Table.Briefing: China

Who will succeed Li Keqiang? + China’s lessons from sanctions

  • Premier Li announces resignation
  • What has Beijing learned from sanctions on Russia?
  • Minister: Moscow counts on Chinese financial aid
  • Covid infections rising drastically
  • Study: More cancer diagnoses
  • USA: Ban on maps that show Taiwan as part of China?
  • Profile: Renjie Qian – data analyst and auto expert
  • So To Speak: The unpleasant ‘fashion clash’
Dear reader,

It was an announcement that was both surprising and unsurprising. On Friday at the conclusion of the National People’s Congress, China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced his resignation from office at the end of the year. This is actually normal in the People’s Republic. Previously, two five-year terms in office were the rule for both the prime minister and the president.

But not with Xi Jinping. The state and party leader plans to be reelected for another term and can now choose a suitable prime minister. Frank Sieren takes a look at the possible successors to Li Keqiang – should Xi follow past appointment patterns. But a surprise is always possible with him.

Regardless of who becomes the next premier in Xi’s shadow, he will also face a continuing question: Taiwan’s fate has returned to the spotlight in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Does the West’s reaction to Putin’s war tend to deter political leaders in Beijing? Or do they even feel encouraged by Russia’s invasion to attack Taiwan?

We have already looked at this topic from different angles here at China.Table. This time, the question is how to immunize the country against possible sanctions by the West. Beijing could draw conclusions from the sanctions against Russia and bolster its own resilience to ensure that trade restrictions following a potential attack on Taiwan would be less effective. China’s desire to become independent of foreign expertise in a growing number of economic sectors could receive a huge boost, writes Marcel Grzanna.

Your
Nico Beckert
Image of Nico  Beckert

Feature

Li Keqiang resigns – who will step into Xi’s shadow?

Premier Li Keqiang will retire from office in 2023.

For many decades, the authoritarian political system of the People’s Republic of China had a political virtue. After two terms, that is, every ten years, both the president and his prime minister had to step down along with their teams, and two new politicians took over. “This is the last year I will be premier,” Li Keqiang confirmed on Friday. He is stepping down from his post after two terms. President Xi Jinping, on the other hand, intends to take a different path.

Typically, the successor to the president is announced after about five years. From then on, the successor keeps a close eye on the incumbent president. The incumbent’s remaining time in office should not be used to burn all bridges. Although the top political leadership was not elected by the citizens of the People’s Republic, but rather selected by the Communist Party, there was at least a new impetus at least every five years and a major one every ten years.

This sensible system was already undermined by head of state Xi back in 2018. He is now able to rule for as long as the party, which he heads, lets him. Long terms of office have advantages and disadvantages. Among Western democracies, Germany is one country whose voters chose to keep Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel (both 16 years) in office for a long time. Xi has only ten years under his belt. Especially in such a large country, there are good reasons for longer office terms to enact major reforms. For example, Xi was and is much more effective than his predecessors in the fight against corruption.

Loyalty over balance

The disadvantages, however, weigh greater. Above all, Xi begins to take on more and more autocratic traits. In the prime minister’s annual report to the National People’s Congress, the incumbent president was usually included in the ranks of his predecessors in honor of their previous accomplishments. This year, only Xi was mentioned.

This is so far from the Chinese mindset, which is much more characterized by the idea of balancing complex networks and history than the West. In Chinese culture, balance is considered a higher art, and better politics than the powerful, all-sweeping solo act. Xi seems to tend more toward the latter. This may also be the case for the selection of the new prime minister.

There is already a lot of public speculation about who might be the successor. However, things tend to turn out differently than expected. There are many indications that the new prime minister will be a loyal follower of Xi rather than a man or woman who would see himself or herself as a corrective to the president. President Xi is expected to deliberate on Li’s successor in the fall. The head of state is entitled to propose a candidate for the premier post.

Is Xi following the usual selection procedures?

Generally, a politician who became prime minister was already a simple member of the Politburo beforehand. Of the 25 Politburo members, seven already belong to the Standing Committee and are thus overqualified for new impulses. That leaves 18, nine of whom have already reached the retirement age of 68. Xi will turn 68 in June, leaving nine candidates for the post of premier, that is if Xi sticks to the traditional selection procedures. Of these nine, six have already reached an age where they will not be able to govern for the next ten years without passing the retirement age.

This leaves three candidates:

  • Chen Min’er (born 1960), currently Party Secretary of Chongqing, the world’s largest city.
  • Ding Xuexiang (born 1962), Executive Deputy Director of the General Office.
  • Hu Chunhua (born 1963), Vice Premier, but is considered more of a confidant of Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, a politician from the old days.

Two candidates stand out as successors

That leaves Chen and Ding. Chen spent most of his career in the booming province of Zhejiang, south of Shanghai. But he also served as Party Secretary in Guizhou province, which is still very poor. Ding is Xi’s most important figure in the party. He already worked for him in Shanghai and then followed him to Beijing.

