We wish you a happy and successful new year. Considering the climate crisis, however, this is not so easy. After all, the past year 2024 did not offer much reason to celebrate: global warming exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold, emissions were higher than ever, the UN climate system found itself under even greater pressure and the climate crisis once again took a back seat in elections and other decisions.
Many people are wondering what 2025 holds in store for climate policy. We look ahead for you and show you what we need to prepare for: The most important political and economic trends; the outlook for EU climate policy against the backdrop of the Polish Council Presidency; and a comprehensive overview of the events, decisions and conferences that will be important for your calendar.
Not much to be excited for? Perhaps. But we only show what can be expected – surprises, even positive ones, can never be ruled out. This has recently again been demonstrated by the unexpected fall of the terrorist regime in Syria. A look into the new year should therefore also show where confidence is possible and realistic.
With this in mind, we look forward to continuing to provide you with news, analysis and background information in 2025.
Your Bernhard Pötter
Feature
2025: These trends will shape the climate year
Extreme weather on the rise: Stacked cars in Valencia. What images and trends will shape the climate year 2025?
2025 will (once again) be a crucial year for global climate policy. Following the new all-time CO2 emission peaks from the energy industry, record temperatures and rising damage from extreme weather events in 2024, these causes and consequences of the global climate crisis will increasingly shape the coming year. 2024 was the warmest year ever recorded, with global average temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees overall.
However, other developments will also directly and indirectly influence international energy and climate policy:
Global carbon emissions could finally peak. Data on oil consumption and carbon emissions from China at least suggest this. So far, global emissions have only ever risen with interruptions, most recently to a new record of 57 billion tons in 2023. And time is running out with every passing year: If we are to have any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, global emissions must be practically halved over the next five years.
The triumphant rise of renewable energies will continue in 2025. Falling prices for power generation and storage and the growing demand for electricity are driving the development further: Around the world, twice as much money is flowing into renewables as into fossil fuels. However, fossil fuels are not disappearing from the portfolio fast enough to truly reduce emissions. The distribution of renewable investments also remains uneven: Emerging regions such as Africa are hardly considered.
Meanwhile, investments in fossil fuels remain high and companies are scrapping their climate targets – even though, according to IEA statements, the climate targets can only be achieved without adding new fossil fuel projects. Many private and state energy companies abandon their climate and net-zero targets. Banks withdraw their climate strategies for their portfolios.
The voice of science in the climate process is becoming weaker: The IPCC is at risk of losing relevance for the UN process and climate negotiations. In February, the Panel will decide on the timetable for its next report (AR7) – if it sticks to the current timetable, these crucial reports will come too late to inform the next Global Stocktake (GST) at COP33 in 2028. On top of this, countries such as Saudi Arabia, India and Russia have been slowing down internal climate policy processes for months, including at the IPCC. If the USA joins them under Trump II, the science/policy body faces a standstill.
The new NDCs for 2035 in/from February will decide how seriously countries take their collective commitment under the Paris Agreement. So far, the UN balance sheet for the NDCs is sobering and forecasts only around three percent fewer emissions for 2030, when a minus of around 50 percent is necessary. The road to Belém will show whether the Baku financial deal of 300 billion/1.3 trillion dollars by 2035 has effectively improved the NDCs of many emerging and developing countries.
Belém, Trump II and elections in key countries
The “Road Baku to Belém” will shape the future of the climate negotiations: By COP30, a clear idea is needed of how the 300 billion dollars pledged by developed countries at COP29 and the total 1.3 trillion in investments are to be raised by 2035. This poses significant problems: Tight public budgets after Covid and Ukraine war spending; the largely ignored debt crisis in many developing countries; the possible exit of the US from the climate finance system; and the debate over whether developed countries will really raise more money at all with the 300 billion dollars or rely on accounting tricks.
The pressure on public budgets could lead to debates about new financing options, particularly in the EU. If the Europeans, alongside Japan, Australia and New Zealand, are to shoulder the brunt of the 300 billion roadmap after a possible US exit, they will need new ideas for sources of income: Taxes on the super-rich, levies on fossil fuel production, on business class flights or on shipping will become more attractive. And possibly even the reduction of “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies, which has long been agreed but never really materialized.
The new US administration Trump II will also make important climate policy decisions: Will it withdraw from the Paris Agreement or the Framework Convention on Climate Change? Or will it stay in the agreements and slow down and destroy the processes from within? Will Trump appoint a climate envoy, and if so, who? Will Washington and Beijing continue their separate climate negotiations despite the confrontation on an economic, political and military level?
Future UN negotiations will be shaped much more by autocratic governments than by liberal democracies: Beijing will fill part of the leadership role left vacant by the US. The US position will hardly support the camp of the rules-based UN order. Emerging economies such as the Gulf states, Indonesia, Turkey and Argentina have little to fear from democratic control of their global climate policy at home. The behavior of the COP29 presidency in Baku, its chaotic actions, the way it ignored many actors and its violation of many unwritten rules were already a bad omen for this development.
The EU and China will consider a new leadership duo in global climate policy. A new bloc could be formed: Russia/Saudi Arabia/USA as producers and exporters of fossil resources, EU/China as hubs of renewable energies and green transformation. However, this would require Brussels and Beijing to resolve or at least minimize conflicts over trade and political issues such as human rights.
The elections in Germany, Poland, Australia and Canada will shape the course of key developed countries and the EU: Including climate targets and NDCs for 2035, the energy mix and emissions (tar sands in Canada, debate on nuclear power in Australia) and the will to contribute to international climate financing.
Climate activists in many countries seek a way to deal with the growing right-wing populism. In the USA, but also in countries such as Argentina, Italy, Poland, Hungary, the Netherlands, France and Sweden, right-wing populist governments and movements dominate – including climate policy. The traditionally left-liberal climate movement struggles to find arguments and strategies to implement climate policy even under these conditions and with these forces. Keywords: expansion of renewables as independence, new jobs in the green industry, local decision-making on energy policy.
Atomkraft
Climate policy
COP29
USA
Outlook: These events will be important in 2025
Like in 2017, Donald Trump will be sworn in as US President on January 20, 2025. His decisions will be important for US and international climate policy.
