The next state election in Germany is just ten days away, and migration and populism will be at the heart of the vote. And just like Saxony and Thuringia, the climate crisis has practically disappeared from the public debate in Brandenburg. But not for us: We present the Brandenburg climate check with an overview of what has worked there and where efforts have failed. Even if the political parties ignore the issue, the next record-breaking summer or heavy rainfall is certain.
This is certainly also due to the fact that although the world has decided to move away from fossil fuels, coal is currently making a comeback. India and China in particular continue to expand the dirtiest source of energy, while other countries phase it out. We have all the details on this complex process in today’s issue.
And what happens when effective climate policy is prevented or delayed is once again a topic in this Climate Table: Why is Latin America shrouded in smoke? What could happen if transport emissions are not reduced quickly? What lawsuits can corporations expect? And how can we best plan to adapt to climate change?
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Bernhard Pötter
Feature
Brandenburg climate check: Why the government plan leaves many open questions
The decision on climate action in Brandenburg is made here: Jänschwalde lignite-fired power plant.
Climate issues have traditionally had a difficult status in the German state of Brandenburg. The energy infrastructure is based on climate-damaging lignite-fired power generation, and the state has one of the highest per capita CO2 emissions in Germany at around 18 tons. Although agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate extremes and the “Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research” in the state capital has been providing world-renowned science on climate policy since 1992, the state’s climate institutions are weak: For example, it has only been four years since the state government officially started dealing with climate action in the Ministry of the Environment. Climate policy hardly played a role in the election campaign that is now ending. It remains to be seen whether the Green Party, which pushed the issue in the government, will be part of the next government or even in the state parliament.
Leading in CO2 emissions and reduction
On the other hand, Brandenburg is also traditionally one of the leading states in Germany when it comes to reducing greenhouse gases: Official figures show that emissions have fallen by 57 percent since 1990, from 125 million tons to just under 50 million. The main reasons for this substantial contribution to the climate are the closure of many lignite-fired power plants after the reunification of Germany and the expansion of renewables. Today, Brandenburg exports its electricity primarily to Berlin – however, the resulting carbon emissions are attributed to Brandenburg. The situation is similar for transport: The Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER), which many Berliners use, burdens Brandenburg’s carbon footprint with its emissions.
The state government believes it is well on track with its emissions estimate for 2023, but also faces challenges:
The government estimates a “historic decline” in emissions for 2023, even below the level of the Covid pandemic – a reduction of 4.5 percent compared to the previous year.
However, this means the state is well behind the national trend 2023 of minus ten percent.
The government estimates the climate-related damage from Brandenburg’s emissions at ten billion euros for 2023.
With 8.7 gigawatts of installed capacity, Brandenburg is the second-largest wind state in Germany after Lower Saxony. According to the government, this, combined with electricity from photovoltaics, has avoided almost 15 million tonnes of CO2 – and thus, according to this calculation, damage amounting to 800 million euros.
Since 2000: CO2 reduction only due to external factors
Lignite is also central to Brandenburg’s climate footprint: The two lignite-fired power plants in Jänschwalde and Schwarze Pumpe alone account for 44 percent of all emissions.
Ecological Economy Research (IÖW) reported that Brandenburg’s emissions between 2000 and 2018 improved practically only due to external factors: the nationwide coal phase-out, the impact of the pandemic and the economic downturn. With just three percent of Germany’s population and only 2.2 percent of Germany’s economic power, Brandenburg remains responsible for seven percent of Germany’s emissions. The report commissioned by the green-led Ministry of the Environment in Potsdam calls for the state to “take action beyond the coal phase-out.”
Climate plan: Hoping for a coal phase-out
Following lengthy internal coordination, two years later than planned, the state government presented its “climate plan” in March 2024. Like the national government, it sets net zero by 2045 at the latest and lays down ambitious targets of minus 74 percent for 2030 and minus 96 percent for 2040. Like the recently watered-down Federal Climate Change Act (KSG), Brandenburg has set reduction targets for each sector for 2030, 2040 and 2045. However, unlike the KSG, the climate plan does not have a legally enshrined “readjustment mechanism” if the targets are exceeded.
Daniela Setton, Head of the Climate Protection and Sustainability Department at the Brandenburg Ministry of Agriculture, Environment and Climate Protection (MLUK), sees good prospects for achieving the 2030 target: “Particularly with the planned closure of further lignite units in Jänschwalde under the coal phase-out and the expected measures in line with the decarbonization targets at the industrial companies Arcelor Mittal, Cemex and the PCK refinery in Schwedt, we can close the remaining 18-million-ton gap until the reduction to 32 million tons,” she told Table. Briefings.
The country would then face even greater challenges in the following decade: The building and transport sectors would have to be tackled just as consistently as improving the climate footprint of land use, such as the rewetting of peatlands: The sector is supposed to serve as a carbon sink, but currently emits around 2.5 million tons of CO2 each year.
Climate Alliance: Too little and too late
Although the Brandenburg Climate Alliance sees the “climate plan” as progress, it says it is too late, not binding and not ambitious enough. The plan was initially meant to be ready by the end of 2022, but was shelved for a long time and then watered down by the State Chancellery. Franziska Sperfeld from the German NGO BUND praises the state’s mobility law, which, for the first time, lays out “the steps and intermediate steps for a transport system of the future.” However, “many measures are not taken into account” in the state’s climate plan, and there are no answers to the “climate action gap between 2030 and 2040,” she told Table.Briefings. She said it was clear that the government under SPD Minister-President Dietmar Woidke “does not fully support climate policy.”
Several examples show how controversial climate issues are in the state government of the SPD, CDU and Greens:
In early August, at the end of the election campaign, Minister-President Woidke proposed using CCS in neighboring Poland to reduce Brandenburg’s emissions (which is not yet legally possible) without consulting the responsible environment ministry.
Brandenburg is the only German state without a climate agency to coordinate measures and funding; the Energy Agency performs part of this task.
The climate plan is a government agreement and not a law. The next state government (especially under the influence of the far-right AfD, which denies man-made climate change) could amend it more easily than a law passed by the state parliament. Legal action against it is also more difficult.
According to the government, funding for the roughly 80 measures laid out in the climate plan, primarily in the areas of transport, building refurbishment, and public investment, has “not yet been fully secured.”
How crisis-proof is the climate plan?
For department head Setton, the climate plan is a major step forward and is well anchored in administrative action despite not being a law: “The plan is bindingly anchored in the departments because it incorporates the state’s strategies in energy, industry and mobility. This means that they are all part of the climate plan; anyone who wanted to change this would call all these plans into question.”
She has a different concern concerning climate policy: “We need more jobs and staff tospeed up planning for the expansion of renewables or infrastructure such as pipelines and grids or the decarbonization of the industry. However, this is difficult to get because skilled labor is scarce and the private sector pays better.”
Climate policy
Mobilität
New power plants: How India and China sabotage the global coal phase-out
India plans to invest another 7.2 billion euros in new coal-fired power plants. The expansion is being fuelled by the high energy demand.
Ten months after the COP28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels, important countries continue to prioritize coal – and global consumption is on the rise. India recently announced plans to invest 7.2 billion euros in new coal-fired power plants over the next few years. At least 4.7 gigawatts of new capacity will be built near mines, in addition to expansion plans for 88 gigawatts of conventional power plants – mainly coal – by 2032.
A phase-out is only apparent in some pioneering countries. Contrary to all climate targets, coal consumption grew rapidly in India, China and worldwide last year. 2023 was a record year for coal – global consumption rose by 2.3 percent.
