Table.Briefing: China

Xi’s plan for Taiwan + Election in Australia

  • Interview: Alexander Goerlach sees Taiwan at risk
  • Australia election – focus on China
  • Cooperation with German universities benefits China’s military
  • German government: better protect human rights lawyers
  • German Parliament: strengthen Taiwan’s role in WHO
  • Yellen wants to abolish tariffs
  • China proposes BRICS expansion
  • Airline industry suffers bitter Covid losses
  • Profile: Haining (Helen) Feng – musical multi-talent
Dear reader,

Xi Jinping currently has his hands full: The Covid pandemic has flared up again, growth has slowed, and foreign investors are threatening to leave. So no more time for conflict with Taiwan? A false assumption, Alexander Goerlach warns in an interview with Michael Radunski. Xi has the clear goal of annexing the island republic in his lifetime. Given his not-so-youthful age of 69, analysts are already discussing possible invasion dates. Russia’s costly invasion of Ukraine will not deter Xi, according to Goerlach. You could shrug that off as mere alarmism, since none of us can predict the future. But Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has also surprised many observers.

Australia also plays an important role in the global power struggle for influence in the Indo-Pacific. “Down Under” recently experienced firsthand what it means when Beijing becomes active in its own “backyard”. The Chinese treaty with the Solomon Islands left Australia in shock. With it, China directly pushes into Canberra’s sphere of influence. On Sunday, Australians will elect a new prime minister, and China plays a big role in the election campaign, Christiane Kuehl reports.

The German government can soon expect diplomatic headwinds from the Far East. Yesterday, the Federal Parliament voted in favor of greater Taiwanese participation in the World Health Organization. This is a thorn in Beijing’s side, because it smells of a diplomatic upgrade for Taiwan.

Your
Nico Beckert
Image of Nico  Beckert

Interview

‘China wants to make the Western Pacific its sea’

Alexander Goerlach – China expert and book author

China’s President Xi Jinping can see right now in the Ukraine war how a large and militarily superior country may be defeated by a supposedly inferior nation. Many believe this has made war by China against Taiwan less probable. In your current book, “Alarmstufe Rot” (Red Alter) you argue the contrary: China will soon seize Taiwan. What leads you to this conclusion?

Because there are many parallels between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. What is perhaps most important is that they both believe that they have been chosen by history to return their country to its former glory. And this creates a certain sense of urgency.

But China is becoming more powerful compared to Taiwan anyway. You could say: time is on China’s side.

Yes, absolutely. But the urgency I mentioned is neither objective, nor rational, but perceived subjectively. Xi is under pressure to live up to his historical calling.

That sounds a lot like folk psychology. It’s all just one man’s subjective perception.

No, there are also many rational reasons why Xi is in a hurry. For example, the UN predicts that China’s population will shrink by about 600 million people by 2100. That not only means fewer workers, but also fewer soldiers for potential attacks. Moreover, Xi has announced that he wants to conquer Taiwan within his lifetime. Xi will turn 69 in June. You can do the math yourself, that doesn’t leave him too many years left for the assault.

So you don’t believe that Russia’s problems in the Ukraine war will affect Xi’s plans?

Of course, there will be an evaluation, especially since the Chinese army is being trained by the Russians in, of all things, offensive tactics, urban- and guerrilla warfare, since the Russian army, unlike the Chinese, has plenty of combat experience. But this evaluation will not lead to a re-orientation of Chinese foreign policy.

If a war over Taiwan is this close, what is the mood on the island?

The population is aware of the threat, but does not let it influence their everyday lives much. The government is not panicking either, and is pursuing a rational policy. President Tsai Ing-wen has made it clear that Taiwan will not give up its democracy. Looking at China, the fate of Hong Kong is on their mind. That is why Taipei has recently increased its arms procurement. They are well aware that they must defend themselves against Beijing’s attack.

The Taiwan question is certainly not new. For decades, the status quo has existed, and everyone can live with it…

No, Xi Jinping cannot. He is not a man of the status quo, but a revisionist. He wants to change China’s status in the world by taking revenge on the despised West, a partner of Taiwan. That is why Xi threatens to use weapons and the military. I strongly urge against dismissing his claims as empty words. We have already made this mistake with Putin.

China constantly emphasizes that it has not started any wars itself. It is only the Americans who do that. So why do you accuse Beijing of such a thing?

American democracy has been in crisis for decades. The unjustified war in Iraq is just one example. But the drastic and dangerous thing is what Xi does with this observation: He wants China to act exactly like America, because in his view that is the behavior of a superpower. Since the US has a prison camp in Guantanamo, Beijing now wants to turn the whole of Xinjiang into a prison. What kind of logic is that?

But China, and this is the crucial point, would have had the opportunity to do better than the USA. Xi’s failure to recognize this or his lack of interest in doing so is his historical mistake. He is turning the country into an expansive military power that wants to dominate the Pacific as a hegemony. We should be clear: The question is not whether Taiwan will be attacked by China, but when.

So what is your prognosis?

Military experts are already discussing various dates, which I also explain in my book. It could be 2027, because by then, China’s military reform will be complete. Two lessons from the Ukraine war will factor into the assessment: the West’s united response and the population’s will to defend itself. The people of Taiwan also won’t be standing on the side of the road, strewing flowers and singing hosannas, either.

You said earlier that China wants to dominate the Pacific as a hegemony.

Correct. Taiwan is just the beginning, Xi Jinping’s plans are more far-reaching. China is about transforming the Western Pacific into its waters.

And how will this succeed? The Western Pacific is international waters with international sea lanes and various countries pursuing their own interests in the region.

Make no mistake, the first steps there have already been taken. It began with laying claim to islands, as well as developing reefs and rocks into bases. This shifts national borders, because the surrounding 200 nautical miles are then no longer considered international waters, but national territory.

