Table.Briefing: China

Interview with ZEW President + Disinfecting against COVID-19

  • Achim Wambach advocates free trade
  • China in disinfection frenzy
  • EU criticizes Bachelet’s trip
  • VW defends investment in Xinjiang
  • Lockdown in Shanghai nears end, new quarantine in Beijing
  • Xi expresses faith in Hong Kong’s future Chief Executive
  • CO2 emissions fall for the third quarter in a row
  • Profile: Christoph Rehage travels China by foot
Dear reader,

First, the Covid pandemic, then the war in Ukraine – global supply chains are under a lot of pressure these days. So it comes as no surprise that more and more governments have begun to consider decoupling the global economy. The German government currently also notes that it is too dependent on China. For this reason, there are increasing calls for the re-nationalization of certain supply chains.

Economic expert Achim Wambach sees nothing to be gained from such a policy. Interviewed by Felix Lee, the Head of the ZEW Economic Research Institute explains why the exact opposite would be the solution. Wambach’s recommendation: more free trade. There are many regions in the world that still have a phase of high economic growth ahead of them and where German companies could position themselves very well. Another advantage over China is that not all of these countries are autocracies.

After all, the strict Covid policy of the leadership in Beijing is only the latest example of how autocratic China can be: Be it streets, apartments, parcels, parks or restaurants – everything that has a surface is being disinfected lately. Even people. So our team in Beijing set out to see how effective the pungent mixtures of ethanol, 1-propanol or 2-propanol truly are in the fight against Covid: Are China’s masked disinfection troops a miracle cure for Covid or mere hygiene theatrics?

Your
Michael Radunski
Image of Michael  Radunski

Feature

‘Detach from dependencies, but not from China itself’

ZEW President Achim Wambach, Copyright Anna Logue Photography

Mr. Wambach, Shanghai’s lockdown to fight the pandemic was supposed to last four days. Now it’s been more than two months – while life in the rest of the world is returning to normal. How big is the damage to the German economy?

China’s lockdowns will have a massive impact on global supply chains. While we won’t see a sudden shock in the next few weeks, we will be faced with increasingly long delays in shipping times. In addition, prices are likely to rise further as a result. Financial market experts, whom we regularly survey, do expect the situation in China to improve slightly over the next six months. But at a low rate. After all, the problems will not be over with the end of the Covid measures. It will take months before trade is back to normal.

Russia’s campaign against Ukraine shows us once again how risky it is to get too involved with an authoritarian country. Shouldn’t Russia be a lesson to us when it comes to China as well?

There are several recent studies that look at what we would face if we stopped trade with China. We’re talking about a decrease of about one to four percent of gross domestic product. The Chinese and European economies are highly intertwined.

That doesn’t sound so bad.

But it would be. Around ten percent of German exports go to China. Many sales and procurement channels would have to be changed in the event of sharp conflicts. The loss for affected companies would be significantly higher. Then there are the investments made by German companies in the country itself. If their local production were to be impaired, this would at least affect their company value. Stopping business in China is feasible, but it would hurt the German economy a lot. At the moment, however, I do not see such a development. Large German companies continue to invest in China. It is rather small companies that are reconsidering their China business due to the many security regulations.

Understandable, isn’t it?

Certainly, after recent experience, we should now take a closer look at the areas in which we have become too dependent on certain countries and where we can build new supply chains. These are the lessons we have learned from the Russian conflict. And this is a question that every major company involved in China is now asking itself. For most of them, however, it is a question of detaching themselves from the dependencies, not from China per se.

Hasn’t China long since put the screws on some companies? VW and Daimler generate more than half of their revenue in the People’s Republic.

It would be wrong if VW were to say now: We’re getting out completely. Trade may not have led to the change that was once hoped for. But the intensive exchange has already brought a certain stability to relations. I think Volkswagen and other companies will now determine exactly how vulnerable they are should the West impose broader sanctions on China at some point.

How exactly?

I recommend that companies work with stress scenarios. Every company should run through all possible risks. For example, hardly anyone considered Russia to be a risk. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have this gas dependency. There is also too much dependence on a few countries for other raw materials, such as rare minerals or computer chips.

So to what conclusions can be drawn from such findings?

German companies should again re-focus on other geographical regions: India and South America, for example, and also North America in VW’s case. This does not mean, however, that all machines in China should come to a standstill for VW. I urge that we continue trading, but that we consistently reduce dependencies. However, it is not enough that only companies practice risk management. As we have seen recently, there are systemic risks that companies alone cannot address. And this is where politics comes in, in the search for new sources of raw materials, for example, but also in the search for new sales markets, for example through additional trade agreements.

Instead of re-nationalization, you plead for more free trade?

At least for a more diversified trade. To avoid dependencies, you should not trade with just one partner, but with many. There are still many regions in the world that have a phase of high economic growth ahead of them and where German companies with a lot of experience in international trade would be very well positioned. And not all of them are autocracies.

Let us take the supply chain act: Even though China has made great progress in recent years in complying with environmental and social standards, it will likely be difficult for German companies to ensure compliance along all supply chains. China lacks independent inspection bodies.

German companies already had to disclose what standards they comply with. In this respect, the issue is not new for them. I think the German Supply Chain Act is a good compromise. It is relatively cautious in terms of requirements and the depth to which the supply chain can be monitored. But the European equivalent is coming soon, which will be much stricter. This poses greater problems for some German companies.

