There are moments when everything happens at once in climate policy: While southern Germany is sinking in extreme rain these days, people are dying and cities are flooding, the climate interim conference SB60 is starting in Bonn. Inside, progress is fought for millimeter by millimeter, while outside, the Rhine swells decimeters higher than usual. In Mexico, climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum is set to become the next president. At the same time, it becomes clear that the devastating rain floods in Brazil, which resulted in 160 deaths, have become more likely due to the climate crisis.
And what about our extreme rain? Strangely, there is a lack of major debate on its connection to the climate emergency – just a week before the EU elections, which will determine the direction of European climate action. Meanwhile, the Council of Experts on Climate Issues repeatedly certifies that the German government is doing too little for its own climate goals. And in Berlin, radical hunger strikers are putting themselves in mortal danger to force the government to declare a climate emergency.
Your Bernhard Pötter
Feature
SB60 in Bonn: The most exciting questions
From June 3 to 13, delegates from nearly every country are meeting in Bonn for SB60 to prepare for the World Climate Conference.
With a slight delay and a minor diplomatic incident between Germany and Russia, the June negotiations of the technical UN climate bodies (SB60) started in Bonn on Monday. The Russian delegation unexpectedly blocked the adoption of the agenda, evoking memories of last year when the Bonn conference operated without an agenda until the last minute due to a fierce “agenda fight”.
The reason, according to the Russian delegation, was that four of their diplomats had not received visas from Germany, the host country of the conference. The issue was resolved when Germany stated that the visas would be issued the same day. It was explained in the conference corridors that the visa applications were submitted late last week, implying that the processing time was intentionally too short.
UN chief calls for ‘serious progress’
Beyond such diplomatic maneuvers, the conference began with an urgent appeal from Simon Stiell, head of the UN Climate Secretariat. He reminded the approximately 6,000 delegates that there must be “serious progress toward real options” in the financial negotiations. On the road to Baku, “stumbles, pauses or detours” cannot be afforded.
In Bonn, critical decisions will be made on several topics. Observers will be closely watching the following questions:
What progress is being made toward the new climate finance goal, NCQG? The specific amount of the new finance goal and the details of who will pay how much and when will likely be decided no earlier than Baku. However, Bonn may reveal where the red lines are and what possible structures might look like. Ideally, the conference will agree on a draft text for further negotiations before COP29.
What lessons can be drawn from the 2023 “Global Stocktake”? In Bonn, there will be discussions on what was learned from the climate inventory process and how the results will be implemented. Specifically, who is planning with what investments to achieve a tripling of renewables and a doubling of efficiency by 2030? How do different countries define the compromise formula from Dubai, “transition away from fossil fuels”?
Finances, NDCs, CO2 markets
What are the COP29 presidency’s roadmap and strategy for the climate conference in Baku? So far, Azerbaijan has only made general statements, clearly siding with the fossil fuel industry lobby, even during the Petersberg Climate Dialogue. The public has also heard little about a clear strategy from the “troika” of COP leaders from Dubai, Baku, and Belém for next year.
There will be informal talks about the new climate plans, NDCs, which every country must submit next year. A coalition of frontrunners is pushing for the plans to specify the necessary investments for all key economic sectors. UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell already emphasized in March that the new NDCs are the “most important climate documents produced in this century”. Germany also wants to help transform NDCs into investment plans with an “Alliance of Changers”, aiming to elevate the issue to a high political level and provide technical assistance to developing countries in drafting their plans.
Negotiations on “carbon markets” will also continue. Many countries hope to raise urgently needed billions through voluntary CO2 licenses, for example, for forest protection or their national finances. Some now plan to sell emission reductions from the UN forest protection program REDD+ as CO2 certificates for carbon markets. Environmentalists like Carbon Market Watch warn that such licenses could lead to large-scale greenwashing.
Climate taxes, transparency, work framework
Not on the official agenda, but all the more interesting: How will the debate on global climate taxes or levies continue to finance the new climate finance goal? Brazil, holding the G20 presidency, has raised expectations with a “billionaire tax”. An independent task force has begun work on this at the spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF. Are there new ideas and alliances in Bonn?
The focus is also on transparency in national climate actions. According to the Paris Agreement, all countries must submit Biannual Transparency Reports (BTR) every two years, next due by the end of the year, to show how far they have come in implementing their climate goals. This aims to create transparency, comparability, and pressure. The first countries, Andorra and Guyana, have already submitted theirs.
Next steps are also pending for the two work programs on CO2 reduction (Mitigation Work Program, MWP) and Just Transition. Last year, disputes over the MWP paralyzed the Bonn conference. Ideally, by June 13, there will be two draft texts outlining guidelines and measures for future CO2 reduction discussions, as well as for the global and national transition away from fossil fuels.
Where is the money for the Secretariat’s work? Countries have ordered 20 percent more events for SB60 than last year, but they are still stingy when it comes to paying for these services. The Climate Secretariat’s budget remains inadequately funded, with many, especially large countries, in arrears by millions. Bonn would be a good opportunity to settle these debts.
Climate conference
Climate financing
Greenwashing
IWF
NDC
Translation missing.
Africa: What aid countries are demanding for their NDCs
The Olkaria IV Geothermal Plant in Naivasha (Kenya) is considered exemplary. However, countries in the Global South often lack the funds to finance the energy transition.
Climate financing and its significance for national climate plans (NDCs) will be a central topic at this year’s UN climate negotiations. Many developing and emerging countries cannot achieve their goals without massive financial and technical support (“conditioning”), whether it’s for expanding renewable energy, combating deforestation, adapting to climate change or establishing low-carbon infrastructure.
This overview by Table.Briefings shows what important African countries need to implement their NDCs with their own efforts and external assistance. Many plans have “conditioned” targets that can only be achieved if they receive external financial aid. This support was promised to them in Article 9 of the Paris Agreement. The plans set specific goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in key sectors such as transportation, agriculture and energy, and include adaptation strategies.
