According to insiders, the Chinese government is planning to devalue the yuan by 2025 – in response to possible higher trade tariffs imposed by the US under a new Donald Trump presidency. During Trump’s first term in office, the yuan weakened by more than 12% against the US dollar after he announced and implemented a series of punitive tariffs between March 2018 and May 2020. The US threatened severe consequences on Tuesday.
The German economy would also inevitably be affected by such a devaluation, analyzes Marcel Grzanna. As an export nation, German and Chinese companies are direct competitors in third countries.
More and more companies are falling victim to data theft. This is shown by a representative study by the digital association Bitkom. According to the study, the damage to the German economy is now at a record high of €266.6 billion. Most attacks come from China. To protect sensitive data, the communications industry is relying on 5G campus networks, reports Manuel Liu from PMRExpo in Cologne.
The fact that the People’s Republic has interests in the Arctic is now more in the public eye. But what is the situation at the other pole? China has long since established itself as the top dog in the Antarctic, writes Inga von der Stein in today’s Opinion. Strategically, Antarctica offers China perfect starting conditions – the EU, however, does not yet have a stringent strategy.
The specter is returning: Beijing is considering devaluing its national currency, the renminbi, in the near future. This was reported by the Reuters news agency, which referred to several sources close to the Chinese central bank. Such a measure is reminiscent of the times when the USA accused China of massively manipulating its trade balance by cheapening export products and building up huge amounts of foreign currency at its expense.
Reuters has learned that China’s leadership is considering the move as a possible response to higher US trade tariffs. Once again, incoming POTUS Donald Trump is providing the impetus, although he will not return to the White House until Jan. 20. Trump had already announced his intention to impose a universal import tariff of ten percent and a tariff of 60 percent on Chinese imports into the United States. A devaluation of the renminbi could make Chinese exports cheaper and thus cushion the drastic impact of the tariffs on the Chinese economy.
The news immediately made waves in the US. “We will react sharply if we see other countries manipulating their currency to gain an advantage,” said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Leading nations should let the market alone decide the value of their currency.
The German economy would also inevitably be affected by such a devaluation. As an export nation, German and Chinese companies are direct competitors in third countries. Chinese suppliers would benefit if they were able to match their customers’ prices by a few percentage points without having to accept further losses.
Specifically, the idea of lowering the value to 7.5 yuan per US dollar is said to be under consideration. This would correspond to a devaluation of around 3.5 percent compared to the current daily value of around 7.25 yuan. The central bank’s usual practice, however, is to keep the exchange rate stable within a certain range. The value of the currency is allowed to fluctuate by two percent above or below a daily average set by the central bank. During Donald Trump’s first term in office, the yuan already lost more than 12% of its value against the US dollar between March 2018 and May 2020 as a result of reciprocal tariff announcements.
However, the use of such an instrument does not come without a price. On the contrary, Beijing’s ambitions to internationalize its currency would be dealt a severe blow. At the latest since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007, Beijing began to clearly formulate its ambitions to establish a reserve currency in the world with the renminbi. The plan is for the yuan to break the dominance of the US dollar and thus the US financial system.
In fact, the People’s Republic has already converted international trade with numerous partner countries to its own national currency. For example, the dollar no longer plays a major role in trade between Russia and China. In 2010, around 80 percent of Chinese exports to the world were paid for in US dollars. In the meantime, the volume has fallen by around half. This is mainly because Russian raw materials are paid for by Beijing in renminbi.
However, an artificial devaluation simply makes the yuan unattractive for investors. Those who want to park their money would rather do so in US dollars, euros, or Japanese yen because their value is determined by market forces, not government forces. The renminbi can currently still be ruled out as a reserve currency.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen marginalized the threat to the US dollar on Wednesday. However, a “de-dollarization” of the world could presumably develop into a real threat to the global leadership role of the US. Those with an overview and control of financial flows have more information than other players and greater scope to intervene. Russia is experiencing this after it attacked Ukraine because it has been cut off from the dollar flow by the sanctions. The power of the dollar also guarantees the Americans almost inexhaustible credit from international investors, who repeatedly put large sums of money into US government bonds.
