On Saturday, Chinese culture welcomes the Year of the Dragon. The only mythical animal of the zodiac signs is also the most popular. This will almost certainly lead to an increase in the number of children in the dawning lunar year, as parents who believe in horoscopes want to provide their offspring the best possible start to life with a well-timed birth.
However, the Dragon will not be able to solve the demographic problem of the People’s Republic, writes Felix Lee – births will not increase, they will only shift. This is because the previous Year of the Rabbit and the next Year of the Snake promise less energetic and powerful people – and are likely to become comparatively weak birth years.
Not dragons, but at least giraffes are involved in a farce inspired by the poor economic mood in China and the simultaneous downturn in the stock markets. After all, the highly speculative stock market situation is usually detached from the normal economy. Read in today’s China Perspective why the situation is different at the moment, why the Chinese are venting their anger on the US embassy’s Weibo channel, and how all this is connected to long-necked cloven-hoofed animals and German communist
Happy New Year of the Dragon – regardless of your zodiac sign!
Your Carolyn Braun
Feature
German partnership with Mongolia: a clear signal to China and Russia
Federal President Steinmeier and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh during a welcome ceremony on Sukhbaatar Square in Ulaanbaatar on Wednesday.
There’s a cold wind blowing in the German President’s face this Thursday in the Mongolian capital, Ulaanbaatar. It is minus 24 degrees – and the symbolism could hardly be more fitting. The democracies of this world also face an icy wind. It is blowing from Beijing and Moscow – and is set to blow away the Westernized order: Russia quite openly with its war of aggression against Ukraine, China far more subtly with economic power and global initiatives.
In this situation, Germany wants to make a strong geopolitical statement – and signed a strategic partnership with democratic Mongolia. The aim is to achieve ambitious goals in several areas:
Diplomacy: Closer cooperation is planned, both bilaterally and internationally at the United Nations.
Economy: Mongolia is rich in raw materials such as copper, gold and rare earths – which Germany urgently needs, in part to reduce its dependence on China.
Climate action: Mongolia is predestined for the expansion of solar and wind power.
Military: Among other things, Germany wants to train Mongolian mountain troops.
And last but not least, geopolitics: the aim here is to strengthen democratic Mongolia against its authoritarian neighbors China and Russia.
This is the first time Mongolia has signed such a high-level agreement with a European state. For the German President, it is about nothing less than democracy, the rule of law and the preservation of the international order with the UN Charter at its core. According to Frank-Walter Steinmeier, only this order guarantees nations their independence, sovereignty, and the security of their international borders. “This strategic partnership therefore sends out a clear signal.” The addressees are very close by, bordering Mongolia directly: China and Russia.
Mongolia is dependent on China and Russia
There are few other countries where the fault line between democracy and autocracy is as clearly visible as on Mongolia’s borders. With Russia to the north and China to the south, Mongolia is not only geographically in a kind of headlock. Mongolia’s dependence on its two neighbors is almost overwhelming: 98 percent of its energy comes from Russia, while 90 percent of Mongolian exports go to China.
“The strategic partnership is a very important step,” Gantulga Tuvshinzaya told Table.Media. “It gives Mongolia the much-needed breathing room in its very complicated geopolitical environment between China and Russia,” explains the Nonresident Fellow of the Mongolian National Institute for Security Studies.
China and Russia increase pressure on Mongolia
China and Russia are increasingly using their influence as leverage. When Ulaanbaatar negotiated with France over the supply of uranium to reduce its energy dependency on Moscow, Russia suddenly severely curtailed its energy exports. A similar situation happened in China: After the Dalai Lama visited Mongolia, China increased the pressure until the government in Ulaanbaatar promised not to invite the religious leader of the Tibetans ever again. The Dalai Lama is also the head of the predominantly Buddhist Mongolians.
For a long time, China and Russia were in direct competition with each other. Mongolia was thus repeatedly able to play off the interests of the two superpowers against each other and maintain a certain balance.
Germany as a third neighbor
There is also a third pillar of Mongolian foreign policy: the concept of the “third neighbor.” This means Mongolia is actively looking for like-minded neighbors beyond its geographical neighbors, China and Russia.
Apart from the global superpower USA and neighboring countries Japan and South Korea, this is primarily Germany. The relationship between Mongolia and Germany is longer and more diverse than the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations might suggest.
Mongolia’s leeway is shrinking
This third-neighbor policy has become increasingly important – especially since China and Russia have promised themselves a “borderless friendship” under Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The new closeness between Beijing and Moscow also has consequences for Mongolia.
