COP16: Lots of ambition, few specifics+ Floating solar systems + Open questions on NCQG

Dear reader,

Is a lack of money preventing the world from being saved? Over the next few weeks, heads of state will hold a summit marathon involving the Climate COP, the Biodiversity COP (COP16) and the G20 summit. Today, Claire Stam analyzes why the Biodiversity Conference faces similar challenges to the Climate Conference in November: Who will pay how much, and how can more private funding be mobilized for biodiversity conservation? Negotiators at the climate conference must also be willing to compromise, as we show in the news on the latest state of negotiations on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG).

Our latest text in our “Ideas for the Climate” series shows that many solutions to the climate crisis have long been available and “only” require funding. Nick Nuttall analyzes the many advantages of floating solar systems. Probably the biggest advantage: Solar systems on inland waters and reservoirs could solve the problem of competition for available space.

In today’s opinion piece, Till Kellerhoff and Peter Hennicke from the Club of Rome call for five U-turns to get climate action and environmental policy back on track. One of their proposals: Higher taxes for the rich – this would make ecological sense and strengthen cohesion and democracy. It could also help fund climate and environmental conservation, which brings us full circle to what will probably be the most important topic in the coming weeks.

Have an exciting read!

Your
Nico Beckert

COP16: Which topics will be important at the UN Biodiversity Conference in Cali

The UN Biodiversity Conference COP16 will soon be held in Cali, Colombia.

By

Claire Stam

The Biodiversity Conference (COP16) starts next week in Cali, Colombia (October 21 to November 1). The focus will be on mobilizing enough funds for the conservation of biodiversity. Some countries rely on new, innovative funding sources, such as revenue from genetic data from plants and animals. Host country Colombia wants to combine climate action and biodiversity conservation and recently presented a 40 billion plan comparable to the Just Energy Transition Partnerships. However, many other countries are less ambitious and have not yet submitted national strategies to implement the resolutions of the last biodiversity COP in late 2022.

Only 25 countries have national plans to implement the 2022 resolutions

Colombia’s Environment Minister and COP16 President, Susana Muhamad, wants to elevate biodiversity loss to the same level as climate change in the global political discourse. According to Muhamad, humanity must make a “double movement”: a just decarbonization and the restoration of nature.

However, many countries participating in COP16 display less ambition. So far, only 25 countries have submitted national plans to implement the far-reaching resolutions of the last biodiversity conference in December 2022 – including many EU countries, China, Indonesia, Mexico and the EU. Germany has yet to submit a plan. The low number falls far short of expectations. In addition, there are already gaps between the national and global targets, says Juliette Landry, researcher for international biodiversity governance at the French think tank Iddri.

In December 2022, the 195 signatories to the Kunming-Montreal Agreement and the European Union pledged to take “urgent action” to protect biodiversity. The 2030 targets include:

placing 30 percent of the global land and water areas under protection;
“ensure that by 2030 at least 30 percent of areas of degraded terrestrial, inland water, and marine and coastal ecosystems are under effective restoration”;
phasing out subsidies for ecologically harmful activities such as mining or industrial fishing, and
protecting biodiversity through climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

COP16 aims to encourage more countries to submit more detailed and ambitious national plans.

Funding: Large gap between demand and pledged funds

The last conference also saw remarkable progress on financing. The aim is to mobilize “at least 200 billion dollars per year” by 2030. Developed countries pledged public funding for developing countries of “at least 20 billion dollars per year by 2025” and “at least 30 billion dollars per year by 2030” – the latter represents a threefold increase on current funding. There is a significant difference between what is needed – some experts estimate it to be even higher than the 200 billion US dollars pledged – and the promised public funds will be mobilized through private funds. “No country will have enough public funds to achieve the goals of this agreement. So we need to focus on mobilizing private finance and investment,” says Hugo-Maria Schally, advisor for international environmental negotiations at the European Commission. He refers to biodiversity projects of the European Central Bank and the European Investment Bank.

In her speech at the DLD Nature Conference in Munich on September 13, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a case for “nature credits.” Pointing to the ongoing collapse of biodiversity and the “clear economic case for preserving and restoring nature,” she defended what she sees as a “win-win” system. Inspired by the European carbon market, this system would allow local communities or farmers to be “rewarded” for the ecosystem services they provide. The European Commission is currently working with several Member States on pilot projects – one of which is in France. The aim is to quantify the value of ecosystems and introduce mechanisms to remunerate the stakeholders involved.

COP16 host Colombia is optimistic, however, that compromises will be reached on funding. According to Susana Muhamad, Colombia is in an ideal position to build bridges between the “Global South and the Global North.” She pointed out that Colombia is a member of both the G77 negotiating group and the OECD, “which allows the different blocs to be brought closer together.” Just at the end of September, Colombia presented a 40-billion-dollar investment plan to tackle the energy transition while investing in nature conservation and the restoration of ecosystems. The plan also provides for investment in sustainable agriculture and ecotourism. Colombia hopes the plan will be supported by international donors, including Germany.