Pioneer and slower coal growth
And yet there is progress: “The pipeline of new coal-fired power plants is slowly being reduced and the growth momentum is slowing down,” says coal expert Jan Steckel from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC). Steckel is “cautiously optimistic about the global coal phase-out” as costs of renewable energies and storage continue to fall and some pioneers scale back their share of coal in the electricity mix.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world is on the verge of a coal peak thanks to the energy transition and lower demand for coal in the steel sector. However, in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2030, coal-fired electricity should only make up four percent of the global electricity mix instead of 35 percent (2023). This poses immense challenges for India and China in particular.
India: Decades away from the coal peak
China and India now account for two-thirds of global coal-fired power generation. Energy demand in both countries has risen massively in recent years, complicating the phase-out of coal.
India finds itself in an energy dilemma:
The IEA forecasts that India’s energy demand will grow at the fastest rate of any country or world region over the next three decades due to its development. Electricity demand is growing by around eight percent annually. To this end, India is building so-called “ultra-supercritical power plants,” which are supposed to cause fewer CO2 emissions. However, Steckel considers this more of a “sham debate.” The MCC expert says that “the high levels of CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will hardly be reduced.”
India is one of the largest coal producers in the world. When the country recently produced more than one billion tons of coal and lignite for the first time, Prime Minister Modi praised this as a “remarkable feat.”
The expansion of renewables is stalling. Less than 15 GW of new wind and solar capacity has been built in each of the last two years. Experts warn that 50 to 60 GW should be installed each year. Despite India’s enormous potential for wind power, only four percent of the country’s electricity mix comes from this source. A glimmer of hope: India built 14.9 gigawatts of new solar capacity in the first half of 2024, more than in any previous half-year period.
To reach a 1.5-degree-compatible path, India would have to turn its electricity sector upside down: The share of coal in the electricity mix would have to fall from 72 percent to between 17 and 23 percent by 2030. Renewables would have to increase their share from 21 percent to between 68 and 74 percent. However, Rohit Chandra, energy expert at the Indian Institute of Technology, is pessimistic. He expects coal to continue to play a major role for several decades. According to the IEA, India’s coal demand in 2050 could be ten percent above the current level.
However, India is a special case. A significant part of the population still lives in poverty. “Denying these people access to cheap energy is politically unfeasible and would also be ethically questionable. But India’s government is also interested in reducing emissions because the country is particularly affected by the climate crisis,” says Steckel.
China: Renewables displace coal – but not fast enough
China would also have to change its energy system to emission-free alternatives much more quickly to keep the global climate targets achievable. Although the country is making some progress, it has a particular obligation as the largest consumer of coal.
According to the IEA, China consumed six percent more coal in 2023 than in the previous year.
At the same time, the share of coal in the electricity mix has fallen. Although electricity demand continues to rise, renewable energies can now cover a large proportion of the additional demand.
Although China continues to build new coal-fired power plants, capacity utilization has fallen in recent years. The IEA expects the People’s Republic to reach its coal-fired power generation peak around 2025. A turnaround is also foreseeable in the steel sector.
Although China plans to reduce its coal consumption between 2025 and 2030, it has yet to set any absolute targets. In order to keep the 1.5-degree target achievable, China would have to reduce the share of coal in its electricity mix to between seven and 13 percent by 2030 – in May 2024, it was still at 53 percent. There is little to suggest that such a rapid phase-out will succeed.
Steckel is also relatively optimistic about China. “In China, too, the coal phase-out could happen faster than one would expect for economic reasons.” The MCC expert assumes that “new coal-fired power plants will be written off in well under 40 years.”
Among the G7 countries, Japan is the most persistent supporter of coal:
Japan recently opened two new coal-fired power plant units.
According to government figures, coal will still account for 19 percent of the electricity mix in 2030 – it currently accounts for around 30 percent. Observers even consider the 19 percent mark too ambitious.
A 1.5-degree path would require Japan to generate only one to two percent of its electricity from coal by 2030.
Pioneer: Significant reduction in just a few years
Several frontrunner countries show how quickly coal consumption can be reduced:
Within six years, the UK has reduced the proportion of coal in the electricity mix from 36 percent to just over two percent in 2019 and replaced it mainly with wind energy. The last British coal-fired power plant will be taken off the grid in 2024.
Greece has reduced its share of coal from 51 to 10 percent (2022) within eight years and replaced it with natural gas and renewables.
Denmark achieved a reduction of 44 percentage points between 2006 and 2022 and is currently at just over ten percent coal-fired electricity.
Spain, Portugal, the USA, Israel and Germany also quickly reduced the proportion of coal in their electricity mix. However, the USA and Israel primarily use natural gas as a substitute. Coal still accounts for 16 percent in the USA and almost 27 percent in Germany.
According to Eurostat, European coal consumptionfell by more than 100 million tons to 351 million tons in 2023. However, consumption had increased in the two years before that.
The share of coal in Chile’s electricity mix first rose rapidly in the 2000s, only to fall again quickly after 2016 (43 percent). By 2023, the share of coal had more than halved to 16.7 percent. This success is attributed to higher emissions standards and trading.
Steckel said these successes were “primarily due to economic reasons.” Coal has been “replaced by cheap fracking gas” in the USA. “In the UK, there has been a national CO2 price in the energy sector for many years, which has made coal more expensive.”
China
Coal phase-out
COP28
Energy transition
Kohle
Events
Sept. 10-14, New York UN summitGeneral Assembly of the United Nations The United Nations General Debate will be held in New York for the 79th time. Part of it is the “Summit for the Future” (20-23 September), which will focus more on climate issues.Info
Sept. 17, 9 a.m., Berlin Conference Potential of urban energy efficiency in France and Germany Cities are at the heart of the energy transition in more than one way. On the one hand, 65% of the world’s energy needs are generated in cities. On the other hand, due to the geographical concentration of suppliers and consumers and the multitude of local actors, cities offer great potential for the development of global energy concepts and the exploitation of synergies. The event is aimed at all players in the energy sector in France and Germany. It will take place in Berlin and will be translated simultaneously into French and German.Info
Sept. 17-18, Heidelberg Congress17th Federal Congress on National Urban Development Policy The congress will look at the diverse collaborations in urban development and the major transformation tasks of climate change, digitalization, housing, social cohesion, co-production and the common good as well as the energy and mobility transition.Info
News
Climate in Numbers: Climate activists warn of driving bans
The German transport sector will face driving bans and car decommissioning in the 2030s if the government continues to fail to reduce emissions in the sector. This is the conclusion of a new study commissioned by Greenpeace and Germanwatch that is available to Table.Briefings in advance. The study states that the later the German government takes action, the more drastic the necessary interventions will be.
The authors from the New Climate Institute have analyzed several scenarios. If the government continued to act slowly, it would have to take severe measures from 2030 onwards, as emissions would have to fall almost twice as fast (by 18.2 million tons per year) than if immediate measures were taken:
Between 2030 and 2035, 4.8 million electric cars would have to be sold every year, which would present the car industry with “major challenges.” Over one million gasoline cars would have to be “decommissioned early” every year.
An “abruptly and extremely high CO2 price” would be necessary, primarily affecting lower income groups and “would be tantamount to a driving ban for this group.”
An annual investment in the rail infrastructure of around 25 billion euros would be required.
The German national budget would be “extremely” burdened in the 2030s.