But China’s rampant claims in the South China Sea were dismissed as illegitimate by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

Only that Beijing does not care. Rather, it shows that China also wants to attack our rule-based world order. China is simply making its own rules.

For example?

Analogous to the National Security Law for Hong Kong, there is now a maritime security law that gives Beijing full authority. This means that if the Chinese navy wanted to, it could shoot down any ship in these waters.

In its claims, China cites an ominous historic “Nine-Dash-Line”. This should clarify the extent of its claims.

Not at all. The Nine-Dash-Line has long since received another dash from Beijing’s strategists. The more powerful China becomes, the greater China’s desire for new territories.

Where is this going to lead?

I see an analogy from history: The Roman Empire once made the Mediterranean Sea its Mare Nostrum. Now China wants to make the Western Pacific its sea.

What role could Germany play in all this?

First, I see a big problem here: Many are aware of the individual conflicts, be it over Taiwan, with India or the Philippines. But there is a certain mental apathy in our politics in particular. There is a lack of a holistic view of China to recognize what goal the People’s Republic is pursuing overall.

That’s why my book is also about digital surveillance and the New Silk Road initiative. Only all of this together provides a complete picture of China’s goals. And on this basis, Germany must find its role. In my opinion, close coordination with local democracies is required, as well as with the global power, the United States.

Alexander Goerlach holds a Ph.D. in linguistics and theology. He has been a Fellow and Visiting Scholar at Harvard University and the University of Cambridge. In 2020, he published “Brennpunkt Hongkong: Warum sich in China die Zukunft der freien Welt entscheidet” (Hotspot Hong Kong: Why the Future of the Free World Will Be Decided in China). His new book is now available: “Alarmstufe Rot – Wie Chinas aggressive Außenpolitik im Pazifik in einen globalen Krieg führt” (Red Alert – How China’s aggressive foreign policy in the Pacific is leading to a global war), Hoffmann und Campe, May 2022, 240 p., 24 euros.

  • Geopolitics
  • Indo-Pacific
  • Russia
  • Taiwan
  • Ukraine

Feature

Election campaign in Australia: a clear stance against Beijing

Die beiden Kandidaten Albanese und Morrison schütteln einander die Hände und gucken in die Kamera.
Dispute over the right way to deal with China: Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison (right) and his opponent Anthony Albanese before their third TV debate.

When he became Prime Minister in 2019, Scott Morrison was a foreign policy newcomer. And he was immediately faced with unprecedented challenges – a confident China, for example, and the growing rivalry between the rising People’s Republic and the United States. Now, Morrison warns that this is not the time to put power in the hands of an inexperienced candidate – namely his opponent from the Labor Party, Anthony Albanese.

Morrison governs in a coalition of his conservative Liberal Party and the National Party. He has made national defense a central element of his election campaign. And China plays a central role in it. For example, he called opposition leader Anthony Albanese as being soft on Beijing – and suggested that only he was tough enough to stand up to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “China’s growing power and influence are a geostrategic fact,” Morrison said in a speech in March. “There’s no doubt that China has become more assertive, and is using its power in ways that are causing concern to nations across the region and beyond.”

China: Solomon Islands deal in middle of Australia’s election

China demonstrated its influence once again very recently. A few weeks ago, Beijing signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands (China.Table reported), some 2,000 kilometers northeast of Australia. The agreement allows China’s navy to use Solomon Islands ports to resupply. The Morrison government faced backlash for neglecting Australia’s backyard – and responded with bellicose words. “We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep,” Morrison warned. Minister for Defence Peter Dutton even swore his fellow Australians in for a potential conflict.

In turn, the Labor Party accused the Prime Minister of inaction. Morrison had simply stood idly by while China and the Solomon Islands signed the agreement, criticized Albanese’s Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong. Meanwhile, the Solomon Islands government in Honiara has publicly ruled out a Chinese military base. Both Australia and the US continue to court cooperation with Honiara.

Australia election: both parties with a hard China line

Despite all the security policy bravado displayed by Morrison’s government, Albanese’s Labor Party is leading the polls ahead of Sunday’s (May 21) election. Essentially, it pursues a similar China policy as the government – only with a softer tone. “They accuse the current government of having employed divisive rhetoric to demonstrate how tough they are on China, and they claim that the government has been using antagonism towards China for domestic political purposes,” said Natasha Kassam, Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

But the Labor position also remains clear on the issue, with Penny Wong insisting China alone is responsible for the deteriorating relationship between the two countries. “To be very clear, an Albanese Labor government would not take a backwards step when it comes to standing up for Australia’s interest, in this relationship or in any other relationship,” Wong said. In a British Guardian poll, 37 percent of respondents said they were more likely to trust Labor on relations with China. Only 28 percent trusted the Conservative coalition. A large majority of voters (61 percent) also see China as a complex issue that needs to be addressed – rather than solely as a threat that needs to be confronted.

Australians of Chinese origin account for more than five percent of the population. More than every twentieth Australian comes from China, Malaysia, Singapore or Taiwan. By no means all of them are followers of the Chinese Communist Party. Many immigrants fled the People’s Republic after the military fired on protesters on Tiananmen Square in June 1989 – and many support Morrison’s tough rhetoric against Beijing.

New military alliances against China

According to a survey by US think tank Pew Research, a negative view of China has increased sharply among Australians between 2019 and 2021. Instead of 57 percent, 78 percent now take a critical stance toward the People’s Republic. That’s no surprise, given that China-Australia relations have been in a nosedive since 2018. At that time, Australia became the first country ever to ban telecommunications giant Huawei from rolling out its 5G networks. It also passed several laws against foreign interference. The target of the laws: China in particular.