In July, Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov traveled to Beijing and announced that he and his Chinese counterpart had agreed to counteract the growing Western influence on their “inner neighbor” Mongolia. Since then, Mongolia’s opportunities to capitalize on any differences between its neighbors have dwindled considerably.
Not forcing Mongolia to pick a side
In this environment, Germany is a very welcome partner. However, despite all the enthusiasm, a serious mistake should be avoided, one that particularly the United States often makes in its geopolitical plans. “I hope that Germany will not demand that Mongolia pick a side in the geopolitical dispute,” explains Tuvshinzaya. “We cannot completely turn our backs on China and Russia.”
Mongolia has basically already made up its mind with its constitution. Or, in the words of former US Secretary of State John Kerry: “Mongolia is an oasis of democracy in Asia.”
The partnership needs substance
Rather, the task now is to fill the strategic partnership with substance. However, Viktor Frank is only “cautiously optimistic” at this point. The head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ulaanbaatar explains in an interview with Table.Media: “Huge infrastructure investments are required to actually develop Mongolia’s rich raw materials. In addition, projects by German companies would then have to be politically flanked by Hermes guarantees or agreements on the legal protection of such investments.”
The German President seems to be aware of this. In any case, Steinmeier assured the Mongolian Prime Minister: “We don’t just want to sign papers, we also want to make concrete policy.” If this succeeds, this trip would indeed send out an important geopolitical signal.
Climate & Environment
Energy
Geopolitics
Technology
Trade
Year of the Dragon promises a baby boom – but only for a short time
China expects a baby boom in 2024: children born in the Year of the Dragon are considered charismatic and self-confident.
In the West, we know the dragon as a fire-breathing monster that spreads fear and terror. In the Far East, however, the dragon is associated with a wise, benevolent and divine mythical creature that protects against evil spirits.
When around 1.5 billion people from Chinese culture around the world celebrate the new Year of the Dragon on Saturday night, they will be welcoming a particularly promising year from their perspective. The dragon has always had a deep symbolism in Chinese culture and is not only the symbol of the ancient emperors. The dragon year also promises luck, success, prosperity – and many children.
At least, that was the case in the past Dragon years. According to Chinese astrology, children born in the Year of the Dragon are considered charismatic, determined and self-confident and are said to be blessed with wisdom. They bring joy to the whole family. And because the Year of the Dragon is also associated with the element of wood this time, 2024 promises to be a year of growth and development. This also evokes positive associations in China.
Birthrates rose sharply
When the Year of the Dragon was last celebrated twelve years ago, birth rates in China, Taiwan and other countries with a large Chinese population, such as Singapore and Malaysia, rose sharply. In the Year of the Dragon 2000, for example, Hong Kong registered 5.6 percent more births than in the year before. In the Chinese-dominated city-state of Singapore, where the fertility rate has been around 1.1 children per woman for decades, births in the Dragon Years 2000 and 1988 increased by more than ten percent compared to the respective previous years, and in Taiwan by over 13 percent. There were also more marriages in the Year of the Dragon than in the years before or after.
Communist Party leadership has high hopes for 2024
The Chinese leadership particularly hopes that belief in the Chinese horoscope will lead to a real baby boom in 2024. China has a huge demographic problem. The one-child policy, which only allowed married couples in China to have one child for over 30 years, was abolished in 2015. However, the number of births has continued to fall for years. Just at the beginning of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the population of the People’s Republic had shrunk for the second year in a row in 2023, namely, by two million. The leadership is particularly alarmed by the pace. While around 18 million children were born in 2016, there were only half as many last year. Since last year, China is no longer the most populous country in the world. This title went to India.
But even if there is a high probability that the Year of the Dragon 2024 will see a baby boom and more children will be born in China than in previous years: This will not reverse the fundamental trend. And that is: shrinkage.
No general reversal
In the last Dragon Year, 2012, the increase in the number of children born was around five percent. However, the birth rate in the year before, which is dedicated to the rabbit, was even lower. And in the year after that, the Year of the Snake, an above-average number of children were born. Many young couples had deliberately timed their child’s conception to coincide with the year of the dragon. This evened out over a three-year period. This time is unlikely to be any different.
Fertility clinics and the baby food, toy and children’s clothing industries in China have been campaigning for more pregnancies on the internet and in glossy magazines for months. However, this advertising trend will likely be over by late spring at the latest.
According to medical calculations, a child should be conceived by May 17 so that it sees the light of day before the end of the lunar year on January 28, 2025. Because by then, the Year of the Dragon will already be over. And the snake is not so popular with parents-to-be.