The fact that the Chinese central bank is prepared to postpone plans to internationalize the renminbi is an indication of the concern that Trump’s tariffs are causing Beijing. At the beginning of the week, it was leaked that the economic stimulus packages for the domestic economy would be significantly larger than previously discussed. A weak yuan could help the second-largest economy to reduce deflationary pressure by increasing export earnings and making imported goods more expensive. China’s exports fell sharply in November and imports shrank unexpectedly, making monetary policy measures more likely as a possible way out.
However, analysts are also warning of import restrictions for goods from China should the central bank support the sector by making its goods artificially cheaper. The question is to what extent China’s trading partners would accept a devaluation without initiating countermeasures.
More and more companies are falling victim to data theft. This is shown by a representative study by the digital association Bitkom. According to the study, the damage to the German economy is now at a record high of €266.6 billion. Most attacks come from China.
As the Bitkom study shows, 45% of the affected companies were able to trace at least one attack back to the People’s Republic. Previously, Russia was considered the biggest attacker. In most cases, organized crime is behind the attacks. However, the number of operations by state secret services and their auxiliaries is also growing steadily. It now amounts to 20 percent. Officially, China condemns all forms of cyber attacks.
“The results of the study correspond with our assessment of the situation. International conflicts and systemic rivalries characterize the security situation in cyberspace as well as in geopolitical space,” said Sinan Selen, Vice President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) at the presentation of the study. The interlinking of cyber espionage and cybercrime has continued to increase.
There is an even closer connection between digital and analog attacks. “Attackers are pursuing the goal of opening the door to classic espionage activities through precisely tailored social engineering. At the same time, the threat of digital and physical sabotage continues to increase,” said Selen. The sharp rise in analog attacks, including sabotage of operational processes and systems, is a cause for concern. Example: the severed deep-sea cable in the Baltic Sea. Such external factors show how vulnerable the communication systems are.
This year, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution once again warned against economic espionage and influence peddling from China. In April, for example, three German citizens were arrested for allegedly conducting industrial espionage for the Chinese secret service. This was followed in the same month by reports of Chinese hacker attacks against Volkswagen that could be traced back to 2011. The attackers obtained the know-how of Germany’s largest car manufacturer.
5G campus networks promise better protection. At the end of November, the secure communications industry met at PMRExpo in Cologne to discuss future technologies. A campus network is a high-performance, resilient, and self-contained network. A base station, antennas, cells, and terminals are used to create a mobile network over large areas, such as production facilities. In principle, they are considered secure as they cannot be accessed from outside.
In such a network, 5G technology makes it possible to send large amounts of data in less than a millisecond. This is around ten times faster than conventional WiFi. This means that port containers can be controlled remotely, production facilities can be monitored in real-time and systems can be maintained from an office desk.
However, individual interfaces of a 5G campus network are vulnerable, says an industry representative in an interview with Table.Briefings, who wishes to remain anonymous: “For example, it is possible to kick out all registered devices with a radio module near the network. A soft attack like this is possible with relatively little effort.“
The ban on 5G components made by Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE also applies to campus networks. But the interviewee says: “In the end, all hardware somehow comes from China.” This means that there is always a residual risk that a loophole for attackers has been built into hardware at a Chinese factory.
However, Johannes Weicksel sees no security concerns at the network level. He is Head of Sales at Dresden-based start-up CampusGenius, which develops cost-effective 5G cores, i.e. the heart of the mobile network – also with a Taiwanese partner. “From my point of view, there is no indication that the mobile network can be compromised in any way by unauthorized third parties,” says Weicksel.
In general, 5G campus networks are resilient to other external factors, for example if an undersea cable is cut and there are temporary connection problems with the internet. Campus networks in Germany are based on exclusively allocated radio frequencies. This means that the capacity and performance of the connection are guaranteed at all times.
As of Dec. 1, the Federal Network Agency had issued 441 frequencies for private 5G networks. It is not possible to determine how many of these are still being set up and how many are already in productive use. What is certain is that around a quarter of German businesses want to set up 5G networks for their own purposes or are already doing so. This was the result of a representative survey commissioned by the digital association Bitkom in 2022.
Germany is at the forefront of technology in Europe. Most campus networks are being built in Europe, as figures from the Global Mobile Suppliers Association, a not-for-profit industry association of technology providers in mobile communications, show. However, the market for 5G campus networks is still in its infancy.