Back in April 2020, Morrison already called for an independent investigation into the origins of the Coronavirus. China’s government reacted furiously – and imposed punitive tariffs on Australian beef and grain, for example, and later on wine and coal. State media poured criticism and malice on Australia. In September 2021, Australia jointly founded the military alliance AUKUS with the UK and the US, which is at least implicitly directed against China. The new alliance provided Canberra with nuclear submarines from the United States, among other things. In January, Australia signed a military pact with Japan (China.Table reported).

China still dependent on ore from Australia

Despite the tensions, bilateral trade sustained relatively little damage. China is still by far Australia’s largest trading partner. This is largely because China relies on iron ore from Australia. In 2020, 60 percent of China’s iron ore imports came from Australia (China.Table reported).

Bloomberg recently interviewed Chinese-born Australians in the Chisholm constituency. Most of them said they were undecided, and all identified the economy as one of their top concerns. Some, therefore, leaned toward Morrison and his party, which they perceived as better economic managers. Still, almost all expressed some unease about the deteriorating ties with China. This concern is not likely to subside after the election.

  • Australia
  • Geopolitics
  • Indo-Pacific

News

German universities cooperate with Chinese military institutions

European scientists cooperate with Chinese military institutions in thousands of cases. This is the result of an investigative study by Correctiv, Follow the Money and nine other media outlets. The journalists analyzed more than 350,000 scientific studies from the years 2000 to 2022. In almost 3,000 cases, European researchers have collaborated with military institutions from China. For Germany, the journalists found 349 scientific publications in which German researchers cooperated with China’s military.

In this process, the Chinese side gains “technological knowledge and important relationships,” according to the journalists. The cooperation ultimately serves to build up and further develop the Chinese military.

The joint research work reportedly involves areas such as encryption and decryption technology, the tracking of groups of individuals, robotic navigation or the generation of 3D maps and facial recognition. Here, the Chinese side can gain valuable knowledge for military and police applications – for example, the monitoring of gatherings or minorities. The most frequent cooperation between German scientists and universities is with the Chinese National University of Defence Technology. It also happens that Chinese scientists conceal their true background and European universities only learn about their links to military institutions after the fact.

The German government and universities point to the freedom of research when faced with this problem. So far, there are no regulations on scientific cooperation with China. However, the government wants to sensitize universities and scientists, according to Correctiv research. It is not yet clear whether the German government’s new China strategy will address research cooperation. nib

  • Research
  • Science
  • Universities

German government concerned about human rights situation

The human rights situation in the People’s Republic has deteriorated continuously over the past ten years. But human rights advocates have also been a particular focus of the state security apparatus. This was reported by a representative of the German government in the Committee on Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid of the German Bundestag.

Chinese security authorities reportedly exert extreme control over lawyers who handle human rights cases. It is estimated that one-third of the 100 human rights lawyers in China have been detained or had their licenses revoked.

The reprisals take many forms. Lawyers are abducted to unknown locations, court proceedings against them are intransparent, and prison sentences are extended without reason. According to the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, relatives are also being put under pressure.

The German government regularly raises the issue of imprisonment in bilateral talks. At the same time, the government representative acknowledged that this had only a limited effect. Regarding a planned visit by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, to Xinjiang province, the government representative said that talks on the ground without outside influence would hardly be possible. Nevertheless, the visit is still crucial to publish the report on the human rights situation in China, which has been announced in 2021.

Bachelet is expected to travel to China next week, Bloomberg reports, citing anonymous sources. She will stay in the country for six to seven days. Bachelet will not have to go into quarantine because China has “special arrangements for high-level visits by foreign dignitaries,” according to a UN spokeswoman. nib

  • Civil Society
  • Human Rights
  • Xinjiang

Germany to upgrade Taiwan’s WHO status

The German Bundestag wants to upgrade Taiwan’s status at the WHO. On Thursday, a corresponding motion by the SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP was adopted. In a resolution, the parliamentary groups had called on the German government to lobby the WHO to allow Taiwan to once again participate as an observer in the World Health Assembly and other WHO bodies and activities. The Bundestag thus openly opposes China, which opposes a diplomatic upgrade of the country, which Beijing considers a secessionist province.

WHO has already received a similar request from 13 other members lobbying for Taiwan’s participation as an observer at the annual session of the World Health Assembly (WHA), which will be held in Geneva from May 22-28. A WHO spokesman informed that a decision on the matter is expected to be made next Monday, the second day of the meeting.

Taiwan criticizes WHO

In a statement, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs complained that WHO had failed to remain neutral and professional and had repeatedly ignored the need and urgency for Taiwan’s participation in WHO meetings and the World Health Assembly.

From 2009 to 2016, Taiwan was already able to participate in the World Health Assembly as an observer. After the election of President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, China blocked Taiwan’s observer status, invoking the so-called One-China policy, which Germany also adheres to.

The parliamentary groups in the Bundestag argue that the Covid pandemic demonstrated the urgency of global cooperation. Taiwan was considered particularly successful in fighting the pandemic. ” In the opinion of the German Bundestag, global health issues should not be politicized, but instead should focus exclusively on achieving the global goal of ‘health for all’” the statement said. rtr/jul

  • Health
  • Taiwan
  • WHO

Yellen plans to lift China tariffs

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has voiced her support to the Biden administration for the abolition of some tariffs on Chinese imports, Reuters reports. Some of the levies “aren’t very strategic” and harm US companies and consumers.

The tariffs introduced under former US President Trump have nothing to do with the problems the US has with China, Yellen said. She was referring to unfair trade practices, national security issues or supply chain vulnerabilities. Within the Biden administration, there are varying opinions on the issue. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai is in favor of retaining the tariffs. Tariffs of up to 25 percent apply, for example, to consumer goods such as bicycles or clothing.

