Much of yesterday’s COP day revolved around energy. 118 countries committed to tripling renewable energies by 2030 – an issue with hardly any disputes. However, India and China did not join the initiative. Lukas Scheid and Nico Beckert provide the background. The initiative of around 20 countries to triple nuclear power capacity caused more discussion.
At least just as controversial: 50 oil and gas producers have pledged to reduce methane emissions significantly. But even conference president Sultan Al Jaber urged the fossil fuel giants to show more ambition on Scope 3 emissions. Nico Beckert explains the reasons behind the new industry initiative and which large emitters have joined the Global Methane Pledge.
Bernhard Pötter has compiled the promises made by the heads of state and government at the World Climate Action Summit. His conclusion: The mood remains positive! A surprise at this year’s COP.
We also look at today’s health day: We provide an overview of the connections between health and the climate crisis and Marina Romanello, Director of the Lancet Countdown, explains why the health crisis should be a core issue at the climate conference.
On the third day of the COP, progress was made on the regulation of methane, one of the most dangerous greenhouse gases – although so far, only with new developments and announcements. The USA presented a new regulation of the oil and gas sector. Turkmenistan, one of the largest methane emitters, has joined the Global Methane Pledge, committing to reduce emissions by at least 30 percent by 2030. And COP President Al Jaber presented an industry initiative, the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC).
Methane “is the most destructive gas,” US climate envoy John Kerry said during a briefing. This greenhouse gas is 80 times more harmful than CO2 in the short term. There is no way to meet the 1.5-degree target if the world does not reduce methane emissions immediately, said Kerry.
In Dubai, Kerry and Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua reiterated the results of the latest bilateral climate cooperation. In the Sunnylands Statement, China declared the intention to include methane and other non-CO2 gases in its 2035 NDC for the first time. Xie noted that China has “a weak foundation” and still needs to improve its technical capabilities and regulations to control methane emissions.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has also introduced new regulations in the United States. Oil and gas producers must identify and repair leaks. The routine flaring of methane has been banned. In addition, inspections will be stepped up, and independent third parties will be required to report methane leaks directly to the EPA. As Reuters reported, the oil and gas industry criticized these regulations because they would place too much power in the hands of environmental groups. The NGO Climate Nexus described the rules as a “welcome step forward.” According to Climate Nexus, existing methane sources from the oil and gas industry will be regulated for the first time, not just new ones. According to John Kerry, the regulation will cut methane emissions by almost 80 percent.
COP President Al Jaber has launched an industry initiative aimed at reducing methane emissions. 50 oil and gas companies have signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC). According to Al Jaber, 31 companies have committed to reducing their emissions by 2030 for the first time. However, this is not enough, says Al Jaber. The oil and gas sector must do more to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions. At the same time, it must also invest more in green energies and technologies in order to reduce Scope 3 emissions, i.e., emissions generated by end consumers when burning fossil fuels.
Initiative members include ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Occidental Petroleum and the state-owned companies Petrobras, NNPC from Nigeria and Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGaz. Chevron and ConocoPhillips as well as the Chinese state-owned companies, are not involved.
OGDC member companies pledge to reduce their methane emissions to “almost zero” and end the routine gas flaring. Specifically: Methane emissions during extraction, i.e., methane intensity, may only amount to 0.2 percent of the total volume of gas sold. Fred Krupp, President of the NGO Environmental Defense Fund, called it a significant step forward. Many extraction companies currently have a methane intensity of 2 to 3 percent. The target of a maximum of 0.2 percent would mean an emissions reduction of 80 to 90 percent. Krupp also welcomes the fact that the results are to be verified by a third, independent party.
Melanie Robinson, Global Climate Program Director of the World Resources Institute, criticized the initiative because most oil and gas companies worldwide already have strict methane emission reduction requirements. What is needed are stringent measures to monitor progress to hold oil and gas companies accountable.
Al Jaber’s initiative has also received criticism in the run-up to the COP. It was accused of being just another of numerous existing industry initiatives and omitting the sector’s Scope 3 emissions. So far, the initiatives appear to have had hardly any significant effect. There is still “a consistently high level of annual methane emissions,” said Gould. “The intensity of methane emissions in global production is only decreasing slightly. We are still well above where the industry should be.” The UAE has not stood out as a frontrunner in reducing methane intensity, either.
