Table.Briefing: Climate (English)

COP counts on private climate capital + Brazil: forest conservation via financial markets + Exxon CEO favors CCS and green subsidies

Dear reader,

777 million US dollars – that’s how much money the UAE, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and other donors pledged at COP28 on Sunday for the fight against tropical diseases. Diseases such as river blindness and sleeping sickness are becoming a growing threat due to climate change. The somewhat odd number draws attention. And attention is undoubtedly also a goal of the donor countries.

After all, climate conferences are always a game of big numbers. Hundreds of millions are pledged here, tens of billions are promised there. Often, the highest sums hide the hope for the participation of the private sector. Bernhard Pötter presents some of these initiatives.

Forest conservation also involves a lot of money. Brazil has presented new plans to preserve its tropical forests. What’s making it so special: If the forest is destroyed, the owners must pay a fine. But many things remain vague, reports Alexandra Endres.

The number of visitors to this COP is also gigantic. It almost cracked the mark of 100,000 delegates. One of the visitors is Darren Woods. The Exxon CEO plans to be “the last survivor” in the oil and gas business, analysts say. Find out more about Woods and his fossil fuel plans in today’s Profile.

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Nico Beckert
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Feature

Finance: Let private money fix it

Al Gore, former US vice president, is now a climate activist and major investor.

In the never-ending search for financial resources for international climate policy, COP28 is breaking new ground. While the debate on climate financing has so far mainly revolved around government funding, the focus now turns to private capital for the global energy transition. Companies, governments, foundations and the financial sector are presenting extensive packages to promote global climate action with a focus on emerging and developing countries. However, criticism of these plans is also growing louder.

Energy transition accelerator ETA

On Sunday, US climate envoy John Kerry officially presented the Energy Transition Accelerator (ETA) in the US pavilion on the COP premises. The ETA is an initiative of the US State Department, the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bezos Earth Foundation. It brings together industry partners and countries to raise capital for the “transition off of dirty power and accelerate the clean energy future” via carbon credits in emerging and developing countries, as Kerry said.

The idea is for companies such as Amazon, Bank of America, BCG, Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo and McDonald’s to buy credits from participating countries. So far, Chile, the Dominican Republic, Nigeria and the Philippines have expressed interest. The companies use these carbon credits to participate in the voluntary carbon market. In turn, the countries receive capital for developing renewables, power lines and decommissioning coal-fired power plants, for instance. The projects “will be guided by high-integrity methodologies and just transition safeguards.” Five percent of the revenue will be used for “adaptation and resilience in vulnerable countries.”

Up to 200 billion dollars promised in 2035

“These countries need around 1.9 trillion dollars in investment per year,” says Andrew Steer, who is advancing the project at the Bezos Earth Fund. “That’s seven times as much as is available today.” In 2035, the credits could mobilize between 72 and 207 billion dollars, it is said. This alone would be roughly on a par with the 100 billion dollars annually developed countries pledged to poor countries as climate financing from 2020 to 2025.

The US government’s ETA was already presented at COP27 and is now set to be officially launched next spring. There was already criticism back then because it contradicted the UN body’s recommendations against greenwashing in the financial sector. Erika Lennon from the development organization CIEL has now declared that the initiative is a “lie and deception” intended to divert attention from the USA’s poor climate finance record. She said the idea relied on carbon markets, which had proven that they did not work, even with high standards. And the ETA is a “dangerous distraction” from the fact that the US is the world’s largest oil and gas producer.

UAE investment pool with 30 billion

The COP hosts, the United Arab Emirates, are also pushing ahead with restructuring global financial flows. With a promise of a billion-dollar green investment initiative, a new “catalytic climate finance vehicle” investment fund called Alterra is to “steer private markets towards climate investments and focus on transforming emerging markets and developing economies,” according to a statement from the COP presidency.

The plan is to establish special public-sector cooperation in a country whose oil company Adnoc is a state-owned enterprise. Its CEO and current COP President Sultan Al Jaber is to oversee Alterra as chair of the supervisory board. Majid Al Suwaidi, Director General of COP28, will lead the company as CEO. He brings together a team of “climate finance specialists” for emerging and developing countries. The company will be based in Abu Dhabi.

The fund is intended to raise 30 billion dollars for this purpose, which will trigger 250 billion dollars in low-carbon investments worldwide. Alterra will be the “world’s largest private investment vehicle for climate change action.” Its goal is to “drive forward international efforts to create a fairer climate finance system, with an emphasis on improving access to funding for the Global South.”

The investment funds BlackRock, Brookfield and TPG are on board as private partners. Together, Alterra committed USD 6.5 billion to “climate-focused funds for global investments, including the Global South,” according to official information. Additional capital will also be raised “from other institutional investors and global organizations.” The structure will be “a transformative solution to attract private capital,” said Sultan Al Jaber.

25 billion everywhere, five billion for poor countries

Alterra will be divided into two areas. “Alterra Acceleration” will channel 25 billion US dollars of capital into large-scale climate investments with the best chance of accelerating the transition to net zero and a green economy. The unit will be an “anchor investor,” investing directly and channeling its money into partnerships in developed and emerging economies.

Alterra Transformation,” the second and significantly smaller part of the company with five billion in capital, is intended to raise “risk mitigation capital” to stimulate investment flows to the Global South and circumvent existing obstacles to such investments. The unit also wants to “create opportunities to leverage concessional finance to further attract climate investment to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).”

The climate group 350.org has raised some questions about this project. “While in principle a step in the right direction, we would need to check that the claims by the presidency are not overblown,” says Andreas Sieber from 350.org. The majority of the announced 30 billion will be allocated at market conditions, and there are no guarantees that this will not lead to further debt in the recipient countries or flow into CCS technologies, for example.

Germany favors private financing

German Development Minister Svenja Schulze also recognizes the need to “shift the trillions” required for the global energy transition, which cannot be achieved from national budgets alone. “Effective climate action needs private capital above all,” the minister told Table.Media. “We can’t just finance this publicly. We need much more capital for the global climate and poverty reduction tasks. This makes it all the more important to get private money on board with the right framework conditions where there are business models. This can relieve the pressure on tight public budgets.”

Brazil with fund for ‘forever forests’

Brazil also proposes international financing for forest conservation and sustainable development. Unlike the Amazon Fund, which countries such as Norway and Germany already use to fund measures to counter deforestation, the new “Tropical Forests Forever” is supposed to ensure the preservation of forests. International donors, primarily sovereign wealth funds, would invest capital via a financial institution as an intermediary, with the returns generated being used to finance forest conservation in Brazil and other countries (See our second analysis for details).

15.8 billion for JETP in Vietnam

The global energy transition partnerships JETP also mobilize international capital for emerging countries. This money consists of public funds from developed countries and loans from private financial institutions at favorable rates. Following partnerships with South Africa, Indonesia and Senegal, Vietnam has now also announced its financing needs at COP28. Accordingly, 15.8 billion dollars are to flow into the energy transition, of which the international partners, above all, the EU, will provide over eight billion. The negotiations took roughly a year.

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Brazil campaigns new plan to preserve tropical forests

Intact Brazilian rainforest: A new fund aims to improve rainforest conservation.

