Table.Briefing: China

Crops at risk + Taiwan’s conscription + Luckin’s coffee success

  • Lockdown hinders corn planting in Jilin
  • Taipei works on defense strategy
  • Luckin grabs market share from Starbucks
  • Immigration: Shortened quarantine in several cities
  • Exports increased significantly in March
  • Censors cut new “Dumbledore” movie
  • Profile: Lillian Zhang – from journalism to hardware
Dear reader,

Amid the devastating zero-covid policy, there might now be a small ray of hope, at least for travelers from abroad: Eight cities are expected to shorten the mandatory quarantine after arrival. However, multiple PCR and antigen tests will still be required. Read more about this in today’s News section.

An overall relaxation of the strict lockdown – which is still all but certain – may come too late for the northeastern province of Jilin. The region grows a particularly large amount of corn. But Beijing’s zero-covid policy could now cause the crop seeding to fail, writes Ning Wang. This is because corn grows only once a year and must be sown within a certain time period. And yet another problem threatens corn supplies: the war in Ukraine. Nearly a third of imported corn comes from Ukraine. Imports from there are now at risk.

For Taiwan, Russia’s invasion of its neighbor is an even more ominous scenario. The island is on heightened alert, and expanding mandatory military service is currently under debate. Our colleague David Demes in Taiwan spoke with a reservist about his training and looked over the positions of military analysts. The latter warn that an extension of conscription and the training of civilians to use special weapons is not possible in the short term.

Due to the holidays, you will receive the next issue of China.Table next Tuesday. We wish you a Happy Easter and some relaxing spring days.

Your
Amelie Richter
Image of Amelie  Richter

Feature

Corn: Potential crop failure could impact global market

A picture from better times: Corn harvest in Jilin in 2012

Not just in Shanghai, but also in the province of Jilin, lockdowns have been in effect indefinitely for weeks now. This threatens to cause crop failures, which could further exacerbate the supply situation. Jilin, which is known for its highly fertile soils, accounts for about ten percent of the national corn harvest. Food prices, which have already climbed due to higher energy prices, could rise even further as a result of crop failures.

Most recently, grain was already scarce in the country due to a particularly poor winter wheat harvest. As a result, Beijing now imports grain and stockpiles it in state granaries (China.Table reported). This shifts domestic shortages to the global market, where prices also rise. Now, something similar could happen with corn and its price on the global market.

Experts suggest that the problems could be even more serious this time. Even Pay, an agriculture analyst at strategic consulting firm Trivium China, points out that corn grows only once a year and must be planted in a specific time period – usually within the two weeks between the end of April and the beginning of May, which will now be affected by the lockdown. Pay warns of significant crop losses.

Beijing makes grain sowing a top priority

Leaders in Beijing also appear alarmed by the side effect of the self-imposed lockdowns. Issues with food supplies not only cause unrest among the urban population. It deprives the rural population of their livelihoods. Vice Premier Hu Chunhua reacted immediately and assembled a conference call to secure corn and rice production.

Addressing national regulators and officials from the affected provinces, Hu strongly stressed that spring planting must proceed without any problems. He further urged officials to ensure that the nationwide COVID-19 measures do not “disrupt” agricultural production.

This is because corn, which comes from Jilin, is not only vital to provide food for China’s urban population, but also as livestock feed. Experts from Trivium China believe that 60 percent of all corn is used as animal feed, and Hu will therefore strongly regulate the use of corn as fuel in this difficult year.

Beijing had opened its state corn reserves between the years 2015 to 2018, as corn was available in abundance. This favored the development of a separate industry for corn processing. But those reserves are now depleted. Now, the former corn blessing proves to be a curse. This is because corn was also processed into cheap industrial alcohol. These companies are still around and, in addition to the food and agricultural sectors, are further driving the demand for corn.

Ukraine was important corn supplier for China

The war in Ukraine is adding to the woes. According to the business magazine Caixin, 29 percent of imported corn is imported from Ukraine. The majority of corn imports are used primarily in animal feed processing. As a result, among the three major staple foods (corn, wheat, rice), the volume of corn and wheat imports increased dramatically.

China tries to secure its supply by purchasing corn from the United States. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Beijing bought more than one million tons of American corn in early April. This was the largest corn purchase in the US since May 2021.

Even if it seems like just a precautionary measure, China’s dependence on imports has long been a thorn in the side of state and party leader Xi Jinping. Back in 2018, during one of his many inspection tours across the country, Xi said, “Chinese people’s rice bowls must always be held firmly in our own hands, and should be full mainly of Chinese grain.” The problem has spread from rice and wheat to corn. The CP has long recognized the importance of food security and issues regulation after regulation. At the heart of the measures are subsidies for rice, wheat and corn cultivation. But China’s Covid measures jeopardize the effectiveness of these programs.

Thus, fertilizer bottlenecks affect supply just as much as farm labor shortages. “Fertilizer production, in particular, is very energy-intensive,” Pay of Trivium China recently told Sixth Tone. Due to power shortages in recent years, production has been curtailed. This now compounds the current cluster of problems.

Accordingly, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua was quite clear during his telephone conference: “Make sure that farmers get the fertilizers and pesticides they need at a reasonable price,” Hu said. However, experts and farmers doubt that his pithy orders can be carried out in time.

  • Agriculture
  • Coronavirus
  • Health
  • Nutrition

In Ukraine’s shadow: Taiwan rethinks its strategy

Taiwan’s military has published an emergency manual for the first time. Shown here is the digital version.