Yellen also spoke in favor of diversifying global supply chains. She said that dependence on China was too high, as demonstrated once again by the current Covid lockdowns. Among other things, she said, efforts must be made to obtain key minerals such as rare earth elements from other sources to reduce dependence on China. The United States and its European allies should also stand united against questionable economic practices by the Chinese government. nib/rtr

  • Rare earths
  • Raw materials
  • Trade
  • USA

China wants to expand BRICS

China wants to expand the emerging economies group BRICS. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in an online meeting of BRICS countries, “China proposes to start the BRICS expansion process, explore the criteria and procedures for the expansion, and gradually form a consensus.” The group of countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa was formed in 2009. Details on enlargement or potential candidates for membership are not yet known.

BRICS is not a formal alliance. However, in recent years the group has set up a joint development bank that is also active in other countries. There is also cooperation to avert financial crises. An expansion of the BRICS group could strengthen South-South cooperation and compete with Western alliances and institutions. However, there are also border disputes and other conflicts between BRICS members. nib

  • Geopolitics
  • India
  • Russia
  • Russland
  • Wang Yi

China’s airlines post heavy losses

Due to strict Covid entry restrictions, China’s aviation industry suffered heavy losses last year. The Chinese aviation regulator estimates the losses in 2021 at the equivalent of almost €12 billion (¥84 billion), according to a Bloomberg report. The losses were mainly attributable to international air traffic, which came to a near standstill. In contrast, domestic air traffic has reportedly returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Air China reported a loss of the equivalent of €2.3 billion (¥16.6 billion) in 2021, according to a report by China’s Global Times, while China Southern Airlines posted a loss of €1.7 billion (¥12 billion). China Eastern Airlines reported similar figures.

Travelers entering China are still subject to a mandatory three-week quarantine. Travelers from many countries are required to present two negative PCR tests, 48 and 24 hours before departure, and a negative rapid test result no more than 12 hours old at the time of departure. In addition, the rule still applies that flight routes will be suspended if multiple passengers on an aircraft test positive for Coronavirus after arrival in China from abroad.

According to the Global Times, China’s Civil Aviation Administration (CAAC) considers propping up airlines through subsidies. However, this might prove to be expensive: The potential cost is estimated at €700 million (¥5 billion), according to the report. jul

  • Aviation
  • Coronavirus
  • Health
  • Industry

Profile

Haining (Helen) Feng – jack of all trades in the music scene

Haining (Helen) Feng

The titles that Haining Feng has received could hardly be more prestigious. She has been called the “pop ambassador of the People’s Republic”. In Western media, she is repeatedly presented as the “Blondie of China,” and she is even often referred to as the “Beijing’s Queen of Rock”. Feng herself, smiling modestly, on the other hand, hangs her rank a bit lower: “A few acquaintances told me that I have now achieved official ancestor status – but probably not for more than ten people. I guess that’s just what happens when you start playing music and manage to stick with it long enough.”

For two decades now, she has been a defining figure in the Chinese alternative scene. Born in Beijing and raised in the US, she was drawn back to the People’s Republic in the early 2000s when she was recruited by MTV China for a job as a host. There she encountered a generation of young Chinese whose subcultural currents had to make do without a relevant music scene, since rebellious genres like rock’n’roll were still on the censorship list until recently.

Beginnings at MTV China

In 2004, she founded the indie-pop band Ziyo and was promptly signed by Warner Music. Soon after, parallel to Ziyo, she formed a rock group, Pet Conspiracy, which also achieved a breakthrough and caused a sensation in the West on a European tour in 2008. Feng endures this double burden for a few years, but ultimately both bands have to break up for personal reasons. But ever since, she has never been able to keep her feet still for long. Feng immediately launches her next project, Nova Heart, in 2010, for which she is still in the spotlight as a singer and producer – and not, as was the case not long ago, as Helen Feng, but rather under her real name, Haining Feng. She called herself Helen when she was younger to be closer to her Western audience. Today, however, she feels that her name change was nothing more than a result of internalized racism that she was instilled with as a child.

Alongside her music career, she still finds the time to run the record label Fake Music Media. The motivation for this stems from the desire to become independent herself and to be able to support other bands in the Chinese-Western exchange. As if her organizational talent was not already sufficiently proven, she also manages something of a private sanctuary. An apartment in Berlin where artist friends such as the photographer Ren Hang, who died in 2017, writer Mian Mian or the music producer Rodion can retreat during important creative phases – “all in the spirit of Berlin, right”?

Musician, record label manager

When speaking, Haining Feng sets the same breakneck pace as her CV is colorful. In one breath, she contrasts her parents’ youth, exiled to Mongolia by Mao, with the burgeoning skate culture she encountered during her time at MTV, only to return to how her family more or less co-founded the Communist Party but was then cast out in the wake of the Cultural Revolution. She’s fed up with constantly being asked the same questions in the West about censorship and artistic freedom, but no doubt sees herself as a critical voice: “I’m not trying to poke the dragon, but like to give it a thorough massage now and then”. The next massage dates are scheduled for the summer, when she will once again electrify the stages of China with Nova Heart. Julius Schwarzwälder

Executive Moves

Sun Haiyan is the new Chinese ambassador to Singapore. Previously, she worked for the International Liaison Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party since 1997. The department’s job is to maintain relations with parties from other countries. Sun succeeds Hong Xiaoyong, who was China’s ambassador to Singapore for four years.

Dessert

Don’t wriggle! In celebration of the crayfish season, the spotlight is on crayfish in Xuyi County in East China’s Jiangsu Province. They’re one of the region’s most famous specialties. They look good on the plate – and in front of the camera, too.