Four months ago, twelve countries home to tropical forests agreed at the Amazon Summit in Belém, Brazil, to “develop innovative mechanisms” to harmonize rainforest conservation with social and economic concerns. These included key rainforest countries such as Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia. Brazil has now presented its first “innovative mechanism” at COP28.

The plan is to finance rainforest conservation via a “Tropical Forests Forever” fund. Brazil hopes to initially “mobilize” at least 250 billion US dollars. It is not yet clear where the money is supposed to come from. Various ideas have been floated at the conference. One proposal aims to encourage sovereign wealth funds to invest.

Money for every hectare saved

So far, the resources available for global forest conservation have been limited. Deforestation is usually more profitable than preserving the ecosystem: Land is cleared for livestock and soya cultivation, for example, and nature is destroyed for oil drilling and gold mining. The new fund aims to change this by offering economic incentives to preserve ecosystems.

The money will primarily go to the people and communities that protect and preserve the forest. According to the Brazilian government, around 80 countries could benefit from the fund. They would receive a fixed amount every year from a mechanism designed to be as simple as possible and therefore quick to implement – for every hectare of forest that is preserved or restored. For every hectare cut down, forest owners would have to pay a hundred times as much in fines.

Fines could be the decisive factor in a forest owner’s economic considerations. According to Tasso Azevedo, the inventor of the Brazilian Amazon Fund, growing soya promises a significantly higher yield per hectare than conserving the forest, even with the money from the fund. However, a penalty that would cancel out payments of one hundred protected hectares is a powerful incentive to preserve the forest. In a recent article, Azevedo wrote that nature conservation must be guaranteed to yield tangible returns.

Developing details with ‘partners’

The initiative was presented at the COP28 by high-profile figures, including Environment Minister Marina Silva and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Brazil is now inviting “partners” to develop the fund’s operational details, said Silva. The new fund is expected to be operational by COP30.

However, to what extent other tropical countries will support the initiative remains unclear. Garo Batmanian told Table.Media that dialogue is ongoing with some of them. Batmanian is the General Director of the Brazilian Forestry Service at the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change of the Government of Brazil. However, he did not mention any specific names. His delegation said the initial goal was to initiate a dialogue about the new idea.

A spokesperson for the Coalition for Rainforest Nations, which, according to its own information, includes more than 50 countries, did not comment specifically on Brazil’s initiative: “We support the Brazilian government under Lula in principle,” he merely stated, “and believe in the REDD+ mechanism of the UNFCCC.”

REDD+ is an established concept that focuses on paying money for emissions avoided through forest conservation. It primarily sees the ecosystem as a carbon sink. Brazil’s initiative could be seen as competition. In fact, the Brazilian delegation claims that its own idea is much easier to implement than REDD+ and could, therefore, generate significant funds more quickly.

25 dollars per hectare of forest – a hundredfold penalty for deforestation

The idea is to no longer tie payments to the amount of carbon stored in a forest, but to the area preserved, thus considering that a forest also fulfills ecological and social functions. For example, a payment of 25 or 30 US dollars could be made per hectare – for every hectare of cut forest, the sum for one hundred hectares would be deducted.

Batmanian explained that the fund is to be as simple as possible. The requirements should not be too detailed, partly to allow as many countries as possible to participate: “We all have forests. But we are at different stages of development and there are socio-economic and cultural differences between us. A one-size-fits-all approach would not do this justice.”

Requirements for participating countries

However, all participating countries should fulfill some fundamental criteria:

  • Their deforestation rates must be low and decline in the long term. It has yet to be determined how low the rate must be and how long the downward trend must last.
  • The countries must be able to verify and prove this through a credible monitoring system – either their own or one provided by a third party. For example, they could use FAO data.
  • The money from the forest fund is supposed to mainly benefit the people who protect and preserve the forest. This could be indigenous communities in Brazil, for instance. The money distribution mechanism will be “transparent and inclusive.” How the money will be distributed and its use will be documented has also not yet been determined.
  • The countries should make a long-term commitment to participate in the initiative.

Possible sources of funding

By winning sovereign wealth funds as investors, the hope is to raise adequate funds for the new mechanism. According to Batmanian, sovereign wealth funds manage combined global assets of twelve trillion dollars. They have clear investment rules: A large share of the money must be invested in safe AAA-rated bonds. Batmanian’s idea: A financial institution – the World Bank, for instance – issues such AAA bonds to investors at a standard market interest rate. The funds raised are then invested in the financial market. This is how it makes a profit. This could then flow into the conservation of tropical forests.

It remains unclear how market fluctuations will be handled – and whether sovereign wealth funds can even make significant investments in the bonds Brazil’s fund wants to issue. They generally have to adhere to very strict conditions.

Personally, Tasso Azevedo prefers a different source of finance: Oil producers could pay one dollar into the fund for every barrel produced – and Brazil could make a start. “What if we then asked the USA to also give a dollar? Or Saudi Arabia?” Private oil companies should also contribute, “only four or five years until we have achieved implementation.” He believes that the required sums would be raised quickly this way.

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Background: The 100 billion dollar promise

What it’s about:

At the otherwise failed COP15 climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries pledged to “mobilize” 100 billion dollars annually from 2020 for climate adaptation and mitigation in developing countries. The money is intended to help countries that have contributed very little to the climate crisis but are most vulnerable to it.

Why it’s important:

On the one hand, the money is important for advancing the green transformation in the countries of the Global South. The need to reduce emissions, for instance through green technologies, and to adapt to climate change is huge: IRENA estimates that 35 trillion dollars will be needed worldwide by 2030 for investments in renewables alone. And the financial resources required for adaptation, especially in poor countries, are also huge: 215 billion annually by 2030. So far, poor countries have often had to raise a large proportion of this themselves, which is practically impossible in the debt crisis.

Secondly, the “100 billion” have enormous political significance: Since they were not met in 2020 and 2021, this is widely seen by emerging and developing countries as proof that the Global North is not serious about the goals of the Paris Agreement. Documents and statements by negotiators regularly point this out.

These are the details:

Instead of the promised 100 billion, developed countries only delivered 83.3 billion in 2020, according to official OECD figures. The amount increased to 89.6 billion in 2021. Politically significant: The OECD stated that “preliminary data” showed “the goal [100 billion] looks likely to have already been met as of 2022.” This is now being proclaimed by many representatives of the North as a virtually confirmed fact.

At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, Germany and Canada presented a concept for the developed countries to refute the accusation that the wealthy countries were shirking their obligations: The plan calls for the 100 billion to be reached in 2023 and for significantly more than 100 billion to flow each year thereafter until 2025 – bringing the total to 100 billion across a number of years. The current trend exceeds these calculations slightly.

This is criticized:

In addition to missing the target for 2020, 2021 and 2022, developing countries are also bothered by other things: For example, it was agreed in Glasgow that the money would be divided equally between emissions reduction (mitigation) and adaptation – but so far only around 25 percent has been allocated to adaptation funding. The background: Mitigation money flows faster, for example into wind and solar power plants, which are good businesses – and are mainly located in less poor countries. Adaptation measures are hardly a business model and are primarily needed in particularly poor countries.

Oxfam also calculates that only around a third to a quarter of climate aid actually reaches the poor countries as net climate aid. The reason for this is that many activities are often booked under “climate action” in the accounts, which hardly achieve this. Another criticism is that many of the “mobilized” funds are just loans that poor countries can hardly afford. Grants only account for around a third.

