New reports about the appalling situation in the camps in Xinjiang are constantly surfacing. Yesterday, an international media network published new, explosive material. It includes thousands of prisoner photos and authentic footage from the prisons, as well as details of shoot orders and torture tools. The leak also proves: The operation of these camps is directed from Beijing and not an idea of local cadres, writes Marcel Grzanna.
This was followed by an outcry from concerned German politicians: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock demanded that China clarify these “most severe human rights violations”. Germany’s Minister of Finance Christian Lindner urged to address the CCP more directly on human rights violations.
But is that enough? While the former Merkel governments boasted about seriously “addressing” the problems behind the scenes, construction of these camps was just getting started at the time. For all we know, an entire population group is now under total surveillance in Xinjiang, with large numbers forced into camps for re-education. The Uyghurs are no longer allowed to be Uyghurs, that is the idea of the leaders in Beijing. The admonishing words of Western politicians have not stopped them from putting their plans into motion.
Apart from diplomacy, there are other efforts to enforce human rights. But even the planned supply chain laws will have little effect. Chinese solar companies have begun to move their production to regions outside Xinjiang. This would make exports and international supply chains seem spotless. However, experts say that solar manufacturers will continue to rely on primary products from Xinjiang for the domestic market, which are reportedly manufactured by Uyghur forced laborers.
The German economy’s great dependence on China is “particularly depressing” against the backdrop of human rights violations in Xinjiang, says Christian Lindner. What is at least equally depressing is how late German policymakers have begun to rethink their China position. An early reduction of dependence might have dampened some DAX company’s billion-dollar profits in the short term. But in the long term, it would have prevented some of the dependency that has now become an economic and geopolitical burden from arising in the first place.
To mark the visit of UN Human Rights Commissioner Michelle Bachelet, the Chinese hosts came up with a particularly subtle gift. Foreign Minister Wang Yi presented Bachelet with an English copy of Head of State Xi Jinping’s “Respecting and Protecting Human Rights” – a collection of speeches and essays by the Party leader. The media-staged handover, which the foreign office boldly broadcast to the world via social media, received a highly cynical footnote just a few hours later.
Bachelet barely had a chance to browse through the book when a consortium of 14 international media from 11 countries, including the German news magazine Der Spiegel and Bayerischer Rundfunk, published the results of weeks of research dubbed the Xinjiang Police Files. Thousands of photos, confidential documents and extensive data sets provide new evidence of the brutal actions of Chinese authorities against Muslim Uyghurs in the autonomous region of Xinjiang.
The files shed light on the criminalization and torture of Uyghurs in internment camps. They expose the Chinese portrayal of these camps as training centers where people would voluntarily attend as false. Photographs show detainees walking handcuffed and shackled through the corridors of a camp. In addition, speeches by high-ranking politicians from the State Council and the province, classified as confidential, reveal the direct involvement of China’s closest leadership circle in the construction of a system of re-education enforced by force of arms and persistent violations of human rights.
The documents, which hackers stole from local police servers in Xinjiang, were first leaked to the German anthropologist Adrian Zenz. Zenz already revealed the extent of the alleged anti-terror campaign with his “innovative pioneering work” in the past. The media involved subsequently examined the authenticity of the documents in detail.
“I have no reason to doubt that the documents are authentic. It is very unlikely that they are a so-called deep fake, given their volume,” says sinologist Bjoern Alpermann of the University of Wuerzburg, who is conducting his own research on the activities in Xinjiang. Alpermann considers the files an important building block for assessing the events in Xinjiang. They corroborate numerous eyewitness accounts from former detainees.
The transcripts of speeches made by the Minister of State Security, Zhao Kezhi, in 2018, and former Party Secretary in Xinjiang, Chen Quanguo, in 2017, are particularly relevant. They verifiably prove the direct knowledge and involvement of the Party leadership surrounding Xi Jinping in the significant expansion of holding facilities to a large capacity. Several million people could potentially be detained in the camps.