Turkmenistan, one of the largest methane emitters in the world, joined the Global Methane Pledge yesterday. The central Asian country ranks fourth among the world’s biggest polluters of methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. As Kerry announced, Kazakhstan, Angola, Kenya and Romania have also joined the pledge.
The US Americans particularly welcomed Turkmenistan’s participation. In 2022, methane leaks from the country’s two largest oil and gas fields caused more greenhouse gas emissions than the UK, according to a Guardian investigation. The country is considered a close ally of the UAE. Analysts suspect the COP host used its influence to get Turkmenistan to sign up for the Methane Pledge.
More than 150 countries have joined the Global Methane Pledge since its inception in 2021. However, only a handful have so far presented tangible plans on how to achieve the reduction targets. It remains to be seen whether Turkmenistan will present such plans once the spotlight of COP28 fades.
At COP28 in Dubai, 118 countries spoke out in support of an ambitious expansion pathway for renewable energy capacities. Tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 is one of the most crucial projects to be implemented at this COP. To achieve this, renewable energy capacity would have to increase from 3,600 gigawatts (2022) to 11,000 GW (eleven terawatts). The signatories include developed countries, numerous developing and island states as well as emerging economies.
The declaration of intent addresses several problems. Tripling renewables would:
Because the 118 countries do not want to be the only ones. On Saturday, COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that they want to see the ambitious expansion path for renewables included in the final document of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference. The EU and other ambitious countries are going even further: They want to see the expansion path linked to a phase-out/phase-down of fossil fuels. However, host Al Jaber could not be persuaded to do more than announce that the plan would help to move away from unabated coal power.
This means it will probably become a bargaining chip for other outcomes of this COP. In addition to John Kerry, EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has already voiced his criticism in the run-up to COP28: “You cannot just have the renewables goal and then call the COP a success.” One thing is clear: The issue of renewable energy expansion and energy efficiency is far from settled in Dubai.
The plan, which the EU first presented eight months ago, has nevertheless received a lot of support in Dubai. “The widespread support for this declaration demonstrates that renewable energy has moved from the sidelines to center stage,” said Jennifer Layke, Global Energy Director at the World Resources Institute (WRI). “Tripling annual renewable energy capacity over the next six years would be the single largest step the world can take toward achieving our global climate goals.”
However, there are also concerns, as G20 countries such as India, China and Russia have not signed the agreement. China apparently has less of a problem with expanding renewables, but is much more bothered by the efficiency target. India is known to have problems signing a text that aims to end coal-fired power generation. This is all the more remarkable given that the G20 still supported the renewables target in September.
The question of who will enable the transition to renewables in the Global South and the emerging countries has also not yet been fully resolved. A high debt burden and a sharp rise in interest rates make it difficult for many countries to raise capital for expansion. “Wealthy countries must do much more to finance affordable renewable energy around the world,” demanded WRI expert Layke.
Ursula von der Leyen also knows this. “In some countries, the cost of capital for renewables is prohibitively high,” explained the Commission President, announcing 2.3 billion euros from the EU budget over the next two years for supporting the energy transition “in our neighborhood and around the globe.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) are to monitor and report on progress. The IEA has already shown that such an expansion is possible in the first place. It estimates that around 500 gigawatts of renewable energy will be generated in 2023, an increase of 69 percent compared to last year. If the growth trend continues, the IEA believes this figure could triple by 2030. If growth remains at 500 gigawatts per year, it will only double by 2030, according to analyses by the energy think tank Ember.
According to IRENA, solar and wind energy will account for the largest share of the 11,000 gigawatts, with almost 5,500 GW (solar) 3,000 GW (onshore wind) and just under 500 GW (offshore wind).
However, there are also hurdles: While the solar industry is performing well, the wind industry’s capacities are not yet sufficient to reach the target, warns the IEA. Political support is needed to expand production capacities. Approval procedures for the construction of wind power plants also need to be accelerated, and all countries need to increase investment in the expansion of electricity grids and a more flexible electricity system.
