels, “the consumer states must reduce their imports. This would require investment in the restructuring of energy systems to reduce the demand for fossil fuels”, Richter demands in an interview with Table.Briefings. Overall, it is important to make the move away from fossil fuels more measurable so that the noble goal is not just on paper.
Nov. 12, 2024; 8:30 a.m., German Pavilion
Discussion Planetary Wealth: An Economic Case for Food Security
At this breakfast discussion, the Munich Security Conference’s Food Security Task Force will discuss with other stakeholders the economic benefits of building a climate-resilient, sustainable food system. Info
Nov. 12, 2024; 4:30 p.m., German Pavilion
Discussion NDCs 3.0 and the role of civil society
The third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is crucial to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. As the first Global Stocktake (GST) has shown, countries are collectively falling far short of the necessary level of ambition. But what are the key elements of robust NDCs 3.0 and how can the GST be practically incorporated into their development process? These questions are the focus of the side event organized by Germanwatch. Info
Nov. 12, 2024; 4:45 p.m., Side Event Room 4
Side Event Decarbonization beyond the value chain: navigating between carbon credits and climate contributions
Many stakeholders have proposed the “climate contribution” model as an alternative to the outdated offsetting approach. Panelists will discuss what this model entails, what requirements companies must meet to participate, and how it can support climate action beyond just carbon credits. The panel will include representatives from the New Climate Institute. Info
Nov. 12, 2024; 5 p.m., Blue Zone Presidency, Plenary Hall 2
Summit COP29 Summit on Methane and Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases
The COP presidency, together with the USA and China, will organize a summit on methane and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases. Info
A possible withdrawal of the USA from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) would put the Climate Change Secretariat in financial difficulties. If the US, the largest contributor to the convention to date, were to leave, as announced by President-elect Donald Trump, the UN Climate Change Secretariat would lose more than a quarter of its annual core budget, i.e. around $20 million. This is according to internal calculations by UN Climate Change, which the UN has confirmed to Table.Briefings.
This money would have to be raised by other countries – China would probably become the UNFCCC’s largest financier. Otherwise, the UN agency would no longer be able to carry out key tasks, or only to a limited extent. There is already a large gap in the UN Climate Change budget – in spring 2024, almost $10 million of the “core budget” of $74 million had not been paid in by the states. The USA’s share of this missing money was $7.2 million.
The scenario only takes into account the possible withdrawal of the USA from the convention. If Trump were to lead his country out of the Paris Agreement, as he did during his first term in office, the USA would still have to make payments. Due to a lack of remittances from member states, UN Climate Change has already canceled events and not filled positions in the past with around 400 employees. In March, Secretary-General Simon Stiell made an urgent appeal to the UN member states. He accused them of transferring more and more tasks to the agency without providing it with the necessary resources.
The Secretariat, based in Bonn, organizes the work under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It organizes the COPs and other meetings and supports poor countries in particular, for example in drawing up climate plans (NDCs) or implementing the Global Stock Take (GST). So far, it has a “core budget” of $74 million, which COP28 approved for the 2024/25 biennium budget. In addition, tasks assigned to the Secretariat by the COP as the convention’s supreme decision-making body are to raise an additional $78 million through “voluntary contributions” and donations. According to a current UN calculation, around $28 million is still missing from this budget. bpo
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will increase its climate-related lending by up to $7.2 billion after the US and Japan agreed to take on the risk for some existing loans. This was reported by the news agency Reuters. Accordingly, the ADB’s new strategy could serve as a template for other development banks. The ADB has set itself a long-term cumulative target of $100 billion for climate financing for the period 2019 to 2030. In 2023, it has lent $9.8 billion.
According to the new plan, the USA would guarantee up to one billion US dollars of existing loans from Asia’s most important development institution, while Japan would take on $600 million. This should enable the bank to grant more loans for climate-relevant projects. It is not yet clear how the election of Donald Trump in the USA will affect this project.
“The structure is a fantastic way to expand the lending capacity of a multilateral development bank (MDB) without going through the politically difficult situation of a general capital increase”, said Jacob Sorensen, Director of Partner Funds at the ADB. A general capital increase would have to be financed by additional contributions from countries. The additional scope for lending created by the guarantees is to be used over the next five years, while the term of the guarantees themselves is 25 years, the ADB said.