The United States is urging its allies to make a choice: China or the USA. Germany appears indecisive on the issue.

When it came down to it, Germany always made a decision. And it has always decided in favor of the United States. That was the case with the sanctions against Iran, and it is currently the case with Russia. The US market is too important for that, and as our most important NATO partner, the US is also the relevant protecting power. For me, this raises the question of what such a request by the US means in the end? American companies are also active in China. And they have no plans to leave the country either. I think the US is primarily concerned with security-related technologies. And the Germans have long since sided with the US on that.

Is there no risk of retaliation?

The spiral of sanctions and counter-sanctions is well known. If we exclude telecommunications companies in Europe, we can expect China to react similarly.

Will it stay that way?

I believe so. If China’s leadership overreacts and also bans the supply of machines, cars and pharmaceuticals from Europe, this would severely restrict the supply of its own people. I assume that counter-sanctions will be dosed.

Achim Wambach has been President of ZEW, the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research, since 2016. He holds a Ph.D. in physics and is a Professor of Economics at the University of Mannheim.

  • Russia
  • Supply chains
  • Trade
  • USA

Smoke and mirrors: How pointless Covid disinfections disappear in the air

Disinfection of the streets of Zhengzhou

Whether it’s roads, homes, packages and letters from abroad, or even just people. China’s authorities have concluded that pretty much anything with a surface can transmit the Coronavirus. That is why everything is being sprayed like there is no tomorrow. Social networks are full of videos and photos showing entire battalions of pandemic workers in white protective gear marching through the streets, fogging roadways, sidewalks and every lamppost that comes their way with their spray guns.

But while China’s disinfection troops caused amusement at first, the mood has now taken a massive turn. Authorities have begun to impose forced sanitization not only in public places, but also in private homes. In Shanghai and other parts of the country, reports of angry apartment owners being sent to quarantine centers are mounting. In their absence, cleaners invaded their homes, leaving furniture and floors soaked in disinfectant.

Images of people who have been lined up and then fired upon with disinfectant have also caused an uproar. Many firefighters in Shanghai no longer perform their actual duties, but have long since become an integral part of the disinfection squads that move from apartment to apartment. And disinfection robots are deployed at train stations and airports.

In contrast, a disinfection robot is used in the Huzhou train station

Experts note that all these efforts are one thing above all else: A huge waste of resources. Several studies show that the chance of transmission of the virus via contaminated surfaces is extremely low. On the other hand, disinfection could present a risk to health and the environment.

Studies prove low infection risk via surfaces

The US Department of Health and Human Services estimates that contact with a surface contaminated with Covid-19 results in infection in only 1 in 10,000 cases. A two-year study published in April in the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology estimates the odds as low as 1 in 100,000.

Given such numbers, most observers agree that the authorities have other motivations at heart. The images are intended to “boost public confidence in government action,” Hong Kong professor Nicholas Thomas told US television network CNN. Many China observers call this spray campaign nothing more than “hygiene theatrics” that have nothing to do with meaningful preventive measures. The intention is to show the people that the government does not sit idly by.

But outside on the field people take care of disinfection

Still, some researchers consider the strict measures to be sensible. Disinfecting surfaces is irrelevant to most countries’ strategies, says Leo Poon, a researcher at Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health. But China, which is pursuing an elimination strategy, has little choice.

The risk of transmission is extremely low. However, any single infection would potentially trigger a new wave. China’s chief epidemiologist, Wu Zunyou, recently said that while the likelihood of infection from contaminated surfaces is low, it remains possible with repeated exposure.

The World Health Organization, on the other hand, takes a clear position. In outdoor areas, large-scale fumigation is “not recommended,” according to the WHO’s official guidelines. Streets and sidewalks are not infection routes for the virus. Spraying disinfectants could be “harmful to health” and cause eye, respiratory or skin irritation.

But disinfection measures make sense in the right places: at home, in the office, in schools or gyms. Here, it is recommended to regularly disinfect so-called high-touch surfaces. The WHO cites door and window handles, kitchen countertops, bathroom surfaces, toilets and faucets as examples. Joern Petring/Gregor Koppenburg

  • Coronavirus
  • Health
  • WHO

News

EU regrets Bachelet trip

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is visibly pleased with Michelle Bachelet’s visit to China.

The European Union has expressed “regret” over the trip of UN human rights envoy Michelle Bachelet. Bachelet did not have full access to persecuted groups, individuals and detention centers during her visit to Xinjiang last week, European External Action Service (EEAS) spokeswoman Nabila Massrali lamented in Brussels on Monday.

Massrali pointed to extensive “credible reports about systematic human rights violations in Xinjiang” and said “independent monitoring, fact-finding and investigations” are the only ways to properly evaluate the situation in China’s Western province.

“While taking note of the non-investigative nature of the visit, we regret that the high commissioner’s access to independent civil society organizations, human rights defenders and detention centers was limited, and that this did not allow her to assess the full scale of political re-education camps in Xinjiang,” Massrali said.