So it could be one of the two. If Xi doesn’t have a surprise in store. And he certainly has the power to do so. Or to put it another way: The appointment of the new prime minister will, above all, demonstrate how powerful Xi Jinping is – and that, in turn, speaks for a surprising appointment that no one saw coming.

  • Chinese Communist Party
  • Li Keqiang
  • National People’s Congress
  • Xi Jinping

Sanctions against Russia provide important insights

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has severely damaged the credibility of autocratic regimes. Along with the Russian government, the Chinese government will probably also have to pay a price. Those in the political West who were firmly confident of Vladimir Putin’s integrity in the past will now look to Beijing with much more unease and mistrust. Voices in the West that attempt to convey China’s good intentions will have a harder time being heard.

Last week’s National People’s Congress has proven why opposition is likely to rise in the future. China’s authoritarian ruling cadres failed to condemn Russia’s war of aggression on its biggest political stage. They are only tentatively joining in the sanctions against Moscow anyway. Instead, China’s media paint a picture of the war that is supposed to create sympathy for Russia among the Chinese population.

China is trying to position itself as a mediator and appeasing power in the crisis. But how seriously should the country be taken? Observers had the feeling that the deaths in Europe were of no concern to China. But that cannot be further from the truth.

Dual Circulation may be part of the strategy

Putin’s war in Ukraine is certainly not to the benefit of the Chinese government, which is openly threatening Taiwan with forced annexation. Because as a result, Taiwan’s allies are now likely to prepare just as meticulously for a possible Chinese invasion of the island as the People’s Republic has been doing for years.

At the same time, Beijing probably has a more specific idea of when it can consider itself in a position to annex Taiwan. On the one hand, when the armed forces of the People’s Republic are capable of doing so. Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng believes an invasion by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to be possible in 2025. On the other hand, China is working on the economic foundations that would secure an invasion.

Beijing is carefully studying Western sanctions against Russia to be ready with appropriate countermeasures. “China will closely monitor Western sanctions against Russia and meticulously examine how Moscow deals with them,” says political scientist Li Mingjiang of the Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore. “From this, the government wants to draw its conclusions on how to deal with such sanctions itself, which would result from a Chinese military campaign against Taiwan.”

Li believes that the highly heralded dual circulation policy may already be part of Beijing’s strategy for dealing with such a scenario. Dual Circulation is intended to strengthen China’s domestic circular flow of income and reduce its dependence on exports. This is one of the main goals of the next Five-Year Plan (China.Table reported).

Xi’s environment raises the risk of miscalculation

Researcher Li does not believe that Russia’s example “will significantly change China’s determination to reunify.” China is aware of its greater resilience, even if sanctions against Russia “will cause Beijing to be more cautious before using violent means against Taiwan.”

Meanwhile, Andreas Fulda of the University of Nottingham believes that the Ukraine crisis made a Chinese invasion of Taiwan more likely. “With the joint statement of February 4, 2022, Xi has pledged political support to Putin for his revanchist ambitions. As a quid pro quo, he can now be sure of Putin’s support should Xi decide to militarily annex Taiwan.”

Putin had thought the US distracted and demoralized after its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan. This assessment, however, proved to be wrong. Biden has used sound judgment in recent months to build an international coalition against Russia, the political scientist said. “Xi and his advisers may now equally succumb to the fallacy that the US is tied up in Europe because of the war in Ukraine,” believes Fulda.

Fulda believes that the high focus of power on party leader Xi Jinping is particularly dangerous for the situation’s development. “Like Putin, Xi surrounds himself almost exclusively with yes-men. This increases the risk of miscalculations. Therefore, the importance of Taiwan to the US and its allies in East Asia should be made clear to Xi at the highest level.”

China’s finances are plagued by bad loans and overcapacity

One weakness of the Chinese economy is its high dependence on the US dollar. The South China Morning Post identifies this as one of the key lessons for Beijing from the Ukraine war. “The central bank has always regarded putting its foreign exchange reserves into US dollar bonds as the best way to ensure ‘safety’, but the freeze on Russia’s central bank assets could force Beijing to reconsider the policy,” the paper writes.

To accelerate preparations, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) proposed a legal obligation during the NPC that would require state institutions to align their activities with the goal of the island’s “return” to the motherland (China.Table reported). The time was called to be ripe to actively work toward “reunification”.

Marc Oliver Rieger, professor for finance at the University of Trier and director of the local Confucius Institute, sees further financial risks. “Not everything is solid in China’s finances, there are simply many bad loans and overcapacities. Regardless of a potential conflict with subsequent sanctions, there’s no guarantee that growth will continue.”

However, Rieger believes that military risk could dissuade Xi Jinping from invading. “In particular, I think the possible intervention of the US in the war, which has not been ruled out at all in the case of Taiwan, carries more weight than possible sanctions.”