The annual meeting of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) in Hobart, Australia, ended without a sound bite at the end of October. And this despite the fact that geopolitics and climate policy met there as if under a burning glass. Negotiations on new marine protection zones in the Antarctic lasted nine days in Hobart. New marine protection agreements are urgently needed to relieve the pressure on crustaceans such as krill and other marine animals in the Antarctic.
But things have been at a standstill since 2016. The problem: The principle of unanimity applies. 25 of the 27 contracting parties agree on the proposals. Two countries have been blocking the process since 2016, and you are right to assume that China and Russia are doing so. The same game was repeated this year. But this showdown was lost in the current global situation. Because even if Antarctica is geographically a long way away from us and is not yet a hot spot of conflict, Antarctica is already geopolitically explosive.
Major powers such as China are already positioning themselves in Antarctica in order to exploit potential raw material deposits, but above all the strategic advantages of covert militarization in Antarctica – also to the detriment of us and our Western allies.
But if the People’s Republic is concerned with geopolitics and military advantages, why is China standing in the way of environmental protection? For two reasons. Firstly, krill fishing is playing an increasingly important role for China. Krill is not only used in food but also increasingly in medicine and cosmetic products, a sought-after product among China’s growing middle class.
While krill fishing is often prohibited in national territorial waters, such as those of the USA in some cases, China takes advantage of the fact that the sea areas in the Antarctic are stateless. In the last ten years, Chinese krill fishing in the Antarctic has increased eightfold – faster than that of any other nation. The People’s Republic has already registered the most ships for krill fishing in the Antarctic. An expansion of the marine protected areas would run counter to China’s demand for krill and other resources.
However, geopolitics is of even greater relevance. Strategically, Antarctica offers China perfect starting conditions. Of the more than 80 bases operating in Antarctica, five are owned by the People’s Republic. China is creating facts.
This is because the Antarctic is attractive to China: Every country that operates a research station in the Antarctic has the right to vote at meetings of the Antarctic Treaty Parties and the Marine Protection Commission. In contrast to the Arctic Council, Antarctica is therefore not a closed club. This plays into the People’s Republic’s hands strategically. In the Arctic, China is on the sidelines; in the Antarctic, it is in the middle of the playing field.
The question arises: What is the purpose of the five research stations? Research alone does not justify China’s high level of interest and enormous investment of resources. The People’s Republic often speaks of “win-win” opportunities for all Antarctic Treaty parties and the global community.
However, as things stand at present, China could gain twice over: firstly in terms of its own research purposes and economic goals. On the other hand, geostrategically. The US Department of Defense wrote in a report that China’s Antarctic strategy includes the use of dual-use technologies, i.e. civilian and military use. The aim is to improve the capabilities of the Chinese military. China wants to become a military superpower by 2049. Antarctica is a building block in this plan.
China’s stations are strategically positioned for the possible use of dual-use technologies – especially in telecommunications and information security. Ground stations can communicate with their own satellites to collect information. Polar-orbiting satellites, which are used for reconnaissance, could be disrupted by China. Australian authorities fear that Australia and New Zealand’s communications could be spied on via the station and the Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system.
China’s “Great Wall” station is located on the Drake Passage, one of the world’s most important trade routes. Thanks in part to companies such as Huawei and ZTE, China already has the information and communication technology to keep an eye on ships in the region via the station. The Zhongshan station is also to be equipped with additional antennas. Officially to speed up data exchange with the Chinese satellites.
Although the Antarctic Treaty System prohibits military activities, clandestine militarization is already in full swing through the deployment of dual-use capabilities. It can be assumed that Antarctica will be used as a hub for information gathering and surveillance in the medium term, which could be used for military conflicts outside Antarctica.
China is dependent on the infrastructure of gateway cities to expand its capacities. Argentina and Chile are of particular interest to China. Both countries have a high need for investment and have already joined the Chinese Silk Road.
China has also expressed interest in building its own port complex in the Chilean Strait of Magellan. No agreement has yet been made public, but Chilean President Boric has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to a joint meeting in Antarctica. Chile and China are also cooperating at a scientific level in Antarctic research.