Various dates are upcoming both internationally and in Germany that will influence climate policy this year. We have summarized the key ones for you. Internationally important:
January 20: Donald Trump will officially be inaugurated as US President. His presidency will most likely be a setback for climate action, but he probably won’t be able to undo all progress made in recent years.
January 20-24: The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) is held in Davos. This year’s motto is “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age.” The core topics are “Rebuilding Trust,” “Rethinking Growth,” and “Investing in People.” Climate finance and global financial architecture also traditionally play a role there.
February 10: This is the deadline for submitting new national climate targets under the UNFCCC (NDCs). How ambitious the climate targets are, especially those of key countries, greatly impacts global progress in reducing emissions.
February 24-28: The IPCC will meet in a plenary session in Hangzhou, China. The key decision on the timetable for the next Assessment Report AR7 will be made at this meeting.
February 25 to 27: The United Nations will meet again in Rome as it could not negotiate a final declaration at last year’s COP16 biodiversity conference in Colombia. There are numerous overlaps between global climate and species conservation – not least the fact that there is a chronic lack of funding for both.
March 11-14: The Sustainable Energy for All Global Forum will be held in Bridgetown, Barbados. Building on Prime Minister Mia Mottley’s Bridgetown Initiative, the aim is to discuss how enough money can be mobilized for the energy transition, particularly in developing countries and island states.
April 21-26: The traditional spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will take place in Washington. The annual meeting is then held from October 13 to 18, also in Washington. The results of the two meetings are crucial for reforms to the international (climate) finance architecture.
May: Australia votes, but the exact date has not yet been set. Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, wants to turn the election into a referendum on the future of nuclear power in the country. His government had recently focused on more climate action and a stronger expansion of renewables. The Australian opposition, on the other hand, proposed in December to replace coal in the country with nuclear power rather than renewables.
June: The G7 summit will be held in Kananaskis, Canada. The informal forum of seven of the biggest developed countries will discuss global economic issues. The exact date has not yet been set.
June 16-26: The interim conference of the Climate COP SB62 (UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Implementation, SBI and Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, SBSTA) will take place in Bonn. It prepares decisions and work steps for the COP30 in Brazil.
September: The United Nations will meet in New York for the 80th General Assembly (UNGA). From September 9-23, there will be various program items, including a Sustainability Week Summit and high-level meetings.
November 27-28: The G20 summit is expected to take place in Johannesburg, South Africa. South Africa took over the G20 presidency at the beginning of December and focuses on mobilizing resources for the just energy transition. Prior to this, the G20 Climate & Environment Ministerial is scheduled to take place on October 9.
November 10-21: The COP30 World Climate Conference will convene in Belém, Brazil. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva intends to present Brazil as a climate pioneer. Although deforestation in the Amazon has recently decreased, there is repeated criticism of new oil drilling. There are also doubts as to whether the infrastructure in Belém can accommodate a climate conference of this size.
November 20: Canada votes. The country has had great difficulty achieving its climate targets in the past. Although the current liberal government has introduced some climate change measures in the past year, current polls suggest that the liberals will lose to the conservatives. Canada’s conservatives have strongly criticized climate action measures such as the emissions cap for the oil and gas sector in the past.
December 12: The Paris Climate Agreement celebrates its 10th anniversary.
Important events in the EU
Climate policy in the EU will be influenced by the following dates and topics in the coming year, including:
January 1: Poland takes over the EU Council Presidency. The presidency will focus on security and defense. Poland also elects a new president in May. Denmark then takes over in July for the rest of the year.
Spring: The EU Commission plans to present its Clean Industrial Deal, the Green Deal 2.0, in the first 100 days of its term of office. The plan for achieving net zero emissions by 2050 and competitive growth in the European economy should therefore be presented by the beginning of March at the latest.
Spring: According to the official timetable, the revision of the EU Climate Law, including a 90 percent greenhouse gas reduction by 2040, is also scheduled for spring.
May: The presidential election is coming up in Poland. After the parliamentary elections in 2024, the political future of the country is once again decided: Will the right-wing nationalist PiS or Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition continue to appoint the president? A climate election campaign, on the other hand, is not expected.
October: The Czech Republic elects a new parliament. The exact date is not yet known.
Key dates in Germany
Germany will also set a decisive course at the national level in the coming year:
February 14: The climate movement around Fridays for Future will mobilize for the next climate strike. The climate movement is currently debating how it can reposition itself. For example, the Last Generation recently announced its intention to change its name.
February 14-16: The Munich Security Conference will be held. The intersections between climate and security play a growing role both in international conflicts and at the conference.
February 23: Germany will elect a new parliament. The outcome of the parliamentary elections and the subsequent formation of a coalition will play a pivotal role in shaping climate policy in the coming years.
March 2: Hamburg will elect a new parliament. It is the only state election in Germany this year.
End of spring: The Petersberg Climate Dialogue will take place in Berlin at this time. The event, hosted by the Federal Foreign Office, also serves as preparation for the COP. The exact date is not yet known.
Klima & Umwelt
Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz
UNFCCC
EU climate target 2040: Why little progress can be expected under Poland’s Council Presidency
Commission President von der Leyen with Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk: The presidential election in Poland is also shaping the Council Presidency.
The EU is unlikely to take a leading role in international efforts to improve climate action in the new year either. The unambitious Hungarian Council Presidency will be followed by the Polish Presidency. The national situation in Poland threatens to delay important milestones in European climate policy such as the EU’s 2040 climate target – possibly even into the second half of the year.
At the EU Environment Council in mid-December, the EU environment ministers once again discussed how much Europe wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. No agreement was reached on the 2040 climate target, although the Commission had already tabled the offer of 90% fewer greenhouse gases than in 1990 in February 2024.
The EU is also likely to miss the international deadline for the next climate target (NDC) for 2035, which it has to submit to the UN by the end of February. The Commission makes no secret of this, but without an agreement between the countries, its hands are tied.
The European NDC for 2035 depends on the EU’s 2040 climate target. A line will be drawn between the targets for 2030 (55% GHG reduction) and 2040, and the 2035 target will be read off from this, as announced by EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra at COP29 in Baku. If the EU states agree on a 90 percent GHG reduction by 2040, the NDC for 2035 would be 72.5 percent.
