Today we are mainly looking to the (south) east: On Sunday, Austria will elect a new parliament, and we are taking stock of the climate achievements of the outgoing government. Tenor: In their first time in government, the Green Party has implemented some things that Germany can only dream of – climate money, cutting transport emissions – but many other things have fallen by the wayside. And it is questionable whether the party will be able to convert its work into votes – after all, in a country where the alleged “climate hysteria,” as the populists call global warming, was just about up to its neck in the form of flooding.
Further to the east, the government of Azerbaijan is getting the worst possible report card for its climate policy: A new study has criticized the COP29 host for rising emissions, a gas and oil-dominated economy, and no roadmap toward net zero. The criticism of the COP preparations is also getting louder and louder.
And then some interesting news from the Far East: According to a new study, China is apparently paying far more for global climate financing than previously assumed. This could make the debates on the new financial target in Baku even more interesting and soften a few fronts. After all, the study comes from the USA.
Be it in the east, west, north or south, we’ll stay on it!
Your Bernhard Pötter
Feature
Azerbaijan: How the COP host waters down its climate plans
Heavy dependence on fossil fuels: Azerbaijan’s gas reserve.
Two months before the COP29 conference in Baku, the host country received poor scores for its climate policy and preparations: A new report by the think tank cooperation Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates the country’s policies and plans as “critically insufficient.” And the COP29 presidency’s official proposals for the conference outcomes have so far failed to include the 2030 climate targets agreed at COP28 last year.
Rising instead of falling emissions by 2030
The CAT analysis concludes that the climate policy and climate targets of the host of the next climate conference “reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.” In detail, the report criticizes:
Azerbaijan plans to increase greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 instead of reducing them, an increase of around 20 percent from the current 72 million tons. Methane emissions from the oil and gas business are set to rise by 2030 instead of falling by 66 percent, as required for a 1.5-degree pathway.
According to the analysis, it appears that Azerbaijan “abandoned its initial 2030 target,” which would contradict the agreements in the Paris Agreement. After all, the country originally aspired to achieve a reduction of 28 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. Its NDC climate plan, which will be renewed in 2023, now only stipulates a decrease of 22 percent – and even that is only possible with international aid.
However, the country is campaigning with the other “troika” members for new and ambitious NDCs. Along with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Brazil, Azerbaijan has pledged to present an NDC in early 2025 that meets the 1.5-degree pathway – although each country is to individually define what can be considered a 1.5-degree pathway.
Azerbaijan depends on oil and gas: 94 percent of its electricity is generated from fossil fuels, and 60 percent of state revenue comes from fossil fuels. The government is planning to further expand gas production in particular, partly at the behest of the EU, which wants to replace Russian gas.
According to CAT, the planned expansion of renewables will hardly reduce global emissions – because the resulting gas savings will be exported (primarily to the EU) and then burned.
Azerbaijan has neither a net-zero target nor a long-term decarbonization strategy.
CAT estimates that a globally comparable “fair” effort by the country to fight climate change would mean practically halving its greenhouse gas emissions to 35 million tons by 2030 – and not increasing them to around 90 million tons, as currently planned.
What does the ‘troika’ achieve?
It is no coincidence that the CAT analysis is published during the UN General Assembly in New York. The “troika” members of the COP presidencies of the UAE (COP28), Azerbaijan (COP29) and Brazil (COP30) plan to meet there. So far, this unique cooperation between COP presidencies has hardly had any visible impact on the UN climate process. Unlike COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber a year ago, the designated head of COP29, Environment Minister Mukhtar Babajev, has a much lower international profile. As part of the troika “Mission 1.5,” Brazil’s President Lula announced on the sidelines of the General Assembly that Brazil would present 1.5-degree-compatible NDCs by 2024.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is urging a reduction in methane emissions from oil and gas production. Azerbaijan also joined the “Methane Pledge” set up for this purpose in the spring – but instead of reducing its methane emissions, the country is facing a rapid increase.
Targets for Baku conceal targets for Dubai
There are also doubts regarding Babayev’s plans for results in Baku. In a letter to the delegations, the COP President-designate listed 14 potential outcomes that could be achieved outside of the COP negotiations. However, he does not mention the implementation of the key resolutions of COP28: transitioning away from fossil fuels, tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. Instead, his plans include
a Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) made up of voluntary contributions from fossil fuel producing countries and an initiative for green investment,
voluntary commitments to “green energy zones and corridors,” the expansion of energy storage and hydrogen,
a peace initiative at COP, and
various statements on waste, agriculture, digitalization, tourism, water, and “healthy cities.”
Climate fund of oil countries purely voluntary
Azerbaijan’s push for a voluntary climate fund from oil and gas countries, the Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF), is a watered-down vision of an initial idea: Originally, a mandatory levy on fossil fuel producers was to raise several billion US dollars annually to finance green investments and climate aid for damage in poor countries. However, the oil states rejected this idea.
The CFAF is now to be filled with a one-off sum of one billion US dollars, with Azerbaijan intending to make a start with an as yet unspecified sum. The fund will be headquartered in Baku and will become active when the money is available and at least ten countries are involved. Half of the money is to be used for mitigation, adaptation and research in poor countries, while the other half is to go towards new NDCs in developing countries. Twenty percent of the fund’s profits are to be reserved to ensure swift aid in the event of climate damage, for example, after storms in island nations. It is still unclear how the fund will differ from the UN’s new loss and damage fund, which is currently set up in the Philippines with around 800 million US dollars.
Andreas Sieber from the climate organization 350.org criticizes that the COP29 presidency “raises serious concerns about its commitment to the energy transition.” The 14 initiatives and the appointment of a subsidiary of the state-owned Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR as a sponsor of the COP show “once again Azerbaijan’s ignorance and lack of leadership.” The message is that “the door is wide open for oil and gas deals. This urgently needs to change.”
Azerbaijan
Climate diplomacy
COP28
COP29
Energiewende
Translation missing.
Election check Austria: Climate policy cuts emissions and Green Party poll ratings
Pride or regret? Climate Minister Leonore Gewessler not only had to work hard for Austria’s national climate plan.
