The climate crisis hits the poorest people in the world the hardest. This reality is once again evident in today’s issue of the briefing: Our Feature on droughts and extreme weather in southern Africa highlights this fact – namely, that more than 16 million people are threatened by hunger. Concrete large-scale solutions are not currently in sight. However, with Tobias Bischof-Niemz from Enertrag, we also introduce one of the minds working on the energy transition in this region.
In Germany, on the other hand, the debate rages on about increasing imports of LNG from fracking with a poor climate balance. We take a look at the current contracts for liquefied natural gas – and the risks and damages these imports entail.
You’ll also find the latest developments on CCS with us: We explain why a carbon bank is being called for in Europe and where global oil companies are currently searching for new CO2 storage sites.
From Malawi and Mozambique to Zambia and Zimbabwe, down to Namibia and across to the grain belt of South Africa, a combination of the effects of climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon has been causing drought, hunger and misery for months. The region, already vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, received only 80 percent of expected rainfall during the summer months in the Southern Hemisphere from November to February, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). February saw the lowest rainfall in 40 years, with temperatures four to five degrees above normal. The result: massive crop failures and food shortages.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) speaks of “heightened food insecurity” and rising food prices in the region. More than 16 million people are threatened by hunger, estimates OCHA. Particularly affected are three to four million people each in Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Already at the end of last year, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned of food shortages for up to 50 million people in southern Africa and parts of Central Africa.
Observations by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) show that the 2023-24 El Niño ranks among the five strongest since records began. Triggered by periodic warming of the sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean, El Niño typically reduces late-summer rainfall in southern Africa.
Climate change is also increasingly playing a role. In combination with El Niño, it leads to record temperatures, resulting in more frequent and worsening extreme weather events. “Since June 2023, a new monthly temperature record has been set every month – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. El Niño has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are clearly the main cause,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. February was the warmest on record in southern Africa as well. While the weather phenomenon is currently weakening and temperatures have already cooled down, its effects will continue to be felt, leading to higher temperatures than usual until May.
After the coronavirus pandemic and a devastating cholera outbreak last year, drought is the third disaster to hit the 20-million-country Zambia. According to the Zambezi River Authority, the 280-kilometer-long Kariba Lake along the border with Zimbabwe, the largest reservoir in the world by water volume, currently has only a 14 percent water level, endangering the power supply in both countries. In Zambia alone, which has the second-largest copper reserves in the world, a power deficit of around 500 megawatts is expected this year. Currently, there is electricity for only eight hours a day.
The situation in Zimbabwe is similarly dire. Half of the maize crop is lost. Tobacco production will be ten percent lower than last year. Zimbabwe is Africa’s largest tobacco producer and earns crucial foreign exchange from cultivation. Exports, mostly to China, brought in 1.2 billion dollars last year. “There has been a decline in volumes per hectare,” said Patrick Devenish, chairman of the Tobacco Industry Marketing Board (TIMB). Three-quarters of the country’s tobacco is produced by small-scale farmers, who lack good irrigation systems, which need to be improved in the future to withstand the effects of climate change. An emergency program by the WFP has just been completed. It aims to provide food to 2.7 million people.
South Africa has so far been spared. Surpluses from last year can offset the poor maize harvest in the region’s breadbasket. However, there will be nothing left for export to neighboring countries, which will be costly. “When food security is poor, prices spiral out of control,” says Tobias Doyer, CEO of the industry association Grain SA.
On Saturday evening, dozens of people demonstrated against the controversial LNG terminal on the island of Rügen once again. A few days ago, the first tanker arrived there for test operation. Germany covers 95 percent of its natural gas needs from abroad, but Russia has not been supplying since the end of August 2022. Therefore, energy companies procure liquefied natural gas (LNG) mainly on the spot market in the short term. According to the Federal Network Agency, the LNG terminals in the Baltic Sea are necessary for security of supply, but environmental organizations and researchers disagree.