Ecological transformation: Business opportunities worth more than ten trillion US dollars

What remains open is the role of the private sector when it comes to implementing the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). According to the Future of Nature and Business Report of the World Economic Forum (WEF), eco-friendly solutions offer business opportunities worth more than ten trillion US dollars, which could create 395 million new jobs by 2030.

However, according to a WEF transformation report, while most of the world’s top 500 companies have a climate target, only five percent have one for biodiversity. The WEF argues that, given the global economy’s dependence on nature, the private sector must urgently contribute to halting and reversing the loss of nature in this decade.

More money through the use of genetic resources?

Great hopes are attached to the growing commercial use of genetic resources. Western companies increasingly decode the genetic data of species in countries of the Global South and utilize their findings in medicine or cosmetics, for instance. One of the major challenges of the biodiversity COP is how such profits generated from the natural resources of the countries of the South can be better shared between the companies and the countries of origin.

On October 14, the EU environment ministers approved conclusions for the World Convention on Biological Diversity. The ministers reaffirmed their willingness to agree on modalities for sharing the benefits from the use of “digital sequence information on genetic resources,” i.e., digitized gene sequences stored in databases. At COP15 in 2022, negotiators failed to reach an agreement on this complex issue. Collaboration: Carsten Hübner

Ideas for the Climate: ‘Floatovoltaics’ – The next big step for solar power

Floating solar system on an inland waterway in the Netherlands.

By

Nick Nuttall

Deploying the emerging technology of floating solar panels or “floatovoltaics” could significantly boost the climate footprint of hydroelectric power plants while perhaps countering emissions equal to today’s stock of fossil fuel power stations. Solar panels that can float on reservoirs or calm inland waters are a new, highly promising technology if planners balance social and environmental challenges, especially in developing countries.

Solar on reservoirs: The potential is huge

Some countries are already harvesting the opportunity. BP Batam, an Indonesian island between the Strait of Malacca and Singapore, is constructing what is being billed as the world’s largest floating solar project at its Duriangkang Reservoir. When completed, it will have an installed capacity of 2,000 megawatts.
By some estimates, covering 10 percent of the world’s hydropower reservoirs with floating solar systems, could install 4,000 gigawatts of green energy. This is roughly equal to the electricity-generating capacity of all the world’s fossil fuel plants.

Writing in the latest edition of Nature Sustainability and building on a previous paper in Nature, the researchers argue that co-locating floating solar or “floatovoltaics” is the most sensible first step. Some hydropower plants have bigger than intended carbon footprints, sometimes equal to a conventional coal or gas power station. That is because many have underwater, rotting vegetation emitting significant levels of methane – a greenhouse gas that is up to 80 times more warming than carbon dioxide. Integrating floating solar could allow around 50 percent of such hydro plants to offset a significant amount of methane.

Floating solar systems offer many advantages

Collocating with hydropower also enables easy access to the electricity grid – and there are further advantages:

Floating solar panels are naturally cooled by the water, which means their efficiency in converting sunlight into electricity could be 5 percent higher.
Floating solar could reduce evaporation, leaving more water in reservoirs for hydropower, irrigation and drinking water supplies.
However, perhaps the biggest opportunity focuses around reducing tensions over land use choices between renewable, agriculture and biodiversity.

By 2050, the United States may need as much as 61,000 square Km of land on which to deploy solar panels as part of its decarbonization strategies – this is an area larger than, for example, the Netherlands. “Land scarce nations such as Japan and South Korea might have to devote 5 percent of their land to solar farms,” say the scientists.
“The question where to put these panels isn’t trivial. There is fierce competition for land that is also needed for food production and biodiversity conservation,” they argue.

Solar systems: Disadvantages in deserts, competition for land

Currently, some developers are eyeing desert locations for a massive solar ramp-up. But modeling of the Sahara has indicated that large numbers of solar panels there could alter local temperatures and global air flows, aggravating, for example, droughts in the Amazon. In the Mojave Desert, the deployment of solar has triggered conflict with indigenous peoples as a result of the loss of their traditional cacti.

Rooftops, highways and car parks are good options but space is limited. Meanwhile, co-locating solar with agriculture is an option, but the dynamics of how food production will or will not be impacted remains a work in progress.

Floating solar panels require little additional technology to conventional solar arrays, only floats, waterproofing and cables anchored to the lakebed. If the potential of floating photovoltaics is to be realized, then planners need to consider social and environmental concerns. For example, citing too many on reservoirs popular with sailors or used by artisanal fishermen in Africa might bring conflict.
Surveys are also needed to ensure the technology does not lead to unforeseen consequences on freshwater biodiversity.

More and more countries opt for floating solar systems

Floating solar panels are also today slightly more expensive than land-based solar and there is evidence floating solar needs more regular cleaning. But this new frontier seems to be catching on. Brazil recently changed the law so that “floatovoltaics” and hydropower plants can be regulated together.

Projects are also being completed or underway in Thailand, Japan and China and in the Netherlands a small-scale floating solar array has been deployed with smart technology to track the sun and boost electricity production.