The gap between necessity and feasibility is particularly wide in many African countries. Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 requires a total investment of about two trillion dollars. The need and opportunities for financing are especially significant in Africa: The continent has large potentials for renewable energy, which are largely untapped. Africa represents about 20 percent of the world’s population but only 3 percent of CO2 emissions. The Climate Policy Initiative has compiled many important details in an informative overview.
Kenya’s NDC includes CO2 reduction and adaptation in various sectors, including energy, agriculture, and waste management. The total estimated costs until 2030 amount to 62 billion USD. About 21 percent of this, around 3.7 billion, is to be financed from domestic sources. For the remaining 79 percent, the country relies on international support in the form of finance, technology and capacity building.
Nigeria
In 2019/2020, Nigeria invested an average of 1.9 billion USD annually in climate-related activities. However, this is only 11 percent of the estimated 17.7 billion needed annually to achieve the “conditioned” target in the NDC: reducing emissions by 47 percent below the business-as-usual level by 2030. A significant aspect of Nigeria’s NDC is the energy sector. Nigeria launched an Energy Transition Plan (ETP) in August 2022, aimed at paving the way to the net-zero goal for 2060.
Egypt
To implement Egypt’s updated NDC, an estimated minimum of 246 billion USD is necessary. To mobilize these funds (196 billion for mitigation, 50 billion for adaptation), Egypt utilizes its partnerships and innovative financing strategies like blended finance and debt-for-climate swaps. A key initiative is the Nexus of Water Food and Energy (NWFE) platform, which bundles high-priority adaptation and climate protection projects and seeks critical investments of 14.7 billion USD. As the host country of COP27, Egypt committed in 2023 to reduce emissions by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario: 37 percent in the energy sector, 7 percent in transportation and 65 percent in the oil and gas sector – contingent on external support. Additionally, renewables should generate 42 percent of electricity by 2035.
Uganda
Uganda requires a total of 28.1 billion USD to implement its updated climate goals. The country has committed to mobilizing 4.1 billion USD (15 percent of the total costs) from its own domestic resources for climate protection measures. To fully implement the goals, 85 percent of the sum must come from external sources.
Morocco
Morocco estimates that the implementation of its 61 planned sectoral mitigation measures will require a total investment of 38.8 billion US dollars. Around half of these costs (21.5 billion) are expected to be financed by additional international support. The energy sector, which accounts for two thirds of national greenhouse gas emissions, is at the heart of the efforts.
Democratic Republic of Congo
The DRC estimates its financial needs for climate action measures in its NDC to be 48.68 billion USD. Of this, 25.6 billion is for mitigation and 23.08 billion for adaptation. The NDC commits to a 21 percent emission reduction from 2021 to 2030, with 19 percent of this achieved through external support and 2 percent through national efforts. The mitigation measures focus primarily on forestry, energy (including transportation), agriculture and waste management.
Ghana
Ghana estimates a total financing need of 22.6 billion USD to implement its NDC. The country has committed to 31 specific mitigation and adaptation measures across seven economic sectors. While the Ghanaian government has pledged 6.3 billion for these climate action programs, the remaining 16.3 billion must come from a combination of international public funds and private sector investments.
Senegal
The cost for fully implementing Senegal’s NDC is estimated at 13 billion USD, with 8.7 billion for mitigation measures and 4.3 billion for adaptation measures. Both areas are also dependent on international support. Additionally, there is the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), through which Senegal will receive a total of 2.5 billion Euros over three to five years to decarbonize its industry and economy. Meanwhile, Senegal continues to expand its gas production.
South Africa
To implement its NDC, South Africa seeks climate financing of at least 8 billion USD annually by 2030. The country is also reliant on foreign investments and international financial aid, invoking the Paris Agreement. In 2020, South Africa set a goal in its low-emission development strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Donor countries USA, France, the UK, Germany and the EU are financing a JETP with South Africa to support the transition from coal power to more renewables and efficiency with a total of 8.5 billion USD. However, the implementation of JETP continues to face internal challenges and resistance.
Africa
Climate financing
Climate policy
COP29
COP29
JETP
NDC
Translation missing.
Radical hunger strike: Why the climate movement is distancing itself
The camp of “Hunger Until You’re Honest” in front of the Ministry of Economic Affairs in Berlin: Activist Wolfgang Metzeler-Kick has been on hunger strike since early March.
The hunger strike by radical climate activists in Berlin’s government district has found little support in its form within the German climate movement. While many individuals and organizations in the climate scene sympathize with the hunger strikers’ motives, they reject their approach.
One hunger striker is now in life-threatening danger, according to his doctors. Since March 7, Wolfgang Metzeler-Kick has eaten nothing. He has now announced that starting Wednesday, he will also go on a thirst strike, abstaining from all calories and fluids. His blood sugar levels are already in a critical range, it is reported. The doctors who have been monitoring his strike no longer take medical responsibility. Despite this, Metzeler-Kick has stated he will not stop until the group “Hunger Until You’re Honest” achieves its goals: a government declaration by Olaf Scholz addressing the climate crisis and acknowledging the dangers publicly.
The group demands that Scholz declare that “human civilization is extremely threatened by the climate catastrophe”, that there is too much CO2 in the air, and that radical changes must be made. Earlier this week, “Hunger Until You’re Honest” slightly adjusted and softened their demands for the government declaration.
Well-known scientists like Stefan Rahmsdorf, Claudia Kemfert and Volker Quaschning, with Scientist for Future, support the activists’ demands. However, they made it clear as early as May that they do not consider the form of protest appropriate: “We want to assure the strikers that we share their concerns. We urge them not to risk their health and lives.” WWF also believes a hunger strike is not the right path: “Science says we still have the power to stop the climate crisis, and for that, we need all our strength,” says Heike Vesper, board member of WWF Germany.