‘Putting pressure on China’
It would be an ambitious goal. The only question is whether and, above all, when it will come. “A clear and early signal from the EU regarding climate targets for the period after 2030 would put pressure on other governments, including China, to speed up the transition and give investors certainty,” says Marc Weissgerber, Managing Director of the Berlin office of the think tank E3G.
Europe is lagging behind in the G20 timetable. Brazil, the UK, Canada and even the USA have already announced their NDC for 2035. According to observers, even China is ready to present its NDC but wants to link it to the announcement of the European target. The lack of agreement between the EU states on the 2040 target therefore also has an impact on China, which is highly relevant in terms of climate policy.
The most important key figures of the previous NDCs for 2035 at a glance:
Brazil: Net GHG reduction of 59 to 67 percent compared to 2005
Canada: GHG reduction of 45 to 50 percent compared to 2005
USA: Net GHG reduction of 61 to 66 percent compared to 2005
United Arab Emirates: GHG reduction of 47 percent compared to 2019
Great Britain: GHG reduction of 81 percent compared to 1990
Another ‘exchange of ideas’ in Brussels
There was only an exchange of ideas at the EU Environment Council in December. The Hungarian Council Presidency wanted to know from the member states how climate legislation could be simplified in order to place less of a burden on companies and what basic prerequisites (“enabling conditions”) need to be created for the new climate target. Almost the same debate had already been held under Belgian Council leadership six months ago, but not much has happened since then.
No agreement was even sought at the Council meetings of ministers or at the summits of heads of state and government. Even at the end of June, when the heads of state adopted the so-called Strategic Agenda up to 2029, climate policy was only dealt with in passing. At the EU summit in December, the topic was left out despite pressure from civil society to agree on future climate targets.
Agreement not until the second half of 2025?
“The EU is now running out of time,” says Weissgerber. Weissgerber fears that the elections in Germany, Poland and Romania could probably postpone an agreement on the path to climate neutrality until the second half of 2025 or later. He sees it as a “missed opportunity” to make a clear commitment to climate policy leadership after the elections in the USA and COP29.
Germany is also failing to live up to its claim to be the EU’s climate policy leader, despite paying lip service to the idea. This is not only due to the former FDP participation in the government, which put the brakes on climate policy, as the German government has still not taken a clear position.
Berlin is simply not in a hurry, observers report. The European election campaign, the reorganization of the EU executive, and the Hungarian Council Presidency are slowing things down. The calculation is that an agreement will be reached in the new year. Although the EU will miss the UN deadline, the NDC will be ambitious. This has long been on the back burner, as the next Polish Council Presidency is itself highly skeptical of a 90 percent target for 2040.
No climate election campaign in Poland
The country would have to take the lead in negotiating the goal as chair of the member states, but at the same time has completely different problems. An extremely important presidential election is due to take place in Poland in May. The outcome will decide whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s citizens’ coalition will have more room for maneuver or whether it will have to continue to deal with a president from the right-wing nationalist PiS party.
There will certainly not be a climate election campaign, as Tusk’s camp is also questioning new climate action targets and fears additional social burdens in particular. In order not to make himself vulnerable to the PiS, the issue is therefore unlikely to play a role even among pro-Europeans.
It is therefore questionable whether it will even be possible to reach an agreement on the EU’s 2040 climate target in the first half of 2025. Even supporters of an ambitious EU climate policy agree that an election victory for pro-European forces in Poland is more important than an agreement on a 90% reduction in greenhouse gases by February.
EU-Klimaziel 2040
News
Heat pump subsidy in Germany: huge surge before Christmas
Uncertainty about the future of state subsidies for eco-friendly heating systems led to a sharp increase in applications submitted to the KfW at the end of the year. This is shown by figures provided by the responsible Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (BMWK) on request. In the week before Christmas (December 16 to 22), 16,821 main applications and 3,358 additional applications for further residential units were received; this is more than twice as many per week as in the previous three weeks and around four times as many as the weekly figures in October.
The background is likely the CDU/CSU’s announcement that funding would be severely cut in the event of an election victory. There have also been concerns that no new funding commitments could be made in January due to insufficient budgets; however, the BMWK has repeatedly rejected these as unfounded. The KfW figures mentioned refer to all eco-friendly heating systems; a breakdown of the individual technologies is not yet available. In the past, around 80 percent of applications concerned heat pumps. If the figures remain as high as in December, the German government’s target of 500,000 new heat pumps per year would be within reach. In 2024, the figure was only around 200,000. mkr
Heat turnaround
Wärmewende
2024: These were the ten most expensive extreme weather events
Three of the ten costliest extreme weather events worldwide in 2024 affected Europe – first and foremost storm Boris in September over Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria and Romania, which claimed 26 lives and caused damage worth 5 billion US dollars. The floods in southern Germany in early June also caused damages totaling 4.45 billion US dollars. However, the estimates of the British aid organization Christian Aid usually only reflect insured damage. This means that the true costs of individual extreme weather events are generally even higher, while personal losses remain uncounted.
The USA is repeatedly at the top of the list of climate disasters, in terms of material damage in US dollars:
At least 60 billion, 88 deaths: Storms excluding hurricanes (USA) over the full year 2024.
Damage and casualty figures in poorer countries often underrepresented
Climate change has exacerbated many of these extreme weather events. For example, an analysis of past events by Carbon Brief shows that 74 percent of them would have been less severe without global warming. “Disasters are being supercharged by decisions to keep burning fossil fuels,” criticizes Patrick Watt, CEO of Christian Aid. His organization also lists ten other climate disasters in 2024 that occurred more slowly but were similarly deadly – mainly in poorer countries, where fewer data is available, and records of economic damage are sometimes unavailable.
These include events that are particularly dangerous due to the interplay of several factors (compound events):
Landslide in the Philippines: 22 people died and 400,000 people were displaced. The monsoon and two tropical cyclones were the triggers.