On September 29, Austria will elect a new National Council. The climate performance of the last legislature is characterized by the first government participation of the Green Party as a smaller partner of the conservative ÖVP. Central to this were a carbon tax with reimbursement to the population, the national climate plan (NECP) and the controversial approval of the EU Nature Restoration Law by Climate and Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler. Other important laws are still missing or have been watered down. In energy policy, some trends even head in the wrong direction, although carbon emissions have fallen significantly.
Climate policy was hardly an issue during the election campaign itself. Then came the flood disaster – and with it, climate policy and renaturation became part of the debate after all. According to a recent study, climate change made the floods twice as likely as in a scenario without global warming – and increased their intensity by seven percent. Nevertheless, the Green Party only polls around nine percent. The winner of the flood is probably the ÖVP, thanks to its crisis management.
Green Climate Action Minister Gewessler was also responsible for the energy, transport and infrastructure portfolios. Before their surprising government participation, the Green Party was not even represented in parliament and its organization was weakened. It had to lay off over a hundred employees and lost its budget and office space. Their informal influence, for example, via the social partnership, is also significantly less than that of other parties.
Emissions fall, but not fast enough
Austria’s emissions fell by 6.4 percent to 68 million tons in 2023, for the first time in all sectors – including transport. “We have made more progress on climate policy in recent years than ever before,” Lukas Hammer, Green Party climate and energy spokesperson, told Table.Briefings. “But this is not yet enough in terms of intensity and speed to meet our net zero target.”
The coalition agreement between the ÖVP and the Green Party set the goal of achieving net zero by 2040. This goal never became law. Every year, greenhouse gas emissions would have to fall by a similar percentage to the previous year. Within the EU, Austria is also obliged to reduce emissions by 48 percent by 2030 compared to 2005. According to the Austrian Environment Agency, “additional concrete and ambitious measures” in line with the national climate plan (NECP) are urgently needed to achieve this. Austria was the last EU member state to submit a revised draft in August. However, the final, updated climate plan is still not available.
Plan: More CCS and hydrogen, fewer climate-damaging subsidies
For example, the draft includes a stronger focus on CCS and hydrogen. Two million tons of CO2 per year are to be saved by gradually reducing fossil fuel subsidies. However, the ÖVP wants to retain the commuter allowance and diesel privilege. “I don’t see how this will save enough,” says Katharina Rogenhofer, Director of the Kontext Institut für Klimafragen, in an interview with Table.Briefings.
The national climate plan also abolishes the sector targets. The government agreement had included them in the Austrian Climate Change Act – a framework law which, according to Hammer, was intended to define “responsibilities, budgets and mechanisms in the event of a deviation from targets.” It has been outstanding for over 1,000 days. The ÖVP is blocking it. “It would be important to define a framework and ensure national planning security,” says Rogenhofer, referring to the next government.
Share of renewables falls, important laws failed
Although emissions are now falling, so is the share of renewables. According to the NECP plan, renewable energy accounted for 36.5 percent in 2020 but only 33.8 percent in 2022. This can be attributed to new calculation methods, but also to rising energy demand while the expansion of renewables is stalling in some areas:
The heating transition is only making slow progress. The Renewable Heat Act failed and was only passed in a watered-down version. For example, it “no longer regulates the conversion of existing oil and gas heating systems,” criticizes Rogenhofer. In addition, 1.3 million households continue to be heated with fossil fuels. According to the industry association “Wärmepumpe Austria,” sales of heat pumps slumped by 30 percent in the first half of 2024.
Austria is on track for the Renewable Energy Expansion Act regarding photovoltaic expansion. Data from the regulatory authority E-Control shows constant expansion rates of 500 to 600 megawatts per quarter-partly thanks to subsidies and tax breaks. However, energy expert Christoph Dolna-Gruber from the Austrian Energy Agency writes on X that the Electricity Industry Act is required for integration into the electricity system.
The share of Russian gas remains high, the Renewable Gas Act for more green biogas has failed. The Greens, ÖVP and SPÖ blame each other for blocking the law, which would require a two-thirds majority.
Hydrogen subsidies are being ramped up. The Austrian government plans to create 1 gigawatt of electrolysis capacity by 2030, partly with the help of the Hydrogen Promotion Act. According to the BMK’s implementation report, 18 megawatts of electrolyzer capacity are installed – less than two percent of the 2030 target.
No speed limit, but climate ticket and higher consumption tax
Emissions in the transport sector have climbed by more than 50 percent since 1990. Since 2019 – partly due to Covid lockdowns – they have been falling again. Across the EU, Austria has the longest distance traveled by train per inhabitant. However, it also has the densest road network. However, Chancellor Karl Nehammer considers Austria to be a “car country.” His ÖVP opposes the planned EU combustion car ban and the 100 km/h speed limit on freeways; instead, it supports e-fuels for cars.
This made it difficult for the Green Party to push through their demands – even though Climate Action Minister Gewessler is also Transport Minister. “But there are many issues that fall to the federal states,” says Rogenhofer, explaining their limited influence in federalist Austria. The Green Party is in government in only two of the nine federal states, the ÖPV in seven.
Significant changes in the transport sector included
The introduction of the annual climate ticket for 1,095 euros per person is valid for all of Austria. Since 2021, the number of active tickets has tripled to 300,000.
A budget increase for cycling and pedestrian traffic. The ÖVP and the Green Party wanted to increase the share of bicycles from 7 to 13 percent by 2025. The budget was multiplied and rights for cyclists and pedestrians were extended. According to the mobility organization VCÖ, the current share of bicycle traffic is ten percent.
Cancellation/stop of several climate-damaging transport projects. For example, the construction of the Lobau tunnel and freeway as well as the S18 expressway have been suspended. It remains unclear what will happen with the third runway for Vienna-Schwechat Airport.
A higher standard consumption tax (NoVA). Hammer considers the NoVA reform one of the “most powerful measures in climate action” – under the radar of the public and the ÖVP. Instead, the latter was pleased to have “negotiated away the abolition of the diesel privilege.” While emission-free vehicles do not pay NoVA, the tax increases with the rising CO2 values of combustion engines. “But you would have to drive several million kilometers with the car to recoup the higher NoVA when you buy the car,” explains Hammer. And it was precisely this purchase price increase that his party negotiated into the “eco-social tax reform.”
