COP28: Tipping points as risk and opportunity + New text: Everything still open + Strategies against populism

Dear reader,

COP28 offers many alarming messages, but always a little bit of hope. A new study on climate tipping points shows that our planet’s ecosystem could reach tipping points sooner than expected. But politicians can counteract this with positive, social tipping points. The energy sector has almost reached such a positive tipping point. Nico Beckert reports on the impending dangers and possible approaches to mitigate them.

In keeping with today’s urbanization and cities day, we also present some background on the role of cities in climate change: They are particularly vulnerable and receive far too little attention in national climate plans. And Manuel Berkel explains what the recently adopted EU hydrogen quotas mean for the industrial and transport sectors.

We also look at new plans for Germany’s contribution to the global energy transition, the current status of the negotiating text for the Global Stocktake, and how green cooling systems could look in a hotter future.

Keep a cool head!

Your
Lisa Kuner

Study: Tipping points as disasters – or as positive change

Gewaltige Eisberge vor Grönland — The Greenland ice sheet is one of the five most endangered climate tipping points.

By

Nico Beckert

In a study published today, scientists warn that climate tipping points “pose threats of a magnitude never faced by humanity.” Countries must quickly phase out fossil fuels and include tipping points in their national climate targets (NDCs) and the Global Stocktake.

“The world is on a catastrophic path” is the clear message of the study, which involved over 200 scientists and summarizes previous research on the topic. Exceeding these tipping points threatens the stability of many societies, the study says.

Around the world, for instance, important food-growing regions are being changed to such an extent that agriculture in its current form is hardly possible. However, politics can also bring about positive tipping points that could stop global warming faster. The energy sector has almost reached such a positive tipping point.

‘The world is on a catastrophic path’

According to the new study, some negative tipping points could already occur “with less global warming than previously assumed.” The world is running out of time: Some of them threaten to tip over in the next few decades – in some cases, this tipping point cannot be reversed. However, Jonathan Donges from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) also emphasizes that not all tipping points are necessarily irreversible.

Even at the current level of global warming, there is a risk that five major tipping points will soon be exceeded:

Unstable ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica. Both tipping points could soon occur. However, the melting would not happen abruptly, but over centuries.
The thawing of permafrost soils – this is considered a regional tipping point.
Changes in the subpolar North Atlantic Gyre, an ocean current in the North Atlantic that stretches as far as Norway.
The dying of warm-water corals.

The researchers identified a total of 26 tipping points. Other studies estimate 14 or 16 tipping points.

Effects: Food cultivation more difficult, flooding, trillions in losses

If global warming exceeds the 2-degree threshold, the Amazon rainforest would also be at risk of “partial collapse.” Global warming would contribute to the rainforest losing its canopy in certain regions, drying out and thus regressing.

Crossing the tipping points would have a dramatic impact on water and food supplies, health, local communities and national economies:

The death of the Amazon rainforest would expose six million people to extreme heat stress and cause between 1 and 3.5 trillion US dollars in economic damage.
The melting of the Antarctic ice sheet could increase sea levels by two meters by 2100 and lead to annual flooding affecting 480 million people.
A collapse of the North Atlantic Current would jeopardize the food supply of hundreds of millions of people.

However, the study has also been criticized. Gerrit Lohmann, a climate scientist at the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, called the study too certain in some areas and “understated” the uncertainties that still exist in tipping points research. For some tipping points, it is not yet entirely clear at which temperature rises they will occur. More research is needed in some areas, he said. However, the authors of the study also note this.

Politics can bring about positive tipping points

The researchers say that in order to prevent entire earth systems from tipping over, countries need to bring about positive tipping points. The energy system has almost reached such a tipping point: Renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries. This could lead to more demand for more green technologies like EVs and heat pumps. Developments in one area, therefore, positively affect other high-emission areas.

They also identified the potential for positive tipping points in transport and nutrition. Low-carbon modes of transportation would have to become more attractive than fossil fuels – for example, by making cities more attractive for walking and cycling and improving local public transport. The same applies to food: Meatless food should become more attractive and cheaper; farmers should be provided with other sources of income, for example, by paying them to conserve the environment.

However, policymakers would have to actively initiate such positive tipping points and work towards them by:

promoting technological innovations and ensuring their global distribution;
providing money
bringing about changes in behaviors and norms;
guiding political and social behavior in a more positive direction, for example, by introducing energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances.

The scientists recommend setting up climate clubs of frontrunner countries. For example, the EU, the USA and China could join forces and ban the sale of combustion engines. This would accelerate the positive tipping point towards more EVs. The financial system would also have to be restructured in such a way that it accelerates positive tipping points.

EU: What the hydrogen quotas mean for industry and transport

Direct reduction plants for steel production can be converted to green hydrogen.

By

Manuel Berkel

The existence of many European economic sectors depends on access to cheap green hydrogen. The revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), which came into force on November 20, sets fixed quotas for industry and transportation.

EU RED III quotas for 2030 for green hydrogen and its derivatives (in EU jargon, “renewable liquid and gaseous fuels of non-biological origin” or RFNBO for short):

Industry: 42 percent for energy and non-energy purposes, for example, in the chemical, fertilizer and steel industries. The quota will increase to 60 percent as early as 2035.
Transport: One percent for all means of transportation in total. However, according to the fuel association en2x, since the RED allows RFNBOs to be credited twice their energy content for total traffic, the quota is effectively only 0.5 percent.