Drought in southern Africa: Between February and July, a drought in South Africa caused damage of 228 million US dollars in Zambia alone. According to Christian Aid, however, the damage is likely significantly higher. Nine million people were affected in total, mainly due to crop failures and diseases such as cholera, which killed 700 people.
Heatwave over Gaza: In April, Gaza was hit by a heatwave of over 40°C. Climate change made it five times more likely and affected 1.7 million displaced people. Due to the war, they live in makeshift tents, some of which heat up more than outdoors. Many also lack safe access to water and healthcare. lb
Extreme weather
Hochwasser
NGO
World Weather Attribution
At the start of the year: What the increased CO2 price means
Fuel and heating with fossil fuels could become more expensive from the start of the year. The reason: On January 1, 2025, the CO2 price increased from 45 to 55 euros per ton. According to the German automobile club ADAC and the trade association Fuels and Energy (en2x), gasoline could then become 3 cents more expensive per liter, diesel and heating oil a little more than 3 cents.
In addition, the so-called greenhouse gas reduction quota will increase at the turn of the year, according to en2x. To achieve this, fuel suppliers will have to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions in transport, for example by increasing the proportion of renewable fuels. “The extent to which these changes will be reflected in consumer prices at gas stations and in the heating oil trade depends largely on the development of world market prices for mineral oil products.”
According to ADAC, the increase in the CO2 levy “might not be very noticeable” if, for example, crude oil becomes cheaper. The levy is only one component that makes up fuel prices. Fuel prices have fallen since spring.
Natural gas: A single-family home pays 43 euros more for heating
According to comparison portal Verivox, people who heat with gas pay around 0.22 cents more per kilowatt-hour due to the higher CO2 price. Extrapolated to the heating requirements of a single-family home with a consumption of 20,000 kilowatt-hours of natural gas, this is around 43 euros more per year.
Oliver Klapschus, Managing Director of the HeizOel24 portal, said that crude oil prices are expected to remain constant or fall slightly in 2025. Without any major geopolitical crises or disasters, there is currently no reason for heating oil prices to fluctuate up or down by more than 10 cents. The increase in CO2 pricing only plays a lesser role in the price forecast. The surcharge is within the range of a normal weekly fluctuation in heating oil prices, he said. dpa/lb
Energie
ETS
Transit contract ends: Russia stops gas exports through Ukraine
Russia stopped gas exports to Europe through Ukraine on Wednesday morning. The transit contract between Gazprom and the Ukrainian supplier Naftogaz had expired at the turn of the year at Kyiv’s instigation. Transit through Ukraine had recently accounted for around five percent of natural gas imports to Europe.
Most EU countries abandoned Russian gas after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and Moldova, in particular, had been receiving gas via the Ukrainian pipelines until recently and now have to find alternatives.
Slovakia’s largest gas importer SPP announced that it would supply all customers via alternative routes, mainly via pipelines from Germany and Hungary. However, this would incur additional costs for transit fees.
Austria considers itself prepared
Thanks to well-stocked gas storage facilities and alternative import routes via Italy and Germany, Austria considers itself well-prepared for the supply stop. According to Austrian Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler on X, gas supplies are secure and the country no longer depends on Russia.
The EU Commission had already stated on Tuesday that it did not expect any supply disruptions. “The European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to provide gas of non-Russian origin to Central and Eastern Europe via alternative routes,” said the agency. After the attack on Ukraine, considerable new LNG import capacities have been built up since 2022.
The German Economy Ministry also believes that the EU is well-prepared. A spokesperson said that Germany’s supply is just as guaranteed as that of neighboring countries without coastal access. The capacities of the German LNG terminals are also available to companies from other EU member states.
Fico threatens Ukraine
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, on the other hand, had warned Ukraine against discontinuing the transit agreement. The pro-Moscow politicianthreatened to cut electricity supplies to the neighboring country. He had visited President Vladimir Putin in Moscow shortly before Christmas to discuss gas transit.
Fico criticized that his country would miss out on hundreds of millions of euros in transit revenue for the continued gas transit to the West. He added that the higher fees for alternative routes would also lead to increased gas and electricity prices in Europe.
Ukraine has been saying for months that it would not renew its contract with Russia. A stop is in the national interest, explained Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko: “We have stopped the transit of Russian gas, this is a historic event.”
Kyiv argues that this would deprive the Kremlin of revenue from gas exports. According to think tank Bruegel, Russia would lose 6.5 billion dollars if it were unable to reroute gas supplies. However, Ukraine would also lose around one billion dollars annually in gross transit fees. rtr/tho
Gasspeicher
Must-Reads
Deutsche Welle: Philippines leads the movement for climate justice. As one of the countries most affected by climate change, the Philippines is at the forefront of the climate justice movement and will host the loss and damage fund board. The fund, which was officially launched at COP28, is designed to compensate developing countries for climate-related loss and damage, with the Philippines calling for rapid operationalization and distribution of funds. The funding gap remains a major challenge. Read the article
CNN: How Saudi Arabia blocks global climate progress. The oil-rich kingdom has systematically obstructed UN negotiations on climate change, biodiversity and pollution. It employs various tactics to delay climate action, as its economy relies heavily on fossil fuels. Despite its own climate targets, such as Vision 2030, experts describe Saudi Arabia as a “climate destroyer,” while the country itself highlights its pragmatic approaches. Read the article
Financial Times: Climate change changes the European wine landscape. Wine-growing regions are shifting to colder northern areas such as Denmark, England and Scandinavia. Traditional regions in Southern Europe struggle with challenges such as earlier harvests, higher alcohol content and increasing drought. Winemakers adapt by growing at higher altitudes, introducing heat-resistant and new grape varieties and using irrigation and hybrid vines. These changes challenge traditional concepts of “terroir and appellation” and require a balance between innovation and tradition in the European wine industry. To the article
Reuters: New York asks fossil fuel companies to pay up. New York has passed a bill that will charge fossil fuel companies a total of 75 billion US dollars for climate damage over the next 25 years. The money is to be used to adapt infrastructure to climate change, with companies charged based on their greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2018. New York is the second US state after Vermont to introduce such a law. Read the article
We wish you a happy and successful new year. Considering the climate crisis, however, this is not so easy. After all, the past year 2024 did not offer much reason to celebrate: global warming exceeded the 1.5-degree threshold, emissions were higher than ever, the UN climate system found itself under even greater pressure and the climate crisis once again took a back seat in elections and other decisions.