Like the climate ticket, the eco-social tax reform was a product of the Covid crisis. Both parties needed success: The legislative package introduced tax breaks for companies on the one hand and a carbon tax on the other, whose revenue is paid out via the climate bonus – similar to the climate money. One ton of CO2 currently costs 45 euros in the non-ETS sector. According to calculations by the German Environment Agency, however, each ton would have to cost more than 250 euros to include the ecological costs and achieve a steering effect.
Climate Council without impact and more climate financing
The Green Party also fought hard for the Climate Council. Representing Austria, 100 volunteers drew up 93 recommendations. Hammer, who negotiated the resolution, considers it a success: “What this mini-Austria has negotiated is astonishingly progressive. They could also have said, ‘We don’t want to change anything’.” However, towards the end of the Climate Council, the ÖVP began to delegitimize it. ÖVP climate spokesman Johannes Schmuckenschlager, for example, called it an “utterly useless institution.” Its recommendations have largely been ignored and hardly implemented. No commitments were made.
In addition, public climate financingwas increased by 60 percent in 2022, the contribution to the loss and damage fund was raised by 15 million to 25 million euros. Around 5.7 billion euroswill be provided for the industry’s transformation by 2030.
Election outlook: Still in single digits despite achievements?
Shortly before the National Council elections on September 29, the Green Party is back in single digits in the polls. Momentum like in 2019, when “Fridays for Future” marched and swept the Greens into parliament, is missing. Although more people took to the streets again after the flood disaster, the Greens’ poll ratings barely improved.
So far, the ÖVP seems to benefit most from the disaster thanks to its role as disaster manager. Two new polls show them neck and neck with the FPÖ. The SPÖ is a few percentage points behind at 20 percent and the Greens at nine percent. Rogenhofer believes climate policy will “definitely become an election issue.” However, it is unlikely that the ÖVP and the Greens will form a new coalition – most likely “mathematically as part of a three-party coalition with the SPÖ.”
Climate policy
E-Fuels
Klimapolitik
Renaturierung
The Greens
Translation missing.
Events
Sept. 26, 11 a.m. , Brussels/Online PresentationFuture of the EU ETS: ETS Coverage The European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition is presenting its EU ETS Coverage Report. The report examines the future of the EU ETS system. Info
Sept. 29, Austria Elections National Council election The Austrians elect a new National Council. The National Council is the second chamber of the Austrian parliament.
Sept. 30 – Oct. 2, Geneva ConferenceDrought Resilience +10 Following the first high-level meeting on national drought policies in 2013, the Drought Resilience +10 conference aims to strengthen and accelerate drought action on the ground. It brings together countries and experts to review progress and lessons learned in drought management and explore and define a common path towards a more drought-resilient world. Info
Sept. 30, 1 p.m., Berlin ConferenceAn Infrastructural Path to Green Industry and Jobs Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), the Royal Danish Embassy in Berlin and the think tank EUROPA co-host a high-level conference on the future of cross-border energy infrastructure in Europe.Info
Oct. 1, 2 p.m. Brussels/Online ConferenceBellona Climate Action Conference 2024 The NGO Bellona is hosting this event to celebrate its 30th anniversary. This event will discuss strategies and solutions to accelerate industrial decarbonization, focusing on the necessary steps at the policymaking level to achieve the EU’s climate objectives by 2030.Info
Oct 1-3, Rio de Janeiro G20 meetingClimate and Environmental Sustainability WG The Working Group in Climate and Environmental Sustainability will meet as part of the G20 cycle. The working meeting on Energy Transition will take place on October 4. Info
News
Climate in Numbers: Melting ice threatens whale routes
The effects of global warming are having a particularly severe impact on the planet’s largest mammals: Every spring and fall, thousands of bowhead, beluga and narwhal whales migrate north and south like other whale species and increasingly have problems with the dwindling ice cover. This is now shown in a new report by the environmental foundation WWF, which maps whale migration routes around the North Pole for the first time.
The report warns that the “blue corridors” where the whales stay and move are largely identical to shipping routes. However, this disturbs the marine mammals’ habitat due to underwater noise and the risk of collisions. With dwindling ice sheets, shipping routes in the former “eternal ice” have increased by 37 percent between 2013 and 2023, and the distances traveled have doubled. The WWF calls on shipping companies to consider the animals when planning their routes, travel more slowly and reduce underwater noise.
The three whale species that only inhabit Arctic waters are under additional threat from the melting ice because they are losing feeding grounds and sanctuaries. As the Arctic is warming around four times faster than the global average, the sea ice in the far north is melting rapidly: The extent of the Arctic ice has decreased significantly in recent years. In 2024, the minimum was only 4.3 million square kilometers. Since records began, the last 18 years have also seen the smallest extent of ice around the North Pole. bpo
Eisschmelze
Study: How many billions China pays for climate finance
“If you’re able, like China, to go to the moon on a mission, then you’re also able to pay more in the domain of climate action,” EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told Bloomberg TV. He said Beijing is now rich enough to contribute to global efforts to provide funding for developing countries to help them cope with the effects of global warming. China has so far claimed that global climate finance is the responsibility of the wealthiest countries, which have produced the most carbon emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
Meanwhile, a new study shows that the People’s Republic is already spending a lot of money on international climate finance: The country has already paid around 45 billion US dollars between 2013 and 2022, an average of around 4.5 billion US dollars a year. This is the result of a recent study by the US think tank World Resource Institute (WRI).
The study notes that the data situation is not simple. Due to its official status as an emerging economy under the Paris Agreement, China is not obliged to provide international financial aid or to be transparent about it, although it can pay voluntarily. The sum of 45 billion US dollars consists of:
bilateral financial aid,
multilateral financial aid,
export loans and
mobilized private financing.
According to WRI, the sum of 45 billion accounts for around six percent of total global climate finance. By comparison, Germany is paying around six billion euros, while the US contributed around 5.8 billion dollars in 2021 and is on track to contribute 11.4 billion dollars by 2024.