Meanwhile, Beijing has praised Bachelet’s six-day visit as a great success. It was the UN human rights chief’s first visit to China since 2005 (China.Table reported). “It needs to be pointed out that certain Western countries, out of ulterior motives, went to great lengths to disrupt and undercut the High Commissioner’s visit,” Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu said Saturday. “Their plot didn’t succeed.” Bachelet also defended her trip to China (China.Table reported).

As the South China Morning Post newspaper reported, the EU is expected to receive a full report on the trip next week. rad

  • Civil Society
  • EU
  • Human Rights
  • United Nations
  • Xinjiang

VW boss: ‘Volkswagen improves the situation of Uyghurs’

Despite recent revelations of human rights violations against the Uyghur Muslim minority in China, Volkswagen intends to continue operating its plant in Xinjiang province. “I believe that the presence of SAIC Volkswagen leads to the situation improving for people,” Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told the German newspaper Handelsblatt (Monday edition), referring to the Saic Volkswagen joint venture there. “We travel there, and like everywhere in the world we ensure our labor standards are implemented, and that cultural and religious differences are respected.” If there were any starting points for violations, action would be taken against them, Diess continued.

VW has repeatedly faced criticism because the car manufacturer has been operating a factory in the city of Urumqi together with the Chinese state-owned group Saic since 2013. Recently, the Dax group is said to have been denied investment guarantees for the region by the German government (China.Table reported). This means that the automaker will have to bear the financial risks itself.

Only last week, new evidence of serious human rights crimes against the Uyghurs became public (China.Table reported). Numerous governments and parliaments of democratic states as well as human rights organizations have accused China of forcibly detaining at least one million Muslims in camps in the western province of Xinjiang. The US government speaks of genocide in view of the systematically controlled declining birth rates among Uyghurs as well as violence, torture and murder by Chinese authorities. The government in Beijing categorically rejects all accusations as lies.

The Chinese market remains extremely important for Volkswagen. The Wolfsburg company is the market leader there. Group CEO Diess is confident that the People’s Republic will remain the engine of growth, despite the recent Covid lockdowns and the economic slowdown in China: “Although China is already the largest car market in the world, comparatively few vehicles are still sold in relation to the population,” Diess explained. For example, China has 250 to 300 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. In Germany, the number is around 600, and in the US it is around 800. “These figures alone make it clear that China will remain by far the largest growth market,” said Diess. rtr

  • Autoindustrie

Shanghai prepares to lift lockdown on Wednesday

Two months after the lockdown began in Shanghai, preparations are underway to lift the strict Covid restrictions. As of 00:00 (local time) on Wednesday, certain restrictions on individual freedom of movement will be lifted, the city government said on Monday. Thus, people will again be able to leave their residential areas if they do not live in high-risk neighborhoods. Earlier this month, restrictions had been drastically tightened (China.Table reported).

“Currently, our city’s epidemic prevention and control situation is steadily improving, and the epidemic has come under effective control,” the city government announced on its channel on WeChat. However, residents are still urged to wear masks, avoid crowds and get vaccinated. Businesses had already been allowed to resume operations earlier.

However, many city residents complain that promised relaxations exist only in theory, but are effectively prevented by neighborhood committees of individual apartment blocks. Many affected residents look forward to the supposed return to normality with corresponding skepticism.

As of Wednesday, public transport will also largely return to regular service, the administration announced. In addition, private vehicles will again be allowed on roads without permission. Most recently, people were not allowed to drive even in their own cars without explicit permits.

The city has passed a stress test under extreme conditions, said Shanghai’s CP secretary Li Qiang. Now, everything would be done to boost economic recovery.

Beijing: one Covid case, thousands in quarantine

Meanwhile, thousands of people in Beijing have been placed under Covid quarantine because a neighbor failed to comply with a self-quarantine order and later tested positive for the virus. The 42-year-old man had repeatedly violated the authorities’ order after he was found to be in contact with a positive case after visiting a shopping mall.

Reportedly, he had left his apartment several times and had gone for walks in the neighborhood. Later, the man and his wife tested positive. As a result, 5,000 neighbors of the apartment block had to isolate themselves at home. 250 of his neighbors were moved to quarantine centers.

China is pursuing a strict zero-Covid strategy. With strict lockdowns, mass testing and long quarantine periods, authorities try to stop outbreaks immediately. Violations of regulations are severely punished. The 42-year-old is now also under investigation. rtr/rad

  • Beijing
  • Coronavirus
  • Health

Hong Kong’s new chief enjoys full CCP support

The upcoming Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee is entering his first term in office with full support from China’s central government. Three weeks after his election, the 64-year-old traveled to Beijing on Saturday for his inaugural visit. China’s Head of State Xi Jinping received him there on Monday and expressed his total trust in him. Lee was the Communist Party’s preferred candidate to succeed Carrie Lam, who is still in office (China.Table reported). He will take over the reins of government from his predecessor on July 1.

“I believe that the administration of the new government will definitely bring forth a new atmosphere, and compose a new chapter in Hong Kong’s development,” Xi said. Lee would have the “courage to take responsibility” and “had made contributions to safeguarding national security and Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability”. Xi added that “the central government fully affirms and fully trusts you”.

Lee is a former Hong Kong police officer and Security Minister. Both during the protest movement almost three years ago, in which millions of people took part because of the loss of their civil rights, and in the years since, Lee has played a central role in the political cleansing of the city in Beijing’s best interests (China.Table reported). Opposition politicians, publicists or activists are either in prison or have fled into exile.