On its second and third day, COP28 successfully overcame another hurdle. The speeches by the roughly 100 heads of state and government at the World Climate Action Summit largely displayed a willingness to work on issues and cooperate. After a successful start with the decision on the loss and damage fund (LDF) and the swift adoption of the agenda, the mood remains constructive for the time being, according to reports from the negotiating rooms.
Many observers thus consider the COP temperature “cautiously positive.” Despite ongoing differences, there was no deadlock at the start of the conference – as was the case at the SBSTA58 in the summer. Finger pointing, otherwise common in speeches to a global audience – which are also held primarily for the national audience – mostly happened quietly. Even the war in Gaza, which the Israeli army resumed on the first day of the two-day speech marathon, has not yet dominated the negotiations.
“The speeches largely focused on cooperation and progress,” analyzed Linda Kalcher from the European think tank Strategic Perspectives. “There was a focus on the targets for renewables and efficiency.” There were also the statements that “more funding in developing countries would allow for more progress” and a clear call for a “reform of multinational organizations.”
Indeed, the COPs have become less about major ground-breaking decisions and more about implementing the resolutions as quickly as possible. Large ideological clashes have given way to pragmatic considerations. Simultaneously, escalating climate change impacts in many parts of the world drive politicians to prioritize concrete action. Speakers frequently emphasized the need to massively expand renewables and increase energy efficiency. However, the flip side of this – the fossil fuel phase-out – was hardly mentioned.
On the other hand, the Gaza war had an indirect impact on the agenda. While Jordan King Abdullah bin al Hussein and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan highlighted the desperate situation of the Palestinians and harshly criticized Israel, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who was supposed to be the first guest to speak, did not appear. Israel’s President Isaac Herzog also did not take to the podium as planned. The Iranian delegation had already left the conference due to the Israeli presence.
Beyond the Gaza conflict, however, the speeches given by state leaders showed additional positive signs:
For the first time, COP28 will have a health day (December 3), including a health ministerial. This will focus more attention on the topic at the climate conference.
The climate crisis is affecting the well-being of affected people in many ways: Higher temperatures and heat directly impact people’s health. According to the latest Lancet report, a warming of two degrees Celsius could result in around 3.7 times as many people worldwide dying from the effects of heat in 2050. Humans are already exposed to life-threatening heat an average of 86 days a year. The effects of the climate crisis also increase the risk of infectious diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks.
In addition, the use of fossil fuels has an impact on air quality and thus favors respiratory diseases, for instance. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution is responsible for seven million premature deaths annually. In 2021, medical journals called climate change “the greatest threat to global public health.” In October 2023, 200 leading health publications urged the WHO to declare a global health emergency as a result of the climate and biodiversity crises.
However, the healthcare sector is also a large emitter, accounting for 4.4 percent of global emissions. The majority of these emissions originate from the supply chain of healthcare services.
A declaration on climate change and health will be adopted at COP28. A draft is already available. The draft was submitted by the COP presidency of the United Arab Emirates and was not negotiated with the individual states.
The key points are:
The COP presidency’s draft already drew criticism in the run-up to the conference. Health organizations around the world pointed out the absence of a demand to phase out fossil fuels. They noted “glaring omissions” in the draft.
In early November, more than 46 million employees in the healthcare sector wrote an open letter calling to exclude the fossil fuel lobby from the climate negotiations. Their argument: Similar to negotiations on the harmfulness of tobacco, polluters have no place at the negotiating table.
The declaration on climate change and health will likely be adopted – possibly with minor changes. It remains to be seen whether some countries will also make further commitments and measures on climate change and health. This could include, for example, commitments or pledges for better financing in this area. Such commitments could, for example, be included in the annex to the declaration.
Our continued dependence on fossil fuels is damaging our health and pushing global temperatures to record levels. The interlinked climate calamities of the past few years – extreme weather events, food insecurity, water scarcity, and worsening air pollution – are a direct result of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But the adverse effects we are experiencing today could be just a preview of the catastrophes that await us.
That is the key finding of the latest Lancet Countdown report on climate change and health, authored by a group of leading health and climate scientists that I led. Undoubtedly, this grim conclusion will not come as a shock to the millions of people suffering from climate-related health issues and their loved ones. Most of us, wherever we live, are directly or indirectly affected by this crisis.