The report will generate interest in the run-up to COP29, where a new global target for climate finance (NQCG) will be adopted. So far, countries have very different ideas about how much money should be mobilized beyond the 100 billion US dollars pledged annually – and who should pay for it. Western developed countries, in particular, are pushing for China and other relatively rich emerging economies to also contribute. bpo/ari
China
Climate financing
COP29
COP29
Cooling: These are the advantages of sustainable solutions
2.4 billion people worldwide are highly exposed to extreme heat – and the number is increasing due to global warming. As a result, the demand for cooling solutions is growing. In developing countries, sustainable cooling solutions could reduce cooling-related emissions by almost 50 percent, reducing the cost of electricity, equipment and energy sector investment by eight trillion US dollars by 2050. This is the conclusion of the report “Cooler Finance: How to Fund the Developing World’s Growing Cooling Needs” by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) and the International Finance Cooperation (IFC) published on Wednesday at the UN General Assembly in New York.
At COP28, over 60 countries declared their intention to reduce cooling emissions by 68 percent by 2050 under the “Global Cooling Pledge.” One cause of greenhouse gases in the cooling sector is electricity consumption. Added to this is the climate impact of escaping coolants, which is particularly high compared to CO2, for example, hydrofluorocarbons. According to the UNEP’s Global Cooling Watch 2023 report, 20 percent of the global electricity supply is currently used for cooling, and the demand for cooling could triple by 2050.
Without measures, cooling emissions could surge
The report stresses the need for “cost-effective, energy-efficient and environment-friendly cooling solutions.” To achieve this, it recommends focusing on passive cooling solutions such as insulation, enforcing minimum energy efficiency standards, and accelerating the phase-out of climate-damaging refrigerants. In addition, systematic approaches for cold chains are needed. Current projections indicate that cooling-related emissions would otherwise rise sharply due to population, economic growth and urbanization.
The report estimates that considerable financial resources of between 400 and 800 billion US dollars – including from the private sector – are required for a “transition towards sustainable cooling.” However, the report also sees economic opportunities and investment possibilities: The growing need and demand for cooling solutions means that the market for sustainable cooling solutions is also growing; it could double from 300 billion US dollars per year to 600 billion by 2050. kul
Climate adaptation
COP28
Emissions
United Nations
Flood prevention: Germany plans law amendment
The German Federal Ministry for the Environment plans to respond to the increasing flood risk with a legislative amendment. “The multiple floods this year show us that we are dealing with a new reality,” explained Minister Steffi Lemke (Green Party) on Wednesday. “We must protect people and their belongings, but also our infrastructure, from ever greater floods.” To this end, amendments to the Water Resources Act are planned; A draft bill, which the BMUV has already coordinated with the federal states, is now going through the departmental coordination process. The plan is to have the draft passed by the cabinet before the end of the year.
According to the ministry, the draft stipulates that municipalities must develop concepts for the prevention and handling of heavy rainfall. In addition, bridges are to be kept at a greater distance from the water surface and approval procedures for flood prevention measures are to be accelerated. In the future, flood protection will be mandatory in land use and development planning. The federal states will also have the option of designating areas where no new construction is permitted due to the risk of flooding. The amendment provides no new public funding for the federal states and municipalities responsible for flood prevention.
Most precipitation in twelve months since records began
The Extreme Weather Congress in Hamburg also examines the increase in extreme weather events. At the start of the event, the organizers presented a joint fact paper with the German Weather Service (DWD). It states that every decade in Germany since 1960 has been warmer than the previous. In 2023, the temperature was 2.8 degrees higher than from 1881 to 1910. “We are experiencing unchecked global warming with increasingly severe extreme weather,” explained DWD Executive Director Tobias Fuchs.
There has also been a recent record regarding rain and snow: “The period from July 2023 to June 2024 was the wettest twelve-month episode in Germany since the evaluation began in 1881,” the authors write. Unlike heat, however, it is difficult to prove a clear trend in precipitation. “The relationship between climate change and heavy precipitation is complex and therefore the subject of intensive research,” they say. For some regions, the radar data does indicate a higher frequency of heavy precipitation events. However, the high variability from year to year and the short time frame do not allow any conclusions to be drawn about an increase in extreme events in connection with climate change. mkr
Hochwasser
Why the Green Deal could negatively impact global emissions
The planned greenhouse gas reduction in the EU could lead to a huge emissions spike in other parts of the world. This is the conclusion of an international team of scientists at the University of Groningen led by Klaus Hubacek. Their analysis has recently been published in the journal Nature Sustainability.
The study examined the planned measures of the Green New Deal in the area of agriculture and forestry, including the associated supply chains. It showed that the Green Deal in its current form would lead to a more than two-fold increase in emissions in countries outside the EU compared to the EU-wide reduction target.
Hubacek cited the planting of three billion trees as an example of a measure to increase biodiversity in Europe. As trees need a lot of land, this means that more food will have to be produced elsewhere, for example in Africa or South America. However, this would require additional cropland. “This increases carbon dioxide emissions and reduces biodiversity,” says Hubacek.
Green Deal must be accompanied by CO2 savings within the EU
The EU’s Deforestation Regulation prohibits the importation of products that forest areas have converted into arable land. However, “nothing prevents these countries from growing products for Europe on existing agricultural land and cutting down forests to produce for the local market,” says Hubacek.
In order to minimize the potential negative effects of the Green Deal, the scientists propose three accompanying measures:
A food transition towards the predominantly plant-based “Planetary Health Diet” which would “save a huge amount of carbon dioxide emissions.”
The gradual phase-out of food-based biofuels in the EU would reduce the need for agricultural land.
Supporting developing countries in increasing their agricultural efficiency could also reduce land consumption. ch
Entwaldung
IEA: Tripling renewables feasible
The goal set at COP28 of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 is feasible. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) urges countries to act quickly and install more grid connections and battery storage. In a report published on Tuesday, the IEA stated that favorable economic conditions, “abundant” production potential and policy measures make the target achievable. However, to fully realize it, countries must build 25 million kilometers of transmission lines and add 1,500 gigawatts of energy storage capacity by 2030, a 15-fold increase from current levels.