China.Table editorial office

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    • Interview: Alexander Goerlach sees Taiwan at risk
    • Australia election – focus on China
    • Cooperation with German universities benefits China’s military
    • German government: better protect human rights lawyers
    • German Parliament: strengthen Taiwan’s role in WHO
    • Yellen wants to abolish tariffs
    • China proposes BRICS expansion
    • Airline industry suffers bitter Covid losses
    • Profile: Haining (Helen) Feng – musical multi-talent
    Dear reader,

    Xi Jinping currently has his hands full: The Covid pandemic has flared up again, growth has slowed, and foreign investors are threatening to leave. So no more time for conflict with Taiwan? A false assumption, Alexander Goerlach warns in an interview with Michael Radunski. Xi has the clear goal of annexing the island republic in his lifetime. Given his not-so-youthful age of 69, analysts are already discussing possible invasion dates. Russia’s costly invasion of Ukraine will not deter Xi, according to Goerlach. You could shrug that off as mere alarmism, since none of us can predict the future. But Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has also surprised many observers.

    Australia also plays an important role in the global power struggle for influence in the Indo-Pacific. “Down Under” recently experienced firsthand what it means when Beijing becomes active in its own “backyard”. The Chinese treaty with the Solomon Islands left Australia in shock. With it, China directly pushes into Canberra’s sphere of influence. On Sunday, Australians will elect a new prime minister, and China plays a big role in the election campaign, Christiane Kuehl reports.

    The German government can soon expect diplomatic headwinds from the Far East. Yesterday, the Federal Parliament voted in favor of greater Taiwanese participation in the World Health Organization. This is a thorn in Beijing’s side, because it smells of a diplomatic upgrade for Taiwan.

    Your
    Nico Beckert
    Image of Nico  Beckert

    Interview

    ‘China wants to make the Western Pacific its sea’

    Alexander Goerlach – China expert and book author

    China’s President Xi Jinping can see right now in the Ukraine war how a large and militarily superior country may be defeated by a supposedly inferior nation. Many believe this has made war by China against Taiwan less probable. In your current book, “Alarmstufe Rot” (Red Alter) you argue the contrary: China will soon seize Taiwan. What leads you to this conclusion?

    Because there are many parallels between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. What is perhaps most important is that they both believe that they have been chosen by history to return their country to its former glory. And this creates a certain sense of urgency.

    But China is becoming more powerful compared to Taiwan anyway. You could say: time is on China’s side.

    Yes, absolutely. But the urgency I mentioned is neither objective, nor rational, but perceived subjectively. Xi is under pressure to live up to his historical calling.

    That sounds a lot like folk psychology. It’s all just one man’s subjective perception.

    No, there are also many rational reasons why Xi is in a hurry. For example, the UN predicts that China’s population will shrink by about 600 million people by 2100. That not only means fewer workers, but also fewer soldiers for potential attacks. Moreover, Xi has announced that he wants to conquer Taiwan within his lifetime. Xi will turn 69 in June. You can do the math yourself, that doesn’t leave him too many years left for the assault.

    So you don’t believe that Russia’s problems in the Ukraine war will affect Xi’s plans?

    Of course, there will be an evaluation, especially since the Chinese army is being trained by the Russians in, of all things, offensive tactics, urban- and guerrilla warfare, since the Russian army, unlike the Chinese, has plenty of combat experience. But this evaluation will not lead to a re-orientation of Chinese foreign policy.

    If a war over Taiwan is this close, what is the mood on the island?

    The population is aware of the threat, but does not let it influence their everyday lives much. The government is not panicking either, and is pursuing a rational policy. President Tsai Ing-wen has made it clear that Taiwan will not give up its democracy. Looking at China, the fate of Hong Kong is on their mind. That is why Taipei has recently increased its arms procurement. They are well aware that they must defend themselves against Beijing’s attack.

    The Taiwan question is certainly not new. For decades, the status quo has existed, and everyone can live with it…

    No, Xi Jinping cannot. He is not a man of the status quo, but a revisionist. He wants to change China’s status in the world by taking revenge on the despised West, a partner of Taiwan. That is why Xi threatens to use weapons and the military. I strongly urge against dismissing his claims as empty words. We have already made this mistake with Putin.

    China constantly emphasizes that it has not started any wars itself. It is only the Americans who do that. So why do you accuse Beijing of such a thing?

    American democracy has been in crisis for decades. The unjustified war in Iraq is just one example. But the drastic and dangerous thing is what Xi does with this observation: He wants China to act exactly like America, because in his view that is the behavior of a superpower. Since the US has a prison camp in Guantanamo, Beijing now wants to turn the whole of Xinjiang into a prison. What kind of logic is that?

    But China, and this is the crucial point, would have had the opportunity to do better than the USA. Xi’s failure to recognize this or his lack of interest in doing so is his historical mistake. He is turning the country into an expansive military power that wants to dominate the Pacific as a hegemony. We should be clear: The question is not whether Taiwan will be attacked by China, but when.

    So what is your prognosis?

    Military experts are already discussing various dates, which I also explain in my book. It could be 2027, because by then, China’s military reform will be complete. Two lessons from the Ukraine war will factor into the assessment: the West’s united response and the population’s will to defend itself. The people of Taiwan also won’t be standing on the side of the road, strewing flowers and singing hosannas, either.

    You said earlier that China wants to dominate the Pacific as a hegemony.

    Correct. Taiwan is just the beginning, Xi Jinping’s plans are more far-reaching. China is about transforming the Western Pacific into its waters.

    And how will this succeed? The Western Pacific is international waters with international sea lanes and various countries pursuing their own interests in the region.

    Make no mistake, the first steps there have already been taken. It began with laying claim to islands, as well as developing reefs and rocks into bases. This shifts national borders, because the surrounding 200 nautical miles are then no longer considered international waters, but national territory.

    But China’s rampant claims in the South China Sea were dismissed as illegitimate by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

    Only that Beijing does not care. Rather, it shows that China also wants to attack our rule-based world order. China is simply making its own rules.

