Table.Briefing: Climate (English)

Climate check: Thuringia risks its achievements + UN: Rising seas threaten entire countries + EU: fewer emissions, criticism remains

Dear reader,

The old slogan “Elections change nothing” has always been wrong. It becomes even more absurd when we take a look at Thuringia through the climate lens, as we are doing today: After all, the federal state in the heart of Germany has been leading the country in cutting emissions and expanding renewables – but should the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) take over after next Sunday’s election, that will probably be the end of it. And the Christian Democrats have also slowed down climate policy to such an extent that this election in Thuringia could change a lot – and not just the societal climate.

On the other hand, people elsewhere have little choice: We report on new alarming data showing how rising sea levels will wipe island states in the Pacific off the map unless far less carbon emissions are released into the atmosphere soon. And how scientists advise abandoning coastal regions all over the world in case of doubt. There is also new bad news about how the climate crisis spoils harvests in Germany. And what tricks environmental organizations are using to take the EU to court over its climate targets.

It’s not always a pleasant thing to read, but it’s important and intriguing. We’ll stay tuned for you.

Your
Bernhard Pötter
Image of Bernhard  Pötter

Feature

Thuringia’s climate check: How Germany’s pioneer jeopardizes its successes

Highly controversial in Thuringia: Wind power in the forest.

Thuringia has made considerable progress in climate action and could become one of Germany’s first net-zero federal states – but only if it maintains its pioneering position. So far, the state has reduced more carbon emissions than any other federal state, has a high share of renewables in its electricity mix, few carbon-intensive power plants, hardly any heavy industry and vast natural areas. However, this path could be jeopardized next weekend if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) or the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) win the elections. Both parties have so far shown little interest in a consistent climate policy in Thuringia.

Thuringia is a nationwide leader in reducing emissions: According to the Ministry of the Environment, energy-related emissions have declined by 63 percent between 1990 and 2023. By 2020, the state had already met the EU requirements (minus 55 percent) for 2030 and is close to the German target for 2030 (minus 65 percent). This drastic reduction was achieved by

  • the closure of energy-inefficient companies dating back to former East Germany, for example in the glass and automotive industries,
  • turning away from lignite for heating buildings,
  • a strong expansion of renewables,
  • and because Thuringia imports around half of its electricity from other federal states.

CO2 reduction after reunification and beyond

Unlike lignite states such as Saxony or Brandenburg, over three-quarters of the approximately 12.5 million tons of CO2 emissions in Thuringia (as of 2020) do not come from electricity generation, but from transport, households, industry and agriculture. Following a sharp decline in the early 1990s, emissions have declined, albeit to a lesser extent – unlike in Saxony and Brandenburg, for example, where emissions have practically not fallen for 20 years.

However, Thuringia’s forest ecosystem (around half of the state’s area is forest) also shows signs of concern. It changes from a safe “sink” that stores CO2 to an emitter; according to the Ministry of the Environment, the balance is approximately even. There is also no foreseeable solution for transport in Thuringia, which is the only sector with emissions above the 1990 figures, apart from EV subsidies.

Lots of renewables and pumped storage, conversion ‘realistic’

Thuringia is also one of the leaders in Germany when it comes to the share of renewables: Almost 62 percent of electricity generated in the state came from wind, solar, biomass and hydropower in 2020. Thuringia has the advantage of being home to a third of Germany’s pumped storage capacity. A Nordhausen University of Applied Sciences report in 2021 confirmed that the energy system transformation is feasible and that “a climate-neutral Thuringia is realistic and affordable.” However, this would require:

  • Annual investment of two billion euros, not including income from new jobs and higher tax revenues,
  • reliable expansion targets for renewables and a tripling of wind/solar capacities,
  • the expansion of power-to-heat and heat storage systems,
  • a conversion of biogas utilization of exclusively heat and electricity to bio-methane,
  • the full use of efficiency potential
  • and reliable CO2 reduction targets.

Red-red-green: some achievements, unresolved issues

The coalition government of the Social Democratic Party, Greens and the Left Party emphasizes that it has set many things in motion. For example, it has anchored renewable energy expansion and carbon reduction targets in the Climate Act and the EIKS energy strategy. However, only 0.6 percent of the required 1.8 percent of the state’s area for wind energy by 2027 has been achieved. Municipalities receive money per capita from the “Climate Pact” for investments in climate action. Green Environment Minister Bernhard Stengele told Table.Briefings: “Climate action and economic strength go hand in hand if we get it right. We have already achieved a lot in the last ten years,” for example, in the expansion of solar energy, the promotion of community energy and the financing of local authorities. “If we don’t continue like this, if we fall behind on climate action, it will be to the detriment of everyone.”

However, much work remains: The Climate Act and strategy have yet to be monitored. The Climate Act must also be adapted to the federal target of achieving net zero emissions by 2045 (previously “in the second half of the 21st century”). And a report by management consultants prognos and the Leipzig Institute for Energy providing a detailed path calculation for zero emissions in all sectors will only be published this fall after the election. This leaves important decisions on further developments in the hands of the next parliament and the next government in Erfurt.

Climate Council: Next legislature is crucial

An “Appeal by the Thuringian Climate Council” for the upcoming state elections emphasizes the state’s chances of achieving net-zero development. In it, the state government’s panel of experts stresses that Thuringia is one of the “regions most affected by climate change in Germany” with a warming of 1.7 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. They warn that heat, heavy rain, floods and forest fires jeopardize people’s lives, the economy and harvests. While the state is innovative and, along with Saxony, has the best potential in Germany for the utilization of solar energy, it needs to invest more in the expansion of renewables, efficiency and adaptation to climate change, they say.

Thuringia could make an “important contribution to climate action without compromising living standards,” the experts, led by Jena hydrologist Kai Uwe Totsche, explained. “The upcoming legislative period is crucial for climate action,” the statement on the state election continues. “Inform yourself about the parties’ strategies and plans and consider the urgency of climate action and adaptation when casting your vote.”

AfD and CDU have hindered climate action

However, it is precisely the strategies and plans of the political parties that cast doubt on an ambitious course towards net zero. After all, the AfD and the CDU, which are leading in the polls, have so far tended to slow down climate action in Thuringia. The AfD denies the causes of man-made climate change and fundamentally criticizes climate action. In Thuringia, it calls for halting wind power expansion, no new power lines or efficiency targets, it wants Russian gas and a return to nuclear power – which is out of Thuringia’s power as it is only a federal state.

Although the CDU in Thuringia supports the expansion of renewables, it refers to “technology-open solutions” and opposes “excessive utopian demands in climate policy.” As recently as the end of 2023, it voted together with the AfD in favor of a motion by the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the Thuringian state parliament that practically banned the development of wind energy in forests – and pushed it through against the votes of the minority governing coalition. This makes the goal of tripling wind capacity in the state, as required for achieving net-zero emissions, very doubtful.

  • Klimapolitik
Translation missing.

