Table.Briefing: Climate (English)

Germany: COP text ‘unacceptable’ + Developing countries with new alliances + Fossil fuel phase-out roadmaps

Dear reader,

Today is officially the last day of COP28, but an extension is increasingly likely. A negotiating text published yesterday is a bitter disappointment for the most ambitious and vulnerable countries. Comments range from “unacceptable” to “stunned.” Bernhard Pötter has studied the text and is looking ahead.

Urmi Goswami has taken a thorough look at the G77/China group. The negotiating group includes both the most vulnerable countries and large coal users such as China. Tensions here were already evident at the last climate conference in Egypt. This year, the most vulnerable countries are pursuing a new strategy: Seeking flexible new partnerships with other blocs, while remaining on the side of China and other influential countries on other important matters.

Today’s news features an interesting calculation showing which countries would have to completely phase out fossil fuels in the early 2030s in order to keep the 1.5-degree target within reach – and how much the rich countries would have to pay to mitigate the consequences of a fossil fuel phase-out in poorer countries.

Your
Nico Beckert
Image of Nico  Beckert

Feature

COP decision: guesswork after the provocation

COP-Präsident Al Jaber
COP President Al Jaber faces harsh criticism. Many consider the negotiating text he has presented “unacceptable.”

It all started with positive surprises: An agenda without disputes, a decision on the loss and damage fund and a surprising amount of money. It continued with positive statements from heads of government, flawless organization, a pleasant atmosphere in the negotiating rooms and far-reaching declarations – and it ended in a disaster for the moment: The United Arab Emirates’ presidency of COP28 entered the home straight on Monday afternoon with a heavily criticized draft final declaration. And many delegates and observers were left with one thing on Monday evening: confusion about what to do next.

‘Our voices were not heard’

The text of the final declaration was published at around 4.30 pm on Monday, around 18 hours before COP President Sultan Al Jaber announced that the conference would end on time. The Europeans and others who expected ambition saw the paper as the ultimate provocation. And this from a presidency that had gone to great lengths to listen and be “inclusive.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized it as “inadequate and unacceptable,” adding that the text was unbalanced and intolerable, “our voices were not heard,” – AOSIS representatives declared – a severe criticism in a UN system based on consensus and the inclusion of all groups.

There is widespread displeasure from the camp that had hoped for more: Besides the EU, representatives of island states, the Latin American group, other developing countries and the Umbrella Group were also outraged. Reports emerged that these groups made many critical comments at a meeting of delegation leaders with COP President Al Jaber late in the evening. However, there was no public communication from India or China.

Are the discussions truly over

At the presentation of the text, Al Jaber said in a press release: “The time for discussion is coming to an end.” Judging by the voices from the plenary, the time for discussion has only just begun. Critics are particularly upset by the following formulations:

  • The wording on a fossil fuel phase-out is vague. Article 39e only provides for reducing fossil fuel production and consumption in a “just and equitable manner” to achieve net zero “before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science.” No phase-out, just net zero with all the problems of sinks and CCS, no clarity on which science is meant.
  • “Unabated” coal is to be phased down quickly, new permits will be harder to obtain. Very little progress compared to the COP26 decision to phase down coal.
  • The relevant Article 39 only calls on countries to take measures in this direction, which “could include” these ideas. So if you don’t want to do anything, you don’t have to.
  • The article is full of references to the controversial CCS and only calls for the “substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems,” – a far cry from the use of CCS for hard-to-decarbonize industries as envisaged by the EU.
  • Article 115 specifies adaptation finance needs of 215 to 387 billion dollars annually until 2030 for developing countries. It is unclear who is supposed to provide it.

However, there are also points that the EU welcomes:

  • For example, Article 29 describes the urgent need for a global peak in emissions “at the latest before 2025” and “rapid, deep and sustained reductions” in emissions to achieve minus 43 percent by 2030 and net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
  • The text highlights the importance of oceans and nature for climate action.

What is Al Jaber’s goal?

Overall, critics complain that the text has internal contradictions and lacks direction. It is also unclear why such a surprisingly unbalanced text was presented in the first place. It can hardly be due to a lack of experience on the part of Al Jaber’s team. Over the past year, the UAE has recruited a high-profile team of advisors for the presidency. So far, this group, which also includes seasoned former UNFCCC experts, has mastered all the procedural challenges of COP28 with flying colors.

This makes Al Jaber’s motives for presenting such a text, which has met with fierce resistance from many parts of the conference, all the more puzzling now. A president who was eyed with suspicion because of his background in the oil business, but then spent a year traveling the world to listen and organize the most inclusive COP ever, is presenting a text that makes many countries feel unheard. On the last official day of COP28, pressing questions now arise:

  • Did he try to put climate action frontrunners in a difficult position? Now, they have to negotiate their terms, like “phase out” into the text instead of defending an existing text against criticism.
  • Has his team deliberately chosen a weak and unacceptable text – so that the next, possibly still unambitious, text will be regarded as a significant improvement?
  • Is the pressure from its large neighbor Saudi Arabia too strong, which, according to many observers and with the support of OPEC, worked massively against the end of fossil fuels during the talks at the COP and even at the G20?
  • Is Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber still the “honest broker” between the positions of individual countries that a COP president needs to be to be successful?
  • Is the coalition of progressive states around the EU prepared to let COP28 fall through if they don’t get a decision that even comes close to a fossil fuel phase-out?
  • Will the High Ambition Coalition return with power and possible new members?
  • How will the dispute and possible failure of COP28 affect the UN and the multilateral order? And how will it affect the Emirates’ international reputation as a mediator between Europe, Asia and Africa, between the Global North and South?

The only thing that seems certain is that the conference will hardly end on time on Tuesday.

  • COP28
  • Fossil fuels
  • UNFCCC

The strategy of the vulnerable: Forging alliances, as interests require

Kokosinsel, australisches Seegebiet
Island states are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The picture shows Cocos Island, Australian sea area.

COP28 in Dubai is something of a rollercoaster ride for vulnerable and poor developing countries – which are part of the G77 group and China in UN climate negotiations. They experienced highs when the loss and damage fund, with an initial capitalization of over 700 million dollars, finally began its work. They had to accept defeats, such as the blockade during negotiations of climate change adaptation and the still unresolved decision on phasing out fossil fuels.