Demographics
Ein-Kind-Politik
Events
Feb. 12, 2024; 6 p.m. CET (Feb. 13, 1:00 a.m. CST) Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Talk (also via Zoom):Craig Allen – China’s Economic Development Model: Implications for US-Japan RelationsMore
Feb. 14, 2024; 2:30 p.m. CET (9:30 p.m. CST) CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, Webcast:Building International Support for Taiwan – Report LaunchMore
Feb 20, 2024 9:30 p.m. CET (Feb 21, 4:30 a.m. CST) Center for Strategic & International Studies CSIS, Webcast:A Conversation with US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield on U.S. Diplomacy in the Pacific IslandsMore
Feb 21, 2024 2:30 a.m. CET (9:30 a.m. CST) Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Urban China Lecture Series (also via Zoom):Shawn SK Teo – Two Experiments in Theorizing (with) Urban ChinaMore
News
China’s consumer prices suffer biggest fall in 14 years
The steep fall of China’s consumer prices fuels fears of an economically harmful deflationary spiral. At the beginning of the year, they fell for the fourth time in a row and more sharply than at any time in over 14 years: at 0.8 percent, the decline was the sharpest since September 2009, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday. Producer prices are also falling. The corresponding PPI index fell by 2.5 percent in January compared to the previous year.
While high inflation chips away at consumers’ purchasing power in most developed countries, deflation in China fuels consumer restraint. This could trigger a devastating economic downward spiral. The People’s Republic was unable to revive the economy after the end of the pandemic measures at the end of 2022. This is partly due to the still-simmering property crisis and the problems exporters face. Although the economy grew by 5.2 percent in 2023, thus reaching the official target of around five percent, the road to recovery has been bumpy, with consumption, in particular, failing to take off.
The official growth target for the current year is expected to be announced at the opening of the National People’s Congress – the annual parliamentary session of the communist-ruled country. If, as in 2023, the CCP targets growth of around five percent, many observers believe this would be quite ambitious – even if the government and central bank were to inject new stimulus into the economy.
The central bank recently lowered the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks – by half a percentage point. The reduction will release around one trillion yuan (equivalent to around 128 billion euros) in liquidity for the financial system. The dilemma for the central bank is that the interest rate cuts, which are intended to stimulate the economy, could accelerate the price slump. Experts point out that a large proportion of the loans are being channeled into the infrastructure sector and also into overcapacity, which could build up further deflationary pressure. rtr
Geldpolitik
Siemens hopes for an upswing in the second half of the year
Siemens battles the economic slowdown in China. This is the reason why the German technology group’s flagship, the Digital Industries (DI) automation division, showed unusual weaknesses in the first quarter of the 2023/24 fiscal year (as of the end of September). As purchases in the factory automation sector in the People’s Republic slumped by 55 percent, offsetting growth in the mobility and industrial sectors, Siemens’ order intake largely stagnated in the first quarter of the fiscal year.
It could take until the second half of the year for clients in China to clear their warehouses, said Siemens CEO Roland Busch on Thursday before the Annual General Meeting in Munich. How long exactly will become clearer in a few weeks, added CFO Ralf Thomas. However, they claimed that the low point had been overcome.
Demand in China for building and infrastructure technology is also sluggish. Neither of the two sees Siemens’ targets in danger. The company left its outlook for the DI division and the group as a whole unchanged. “The Chinese market is still very slow,” said CEO Roland Busch told Bloomberg Television “We hope that we will see a pick-up in China in the second half of the year.”
“Siemens again delivered a strong quarter, maintaining a trajectory of profitable growth,” said CEO Busch. Between October and December, sales increased by six percent to 18.4 billion euros. Contrary to analysts’ expectations, order intake increased by two percent to 22.3 billion euros. At 2.55 billion euros, net profit was even significantly higher than forecast. Siemens also owed the jump in profits to a special income of 479 million euros from the transfer of a package of Siemens Energy shares to its own pension fund. cyb/rtr
Unternehmen
Human rights activist: China forces Tibetans as young as four into boarding schools
According to human rights activists, the Chinese government forces more than 80 percent of Tibetan children into boarding schools. The Protestant Press Agency (epd) quotes the Society for Threatened Peoples as saying that children as young as four are often separated from their parents for months because state boarding schools are located hundreds of kilometers away from their home villages. In total, hundreds of thousands of children between the ages of four and six have to attend boarding schools with the aim of cutting them off from their language and Tibetan identity.
When the children return home from boarding school after months of separation, they often only speak Mandarin and refuse to speak Tibetan, the Society for Threatened Peoples reported, according to epd. The Buddhist traditions of their parents and grandparents then no longer seemed to interest them. flee
Children
Human Rights
Kinder
Tibet
Opinion
How the German communist Renate Koppe made a fool of herself in China
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2865.90 on February 8, the last trading session before the Year of Dragon starts. The index soared 5 percent in the last week with strong government intervention but slid 12 percent for the whole lunar year.