Unclear requirements for air traffic

Separate quotas for e-fuels apply for individual modes of transport in 2030:

Maritime transport: According to RED III, a target value of 1.2 percent RFNBO applies to EU countries with seaports. However, a higher weighting factor of 1.5 also applies here, meaning that the effective quota is only 0.8 percent.
Aviation: According to the new ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, a mandatory quota for “synthetic aviation fuels” of 1.2 percent will apply on average in 2030/31 – increasing to 35 percent by 2050. Together with aviation biofuels, even higher shares apply for “sustainable aviation fuels” (SAF) – 70 percent by 2050, for example. However, RED III also sets a factor of 1.5 for RFNBO in aviation. Therefore, the quota for 2030/31 would also be 0.8 percent. Burkhard Hoffmann from the Stiftung Umweltenergierecht explains that it is unclear to what extent the factor from the RED also applies to ReFuelEU Aviation.
Car transport: The EU fleet limits for trucks are still under negotiation, but quotas for trucks are considered unlikely. The latest amendment to the fleet limits did not include mandatory e-fuel quotas for passenger cars. However, as cars currently consume almost five times as much fuel as airplanes and ships combined, cars and trucks will probably have to use e-fuels after all in order to achieve the overall quota for transport. The pressure would decrease if the number of electric cars were to increase rapidly by 2030.

Companies criticize lack of private capital

At the start of the week, several European companies pushed for the EU to provide additional funding for the hydrogen economy. In a joint statement, the heads of the German companies Sunfire, BayWa r.e. and Enapter, among others, wrote that existing funds were insufficient to compensate for the lack of private investment.

However, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did not announce any new financing on Monday, but rather the second call for tenders by the European Hydrogen Bank, which will be launched in the spring. In addition, one of the world’s largest production plants for green hydrogen and ammonia with ten gigawatts is to be built in the Brazilian state of Piauí with EU funding, which is to arrive at a terminal on the Croatian island of Krk. For comparison, Ten gigawatts corresponds to the German government’s target for the total output of domestic electrolyzers in 2030.

Background: cities and regions

The Thames Barrier flood protection barrier in London. Because of climate change, it will probably soon have to be extended and reinforced.

By

Lisa Kuner

What it’s about:

Cities and regions are at the forefront of the fight against the climate crisis. Urban centers are heating up particularly fast. Local administrations and governments must take action and promote innovation. In the EU, for example, local governments are in charge of implementing 70 percent of all regulations. At the same time, their interests sometimes clash with those of national governments. And local actors often lack the necessary financial resources for efficient climate action.

Why it’s important:

Cities generate more than 75 percent of global emissions – heating and cooling are particularly important, large amounts of waste are produced and vehicles emit a lot of emissions. By 2050, around two-thirds of humanity will live in cities.

The consequences of the climate crisis are particularly noticeable in cities. They are often located on rivers, lakes or mountain slopes, where they are severely affected by the consequences of extreme weather events. This is also evident when looking at the COP28 host city: Analyses show that Dubai would be largely under water due to rising sea levels in the event of global warming of 2.9 degrees.

These are the details:

The Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency represents subnational governments in the UNFCCC process. Before COP28, the cities and regions it represents had already formulated their position on tackling climate change in a statement. Among other things, they call for

Recognizing subnational actors more strongly
Promoting regional adaptation
Improving financing of local climate action
Better integrate subnational voices into the UNFCCC process
Promoting multilevel partnerships

For example, the C40 and ICLEI networks also represent cities and regions. At the start of the COP, the needs of cities were prioritized with the Local Climate Action Summit (LCAS) with more than 500 local leaders. The Multilevel Action, Urbanization and Built Environment theme day on December 6 will also focus on this topic.

A Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships was formed at the LCAS. The initiative demands better involvement of local and regional players for more efficient climate action.

This is being criticized:

Local actors often complain about insufficient financial resources for efficient climate action – especially for adaptation, as the Adaptation Gap Report shows. Over the next 15 years, an estimated 93 trillion US dollars of investment will be needed for sustainable infrastructure – a large proportion of this in cities and at the regional level.

Cities and regions also regularly call for them to be better integrated into climate action processes because important decisions are mainly made at the national level. In this context, there is repeated criticism that cities are not sufficiently represented in NDCs.

This could be an outcome at COP28:

Mobility, buildings and food systems – these are just some of the topics discussed at the climate conference regarding cities. Only limited tangible results are expected. Instead, the climate conference could serve as a platform for presenting local solutions and networking ambitious politicians. One such example is the City Climate Finance Gap Fund, managed by the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, which provides start-up financing for investments in sustainable infrastructure. The ministerial on the topic will also identify levers for local climate financing.

Second GST draft: many options, many problems

A first draft of the negotiating text for the Global Stocktake (GST) was published on Tuesday morning. It will also be the final document of COP28, as there will be no separate cover decision this year. It contains numerous options for the most disputed issues. This means that a distinction is made between two mostly conflicting positions. The third option is to scrap the entire paragraph.

Fossil fuel phase out or phase down

The draft text includes the option of an “orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels” – a phase-out without backdoors for CCS and restrictions on emissions from fossil fuels, but also without a specific year. The second option is “accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels.”

However, there is also the addition that the “consumption” of fossil fuels should be reduced and net-zero in energy systems should be achieved by 2050. Linda Kalcher from Brussels-based think tank Strategic Perspectives considers this addition problematic, as it shifts the responsibility for reducing emissions entirely onto consumers and leaves oil and gas-producing countries scott-free.

Coal phase-out by 2030 and net zero by 2040

An ambitious formulation on coal, which is unlikely to make it into the final text, envisages “a rapid phase out of unabated coal power this decade.” China and India cannot agree to this as this will prevent them from switching their economies by 2030. Revenues are likely to decline.

Another issue is the call on countries to communicate net-zero targets by the next COP. Option 1 would require countries to make these targets 1.5-degree-compatible. However, developing countries reject this, as it does not differentiate between the poorer countries and the wealthier main contributors to climate change.

Option 2 does not appeal to developed countries, as it requires them to achieve net zero emissions by 2040 and negative greenhouse gas emissions “as early as possible.” For instance, Germany’s current target for net zero is 2045, while the EU wants to be climate-neutral by 2050.