Other sectors can hardly make up for missed targets
However, if decisive action were taken immediately, emissions in the transport sector would have to be reduced by 10.3 million tons annually. Necessary measures would include
Reduction of emissions-causing subsidies
Introduction of a speed limit
Annual investment in rail infrastructure of around 20 billion euros
A “rapidly rising CO2 price to a high level” of around 250 euros per tonne of CO2 in 2030
Two to 2.5 million new EVs would have to be registered every year, displacing gasoline cars, corresponding to “around 70 to 90 percent of new car registrations in 2023.”
The authors warn that other sectors could not compensate for the transport sector’s failure to meet its targets. They argue that the use of e-fuels for the national transport sector is also not an option, as they are needed in other sectors (aviation and shipping) where high prices are paid because there are hardly any other climate action measures. However, the authors are also optimistic: “With sufficient political will, nothing stands in the way of the rapid implementation of ambitious climate action measures in the transport sector.” nib
Climate protection
E-Fuels
Electromobility
Transport policy
Transport turnaround
Verkehrswende
Wildfires: Why half of South America is shrouded in smoke
The South American wildfire season usually reaches its peak at this time of year. But this year, the fires in Bolivia and parts of Brazil are worse than they have been since at least 2003, reports Copernicus. The resulting emissions in Bolivia and the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Amazonas are “exceptionally high.” Many of the fires are started by humans to make room for cattle pastures and fields. However, their spread is being fueled by a record drought. Three of the six large natural areas on Brazilian land – the Amazon, the Pantanal wetlands and the Cerrado – are affected.
Lula: ‘We cannot destroy what we depend on’
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited the Amazon region on Tuesday to get a first-hand picture of the crisis. He said that things seemed to be getting worse every year, according to The Guardian. “We must solve this problem, otherwise humanity will destroy our planet. We cannot destroy what we depend on for our lives.”
Nevertheless, Brazil plans to expand domestic oil and gas production under Lula. Environmental organizations have also called on Lula’s government to show more climate leadership within the G20 – Brazil currently holds the presidency. The background: The promise to “transition away from fossil fuels” has apparently been removed from the draft for a joint G20 climate communiqué. The NGOs are now calling for Brazil to push for it to be reinstated. Maria Victoria Emanuelli, campaigner at 350.org, called on Lula to pressure rich countries to fairly finance the transition to renewables. ae
Amazonas
Energy paper: How the CDU wants to reduce electricity costs
The German Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) aim to achieve net zero emissions at a lower cost. Deputy parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn has outlined how this is to be achieved in a five-page paper, which was approved by the executive committee of the parliamentary group last week and is available to Table.Briefings. “Without a cost transition towards greater efficiency, the energy transition will fail,” it says. It proposes improving the coordination of the expansion of grids and renewable energies. When expanding the electricity grids, the CDU/CSU wants to “generally” rely on overhead power lines instead of expensive underground cables; the latter were once introduced primarily due to pressure from CDU/CSU-governed federal states.
The paper prominently calls for “greater technological openness.” Instead of focusing primarily on solar and wind energy, Spahn calls for greater use of bioenergy and hydropower. However, this is somewhat at odds with the call for cost efficiency: At 19 cents per kilowatt hour, the EEG remuneration for electricity from biomass is around three times as high as for electricity from wind and large solar power plants. Large hydropower plants produce comparatively cheap electricity, but according to the Federal Environment Agency, the potential in Germany is already “largely tapped.”
More technological openness required in all areas
The paper also calls for more technological openness regarding “heating and heating technologies”; what exactly this means for the future of the Building Energy Act remains unclear. The party is clearly still struggling to find a position here. After the CDU initially heavily criticized the amendment to the law, which assigns a central role to heat pumps, party leader Friedrich Merz expressed the hope in June that many more heat pumps would be installed compared to the current number – which is likely to be complicated by reversing the amendment to the law.
The two parties are calling for a larger role for the capture, storage and utilization of carbon dioxide (CCS/CCU). The scope of application for these technologies should be “expanded.” As the German government also wants to enable the use of CCS for industrial processes and gas-fired power plants, this is likely to refer primarily to its use in coal-fired power plants. However, this is considered extremely unrealistic for both technical and economic reasons.
The CDU/CSU promises consumers significantly lower electricity costs: According to the paper, the CO2 revenue should reduce the electricity tax to the EU minimum and significantly grid fees. Spahn sees this relief as a quick and efficient alternative to climate money, which the German government “failed” to introduce. The paper did not specify how the subsidy programs for industry and consumers will be financed – which have so far been paid for from CO2 revenues. mkr
CCS
CDU/CSU
Climate protection
Electricity price
Energy transition
Fossil energies: Three times more lawsuits against oil, gas and coal companies
Since the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, the number of new climate lawsuits filed annually against the largest oil, gas and coal companies has almost tripled. This is the conclusion of the latest report “Big Oil in Court,” jointly compiled by Zero Carbon Analytics and Oil Change International. According to the report, at least 86 court cases are currently pending against oil companies such as BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, RWE, Shell and TotalEnergies. The analysis only examined lawsuits against major oil, gas and coal producers. Other legal actions, such as those against car manufacturers, banks or states, were not included.
Most of the lawsuits examined – 38 percent – demand compensation from the companies for climate damage. The report estimates that ExxonMobil, Shell and BP alone are each responsible for at least one trillion US dollars in damages. This figure shows the extent of the financial risks companies could face if the lawsuits are successful. Compensation claims are increasing because researchers are increasingly able to attribute individual extreme weather events to greenhouse gas emissions. One example is the lawsuit brought against RWE by the Peruvian mountain guide Saúl Luciano Lliuya.
16 percent of the cases concern allegedly misleading advertising. Twelve percent of the lawsuits are aimed at forcing the defendants to reduce their emissions. This includes a groundbreaking court case from the Netherlands. In it, Shell was obliged in 2021 to reduce its emissions by 45 percent by 2030. The appeal proceedings are currently underway and a decision could be made this fall.
Assessment by DUH
Environmental Action Germany (DUH) has been particularly busy filing complaints against misleading advertising for allegedly climate-neutral products. However, its legal actions are not only directed against oil companies, but also against retail companies such as dm or Netto, airlines such as Eurowings, computer manufacturers such as Apple and sporting goods manufacturers such as Adidas. So far, it has filed 92 lawsuits, DUH explained in an interim report presented on Tuesday. At 48, most of these have ended with the companies issuing a cease-and-desist declaration. Eleven cases are currently before court.
DUH has announced that it will increase its legal action against misleading advertising claiming climate neutrality. It calls on the German government to ban such advertising. ae
Klimaschäden
EU Court of Auditors warns: Recovery fund less green than hoped for
According to the EU Commission, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (ARF) will use €276 billion for the ecological transformation, which is 42.5 percent of the total ARF funds. A report by the European Court of Auditors now warns that the actual amount is likely to be at least €34.5 billion lower. The Court of Auditors’ report is the second in two weeks to criticize the methodology of the ARF.
The discrepancy is due to different climate coefficients – this is the proportion of a measure that passes as a climate measure. The EU Commission assesses expenditure according to its contribution to the goal of ecological transformation with a climate coefficient of 100 percent (for targeted climate measures), 40 percent (for measures with a significant positive impact) or 0 percent (for measures with no significant climate impact). The Court of Auditors criticizes that the Commission uses too high a climate coefficient for the evaluation of some expenditure categories, which would artificially increase the total amount for climate-relevant expenditure.