On 28 pages, Taiwanese citizens are prepared for an emergency: Where are fallout shelters located, how do sirens differ, and what should be stockpiled as emergency supplies? Earlier this week, Taiwan’s military published its first-ever handbook to help civilians prepare for a potential Chinese invasion. The manual is intended to raise awareness of how to respond to and survive emergency situations, said Liu Tai-yi (劉泰益) of the Ministry of Defense.

Taiwan closely monitors the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Back in late January, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) instructed the National Security Council to establish a task force on the situation in Ukraine. Although her government repeatedly stresses that Taiwan’s situation is not comparable to that in Ukraine, there is great concern that China may feel encouraged in its efforts to finally take military action on Taiwan.

As recently as early March, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) warned in a report to parliament that the war in Ukraine could not only jeopardize the strategic balance in Europe, but could also affect the situation in the Indo-Pacific and security in the Taiwan Strait. It is not surprising that Taiwan is currently revising its defense strategy. Even the reintroduction of conscription is being discussed.

Volunteer army with organizational problems

Since 2000, the originally two-year basic military service had been gradually shortened. In 2013, military service (現役) was then discontinued altogether and replaced by four months of military training (軍事訓練) for all draft-eligible men born in 1994 or later. The training consists of five weeks of basic training and eleven weeks of special basic training. Those who successfully finish training are considered reservists until they reach the age of 36 and can be drafted in the event of war. About 15 percent are also called up for refresher crash courses at regular intervals to ensure operational readiness.

Despite numerous incentives, finding enough volunteer recruits has become a major issue since the armed forces were transformed into a volunteer army in 2018. The operational capability of the reserve is also constantly being called into question. At a US Congressional hearing in February 2021, military expert Michael Hunzeker stated, “there is a strong consensus among analysts and expert observers that absent a major reform, Taiwan’s reserve force will prove ineffective against all-out invasion.” Fortunately, reserve reform was a top priority for the Tsai government, Hunzeker added.

Live-fire training and loaded marching

Indeed, the refresher training for reservists was revised from the ground up and presented to the public for the first time at the beginning of the year. Instead of five to seven days, reservists now have to spend 14 days straight at training camp. China.Table spoke to one of the first reservists who took part in what is said to be the “toughest training in the history” of the Taiwanese reserve.

28-year-old Sean Yang is actually a psychologist, but when he puts on his uniform, he becomes a combat medic. He reports that the new training is much more extensive than before: “Three days of live-fire exercises, three days of loaded marching. The rest of the time we trained who takes which role in the squad, so that in an emergency everyone knows what to do.” The reservists spent part of their training not in the barracks, but outdoors, in community centers and schools. In places where they would be deployed in the event of war.

“During training, I was shown for the first time what piece of land I would have to defend in the event of war. What it looks like there, what infrastructure there is, what the environment is like, where I can seek shelter and get supplies. I didn’t know all that before.” It was only through the new training, he says, that he felt he could really use his home advantage in a fight.

Sean had already completed his four months of basic military training in 2016. So an extension would not affect him. Nevertheless, he believes that four months is sufficient – if it is used to its fullest extent. “There’s still a lot of time wasted. You often have to wait a long time between exercises,” Sean says.

Minister of Defense Chiu, meanwhile, announced that a decision on conscription would be made this year and any change to the service period would be announced at least twelve months before it comes into effect. So major changes are not expected before 2024. DPP deputy Lo Chih-Cheng (羅致政) pointed out that a legislative amendment would not even be required to reinstate one-year conscription. “If these twelve months are to be like the [four-month] military training in substance, then the law needs to be revised after all,” Lo told United Daily News.

Military analyst: extension of conscription hardly practicable

However, the extension of mandatory military service is not just a matter of whether the law needs to be amended. In fact, multiple factors are involved in this decision. Military analyst Lin Ping-yu (林秉宥) believes that an extension is hardly feasible logistically and financially. Speaking to China.Table, he points out that the spatial capacities alone are no longer sufficient for this: “Over the years, our army has been steadily reduced in size, from one million to less than 200,000 soldiers. During that period, many areas and barracks used for military purposes have been abandoned, revitalized and made available to the public.” If troop strength were to be increased again now, there would be not enough room or logistics to accommodate and supply this many recruits at one time. Training capacity itself is also a bottleneck that would be difficult to address in the short term.

Keven Yu (于北辰), retired Army general, was in charge of turning the armed forces into a professional army at the Ministry of Defense. He, too, publicly opposes a return to one-year mandatory military service. What matters is not just the size of the force, but the quality and extent of basic training, Yu said on the TV program PTSTalk. “Highly advanced and high-precision weapon systems such as tanks, aircraft and Patriot missiles can only be operated by professional soldiers. You can’t learn that at all in under a year.” Reservists could be trained to fire Javelins and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in a very short time in the event of war, because such systems would not require much training.

Following the successful use of such one-man surface-to-air missiles (English: MANPADS) against the Russian air force and armored units in Ukraine, several Taiwanese MPs called on the Ministry of Defense in a motion to integrate such weapon systems into reservist training. However, at the Defense Ministry’s request, the reference to MANPADS was replaced with a more general term. Reservists are now to be integrated into the “air defense of the armed forces” and trained in it.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) made it clear that Taiwan was ready to defend itself. “China will understand it will pay a very heavy price if it initiates conflict against Taiwan,” he warned Beijing. David Demes

  • Geopolitics
  • Military
  • Taiwan
  • Ukraine

Luckin Coffee triumphs over Starbucks

Coffee has gone from being a luxury drink to an everyday commodity in China’s big cities. Especially metropolises like Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen are dotted with coffee shops. Chinese coffee consumption has been steadily growing for years, and it is hardly surprising that China has become Starbucks’ second-largest market after the domestic US market. In 1999, the Seattle-based company opened its first branch in China and claims to now operate more than 5,400 stores in over 230 cities in China.