One of the first beneficiaries of the initiative will be a project in Pakistan to produce sustainable aviation fuel from cooking oil. Around half of the $90 million required will come from the ADB program, the contract for which is to be signed on Nov. 20.
The ADB, which is based in the Philippines, has spent three years developing the guarantee agreement with a group of Western governments and hopes other countries will soon follow suit. While the agreements mark the first use of sovereign guarantees for climate finance, they have previously been used to finance other areas of lending, such as education. rtr
Renewable energies are still replacing fossil fuels too slowly in the energy mix, according to the World Energy Transitions Outlook published yesterday by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). With the current national plans and targets for the expansion of renewables, the goal of tripling renewables by 2030 can only be achieved by half, according to IRENA. In 2023, a record 473 gigawatts of renewable capacity was installed worldwide. However, 1,044 gigawatts of additional capacity would be needed annually by 2030. The goal of doubling energy efficiency is also at risk of being missed with current efforts. The electrification of the transport, building and industrial sectors must be accelerated.
IRENA warns that the entire electricity system needs to be reformed so that renewables can grow faster:
According to IRENA, around $47 trillion will need to be invested in the energy system worldwide by 2030. The largest share of the costs ($15.8 trillion) would be for energy efficiency and energy saving. The expansion of renewables will require $10.7 trillion. The expansion of electricity grids and measures for more flexibility will cost five trillion US dollars, while the electrification of industry and buildings through heat pumps and transport (e.g. e-charging networks) will cost $3.4 trillion. nib
In order to finance the necessary future CO2 removals from the atmosphere, they could be integrated into existing emissions trading systems. A “yet-to-be-founded European institution”, a kind of central bank for CO2 certificates, would then ensure that trading works well. This is what the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and KfW propose in a joint discussion paper.
The paper states that new governance and financial structures are needed in order to scale CO2 removals to the extent required in the future. PIK and KfW describe possible ways to establish them. Promotional banks such as KfW could therefore make a decisive contribution to market development, for example through “early purchase programs and risk assumption”. PIK Director Ottmar Edenhofer and KfW CEO Stefan Wintels plan to present their proposal next Thursday on the sidelines of COP29 in Baku.
Because CO2 emissions are falling too slowly to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, the PIK expects that “a great deal of CO2 will have to be removed from the atmosphere” in the future – which could cost up to two percent of annual global economic output in 2050, depending on the scenario. However, the climate damage would be even more expensive. The necessary investments cannot be financed by public funds alone.
According to PIK, the annual climate damage worldwide could reach trillions of euros by 2050. The research institute puts the economic damage caused by the emission of one ton of CO2 at €1000 and more. For comparison: The price for the right to emit one ton of CO2 is currently around 65 euros in European emissions trading. ae
No significant progress is expected in the areas of agriculture and food security at the COP29 World Climate Conference in Baku, which began yesterday. This forecast was made by the non-governmental organization Germanwatch in its briefing “Food systems at COP29”. It states that the potential of both sectors for climate action is still not being sufficiently taken into account. Furthermore, a global target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is missing.
Food systems are responsible for up to a third of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, writes the NGO. Binding and ambitious measures for a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions are therefore essential. Furthermore, a resilient design of food systems with regard to food security, sustainability and compliance with planetary boundaries and human rights is necessary to adapt to climate change.
Germanwatch notes that previous approaches and efforts in this regard are far from sufficient. In 2019 and 2020, only four percent of global climate finance went to the agriculture and food sector. It is crucial that the international community also sets a sub-target for financing the transformation of global food systems when agreeing on a new global climate financing target. However, this is not to be expected at COP29.
Whether and what specific goals will be formulated for the agrifood sector at COP29 will become clear this week and next. The Food, Agriculture and Water Day will take place on Nov. 19, where initiatives from the COP presidency and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) will be presented. kih
At the start of the UN climate summit, the NGO International Rescue Committee (IRC) is pushing for international climate financing to be geared more towards the needs of people in conflict areas. IRC is calling on the delegations in Baku to:
According to the IRC, the effects of climate change and conflict are particularly severe in 17 countries (Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen). “On the one hand, at 10.5 percent, these countries make up a small proportion of the world’s population and are responsible for only 3.5 percent of greenhouse gas emissions“, writes the NGO. “On the other hand, around a third of all people affected by natural disasters and three-quarters of all people in need of humanitarian aid worldwide live there.” Climate change acts “as a threat catalyst for local communities: Food insecurity is increasing, livelihoods are under threat and tensions are intensifying”.