As climate change worsens, its effects on our physical and mental health are no longer hypothetical. Our research finds that, compared with 1981-2010, the increasing frequency of heatwaves and droughts over the past few years has exposed 127 million more people to moderate or severe food insecurity in 2021. Meanwhile, outdoor air pollution from the combustion of dirty fuels claims 1.9 million lives annually, and infectious diseases like dengue are expanding to new regions.
Yet, despite 27 years of annual climate-change negotiations, world leaders still refuse to acknowledge the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels. Despite overwhelming evidence that fossil-fuel combustion is the primary driver of the current health crisis, a draft statement on climate change and health, set to be released during the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, omits any reference to the issue.
With many countries and companies backtracking on their climate commitments, the world is moving in the wrong direction. At the current rate of GHG emissions, we are heading for a global temperature increase of nearly 3° Celsius by 2100, far above the 1.5°C target established by the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
The consequences could be catastrophic. Even with a global mean temperature increase of just under 2°C, annual heat-related deaths are projected to increase by 370 percent by mid-century. The most vulnerable groups, the elderly and children, are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days as they were 30 years ago. And with heatwaves becoming increasingly frequent, the number of people suffering from moderate or severe food insecurity could increase by roughly 525 million by mid-century.
Beyond these direct effects, the climate crisis undermines individual well-being and the socioeconomic conditions necessary for a healthy population. In 2022, extreme heatwaves resulted in a loss of 490 billion working hours worldwide. Even if we manage to limit global warming to just below 2°C, heat-related labor loss is projected to increase by 50 percent.
It should be emphasized that these effects are not distributed evenly. The regions that have contributed the least to climate change – Africa, South and Central America, Asia, and small island developing states – often bear the brunt of climate-related health risks.
Given the urgency of the threat we face, the current pace of global efforts to reduce emissions is insufficient, falling far short of the Paris Agreement’s targets. Energy-based emissions hit an all-time high in 2022, while renewables still account for only 9.5 percent of the world’s electricity. Households around the world still rely on dirty fuels. In the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, families rely on polluting fuels for 92 percent of their domestic energy, subjecting residents to toxic air inside their own homes.
While policymakers are tempted to address this crisis incrementally, solving one problem at a time or focusing on adaptation alone is insufficient. Without significant emissions reductions, adaptation will be futile. The climate-fueled health crisis cannot be solved without urgently shifting away from fossil fuels. By focusing on climate policies that enhance public health and well-being, governments could prevent premature deaths, build a more resilient population and a stronger workforce, and bolster their domestic economies.
How can this be achieved? Our report outlines eleven concrete measures across five priority areas. First and foremost, to ensure that climate hazards remain within the adaptive capacity of our health systems, we must reduce GHG emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement. This requires a concerted effort to phase out fossil fuels through a just energy transition that mitigates the health effects of air pollution and expands access to clean, renewable energy, especially in the world’s most underserved regions, where energy poverty remains a challenge.
At the same time, we must accelerate adaptation efforts to protect communities already suffering from the health consequences of climate change by bolstering cooperation between the health sector, environmental organizations, and meteorological services. And by eliminating all subsidies, lending, and investment in fossil fuels, we can create space for climate financing and resource allocation to support adaptation efforts in vulnerable countries.
The health sector must lead this transition. Strengthening health adaptation is critical to ensuring that our health systems can protect us amid escalating climate disruptions. Crucially, we must implement public health measures that reduce air pollution, advocate healthier low-carbon diets, encourage active lifestyles, and enforce regulations on polluting industries. And, given that the health sector itself accounts for 4.6 percent of global GHG emissions and has influence over roughly 11 percent of the world’s economy, it could play a significant direct role in global decarbonization.
COP28 is a test of world leaders’ commitment to tackle this crisis. A genuine focus on health could catalyze a rapid and sustained shift away from fossil fuels and facilitate adaptation efforts. Failing to do so will result in a conference that does little more than pay lip service to health concerns and validate our collective inaction. Climate-related deaths will continue to increase, and a livable future will drift further beyond reach.
Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown, is a climate change and health researcher at University College London.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023.
www.project-syndicate.org
Much of yesterday’s COP day revolved around energy. 118 countries committed to tripling renewable energies by 2030 – an issue with hardly any disputes. However, India and China did not join the initiative. Lukas Scheid and Nico Beckert provide the background. The initiative of around 20 countries to triple nuclear power capacity caused more discussion.
At least just as controversial: 50 oil and gas producers have pledged to reduce methane emissions significantly. But even conference president Sultan Al Jaber urged the fossil fuel giants to show more ambition on Scope 3 emissions. Nico Beckert explains the reasons behind the new industry initiative and which large emitters have joined the Global Methane Pledge.
Bernhard Pötter has compiled the promises made by the heads of state and government at the World Climate Action Summit. His conclusion: The mood remains positive! A surprise at this year’s COP.
We also look at today’s health day: We provide an overview of the connections between health and the climate crisis and Marina Romanello, Director of the Lancet Countdown, explains why the health crisis should be a core issue at the climate conference.
On the third day of the COP, progress was made on the regulation of methane, one of the most dangerous greenhouse gases – although so far, only with new developments and announcements. The USA presented a new regulation of the oil and gas sector. Turkmenistan, one of the largest methane emitters, has joined the Global Methane Pledge, committing to reduce emissions by at least 30 percent by 2030. And COP President Al Jaber presented an industry initiative, the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC).
Methane “is the most destructive gas,” US climate envoy John Kerry said during a briefing. This greenhouse gas is 80 times more harmful than CO2 in the short term. There is no way to meet the 1.5-degree target if the world does not reduce methane emissions immediately, said Kerry.
In Dubai, Kerry and Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua reiterated the results of the latest bilateral climate cooperation. In the Sunnylands Statement, China declared the intention to include methane and other non-CO2 gases in its 2035 NDC for the first time. Xie noted that China has “a weak foundation” and still needs to improve its technical capabilities and regulations to control methane emissions.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has also introduced new regulations in the United States. Oil and gas producers must identify and repair leaks. The routine flaring of methane has been banned. In addition, inspections will be stepped up, and independent third parties will be required to report methane leaks directly to the EPA. As Reuters reported, the oil and gas industry criticized these regulations because they would place too much power in the hands of environmental groups. The NGO Climate Nexus described the rules as a “welcome step forward.” According to Climate Nexus, existing methane sources from the oil and gas industry will be regulated for the first time, not just new ones. According to John Kerry, the regulation will cut methane emissions by almost 80 percent.
COP President Al Jaber has launched an industry initiative aimed at reducing methane emissions. 50 oil and gas companies have signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC). According to Al Jaber, 31 companies have committed to reducing their emissions by 2030 for the first time. However, this is not enough, says Al Jaber. The oil and gas sector must do more to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions. At the same time, it must also invest more in green energies and technologies in order to reduce Scope 3 emissions, i.e., emissions generated by end consumers when burning fossil fuels.
Initiative members include ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Occidental Petroleum and the state-owned companies Petrobras, NNPC from Nigeria and Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGaz. Chevron and ConocoPhillips as well as the Chinese state-owned companies, are not involved.
OGDC member companies pledge to reduce their methane emissions to “almost zero” and end the routine gas flaring. Specifically: Methane emissions during extraction, i.e., methane intensity, may only amount to 0.2 percent of the total volume of gas sold. Fred Krupp, President of the NGO Environmental Defense Fund, called it a significant step forward. Many extraction companies currently have a methane intensity of 2 to 3 percent. The target of a maximum of 0.2 percent would mean an emissions reduction of 80 to 90 percent. Krupp also welcomes the fact that the results are to be verified by a third, independent party.
Melanie Robinson, Global Climate Program Director of the World Resources Institute, criticized the initiative because most oil and gas companies worldwide already have strict methane emission reduction requirements. What is needed are stringent measures to monitor progress to hold oil and gas companies accountable.
Al Jaber’s initiative has also received criticism in the run-up to the COP. It was accused of being just another of numerous existing industry initiatives and omitting the sector’s Scope 3 emissions. So far, the initiatives appear to have had hardly any significant effect. There is still “a consistently high level of annual methane emissions,” said Gould. “The intensity of methane emissions in global production is only decreasing slightly. We are still well above where the industry should be.” The UAE has not stood out as a frontrunner in reducing methane intensity, either.