Critics consider Lee’s election the definitive end of any rule of law in Hong Kong and the nominal beginning of authoritarian rule in the former British Crown Colony. grz

  • Civil Society
  • Hongkong
  • Human Rights
  • Society
  • Xi Jinping

Longest CO2 decline in a decade

China’s carbon dioxide emissions dropped by an estimated 1.4 percent in the first three months of 2022. This marks the third consecutive quarter of declining emissions. According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, this is the longest emissions decline in China in at least a decade.

CO2 emissions peaked in the summer of 2021 before the government tightened real estate policy to curb speculation and financial risks. Since then, emissions have fallen.

The main reasons for the current decline in early 2022 are the ongoing slowdown in the real estate sector, strong increases of green energy and March’s harsh Covid-19 measures.

According to analysts at Carbon Brief, it is very likely that this trend will continue in the second quarter of 2022 – even if the Chinese construction sector has overcome its low point. This is because the impact of the lockdowns as a result of the Corona policy is much more decisive, writes Lauri Myllyvirta of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. rad

  • Climate
  • Emissions
  • Energy
  • Environment
  • Renewable energies

Profile

Christoph Rehage – across China on foot

Christoph Rehage began his hiking tour 15 years ago in Beijing

Christoph Rehage is a hiker, travel blogger and author. For 15 years, he hikes across Asia and Eastern Europe. And he records his experiences. His first book, “The Longest Way,” tells of the mosaic of a multi-layered China and the curse of wanting to keep walking, whatever happens.

The journey began on November 9, 2007, on his 26th birthday. Rehage had previously spent two years studying in Beijing. He wanted to return to Germany on foot. It was the beginning of a journey to find himself, which still hasn’t come to an end. He only takes the plane or train to Germany when there are urgent personal reasons – family matters, doctor’s appointments, book tours. Once those are done, it’s back to where the trip was interrupted.

China has always fascinated him, he says: “The food culture was great, the people incredibly creative, hospitable, helpful.” And the longer he walked, the more he got to know the country and all its contradictions.

‘They always know where I am’

Wherever he went, the man was welcomed with open arms. While his beard kept growing, he stayed with families, slept in fields, in temples, or in the backroom of a restaurant. While hiking, he got the chance to intensively talk to monks, police officers or sex workers who crossed his path. He could perhaps have met these people on well-trodden tourist paths, but the opportunity for deep exchange would hardly have arisen.

Rehage experienced the cosmopolitanism of the Chinese on the one hand, and their caution in their own country on the other, at first hand. “I always had the feeling that there was something tragic about China, that the people there trusted each other less than they trusted me.”

In 2010, Rehage first came into conflict with the local and social surveillance that ordinary Chinese have to live with every day, when he got into a fight with the local police in Kuytun and Wusu. “My passport was taken away, and I had to stay in a hotel for a few days. At that time, I realized: They always know where I am.” Control and authoritarianism have steadily gotten worse since 2010, he believes. “When I first arrived in Beijing in 2005, people were still talking openly. That’s completely gone.”

When his books made him a public figure in China in 2012, he felt this more than ever. “I suddenly had glimpses behind the scenes that you don’t get as a tourist. I got the feeling there are a lot of tag-alongs in China who don’t like the system themselves.” He has long adhered to the red line of censorship. But when Xi Jinping came to power, it became more and more restrictive. “I could not, and I did not want to stay silent any longer. That’s why I started talking.” About Taiwan, genocides, “everything they didn’t want to hear.” But things that were on Rehage’s mind.

Contact with China has been severed

Nowadays, Rehage’s channels are blocked in China due to his political opinions. He is no longer in contact with most of his acquaintances there. “I don’t want to put them in danger.” Three of his friends, whom he talks about in the book, have died. Another – he later learned – spent two years in an internment camp in Xinjiang. “I always carry China in my heart, but the bridges are burning behind me.”

As ambivalent as his relationship with China is his relationship with running. He would like to arrive somewhere, he says, “but so far I’ve always had to leave again. After China, he wandered through Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Turkey and Georgia. Neither the pandemic nor a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis has stopped him from continuing to walk for long. At the moment, Rehage is in Serbia. You can follow his journey on Instagram.

But by now he is looking forward to finishing his journey soon and arriving in Germany. But at the same time, he says, he’s afraid of it. “I’m afraid that the satisfaction won’t set in, and I’ll have to move on again.” But perhaps he will end up settling down in Georgia. “It was the first country where I felt like there is freedom here.” Lisa Marie Jordan

  • Society
  • Xinjiang

Executive Moves

Miriam Steiner is moving from Lerchenberg in Mainz to the German public broadcaster ZDF’s studio in Beijing. As TV correspondent, Steiner will strengthen Ulf Roeller‘s team in the Chinese capital.

Dessert

China’s first free-floating deep-sea wind turbine, named Fuyao, is being towed into position by a tugboat. Fuyao is located off the coast of Guangdong province, where the water depth averages 65 meters, and is equipped with a typhoon-resistant 6.2-megawatt wind turbine.

