The picks that Donald Trump has announced for his new cabinet in recent weeks have caused reactions ranging from astonishment to bewilderment. However, Taiwan’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs François Wu welcomes the appointment of Marco Rubio as Foreign Minister, which he considers a very good friend of Taiwan. “Donald Trump wants to make America great again and we are thinking about what kind of positive role we can play in this.”
Wu believes cooperation with Taiwan is in Donald Trump’s interest, especially because of Taiwan’s electronics industry. Angela Köckritz spoke with Wu about the challenges of his office and the country’s “Not Today” policy.
Regarding the damaged submarine cables south of the Swedish island of Öland, the Chinese freighter “Yi Peng 3” is suspected of sabotaging the critical infrastructure. Beijing has so far denied any knowledge of the incident, and investigations are ongoing. The incident sheds light on the progress made in the coordination between NATO states and the remaining shortfalls in how such incidents are handled.
“The West remains vulnerable, because the suspicious behavior of the Chinese ship could and should have been noticed earlier Ü the transponder signal was switched on,” writes Lisa-Martina Klein in her analysis. However, the technical requirements for a comprehensive picture of the situation in the region are still in the early stages and could take years to develop.
One of the most controversial questions at COP29 is: Which countries should contribute to the new NCQG financial target? The high-income and heavily polluting emerging economies – for example, China – are unwilling to contribute. Developing countries do not demand China’s participation, although the country is an important lender for many of them, a fact that is hardly discussed at the climate conference. Urmi Goswami analyzes the (good) reasons for this.
In Taiwan, you are used to living with a high level of uncertainty. Now, with the election of President Donald Trump, you have to face a new level of it: unpredictability.
I am aware that Mr. Trump has an image of unpredictability among Europeans. However, based on our experience with him during his first presidency, we have no reason to share this perception with the Europeans. And when we look at the people he has gradually brought into his administration, I believe we have good reason to expect very close and smooth cooperation with the USA.
For example, the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is a very good friend of Taiwan. Donald Trump wants to make America great again, and we are thinking about what kind of positive role we can play in this.
There are very different voices in the new American cabinet. Elon Musk, for example, compared Taiwan to Hawaii and shared the Communist Party’s view that the country is an “integral part” of China.
In a democracy there will always be very different political opinions, a president cannot decide everything. But we have to look at common interests. Take a look at the semiconductor industry, because that is something Trump has criticized.
He claimed that Taiwan stole the chip business from the US.
With one dollar earned with the production of a semiconductor, 38 percent is going to the US, 12 percent is going to Japan, 12 percent to South Korea, 11 percent to the European Union, and 11 percent is going to Taiwan. The US earns the majority of the profit from semiconductor production. The semiconductor business is an ecosystem. There is the design part, the foundry and the packaging part. The US still dominates the design part, but Europe and Taiwan also plays an important role. The most important design partner for TSMC is IMEC in Brussels. The machines to produce chips are made in Netherlands ASML and German technology also plays a very important part in it.
The semiconductor industry is a shared ecosystem. There are so many common interests between Taiwan, the US, and the EU, and this makes the common ground very large for our common future.
Both Europe and Asia gear up for a new era of transactional diplomacy. And as far as Taiwan is concerned, Trump has made it very clear what he wants: more investment in the semiconductor industry. TSMC is already investing in Arizona, Germany and Japan. What else could be on the negotiating table?
Beyond semiconductor production there is a very important industry in Taiwan that people tend to forget. We all need to stock big quantities of data. This data is stored on servers. 90 percent of servers are made in Taiwan. Working with Taiwan is in the very strong interest of the US. For the past 10 years, Taiwan has already started to diversify its investments in the world. In 2013, our investment in China accounted for 84 percent of our investment worldwide. Last year, it went down to 8 percent, this year it will be going down to 7 percent. Those investments from Taiwan are directed to the US, Europe, Germany, France, the Czech Republic, Japan, South Asia, and India. We can offer a lot, not only in the electronics industry, which is our strongest part. So I think for Donald Trump working with Taiwan corresponds very strongly with American interests.
The other question, of course, is security. He declared that the US was not that different from an insurance company and that Taiwan should pay a higher price.