For example, the Court of Auditors argues that the construction of new high-efficiency buildingsshould havea climate coefficient of 0 percent – not 40 percent, as stipulated in the ARF. The Court of Auditors also criticizes the coefficients for railroad infrastructure and electricity grids as too high. The EU Commission defends its assessment in a statement. The climate coefficients are specified in the ARF and cannot be changed by the Commission.
No reporting on actual expenses
The Court of Auditors also criticizes the lack of meaningful milestones and target values for climate-related investments in the ARF. In addition, it is difficult to assess how much the ARF actually contributes to ecological change, partly because there is no reporting on actual expenditure.
The Commission defends the lack of reporting by stating that it is not required in the ARF regulation. In 2028, the Commission will examine the effectiveness of the ARF’s environmental expenditures in more detail in an ex-post evaluation.
Despite all the criticism, Joëlle Elvinger, who is responsible for the Court of Auditors’ report, says that the ARF, “if properly implemented, could significantly accelerate the achievement of the EU’s ambitiousclimate targets“. jaa
Wiederaufbaufonds
Hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants: How the tendering process should work
The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) was unable to present the power plant strategy before the summer break, as originally planned. However, on the third day after the summer break, it did: On Wednesday, the BMWK publishedthe long-awaited details for the tender for hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants. These will now be discussed with the industry as part of a consultation process before being finalized early next year.
As a first step, power plants with an output of 5 gigawatts will be put out to tender starting in early 2025. They will be built primarily in southern Germany and must run entirely on hydrogen by the start of the eighth year of operation at the latest; additional power plants with a capacity of 0.5 gigawatts are to use hydrogen exclusively from the outset in order to gain experience and accelerate the market ramp-up. In addition, existing plants with 2 gigawatts are to be converted to use hydrogen. There are also plans to invite tenders for long-term storage facilities with a capacity of 0.5 gigawatts.
On the one hand, operators will receive a subsidy for the construction costs of the power plants; how much will be determined as part of the tendering process. On the other hand, they will be reimbursed for the additional costs of using hydrogen compared to natural gas for 800 full-load hours in each of the first four years. This will be financed from the Climate and Transformation Fund. The BMWK currently estimates the total cost to be around 15 billion euros. In a second step, an additional 5 gigawatts of hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants are to be put out to tender; these are to be financed via the planned capacity market, the details of which are still being worked out.
In total, the BMWK plans envisage the tendering of 13 gigawatts of climate-neutral secured capacity. This is less than the 17 to 21 gigawatts mentioned in the Federal Network Agency’s latest monitoring report as a prerequisite for the coal phase-out in 2030; however, the Ministry expects a further 5 gigawatts to be created in the form of combined heat and power plants; these will be funded separately and must be planned in such a way that they can later be converted to hydrogen without great effort. mkr
Strommarkt
Hydrogen: Grid operators report high interest from industrial customers
Industrial customers currently connected to the natural gas grid are very interested in using hydrogen in the future. This is shown by the Gas Grid Area Transformation Plan 2024 presented on Wednesday. To determine future demand, 252 gas network operators, who operate 80 percent of the distribution networks, surveyed 3,540 large industrial customers. Of these, around two-thirds indicated an interest in purchasing hydrogen in the future. Among particularly large customers with a consumption of more than 100 million kilowatt hours per year, the figure was as high as 95 percent.
The gas network operators who are part of the “H2 vor Ort” initiative conclude that a large proportion of the distribution networks will have to be converted to hydrogen in the future – regardless of whether it is also used to heat private homes, which is currently considered unlikely on a large scale. “The distribution grids not only supply households, but also power plants and industrial companies that require process heat,” said Chairman Florian Feller.
The survey shows that the main potential application for hydrogen is process heat. In second and third place are the heating of buildings and electricity generation. However, whether hydrogen is economical for these applications will depend heavily on the retail price. The survey does not provide any information on this. The Transformation Plan expects the first hydrogen to be fed into the grid in most districts before 2030. A rather optimistic assumption, as Germany’s core hydrogen network, through which most of the hydrogen will be transported, will not be fully operational by then. mkr
Erdgas
Transformation: BDI sees investment need of 1.4 trillion euros by 2030
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) considers high investments and far-reaching structural reforms necessary in order to maintain Germany as an industrial location. Otherwise, around 20 percent of German industrial value creation will be at risk by 2030, according to a study presented on Tuesday by the Boston Consulting Group and the German Economic Institute on behalf of the BDI. According to the study, the proportion at risk is particularly high in coking plants and mineral oil processing at around 60 percent, in basic chemicals at 40 percent and in automotive manufacturing at 30 percent.
BDI President Siegfried Russwurm called the study a “loud wake-up call” for politicians. However, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck is likely to feel encouraged by many of the BDI’s demands – such as lower industrial electricity prices, which he was unable to achieve within the government, or the rapid development of the recently launched hydrogen infrastructure. The study also stresses that many of the problems were not caused by German politics alone – such as the demographic crisis, the rise in gas prices or growing protectionism. The BDI does not call for scaling back the climate targets, nor does it agree with the current criticism of the combustion engine ban. Instead, it notes: “The future of the automotive sector depends more than anything else on whether German manufacturers are also successful in electromobility.”
The BDI calls for an “industrial policy agenda” to strengthen the German economy. This includes lower energy prices through targeted relief, cutting red tape, faster digitalization and infrastructure modernization. The Federation estimates the additional investment required for this at around 1.4 trillion euros by 2030, with a third coming from the state. To finance this, the BDI initially calls for prioritization and more efficient use of funds; once this has been achieved, the Federation considers additional debt in the form of earmarked special funds justifiable. mkr
Transformation
IVA study: Innovations could significantly reduce agricultural GHG emissions
According to a study commissioned by the German Agricultural Industry Association (IVA), technological innovations could prevent up to 40 percent of agricultural emissions. The study authors examined four methods that they believe offer potential for reducing GHG emissions: fertilizer production using green ammonia, site-specific fertilization, the use of nitrification inhibitors and the use of new genomic techniques (NGT) in plant breeding.
The authors stress that reducing GHG emissions in land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) also plays a vital role in climate action from a global perspective. The sector currently accounts for around 22 percent of total global emissions.
Based on their findings, they have formulated five political recommendations:
Legally regulating the use of nitrification inhibitors;
Promoting new plant breeding techniques (such as CRISPR/Cas);
Green ammonia use in fertilizer production;
Promoting the use of digital technologies in the use of mineral fertilizers;
Supporting research into additional GHG reduction processes.
IVA President: ‘Innovations are crucial for GHG reduction’
IVA President Michael Wagner emphasized the importance of innovation for climate action. “In order for technological solutions to improve the overall climate footprint, politicians must now create the necessary framework conditions for a greener agriculture,” he demanded.
Agricultural production must become “more efficient,” said Wagner. “But this will not be possible without additional costs.” In order to increase the potential of agriculture, energy prices for renewable energies would have to fall. Regarding the use of NGT, he said: “We are very much in favor of making practical and accelerated breeding possible.”
One of the disputes in the expert dialog after the press conference was whether the use of nitrification inhibitors in agriculture had already been sufficiently researched. Luisa Rölke, head of the “Climate Protection, Climate Adaptation, Water” department at the Federal Ministry of Agriculture (BMEL), criticized that the Ministry still saw a need for research in this area and that the existing studies were insufficient. ag
The next state election in Germany is just ten days away, and migration and populism will be at the heart of the vote. And just like Saxony and Thuringia, the climate crisis has practically disappeared from the public debate in Brandenburg. But not for us: We present the Brandenburg climate check with an overview of what has worked there and where efforts have failed. Even if the political parties ignore the issue, the next record-breaking summer or heavy rainfall is certain.