Many people are wondering what 2025 holds in store for climate policy. We look ahead for you and show you what we need to prepare for: The most important political and economic trends; the outlook for EU climate policy against the backdrop of the Polish Council Presidency; and a comprehensive overview of the events, decisions and conferences that will be important for your calendar.
Not much to be excited for? Perhaps. But we only show what can be expected – surprises, even positive ones, can never be ruled out. This has recently again been demonstrated by the unexpected fall of the terrorist regime in Syria. A look into the new year should therefore also show where confidence is possible and realistic.
With this in mind, we look forward to continuing to provide you with news, analysis and background information in 2025.
Your Bernhard Pötter
Feature
2025: These trends will shape the climate year
Extreme weather on the rise: Stacked cars in Valencia. What images and trends will shape the climate year 2025?
2025 will (once again) be a crucial year for global climate policy. Following the new all-time CO2 emission peaks from the energy industry, record temperatures and rising damage from extreme weather events in 2024, these causes and consequences of the global climate crisis will increasingly shape the coming year. 2024 was the warmest year ever recorded, with global average temperatures exceeding 1.5 degrees overall.
However, other developments will also directly and indirectly influence international energy and climate policy:
Global carbon emissions could finally peak. Data on oil consumption and carbon emissions from China at least suggest this. So far, global emissions have only ever risen with interruptions, most recently to a new record of 57 billion tons in 2023. And time is running out with every passing year: If we are to have any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees, global emissions must be practically halved over the next five years.
The triumphant rise of renewable energies will continue in 2025. Falling prices for power generation and storage and the growing demand for electricity are driving the development further: Around the world, twice as much money is flowing into renewables as into fossil fuels. However, fossil fuels are not disappearing from the portfolio fast enough to truly reduce emissions. The distribution of renewable investments also remains uneven: Emerging regions such as Africa are hardly considered.
Meanwhile, investments in fossil fuels remain high and companies are scrapping their climate targets – even though, according to IEA statements, the climate targets can only be achieved without adding new fossil fuel projects. Many private and state energy companies abandon their climate and net-zero targets. Banks withdraw their climate strategies for their portfolios.
The voice of science in the climate process is becoming weaker: The IPCC is at risk of losing relevance for the UN process and climate negotiations. In February, the Panel will decide on the timetable for its next report (AR7) – if it sticks to the current timetable, these crucial reports will come too late to inform the next Global Stocktake (GST) at COP33 in 2028. On top of this, countries such as Saudi Arabia, India and Russia have been slowing down internal climate policy processes for months, including at the IPCC. If the USA joins them under Trump II, the science/policy body faces a standstill.
The new NDCs for 2035 in/from February will decide how seriously countries take their collective commitment under the Paris Agreement. So far, the UN balance sheet for the NDCs is sobering and forecasts only around three percent fewer emissions for 2030, when a minus of around 50 percent is necessary. The road to Belém will show whether the Baku financial deal of 300 billion/1.3 trillion dollars by 2035 has effectively improved the NDCs of many emerging and developing countries.
Belém, Trump II and elections in key countries
The “Road Baku to Belém” will shape the future of the climate negotiations: By COP30, a clear idea is needed of how the 300 billion dollars pledged by developed countries at COP29 and the total 1.3 trillion in investments are to be raised by 2035. This poses significant problems: Tight public budgets after Covid and Ukraine war spending; the largely ignored debt crisis in many developing countries; the possible exit of the US from the climate finance system; and the debate over whether developed countries will really raise more money at all with the 300 billion dollars or rely on accounting tricks.
The pressure on public budgets could lead to debates about new financing options, particularly in the EU. If the Europeans, alongside Japan, Australia and New Zealand, are to shoulder the brunt of the 300 billion roadmap after a possible US exit, they will need new ideas for sources of income: Taxes on the super-rich, levies on fossil fuel production, on business class flights or on shipping will become more attractive. And possibly even the reduction of “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies, which has long been agreed but never really materialized.
The new US administration Trump II will also make important climate policy decisions: Will it withdraw from the Paris Agreement or the Framework Convention on Climate Change? Or will it stay in the agreements and slow down and destroy the processes from within? Will Trump appoint a climate envoy, and if so, who? Will Washington and Beijing continue their separate climate negotiations despite the confrontation on an economic, political and military level?
Future UN negotiations will be shaped much more by autocratic governments than by liberal democracies: Beijing will fill part of the leadership role left vacant by the US. The US position will hardly support the camp of the rules-based UN order. Emerging economies such as the Gulf states, Indonesia, Turkey and Argentina have little to fear from democratic control of their global climate policy at home. The behavior of the COP29 presidency in Baku, its chaotic actions, the way it ignored many actors and its violation of many unwritten rules were already a bad omen for this development.
The EU and China will consider a new leadership duo in global climate policy. A new bloc could be formed: Russia/Saudi Arabia/USA as producers and exporters of fossil resources, EU/China as hubs of renewable energies and green transformation. However, this would require Brussels and Beijing to resolve or at least minimize conflicts over trade and political issues such as human rights.
The elections in Germany, Poland, Australia and Canada will shape the course of key developed countries and the EU: Including climate targets and NDCs for 2035, the energy mix and emissions (tar sands in Canada, debate on nuclear power in Australia) and the will to contribute to international climate financing.
Climate activists in many countries seek a way to deal with the growing right-wing populism. In the USA, but also in countries such as Argentina, Italy, Poland, Hungary, the Netherlands, France and Sweden, right-wing populist governments and movements dominate – including climate policy. The traditionally left-liberal climate movement struggles to find arguments and strategies to implement climate policy even under these conditions and with these forces. Keywords: expansion of renewables as independence, new jobs in the green industry, local decision-making on energy policy.
Atomkraft
Climate policy
COP29
USA
Outlook: These events will be important in 2025
Like in 2017, Donald Trump will be sworn in as US President on January 20, 2025. His decisions will be important for US and international climate policy.