Metzeler-Kick’s condition worsens
Two activists have already ended their strike. Four activists are still fasting in the camp set up in Berlin-Mitte between the climate action and transport ministries. In addition to Metzeler-Kick, Adrian Lack, who has been fasting for about a month, has also announced he will stop consuming fluids. Metzeler-Kick refuses to stop: “I feel bad, but I knew the protest would only work if it became really critical,” he says. Previously, he was active with the “Last Generation”.
Metzeler-Kick says he is ready to die for his protest. “If I wasn’t ready to go to the extreme, it would be pointless to start this,” he says. He does not want to watch the earth continue to heat up and “nothing being done about it”. His girlfriend is against his action and wishes he would stop, he says. His 14-year-old son knows that he cannot be persuaded otherwise.
Sitting in his tent, standing up is already difficult for the 49-year-old.
Metzeler-Kick is aware that his action is broadly rejected even among climate protectors: Climate activist Luisa Neubauer has also told him that the protest is ineffective. The German Environmental Aid (Deutsche Umwelthilfe) declined to comment on the strike when asked: “We, of course, observe the current developments with great concern but are not in direct contact with the strikers and therefore cannot comment on the current situation,” they said in an interview with Table.Briefings.
Germanwatch supports the activists’ concerns but also distances itself from the form of protest: “We support the cause of taking the climate crisis seriously – but hunger strikes are not a form of action Germanwatch chooses,” says Lutz Weischer, head of Germanwatch’s Berlin office. He worries that the worsening climate crisis will lead to more fear and despair among many citizens. Therefore, politics must implement and communicate more efficient climate action. Greenpeace stated that they generally do not comment on other groups and protests, including the hunger strike.
“It is very, very dramatic that people are putting their lives on the line in the fight against the climate crisis,” says Rolf Meyer, spokesperson for the “Last Generation”, to Table.Briefings. “This deserves full respect.” He also finds the demand for honesty from the group “Hunger Until You’re Honest” important. Absolute honesty is necessary for people to grasp the extent of the climate crisis. In September 2021, several activists went on hunger strike to force a conversation with the then chancellor candidates. They ended it after nearly a month but secured a public meeting with candidate Olaf Scholz. The “Last Generation” emerged from this strike.
Continuing without support from the climate movement
Metzeler-Kick is aware that the climate movement does not support the hunger strike. But that doesn’t matter to him, he assures. “There have to be individuals willing to make extreme sacrifices,” he says. He is in contact with various politicians by phone or through visits, but he won’t name names. Economy Minister Robert Habeck has visited the camp and spoken with him and the strikers.
None of this has led Metzeler-Kick to end the hunger strike. The strikers say they are waiting solely for a response from Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz commented on the hunger strike for the first time during a citizen dialogue at the Festival of Democracy at the end of May. His greatest wish is for the action to be ended. “It is a mistake to use violence against others, but also against oneself,” he says. He will not respond to the activists’ demands, according to his spokesperson.
Climate & Environment
Climate protection
Germany
News
Climate target 2030: Why the Expert Council doubts Habeck’s positive forecast
It was the positive surprise of the spring: Germany will likely achieve its climate target by 2030, announced Robert Habeck in mid-March, citing the latest projection report from the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). However, the joy was short-lived: On Monday, the Expert Council for Climate Issues, appointed by the federal government, contradicted this forecast. “In summary, we cannot confirm the cumulative target achievement for the years 2021 to 2030 as stated in the 2024 projection data. On the contrary, we expect a target miss,” said the council’s chairman, Hans-Martin Hennig.
The main reasons for the differing prognosis, according to the council’s report, include the fact that the massive cuts in the Climate and Transformation Fund (CTF) were not yet considered in the UBA’s forecast. Additionally, gas and CO2 prices are significantly lower than assumed in its calculations. As a result, emissions in the energy, building, and transportation sectors would decrease less than projected. The council also expects a significant shortfall in the goals after 2030, increasing year by year. Climate neutrality will not be achieved with the planned measures – not by the announced year 2045 nor at a later date.
BMKW interprets dispute as confirmation
The federal government is not immediately required to adopt additional measures based on the council’s assessment. The revised Climate Protection Act mandates these measures only if the forecast indicates a target miss for two consecutive years. “We still recommend reacting quickly rather than waiting for another target miss,” said Brigitte Knopf, the council’s deputy chair. The focus should be on the building and transportation sectors, where the gap is largest and where significant payments could be due to the EU burden-sharing requirements if targets are missed.
However, the federal government did not seem inclined to comply with this request on Monday. In a press release, it attempted to portray the council’s contradiction as a confirmation of its policy. “Only if we stay the course can we achieve the 2030 climate target,” quoted State Secretary Stefan Wenzel. The statement that the existing cuts in the CTF endanger the goal was reinterpreted by the BMWK to mean that it is crucial to “avoid further cuts”. According to the release, the government will only decide on new measures if a target miss is confirmed again next year. mkr
Robert Habeck
Climate change: Europeans’ fears for their lifestyle
Europeans view climate change as the biggest threat to their lifestyle over the next ten years. Forty percent of respondents ranked the climate crisis above issues such as artificial intelligence, pandemics and migration, according to a representative survey by the communications agency Finn Partners Research & Insights, commissioned by the Meliore Foundation.
Germans, too, consider the climate crisis as their biggest concern. Thirty-seven percent see it as a threat over the next ten years, followed by threats from migration and crime (both at 35 percent). More than half of Germans also believe that extreme weather events will influence their choice of residence in the next 20 years. Seventy-one percent are worried about future water supply and potential water shortages. Experts tell Table.Briefings that while drinking water supply is secure, it could become more expensive in the future.