  • Geopolitics
  • Konfuzius-Institute
  • Russia
  • Taiwan
  • Ukraine
  • USA

News

Russian minister asks China for help

According to its own statement, Russia is counting on China to cushion the impact of sanctions imposed by Western countries. The sanctions have cut off Moscow’s access to just over half of its $640 billion in gold and foreign currency reserves, Russia’s Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said on Sunday, according to a Reuters report. “We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan.”

Russia, he said, sees Western countries putting pressure on China to restrict mutual trade with Russia. “But I think that our partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only maintain, but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing,” Siluanov said. These statements by the Minister of Finance have been Moscow’s clearest request for help from China to date.

US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, warned China against throwing Russia an economic lifeline. Efforts to circumvent sanctions and support Russia would have consequences, Sullivan told CNN this weekend. Sullivan is expected to meet with China’s senior diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome on Monday.

A senior adviser to the Ukrainian government, Oleg Ustenko, had stressed the importance of China last week. “The only country who really benefits now from this armed conflict, war in Ukraine, is China,” Ustenko said at a conference of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The People’s Republic would benefit from increasing supplies of Russian energy and as a “connector between Russia and the rest of the world.” ari

  • Geopolitics
  • Russia
  • Ukraine

Lockdown in multiple cities

In the most severe Covid wave in China since the beginning of the pandemic more than two years ago, the number of infections continues to skyrocket despite a zero Covid strategy. The health commission reported a daily record of more than 3,100 cases in 19 regions on Sunday. Authorities are responding with lockdowns, mass testing, transportation restrictions, curfews, and the closure of schools and universities.

Authorities have now imposed an initial one-week lockdown on Shenzhen, a metropolis of nine million people that borders Hong Kong, which was also badly hit. The 26 million residents of Shanghai and the 9 million residents of Qingdao have been urged not to leave the port metropolises if possible. Those who absolutely must travel have to present a negative Covid test taken in the past 48 hours. In the south, Dongguan is affected in addition to the megacity Shenzhen.

In Shanghai, classes for all students up to middle school have been temporarily suspended. Preschools are also being closed. The provincial capital of Changchun in the northeastern province of Jilin has also been placed under lockdown, Bloomberg reports. The city is home to nine million people.

Three temporary hospitals with 1,200 beds have been established in Jilin to treat and isolate infected individuals. Such hospitals have been raised during past outbreaks. This approach will be maintained, according to a source familiar with the country’s plans, Bloomberg reports. Shanghai had previously refrained from lockdowns. At the conclusion of the National People’s Congress, China’s Premier Li Keqiang said China’s Covid strategy should become “more scientific and targeted and to maintain the normal functioning of everyday life and supply chains.” nib

  • Coronavirus
  • Health

Number of cancer cases on the rise

The number of cancer diagnoses in China has risen sharply over the past 20 years. This is revealed in a new study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as reported by business portal Caixin. The recorded incidence of cancer increased between the years 2000 and 2019:

  • in the 15-49 age group by almost 37 percent,
  • in the 50-69 age group by almost 14 percent,
  • and by 22.5 percent in the 70+ age group.

The study thus warns that cancer rates will continue to rise due to the aging of society. The authors emphasized the importance of screening for early cancer diagnosis and treatment. In 2019, 2.7 million people died from cancer in the People’s Republic. A 45 percent increase compared to the reference year 2000. Breast cancer was the most common cancer type among women in China, according to the report. The incidence of breast cancer is increasing faster in China than the global average and is also higher than in European countries and the United States, Caixin reports.

The higher cancer rates are also partly the result of improvements in screening. China has launched campaigns for early identification of breast cancer in recent years. However, the early detection rate for breast cancer is still only 20 percent. In European countries and the USA, the rate is 85 percent. By comparison, the number of new cancer cases in Germany has stagnated at 500,000 annually for around ten years. nib

  • Health
  • Society

US House of Representatives: ban on maps that depict Taiwan ‘inaccurately’

The US House of Representatives wants to ban the US State Department from buying maps that show Taiwan as part of China. The amendment is part of the US government spending bill passed by the lower house last week. The bill clears government spending for Washington till the end of the year. In a section titled “Maps,” the bill states that “None of the funds made available by this Act may be used to create, procure, or display any map that depicts Taiwan … as part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China.” The amendment was introduced by five Republican congressmen, according to a media report. The legislation still has to be signed by the US Senate. ari

  • Geopolitics
  • Taiwan
  • USA

Profile

Renjie Qian – data analyst and car expert

Renjie Qian, Project Manager and Data Analyst at the Center for Automotive Research

When asked about his vision for mobility in Germany, Renjie Qian replies soberly: “More charging stations.” Even in new buildings, charging stations were often not included in the design, which is a real problem. Qian works as a Project Manager and Data Analyst at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Duisburg, Germany. Ten years ago, he moved to Germany from his native China. He left the metropolis of Shanghai to study at a college in Linnich, a town with 13,000 residents in North Rhine-Westphalia.