China.Table editorial office

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    • Achim Wambach advocates free trade
    • China in disinfection frenzy
    • EU criticizes Bachelet’s trip
    • VW defends investment in Xinjiang
    • Lockdown in Shanghai nears end, new quarantine in Beijing
    • Xi expresses faith in Hong Kong’s future Chief Executive
    • CO2 emissions fall for the third quarter in a row
    • Profile: Christoph Rehage travels China by foot
    Dear reader,

    First, the Covid pandemic, then the war in Ukraine – global supply chains are under a lot of pressure these days. So it comes as no surprise that more and more governments have begun to consider decoupling the global economy. The German government currently also notes that it is too dependent on China. For this reason, there are increasing calls for the re-nationalization of certain supply chains.

    Economic expert Achim Wambach sees nothing to be gained from such a policy. Interviewed by Felix Lee, the Head of the ZEW Economic Research Institute explains why the exact opposite would be the solution. Wambach’s recommendation: more free trade. There are many regions in the world that still have a phase of high economic growth ahead of them and where German companies could position themselves very well. Another advantage over China is that not all of these countries are autocracies.

    After all, the strict Covid policy of the leadership in Beijing is only the latest example of how autocratic China can be: Be it streets, apartments, parcels, parks or restaurants – everything that has a surface is being disinfected lately. Even people. So our team in Beijing set out to see how effective the pungent mixtures of ethanol, 1-propanol or 2-propanol truly are in the fight against Covid: Are China’s masked disinfection troops a miracle cure for Covid or mere hygiene theatrics?

    Your
    Michael Radunski
    Image of Michael  Radunski

    Feature

    ‘Detach from dependencies, but not from China itself’

    ZEW President Achim Wambach, Copyright Anna Logue Photography

    Mr. Wambach, Shanghai’s lockdown to fight the pandemic was supposed to last four days. Now it’s been more than two months – while life in the rest of the world is returning to normal. How big is the damage to the German economy?

    China’s lockdowns will have a massive impact on global supply chains. While we won’t see a sudden shock in the next few weeks, we will be faced with increasingly long delays in shipping times. In addition, prices are likely to rise further as a result. Financial market experts, whom we regularly survey, do expect the situation in China to improve slightly over the next six months. But at a low rate. After all, the problems will not be over with the end of the Covid measures. It will take months before trade is back to normal.

    Russia’s campaign against Ukraine shows us once again how risky it is to get too involved with an authoritarian country. Shouldn’t Russia be a lesson to us when it comes to China as well?

    There are several recent studies that look at what we would face if we stopped trade with China. We’re talking about a decrease of about one to four percent of gross domestic product. The Chinese and European economies are highly intertwined.

    That doesn’t sound so bad.

    But it would be. Around ten percent of German exports go to China. Many sales and procurement channels would have to be changed in the event of sharp conflicts. The loss for affected companies would be significantly higher. Then there are the investments made by German companies in the country itself. If their local production were to be impaired, this would at least affect their company value. Stopping business in China is feasible, but it would hurt the German economy a lot. At the moment, however, I do not see such a development. Large German companies continue to invest in China. It is rather small companies that are reconsidering their China business due to the many security regulations.

    Understandable, isn’t it?

    Certainly, after recent experience, we should now take a closer look at the areas in which we have become too dependent on certain countries and where we can build new supply chains. These are the lessons we have learned from the Russian conflict. And this is a question that every major company involved in China is now asking itself. For most of them, however, it is a question of detaching themselves from the dependencies, not from China per se.

    Hasn’t China long since put the screws on some companies? VW and Daimler generate more than half of their revenue in the People’s Republic.

    It would be wrong if VW were to say now: We’re getting out completely. Trade may not have led to the change that was once hoped for. But the intensive exchange has already brought a certain stability to relations. I think Volkswagen and other companies will now determine exactly how vulnerable they are should the West impose broader sanctions on China at some point.

    How exactly?

    I recommend that companies work with stress scenarios. Every company should run through all possible risks. For example, hardly anyone considered Russia to be a risk. Otherwise, we wouldn’t have this gas dependency. There is also too much dependence on a few countries for other raw materials, such as rare minerals or computer chips.

    So to what conclusions can be drawn from such findings?

    German companies should again re-focus on other geographical regions: India and South America, for example, and also North America in VW’s case. This does not mean, however, that all machines in China should come to a standstill for VW. I urge that we continue trading, but that we consistently reduce dependencies. However, it is not enough that only companies practice risk management. As we have seen recently, there are systemic risks that companies alone cannot address. And this is where politics comes in, in the search for new sources of raw materials, for example, but also in the search for new sales markets, for example through additional trade agreements.

    Instead of re-nationalization, you plead for more free trade?

    At least for a more diversified trade. To avoid dependencies, you should not trade with just one partner, but with many. There are still many regions in the world that have a phase of high economic growth ahead of them and where German companies with a lot of experience in international trade would be very well positioned. And not all of them are autocracies.

    Let us take the supply chain act: Even though China has made great progress in recent years in complying with environmental and social standards, it will likely be difficult for German companies to ensure compliance along all supply chains. China lacks independent inspection bodies.

    German companies already had to disclose what standards they comply with. In this respect, the issue is not new for them. I think the German Supply Chain Act is a good compromise. It is relatively cautious in terms of requirements and the depth to which the supply chain can be monitored. But the European equivalent is coming soon, which will be much stricter. This poses greater problems for some German companies.