This could be an outcome of COP28:

The announcement that the sum has been increased significantly and steadily and will break the 100 billion mark in 2023 is supposed to create a good mood at the COP – or at least take the wind out of the sails of the ongoing criticism. At the same time, however, countries such as China complain that the OECD’s data cannot be trusted.

But the 100 billion debate is just a prelude. Because at COP28, a serious battle begins over what climate finance is supposed to look like in the future:

  • How much money will be needed? According to the Paris Agreement, a “new quantified financial goal” (NQFG) will apply from 2025, with the 100 billion being a lower limit. The negotiations on this target will arouse a lot of interest in Dubai.
  • Who should pay? No longer just the developed countries, but “all those who are in a position to do so,” as the developed countries demand – including financially strong emerging countries such as Korea, Singapore or China and rich oil states such as Saudi Arabia or the hosts of the UAE.
  • How will the large global capital flows be redirected from fossil to green investments? After all, “shifting the trillions” is one of the three main objectives of the Paris Agreement under Article 2 (1) (c).

Events

Dec. 4, 9 a.m., World Bank Pavilion
Discussion Women as Catalysts for Climate Action for a Livable Planet
The World Bank event will explore how public, private and civil society actors are working to catalyze green solutions that support climate and gender equality goals simultaneously. Info

Dec. 4, 10 Uhr, The Women’s Pavilion – Humanitarian Hub
Panel discussion Gendered Dimensions of Climate-Related Emergencies: Impact on Livelihoods, Food Security and Partnerships and Financing Through a Gender Lens
Various UN institutions and humanitarian actors alongside local women’s organizations will discuss promising practices as well as challenges that the humanitarian sector faces in reducing risks and responding to women and girls’ needs in climate-induced crises across sectors. Info

Dec. 4, 11:30 a.m., SE Room 7
Discussion Coordinating for Greater Ocean-based Climate Change Ambition: A UN-Oceans Perspective
UN-Oceans entities are coordinating for climate-smart, ecosystem-focused and sustainable ocean management and planning. With the Global Stocktake and increased ambition in mind, this side event will showcase how UN-Oceans is building synergies at the national and international levels for ocean-based mitigation and adaptation. Info

Dec. 4, 4 p.m., Blue Zone
Dialog High Level Dialogue on Gender-Responsive Just Transitions & Climate Action
This ministerial dialog will launch the Gender-Responsive Just Transitions & Climate Action Partnership – bringing together a package of commitments to accessible funding, gender-responsive budgeting and data. Info

News

10 warnings from science: planning for an overshoot of 1.5 degrees

While COP28 settles into the daily routine of negotiations after the optimistic opening days, the scientific community has sent another loud warning to the conference: Around 200 scientists have given an update on the latest climate and earth system research findings. In their report “10 New Insights in Climate Science” for 2023/2024, the consortium of think tanks, universities and UN agencies under the umbrella of the organizations Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme describes the latest scientific findings:

  • Exceeding the global average temperature of 1.5 degrees is “fast becoming inevitable.” Research shows that there is no pathway left to avoid exceeding 1.5 degrees due to insufficient carbon mitigation in the past – except for truly radical transformations. Minimizing the size and duration of the overshoot is important.
  • A rapid and planned phase-out of fossil fuels is necessary to stay close to the goals of the Paris Agreement. The CO2 budget is shrinking fast; “Governments and the private sector must stop enabling new fossil fuel projects.”
  • “Robust measures” are needed to achieve the required scale of carbon removal from the atmosphere (CDR). These are needed very soon for sectors that are difficult to decarbonize – and in the medium term to bring temperatures back down.

Sinks are weakening, glaciers are melting faster

  • It is “a risky strategy” to overly rely on the absorption capacity of natural sinks: The extent of their future contribution to climate is uncertain. The sinks could well store less carbon than previously assumed.
  • The closely linked emergencies of climate and biodiversity must be addressed through a joint overall strategy and regulation.
  • “Compound events amplify climate risks and increase their uncertainty.” The combination of different simultaneous or subsequent risks can mean that the consequences are greater than the sum of the individual parts.
  • The loss of mountain glacier ice is accelerating. High mountain regions are particularly affected. This means that around two billion people are potentially at risk of water shortages in the long term. People living in mountainous regions are exposed to increased risks of flash floods.
  • People’s mobility is reduced in areas with high climate risks. Existing policy frameworks have failed to address situations where inhabitants of vulnerable areas are unable or unwilling to leave them.
  • Planning for adaptation to climate change often neglects equity. An index to measure adaptation equity can help increase resilience and minimize the risk of poor adaptation.
  • Reforming the food system contributes to climate justice. Food production and consumption play a central role in climate policy. However, action should be fair and consider the needs of all involved.

Wishes for COP28

With a view to COP28, the researchers write that the Global Stocktake should “reinforce the international commitment to mitigation to avoid long-lasting overshoot.” The scientists write: “We hope that this year’s 10 New Insights in Climate Science will be reflected in the outcomes at COP28.” Particularly:

  • Unambiguous steps toward a clear commitment to the fossil fuel phase-out.
  • Strengthening international aid for adaptation and disaster prevention
  • Recognizing the importance of restructuring the food system for climate action and climate justice.
  • Advancing the integration of climate action and biodiversity in international politics. bpo
  • COP28

Study: Fossil states have hardly any phase-out plans

So far, very few countries have committed to phase out fossil fuels. Around 88 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are now included in government targets to achieve net zero emissions. However, only 13 percent of all countries with net-zero targets have also committed to phasing out fossil fuels. This is the result of an analysis by Net Zero Tracker, an association of think tanks and foundations.

More than 90 percent of oil and gas producing countries have not yet set a phase-out date for exploring and developing new reserves. The lack of phase-out plans showed a clear deviation from the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Pathway, which sets out scenarios for achieving the 1.5-degree target and phasing out fossil fuels. According to this, the use of coal would have to fall by 95 percent by 2050, oil by 60 percent and natural gas by 45 percent. According to the Net Zero Tracker, things are looking better for coal. More than half of publicly listed coal companies with net zero targets have also set coal phase-out targets. kul

  • Fossile Brennstoffe

France and Spain want international climate taxes

France, Spain, Kenya, Barbados and Antigua and Barbuda set up a working group on international climate taxes at COP28. The task force is to identify new tax models before COP30 in order to mobilize “new, additional, and predictable, and adequate financial resources” for climate efforts in developing countries and emerging economies. Concrete proposals for international climate and development taxes will be presented at COP30 in two years. The task force is due to meet for the first time at the working level in spring 2024. Its secretariat will be set up at the European Climate Foundation.

Among other things, the initiative builds on the Paris Summit for a new global financial pact in June 2023 and the Africa Climate Summit in September 2023. An international CO₂ tax was debated at the Africa Summit, for example, through a tax on fossil fuel trading, a tax on shipping fuels, levies on air travel or a financial transaction tax. According to calculations by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), such taxes could generate hundreds of billions of US dollars in revenue. nib

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COP28: More delegates than ever before

More than 97,000 participants have been registered for this year’s COP in Dubai. That is almost twice as many as last year in Egypt. A list of all delegates by name was published for COP28 for the first time.