We already pay for our own defense because Taiwan does not have any security treaty, unlike South Korea, Japan, or the Philippines. Taiwan will be very happy to buy new weapons, if America agrees to sell them to Taiwan. The problem of the past is that many countries didn’t want to work with Taiwan on the security issue and sell us weapons. We already increased our national defense by more than 80 percent in the past eight years, and we will be very dedicated to it in the future. We know we have to show to the world that we have a very strong will to defend ourselves. The security of the region does not only concern Taiwan, but is also in the interest of the EU and European countries, for example regarding the freedom of navigation in the region.
There is a debate in the US about whether American soldiers should risk their lives for Taiwan if Taiwan is not doing enough for its defense. What do you think of this?
Our national defense budget is already 20 percent of our total government budget. That is already quite high, higher than France, Germany and the US. With a population of 23 million, the Taiwanese military personnel is over 180,000 people. That is the same size as the German and French armies and much higher than Italy’s. The pressure that Taiwan is facing is not the same as other countries. For example, when South Koreans and Japan want to buy weapons, they do not face many difficulties. But we do. We will of course continue with our military reforms, but it is not only up to us to stop the Chinese hostility we need to work with the whole world to maintain the peace. We have this “Not Today” Policy.
What do you mean by that?
We want Xi Jinping to draw the conclusion ”Today is not a good day for invading Taiwan.” It is composed of three pillars. The first one is the very strong will to defend ourselves. The second one is the credibility of democratic military powers in the region. Every month, the US holds military drills in the region. Germany just sent their frigate through the Taiwan Strait, then the French, and the Netherlands. We also have Turkey, Great Britain, and even Italy sent an aircraft carrier to work with the Japanese navy. This all sends a very important message to China. The third pillar will be the support of the international community to support Taiwan to join international organizations.
Taiwan’s foreign policy faces the major challenge that only eleven countries and the Holy See officially recognize Taiwan. However, Donald Trump values personal loyalty more than anything else. How can you build a close personal relationship in the face of these obstacles?
For me, it is just a new form of working with other countries. Compared with other countries, we have a huge network of 111 foreign missions in the world. More and more, we can meet officials unofficially. A new form of life doesn’t need recognition from another life. It just functions well. Taiwan functions well. And regarding the Trump administration, we are sure that Marco Rubio knows Taiwan very well, and so would the cooperation between Taiwan and Trump’s government.
Parts of the Taiwanese population are skeptical whether the US would really come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of an attack. China is trying to reinforce this doubt with disinformation campaigns to signal to the Taiwanese population: You will be alone, better find a way to work with us. Will Trump’s unpredictability amplify this sentiment?
China, of course, will try to persuade Taiwanese people not to trust the US. However, the majority of Taiwanese have confidence in our relationship with the USA. I don’t believe that Germany, France, and the USA will abandon Taiwan. After all, we have relations between our societies. The support of Taiwan is increasing in the democratic world.
What do you hope or expect from Germany?
We have already completed the first step of building a new semiconductor factory in Germany. It is a very strong national interest of Germany and Taiwan. So, based on this very strong common issue of interest, I hope that the exchange between Germany and Taiwan will go further and further.
After the discovery of damaged undersea cables south of the Swedish island of Öland earlier this week, it only took a few hours for naval vessels from several NATO countries to begin tailing suspicious vessels, including “Yi Peng 3,” a cargo ship sailing under the Chinese flag.
China has signaled that it will cooperate with the Swedish and Danish authorities. The Foreign Ministry in Beijing said on Thursday that it would remain in contact with the parties involved and work together to ensure the safety of the international underwater infrastructure. Spokesman Lin Jian commented on questions about a Chinese ship in Danish waters and the investigations by Finland and Sweden. He said he was not aware of any details about the ship.
German, Swedish and Finnish authorities assume that the two submarine fiber optic cables BCS East-West and C-Lion1 were sabotaged; corresponding investigations have been initiated by the responsible national law enforcement authorities. It remains unconfirmed whether the freighter has been detained or even boarded by the crews of the Danish Navy’s patrol vessels, as the media reported on Wednesday evening. The Danish Defense Command only wrote on the short message service X that they were in the vicinity of the “Yi Peng 3.” The nationality of the captain could not be clarified either.
The swift coordination shows that a lot has happened in NATO since the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines and the damage to the Baltic Connector gas pipeline by the Chinese ship “NewNew Polar Bear” in October 2023. In early 2023, the Western defense alliance set up a coordination cell with the aim of uniting all players in the field of underwater infrastructure in the NATO countries – operators, industry and governments.