It also shows that the rule of law does not matter when it comes to imprisonment. For example, Zhao said that for some, five years of prison would not be enough for re-education. “As soon as they are released, problems arise. This is the reality of Xinjiang.” Chen, for his part, urged camp guards to make use of firearms if anyone tried to escape.
Accordingly, the punishments imposed on Uyghurs are extensive, as evidenced by the Police Files. Sentences of well over ten years have been handed down for suspicions that do not even amount to an actual crime, such as reading religious literature, wearing a beard, or preaching Muslim beliefs. Legally convicted Uyghurs or members of other Muslim minorities, however, are housed in regular correctional facilities, not in the internment camps.
Since prison sentences are based primarily on the mistrust and arbitrariness of Chinese security forces (China.Table reported), the demand for camps and prison cells significantly exceeded the existing capacity in some cases. Minister Zhao also brought up this point in his speech. He said it was thanks to Xi Jinping’s “important instructions” that, with proper funding, new facilities could be built or existing ones expanded. “The documents prove a direct link to the Politburo Standing Committee and the Party chief. Under these circumstances, a denial from the Chinese side is not credible,” says sinologist Alpermann.
At his meeting with UN Commissioner Bachelet, Foreign Minister Wang had still expressed the hope that the visit of the human rights envoy could help to expose alleged “misinformation” about Xinjiang as such. He accused “foreign forces” of a “smear campaign” against his government. The timing of the publication of the Xinjiang Police Files and Bachelet’s visit to China is thus probably not entirely coincidental. It reduces the power of Chinese propaganda, which will try to instrumentalize the UN commissioner’s trip as evidence of the alleged misinformation.
Initial reactions to the new evidence suggest that China will be forced to adjust its strategy of denial now. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) demanded clarification from China, as did Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP), who also demanded via Twitter to not be soft on China over economic interests.
Green MEP Reinhard Buetikofer suggested further sanctions against the People’s Republic, as did Margarete Bause, the former human rights spokeswoman for the Green Party’s parliamentary group in the German Bundestag. “What is needed now are further EU sanctions against those responsible for these crimes and a fundamental change of course in Germany’s China policy,” Bause said. Michael Brand, the human rights policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, found strong words: “The regime in China has finally lost face. If we just stand by and watch, we will be complicit in the slow extinction of a people. Clear signals are needed, and these are sanctions.”
The winner of the International Nuremberg Human Rights Award, Sayragul Sauytbay, also appealed to the international community with calls for sanctions. “Along with eyewitness accounts, this material is a second important source of evidence. They are sufficient to prove the CCP’s crimes against humanity. If the international community really wants to stop this genocide, this is the catalyst for their effective action,” she told China.Table. She said she was convinced that the Xinjiang Police Files will influence policy decisions.
Last week, the C919 large civil aircraft developed by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) passed an important manned flight test. During the three-hour flight, all planned tasks were performed. The aircraft was “fully capable” and landed safely, state media wrote.
The C919 made its maiden voyage in March 2017. Until now, however, the aircraft has not yet been classified by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) as perfectly airworthy. Following the latest test flight certification this goal is now said to be within reach. Six C919s have been built so far and are now entering the final test phase.
According to Wu Yongliang, Comac’s Deputy General Manager, the aircraft could be shipped to customers as early as this year. The company reports that it has already received 815 orders. The majority of them come from China.
In March 2021, China Eastern had placed the world’s first order for the purchase of five C919s to operate on several domestic routes, including Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. But there is also interest from abroad. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary had already announced ten years ago that he was interested in working with Comac. Hardly any aviation expert doubts that the passenger aircraft will become a serious contender to Airbus and Boeing. Beijing will do everything necessary to lift the domestic company into the market.
China has high hopes for its first self-developed commercial aircraft, which has 158 to 168 seats and can fly 4,075 kilometers. But development towards market readiness, which began back in 2008, remains slow. The first planes were scheduled to be ready for delivery in 2016, then in 2021. And it has now been revealed that the aircraft will cost twice as much as originally planned.