However, figures recently announced by CEO Kevin Johnson were not particularly pleasing. Sales were down 14 percent, which is surprising considering a worldwide increase of 13 percent. The so-called “same-store sales” compare the turnover of stores that were already open a year ago with this year’s figures. Profits generated by newly opened branches are excluded.

The main reason for the decrease in Starbucks’ business despite a higher coffee thirst is the rise of domestic competitors. Luckin Coffee, Starbucks’ biggest competitor, was only founded in 2017 and quickly attracted attention with coffee at competitive prices, a consistent online ordering system and a focus on implementing new technology.

It took the US chain about two years to respond to the challenge posed by Luckin Coffee with a new type of store. These new stores are called “Starbucks Now”. They are much smaller than normal Starbucks stores and (like Luckin Coffee) focus primarily on online orders.

Luckin even recovered from a massive accounting scandal

This allowed Starbucks to take some wind out of the sails of Luckin Coffee’s business model. Fortunately for Starbucks, Luckin Coffee’s stellar rise was followed by an equally steep fall after it was revealed that its balance sheet had been inflated by more than $300 million. Shares of the Chinese coffee chain, which at the time was well on its way to overtaking Starbucks in the total number of stores in China, first crashed and were eventually excluded from trading on NASDAQ (China.Table reported).

It seemed as if Starbucks had gotten off lightly and would continue to dominate the Chinese coffee market. But the Chinese competitor had not completely vanished. And now, it is back stronger than ever.

Luckin Coffee paid the $180 million penalty and restructured. Its management team was replaced and its expansion policy was scaled back in favor of higher quality. New products like a coconut milk latte were introduced and quickly became hit sellers.

With recently published figures, Luckin Coffee is now back on track. The chain reported a sales increase of more than 97 percent to ¥8 billion (more than $1 billion) in 2021. Hidden in the presentation was an explosive detail: Luckin Coffee has now surpassed Starbucks in total store count. The Chinese chain now operates more than 6,000 shops across China. At the same time, Luckin Coffee is trying to get back into NASDAQ.

Global corporation Starbucks struggles to keep up in China

Starbucks does everything in its power to stay in the game. Since February, the company has also been officially available on Meituan, China’s largest food delivery app, and plans to list all of its stores individually on the app. The service has been expanded for this purpose and now also offers the option of booking coffee experience evenings or renting entire stores. In addition, Starbucks China focuses on even more diverse services with Starbucks Reserve stores (a kind of premium Starbucks where customers can choose their own coffee beans) and Bar Mixato stores (a mix between coffee shop and bar).

Chinese customers are very demanding and require a high level of comfort. Companies that want to survive in this market have to be competitive on all levels. Visibility on the market and constant re-invention have become essential. A phenomenon that is not limited to the coffee shop business alone. This forces companies to innovate, which they can also transfer to other markets.

So the fight for the top goes into the next round. However, both companies have one thing in common. Although Luckin Coffee is slightly cheaper than Starbucks, the Chinese rival has abandoned its former competitive prices. Both companies now compete in roughly the same price range of about ¥26 (Luckin Coffee) or ¥30 (Starbucks) for a cup of coffee. Gregor Koppenburg/Joern Petring

  • Meituan
  • Society

News

Entry from abroad: shortening of quarantine in several cities

China has eased quarantine regulations for travelers entering the country from abroad as part of a pilot program in several cities. The quarantine for travelers from foreign countries abroad has been shortened from 14 to 10 days, Caixin reported, citing government documents from the State Council. After 10 days, individuals then must spend another week under observation at home. Within these 17 days, six PCR and six antigen tests are required.

According to the report, these pilot programs have already started on Monday. They are planned to run for the next four weeks in Dalian, Shanghai, Suzhou, Ningbo, Xiamen, Qingdao, Guangzhou and Chengdu. However, Reuters cited hotel employees in affected cities who have not yet been informed of the changes.

In pilot cities, the eased requirements also apply to close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases. In eight cities, lockdowns of housing units will now be lifted within ten days after the last positive case occurs. So far, this has been 14 days. The pilot project is intended to help authorities better understand how antigen testing can be used in pandemic control and better determine the duration of isolation, Caixin said.

China reported nearly 28,000 new infection cases on Wednesday, with the vast majority in Shanghai. The metropolis reported a new high of 26,330 new infections on Tuesday. While curfews have been relaxed in some parts of the city (China.Table reported), most of Shanghai remains under strict lockdown. ari

  • Coronavirus
  • Health

Exports rise despite all problems

Despite the war in Ukraine and the lockdown in Shanghai, Chinese exports have been surprisingly strong in March. Exports increased by almost 15 percent compared to March last year. This means that there was no decrease, which economists had actually expected in light of the turmoil on the global market.

However, the developments of the past two months left their mark. Imports declined for the first time in a year and a half, albeit only marginally. China procures fewer goods from abroad due to Covid and the resulting lockdowns.