China’s highly speculative stock market has stayed unrelated to the country’s economic performance for most of the time in its history of 33 years. But in the past year, the market mood was exceptionally in line with what people felt about the economy as all the indices spiraled down.
After authorities realized late last year that they needed to act to boost confidence in economic prospects, senior officials, including Premier Li Qiang, promised “more forceful, effective measures to promote capital market’s stable development.” A spate of steps has been taken, including an increase in liquidity. But they failed to drive away the gloom surrounding the market, which seemed stuck on the plunging track.
Propaganda blunder angered investors
At this point, an article on the leading mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, turned investors’ pessimism into anger. In an interview with the People’s Daily published on February 2, Renate Koppe, international secretary of the German Communist Party’s central committee, said she saw “an entire country permeated with an optimistic atmosphere” during her visit to China last year.
The quote, also used as the article’s title, made a perfect contrast with reality. It immediately went viral and galvanized the deeply offended stock investors. Assuming the social media page of the US embassy is relatively immune to censorship, they flocked to its account on Weibo, a popular Chinese platform similar to X.
Under an article on giraffe protection published on the same day, users wrote more than 160,000 pieces of comments by February 5. Most of them had nothing to do with the animal. Instead, they were about the stock market. The most provocative ones included calls for the US Securities and Exchanges Commission to take over the Chinese market, an appeal that the US save some missiles to bomb the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and a promise to lead the way when the US army invades China.
Unhealthy stock market
China accounted for nearly 20 percent of the total capitalization of the global stock markets in 2015. Its share had tumbled to around 10 percent now. The number of active investors in China’s two bourses is estimated to be between 20 million and 30 million. But the market has never been a place for fair trading and a place hosting a reasonable number of companies generating decent dividends. The most famous criticism is from renowned economist Wu Jinglian, who compared the market to a poorly managed casino.
Among the 4,876 companies ever listed in the market, only 0.5 percent of them have generated net wealth for investors, research by Hong Kong-based Forthright Financial Holdings has found. Still, many investors believe they would be smart or lucky enough to believe others. According to the same report, only 0.5 percent of investors made money. And now they blamed the authorities for the money they had lost.
The mockery continues
Stock investors were not the only unhappy group during the past year. The vast majority of Chinese have been disgruntled for economic or political reasons. Complaints by the stock investors, which became particularly loud towards the end of the lunar calendar, added yet another layer to the frustrations.
The People’s Daily article also attracted many with no investment in the stock market. Myriads of parodic quips were created to mock the propaganda piece, the most popular being, “The entire giraffe community is permeated by an optimistic atmosphere.”
Respite created for a happy Chinese New Year.
Censors eventually acted, banning topics with the “optimistic atmosphere” label. Trolls were mobilized to post comments lauding “Sino-US friendship.” Comments over the stock market on the US embassy’s Weibo page were deleted, which triggered some persistent critics’ move to the Indian embassy’s account to continue with the grumbles.
On February 6, the Central Huijin Investment, a subsidiary of the sovereign fund China Investment Corp, announced it would increase its holding of Chinese shares, sending the Shanghai market to soar by more than 3 percent.
On February 7, a heavyweight scapegoat for market losses was chosen as chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, was unexpectedly sacked. On the same day, Bloomberg reported that Xi Jinping himself was concerned about the situation of the stock market.
The market continued to gain ground in the year’s last two trading days, offering some hope for the new lunar year, hopefully not false hope.
Gesellschaft
Executive Moves
Cliff Sims, former Deputy Director of National Intelligence during the Trump Administration, has been appointed as a member of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission by Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson.
Luo Yizhou has been President of the oil and gas trading unit PetroChina International since last month. Luo, who started out as a crude oil trader at the oil company, most recently served as Vice President.
Is something changing in your organization? Let us know at heads@table.media!
Dessert
The dragon has become an overused symbol of China’s rise, especially in the media. It is said to symbolize strength, but also imminent danger. Countless magazines and book covers are proof of this.
Journalist and illustrator Selina Lee calls this “authorientalism” and uses it to describe a visual language that combines orientalism and authoritarianism without reflection. The dragon’s often red and yellow color scheme frequently overshoots the mark, for example, when the mythical creature is given a camera head to illustrate surveillance in the People’s Republic. This lumps together Chinese culture and politics with clichés that, unfortunately, still sell well in 2024.