A filing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Tuesday indicates that each jet will be offered for a price of ¥653 million (US$99 million) list price. That puts the C919, which was actually announced as a low-cost alternative, almost in the same ballpark as the Airbus A320neo, with a list price of $111 million, and the Boeing 737 Max, with a list price of $117 million.
Yet, Comac’s main goal was to break the international duopoly of Airbus and Boeing with the price. However, it is far too early to compare the actual market price of the C919 with their competitors. Discounts and favorable financing can still change the real purchase price. The moment of truth will come above all when the first second-hand aircraft are traded.
What is clear, however, is that since the Comac aircraft is no more advanced than its competitors, and since Comac is not yet an established brand, the machine must be marketed at a competitive price. This is especially true for success on the international market. In China proper, the state has the power to decree: Chinese buy Chinese. Just as was done recently with computers (China.Table reported). Since the majority of the country’s airlines are state-owned, Beijing has considerable influence here.
However, there are limits to the price cuts, as the Chinese aircraft is still heavily dependent on foreign suppliers. The engines, for example, are supplied by the French-American manufacturer CFM. According to a report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, as many as 60 percent of the C919’s main suppliers are American companies such as General Electric and Honeywell.
Other important suppliers are Liebherr-Aerospace and the Austrian manufacturer FACC. It has been owned by the Chinese aircraft manufacturer Xi’an Aircraft Industrial Corporation (XAC) since 2009 and produces lightweight plastic components. Even Boeing and Airbus supply parts.
These international ties make Comac vulnerable to sanctions. According to a report by the South China Morning Post, Trump’s tightened export controls on Chinese companies have contributed massively to development delays.
China is the world’s largest aircraft market. Experts estimate that the People’s Republic will require 4,300 new aircraft worth $480 billion over the next two decades. Initially, this sounds like good news for Airbus and Boeing. In spring 2018, Beijing also decided to drop the limit on foreign participation in the construction of aircraft in China. A smart move. China thus lures foreign manufacturers even deeper into its market and makes them even more dependent.
Airbus shipped 142 new aircraft to China in 2021 alone. The day Beijing will be able to replace Boeing and Airbus aircraft in China in large numbers with the C919, the tables will turn. Perhaps Boeing and Airbus will still have record sales then because the Chinese market is growing so rapidly. But their market shares and margins will shrink.
The employees in Hamburg will also feel this. Alongside Toulouse, this is where the most important Airbus site in Europe is located. What the new world looks like for the aviation industry was already evident in mid-May: China Eastern announced plans to raise new capital to buy aircraft with a list price of around $4.38 billion. The shopping list includes four Comac C919s, 24 Comac ARJ21-700 regional jets, six Airbus A350-900s and only four Boeing 787-9s. Domestic orders therefore already far outweigh domestic orders by a large margin.
Sinolytics is a European consulting and analysis company specializing in China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and concrete business activities in the People’s Republic.
Bonny Lin wants to save lives. After graduating from high school, the US American had actually planned to become a doctor. Instead, she became a China analyst – and she does not see any contradiction here: “As a doctor, you can save two to three lives a day. But even small policy changes can change the lives of thousands of people,” she told China.Table.
Lin heads the China Power Project, a globally renowned China research institute that aims to help understand China’s technological, cultural, economic, military and social power. The project is based at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, a leading US think tank. Lin tirelessly advocates a fact- and data-driven view of China. This is what her ethical standards demand, on which she bases her work on.
How the quality of knowledge can actually save or endanger lives is currently shown by the war in Ukraine. In many instances, Western observers of Russia had misjudged the Kremlin’s intentions. Policymakers in Europe and the USA were in no way prepared for an attack of this magnitude.
An oversimplified image of China also leads to a lack of understanding in academia and incompetence in politics, Lin says. One example: After Russia invaded Ukraine, many have begun to count the days until China forcibly conquers Taiwan. For Lin, an undifferentiated conclusion. After all, China’s Taiwan policy initially depends only on the situation on the ground. And there is currently no constellation that would simplify an invasion.