The report is the first one to outline the specific measures that need to be taken to achieve the COP28 target. “Further international cooperation is vital to deliver fit-for-purpose grids, sufficient energy storage and faster electrification, which are integral to move clean energy transitions quickly and securely,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. According to the report, tripling renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade would reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by ten billion tons. rtr
Today we are mainly looking to the (south) east: On Sunday, Austria will elect a new parliament, and we are taking stock of the climate achievements of the outgoing government. Tenor: In their first time in government, the Green Party has implemented some things that Germany can only dream of – climate money, cutting transport emissions – but many other things have fallen by the wayside. And it is questionable whether the party will be able to convert its work into votes – after all, in a country where the alleged “climate hysteria,” as the populists call global warming, was just about up to its neck in the form of flooding.
Further to the east, the government of Azerbaijan is getting the worst possible report card for its climate policy: A new study has criticized the COP29 host for rising emissions, a gas and oil-dominated economy, and no roadmap toward net zero. The criticism of the COP preparations is also getting louder and louder.
And then some interesting news from the Far East: According to a new study, China is apparently paying far more for global climate financing than previously assumed. This could make the debates on the new financial target in Baku even more interesting and soften a few fronts. After all, the study comes from the USA.
Be it in the east, west, north or south, we’ll stay on it!
Your Bernhard Pötter
Feature
Azerbaijan: How the COP host waters down its climate plans
Heavy dependence on fossil fuels: Azerbaijan’s gas reserve.
Two months before the COP29 conference in Baku, the host country received poor scores for its climate policy and preparations: A new report by the think tank cooperation Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates the country’s policies and plans as “critically insufficient.” And the COP29 presidency’s official proposals for the conference outcomes have so far failed to include the 2030 climate targets agreed at COP28 last year.
Rising instead of falling emissions by 2030
The CAT analysis concludes that the climate policy and climate targets of the host of the next climate conference “reflect minimal to no action and are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit.” In detail, the report criticizes:
Azerbaijan plans to increase greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 instead of reducing them, an increase of around 20 percent from the current 72 million tons. Methane emissions from the oil and gas business are set to rise by 2030 instead of falling by 66 percent, as required for a 1.5-degree pathway.
According to the analysis, it appears that Azerbaijan “abandoned its initial 2030 target,” which would contradict the agreements in the Paris Agreement. After all, the country originally aspired to achieve a reduction of 28 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. Its NDC climate plan, which will be renewed in 2023, now only stipulates a decrease of 22 percent – and even that is only possible with international aid.
However, the country is campaigning with the other “troika” members for new and ambitious NDCs. Along with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Brazil, Azerbaijan has pledged to present an NDC in early 2025 that meets the 1.5-degree pathway – although each country is to individually define what can be considered a 1.5-degree pathway.
Azerbaijan depends on oil and gas: 94 percent of its electricity is generated from fossil fuels, and 60 percent of state revenue comes from fossil fuels. The government is planning to further expand gas production in particular, partly at the behest of the EU, which wants to replace Russian gas.
According to CAT, the planned expansion of renewables will hardly reduce global emissions – because the resulting gas savings will be exported (primarily to the EU) and then burned.
Azerbaijan has neither a net-zero target nor a long-term decarbonization strategy.
CAT estimates that a globally comparable “fair” effort by the country to fight climate change would mean practically halving its greenhouse gas emissions to 35 million tons by 2030 – and not increasing them to around 90 million tons, as currently planned.
What does the ‘troika’ achieve?
It is no coincidence that the CAT analysis is published during the UN General Assembly in New York. The “troika” members of the COP presidencies of the UAE (COP28), Azerbaijan (COP29) and Brazil (COP30) plan to meet there. So far, this unique cooperation between COP presidencies has hardly had any visible impact on the UN climate process. Unlike COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber a year ago, the designated head of COP29, Environment Minister Mukhtar Babajev, has a much lower international profile. As part of the troika “Mission 1.5,” Brazil’s President Lula announced on the sidelines of the General Assembly that Brazil would present 1.5-degree-compatible NDCs by 2024.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is urging a reduction in methane emissions from oil and gas production. Azerbaijan also joined the “Methane Pledge” set up for this purpose in the spring – but instead of reducing its methane emissions, the country is facing a rapid increase.
Targets for Baku conceal targets for Dubai
There are also doubts regarding Babayev’s plans for results in Baku. In a letter to the delegations, the COP President-designate listed 14 potential outcomes that could be achieved outside of the COP negotiations. However, he does not mention the implementation of the key resolutions of COP28: transitioning away from fossil fuels, tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. Instead, his plans include
a Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) made up of voluntary contributions from fossil fuel producing countries and an initiative for green investment,
voluntary commitments to “green energy zones and corridors,” the expansion of energy storage and hydrogen,
a peace initiative at COP, and
various statements on waste, agriculture, digitalization, tourism, water, and “healthy cities.”
Climate fund of oil countries purely voluntary
Azerbaijan’s push for a voluntary climate fund from oil and gas countries, the Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF), is a watered-down vision of an initial idea: Originally, a mandatory levy on fossil fuel producers was to raise several billion US dollars annually to finance green investments and climate aid for damage in poor countries. However, the oil states rejected this idea.
The CFAF is now to be filled with a one-off sum of one billion US dollars, with Azerbaijan intending to make a start with an as yet unspecified sum. The fund will be headquartered in Baku and will become active when the money is available and at least ten countries are involved. Half of the money is to be used for mitigation, adaptation and research in poor countries, while the other half is to go towards new NDCs in developing countries. Twenty percent of the fund’s profits are to be reserved to ensure swift aid in the event of climate damage, for example, after storms in island nations. It is still unclear how the fund will differ from the UN’s new loss and damage fund, which is currently set up in the Philippines with around 800 million US dollars.
Andreas Sieber from the climate organization 350.org criticizes that the COP29 presidency “raises serious concerns about its commitment to the energy transition.” The 14 initiatives and the appointment of a subsidiary of the state-owned Azerbaijani oil company SOCAR as a sponsor of the COP show “once again Azerbaijan’s ignorance and lack of leadership.” The message is that “the door is wide open for oil and gas deals. This urgently needs to change.”
Azerbaijan
Climate diplomacy
COP28
COP29
Energiewende
Translation missing.
Election check Austria: Climate policy cuts emissions and Green Party poll ratings
Pride or regret? Climate Minister Leonore Gewessler not only had to work hard for Austria’s national climate plan.