Specifically, the IRC calls, among other things, for 18 percent of the total adaptation funding earmarked for developing countries to be given to climate-prone and conflict-affected countries, for climate action and adaptation funding to be split equally, and for conflict-affected countries to be granted access to the “Loss and Damage” fund. ae
Reuters: Taliban at COP29. Representatives of the Afghan Taliban will attend the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku. The Taliban were not welcome at the UN climate conferences in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in 2022 and in Dubai in 2023. Read the full article
Wall Street Journal: Bathing in oil. The fact that the World Climate Change Conference is being held in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku this year seems incongruous. Hardly any other country is as economically dependent on oil as Azerbaijan. Baku even offers baths in warm oil. Read the full article
Nau: China should also pay. At the climate summit in Baku, Switzerland wants to lobby for an increase in the number of donor countries investing in global climate protection. All countries, but above all the wealthy states, should contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the best of their ability. In the future, not only industrialized countries should pay, but also China and Saudi Arabia. Read the full article
Politico: Trump wants to cancel climate agreement. Donald Trump wants to cancel the Paris climate agreement again after taking office in January. This could have negative economic consequences for the USA. China could leave the country behind in areas such as e-mobility and renewable energy. Read the full article
New York Times: Climate protection to the last. Biden administration officials are scrambling to award hundreds of millions of dollars in grants and set environmental regulations. President Joe Biden’s climate agenda is to be largely enforced until Donald Trump moves into the White House. Read the full article
Times: Starmer backs CO2 reduction. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is among the few G7 heads of government who will be attending COP29 in Azerbaijan. Starmer believes that it is in the UK’s interest to lead global efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions. Read the full article
When first impressions count, things get uncomfortable in Baku. Unlike a year ago, when COP28 started with a success story (the “Loss and Damage” fund was adopted!), COP29 was entangled in a battle over the agenda throughout Monday. There was still time for the big words about responsibility, community and the future at the beginning, then it was interrupted. We naturally followed what it was all about, what was behind it, and what it means for the conference.
We are also looking at how Germany is doing today when the heads of state and government (do not) come to Baku. In the second most important currency in politics – time and attention for an issue – Germany also has a poor record on climate at the moment. At home, everyone is thinking about elections, not climate action, and Germany will not be represented in Baku when the big names appear.
We also provide you with an overview of the other important topics at the meeting: What about the promises to phase out fossil fuels? Where will the Climate Secretariat get its money if the US leaves the process? How will climate technologies for CO2 removal be financed in the near future?
I hope you find today’s issue an interesting read! We’ll stay tuned and will update you tomorrow.
The COP29 negotiations in Baku got underway on Monday after a 9-hour delay and a tough battle over the agenda. After the delegations had been working on compromises until the early hours of the morning the night before the start, the opening plenary adjourned immediately after the welcoming addresses by COP President Mukhtar Babayev and UNFCCC Secretary-General Simon Stiell. After hours of interruption, the agenda was finally adopted shortly after 8 p.m. in Baku, and work on the actual substance of the conference could begin. There was also a partial agreement on market mechanisms under Article 6.4 of the Paris Climate Agreement.
At the beginning of the conference, the outgoing and current COP presidents urged the delegations to work together constructively. “We are what we do, not what we say”, said Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President from the United Arab Emirates. Azerbaijani Environment Minister and COP29 Chair Mukhtar Babayev warned of a “road to ruin”, referring to current emissions data. The states must show that they “can achieve the goals they have set themselves”. Stiell also emphasized that the conference must adopt the planned new financial target; an unchecked climate crisis would burden everyone with significantly higher bills and more uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the negotiations only began after a long delay. This was because the delegations disputed issues that had already caused trouble in the past:
According to negotiators and observers, the progressive group around the EU, Latin America and the island states in particular remained tough for a long time in the dispute over the GST issue. One of the reasons for this is that the countries want to ensure that, despite COP29’s focus on financial issues, the topic of emissions reduction is still included in the debates and the final decision. The compromise is now intended to ensure this.