UN: How rising sea levels threaten the existence of countries

Viele Pazifik-Staaten sind durch den Meeresspiegel in ihrer Existenz bedroht. Die Hauptinsel von Tuvalu nach einer Überflutung.
Rising sea levels threaten the existence of many Pacific states. Here, the main island of Tuvalu after a flood.

A new UN study warns of rapidly rising sea levels. It reports that small island states, particularly in the Pacific, are at serious risk of sinking as sea levels in these regions are rising much faster than globally. The damage and risks for people, infrastructure and the economy are increasing and food security is jeopardized. And water levels and losses will continue to rise.

Since the early 2000s, the seas have risen faster than at any point in the last 3,000 years. The causes are believed to be melting land ice, increasing temperatures and the expansion of seawater. The UN warns that the rise is continuing to accelerate, threatening hundreds of millions of people. Rising sea levels are already causing billions in economic damage every year. If the climate crisis cannot be stopped, millions of people could become climate refugees in just a few decades.

At first glance, it may only be a few millimeters, but it will severely affect humanity. Compared to the turn of the century (1993 to 2002), sea level rise has more than doubled in the last ten years – from 0.21 to 0.48 centimeters per year. The main cause of this is man-made climate change and the burning of fossil fuels, which have historically been responsible for 69 percent of CO2 emissions and, in recent years (2013 to 2022), for almost 90 percent.

Billions in damage, salinization of drinking water, climate refugees

Many small island nations could soon sink or become uninhabitable. In large parts of the western tropical Pacific, sea levels have risen 10 to 15 centimeters in the last 30 years, almost twice as fast as the global average, according to a new report on the southwest Pacific by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The report found that some islands were affected by coastal flooding ten times more frequently than in 1980. The sea is also warming much faster than the global average in large parts of the region. Storms are becoming increasingly violent. In 2023, the Southwest Pacific experienced a total of 34 “hydrometeorological hazard events,” meaning extreme storms, floods and droughts that affected more than 25 million people and caused 4.4 billion US dollars in economic damage.

The economic consequences are grave:

  • According to Rosanne Martyr of Climate Analytics, “some Pacific Island nations including Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and Micronesia lost more than 1 percent of their GDP to rising seas.”
  • Floods and coastal inundation result in annual damage to buildings, infrastructure and agriculture of over 1.6 billion US dollars in Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
  • 90 percent of the population on Pacific islands live only five kilometers or less from the coast. Half of the entire infrastructure is located within 500 meters of coasts.
  • Ingressing seawater causes drinking water to become salinated and damages agriculture. The rise in sea temperatures often has a negative impact on fish stocks and income opportunities.

According to the scientists at Climate Analytics, if current climate policy is maintained, global warming could reach 2.7 degrees by 2050 and sea levels could rise by 56 centimeters by 2100 compared to 2020. By comparison, most Pacific islands are, on average, only one to two meters above sea level. If warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees and net-zero emissions are achieved by 2050, the sea will rise by 38 centimeters by 2100.

The WMO concludes: “Climate change threatens the future of Pacific islands.” This is why Tuvalu has already signed a resettlement agreement with Australia. Every year, 280 of Tuvalu’s 11,000 inhabitants can relocate to the neighboring country. Other countries in the region have association agreements with the USA (Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Palau) and New Zealand (Cook Islands, Niu,e), allowing their citizens to settle there. Australia and New Zealand have also launched an immigration lottery where visas can be won, as reported by Le Monde Diplomatique. However, not all island populations have such emigration options.

Rising sea levels are irreversible

The UN predicts that storm surges and flooding will continue to worsen in the future. Seaports are also threatened by rising sea levels, which could impact global trade. Large coastal cities on all continents are also at risk.

The UN warns that sea level rise is irreversible:

  • Even after achieving net-zero emissions, sea levels will continue to rise as land ice will continue to melt due to global warming. According to the UN, sea levels will “continue to rise for centuries or millennia into the future.”
  • Climate scientists predict that historical emissions alone will lead to a rise in sea level of 0.7 to 1.1 meters by the year 2300.
  • With long-term global warming of two degrees, the sea level would rise by twelve to 20 meters over the next few centuries.

Guterres and island nations call for fossil fuel exit

During a visit to Tonga on Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on wealthy countries to drastically cut carbon emissions and quickly phase out fossil fuels. In its study, the UN calls on countries to

  • Align the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which must be submitted to the UN at the beginning of 2025, with the 1.5 degree target.
  • Adopt an ambitious new climate finance target (NCQG) at COP29 in Baku and “mobilize the necessary trillions of US dollars.”
  • Stop opening new coal mines and phasing out coal by 2040, and reduce the use of oil and gas by 30 percent by 2030.

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) had already called for “trillions of US dollars” for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) at the COP interim conference in Bonn. Moreover, they demanded improved access to international climate finance for small states. “The institutions that channel this money to us are not built with the context-specific aspects of SIDS and LDCs in mind – they are built for bigger countries because they want bigger impact,” complained Michai Robertson, Senior Advisor to AOSIS. The group of countries demands ending funding for fossil fuel projects.

  • COP29
  • Hochwasser
Translation missing.

Events

Aug. 30, 11 a.m. CEST, Online
Webinar Carbon Brief’s webinar live from the Arctic
Carbon Brief’s associate editor Daisy Dunne is traveling to the UK’s Arctic research station in Ny-Ålesund on the Norwegian island of Svalbard in the Arctic Ocean. They will also be answering questions on everything from Arctic climate science to what life is like for researchers living and working in Svalbard. Info

Sept. 1
State elections in Thuringia and Saxony
The German states of Saxony and Thuringia will elect a new state parliament. Forming a government could be difficult in both federal states and the upcoming state governments could have a significant influence on the implementation of climate policy.

Sept. 1-8, Berlin
Summer Academy Climate journalism and the energy transition
Hosted in Berlin, the heart of expertise in climate and energy, this immersive experience offers a unique opportunity for journalists to delve into the crucial aspects of climate communication, science-based reporting and cross-border cooperation. Info

Sept. 5, 9 a.m. CEST, Online
Webinar E-methane: a new gas for a net-zero future?
In this webinar, the International Energy Agency (IEA) discusses the role that e-methane can play in decarbonization. Info

Sept 5, 12 p.m. CEST, Online
Webinar Climate Investing in Times of Net Zero Commitments: Is Regulation Driving Towards the Right Path?
During this webinar, expert speakers will delve into these critical topics, focusing on the role of regulation in guiding financial industries’ investments in climate initiatives, and explore how the financial industry can drive the transition towards a sustainable, net-zero future. Info

Sept. 5-6, Rio de Janeiro
Conference Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
The UNFCCC conference brings together state and non-state actors to discuss synergies between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement. Info

News

Climate in Numbers: EU emissions fall by four percent

In the first three months of 2024, greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union fell by a total of four percent compared to the same period last year. According to figures from the EU statistics office Eurostat, the member states emitted 894 million tons of CO2 equivalents (CO2 eq) in the first quarter of the year – compared to 931 CO2 eq from January to March 2023.