On the military side, NATO states agreed to set up a Maritime Center for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure, based at Maritime Command (Marcom) in Northwood, UK. This is also where the data in the current case came together. And: Since the beginning of the year, each NATO country has appointed one central contact person for maritime infrastructures.
However, the incident also shows that the West remains vulnerable, because the suspicious behavior of the Chinese vessel could and should have been discovered earlier – the transponder signal was switched on, as it was on the “NewNew Polar Bear” at the time.
With the opening of the maritime headquarters (Commander Task Force Baltic, CTF Baltic) in October, the countries bordering the Baltic Sea now have a central coordination center under the umbrella of the naval command in Rostock. A spokesperson for the German-led maritime headquarters Commander Task Force Baltic, which was only opened in October, told Table.Briefings: “CTF Baltic is involved against the background of regional responsibility for the Baltic Sea. With regard to the current incidents involving data cables at sea, the German Navy is in constant contact with the responsible and relevant authorities, both nationally and within the Alliance.”
However, the technical requirements for a comprehensive situational picture of the region, fed, for example, from data from ships, drones, and maritime reconnaissance aircraft, including satellite images and other security-relevant actors, are still being established. This would allow suspicious behavior to be detected early on – and should also have a deterrent effect.
So far, the attacks have not resulted in any significant supply disruptions. In the current case, the data was rerouted quickly. Following the damage to the Balticconnector pipeline, Finland could cover its gas requirements with imported liquefied gas.
The situation would be different for the LNG pipeline “Europipe” between Germany and Norway, which supplies around 19 million European households. A sudden disruption, especially in winter, would seriously jeopardize the energy supply for households and the European economy.
In Germany, there is also the question of jurisdiction. Outside the German territorial sea, the Federal Police are involved in patrols to protect critical infrastructure. However, only the German Navy can take action against a military opponent, and it can only act internally if requested to do so. On the other hand, the surveillance of maritime infrastructure is not within the remit of the Navy. This means that there is not only a lack of coordination when it comes to averting danger. In the event of an emergency, it will require swift, legally secure coordination between the German government, the federal states and the military.
It is one of the most contentious questions at COP29: Which countries should contribute to the new financial target, the NCQG? High-income and heavily polluting emerging economies – such as China – are unwilling to take on payment obligations. Developing countries are not demanding China’s participation, even though the country is a major lender for many of them, particularly in Africa. This issue is rarely discussed at the climate conference. And there are good reasons for that.
Indebtedness exacerbated by climate change-induced extreme weather events and impacts is one of the drivers of the developing countries’ demand that grants and highly concessional loans form the core of the climate finance provided by rich industrialized countries.
Low-middle-income and low-income countries are particularly crippled by debt. It limits the fiscal space to take measures that would accelerate the energy transition and the pace at which these countries shift their developmental trajectory.
No conversation on climate finance that is fit for purpose can avoid the question of debt. Yet, the discussions on avoiding indebtedness in Baku are marked by an obvious silence. There is little mention of China, which relies on loans and export credits to give financial assistance to other developing countries.
Addressing the World Leaders Climate Action Summit at COP29, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said “Since 2016, China has provided and mobilized more than 177 billion yuan (24.5 billion US dollars) of project funds in support of other developing countries climate response”
A study by the Washington DC-based think tank World Resources Institute finds that between 2013 and 2022, China provided and mobilized 45 billion US dollars to developing countries. Delving into the elements of this money, the study finds that about 26 percent, or 11,7 billion is in the form of export credits. These are loans provided by China EXIM and guarantees or insurance provided by SINOSURE. In comparison, export credits account for 3 percent of funds provided by developed countries.
Despite this, discussions on the new collective quantified goal on finance tiptoe around the debt that China holds. That subject is taboo. Negotiators involved in the two-year-long discussions say that China has made it clear that the UNFCCC and the discussion on the new climate finance goal are not the appropriate spaces for discussion debt. That conversation belongs outside the UN climate process.
For many countries, including many African countries and least developed countries, addressing the issue of debt is critical, if not more, as the “quantum” or amount of the new goal. Take Kenya, for example, a middle-income country, 67 percent of its budget goes to service the country’s debt. Not all of it is climate-related but the high burden of debt and debt servicing constrains the ability of a country like Kenya to take measures to reduce emissions, increase resilience to climate change, and ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
“If the fiscal space does not allow you to access finance, then you cannot. No amount of quantum agreed here at Baku is relevant unless you address the fiscal space,” said a senior negotiator from Africa.