But one thing is clear: The strategy of poor countries united in the group of “least developed countries” (LDCs) and small island states (SIDS) has changed. They have become more flexible and more diverse. In this way, poor countries have fuelled the dynamics within the G77 – and yet kept the group together.

Strategy against the traditional policy of the big players

The small island states and the least developed countries have learnt from the past two years: They must pull out all the stops through strategic partnerships and cooperation with other countries to maintain the 1.5-degree limit. But they cannot rely solely on the protection of the G77 group and China, but must seek support and recognition for their “special circumstances.” John Silk, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Marshall Islands, told Table.Media: “Partnership and co-operation will get results.”

It is also a strategy against the traditional policy of the big countries: In the past, both the established developed countries and the influential emerging economies have attempted to exploit the poor and vulnerable countries for their own benefit in climate negotiations. The countries from the Global North tried to use them to break up the bloc of the G77 and China. The G77 and China, in turn, brought them onto their side to exert more influence in the negotiations as a larger bloc.

The vulnerable countries now pursue a pragmatic and issue-based approach in Dubai. Internally, they call it the “cafeteria” approach: It means seeking and offering partnerships with countries or negotiating blocs that are best suited to fulfill the demands of the LDCs and SIDS. In Sharm El-Sheikh, they called on larger developing countries such as China and the Gulf oil states to make a financial contribution. In Dubai, they focused on urging emerging economies to show more ambitious climate action.

Reasons of the big players against the fossil phase-out

However, the major developing and emerging countries in the G77 group and China have their own reasons for resisting the call to phase out fossil fuels: Some do not want to have their energy and climate policies dictated to them; after all, their dependence on fossil fuels is often high. Others oppose specific sector targets. And others point out that their energy needs are increasing, but their resources for expanding renewable energies are limited.

Tina Steege, climate ambassador for the Marshall Islands, nevertheless calls for solidarity: “We expect the developing countries to stand by us here at COP28,” she told Table.Media. “Large developing countries like China and India must show solidarity with us. We are a country where continued fossil fuel extraction is not only a threat to our economy, but also to our entire territory. How can you know that an entire country could become uninhabitable and not show solidarity?”

To advance the phase-out of fossil fuels at COP28, the vulnerable countries have now allied themselves with wealthy developed countries. However, this alliance can hardly be translated to other negotiating tracks.

Little trust in the US

Poor countries recognize that the EU is firmly standing by their side because the Green Deal and its implementation force them to do so. For its part, the US supports the demand for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency. But the Global South has little trust in them.

One of the reasons is that the United States has always held back when it comes to financing global climate action: At the start of the summit in Dubai, for example, the world’s largest economy announced a contribution of 17.5 million US dollars to the loss and damage fund, while Germany and the United Arab Emirates pledged 100 million each.

Adaptation: G77 and China remain united

However, in the negotiations on adaptation to climate change, the vulnerable countries remain a firm part of the group of developing countries of the G77 and China. The wishes of the developing countries for the global adaptation target to be adopted in Dubai vary. But their demands largely align: They all want clear, time-limited targets for specific adaptation measures, such as early warning systems or adequate water supplies, and more support from wealthy countries, including funding.

Adaptation has traditionally been a priority of developing countries, which are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and are rarely able to react adequately. The resistance of developed countries, spearheaded by the United States, against targets and funding for adaptation is holding the G77 together.

Although the EU has made efforts to reach out to the African countries – Germany announced 60 million dollars for the UN Adaptation Fund at the end of the conference and Austria pledged 35 million dollars. However, these efforts have so far not changed the unity of the G77 countries regarding adaptation.

For the poorest of the poor, the SIDS and LDCs, the essence of their strategy remains the same: emphasizing their vulnerability: “Our message to the world is that you cannot build your economy at the expense of the vulnerable,” said Marshall Islands Climate Ambassador Tina Steege.

  • Africa
  • China
  • COP28
  • Developing countries

News

International emissions trading: US and EU have different interests

Some technical details of Article 6.2 of the Paris Climate Agreement are still unclear. It is designed to facilitate trading carbon credits between countries and allow the purchasing country to include them in its nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

In practice, this means that a country that has already fulfilled its own NDC promotes forest conservation or reforestation projects, for instance. The resulting carbon reduction achievements can be sold as carbon credits. The idea is to incentivize global emission reductions and establish an international carbon market.

COP28 is now to determine who will certify and register such projects, how transparent the trade will be and what the consequences will be in the event of non-compliance. The negotiations in Dubai are being delayed in particular because the EU and the USA have fundamentally different ideas.

EU and USA disagree

The EU favors introducing the strictest possible, transparent and verifiable rules for certification. Registration should be managed by a state authority that collects information on carbon reduction projects. This information should also be transparent and comprehensible for everyone. Sensitive business data is only to be treated confidentially in exceptional cases and with justification.

The USA wants to impose fewer barriers and relies on the free market. The private sector is supposed to handle registration itself, as it is faster and more efficient so that trading can begin as quickly as possible. Observers also believe private companies could still trade carbon credits should Donald Trump once again become US President and withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The US also wants less restrictive rules for classifying business information as confidential.

The USA is not the only country to favor a softer implementation of Article 6.2. The so-called “Likeminded Developing Countries,” a group including Saudi Arabia and China, also support a softer framework for intergovernmental emissions trading – albeit for different reasons. According to observers, they hope to be able to “buy off” their emissions as easily as possible.

That is why Gilles Dufrasne from Carbon Market Watch believes no agreement on Article 6.2 in Dubai may be reached. “It’s better not to have an agreement than to have a lax system that doesn’t set really strict rules.” Dufrasne calls for consequences for those who do not comply with the rules. “Certificates that do not comply with the rules should not be allowed to be sold or used,” he told Table.Media. luk

Study: USA and EU must finance fossil fuel phase-out

To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, many Western countries would have to stop using coal, oil and gas soon after 2030. This is according to an NGO report recently presented at COP28. The authors calculated phase-out dates for various countries based on their wealth and dependence on fossil fuels. The wealthier a country and the lower its dependency, the earlier the calculated phase-out date. Wealthy countries such as the USA, Norway, Canada and Germany, as well as emerging economies such as China and Russia, would have to phase out coal, oil and gas shortly after 2030 or before 2035. This would give countries with even higher dependency or less financial capacity, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, or even the poorest countries, such as South Sudan, more time to make the final phase-out.