    For example?

    Analogous to the National Security Law for Hong Kong, there is now a maritime security law that gives Beijing full authority. This means that if the Chinese navy wanted to, it could shoot down any ship in these waters.

    In its claims, China cites an ominous historic “Nine-Dash-Line”. This should clarify the extent of its claims.

    Not at all. The Nine-Dash-Line has long since received another dash from Beijing’s strategists. The more powerful China becomes, the greater China’s desire for new territories.

    Where is this going to lead?

    I see an analogy from history: The Roman Empire once made the Mediterranean Sea its Mare Nostrum. Now China wants to make the Western Pacific its sea.

    What role could Germany play in all this?

    First, I see a big problem here: Many are aware of the individual conflicts, be it over Taiwan, with India or the Philippines. But there is a certain mental apathy in our politics in particular. There is a lack of a holistic view of China to recognize what goal the People’s Republic is pursuing overall.

    That’s why my book is also about digital surveillance and the New Silk Road initiative. Only all of this together provides a complete picture of China’s goals. And on this basis, Germany must find its role. In my opinion, close coordination with local democracies is required, as well as with the global power, the United States.

    Alexander Goerlach holds a Ph.D. in linguistics and theology. He has been a Fellow and Visiting Scholar at Harvard University and the University of Cambridge. In 2020, he published “Brennpunkt Hongkong: Warum sich in China die Zukunft der freien Welt entscheidet” (Hotspot Hong Kong: Why the Future of the Free World Will Be Decided in China). His new book is now available: “Alarmstufe Rot – Wie Chinas aggressive Außenpolitik im Pazifik in einen globalen Krieg führt” (Red Alert – How China’s aggressive foreign policy in the Pacific is leading to a global war), Hoffmann und Campe, May 2022, 240 p., 24 euros.

    • Geopolitics
    • Indo-Pacific
    • Russia
    • Taiwan
    • Ukraine

    Feature

    Election campaign in Australia: a clear stance against Beijing

    Die beiden Kandidaten Albanese und Morrison schütteln einander die Hände und gucken in die Kamera.
    Dispute over the right way to deal with China: Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison (right) and his opponent Anthony Albanese before their third TV debate.

    When he became Prime Minister in 2019, Scott Morrison was a foreign policy newcomer. And he was immediately faced with unprecedented challenges – a confident China, for example, and the growing rivalry between the rising People’s Republic and the United States. Now, Morrison warns that this is not the time to put power in the hands of an inexperienced candidate – namely his opponent from the Labor Party, Anthony Albanese.

    Morrison governs in a coalition of his conservative Liberal Party and the National Party. He has made national defense a central element of his election campaign. And China plays a central role in it. For example, he called opposition leader Anthony Albanese as being soft on Beijing – and suggested that only he was tough enough to stand up to Chinese leader Xi Jinping. “China’s growing power and influence are a geostrategic fact,” Morrison said in a speech in March. “There’s no doubt that China has become more assertive, and is using its power in ways that are causing concern to nations across the region and beyond.”

    China: Solomon Islands deal in middle of Australia’s election

    China demonstrated its influence once again very recently. A few weeks ago, Beijing signed a security pact with the Solomon Islands (China.Table reported), some 2,000 kilometers northeast of Australia. The agreement allows China’s navy to use Solomon Islands ports to resupply. The Morrison government faced backlash for neglecting Australia’s backyard – and responded with bellicose words. “We won’t be having Chinese military naval bases in our region on our doorstep,” Morrison warned. Minister for Defence Peter Dutton even swore his fellow Australians in for a potential conflict.

    In turn, the Labor Party accused the Prime Minister of inaction. Morrison had simply stood idly by while China and the Solomon Islands signed the agreement, criticized Albanese’s Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong. Meanwhile, the Solomon Islands government in Honiara has publicly ruled out a Chinese military base. Both Australia and the US continue to court cooperation with Honiara.

    Australia election: both parties with a hard China line

    Despite all the security policy bravado displayed by Morrison’s government, Albanese’s Labor Party is leading the polls ahead of Sunday’s (May 21) election. Essentially, it pursues a similar China policy as the government – only with a softer tone. “They accuse the current government of having employed divisive rhetoric to demonstrate how tough they are on China, and they claim that the government has been using antagonism towards China for domestic political purposes,” said Natasha Kassam, Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney.

    But the Labor position also remains clear on the issue, with Penny Wong insisting China alone is responsible for the deteriorating relationship between the two countries. “To be very clear, an Albanese Labor government would not take a backwards step when it comes to standing up for Australia’s interest, in this relationship or in any other relationship,” Wong said. In a British Guardian poll, 37 percent of respondents said they were more likely to trust Labor on relations with China. Only 28 percent trusted the Conservative coalition. A large majority of voters (61 percent) also see China as a complex issue that needs to be addressed – rather than solely as a threat that needs to be confronted.

    Australians of Chinese origin account for more than five percent of the population. More than every twentieth Australian comes from China, Malaysia, Singapore or Taiwan. By no means all of them are followers of the Chinese Communist Party. Many immigrants fled the People’s Republic after the military fired on protesters on Tiananmen Square in June 1989 – and many support Morrison’s tough rhetoric against Beijing.

    New military alliances against China

    According to a survey by US think tank Pew Research, a negative view of China has increased sharply among Australians between 2019 and 2021. Instead of 57 percent, 78 percent now take a critical stance toward the People’s Republic. That’s no surprise, given that China-Australia relations have been in a nosedive since 2018. At that time, Australia became the first country ever to ban telecommunications giant Huawei from rolling out its 5G networks. It also passed several laws against foreign interference. The target of the laws: China in particular.