Veiled CBAM criticism

One proposal for a wording is likely to mainly raise eyebrows in Europe. It states that climate action measures that restrict international trade should be avoided. As South Africa, in particular, has criticized the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for doing just that, it is obvious where the finger is pointing. However, the USA will also feel addressed with its Inflation Reduction Act. China considers the IRA an unfair trade practice.

The new text is now undergoing further negotiations and will be discussed in the interim plenary session on Wednesday, the last day of the first COP week. As it is a negotiating text, there may still be numerous changes and mergers of options as the negotiations continue. luk

Report: CCS could leave more emissions than expected

According to calculations by Climate Analytics, the broad use of carbon capture technologies could reduce up to 86 gigatons of greenhouse gas emissions less than assumed by 2050. This is because, in practice, CCS plants often capture much less CO2 than would be necessary to reduce emissions effectively. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines mitigated emissions (“abatement”) as a reduction of 95 percent. However, existing CCS plants often only capture 50 percent or less of emissions.

If CCS is used on a large scale and the phase-out of fossil fuels is delayed as a result, there is a risk that emissions will remain at a high level. The researchers based their calculations on an IPCC scenario assuming the highest share of CCS expansion. The 86 gigatons of emissions (CO2 equivalents) are the difference between a capture rate of 50 percent and a rate of 95 percent, plus higher methane emissions, because here, too, the capture rates are often lower in reality.

“The banner ‘abated’ is already serving as a trojan horse, allowing fossil fuel projects with underperforming capture rates and limited action to cut upstream production emissions to proceed,” criticizes Claire Fyson of Climate Analytics. The discussions about “abatement” would give the false impression that CCS enables the continued large-scale use of fossil fuels while maintaining the 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement. nib

Energy transition: Germany plans to train international specialists

Germany wants to expand its commitment to the vocational training of skilled workers for the global energy transition. The BMZ cooperates with around 60 countries in the field of vocational education and training, and around one-fifth of the projects to date have already focused on energy transition skills. This share is set to increase by 2025. German government representatives announced this yesterday at COP28 when they presented Germany’s contribution to the global energy transition.

According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), the renewable energy sector will create more than 100 million jobs worldwide by 2030. The German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) has developed an action plan to advise partner countries and support the expansion of science centers.

Commitment to a just energy transition

Germany is also involved in various energy transition partnerships (JETPs). The commitment was specified yesterday: Germany intends to provide South Africa with 500 million euros for this purpose. The money will be provided in the form of low-interest KfW loans. South Africa will have to pay less interest on the loans than usual. As part of the JETP with Indonesia, the (BMZ) plans to develop follow-up and conversion plans for Indonesian coal-fired power plants. kul

‘Global Cooling Pledge’ promises a greener cooling sector

Over 60 countries signed the “Global Cooling Pledge” yesterday at COP28. In it, they promise to reduce their emissions from cooling across all economic sectors by at least 68 percent worldwide (2022-2050). They aim to strengthen international cooperation for more climate action in the cooling sector, increase energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions through “international collaboration” on emissions targets.

Among other things, the cooling sector generates greenhouse gases due to its electricity demand. Added to this is the climate impact of leaking coolants, which is particularly high compared to CO2. These also include hydrofluorocarbons, for example.

The pledge aims to give particularly vulnerable people better access to sustainable cooling. According to the UN Development Program (UNEP), around 1.2 billion people in Africa and Asia have no access to cooling, which is “essential for global food security and vaccine delivery.”

Passive cooling, efficiency and reduction of coolants

The higher the temperature on the planet rises, the more cooling will be needed, said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN development agency UNEP in Dubai. She presented a new report at COP28 that shows how emissions from cooling could be reduced. “Keeping it chill: How to meet cooling demands while cutting emissions” has four core messages:

If nothing changes, greenhouse gas emissions from the cooling sector will more than double by 2050, accounting for more than ten percent of global emissions.
However, decisive “key measures” could reduce the growing energy demand and thus reduce the predicted emissions by 60 to 96 percent. This would avoid at least 3.8 billion tons of CO2 equivalents.
This could save households one trillion US dollars annually and the electricity sector up to five trillion.
3.5 billion people would have access to cooling.

“The solutions are available today,” says Andersen. According to the report, passive cooling, i.e., shading or improved air circulation, higher energy efficiency standards and a faster reduction in climate-damaging refrigerants, can already achieve a 60 percent reduction in emissions. If emissions from the electricity sector were to fall rapidly towards zero, then 96 percent would be achievable. ae

A strategy against populist attacks on climate policy

By Fritz Reusswig

Porträtfoto eines Mannes im schwarzen Poloshirt und mit Brille — Fritz Reusswig is a sociologist and philosopher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Along with Beate Küpper, social psychologist and professor at the Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences, Reusswig wrote the climate chapter of the current Mitte study, which assesses right-wing extremist sentiments in German society.

The latest Mitte study by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung on right-wing extremist sentiments in German society shows: Climate action is increasingly becoming a polarizing issue. Its populist opponents are mobilizing far into the center of society. What would be a good counter-strategy?

The results of the latest “Mitte” study are alarming: Right-wing populist and far-right positions are gaining ground all the way to the center of German society. At the same time, we are observing that climate change and climate policy are being overshadowed by other issues and – most worryingly – are increasingly being drawn into social polarization.

This is largely a consequence of the success of right-wing populist discourse and strategies. How did this happen? And what can be done about it?

Despite all the divergences, the massive increase in research on populism can be summarized in such a way that populism – as a discourse and as a political actor – boils down to three polarizations:

Good versus evil,
corrupt elite against the people,
the supposed “moral majority” of the people against “evil minorities.”

Resistance grows, the debate is polarized – what does this mean for the climate?