The authors write that the phase-out dates are “enormously challenging” and are earlier than the dates previously communicated by countries. “However, this is the only way CO2 emissions can conceivably be kept within the nearly depleted 1.5 °C budget,” the report states.

Historic polluters have a duty

In addition, many countries would require financial help to restructure their economies and make the phase-out possible in the first place. Without financial support, there is a risk of “energy poverty, loss of public services, and unemployment.” The authors demand that wealthy countries and those that have contributed significantly to historic emissions must provide this financial support. Due to its high level of prosperity and historical responsibility, the United States would have to bear the bulk of 46 percent of the financial support – according to conservative calculations, this would be almost 100 billion US dollars annually. The EU would account for 20 percent of the support and Japan 9 percent. nib

  • Coal phase-out
  • Fossil fuels

Renewable energies have tripled worldwide since 2014

Over half of all countries have tripled their renewable energy capacity in the last ten years. Worldwide, this figure tripled between 2014 and 2022. This is according to a new report by Zero Carbon Analytics. The report predicts 2023 will be another record year by a wide margin, with over 500 gigawatts added.

The report shows that almost 360 billion US dollars were invested in renewables in the first half of 2023, with two-thirds going to solar energy. A large part (65 percent) of the investments in 2022 came from Asia, with China accounting for 80 percent of the Asian share. The massive investments of recent years have drastically reduced costs. On average, the cost of photovoltaic systems, wind power, heat pumps and batteries decreased by 80 percent between 2010 and 2022 – despite inflation.

The following picture emerges for the different regions of the world:

  • Middle East: Capacity grew by 11 percent between 2021 and 2022, the second-largest percentage increase in the world. Solar capacity grew 30-fold between 2015 and 2022, while wind energy grew three-fold.
  • Latin America: Forecasts predict that wind and solar capacity will double between 2022 and 2027.
  • Africa: Renewable capacity doubled to 59 gigawatts between 2012 and 2022 — annual growth was eight percent.
  • EU: A total of 90 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity was added in 2020 and 2021. Forecasts suggest an additional 60 gigawatts in 2023.
  • USA: In 2022, ten gigawatts of solar and eight gigawatts of wind power capacity were added. An additional 25 gigawatts of solar power is forecasted for 2023.
  • China: The People’s Republic accounts for around half of the global expansion in 2022. On average, wind power capacity doubled roughly every 1.5 years between 2000 and 2022, while solar capacity doubled about every 2.5 years. nib
  • Solar

Germany provides 60 million euros for adaptation financing

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Environment Minister Steffi Lemke have announced at COP28 in Dubai that Germany will contribute another 60 million euros to the UN Adaptation Fund. Each ministry will provide half of the sum. Germany had already paid the same amount into the fund in 2022. This makes the country the largest donor.

In total, the fund had set itself the goal of raising 300 million US dollars this year. But only 187.7 million US dollars have been donated so far. Alongside Germany, other European countries and regions, Canada and South Korea have also given money.

Adaptation finance is particularly controversial at COP28. Above all, developing countries demand concrete commitments in connection with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), which is to be adopted in Dubai. However, developed countries are unwilling to make these commitments under the GGA at the current summit.

A touch of solidarity

Jan Kowalzig, climate finance expert at the NGO Oxfam, saw the fact that the adaptation fund missed the target of 300 million as “another damper on the current climate conference.” One can “understand very well that the developing countries do not trust the developed countries when it comes to financial support,” Kowalzig told Table.Media in Dubai. “The developed countries like to make big speeches about their solidarity with the affected countries of the Global South. But not enough to replenish the Adaptation Fund with corresponding pledges.”

Nevertheless, in light of Germany’s tight budget situation, Kowalzig praised the German contribution to the fund as an “important sign of solidarity.” With its pledge, the German government shows that it will continue to support particularly vulnerable countries in adapting to climate change.

The global Adaptation Fund has provided around 923.5 million US dollars for projects since 2010, including 132 specific projects in almost 100 countries for 36 million beneficiaries. kul/ae

Argentina’s new president intends to stay in the Paris Agreement

On Sunday, right-wing populist Javier Milei took office as President of Argentina. On the same day, the 72-year-old announced on X that he had signed a decree reducing the number of ministries in the country from 18 to 9, including the Ministry of the Environment.

Milei’s climate negotiator, Marcia Levaggi, told the news agency Reuters at COP28 that Argentina had no intention of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement. During his election campaign, Milei himself called climate change a “hoax.” The country also wants to stick to its net-zero target for 2050. Following the abolition of the Ministry of the Environment, the matter will be divided between all other ministries and will not be a lower priority going forward, said Levaggi.

In the election campaign, Milei said he would not adhere to the Paris Agreement because he would not tolerate “impositions from outside.” He also stated that there would be no measures for forest conservation or indigenous rights under him.

Marcia Levaggi previously served as Argentina’s ambassador to Senegal and was only offered the role of climate negotiator last week. She has decades of experience in this field and has worked for the UN Adaptation Fund. Levaggi led the negotiations for Argentina at COP25. It was also recently revealed that Javier Milei did not want to bring Argentina into the BRICS alliance as planned. rtr/kul

Opinion

Supporting a just energy transition in Africa

By Amos Wemanya
Amos Wemanya is Senior Advisor for Renewable Energy and Just Transition at the environmental NGO Power Shift Africa.

Africa’s unprecedented renewable energy potential offers an excellent basis for transforming its energy sector. Nevertheless, Africa’s electricity supply is lagging far behind. Most people in sub-Saharan Africa live in severe energy poverty. Almost half of Africans (46 percent) still have no access to electricity in their homes, and one billion have no access to clean, low-emission cooking facilities.

Therefore, efforts to achieve universal access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity by 2030 must be at the forefront of African energy transition strategies to effectively combat poverty, open up new economic opportunities and promote gender equality.