Unlike a year ago, when COP28 began with a positive surprise (the acceptance of the Loss and Damage Fund), this “agenda fight” also emphasizes confrontation and delay. COP29 is a conference that will ultimately make very difficult and far-reaching decisions on financial issues. Apparently, many key players wanted to convey right at the start of the meeting that they want to negotiate hard and will not make any easy concessions.
Late in the evening, the first (partial) breakthrough of this COP was achieved. The trade rules with greenhouse gas reductions in the private sector under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement were adopted. Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement regulates global trade in GHG reductions. In contrast to intergovernmental certificate trading under Article 6.2, private actors are also permitted under 6.4.
The standards for monitoring GHG reduction projects were still open. In October, a panel of experts commissioned by the Parties had drawn up proposals. However, instead of putting them up for discussion and then voting, the panel of experts proposed that their recommendation be adopted directly. The COP presidency followed this proposal and put the expert group’s recommendation to a vote without further consultation with the countries.
Observers criticize this as a “problematic precedent”, as it prevents a debate about the standards and circumvents state control. The standards themselves recommended by the 24-member panel of experts are also described as inadequate. For example, the monitoring of greenhouse gas reduction projects is too weak. This could lead to companies and countries claiming emission reductions that no longer take place.
Due to the failure of the “traffic light” coalition, the German government is showing significantly less presence at COP29 in Baku than it normally does at climate conferences. Unlike in almost every year of the last decade, the head of government is not attending the conference. Germany is not represented at the prestigious “World Leaders Climate Action Summit” at the start of COP29 due to Olaf Scholz’s refusal to attend. The German delegation is significantly smaller than last year, and fewer ministers and state secretaries are attending.
This year, Development Minister Svenja Schulze is foregoing the trip to Baku. According to the ministry, a “division of labor” has been decided upon: State Secretary Jochen Flasbarth will represent the BMZ at the COP, while the minister will fly to Chad next week to discuss the causes of flight. And although financing is a focus of the COP, the Ministry of Finance is only represented at working level – this was already planned before the coalition broke down.
Scholz’s absence is criticized by activists: Climate activist Luisa Neubauer, together with other Fridays for Future activists, is calling on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to travel to the UN climate summit in Azerbaijan after all. The group is making an “appeal to the Chancellor to change his mind and come here”, said Neubauer at the start of the World Climate Conference in Baku.
Germany has traditionally been one of the countries that pursue ambitious goals, drive the negotiation process forward and make significant contributions to climate financing and aid for developing countries. However, the record is bleak: the traffic light coalition has placed less focus on the climate issue than promised. Germany’s domestic climate balance is patchy. Especially since the endowment of the “Climate and Transformation Fund” (KTF) failed at the Constitutional Court in November 2023, there has been a lack of investment in climate action. The overall picture is clear:
At the mid-term review last year, Greenpeace concluded that “little progress has been made“. The think tank cooperation “Climate Action Tracker” currently gives Germany an “insufficient” rating for its climate policy.
However, the Climate Ministry still had a lot planned before the coalition broke up. According to the BMWK, many projects were to be realized or initiated in the coming year. It is now doubtful whether and which of these will happen. In detail, the BMWK had planned the following:
In Europe, Germany is officially firmly on the side of German Commission President Ursula von der Leyen when it comes to the Green Deal. However, German industrial interests and internal traffic light coalition disputes have repeatedly got in the way of the climate course:
Germany is showing a clear international profile. Baku is the third COP at which Germany’s course is determined primarily by green ministers, for whom the climate issue is important. The “cloverleaf” consisting of the Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Change, the Environment Ministry and the Development Ministry has brought Germany’s diplomatic and economic weight to the negotiations to a greater extent than in the past, when only the Environment and Development Ministries were present at the COPs. Whether these priorities will remain the same after the next Bundestag elections is currently highly uncertain – as is Germany’s role.
Germany is one of the organizers and drivers of international climate efforts. It is an important member of the “High Ambition Coalition” (HAC), which is used at COPs to promote important issues by countries across all blocs.