    Back in April 2020, Morrison already called for an independent investigation into the origins of the Coronavirus. China’s government reacted furiously – and imposed punitive tariffs on Australian beef and grain, for example, and later on wine and coal. State media poured criticism and malice on Australia. In September 2021, Australia jointly founded the military alliance AUKUS with the UK and the US, which is at least implicitly directed against China. The new alliance provided Canberra with nuclear submarines from the United States, among other things. In January, Australia signed a military pact with Japan (China.Table reported).

    China still dependent on ore from Australia

    Despite the tensions, bilateral trade sustained relatively little damage. China is still by far Australia’s largest trading partner. This is largely because China relies on iron ore from Australia. In 2020, 60 percent of China’s iron ore imports came from Australia (China.Table reported).

    Bloomberg recently interviewed Chinese-born Australians in the Chisholm constituency. Most of them said they were undecided, and all identified the economy as one of their top concerns. Some, therefore, leaned toward Morrison and his party, which they perceived as better economic managers. Still, almost all expressed some unease about the deteriorating ties with China. This concern is not likely to subside after the election.

    • Australia
    • Geopolitics
    • Indo-Pacific

    News

    German universities cooperate with Chinese military institutions

    European scientists cooperate with Chinese military institutions in thousands of cases. This is the result of an investigative study by Correctiv, Follow the Money and nine other media outlets. The journalists analyzed more than 350,000 scientific studies from the years 2000 to 2022. In almost 3,000 cases, European researchers have collaborated with military institutions from China. For Germany, the journalists found 349 scientific publications in which German researchers cooperated with China’s military.

    In this process, the Chinese side gains “technological knowledge and important relationships,” according to the journalists. The cooperation ultimately serves to build up and further develop the Chinese military.

    The joint research work reportedly involves areas such as encryption and decryption technology, the tracking of groups of individuals, robotic navigation or the generation of 3D maps and facial recognition. Here, the Chinese side can gain valuable knowledge for military and police applications – for example, the monitoring of gatherings or minorities. The most frequent cooperation between German scientists and universities is with the Chinese National University of Defence Technology. It also happens that Chinese scientists conceal their true background and European universities only learn about their links to military institutions after the fact.

    The German government and universities point to the freedom of research when faced with this problem. So far, there are no regulations on scientific cooperation with China. However, the government wants to sensitize universities and scientists, according to Correctiv research. It is not yet clear whether the German government’s new China strategy will address research cooperation. nib

    • Research
    • Science
    • Universities

    German government concerned about human rights situation

    The human rights situation in the People’s Republic has deteriorated continuously over the past ten years. But human rights advocates have also been a particular focus of the state security apparatus. This was reported by a representative of the German government in the Committee on Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid of the German Bundestag.

    Chinese security authorities reportedly exert extreme control over lawyers who handle human rights cases. It is estimated that one-third of the 100 human rights lawyers in China have been detained or had their licenses revoked.

    The reprisals take many forms. Lawyers are abducted to unknown locations, court proceedings against them are intransparent, and prison sentences are extended without reason. According to the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, relatives are also being put under pressure.

    The German government regularly raises the issue of imprisonment in bilateral talks. At the same time, the government representative acknowledged that this had only a limited effect. Regarding a planned visit by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, to Xinjiang province, the government representative said that talks on the ground without outside influence would hardly be possible. Nevertheless, the visit is still crucial to publish the report on the human rights situation in China, which has been announced in 2021.

    Bachelet is expected to travel to China next week, Bloomberg reports, citing anonymous sources. She will stay in the country for six to seven days. Bachelet will not have to go into quarantine because China has “special arrangements for high-level visits by foreign dignitaries,” according to a UN spokeswoman. nib

    • Civil Society
    • Human Rights
    • Xinjiang

    Germany to upgrade Taiwan’s WHO status

    The German Bundestag wants to upgrade Taiwan’s status at the WHO. On Thursday, a corresponding motion by the SPD, CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP was adopted. In a resolution, the parliamentary groups had called on the German government to lobby the WHO to allow Taiwan to once again participate as an observer in the World Health Assembly and other WHO bodies and activities. The Bundestag thus openly opposes China, which opposes a diplomatic upgrade of the country, which Beijing considers a secessionist province.

    WHO has already received a similar request from 13 other members lobbying for Taiwan’s participation as an observer at the annual session of the World Health Assembly (WHA), which will be held in Geneva from May 22-28. A WHO spokesman informed that a decision on the matter is expected to be made next Monday, the second day of the meeting.

    Taiwan criticizes WHO

    In a statement, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs complained that WHO had failed to remain neutral and professional and had repeatedly ignored the need and urgency for Taiwan’s participation in WHO meetings and the World Health Assembly.

    From 2009 to 2016, Taiwan was already able to participate in the World Health Assembly as an observer. After the election of President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, China blocked Taiwan’s observer status, invoking the so-called One-China policy, which Germany also adheres to.

    The parliamentary groups in the Bundestag argue that the Covid pandemic demonstrated the urgency of global cooperation. Taiwan was considered particularly successful in fighting the pandemic. ” In the opinion of the German Bundestag, global health issues should not be politicized, but instead should focus exclusively on achieving the global goal of ‘health for all’” the statement said. rtr/jul

    • Health
    • Taiwan
    • WHO

    Yellen plans to lift China tariffs

    US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has voiced her support to the Biden administration for the abolition of some tariffs on Chinese imports, Reuters reports. Some of the levies “aren’t very strategic” and harm US companies and consumers.

    The tariffs introduced under former US President Trump have nothing to do with the problems the US has with China, Yellen said. She was referring to unfair trade practices, national security issues or supply chain vulnerabilities. Within the Biden administration, there are varying opinions on the issue. US Trade Representative Katherine Tai is in favor of retaining the tariffs. Tariffs of up to 25 percent apply, for example, to consumer goods such as bicycles or clothing.