This is certainly also due to the fact that although the world has decided to move away from fossil fuels, coal is currently making a comeback. India and China in particular continue to expand the dirtiest source of energy, while other countries phase it out. We have all the details on this complex process in today’s issue.
And what happens when effective climate policy is prevented or delayed is once again a topic in this Climate Table: Why is Latin America shrouded in smoke? What could happen if transport emissions are not reduced quickly? What lawsuits can corporations expect? And how can we best plan to adapt to climate change?
Your
Bernhard Pötter
Feature
Brandenburg climate check: Why the government plan leaves many open questions
The decision on climate action in Brandenburg is made here: Jänschwalde lignite-fired power plant.
Climate issues have traditionally had a difficult status in the German state of Brandenburg. The energy infrastructure is based on climate-damaging lignite-fired power generation, and the state has one of the highest per capita CO2 emissions in Germany at around 18 tons. Although agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate extremes and the “Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research” in the state capital has been providing world-renowned science on climate policy since 1992, the state’s climate institutions are weak: For example, it has only been four years since the state government officially started dealing with climate action in the Ministry of the Environment. Climate policy hardly played a role in the election campaign that is now ending. It remains to be seen whether the Green Party, which pushed the issue in the government, will be part of the next government or even in the state parliament.
Leading in CO2 emissions and reduction
On the other hand, Brandenburg is also traditionally one of the leading states in Germany when it comes to reducing greenhouse gases: Official figures show that emissions have fallen by 57 percent since 1990, from 125 million tons to just under 50 million. The main reasons for this substantial contribution to the climate are the closure of many lignite-fired power plants after the reunification of Germany and the expansion of renewables. Today, Brandenburg exports its electricity primarily to Berlin – however, the resulting carbon emissions are attributed to Brandenburg. The situation is similar for transport: The Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER), which many Berliners use, burdens Brandenburg’s carbon footprint with its emissions.
The state government believes it is well on track with its emissions estimate for 2023, but also faces challenges:
The government estimates a “historic decline” in emissions for 2023, even below the level of the Covid pandemic – a reduction of 4.5 percent compared to the previous year.
However, this means the state is well behind the national trend 2023 of minus ten percent.
The government estimates the climate-related damage from Brandenburg’s emissions at ten billion euros for 2023.
With 8.7 gigawatts of installed capacity, Brandenburg is the second-largest wind state in Germany after Lower Saxony. According to the government, this, combined with electricity from photovoltaics, has avoided almost 15 million tonnes of CO2 – and thus, according to this calculation, damage amounting to 800 million euros.
Since 2000: CO2 reduction only due to external factors
Lignite is also central to Brandenburg’s climate footprint: The two lignite-fired power plants in Jänschwalde and Schwarze Pumpe alone account for 44 percent of all emissions.
Ecological Economy Research (IÖW) reported that Brandenburg’s emissions between 2000 and 2018 improved practically only due to external factors: the nationwide coal phase-out, the impact of the pandemic and the economic downturn. With just three percent of Germany’s population and only 2.2 percent of Germany’s economic power, Brandenburg remains responsible for seven percent of Germany’s emissions. The report commissioned by the green-led Ministry of the Environment in Potsdam calls for the state to “take action beyond the coal phase-out.”
Climate plan: Hoping for a coal phase-out
Following lengthy internal coordination, two years later than planned, the state government presented its “climate plan” in March 2024. Like the national government, it sets net zero by 2045 at the latest and lays down ambitious targets of minus 74 percent for 2030 and minus 96 percent for 2040. Like the recently watered-down Federal Climate Change Act (KSG), Brandenburg has set reduction targets for each sector for 2030, 2040 and 2045. However, unlike the KSG, the climate plan does not have a legally enshrined “readjustment mechanism” if the targets are exceeded.
Daniela Setton, Head of the Climate Protection and Sustainability Department at the Brandenburg Ministry of Agriculture, Environment and Climate Protection (MLUK), sees good prospects for achieving the 2030 target: “Particularly with the planned closure of further lignite units in Jänschwalde under the coal phase-out and the expected measures in line with the decarbonization targets at the industrial companies Arcelor Mittal, Cemex and the PCK refinery in Schwedt, we can close the remaining 18-million-ton gap until the reduction to 32 million tons,” she told Table. Briefings.
The country would then face even greater challenges in the following decade: The building and transport sectors would have to be tackled just as consistently as improving the climate footprint of land use, such as the rewetting of peatlands: The sector is supposed to serve as a carbon sink, but currently emits around 2.5 million tons of CO2 each year.
Climate Alliance: Too little and too late
Although the Brandenburg Climate Alliance sees the “climate plan” as progress, it says it is too late, not binding and not ambitious enough. The plan was initially meant to be ready by the end of 2022, but was shelved for a long time and then watered down by the State Chancellery. Franziska Sperfeld from the German NGO BUND praises the state’s mobility law, which, for the first time, lays out “the steps and intermediate steps for a transport system of the future.” However, “many measures are not taken into account” in the state’s climate plan, and there are no answers to the “climate action gap between 2030 and 2040,” she told Table.Briefings. She said it was clear that the government under SPD Minister-President Dietmar Woidke “does not fully support climate policy.”
Several examples show how controversial climate issues are in the state government of the SPD, CDU and Greens:
In early August, at the end of the election campaign, Minister-President Woidke proposed using CCS in neighboring Poland to reduce Brandenburg’s emissions (which is not yet legally possible) without consulting the responsible environment ministry.
Brandenburg is the only German state without a climate agency to coordinate measures and funding; the Energy Agency performs part of this task.
The climate plan is a government agreement and not a law. The next state government (especially under the influence of the far-right AfD, which denies man-made climate change) could amend it more easily than a law passed by the state parliament. Legal action against it is also more difficult.
According to the government, funding for the roughly 80 measures laid out in the climate plan, primarily in the areas of transport, building refurbishment, and public investment, has “not yet been fully secured.”
How crisis-proof is the climate plan?
For department head Setton, the climate plan is a major step forward and is well anchored in administrative action despite not being a law: “The plan is bindingly anchored in the departments because it incorporates the state’s strategies in energy, industry and mobility. This means that they are all part of the climate plan; anyone who wanted to change this would call all these plans into question.”
She has a different concern concerning climate policy: “We need more jobs and staff tospeed up planning for the expansion of renewables or infrastructure such as pipelines and grids or the decarbonization of the industry. However, this is difficult to get because skilled labor is scarce and the private sector pays better.”
Climate policy
Mobilität
New power plants: How India and China sabotage the global coal phase-out
India plans to invest another 7.2 billion euros in new coal-fired power plants. The expansion is being fuelled by the high energy demand.
Ten months after the COP28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels, important countries continue to prioritize coal – and global consumption is on the rise. India recently announced plans to invest 7.2 billion euros in new coal-fired power plants over the next few years. At least 4.7 gigawatts of new capacity will be built near mines, in addition to expansion plans for 88 gigawatts of conventional power plants – mainly coal – by 2032.
A phase-out is only apparent in some pioneering countries. Contrary to all climate targets, coal consumption grew rapidly in India, China and worldwide last year. 2023 was a record year for coal – global consumption rose by 2.3 percent.