Just a few days before the climate conference, a high-ranking COP official from the host country is still making the “many gas fields” in Azerbaijan “that are to be developed” attractive to investors. The country wants to increase its gas production by 30 percent over the next decade and double its exports to Europe by 2027.
What sounds like a scandal is no great surprise on closer inspection. Although the states decided for the first time at the last climate conference to “transition away from fossil fuels in the energy system”, many states continue to issue hundreds of extraction licenses. And state subsidies for fossil fuels have once again shot up to record levels.
The production and consumption of fossil fuels is responsible for 86 percent of global CO2 emissions. Coal, oil and gas are the main drivers of climate change. In order to achieve the climate targets, no more new oil and gas fields should be developed and coal consumption would have to fall sharply. But the opposite is the case:
With all this ongoing euphoria for fossil fuels, it is no wonder that the largest private oil and gas producers such as Shell, BP, Exxon Mobil and Total Energies have scaled back their climate targets in recent years. BP has recently rowed back even further. The company has abandoned its goal of producing less oil and gas by 2030.
According to Urgewald, however, there are also positive signs. 39 financial institutions such as banks, asset managers and insurers have adopted “effective exclusion criteria in the oil and gas sector that end financial transactions with large parts of the industry”. However, Regine Richter, energy and finance campaigner at Urgewald, says: “We need many more financial institutions that are prepared to introduce strict exclusion rules.”
The picture is also repeated for public subsidies for fossil fuels: At both G20 and COP levels, countries have repeatedly pledged to reduce “inefficient subsidies”. However, state subsidies for fossil fuels have recently shot up again:
With a view to the COP29 negotiations, Urgewald campaigner Richter is calling for “concrete interim steps”. Turning away from fossil fuels is a long-term goal, which makes it all the more important for the states to adopt concrete measures at COP29, says Richter. “Such interim steps could be an end to the expansion and financing of the oil and gas industry at home and abroad”, she says. “In addition, COP29 should adopt concrete plans on exactly what a phase-out of fossil fuels could look like, i.e. how it could be structured in a socially just way.”
In order to persuade the major producer states such as Saudi Arabia, the USA and COP host Azerbaijan to move away from fossil fuels, “the consumer states must reduce their imports. This would require investment in the restructuring of energy systems to reduce the demand for fossil fuels”, Richter demands in an interview with Table.Briefings. Overall, it is important to make the move away from fossil fuels more measurable so that the noble goal is not just on paper.
Nov. 12, 2024; 8:30 a.m., German Pavilion
Discussion Planetary Wealth: An Economic Case for Food Security
At this breakfast discussion, the Munich Security Conference’s Food Security Task Force will discuss with other stakeholders the economic benefits of building a climate-resilient, sustainable food system. Info
Nov. 12, 2024; 4:30 p.m., German Pavilion
Discussion NDCs 3.0 and the role of civil society
The third generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is crucial to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. As the first Global Stocktake (GST) has shown, countries are collectively falling far short of the necessary level of ambition. But what are the key elements of robust NDCs 3.0 and how can the GST be practically incorporated into their development process? These questions are the focus of the side event organized by Germanwatch. Info
Nov. 12, 2024; 4:45 p.m., Side Event Room 4
Side Event Decarbonization beyond the value chain: navigating between carbon credits and climate contributions
Many stakeholders have proposed the “climate contribution” model as an alternative to the outdated offsetting approach. Panelists will discuss what this model entails, what requirements companies must meet to participate, and how it can support climate action beyond just carbon credits. The panel will include representatives from the New Climate Institute. Info
Nov. 12, 2024; 5 p.m., Blue Zone Presidency, Plenary Hall 2
Summit COP29 Summit on Methane and Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases
The COP presidency, together with the USA and China, will organize a summit on methane and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases. Info
A possible withdrawal of the USA from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) would put the Climate Change Secretariat in financial difficulties. If the US, the largest contributor to the convention to date, were to leave, as announced by President-elect Donald Trump, the UN Climate Change Secretariat would lose more than a quarter of its annual core budget, i.e. around $20 million. This is according to internal calculations by UN Climate Change, which the UN has confirmed to Table.Briefings.