For decades, Africa has invested billions of US dollars in fossil fuel-based energy systems. Fossil fuels have failed to provide hundreds of millions of people with access to modern energy.

In line with the principles of equity

Africa has more potential for renewable energy than any other continent. Renewable energy is the cheapest option and the best investment for Africa. However, Africa’s current energy generation mix still relies on fossil fuels, while renewable energy sources account for almost 18 percent of electricity generation.

Tripling global renewable energy capacity has received much political support at the ongoing climate conference. To date, over 120 countries have signed the pledge. However, this global renewable energy target must be in line with the principles of equity. An effective global renewable energy target requires new financing mechanisms and alternative business strategies for actors in the value chain, especially for the most vulnerable regions.

Renewable energy systems can create democratic, decentralized, community-owned, fit-for-purpose energy systems for Africa. This is especially true for remote rural communities in Africa. However, developing these renewable energy projects would require both financial and technical support from developed countries.

Expediting substantial, predictable and additional financial and technical resources through appropriate instruments to reduce the costs of the energy transition for the people and modernize the electricity grids – including subsidized loans, guarantees and grants – must be a priority.

‘Just one side of a complex story’

Compared to the financing of fossil fuels, current financial flows for climate action in Africa are minuscule. Fossil fuels directly impact the lives of the people of Africa through the pollution resulting from their extraction and combustion. However, the fossil fuel industry is only propagating one side of a complex story by claiming that extraction is a source of public revenue, jobs and access to energy. However, the experiences that African communities have had with oil, gas and coal producers tell a very different story.

Promoting fossil fuels in Africa hinders several sustainable development goals, including ensuring health and well-being for all, gender equality, climate action, ending hunger and poverty, clean water and sanitation for all, and universal access to electricity.

Africa has consistently supported the global goal of limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This was demonstrated by the fact that 54 African countries supported the 1.5-degree target, which led to its inclusion in the Paris Agreement.

In September, African heads of state and government met in Nairobi, Kenya, and agreed on the goal of increasing the installed capacity of renewables in Africa from 56 gigawatts to 300 gigawatts by 2030. According to estimates, this will cost 600 billion US dollars. Africa is going to need support to achieve this ambitious goal.

“Provide adequate financial resources”

However, this requires abandoning the current unbalanced support from countries of the Global North, as seen recently with the Dash for Africa’s Gas. Africa will need genuine support and its partners would have to be responsible cooperation partners to limit global temperature rise and avert a catastrophic future.

At present, only two percent of global investment in renewable energy goes to Africa. Even more alarming is that the cost of capital for renewable energy projects in Africa can be up to seven times higher than in other regions, especially in the Global North.

The ongoing discussions and commitments towards a global renewable energy target must lead to adequate and additional financing to help Africa realize its potential and its primary need to meet the energy needs of its population. This must also help Africa achieve its sustainable development goals and strengthen its resilience to the climate crisis. Those who can pay the most must bear the greatest cost burden, namely the rich countries that have already benefited the most from fossil fuels.

‘Ensuring fair transitions’

At this COP, discussions on just transitions must ensure that a framework for their funding is created that protects workers, communities and economies from negative consequences.

Developed countries and international financial institutions should refrain from supporting the expansion of fossil fuels in Africa and other developing countries. Instead, they should invest their resources and expertise in promoting decentralized, community-owned renewable energy solutions.

It is essential to actively involve civil society organizations, local communities and indigenous groups in the decision-making processes related to energy projects. They must take ownership of renewable energy initiatives in their countries and ensure that the benefits of the energy transition are harnessed locally.

Amos Wemanya is Senior Advisor for Renewable Energy and Just Energy Transition at the environmental NGO Power Shift Africa.

  • Africa
  • Climate Justice
  • COP28
  • Renewable energies

Dessert

Veteran summit reporter on his way to the possibly all-important interview appointment at the COP.

Climate summits always involve very, very long walks. Especially in Dubai, where more people have gathered than at any other UN climate conference before, and the summit grounds seem like a spacious small town.

The distances are correspondingly long. 10,000 steps a day? Laughable. COP participants easily walk much longer distances. An unofficial survey among colleagues revealed that some fitness trackers show a 50 percent higher calorie burn since the start of the summit. Leaving all other factors aside, COP participation is very healthy in this respect.

In Dubai, the morning walk from your hotel to the metro can take several kilometers. On some days, the queues at the security checkpoint at the summit site entrance stretched all the way back to the metro station. In extreme cases, they even looped around the building several times, guided by barriers and controlled by security staff who shouted instructions to the crowd, telling them which way to go.

Some readers can imagine how this makes you feel. Sheep herds know what it’s like. But, apart from the crowd management, which Dubai has mastered, once you have finally passed the checks, the daily marching inside the summit area is just beginning. And the days are long. It’s not fun for anyone with walking problems.

What helps? You guessed it: proper footwear. Ministers and leading negotiators would certainly confirm this: The best grasp of the latest linguistic intricacies of summit diplomacy – currently all the rage at COP28: “abated” versus “unabated”is useless if your feet no longer carry you. High heels are thus something for COP newbies (or very, very tough summiteers). However, Team Table rarely saw such impractical footwear in Dubai.

Seasoned COP champs like us wear Birkenstocks, Crocks, trainers or running shoes, often in bright neon colors, some even marathon-tested. Particularly savvy climate summit marchers also swear by supportive insoles and have a pain-relieving ointment in their luggage, just in case. As old summit veterans, we at Table.Media are, naturally, adequately equipped. Otherwise, we wouldn’t get very far – or only very slowly – which would be fatal in Dubai, especially just before the end.

Instead, we are getting ready for the crucial home stretch. When we return to Germany, some of us from Team Table will put our tired feet up for a while. Others – as we know from very reliable sources – can’t help but continue to work tirelessly on climate reporting even after such a UN summit marathon. They are certainly already mentally preparing for the next endurance event. ae

Team table and their associated feet at the morning briefing in Dubai.
  • COP28

Climate.Table editorial team

CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    Today is officially the last day of COP28, but an extension is increasingly likely. A negotiating text published yesterday is a bitter disappointment for the most ambitious and vulnerable countries. Comments range from “unacceptable” to “stunned.” Bernhard Pötter has studied the text and is looking ahead.