With more than 4,400 delegates, the host country, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is the largest group. In addition, the UAE has invited around 5,000 guests to the “Blue Zone” of the climate conference. These include many lobbyists, the interim head of BP, Murray Auchincloss, and Larry Fink from BlackRock, writes the Financial Times.

UAE and Brazil lead, Myanmar and Afghanistan not represented

Brazil (3,081), China and Nigeria (1,411 each) have also registered very large delegations. Indonesia, Japan and Turkey have also registered more than 1,000 people. Germany is sending 468 delegates. In contrast, Afghanistan and Myanmar are not sending any representatives. According to a Carbon Brief analysis, 62 percent of participants are male and only 38 percent female.

In order to ensure greater fairness in the representation of interests, authors of a recent study by Lund University in Sweden demand an upper limit for the number of delegates a country can send to the climate conference. Large and financially strong countries benefit from the current participant structure. kul

  • Vereinigte Arabische Emirate

Heads

Darren Woods – Exxon boss supports CCS and more efficient fracking

Darren Woods, CEO von Exxon Mobile
Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil. This was the first time an Exxon CEO attended a climate conference.

Darren Woods is the first ExxonMobil CEO to attend a climate conference. At COP28, the business model of fossil fuel giants is also being negotiated indirectly: a phase-out or phasing down of oil and gas production. Woods wants to prevent this because his course for Exxon is clear: The company plans to be the “last man standing” in the oil and gas business, as one observer puts it.

The company did join a new initiative of 50 oil and gas companies at COP28. Their aim is to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuel production to zero by 2050 and significantly reduce methane emissions by 2030. But critics see this as just a fig leaf. Unlike some other oil and gas companies, Exxon hardly invests in renewables. Quite the opposite.

57-year-old Woods has been CEO of Exxon since January 2017. During his time in office, Exxon has invested tens of billions of US dollars in a shale oil company and in CCS infrastructure. The company also invests heavily in its own production off the coast of Guyana. Woods is convinced that the energy transition will take “many decades.” According to Exxon, oil and gas will still account for more than half of energy demand in 2050.

Exxon has ‘captured more CO2 than any other company

Like COP President Al Jaber, Woods wants to “address the emissions associated with the combustion of oil and gas.” and “find the technology to do that.” Fossil fuels offer “a level of convenience, reliability, and affordability that is hard to replace,” said the Exxon CEO in an interview with consulting firm McKinsey. There is too much talk about the end of fossil fuels at COP28, Woods told the Financial Times.

Born in the industrial city of Wichita, Kansas, Woods strongly supports CCS technology. He studied electrical engineering and has a Master of Business Administration (MBA). He is married and has three children. “By training, I’m an engineer, which in many ways is how I still see myself – as someone who solves problems,” says Woods about himself. “I’m a father and grandfather – who cares about his family, their quality of life, and their futures.”

And he boasts that Exxon has “captured more CO2 than any other company.” However, most CCS applications are used to expand oil and gas production. Exxon sees new business opportunities here. In the summer of 2023, the oil multinational acquired Denbury Inc. for USD 4.9 billion, giving it the largest network of CO2 pipelines in the United States. The deal is part of Exxon’s promise to invest over 17 billion US dollars in “low-carbon solutions” by 2027, as the company calls its investments in CCS, hydrogen and biofuels.

60 billion US dollars for shale oil takeover

But Wood’s biggest takeover targets a shale oil producer. Exxon plans to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources and its production licenses in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico for USD 60 billion – and still awaits the green light from the Biden administration. The company describes the takeover as a “win for the environment” and claims it can extract the oil with fewer emissions than Pioneer. In late 2020, Exxon’s carbon footprint attracted a lot of criticism, culminating in a campaign by activist investor Engine No. 1. However, the three board members of Engine No. 1 accepted the acquisition of Pioneer. Woods hopes to double the revenue from the shale oil deposits through technical improvements in fracking.

Under Woods, Exxon also continues to play a significant political role. When it comes to shaping the energy transition, Exxon can”play a role in bringing expertise and our understanding of today’s energy system to bear,” Woods told McKinsey. In day-to-day political business, however, this is sometimes done somewhat more aggressively. In the summer of 2021, Exxon’s chief lobbyist, Keith McCoy, described Biden’s climate plans as “insane.” Exxon only agreed to a carbon tax because it was unlikely, McCoy said in a video secretly recorded by activists. The Exxon lobbyist admitted that Exxon was pressuring senators and supporting shadow groups that cast the government’s climate policy in a bad light. Woods called the statements “disturbing and inaccurate.”

Lobbying for CCS and blue hydrogen

Exxon currently lobbies the US government on hydrogen subsidies. The company wants to ensure that hydrogen from gas (“blue hydrogen”) is also considered green and that producers like Exxon should receive high subsidies. The aim is to capture and store the CO2 generated during production.

Woods, who joined the company in 1992, is well-off thanks to the fossil fuel course he has charted for Exxon. During the energy crisis 2022, his annual income skyrocketed to almost 36 million US dollars. His basic salary was raised by ten percent to nearly two million US dollars. US President Joe Biden criticized the company at the time, saying it was making “more money than God.” Exxon is taking legal action against the EU tax on windfall profits. If the tax goes through, the company faces payments of at least two billion US dollars. A decision by the European Court of Justice is still pending. Nico Beckert

Dessert

The heads of state and government have left Dubai, and the Global Stocktake negotiations are gaining momentum. A second draft text was actually expected on Sunday afternoon. However, the informal negotiations continued until late evening and possibly into the morning.

By the end of the first COP week, the most important text of this conference should be sorted to the point where the ministers can make political decisions on the various options in the second week. Many countries – including European countries – are calling for a “phase out” or at least a “phase down of fossil fuels” to make COP28 a success. The big question remains: Is a phase-out/phase-down even an option for COP President Al Jaber?

This was the subject of heated debate in Dubai on Sunday in light of statements made by the COP28 President. According to reports in the Guardian, Al Jaber claimed shortly before the start of the COP that there was no scientific evidence and no scenario to prove that 1.5 degrees could be achieved by phasing out the use of fossil fuels. Al Jaber said that phasing out fossil fuels would take the global community back to the caves.

As a reminder: UN head Guterres declared just last Friday that the science was clear. “The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate.”

According to the Guardian, Al Jaber’s team defended their boss’s comments. The 1.5-degree scenarios from the IEA and IPCC showed that fossil fuels would have to play a role in the future energy system, albeit a smaller one. Al Jabers is not entirely wrong. Neither IPCC nor IEA reports clearly call for a fossil fuel phase-out. However, many of the scientists who write these reports do. In addition, the CO2 reduction pathway specified by the 6th IPCC Assessment Report for a 1.5-degree scenario (99 percent reduction by 2050) does not, in fact, allow for the large-scale use of fossil fuels.

Al Jaber’s remarks are unfortunate because they paint a distorted picture of science. However, his stance on continuing to use fossil fuels is not new. So, the Guardian report is anything but breaking news. Lukas Scheid

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Climate.Table editorial team

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    777 million US dollars – that’s how much money the UAE, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and other donors pledged at COP28 on Sunday for the fight against tropical diseases. Diseases such as river blindness and sleeping sickness are becoming a growing threat due to climate change. The somewhat odd number draws attention. And attention is undoubtedly also a goal of the donor countries.