China has been courting Argentina for years to establish a naval base near Ushuaia. However, the wind has changed with the change in government leadership with Javier Milei. In addition, the USA has recognized the geopolitical relevance of Antarctica and this year presented a new security strategy for Antarctica – the first in 30 years.
It is clear that China is already creating new facts in Antarctica. It is therefore all the more important that Germany and Europe no longer treat Antarctica as a blind spot on the map. The next Consultative Meeting of the Antarctic Treaty Parties will take place in Milan at the end of June 2025. With eleven out of 29 voting states, the EU member states carry the greatest negotiating weight. What is missing is a holistic EU strategy on Antarctica.
The EU should use the conference as an opportunity to develop an EU polar strategy by then. After all, while there is an EU strategy paper on the Arctic and Germany has also adopted an Arctic strategy this year, the same is missing for the Antarctic. A joint EU polar strategy that focuses on both poles and considers geopolitics, environmental protection, and space together.
Many of the challenges facing the Arctic can also be found in the Antarctic. This would give the EU member states a guideline for action. Last year, the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs commissioned a study examining the EU’s role in the Antarctic. This study also calls for an EU polar strategy. Now words must be followed by deeds. The EU must not idly leave the Antarctic playing field to China and its geopolitical ambitions.
Inga von der Stein has been an editor at the CDU office since 2023. From 2021 to 2023, she worked at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s foreign office in Argentina, based in Buenos Aires. Between 2019 and 2020, she was Policy Officer at the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Brussels. Von der Stein studied International Relations in Canterbury and Moscow and European Studies in Maastricht.
Editor’s note: Discussing China today means – more than ever – engaging in controversial debate. We want to reflect the diversity of Opinions so that you can gain an insight into the breadth of the debate. Opinion articles do not reflect the opinion of the editorial team.
According to the definition, a grimace is “a deliberately strange, bizarre, comical or ugly facial expression,” which already gives you a certain idea. However, the Chinese word for “grimacing” sums up this facial muscle play even more aptly. There it is called 扮鬼脸 bàn guǐliǎn or 做鬼脸 zuò guǐliǎn “to put on a ghost face” or “to make a ghost face”. Who would have thought it, by the way: Children learn to consciously control their facial expressions by making faces.
According to insiders, the Chinese government is planning to devalue the yuan by 2025 – in response to possible higher trade tariffs imposed by the US under a new Donald Trump presidency. During Trump’s first term in office, the yuan weakened by more than 12% against the US dollar after he announced and implemented a series of punitive tariffs between March 2018 and May 2020. The US threatened severe consequences on Tuesday.
The German economy would also inevitably be affected by such a devaluation, analyzes Marcel Grzanna. As an export nation, German and Chinese companies are direct competitors in third countries.
More and more companies are falling victim to data theft. This is shown by a representative study by the digital association Bitkom. According to the study, the damage to the German economy is now at a record high of €266.6 billion. Most attacks come from China. To protect sensitive data, the communications industry is relying on 5G campus networks, reports Manuel Liu from PMRExpo in Cologne.
The fact that the People’s Republic has interests in the Arctic is now more in the public eye. But what is the situation at the other pole? China has long since established itself as the top dog in the Antarctic, writes Inga von der Stein in today’s Opinion. Strategically, Antarctica offers China perfect starting conditions – the EU, however, does not yet have a stringent strategy.
The specter is returning: Beijing is considering devaluing its national currency, the renminbi, in the near future. This was reported by the Reuters news agency, which referred to several sources close to the Chinese central bank. Such a measure is reminiscent of the times when the USA accused China of massively manipulating its trade balance by cheapening export products and building up huge amounts of foreign currency at its expense.
Reuters has learned that China’s leadership is considering the move as a possible response to higher US trade tariffs. Once again, incoming POTUS Donald Trump is providing the impetus, although he will not return to the White House until Jan. 20. Trump had already announced his intention to impose a universal import tariff of ten percent and a tariff of 60 percent on Chinese imports into the United States. A devaluation of the renminbi could make Chinese exports cheaper and thus cushion the drastic impact of the tariffs on the Chinese economy.
The news immediately made waves in the US. “We will react sharply if we see other countries manipulating their currency to gain an advantage,” said US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Leading nations should let the market alone decide the value of their currency.