On September 29, Austria will elect a new National Council. The climate performance of the last legislature is characterized by the first government participation of the Green Party as a smaller partner of the conservative ÖVP. Central to this were a carbon tax with reimbursement to the population, the national climate plan (NECP) and the controversial approval of the EU Nature Restoration Law by Climate and Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler. Other important laws are still missing or have been watered down. In energy policy, some trends even head in the wrong direction, although carbon emissions have fallen significantly.
Climate policy was hardly an issue during the election campaign itself. Then came the flood disaster – and with it, climate policy and renaturation became part of the debate after all. According to a recent study, climate change made the floods twice as likely as in a scenario without global warming – and increased their intensity by seven percent. Nevertheless, the Green Party only polls around nine percent. The winner of the flood is probably the ÖVP, thanks to its crisis management.
Green Climate Action Minister Gewessler was also responsible for the energy, transport and infrastructure portfolios. Before their surprising government participation, the Green Party was not even represented in parliament and its organization was weakened. It had to lay off over a hundred employees and lost its budget and office space. Their informal influence, for example, via the social partnership, is also significantly less than that of other parties.
Emissions fall, but not fast enough
Austria’s emissions fell by 6.4 percent to 68 million tons in 2023, for the first time in all sectors – including transport. “We have made more progress on climate policy in recent years than ever before,” Lukas Hammer, Green Party climate and energy spokesperson, told Table.Briefings. “But this is not yet enough in terms of intensity and speed to meet our net zero target.”
The coalition agreement between the ÖVP and the Green Party set the goal of achieving net zero by 2040. This goal never became law. Every year, greenhouse gas emissions would have to fall by a similar percentage to the previous year. Within the EU, Austria is also obliged to reduce emissions by 48 percent by 2030 compared to 2005. According to the Austrian Environment Agency, “additional concrete and ambitious measures” in line with the national climate plan (NECP) are urgently needed to achieve this. Austria was the last EU member state to submit a revised draft in August. However, the final, updated climate plan is still not available.
Plan: More CCS and hydrogen, fewer climate-damaging subsidies
For example, the draft includes a stronger focus on CCS and hydrogen. Two million tons of CO2 per year are to be saved by gradually reducing fossil fuel subsidies. However, the ÖVP wants to retain the commuter allowance and diesel privilege. “I don’t see how this will save enough,” says Katharina Rogenhofer, Director of the Kontext Institut für Klimafragen, in an interview with Table.Briefings.
The national climate plan also abolishes the sector targets. The government agreement had included them in the Austrian Climate Change Act – a framework law which, according to Hammer, was intended to define “responsibilities, budgets and mechanisms in the event of a deviation from targets.” It has been outstanding for over 1,000 days. The ÖVP is blocking it. “It would be important to define a framework and ensure national planning security,” says Rogenhofer, referring to the next government.
Share of renewables falls, important laws failed
Although emissions are now falling, so is the share of renewables. According to the NECP plan, renewable energy accounted for 36.5 percent in 2020 but only 33.8 percent in 2022. This can be attributed to new calculation methods, but also to rising energy demand while the expansion of renewables is stalling in some areas:
The heating transition is only making slow progress. The Renewable Heat Act failed and was only passed in a watered-down version. For example, it “no longer regulates the conversion of existing oil and gas heating systems,” criticizes Rogenhofer. In addition, 1.3 million households continue to be heated with fossil fuels. According to the industry association “Wärmepumpe Austria,” sales of heat pumps slumped by 30 percent in the first half of 2024.
Austria is on track for the Renewable Energy Expansion Act regarding photovoltaic expansion. Data from the regulatory authority E-Control shows constant expansion rates of 500 to 600 megawatts per quarter-partly thanks to subsidies and tax breaks. However, energy expert Christoph Dolna-Gruber from the Austrian Energy Agency writes on X that the Electricity Industry Act is required for integration into the electricity system.
The share of Russian gas remains high, the Renewable Gas Act for more green biogas has failed. The Greens, ÖVP and SPÖ blame each other for blocking the law, which would require a two-thirds majority.
Hydrogen subsidies are being ramped up. The Austrian government plans to create 1 gigawatt of electrolysis capacity by 2030, partly with the help of the Hydrogen Promotion Act. According to the BMK’s implementation report, 18 megawatts of electrolyzer capacity are installed – less than two percent of the 2030 target.
No speed limit, but climate ticket and higher consumption tax
Emissions in the transport sector have climbed by more than 50 percent since 1990. Since 2019 – partly due to Covid lockdowns – they have been falling again. Across the EU, Austria has the longest distance traveled by train per inhabitant. However, it also has the densest road network. However, Chancellor Karl Nehammer considers Austria to be a “car country.” His ÖVP opposes the planned EU combustion car ban and the 100 km/h speed limit on freeways; instead, it supports e-fuels for cars.
This made it difficult for the Green Party to push through their demands – even though Climate Action Minister Gewessler is also Transport Minister. “But there are many issues that fall to the federal states,” says Rogenhofer, explaining their limited influence in federalist Austria. The Green Party is in government in only two of the nine federal states, the ÖPV in seven.
Significant changes in the transport sector included
The introduction of the annual climate ticket for 1,095 euros per person is valid for all of Austria. Since 2021, the number of active tickets has tripled to 300,000.
A budget increase for cycling and pedestrian traffic. The ÖVP and the Green Party wanted to increase the share of bicycles from 7 to 13 percent by 2025. The budget was multiplied and rights for cyclists and pedestrians were extended. According to the mobility organization VCÖ, the current share of bicycle traffic is ten percent.
Cancellation/stop of several climate-damaging transport projects. For example, the construction of the Lobau tunnel and freeway as well as the S18 expressway have been suspended. It remains unclear what will happen with the third runway for Vienna-Schwechat Airport.
A higher standard consumption tax (NoVA). Hammer considers the NoVA reform one of the “most powerful measures in climate action” – under the radar of the public and the ÖVP. Instead, the latter was pleased to have “negotiated away the abolition of the diesel privilege.” While emission-free vehicles do not pay NoVA, the tax increases with the rising CO2 values of combustion engines. “But you would have to drive several million kilometers with the car to recoup the higher NoVA when you buy the car,” explains Hammer. And it was precisely this purchase price increase that his party negotiated into the “eco-social tax reform.”