In terms of populist communicative strategy on climate issues, this means:

They do not portray climate policy as a “good” cause that is in the overarching interests of humanity, but as a partisan and self-serving ideology of certain social and political groups.
The German government’s climate policy is seen as an attempt by a corrupt political class that is completely detached from the people and their problems to exercise rule and serve specific ideological interests. In other words, climate policy is directed against the people.
In the populist narrative, social groups that want and support climate policy are an “evil” minority that either act purely selfishly, such as wind power operators, or are ideologically interested in social hegemony – and who also cultivate their urban-green privileges, but want to impose a green lifestyle and their own interpretations of the world on others.

The consequences of this strategy so far: Resistance to climate policy has increased and become tougher at a local level. The social discourse is polarized, the goal is to devalue and prevent climate action.

Four attitudes on the climate

In the Mitte study, we divided the German population into four groups according to their opinions on climate policy:

Climate progressives – those who favor a stronger expansion of renewable energies, desire more citizen participation and are more sympathetic to climate protests. That is 50.8 percent of the population.
Climate regressives – who neither want the expansion of renewables nor have any sympathy for protests. They believe the energy transition is too expensive and see climate action as eco-terrorism against the population. They make up 15.4 percent.
Indifferent – who are hardly interested in the issue: 19.4 percent.
Ambivalent – who are in favor of the renewable energy expansion, but at the same time consider the energy transition too expensive, are in favor of adaptation instead of climate change mitigation and want to leave the energy transition to the experts. They make up 14.4 percent of the population.

Opponents of climate policy are a minority

The climate regressives have largely adopted the populist anti-climate narrative. This is also supported by the fact that their share in East Germany (22.9 percent) is significantly higher than in West Germany (13.6 percent) – which is consistent with the higher election results for the right-wing AfD party in East Germany.

The climate progressives are in the majority, debunking the populist claim of “minority politics.” But firstly, this can change quickly, and secondly, some climate progressives are also dissatisfied with the German government’s climate policy. For example, they want more citizen participation.

Rays of hope and possible solutions

So, what can be done to convince people to engage in climate action? Some rays of hope and possible solutions can be derived from the results of the Mitte study.

Only 44.7 percent of AfD voters are clearly climate-regressive. The majority are not – and 16.5 percent are even climate-progressive.
A look at the migration of voters in the last state elections reveals a striking trend: The AfD also won votes from the Left, the Social Democratic Party and even the Greens. The primary motivating factor was migration policy, not climate policy. This means that the more successful the AfD becomes, the more people who are much more progressive on climate policy than the party’s officials want them to be will vote for them.
Of course, it is not enough to wait for a more climate-friendly AfD policy – or even the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), who are also currently not serving their climate-progressive voter base. We need consistent climate protection backed by social justice, technical innovation and citizen participation. For example, in the design of the planned climate money.

Support for municipalities, adaptation, the good cause

Germany’s municipalities must benefit much more from the energy transition, and some examples show that this is possible. Climate action can be integrated as part of future-oriented regional development and should be supported by new constellations of stakeholders – including the business community. The long-standing district administrator of the Rhine-Hunsrück district, for example – a CDU politician – systematically promoted the expansion of renewables in his district and ensured that the municipalities benefited from this. Today, they are among the financially strongest municipalities in Rhineland-Palatinate. The current initiative by the German Economy Minister to link climate action with an industrial policy strategy is also a step in the right direction.
However, small municipalities, in particular, are massively overburdened with the challenges and tasks associated with the energy transition, as they are the first to be approached by citizens – whether they are responsible or not. We need to build up expertise and mobile information and conflict resolution units to help prepare local politicians in terms of argumentation and conflict management. And, if possible, before the excavators arrive.
Climate adaptation is much less controversial than climate action. Climate change threatens to destroy the foundations of life in many regions – water, forests, ecosystems, agriculture. Local politics can be very effective here, and it can force the populists to show their colors: Are you for or against protecting our country?
Studies show that opponents of the energy transition have strong but negative emotions, while supporters have positive but weak emotions. Proponents must combine their good and rational arguments with a comprehensible and positive emotional commitment. Not only do people need to understand their good reasons, they also need to feel that they are fighting with all their heart for a cause that is important to everyone, rather than carrying out instructions from the top.

More democracy, not less!

Right-wing and, in the future, perhaps also left-wing populist actors are trying to brand the climate issue as a polarizing negative topic. This cannot be countered by counter-polarization and exclusion – especially not towards ordinary citizens. What is needed here are inclusive strategies that address the fault lines of opposition and the opportunities of energy and climate policy that have so far been underutilized.

Incidentally, it can also be quite interesting to have someone tell you in private and in a protected atmosphere why they are against a particular project or climate action in general. This not only builds trust, but may also help improve the political design of the energy transition. Because that is what we have to fight for: We need more democracy here, too, not less.

Fritz Reusswig is a sociologist and philosopher and works as a Research Associate at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). He researches the social climate discourse and advises German federal states and municipalities on climate action and climate adaptation issues. Together with Beate Küpper (Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences), he authored the climate chapter of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s latest “Mitte” study.

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Bernhard
Pötter

Alexandra
Endres

Christiane
Kühl

Lisa
Kuner

Lukas
Knigge

Malte
Kreutzfeldt

Nico
Beckert

Dear reader,

COP28 offers many alarming messages, but always a little bit of hope. A new study on climate tipping points shows that our planet’s ecosystem could reach tipping points sooner than expected. But politicians can counteract this with positive, social tipping points. The energy sector has almost reached such a positive tipping point. Nico Beckert reports on the impending dangers and possible approaches to mitigate them.

In keeping with today’s urbanization and cities day, we also present some background on the role of cities in climate change: They are particularly vulnerable and receive far too little attention in national climate plans. And Manuel Berkel explains what the recently adopted EU hydrogen quotas mean for the industrial and transport sectors.

We also look at new plans for Germany’s contribution to the global energy transition, the current status of the negotiating text for the Global Stocktake, and how green cooling systems could look in a hotter future.

Keep a cool head!