“It was a culture shock,” says Qian. “I was born and raised in Shanghai, I spent my whole life there. I thought all cities were like it. The noisy streets, the stores, the commotion.” He laughs. What we call cities, to him, are villages. “Life here is more relaxed.” For his studies, Qian moved to Duisburg, to the Marxloh district, which many call a “no-go area.” “It was fabulous,” he says. And leaves it at that.

Start at CAR as a student assistant

That he landed a job in the automobile industry was more of a coincidence – or “fate,” as Qian calls it. “I’m a lucky person, whenever I need help, it comes.” In this case, it was the job that came to him. Prof. Dr. Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, Director of CAR, was at the time at the University of Duisburg-Essen with his institute and was looking for a student assistant.

The fact that Qian was a Chinese native speaker played into his hands: Dudenhoeffer’s institute develops mobility studies and organizes international conventions in the mobility sector – and his team also works with Chinese companies for this purpose. Qian was hired after completing his studies and is now largely responsible for contacts with China. He sees himself as a link between the countries.

‘Ten years ago, I wouldn’t have bought a Chinese car’

“China’s car industry has greatly developed in recent years,” Qian says. “Ten years ago, I wouldn’t have bought a Chinese car, but today, it’s different.” He sees his home country’s expertise primarily in e-mobility. “China, but also Japan and Korea, have invested a lot in the field. Germany is still lagging behind.” For too long, he says, people here have rested on the successes of combustion engines. And what can German automakers do to trump the competition now? “With software,” says Qian. And that doesn’t just mean multimedia, navigation systems and gadgets, but also engine and battery management systems.

Even though the 35-year-old sometimes misses his home, he sees his future in Germany. He likes the new, quieter life – and the fact that nature is so close to the people here. “Before I came to Germany, I had never seen a bird’s nest,” Qian says. Shanghai is now too big for him. Svenja Napp

Executive Moves

Guntram Wolff is the new director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The current director of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel will take up the post on August 1. Wolff’s predecessor Cathryn Cluever-Ashbrook had left the organization in mid-February, effective immediately.

Mario Struebing is the new Director Aftersales at FAW-Volkswagen in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. Struebing was previously Manager Aftersales at Volkswagen in Wolfsburg.

So To Speak

“clash of clothing”

撞衫 – zhuàngshān – “clash of clothing”

Red carpet, two women, one dress. A wardrobe double is the ultimate celebrity nightmare at premiere parties and glamour galas. But even at private parties, in open-plan offices and on lecture hall benches, some people suffer from fashion anxiety when someone shows up wearing the same sweaters or summer dress. In Chinese, there is even an own term for such unpleasant fashion clashes, namely 撞衫 zhuàngshān – a combination of the characters 撞 zhuàng “to clash, collide” (as in 撞车 zhuàngchē “car collision”) and 衫 shān as in 衬衫 chènshān “top, blouse, shirt”.

Of course, you can not only clash with tops, but also with everything else that can be put on and worn. Especially if you have acquired some trendy “hot item” (爆款 bàokuǎn – the figurative Chinese term for a product that is selling like hot cakes).

The range of possible accidents on the sidewalk includes shoe clashes (撞鞋 zhuàngxié), trouser clashes (撞裤子 zhuàng kùzi), bag clashes (撞包 zhuàngbāo) and sunglasses clashes (撞墨镜 zhuàng mòjìng). If you are particularly unlucky, you might even experience a face clash (撞脸 zhuàngliǎn), meaning you meet someone who is the spitting image of you. And last but not least, there is the dreaded name clash – people who either have the same name (同名 tóngmíng) or whose name in Chinese is made up of different characters but is pronounced the same (同音 tóngyīn).

By the way, the Chinese have made a virtue out of necessity and unceremoniously declared lookalikes to be a fashion trend. On Taobao and other shopping platforms, twin looks have become a fashion category in their own right. If you type in the keyword “partner look” (情侣装 qínglǚzhuāng), you will not only find partner T-shirts (情侣衫 qínglǚshān) and partner sweatshirts (情侣卫衣 qínglǚ wèiyī), but also pajamas (情侣睡衣 qínglǚ shuìyī), jackets (情侣外套 qínglǚ wàitào), sneakers (情侣球鞋 qínglǚ qiúxié) and wristwatches (情侣手表 qínglǚ shǒubiǎo), even complete outfits in a couples’ look.

The trend does no longer stop at lovebirds, by the way, but has also spilled over to other target groups. In China, the partner dress is now also available as a family version (亲子装 qīnzǐzhuāng – “parent-child look”) and even as a pet version (matching couple outfits for owners and their dogs, cats, hamsters, etc.). There are no limits to creativity.

Verena Menzel runs the language school New Chinese in Beijing.