A large part of the LNG comes from the USA – where it is extracted from rock formations using the environmentally harmful and health-threatening method of fracking. The gas is then either imported via the LNG terminals under construction on the German North and Baltic Sea coasts; according to the 2023 annual report of the Federal Association of the Energy and Water Industry (BDEW), the share here was 84 percent. Or it is landed in the ports of Rotterdam (Netherlands) and Zeebrugge (Belgium) and transported to Germany via the gas network – which is why it is then officially no longer classified as LNG but as pipeline gas.
Belgium itself does not extract natural gas to a significant extent. Last autumn, the Netherlands closed its last gas field. Nevertheless, according to the Federal Network Agency, both countries accounted for 48 percent of total German gas imports in 2023. However, neither the Federal Network Agency nor the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (BMWK) can provide information on the actual origin of the natural gas deliveries, even though only the USA and Qatar are able to offer larger quantities of LNG on the spot markets at short notice.
“On the world market for LNG, there are different countries offering LNG,” a BMWK spokesperson told Table.Briefings. “The contracts are made here by the companies. They are responsible and in charge of the deliveries. We do not have insight into the contracts.”
With the increase in long-term LNG supply contracts, this will change. Because unlike with the difficult-to-trace purchases on the spot market, companies report publicly on the conclusion of such import contracts. And they have already reached agreements with a number of US companies:
The German government is investing around ten billion euros in the necessary infrastructure. Three floating terminals, so-called Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRU), are already in regular operation in Wilhelmshaven, Lubmin and Brunsbüttel. Stade and Mukran on Rügen will follow shortly. From 2026, some of the FSRUs will then be replaced by stationary, more powerful terminals.
The increasing LNG imports from the USA are controversial primarily for two reasons. Firstly, because around 80 percent of natural gas production there is carried out through fracking. This involves mixing water with chemicals and injecting it into gas-bearing rock formations at high pressure to fracture them and release the gas.
The environmental impacts of fracking are significant: A 2022 study by Yale University, for example, shows that children living near fracking sites have a two- to threefold increased risk of developing a severe form of childhood leukemia. Newborns also more frequently have low birth weight and poorer health conditions, as a study published in “Science Advances” shows.
Poor communities and minorities are particularly affected by the direct environmental and health hazards of fossil fuel extraction. In 2021, the environmental organization Greenpeace USA presented a report titled “Fossil Fuel Racism“. The report shows, according to the authors, “that the fossil fuel industry contributes to health damages that kill hundreds of thousands of people in the USA every year and disproportionately endanger black, brown, indigenous, and poor communities.”
Fracking has been legally banned in Germany since 2017. For example, Ludwig Möhring, managing director of the Federal Association of Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Geoenergy (BVEG), wants to overturn this ban because he is convinced of environmentally friendly extraction in Germany. This could reduce “dependence on international natural gas procurement markets,” says Möhring. According to the Federal Ministry for the Environment, however, the environmental risks of fracking in Germany range from contamination of groundwater and drinking water to noise and air emissions, as well as high land and water consumption.
Another aspect is the high methane emissions from fracked LNG from the USA. Methane is considered up to 80 times more harmful to the climate than CO2. Emissions along the supply chain of LNG could be up to 274 percent higher than with coal, taking into account leaks and energy consumption during extraction, processing, and transport. This is shown by an unpublished study by Robert Howarth, a climate scientist at Cornell University. The study is currently in the review process but is also subject to criticism. For example, methane leakage at drilling sites is assumed to be too high and natural gas and coal are not easily comparable due to different efficiencies.
The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) advises against excessive expansion of LNG infrastructure in Germany in a recent study. “Rather, long-term effective investments should only flow into projects that are fully compatible with the goal of 100 percent renewable energies,” it says. “Further expansion plans for LNG terminals on the German North and Baltic Sea coasts therefore appear counterproductive from both an energy and climate policy perspective.”