    Urmi Goswami has taken a thorough look at the G77/China group. The negotiating group includes both the most vulnerable countries and large coal users such as China. Tensions here were already evident at the last climate conference in Egypt. This year, the most vulnerable countries are pursuing a new strategy: Seeking flexible new partnerships with other blocs, while remaining on the side of China and other influential countries on other important matters.

    Today’s news features an interesting calculation showing which countries would have to completely phase out fossil fuels in the early 2030s in order to keep the 1.5-degree target within reach – and how much the rich countries would have to pay to mitigate the consequences of a fossil fuel phase-out in poorer countries.

    Your
    Nico Beckert
    Image of Nico  Beckert

    Feature

    COP decision: guesswork after the provocation

    COP-Präsident Al Jaber
    COP President Al Jaber faces harsh criticism. Many consider the negotiating text he has presented “unacceptable.”

    It all started with positive surprises: An agenda without disputes, a decision on the loss and damage fund and a surprising amount of money. It continued with positive statements from heads of government, flawless organization, a pleasant atmosphere in the negotiating rooms and far-reaching declarations – and it ended in a disaster for the moment: The United Arab Emirates’ presidency of COP28 entered the home straight on Monday afternoon with a heavily criticized draft final declaration. And many delegates and observers were left with one thing on Monday evening: confusion about what to do next.

    ‘Our voices were not heard’

    The text of the final declaration was published at around 4.30 pm on Monday, around 18 hours before COP President Sultan Al Jaber announced that the conference would end on time. The Europeans and others who expected ambition saw the paper as the ultimate provocation. And this from a presidency that had gone to great lengths to listen and be “inclusive.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock criticized it as “inadequate and unacceptable,” adding that the text was unbalanced and intolerable, “our voices were not heard,” – AOSIS representatives declared – a severe criticism in a UN system based on consensus and the inclusion of all groups.

    There is widespread displeasure from the camp that had hoped for more: Besides the EU, representatives of island states, the Latin American group, other developing countries and the Umbrella Group were also outraged. Reports emerged that these groups made many critical comments at a meeting of delegation leaders with COP President Al Jaber late in the evening. However, there was no public communication from India or China.

    Are the discussions truly over

    At the presentation of the text, Al Jaber said in a press release: “The time for discussion is coming to an end.” Judging by the voices from the plenary, the time for discussion has only just begun. Critics are particularly upset by the following formulations:

    • The wording on a fossil fuel phase-out is vague. Article 39e only provides for reducing fossil fuel production and consumption in a “just and equitable manner” to achieve net zero “before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science.” No phase-out, just net zero with all the problems of sinks and CCS, no clarity on which science is meant.
    • “Unabated” coal is to be phased down quickly, new permits will be harder to obtain. Very little progress compared to the COP26 decision to phase down coal.
    • The relevant Article 39 only calls on countries to take measures in this direction, which “could include” these ideas. So if you don’t want to do anything, you don’t have to.
    • The article is full of references to the controversial CCS and only calls for the “substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems,” – a far cry from the use of CCS for hard-to-decarbonize industries as envisaged by the EU.
    • Article 115 specifies adaptation finance needs of 215 to 387 billion dollars annually until 2030 for developing countries. It is unclear who is supposed to provide it.

    However, there are also points that the EU welcomes:

    • For example, Article 29 describes the urgent need for a global peak in emissions “at the latest before 2025” and “rapid, deep and sustained reductions” in emissions to achieve minus 43 percent by 2030 and net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
    • The text highlights the importance of oceans and nature for climate action.

    What is Al Jaber’s goal?

    Overall, critics complain that the text has internal contradictions and lacks direction. It is also unclear why such a surprisingly unbalanced text was presented in the first place. It can hardly be due to a lack of experience on the part of Al Jaber’s team. Over the past year, the UAE has recruited a high-profile team of advisors for the presidency. So far, this group, which also includes seasoned former UNFCCC experts, has mastered all the procedural challenges of COP28 with flying colors.

    This makes Al Jaber’s motives for presenting such a text, which has met with fierce resistance from many parts of the conference, all the more puzzling now. A president who was eyed with suspicion because of his background in the oil business, but then spent a year traveling the world to listen and organize the most inclusive COP ever, is presenting a text that makes many countries feel unheard. On the last official day of COP28, pressing questions now arise:

    • Did he try to put climate action frontrunners in a difficult position? Now, they have to negotiate their terms, like “phase out” into the text instead of defending an existing text against criticism.
    • Has his team deliberately chosen a weak and unacceptable text – so that the next, possibly still unambitious, text will be regarded as a significant improvement?
    • Is the pressure from its large neighbor Saudi Arabia too strong, which, according to many observers and with the support of OPEC, worked massively against the end of fossil fuels during the talks at the COP and even at the G20?
    • Is Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber still the “honest broker” between the positions of individual countries that a COP president needs to be to be successful?
    • Is the coalition of progressive states around the EU prepared to let COP28 fall through if they don’t get a decision that even comes close to a fossil fuel phase-out?
    • Will the High Ambition Coalition return with power and possible new members?
    • How will the dispute and possible failure of COP28 affect the UN and the multilateral order? And how will it affect the Emirates’ international reputation as a mediator between Europe, Asia and Africa, between the Global North and South?

    The only thing that seems certain is that the conference will hardly end on time on Tuesday.

    • COP28
    • Fossil fuels
    • UNFCCC

    The strategy of the vulnerable: Forging alliances, as interests require

    Kokosinsel, australisches Seegebiet
    Island states are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The picture shows Cocos Island, Australian sea area.

    COP28 in Dubai is something of a rollercoaster ride for vulnerable and poor developing countries – which are part of the G77 group and China in UN climate negotiations. They experienced highs when the loss and damage fund, with an initial capitalization of over 700 million dollars, finally began its work. They had to accept defeats, such as the blockade during negotiations of climate change adaptation and the still unresolved decision on phasing out fossil fuels.