    The United States is urging its allies to make a choice: China or the USA. Germany appears indecisive on the issue.

    When it came down to it, Germany always made a decision. And it has always decided in favor of the United States. That was the case with the sanctions against Iran, and it is currently the case with Russia. The US market is too important for that, and as our most important NATO partner, the US is also the relevant protecting power. For me, this raises the question of what such a request by the US means in the end? American companies are also active in China. And they have no plans to leave the country either. I think the US is primarily concerned with security-related technologies. And the Germans have long since sided with the US on that.

    Is there no risk of retaliation?

    The spiral of sanctions and counter-sanctions is well known. If we exclude telecommunications companies in Europe, we can expect China to react similarly.

    Will it stay that way?

    I believe so. If China’s leadership overreacts and also bans the supply of machines, cars and pharmaceuticals from Europe, this would severely restrict the supply of its own people. I assume that counter-sanctions will be dosed.

    Achim Wambach has been President of ZEW, the Leibniz Center for European Economic Research, since 2016. He holds a Ph.D. in physics and is a Professor of Economics at the University of Mannheim.

    • Russia
    • Supply chains
    • Trade
    • USA

    Smoke and mirrors: How pointless Covid disinfections disappear in the air

    Disinfection of the streets of Zhengzhou

    Whether it’s roads, homes, packages and letters from abroad, or even just people. China’s authorities have concluded that pretty much anything with a surface can transmit the Coronavirus. That is why everything is being sprayed like there is no tomorrow. Social networks are full of videos and photos showing entire battalions of pandemic workers in white protective gear marching through the streets, fogging roadways, sidewalks and every lamppost that comes their way with their spray guns.

    But while China’s disinfection troops caused amusement at first, the mood has now taken a massive turn. Authorities have begun to impose forced sanitization not only in public places, but also in private homes. In Shanghai and other parts of the country, reports of angry apartment owners being sent to quarantine centers are mounting. In their absence, cleaners invaded their homes, leaving furniture and floors soaked in disinfectant.

    Images of people who have been lined up and then fired upon with disinfectant have also caused an uproar. Many firefighters in Shanghai no longer perform their actual duties, but have long since become an integral part of the disinfection squads that move from apartment to apartment. And disinfection robots are deployed at train stations and airports.

    In contrast, a disinfection robot is used in the Huzhou train station

    Experts note that all these efforts are one thing above all else: A huge waste of resources. Several studies show that the chance of transmission of the virus via contaminated surfaces is extremely low. On the other hand, disinfection could present a risk to health and the environment.

    Studies prove low infection risk via surfaces

    The US Department of Health and Human Services estimates that contact with a surface contaminated with Covid-19 results in infection in only 1 in 10,000 cases. A two-year study published in April in the Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology estimates the odds as low as 1 in 100,000.

    Given such numbers, most observers agree that the authorities have other motivations at heart. The images are intended to “boost public confidence in government action,” Hong Kong professor Nicholas Thomas told US television network CNN. Many China observers call this spray campaign nothing more than “hygiene theatrics” that have nothing to do with meaningful preventive measures. The intention is to show the people that the government does not sit idly by.

    But outside on the field people take care of disinfection

    Still, some researchers consider the strict measures to be sensible. Disinfecting surfaces is irrelevant to most countries’ strategies, says Leo Poon, a researcher at Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health. But China, which is pursuing an elimination strategy, has little choice.

    The risk of transmission is extremely low. However, any single infection would potentially trigger a new wave. China’s chief epidemiologist, Wu Zunyou, recently said that while the likelihood of infection from contaminated surfaces is low, it remains possible with repeated exposure.

    The World Health Organization, on the other hand, takes a clear position. In outdoor areas, large-scale fumigation is “not recommended,” according to the WHO’s official guidelines. Streets and sidewalks are not infection routes for the virus. Spraying disinfectants could be “harmful to health” and cause eye, respiratory or skin irritation.

    But disinfection measures make sense in the right places: at home, in the office, in schools or gyms. Here, it is recommended to regularly disinfect so-called high-touch surfaces. The WHO cites door and window handles, kitchen countertops, bathroom surfaces, toilets and faucets as examples. Joern Petring/Gregor Koppenburg

    • Coronavirus
    • Health
    • WHO

    News

    EU regrets Bachelet trip

    China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is visibly pleased with Michelle Bachelet’s visit to China.

    The European Union has expressed “regret” over the trip of UN human rights envoy Michelle Bachelet. Bachelet did not have full access to persecuted groups, individuals and detention centers during her visit to Xinjiang last week, European External Action Service (EEAS) spokeswoman Nabila Massrali lamented in Brussels on Monday.

    Massrali pointed to extensive “credible reports about systematic human rights violations in Xinjiang” and said “independent monitoring, fact-finding and investigations” are the only ways to properly evaluate the situation in China’s Western province.

    “While taking note of the non-investigative nature of the visit, we regret that the high commissioner’s access to independent civil society organizations, human rights defenders and detention centers was limited, and that this did not allow her to assess the full scale of political re-education camps in Xinjiang,” Massrali said.