Additionally, 61 percent of Germans think that the government should prioritize the future costs of climate change in its political decisions today. A recent Eurobarometer survey also showed that a large majority of people are dissatisfied with the EU’s climate policies. lb
Hochwasser
Klima & Umwelt
Thawing permafrost: Why it is not a global tipping point
Thawing permafrost is not a global climate tipping point, according to an international team of scientists. Permafrost soils cover about a quarter of the land surface in the Northern Hemisphere and store large amounts of carbon. When these soils thaw, microorganisms become active, releasing significant amounts of carbon in the form of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere.
In public discourse, there is a belief that permafrost might suddenly thaw more rapidly once a certain level of global warming is reached, potentially leading to a self-accelerating thawing process. However, there is no evidence for this, says Jan Nitzbon from the Alfred Wegener Institute at the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). “Even the estimated release of greenhouse gases would not lead to a global jump in warming at least until the end of the century. Therefore, portraying permafrost as a global tipping point is misleading.”
The scientists are not giving an all-clear, though. There are many smaller local and regional tipping points that will be crossed at different times and levels of warming. The worldwide thawing of permafrost progresses in step with global warming. “This means – contrary to what the image of a tipping point might suggest – there is no reassuring warming buffer that we can afford to exploit up to a threshold,” says Nitzbon. nib
Kipppunkte
Brazil: Climate change has doubled the likelihood of floods
Climate change has doubled the likelihood of the flooding that occurred in late April and early May in Brazil’s southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, according to a recent analysis by researchers at World Weather Attribution (WWA). Additionally, the rainfalls were intensified by the El Niño weather phenomenon, and the impacts were exacerbated by inadequate flood protection infrastructure.
While water levels in southern Germany are currently still rising in many areas, Brazil is already assessing the damage from this “climate disaster”. The floods affected more than 90 percent of Rio Grande do Sul, forced over 580,000 people to evacuate their homes, and resulted in at least 169 deaths. Dozens more are still missing. Poor sanitary conditions are now increasing the risk of infectious diseases.
Rainfall intensified by six to nine percent due to climate change
“The devastating impacts of such extreme events on people can only be minimized with adequate adaptation measures, including well-maintained flood protection infrastructure and proper urban planning,” says Regina Rodrigues, a climate researcher at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil.
According to the WWA analysis, the flood was an extremely rare event: Even under the current climate conditions, which are already warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius, such an event is expected only once every 100 to 250 years. The heavy rainfall was not only made twice as likely by climate change but also intensified by six to nine percent. With a global warming of two degrees, the likelihood of such events would double again. El Niño had a similar impact as climate change, making such heavy rain events two to five times more likely and three to ten percent more intense. kul
Hochwasser
India: At least 25,000 people suffer heatstroke amid deadly heatwaves
Due to the heatwaves that swept across India from March to May, nearly 25,000 people are suspected to have suffered heatstroke. The death toll stands at 56, as reported by local media based on government data. Including suspected cases, the total number of heat-related deaths in India could rise to 80, according to The Hindu newspaper.
In the capital city of Delhi and the nearby state of Rajasthan, temperatures soared to around 50 degrees Celsius. Concurrently, Cyclone Remal battered parts of eastern India, causing severe rainfall and resulting in the deaths of at least 14 people. The meteorological department has indicated that the current heatwave may abate by Wednesday. rtr/lb
Klima & Umwelt
Climate funding programs in business little known
Among German executives in German companies, important funding programs for climate action are hardly known. This was reported by transformation researcher Maja Göpel in the Table.Today podcast. The insight comes from a survey conducted by Göpel’s new initiative “Mission Wertvoll” in collaboration with the strategy consultancy Oliver Wyman among 164 top managers, which is set to be released this Tuesday. According to Göpel, while 57 percent of respondents consider the EU to be the relevant level for securing competitiveness, only 18 percent were familiar with important programs or funding initiatives in detail.
To make stronger progress in climate action, Göpel, known as the author of bestsellers such as “We can do better” (“Wir können auch anders”) and “Rethinking Our World” (“Unsere Welt neu denken”), advocates for greater networking among key stakeholders. With her foundation-funded initiative, established last year, she aims to facilitate better exchange between business actors and scientists. Additionally, climate issues should be more prominently featured in films and series through collaboration with directors and screenwriters. To defend climate action against populism and fossil interests, the “us vs. them” logic must be overcome. “We need to forge entirely new alliances,” says Göpel. You can listen to the podcast from 6 a.m. here. mkr
Climate protection
Company
Transformation
Energy transition: Where G7 and EU still need to catch up
The G7 countries are making progress in decarbonizing their electricity sectors. However, significant supply risks persist, particularly due to reliance on gas, according to an assessment by the environmental think tank E3G. Except for Japan, all G7 countries are on track to phase out coal by 2030 or are at least taking significant steps toward that goal, like Germany and the USA. However, there remains a significant gap in phasing out unabated natural gas. This increases dependence on “commercially unavailable technologies” such as CCS or hydrogen-capable gas power.
An analysis by the think tank Ember shows that since 2019, the EU’s energy transition has saved 30 to 40 billion euros in gas import expenses alone. This is highlighted in Ember’s energy policy review of the ending European legislative term. Overall, Europe has made rapid progress in expanding renewable energy sources. “The EU is now in a historic, sustained transition away from dependence on fossil fuels for electricity generation,” said Sarah Brown, Director of the Europe Program at Ember.