Climate in Numbers: Why the world approaches an ‘age of electricity’

The world is on the cusp of an “age of electricity,” as the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows in its World Energy Outlook presented on Wednesday. It predicts that demand for fossil fuels will peak by the end of the decade and then fall. After that, an oversupply of fossil fuels will probably lead to lower prices, which will allow countries to invest more in the expansion of clean energies, predicts IEA Chairman Fatih Birol. According to the IEA, investment in electricity grids and energy storage systems must increase if renewables are to continue to grow at such a rapid pace.

According to the IEA scenario based on current government policy, global oil demand will peak at just under 102 million barrels per day (mb/d) before 2030 and then drop back to the 2023 level (99 mb/d) by 2035. The decline will mainly be due to the transport transition and more electric vehicles. However, there is also the possibility of short-term oil supply bottlenecks due to the Middle East conflict.

Almost twice as much investment in renewables as in fossil fuels

The IEA reports a record amount of clean energy was commissioned worldwide last year, including more than 560 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity. Around two trillion US dollars are expected to be invested in clean energy in 2024 – almost twice as much as in fossil fuels.

On Monday, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and its forecast for next year:

In its monthly report on Monday, OPEC predicted that global oil demand would increase by 1.93 million barrels per day in 2024, compared to last month’s forecast of 2.03 million barrels per day.
OPEC lowered its forecast for global demand growth in 2025 from 1.74 million barrels to 1.64 million barrels per day.

OPEC: China’s electromobility curbs global oil demand growth

Most of the subdued growth for 2024 is caused by China. OPEC lowered its Chinese growth forecast from 650,000 barrels per day to 580,000 barrels. While government stimulus measures will support demand in the fourth quarter, oil consumption will be impacted by economic challenges and the shift to cleaner fuels, OPEC said. nib/rtr

Climate finance: Going to COP29 with these unanswered questions

Shortly before the next climate conference, many details of the new climate finance goal (New Collective Quantified Goal – NCQG) remain open. The co-chairs of the NCQG working group presented a “framework for a draft negotiating text” on Tuesday, outlining the different positions of countries.

The negotiators at COP29 must find compromises on the following issues:

Amount of the NCQG: The working group’s draft contains options ranging from a sum to be determined (“X”) to “at least 100 billion” and up to two trillion US dollars per year. There are also calls for additional commitments for exclusively public financial aid from developed countries amounting to 441 billion US dollars per year.
Structure of the target: It is unclear whether there will be a single climate finance target or whether the NCQG will be divided into a core of direct pledges of public funds from developed countries and a larger pot of mobilized private funds.
Which countries are to contribute: It is also unclear whether the donor base will be expanded. The proposal here is that countries should contribute above a certain level of income and/or emissions. However, observers do not expect a compromise on such criteria. The expansion of donors is one of the biggest sticking points of the NCQG. A compromise could consist of greater transparency on South-South flows. EU negotiators stress that they do not aim to change the legal status of new donor countries via Article 9.3 of the Paris Agreement. Nor do they want to shirk their responsibility to ensure that developed countries continue contributing the majority of climate financing. Instead, they call for the willingness of wealthy developing countries to make financial contributions and to disclose them.
Thematic focus: It remains open whether the NCQG will finance loss and damage compensation in addition to climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
Target year of the NCQG: There is only agreement that contributions from 2025 will count towards the new target. It is also unclear whether the sum represents an annual target or one to be achieved at a much later date – 2035 is under discussion.

There is agreement on the following: aspects:

Providing more public funds for climate finance.
Phasing out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” – either “as soon as possible” or “by 2035.”
Simplifying access to climate finance.
Taking into account the problem of debt sustainability. nib/luk

Agora study: How Germany can achieve net zero by 2045

Germany can still achieve the planned 2045 net zero, but politicians would have to take additional measures to achieve this. This is the key finding of a comprehensive study carried out by Prognos, the Institute for Applied Ecology, the Wuppertal Institute and the University of Kassel on behalf of the Agora think tank and published on Tuesday. The study found that it would take investments of around eleven percent of gross domestic product each year to achieve the climate target. However, eight percent of this is already earmarked for replacement investments, which simply need to be redirected towards green alternatives. This means that only three percent of GDP would need to be invested additionally. This corresponds to around 147 billion euros annually, of which three-quarters are private and one-quarter public.

The study authors expect Germany to reach its ambitious solar expansion target for 2030. However, wind power will fall short of its target due to the low expansion rates in recent years, despite a significant acceleration in the second half of the decade. The share of renewable energies in the electricity mix will therefore reach 80 percent in 2032 rather than 2030 as planned. The electricity produced will more than double by 2040 to meet the additional demand from the industrial, building and transport sectors, where electrification will have a significant impact in the coming years. The electricity price, including CO2, grid and storage costs excluding taxes, will initially remain stable at an average of 16 cents per kilowatt-hour and fall to 13 cents between 2030 and 2045.