The German economy would also inevitably be affected by such a devaluation. As an export nation, German and Chinese companies are direct competitors in third countries. Chinese suppliers would benefit if they were able to match their customers’ prices by a few percentage points without having to accept further losses.
Specifically, the idea of lowering the value to 7.5 yuan per US dollar is said to be under consideration. This would correspond to a devaluation of around 3.5 percent compared to the current daily value of around 7.25 yuan. The central bank’s usual practice, however, is to keep the exchange rate stable within a certain range. The value of the currency is allowed to fluctuate by two percent above or below a daily average set by the central bank. During Donald Trump’s first term in office, the yuan already lost more than 12% of its value against the US dollar between March 2018 and May 2020 as a result of reciprocal tariff announcements.
However, the use of such an instrument does not come without a price. On the contrary, Beijing’s ambitions to internationalize its currency would be dealt a severe blow. At the latest since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007, Beijing began to clearly formulate its ambitions to establish a reserve currency in the world with the renminbi. The plan is for the yuan to break the dominance of the US dollar and thus the US financial system.
In fact, the People’s Republic has already converted international trade with numerous partner countries to its own national currency. For example, the dollar no longer plays a major role in trade between Russia and China. In 2010, around 80 percent of Chinese exports to the world were paid for in US dollars. In the meantime, the volume has fallen by around half. This is mainly because Russian raw materials are paid for by Beijing in renminbi.
However, an artificial devaluation simply makes the yuan unattractive for investors. Those who want to park their money would rather do so in US dollars, euros, or Japanese yen because their value is determined by market forces, not government forces. The renminbi can currently still be ruled out as a reserve currency.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen marginalized the threat to the US dollar on Wednesday. However, a “de-dollarization” of the world could presumably develop into a real threat to the global leadership role of the US. Those with an overview and control of financial flows have more information than other players and greater scope to intervene. Russia is experiencing this after it attacked Ukraine because it has been cut off from the dollar flow by the sanctions. The power of the dollar also guarantees the Americans almost inexhaustible credit from international investors, who repeatedly put large sums of money into US government bonds.
The fact that the Chinese central bank is prepared to postpone plans to internationalize the renminbi is an indication of the concern that Trump’s tariffs are causing Beijing. At the beginning of the week, it was leaked that the economic stimulus packages for the domestic economy would be significantly larger than previously discussed. A weak yuan could help the second-largest economy to reduce deflationary pressure by increasing export earnings and making imported goods more expensive. China’s exports fell sharply in November and imports shrank unexpectedly, making monetary policy measures more likely as a possible way out.
However, analysts are also warning of import restrictions for goods from China should the central bank support the sector by making its goods artificially cheaper. The question is to what extent China’s trading partners would accept a devaluation without initiating countermeasures.
More and more companies are falling victim to data theft. This is shown by a representative study by the digital association Bitkom. According to the study, the damage to the German economy is now at a record high of €266.6 billion. Most attacks come from China.
As the Bitkom study shows, 45% of the affected companies were able to trace at least one attack back to the People’s Republic. Previously, Russia was considered the biggest attacker. In most cases, organized crime is behind the attacks. However, the number of operations by state secret services and their auxiliaries is also growing steadily. It now amounts to 20 percent. Officially, China condemns all forms of cyber attacks.
“The results of the study correspond with our assessment of the situation. International conflicts and systemic rivalries characterize the security situation in cyberspace as well as in geopolitical space,” said Sinan Selen, Vice President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) at the presentation of the study. The interlinking of cyber espionage and cybercrime has continued to increase.
There is an even closer connection between digital and analog attacks. “Attackers are pursuing the goal of opening the door to classic espionage activities through precisely tailored social engineering. At the same time, the threat of digital and physical sabotage continues to increase,” said Selen. The sharp rise in analog attacks, including sabotage of operational processes and systems, is a cause for concern. Example: the severed deep-sea cable in the Baltic Sea. Such external factors show how vulnerable the communication systems are.
This year, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution once again warned against economic espionage and influence peddling from China. In April, for example, three German citizens were arrested for allegedly conducting industrial espionage for the Chinese secret service. This was followed in the same month by reports of Chinese hacker attacks against Volkswagen that could be traced back to 2011. The attackers obtained the know-how of Germany’s largest car manufacturer.