    But one thing is clear: The strategy of poor countries united in the group of “least developed countries” (LDCs) and small island states (SIDS) has changed. They have become more flexible and more diverse. In this way, poor countries have fuelled the dynamics within the G77 – and yet kept the group together.

    Strategy against the traditional policy of the big players

    The small island states and the least developed countries have learnt from the past two years: They must pull out all the stops through strategic partnerships and cooperation with other countries to maintain the 1.5-degree limit. But they cannot rely solely on the protection of the G77 group and China, but must seek support and recognition for their “special circumstances.” John Silk, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Marshall Islands, told Table.Media: “Partnership and co-operation will get results.”

    It is also a strategy against the traditional policy of the big countries: In the past, both the established developed countries and the influential emerging economies have attempted to exploit the poor and vulnerable countries for their own benefit in climate negotiations. The countries from the Global North tried to use them to break up the bloc of the G77 and China. The G77 and China, in turn, brought them onto their side to exert more influence in the negotiations as a larger bloc.

    The vulnerable countries now pursue a pragmatic and issue-based approach in Dubai. Internally, they call it the “cafeteria” approach: It means seeking and offering partnerships with countries or negotiating blocs that are best suited to fulfill the demands of the LDCs and SIDS. In Sharm El-Sheikh, they called on larger developing countries such as China and the Gulf oil states to make a financial contribution. In Dubai, they focused on urging emerging economies to show more ambitious climate action.

    Reasons of the big players against the fossil phase-out

    However, the major developing and emerging countries in the G77 group and China have their own reasons for resisting the call to phase out fossil fuels: Some do not want to have their energy and climate policies dictated to them; after all, their dependence on fossil fuels is often high. Others oppose specific sector targets. And others point out that their energy needs are increasing, but their resources for expanding renewable energies are limited.

    Tina Steege, climate ambassador for the Marshall Islands, nevertheless calls for solidarity: “We expect the developing countries to stand by us here at COP28,” she told Table.Media. “Large developing countries like China and India must show solidarity with us. We are a country where continued fossil fuel extraction is not only a threat to our economy, but also to our entire territory. How can you know that an entire country could become uninhabitable and not show solidarity?”

    To advance the phase-out of fossil fuels at COP28, the vulnerable countries have now allied themselves with wealthy developed countries. However, this alliance can hardly be translated to other negotiating tracks.

    Little trust in the US

    Poor countries recognize that the EU is firmly standing by their side because the Green Deal and its implementation force them to do so. For its part, the US supports the demand for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency. But the Global South has little trust in them.

    One of the reasons is that the United States has always held back when it comes to financing global climate action: At the start of the summit in Dubai, for example, the world’s largest economy announced a contribution of 17.5 million US dollars to the loss and damage fund, while Germany and the United Arab Emirates pledged 100 million each.

    Adaptation: G77 and China remain united

    However, in the negotiations on adaptation to climate change, the vulnerable countries remain a firm part of the group of developing countries of the G77 and China. The wishes of the developing countries for the global adaptation target to be adopted in Dubai vary. But their demands largely align: They all want clear, time-limited targets for specific adaptation measures, such as early warning systems or adequate water supplies, and more support from wealthy countries, including funding.

    Adaptation has traditionally been a priority of developing countries, which are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and are rarely able to react adequately. The resistance of developed countries, spearheaded by the United States, against targets and funding for adaptation is holding the G77 together.

    Although the EU has made efforts to reach out to the African countries – Germany announced 60 million dollars for the UN Adaptation Fund at the end of the conference and Austria pledged 35 million dollars. However, these efforts have so far not changed the unity of the G77 countries regarding adaptation.

    For the poorest of the poor, the SIDS and LDCs, the essence of their strategy remains the same: emphasizing their vulnerability: “Our message to the world is that you cannot build your economy at the expense of the vulnerable,” said Marshall Islands Climate Ambassador Tina Steege.

    • Africa
    • China
    • COP28
    • Developing countries

    News

    International emissions trading: US and EU have different interests

    Some technical details of Article 6.2 of the Paris Climate Agreement are still unclear. It is designed to facilitate trading carbon credits between countries and allow the purchasing country to include them in its nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

    In practice, this means that a country that has already fulfilled its own NDC promotes forest conservation or reforestation projects, for instance. The resulting carbon reduction achievements can be sold as carbon credits. The idea is to incentivize global emission reductions and establish an international carbon market.

    COP28 is now to determine who will certify and register such projects, how transparent the trade will be and what the consequences will be in the event of non-compliance. The negotiations in Dubai are being delayed in particular because the EU and the USA have fundamentally different ideas.

    EU and USA disagree

    The EU favors introducing the strictest possible, transparent and verifiable rules for certification. Registration should be managed by a state authority that collects information on carbon reduction projects. This information should also be transparent and comprehensible for everyone. Sensitive business data is only to be treated confidentially in exceptional cases and with justification.

    The USA wants to impose fewer barriers and relies on the free market. The private sector is supposed to handle registration itself, as it is faster and more efficient so that trading can begin as quickly as possible. Observers also believe private companies could still trade carbon credits should Donald Trump once again become US President and withdraw from the Paris Agreement. The US also wants less restrictive rules for classifying business information as confidential.

    The USA is not the only country to favor a softer implementation of Article 6.2. The so-called “Likeminded Developing Countries,” a group including Saudi Arabia and China, also support a softer framework for intergovernmental emissions trading – albeit for different reasons. According to observers, they hope to be able to “buy off” their emissions as easily as possible.

    That is why Gilles Dufrasne from Carbon Market Watch believes no agreement on Article 6.2 in Dubai may be reached. “It’s better not to have an agreement than to have a lax system that doesn’t set really strict rules.” Dufrasne calls for consequences for those who do not comply with the rules. “Certificates that do not comply with the rules should not be allowed to be sold or used,” he told Table.Media. luk

    Study: USA and EU must finance fossil fuel phase-out

    To limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, many Western countries would have to stop using coal, oil and gas soon after 2030. This is according to an NGO report recently presented at COP28. The authors calculated phase-out dates for various countries based on their wealth and dependence on fossil fuels. The wealthier a country and the lower its dependency, the earlier the calculated phase-out date. Wealthy countries such as the USA, Norway, Canada and Germany, as well as emerging economies such as China and Russia, would have to phase out coal, oil and gas shortly after 2030 or before 2035. This would give countries with even higher dependency or less financial capacity, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, or even the poorest countries, such as South Sudan, more time to make the final phase-out.