Restriction of harmful technologies needed

In addition to market-based instruments such as the carbon price, which, according to the study, should be 134 euros in 2030 and 194 euros in 2045, the transition will also require market regulation. This includes restricting harmful technologies, financial aid for companies and households and targeted government infrastructure spending. “Our vision for the future is not a foregone conclusion. For it to become a reality, we need decisive political measures,” summarizes Simon Müller, Director of Agora Energiewende Deutschland. “The path to net zero requires an effort by all of society, but one from which all parts of society will benefit.” mkr

EU: Court of Auditors criticizes climate adaptation shortcomings

A special report by the European Court of Auditors criticizes the inadequate implementation of climate change adaptation measures in the EU. While a solid framework exists and the EU provides considerable financial resources, it found a lack of clear reporting mechanisms and measurable progress indicators. According to the auditors, the low level of awareness of EU instruments such as Climate-ADAPT at the municipal level is particularly problematic, hampering effective implementation.

The report also concludes that many of the funded projects tend to offer short-term solutions and are not sufficiently designed for long-term adaptation strategies, resulting in maladaptation, such as promoting large-scale irrigation in agriculture instead of focusing on less water-intensive alternatives. The use of nature-based solutions is also less widespread than would be necessary, given the challenges of climate change. Furthermore, there is criticism that the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) does not distinguish sufficiently between climate action and adaptation measures.

In order to combat climate change more effectively, the Court of Auditors recommends that the EU Commission introduce common indicators to measure progress, improve knowledge of adaptation instruments and ensure that EU-funded projects are geared towards long-term climate goals.

Global South still underfunded

The Climate Adaptation Finance Index 2024 published by “Brot für die Welt” on Tuesday also shows severe inequalities in the distribution of international adaptation finance. According to the index, 90 percent of the countries examined receive less funding than they would need due to their climate risks. Poor and climatically highly vulnerable regions are particularly affected, while wealthier countries benefit disproportionately.

Although Germany is one of the largest donors, its distribution of funds is also not in line with climate risks. The authors call for a fairer, risk-oriented distribution to support the Global South better. luk

Germany’s NECP: Germanwatch criticizes ‘major gaps’

Germany will miss its climate targets with its national energy and climate plan. This is the conclusion of an analysis by experts from Germanwatch. Germany is lagging far behind, particularly in the transport and buildings sector (ESR) and in natural sinks (LULUCF). The NECP does not contain enough information on how Germany intends to close the gaps in these sectors.

Germanwatch criticizes that Germany is relying heavily on the new EU emissions trading system (ETS 2) without offering realistic estimates of price developments and without taking into account the social acceptance of the CO2 price. The threat of missing the ESR targets could necessitate additional purchases of emissions certificates worth billions and therefore also represent a financial risk for the federal government. At the same time, cuts to the Climate and Transformation Fund jeopardize the implementation of many measures.

Social aspects such as energy poverty and the just transition are only marginally addressed in the NECP. The lack of public involvement and the lack of focus on social justice jeopardize the implementation of the climate targets. In addition, the plans are legally vulnerable because they lack sectoral needs assessments as well as detailed information on how the measures are to be financed. However, this is prescribed by the EU Governance Regulation. It is therefore urgently necessary to take more measures and develop a clear financing strategy, the authors demand.

Missing targets for renewables and energy efficiency

With regard to the European targets for renewable energies, the Germanwatch report notes a slight delay on the German side. Germany is not expected to reach the 42.5% target from the Renewable Energy Directive until 2031 instead of 2030, and the indicative target of 45% will not be reached until another year later. “Although the expansion of renewable electricity production has clearly picked up speed in this legislative period, it is not yet sufficient to achieve the targets that Germany has set itself,” writes Germanwatch.

Missing the target is also foreseeable in terms of energy efficiency. Even in the NECP with additional measures scenario, the primary energy consumption target for 2030 will be missed by 249 terawatt hours (TWh). An even larger gap of 260 TWh is foreseeable for final energy consumption. luk/ber

Oil and gas: Flaring emissions on the rise

According to an analysis by energy research company Rystadt, CO2 emissions from the flaring of associated gas during global oil and gas production increased by seven percent between 2022 and 2023. Flaring caused around 300 million tons of CO2 in 2023. Between 2021 and 2022, some progress was made in reducing flaring, but this progress was reversed in 2023. For the past ten years, the industry has made no progress in this area.

The reversal “underscores the importance of continuous and increased efforts from companies, countries and industry organizations to set targets and implement measures to tackle routine flaring,” says Magnus Kjemphol Lohne, Senior Vice President of Energy Systems Research at Rystad Energy. Russia, Iran and Iraq account for the largest share of excess gas flaring. In the United States – the world’s largest oil and gas producer – 20 percent more gas was flared than in 2022. The most climate-damaging flaring, calculated in kilograms of CO2 per barrel of oil, is in Venezuela and Libya. nib

Industry subsidies: Germany presents first climate protection contracts

The German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) has “launched a rocket,” said Robert Habeck at the handover of the first climate protection contracts on Tuesday. He said that from the start of the bidding process in March through the application phase to the issuing of the funding decisions, the BMWK took just seven months. This meant that his department had achieved the necessary pace for the transformation of the medium-sized industrial companies for which the funding was intended.