Various dates are upcoming both internationally and in Germany that will influence climate policy this year. We have summarized the key ones for you. Internationally important:
January 20: Donald Trump will officially be inaugurated as US President. His presidency will most likely be a setback for climate action, but he probably won’t be able to undo all progress made in recent years.
January 20-24: The annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) is held in Davos. This year’s motto is “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age.” The core topics are “Rebuilding Trust,” “Rethinking Growth,” and “Investing in People.” Climate finance and global financial architecture also traditionally play a role there.
February 10: This is the deadline for submitting new national climate targets under the UNFCCC (NDCs). How ambitious the climate targets are, especially those of key countries, greatly impacts global progress in reducing emissions.
February 24-28: The IPCC will meet in a plenary session in Hangzhou, China. The key decision on the timetable for the next Assessment Report AR7 will be made at this meeting.
February 25 to 27: The United Nations will meet again in Rome as it could not negotiate a final declaration at last year’s COP16 biodiversity conference in Colombia. There are numerous overlaps between global climate and species conservation – not least the fact that there is a chronic lack of funding for both.
March 11-14: The Sustainable Energy for All Global Forum will be held in Bridgetown, Barbados. Building on Prime Minister Mia Mottley’s Bridgetown Initiative, the aim is to discuss how enough money can be mobilized for the energy transition, particularly in developing countries and island states.
April 21-26: The traditional spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank will take place in Washington. The annual meeting is then held from October 13 to 18, also in Washington. The results of the two meetings are crucial for reforms to the international (climate) finance architecture.
May: Australia votes, but the exact date has not yet been set. Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, wants to turn the election into a referendum on the future of nuclear power in the country. His government had recently focused on more climate action and a stronger expansion of renewables. The Australian opposition, on the other hand, proposed in December to replace coal in the country with nuclear power rather than renewables.
June: The G7 summit will be held in Kananaskis, Canada. The informal forum of seven of the biggest developed countries will discuss global economic issues. The exact date has not yet been set.
June 16-26: The interim conference of the Climate COP SB62 (UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Implementation, SBI and Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, SBSTA) will take place in Bonn. It prepares decisions and work steps for the COP30 in Brazil.
September: The United Nations will meet in New York for the 80th General Assembly (UNGA). From September 9-23, there will be various program items, including a Sustainability Week Summit and high-level meetings.
November 27-28: The G20 summit is expected to take place in Johannesburg, South Africa. South Africa took over the G20 presidency at the beginning of December and focuses on mobilizing resources for the just energy transition. Prior to this, the G20 Climate & Environment Ministerial is scheduled to take place on October 9.
November 10-21: The COP30 World Climate Conference will convene in Belém, Brazil. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva intends to present Brazil as a climate pioneer. Although deforestation in the Amazon has recently decreased, there is repeated criticism of new oil drilling. There are also doubts as to whether the infrastructure in Belém can accommodate a climate conference of this size.
November 20: Canada votes. The country has had great difficulty achieving its climate targets in the past. Although the current liberal government has introduced some climate change measures in the past year, current polls suggest that the liberals will lose to the conservatives. Canada’s conservatives have strongly criticized climate action measures such as the emissions cap for the oil and gas sector in the past.
December 12: The Paris Climate Agreement celebrates its 10th anniversary.
Important events in the EU
Climate policy in the EU will be influenced by the following dates and topics in the coming year, including:
January 1: Poland takes over the EU Council Presidency. The presidency will focus on security and defense. Poland also elects a new president in May. Denmark then takes over in July for the rest of the year.
Spring: The EU Commission plans to present its Clean Industrial Deal, the Green Deal 2.0, in the first 100 days of its term of office. The plan for achieving net zero emissions by 2050 and competitive growth in the European economy should therefore be presented by the beginning of March at the latest.
Spring: According to the official timetable, the revision of the EU Climate Law, including a 90 percent greenhouse gas reduction by 2040, is also scheduled for spring.
May: The presidential election is coming up in Poland. After the parliamentary elections in 2024, the political future of the country is once again decided: Will the right-wing nationalist PiS or Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition continue to appoint the president? A climate election campaign, on the other hand, is not expected.
October: The Czech Republic elects a new parliament. The exact date is not yet known.
Key dates in Germany
Germany will also set a decisive course at the national level in the coming year:
February 14: The climate movement around Fridays for Future will mobilize for the next climate strike. The climate movement is currently debating how it can reposition itself. For example, the Last Generation recently announced its intention to change its name.
February 14-16: The Munich Security Conference will be held. The intersections between climate and security play a growing role both in international conflicts and at the conference.
February 23: Germany will elect a new parliament. The outcome of the parliamentary elections and the subsequent formation of a coalition will play a pivotal role in shaping climate policy in the coming years.
March 2: Hamburg will elect a new parliament. It is the only state election in Germany this year.
End of spring: The Petersberg Climate Dialogue will take place in Berlin at this time. The event, hosted by the Federal Foreign Office, also serves as preparation for the COP. The exact date is not yet known.
Klima & Umwelt
Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz
UNFCCC
EU climate target 2040: Why little progress can be expected under Poland’s Council Presidency
Commission President von der Leyen with Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk: The presidential election in Poland is also shaping the Council Presidency.
The EU is unlikely to take a leading role in international efforts to improve climate action in the new year either. The unambitious Hungarian Council Presidency will be followed by the Polish Presidency. The national situation in Poland threatens to delay important milestones in European climate policy such as the EU’s 2040 climate target – possibly even into the second half of the year.
At the EU Environment Council in mid-December, the EU environment ministers once again discussed how much Europe wants to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 2040. No agreement was reached on the 2040 climate target, although the Commission had already tabled the offer of 90% fewer greenhouse gases than in 1990 in February 2024.
The EU is also likely to miss the international deadline for the next climate target (NDC) for 2035, which it has to submit to the UN by the end of February. The Commission makes no secret of this, but without an agreement between the countries, its hands are tied.