Nevertheless, Lin emphasizes that China is closely following the war in Ukraine and draws its own conclusions. Close observation of the situation in Taiwan would also do foreign policymakers in Western capitals good. That, too, is part of a realistic grasp of the situation. “We must not underestimate the resilience of the Taiwanese and should do more for their defense and training,” Lin believes.
Lin is from Beverly Hills – but from a town of that name in the US state of Michigan in the north of the USA, not from the vastly more famous city in California. China already played a role in her life early on: The American car industry in the region exported a lot to China – and her father helped in all that. However, with Michigan’s economic decline, the connections to the Chinese market also disappeared.
Lin learned the craft of being a China observer from the ground up. After graduating and earning her doctorate, she first made a name for herself at the Rand Corporation, a think tank of the US Department of Defense. Back then, her area of expertise was already in geostrategies around China and Taiwan.
Because of China’s more aggressive foreign policy course under Xi Jinping, Lin’s expertise is more in demand than ever. She gathers and filters information and uses it to produce analyses and forecasts. Lin believes: If you want to anticipate the country’s actions, you have to put yourself in China’s position. It’s an approach that stems from the creation of war scenarios and, together with a keen understanding of the country’s history and current data, often yields astonishingly accurate insights.
Regarding Ukraine, Lin has already formed a clear opinion: “China did not want this war, but could not prevent it either. Now China is trying to cut its own costs.” However, Beijing would have to choose between the West and Russia in the medium term, whether it wants to or not. The Chinese are definitely afraid of Western sanctions. And China is learning from Russia’s example that power alone is not enough to be a superpower. For that, not only strength is needed, but also respect, legitimacy and recognition. Both internally and externally. Jonathan Lehrer
The air forces of China and Russia held a joint air patrol over the Sea of Japan, East China Sea and the Western Pacific on Tuesday. Long-range bombers were also deployed. This is the first joint military exercise since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Such patrols have also been held in the past three years, but later into the year.
New reports about the appalling situation in the camps in Xinjiang are constantly surfacing. Yesterday, an international media network published new, explosive material. It includes thousands of prisoner photos and authentic footage from the prisons, as well as details of shoot orders and torture tools. The leak also proves: The operation of these camps is directed from Beijing and not an idea of local cadres, writes Marcel Grzanna.
This was followed by an outcry from concerned German politicians: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock demanded that China clarify these “most severe human rights violations”. Germany’s Minister of Finance Christian Lindner urged to address the CCP more directly on human rights violations.
But is that enough? While the former Merkel governments boasted about seriously “addressing” the problems behind the scenes, construction of these camps was just getting started at the time. For all we know, an entire population group is now under total surveillance in Xinjiang, with large numbers forced into camps for re-education. The Uyghurs are no longer allowed to be Uyghurs, that is the idea of the leaders in Beijing. The admonishing words of Western politicians have not stopped them from putting their plans into motion.
Apart from diplomacy, there are other efforts to enforce human rights. But even the planned supply chain laws will have little effect. Chinese solar companies have begun to move their production to regions outside Xinjiang. This would make exports and international supply chains seem spotless. However, experts say that solar manufacturers will continue to rely on primary products from Xinjiang for the domestic market, which are reportedly manufactured by Uyghur forced laborers.
The German economy’s great dependence on China is “particularly depressing” against the backdrop of human rights violations in Xinjiang, says Christian Lindner. What is at least equally depressing is how late German policymakers have begun to rethink their China position. An early reduction of dependence might have dampened some DAX company’s billion-dollar profits in the short term. But in the long term, it would have prevented some of the dependency that has now become an economic and geopolitical burden from arising in the first place.
To mark the visit of UN Human Rights Commissioner Michelle Bachelet, the Chinese hosts came up with a particularly subtle gift. Foreign Minister Wang Yi presented Bachelet with an English copy of Head of State Xi Jinping’s “Respecting and Protecting Human Rights” – a collection of speeches and essays by the Party leader. The media-staged handover, which the foreign office boldly broadcast to the world via social media, received a highly cynical footnote just a few hours later.