However, the March figures are only a snapshot. Analysts expect export figures to deteriorate as well. The first companies are already noticing the early signs of this trend in their order. For example, orders from European customers were down by a fifth in March year-on-year, Qi Yong, the CEO of Shenzhen-based electronics retailer Muchen Technology, told Reuters. rtr/fin

  • Coronavirus
  • Export
  • Health
  • Trade
  • Ukraine

Censors cut gay reference from ‘Secrets of Dumbledore’

China’s censorship authorities have removed references to a gay relationship in the movie “Fantastic Beasts: Dumbledore’s Secrets” for Chinese audiences. Six seconds of the movie were cut, according to media reports. In these, a romantic relationship is suggested between the characters Albus Dumbledore and Gellert Grindelwald. In the Chinese version, the line “because I was in love with you” has been cut out in the dialogue between the two characters. Another line “the summer Gellert and I fell in love” has also been cut. The characters are from author JK Rowling’s Harry Potter universe. In 2007, she had already declared that wizard Dumbledore was homosexual, but this was not addressed in the previous films. The production company Warner Bros. emphasized that despite the censorship, the “spirit of the film” remains intact. ari

  • Culture
  • Film
  • Society

Profile

Lillian Zhang – from journalism to hardware

Lillian Zhang, formerly at Bosch Stiftung, now ACSG + DELTA Systems

Two worlds combine in Lillian Zhang: “I’m a Hamburg native by choice, but in my heart, China is my home,” she says in her open, positive manner with an aura of deep satisfaction. With childlike enthusiasm, but the know-how and professionalism of a specialist, she talks about her fascinating career path.

While she was still attending school, she already decided to go to Germany. The decisive factor for this choice was an uncle who already lived in Hamburg. After graduating at the top of her class, she initially studied German for three semesters at Qingdao University in China, whose German studies enjoys an excellent reputation throughout China. All courses were taught in German by Chinese professors – this was her first contact with the language of her chosen homeland. This was followed by a visit to the Studienkolleg at Martin Luther University in Halle.

She then moved to Hamburg to study business administration. Her Chinese upbringing of discipline has always helped her pursue and achieve her goals, she says: “I was such an overachiever because I felt that was the only way I could achieve my dream.”

Getting to know the country and its people as a priority

Years later, when she visits her childhood hometown, she notices letters that she had previously overlooked for years. In her school days, she had helped her mother at the post office. And there, in large letters, was the inscription “German Imperial Post”. The port city of Yantai was a territory leased by the Chinese Empire to the German Empire in the early 20th century. That was probably her first subconscious bond with Germany, Zhang says today.

Another stop on her life’s journey was Northumbria University in the UK, where she studied International Business Management. Her father had already traveled a lot for his job in international trade, Zhang explains. And so she always wanted to venture out into the world. That hasn’t changed to this day: “I still want to see the world. You can always expand your horizons. You can always learn new things and meet new people. The world is so big and so diverse.”

She has particularly fond memories of the Media Ambassador Project, an exchange program for journalists organized by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Hamburg Media School. As part of the Media Ambassador Program, Chinese fellows are able to work in German media companies, while German participants are able to work in Chinese media in exchange.

Genuine contact with the country and its people is a high priority for Lillian Zhang. She has dedicated herself with all her heart to the ideal of international understanding through this project. “I think no job can fulfill a person more than when you have this feeling that you are doing something meaningful, you have a very high ideal, and you bring people together. You help people realize their dream.”

From journalism to e-commerce

The journalistic approach in Chinese and German media is similar, but the style in Germany is sharper, more critical and opinionated, while Chinese reporting is more descriptive and “milder in tone”. In addition, there are established standard media in Germany, such as Der Spiegel, Die Zeit, or Bild, which remain constant over a long period of time, while news in China is becoming increasingly diverse and is strongly distributed via the messenger app WeChat.

After the media ambassador program was shut down, Zhang devoted herself to the “fascinating world of goods” following her business studies. For several years, she worked in e-commerce. “In 2014, cross-border e-commerce took off in China. Chinese people started buying foreign goods online on Chinese websites.” Luxury items such as branded bags and watches were of particular interest, she said. “This was a whole new world for me because I used to focus on media, on people, on nonprofit projects, and now suddenly this was all commercial and for-profit.” Due to the Covid pandemic and accompanying logistics problems, Zhang once again changed her focus.

In the meantime, she has been working in sales at the technology company ACSG + DELTA Systems for just under half a year: “My career changed from people to hardware.” Her work here is extremely factual, she says, and she learns how various components and cables are put together. Her multiple career changes don’t bother her. On the contrary. She has always enjoyed exploring a new field. “I would always follow my gut these days. I think that you should just follow your heart and have a job that fits your current life situation.” Juliane Scholuebbers

  • Civil Society
  • Health
  • Industry

Executive Moves

Wu Xiangdong, co-chairman of struggling construction company China Fortune Land Development, resigns from his position on the board. China Fortune Land Development was unable to repay its loans last year (China.Table reported).

Heidi Liu started as Manager for Strategy/ Project Management Office (PMO) for China at Audi at the beginning of the month. Liu was previously Transformation & Process Consultant, also at Audi AG.

  • China Fortune Land Development

Dessert

Lamps decorated with bunnies. Who wouldn’t think of Easter? These pretty decorative objects, however, were made for the Lantern Festival in February. The festival gives a taste of the coming year. When the Year of the Rabbit dawns, there will be a Chinese-Western bunny rush in the spring.