    Yellen also spoke in favor of diversifying global supply chains. She said that dependence on China was too high, as demonstrated once again by the current Covid lockdowns. Among other things, she said, efforts must be made to obtain key minerals such as rare earth elements from other sources to reduce dependence on China. The United States and its European allies should also stand united against questionable economic practices by the Chinese government. nib/rtr

    • Rare earths
    • Raw materials
    • Trade
    • USA

    China wants to expand BRICS

    China wants to expand the emerging economies group BRICS. Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in an online meeting of BRICS countries, “China proposes to start the BRICS expansion process, explore the criteria and procedures for the expansion, and gradually form a consensus.” The group of countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa was formed in 2009. Details on enlargement or potential candidates for membership are not yet known.

    BRICS is not a formal alliance. However, in recent years the group has set up a joint development bank that is also active in other countries. There is also cooperation to avert financial crises. An expansion of the BRICS group could strengthen South-South cooperation and compete with Western alliances and institutions. However, there are also border disputes and other conflicts between BRICS members. nib

    • Geopolitics
    • India
    • Russia
    • Russland
    • Wang Yi

    China’s airlines post heavy losses

    Due to strict Covid entry restrictions, China’s aviation industry suffered heavy losses last year. The Chinese aviation regulator estimates the losses in 2021 at the equivalent of almost €12 billion (¥84 billion), according to a Bloomberg report. The losses were mainly attributable to international air traffic, which came to a near standstill. In contrast, domestic air traffic has reportedly returned to pre-pandemic levels.

    Air China reported a loss of the equivalent of €2.3 billion (¥16.6 billion) in 2021, according to a report by China’s Global Times, while China Southern Airlines posted a loss of €1.7 billion (¥12 billion). China Eastern Airlines reported similar figures.

    Travelers entering China are still subject to a mandatory three-week quarantine. Travelers from many countries are required to present two negative PCR tests, 48 and 24 hours before departure, and a negative rapid test result no more than 12 hours old at the time of departure. In addition, the rule still applies that flight routes will be suspended if multiple passengers on an aircraft test positive for Coronavirus after arrival in China from abroad.

    According to the Global Times, China’s Civil Aviation Administration (CAAC) considers propping up airlines through subsidies. However, this might prove to be expensive: The potential cost is estimated at €700 million (¥5 billion), according to the report. jul

    • Aviation
    • Coronavirus
    • Health
    • Industry

    Profile

    Haining (Helen) Feng – jack of all trades in the music scene

    Haining (Helen) Feng

    The titles that Haining Feng has received could hardly be more prestigious. She has been called the “pop ambassador of the People’s Republic”. In Western media, she is repeatedly presented as the “Blondie of China,” and she is even often referred to as the “Beijing’s Queen of Rock”. Feng herself, smiling modestly, on the other hand, hangs her rank a bit lower: “A few acquaintances told me that I have now achieved official ancestor status – but probably not for more than ten people. I guess that’s just what happens when you start playing music and manage to stick with it long enough.”

    For two decades now, she has been a defining figure in the Chinese alternative scene. Born in Beijing and raised in the US, she was drawn back to the People’s Republic in the early 2000s when she was recruited by MTV China for a job as a host. There she encountered a generation of young Chinese whose subcultural currents had to make do without a relevant music scene, since rebellious genres like rock’n’roll were still on the censorship list until recently.

    Beginnings at MTV China

    In 2004, she founded the indie-pop band Ziyo and was promptly signed by Warner Music. Soon after, parallel to Ziyo, she formed a rock group, Pet Conspiracy, which also achieved a breakthrough and caused a sensation in the West on a European tour in 2008. Feng endures this double burden for a few years, but ultimately both bands have to break up for personal reasons. But ever since, she has never been able to keep her feet still for long. Feng immediately launches her next project, Nova Heart, in 2010, for which she is still in the spotlight as a singer and producer – and not, as was the case not long ago, as Helen Feng, but rather under her real name, Haining Feng. She called herself Helen when she was younger to be closer to her Western audience. Today, however, she feels that her name change was nothing more than a result of internalized racism that she was instilled with as a child.

    Alongside her music career, she still finds the time to run the record label Fake Music Media. The motivation for this stems from the desire to become independent herself and to be able to support other bands in the Chinese-Western exchange. As if her organizational talent was not already sufficiently proven, she also manages something of a private sanctuary. An apartment in Berlin where artist friends such as the photographer Ren Hang, who died in 2017, writer Mian Mian or the music producer Rodion can retreat during important creative phases – “all in the spirit of Berlin, right”?

    Musician, record label manager

    When speaking, Haining Feng sets the same breakneck pace as her CV is colorful. In one breath, she contrasts her parents’ youth, exiled to Mongolia by Mao, with the burgeoning skate culture she encountered during her time at MTV, only to return to how her family more or less co-founded the Communist Party but was then cast out in the wake of the Cultural Revolution. She’s fed up with constantly being asked the same questions in the West about censorship and artistic freedom, but no doubt sees herself as a critical voice: “I’m not trying to poke the dragon, but like to give it a thorough massage now and then”. The next massage dates are scheduled for the summer, when she will once again electrify the stages of China with Nova Heart. Julius Schwarzwälder

    Executive Moves

    Sun Haiyan is the new Chinese ambassador to Singapore. Previously, she worked for the International Liaison Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party since 1997. The department’s job is to maintain relations with parties from other countries. Sun succeeds Hong Xiaoyong, who was China’s ambassador to Singapore for four years.

    Dessert

    Don’t wriggle! In celebration of the crayfish season, the spotlight is on crayfish in Xuyi County in East China’s Jiangsu Province. They’re one of the region’s most famous specialties. They look good on the plate – and in front of the camera, too.

    China.Table editorial office

    CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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