Bachelet barely had a chance to browse through the book when a consortium of 14 international media from 11 countries, including the German news magazine Der Spiegel and Bayerischer Rundfunk, published the results of weeks of research dubbed the Xinjiang Police Files. Thousands of photos, confidential documents and extensive data sets provide new evidence of the brutal actions of Chinese authorities against Muslim Uyghurs in the autonomous region of Xinjiang.
The files shed light on the criminalization and torture of Uyghurs in internment camps. They expose the Chinese portrayal of these camps as training centers where people would voluntarily attend as false. Photographs show detainees walking handcuffed and shackled through the corridors of a camp. In addition, speeches by high-ranking politicians from the State Council and the province, classified as confidential, reveal the direct involvement of China’s closest leadership circle in the construction of a system of re-education enforced by force of arms and persistent violations of human rights.
The documents, which hackers stole from local police servers in Xinjiang, were first leaked to the German anthropologist Adrian Zenz. Zenz already revealed the extent of the alleged anti-terror campaign with his “innovative pioneering work” in the past. The media involved subsequently examined the authenticity of the documents in detail.
“I have no reason to doubt that the documents are authentic. It is very unlikely that they are a so-called deep fake, given their volume,” says sinologist Bjoern Alpermann of the University of Wuerzburg, who is conducting his own research on the activities in Xinjiang. Alpermann considers the files an important building block for assessing the events in Xinjiang. They corroborate numerous eyewitness accounts from former detainees.
The transcripts of speeches made by the Minister of State Security, Zhao Kezhi, in 2018, and former Party Secretary in Xinjiang, Chen Quanguo, in 2017, are particularly relevant. They verifiably prove the direct knowledge and involvement of the Party leadership surrounding Xi Jinping in the significant expansion of holding facilities to a large capacity. Several million people could potentially be detained in the camps.
It also shows that the rule of law does not matter when it comes to imprisonment. For example, Zhao said that for some, five years of prison would not be enough for re-education. “As soon as they are released, problems arise. This is the reality of Xinjiang.” Chen, for his part, urged camp guards to make use of firearms if anyone tried to escape.
Accordingly, the punishments imposed on Uyghurs are extensive, as evidenced by the Police Files. Sentences of well over ten years have been handed down for suspicions that do not even amount to an actual crime, such as reading religious literature, wearing a beard, or preaching Muslim beliefs. Legally convicted Uyghurs or members of other Muslim minorities, however, are housed in regular correctional facilities, not in the internment camps.
Since prison sentences are based primarily on the mistrust and arbitrariness of Chinese security forces (China.Table reported), the demand for camps and prison cells significantly exceeded the existing capacity in some cases. Minister Zhao also brought up this point in his speech. He said it was thanks to Xi Jinping’s “important instructions” that, with proper funding, new facilities could be built or existing ones expanded. “The documents prove a direct link to the Politburo Standing Committee and the Party chief. Under these circumstances, a denial from the Chinese side is not credible,” says sinologist Alpermann.
At his meeting with UN Commissioner Bachelet, Foreign Minister Wang had still expressed the hope that the visit of the human rights envoy could help to expose alleged “misinformation” about Xinjiang as such. He accused “foreign forces” of a “smear campaign” against his government. The timing of the publication of the Xinjiang Police Files and Bachelet’s visit to China is thus probably not entirely coincidental. It reduces the power of Chinese propaganda, which will try to instrumentalize the UN commissioner’s trip as evidence of the alleged misinformation.
Initial reactions to the new evidence suggest that China will be forced to adjust its strategy of denial now. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) demanded clarification from China, as did Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP), who also demanded via Twitter to not be soft on China over economic interests.