On Saturday, Chinese culture welcomes the Year of the Dragon. The only mythical animal of the zodiac signs is also the most popular. This will almost certainly lead to an increase in the number of children in the dawning lunar year, as parents who believe in horoscopes want to provide their offspring the best possible start to life with a well-timed birth.
However, the Dragon will not be able to solve the demographic problem of the People’s Republic, writes Felix Lee – births will not increase, they will only shift. This is because the previous Year of the Rabbit and the next Year of the Snake promise less energetic and powerful people – and are likely to become comparatively weak birth years.
Not dragons, but at least giraffes are involved in a farce inspired by the poor economic mood in China and the simultaneous downturn in the stock markets. After all, the highly speculative stock market situation is usually detached from the normal economy. Read in today’s China Perspective why the situation is different at the moment, why the Chinese are venting their anger on the US embassy’s Weibo channel, and how all this is connected to long-necked cloven-hoofed animals and German communist
Happy New Year of the Dragon – regardless of your zodiac sign!
Your Carolyn Braun
Feature
German partnership with Mongolia: a clear signal to China and Russia
Federal President Steinmeier and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh during a welcome ceremony on Sukhbaatar Square in Ulaanbaatar on Wednesday.
There’s a cold wind blowing in the German President’s face this Thursday in the Mongolian capital, Ulaanbaatar. It is minus 24 degrees – and the symbolism could hardly be more fitting. The democracies of this world also face an icy wind. It is blowing from Beijing and Moscow – and is set to blow away the Westernized order: Russia quite openly with its war of aggression against Ukraine, China far more subtly with economic power and global initiatives.
In this situation, Germany wants to make a strong geopolitical statement – and signed a strategic partnership with democratic Mongolia. The aim is to achieve ambitious goals in several areas:
Diplomacy: Closer cooperation is planned, both bilaterally and internationally at the United Nations.
Economy: Mongolia is rich in raw materials such as copper, gold and rare earths – which Germany urgently needs, in part to reduce its dependence on China.
Climate action: Mongolia is predestined for the expansion of solar and wind power.
Military: Among other things, Germany wants to train Mongolian mountain troops.
And last but not least, geopolitics: the aim here is to strengthen democratic Mongolia against its authoritarian neighbors China and Russia.
This is the first time Mongolia has signed such a high-level agreement with a European state. For the German President, it is about nothing less than democracy, the rule of law and the preservation of the international order with the UN Charter at its core. According to Frank-Walter Steinmeier, only this order guarantees nations their independence, sovereignty, and the security of their international borders. “This strategic partnership therefore sends out a clear signal.” The addressees are very close by, bordering Mongolia directly: China and Russia.
Mongolia is dependent on China and Russia
There are few other countries where the fault line between democracy and autocracy is as clearly visible as on Mongolia’s borders. With Russia to the north and China to the south, Mongolia is not only geographically in a kind of headlock. Mongolia’s dependence on its two neighbors is almost overwhelming: 98 percent of its energy comes from Russia, while 90 percent of Mongolian exports go to China.
“The strategic partnership is a very important step,” Gantulga Tuvshinzaya told Table.Media. “It gives Mongolia the much-needed breathing room in its very complicated geopolitical environment between China and Russia,” explains the Nonresident Fellow of the Mongolian National Institute for Security Studies.
China and Russia increase pressure on Mongolia
China and Russia are increasingly using their influence as leverage. When Ulaanbaatar negotiated with France over the supply of uranium to reduce its energy dependency on Moscow, Russia suddenly severely curtailed its energy exports. A similar situation happened in China: After the Dalai Lama visited Mongolia, China increased the pressure until the government in Ulaanbaatar promised not to invite the religious leader of the Tibetans ever again. The Dalai Lama is also the head of the predominantly Buddhist Mongolians.
For a long time, China and Russia were in direct competition with each other. Mongolia was thus repeatedly able to play off the interests of the two superpowers against each other and maintain a certain balance.
Germany as a third neighbor
There is also a third pillar of Mongolian foreign policy: the concept of the “third neighbor.” This means Mongolia is actively looking for like-minded neighbors beyond its geographical neighbors, China and Russia.
Apart from the global superpower USA and neighboring countries Japan and South Korea, this is primarily Germany. The relationship between Mongolia and Germany is longer and more diverse than the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations might suggest.
Mongolia’s leeway is shrinking
This third-neighbor policy has become increasingly important – especially since China and Russia have promised themselves a “borderless friendship” under Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. The new closeness between Beijing and Moscow also has consequences for Mongolia.