Twenty EU countries reported a reduction in greenhouse gases – the largest reductions came from Bulgaria (-15.2 percent), Germany (-6.7 percent), and Belgium (-6.0 percent). Malta (8.8), Lithuania (7.4), and Latvia (5.7) reported the largest increases in GHG emissions.

Eight countries with a GHG reduction in the first quarter of the year also recorded a concurrent decline in GDP (Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and the Czech Republic). 12 countries show a decrease in emissions with simultaneous GDP growth (Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Sweden and Croatia). Overall, EU-wide GDP increased by 0.3 percent. luk

  • Treibhausgase

Effort Sharing: NGOs sue EU Commission

Environmental activists have sued the European Commission over its emissions regulations for the year 2030 before the European Court of Justice. They seek a ruling from the EU’s second-highest court that would compel the Commission to strengthen its climate ambitions, according to statements from the NGOs Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe) and Global Legal Action Network (GLAN) on Tuesday.

The lawsuit concerns the national greenhouse gas reduction targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) – also known as burden sharing. It covers the sectors of transportation, agriculture, buildings, waste, and parts of industry that are not included in the European emissions trading system, setting national reduction targets up to the year 2030.

NGOs see Paris climate goals at risk

The NGOs argue that the limits are insufficient to reduce Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to meet the Paris climate goals. The EU’s targets are not science-based, said a lawyer representing the NGOs. Wealthy nations and major historical polluters like the EU should take faster action, the organizations demand.

According to a letter from the court to the plaintiffs’ lawyers, obtained by Reuters, the court has prioritized the case. This could mean that it will be heard in 2025. The lawsuit was originally filed in February but was not made public at the time. In a written defense submitted to the court in July, which was seen by Reuters, the Commission requested the court to dismiss the case as inadmissible. The court did not comply with that request.

  • Climate & Environment
  • Climate complaints
  • Climate targets
  • Emissionshandel
  • EU-Kommission
  • Klima & Umwelt
  • Klimaklagen
  • Klimaziele

Renewable energies: China reaches expansion target six years ahead of schedule

China has reached its renewables expansion target almost six years ahead of schedule. According to Bloomberg, citing the National Energy Administration, the country installed 25 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar energy in July, bringing China’s total renewable energy capacity to 1,206 gigawatts. In late 2020, President Xi Jinping announced the goal of generating at least 1,200 gigawatts from clean energy sources by 2030.

Due to the record installation of wind and solar power plants in 2023, China’s electricity generation from renewables increased by 25 percent in the first quarter of 2024 year-on-year. In contrast, the consumption of coal-fired electricity has fallen. Nevertheless, according to Bloomberg, solar and wind energy have only generated around 14 percent of the electricity consumed so far this year. This means that the utilization rate must increase significantly. China is working on a new climate plan (Nationally Determined Contributions), which it must submit to the United Nations by February 2025. However, experts believe that this will not be enough to bring the country onto the 1.5-degree path.

China needs much more solar and wind

Moreover, experts consider Xi’s renewables expansion target of 1,200 gigawatts to be too low to achieve the target of supplying a quarter of the energy mix (not electricity generation) from non-fossil sources by 2030. For example, Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) on X believes that China is “badly behind on the much more important carbon intensity target.” He said that significantly more solar and wind power would be needed, as hydropower and nuclear power could not be significantly expanded beyond existing plans by 2030. Myllyvirta also praised “the impressive acceleration in solar power deployment in 2023.”

Meanwhile, the People’s Bank and seven ministries issued new guidelines on Tuesday that provide companies in the Yangtze region with new incentives to raise more capital through green bonds and shares. According to the South China Morning Post, this is intended to accelerate the transformation of the region’s economy. Details are not yet known. The Yangtze River Economic Belt comprises eleven provinces, including the autonomous cities of Shanghai and Chongqing, representing 44 percent of China’s economic output. ck

  • Climate protection
  • Energy transition
  • Erneuerbare Energien
  • Solar

Coastal adaptation: Meta-study reveals adaptation gaps for 199 cities

Most measures taken by coastal cities to adapt to climate change are “rather slow, of narrow scope and not transformative.” This is revealed by a meta-study under the direction of Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU), published on Monday in “Nature Cities.” The study analyzed results from over 199 cities in 54 countries. Specifically, it examines how climate risks – such as rising sea levels, storms, flooding or heat – affect the population, infrastructure and ecosystems and how vulnerable they are.

Moreover, the study’s authors note that already implemented measures show little evidence of a sustainable reduction in risks, independent of the population size or income level of the cities examined.
Matthias Garschagen, geographer at LMU and one of the authors, criticizes: “Cities often try to optimize disaster management for future risks based on experience without fundamentally questioning whether these approaches will still be viable in the future.” This is why Garschagen recommends better scenarios and modeling methods. Another important question is, “When does abandoning coastal adaptation measures and considering resettlement instead make more sense.”

Resettlement measures are currently underway in Indonesia, for example. There, the sinking capital Jakarta is being replaced by Nusantara – a new city with a population of millions located on the island of Borneo, whose construction has been repeatedly criticized by NGOs due to severe deforestation. Pacific island states such as Tuvalu, Palau, and the Cook Islands have also already negotiated resettlement agreements, for example, with Australia and the USA. lb

  • Klimaanpassung

Germany: How the climate crisis destroys domestic harvests

The climate crisis is making weather conditions more uncertain – in Germany, this jeopardizes “entire harvests depending on the region.” This is according to the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) on the occasion of the presentation of the preliminary official harvest report 2024. A wet autumn, a “record warm spring in 2024 with late frosts, flooding in many places and a wet summer with numerous severe storms” have reduced crop yields in Germany.

In figures:

  • According to the report, 34.5 million tons of grain were harvested, excluding grain maize – a decrease of 9.1 percent.
  • The grain cultivation area decreased by 5.7 percent to 5.27 million hectares due to heavy regional rainfall.
  • The rapeseed cultivation area decreased by 7.3 percent to 1.09 million hectares.
  • Preliminary figures show that 3.6 million tons of winter rapeseed were harvested – 14.3 percent less than in the previous year.
  • According to the BMEL, potato cultivation as well as fruit and wine growing also suffered “regionally significantly from the many capricious weather conditions.”

German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir stressed the need to adapt to climate change. Climate adaptation has “long been a reality” on many farms, he said. The BMEL referred to various instruments with which the German government supports climate adaptation and climate protection in agriculture – including the National Water Strategy, the promotion of plant breeding to develop more resilient varieties, various incentives for agroforestry systems, the Climate Action Program 2030, 2030 Organic Strategy, measures to reduce red tape and other instruments to strengthen the adaptability of farms. ae

  • Hochwasser
  • Klimaanpassung

Iron and steel industry: Green production planned

Newly announced production facilities for iron and steel, particularly in Europe, are increasingly geared towards climate-friendly processes. However, new CO2-intensive blast furnaces are being built in Asia, primarily in India. This is according to the study “Pedal to the Metal 2024” by the Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

The greatest progress has been made in the area of steel recycling: 93 percent of the new production capacities announced in the steel sector last year are electric arc furnaces, in which steel scrap is renewed. According to the authors, if developments proceed as announced, the target set by the International Energy Agency (IEA) will be within reach: The IEA states that 37 percent of global steel production in 2030 should be produced using these electricity-powered furnaces. However, the actual construction of these plants has not yet begun for the most part.