Pioneer and slower coal growth
And yet there is progress: “The pipeline of new coal-fired power plants is slowly being reduced and the growth momentum is slowing down,” says coal expert Jan Steckel from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC). Steckel is “cautiously optimistic about the global coal phase-out” as costs of renewable energies and storage continue to fall and some pioneers scale back their share of coal in the electricity mix.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world is on the verge of a coal peak thanks to the energy transition and lower demand for coal in the steel sector. However, in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2030, coal-fired electricity should only make up four percent of the global electricity mix instead of 35 percent (2023). This poses immense challenges for India and China in particular.
India: Decades away from the coal peak
China and India now account for two-thirds of global coal-fired power generation. Energy demand in both countries has risen massively in recent years, complicating the phase-out of coal.
India finds itself in an energy dilemma:
The IEA forecasts that India’s energy demand will grow at the fastest rate of any country or world region over the next three decades due to its development. Electricity demand is growing by around eight percent annually. To this end, India is building so-called “ultra-supercritical power plants,” which are supposed to cause fewer CO2 emissions. However, Steckel considers this more of a “sham debate.” The MCC expert says that “the high levels of CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will hardly be reduced.”
India is one of the largest coal producers in the world. When the country recently produced more than one billion tons of coal and lignite for the first time, Prime Minister Modi praised this as a “remarkable feat.”
The expansion of renewables is stalling. Less than 15 GW of new wind and solar capacity has been built in each of the last two years. Experts warn that 50 to 60 GW should be installed each year. Despite India’s enormous potential for wind power, only four percent of the country’s electricity mix comes from this source. A glimmer of hope: India built 14.9 gigawatts of new solar capacity in the first half of 2024, more than in any previous half-year period.
To reach a 1.5-degree-compatible path, India would have to turn its electricity sector upside down: The share of coal in the electricity mix would have to fall from 72 percent to between 17 and 23 percent by 2030. Renewables would have to increase their share from 21 percent to between 68 and 74 percent. However, Rohit Chandra, energy expert at the Indian Institute of Technology, is pessimistic. He expects coal to continue to play a major role for several decades. According to the IEA, India’s coal demand in 2050 could be ten percent above the current level.
However, India is a special case. A significant part of the population still lives in poverty. “Denying these people access to cheap energy is politically unfeasible and would also be ethically questionable. But India’s government is also interested in reducing emissions because the country is particularly affected by the climate crisis,” says Steckel.
China: Renewables displace coal – but not fast enough
China would also have to change its energy system to emission-free alternatives much more quickly to keep the global climate targets achievable. Although the country is making some progress, it has a particular obligation as the largest consumer of coal.
According to the IEA, China consumed six percent more coal in 2023 than in the previous year.
At the same time, the share of coal in the electricity mix has fallen. Although electricity demand continues to rise, renewable energies can now cover a large proportion of the additional demand.
Although China continues to build new coal-fired power plants, capacity utilization has fallen in recent years. The IEA expects the People’s Republic to reach its coal-fired power generation peak around 2025. A turnaround is also foreseeable in the steel sector.
Although China plans to reduce its coal consumption between 2025 and 2030, it has yet to set any absolute targets. In order to keep the 1.5-degree target achievable, China would have to reduce the share of coal in its electricity mix to between seven and 13 percent by 2030 – in May 2024, it was still at 53 percent. There is little to suggest that such a rapid phase-out will succeed.
Steckel is also relatively optimistic about China. “In China, too, the coal phase-out could happen faster than one would expect for economic reasons.” The MCC expert assumes that “new coal-fired power plants will be written off in well under 40 years.”
Among the G7 countries, Japan is the most persistent supporter of coal:
Japan recently opened two new coal-fired power plant units.
According to government figures, coal will still account for 19 percent of the electricity mix in 2030 – it currently accounts for around 30 percent. Observers even consider the 19 percent mark too ambitious.
A 1.5-degree path would require Japan to generate only one to two percent of its electricity from coal by 2030.
Pioneer: Significant reduction in just a few years
Several frontrunner countries show how quickly coal consumption can be reduced:
Within six years, the UK has reduced the proportion of coal in the electricity mix from 36 percent to just over two percent in 2019 and replaced it mainly with wind energy. The last British coal-fired power plant will be taken off the grid in 2024.
Greece has reduced its share of coal from 51 to 10 percent (2022) within eight years and replaced it with natural gas and renewables.
Denmark achieved a reduction of 44 percentage points between 2006 and 2022 and is currently at just over ten percent coal-fired electricity.
Spain, Portugal, the USA, Israel and Germany also quickly reduced the proportion of coal in their electricity mix. However, the USA and Israel primarily use natural gas as a substitute. Coal still accounts for 16 percent in the USA and almost 27 percent in Germany.
According to Eurostat, European coal consumptionfell by more than 100 million tons to 351 million tons in 2023. However, consumption had increased in the two years before that.
The share of coal in Chile’s electricity mix first rose rapidly in the 2000s, only to fall again quickly after 2016 (43 percent). By 2023, the share of coal had more than halved to 16.7 percent. This success is attributed to higher emissions standards and trading.
Steckel said these successes were “primarily due to economic reasons.” Coal has been “replaced by cheap fracking gas” in the USA. “In the UK, there has been a national CO2 price in the energy sector for many years, which has made coal more expensive.”
China
Coal phase-out
COP28
Energy transition
Kohle
Events
Sept. 10-14, New York UN summitGeneral Assembly of the United Nations The United Nations General Debate will be held in New York for the 79th time. Part of it is the “Summit for the Future” (20-23 September), which will focus more on climate issues.Info
Sept. 17, 9 a.m., Berlin Conference Potential of urban energy efficiency in France and Germany Cities are at the heart of the energy transition in more than one way. On the one hand, 65% of the world’s energy needs are generated in cities. On the other hand, due to the geographical concentration of suppliers and consumers and the multitude of local actors, cities offer great potential for the development of global energy concepts and the exploitation of synergies. The event is aimed at all players in the energy sector in France and Germany. It will take place in Berlin and will be translated simultaneously into French and German.Info
Sept. 17-18, Heidelberg Congress17th Federal Congress on National Urban Development Policy The congress will look at the diverse collaborations in urban development and the major transformation tasks of climate change, digitalization, housing, social cohesion, co-production and the common good as well as the energy and mobility transition.Info
News
Climate in Numbers: Climate activists warn of driving bans
The German transport sector will face driving bans and car decommissioning in the 2030s if the government continues to fail to reduce emissions in the sector. This is the conclusion of a new study commissioned by Greenpeace and Germanwatch that is available to Table.Briefings in advance. The study states that the later the German government takes action, the more drastic the necessary interventions will be.
The authors from the New Climate Institute have analyzed several scenarios. If the government continued to act slowly, it would have to take severe measures from 2030 onwards, as emissions would have to fall almost twice as fast (by 18.2 million tons per year) than if immediate measures were taken:
Between 2030 and 2035, 4.8 million electric cars would have to be sold every year, which would present the car industry with “major challenges.” Over one million gasoline cars would have to be “decommissioned early” every year.
An “abruptly and extremely high CO2 price” would be necessary, primarily affecting lower income groups and “would be tantamount to a driving ban for this group.”
An annual investment in the rail infrastructure of around 25 billion euros would be required.
The German national budget would be “extremely” burdened in the 2030s.