According to Ember’s analysis, the share of renewables in the EU’s electricity mix increased from 34 to 44 percent between 2019 and 2023. While Germany has increased its capacity most significantly in absolute terms, the success of green energy is based on broad growth across the EU27, Ember emphasized. For example, Latvia has quadrupled its renewable capacity, and Hungary has almost tripled it. ber
There are moments when everything happens at once in climate policy: While southern Germany is sinking in extreme rain these days, people are dying and cities are flooding, the climate interim conference SB60 is starting in Bonn. Inside, progress is fought for millimeter by millimeter, while outside, the Rhine swells decimeters higher than usual. In Mexico, climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum is set to become the next president. At the same time, it becomes clear that the devastating rain floods in Brazil, which resulted in 160 deaths, have become more likely due to the climate crisis.
And what about our extreme rain? Strangely, there is a lack of major debate on its connection to the climate emergency – just a week before the EU elections, which will determine the direction of European climate action. Meanwhile, the Council of Experts on Climate Issues repeatedly certifies that the German government is doing too little for its own climate goals. And in Berlin, radical hunger strikers are putting themselves in mortal danger to force the government to declare a climate emergency.
Your Bernhard Pötter
Feature
SB60 in Bonn: The most exciting questions
From June 3 to 13, delegates from nearly every country are meeting in Bonn for SB60 to prepare for the World Climate Conference.
With a slight delay and a minor diplomatic incident between Germany and Russia, the June negotiations of the technical UN climate bodies (SB60) started in Bonn on Monday. The Russian delegation unexpectedly blocked the adoption of the agenda, evoking memories of last year when the Bonn conference operated without an agenda until the last minute due to a fierce “agenda fight”.
The reason, according to the Russian delegation, was that four of their diplomats had not received visas from Germany, the host country of the conference. The issue was resolved when Germany stated that the visas would be issued the same day. It was explained in the conference corridors that the visa applications were submitted late last week, implying that the processing time was intentionally too short.
UN chief calls for ‘serious progress’
Beyond such diplomatic maneuvers, the conference began with an urgent appeal from Simon Stiell, head of the UN Climate Secretariat. He reminded the approximately 6,000 delegates that there must be “serious progress toward real options” in the financial negotiations. On the road to Baku, “stumbles, pauses or detours” cannot be afforded.
In Bonn, critical decisions will be made on several topics. Observers will be closely watching the following questions:
What progress is being made toward the new climate finance goal, NCQG? The specific amount of the new finance goal and the details of who will pay how much and when will likely be decided no earlier than Baku. However, Bonn may reveal where the red lines are and what possible structures might look like. Ideally, the conference will agree on a draft text for further negotiations before COP29.
What lessons can be drawn from the 2023 “Global Stocktake”? In Bonn, there will be discussions on what was learned from the climate inventory process and how the results will be implemented. Specifically, who is planning with what investments to achieve a tripling of renewables and a doubling of efficiency by 2030? How do different countries define the compromise formula from Dubai, “transition away from fossil fuels”?
Finances, NDCs, CO2 markets
What are the COP29 presidency’s roadmap and strategy for the climate conference in Baku? So far, Azerbaijan has only made general statements, clearly siding with the fossil fuel industry lobby, even during the Petersberg Climate Dialogue. The public has also heard little about a clear strategy from the “troika” of COP leaders from Dubai, Baku, and Belém for next year.
There will be informal talks about the new climate plans, NDCs, which every country must submit next year. A coalition of frontrunners is pushing for the plans to specify the necessary investments for all key economic sectors. UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell already emphasized in March that the new NDCs are the “most important climate documents produced in this century”. Germany also wants to help transform NDCs into investment plans with an “Alliance of Changers”, aiming to elevate the issue to a high political level and provide technical assistance to developing countries in drafting their plans.
Negotiations on “carbon markets” will also continue. Many countries hope to raise urgently needed billions through voluntary CO2 licenses, for example, for forest protection or their national finances. Some now plan to sell emission reductions from the UN forest protection program REDD+ as CO2 certificates for carbon markets. Environmentalists like Carbon Market Watch warn that such licenses could lead to large-scale greenwashing.
Climate taxes, transparency, work framework
Not on the official agenda, but all the more interesting: How will the debate on global climate taxes or levies continue to finance the new climate finance goal? Brazil, holding the G20 presidency, has raised expectations with a “billionaire tax”. An independent task force has begun work on this at the spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF. Are there new ideas and alliances in Bonn?
The focus is also on transparency in national climate actions. According to the Paris Agreement, all countries must submit Biannual Transparency Reports (BTR) every two years, next due by the end of the year, to show how far they have come in implementing their climate goals. This aims to create transparency, comparability, and pressure. The first countries, Andorra and Guyana, have already submitted theirs.
Next steps are also pending for the two work programs on CO2 reduction (Mitigation Work Program, MWP) and Just Transition. Last year, disputes over the MWP paralyzed the Bonn conference. Ideally, by June 13, there will be two draft texts outlining guidelines and measures for future CO2 reduction discussions, as well as for the global and national transition away from fossil fuels.
Where is the money for the Secretariat’s work? Countries have ordered 20 percent more events for SB60 than last year, but they are still stingy when it comes to paying for these services. The Climate Secretariat’s budget remains inadequately funded, with many, especially large countries, in arrears by millions. Bonn would be a good opportunity to settle these debts.
Climate conference
Climate financing
Greenwashing
IWF
NDC
Translation missing.
Africa: What aid countries are demanding for their NDCs
The Olkaria IV Geothermal Plant in Naivasha (Kenya) is considered exemplary. However, countries in the Global South often lack the funds to finance the energy transition.
Climate financing and its significance for national climate plans (NDCs) will be a central topic at this year’s UN climate negotiations. Many developing and emerging countries cannot achieve their goals without massive financial and technical support (“conditioning”), whether it’s for expanding renewable energy, combating deforestation, adapting to climate change or establishing low-carbon infrastructure.
This overview by Table.Briefings shows what important African countries need to implement their NDCs with their own efforts and external assistance. Many plans have “conditioned” targets that can only be achieved if they receive external financial aid. This support was promised to them in Article 9 of the Paris Agreement. The plans set specific goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in key sectors such as transportation, agriculture and energy, and include adaptation strategies.