Green MEP Reinhard Buetikofer suggested further sanctions against the People’s Republic, as did Margarete Bause, the former human rights spokeswoman for the Green Party’s parliamentary group in the German Bundestag. “What is needed now are further EU sanctions against those responsible for these crimes and a fundamental change of course in Germany’s China policy,” Bause said. Michael Brand, the human rights policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, found strong words: “The regime in China has finally lost face. If we just stand by and watch, we will be complicit in the slow extinction of a people. Clear signals are needed, and these are sanctions.”
The winner of the International Nuremberg Human Rights Award, Sayragul Sauytbay, also appealed to the international community with calls for sanctions. “Along with eyewitness accounts, this material is a second important source of evidence. They are sufficient to prove the CCP’s crimes against humanity. If the international community really wants to stop this genocide, this is the catalyst for their effective action,” she told China.Table. She said she was convinced that the Xinjiang Police Files will influence policy decisions.
Last week, the C919 large civil aircraft developed by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) passed an important manned flight test. During the three-hour flight, all planned tasks were performed. The aircraft was “fully capable” and landed safely, state media wrote.
The C919 made its maiden voyage in March 2017. Until now, however, the aircraft has not yet been classified by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) as perfectly airworthy. Following the latest test flight certification this goal is now said to be within reach. Six C919s have been built so far and are now entering the final test phase.
According to Wu Yongliang, Comac’s Deputy General Manager, the aircraft could be shipped to customers as early as this year. The company reports that it has already received 815 orders. The majority of them come from China.
In March 2021, China Eastern had placed the world’s first order for the purchase of five C919s to operate on several domestic routes, including Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. But there is also interest from abroad. Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary had already announced ten years ago that he was interested in working with Comac. Hardly any aviation expert doubts that the passenger aircraft will become a serious contender to Airbus and Boeing. Beijing will do everything necessary to lift the domestic company into the market.
China has high hopes for its first self-developed commercial aircraft, which has 158 to 168 seats and can fly 4,075 kilometers. But development towards market readiness, which began back in 2008, remains slow. The first planes were scheduled to be ready for delivery in 2016, then in 2021. And it has now been revealed that the aircraft will cost twice as much as originally planned.
A filing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Tuesday indicates that each jet will be offered for a price of ¥653 million (US$99 million) list price. That puts the C919, which was actually announced as a low-cost alternative, almost in the same ballpark as the Airbus A320neo, with a list price of $111 million, and the Boeing 737 Max, with a list price of $117 million.
Yet, Comac’s main goal was to break the international duopoly of Airbus and Boeing with the price. However, it is far too early to compare the actual market price of the C919 with their competitors. Discounts and favorable financing can still change the real purchase price. The moment of truth will come above all when the first second-hand aircraft are traded.
What is clear, however, is that since the Comac aircraft is no more advanced than its competitors, and since Comac is not yet an established brand, the machine must be marketed at a competitive price. This is especially true for success on the international market. In China proper, the state has the power to decree: Chinese buy Chinese. Just as was done recently with computers (China.Table reported). Since the majority of the country’s airlines are state-owned, Beijing has considerable influence here.
However, there are limits to the price cuts, as the Chinese aircraft is still heavily dependent on foreign suppliers. The engines, for example, are supplied by the French-American manufacturer CFM. According to a report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, as many as 60 percent of the C919’s main suppliers are American companies such as General Electric and Honeywell.
Other important suppliers are Liebherr-Aerospace and the Austrian manufacturer FACC. It has been owned by the Chinese aircraft manufacturer Xi’an Aircraft Industrial Corporation (XAC) since 2009 and produces lightweight plastic components. Even Boeing and Airbus supply parts.
These international ties make Comac vulnerable to sanctions. According to a report by the South China Morning Post, Trump’s tightened export controls on Chinese companies have contributed massively to development delays.
China is the world’s largest aircraft market. Experts estimate that the People’s Republic will require 4,300 new aircraft worth $480 billion over the next two decades. Initially, this sounds like good news for Airbus and Boeing. In spring 2018, Beijing also decided to drop the limit on foreign participation in the construction of aircraft in China. A smart move. China thus lures foreign manufacturers even deeper into its market and makes them even more dependent.