This money would have to be raised by other countries – China would probably become the UNFCCC’s largest financier. Otherwise, the UN agency would no longer be able to carry out key tasks, or only to a limited extent. There is already a large gap in the UN Climate Change budget – in spring 2024, almost $10 million of the “core budget” of $74 million had not been paid in by the states. The USA’s share of this missing money was $7.2 million.
The scenario only takes into account the possible withdrawal of the USA from the convention. If Trump were to lead his country out of the Paris Agreement, as he did during his first term in office, the USA would still have to make payments. Due to a lack of remittances from member states, UN Climate Change has already canceled events and not filled positions in the past with around 400 employees. In March, Secretary-General Simon Stiell made an urgent appeal to the UN member states. He accused them of transferring more and more tasks to the agency without providing it with the necessary resources.
The Secretariat, based in Bonn, organizes the work under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. It organizes the COPs and other meetings and supports poor countries in particular, for example in drawing up climate plans (NDCs) or implementing the Global Stock Take (GST). So far, it has a “core budget” of $74 million, which COP28 approved for the 2024/25 biennium budget. In addition, tasks assigned to the Secretariat by the COP as the convention’s supreme decision-making body are to raise an additional $78 million through “voluntary contributions” and donations. According to a current UN calculation, around $28 million is still missing from this budget. bpo
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) will increase its climate-related lending by up to $7.2 billion after the US and Japan agreed to take on the risk for some existing loans. This was reported by the news agency Reuters. Accordingly, the ADB’s new strategy could serve as a template for other development banks. The ADB has set itself a long-term cumulative target of $100 billion for climate financing for the period 2019 to 2030. In 2023, it has lent $9.8 billion.
According to the new plan, the USA would guarantee up to one billion US dollars of existing loans from Asia’s most important development institution, while Japan would take on $600 million. This should enable the bank to grant more loans for climate-relevant projects. It is not yet clear how the election of Donald Trump in the USA will affect this project.
“The structure is a fantastic way to expand the lending capacity of a multilateral development bank (MDB) without going through the politically difficult situation of a general capital increase”, said Jacob Sorensen, Director of Partner Funds at the ADB. A general capital increase would have to be financed by additional contributions from countries. The additional scope for lending created by the guarantees is to be used over the next five years, while the term of the guarantees themselves is 25 years, the ADB said.
One of the first beneficiaries of the initiative will be a project in Pakistan to produce sustainable aviation fuel from cooking oil. Around half of the $90 million required will come from the ADB program, the contract for which is to be signed on Nov. 20.
The ADB, which is based in the Philippines, has spent three years developing the guarantee agreement with a group of Western governments and hopes other countries will soon follow suit. While the agreements mark the first use of sovereign guarantees for climate finance, they have previously been used to finance other areas of lending, such as education. rtr
Renewable energies are still replacing fossil fuels too slowly in the energy mix, according to the World Energy Transitions Outlook published yesterday by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). With the current national plans and targets for the expansion of renewables, the goal of tripling renewables by 2030 can only be achieved by half, according to IRENA. In 2023, a record 473 gigawatts of renewable capacity was installed worldwide. However, 1,044 gigawatts of additional capacity would be needed annually by 2030. The goal of doubling energy efficiency is also at risk of being missed with current efforts. The electrification of the transport, building and industrial sectors must be accelerated.
IRENA warns that the entire electricity system needs to be reformed so that renewables can grow faster:
According to IRENA, around $47 trillion will need to be invested in the energy system worldwide by 2030. The largest share of the costs ($15.8 trillion) would be for energy efficiency and energy saving. The expansion of renewables will require $10.7 trillion. The expansion of electricity grids and measures for more flexibility will cost five trillion US dollars, while the electrification of industry and buildings through heat pumps and transport (e.g. e-charging networks) will cost $3.4 trillion. nib
In order to finance the necessary future CO2 removals from the atmosphere, they could be integrated into existing emissions trading systems. A “yet-to-be-founded European institution”, a kind of central bank for CO2 certificates, would then ensure that trading works well. This is what the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and KfW propose in a joint discussion paper.
The paper states that new governance and financial structures are needed in order to scale CO2 removals to the extent required in the future. PIK and KfW describe possible ways to establish them. Promotional banks such as KfW could therefore make a decisive contribution to market development, for example through “early purchase programs and risk assumption”. PIK Director Ottmar Edenhofer and KfW CEO Stefan Wintels plan to present their proposal next Thursday on the sidelines of COP29 in Baku.