Like the climate ticket, the eco-social tax reform was a product of the Covid crisis. Both parties needed success: The legislative package introduced tax breaks for companies on the one hand and a carbon tax on the other, whose revenue is paid out via the climate bonus – similar to the climate money. One ton of CO2 currently costs 45 euros in the non-ETS sector. According to calculations by the German Environment Agency, however, each ton would have to cost more than 250 euros to include the ecological costs and achieve a steering effect.
Climate Council without impact and more climate financing
The Green Party also fought hard for the Climate Council. Representing Austria, 100 volunteers drew up 93 recommendations. Hammer, who negotiated the resolution, considers it a success: “What this mini-Austria has negotiated is astonishingly progressive. They could also have said, ‘We don’t want to change anything’.” However, towards the end of the Climate Council, the ÖVP began to delegitimize it. ÖVP climate spokesman Johannes Schmuckenschlager, for example, called it an “utterly useless institution.” Its recommendations have largely been ignored and hardly implemented. No commitments were made.
In addition, public climate financingwas increased by 60 percent in 2022, the contribution to the loss and damage fund was raised by 15 million to 25 million euros. Around 5.7 billion euroswill be provided for the industry’s transformation by 2030.
Election outlook: Still in single digits despite achievements?
Shortly before the National Council elections on September 29, the Green Party is back in single digits in the polls. Momentum like in 2019, when “Fridays for Future” marched and swept the Greens into parliament, is missing. Although more people took to the streets again after the flood disaster, the Greens’ poll ratings barely improved.
So far, the ÖVP seems to benefit most from the disaster thanks to its role as disaster manager. Two new polls show them neck and neck with the FPÖ. The SPÖ is a few percentage points behind at 20 percent and the Greens at nine percent. Rogenhofer believes climate policy will “definitely become an election issue.” However, it is unlikely that the ÖVP and the Greens will form a new coalition – most likely “mathematically as part of a three-party coalition with the SPÖ.”
Climate policy
E-Fuels
Klimapolitik
Renaturierung
The Greens
Translation missing.
Events
Sept. 26, 11 a.m. , Brussels/Online PresentationFuture of the EU ETS: ETS Coverage The European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition is presenting its EU ETS Coverage Report. The report examines the future of the EU ETS system. Info
Sept. 29, Austria Elections National Council election The Austrians elect a new National Council. The National Council is the second chamber of the Austrian parliament.
Sept. 30 – Oct. 2, Geneva ConferenceDrought Resilience +10 Following the first high-level meeting on national drought policies in 2013, the Drought Resilience +10 conference aims to strengthen and accelerate drought action on the ground. It brings together countries and experts to review progress and lessons learned in drought management and explore and define a common path towards a more drought-resilient world. Info
Sept. 30, 1 p.m., Berlin ConferenceAn Infrastructural Path to Green Industry and Jobs Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), the Royal Danish Embassy in Berlin and the think tank EUROPA co-host a high-level conference on the future of cross-border energy infrastructure in Europe.Info
Oct. 1, 2 p.m. Brussels/Online ConferenceBellona Climate Action Conference 2024 The NGO Bellona is hosting this event to celebrate its 30th anniversary. This event will discuss strategies and solutions to accelerate industrial decarbonization, focusing on the necessary steps at the policymaking level to achieve the EU’s climate objectives by 2030.Info
Oct 1-3, Rio de Janeiro G20 meetingClimate and Environmental Sustainability WG The Working Group in Climate and Environmental Sustainability will meet as part of the G20 cycle. The working meeting on Energy Transition will take place on October 4. Info
News
Climate in Numbers: Melting ice threatens whale routes
The effects of global warming are having a particularly severe impact on the planet’s largest mammals: Every spring and fall, thousands of bowhead, beluga and narwhal whales migrate north and south like other whale species and increasingly have problems with the dwindling ice cover. This is now shown in a new report by the environmental foundation WWF, which maps whale migration routes around the North Pole for the first time.
The report warns that the “blue corridors” where the whales stay and move are largely identical to shipping routes. However, this disturbs the marine mammals’ habitat due to underwater noise and the risk of collisions. With dwindling ice sheets, shipping routes in the former “eternal ice” have increased by 37 percent between 2013 and 2023, and the distances traveled have doubled. The WWF calls on shipping companies to consider the animals when planning their routes, travel more slowly and reduce underwater noise.
The three whale species that only inhabit Arctic waters are under additional threat from the melting ice because they are losing feeding grounds and sanctuaries. As the Arctic is warming around four times faster than the global average, the sea ice in the far north is melting rapidly: The extent of the Arctic ice has decreased significantly in recent years. In 2024, the minimum was only 4.3 million square kilometers. Since records began, the last 18 years have also seen the smallest extent of ice around the North Pole. bpo
Eisschmelze
Study: How many billions China pays for climate finance
“If you’re able, like China, to go to the moon on a mission, then you’re also able to pay more in the domain of climate action,” EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra told Bloomberg TV. He said Beijing is now rich enough to contribute to global efforts to provide funding for developing countries to help them cope with the effects of global warming. China has so far claimed that global climate finance is the responsibility of the wealthiest countries, which have produced the most carbon emissions since the Industrial Revolution.
Meanwhile, a new study shows that the People’s Republic is already spending a lot of money on international climate finance: The country has already paid around 45 billion US dollars between 2013 and 2022, an average of around 4.5 billion US dollars a year. This is the result of a recent study by the US think tank World Resource Institute (WRI).
The study notes that the data situation is not simple. Due to its official status as an emerging economy under the Paris Agreement, China is not obliged to provide international financial aid or to be transparent about it, although it can pay voluntarily. The sum of 45 billion US dollars consists of:
bilateral financial aid,
multilateral financial aid,
export loans and
mobilized private financing.
According to WRI, the sum of 45 billion accounts for around six percent of total global climate finance. By comparison, Germany is paying around six billion euros, while the US contributed around 5.8 billion dollars in 2021 and is on track to contribute 11.4 billion dollars by 2024.