Airbus shipped 142 new aircraft to China in 2021 alone. The day Beijing will be able to replace Boeing and Airbus aircraft in China in large numbers with the C919, the tables will turn. Perhaps Boeing and Airbus will still have record sales then because the Chinese market is growing so rapidly. But their market shares and margins will shrink.
The employees in Hamburg will also feel this. Alongside Toulouse, this is where the most important Airbus site in Europe is located. What the new world looks like for the aviation industry was already evident in mid-May: China Eastern announced plans to raise new capital to buy aircraft with a list price of around $4.38 billion. The shopping list includes four Comac C919s, 24 Comac ARJ21-700 regional jets, six Airbus A350-900s and only four Boeing 787-9s. Domestic orders therefore already far outweigh domestic orders by a large margin.
Sinolytics is a European consulting and analysis company specializing in China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and concrete business activities in the People’s Republic.
Bonny Lin wants to save lives. After graduating from high school, the US American had actually planned to become a doctor. Instead, she became a China analyst – and she does not see any contradiction here: “As a doctor, you can save two to three lives a day. But even small policy changes can change the lives of thousands of people,” she told China.Table.
Lin heads the China Power Project, a globally renowned China research institute that aims to help understand China’s technological, cultural, economic, military and social power. The project is based at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, a leading US think tank. Lin tirelessly advocates a fact- and data-driven view of China. This is what her ethical standards demand, on which she bases her work on.
How the quality of knowledge can actually save or endanger lives is currently shown by the war in Ukraine. In many instances, Western observers of Russia had misjudged the Kremlin’s intentions. Policymakers in Europe and the USA were in no way prepared for an attack of this magnitude.
An oversimplified image of China also leads to a lack of understanding in academia and incompetence in politics, Lin says. One example: After Russia invaded Ukraine, many have begun to count the days until China forcibly conquers Taiwan. For Lin, an undifferentiated conclusion. After all, China’s Taiwan policy initially depends only on the situation on the ground. And there is currently no constellation that would simplify an invasion.
Nevertheless, Lin emphasizes that China is closely following the war in Ukraine and draws its own conclusions. Close observation of the situation in Taiwan would also do foreign policymakers in Western capitals good. That, too, is part of a realistic grasp of the situation. “We must not underestimate the resilience of the Taiwanese and should do more for their defense and training,” Lin believes.
Lin is from Beverly Hills – but from a town of that name in the US state of Michigan in the north of the USA, not from the vastly more famous city in California. China already played a role in her life early on: The American car industry in the region exported a lot to China – and her father helped in all that. However, with Michigan’s economic decline, the connections to the Chinese market also disappeared.
Lin learned the craft of being a China observer from the ground up. After graduating and earning her doctorate, she first made a name for herself at the Rand Corporation, a think tank of the US Department of Defense. Back then, her area of expertise was already in geostrategies around China and Taiwan.
Because of China’s more aggressive foreign policy course under Xi Jinping, Lin’s expertise is more in demand than ever. She gathers and filters information and uses it to produce analyses and forecasts. Lin believes: If you want to anticipate the country’s actions, you have to put yourself in China’s position. It’s an approach that stems from the creation of war scenarios and, together with a keen understanding of the country’s history and current data, often yields astonishingly accurate insights.
Regarding Ukraine, Lin has already formed a clear opinion: “China did not want this war, but could not prevent it either. Now China is trying to cut its own costs.” However, Beijing would have to choose between the West and Russia in the medium term, whether it wants to or not. The Chinese are definitely afraid of Western sanctions. And China is learning from Russia’s example that power alone is not enough to be a superpower. For that, not only strength is needed, but also respect, legitimacy and recognition. Both internally and externally. Jonathan Lehrer
The air forces of China and Russia held a joint air patrol over the Sea of Japan, East China Sea and the Western Pacific on Tuesday. Long-range bombers were also deployed. This is the first joint military exercise since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Such patrols have also been held in the past three years, but later into the year.