    After all, climate conferences are always a game of big numbers. Hundreds of millions are pledged here, tens of billions are promised there. Often, the highest sums hide the hope for the participation of the private sector. Bernhard Pötter presents some of these initiatives.

    Forest conservation also involves a lot of money. Brazil has presented new plans to preserve its tropical forests. What’s making it so special: If the forest is destroyed, the owners must pay a fine. But many things remain vague, reports Alexandra Endres.

    The number of visitors to this COP is also gigantic. It almost cracked the mark of 100,000 delegates. One of the visitors is Darren Woods. The Exxon CEO plans to be “the last survivor” in the oil and gas business, analysts say. Find out more about Woods and his fossil fuel plans in today’s Profile.

    Your
    Nico Beckert
    Image of Nico  Beckert

    Feature

    Finance: Let private money fix it

    Al Gore, former US vice president, is now a climate activist and major investor.

    In the never-ending search for financial resources for international climate policy, COP28 is breaking new ground. While the debate on climate financing has so far mainly revolved around government funding, the focus now turns to private capital for the global energy transition. Companies, governments, foundations and the financial sector are presenting extensive packages to promote global climate action with a focus on emerging and developing countries. However, criticism of these plans is also growing louder.

    Energy transition accelerator ETA

    On Sunday, US climate envoy John Kerry officially presented the Energy Transition Accelerator (ETA) in the US pavilion on the COP premises. The ETA is an initiative of the US State Department, the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bezos Earth Foundation. It brings together industry partners and countries to raise capital for the “transition off of dirty power and accelerate the clean energy future” via carbon credits in emerging and developing countries, as Kerry said.

    The idea is for companies such as Amazon, Bank of America, BCG, Morgan Stanley, PepsiCo and McDonald’s to buy credits from participating countries. So far, Chile, the Dominican Republic, Nigeria and the Philippines have expressed interest. The companies use these carbon credits to participate in the voluntary carbon market. In turn, the countries receive capital for developing renewables, power lines and decommissioning coal-fired power plants, for instance. The projects “will be guided by high-integrity methodologies and just transition safeguards.” Five percent of the revenue will be used for “adaptation and resilience in vulnerable countries.”

    Up to 200 billion dollars promised in 2035

    “These countries need around 1.9 trillion dollars in investment per year,” says Andrew Steer, who is advancing the project at the Bezos Earth Fund. “That’s seven times as much as is available today.” In 2035, the credits could mobilize between 72 and 207 billion dollars, it is said. This alone would be roughly on a par with the 100 billion dollars annually developed countries pledged to poor countries as climate financing from 2020 to 2025.

    The US government’s ETA was already presented at COP27 and is now set to be officially launched next spring. There was already criticism back then because it contradicted the UN body’s recommendations against greenwashing in the financial sector. Erika Lennon from the development organization CIEL has now declared that the initiative is a “lie and deception” intended to divert attention from the USA’s poor climate finance record. She said the idea relied on carbon markets, which had proven that they did not work, even with high standards. And the ETA is a “dangerous distraction” from the fact that the US is the world’s largest oil and gas producer.

    UAE investment pool with 30 billion

    The COP hosts, the United Arab Emirates, are also pushing ahead with restructuring global financial flows. With a promise of a billion-dollar green investment initiative, a new “catalytic climate finance vehicle” investment fund called Alterra is to “steer private markets towards climate investments and focus on transforming emerging markets and developing economies,” according to a statement from the COP presidency.

    The plan is to establish special public-sector cooperation in a country whose oil company Adnoc is a state-owned enterprise. Its CEO and current COP President Sultan Al Jaber is to oversee Alterra as chair of the supervisory board. Majid Al Suwaidi, Director General of COP28, will lead the company as CEO. He brings together a team of “climate finance specialists” for emerging and developing countries. The company will be based in Abu Dhabi.

    The fund is intended to raise 30 billion dollars for this purpose, which will trigger 250 billion dollars in low-carbon investments worldwide. Alterra will be the “world’s largest private investment vehicle for climate change action.” Its goal is to “drive forward international efforts to create a fairer climate finance system, with an emphasis on improving access to funding for the Global South.”

    The investment funds BlackRock, Brookfield and TPG are on board as private partners. Together, Alterra committed USD 6.5 billion to “climate-focused funds for global investments, including the Global South,” according to official information. Additional capital will also be raised “from other institutional investors and global organizations.” The structure will be “a transformative solution to attract private capital,” said Sultan Al Jaber.

    25 billion everywhere, five billion for poor countries

    Alterra will be divided into two areas. “Alterra Acceleration” will channel 25 billion US dollars of capital into large-scale climate investments with the best chance of accelerating the transition to net zero and a green economy. The unit will be an “anchor investor,” investing directly and channeling its money into partnerships in developed and emerging economies.

    Alterra Transformation,” the second and significantly smaller part of the company with five billion in capital, is intended to raise “risk mitigation capital” to stimulate investment flows to the Global South and circumvent existing obstacles to such investments. The unit also wants to “create opportunities to leverage concessional finance to further attract climate investment to Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).”

    The climate group 350.org has raised some questions about this project. “While in principle a step in the right direction, we would need to check that the claims by the presidency are not overblown,” says Andreas Sieber from 350.org. The majority of the announced 30 billion will be allocated at market conditions, and there are no guarantees that this will not lead to further debt in the recipient countries or flow into CCS technologies, for example.

    Germany favors private financing

    German Development Minister Svenja Schulze also recognizes the need to “shift the trillions” required for the global energy transition, which cannot be achieved from national budgets alone. “Effective climate action needs private capital above all,” the minister told Table.Media. “We can’t just finance this publicly. We need much more capital for the global climate and poverty reduction tasks. This makes it all the more important to get private money on board with the right framework conditions where there are business models. This can relieve the pressure on tight public budgets.”

    Brazil with fund for ‘forever forests’

    Brazil also proposes international financing for forest conservation and sustainable development. Unlike the Amazon Fund, which countries such as Norway and Germany already use to fund measures to counter deforestation, the new “Tropical Forests Forever” is supposed to ensure the preservation of forests. International donors, primarily sovereign wealth funds, would invest capital via a financial institution as an intermediary, with the returns generated being used to finance forest conservation in Brazil and other countries (See our second analysis for details).

    15.8 billion for JETP in Vietnam

    The global energy transition partnerships JETP also mobilize international capital for emerging countries. This money consists of public funds from developed countries and loans from private financial institutions at favorable rates. Following partnerships with South Africa, Indonesia and Senegal, Vietnam has now also announced its financing needs at COP28. Accordingly, 15.8 billion dollars are to flow into the energy transition, of which the international partners, above all, the EU, will provide over eight billion. The negotiations took roughly a year.

    • Climate financing
    • COP28
    • Finance
    • JETP

    Brazil campaigns new plan to preserve tropical forests

    Intact Brazilian rainforest: A new fund aims to improve rainforest conservation.

    Four months ago, twelve countries home to tropical forests agreed at the Amazon Summit in Belém, Brazil, to “develop innovative mechanisms” to harmonize rainforest conservation with social and economic concerns. These included key rainforest countries such as Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia. Brazil has now presented its first “innovative mechanism” at COP28.