    The authors write that the phase-out dates are “enormously challenging” and are earlier than the dates previously communicated by countries. “However, this is the only way CO2 emissions can conceivably be kept within the nearly depleted 1.5 °C budget,” the report states.

    Historic polluters have a duty

    In addition, many countries would require financial help to restructure their economies and make the phase-out possible in the first place. Without financial support, there is a risk of “energy poverty, loss of public services, and unemployment.” The authors demand that wealthy countries and those that have contributed significantly to historic emissions must provide this financial support. Due to its high level of prosperity and historical responsibility, the United States would have to bear the bulk of 46 percent of the financial support – according to conservative calculations, this would be almost 100 billion US dollars annually. The EU would account for 20 percent of the support and Japan 9 percent. nib

    • Coal phase-out
    • Fossil fuels

    Renewable energies have tripled worldwide since 2014

    Over half of all countries have tripled their renewable energy capacity in the last ten years. Worldwide, this figure tripled between 2014 and 2022. This is according to a new report by Zero Carbon Analytics. The report predicts 2023 will be another record year by a wide margin, with over 500 gigawatts added.

    The report shows that almost 360 billion US dollars were invested in renewables in the first half of 2023, with two-thirds going to solar energy. A large part (65 percent) of the investments in 2022 came from Asia, with China accounting for 80 percent of the Asian share. The massive investments of recent years have drastically reduced costs. On average, the cost of photovoltaic systems, wind power, heat pumps and batteries decreased by 80 percent between 2010 and 2022 – despite inflation.

    The following picture emerges for the different regions of the world:

    • Middle East: Capacity grew by 11 percent between 2021 and 2022, the second-largest percentage increase in the world. Solar capacity grew 30-fold between 2015 and 2022, while wind energy grew three-fold.
    • Latin America: Forecasts predict that wind and solar capacity will double between 2022 and 2027.
    • Africa: Renewable capacity doubled to 59 gigawatts between 2012 and 2022 — annual growth was eight percent.
    • EU: A total of 90 gigawatts of new wind and solar capacity was added in 2020 and 2021. Forecasts suggest an additional 60 gigawatts in 2023.
    • USA: In 2022, ten gigawatts of solar and eight gigawatts of wind power capacity were added. An additional 25 gigawatts of solar power is forecasted for 2023.
    • China: The People’s Republic accounts for around half of the global expansion in 2022. On average, wind power capacity doubled roughly every 1.5 years between 2000 and 2022, while solar capacity doubled about every 2.5 years. nib
    • Solar

    Germany provides 60 million euros for adaptation financing

    Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Environment Minister Steffi Lemke have announced at COP28 in Dubai that Germany will contribute another 60 million euros to the UN Adaptation Fund. Each ministry will provide half of the sum. Germany had already paid the same amount into the fund in 2022. This makes the country the largest donor.

    In total, the fund had set itself the goal of raising 300 million US dollars this year. But only 187.7 million US dollars have been donated so far. Alongside Germany, other European countries and regions, Canada and South Korea have also given money.

    Adaptation finance is particularly controversial at COP28. Above all, developing countries demand concrete commitments in connection with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), which is to be adopted in Dubai. However, developed countries are unwilling to make these commitments under the GGA at the current summit.

    A touch of solidarity

    Jan Kowalzig, climate finance expert at the NGO Oxfam, saw the fact that the adaptation fund missed the target of 300 million as “another damper on the current climate conference.” One can “understand very well that the developing countries do not trust the developed countries when it comes to financial support,” Kowalzig told Table.Media in Dubai. “The developed countries like to make big speeches about their solidarity with the affected countries of the Global South. But not enough to replenish the Adaptation Fund with corresponding pledges.”

    Nevertheless, in light of Germany’s tight budget situation, Kowalzig praised the German contribution to the fund as an “important sign of solidarity.” With its pledge, the German government shows that it will continue to support particularly vulnerable countries in adapting to climate change.

    The global Adaptation Fund has provided around 923.5 million US dollars for projects since 2010, including 132 specific projects in almost 100 countries for 36 million beneficiaries. kul/ae

    Argentina’s new president intends to stay in the Paris Agreement

    On Sunday, right-wing populist Javier Milei took office as President of Argentina. On the same day, the 72-year-old announced on X that he had signed a decree reducing the number of ministries in the country from 18 to 9, including the Ministry of the Environment.

    Milei’s climate negotiator, Marcia Levaggi, told the news agency Reuters at COP28 that Argentina had no intention of withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement. During his election campaign, Milei himself called climate change a “hoax.” The country also wants to stick to its net-zero target for 2050. Following the abolition of the Ministry of the Environment, the matter will be divided between all other ministries and will not be a lower priority going forward, said Levaggi.

    In the election campaign, Milei said he would not adhere to the Paris Agreement because he would not tolerate “impositions from outside.” He also stated that there would be no measures for forest conservation or indigenous rights under him.

    Marcia Levaggi previously served as Argentina’s ambassador to Senegal and was only offered the role of climate negotiator last week. She has decades of experience in this field and has worked for the UN Adaptation Fund. Levaggi led the negotiations for Argentina at COP25. It was also recently revealed that Javier Milei did not want to bring Argentina into the BRICS alliance as planned. rtr/kul

    Opinion

    Supporting a just energy transition in Africa

    By Amos Wemanya
    Amos Wemanya is Senior Advisor for Renewable Energy and Just Transition at the environmental NGO Power Shift Africa.

    Africa’s unprecedented renewable energy potential offers an excellent basis for transforming its energy sector. Nevertheless, Africa’s electricity supply is lagging far behind. Most people in sub-Saharan Africa live in severe energy poverty. Almost half of Africans (46 percent) still have no access to electricity in their homes, and one billion have no access to clean, low-emission cooking facilities.

    Therefore, efforts to achieve universal access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity by 2030 must be at the forefront of African energy transition strategies to effectively combat poverty, open up new economic opportunities and promote gender equality.