Given the tendentially decreasing natural gas demand in Germany, according to the DIW, it would instead be possible to ensure supply in the medium term mainly through Norwegian pipeline gas. This is “cheaper and less environmentally harmful,” say the researchers. with Lukas Bayer
Tobias Bischof-Niemz organizes energy transition projects for Enertrag from planning to commissioning. On April 1, he will join the executive board of the company’s European joint-stock company, where he has been active since 2017. He will then be responsible for international projects and new technologies.
Enertrag has big plans: The company, with a revenue of 209 million euros in the fiscal year 2022/23, plans to invest in renewable energy on almost every continent. In Spain, Vietnam, South Africa and Uruguay, the company from Brandenburg’s Uckermark region already has offices. A hydrogen project in Namibia alone has an investment volume of at least ten billion US dollars. Explorations are underway in other markets.
With regard to projects like the one in Namibia, Bischof-Niemz sees a great responsibility for himself and his company: “Namibia could industrialize within a generation,” he says. He calculates that with investments like those from Enertrag, Namibia’s gross domestic product, which is currently about 12.5 billion US dollars per year, could be multiplied. In fact, based on the very favorable natural conditions for solar and wind power and plenty of space in the sparsely populated country, the government plans many more hydrogen and industrialization projects. Enertrag provides a blueprint for this.
Tobias Bischof-Niemz explains the company’s systemic approach: Solar panels and wind turbines will generate electricity for electrolyzers that produce hydrogen. A seawater desalination plant will provide the necessary water and pipelines will connect the facilities. At the endpoint, the hydrogen will be converted into ammonia, which can then be exported for industrial use.
Systems have fascinated the 47-year-old Bischof-Niemz for a long time. “During my studies and my doctorate, I always looked very functionally at systems,” he explains. “There isn’t a term for it in German, but in English, I would be a Systems Engineer.” In his doctoral research at TU Darmstadt, he investigated whether the braking distance of motor vehicles could be shortened using “system-dynamically derived control technology” from shock absorbers – although successful, during the research he wondered if he wanted to spend the rest of his professional life “optimizing cars by two percent”.
He decided instead to dedicate himself to combating climate change through renewable energy. Initially, he pursued a master’s degree at Columbia University in New York, where he focused on energy market regulation, before joining Boston Consulting Group to advise companies. One of his clients was the South African state-owned energy company Eskom, which then became his next employer. At Eskom in Johannesburg, Bischof-Niemz was tasked with promoting the expansion of wind and solar power – a project ridiculed by many in a country with vast coal reserves, according to the engineer.
It was not an easy time for him because South Africa’s energy policy was contradictory: On one side were the coal mining companies. On the other hand, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) decided for geostrategic reasons at that time (mid-2010s) to expand nuclear power. In between were wind and solar power, without a powerful lobby but with the argument of unbeatably cheap electricity. In the end, no side prevailed: The nuclear plans have since been massively scaled back, while the coal plants crumbled, and the expansion of renewables progressed too slowly. An emotionally draining experience. “In the end, it was a significant reason why we left the country,” says Bischof-Niemz.
He looks much more optimistic about the Namibia project, which was recently identified by the German Ministry for Economic Affairs as a potential “strategic project” for economic development. Because in Namibia, Tobias Bischof-Niemz says, there are no traditional interests in the energy sector. Rather, the country must import coal power from South Africa. He also wants to reverse this disadvantage: With surplus electricity from the Enertrag project, Namibia could largely supply itself, perhaps even become an exporter of electricity to the neighboring country.
Naturally, the systems engineer suggests taking a systemic approach to the potential energy wealth. After all, entire industries could emerge around ammonia and hydrogen, such as for green steel. “In the region, not only in Namibia but also in South Africa, there is a lot of iron ore, which is already used for steel production, even for export,” he says. “And of course, Namibia can also position itself as a major steel producer.” Alex Veit
The climate crisis hits the poorest people in the world the hardest. This reality is once again evident in today’s issue of the briefing: Our Feature on droughts and extreme weather in southern Africa highlights this fact – namely, that more than 16 million people are threatened by hunger. Concrete large-scale solutions are not currently in sight. However, with Tobias Bischof-Niemz from Enertrag, we also introduce one of the minds working on the energy transition in this region.