The gap between necessity and feasibility is particularly wide in many African countries. Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 requires a total investment of about two trillion dollars. The need and opportunities for financing are especially significant in Africa: The continent has large potentials for renewable energy, which are largely untapped. Africa represents about 20 percent of the world’s population but only 3 percent of CO2 emissions. The Climate Policy Initiative has compiled many important details in an informative overview.
Kenya’s NDC includes CO2 reduction and adaptation in various sectors, including energy, agriculture, and waste management. The total estimated costs until 2030 amount to 62 billion USD. About 21 percent of this, around 3.7 billion, is to be financed from domestic sources. For the remaining 79 percent, the country relies on international support in the form of finance, technology and capacity building.
Nigeria
In 2019/2020, Nigeria invested an average of 1.9 billion USD annually in climate-related activities. However, this is only 11 percent of the estimated 17.7 billion needed annually to achieve the “conditioned” target in the NDC: reducing emissions by 47 percent below the business-as-usual level by 2030. A significant aspect of Nigeria’s NDC is the energy sector. Nigeria launched an Energy Transition Plan (ETP) in August 2022, aimed at paving the way to the net-zero goal for 2060.
Egypt
To implement Egypt’s updated NDC, an estimated minimum of 246 billion USD is necessary. To mobilize these funds (196 billion for mitigation, 50 billion for adaptation), Egypt utilizes its partnerships and innovative financing strategies like blended finance and debt-for-climate swaps. A key initiative is the Nexus of Water Food and Energy (NWFE) platform, which bundles high-priority adaptation and climate protection projects and seeks critical investments of 14.7 billion USD. As the host country of COP27, Egypt committed in 2023 to reduce emissions by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario: 37 percent in the energy sector, 7 percent in transportation and 65 percent in the oil and gas sector – contingent on external support. Additionally, renewables should generate 42 percent of electricity by 2035.
Uganda
Uganda requires a total of 28.1 billion USD to implement its updated climate goals. The country has committed to mobilizing 4.1 billion USD (15 percent of the total costs) from its own domestic resources for climate protection measures. To fully implement the goals, 85 percent of the sum must come from external sources.
Morocco
Morocco estimates that the implementation of its 61 planned sectoral mitigation measures will require a total investment of 38.8 billion US dollars. Around half of these costs (21.5 billion) are expected to be financed by additional international support. The energy sector, which accounts for two thirds of national greenhouse gas emissions, is at the heart of the efforts.
Democratic Republic of Congo
The DRC estimates its financial needs for climate action measures in its NDC to be 48.68 billion USD. Of this, 25.6 billion is for mitigation and 23.08 billion for adaptation. The NDC commits to a 21 percent emission reduction from 2021 to 2030, with 19 percent of this achieved through external support and 2 percent through national efforts. The mitigation measures focus primarily on forestry, energy (including transportation), agriculture and waste management.
Ghana
Ghana estimates a total financing need of 22.6 billion USD to implement its NDC. The country has committed to 31 specific mitigation and adaptation measures across seven economic sectors. While the Ghanaian government has pledged 6.3 billion for these climate action programs, the remaining 16.3 billion must come from a combination of international public funds and private sector investments.
Senegal
The cost for fully implementing Senegal’s NDC is estimated at 13 billion USD, with 8.7 billion for mitigation measures and 4.3 billion for adaptation measures. Both areas are also dependent on international support. Additionally, there is the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), through which Senegal will receive a total of 2.5 billion Euros over three to five years to decarbonize its industry and economy. Meanwhile, Senegal continues to expand its gas production.
South Africa
To implement its NDC, South Africa seeks climate financing of at least 8 billion USD annually by 2030. The country is also reliant on foreign investments and international financial aid, invoking the Paris Agreement. In 2020, South Africa set a goal in its low-emission development strategy to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Donor countries USA, France, the UK, Germany and the EU are financing a JETP with South Africa to support the transition from coal power to more renewables and efficiency with a total of 8.5 billion USD. However, the implementation of JETP continues to face internal challenges and resistance.
Africa
Climate financing
Climate policy
COP29
COP29
JETP
NDC
Translation missing.
Radical hunger strike: Why the climate movement is distancing itself
The camp of “Hunger Until You’re Honest” in front of the Ministry of Economic Affairs in Berlin: Activist Wolfgang Metzeler-Kick has been on hunger strike since early March.
The hunger strike by radical climate activists in Berlin’s government district has found little support in its form within the German climate movement. While many individuals and organizations in the climate scene sympathize with the hunger strikers’ motives, they reject their approach.
One hunger striker is now in life-threatening danger, according to his doctors. Since March 7, Wolfgang Metzeler-Kick has eaten nothing. He has now announced that starting Wednesday, he will also go on a thirst strike, abstaining from all calories and fluids. His blood sugar levels are already in a critical range, it is reported. The doctors who have been monitoring his strike no longer take medical responsibility. Despite this, Metzeler-Kick has stated he will not stop until the group “Hunger Until You’re Honest” achieves its goals: a government declaration by Olaf Scholz addressing the climate crisis and acknowledging the dangers publicly.
The group demands that Scholz declare that “human civilization is extremely threatened by the climate catastrophe”, that there is too much CO2 in the air, and that radical changes must be made. Earlier this week, “Hunger Until You’re Honest” slightly adjusted and softened their demands for the government declaration.
Well-known scientists like Stefan Rahmsdorf, Claudia Kemfert and Volker Quaschning, with Scientist for Future, support the activists’ demands. However, they made it clear as early as May that they do not consider the form of protest appropriate: “We want to assure the strikers that we share their concerns. We urge them not to risk their health and lives.” WWF also believes a hunger strike is not the right path: “Science says we still have the power to stop the climate crisis, and for that, we need all our strength,” says Heike Vesper, board member of WWF Germany.