Given its criticality, why then are the developing countries under the umbrella of the G77 and China underplaying the issue of debt? While important, it is a matter of priority and sequencing.
“The Paris Agreement is very clear, it emphasizes that developed countries must provide leadership and developing countries have to be supported,” said Ali Mohamed, Chair of the Africa Group and Special Climate Envoy of President William Ruto of Kenya.
“Debt matters, clearly but here in the UNFCCC, the focus must be on ensuring the developed industrialized countries. The NCQG is about climate finance provided and mobilized by developed countries for developing ones,” explained a diplomat from a small island state.
China’s reticence about talking debt notwithstanding, negotiators from other big and advanced developing countries, and even the more vulnerable developing countries are of the view that a “good finance deal” will require the developing country bloc to remain united. “The G-77 and China have presented a united front, and they will remain so. They have taken steps to underscore their unity, putting forward a collective ask of 1.3 trillion US dollar figure collective finance goal,” said Mohamed Adow, founding director of the Nairobi-based think tank Power Shift Africa.
This approach takes a leaf from the developed country playbook. There are divergence among developed countries on the issue of finance, particularly on delivering on pledges. The European Union provides a higher quantum of finance than the United States, French contribution for instance relies more on loans than grants. Yet there is a semblance of a common position when it comes to dealing with developing countries on the issue. This is exactly what the developing country members are choosing to do.
“Developing countries understand that in a group that has more than 130 parties, with varying levels of development and economy, divergences of opinions are par for course. What matters is how these are managed while keeping an eye on the main prize: ensuring developed countries meet their commitments of providing support,” said a negotiator from an advanced developing country.
“These discussions are taking place, we are trying to engage with countries like China to address the issue of debt, allocation floors, but these are not fault lines that could see the G77 and China breakdown,” said a senior African negotiator.
Staying together makes sense, and if that means quieter discussions on some issues or postponing them, then that is the path the G77 and China have adopted. Urmi Goswami
Donald Trump is not even in office yet and is already filling his shadow government team with China hardliners and protective tariff advocates. He was the first to nominate Marco Rubio as Secretary of State (whom Beijing calls a China-basher and has so far barred from entering the country). Rubio will be joined by future Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, an advocate of high US punitive tariffs on all Chinese imports. Trump is being advised by former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. His latest bestseller, “No Trade is Free,” is intended to prepare Washington for Trump’s upcoming China era 2.0.
Mike Waltz completes the cloverleaf as Trump’s designated National Security Advisor. The Economist describes him as a “China hawk” who “sometimes echoes the existential rhetoric of the early Cold War.” Trump calls him an “expert on the threats posed by China, Russia, Iran and global terrorism.” In an interview with Fox News, Waltz coined the slogan: “When you see ‘Made in China,’ put it down. It’s not just a jobs issue, it’s a national security issue.”
The old accusation that China is a nation of counterfeiters and dumping is back. However, Waltz’s warnings are also directed against more modern methods of how China manipulates the market and public opinion. He claims that Beijing is using IT and artificial intelligence (AI), spying on the economy and military, stealing tech secrets, blueprints and chips. And using social media as virtual stormtroopers.
Simple software piracy is out; complex high-tech manipulation and image PR is in. In semi-annual reports, companies such as Microsoft decode Beijing’s cyberattacks and how it uses social media for disinformation campaigns and deepfakes. Beijing’s embassy in the US angrily dismissed the Microsoft report as full of prejudice and “malicious speculation.”
The bottom line is the realization that China’s workbench for the world in the IT and AI age has turned into a high-tech forgery for influencing the world and creating fake news.
I sometimes reminisce about simpler times when China was only pilloried for its counterfeit products. After Beijing’s admission to the WTO in 2000, the market economy went wild and fake factories “sprang up like bamboo shoots after the first spring rain,” as they say in Chinese. Every foreign brand and luxury product was faked, even seemingly similar Haribo gummy bears were imitated. They tasted awful.
Shameless forgeries dominated small talk among business people in Beijing. China would disguise its counterfeiting frenzy as a “shansai” culture of imitation 山寨文化. Critics spoke of a counterfeiting swamp. Avant-garde artist Ai Weiwei, who was working in Beijing at the time, summed up the Zeitgeist. He called his studio “Fake,” pronounced “Fuck.”