Other sectors can hardly make up for missed targets
However, if decisive action were taken immediately, emissions in the transport sector would have to be reduced by 10.3 million tons annually. Necessary measures would include
Reduction of emissions-causing subsidies
Introduction of a speed limit
Annual investment in rail infrastructure of around 20 billion euros
A “rapidly rising CO2 price to a high level” of around 250 euros per tonne of CO2 in 2030
Two to 2.5 million new EVs would have to be registered every year, displacing gasoline cars, corresponding to “around 70 to 90 percent of new car registrations in 2023.”
The authors warn that other sectors could not compensate for the transport sector’s failure to meet its targets. They argue that the use of e-fuels for the national transport sector is also not an option, as they are needed in other sectors (aviation and shipping) where high prices are paid because there are hardly any other climate action measures. However, the authors are also optimistic: “With sufficient political will, nothing stands in the way of the rapid implementation of ambitious climate action measures in the transport sector.” nib
Climate protection
E-Fuels
Electromobility
Transport policy
Transport turnaround
Verkehrswende
Wildfires: Why half of South America is shrouded in smoke
The South American wildfire season usually reaches its peak at this time of year. But this year, the fires in Bolivia and parts of Brazil are worse than they have been since at least 2003, reports Copernicus. The resulting emissions in Bolivia and the Brazilian states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Amazonas are “exceptionally high.” Many of the fires are started by humans to make room for cattle pastures and fields. However, their spread is being fueled by a record drought. Three of the six large natural areas on Brazilian land – the Amazon, the Pantanal wetlands and the Cerrado – are affected.
Lula: ‘We cannot destroy what we depend on’
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited the Amazon region on Tuesday to get a first-hand picture of the crisis. He said that things seemed to be getting worse every year, according to The Guardian. “We must solve this problem, otherwise humanity will destroy our planet. We cannot destroy what we depend on for our lives.”
Nevertheless, Brazil plans to expand domestic oil and gas production under Lula. Environmental organizations have also called on Lula’s government to show more climate leadership within the G20 – Brazil currently holds the presidency. The background: The promise to “transition away from fossil fuels” has apparently been removed from the draft for a joint G20 climate communiqué. The NGOs are now calling for Brazil to push for it to be reinstated. Maria Victoria Emanuelli, campaigner at 350.org, called on Lula to pressure rich countries to fairly finance the transition to renewables. ae
Amazonas
Energy paper: How the CDU wants to reduce electricity costs
The German Christian Democrats (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) aim to achieve net zero emissions at a lower cost. Deputy parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn has outlined how this is to be achieved in a five-page paper, which was approved by the executive committee of the parliamentary group last week and is available to Table.Briefings. “Without a cost transition towards greater efficiency, the energy transition will fail,” it says. It proposes improving the coordination of the expansion of grids and renewable energies. When expanding the electricity grids, the CDU/CSU wants to “generally” rely on overhead power lines instead of expensive underground cables; the latter were once introduced primarily due to pressure from CDU/CSU-governed federal states.
The paper prominently calls for “greater technological openness.” Instead of focusing primarily on solar and wind energy, Spahn calls for greater use of bioenergy and hydropower. However, this is somewhat at odds with the call for cost efficiency: At 19 cents per kilowatt hour, the EEG remuneration for electricity from biomass is around three times as high as for electricity from wind and large solar power plants. Large hydropower plants produce comparatively cheap electricity, but according to the Federal Environment Agency, the potential in Germany is already “largely tapped.”
More technological openness required in all areas
The paper also calls for more technological openness regarding “heating and heating technologies”; what exactly this means for the future of the Building Energy Act remains unclear. The party is clearly still struggling to find a position here. After the CDU initially heavily criticized the amendment to the law, which assigns a central role to heat pumps, party leader Friedrich Merz expressed the hope in June that many more heat pumps would be installed compared to the current number – which is likely to be complicated by reversing the amendment to the law.
The two parties are calling for a larger role for the capture, storage and utilization of carbon dioxide (CCS/CCU). The scope of application for these technologies should be “expanded.” As the German government also wants to enable the use of CCS for industrial processes and gas-fired power plants, this is likely to refer primarily to its use in coal-fired power plants. However, this is considered extremely unrealistic for both technical and economic reasons.
The CDU/CSU promises consumers significantly lower electricity costs: According to the paper, the CO2 revenue should reduce the electricity tax to the EU minimum and significantly grid fees. Spahn sees this relief as a quick and efficient alternative to climate money, which the German government “failed” to introduce. The paper did not specify how the subsidy programs for industry and consumers will be financed – which have so far been paid for from CO2 revenues. mkr
CCS
CDU/CSU
Climate protection
Electricity price
Energy transition
Fossil energies: Three times more lawsuits against oil, gas and coal companies
Since the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, the number of new climate lawsuits filed annually against the largest oil, gas and coal companies has almost tripled. This is the conclusion of the latest report “Big Oil in Court,” jointly compiled by Zero Carbon Analytics and Oil Change International. According to the report, at least 86 court cases are currently pending against oil companies such as BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, RWE, Shell and TotalEnergies. The analysis only examined lawsuits against major oil, gas and coal producers. Other legal actions, such as those against car manufacturers, banks or states, were not included.
Most of the lawsuits examined – 38 percent – demand compensation from the companies for climate damage. The report estimates that ExxonMobil, Shell and BP alone are each responsible for at least one trillion US dollars in damages. This figure shows the extent of the financial risks companies could face if the lawsuits are successful. Compensation claims are increasing because researchers are increasingly able to attribute individual extreme weather events to greenhouse gas emissions. One example is the lawsuit brought against RWE by the Peruvian mountain guide Saúl Luciano Lliuya.
16 percent of the cases concern allegedly misleading advertising. Twelve percent of the lawsuits are aimed at forcing the defendants to reduce their emissions. This includes a groundbreaking court case from the Netherlands. In it, Shell was obliged in 2021 to reduce its emissions by 45 percent by 2030. The appeal proceedings are currently underway and a decision could be made this fall.
Assessment by DUH
Environmental Action Germany (DUH) has been particularly busy filing complaints against misleading advertising for allegedly climate-neutral products. However, its legal actions are not only directed against oil companies, but also against retail companies such as dm or Netto, airlines such as Eurowings, computer manufacturers such as Apple and sporting goods manufacturers such as Adidas. So far, it has filed 92 lawsuits, DUH explained in an interim report presented on Tuesday. At 48, most of these have ended with the companies issuing a cease-and-desist declaration. Eleven cases are currently before court.
DUH has announced that it will increase its legal action against misleading advertising claiming climate neutrality. It calls on the German government to ban such advertising. ae
Klimaschäden
EU Court of Auditors warns: Recovery fund less green than hoped for
According to the EU Commission, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (ARF) will use €276 billion for the ecological transformation, which is 42.5 percent of the total ARF funds. A report by the European Court of Auditors now warns that the actual amount is likely to be at least €34.5 billion lower. The Court of Auditors’ report is the second in two weeks to criticize the methodology of the ARF.
The discrepancy is due to different climate coefficients – this is the proportion of a measure that passes as a climate measure. The EU Commission assesses expenditure according to its contribution to the goal of ecological transformation with a climate coefficient of 100 percent (for targeted climate measures), 40 percent (for measures with a significant positive impact) or 0 percent (for measures with no significant climate impact). The Court of Auditors criticizes that the Commission uses too high a climate coefficient for the evaluation of some expenditure categories, which would artificially increase the total amount for climate-relevant expenditure.