Direct reduction of iron ore (DRI) is also on the rise. Globally, 36 percent of the newly announced plants are based on DRI technology. These plants can potentially produce low-CO2 new steel, provided that “green” hydrogen is used to eliminate the oxygen atoms in the iron ore. According to GEM, the new steel plants currently planned in Europe are all DRI-based, but here too, many projects are not yet under construction.

However, the leading countries in terms of volume in the steel sector, China and India, are bucking the trend. China is planning to build new coal-based blast furnaces with a capacity of 128 million tons of iron per year (36 percent of new blast furnace projects worldwide). However, the planning and construction of new blast furnaces there is now proceeding more slowly than the decommissioning of older blast furnaces.

India, on the other hand, is planning a massive expansion: new blast furnace capacities amounting to 122 million tons of iron per year (34 percent global share) are planned using this emission-intensive technology. According to GEM, there is a risk of lock-in effects: Investments in new blast furnaces could make it politically and economically difficult to decarbonize the iron and steel industry. av

  • Decarbonization

Must-Reads

Euractiv: Friendship for the climate. For the EU and the US, carbon-neutral technologies such as wind turbines, solar cells and batteries are vital to security and prosperity. China’s growing dominance in this area and Russia’s suspension of gas supplies have reinforced this view. But tensions are also brewing between the transatlantic partners. The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which provides subsidies for the production of green energy technologies in the US, has been criticized by the European Commission as protectionist. Nevertheless, both economic powers are working to overcome their differences. To the article

Salon.com: Collapse of snow crab populations due to climate change. A few years ago, the crab populations crashed, with more than 90 percent disappearing, an estimated 47 billion animals vanishing. In 2022, crab fishing season was canceled. Scientists hypothesized at the time that climate change was the culprit; now a recent study in the journal Nature Climate Change has confirmed it. To the article

New York Times: Samoa in distress. The Samoa Islands in the Pacific, which belong to the USA, suffer massively from climate change. Rising sea levels have led to a shortage of fresh water. One hospital had to temporarily close down almost completely. A federal program is now set to help the affected islands, but there aren’t enough workers. To the article

Wall Street Journal: Startups improve power grids. Startups working to make power grids more effective are increasingly attracting venture capitalists. They have become more cautious about investing in climate technologies, but are getting involved in technologies that increase the efficiency and reliability of power grids. Read the article

Opinion

Electromobility: How transport can become greener – without affecting the budget

By Nikolas von Wysiecki
Nikolas von Wysiecki, deputy head of transport policy at environmental organization NABU.

The transition to battery-powered electromobility is the most important political measure for the climate problem of transport – especially because it can be implemented much faster than a broader mobility transition, which is also necessary. However, contrary to the global trend, Germany’s demand for electric cars is not growing as quickly as expected.

This creates problems for local manufacturers, who earn most of their money with large combustion engines. By 2025 at the latest, when new fleet limits come into force across the EU, they could face fines in the billions – unless they can significantly increase their EV sales. However, after the abrupt end of the purchase premium and in light of the current budget debate, the prospects for this currently seem poor.

Yet there is a completely budget-neutral way to give electromobility in Germany – and, in turn, climate action in the transport sector – a new boost: The update to the EU Renewable Energy Directive for transport (RED) must be transposed into national law by next spring. The lead Ministry of the Environment is currently working on a draft, which is expected to be presented in the coming weeks. This is an opportunity to promote both climate protection and e-mobility.

A quota system for the climate

However, the RED must be fundamentally reorganized in its German legal implementation to achieve this.

The RED specifies how much renewable energy must be used in transportation. In Germany, this has so far been regulated via the GHG quota system. Since 2015, it has obliged oil companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a certain amount. If oil companies do not meet the quota themselves, they can compensate for this by paying money to providers of more eco-friendly energy sources – for example, charging electricity providers, who generally use green electricity, or the biofuel industry. The costs are an incentive for green innovations. To this end, the GHG quota system provides a budget-neutral framework.

The birth defect: money for climate-damaging biofuel

That sounds good in theory, but a large proportion of the compensation payments end up going to suppliers of biofuels that are not green at all. Contrary to what is often claimed, more than half of these fuels still come directly from the farmland. Several studies confirm that, in many cases, they are even more harmful to the climate than fossil fuels. Because their official carbon footprint is incomplete, the quota system still classifies them as low-GHG.

The use of biogenic fuels from arable land could even increase in the future. A significant proportion of the limited land available in Germany is already being used for fuel production.

Meanwhile, there are many assurances that biofuels come largely from residues, so-called “advanced biofuels.” However, in 2022, almost half of them came from Asian palm oil mill residues, although the EU actually no longer wanted to promote palm oil (no data is yet available for 2023). On top of this, there is a scandalous fraud system in which oil from China is simply reclassified as waste.

Hardly any climate action improvements so far

This means the German GHG quota system does not live up to its political claim. The existing compliance options neither deliver proper climate action nor promote green innovations. Those bearing the brunt – apart from the climate – are the consumers who finance the system at the filling station.

In the current situation, it would be absolutely wrong to generally increase the mandatory share for renewables in transportation, as the automotive industry recently proposed. This would only support non-green biofuels with even more money.

Electromobility is the means of choice for climate action. To better promote it, RED must be consistently restructured in its German legal implementation. Fuels from farmland must be excluded from the GHG quota, and waste and residual materials must be strictly limited. This is legally possible. The emissions balance must finally be calculated in an honest manner. Imaginary reductions of 90 percent would then no longer be recognized.

Charging electricity must become the central commodity on the GHG quota market – for example, by giving it a higher weighting in the quota system or increasing the minimum purchase quantity. This is the only way to improve the charging station business model and make the GHG quota payment to EV owners more reliable. Both are important incentives for electromobility.

True transformation through RED is possible

The argument that all options are needed does not count here: The targets for renewables in transport can be met without fuels from farmland. Anyone who wants to use biofuels in their cars could still do so. However, given the limited budget available for climate action, why should this be subsidized by the state when electromobility for cars and trucks can be promoted instead?

Biofuel fraud must be consistently prevented. The latest example of fraud in upstream emission reductions shows how difficult it is to verify climate action using certificates. The controlling authorities must send a clear signal to the market: Fuel and GHG reduction volumes must no longer be recognized in Germany if there is no opportunity for on-site audits of the producing plants in other countries.

RED in transport enables climate action innovations and the promotion of electromobility without requiring additional money from the federal budget. Therefore, all federal ministries should have a common interest in making the RED a genuine transformation instrument.

Nikolas von Wysiecki is deputy head of transport policy at environmental organization NABU.