The report will generate interest in the run-up to COP29, where a new global target for climate finance (NQCG) will be adopted. So far, countries have very different ideas about how much money should be mobilized beyond the 100 billion US dollars pledged annually – and who should pay for it. Western developed countries, in particular, are pushing for China and other relatively rich emerging economies to also contribute. bpo/ari
China
Climate financing
COP29
COP29
Cooling: These are the advantages of sustainable solutions
2.4 billion people worldwide are highly exposed to extreme heat – and the number is increasing due to global warming. As a result, the demand for cooling solutions is growing. In developing countries, sustainable cooling solutions could reduce cooling-related emissions by almost 50 percent, reducing the cost of electricity, equipment and energy sector investment by eight trillion US dollars by 2050. This is the conclusion of the report “Cooler Finance: How to Fund the Developing World’s Growing Cooling Needs” by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) and the International Finance Cooperation (IFC) published on Wednesday at the UN General Assembly in New York.
At COP28, over 60 countries declared their intention to reduce cooling emissions by 68 percent by 2050 under the “Global Cooling Pledge.” One cause of greenhouse gases in the cooling sector is electricity consumption. Added to this is the climate impact of escaping coolants, which is particularly high compared to CO2, for example, hydrofluorocarbons. According to the UNEP’s Global Cooling Watch 2023 report, 20 percent of the global electricity supply is currently used for cooling, and the demand for cooling could triple by 2050.
Without measures, cooling emissions could surge
The report stresses the need for “cost-effective, energy-efficient and environment-friendly cooling solutions.” To achieve this, it recommends focusing on passive cooling solutions such as insulation, enforcing minimum energy efficiency standards, and accelerating the phase-out of climate-damaging refrigerants. In addition, systematic approaches for cold chains are needed. Current projections indicate that cooling-related emissions would otherwise rise sharply due to population, economic growth and urbanization.
The report estimates that considerable financial resources of between 400 and 800 billion US dollars – including from the private sector – are required for a “transition towards sustainable cooling.” However, the report also sees economic opportunities and investment possibilities: The growing need and demand for cooling solutions means that the market for sustainable cooling solutions is also growing; it could double from 300 billion US dollars per year to 600 billion by 2050. kul
Climate adaptation
COP28
Emissions
United Nations
Flood prevention: Germany plans law amendment
The German Federal Ministry for the Environment plans to respond to the increasing flood risk with a legislative amendment. “The multiple floods this year show us that we are dealing with a new reality,” explained Minister Steffi Lemke (Green Party) on Wednesday. “We must protect people and their belongings, but also our infrastructure, from ever greater floods.” To this end, amendments to the Water Resources Act are planned; A draft bill, which the BMUV has already coordinated with the federal states, is now going through the departmental coordination process. The plan is to have the draft passed by the cabinet before the end of the year.
According to the ministry, the draft stipulates that municipalities must develop concepts for the prevention and handling of heavy rainfall. In addition, bridges are to be kept at a greater distance from the water surface and approval procedures for flood prevention measures are to be accelerated. In the future, flood protection will be mandatory in land use and development planning. The federal states will also have the option of designating areas where no new construction is permitted due to the risk of flooding. The amendment provides no new public funding for the federal states and municipalities responsible for flood prevention.
Most precipitation in twelve months since records began
The Extreme Weather Congress in Hamburg also examines the increase in extreme weather events. At the start of the event, the organizers presented a joint fact paper with the German Weather Service (DWD). It states that every decade in Germany since 1960 has been warmer than the previous. In 2023, the temperature was 2.8 degrees higher than from 1881 to 1910. “We are experiencing unchecked global warming with increasingly severe extreme weather,” explained DWD Executive Director Tobias Fuchs.
There has also been a recent record regarding rain and snow: “The period from July 2023 to June 2024 was the wettest twelve-month episode in Germany since the evaluation began in 1881,” the authors write. Unlike heat, however, it is difficult to prove a clear trend in precipitation. “The relationship between climate change and heavy precipitation is complex and therefore the subject of intensive research,” they say. For some regions, the radar data does indicate a higher frequency of heavy precipitation events. However, the high variability from year to year and the short time frame do not allow any conclusions to be drawn about an increase in extreme events in connection with climate change. mkr
Hochwasser
Why the Green Deal could negatively impact global emissions
The planned greenhouse gas reduction in the EU could lead to a huge emissions spike in other parts of the world. This is the conclusion of an international team of scientists at the University of Groningen led by Klaus Hubacek. Their analysis has recently been published in the journal Nature Sustainability.
The study examined the planned measures of the Green New Deal in the area of agriculture and forestry, including the associated supply chains. It showed that the Green Deal in its current form would lead to a more than two-fold increase in emissions in countries outside the EU compared to the EU-wide reduction target.
Hubacek cited the planting of three billion trees as an example of a measure to increase biodiversity in Europe. As trees need a lot of land, this means that more food will have to be produced elsewhere, for example in Africa or South America. However, this would require additional cropland. “This increases carbon dioxide emissions and reduces biodiversity,” says Hubacek.
Green Deal must be accompanied by CO2 savings within the EU
The EU’s Deforestation Regulation prohibits the importation of products that forest areas have converted into arable land. However, “nothing prevents these countries from growing products for Europe on existing agricultural land and cutting down forests to produce for the local market,” says Hubacek.
In order to minimize the potential negative effects of the Green Deal, the scientists propose three accompanying measures:
A food transition towards the predominantly plant-based “Planetary Health Diet” which would “save a huge amount of carbon dioxide emissions.”
The gradual phase-out of food-based biofuels in the EU would reduce the need for agricultural land.
Supporting developing countries in increasing their agricultural efficiency could also reduce land consumption. ch
Entwaldung
IEA: Tripling renewables feasible
The goal set at COP28 of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 is feasible. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) urges countries to act quickly and install more grid connections and battery storage. In a report published on Tuesday, the IEA stated that favorable economic conditions, “abundant” production potential and policy measures make the target achievable. However, to fully realize it, countries must build 25 million kilometers of transmission lines and add 1,500 gigawatts of energy storage capacity by 2030, a 15-fold increase from current levels.
The report is the first one to outline the specific measures that need to be taken to achieve the COP28 target. “Further international cooperation is vital to deliver fit-for-purpose grids, sufficient energy storage and faster electrification, which are integral to move clean energy transitions quickly and securely,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. According to the report, tripling renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade would reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by ten billion tons. rtr