In July, Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov traveled to Beijing and announced that he and his Chinese counterpart had agreed to counteract the growing Western influence on their “inner neighbor” Mongolia. Since then, Mongolia’s opportunities to capitalize on any differences between its neighbors have dwindled considerably.
Not forcing Mongolia to pick a side
In this environment, Germany is a very welcome partner. However, despite all the enthusiasm, a serious mistake should be avoided, one that particularly the United States often makes in its geopolitical plans. “I hope that Germany will not demand that Mongolia pick a side in the geopolitical dispute,” explains Tuvshinzaya. “We cannot completely turn our backs on China and Russia.”
Mongolia has basically already made up its mind with its constitution. Or, in the words of former US Secretary of State John Kerry: “Mongolia is an oasis of democracy in Asia.”
The partnership needs substance
Rather, the task now is to fill the strategic partnership with substance. However, Viktor Frank is only “cautiously optimistic” at this point. The head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ulaanbaatar explains in an interview with Table.Media: “Huge infrastructure investments are required to actually develop Mongolia’s rich raw materials. In addition, projects by German companies would then have to be politically flanked by Hermes guarantees or agreements on the legal protection of such investments.”
The German President seems to be aware of this. In any case, Steinmeier assured the Mongolian Prime Minister: “We don’t just want to sign papers, we also want to make concrete policy.” If this succeeds, this trip would indeed send out an important geopolitical signal.
Climate & Environment
Energy
Geopolitics
Technology
Trade
Year of the Dragon promises a baby boom – but only for a short time
China expects a baby boom in 2024: children born in the Year of the Dragon are considered charismatic and self-confident.
In the West, we know the dragon as a fire-breathing monster that spreads fear and terror. In the Far East, however, the dragon is associated with a wise, benevolent and divine mythical creature that protects against evil spirits.
When around 1.5 billion people from Chinese culture around the world celebrate the new Year of the Dragon on Saturday night, they will be welcoming a particularly promising year from their perspective. The dragon has always had a deep symbolism in Chinese culture and is not only the symbol of the ancient emperors. The dragon year also promises luck, success, prosperity – and many children.
At least, that was the case in the past Dragon years. According to Chinese astrology, children born in the Year of the Dragon are considered charismatic, determined and self-confident and are said to be blessed with wisdom. They bring joy to the whole family. And because the Year of the Dragon is also associated with the element of wood this time, 2024 promises to be a year of growth and development. This also evokes positive associations in China.
Birthrates rose sharply
When the Year of the Dragon was last celebrated twelve years ago, birth rates in China, Taiwan and other countries with a large Chinese population, such as Singapore and Malaysia, rose sharply. In the Year of the Dragon 2000, for example, Hong Kong registered 5.6 percent more births than in the year before. In the Chinese-dominated city-state of Singapore, where the fertility rate has been around 1.1 children per woman for decades, births in the Dragon Years 2000 and 1988 increased by more than ten percent compared to the respective previous years, and in Taiwan by over 13 percent. There were also more marriages in the Year of the Dragon than in the years before or after.
Communist Party leadership has high hopes for 2024
The Chinese leadership particularly hopes that belief in the Chinese horoscope will lead to a real baby boom in 2024. China has a huge demographic problem. The one-child policy, which only allowed married couples in China to have one child for over 30 years, was abolished in 2015. However, the number of births has continued to fall for years. Just at the beginning of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the population of the People’s Republic had shrunk for the second year in a row in 2023, namely, by two million. The leadership is particularly alarmed by the pace. While around 18 million children were born in 2016, there were only half as many last year. Since last year, China is no longer the most populous country in the world. This title went to India.
But even if there is a high probability that the Year of the Dragon 2024 will see a baby boom and more children will be born in China than in previous years: This will not reverse the fundamental trend. And that is: shrinkage.
No general reversal
In the last Dragon Year, 2012, the increase in the number of children born was around five percent. However, the birth rate in the year before, which is dedicated to the rabbit, was even lower. And in the year after that, the Year of the Snake, an above-average number of children were born. Many young couples had deliberately timed their child’s conception to coincide with the year of the dragon. This evened out over a three-year period. This time is unlikely to be any different.
Fertility clinics and the baby food, toy and children’s clothing industries in China have been campaigning for more pregnancies on the internet and in glossy magazines for months. However, this advertising trend will likely be over by late spring at the latest.
According to medical calculations, a child should be conceived by May 17 so that it sees the light of day before the end of the lunar year on January 28, 2025. Because by then, the Year of the Dragon will already be over. And the snake is not so popular with parents-to-be.