Turkmenistan, one of the largest methane emitters in the world, joined the Global Methane Pledge yesterday. The central Asian country ranks fourth among the world’s biggest polluters of methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. As Kerry announced, Kazakhstan, Angola, Kenya and Romania have also joined the pledge.
The US Americans particularly welcomed Turkmenistan’s participation. In 2022, methane leaks from the country’s two largest oil and gas fields caused more greenhouse gas emissions than the UK, according to a Guardian investigation. The country is considered a close ally of the UAE. Analysts suspect the COP host used its influence to get Turkmenistan to sign up for the Methane Pledge.
More than 150 countries have joined the Global Methane Pledge since its inception in 2021. However, only a handful have so far presented tangible plans on how to achieve the reduction targets. It remains to be seen whether Turkmenistan will present such plans once the spotlight of COP28 fades.
At COP28 in Dubai, 118 countries spoke out in support of an ambitious expansion pathway for renewable energy capacities. Tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030 is one of the most crucial projects to be implemented at this COP. To achieve this, renewable energy capacity would have to increase from 3,600 gigawatts (2022) to 11,000 GW (eleven terawatts). The signatories include developed countries, numerous developing and island states as well as emerging economies.
The declaration of intent addresses several problems. Tripling renewables would:
Because the 118 countries do not want to be the only ones. On Saturday, COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that they want to see the ambitious expansion path for renewables included in the final document of this year’s UN Climate Change Conference. The EU and other ambitious countries are going even further: They want to see the expansion path linked to a phase-out/phase-down of fossil fuels. However, host Al Jaber could not be persuaded to do more than announce that the plan would help to move away from unabated coal power.
This means it will probably become a bargaining chip for other outcomes of this COP. In addition to John Kerry, EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has already voiced his criticism in the run-up to COP28: “You cannot just have the renewables goal and then call the COP a success.” One thing is clear: The issue of renewable energy expansion and energy efficiency is far from settled in Dubai.
The plan, which the EU first presented eight months ago, has nevertheless received a lot of support in Dubai. “The widespread support for this declaration demonstrates that renewable energy has moved from the sidelines to center stage,” said Jennifer Layke, Global Energy Director at the World Resources Institute (WRI). “Tripling annual renewable energy capacity over the next six years would be the single largest step the world can take toward achieving our global climate goals.”
However, there are also concerns, as G20 countries such as India, China and Russia have not signed the agreement. China apparently has less of a problem with expanding renewables, but is much more bothered by the efficiency target. India is known to have problems signing a text that aims to end coal-fired power generation. This is all the more remarkable given that the G20 still supported the renewables target in September.
The question of who will enable the transition to renewables in the Global South and the emerging countries has also not yet been fully resolved. A high debt burden and a sharp rise in interest rates make it difficult for many countries to raise capital for expansion. “Wealthy countries must do much more to finance affordable renewable energy around the world,” demanded WRI expert Layke.
Ursula von der Leyen also knows this. “In some countries, the cost of capital for renewables is prohibitively high,” explained the Commission President, announcing 2.3 billion euros from the EU budget over the next two years for supporting the energy transition “in our neighborhood and around the globe.”
The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) are to monitor and report on progress. The IEA has already shown that such an expansion is possible in the first place. It estimates that around 500 gigawatts of renewable energy will be generated in 2023, an increase of 69 percent compared to last year. If the growth trend continues, the IEA believes this figure could triple by 2030. If growth remains at 500 gigawatts per year, it will only double by 2030, according to analyses by the energy think tank Ember.
According to IRENA, solar and wind energy will account for the largest share of the 11,000 gigawatts, with almost 5,500 GW (solar) 3,000 GW (onshore wind) and just under 500 GW (offshore wind).
However, there are also hurdles: While the solar industry is performing well, the wind industry’s capacities are not yet sufficient to reach the target, warns the IEA. Political support is needed to expand production capacities. Approval procedures for the construction of wind power plants also need to be accelerated, and all countries need to increase investment in the expansion of electricity grids and a more flexible electricity system.