Your
Lisa Kuner

Study: Tipping points as disasters – or as positive change

By

Nico Beckert

In a study published today, scientists warn that climate tipping points “pose threats of a magnitude never faced by humanity.” Countries must quickly phase out fossil fuels and include tipping points in their national climate targets (NDCs) and the Global Stocktake.

“The world is on a catastrophic path” is the clear message of the study, which involved over 200 scientists and summarizes previous research on the topic. Exceeding these tipping points threatens the stability of many societies, the study says.

Around the world, for instance, important food-growing regions are being changed to such an extent that agriculture in its current form is hardly possible. However, politics can also bring about positive tipping points that could stop global warming faster. The energy sector has almost reached such a positive tipping point.

‘The world is on a catastrophic path’

According to the new study, some negative tipping points could already occur “with less global warming than previously assumed.” The world is running out of time: Some of them threaten to tip over in the next few decades – in some cases, this tipping point cannot be reversed. However, Jonathan Donges from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) also emphasizes that not all tipping points are necessarily irreversible.

Even at the current level of global warming, there is a risk that five major tipping points will soon be exceeded:

Unstable ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica. Both tipping points could soon occur. However, the melting would not happen abruptly, but over centuries.
The thawing of permafrost soils – this is considered a regional tipping point.
Changes in the subpolar North Atlantic Gyre, an ocean current in the North Atlantic that stretches as far as Norway.
The dying of warm-water corals.

The researchers identified a total of 26 tipping points. Other studies estimate 14 or 16 tipping points.

Effects: Food cultivation more difficult, flooding, trillions in losses

If global warming exceeds the 2-degree threshold, the Amazon rainforest would also be at risk of “partial collapse.” Global warming would contribute to the rainforest losing its canopy in certain regions, drying out and thus regressing.

Crossing the tipping points would have a dramatic impact on water and food supplies, health, local communities and national economies:

The death of the Amazon rainforest would expose six million people to extreme heat stress and cause between 1 and 3.5 trillion US dollars in economic damage.
The melting of the Antarctic ice sheet could increase sea levels by two meters by 2100 and lead to annual flooding affecting 480 million people.
A collapse of the North Atlantic Current would jeopardize the food supply of hundreds of millions of people.

However, the study has also been criticized. Gerrit Lohmann, a climate scientist at the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, called the study too certain in some areas and “understated” the uncertainties that still exist in tipping points research. For some tipping points, it is not yet entirely clear at which temperature rises they will occur. More research is needed in some areas, he said. However, the authors of the study also note this.

Politics can bring about positive tipping points

The researchers say that in order to prevent entire earth systems from tipping over, countries need to bring about positive tipping points. The energy system has almost reached such a tipping point: Renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels in many countries. This could lead to more demand for more green technologies like EVs and heat pumps. Developments in one area, therefore, positively affect other high-emission areas.

They also identified the potential for positive tipping points in transport and nutrition. Low-carbon modes of transportation would have to become more attractive than fossil fuels – for example, by making cities more attractive for walking and cycling and improving local public transport. The same applies to food: Meatless food should become more attractive and cheaper; farmers should be provided with other sources of income, for example, by paying them to conserve the environment.

However, policymakers would have to actively initiate such positive tipping points and work towards them by:

promoting technological innovations and ensuring their global distribution;
providing money
bringing about changes in behaviors and norms;
guiding political and social behavior in a more positive direction, for example, by introducing energy efficiency standards for buildings and appliances.

The scientists recommend setting up climate clubs of frontrunner countries. For example, the EU, the USA and China could join forces and ban the sale of combustion engines. This would accelerate the positive tipping point towards more EVs. The financial system would also have to be restructured in such a way that it accelerates positive tipping points.

EU: What the hydrogen quotas mean for industry and transport

By

Manuel Berkel

The existence of many European economic sectors depends on access to cheap green hydrogen. The revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), which came into force on November 20, sets fixed quotas for industry and transportation.

EU RED III quotas for 2030 for green hydrogen and its derivatives (in EU jargon, “renewable liquid and gaseous fuels of non-biological origin” or RFNBO for short):

Industry: 42 percent for energy and non-energy purposes, for example, in the chemical, fertilizer and steel industries. The quota will increase to 60 percent as early as 2035.
Transport: One percent for all means of transportation in total. However, according to the fuel association en2x, since the RED allows RFNBOs to be credited twice their energy content for total traffic, the quota is effectively only 0.5 percent.

Unclear requirements for air traffic

Separate quotas for e-fuels apply for individual modes of transport in 2030:

Maritime transport: According to RED III, a target value of 1.2 percent RFNBO applies to EU countries with seaports. However, a higher weighting factor of 1.5 also applies here, meaning that the effective quota is only 0.8 percent.
Aviation: According to the new ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, a mandatory quota for “synthetic aviation fuels” of 1.2 percent will apply on average in 2030/31 – increasing to 35 percent by 2050. Together with aviation biofuels, even higher shares apply for “sustainable aviation fuels” (SAF) – 70 percent by 2050, for example. However, RED III also sets a factor of 1.5 for RFNBO in aviation. Therefore, the quota for 2030/31 would also be 0.8 percent. Burkhard Hoffmann from the Stiftung Umweltenergierecht explains that it is unclear to what extent the factor from the RED also applies to ReFuelEU Aviation.
Car transport: The EU fleet limits for trucks are still under negotiation, but quotas for trucks are considered unlikely. The latest amendment to the fleet limits did not include mandatory e-fuel quotas for passenger cars. However, as cars currently consume almost five times as much fuel as airplanes and ships combined, cars and trucks will probably have to use e-fuels after all in order to achieve the overall quota for transport. The pressure would decrease if the number of electric cars were to increase rapidly by 2030.

Companies criticize lack of private capital

At the start of the week, several European companies pushed for the EU to provide additional funding for the hydrogen economy. In a joint statement, the heads of the German companies Sunfire, BayWa r.e. and Enapter, among others, wrote that existing funds were insufficient to compensate for the lack of private investment.

However, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did not announce any new financing on Monday, but rather the second call for tenders by the European Hydrogen Bank, which will be launched in the spring. In addition, one of the world’s largest production plants for green hydrogen and ammonia with ten gigawatts is to be built in the Brazilian state of Piauí with EU funding, which is to arrive at a terminal on the Croatian island of Krk. For comparison, Ten gigawatts corresponds to the German government’s target for the total output of domestic electrolyzers in 2030.

Background: cities and regions

By

Lisa Kuner

What it’s about:

Cities and regions are at the forefront of the fight against the climate crisis. Urban centers are heating up particularly fast. Local administrations and governments must take action and promote innovation. In the EU, for example, local governments are in charge of implementing 70 percent of all regulations. At the same time, their interests sometimes clash with those of national governments. And local actors often lack the necessary financial resources for efficient climate action.

Why it’s important:

Cities generate more than 75 percent of global emissions – heating and cooling are particularly important, large amounts of waste are produced and vehicles emit a lot of emissions. By 2050, around two-thirds of humanity will live in cities.

The consequences of the climate crisis are particularly noticeable in cities. They are often located on rivers, lakes or mountain slopes, where they are severely affected by the consequences of extreme weather events. This is also evident when looking at the COP28 host city: Analyses show that Dubai would be largely under water due to rising sea levels in the event of global warming of 2.9 degrees.

These are the details:

The Local Governments and Municipal Authorities (LGMA) Constituency represents subnational governments in the UNFCCC process. Before COP28, the cities and regions it represents had already formulated their position on tackling climate change in a statement. Among other things, they call for

Recognizing subnational actors more strongly
Promoting regional adaptation
Improving financing of local climate action
Better integrate subnational voices into the UNFCCC process
Promoting multilevel partnerships

For example, the C40 and ICLEI networks also represent cities and regions. At the start of the COP, the needs of cities were prioritized with the Local Climate Action Summit (LCAS) with more than 500 local leaders. The Multilevel Action, Urbanization and Built Environment theme day on December 6 will also focus on this topic.

A Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships was formed at the LCAS. The initiative demands better involvement of local and regional players for more efficient climate action.

This is being criticized:

Local actors often complain about insufficient financial resources for efficient climate action – especially for adaptation, as the Adaptation Gap Report shows. Over the next 15 years, an estimated 93 trillion US dollars of investment will be needed for sustainable infrastructure – a large proportion of this in cities and at the regional level.

Cities and regions also regularly call for them to be better integrated into climate action processes because important decisions are mainly made at the national level. In this context, there is repeated criticism that cities are not sufficiently represented in NDCs.

This could be an outcome at COP28:

Mobility, buildings and food systems – these are just some of the topics discussed at the climate conference regarding cities. Only limited tangible results are expected. Instead, the climate conference could serve as a platform for presenting local solutions and networking ambitious politicians. One such example is the City Climate Finance Gap Fund, managed by the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, which provides start-up financing for investments in sustainable infrastructure. The ministerial on the topic will also identify levers for local climate financing.

Second GST draft: many options, many problems

A first draft of the negotiating text for the Global Stocktake (GST) was published on Tuesday morning. It will also be the final document of COP28, as there will be no separate cover decision this year. It contains numerous options for the most disputed issues. This means that a distinction is made between two mostly conflicting positions. The third option is to scrap the entire paragraph.

Fossil fuel phase out or phase down

The draft text includes the option of an “orderly and just phase-out of fossil fuels” – a phase-out without backdoors for CCS and restrictions on emissions from fossil fuels, but also without a specific year. The second option is “accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels.”

However, there is also the addition that the “consumption” of fossil fuels should be reduced and net-zero in energy systems should be achieved by 2050. Linda Kalcher from Brussels-based think tank Strategic Perspectives considers this addition problematic, as it shifts the responsibility for reducing emissions entirely onto consumers and leaves oil and gas-producing countries scott-free.

Coal phase-out by 2030 and net zero by 2040

An ambitious formulation on coal, which is unlikely to make it into the final text, envisages “a rapid phase out of unabated coal power this decade.” China and India cannot agree to this as this will prevent them from switching their economies by 2030. Revenues are likely to decline.

Another issue is the call on countries to communicate net-zero targets by the next COP. Option 1 would require countries to make these targets 1.5-degree-compatible. However, developing countries reject this, as it does not differentiate between the poorer countries and the wealthier main contributors to climate change.

Option 2 does not appeal to developed countries, as it requires them to achieve net zero emissions by 2040 and negative greenhouse gas emissions “as early as possible.” For instance, Germany’s current target for net zero is 2045, while the EU wants to be climate-neutral by 2050.

Veiled CBAM criticism

One proposal for a wording is likely to mainly raise eyebrows in Europe. It states that climate action measures that restrict international trade should be avoided. As South Africa, in particular, has criticized the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) for doing just that, it is obvious where the finger is pointing. However, the USA will also feel addressed with its Inflation Reduction Act. China considers the IRA an unfair trade practice.

The new text is now undergoing further negotiations and will be discussed in the interim plenary session on Wednesday, the last day of the first COP week. As it is a negotiating text, there may still be numerous changes and mergers of options as the negotiations continue. luk

Report: CCS could leave more emissions than expected

According to calculations by Climate Analytics, the broad use of carbon capture technologies could reduce up to 86 gigatons of greenhouse gas emissions less than assumed by 2050. This is because, in practice, CCS plants often capture much less CO2 than would be necessary to reduce emissions effectively. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines mitigated emissions (“abatement”) as a reduction of 95 percent. However, existing CCS plants often only capture 50 percent or less of emissions.

If CCS is used on a large scale and the phase-out of fossil fuels is delayed as a result, there is a risk that emissions will remain at a high level. The researchers based their calculations on an IPCC scenario assuming the highest share of CCS expansion. The 86 gigatons of emissions (CO2 equivalents) are the difference between a capture rate of 50 percent and a rate of 95 percent, plus higher methane emissions, because here, too, the capture rates are often lower in reality.