The European NDC for 2035 depends on the EU’s 2040 climate target. A line will be drawn between the targets for 2030 (55% GHG reduction) and 2040, and the 2035 target will be read off from this, as announced by EU Climate Action Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra at COP29 in Baku. If the EU states agree on a 90 percent GHG reduction by 2040, the NDC for 2035 would be 72.5 percent.
‘Putting pressure on China’
It would be an ambitious goal. The only question is whether and, above all, when it will come. “A clear and early signal from the EU regarding climate targets for the period after 2030 would put pressure on other governments, including China, to speed up the transition and give investors certainty,” says Marc Weissgerber, Managing Director of the Berlin office of the think tank E3G.
Europe is lagging behind in the G20 timetable. Brazil, the UK, Canada and even the USA have already announced their NDC for 2035. According to observers, even China is ready to present its NDC but wants to link it to the announcement of the European target. The lack of agreement between the EU states on the 2040 target therefore also has an impact on China, which is highly relevant in terms of climate policy.
The most important key figures of the previous NDCs for 2035 at a glance:
Brazil: Net GHG reduction of 59 to 67 percent compared to 2005
Canada: GHG reduction of 45 to 50 percent compared to 2005
USA: Net GHG reduction of 61 to 66 percent compared to 2005
United Arab Emirates: GHG reduction of 47 percent compared to 2019
Great Britain: GHG reduction of 81 percent compared to 1990
Another ‘exchange of ideas’ in Brussels
There was only an exchange of ideas at the EU Environment Council in December. The Hungarian Council Presidency wanted to know from the member states how climate legislation could be simplified in order to place less of a burden on companies and what basic prerequisites (“enabling conditions”) need to be created for the new climate target. Almost the same debate had already been held under Belgian Council leadership six months ago, but not much has happened since then.
No agreement was even sought at the Council meetings of ministers or at the summits of heads of state and government. Even at the end of June, when the heads of state adopted the so-called Strategic Agenda up to 2029, climate policy was only dealt with in passing. At the EU summit in December, the topic was left out despite pressure from civil society to agree on future climate targets.
Agreement not until the second half of 2025?
“The EU is now running out of time,” says Weissgerber. Weissgerber fears that the elections in Germany, Poland and Romania could probably postpone an agreement on the path to climate neutrality until the second half of 2025 or later. He sees it as a “missed opportunity” to make a clear commitment to climate policy leadership after the elections in the USA and COP29.
Germany is also failing to live up to its claim to be the EU’s climate policy leader, despite paying lip service to the idea. This is not only due to the former FDP participation in the government, which put the brakes on climate policy, as the German government has still not taken a clear position.
Berlin is simply not in a hurry, observers report. The European election campaign, the reorganization of the EU executive, and the Hungarian Council Presidency are slowing things down. The calculation is that an agreement will be reached in the new year. Although the EU will miss the UN deadline, the NDC will be ambitious. This has long been on the back burner, as the next Polish Council Presidency is itself highly skeptical of a 90 percent target for 2040.
No climate election campaign in Poland
The country would have to take the lead in negotiating the goal as chair of the member states, but at the same time has completely different problems. An extremely important presidential election is due to take place in Poland in May. The outcome will decide whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s citizens’ coalition will have more room for maneuver or whether it will have to continue to deal with a president from the right-wing nationalist PiS party.
There will certainly not be a climate election campaign, as Tusk’s camp is also questioning new climate action targets and fears additional social burdens in particular. In order not to make himself vulnerable to the PiS, the issue is therefore unlikely to play a role even among pro-Europeans.
It is therefore questionable whether it will even be possible to reach an agreement on the EU’s 2040 climate target in the first half of 2025. Even supporters of an ambitious EU climate policy agree that an election victory for pro-European forces in Poland is more important than an agreement on a 90% reduction in greenhouse gases by February.
EU-Klimaziel 2040
News
Heat pump subsidy in Germany: huge surge before Christmas
Uncertainty about the future of state subsidies for eco-friendly heating systems led to a sharp increase in applications submitted to the KfW at the end of the year. This is shown by figures provided by the responsible Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (BMWK) on request. In the week before Christmas (December 16 to 22), 16,821 main applications and 3,358 additional applications for further residential units were received; this is more than twice as many per week as in the previous three weeks and around four times as many as the weekly figures in October.
The background is likely the CDU/CSU’s announcement that funding would be severely cut in the event of an election victory. There have also been concerns that no new funding commitments could be made in January due to insufficient budgets; however, the BMWK has repeatedly rejected these as unfounded. The KfW figures mentioned refer to all eco-friendly heating systems; a breakdown of the individual technologies is not yet available. In the past, around 80 percent of applications concerned heat pumps. If the figures remain as high as in December, the German government’s target of 500,000 new heat pumps per year would be within reach. In 2024, the figure was only around 200,000. mkr
Heat turnaround
Wärmewende
2024: These were the ten most expensive extreme weather events
Three of the ten costliest extreme weather events worldwide in 2024 affected Europe – first and foremost storm Boris in September over Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria and Romania, which claimed 26 lives and caused damage worth 5 billion US dollars. The floods in southern Germany in early June also caused damages totaling 4.45 billion US dollars. However, the estimates of the British aid organization Christian Aid usually only reflect insured damage. This means that the true costs of individual extreme weather events are generally even higher, while personal losses remain uncounted.
The USA is repeatedly at the top of the list of climate disasters, in terms of material damage in US dollars:
At least 60 billion, 88 deaths: Storms excluding hurricanes (USA) over the full year 2024.
Damage and casualty figures in poorer countries often underrepresented
Climate change has exacerbated many of these extreme weather events. For example, an analysis of past events by Carbon Brief shows that 74 percent of them would have been less severe without global warming. “Disasters are being supercharged by decisions to keep burning fossil fuels,” criticizes Patrick Watt, CEO of Christian Aid. His organization also lists ten other climate disasters in 2024 that occurred more slowly but were similarly deadly – mainly in poorer countries, where fewer data is available, and records of economic damage are sometimes unavailable.
These include events that are particularly dangerous due to the interplay of several factors (compound events):
Landslide in the Philippines: 22 people died and 400,000 people were displaced. The monsoon and two tropical cyclones were the triggers.