  • Society

China.Table editorial office

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    • Premier Li announces resignation
    • What has Beijing learned from sanctions on Russia?
    • Minister: Moscow counts on Chinese financial aid
    • Covid infections rising drastically
    • Study: More cancer diagnoses
    • USA: Ban on maps that show Taiwan as part of China?
    • Profile: Renjie Qian – data analyst and auto expert
    • So To Speak: The unpleasant ‘fashion clash’
    Dear reader,

    It was an announcement that was both surprising and unsurprising. On Friday at the conclusion of the National People’s Congress, China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced his resignation from office at the end of the year. This is actually normal in the People’s Republic. Previously, two five-year terms in office were the rule for both the prime minister and the president.

    But not with Xi Jinping. The state and party leader plans to be reelected for another term and can now choose a suitable prime minister. Frank Sieren takes a look at the possible successors to Li Keqiang – should Xi follow past appointment patterns. But a surprise is always possible with him.

    Regardless of who becomes the next premier in Xi’s shadow, he will also face a continuing question: Taiwan’s fate has returned to the spotlight in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Does the West’s reaction to Putin’s war tend to deter political leaders in Beijing? Or do they even feel encouraged by Russia’s invasion to attack Taiwan?

    We have already looked at this topic from different angles here at China.Table. This time, the question is how to immunize the country against possible sanctions by the West. Beijing could draw conclusions from the sanctions against Russia and bolster its own resilience to ensure that trade restrictions following a potential attack on Taiwan would be less effective. China’s desire to become independent of foreign expertise in a growing number of economic sectors could receive a huge boost, writes Marcel Grzanna.

    Your
    Nico Beckert
    Image of Nico  Beckert

    Feature

    Li Keqiang resigns – who will step into Xi’s shadow?

    Premier Li Keqiang will retire from office in 2023.

    For many decades, the authoritarian political system of the People’s Republic of China had a political virtue. After two terms, that is, every ten years, both the president and his prime minister had to step down along with their teams, and two new politicians took over. “This is the last year I will be premier,” Li Keqiang confirmed on Friday. He is stepping down from his post after two terms. President Xi Jinping, on the other hand, intends to take a different path.

    Typically, the successor to the president is announced after about five years. From then on, the successor keeps a close eye on the incumbent president. The incumbent’s remaining time in office should not be used to burn all bridges. Although the top political leadership was not elected by the citizens of the People’s Republic, but rather selected by the Communist Party, there was at least a new impetus at least every five years and a major one every ten years.

    This sensible system was already undermined by head of state Xi back in 2018. He is now able to rule for as long as the party, which he heads, lets him. Long terms of office have advantages and disadvantages. Among Western democracies, Germany is one country whose voters chose to keep Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel (both 16 years) in office for a long time. Xi has only ten years under his belt. Especially in such a large country, there are good reasons for longer office terms to enact major reforms. For example, Xi was and is much more effective than his predecessors in the fight against corruption.

    Loyalty over balance

    The disadvantages, however, weigh greater. Above all, Xi begins to take on more and more autocratic traits. In the prime minister’s annual report to the National People’s Congress, the incumbent president was usually included in the ranks of his predecessors in honor of their previous accomplishments. This year, only Xi was mentioned.

    This is so far from the Chinese mindset, which is much more characterized by the idea of balancing complex networks and history than the West. In Chinese culture, balance is considered a higher art, and better politics than the powerful, all-sweeping solo act. Xi seems to tend more toward the latter. This may also be the case for the selection of the new prime minister.

    There is already a lot of public speculation about who might be the successor. However, things tend to turn out differently than expected. There are many indications that the new prime minister will be a loyal follower of Xi rather than a man or woman who would see himself or herself as a corrective to the president. President Xi is expected to deliberate on Li’s successor in the fall. The head of state is entitled to propose a candidate for the premier post.

    Is Xi following the usual selection procedures?

    Generally, a politician who became prime minister was already a simple member of the Politburo beforehand. Of the 25 Politburo members, seven already belong to the Standing Committee and are thus overqualified for new impulses. That leaves 18, nine of whom have already reached the retirement age of 68. Xi will turn 68 in June, leaving nine candidates for the post of premier, that is if Xi sticks to the traditional selection procedures. Of these nine, six have already reached an age where they will not be able to govern for the next ten years without passing the retirement age.

    This leaves three candidates:

    • Chen Min’er (born 1960), currently Party Secretary of Chongqing, the world’s largest city.
    • Ding Xuexiang (born 1962), Executive Deputy Director of the General Office.
    • Hu Chunhua (born 1963), Vice Premier, but is considered more of a confidant of Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, a politician from the old days.

    Two candidates stand out as successors

    That leaves Chen and Ding. Chen spent most of his career in the booming province of Zhejiang, south of Shanghai. But he also served as Party Secretary in Guizhou province, which is still very poor. Ding is Xi’s most important figure in the party. He already worked for him in Shanghai and then followed him to Beijing.

    So it could be one of the two. If Xi doesn’t have a surprise in store. And he certainly has the power to do so. Or to put it another way: The appointment of the new prime minister will, above all, demonstrate how powerful Xi Jinping is – and that, in turn, speaks for a surprising appointment that no one saw coming.