Demographics
Ein-Kind-Politik
Events
Feb. 12, 2024; 6 p.m. CET (Feb. 13, 1:00 a.m. CST) Program on U.S.-Japan Relations, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Talk (also via Zoom):Craig Allen – China’s Economic Development Model: Implications for US-Japan RelationsMore
Feb. 14, 2024; 2:30 p.m. CET (9:30 p.m. CST) CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, Webcast:Building International Support for Taiwan – Report LaunchMore
Feb 20, 2024 9:30 p.m. CET (Feb 21, 4:30 a.m. CST) Center for Strategic & International Studies CSIS, Webcast:A Conversation with US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield on U.S. Diplomacy in the Pacific IslandsMore
Feb 21, 2024 2:30 a.m. CET (9:30 a.m. CST) Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Urban China Lecture Series (also via Zoom):Shawn SK Teo – Two Experiments in Theorizing (with) Urban ChinaMore
News
China’s consumer prices suffer biggest fall in 14 years
The steep fall of China’s consumer prices fuels fears of an economically harmful deflationary spiral. At the beginning of the year, they fell for the fourth time in a row and more sharply than at any time in over 14 years: at 0.8 percent, the decline was the sharpest since September 2009, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday. Producer prices are also falling. The corresponding PPI index fell by 2.5 percent in January compared to the previous year.
While high inflation chips away at consumers’ purchasing power in most developed countries, deflation in China fuels consumer restraint. This could trigger a devastating economic downward spiral. The People’s Republic was unable to revive the economy after the end of the pandemic measures at the end of 2022. This is partly due to the still-simmering property crisis and the problems exporters face. Although the economy grew by 5.2 percent in 2023, thus reaching the official target of around five percent, the road to recovery has been bumpy, with consumption, in particular, failing to take off.
The official growth target for the current year is expected to be announced at the opening of the National People’s Congress – the annual parliamentary session of the communist-ruled country. If, as in 2023, the CCP targets growth of around five percent, many observers believe this would be quite ambitious – even if the government and central bank were to inject new stimulus into the economy.
The central bank recently lowered the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for commercial banks – by half a percentage point. The reduction will release around one trillion yuan (equivalent to around 128 billion euros) in liquidity for the financial system. The dilemma for the central bank is that the interest rate cuts, which are intended to stimulate the economy, could accelerate the price slump. Experts point out that a large proportion of the loans are being channeled into the infrastructure sector and also into overcapacity, which could build up further deflationary pressure. rtr
Geldpolitik
Siemens hopes for an upswing in the second half of the year
Siemens battles the economic slowdown in China. This is the reason why the German technology group’s flagship, the Digital Industries (DI) automation division, showed unusual weaknesses in the first quarter of the 2023/24 fiscal year (as of the end of September). As purchases in the factory automation sector in the People’s Republic slumped by 55 percent, offsetting growth in the mobility and industrial sectors, Siemens’ order intake largely stagnated in the first quarter of the fiscal year.
It could take until the second half of the year for clients in China to clear their warehouses, said Siemens CEO Roland Busch on Thursday before the Annual General Meeting in Munich. How long exactly will become clearer in a few weeks, added CFO Ralf Thomas. However, they claimed that the low point had been overcome.
Demand in China for building and infrastructure technology is also sluggish. Neither of the two sees Siemens’ targets in danger. The company left its outlook for the DI division and the group as a whole unchanged. “The Chinese market is still very slow,” said CEO Roland Busch told Bloomberg Television “We hope that we will see a pick-up in China in the second half of the year.”
“Siemens again delivered a strong quarter, maintaining a trajectory of profitable growth,” said CEO Busch. Between October and December, sales increased by six percent to 18.4 billion euros. Contrary to analysts’ expectations, order intake increased by two percent to 22.3 billion euros. At 2.55 billion euros, net profit was even significantly higher than forecast. Siemens also owed the jump in profits to a special income of 479 million euros from the transfer of a package of Siemens Energy shares to its own pension fund. cyb/rtr
Unternehmen
Human rights activist: China forces Tibetans as young as four into boarding schools
According to human rights activists, the Chinese government forces more than 80 percent of Tibetan children into boarding schools. The Protestant Press Agency (epd) quotes the Society for Threatened Peoples as saying that children as young as four are often separated from their parents for months because state boarding schools are located hundreds of kilometers away from their home villages. In total, hundreds of thousands of children between the ages of four and six have to attend boarding schools with the aim of cutting them off from their language and Tibetan identity.