    Meanwhile, Beijing has praised Bachelet’s six-day visit as a great success. It was the UN human rights chief’s first visit to China since 2005 (China.Table reported). “It needs to be pointed out that certain Western countries, out of ulterior motives, went to great lengths to disrupt and undercut the High Commissioner’s visit,” Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu said Saturday. “Their plot didn’t succeed.” Bachelet also defended her trip to China (China.Table reported).

    As the South China Morning Post newspaper reported, the EU is expected to receive a full report on the trip next week. rad

    • Civil Society
    • EU
    • Human Rights
    • United Nations
    • Xinjiang

    VW boss: ‘Volkswagen improves the situation of Uyghurs’

    Despite recent revelations of human rights violations against the Uyghur Muslim minority in China, Volkswagen intends to continue operating its plant in Xinjiang province. “I believe that the presence of SAIC Volkswagen leads to the situation improving for people,” Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told the German newspaper Handelsblatt (Monday edition), referring to the Saic Volkswagen joint venture there. “We travel there, and like everywhere in the world we ensure our labor standards are implemented, and that cultural and religious differences are respected.” If there were any starting points for violations, action would be taken against them, Diess continued.

    VW has repeatedly faced criticism because the car manufacturer has been operating a factory in the city of Urumqi together with the Chinese state-owned group Saic since 2013. Recently, the Dax group is said to have been denied investment guarantees for the region by the German government (China.Table reported). This means that the automaker will have to bear the financial risks itself.

    Only last week, new evidence of serious human rights crimes against the Uyghurs became public (China.Table reported). Numerous governments and parliaments of democratic states as well as human rights organizations have accused China of forcibly detaining at least one million Muslims in camps in the western province of Xinjiang. The US government speaks of genocide in view of the systematically controlled declining birth rates among Uyghurs as well as violence, torture and murder by Chinese authorities. The government in Beijing categorically rejects all accusations as lies.

    The Chinese market remains extremely important for Volkswagen. The Wolfsburg company is the market leader there. Group CEO Diess is confident that the People’s Republic will remain the engine of growth, despite the recent Covid lockdowns and the economic slowdown in China: “Although China is already the largest car market in the world, comparatively few vehicles are still sold in relation to the population,” Diess explained. For example, China has 250 to 300 cars per 1,000 inhabitants. In Germany, the number is around 600, and in the US it is around 800. “These figures alone make it clear that China will remain by far the largest growth market,” said Diess. rtr

    • Autoindustrie

    Shanghai prepares to lift lockdown on Wednesday

    Two months after the lockdown began in Shanghai, preparations are underway to lift the strict Covid restrictions. As of 00:00 (local time) on Wednesday, certain restrictions on individual freedom of movement will be lifted, the city government said on Monday. Thus, people will again be able to leave their residential areas if they do not live in high-risk neighborhoods. Earlier this month, restrictions had been drastically tightened (China.Table reported).

    “Currently, our city’s epidemic prevention and control situation is steadily improving, and the epidemic has come under effective control,” the city government announced on its channel on WeChat. However, residents are still urged to wear masks, avoid crowds and get vaccinated. Businesses had already been allowed to resume operations earlier.

    However, many city residents complain that promised relaxations exist only in theory, but are effectively prevented by neighborhood committees of individual apartment blocks. Many affected residents look forward to the supposed return to normality with corresponding skepticism.

    As of Wednesday, public transport will also largely return to regular service, the administration announced. In addition, private vehicles will again be allowed on roads without permission. Most recently, people were not allowed to drive even in their own cars without explicit permits.

    The city has passed a stress test under extreme conditions, said Shanghai’s CP secretary Li Qiang. Now, everything would be done to boost economic recovery.

    Beijing: one Covid case, thousands in quarantine

    Meanwhile, thousands of people in Beijing have been placed under Covid quarantine because a neighbor failed to comply with a self-quarantine order and later tested positive for the virus. The 42-year-old man had repeatedly violated the authorities’ order after he was found to be in contact with a positive case after visiting a shopping mall.

    Reportedly, he had left his apartment several times and had gone for walks in the neighborhood. Later, the man and his wife tested positive. As a result, 5,000 neighbors of the apartment block had to isolate themselves at home. 250 of his neighbors were moved to quarantine centers.

    China is pursuing a strict zero-Covid strategy. With strict lockdowns, mass testing and long quarantine periods, authorities try to stop outbreaks immediately. Violations of regulations are severely punished. The 42-year-old is now also under investigation. rtr/rad

    • Beijing
    • Coronavirus
    • Health

    Hong Kong’s new chief enjoys full CCP support

    The upcoming Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee is entering his first term in office with full support from China’s central government. Three weeks after his election, the 64-year-old traveled to Beijing on Saturday for his inaugural visit. China’s Head of State Xi Jinping received him there on Monday and expressed his total trust in him. Lee was the Communist Party’s preferred candidate to succeed Carrie Lam, who is still in office (China.Table reported). He will take over the reins of government from his predecessor on July 1.

    “I believe that the administration of the new government will definitely bring forth a new atmosphere, and compose a new chapter in Hong Kong’s development,” Xi said. Lee would have the “courage to take responsibility” and “had made contributions to safeguarding national security and Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability”. Xi added that “the central government fully affirms and fully trusts you”.

    Lee is a former Hong Kong police officer and Security Minister. Both during the protest movement almost three years ago, in which millions of people took part because of the loss of their civil rights, and in the years since, Lee has played a central role in the political cleansing of the city in Beijing’s best interests (China.Table reported). Opposition politicians, publicists or activists are either in prison or have fled into exile.