15 projects – from the switch to “green” synthetic formic acid to sustainable bricks for building – will receive more than 2.8 billion euros. This money is intended to fund new green production facilities and the increased costs of non-fossil energy sources like hydrogen.

Habeck justifies high funding costs

The beneficiaries include companies such as the Beiersdorf subsidiary Tesa and the chemical group BASF as well as the medium-sized specialty paper manufacturer Drewsen. The funding per company ranges from 50 to 560 million euros.

The subsidy is expected to save 17 million tons of CO2 equivalents over the 15-year contract period. Each ton of CO2 saved will cost taxpayers almost 165 euros, two and a half times the current exchange price for the corresponding credits. According to Habeck, this is the price for keeping energy-intensive industrial production in Germany while establishing net-zero technologies.

Furthermore, the ministry does not expect the subsidies to be paid out in full. The model of the climate protection contracts provides for “payment in installments,” which only takes effect once the companies have provided proof of saved emissions and the associated costs compared to fossil-based production. This means that the actual funding depends on volatile prices for energy sources and the fluctuating costs of credits. Ultimately, companies are expected to pay back additional revenue if green production becomes cheaper than fossil-based production.

In the current second round of climate protection contracts, 130 projects have been submitted. The reported sum earmarked is in the low double-digit billion range. The funds have been deposited in the Climate and Transformation Fund. Habeck also hopes for a third and fourth round “until the money runs out.” However, this would have to be negotiated politically. av

edie: Guidance for the House of Commons. Peers for the Planet and the University of Exeter have developed a guide to be presented to members of the House of Commons. It covers topics such as climate change, the Paris Agreement and socio-economic risks of failing to address climate change. Read the article

Eurasiaview: Droughts increase migration. Droughts caused by climate change are leading to significantly more migration movements. If droughts persist, many people see migration as their only chance of stable living conditions. Regions in Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East are particularly affected. Read the article

Guardian: Investors campaign for clean economy. Australian investors call on their government to support more measures to decarbonize the industry. The goal should be establishing a clean economy in Australia to help the country become a clean energy powerhouse. To the article

Forbes: AI supports coal and gas. The energy hunger of AI data centers is jeopardizing the energy transition in the USA. Coal and gas-fired power plants are being shut down later than planned. As a result, companies like Google and Microsoft increasingly rely on nuclear power. Read the article

Club of Rome: A Giant Leap for Germany – paths to a social-ecological transformation

by Till Kellerhoff and Peter Hennicke

Peter Hennicke (left) and Till Kellerhoff (right) from the Club of Rome

As early as 1972, the Club of Rome warned in its first report, “The Limits to Growth,” that it is impossible to sustain infinite material growth on a finite planet. This realization is more relevant today than ever. Globally, we have crossed six of the planet’s nine planetary boundaries, with the seventh soon to be breached.

As a rich industrialized country, Germany has contributed disproportionately to this overshoot. We also see that an economic system geared towards limitless extraction and expansion not only destroys the natural foundations on which it depends, but is also unable to ensure the well-being of all people. Inequality is increasing with the gap between rich and poor widening.

It is time for a radical change – a giant leap towards a social-ecological transformation that ensures well-being for all within the planetary boundaries.

The illusion of limitless growth

The idea of unlimited economic growth as an indicator of increasing well-being has long been abandoned. Growth that does not contribute to greater life satisfaction is growth at the expense of the environment, our contemporaries and future generations.

Instead, we need new visions for a “well-being society” that does not prioritize the insatiable desire for more wealth, power, production and consumption, but rather the well-being of all within the ecological capacities of our planet. It is imperative to formulate concrete policy steps that provide answers on how to solve the social and ecological questions together and at the systemic level.

Five turnarounds for the Giant Leap

In our view, to make the Giant leap, five turnarounds must be tackled together and swiftly. Earth4All shows that it is more effective, cost-efficient and easier to make this transformation holistic rather than implementing isolated measures. Only in this way can synergies be tapped and the necessary acceptance among the population gained.

Poverty: Only by eradicating poverty – both globally and nationally – can we lay the foundation for a just and sustainable society. Targeted public investment and a fairer distribution of wealth are essential to this end.
Inequality: Addressing inequality is critical for the success of a socio-ecological transformation. The richest 10 percent of Germans own over 60 percent of the wealth and at the same time contribute disproportionately to environmental destruction. Taxing the rich more and making access to resources fairer is not only ecologically necessary, but also strengthens social cohesion and democracy.
Empowerment: Women and marginalized groups must be more involved in shaping our future. Strengthening self-efficacy, a fairer care system and a transformation of the education system are central levers for developing the full potential of all people and driving change.
Food system transformation: Our current food system is harmful to both our health and the planet. Greater promotion of plant-based foods, more sustainable agriculture and fairer distribution of resources are key to a healthy and sustainable food culture.
Energy transition: A completely climate-neutral energy supply is feasible. To achieve this, we must invest in renewable energies, but also reduce our energy consumption. Energy efficiency, sufficiency and the rapid implementation of renewable energies are essential to making the energy transition a success.