On its second and third day, COP28 successfully overcame another hurdle. The speeches by the roughly 100 heads of state and government at the World Climate Action Summit largely displayed a willingness to work on issues and cooperate. After a successful start with the decision on the loss and damage fund (LDF) and the swift adoption of the agenda, the mood remains constructive for the time being, according to reports from the negotiating rooms.
Many observers thus consider the COP temperature “cautiously positive.” Despite ongoing differences, there was no deadlock at the start of the conference – as was the case at the SBSTA58 in the summer. Finger pointing, otherwise common in speeches to a global audience – which are also held primarily for the national audience – mostly happened quietly. Even the war in Gaza, which the Israeli army resumed on the first day of the two-day speech marathon, has not yet dominated the negotiations.
“The speeches largely focused on cooperation and progress,” analyzed Linda Kalcher from the European think tank Strategic Perspectives. “There was a focus on the targets for renewables and efficiency.” There were also the statements that “more funding in developing countries would allow for more progress” and a clear call for a “reform of multinational organizations.”
Indeed, the COPs have become less about major ground-breaking decisions and more about implementing the resolutions as quickly as possible. Large ideological clashes have given way to pragmatic considerations. Simultaneously, escalating climate change impacts in many parts of the world drive politicians to prioritize concrete action. Speakers frequently emphasized the need to massively expand renewables and increase energy efficiency. However, the flip side of this – the fossil fuel phase-out – was hardly mentioned.
On the other hand, the Gaza war had an indirect impact on the agenda. While Jordan King Abdullah bin al Hussein and Turkish President Recep Erdoğan highlighted the desperate situation of the Palestinians and harshly criticized Israel, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who was supposed to be the first guest to speak, did not appear. Israel’s President Isaac Herzog also did not take to the podium as planned. The Iranian delegation had already left the conference due to the Israeli presence.
Beyond the Gaza conflict, however, the speeches given by state leaders showed additional positive signs:
For the first time, COP28 will have a health day (December 3), including a health ministerial. This will focus more attention on the topic at the climate conference.
The climate crisis is affecting the well-being of affected people in many ways: Higher temperatures and heat directly impact people’s health. According to the latest Lancet report, a warming of two degrees Celsius could result in around 3.7 times as many people worldwide dying from the effects of heat in 2050. Humans are already exposed to life-threatening heat an average of 86 days a year. The effects of the climate crisis also increase the risk of infectious diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks.
In addition, the use of fossil fuels has an impact on air quality and thus favors respiratory diseases, for instance. According to the World Health Organization, air pollution is responsible for seven million premature deaths annually. In 2021, medical journals called climate change “the greatest threat to global public health.” In October 2023, 200 leading health publications urged the WHO to declare a global health emergency as a result of the climate and biodiversity crises.
However, the healthcare sector is also a large emitter, accounting for 4.4 percent of global emissions. The majority of these emissions originate from the supply chain of healthcare services.
A declaration on climate change and health will be adopted at COP28. A draft is already available. The draft was submitted by the COP presidency of the United Arab Emirates and was not negotiated with the individual states.
The key points are:
The COP presidency’s draft already drew criticism in the run-up to the conference. Health organizations around the world pointed out the absence of a demand to phase out fossil fuels. They noted “glaring omissions” in the draft.
In early November, more than 46 million employees in the healthcare sector wrote an open letter calling to exclude the fossil fuel lobby from the climate negotiations. Their argument: Similar to negotiations on the harmfulness of tobacco, polluters have no place at the negotiating table.
The declaration on climate change and health will likely be adopted – possibly with minor changes. It remains to be seen whether some countries will also make further commitments and measures on climate change and health. This could include, for example, commitments or pledges for better financing in this area. Such commitments could, for example, be included in the annex to the declaration.
Our continued dependence on fossil fuels is damaging our health and pushing global temperatures to record levels. The interlinked climate calamities of the past few years – extreme weather events, food insecurity, water scarcity, and worsening air pollution – are a direct result of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But the adverse effects we are experiencing today could be just a preview of the catastrophes that await us.
That is the key finding of the latest Lancet Countdown report on climate change and health, authored by a group of leading health and climate scientists that I led. Undoubtedly, this grim conclusion will not come as a shock to the millions of people suffering from climate-related health issues and their loved ones. Most of us, wherever we live, are directly or indirectly affected by this crisis.