  • Flottengrenzwerte

Climate.Table editorial team

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    The old slogan “Elections change nothing” has always been wrong. It becomes even more absurd when we take a look at Thuringia through the climate lens, as we are doing today: After all, the federal state in the heart of Germany has been leading the country in cutting emissions and expanding renewables – but should the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) take over after next Sunday’s election, that will probably be the end of it. And the Christian Democrats have also slowed down climate policy to such an extent that this election in Thuringia could change a lot – and not just the societal climate.

    On the other hand, people elsewhere have little choice: We report on new alarming data showing how rising sea levels will wipe island states in the Pacific off the map unless far less carbon emissions are released into the atmosphere soon. And how scientists advise abandoning coastal regions all over the world in case of doubt. There is also new bad news about how the climate crisis spoils harvests in Germany. And what tricks environmental organizations are using to take the EU to court over its climate targets.

    It’s not always a pleasant thing to read, but it’s important and intriguing. We’ll stay tuned for you.

    Your
    Bernhard Pötter
    Image of Bernhard  Pötter

    Feature

    Thuringia’s climate check: How Germany’s pioneer jeopardizes its successes

    Highly controversial in Thuringia: Wind power in the forest.

    Thuringia has made considerable progress in climate action and could become one of Germany’s first net-zero federal states – but only if it maintains its pioneering position. So far, the state has reduced more carbon emissions than any other federal state, has a high share of renewables in its electricity mix, few carbon-intensive power plants, hardly any heavy industry and vast natural areas. However, this path could be jeopardized next weekend if the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) or the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) win the elections. Both parties have so far shown little interest in a consistent climate policy in Thuringia.

    Thuringia is a nationwide leader in reducing emissions: According to the Ministry of the Environment, energy-related emissions have declined by 63 percent between 1990 and 2023. By 2020, the state had already met the EU requirements (minus 55 percent) for 2030 and is close to the German target for 2030 (minus 65 percent). This drastic reduction was achieved by

    • the closure of energy-inefficient companies dating back to former East Germany, for example in the glass and automotive industries,
    • turning away from lignite for heating buildings,
    • a strong expansion of renewables,
    • and because Thuringia imports around half of its electricity from other federal states.

    CO2 reduction after reunification and beyond

    Unlike lignite states such as Saxony or Brandenburg, over three-quarters of the approximately 12.5 million tons of CO2 emissions in Thuringia (as of 2020) do not come from electricity generation, but from transport, households, industry and agriculture. Following a sharp decline in the early 1990s, emissions have declined, albeit to a lesser extent – unlike in Saxony and Brandenburg, for example, where emissions have practically not fallen for 20 years.

    However, Thuringia’s forest ecosystem (around half of the state’s area is forest) also shows signs of concern. It changes from a safe “sink” that stores CO2 to an emitter; according to the Ministry of the Environment, the balance is approximately even. There is also no foreseeable solution for transport in Thuringia, which is the only sector with emissions above the 1990 figures, apart from EV subsidies.

    Lots of renewables and pumped storage, conversion ‘realistic’

    Thuringia is also one of the leaders in Germany when it comes to the share of renewables: Almost 62 percent of electricity generated in the state came from wind, solar, biomass and hydropower in 2020. Thuringia has the advantage of being home to a third of Germany’s pumped storage capacity. A Nordhausen University of Applied Sciences report in 2021 confirmed that the energy system transformation is feasible and that “a climate-neutral Thuringia is realistic and affordable.” However, this would require:

    • Annual investment of two billion euros, not including income from new jobs and higher tax revenues,
    • reliable expansion targets for renewables and a tripling of wind/solar capacities,
    • the expansion of power-to-heat and heat storage systems,
    • a conversion of biogas utilization of exclusively heat and electricity to bio-methane,
    • the full use of efficiency potential
    • and reliable CO2 reduction targets.

    Red-red-green: some achievements, unresolved issues

    The coalition government of the Social Democratic Party, Greens and the Left Party emphasizes that it has set many things in motion. For example, it has anchored renewable energy expansion and carbon reduction targets in the Climate Act and the EIKS energy strategy. However, only 0.6 percent of the required 1.8 percent of the state’s area for wind energy by 2027 has been achieved. Municipalities receive money per capita from the “Climate Pact” for investments in climate action. Green Environment Minister Bernhard Stengele told Table.Briefings: “Climate action and economic strength go hand in hand if we get it right. We have already achieved a lot in the last ten years,” for example, in the expansion of solar energy, the promotion of community energy and the financing of local authorities. “If we don’t continue like this, if we fall behind on climate action, it will be to the detriment of everyone.”

    However, much work remains: The Climate Act and strategy have yet to be monitored. The Climate Act must also be adapted to the federal target of achieving net zero emissions by 2045 (previously “in the second half of the 21st century”). And a report by management consultants prognos and the Leipzig Institute for Energy providing a detailed path calculation for zero emissions in all sectors will only be published this fall after the election. This leaves important decisions on further developments in the hands of the next parliament and the next government in Erfurt.

    Climate Council: Next legislature is crucial

    An “Appeal by the Thuringian Climate Council” for the upcoming state elections emphasizes the state’s chances of achieving net-zero development. In it, the state government’s panel of experts stresses that Thuringia is one of the “regions most affected by climate change in Germany” with a warming of 1.7 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. They warn that heat, heavy rain, floods and forest fires jeopardize people’s lives, the economy and harvests. While the state is innovative and, along with Saxony, has the best potential in Germany for the utilization of solar energy, it needs to invest more in the expansion of renewables, efficiency and adaptation to climate change, they say.

    Thuringia could make an “important contribution to climate action without compromising living standards,” the experts, led by Jena hydrologist Kai Uwe Totsche, explained. “The upcoming legislative period is crucial for climate action,” the statement on the state election continues. “Inform yourself about the parties’ strategies and plans and consider the urgency of climate action and adaptation when casting your vote.”

    AfD and CDU have hindered climate action

    However, it is precisely the strategies and plans of the political parties that cast doubt on an ambitious course towards net zero. After all, the AfD and the CDU, which are leading in the polls, have so far tended to slow down climate action in Thuringia. The AfD denies the causes of man-made climate change and fundamentally criticizes climate action. In Thuringia, it calls for halting wind power expansion, no new power lines or efficiency targets, it wants Russian gas and a return to nuclear power – which is out of Thuringia’s power as it is only a federal state.

    Although the CDU in Thuringia supports the expansion of renewables, it refers to “technology-open solutions” and opposes “excessive utopian demands in climate policy.” As recently as the end of 2023, it voted together with the AfD in favor of a motion by the Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the Thuringian state parliament that practically banned the development of wind energy in forests – and pushed it through against the votes of the minority governing coalition. This makes the goal of tripling wind capacity in the state, as required for achieving net-zero emissions, very doubtful.

    • Klimapolitik
    Translation missing.

    UN: How rising sea levels threaten the existence of countries

    Viele Pazifik-Staaten sind durch den Meeresspiegel in ihrer Existenz bedroht. Die Hauptinsel von Tuvalu nach einer Überflutung.
    Rising sea levels threaten the existence of many Pacific states. Here, the main island of Tuvalu after a flood.