In Germany, on the other hand, the debate rages on about increasing imports of LNG from fracking with a poor climate balance. We take a look at the current contracts for liquefied natural gas – and the risks and damages these imports entail.
You’ll also find the latest developments on CCS with us: We explain why a carbon bank is being called for in Europe and where global oil companies are currently searching for new CO2 storage sites.
From Malawi and Mozambique to Zambia and Zimbabwe, down to Namibia and across to the grain belt of South Africa, a combination of the effects of climate change and the El Niño weather phenomenon has been causing drought, hunger and misery for months. The region, already vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, received only 80 percent of expected rainfall during the summer months in the Southern Hemisphere from November to February, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). February saw the lowest rainfall in 40 years, with temperatures four to five degrees above normal. The result: massive crop failures and food shortages.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) speaks of “heightened food insecurity” and rising food prices in the region. More than 16 million people are threatened by hunger, estimates OCHA. Particularly affected are three to four million people each in Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Already at the end of last year, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned of food shortages for up to 50 million people in southern Africa and parts of Central Africa.
Observations by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) show that the 2023-24 El Niño ranks among the five strongest since records began. Triggered by periodic warming of the sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean, El Niño typically reduces late-summer rainfall in southern Africa.
Climate change is also increasingly playing a role. In combination with El Niño, it leads to record temperatures, resulting in more frequent and worsening extreme weather events. “Since June 2023, a new monthly temperature record has been set every month – and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. El Niño has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are clearly the main cause,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. February was the warmest on record in southern Africa as well. While the weather phenomenon is currently weakening and temperatures have already cooled down, its effects will continue to be felt, leading to higher temperatures than usual until May.
After the coronavirus pandemic and a devastating cholera outbreak last year, drought is the third disaster to hit the 20-million-country Zambia. According to the Zambezi River Authority, the 280-kilometer-long Kariba Lake along the border with Zimbabwe, the largest reservoir in the world by water volume, currently has only a 14 percent water level, endangering the power supply in both countries. In Zambia alone, which has the second-largest copper reserves in the world, a power deficit of around 500 megawatts is expected this year. Currently, there is electricity for only eight hours a day.
The situation in Zimbabwe is similarly dire. Half of the maize crop is lost. Tobacco production will be ten percent lower than last year. Zimbabwe is Africa’s largest tobacco producer and earns crucial foreign exchange from cultivation. Exports, mostly to China, brought in 1.2 billion dollars last year. “There has been a decline in volumes per hectare,” said Patrick Devenish, chairman of the Tobacco Industry Marketing Board (TIMB). Three-quarters of the country’s tobacco is produced by small-scale farmers, who lack good irrigation systems, which need to be improved in the future to withstand the effects of climate change. An emergency program by the WFP has just been completed. It aims to provide food to 2.7 million people.
South Africa has so far been spared. Surpluses from last year can offset the poor maize harvest in the region’s breadbasket. However, there will be nothing left for export to neighboring countries, which will be costly. “When food security is poor, prices spiral out of control,” says Tobias Doyer, CEO of the industry association Grain SA.
On Saturday evening, dozens of people demonstrated against the controversial LNG terminal on the island of Rügen once again. A few days ago, the first tanker arrived there for test operation. Germany covers 95 percent of its natural gas needs from abroad, but Russia has not been supplying since the end of August 2022. Therefore, energy companies procure liquefied natural gas (LNG) mainly on the spot market in the short term. According to the Federal Network Agency, the LNG terminals in the Baltic Sea are necessary for security of supply, but environmental organizations and researchers disagree.