    • Chinese Communist Party
    • Li Keqiang
    • National People’s Congress
    • Xi Jinping

    Sanctions against Russia provide important insights

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine has severely damaged the credibility of autocratic regimes. Along with the Russian government, the Chinese government will probably also have to pay a price. Those in the political West who were firmly confident of Vladimir Putin’s integrity in the past will now look to Beijing with much more unease and mistrust. Voices in the West that attempt to convey China’s good intentions will have a harder time being heard.

    Last week’s National People’s Congress has proven why opposition is likely to rise in the future. China’s authoritarian ruling cadres failed to condemn Russia’s war of aggression on its biggest political stage. They are only tentatively joining in the sanctions against Moscow anyway. Instead, China’s media paint a picture of the war that is supposed to create sympathy for Russia among the Chinese population.

    China is trying to position itself as a mediator and appeasing power in the crisis. But how seriously should the country be taken? Observers had the feeling that the deaths in Europe were of no concern to China. But that cannot be further from the truth.

    Dual Circulation may be part of the strategy

    Putin’s war in Ukraine is certainly not to the benefit of the Chinese government, which is openly threatening Taiwan with forced annexation. Because as a result, Taiwan’s allies are now likely to prepare just as meticulously for a possible Chinese invasion of the island as the People’s Republic has been doing for years.

    At the same time, Beijing probably has a more specific idea of when it can consider itself in a position to annex Taiwan. On the one hand, when the armed forces of the People’s Republic are capable of doing so. Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng believes an invasion by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army to be possible in 2025. On the other hand, China is working on the economic foundations that would secure an invasion.

    Beijing is carefully studying Western sanctions against Russia to be ready with appropriate countermeasures. “China will closely monitor Western sanctions against Russia and meticulously examine how Moscow deals with them,” says political scientist Li Mingjiang of the Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore. “From this, the government wants to draw its conclusions on how to deal with such sanctions itself, which would result from a Chinese military campaign against Taiwan.”

    Li believes that the highly heralded dual circulation policy may already be part of Beijing’s strategy for dealing with such a scenario. Dual Circulation is intended to strengthen China’s domestic circular flow of income and reduce its dependence on exports. This is one of the main goals of the next Five-Year Plan (China.Table reported).

    Xi’s environment raises the risk of miscalculation

    Researcher Li does not believe that Russia’s example “will significantly change China’s determination to reunify.” China is aware of its greater resilience, even if sanctions against Russia “will cause Beijing to be more cautious before using violent means against Taiwan.”

    Meanwhile, Andreas Fulda of the University of Nottingham believes that the Ukraine crisis made a Chinese invasion of Taiwan more likely. “With the joint statement of February 4, 2022, Xi has pledged political support to Putin for his revanchist ambitions. As a quid pro quo, he can now be sure of Putin’s support should Xi decide to militarily annex Taiwan.”

    Putin had thought the US distracted and demoralized after its hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan. This assessment, however, proved to be wrong. Biden has used sound judgment in recent months to build an international coalition against Russia, the political scientist said. “Xi and his advisers may now equally succumb to the fallacy that the US is tied up in Europe because of the war in Ukraine,” believes Fulda.

    Fulda believes that the high focus of power on party leader Xi Jinping is particularly dangerous for the situation’s development. “Like Putin, Xi surrounds himself almost exclusively with yes-men. This increases the risk of miscalculations. Therefore, the importance of Taiwan to the US and its allies in East Asia should be made clear to Xi at the highest level.”

    China’s finances are plagued by bad loans and overcapacity

    One weakness of the Chinese economy is its high dependence on the US dollar. The South China Morning Post identifies this as one of the key lessons for Beijing from the Ukraine war. “The central bank has always regarded putting its foreign exchange reserves into US dollar bonds as the best way to ensure ‘safety’, but the freeze on Russia’s central bank assets could force Beijing to reconsider the policy,” the paper writes.

    To accelerate preparations, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) proposed a legal obligation during the NPC that would require state institutions to align their activities with the goal of the island’s “return” to the motherland (China.Table reported). The time was called to be ripe to actively work toward “reunification”.

    Marc Oliver Rieger, professor for finance at the University of Trier and director of the local Confucius Institute, sees further financial risks. “Not everything is solid in China’s finances, there are simply many bad loans and overcapacities. Regardless of a potential conflict with subsequent sanctions, there’s no guarantee that growth will continue.”

    However, Rieger believes that military risk could dissuade Xi Jinping from invading. “In particular, I think the possible intervention of the US in the war, which has not been ruled out at all in the case of Taiwan, carries more weight than possible sanctions.”