The necessary transformation does not mean doing without or making sacrifices – it is an opportunity for a better life for all. It is about distributing the wealth generated by society more fairly and at the same time using resources more sparingly.

A survey conducted on behalf of Earth4All shows that these changes do have the support of a majority of citizens in the G20 countries – if the right framework is created by policymakers. 66 percent of Germans believe the world will have to take drastic measures in all economic sectors (such as energy, transport, industry, and food) over the next ten years. The majority (71 percent) believe that wealthy people should pay higher taxes

Taking an integrated approach that strengthens social cohesion and democracy is the key to success. If the transformation is carried out at the expense of those who have hardly benefited from our economic system in the past decades, it endangers democracy. The Giant Leap offers the chance to close social divides and shape change together.

Investing in the future: necessary and affordable

The realization of a Giant Leap requires bold and comprehensive investments in the future. These are not only necessary to avert future damage, but they are also financially viable. The transformation and initial investments needed could be supported financially by higher taxes on the rich. But a reform of the debt brake, which limits government borrowing, is essential to allow the large investments needed for ecological transformation.

Despite the current multiple crises we face, there are good reasons for optimism. For example we see drastic cost reductions for renewable energies and worldwide social movements for an integrated system change. The time for courage, vision and decisive action is now.

Till Kellerhoff is Program Director of the Club of Rome and author of “Tax the Rich,” and Peter Hennicke is Senior Advisor at the Wuppertal Institute and member of the Club of Rome. Both are authors of the book “Earth for All Germany: Towards a future for all,” published in mid-October.

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Bernhard
Pötter

Alexandra
Endres

Christiane
Kühl

Lisa
Kuner

Lukas
Knigge

Malte
Kreutzfeldt

Nico
Beckert

Dear reader,

Is a lack of money preventing the world from being saved? Over the next few weeks, heads of state will hold a summit marathon involving the Climate COP, the Biodiversity COP (COP16) and the G20 summit. Today, Claire Stam analyzes why the Biodiversity Conference faces similar challenges to the Climate Conference in November: Who will pay how much, and how can more private funding be mobilized for biodiversity conservation? Negotiators at the climate conference must also be willing to compromise, as we show in the news on the latest state of negotiations on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG).

Our latest text in our “Ideas for the Climate” series shows that many solutions to the climate crisis have long been available and “only” require funding. Nick Nuttall analyzes the many advantages of floating solar systems. Probably the biggest advantage: Solar systems on inland waters and reservoirs could solve the problem of competition for available space.

In today’s opinion piece, Till Kellerhoff and Peter Hennicke from the Club of Rome call for five U-turns to get climate action and environmental policy back on track. One of their proposals: Higher taxes for the rich – this would make ecological sense and strengthen cohesion and democracy. It could also help fund climate and environmental conservation, which brings us full circle to what will probably be the most important topic in the coming weeks.

Have an exciting read!

Your
Nico Beckert

COP16: Which topics will be important at the UN Biodiversity Conference in Cali

By

Claire Stam

The Biodiversity Conference (COP16) starts next week in Cali, Colombia (October 21 to November 1). The focus will be on mobilizing enough funds for the conservation of biodiversity. Some countries rely on new, innovative funding sources, such as revenue from genetic data from plants and animals. Host country Colombia wants to combine climate action and biodiversity conservation and recently presented a 40 billion plan comparable to the Just Energy Transition Partnerships. However, many other countries are less ambitious and have not yet submitted national strategies to implement the resolutions of the last biodiversity COP in late 2022.

Only 25 countries have national plans to implement the 2022 resolutions

Colombia’s Environment Minister and COP16 President, Susana Muhamad, wants to elevate biodiversity loss to the same level as climate change in the global political discourse. According to Muhamad, humanity must make a “double movement”: a just decarbonization and the restoration of nature.

However, many countries participating in COP16 display less ambition. So far, only 25 countries have submitted national plans to implement the far-reaching resolutions of the last biodiversity conference in December 2022 – including many EU countries, China, Indonesia, Mexico and the EU. Germany has yet to submit a plan. The low number falls far short of expectations. In addition, there are already gaps between the national and global targets, says Juliette Landry, researcher for international biodiversity governance at the French think tank Iddri.

In December 2022, the 195 signatories to the Kunming-Montreal Agreement and the European Union pledged to take “urgent action” to protect biodiversity. The 2030 targets include:

placing 30 percent of the global land and water areas under protection;
“ensure that by 2030 at least 30 percent of areas of degraded terrestrial, inland water, and marine and coastal ecosystems are under effective restoration”;
phasing out subsidies for ecologically harmful activities such as mining or industrial fishing, and
protecting biodiversity through climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

COP16 aims to encourage more countries to submit more detailed and ambitious national plans.