    For decades, Africa has invested billions of US dollars in fossil fuel-based energy systems. Fossil fuels have failed to provide hundreds of millions of people with access to modern energy.

    In line with the principles of equity

    Africa has more potential for renewable energy than any other continent. Renewable energy is the cheapest option and the best investment for Africa. However, Africa’s current energy generation mix still relies on fossil fuels, while renewable energy sources account for almost 18 percent of electricity generation.

    Tripling global renewable energy capacity has received much political support at the ongoing climate conference. To date, over 120 countries have signed the pledge. However, this global renewable energy target must be in line with the principles of equity. An effective global renewable energy target requires new financing mechanisms and alternative business strategies for actors in the value chain, especially for the most vulnerable regions.

    Renewable energy systems can create democratic, decentralized, community-owned, fit-for-purpose energy systems for Africa. This is especially true for remote rural communities in Africa. However, developing these renewable energy projects would require both financial and technical support from developed countries.

    Expediting substantial, predictable and additional financial and technical resources through appropriate instruments to reduce the costs of the energy transition for the people and modernize the electricity grids – including subsidized loans, guarantees and grants – must be a priority.

    ‘Just one side of a complex story’

    Compared to the financing of fossil fuels, current financial flows for climate action in Africa are minuscule. Fossil fuels directly impact the lives of the people of Africa through the pollution resulting from their extraction and combustion. However, the fossil fuel industry is only propagating one side of a complex story by claiming that extraction is a source of public revenue, jobs and access to energy. However, the experiences that African communities have had with oil, gas and coal producers tell a very different story.

    Promoting fossil fuels in Africa hinders several sustainable development goals, including ensuring health and well-being for all, gender equality, climate action, ending hunger and poverty, clean water and sanitation for all, and universal access to electricity.

    Africa has consistently supported the global goal of limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This was demonstrated by the fact that 54 African countries supported the 1.5-degree target, which led to its inclusion in the Paris Agreement.

    In September, African heads of state and government met in Nairobi, Kenya, and agreed on the goal of increasing the installed capacity of renewables in Africa from 56 gigawatts to 300 gigawatts by 2030. According to estimates, this will cost 600 billion US dollars. Africa is going to need support to achieve this ambitious goal.

    “Provide adequate financial resources”

    However, this requires abandoning the current unbalanced support from countries of the Global North, as seen recently with the Dash for Africa’s Gas. Africa will need genuine support and its partners would have to be responsible cooperation partners to limit global temperature rise and avert a catastrophic future.

    At present, only two percent of global investment in renewable energy goes to Africa. Even more alarming is that the cost of capital for renewable energy projects in Africa can be up to seven times higher than in other regions, especially in the Global North.

    The ongoing discussions and commitments towards a global renewable energy target must lead to adequate and additional financing to help Africa realize its potential and its primary need to meet the energy needs of its population. This must also help Africa achieve its sustainable development goals and strengthen its resilience to the climate crisis. Those who can pay the most must bear the greatest cost burden, namely the rich countries that have already benefited the most from fossil fuels.

    ‘Ensuring fair transitions’

    At this COP, discussions on just transitions must ensure that a framework for their funding is created that protects workers, communities and economies from negative consequences.

    Developed countries and international financial institutions should refrain from supporting the expansion of fossil fuels in Africa and other developing countries. Instead, they should invest their resources and expertise in promoting decentralized, community-owned renewable energy solutions.

    It is essential to actively involve civil society organizations, local communities and indigenous groups in the decision-making processes related to energy projects. They must take ownership of renewable energy initiatives in their countries and ensure that the benefits of the energy transition are harnessed locally.

    Amos Wemanya is Senior Advisor for Renewable Energy and Just Energy Transition at the environmental NGO Power Shift Africa.

    • Africa
    • Climate Justice
    • COP28
    • Renewable energies

    Dessert

    Veteran summit reporter on his way to the possibly all-important interview appointment at the COP.

    Climate summits always involve very, very long walks. Especially in Dubai, where more people have gathered than at any other UN climate conference before, and the summit grounds seem like a spacious small town.

    The distances are correspondingly long. 10,000 steps a day? Laughable. COP participants easily walk much longer distances. An unofficial survey among colleagues revealed that some fitness trackers show a 50 percent higher calorie burn since the start of the summit. Leaving all other factors aside, COP participation is very healthy in this respect.

    In Dubai, the morning walk from your hotel to the metro can take several kilometers. On some days, the queues at the security checkpoint at the summit site entrance stretched all the way back to the metro station. In extreme cases, they even looped around the building several times, guided by barriers and controlled by security staff who shouted instructions to the crowd, telling them which way to go.

    Some readers can imagine how this makes you feel. Sheep herds know what it’s like. But, apart from the crowd management, which Dubai has mastered, once you have finally passed the checks, the daily marching inside the summit area is just beginning. And the days are long. It’s not fun for anyone with walking problems.

    What helps? You guessed it: proper footwear. Ministers and leading negotiators would certainly confirm this: The best grasp of the latest linguistic intricacies of summit diplomacy – currently all the rage at COP28: “abated” versus “unabated”is useless if your feet no longer carry you. High heels are thus something for COP newbies (or very, very tough summiteers). However, Team Table rarely saw such impractical footwear in Dubai.

    Seasoned COP champs like us wear Birkenstocks, Crocks, trainers or running shoes, often in bright neon colors, some even marathon-tested. Particularly savvy climate summit marchers also swear by supportive insoles and have a pain-relieving ointment in their luggage, just in case. As old summit veterans, we at Table.Media are, naturally, adequately equipped. Otherwise, we wouldn’t get very far – or only very slowly – which would be fatal in Dubai, especially just before the end.

    Instead, we are getting ready for the crucial home stretch. When we return to Germany, some of us from Team Table will put our tired feet up for a while. Others – as we know from very reliable sources – can’t help but continue to work tirelessly on climate reporting even after such a UN summit marathon. They are certainly already mentally preparing for the next endurance event. ae

    Team table and their associated feet at the morning briefing in Dubai.
    • COP28

    Climate.Table editorial team

    CLIMATE.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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