China.Table editorial office

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    • Lockdown hinders corn planting in Jilin
    • Taipei works on defense strategy
    • Luckin grabs market share from Starbucks
    • Immigration: Shortened quarantine in several cities
    • Exports increased significantly in March
    • Censors cut new “Dumbledore” movie
    • Profile: Lillian Zhang – from journalism to hardware
    Dear reader,

    Amid the devastating zero-covid policy, there might now be a small ray of hope, at least for travelers from abroad: Eight cities are expected to shorten the mandatory quarantine after arrival. However, multiple PCR and antigen tests will still be required. Read more about this in today’s News section.

    An overall relaxation of the strict lockdown – which is still all but certain – may come too late for the northeastern province of Jilin. The region grows a particularly large amount of corn. But Beijing’s zero-covid policy could now cause the crop seeding to fail, writes Ning Wang. This is because corn grows only once a year and must be sown within a certain time period. And yet another problem threatens corn supplies: the war in Ukraine. Nearly a third of imported corn comes from Ukraine. Imports from there are now at risk.

    For Taiwan, Russia’s invasion of its neighbor is an even more ominous scenario. The island is on heightened alert, and expanding mandatory military service is currently under debate. Our colleague David Demes in Taiwan spoke with a reservist about his training and looked over the positions of military analysts. The latter warn that an extension of conscription and the training of civilians to use special weapons is not possible in the short term.

    Due to the holidays, you will receive the next issue of China.Table next Tuesday. We wish you a Happy Easter and some relaxing spring days.

    Your
    Amelie Richter
    Image of Amelie  Richter

    Feature

    Corn: Potential crop failure could impact global market

    A picture from better times: Corn harvest in Jilin in 2012

    Not just in Shanghai, but also in the province of Jilin, lockdowns have been in effect indefinitely for weeks now. This threatens to cause crop failures, which could further exacerbate the supply situation. Jilin, which is known for its highly fertile soils, accounts for about ten percent of the national corn harvest. Food prices, which have already climbed due to higher energy prices, could rise even further as a result of crop failures.

    Most recently, grain was already scarce in the country due to a particularly poor winter wheat harvest. As a result, Beijing now imports grain and stockpiles it in state granaries (China.Table reported). This shifts domestic shortages to the global market, where prices also rise. Now, something similar could happen with corn and its price on the global market.

    Experts suggest that the problems could be even more serious this time. Even Pay, an agriculture analyst at strategic consulting firm Trivium China, points out that corn grows only once a year and must be planted in a specific time period – usually within the two weeks between the end of April and the beginning of May, which will now be affected by the lockdown. Pay warns of significant crop losses.

    Beijing makes grain sowing a top priority

    Leaders in Beijing also appear alarmed by the side effect of the self-imposed lockdowns. Issues with food supplies not only cause unrest among the urban population. It deprives the rural population of their livelihoods. Vice Premier Hu Chunhua reacted immediately and assembled a conference call to secure corn and rice production.

    Addressing national regulators and officials from the affected provinces, Hu strongly stressed that spring planting must proceed without any problems. He further urged officials to ensure that the nationwide COVID-19 measures do not “disrupt” agricultural production.

    This is because corn, which comes from Jilin, is not only vital to provide food for China’s urban population, but also as livestock feed. Experts from Trivium China believe that 60 percent of all corn is used as animal feed, and Hu will therefore strongly regulate the use of corn as fuel in this difficult year.

    Beijing had opened its state corn reserves between the years 2015 to 2018, as corn was available in abundance. This favored the development of a separate industry for corn processing. But those reserves are now depleted. Now, the former corn blessing proves to be a curse. This is because corn was also processed into cheap industrial alcohol. These companies are still around and, in addition to the food and agricultural sectors, are further driving the demand for corn.

    Ukraine was important corn supplier for China

    The war in Ukraine is adding to the woes. According to the business magazine Caixin, 29 percent of imported corn is imported from Ukraine. The majority of corn imports are used primarily in animal feed processing. As a result, among the three major staple foods (corn, wheat, rice), the volume of corn and wheat imports increased dramatically.

    China tries to secure its supply by purchasing corn from the United States. According to the US Department of Agriculture, Beijing bought more than one million tons of American corn in early April. This was the largest corn purchase in the US since May 2021.

    Even if it seems like just a precautionary measure, China’s dependence on imports has long been a thorn in the side of state and party leader Xi Jinping. Back in 2018, during one of his many inspection tours across the country, Xi said, “Chinese people’s rice bowls must always be held firmly in our own hands, and should be full mainly of Chinese grain.” The problem has spread from rice and wheat to corn. The CP has long recognized the importance of food security and issues regulation after regulation. At the heart of the measures are subsidies for rice, wheat and corn cultivation. But China’s Covid measures jeopardize the effectiveness of these programs.

    Thus, fertilizer bottlenecks affect supply just as much as farm labor shortages. “Fertilizer production, in particular, is very energy-intensive,” Pay of Trivium China recently told Sixth Tone. Due to power shortages in recent years, production has been curtailed. This now compounds the current cluster of problems.

    Accordingly, Vice Premier Hu Chunhua was quite clear during his telephone conference: “Make sure that farmers get the fertilizers and pesticides they need at a reasonable price,” Hu said. However, experts and farmers doubt that his pithy orders can be carried out in time.

    • Agriculture
    • Coronavirus
    • Health
    • Nutrition

    In Ukraine’s shadow: Taiwan rethinks its strategy

    Taiwan’s military has published an emergency manual for the first time. Shown here is the digital version.