Funding: Large gap between demand and pledged funds

The last conference also saw remarkable progress on financing. The aim is to mobilize “at least 200 billion dollars per year” by 2030. Developed countries pledged public funding for developing countries of “at least 20 billion dollars per year by 2025” and “at least 30 billion dollars per year by 2030” – the latter represents a threefold increase on current funding. There is a significant difference between what is needed – some experts estimate it to be even higher than the 200 billion US dollars pledged – and the promised public funds will be mobilized through private funds. “No country will have enough public funds to achieve the goals of this agreement. So we need to focus on mobilizing private finance and investment,” says Hugo-Maria Schally, advisor for international environmental negotiations at the European Commission. He refers to biodiversity projects of the European Central Bank and the European Investment Bank.

In her speech at the DLD Nature Conference in Munich on September 13, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a case for “nature credits.” Pointing to the ongoing collapse of biodiversity and the “clear economic case for preserving and restoring nature,” she defended what she sees as a “win-win” system. Inspired by the European carbon market, this system would allow local communities or farmers to be “rewarded” for the ecosystem services they provide. The European Commission is currently working with several Member States on pilot projects – one of which is in France. The aim is to quantify the value of ecosystems and introduce mechanisms to remunerate the stakeholders involved.

COP16 host Colombia is optimistic, however, that compromises will be reached on funding. According to Susana Muhamad, Colombia is in an ideal position to build bridges between the “Global South and the Global North.” She pointed out that Colombia is a member of both the G77 negotiating group and the OECD, “which allows the different blocs to be brought closer together.” Just at the end of September, Colombia presented a 40-billion-dollar investment plan to tackle the energy transition while investing in nature conservation and the restoration of ecosystems. The plan also provides for investment in sustainable agriculture and ecotourism. Colombia hopes the plan will be supported by international donors, including Germany.

Ecological transformation: Business opportunities worth more than ten trillion US dollars

What remains open is the role of the private sector when it comes to implementing the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). According to the Future of Nature and Business Report of the World Economic Forum (WEF), eco-friendly solutions offer business opportunities worth more than ten trillion US dollars, which could create 395 million new jobs by 2030.

However, according to a WEF transformation report, while most of the world’s top 500 companies have a climate target, only five percent have one for biodiversity. The WEF argues that, given the global economy’s dependence on nature, the private sector must urgently contribute to halting and reversing the loss of nature in this decade.

More money through the use of genetic resources?

Great hopes are attached to the growing commercial use of genetic resources. Western companies increasingly decode the genetic data of species in countries of the Global South and utilize their findings in medicine or cosmetics, for instance. One of the major challenges of the biodiversity COP is how such profits generated from the natural resources of the countries of the South can be better shared between the companies and the countries of origin.

On October 14, the EU environment ministers approved conclusions for the World Convention on Biological Diversity. The ministers reaffirmed their willingness to agree on modalities for sharing the benefits from the use of “digital sequence information on genetic resources,” i.e., digitized gene sequences stored in databases. At COP15 in 2022, negotiators failed to reach an agreement on this complex issue. Collaboration: Carsten Hübner

Ideas for the Climate: ‘Floatovoltaics’ – The next big step for solar power

By

Nick Nuttall

Deploying the emerging technology of floating solar panels or “floatovoltaics” could significantly boost the climate footprint of hydroelectric power plants while perhaps countering emissions equal to today’s stock of fossil fuel power stations. Solar panels that can float on reservoirs or calm inland waters are a new, highly promising technology if planners balance social and environmental challenges, especially in developing countries.

Solar on reservoirs: The potential is huge

Some countries are already harvesting the opportunity. BP Batam, an Indonesian island between the Strait of Malacca and Singapore, is constructing what is being billed as the world’s largest floating solar project at its Duriangkang Reservoir. When completed, it will have an installed capacity of 2,000 megawatts.
By some estimates, covering 10 percent of the world’s hydropower reservoirs with floating solar systems, could install 4,000 gigawatts of green energy. This is roughly equal to the electricity-generating capacity of all the world’s fossil fuel plants.

Writing in the latest edition of Nature Sustainability and building on a previous paper in Nature, the researchers argue that co-locating floating solar or “floatovoltaics” is the most sensible first step. Some hydropower plants have bigger than intended carbon footprints, sometimes equal to a conventional coal or gas power station. That is because many have underwater, rotting vegetation emitting significant levels of methane – a greenhouse gas that is up to 80 times more warming than carbon dioxide. Integrating floating solar could allow around 50 percent of such hydro plants to offset a significant amount of methane.

Floating solar systems offer many advantages

Collocating with hydropower also enables easy access to the electricity grid – and there are further advantages:

Floating solar panels are naturally cooled by the water, which means their efficiency in converting sunlight into electricity could be 5 percent higher.
Floating solar could reduce evaporation, leaving more water in reservoirs for hydropower, irrigation and drinking water supplies.
However, perhaps the biggest opportunity focuses around reducing tensions over land use choices between renewable, agriculture and biodiversity.

By 2050, the United States may need as much as 61,000 square Km of land on which to deploy solar panels as part of its decarbonization strategies – this is an area larger than, for example, the Netherlands. “Land scarce nations such as Japan and South Korea might have to devote 5 percent of their land to solar farms,” say the scientists.
“The question where to put these panels isn’t trivial. There is fierce competition for land that is also needed for food production and biodiversity conservation,” they argue.