    Critics consider Lee’s election the definitive end of any rule of law in Hong Kong and the nominal beginning of authoritarian rule in the former British Crown Colony. grz

    • Civil Society
    • Hongkong
    • Human Rights
    • Society
    • Xi Jinping

    Longest CO2 decline in a decade

    China’s carbon dioxide emissions dropped by an estimated 1.4 percent in the first three months of 2022. This marks the third consecutive quarter of declining emissions. According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, this is the longest emissions decline in China in at least a decade.

    CO2 emissions peaked in the summer of 2021 before the government tightened real estate policy to curb speculation and financial risks. Since then, emissions have fallen.

    The main reasons for the current decline in early 2022 are the ongoing slowdown in the real estate sector, strong increases of green energy and March’s harsh Covid-19 measures.

    According to analysts at Carbon Brief, it is very likely that this trend will continue in the second quarter of 2022 – even if the Chinese construction sector has overcome its low point. This is because the impact of the lockdowns as a result of the Corona policy is much more decisive, writes Lauri Myllyvirta of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air. rad

    • Climate
    • Emissions
    • Energy
    • Environment
    • Renewable energies

    Profile

    Christoph Rehage – across China on foot

    Christoph Rehage began his hiking tour 15 years ago in Beijing

    Christoph Rehage is a hiker, travel blogger and author. For 15 years, he hikes across Asia and Eastern Europe. And he records his experiences. His first book, “The Longest Way,” tells of the mosaic of a multi-layered China and the curse of wanting to keep walking, whatever happens.

    The journey began on November 9, 2007, on his 26th birthday. Rehage had previously spent two years studying in Beijing. He wanted to return to Germany on foot. It was the beginning of a journey to find himself, which still hasn’t come to an end. He only takes the plane or train to Germany when there are urgent personal reasons – family matters, doctor’s appointments, book tours. Once those are done, it’s back to where the trip was interrupted.

    China has always fascinated him, he says: “The food culture was great, the people incredibly creative, hospitable, helpful.” And the longer he walked, the more he got to know the country and all its contradictions.

    ‘They always know where I am’

    Wherever he went, the man was welcomed with open arms. While his beard kept growing, he stayed with families, slept in fields, in temples, or in the backroom of a restaurant. While hiking, he got the chance to intensively talk to monks, police officers or sex workers who crossed his path. He could perhaps have met these people on well-trodden tourist paths, but the opportunity for deep exchange would hardly have arisen.

    Rehage experienced the cosmopolitanism of the Chinese on the one hand, and their caution in their own country on the other, at first hand. “I always had the feeling that there was something tragic about China, that the people there trusted each other less than they trusted me.”

    In 2010, Rehage first came into conflict with the local and social surveillance that ordinary Chinese have to live with every day, when he got into a fight with the local police in Kuytun and Wusu. “My passport was taken away, and I had to stay in a hotel for a few days. At that time, I realized: They always know where I am.” Control and authoritarianism have steadily gotten worse since 2010, he believes. “When I first arrived in Beijing in 2005, people were still talking openly. That’s completely gone.”

    When his books made him a public figure in China in 2012, he felt this more than ever. “I suddenly had glimpses behind the scenes that you don’t get as a tourist. I got the feeling there are a lot of tag-alongs in China who don’t like the system themselves.” He has long adhered to the red line of censorship. But when Xi Jinping came to power, it became more and more restrictive. “I could not, and I did not want to stay silent any longer. That’s why I started talking.” About Taiwan, genocides, “everything they didn’t want to hear.” But things that were on Rehage’s mind.

    Contact with China has been severed

    Nowadays, Rehage’s channels are blocked in China due to his political opinions. He is no longer in contact with most of his acquaintances there. “I don’t want to put them in danger.” Three of his friends, whom he talks about in the book, have died. Another – he later learned – spent two years in an internment camp in Xinjiang. “I always carry China in my heart, but the bridges are burning behind me.”

    As ambivalent as his relationship with China is his relationship with running. He would like to arrive somewhere, he says, “but so far I’ve always had to leave again. After China, he wandered through Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Turkey and Georgia. Neither the pandemic nor a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis has stopped him from continuing to walk for long. At the moment, Rehage is in Serbia. You can follow his journey on Instagram.

    But by now he is looking forward to finishing his journey soon and arriving in Germany. But at the same time, he says, he’s afraid of it. “I’m afraid that the satisfaction won’t set in, and I’ll have to move on again.” But perhaps he will end up settling down in Georgia. “It was the first country where I felt like there is freedom here.” Lisa Marie Jordan

    • Society
    • Xinjiang

    Executive Moves

    Miriam Steiner is moving from Lerchenberg in Mainz to the German public broadcaster ZDF’s studio in Beijing. As TV correspondent, Steiner will strengthen Ulf Roeller‘s team in the Chinese capital.

    Dessert

    China’s first free-floating deep-sea wind turbine, named Fuyao, is being towed into position by a tugboat. Fuyao is located off the coast of Guangdong province, where the water depth averages 65 meters, and is equipped with a typhoon-resistant 6.2-megawatt wind turbine.

    China.Table editorial office

    CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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