5G campus networks promise better protection. At the end of November, the secure communications industry met at PMRExpo in Cologne to discuss future technologies. A campus network is a high-performance, resilient, and self-contained network. A base station, antennas, cells, and terminals are used to create a mobile network over large areas, such as production facilities. In principle, they are considered secure as they cannot be accessed from outside.
In such a network, 5G technology makes it possible to send large amounts of data in less than a millisecond. This is around ten times faster than conventional WiFi. This means that port containers can be controlled remotely, production facilities can be monitored in real-time and systems can be maintained from an office desk.
However, individual interfaces of a 5G campus network are vulnerable, says an industry representative in an interview with Table.Briefings, who wishes to remain anonymous: “For example, it is possible to kick out all registered devices with a radio module near the network. A soft attack like this is possible with relatively little effort.“
The ban on 5G components made by Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei and ZTE also applies to campus networks. But the interviewee says: “In the end, all hardware somehow comes from China.” This means that there is always a residual risk that a loophole for attackers has been built into hardware at a Chinese factory.
However, Johannes Weicksel sees no security concerns at the network level. He is Head of Sales at Dresden-based start-up CampusGenius, which develops cost-effective 5G cores, i.e. the heart of the mobile network – also with a Taiwanese partner. “From my point of view, there is no indication that the mobile network can be compromised in any way by unauthorized third parties,” says Weicksel.
In general, 5G campus networks are resilient to other external factors, for example if an undersea cable is cut and there are temporary connection problems with the internet. Campus networks in Germany are based on exclusively allocated radio frequencies. This means that the capacity and performance of the connection are guaranteed at all times.
As of Dec. 1, the Federal Network Agency had issued 441 frequencies for private 5G networks. It is not possible to determine how many of these are still being set up and how many are already in productive use. What is certain is that around a quarter of German businesses want to set up 5G networks for their own purposes or are already doing so. This was the result of a representative survey commissioned by the digital association Bitkom in 2022.
Germany is at the forefront of technology in Europe. Most campus networks are being built in Europe, as figures from the Global Mobile Suppliers Association, a not-for-profit industry association of technology providers in mobile communications, show. However, the market for 5G campus networks is still in its infancy.
The annual meeting of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) in Hobart, Australia, ended without a sound bite at the end of October. And this despite the fact that geopolitics and climate policy met there as if under a burning glass. Negotiations on new marine protection zones in the Antarctic lasted nine days in Hobart. New marine protection agreements are urgently needed to relieve the pressure on crustaceans such as krill and other marine animals in the Antarctic.
But things have been at a standstill since 2016. The problem: The principle of unanimity applies. 25 of the 27 contracting parties agree on the proposals. Two countries have been blocking the process since 2016, and you are right to assume that China and Russia are doing so. The same game was repeated this year. But this showdown was lost in the current global situation. Because even if Antarctica is geographically a long way away from us and is not yet a hot spot of conflict, Antarctica is already geopolitically explosive.
Major powers such as China are already positioning themselves in Antarctica in order to exploit potential raw material deposits, but above all the strategic advantages of covert militarization in Antarctica – also to the detriment of us and our Western allies.
But if the People’s Republic is concerned with geopolitics and military advantages, why is China standing in the way of environmental protection? For two reasons. Firstly, krill fishing is playing an increasingly important role for China. Krill is not only used in food but also increasingly in medicine and cosmetic products, a sought-after product among China’s growing middle class.
While krill fishing is often prohibited in national territorial waters, such as those of the USA in some cases, China takes advantage of the fact that the sea areas in the Antarctic are stateless. In the last ten years, Chinese krill fishing in the Antarctic has increased eightfold – faster than that of any other nation. The People’s Republic has already registered the most ships for krill fishing in the Antarctic. An expansion of the marine protected areas would run counter to China’s demand for krill and other resources.
However, geopolitics is of even greater relevance. Strategically, Antarctica offers China perfect starting conditions. Of the more than 80 bases operating in Antarctica, five are owned by the People’s Republic. China is creating facts.
This is because the Antarctic is attractive to China: Every country that operates a research station in the Antarctic has the right to vote at meetings of the Antarctic Treaty Parties and the Marine Protection Commission. In contrast to the Arctic Council, Antarctica is therefore not a closed club. This plays into the People’s Republic’s hands strategically. In the Arctic, China is on the sidelines; in the Antarctic, it is in the middle of the playing field.