    A new UN study warns of rapidly rising sea levels. It reports that small island states, particularly in the Pacific, are at serious risk of sinking as sea levels in these regions are rising much faster than globally. The damage and risks for people, infrastructure and the economy are increasing and food security is jeopardized. And water levels and losses will continue to rise.

    Since the early 2000s, the seas have risen faster than at any point in the last 3,000 years. The causes are believed to be melting land ice, increasing temperatures and the expansion of seawater. The UN warns that the rise is continuing to accelerate, threatening hundreds of millions of people. Rising sea levels are already causing billions in economic damage every year. If the climate crisis cannot be stopped, millions of people could become climate refugees in just a few decades.

    At first glance, it may only be a few millimeters, but it will severely affect humanity. Compared to the turn of the century (1993 to 2002), sea level rise has more than doubled in the last ten years – from 0.21 to 0.48 centimeters per year. The main cause of this is man-made climate change and the burning of fossil fuels, which have historically been responsible for 69 percent of CO2 emissions and, in recent years (2013 to 2022), for almost 90 percent.

    Billions in damage, salinization of drinking water, climate refugees

    Many small island nations could soon sink or become uninhabitable. In large parts of the western tropical Pacific, sea levels have risen 10 to 15 centimeters in the last 30 years, almost twice as fast as the global average, according to a new report on the southwest Pacific by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The report found that some islands were affected by coastal flooding ten times more frequently than in 1980. The sea is also warming much faster than the global average in large parts of the region. Storms are becoming increasingly violent. In 2023, the Southwest Pacific experienced a total of 34 “hydrometeorological hazard events,” meaning extreme storms, floods and droughts that affected more than 25 million people and caused 4.4 billion US dollars in economic damage.

    The economic consequences are grave:

    • According to Rosanne Martyr of Climate Analytics, “some Pacific Island nations including Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and Micronesia lost more than 1 percent of their GDP to rising seas.”
    • Floods and coastal inundation result in annual damage to buildings, infrastructure and agriculture of over 1.6 billion US dollars in Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
    • 90 percent of the population on Pacific islands live only five kilometers or less from the coast. Half of the entire infrastructure is located within 500 meters of coasts.
    • Ingressing seawater causes drinking water to become salinated and damages agriculture. The rise in sea temperatures often has a negative impact on fish stocks and income opportunities.

    According to the scientists at Climate Analytics, if current climate policy is maintained, global warming could reach 2.7 degrees by 2050 and sea levels could rise by 56 centimeters by 2100 compared to 2020. By comparison, most Pacific islands are, on average, only one to two meters above sea level. If warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees and net-zero emissions are achieved by 2050, the sea will rise by 38 centimeters by 2100.

    The WMO concludes: “Climate change threatens the future of Pacific islands.” This is why Tuvalu has already signed a resettlement agreement with Australia. Every year, 280 of Tuvalu’s 11,000 inhabitants can relocate to the neighboring country. Other countries in the region have association agreements with the USA (Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Palau) and New Zealand (Cook Islands, Niu,e), allowing their citizens to settle there. Australia and New Zealand have also launched an immigration lottery where visas can be won, as reported by Le Monde Diplomatique. However, not all island populations have such emigration options.

    Rising sea levels are irreversible

    The UN predicts that storm surges and flooding will continue to worsen in the future. Seaports are also threatened by rising sea levels, which could impact global trade. Large coastal cities on all continents are also at risk.

    The UN warns that sea level rise is irreversible:

    • Even after achieving net-zero emissions, sea levels will continue to rise as land ice will continue to melt due to global warming. According to the UN, sea levels will “continue to rise for centuries or millennia into the future.”
    • Climate scientists predict that historical emissions alone will lead to a rise in sea level of 0.7 to 1.1 meters by the year 2300.
    • With long-term global warming of two degrees, the sea level would rise by twelve to 20 meters over the next few centuries.

    Guterres and island nations call for fossil fuel exit

    During a visit to Tonga on Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on wealthy countries to drastically cut carbon emissions and quickly phase out fossil fuels. In its study, the UN calls on countries to

    • Align the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which must be submitted to the UN at the beginning of 2025, with the 1.5 degree target.
    • Adopt an ambitious new climate finance target (NCQG) at COP29 in Baku and “mobilize the necessary trillions of US dollars.”
    • Stop opening new coal mines and phasing out coal by 2040, and reduce the use of oil and gas by 30 percent by 2030.

    The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) had already called for “trillions of US dollars” for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) at the COP interim conference in Bonn. Moreover, they demanded improved access to international climate finance for small states. “The institutions that channel this money to us are not built with the context-specific aspects of SIDS and LDCs in mind – they are built for bigger countries because they want bigger impact,” complained Michai Robertson, Senior Advisor to AOSIS. The group of countries demands ending funding for fossil fuel projects.

    • COP29
    • Hochwasser
    Translation missing.

    Events

    Aug. 30, 11 a.m. CEST, Online
    Webinar Carbon Brief’s webinar live from the Arctic
    Carbon Brief’s associate editor Daisy Dunne is traveling to the UK’s Arctic research station in Ny-Ålesund on the Norwegian island of Svalbard in the Arctic Ocean. They will also be answering questions on everything from Arctic climate science to what life is like for researchers living and working in Svalbard. Info

    Sept. 1
    State elections in Thuringia and Saxony
    The German states of Saxony and Thuringia will elect a new state parliament. Forming a government could be difficult in both federal states and the upcoming state governments could have a significant influence on the implementation of climate policy.

    Sept. 1-8, Berlin
    Summer Academy Climate journalism and the energy transition
    Hosted in Berlin, the heart of expertise in climate and energy, this immersive experience offers a unique opportunity for journalists to delve into the crucial aspects of climate communication, science-based reporting and cross-border cooperation. Info

    Sept. 5, 9 a.m. CEST, Online
    Webinar E-methane: a new gas for a net-zero future?
    In this webinar, the International Energy Agency (IEA) discusses the role that e-methane can play in decarbonization. Info

    Sept 5, 12 p.m. CEST, Online
    Webinar Climate Investing in Times of Net Zero Commitments: Is Regulation Driving Towards the Right Path?
    During this webinar, expert speakers will delve into these critical topics, focusing on the role of regulation in guiding financial industries’ investments in climate initiatives, and explore how the financial industry can drive the transition towards a sustainable, net-zero future. Info

    Sept. 5-6, Rio de Janeiro
    Conference Fifth Global Conference on Strengthening Synergies between the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
    The UNFCCC conference brings together state and non-state actors to discuss synergies between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement. Info

    News

    Climate in Numbers: EU emissions fall by four percent

    In the first three months of 2024, greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union fell by a total of four percent compared to the same period last year. According to figures from the EU statistics office Eurostat, the member states emitted 894 million tons of CO2 equivalents (CO2 eq) in the first quarter of the year – compared to 931 CO2 eq from January to March 2023.

    Twenty EU countries reported a reduction in greenhouse gases – the largest reductions came from Bulgaria (-15.2 percent), Germany (-6.7 percent), and Belgium (-6.0 percent). Malta (8.8), Lithuania (7.4), and Latvia (5.7) reported the largest increases in GHG emissions.