The West looked on, initially more flabbergasted than alarmed. This was a tradition – Immanuel Kant was already amazed by China’s skillful forgers 250 years ago (although it is not clear whether he meant it approvingly or indignantly). In his lectures on physical geography between 1756 and 1796, he said: “The Chinese cheat extremely artificially. They can sew a torn piece of silk back together so nicely that the most observant merchant would not notice; and they mend broken porcelain with copper wire in such a way that no one notices the crack at first. He is not ashamed if he is caught in the scam. Only insofar as it revealed some clumsiness.” (Kant, Complete Edition, Volume 9)
The traditional art of copying also fascinated the China expert Richard Wilhelm. After studying the antique markets in Beijing, he wrote in his 1926 essay “Collectors, dealers and forgers.” “In China, the ratio of forgeries to genuine objects has been estimated at 2 to 1. I consider this estimate to be very optimistic and would like to increase it to at least 999 to 1, and still would call this figure very modest.”
As a correspondent, I came across the strangest fakes, such as copies of expensive watches. I was particularly impressed by an “A. Lange und Söhne, Glashütte.” The case, movement and leather strap looked elegant. But the highlight was a joke built in by the counterfeiters. They included a movable plastic roulette disk with “Casino Las Vegas” printed on it into the dial, hoping to appeal to the gambling instincts of Chinese buyers. I bought the watch for 30 euros in the Beijing department store Sanlitun Yaxiu 三里屯雅秀商场, where you could order fake watches from the catalog.
Around the year 2000, enterprising counterfeiters found out that they could earn more from books that they wrote themselves but marketed under the names of well-known authors and publishers than from pirated books. In 2002, I was offered volumes 5 to 8 of the Chinese Harry Potter edition at book markets in Wuhan, even though Joanne K. Rowling was still writing her fifth volume at the time.
The plagiarists had made up new Harry Potter adventures, copying texts from other fantasy fairy tales. They produced their work in underground print shops with a cover and a false ISBN. They called it “Weishu” (伪书 fake books). In 2006, I visited the bestselling author Ye Yonglie in Shanghai. He showed me 45 “Weishu” books marketed under his name. The reputation of dozens of renowned Chinese authors was tarnished in this way.
The biggest political counterfeiter, however, is China’s government and its propaganda departments. Since the founding of the People’s Republic in October 1949, all CP media have manipulated the news, retouching photos in particular to remove people who had suddenly fallen out of favor before publication or to embellish the photos of Beijing’s leaders. In December 1949, Mao had all other people removed from a group photo with Stalin, so that the only thing left to see in China was how close comrades Mao and Stalin were. China’s Communist People’s Daily had its own photo editor who was only responsible for such manipulations.
The performance artist Zhang Dali 张大力 came across thousands of such manipulated photos between 1950 and 1980 when he gained access to Chinese image archives from 2004 to 2011. The Mao-Stalin photo is one of the 133 exhibits he picked for his project “China’s Historical Photo Archive” and his exhibition “The Second History” 第二历史 shown at the Canton Art Museum in 2010. Zhang Dali said about his work: “What I reveal with the photos is just the tip of the iceberg. Nothing in that world is real or original.”
In symposia, photo editors and cultural critics discussed how the great manipulation took place and what it meant. The debates of the time can still be found on the internet today.
Until shortly before Xi Jinping rose to power at the end of 2012, China’s artists were at least able to discuss such phenomena in a relatively tolerant atmosphere. Today, Xi has such revelations branded as “historical nihilism.” This applies in particular to the critical reflection on the model soldier and truck driver Lei Feng, who died in an accident in 1962 at the age of 22. In 2006, the Beijing publishing house Sanlian published a biography on how Lei Feng became a figurehead of the revolution. It revealed that most of the photos with which Beijing indoctrinates China’s youth to learn from the revolutionary idol Lei Feng to this day are manipulated. According to his diaries, 19 photos alone were recreated and staged after his death. “Our country needed a hero,” wrote Zhang Dali.
Today, modern copyright laws and Beijing’s interest in protecting its own innovations and patents have closed the chapter on China’s traditional counterfeiters of goods and products, including the simple procedures for retouching photos. The razor blades used to process the negatives have long since become museum pieces. Avant-garde and photo artist Zhang warned early on about the influence of new technologies on mass visual culture. Today, artificial intelligence and deepfakes are the methods of Chinese counterfeiters for political manipulation and the exercise of power.