“The banner ‘abated’ is already serving as a trojan horse, allowing fossil fuel projects with underperforming capture rates and limited action to cut upstream production emissions to proceed,” criticizes Claire Fyson of Climate Analytics. The discussions about “abatement” would give the false impression that CCS enables the continued large-scale use of fossil fuels while maintaining the 1.5°C limit set out in the Paris Agreement. nib

Energy transition: Germany plans to train international specialists

Germany wants to expand its commitment to the vocational training of skilled workers for the global energy transition. The BMZ cooperates with around 60 countries in the field of vocational education and training, and around one-fifth of the projects to date have already focused on energy transition skills. This share is set to increase by 2025. German government representatives announced this yesterday at COP28 when they presented Germany’s contribution to the global energy transition.

According to the International Labor Organization (ILO), the renewable energy sector will create more than 100 million jobs worldwide by 2030. The German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) has developed an action plan to advise partner countries and support the expansion of science centers.

Commitment to a just energy transition

Germany is also involved in various energy transition partnerships (JETPs). The commitment was specified yesterday: Germany intends to provide South Africa with 500 million euros for this purpose. The money will be provided in the form of low-interest KfW loans. South Africa will have to pay less interest on the loans than usual. As part of the JETP with Indonesia, the (BMZ) plans to develop follow-up and conversion plans for Indonesian coal-fired power plants. kul

‘Global Cooling Pledge’ promises a greener cooling sector

Over 60 countries signed the “Global Cooling Pledge” yesterday at COP28. In it, they promise to reduce their emissions from cooling across all economic sectors by at least 68 percent worldwide (2022-2050). They aim to strengthen international cooperation for more climate action in the cooling sector, increase energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions through “international collaboration” on emissions targets.

Among other things, the cooling sector generates greenhouse gases due to its electricity demand. Added to this is the climate impact of leaking coolants, which is particularly high compared to CO2. These also include hydrofluorocarbons, for example.

The pledge aims to give particularly vulnerable people better access to sustainable cooling. According to the UN Development Program (UNEP), around 1.2 billion people in Africa and Asia have no access to cooling, which is “essential for global food security and vaccine delivery.”

Passive cooling, efficiency and reduction of coolants

The higher the temperature on the planet rises, the more cooling will be needed, said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN development agency UNEP in Dubai. She presented a new report at COP28 that shows how emissions from cooling could be reduced. “Keeping it chill: How to meet cooling demands while cutting emissions” has four core messages:

If nothing changes, greenhouse gas emissions from the cooling sector will more than double by 2050, accounting for more than ten percent of global emissions.
However, decisive “key measures” could reduce the growing energy demand and thus reduce the predicted emissions by 60 to 96 percent. This would avoid at least 3.8 billion tons of CO2 equivalents.
This could save households one trillion US dollars annually and the electricity sector up to five trillion.
3.5 billion people would have access to cooling.

“The solutions are available today,” says Andersen. According to the report, passive cooling, i.e., shading or improved air circulation, higher energy efficiency standards and a faster reduction in climate-damaging refrigerants, can already achieve a 60 percent reduction in emissions. If emissions from the electricity sector were to fall rapidly towards zero, then 96 percent would be achievable. ae

A strategy against populist attacks on climate policy

By Fritz Reusswig

The latest Mitte study by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung on right-wing extremist sentiments in German society shows: Climate action is increasingly becoming a polarizing issue. Its populist opponents are mobilizing far into the center of society. What would be a good counter-strategy?

The results of the latest “Mitte” study are alarming: Right-wing populist and far-right positions are gaining ground all the way to the center of German society. At the same time, we are observing that climate change and climate policy are being overshadowed by other issues and – most worryingly – are increasingly being drawn into social polarization.

This is largely a consequence of the success of right-wing populist discourse and strategies. How did this happen? And what can be done about it?

Despite all the divergences, the massive increase in research on populism can be summarized in such a way that populism – as a discourse and as a political actor – boils down to three polarizations:

Good versus evil,
corrupt elite against the people,
the supposed “moral majority” of the people against “evil minorities.”

Resistance grows, the debate is polarized – what does this mean for the climate?

In terms of populist communicative strategy on climate issues, this means:

They do not portray climate policy as a “good” cause that is in the overarching interests of humanity, but as a partisan and self-serving ideology of certain social and political groups.
The German government’s climate policy is seen as an attempt by a corrupt political class that is completely detached from the people and their problems to exercise rule and serve specific ideological interests. In other words, climate policy is directed against the people.
In the populist narrative, social groups that want and support climate policy are an “evil” minority that either act purely selfishly, such as wind power operators, or are ideologically interested in social hegemony – and who also cultivate their urban-green privileges, but want to impose a green lifestyle and their own interpretations of the world on others.

The consequences of this strategy so far: Resistance to climate policy has increased and become tougher at a local level. The social discourse is polarized, the goal is to devalue and prevent climate action.

Four attitudes on the climate

In the Mitte study, we divided the German population into four groups according to their opinions on climate policy:

Climate progressives – those who favor a stronger expansion of renewable energies, desire more citizen participation and are more sympathetic to climate protests. That is 50.8 percent of the population.
Climate regressives – who neither want the expansion of renewables nor have any sympathy for protests. They believe the energy transition is too expensive and see climate action as eco-terrorism against the population. They make up 15.4 percent.
Indifferent – who are hardly interested in the issue: 19.4 percent.
Ambivalent – who are in favor of the renewable energy expansion, but at the same time consider the energy transition too expensive, are in favor of adaptation instead of climate change mitigation and want to leave the energy transition to the experts. They make up 14.4 percent of the population.

Opponents of climate policy are a minority

The climate regressives have largely adopted the populist anti-climate narrative. This is also supported by the fact that their share in East Germany (22.9 percent) is significantly higher than in West Germany (13.6 percent) – which is consistent with the higher election results for the right-wing AfD party in East Germany.