    • Geopolitics
    • Konfuzius-Institute
    • Russia
    • Taiwan
    • Ukraine
    • USA

    News

    Russian minister asks China for help

    According to its own statement, Russia is counting on China to cushion the impact of sanctions imposed by Western countries. The sanctions have cut off Moscow’s access to just over half of its $640 billion in gold and foreign currency reserves, Russia’s Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said on Sunday, according to a Reuters report. “We have part of our gold and foreign exchange reserves in the Chinese currency, in yuan.”

    Russia, he said, sees Western countries putting pressure on China to restrict mutual trade with Russia. “But I think that our partnership with China will still allow us to maintain the cooperation that we have achieved, and not only maintain, but also increase it in an environment where Western markets are closing,” Siluanov said. These statements by the Minister of Finance have been Moscow’s clearest request for help from China to date.

    US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, warned China against throwing Russia an economic lifeline. Efforts to circumvent sanctions and support Russia would have consequences, Sullivan told CNN this weekend. Sullivan is expected to meet with China’s senior diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome on Monday.

    A senior adviser to the Ukrainian government, Oleg Ustenko, had stressed the importance of China last week. “The only country who really benefits now from this armed conflict, war in Ukraine, is China,” Ustenko said at a conference of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The People’s Republic would benefit from increasing supplies of Russian energy and as a “connector between Russia and the rest of the world.” ari

    • Geopolitics
    • Russia
    • Ukraine

    Lockdown in multiple cities

    In the most severe Covid wave in China since the beginning of the pandemic more than two years ago, the number of infections continues to skyrocket despite a zero Covid strategy. The health commission reported a daily record of more than 3,100 cases in 19 regions on Sunday. Authorities are responding with lockdowns, mass testing, transportation restrictions, curfews, and the closure of schools and universities.

    Authorities have now imposed an initial one-week lockdown on Shenzhen, a metropolis of nine million people that borders Hong Kong, which was also badly hit. The 26 million residents of Shanghai and the 9 million residents of Qingdao have been urged not to leave the port metropolises if possible. Those who absolutely must travel have to present a negative Covid test taken in the past 48 hours. In the south, Dongguan is affected in addition to the megacity Shenzhen.

    In Shanghai, classes for all students up to middle school have been temporarily suspended. Preschools are also being closed. The provincial capital of Changchun in the northeastern province of Jilin has also been placed under lockdown, Bloomberg reports. The city is home to nine million people.

    Three temporary hospitals with 1,200 beds have been established in Jilin to treat and isolate infected individuals. Such hospitals have been raised during past outbreaks. This approach will be maintained, according to a source familiar with the country’s plans, Bloomberg reports. Shanghai had previously refrained from lockdowns. At the conclusion of the National People’s Congress, China’s Premier Li Keqiang said China’s Covid strategy should become “more scientific and targeted and to maintain the normal functioning of everyday life and supply chains.” nib

    • Coronavirus
    • Health

    Number of cancer cases on the rise

    The number of cancer diagnoses in China has risen sharply over the past 20 years. This is revealed in a new study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as reported by business portal Caixin. The recorded incidence of cancer increased between the years 2000 and 2019:

    • in the 15-49 age group by almost 37 percent,
    • in the 50-69 age group by almost 14 percent,
    • and by 22.5 percent in the 70+ age group.

    The study thus warns that cancer rates will continue to rise due to the aging of society. The authors emphasized the importance of screening for early cancer diagnosis and treatment. In 2019, 2.7 million people died from cancer in the People’s Republic. A 45 percent increase compared to the reference year 2000. Breast cancer was the most common cancer type among women in China, according to the report. The incidence of breast cancer is increasing faster in China than the global average and is also higher than in European countries and the United States, Caixin reports.

    The higher cancer rates are also partly the result of improvements in screening. China has launched campaigns for early identification of breast cancer in recent years. However, the early detection rate for breast cancer is still only 20 percent. In European countries and the USA, the rate is 85 percent. By comparison, the number of new cancer cases in Germany has stagnated at 500,000 annually for around ten years. nib

    • Health
    • Society

    US House of Representatives: ban on maps that depict Taiwan ‘inaccurately’

    The US House of Representatives wants to ban the US State Department from buying maps that show Taiwan as part of China. The amendment is part of the US government spending bill passed by the lower house last week. The bill clears government spending for Washington till the end of the year. In a section titled “Maps,” the bill states that “None of the funds made available by this Act may be used to create, procure, or display any map that depicts Taiwan … as part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China.” The amendment was introduced by five Republican congressmen, according to a media report. The legislation still has to be signed by the US Senate. ari

    • Geopolitics
    • Taiwan
    • USA

    Profile

    Renjie Qian – data analyst and car expert

    Renjie Qian, Project Manager and Data Analyst at the Center for Automotive Research

    When asked about his vision for mobility in Germany, Renjie Qian replies soberly: “More charging stations.” Even in new buildings, charging stations were often not included in the design, which is a real problem. Qian works as a Project Manager and Data Analyst at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) in Duisburg, Germany. Ten years ago, he moved to Germany from his native China. He left the metropolis of Shanghai to study at a college in Linnich, a town with 13,000 residents in North Rhine-Westphalia.