Metzeler-Kick’s condition worsens
Two activists have already ended their strike. Four activists are still fasting in the camp set up in Berlin-Mitte between the climate action and transport ministries. In addition to Metzeler-Kick, Adrian Lack, who has been fasting for about a month, has also announced he will stop consuming fluids. Metzeler-Kick refuses to stop: “I feel bad, but I knew the protest would only work if it became really critical,” he says. Previously, he was active with the “Last Generation”.
Metzeler-Kick says he is ready to die for his protest. “If I wasn’t ready to go to the extreme, it would be pointless to start this,” he says. He does not want to watch the earth continue to heat up and “nothing being done about it”. His girlfriend is against his action and wishes he would stop, he says. His 14-year-old son knows that he cannot be persuaded otherwise.
Sitting in his tent, standing up is already difficult for the 49-year-old.
Metzeler-Kick is aware that his action is broadly rejected even among climate protectors: Climate activist Luisa Neubauer has also told him that the protest is ineffective. The German Environmental Aid (Deutsche Umwelthilfe) declined to comment on the strike when asked: “We, of course, observe the current developments with great concern but are not in direct contact with the strikers and therefore cannot comment on the current situation,” they said in an interview with Table.Briefings.
Germanwatch supports the activists’ concerns but also distances itself from the form of protest: “We support the cause of taking the climate crisis seriously – but hunger strikes are not a form of action Germanwatch chooses,” says Lutz Weischer, head of Germanwatch’s Berlin office. He worries that the worsening climate crisis will lead to more fear and despair among many citizens. Therefore, politics must implement and communicate more efficient climate action. Greenpeace stated that they generally do not comment on other groups and protests, including the hunger strike.
“It is very, very dramatic that people are putting their lives on the line in the fight against the climate crisis,” says Rolf Meyer, spokesperson for the “Last Generation”, to Table.Briefings. “This deserves full respect.” He also finds the demand for honesty from the group “Hunger Until You’re Honest” important. Absolute honesty is necessary for people to grasp the extent of the climate crisis. In September 2021, several activists went on hunger strike to force a conversation with the then chancellor candidates. They ended it after nearly a month but secured a public meeting with candidate Olaf Scholz. The “Last Generation” emerged from this strike.
Continuing without support from the climate movement
Metzeler-Kick is aware that the climate movement does not support the hunger strike. But that doesn’t matter to him, he assures. “There have to be individuals willing to make extreme sacrifices,” he says. He is in contact with various politicians by phone or through visits, but he won’t name names. Economy Minister Robert Habeck has visited the camp and spoken with him and the strikers.
None of this has led Metzeler-Kick to end the hunger strike. The strikers say they are waiting solely for a response from Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz commented on the hunger strike for the first time during a citizen dialogue at the Festival of Democracy at the end of May. His greatest wish is for the action to be ended. “It is a mistake to use violence against others, but also against oneself,” he says. He will not respond to the activists’ demands, according to his spokesperson.
Climate & Environment
Climate protection
Germany
News
Climate target 2030: Why the Expert Council doubts Habeck’s positive forecast
It was the positive surprise of the spring: Germany will likely achieve its climate target by 2030, announced Robert Habeck in mid-March, citing the latest projection report from the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). However, the joy was short-lived: On Monday, the Expert Council for Climate Issues, appointed by the federal government, contradicted this forecast. “In summary, we cannot confirm the cumulative target achievement for the years 2021 to 2030 as stated in the 2024 projection data. On the contrary, we expect a target miss,” said the council’s chairman, Hans-Martin Hennig.
The main reasons for the differing prognosis, according to the council’s report, include the fact that the massive cuts in the Climate and Transformation Fund (CTF) were not yet considered in the UBA’s forecast. Additionally, gas and CO2 prices are significantly lower than assumed in its calculations. As a result, emissions in the energy, building, and transportation sectors would decrease less than projected. The council also expects a significant shortfall in the goals after 2030, increasing year by year. Climate neutrality will not be achieved with the planned measures – not by the announced year 2045 nor at a later date.
BMKW interprets dispute as confirmation
The federal government is not immediately required to adopt additional measures based on the council’s assessment. The revised Climate Protection Act mandates these measures only if the forecast indicates a target miss for two consecutive years. “We still recommend reacting quickly rather than waiting for another target miss,” said Brigitte Knopf, the council’s deputy chair. The focus should be on the building and transportation sectors, where the gap is largest and where significant payments could be due to the EU burden-sharing requirements if targets are missed.
However, the federal government did not seem inclined to comply with this request on Monday. In a press release, it attempted to portray the council’s contradiction as a confirmation of its policy. “Only if we stay the course can we achieve the 2030 climate target,” quoted State Secretary Stefan Wenzel. The statement that the existing cuts in the CTF endanger the goal was reinterpreted by the BMWK to mean that it is crucial to “avoid further cuts”. According to the release, the government will only decide on new measures if a target miss is confirmed again next year. mkr
Robert Habeck
Climate change: Europeans’ fears for their lifestyle
Europeans view climate change as the biggest threat to their lifestyle over the next ten years. Forty percent of respondents ranked the climate crisis above issues such as artificial intelligence, pandemics and migration, according to a representative survey by the communications agency Finn Partners Research & Insights, commissioned by the Meliore Foundation.
Germans, too, consider the climate crisis as their biggest concern. Thirty-seven percent see it as a threat over the next ten years, followed by threats from migration and crime (both at 35 percent). More than half of Germans also believe that extreme weather events will influence their choice of residence in the next 20 years. Seventy-one percent are worried about future water supply and potential water shortages. Experts tell Table.Briefings that while drinking water supply is secure, it could become more expensive in the future.