When the children return home from boarding school after months of separation, they often only speak Mandarin and refuse to speak Tibetan, the Society for Threatened Peoples reported, according to epd. The Buddhist traditions of their parents and grandparents then no longer seemed to interest them. flee
Children
Human Rights
Kinder
Tibet
Opinion
How the German communist Renate Koppe made a fool of herself in China
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2865.90 on February 8, the last trading session before the Year of Dragon starts. The index soared 5 percent in the last week with strong government intervention but slid 12 percent for the whole lunar year.
China’s highly speculative stock market has stayed unrelated to the country’s economic performance for most of the time in its history of 33 years. But in the past year, the market mood was exceptionally in line with what people felt about the economy as all the indices spiraled down.
After authorities realized late last year that they needed to act to boost confidence in economic prospects, senior officials, including Premier Li Qiang, promised “more forceful, effective measures to promote capital market’s stable development.” A spate of steps has been taken, including an increase in liquidity. But they failed to drive away the gloom surrounding the market, which seemed stuck on the plunging track.
Propaganda blunder angered investors
At this point, an article on the leading mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, turned investors’ pessimism into anger. In an interview with the People’s Daily published on February 2, Renate Koppe, international secretary of the German Communist Party’s central committee, said she saw “an entire country permeated with an optimistic atmosphere” during her visit to China last year.
The quote, also used as the article’s title, made a perfect contrast with reality. It immediately went viral and galvanized the deeply offended stock investors. Assuming the social media page of the US embassy is relatively immune to censorship, they flocked to its account on Weibo, a popular Chinese platform similar to X.
Under an article on giraffe protection published on the same day, users wrote more than 160,000 pieces of comments by February 5. Most of them had nothing to do with the animal. Instead, they were about the stock market. The most provocative ones included calls for the US Securities and Exchanges Commission to take over the Chinese market, an appeal that the US save some missiles to bomb the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and a promise to lead the way when the US army invades China.
Unhealthy stock market
China accounted for nearly 20 percent of the total capitalization of the global stock markets in 2015. Its share had tumbled to around 10 percent now. The number of active investors in China’s two bourses is estimated to be between 20 million and 30 million. But the market has never been a place for fair trading and a place hosting a reasonable number of companies generating decent dividends. The most famous criticism is from renowned economist Wu Jinglian, who compared the market to a poorly managed casino.
Among the 4,876 companies ever listed in the market, only 0.5 percent of them have generated net wealth for investors, research by Hong Kong-based Forthright Financial Holdings has found. Still, many investors believe they would be smart or lucky enough to believe others. According to the same report, only 0.5 percent of investors made money. And now they blamed the authorities for the money they had lost.
The mockery continues
Stock investors were not the only unhappy group during the past year. The vast majority of Chinese have been disgruntled for economic or political reasons. Complaints by the stock investors, which became particularly loud towards the end of the lunar calendar, added yet another layer to the frustrations.
The People’s Daily article also attracted many with no investment in the stock market. Myriads of parodic quips were created to mock the propaganda piece, the most popular being, “The entire giraffe community is permeated by an optimistic atmosphere.”
Respite created for a happy Chinese New Year.
Censors eventually acted, banning topics with the “optimistic atmosphere” label. Trolls were mobilized to post comments lauding “Sino-US friendship.” Comments over the stock market on the US embassy’s Weibo page were deleted, which triggered some persistent critics’ move to the Indian embassy’s account to continue with the grumbles.
On February 6, the Central Huijin Investment, a subsidiary of the sovereign fund China Investment Corp, announced it would increase its holding of Chinese shares, sending the Shanghai market to soar by more than 3 percent.
On February 7, a heavyweight scapegoat for market losses was chosen as chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, was unexpectedly sacked. On the same day, Bloomberg reported that Xi Jinping himself was concerned about the situation of the stock market.
The market continued to gain ground in the year’s last two trading days, offering some hope for the new lunar year, hopefully not false hope.
Gesellschaft
Executive Moves
Cliff Sims, former Deputy Director of National Intelligence during the Trump Administration, has been appointed as a member of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission by Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson.
Luo Yizhou has been President of the oil and gas trading unit PetroChina International since last month. Luo, who started out as a crude oil trader at the oil company, most recently served as Vice President.
Is something changing in your organization? Let us know at heads@table.media!
Dessert
The dragon has become an overused symbol of China’s rise, especially in the media. It is said to symbolize strength, but also imminent danger. Countless magazines and book covers are proof of this.
Journalist and illustrator Selina Lee calls this “authorientalism” and uses it to describe a visual language that combines orientalism and authoritarianism without reflection. The dragon’s often red and yellow color scheme frequently overshoots the mark, for example, when the mythical creature is given a camera head to illustrate surveillance in the People’s Republic. This lumps together Chinese culture and politics with clichés that, unfortunately, still sell well in 2024.