    On 28 pages, Taiwanese citizens are prepared for an emergency: Where are fallout shelters located, how do sirens differ, and what should be stockpiled as emergency supplies? Earlier this week, Taiwan’s military published its first-ever handbook to help civilians prepare for a potential Chinese invasion. The manual is intended to raise awareness of how to respond to and survive emergency situations, said Liu Tai-yi (劉泰益) of the Ministry of Defense.

    Taiwan closely monitors the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Back in late January, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) instructed the National Security Council to establish a task force on the situation in Ukraine. Although her government repeatedly stresses that Taiwan’s situation is not comparable to that in Ukraine, there is great concern that China may feel encouraged in its efforts to finally take military action on Taiwan.

    As recently as early March, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) warned in a report to parliament that the war in Ukraine could not only jeopardize the strategic balance in Europe, but could also affect the situation in the Indo-Pacific and security in the Taiwan Strait. It is not surprising that Taiwan is currently revising its defense strategy. Even the reintroduction of conscription is being discussed.

    Volunteer army with organizational problems

    Since 2000, the originally two-year basic military service had been gradually shortened. In 2013, military service (現役) was then discontinued altogether and replaced by four months of military training (軍事訓練) for all draft-eligible men born in 1994 or later. The training consists of five weeks of basic training and eleven weeks of special basic training. Those who successfully finish training are considered reservists until they reach the age of 36 and can be drafted in the event of war. About 15 percent are also called up for refresher crash courses at regular intervals to ensure operational readiness.

    Despite numerous incentives, finding enough volunteer recruits has become a major issue since the armed forces were transformed into a volunteer army in 2018. The operational capability of the reserve is also constantly being called into question. At a US Congressional hearing in February 2021, military expert Michael Hunzeker stated, “there is a strong consensus among analysts and expert observers that absent a major reform, Taiwan’s reserve force will prove ineffective against all-out invasion.” Fortunately, reserve reform was a top priority for the Tsai government, Hunzeker added.

    Live-fire training and loaded marching

    Indeed, the refresher training for reservists was revised from the ground up and presented to the public for the first time at the beginning of the year. Instead of five to seven days, reservists now have to spend 14 days straight at training camp. China.Table spoke to one of the first reservists who took part in what is said to be the “toughest training in the history” of the Taiwanese reserve.

    28-year-old Sean Yang is actually a psychologist, but when he puts on his uniform, he becomes a combat medic. He reports that the new training is much more extensive than before: “Three days of live-fire exercises, three days of loaded marching. The rest of the time we trained who takes which role in the squad, so that in an emergency everyone knows what to do.” The reservists spent part of their training not in the barracks, but outdoors, in community centers and schools. In places where they would be deployed in the event of war.

    “During training, I was shown for the first time what piece of land I would have to defend in the event of war. What it looks like there, what infrastructure there is, what the environment is like, where I can seek shelter and get supplies. I didn’t know all that before.” It was only through the new training, he says, that he felt he could really use his home advantage in a fight.

    Sean had already completed his four months of basic military training in 2016. So an extension would not affect him. Nevertheless, he believes that four months is sufficient – if it is used to its fullest extent. “There’s still a lot of time wasted. You often have to wait a long time between exercises,” Sean says.

    Minister of Defense Chiu, meanwhile, announced that a decision on conscription would be made this year and any change to the service period would be announced at least twelve months before it comes into effect. So major changes are not expected before 2024. DPP deputy Lo Chih-Cheng (羅致政) pointed out that a legislative amendment would not even be required to reinstate one-year conscription. “If these twelve months are to be like the [four-month] military training in substance, then the law needs to be revised after all,” Lo told United Daily News.

    Military analyst: extension of conscription hardly practicable

    However, the extension of mandatory military service is not just a matter of whether the law needs to be amended. In fact, multiple factors are involved in this decision. Military analyst Lin Ping-yu (林秉宥) believes that an extension is hardly feasible logistically and financially. Speaking to China.Table, he points out that the spatial capacities alone are no longer sufficient for this: “Over the years, our army has been steadily reduced in size, from one million to less than 200,000 soldiers. During that period, many areas and barracks used for military purposes have been abandoned, revitalized and made available to the public.” If troop strength were to be increased again now, there would be not enough room or logistics to accommodate and supply this many recruits at one time. Training capacity itself is also a bottleneck that would be difficult to address in the short term.

    Keven Yu (于北辰), retired Army general, was in charge of turning the armed forces into a professional army at the Ministry of Defense. He, too, publicly opposes a return to one-year mandatory military service. What matters is not just the size of the force, but the quality and extent of basic training, Yu said on the TV program PTSTalk. “Highly advanced and high-precision weapon systems such as tanks, aircraft and Patriot missiles can only be operated by professional soldiers. You can’t learn that at all in under a year.” Reservists could be trained to fire Javelins and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in a very short time in the event of war, because such systems would not require much training.

    Following the successful use of such one-man surface-to-air missiles (English: MANPADS) against the Russian air force and armored units in Ukraine, several Taiwanese MPs called on the Ministry of Defense in a motion to integrate such weapon systems into reservist training. However, at the Defense Ministry’s request, the reference to MANPADS was replaced with a more general term. Reservists are now to be integrated into the “air defense of the armed forces” and trained in it.

    Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) made it clear that Taiwan was ready to defend itself. “China will understand it will pay a very heavy price if it initiates conflict against Taiwan,” he warned Beijing. David Demes

    • Geopolitics
    • Military
    • Taiwan
    • Ukraine

    Luckin Coffee triumphs over Starbucks

    Coffee has gone from being a luxury drink to an everyday commodity in China’s big cities. Especially metropolises like Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen are dotted with coffee shops. Chinese coffee consumption has been steadily growing for years, and it is hardly surprising that China has become Starbucks’ second-largest market after the domestic US market. In 1999, the Seattle-based company opened its first branch in China and claims to now operate more than 5,400 stores in over 230 cities in China.

    However, figures recently announced by CEO Kevin Johnson were not particularly pleasing. Sales were down 14 percent, which is surprising considering a worldwide increase of 13 percent. The so-called “same-store sales” compare the turnover of stores that were already open a year ago with this year’s figures. Profits generated by newly opened branches are excluded.

    The main reason for the decrease in Starbucks’ business despite a higher coffee thirst is the rise of domestic competitors. Luckin Coffee, Starbucks’ biggest competitor, was only founded in 2017 and quickly attracted attention with coffee at competitive prices, a consistent online ordering system and a focus on implementing new technology.

    It took the US chain about two years to respond to the challenge posed by Luckin Coffee with a new type of store. These new stores are called “Starbucks Now”. They are much smaller than normal Starbucks stores and (like Luckin Coffee) focus primarily on online orders.

    Luckin even recovered from a massive accounting scandal

    This allowed Starbucks to take some wind out of the sails of Luckin Coffee’s business model. Fortunately for Starbucks, Luckin Coffee’s stellar rise was followed by an equally steep fall after it was revealed that its balance sheet had been inflated by more than $300 million. Shares of the Chinese coffee chain, which at the time was well on its way to overtaking Starbucks in the total number of stores in China, first crashed and were eventually excluded from trading on NASDAQ (China.Table reported).

    It seemed as if Starbucks had gotten off lightly and would continue to dominate the Chinese coffee market. But the Chinese competitor had not completely vanished. And now, it is back stronger than ever.

    Luckin Coffee paid the $180 million penalty and restructured. Its management team was replaced and its expansion policy was scaled back in favor of higher quality. New products like a coconut milk latte were introduced and quickly became hit sellers.

    With recently published figures, Luckin Coffee is now back on track. The chain reported a sales increase of more than 97 percent to ¥8 billion (more than $1 billion) in 2021. Hidden in the presentation was an explosive detail: Luckin Coffee has now surpassed Starbucks in total store count. The Chinese chain now operates more than 6,000 shops across China. At the same time, Luckin Coffee is trying to get back into NASDAQ.

    Global corporation Starbucks struggles to keep up in China

    Starbucks does everything in its power to stay in the game. Since February, the company has also been officially available on Meituan, China’s largest food delivery app, and plans to list all of its stores individually on the app. The service has been expanded for this purpose and now also offers the option of booking coffee experience evenings or renting entire stores. In addition, Starbucks China focuses on even more diverse services with Starbucks Reserve stores (a kind of premium Starbucks where customers can choose their own coffee beans) and Bar Mixato stores (a mix between coffee shop and bar).

    Chinese customers are very demanding and require a high level of comfort. Companies that want to survive in this market have to be competitive on all levels. Visibility on the market and constant re-invention have become essential. A phenomenon that is not limited to the coffee shop business alone. This forces companies to innovate, which they can also transfer to other markets.

    So the fight for the top goes into the next round. However, both companies have one thing in common. Although Luckin Coffee is slightly cheaper than Starbucks, the Chinese rival has abandoned its former competitive prices. Both companies now compete in roughly the same price range of about ¥26 (Luckin Coffee) or ¥30 (Starbucks) for a cup of coffee. Gregor Koppenburg/Joern Petring

    • Meituan
    • Society

    News

    Entry from abroad: shortening of quarantine in several cities

    China has eased quarantine regulations for travelers entering the country from abroad as part of a pilot program in several cities. The quarantine for travelers from foreign countries abroad has been shortened from 14 to 10 days, Caixin reported, citing government documents from the State Council. After 10 days, individuals then must spend another week under observation at home. Within these 17 days, six PCR and six antigen tests are required.

    According to the report, these pilot programs have already started on Monday. They are planned to run for the next four weeks in Dalian, Shanghai, Suzhou, Ningbo, Xiamen, Qingdao, Guangzhou and Chengdu. However, Reuters cited hotel employees in affected cities who have not yet been informed of the changes.

    In pilot cities, the eased requirements also apply to close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases. In eight cities, lockdowns of housing units will now be lifted within ten days after the last positive case occurs. So far, this has been 14 days. The pilot project is intended to help authorities better understand how antigen testing can be used in pandemic control and better determine the duration of isolation, Caixin said.

    China reported nearly 28,000 new infection cases on Wednesday, with the vast majority in Shanghai. The metropolis reported a new high of 26,330 new infections on Tuesday. While curfews have been relaxed in some parts of the city (China.Table reported), most of Shanghai remains under strict lockdown. ari

    • Coronavirus
    • Health

    Exports rise despite all problems

    Despite the war in Ukraine and the lockdown in Shanghai, Chinese exports have been surprisingly strong in March. Exports increased by almost 15 percent compared to March last year. This means that there was no decrease, which economists had actually expected in light of the turmoil on the global market.

    However, the developments of the past two months left their mark. Imports declined for the first time in a year and a half, albeit only marginally. China procures fewer goods from abroad due to Covid and the resulting lockdowns.