A large part of the LNG comes from the USA – where it is extracted from rock formations using the environmentally harmful and health-threatening method of fracking. The gas is then either imported via the LNG terminals under construction on the German North and Baltic Sea coasts; according to the 2023 annual report of the Federal Association of the Energy and Water Industry (BDEW), the share here was 84 percent. Or it is landed in the ports of Rotterdam (Netherlands) and Zeebrugge (Belgium) and transported to Germany via the gas network – which is why it is then officially no longer classified as LNG but as pipeline gas.
Belgium itself does not extract natural gas to a significant extent. Last autumn, the Netherlands closed its last gas field. Nevertheless, according to the Federal Network Agency, both countries accounted for 48 percent of total German gas imports in 2023. However, neither the Federal Network Agency nor the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs (BMWK) can provide information on the actual origin of the natural gas deliveries, even though only the USA and Qatar are able to offer larger quantities of LNG on the spot markets at short notice.
“On the world market for LNG, there are different countries offering LNG,” a BMWK spokesperson told Table.Briefings. “The contracts are made here by the companies. They are responsible and in charge of the deliveries. We do not have insight into the contracts.”
With the increase in long-term LNG supply contracts, this will change. Because unlike with the difficult-to-trace purchases on the spot market, companies report publicly on the conclusion of such import contracts. And they have already reached agreements with a number of US companies:
The German government is investing around ten billion euros in the necessary infrastructure. Three floating terminals, so-called Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRU), are already in regular operation in Wilhelmshaven, Lubmin and Brunsbüttel. Stade and Mukran on Rügen will follow shortly. From 2026, some of the FSRUs will then be replaced by stationary, more powerful terminals.
The increasing LNG imports from the USA are controversial primarily for two reasons. Firstly, because around 80 percent of natural gas production there is carried out through fracking. This involves mixing water with chemicals and injecting it into gas-bearing rock formations at high pressure to fracture them and release the gas.
The environmental impacts of fracking are significant: A 2022 study by Yale University, for example, shows that children living near fracking sites have a two- to threefold increased risk of developing a severe form of childhood leukemia. Newborns also more frequently have low birth weight and poorer health conditions, as a study published in “Science Advances” shows.
Poor communities and minorities are particularly affected by the direct environmental and health hazards of fossil fuel extraction. In 2021, the environmental organization Greenpeace USA presented a report titled “Fossil Fuel Racism“. The report shows, according to the authors, “that the fossil fuel industry contributes to health damages that kill hundreds of thousands of people in the USA every year and disproportionately endanger black, brown, indigenous, and poor communities.”
Fracking has been legally banned in Germany since 2017. For example, Ludwig Möhring, managing director of the Federal Association of Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Geoenergy (BVEG), wants to overturn this ban because he is convinced of environmentally friendly extraction in Germany. This could reduce “dependence on international natural gas procurement markets,” says Möhring. According to the Federal Ministry for the Environment, however, the environmental risks of fracking in Germany range from contamination of groundwater and drinking water to noise and air emissions, as well as high land and water consumption.
Another aspect is the high methane emissions from fracked LNG from the USA. Methane is considered up to 80 times more harmful to the climate than CO2. Emissions along the supply chain of LNG could be up to 274 percent higher than with coal, taking into account leaks and energy consumption during extraction, processing, and transport. This is shown by an unpublished study by Robert Howarth, a climate scientist at Cornell University. The study is currently in the review process but is also subject to criticism. For example, methane leakage at drilling sites is assumed to be too high and natural gas and coal are not easily comparable due to different efficiencies.
The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) advises against excessive expansion of LNG infrastructure in Germany in a recent study. “Rather, long-term effective investments should only flow into projects that are fully compatible with the goal of 100 percent renewable energies,” it says. “Further expansion plans for LNG terminals on the German North and Baltic Sea coasts therefore appear counterproductive from both an energy and climate policy perspective.”