    The plan is to finance rainforest conservation via a “Tropical Forests Forever” fund. Brazil hopes to initially “mobilize” at least 250 billion US dollars. It is not yet clear where the money is supposed to come from. Various ideas have been floated at the conference. One proposal aims to encourage sovereign wealth funds to invest.

    Money for every hectare saved

    So far, the resources available for global forest conservation have been limited. Deforestation is usually more profitable than preserving the ecosystem: Land is cleared for livestock and soya cultivation, for example, and nature is destroyed for oil drilling and gold mining. The new fund aims to change this by offering economic incentives to preserve ecosystems.

    The money will primarily go to the people and communities that protect and preserve the forest. According to the Brazilian government, around 80 countries could benefit from the fund. They would receive a fixed amount every year from a mechanism designed to be as simple as possible and therefore quick to implement – for every hectare of forest that is preserved or restored. For every hectare cut down, forest owners would have to pay a hundred times as much in fines.

    Fines could be the decisive factor in a forest owner’s economic considerations. According to Tasso Azevedo, the inventor of the Brazilian Amazon Fund, growing soya promises a significantly higher yield per hectare than conserving the forest, even with the money from the fund. However, a penalty that would cancel out payments of one hundred protected hectares is a powerful incentive to preserve the forest. In a recent article, Azevedo wrote that nature conservation must be guaranteed to yield tangible returns.

    Developing details with ‘partners’

    The initiative was presented at the COP28 by high-profile figures, including Environment Minister Marina Silva and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. Brazil is now inviting “partners” to develop the fund’s operational details, said Silva. The new fund is expected to be operational by COP30.

    However, to what extent other tropical countries will support the initiative remains unclear. Garo Batmanian told Table.Media that dialogue is ongoing with some of them. Batmanian is the General Director of the Brazilian Forestry Service at the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change of the Government of Brazil. However, he did not mention any specific names. His delegation said the initial goal was to initiate a dialogue about the new idea.

    A spokesperson for the Coalition for Rainforest Nations, which, according to its own information, includes more than 50 countries, did not comment specifically on Brazil’s initiative: “We support the Brazilian government under Lula in principle,” he merely stated, “and believe in the REDD+ mechanism of the UNFCCC.”

    REDD+ is an established concept that focuses on paying money for emissions avoided through forest conservation. It primarily sees the ecosystem as a carbon sink. Brazil’s initiative could be seen as competition. In fact, the Brazilian delegation claims that its own idea is much easier to implement than REDD+ and could, therefore, generate significant funds more quickly.

    25 dollars per hectare of forest – a hundredfold penalty for deforestation

    The idea is to no longer tie payments to the amount of carbon stored in a forest, but to the area preserved, thus considering that a forest also fulfills ecological and social functions. For example, a payment of 25 or 30 US dollars could be made per hectare – for every hectare of cut forest, the sum for one hundred hectares would be deducted.

    Batmanian explained that the fund is to be as simple as possible. The requirements should not be too detailed, partly to allow as many countries as possible to participate: “We all have forests. But we are at different stages of development and there are socio-economic and cultural differences between us. A one-size-fits-all approach would not do this justice.”

    Requirements for participating countries

    However, all participating countries should fulfill some fundamental criteria:

    • Their deforestation rates must be low and decline in the long term. It has yet to be determined how low the rate must be and how long the downward trend must last.
    • The countries must be able to verify and prove this through a credible monitoring system – either their own or one provided by a third party. For example, they could use FAO data.
    • The money from the forest fund is supposed to mainly benefit the people who protect and preserve the forest. This could be indigenous communities in Brazil, for instance. The money distribution mechanism will be “transparent and inclusive.” How the money will be distributed and its use will be documented has also not yet been determined.
    • The countries should make a long-term commitment to participate in the initiative.

    Possible sources of funding

    By winning sovereign wealth funds as investors, the hope is to raise adequate funds for the new mechanism. According to Batmanian, sovereign wealth funds manage combined global assets of twelve trillion dollars. They have clear investment rules: A large share of the money must be invested in safe AAA-rated bonds. Batmanian’s idea: A financial institution – the World Bank, for instance – issues such AAA bonds to investors at a standard market interest rate. The funds raised are then invested in the financial market. This is how it makes a profit. This could then flow into the conservation of tropical forests.

    It remains unclear how market fluctuations will be handled – and whether sovereign wealth funds can even make significant investments in the bonds Brazil’s fund wants to issue. They generally have to adhere to very strict conditions.

    Personally, Tasso Azevedo prefers a different source of finance: Oil producers could pay one dollar into the fund for every barrel produced – and Brazil could make a start. “What if we then asked the USA to also give a dollar? Or Saudi Arabia?” Private oil companies should also contribute, “only four or five years until we have achieved implementation.” He believes that the required sums would be raised quickly this way.

    • Wald

    Background: The 100 billion dollar promise

    What it’s about:

    At the otherwise failed COP15 climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009, developed countries pledged to “mobilize” 100 billion dollars annually from 2020 for climate adaptation and mitigation in developing countries. The money is intended to help countries that have contributed very little to the climate crisis but are most vulnerable to it.

    Why it’s important:

    On the one hand, the money is important for advancing the green transformation in the countries of the Global South. The need to reduce emissions, for instance through green technologies, and to adapt to climate change is huge: IRENA estimates that 35 trillion dollars will be needed worldwide by 2030 for investments in renewables alone. And the financial resources required for adaptation, especially in poor countries, are also huge: 215 billion annually by 2030. So far, poor countries have often had to raise a large proportion of this themselves, which is practically impossible in the debt crisis.

    Secondly, the “100 billion” have enormous political significance: Since they were not met in 2020 and 2021, this is widely seen by emerging and developing countries as proof that the Global North is not serious about the goals of the Paris Agreement. Documents and statements by negotiators regularly point this out.

    These are the details:

    Instead of the promised 100 billion, developed countries only delivered 83.3 billion in 2020, according to official OECD figures. The amount increased to 89.6 billion in 2021. Politically significant: The OECD stated that “preliminary data” showed “the goal [100 billion] looks likely to have already been met as of 2022.” This is now being proclaimed by many representatives of the North as a virtually confirmed fact.

    At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, Germany and Canada presented a concept for the developed countries to refute the accusation that the wealthy countries were shirking their obligations: The plan calls for the 100 billion to be reached in 2023 and for significantly more than 100 billion to flow each year thereafter until 2025 – bringing the total to 100 billion across a number of years. The current trend exceeds these calculations slightly.

    This is criticized:

    In addition to missing the target for 2020, 2021 and 2022, developing countries are also bothered by other things: For example, it was agreed in Glasgow that the money would be divided equally between emissions reduction (mitigation) and adaptation – but so far only around 25 percent has been allocated to adaptation funding. The background: Mitigation money flows faster, for example into wind and solar power plants, which are good businesses – and are mainly located in less poor countries. Adaptation measures are hardly a business model and are primarily needed in particularly poor countries.

    Oxfam also calculates that only around a third to a quarter of climate aid actually reaches the poor countries as net climate aid. The reason for this is that many activities are often booked under “climate action” in the accounts, which hardly achieve this. Another criticism is that many of the “mobilized” funds are just loans that poor countries can hardly afford. Grants only account for around a third.