    However, the March figures are only a snapshot. Analysts expect export figures to deteriorate as well. The first companies are already noticing the early signs of this trend in their order. For example, orders from European customers were down by a fifth in March year-on-year, Qi Yong, the CEO of Shenzhen-based electronics retailer Muchen Technology, told Reuters. rtr/fin

    • Coronavirus
    • Export
    • Health
    • Trade
    • Ukraine

    Censors cut gay reference from ‘Secrets of Dumbledore’

    China’s censorship authorities have removed references to a gay relationship in the movie “Fantastic Beasts: Dumbledore’s Secrets” for Chinese audiences. Six seconds of the movie were cut, according to media reports. In these, a romantic relationship is suggested between the characters Albus Dumbledore and Gellert Grindelwald. In the Chinese version, the line “because I was in love with you” has been cut out in the dialogue between the two characters. Another line “the summer Gellert and I fell in love” has also been cut. The characters are from author JK Rowling’s Harry Potter universe. In 2007, she had already declared that wizard Dumbledore was homosexual, but this was not addressed in the previous films. The production company Warner Bros. emphasized that despite the censorship, the “spirit of the film” remains intact. ari

    • Culture
    • Film
    • Society

    Profile

    Lillian Zhang – from journalism to hardware

    Lillian Zhang, formerly at Bosch Stiftung, now ACSG + DELTA Systems

    Two worlds combine in Lillian Zhang: “I’m a Hamburg native by choice, but in my heart, China is my home,” she says in her open, positive manner with an aura of deep satisfaction. With childlike enthusiasm, but the know-how and professionalism of a specialist, she talks about her fascinating career path.

    While she was still attending school, she already decided to go to Germany. The decisive factor for this choice was an uncle who already lived in Hamburg. After graduating at the top of her class, she initially studied German for three semesters at Qingdao University in China, whose German studies enjoys an excellent reputation throughout China. All courses were taught in German by Chinese professors – this was her first contact with the language of her chosen homeland. This was followed by a visit to the Studienkolleg at Martin Luther University in Halle.

    She then moved to Hamburg to study business administration. Her Chinese upbringing of discipline has always helped her pursue and achieve her goals, she says: “I was such an overachiever because I felt that was the only way I could achieve my dream.”

    Getting to know the country and its people as a priority

    Years later, when she visits her childhood hometown, she notices letters that she had previously overlooked for years. In her school days, she had helped her mother at the post office. And there, in large letters, was the inscription “German Imperial Post”. The port city of Yantai was a territory leased by the Chinese Empire to the German Empire in the early 20th century. That was probably her first subconscious bond with Germany, Zhang says today.

    Another stop on her life’s journey was Northumbria University in the UK, where she studied International Business Management. Her father had already traveled a lot for his job in international trade, Zhang explains. And so she always wanted to venture out into the world. That hasn’t changed to this day: “I still want to see the world. You can always expand your horizons. You can always learn new things and meet new people. The world is so big and so diverse.”

    She has particularly fond memories of the Media Ambassador Project, an exchange program for journalists organized by the Robert Bosch Foundation and the Hamburg Media School. As part of the Media Ambassador Program, Chinese fellows are able to work in German media companies, while German participants are able to work in Chinese media in exchange.

    Genuine contact with the country and its people is a high priority for Lillian Zhang. She has dedicated herself with all her heart to the ideal of international understanding through this project. “I think no job can fulfill a person more than when you have this feeling that you are doing something meaningful, you have a very high ideal, and you bring people together. You help people realize their dream.”

    From journalism to e-commerce

    The journalistic approach in Chinese and German media is similar, but the style in Germany is sharper, more critical and opinionated, while Chinese reporting is more descriptive and “milder in tone”. In addition, there are established standard media in Germany, such as Der Spiegel, Die Zeit, or Bild, which remain constant over a long period of time, while news in China is becoming increasingly diverse and is strongly distributed via the messenger app WeChat.

    After the media ambassador program was shut down, Zhang devoted herself to the “fascinating world of goods” following her business studies. For several years, she worked in e-commerce. “In 2014, cross-border e-commerce took off in China. Chinese people started buying foreign goods online on Chinese websites.” Luxury items such as branded bags and watches were of particular interest, she said. “This was a whole new world for me because I used to focus on media, on people, on nonprofit projects, and now suddenly this was all commercial and for-profit.” Due to the Covid pandemic and accompanying logistics problems, Zhang once again changed her focus.

    In the meantime, she has been working in sales at the technology company ACSG + DELTA Systems for just under half a year: “My career changed from people to hardware.” Her work here is extremely factual, she says, and she learns how various components and cables are put together. Her multiple career changes don’t bother her. On the contrary. She has always enjoyed exploring a new field. “I would always follow my gut these days. I think that you should just follow your heart and have a job that fits your current life situation.” Juliane Scholuebbers

    • Civil Society
    • Health
    • Industry

    Executive Moves

    Wu Xiangdong, co-chairman of struggling construction company China Fortune Land Development, resigns from his position on the board. China Fortune Land Development was unable to repay its loans last year (China.Table reported).

    Heidi Liu started as Manager for Strategy/ Project Management Office (PMO) for China at Audi at the beginning of the month. Liu was previously Transformation & Process Consultant, also at Audi AG.

    • China Fortune Land Development

    Dessert

    Lamps decorated with bunnies. Who wouldn’t think of Easter? These pretty decorative objects, however, were made for the Lantern Festival in February. The festival gives a taste of the coming year. When the Year of the Rabbit dawns, there will be a Chinese-Western bunny rush in the spring.

    China.Table editorial office

    CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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