Given the tendentially decreasing natural gas demand in Germany, according to the DIW, it would instead be possible to ensure supply in the medium term mainly through Norwegian pipeline gas. This is “cheaper and less environmentally harmful,” say the researchers. with Lukas Bayer
Tobias Bischof-Niemz organizes energy transition projects for Enertrag from planning to commissioning. On April 1, he will join the executive board of the company’s European joint-stock company, where he has been active since 2017. He will then be responsible for international projects and new technologies.
Enertrag has big plans: The company, with a revenue of 209 million euros in the fiscal year 2022/23, plans to invest in renewable energy on almost every continent. In Spain, Vietnam, South Africa and Uruguay, the company from Brandenburg’s Uckermark region already has offices. A hydrogen project in Namibia alone has an investment volume of at least ten billion US dollars. Explorations are underway in other markets.
With regard to projects like the one in Namibia, Bischof-Niemz sees a great responsibility for himself and his company: “Namibia could industrialize within a generation,” he says. He calculates that with investments like those from Enertrag, Namibia’s gross domestic product, which is currently about 12.5 billion US dollars per year, could be multiplied. In fact, based on the very favorable natural conditions for solar and wind power and plenty of space in the sparsely populated country, the government plans many more hydrogen and industrialization projects. Enertrag provides a blueprint for this.
Tobias Bischof-Niemz explains the company’s systemic approach: Solar panels and wind turbines will generate electricity for electrolyzers that produce hydrogen. A seawater desalination plant will provide the necessary water and pipelines will connect the facilities. At the endpoint, the hydrogen will be converted into ammonia, which can then be exported for industrial use.
Systems have fascinated the 47-year-old Bischof-Niemz for a long time. “During my studies and my doctorate, I always looked very functionally at systems,” he explains. “There isn’t a term for it in German, but in English, I would be a Systems Engineer.” In his doctoral research at TU Darmstadt, he investigated whether the braking distance of motor vehicles could be shortened using “system-dynamically derived control technology” from shock absorbers – although successful, during the research he wondered if he wanted to spend the rest of his professional life “optimizing cars by two percent”.
He decided instead to dedicate himself to combating climate change through renewable energy. Initially, he pursued a master’s degree at Columbia University in New York, where he focused on energy market regulation, before joining Boston Consulting Group to advise companies. One of his clients was the South African state-owned energy company Eskom, which then became his next employer. At Eskom in Johannesburg, Bischof-Niemz was tasked with promoting the expansion of wind and solar power – a project ridiculed by many in a country with vast coal reserves, according to the engineer.
It was not an easy time for him because South Africa’s energy policy was contradictory: On one side were the coal mining companies. On the other hand, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) decided for geostrategic reasons at that time (mid-2010s) to expand nuclear power. In between were wind and solar power, without a powerful lobby but with the argument of unbeatably cheap electricity. In the end, no side prevailed: The nuclear plans have since been massively scaled back, while the coal plants crumbled, and the expansion of renewables progressed too slowly. An emotionally draining experience. “In the end, it was a significant reason why we left the country,” says Bischof-Niemz.
He looks much more optimistic about the Namibia project, which was recently identified by the German Ministry for Economic Affairs as a potential “strategic project” for economic development. Because in Namibia, Tobias Bischof-Niemz says, there are no traditional interests in the energy sector. Rather, the country must import coal power from South Africa. He also wants to reverse this disadvantage: With surplus electricity from the Enertrag project, Namibia could largely supply itself, perhaps even become an exporter of electricity to the neighboring country.
Naturally, the systems engineer suggests taking a systemic approach to the potential energy wealth. After all, entire industries could emerge around ammonia and hydrogen, such as for green steel. “In the region, not only in Namibia but also in South Africa, there is a lot of iron ore, which is already used for steel production, even for export,” he says. “And of course, Namibia can also position itself as a major steel producer.” Alex Veit