Snake gourd by the meter – in the village of Suqian, in Jiangsu province, the Trichosanthis fructus are hung up to dry. The gourds are used in traditional Chinese medicine. When dried, they are believed to help against all kinds of ailments, including coughs and phlegm – perfect for the cold season.
The picks that Donald Trump has announced for his new cabinet in recent weeks have caused reactions ranging from astonishment to bewilderment. However, Taiwan’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs François Wu welcomes the appointment of Marco Rubio as Foreign Minister, which he considers a very good friend of Taiwan. “Donald Trump wants to make America great again and we are thinking about what kind of positive role we can play in this.”
Wu believes cooperation with Taiwan is in Donald Trump’s interest, especially because of Taiwan’s electronics industry. Angela Köckritz spoke with Wu about the challenges of his office and the country’s “Not Today” policy.
Regarding the damaged submarine cables south of the Swedish island of Öland, the Chinese freighter “Yi Peng 3” is suspected of sabotaging the critical infrastructure. Beijing has so far denied any knowledge of the incident, and investigations are ongoing. The incident sheds light on the progress made in the coordination between NATO states and the remaining shortfalls in how such incidents are handled.
“The West remains vulnerable, because the suspicious behavior of the Chinese ship could and should have been noticed earlier Ü the transponder signal was switched on,” writes Lisa-Martina Klein in her analysis. However, the technical requirements for a comprehensive picture of the situation in the region are still in the early stages and could take years to develop.
One of the most controversial questions at COP29 is: Which countries should contribute to the new NCQG financial target? The high-income and heavily polluting emerging economies – for example, China – are unwilling to contribute. Developing countries do not demand China’s participation, although the country is an important lender for many of them, a fact that is hardly discussed at the climate conference. Urmi Goswami analyzes the (good) reasons for this.
In Taiwan, you are used to living with a high level of uncertainty. Now, with the election of President Donald Trump, you have to face a new level of it: unpredictability.
I am aware that Mr. Trump has an image of unpredictability among Europeans. However, based on our experience with him during his first presidency, we have no reason to share this perception with the Europeans. And when we look at the people he has gradually brought into his administration, I believe we have good reason to expect very close and smooth cooperation with the USA.
For example, the new Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is a very good friend of Taiwan. Donald Trump wants to make America great again, and we are thinking about what kind of positive role we can play in this.
There are very different voices in the new American cabinet. Elon Musk, for example, compared Taiwan to Hawaii and shared the Communist Party’s view that the country is an “integral part” of China.
In a democracy there will always be very different political opinions, a president cannot decide everything. But we have to look at common interests. Take a look at the semiconductor industry, because that is something Trump has criticized.
He claimed that Taiwan stole the chip business from the US.
With one dollar earned with the production of a semiconductor, 38 percent is going to the US, 12 percent is going to Japan, 12 percent to South Korea, 11 percent to the European Union, and 11 percent is going to Taiwan. The US earns the majority of the profit from semiconductor production. The semiconductor business is an ecosystem. There is the design part, the foundry and the packaging part. The US still dominates the design part, but Europe and Taiwan also plays an important role. The most important design partner for TSMC is IMEC in Brussels. The machines to produce chips are made in Netherlands ASML and German technology also plays a very important part in it.
The semiconductor industry is a shared ecosystem. There are so many common interests between Taiwan, the US, and the EU, and this makes the common ground very large for our common future.
Both Europe and Asia gear up for a new era of transactional diplomacy. And as far as Taiwan is concerned, Trump has made it very clear what he wants: more investment in the semiconductor industry. TSMC is already investing in Arizona, Germany and Japan. What else could be on the negotiating table?
Beyond semiconductor production there is a very important industry in Taiwan that people tend to forget. We all need to stock big quantities of data. This data is stored on servers. 90 percent of servers are made in Taiwan. Working with Taiwan is in the very strong interest of the US. For the past 10 years, Taiwan has already started to diversify its investments in the world. In 2013, our investment in China accounted for 84 percent of our investment worldwide. Last year, it went down to 8 percent, this year it will be going down to 7 percent. Those investments from Taiwan are directed to the US, Europe, Germany, France, the Czech Republic, Japan, South Asia, and India. We can offer a lot, not only in the electronics industry, which is our strongest part. So I think for Donald Trump working with Taiwan corresponds very strongly with American interests.