Additionally, 61 percent of Germans think that the government should prioritize the future costs of climate change in its political decisions today. A recent Eurobarometer survey also showed that a large majority of people are dissatisfied with the EU’s climate policies. lb
Hochwasser
Klima & Umwelt
Thawing permafrost: Why it is not a global tipping point
Thawing permafrost is not a global climate tipping point, according to an international team of scientists. Permafrost soils cover about a quarter of the land surface in the Northern Hemisphere and store large amounts of carbon. When these soils thaw, microorganisms become active, releasing significant amounts of carbon in the form of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere.
In public discourse, there is a belief that permafrost might suddenly thaw more rapidly once a certain level of global warming is reached, potentially leading to a self-accelerating thawing process. However, there is no evidence for this, says Jan Nitzbon from the Alfred Wegener Institute at the Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). “Even the estimated release of greenhouse gases would not lead to a global jump in warming at least until the end of the century. Therefore, portraying permafrost as a global tipping point is misleading.”
The scientists are not giving an all-clear, though. There are many smaller local and regional tipping points that will be crossed at different times and levels of warming. The worldwide thawing of permafrost progresses in step with global warming. “This means – contrary to what the image of a tipping point might suggest – there is no reassuring warming buffer that we can afford to exploit up to a threshold,” says Nitzbon. nib
Kipppunkte
Brazil: Climate change has doubled the likelihood of floods
Climate change has doubled the likelihood of the flooding that occurred in late April and early May in Brazil’s southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, according to a recent analysis by researchers at World Weather Attribution (WWA). Additionally, the rainfalls were intensified by the El Niño weather phenomenon, and the impacts were exacerbated by inadequate flood protection infrastructure.
While water levels in southern Germany are currently still rising in many areas, Brazil is already assessing the damage from this “climate disaster”. The floods affected more than 90 percent of Rio Grande do Sul, forced over 580,000 people to evacuate their homes, and resulted in at least 169 deaths. Dozens more are still missing. Poor sanitary conditions are now increasing the risk of infectious diseases.
Rainfall intensified by six to nine percent due to climate change
“The devastating impacts of such extreme events on people can only be minimized with adequate adaptation measures, including well-maintained flood protection infrastructure and proper urban planning,” says Regina Rodrigues, a climate researcher at the Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil.
According to the WWA analysis, the flood was an extremely rare event: Even under the current climate conditions, which are already warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius, such an event is expected only once every 100 to 250 years. The heavy rainfall was not only made twice as likely by climate change but also intensified by six to nine percent. With a global warming of two degrees, the likelihood of such events would double again. El Niño had a similar impact as climate change, making such heavy rain events two to five times more likely and three to ten percent more intense. kul
Hochwasser
India: At least 25,000 people suffer heatstroke amid deadly heatwaves
Due to the heatwaves that swept across India from March to May, nearly 25,000 people are suspected to have suffered heatstroke. The death toll stands at 56, as reported by local media based on government data. Including suspected cases, the total number of heat-related deaths in India could rise to 80, according to The Hindu newspaper.
In the capital city of Delhi and the nearby state of Rajasthan, temperatures soared to around 50 degrees Celsius. Concurrently, Cyclone Remal battered parts of eastern India, causing severe rainfall and resulting in the deaths of at least 14 people. The meteorological department has indicated that the current heatwave may abate by Wednesday. rtr/lb
Klima & Umwelt
Climate funding programs in business little known
Among German executives in German companies, important funding programs for climate action are hardly known. This was reported by transformation researcher Maja Göpel in the Table.Today podcast. The insight comes from a survey conducted by Göpel’s new initiative “Mission Wertvoll” in collaboration with the strategy consultancy Oliver Wyman among 164 top managers, which is set to be released this Tuesday. According to Göpel, while 57 percent of respondents consider the EU to be the relevant level for securing competitiveness, only 18 percent were familiar with important programs or funding initiatives in detail.
To make stronger progress in climate action, Göpel, known as the author of bestsellers such as “We can do better” (“Wir können auch anders”) and “Rethinking Our World” (“Unsere Welt neu denken”), advocates for greater networking among key stakeholders. With her foundation-funded initiative, established last year, she aims to facilitate better exchange between business actors and scientists. Additionally, climate issues should be more prominently featured in films and series through collaboration with directors and screenwriters. To defend climate action against populism and fossil interests, the “us vs. them” logic must be overcome. “We need to forge entirely new alliances,” says Göpel. You can listen to the podcast from 6 a.m. here. mkr
Climate protection
Company
Transformation
Energy transition: Where G7 and EU still need to catch up
The G7 countries are making progress in decarbonizing their electricity sectors. However, significant supply risks persist, particularly due to reliance on gas, according to an assessment by the environmental think tank E3G. Except for Japan, all G7 countries are on track to phase out coal by 2030 or are at least taking significant steps toward that goal, like Germany and the USA. However, there remains a significant gap in phasing out unabated natural gas. This increases dependence on “commercially unavailable technologies” such as CCS or hydrogen-capable gas power.
An analysis by the think tank Ember shows that since 2019, the EU’s energy transition has saved 30 to 40 billion euros in gas import expenses alone. This is highlighted in Ember’s energy policy review of the ending European legislative term. Overall, Europe has made rapid progress in expanding renewable energy sources. “The EU is now in a historic, sustained transition away from dependence on fossil fuels for electricity generation,” said Sarah Brown, Director of the Europe Program at Ember.
According to Ember’s analysis, the share of renewables in the EU’s electricity mix increased from 34 to 44 percent between 2019 and 2023. While Germany has increased its capacity most significantly in absolute terms, the success of green energy is based on broad growth across the EU27, Ember emphasized. For example, Latvia has quadrupled its renewable capacity, and Hungary has almost tripled it. ber