Because CO2 emissions are falling too slowly to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, the PIK expects that “a great deal of CO2 will have to be removed from the atmosphere” in the future – which could cost up to two percent of annual global economic output in 2050, depending on the scenario. However, the climate damage would be even more expensive. The necessary investments cannot be financed by public funds alone.
According to PIK, the annual climate damage worldwide could reach trillions of euros by 2050. The research institute puts the economic damage caused by the emission of one ton of CO2 at €1000 and more. For comparison: The price for the right to emit one ton of CO2 is currently around 65 euros in European emissions trading. ae
No significant progress is expected in the areas of agriculture and food security at the COP29 World Climate Conference in Baku, which began yesterday. This forecast was made by the non-governmental organization Germanwatch in its briefing “Food systems at COP29”. It states that the potential of both sectors for climate action is still not being sufficiently taken into account. Furthermore, a global target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is missing.
Food systems are responsible for up to a third of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, writes the NGO. Binding and ambitious measures for a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions are therefore essential. Furthermore, a resilient design of food systems with regard to food security, sustainability and compliance with planetary boundaries and human rights is necessary to adapt to climate change.
Germanwatch notes that previous approaches and efforts in this regard are far from sufficient. In 2019 and 2020, only four percent of global climate finance went to the agriculture and food sector. It is crucial that the international community also sets a sub-target for financing the transformation of global food systems when agreeing on a new global climate financing target. However, this is not to be expected at COP29.
Whether and what specific goals will be formulated for the agrifood sector at COP29 will become clear this week and next. The Food, Agriculture and Water Day will take place on Nov. 19, where initiatives from the COP presidency and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) will be presented. kih
At the start of the UN climate summit, the NGO International Rescue Committee (IRC) is pushing for international climate financing to be geared more towards the needs of people in conflict areas. IRC is calling on the delegations in Baku to:
According to the IRC, the effects of climate change and conflict are particularly severe in 17 countries (Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria and Yemen). “On the one hand, at 10.5 percent, these countries make up a small proportion of the world’s population and are responsible for only 3.5 percent of greenhouse gas emissions“, writes the NGO. “On the other hand, around a third of all people affected by natural disasters and three-quarters of all people in need of humanitarian aid worldwide live there.” Climate change acts “as a threat catalyst for local communities: Food insecurity is increasing, livelihoods are under threat and tensions are intensifying”.
Specifically, the IRC calls, among other things, for 18 percent of the total adaptation funding earmarked for developing countries to be given to climate-prone and conflict-affected countries, for climate action and adaptation funding to be split equally, and for conflict-affected countries to be granted access to the “Loss and Damage” fund. ae
Reuters: Taliban at COP29. Representatives of the Afghan Taliban will attend the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku. The Taliban were not welcome at the UN climate conferences in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in 2022 and in Dubai in 2023. Read the full article
Wall Street Journal: Bathing in oil. The fact that the World Climate Change Conference is being held in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku this year seems incongruous. Hardly any other country is as economically dependent on oil as Azerbaijan. Baku even offers baths in warm oil. Read the full article
Nau: China should also pay. At the climate summit in Baku, Switzerland wants to lobby for an increase in the number of donor countries investing in global climate protection. All countries, but above all the wealthy states, should contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to the best of their ability. In the future, not only industrialized countries should pay, but also China and Saudi Arabia. Read the full article
Politico: Trump wants to cancel climate agreement. Donald Trump wants to cancel the Paris climate agreement again after taking office in January. This could have negative economic consequences for the USA. China could leave the country behind in areas such as e-mobility and renewable energy. Read the full article
New York Times: Climate protection to the last. Biden administration officials are scrambling to award hundreds of millions of dollars in grants and set environmental regulations. President Joe Biden’s climate agenda is to be largely enforced until Donald Trump moves into the White House. Read the full article
Times: Starmer backs CO2 reduction. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is among the few G7 heads of government who will be attending COP29 in Azerbaijan. Starmer believes that it is in the UK’s interest to lead global efforts to reduce CO₂ emissions. Read the full article