Drought in southern Africa: Between February and July, a drought in South Africa caused damage of 228 million US dollars in Zambia alone. According to Christian Aid, however, the damage is likely significantly higher. Nine million people were affected in total, mainly due to crop failures and diseases such as cholera, which killed 700 people.
Heatwave over Gaza: In April, Gaza was hit by a heatwave of over 40°C. Climate change made it five times more likely and affected 1.7 million displaced people. Due to the war, they live in makeshift tents, some of which heat up more than outdoors. Many also lack safe access to water and healthcare. lb
Extreme weather
Hochwasser
NGO
World Weather Attribution
At the start of the year: What the increased CO2 price means
Fuel and heating with fossil fuels could become more expensive from the start of the year. The reason: On January 1, 2025, the CO2 price increased from 45 to 55 euros per ton. According to the German automobile club ADAC and the trade association Fuels and Energy (en2x), gasoline could then become 3 cents more expensive per liter, diesel and heating oil a little more than 3 cents.
In addition, the so-called greenhouse gas reduction quota will increase at the turn of the year, according to en2x. To achieve this, fuel suppliers will have to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions in transport, for example by increasing the proportion of renewable fuels. “The extent to which these changes will be reflected in consumer prices at gas stations and in the heating oil trade depends largely on the development of world market prices for mineral oil products.”
According to ADAC, the increase in the CO2 levy “might not be very noticeable” if, for example, crude oil becomes cheaper. The levy is only one component that makes up fuel prices. Fuel prices have fallen since spring.
Natural gas: A single-family home pays 43 euros more for heating
According to comparison portal Verivox, people who heat with gas pay around 0.22 cents more per kilowatt-hour due to the higher CO2 price. Extrapolated to the heating requirements of a single-family home with a consumption of 20,000 kilowatt-hours of natural gas, this is around 43 euros more per year.
Oliver Klapschus, Managing Director of the HeizOel24 portal, said that crude oil prices are expected to remain constant or fall slightly in 2025. Without any major geopolitical crises or disasters, there is currently no reason for heating oil prices to fluctuate up or down by more than 10 cents. The increase in CO2 pricing only plays a lesser role in the price forecast. The surcharge is within the range of a normal weekly fluctuation in heating oil prices, he said. dpa/lb
Energie
ETS
Transit contract ends: Russia stops gas exports through Ukraine
Russia stopped gas exports to Europe through Ukraine on Wednesday morning. The transit contract between Gazprom and the Ukrainian supplier Naftogaz had expired at the turn of the year at Kyiv’s instigation. Transit through Ukraine had recently accounted for around five percent of natural gas imports to Europe.
Most EU countries abandoned Russian gas after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and Moldova, in particular, had been receiving gas via the Ukrainian pipelines until recently and now have to find alternatives.
Slovakia’s largest gas importer SPP announced that it would supply all customers via alternative routes, mainly via pipelines from Germany and Hungary. However, this would incur additional costs for transit fees.
Austria considers itself prepared
Thanks to well-stocked gas storage facilities and alternative import routes via Italy and Germany, Austria considers itself well-prepared for the supply stop. According to Austrian Energy Minister Leonore Gewessler on X, gas supplies are secure and the country no longer depends on Russia.
The EU Commission had already stated on Tuesday that it did not expect any supply disruptions. “The European gas infrastructure is flexible enough to provide gas of non-Russian origin to Central and Eastern Europe via alternative routes,” said the agency. After the attack on Ukraine, considerable new LNG import capacities have been built up since 2022.
The German Economy Ministry also believes that the EU is well-prepared. A spokesperson said that Germany’s supply is just as guaranteed as that of neighboring countries without coastal access. The capacities of the German LNG terminals are also available to companies from other EU member states.
Fico threatens Ukraine
Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, on the other hand, had warned Ukraine against discontinuing the transit agreement. The pro-Moscow politicianthreatened to cut electricity supplies to the neighboring country. He had visited President Vladimir Putin in Moscow shortly before Christmas to discuss gas transit.
Fico criticized that his country would miss out on hundreds of millions of euros in transit revenue for the continued gas transit to the West. He added that the higher fees for alternative routes would also lead to increased gas and electricity prices in Europe.
Ukraine has been saying for months that it would not renew its contract with Russia. A stop is in the national interest, explained Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko: “We have stopped the transit of Russian gas, this is a historic event.”
Kyiv argues that this would deprive the Kremlin of revenue from gas exports. According to think tank Bruegel, Russia would lose 6.5 billion dollars if it were unable to reroute gas supplies. However, Ukraine would also lose around one billion dollars annually in gross transit fees. rtr/tho
Gasspeicher
Must-Reads
Deutsche Welle: Philippines leads the movement for climate justice. As one of the countries most affected by climate change, the Philippines is at the forefront of the climate justice movement and will host the loss and damage fund board. The fund, which was officially launched at COP28, is designed to compensate developing countries for climate-related loss and damage, with the Philippines calling for rapid operationalization and distribution of funds. The funding gap remains a major challenge. Read the article
CNN: How Saudi Arabia blocks global climate progress. The oil-rich kingdom has systematically obstructed UN negotiations on climate change, biodiversity and pollution. It employs various tactics to delay climate action, as its economy relies heavily on fossil fuels. Despite its own climate targets, such as Vision 2030, experts describe Saudi Arabia as a “climate destroyer,” while the country itself highlights its pragmatic approaches. Read the article
Financial Times: Climate change changes the European wine landscape. Wine-growing regions are shifting to colder northern areas such as Denmark, England and Scandinavia. Traditional regions in Southern Europe struggle with challenges such as earlier harvests, higher alcohol content and increasing drought. Winemakers adapt by growing at higher altitudes, introducing heat-resistant and new grape varieties and using irrigation and hybrid vines. These changes challenge traditional concepts of “terroir and appellation” and require a balance between innovation and tradition in the European wine industry. To the article
Reuters: New York asks fossil fuel companies to pay up. New York has passed a bill that will charge fossil fuel companies a total of 75 billion US dollars for climate damage over the next 25 years. The money is to be used to adapt infrastructure to climate change, with companies charged based on their greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2018. New York is the second US state after Vermont to introduce such a law. Read the article