    This could be an outcome of COP28:

    The announcement that the sum has been increased significantly and steadily and will break the 100 billion mark in 2023 is supposed to create a good mood at the COP – or at least take the wind out of the sails of the ongoing criticism. At the same time, however, countries such as China complain that the OECD’s data cannot be trusted.

    But the 100 billion debate is just a prelude. Because at COP28, a serious battle begins over what climate finance is supposed to look like in the future:

    • How much money will be needed? According to the Paris Agreement, a “new quantified financial goal” (NQFG) will apply from 2025, with the 100 billion being a lower limit. The negotiations on this target will arouse a lot of interest in Dubai.
    • Who should pay? No longer just the developed countries, but “all those who are in a position to do so,” as the developed countries demand – including financially strong emerging countries such as Korea, Singapore or China and rich oil states such as Saudi Arabia or the hosts of the UAE.
    • How will the large global capital flows be redirected from fossil to green investments? After all, “shifting the trillions” is one of the three main objectives of the Paris Agreement under Article 2 (1) (c).

    Events

    Dec. 4, 9 a.m., World Bank Pavilion
    Discussion Women as Catalysts for Climate Action for a Livable Planet
    The World Bank event will explore how public, private and civil society actors are working to catalyze green solutions that support climate and gender equality goals simultaneously. Info

    Dec. 4, 10 Uhr, The Women’s Pavilion – Humanitarian Hub
    Panel discussion Gendered Dimensions of Climate-Related Emergencies: Impact on Livelihoods, Food Security and Partnerships and Financing Through a Gender Lens
    Various UN institutions and humanitarian actors alongside local women’s organizations will discuss promising practices as well as challenges that the humanitarian sector faces in reducing risks and responding to women and girls’ needs in climate-induced crises across sectors. Info

    Dec. 4, 11:30 a.m., SE Room 7
    Discussion Coordinating for Greater Ocean-based Climate Change Ambition: A UN-Oceans Perspective
    UN-Oceans entities are coordinating for climate-smart, ecosystem-focused and sustainable ocean management and planning. With the Global Stocktake and increased ambition in mind, this side event will showcase how UN-Oceans is building synergies at the national and international levels for ocean-based mitigation and adaptation. Info

    Dec. 4, 4 p.m., Blue Zone
    Dialog High Level Dialogue on Gender-Responsive Just Transitions & Climate Action
    This ministerial dialog will launch the Gender-Responsive Just Transitions & Climate Action Partnership – bringing together a package of commitments to accessible funding, gender-responsive budgeting and data. Info

    News

    10 warnings from science: planning for an overshoot of 1.5 degrees

    While COP28 settles into the daily routine of negotiations after the optimistic opening days, the scientific community has sent another loud warning to the conference: Around 200 scientists have given an update on the latest climate and earth system research findings. In their report “10 New Insights in Climate Science” for 2023/2024, the consortium of think tanks, universities and UN agencies under the umbrella of the organizations Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme describes the latest scientific findings:

    • Exceeding the global average temperature of 1.5 degrees is “fast becoming inevitable.” Research shows that there is no pathway left to avoid exceeding 1.5 degrees due to insufficient carbon mitigation in the past – except for truly radical transformations. Minimizing the size and duration of the overshoot is important.
    • A rapid and planned phase-out of fossil fuels is necessary to stay close to the goals of the Paris Agreement. The CO2 budget is shrinking fast; “Governments and the private sector must stop enabling new fossil fuel projects.”
    • “Robust measures” are needed to achieve the required scale of carbon removal from the atmosphere (CDR). These are needed very soon for sectors that are difficult to decarbonize – and in the medium term to bring temperatures back down.

    Sinks are weakening, glaciers are melting faster

    • It is “a risky strategy” to overly rely on the absorption capacity of natural sinks: The extent of their future contribution to climate is uncertain. The sinks could well store less carbon than previously assumed.
    • The closely linked emergencies of climate and biodiversity must be addressed through a joint overall strategy and regulation.
    • “Compound events amplify climate risks and increase their uncertainty.” The combination of different simultaneous or subsequent risks can mean that the consequences are greater than the sum of the individual parts.
    • The loss of mountain glacier ice is accelerating. High mountain regions are particularly affected. This means that around two billion people are potentially at risk of water shortages in the long term. People living in mountainous regions are exposed to increased risks of flash floods.
    • People’s mobility is reduced in areas with high climate risks. Existing policy frameworks have failed to address situations where inhabitants of vulnerable areas are unable or unwilling to leave them.
    • Planning for adaptation to climate change often neglects equity. An index to measure adaptation equity can help increase resilience and minimize the risk of poor adaptation.
    • Reforming the food system contributes to climate justice. Food production and consumption play a central role in climate policy. However, action should be fair and consider the needs of all involved.

    Wishes for COP28

    With a view to COP28, the researchers write that the Global Stocktake should “reinforce the international commitment to mitigation to avoid long-lasting overshoot.” The scientists write: “We hope that this year’s 10 New Insights in Climate Science will be reflected in the outcomes at COP28.” Particularly:

    • Unambiguous steps toward a clear commitment to the fossil fuel phase-out.
    • Strengthening international aid for adaptation and disaster prevention
    • Recognizing the importance of restructuring the food system for climate action and climate justice.
    • Advancing the integration of climate action and biodiversity in international politics. bpo
    • COP28

    Study: Fossil states have hardly any phase-out plans

    So far, very few countries have committed to phase out fossil fuels. Around 88 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are now included in government targets to achieve net zero emissions. However, only 13 percent of all countries with net-zero targets have also committed to phasing out fossil fuels. This is the result of an analysis by Net Zero Tracker, an association of think tanks and foundations.

    More than 90 percent of oil and gas producing countries have not yet set a phase-out date for exploring and developing new reserves. The lack of phase-out plans showed a clear deviation from the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero Pathway, which sets out scenarios for achieving the 1.5-degree target and phasing out fossil fuels. According to this, the use of coal would have to fall by 95 percent by 2050, oil by 60 percent and natural gas by 45 percent. According to the Net Zero Tracker, things are looking better for coal. More than half of publicly listed coal companies with net zero targets have also set coal phase-out targets. kul

    • Fossile Brennstoffe

    France and Spain want international climate taxes

    France, Spain, Kenya, Barbados and Antigua and Barbuda set up a working group on international climate taxes at COP28. The task force is to identify new tax models before COP30 in order to mobilize “new, additional, and predictable, and adequate financial resources” for climate efforts in developing countries and emerging economies. Concrete proposals for international climate and development taxes will be presented at COP30 in two years. The task force is due to meet for the first time at the working level in spring 2024. Its secretariat will be set up at the European Climate Foundation.

    Among other things, the initiative builds on the Paris Summit for a new global financial pact in June 2023 and the Africa Climate Summit in September 2023. An international CO₂ tax was debated at the Africa Summit, for example, through a tax on fossil fuel trading, a tax on shipping fuels, levies on air travel or a financial transaction tax. According to calculations by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), such taxes could generate hundreds of billions of US dollars in revenue. nib

    • COP28
    • COP28
    • Finance
    • France
    • Spanien

    COP28: More delegates than ever before

    More than 97,000 participants have been registered for this year’s COP in Dubai. That is almost twice as many as last year in Egypt. A list of all delegates by name was published for COP28 for the first time.