Solar systems: Disadvantages in deserts, competition for land

Currently, some developers are eyeing desert locations for a massive solar ramp-up. But modeling of the Sahara has indicated that large numbers of solar panels there could alter local temperatures and global air flows, aggravating, for example, droughts in the Amazon. In the Mojave Desert, the deployment of solar has triggered conflict with indigenous peoples as a result of the loss of their traditional cacti.

Rooftops, highways and car parks are good options but space is limited. Meanwhile, co-locating solar with agriculture is an option, but the dynamics of how food production will or will not be impacted remains a work in progress.

Floating solar panels require little additional technology to conventional solar arrays, only floats, waterproofing and cables anchored to the lakebed. If the potential of floating photovoltaics is to be realized, then planners need to consider social and environmental concerns. For example, citing too many on reservoirs popular with sailors or used by artisanal fishermen in Africa might bring conflict.
Surveys are also needed to ensure the technology does not lead to unforeseen consequences on freshwater biodiversity.

More and more countries opt for floating solar systems

Floating solar panels are also today slightly more expensive than land-based solar and there is evidence floating solar needs more regular cleaning. But this new frontier seems to be catching on. Brazil recently changed the law so that “floatovoltaics” and hydropower plants can be regulated together.

Projects are also being completed or underway in Thailand, Japan and China and in the Netherlands a small-scale floating solar array has been deployed with smart technology to track the sun and boost electricity production.

Climate in Numbers: Why the world approaches an ‘age of electricity’

The world is on the cusp of an “age of electricity,” as the International Energy Agency (IEA) shows in its World Energy Outlook presented on Wednesday. It predicts that demand for fossil fuels will peak by the end of the decade and then fall. After that, an oversupply of fossil fuels will probably lead to lower prices, which will allow countries to invest more in the expansion of clean energies, predicts IEA Chairman Fatih Birol. According to the IEA, investment in electricity grids and energy storage systems must increase if renewables are to continue to grow at such a rapid pace.

According to the IEA scenario based on current government policy, global oil demand will peak at just under 102 million barrels per day (mb/d) before 2030 and then drop back to the 2023 level (99 mb/d) by 2035. The decline will mainly be due to the transport transition and more electric vehicles. However, there is also the possibility of short-term oil supply bottlenecks due to the Middle East conflict.

Almost twice as much investment in renewables as in fossil fuels

The IEA reports a record amount of clean energy was commissioned worldwide last year, including more than 560 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity. Around two trillion US dollars are expected to be invested in clean energy in 2024 – almost twice as much as in fossil fuels.

On Monday, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and its forecast for next year:

In its monthly report on Monday, OPEC predicted that global oil demand would increase by 1.93 million barrels per day in 2024, compared to last month’s forecast of 2.03 million barrels per day.
OPEC lowered its forecast for global demand growth in 2025 from 1.74 million barrels to 1.64 million barrels per day.

OPEC: China’s electromobility curbs global oil demand growth

Most of the subdued growth for 2024 is caused by China. OPEC lowered its Chinese growth forecast from 650,000 barrels per day to 580,000 barrels. While government stimulus measures will support demand in the fourth quarter, oil consumption will be impacted by economic challenges and the shift to cleaner fuels, OPEC said. nib/rtr

Climate finance: Going to COP29 with these unanswered questions

Shortly before the next climate conference, many details of the new climate finance goal (New Collective Quantified Goal – NCQG) remain open. The co-chairs of the NCQG working group presented a “framework for a draft negotiating text” on Tuesday, outlining the different positions of countries.

The negotiators at COP29 must find compromises on the following issues:

Amount of the NCQG: The working group’s draft contains options ranging from a sum to be determined (“X”) to “at least 100 billion” and up to two trillion US dollars per year. There are also calls for additional commitments for exclusively public financial aid from developed countries amounting to 441 billion US dollars per year.
Structure of the target: It is unclear whether there will be a single climate finance target or whether the NCQG will be divided into a core of direct pledges of public funds from developed countries and a larger pot of mobilized private funds.
Which countries are to contribute: It is also unclear whether the donor base will be expanded. The proposal here is that countries should contribute above a certain level of income and/or emissions. However, observers do not expect a compromise on such criteria. The expansion of donors is one of the biggest sticking points of the NCQG. A compromise could consist of greater transparency on South-South flows. EU negotiators stress that they do not aim to change the legal status of new donor countries via Article 9.3 of the Paris Agreement. Nor do they want to shirk their responsibility to ensure that developed countries continue contributing the majority of climate financing. Instead, they call for the willingness of wealthy developing countries to make financial contributions and to disclose them.
Thematic focus: It remains open whether the NCQG will finance loss and damage compensation in addition to climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
Target year of the NCQG: There is only agreement that contributions from 2025 will count towards the new target. It is also unclear whether the sum represents an annual target or one to be achieved at a much later date – 2035 is under discussion.

There is agreement on the following: aspects:

Providing more public funds for climate finance.
Phasing out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” – either “as soon as possible” or “by 2035.”
Simplifying access to climate finance.
Taking into account the problem of debt sustainability. nib/luk