    Eight countries with a GHG reduction in the first quarter of the year also recorded a concurrent decline in GDP (Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and the Czech Republic). 12 countries show a decrease in emissions with simultaneous GDP growth (Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Sweden and Croatia). Overall, EU-wide GDP increased by 0.3 percent. luk

    • Treibhausgase

    Effort Sharing: NGOs sue EU Commission

    Environmental activists have sued the European Commission over its emissions regulations for the year 2030 before the European Court of Justice. They seek a ruling from the EU’s second-highest court that would compel the Commission to strengthen its climate ambitions, according to statements from the NGOs Climate Action Network Europe (CAN Europe) and Global Legal Action Network (GLAN) on Tuesday.

    The lawsuit concerns the national greenhouse gas reduction targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) – also known as burden sharing. It covers the sectors of transportation, agriculture, buildings, waste, and parts of industry that are not included in the European emissions trading system, setting national reduction targets up to the year 2030.

    NGOs see Paris climate goals at risk

    The NGOs argue that the limits are insufficient to reduce Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to meet the Paris climate goals. The EU’s targets are not science-based, said a lawyer representing the NGOs. Wealthy nations and major historical polluters like the EU should take faster action, the organizations demand.

    According to a letter from the court to the plaintiffs’ lawyers, obtained by Reuters, the court has prioritized the case. This could mean that it will be heard in 2025. The lawsuit was originally filed in February but was not made public at the time. In a written defense submitted to the court in July, which was seen by Reuters, the Commission requested the court to dismiss the case as inadmissible. The court did not comply with that request.

    • Climate & Environment
    • Climate complaints
    • Climate targets
    • Emissionshandel
    • EU-Kommission
    • Klima & Umwelt
    • Klimaklagen
    • Klimaziele

    Renewable energies: China reaches expansion target six years ahead of schedule

    China has reached its renewables expansion target almost six years ahead of schedule. According to Bloomberg, citing the National Energy Administration, the country installed 25 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar energy in July, bringing China’s total renewable energy capacity to 1,206 gigawatts. In late 2020, President Xi Jinping announced the goal of generating at least 1,200 gigawatts from clean energy sources by 2030.

    Due to the record installation of wind and solar power plants in 2023, China’s electricity generation from renewables increased by 25 percent in the first quarter of 2024 year-on-year. In contrast, the consumption of coal-fired electricity has fallen. Nevertheless, according to Bloomberg, solar and wind energy have only generated around 14 percent of the electricity consumed so far this year. This means that the utilization rate must increase significantly. China is working on a new climate plan (Nationally Determined Contributions), which it must submit to the United Nations by February 2025. However, experts believe that this will not be enough to bring the country onto the 1.5-degree path.

    China needs much more solar and wind

    Moreover, experts consider Xi’s renewables expansion target of 1,200 gigawatts to be too low to achieve the target of supplying a quarter of the energy mix (not electricity generation) from non-fossil sources by 2030. For example, Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) on X believes that China is “badly behind on the much more important carbon intensity target.” He said that significantly more solar and wind power would be needed, as hydropower and nuclear power could not be significantly expanded beyond existing plans by 2030. Myllyvirta also praised “the impressive acceleration in solar power deployment in 2023.”

    Meanwhile, the People’s Bank and seven ministries issued new guidelines on Tuesday that provide companies in the Yangtze region with new incentives to raise more capital through green bonds and shares. According to the South China Morning Post, this is intended to accelerate the transformation of the region’s economy. Details are not yet known. The Yangtze River Economic Belt comprises eleven provinces, including the autonomous cities of Shanghai and Chongqing, representing 44 percent of China’s economic output. ck

    • Climate protection
    • Energy transition
    • Erneuerbare Energien
    • Solar

    Coastal adaptation: Meta-study reveals adaptation gaps for 199 cities

    Most measures taken by coastal cities to adapt to climate change are “rather slow, of narrow scope and not transformative.” This is revealed by a meta-study under the direction of Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU), published on Monday in “Nature Cities.” The study analyzed results from over 199 cities in 54 countries. Specifically, it examines how climate risks – such as rising sea levels, storms, flooding or heat – affect the population, infrastructure and ecosystems and how vulnerable they are.

    Moreover, the study’s authors note that already implemented measures show little evidence of a sustainable reduction in risks, independent of the population size or income level of the cities examined.
    Matthias Garschagen, geographer at LMU and one of the authors, criticizes: “Cities often try to optimize disaster management for future risks based on experience without fundamentally questioning whether these approaches will still be viable in the future.” This is why Garschagen recommends better scenarios and modeling methods. Another important question is, “When does abandoning coastal adaptation measures and considering resettlement instead make more sense.”

    Resettlement measures are currently underway in Indonesia, for example. There, the sinking capital Jakarta is being replaced by Nusantara – a new city with a population of millions located on the island of Borneo, whose construction has been repeatedly criticized by NGOs due to severe deforestation. Pacific island states such as Tuvalu, Palau, and the Cook Islands have also already negotiated resettlement agreements, for example, with Australia and the USA. lb

    • Klimaanpassung

    Germany: How the climate crisis destroys domestic harvests

    The climate crisis is making weather conditions more uncertain – in Germany, this jeopardizes “entire harvests depending on the region.” This is according to the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) on the occasion of the presentation of the preliminary official harvest report 2024. A wet autumn, a “record warm spring in 2024 with late frosts, flooding in many places and a wet summer with numerous severe storms” have reduced crop yields in Germany.

    In figures:

    • According to the report, 34.5 million tons of grain were harvested, excluding grain maize – a decrease of 9.1 percent.
    • The grain cultivation area decreased by 5.7 percent to 5.27 million hectares due to heavy regional rainfall.
    • The rapeseed cultivation area decreased by 7.3 percent to 1.09 million hectares.
    • Preliminary figures show that 3.6 million tons of winter rapeseed were harvested – 14.3 percent less than in the previous year.
    • According to the BMEL, potato cultivation as well as fruit and wine growing also suffered “regionally significantly from the many capricious weather conditions.”

    German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir stressed the need to adapt to climate change. Climate adaptation has “long been a reality” on many farms, he said. The BMEL referred to various instruments with which the German government supports climate adaptation and climate protection in agriculture – including the National Water Strategy, the promotion of plant breeding to develop more resilient varieties, various incentives for agroforestry systems, the Climate Action Program 2030, 2030 Organic Strategy, measures to reduce red tape and other instruments to strengthen the adaptability of farms. ae

    • Hochwasser
    • Klimaanpassung

    Iron and steel industry: Green production planned

    Newly announced production facilities for iron and steel, particularly in Europe, are increasingly geared towards climate-friendly processes. However, new CO2-intensive blast furnaces are being built in Asia, primarily in India. This is according to the study “Pedal to the Metal 2024” by the Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

    The greatest progress has been made in the area of steel recycling: 93 percent of the new production capacities announced in the steel sector last year are electric arc furnaces, in which steel scrap is renewed. According to the authors, if developments proceed as announced, the target set by the International Energy Agency (IEA) will be within reach: The IEA states that 37 percent of global steel production in 2030 should be produced using these electricity-powered furnaces. However, the actual construction of these plants has not yet begun for the most part.

