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Sinolytics Radar

Sinolytics Radar

20th Party Congress: changes in Xi Jinping's wake

The 20th party congress in fall 2022 will see some major personnel shakeups in China’s central political system. Xi will likely receive a third term. A generational change is underway, as about half of the Central Committee members have hit the age ceiling for nomination. Before this political transition is done, don’t expect policy surprises. But do watch out for the themes highlighted in the post-congress presidential speech. ​

By Redaktion Table

Sinolytics Radar

Securing supply chains remains challenging in 2022

Supply chain management will continue to have hard times in 2022. Given the Winter Olympics and Party Congress, China’s government will not veer away from its Zero-Covid strategy, risking closure of production sites and delivery delays. In addition, geopolitical tensions increasingly put companies at the crossroads between complying with US/EU laws and avoiding the ire of the Chinese government. ​

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Sinolytics Radar

Cybersecurity: Focus on a more digital economy

Enforcement of cyber and data security regulations will further ramp up in 2022 and beyond as China prepares for launching its digital economy into a higher orbit. While China moves along its digital path, it also fortifies its regulatory framework, creating significant compliance and operational challenges that companies need to be keenly aware of.​​

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Sinolytics Radar

Business environment: easier market entry, but 'buy local' and stricter monitoring

China will selectively improve market access to keep attracting foreign investment. But “buy local” preferences will continue in sectors that China’s government sees as strategic to national security. Once in the market, companies will be bound even tighter to strictly follow China’s market rules as the government rolls out more data-driven market governance tools.​​

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Sinolytics Radar

Expansion plans for renewable energies

In order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China needs to adopt a rapid decarbonization strategy including a massive expansion of renewable energy (RE). According to projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), China’s RE share of total power generation can reach 80% by 2060, if sufficient measures are implemented. To turn this projection into reality, China’s government is pushing decarbonization efforts, ranging from expansion of installed RE capacity to promotion of corporate-level green energy purchasing.

By Redaktion Table

Sinolytics Radar

Decoupling is reflected in statistics

Given the current geopolitical situation and domestic sentiments in the US as well as China, technological decoupling between the two powers is progressing. While hard barriers for technology exchange like export and investment controls capture the media headlines, research cooperation between the US and China has also been heavily affected by the increasingly antagonistic relationship. One of the results is decreasing bilateral research funding and increasing scrutiny on scientific exchange.​

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Sinolytics Radar

China between state and market economy

Compared to other bond markets, China’s default rate is astonishingly low. This is largely caused by the government’s implicit promise to bail out SOEs that are in trouble, creating a typical “moral hazard” situation. Recent SOE defaults, however, show that China’s financial regulators are trying to move more strictly against this “moral hazard”. But their task is difficult: Other political goals, like employment and social stability, still often restrain financial regulators from allowing SOEs to fail.​

By Redaktion Table

Sinolytics Radar

Authorities push cyber laws

In recent years, China’s regulatory framework for cyber and data governance has developed rapidly. The Personal Information Protection (PIP) Law took effect on January 1, 2022. More regulations and standards will follow. The intensity of the enforcement is catching up with the rules, inspections are increasing. Companies need to act now to ensure compliance and mitigate risks, but also to leverage new opportunities for data usage and monetization.

By Redaktion Table

Sinolytics Radar

China’s anti-monopoly campaign: not only targeting tech giants​

For many China observers, antitrust actions largely seem to be a regulatory instrument for the Chinese government to crack down on overly powerful tech giants like Alibaba. However, China’s anti-monopoly regulation overall has become much more powerful and sophisticated, reaching well beyond internet companies. China’s government is forcefully moving against monopolistic structures in many consumer-oriented sectors.

By Redaktion Table

Sinolytics Radar

The compliance oracle

China’s enterprise credit risk score (企业信用风险分类) brings government inspections of companies into the age of “predictive supervision”: the score assesses the future likelihood of companies to be non-compliant. Depending on the score result, government authorities will determine the frequency of inspections for each company. Recently, the new risk score went from pilot phase into country-wide implementation. Companies throughout China can soon expect the new governance tool to determine the number of government visits at their plants and offices.

By Redaktion Table