The other question, of course, is security. He declared that the US was not that different from an insurance company and that Taiwan should pay a higher price.
We already pay for our own defense because Taiwan does not have any security treaty, unlike South Korea, Japan, or the Philippines. Taiwan will be very happy to buy new weapons, if America agrees to sell them to Taiwan. The problem of the past is that many countries didn’t want to work with Taiwan on the security issue and sell us weapons. We already increased our national defense by more than 80 percent in the past eight years, and we will be very dedicated to it in the future. We know we have to show to the world that we have a very strong will to defend ourselves. The security of the region does not only concern Taiwan, but is also in the interest of the EU and European countries, for example regarding the freedom of navigation in the region.
There is a debate in the US about whether American soldiers should risk their lives for Taiwan if Taiwan is not doing enough for its defense. What do you think of this?
Our national defense budget is already 20 percent of our total government budget. That is already quite high, higher than France, Germany and the US. With a population of 23 million, the Taiwanese military personnel is over 180,000 people. That is the same size as the German and French armies and much higher than Italy’s. The pressure that Taiwan is facing is not the same as other countries. For example, when South Koreans and Japan want to buy weapons, they do not face many difficulties. But we do. We will of course continue with our military reforms, but it is not only up to us to stop the Chinese hostility we need to work with the whole world to maintain the peace. We have this “Not Today” Policy.
What do you mean by that?
We want Xi Jinping to draw the conclusion ”Today is not a good day for invading Taiwan.” It is composed of three pillars. The first one is the very strong will to defend ourselves. The second one is the credibility of democratic military powers in the region. Every month, the US holds military drills in the region. Germany just sent their frigate through the Taiwan Strait, then the French, and the Netherlands. We also have Turkey, Great Britain, and even Italy sent an aircraft carrier to work with the Japanese navy. This all sends a very important message to China. The third pillar will be the support of the international community to support Taiwan to join international organizations.
Taiwan’s foreign policy faces the major challenge that only eleven countries and the Holy See officially recognize Taiwan. However, Donald Trump values personal loyalty more than anything else. How can you build a close personal relationship in the face of these obstacles?
For me, it is just a new form of working with other countries. Compared with other countries, we have a huge network of 111 foreign missions in the world. More and more, we can meet officials unofficially. A new form of life doesn’t need recognition from another life. It just functions well. Taiwan functions well. And regarding the Trump administration, we are sure that Marco Rubio knows Taiwan very well, and so would the cooperation between Taiwan and Trump’s government.
Parts of the Taiwanese population are skeptical whether the US would really come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of an attack. China is trying to reinforce this doubt with disinformation campaigns to signal to the Taiwanese population: You will be alone, better find a way to work with us. Will Trump’s unpredictability amplify this sentiment?
China, of course, will try to persuade Taiwanese people not to trust the US. However, the majority of Taiwanese have confidence in our relationship with the USA. I don’t believe that Germany, France, and the USA will abandon Taiwan. After all, we have relations between our societies. The support of Taiwan is increasing in the democratic world.
What do you hope or expect from Germany?
We have already completed the first step of building a new semiconductor factory in Germany. It is a very strong national interest of Germany and Taiwan. So, based on this very strong common issue of interest, I hope that the exchange between Germany and Taiwan will go further and further.
After the discovery of damaged undersea cables south of the Swedish island of Öland earlier this week, it only took a few hours for naval vessels from several NATO countries to begin tailing suspicious vessels, including “Yi Peng 3,” a cargo ship sailing under the Chinese flag.
China has signaled that it will cooperate with the Swedish and Danish authorities. The Foreign Ministry in Beijing said on Thursday that it would remain in contact with the parties involved and work together to ensure the safety of the international underwater infrastructure. Spokesman Lin Jian commented on questions about a Chinese ship in Danish waters and the investigations by Finland and Sweden. He said he was not aware of any details about the ship.
German, Swedish and Finnish authorities assume that the two submarine fiber optic cables BCS East-West and C-Lion1 were sabotaged; corresponding investigations have been initiated by the responsible national law enforcement authorities. It remains unconfirmed whether the freighter has been detained or even boarded by the crews of the Danish Navy’s patrol vessels, as the media reported on Wednesday evening. The Danish Defense Command only wrote on the short message service X that they were in the vicinity of the “Yi Peng 3.” The nationality of the captain could not be clarified either.