    “It was a culture shock,” says Qian. “I was born and raised in Shanghai, I spent my whole life there. I thought all cities were like it. The noisy streets, the stores, the commotion.” He laughs. What we call cities, to him, are villages. “Life here is more relaxed.” For his studies, Qian moved to Duisburg, to the Marxloh district, which many call a “no-go area.” “It was fabulous,” he says. And leaves it at that.

    Start at CAR as a student assistant

    That he landed a job in the automobile industry was more of a coincidence – or “fate,” as Qian calls it. “I’m a lucky person, whenever I need help, it comes.” In this case, it was the job that came to him. Prof. Dr. Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, Director of CAR, was at the time at the University of Duisburg-Essen with his institute and was looking for a student assistant.

    The fact that Qian was a Chinese native speaker played into his hands: Dudenhoeffer’s institute develops mobility studies and organizes international conventions in the mobility sector – and his team also works with Chinese companies for this purpose. Qian was hired after completing his studies and is now largely responsible for contacts with China. He sees himself as a link between the countries.

    ‘Ten years ago, I wouldn’t have bought a Chinese car’

    “China’s car industry has greatly developed in recent years,” Qian says. “Ten years ago, I wouldn’t have bought a Chinese car, but today, it’s different.” He sees his home country’s expertise primarily in e-mobility. “China, but also Japan and Korea, have invested a lot in the field. Germany is still lagging behind.” For too long, he says, people here have rested on the successes of combustion engines. And what can German automakers do to trump the competition now? “With software,” says Qian. And that doesn’t just mean multimedia, navigation systems and gadgets, but also engine and battery management systems.

    Even though the 35-year-old sometimes misses his home, he sees his future in Germany. He likes the new, quieter life – and the fact that nature is so close to the people here. “Before I came to Germany, I had never seen a bird’s nest,” Qian says. Shanghai is now too big for him. Svenja Napp

    Executive Moves

    Guntram Wolff is the new director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). The current director of the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel will take up the post on August 1. Wolff’s predecessor Cathryn Cluever-Ashbrook had left the organization in mid-February, effective immediately.

    Mario Struebing is the new Director Aftersales at FAW-Volkswagen in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. Struebing was previously Manager Aftersales at Volkswagen in Wolfsburg.

    So To Speak

    “clash of clothing”

    撞衫 – zhuàngshān – “clash of clothing”

    Red carpet, two women, one dress. A wardrobe double is the ultimate celebrity nightmare at premiere parties and glamour galas. But even at private parties, in open-plan offices and on lecture hall benches, some people suffer from fashion anxiety when someone shows up wearing the same sweaters or summer dress. In Chinese, there is even an own term for such unpleasant fashion clashes, namely 撞衫 zhuàngshān – a combination of the characters 撞 zhuàng “to clash, collide” (as in 撞车 zhuàngchē “car collision”) and 衫 shān as in 衬衫 chènshān “top, blouse, shirt”.

    Of course, you can not only clash with tops, but also with everything else that can be put on and worn. Especially if you have acquired some trendy “hot item” (爆款 bàokuǎn – the figurative Chinese term for a product that is selling like hot cakes).

    The range of possible accidents on the sidewalk includes shoe clashes (撞鞋 zhuàngxié), trouser clashes (撞裤子 zhuàng kùzi), bag clashes (撞包 zhuàngbāo) and sunglasses clashes (撞墨镜 zhuàng mòjìng). If you are particularly unlucky, you might even experience a face clash (撞脸 zhuàngliǎn), meaning you meet someone who is the spitting image of you. And last but not least, there is the dreaded name clash – people who either have the same name (同名 tóngmíng) or whose name in Chinese is made up of different characters but is pronounced the same (同音 tóngyīn).

    By the way, the Chinese have made a virtue out of necessity and unceremoniously declared lookalikes to be a fashion trend. On Taobao and other shopping platforms, twin looks have become a fashion category in their own right. If you type in the keyword “partner look” (情侣装 qínglǚzhuāng), you will not only find partner T-shirts (情侣衫 qínglǚshān) and partner sweatshirts (情侣卫衣 qínglǚ wèiyī), but also pajamas (情侣睡衣 qínglǚ shuìyī), jackets (情侣外套 qínglǚ wàitào), sneakers (情侣球鞋 qínglǚ qiúxié) and wristwatches (情侣手表 qínglǚ shǒubiǎo), even complete outfits in a couples’ look.

    The trend does no longer stop at lovebirds, by the way, but has also spilled over to other target groups. In China, the partner dress is now also available as a family version (亲子装 qīnzǐzhuāng – “parent-child look”) and even as a pet version (matching couple outfits for owners and their dogs, cats, hamsters, etc.). There are no limits to creativity.

    Verena Menzel runs the language school New Chinese in Beijing.

    • Society

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