The question arises: What is the purpose of the five research stations? Research alone does not justify China’s high level of interest and enormous investment of resources. The People’s Republic often speaks of “win-win” opportunities for all Antarctic Treaty parties and the global community.
However, as things stand at present, China could gain twice over: firstly in terms of its own research purposes and economic goals. On the other hand, geostrategically. The US Department of Defense wrote in a report that China’s Antarctic strategy includes the use of dual-use technologies, i.e. civilian and military use. The aim is to improve the capabilities of the Chinese military. China wants to become a military superpower by 2049. Antarctica is a building block in this plan.
China’s stations are strategically positioned for the possible use of dual-use technologies – especially in telecommunications and information security. Ground stations can communicate with their own satellites to collect information. Polar-orbiting satellites, which are used for reconnaissance, could be disrupted by China. Australian authorities fear that Australia and New Zealand’s communications could be spied on via the station and the Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system.
China’s “Great Wall” station is located on the Drake Passage, one of the world’s most important trade routes. Thanks in part to companies such as Huawei and ZTE, China already has the information and communication technology to keep an eye on ships in the region via the station. The Zhongshan station is also to be equipped with additional antennas. Officially to speed up data exchange with the Chinese satellites.
Although the Antarctic Treaty System prohibits military activities, clandestine militarization is already in full swing through the deployment of dual-use capabilities. It can be assumed that Antarctica will be used as a hub for information gathering and surveillance in the medium term, which could be used for military conflicts outside Antarctica.
China is dependent on the infrastructure of gateway cities to expand its capacities. Argentina and Chile are of particular interest to China. Both countries have a high need for investment and have already joined the Chinese Silk Road.
China has also expressed interest in building its own port complex in the Chilean Strait of Magellan. No agreement has yet been made public, but Chilean President Boric has invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to a joint meeting in Antarctica. Chile and China are also cooperating at a scientific level in Antarctic research.
China has been courting Argentina for years to establish a naval base near Ushuaia. However, the wind has changed with the change in government leadership with Javier Milei. In addition, the USA has recognized the geopolitical relevance of Antarctica and this year presented a new security strategy for Antarctica – the first in 30 years.
It is clear that China is already creating new facts in Antarctica. It is therefore all the more important that Germany and Europe no longer treat Antarctica as a blind spot on the map. The next Consultative Meeting of the Antarctic Treaty Parties will take place in Milan at the end of June 2025. With eleven out of 29 voting states, the EU member states carry the greatest negotiating weight. What is missing is a holistic EU strategy on Antarctica.
The EU should use the conference as an opportunity to develop an EU polar strategy by then. After all, while there is an EU strategy paper on the Arctic and Germany has also adopted an Arctic strategy this year, the same is missing for the Antarctic. A joint EU polar strategy that focuses on both poles and considers geopolitics, environmental protection, and space together.
Many of the challenges facing the Arctic can also be found in the Antarctic. This would give the EU member states a guideline for action. Last year, the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs commissioned a study examining the EU’s role in the Antarctic. This study also calls for an EU polar strategy. Now words must be followed by deeds. The EU must not idly leave the Antarctic playing field to China and its geopolitical ambitions.
Inga von der Stein has been an editor at the CDU office since 2023. From 2021 to 2023, she worked at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s foreign office in Argentina, based in Buenos Aires. Between 2019 and 2020, she was Policy Officer at the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Brussels. Von der Stein studied International Relations in Canterbury and Moscow and European Studies in Maastricht.
Editor’s note: Discussing China today means – more than ever – engaging in controversial debate. We want to reflect the diversity of Opinions so that you can gain an insight into the breadth of the debate. Opinion articles do not reflect the opinion of the editorial team.
According to the definition, a grimace is “a deliberately strange, bizarre, comical or ugly facial expression,” which already gives you a certain idea. However, the Chinese word for “grimacing” sums up this facial muscle play even more aptly. There it is called 扮鬼脸 bàn guǐliǎn or 做鬼脸 zuò guǐliǎn “to put on a ghost face” or “to make a ghost face”. Who would have thought it, by the way: Children learn to consciously control their facial expressions by making faces.