    Direct reduction of iron ore (DRI) is also on the rise. Globally, 36 percent of the newly announced plants are based on DRI technology. These plants can potentially produce low-CO2 new steel, provided that “green” hydrogen is used to eliminate the oxygen atoms in the iron ore. According to GEM, the new steel plants currently planned in Europe are all DRI-based, but here too, many projects are not yet under construction.

    However, the leading countries in terms of volume in the steel sector, China and India, are bucking the trend. China is planning to build new coal-based blast furnaces with a capacity of 128 million tons of iron per year (36 percent of new blast furnace projects worldwide). However, the planning and construction of new blast furnaces there is now proceeding more slowly than the decommissioning of older blast furnaces.

    India, on the other hand, is planning a massive expansion: new blast furnace capacities amounting to 122 million tons of iron per year (34 percent global share) are planned using this emission-intensive technology. According to GEM, there is a risk of lock-in effects: Investments in new blast furnaces could make it politically and economically difficult to decarbonize the iron and steel industry. av

    • Decarbonization

    Must-Reads

    Euractiv: Friendship for the climate. For the EU and the US, carbon-neutral technologies such as wind turbines, solar cells and batteries are vital to security and prosperity. China’s growing dominance in this area and Russia’s suspension of gas supplies have reinforced this view. But tensions are also brewing between the transatlantic partners. The US Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which provides subsidies for the production of green energy technologies in the US, has been criticized by the European Commission as protectionist. Nevertheless, both economic powers are working to overcome their differences. To the article

    Salon.com: Collapse of snow crab populations due to climate change. A few years ago, the crab populations crashed, with more than 90 percent disappearing, an estimated 47 billion animals vanishing. In 2022, crab fishing season was canceled. Scientists hypothesized at the time that climate change was the culprit; now a recent study in the journal Nature Climate Change has confirmed it. To the article

    New York Times: Samoa in distress. The Samoa Islands in the Pacific, which belong to the USA, suffer massively from climate change. Rising sea levels have led to a shortage of fresh water. One hospital had to temporarily close down almost completely. A federal program is now set to help the affected islands, but there aren’t enough workers. To the article

    Wall Street Journal: Startups improve power grids. Startups working to make power grids more effective are increasingly attracting venture capitalists. They have become more cautious about investing in climate technologies, but are getting involved in technologies that increase the efficiency and reliability of power grids. Read the article

    Opinion

    Electromobility: How transport can become greener – without affecting the budget

    By Nikolas von Wysiecki
    Nikolas von Wysiecki, deputy head of transport policy at environmental organization NABU.

    The transition to battery-powered electromobility is the most important political measure for the climate problem of transport – especially because it can be implemented much faster than a broader mobility transition, which is also necessary. However, contrary to the global trend, Germany’s demand for electric cars is not growing as quickly as expected.

    This creates problems for local manufacturers, who earn most of their money with large combustion engines. By 2025 at the latest, when new fleet limits come into force across the EU, they could face fines in the billions – unless they can significantly increase their EV sales. However, after the abrupt end of the purchase premium and in light of the current budget debate, the prospects for this currently seem poor.

    Yet there is a completely budget-neutral way to give electromobility in Germany – and, in turn, climate action in the transport sector – a new boost: The update to the EU Renewable Energy Directive for transport (RED) must be transposed into national law by next spring. The lead Ministry of the Environment is currently working on a draft, which is expected to be presented in the coming weeks. This is an opportunity to promote both climate protection and e-mobility.

    A quota system for the climate

    However, the RED must be fundamentally reorganized in its German legal implementation to achieve this.

    The RED specifies how much renewable energy must be used in transportation. In Germany, this has so far been regulated via the GHG quota system. Since 2015, it has obliged oil companies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a certain amount. If oil companies do not meet the quota themselves, they can compensate for this by paying money to providers of more eco-friendly energy sources – for example, charging electricity providers, who generally use green electricity, or the biofuel industry. The costs are an incentive for green innovations. To this end, the GHG quota system provides a budget-neutral framework.

    The birth defect: money for climate-damaging biofuel

    That sounds good in theory, but a large proportion of the compensation payments end up going to suppliers of biofuels that are not green at all. Contrary to what is often claimed, more than half of these fuels still come directly from the farmland. Several studies confirm that, in many cases, they are even more harmful to the climate than fossil fuels. Because their official carbon footprint is incomplete, the quota system still classifies them as low-GHG.

    The use of biogenic fuels from arable land could even increase in the future. A significant proportion of the limited land available in Germany is already being used for fuel production.

    Meanwhile, there are many assurances that biofuels come largely from residues, so-called “advanced biofuels.” However, in 2022, almost half of them came from Asian palm oil mill residues, although the EU actually no longer wanted to promote palm oil (no data is yet available for 2023). On top of this, there is a scandalous fraud system in which oil from China is simply reclassified as waste.

    Hardly any climate action improvements so far

    This means the German GHG quota system does not live up to its political claim. The existing compliance options neither deliver proper climate action nor promote green innovations. Those bearing the brunt – apart from the climate – are the consumers who finance the system at the filling station.

    In the current situation, it would be absolutely wrong to generally increase the mandatory share for renewables in transportation, as the automotive industry recently proposed. This would only support non-green biofuels with even more money.

    Electromobility is the means of choice for climate action. To better promote it, RED must be consistently restructured in its German legal implementation. Fuels from farmland must be excluded from the GHG quota, and waste and residual materials must be strictly limited. This is legally possible. The emissions balance must finally be calculated in an honest manner. Imaginary reductions of 90 percent would then no longer be recognized.

    Charging electricity must become the central commodity on the GHG quota market – for example, by giving it a higher weighting in the quota system or increasing the minimum purchase quantity. This is the only way to improve the charging station business model and make the GHG quota payment to EV owners more reliable. Both are important incentives for electromobility.

    True transformation through RED is possible

    The argument that all options are needed does not count here: The targets for renewables in transport can be met without fuels from farmland. Anyone who wants to use biofuels in their cars could still do so. However, given the limited budget available for climate action, why should this be subsidized by the state when electromobility for cars and trucks can be promoted instead?

    Biofuel fraud must be consistently prevented. The latest example of fraud in upstream emission reductions shows how difficult it is to verify climate action using certificates. The controlling authorities must send a clear signal to the market: Fuel and GHG reduction volumes must no longer be recognized in Germany if there is no opportunity for on-site audits of the producing plants in other countries.

    RED in transport enables climate action innovations and the promotion of electromobility without requiring additional money from the federal budget. Therefore, all federal ministries should have a common interest in making the RED a genuine transformation instrument.

    Nikolas von Wysiecki is deputy head of transport policy at environmental organization NABU.

    • Flottengrenzwerte

    Climate.Table editorial team

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