For example, the Court of Auditors argues that the construction of new high-efficiency buildingsshould havea climate coefficient of 0 percent – not 40 percent, as stipulated in the ARF. The Court of Auditors also criticizes the coefficients for railroad infrastructure and electricity grids as too high. The EU Commission defends its assessment in a statement. The climate coefficients are specified in the ARF and cannot be changed by the Commission.
No reporting on actual expenses
The Court of Auditors also criticizes the lack of meaningful milestones and target values for climate-related investments in the ARF. In addition, it is difficult to assess how much the ARF actually contributes to ecological change, partly because there is no reporting on actual expenditure.
The Commission defends the lack of reporting by stating that it is not required in the ARF regulation. In 2028, the Commission will examine the effectiveness of the ARF’s environmental expenditures in more detail in an ex-post evaluation.
Despite all the criticism, Joëlle Elvinger, who is responsible for the Court of Auditors’ report, says that the ARF, “if properly implemented, could significantly accelerate the achievement of the EU’s ambitiousclimate targets“. jaa
Wiederaufbaufonds
Hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants: How the tendering process should work
The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) was unable to present the power plant strategy before the summer break, as originally planned. However, on the third day after the summer break, it did: On Wednesday, the BMWK publishedthe long-awaited details for the tender for hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants. These will now be discussed with the industry as part of a consultation process before being finalized early next year.
As a first step, power plants with an output of 5 gigawatts will be put out to tender starting in early 2025. They will be built primarily in southern Germany and must run entirely on hydrogen by the start of the eighth year of operation at the latest; additional power plants with a capacity of 0.5 gigawatts are to use hydrogen exclusively from the outset in order to gain experience and accelerate the market ramp-up. In addition, existing plants with 2 gigawatts are to be converted to use hydrogen. There are also plans to invite tenders for long-term storage facilities with a capacity of 0.5 gigawatts.
On the one hand, operators will receive a subsidy for the construction costs of the power plants; how much will be determined as part of the tendering process. On the other hand, they will be reimbursed for the additional costs of using hydrogen compared to natural gas for 800 full-load hours in each of the first four years. This will be financed from the Climate and Transformation Fund. The BMWK currently estimates the total cost to be around 15 billion euros. In a second step, an additional 5 gigawatts of hydrogen-capable gas-fired power plants are to be put out to tender; these are to be financed via the planned capacity market, the details of which are still being worked out.
In total, the BMWK plans envisage the tendering of 13 gigawatts of climate-neutral secured capacity. This is less than the 17 to 21 gigawatts mentioned in the Federal Network Agency’s latest monitoring report as a prerequisite for the coal phase-out in 2030; however, the Ministry expects a further 5 gigawatts to be created in the form of combined heat and power plants; these will be funded separately and must be planned in such a way that they can later be converted to hydrogen without great effort. mkr
Strommarkt
Hydrogen: Grid operators report high interest from industrial customers
Industrial customers currently connected to the natural gas grid are very interested in using hydrogen in the future. This is shown by the Gas Grid Area Transformation Plan 2024 presented on Wednesday. To determine future demand, 252 gas network operators, who operate 80 percent of the distribution networks, surveyed 3,540 large industrial customers. Of these, around two-thirds indicated an interest in purchasing hydrogen in the future. Among particularly large customers with a consumption of more than 100 million kilowatt hours per year, the figure was as high as 95 percent.
The gas network operators who are part of the “H2 vor Ort” initiative conclude that a large proportion of the distribution networks will have to be converted to hydrogen in the future – regardless of whether it is also used to heat private homes, which is currently considered unlikely on a large scale. “The distribution grids not only supply households, but also power plants and industrial companies that require process heat,” said Chairman Florian Feller.
The survey shows that the main potential application for hydrogen is process heat. In second and third place are the heating of buildings and electricity generation. However, whether hydrogen is economical for these applications will depend heavily on the retail price. The survey does not provide any information on this. The Transformation Plan expects the first hydrogen to be fed into the grid in most districts before 2030. A rather optimistic assumption, as Germany’s core hydrogen network, through which most of the hydrogen will be transported, will not be fully operational by then. mkr
Erdgas
Transformation: BDI sees investment need of 1.4 trillion euros by 2030
The Federation of German Industries (BDI) considers high investments and far-reaching structural reforms necessary in order to maintain Germany as an industrial location. Otherwise, around 20 percent of German industrial value creation will be at risk by 2030, according to a study presented on Tuesday by the Boston Consulting Group and the German Economic Institute on behalf of the BDI. According to the study, the proportion at risk is particularly high in coking plants and mineral oil processing at around 60 percent, in basic chemicals at 40 percent and in automotive manufacturing at 30 percent.
BDI President Siegfried Russwurm called the study a “loud wake-up call” for politicians. However, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck is likely to feel encouraged by many of the BDI’s demands – such as lower industrial electricity prices, which he was unable to achieve within the government, or the rapid development of the recently launched hydrogen infrastructure. The study also stresses that many of the problems were not caused by German politics alone – such as the demographic crisis, the rise in gas prices or growing protectionism. The BDI does not call for scaling back the climate targets, nor does it agree with the current criticism of the combustion engine ban. Instead, it notes: “The future of the automotive sector depends more than anything else on whether German manufacturers are also successful in electromobility.”
The BDI calls for an “industrial policy agenda” to strengthen the German economy. This includes lower energy prices through targeted relief, cutting red tape, faster digitalization and infrastructure modernization. The Federation estimates the additional investment required for this at around 1.4 trillion euros by 2030, with a third coming from the state. To finance this, the BDI initially calls for prioritization and more efficient use of funds; once this has been achieved, the Federation considers additional debt in the form of earmarked special funds justifiable. mkr
Transformation
IVA study: Innovations could significantly reduce agricultural GHG emissions
According to a study commissioned by the German Agricultural Industry Association (IVA), technological innovations could prevent up to 40 percent of agricultural emissions. The study authors examined four methods that they believe offer potential for reducing GHG emissions: fertilizer production using green ammonia, site-specific fertilization, the use of nitrification inhibitors and the use of new genomic techniques (NGT) in plant breeding.
The authors stress that reducing GHG emissions in land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) also plays a vital role in climate action from a global perspective. The sector currently accounts for around 22 percent of total global emissions.
Based on their findings, they have formulated five political recommendations:
Legally regulating the use of nitrification inhibitors;
Promoting new plant breeding techniques (such as CRISPR/Cas);
Green ammonia use in fertilizer production;
Promoting the use of digital technologies in the use of mineral fertilizers;
Supporting research into additional GHG reduction processes.
IVA President: ‘Innovations are crucial for GHG reduction’
IVA President Michael Wagner emphasized the importance of innovation for climate action. “In order for technological solutions to improve the overall climate footprint, politicians must now create the necessary framework conditions for a greener agriculture,” he demanded.
Agricultural production must become “more efficient,” said Wagner. “But this will not be possible without additional costs.” In order to increase the potential of agriculture, energy prices for renewable energies would have to fall. Regarding the use of NGT, he said: “We are very much in favor of making practical and accelerated breeding possible.”
One of the disputes in the expert dialog after the press conference was whether the use of nitrification inhibitors in agriculture had already been sufficiently researched. Luisa Rölke, head of the “Climate Protection, Climate Adaptation, Water” department at the Federal Ministry of Agriculture (BMEL), criticized that the Ministry still saw a need for research in this area and that the existing studies were insufficient. ag