    With more than 4,400 delegates, the host country, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is the largest group. In addition, the UAE has invited around 5,000 guests to the “Blue Zone” of the climate conference. These include many lobbyists, the interim head of BP, Murray Auchincloss, and Larry Fink from BlackRock, writes the Financial Times.

    UAE and Brazil lead, Myanmar and Afghanistan not represented

    Brazil (3,081), China and Nigeria (1,411 each) have also registered very large delegations. Indonesia, Japan and Turkey have also registered more than 1,000 people. Germany is sending 468 delegates. In contrast, Afghanistan and Myanmar are not sending any representatives. According to a Carbon Brief analysis, 62 percent of participants are male and only 38 percent female.

    In order to ensure greater fairness in the representation of interests, authors of a recent study by Lund University in Sweden demand an upper limit for the number of delegates a country can send to the climate conference. Large and financially strong countries benefit from the current participant structure. kul

    • Vereinigte Arabische Emirate

    Heads

    Darren Woods – Exxon boss supports CCS and more efficient fracking

    Darren Woods, CEO von Exxon Mobile
    Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil. This was the first time an Exxon CEO attended a climate conference.

    Darren Woods is the first ExxonMobil CEO to attend a climate conference. At COP28, the business model of fossil fuel giants is also being negotiated indirectly: a phase-out or phasing down of oil and gas production. Woods wants to prevent this because his course for Exxon is clear: The company plans to be the “last man standing” in the oil and gas business, as one observer puts it.

    The company did join a new initiative of 50 oil and gas companies at COP28. Their aim is to reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuel production to zero by 2050 and significantly reduce methane emissions by 2030. But critics see this as just a fig leaf. Unlike some other oil and gas companies, Exxon hardly invests in renewables. Quite the opposite.

    57-year-old Woods has been CEO of Exxon since January 2017. During his time in office, Exxon has invested tens of billions of US dollars in a shale oil company and in CCS infrastructure. The company also invests heavily in its own production off the coast of Guyana. Woods is convinced that the energy transition will take “many decades.” According to Exxon, oil and gas will still account for more than half of energy demand in 2050.

    Exxon has ‘captured more CO2 than any other company

    Like COP President Al Jaber, Woods wants to “address the emissions associated with the combustion of oil and gas.” and “find the technology to do that.” Fossil fuels offer “a level of convenience, reliability, and affordability that is hard to replace,” said the Exxon CEO in an interview with consulting firm McKinsey. There is too much talk about the end of fossil fuels at COP28, Woods told the Financial Times.

    Born in the industrial city of Wichita, Kansas, Woods strongly supports CCS technology. He studied electrical engineering and has a Master of Business Administration (MBA). He is married and has three children. “By training, I’m an engineer, which in many ways is how I still see myself – as someone who solves problems,” says Woods about himself. “I’m a father and grandfather – who cares about his family, their quality of life, and their futures.”

    And he boasts that Exxon has “captured more CO2 than any other company.” However, most CCS applications are used to expand oil and gas production. Exxon sees new business opportunities here. In the summer of 2023, the oil multinational acquired Denbury Inc. for USD 4.9 billion, giving it the largest network of CO2 pipelines in the United States. The deal is part of Exxon’s promise to invest over 17 billion US dollars in “low-carbon solutions” by 2027, as the company calls its investments in CCS, hydrogen and biofuels.

    60 billion US dollars for shale oil takeover

    But Wood’s biggest takeover targets a shale oil producer. Exxon plans to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources and its production licenses in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico for USD 60 billion – and still awaits the green light from the Biden administration. The company describes the takeover as a “win for the environment” and claims it can extract the oil with fewer emissions than Pioneer. In late 2020, Exxon’s carbon footprint attracted a lot of criticism, culminating in a campaign by activist investor Engine No. 1. However, the three board members of Engine No. 1 accepted the acquisition of Pioneer. Woods hopes to double the revenue from the shale oil deposits through technical improvements in fracking.

    Under Woods, Exxon also continues to play a significant political role. When it comes to shaping the energy transition, Exxon can”play a role in bringing expertise and our understanding of today’s energy system to bear,” Woods told McKinsey. In day-to-day political business, however, this is sometimes done somewhat more aggressively. In the summer of 2021, Exxon’s chief lobbyist, Keith McCoy, described Biden’s climate plans as “insane.” Exxon only agreed to a carbon tax because it was unlikely, McCoy said in a video secretly recorded by activists. The Exxon lobbyist admitted that Exxon was pressuring senators and supporting shadow groups that cast the government’s climate policy in a bad light. Woods called the statements “disturbing and inaccurate.”

    Lobbying for CCS and blue hydrogen

    Exxon currently lobbies the US government on hydrogen subsidies. The company wants to ensure that hydrogen from gas (“blue hydrogen”) is also considered green and that producers like Exxon should receive high subsidies. The aim is to capture and store the CO2 generated during production.

    Woods, who joined the company in 1992, is well-off thanks to the fossil fuel course he has charted for Exxon. During the energy crisis 2022, his annual income skyrocketed to almost 36 million US dollars. His basic salary was raised by ten percent to nearly two million US dollars. US President Joe Biden criticized the company at the time, saying it was making “more money than God.” Exxon is taking legal action against the EU tax on windfall profits. If the tax goes through, the company faces payments of at least two billion US dollars. A decision by the European Court of Justice is still pending. Nico Beckert

    Dessert

    The heads of state and government have left Dubai, and the Global Stocktake negotiations are gaining momentum. A second draft text was actually expected on Sunday afternoon. However, the informal negotiations continued until late evening and possibly into the morning.

    By the end of the first COP week, the most important text of this conference should be sorted to the point where the ministers can make political decisions on the various options in the second week. Many countries – including European countries – are calling for a “phase out” or at least a “phase down of fossil fuels” to make COP28 a success. The big question remains: Is a phase-out/phase-down even an option for COP President Al Jaber?

    This was the subject of heated debate in Dubai on Sunday in light of statements made by the COP28 President. According to reports in the Guardian, Al Jaber claimed shortly before the start of the COP that there was no scientific evidence and no scenario to prove that 1.5 degrees could be achieved by phasing out the use of fossil fuels. Al Jaber said that phasing out fossil fuels would take the global community back to the caves.

    As a reminder: UN head Guterres declared just last Friday that the science was clear. “The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate.”

    According to the Guardian, Al Jaber’s team defended their boss’s comments. The 1.5-degree scenarios from the IEA and IPCC showed that fossil fuels would have to play a role in the future energy system, albeit a smaller one. Al Jabers is not entirely wrong. Neither IPCC nor IEA reports clearly call for a fossil fuel phase-out. However, many of the scientists who write these reports do. In addition, the CO2 reduction pathway specified by the 6th IPCC Assessment Report for a 1.5-degree scenario (99 percent reduction by 2050) does not, in fact, allow for the large-scale use of fossil fuels.

    Al Jaber’s remarks are unfortunate because they paint a distorted picture of science. However, his stance on continuing to use fossil fuels is not new. So, the Guardian report is anything but breaking news. Lukas Scheid

    • COP28

    Climate.Table editorial team

    CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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