The climate progressives are in the majority, debunking the populist claim of “minority politics.” But firstly, this can change quickly, and secondly, some climate progressives are also dissatisfied with the German government’s climate policy. For example, they want more citizen participation.

Rays of hope and possible solutions

So, what can be done to convince people to engage in climate action? Some rays of hope and possible solutions can be derived from the results of the Mitte study.

Only 44.7 percent of AfD voters are clearly climate-regressive. The majority are not – and 16.5 percent are even climate-progressive.
A look at the migration of voters in the last state elections reveals a striking trend: The AfD also won votes from the Left, the Social Democratic Party and even the Greens. The primary motivating factor was migration policy, not climate policy. This means that the more successful the AfD becomes, the more people who are much more progressive on climate policy than the party’s officials want them to be will vote for them.
Of course, it is not enough to wait for a more climate-friendly AfD policy – or even the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), who are also currently not serving their climate-progressive voter base. We need consistent climate protection backed by social justice, technical innovation and citizen participation. For example, in the design of the planned climate money.

Support for municipalities, adaptation, the good cause

Germany’s municipalities must benefit much more from the energy transition, and some examples show that this is possible. Climate action can be integrated as part of future-oriented regional development and should be supported by new constellations of stakeholders – including the business community. The long-standing district administrator of the Rhine-Hunsrück district, for example – a CDU politician – systematically promoted the expansion of renewables in his district and ensured that the municipalities benefited from this. Today, they are among the financially strongest municipalities in Rhineland-Palatinate. The current initiative by the German Economy Minister to link climate action with an industrial policy strategy is also a step in the right direction.
However, small municipalities, in particular, are massively overburdened with the challenges and tasks associated with the energy transition, as they are the first to be approached by citizens – whether they are responsible or not. We need to build up expertise and mobile information and conflict resolution units to help prepare local politicians in terms of argumentation and conflict management. And, if possible, before the excavators arrive.
Climate adaptation is much less controversial than climate action. Climate change threatens to destroy the foundations of life in many regions – water, forests, ecosystems, agriculture. Local politics can be very effective here, and it can force the populists to show their colors: Are you for or against protecting our country?
Studies show that opponents of the energy transition have strong but negative emotions, while supporters have positive but weak emotions. Proponents must combine their good and rational arguments with a comprehensible and positive emotional commitment. Not only do people need to understand their good reasons, they also need to feel that they are fighting with all their heart for a cause that is important to everyone, rather than carrying out instructions from the top.

More democracy, not less!

Right-wing and, in the future, perhaps also left-wing populist actors are trying to brand the climate issue as a polarizing negative topic. This cannot be countered by counter-polarization and exclusion – especially not towards ordinary citizens. What is needed here are inclusive strategies that address the fault lines of opposition and the opportunities of energy and climate policy that have so far been underutilized.

Incidentally, it can also be quite interesting to have someone tell you in private and in a protected atmosphere why they are against a particular project or climate action in general. This not only builds trust, but may also help improve the political design of the energy transition. Because that is what we have to fight for: We need more democracy here, too, not less.

Fritz Reusswig is a sociologist and philosopher and works as a Research Associate at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). He researches the social climate discourse and advises German federal states and municipalities on climate action and climate adaptation issues. Together with Beate Küpper (Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences), he authored the climate chapter of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s latest “Mitte” study.

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Bernhard
Pötter

Alexandra
Endres

Christiane
Kühl

Lisa
Kuner

Lukas
Knigge

Malte
Kreutzfeldt

Nico
Beckert

Feature

Study: Tipping points as disasters – or as positive change

‘The world is on a catastrophic path’

Effects: Food cultivation more difficult, flooding, trillions in losses

Politics can bring about positive tipping points

EU: What the hydrogen quotas mean for industry and transport

Unclear requirements for air traffic

Companies criticize lack of private capital

Background: cities and regions

What it’s about:

Why it’s important:

These are the details:

This is being criticized:

This could be an outcome at COP28:

Events

News

Second GST draft: many options, many problems

Fossil fuel phase out or phase down

Coal phase-out by 2030 and net zero by 2040

Veiled CBAM criticism

Report: CCS could leave more emissions than expected

Energy transition: Germany plans to train international specialists

Commitment to a just energy transition

‘Global Cooling Pledge’ promises a greener cooling sector

Passive cooling, efficiency and reduction of coolants

Opinion

A strategy against populist attacks on climate policy

Resistance grows, the debate is polarized – what does this mean for the climate?

Four attitudes on the climate

Opponents of climate policy are a minority

Rays of hope and possible solutions

Support for municipalities, adaptation, the good cause

More democracy, not less!

Climate.Table editorial team

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Feature

Study: Tipping points as disasters – or as positive change

‘The world is on a catastrophic path’

Effects: Food cultivation more difficult, flooding, trillions in losses

Politics can bring about positive tipping points

EU: What the hydrogen quotas mean for industry and transport

Unclear requirements for air traffic

Companies criticize lack of private capital

Background: cities and regions

What it’s about:

Why it’s important:

These are the details:

This is being criticized:

This could be an outcome at COP28:

Events

News

Second GST draft: many options, many problems

Fossil fuel phase out or phase down

Coal phase-out by 2030 and net zero by 2040

Veiled CBAM criticism

Report: CCS could leave more emissions than expected

Energy transition: Germany plans to train international specialists

Commitment to a just energy transition

‘Global Cooling Pledge’ promises a greener cooling sector

Passive cooling, efficiency and reduction of coolants

Opinion

A strategy against populist attacks on climate policy

Resistance grows, the debate is polarized – what does this mean for the climate?

Four attitudes on the climate

Opponents of climate policy are a minority

Rays of hope and possible solutions

Support for municipalities, adaptation, the good cause

More democracy, not less!

Climate.Table editorial team

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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