As climate change worsens, its effects on our physical and mental health are no longer hypothetical. Our research finds that, compared with 1981-2010, the increasing frequency of heatwaves and droughts over the past few years has exposed 127 million more people to moderate or severe food insecurity in 2021. Meanwhile, outdoor air pollution from the combustion of dirty fuels claims 1.9 million lives annually, and infectious diseases like dengue are expanding to new regions.
Yet, despite 27 years of annual climate-change negotiations, world leaders still refuse to acknowledge the urgent need to phase out fossil fuels. Despite overwhelming evidence that fossil-fuel combustion is the primary driver of the current health crisis, a draft statement on climate change and health, set to be released during the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, omits any reference to the issue.
With many countries and companies backtracking on their climate commitments, the world is moving in the wrong direction. At the current rate of GHG emissions, we are heading for a global temperature increase of nearly 3° Celsius by 2100, far above the 1.5°C target established by the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
The consequences could be catastrophic. Even with a global mean temperature increase of just under 2°C, annual heat-related deaths are projected to increase by 370 percent by mid-century. The most vulnerable groups, the elderly and children, are now exposed to twice as many heatwave days as they were 30 years ago. And with heatwaves becoming increasingly frequent, the number of people suffering from moderate or severe food insecurity could increase by roughly 525 million by mid-century.
Beyond these direct effects, the climate crisis undermines individual well-being and the socioeconomic conditions necessary for a healthy population. In 2022, extreme heatwaves resulted in a loss of 490 billion working hours worldwide. Even if we manage to limit global warming to just below 2°C, heat-related labor loss is projected to increase by 50 percent.
It should be emphasized that these effects are not distributed evenly. The regions that have contributed the least to climate change – Africa, South and Central America, Asia, and small island developing states – often bear the brunt of climate-related health risks.
Given the urgency of the threat we face, the current pace of global efforts to reduce emissions is insufficient, falling far short of the Paris Agreement’s targets. Energy-based emissions hit an all-time high in 2022, while renewables still account for only 9.5 percent of the world’s electricity. Households around the world still rely on dirty fuels. In the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, families rely on polluting fuels for 92 percent of their domestic energy, subjecting residents to toxic air inside their own homes.
While policymakers are tempted to address this crisis incrementally, solving one problem at a time or focusing on adaptation alone is insufficient. Without significant emissions reductions, adaptation will be futile. The climate-fueled health crisis cannot be solved without urgently shifting away from fossil fuels. By focusing on climate policies that enhance public health and well-being, governments could prevent premature deaths, build a more resilient population and a stronger workforce, and bolster their domestic economies.
How can this be achieved? Our report outlines eleven concrete measures across five priority areas. First and foremost, to ensure that climate hazards remain within the adaptive capacity of our health systems, we must reduce GHG emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement. This requires a concerted effort to phase out fossil fuels through a just energy transition that mitigates the health effects of air pollution and expands access to clean, renewable energy, especially in the world’s most underserved regions, where energy poverty remains a challenge.
At the same time, we must accelerate adaptation efforts to protect communities already suffering from the health consequences of climate change by bolstering cooperation between the health sector, environmental organizations, and meteorological services. And by eliminating all subsidies, lending, and investment in fossil fuels, we can create space for climate financing and resource allocation to support adaptation efforts in vulnerable countries.
The health sector must lead this transition. Strengthening health adaptation is critical to ensuring that our health systems can protect us amid escalating climate disruptions. Crucially, we must implement public health measures that reduce air pollution, advocate healthier low-carbon diets, encourage active lifestyles, and enforce regulations on polluting industries. And, given that the health sector itself accounts for 4.6 percent of global GHG emissions and has influence over roughly 11 percent of the world’s economy, it could play a significant direct role in global decarbonization.
COP28 is a test of world leaders’ commitment to tackle this crisis. A genuine focus on health could catalyze a rapid and sustained shift away from fossil fuels and facilitate adaptation efforts. Failing to do so will result in a conference that does little more than pay lip service to health concerns and validate our collective inaction. Climate-related deaths will continue to increase, and a livable future will drift further beyond reach.
Marina Romanello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown, is a climate change and health researcher at University College London.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023.
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