The swift coordination shows that a lot has happened in NATO since the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines and the damage to the Baltic Connector gas pipeline by the Chinese ship “NewNew Polar Bear” in October 2023. In early 2023, the Western defense alliance set up a coordination cell with the aim of uniting all players in the field of underwater infrastructure in the NATO countries – operators, industry and governments.
On the military side, NATO states agreed to set up a Maritime Center for Security of Critical Undersea Infrastructure, based at Maritime Command (Marcom) in Northwood, UK. This is also where the data in the current case came together. And: Since the beginning of the year, each NATO country has appointed one central contact person for maritime infrastructures.
However, the incident also shows that the West remains vulnerable, because the suspicious behavior of the Chinese vessel could and should have been discovered earlier – the transponder signal was switched on, as it was on the “NewNew Polar Bear” at the time.
With the opening of the maritime headquarters (Commander Task Force Baltic, CTF Baltic) in October, the countries bordering the Baltic Sea now have a central coordination center under the umbrella of the naval command in Rostock. A spokesperson for the German-led maritime headquarters Commander Task Force Baltic, which was only opened in October, told Table.Briefings: “CTF Baltic is involved against the background of regional responsibility for the Baltic Sea. With regard to the current incidents involving data cables at sea, the German Navy is in constant contact with the responsible and relevant authorities, both nationally and within the Alliance.”
However, the technical requirements for a comprehensive situational picture of the region, fed, for example, from data from ships, drones, and maritime reconnaissance aircraft, including satellite images and other security-relevant actors, are still being established. This would allow suspicious behavior to be detected early on – and should also have a deterrent effect.
So far, the attacks have not resulted in any significant supply disruptions. In the current case, the data was rerouted quickly. Following the damage to the Balticconnector pipeline, Finland could cover its gas requirements with imported liquefied gas.
The situation would be different for the LNG pipeline “Europipe” between Germany and Norway, which supplies around 19 million European households. A sudden disruption, especially in winter, would seriously jeopardize the energy supply for households and the European economy.
In Germany, there is also the question of jurisdiction. Outside the German territorial sea, the Federal Police are involved in patrols to protect critical infrastructure. However, only the German Navy can take action against a military opponent, and it can only act internally if requested to do so. On the other hand, the surveillance of maritime infrastructure is not within the remit of the Navy. This means that there is not only a lack of coordination when it comes to averting danger. In the event of an emergency, it will require swift, legally secure coordination between the German government, the federal states and the military.
It is one of the most contentious questions at COP29: Which countries should contribute to the new financial target, the NCQG? High-income and heavily polluting emerging economies – such as China – are unwilling to take on payment obligations. Developing countries are not demanding China’s participation, even though the country is a major lender for many of them, particularly in Africa. This issue is rarely discussed at the climate conference. And there are good reasons for that.
Indebtedness exacerbated by climate change-induced extreme weather events and impacts is one of the drivers of the developing countries’ demand that grants and highly concessional loans form the core of the climate finance provided by rich industrialized countries.
Low-middle-income and low-income countries are particularly crippled by debt. It limits the fiscal space to take measures that would accelerate the energy transition and the pace at which these countries shift their developmental trajectory.
No conversation on climate finance that is fit for purpose can avoid the question of debt. Yet, the discussions on avoiding indebtedness in Baku are marked by an obvious silence. There is little mention of China, which relies on loans and export credits to give financial assistance to other developing countries.
Addressing the World Leaders Climate Action Summit at COP29, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said “Since 2016, China has provided and mobilized more than 177 billion yuan (24.5 billion US dollars) of project funds in support of other developing countries climate response”
A study by the Washington DC-based think tank World Resources Institute finds that between 2013 and 2022, China provided and mobilized 45 billion US dollars to developing countries. Delving into the elements of this money, the study finds that about 26 percent, or 11,7 billion is in the form of export credits. These are loans provided by China EXIM and guarantees or insurance provided by SINOSURE. In comparison, export credits account for 3 percent of funds provided by developed countries.
Despite this, discussions on the new collective quantified goal on finance tiptoe around the debt that China holds. That subject is taboo. Negotiators involved in the two-year-long discussions say that China has made it clear that the UNFCCC and the discussion on the new climate finance goal are not the appropriate spaces for discussion debt. That conversation belongs outside the UN climate process.
For many countries, including many African countries and least developed countries, addressing the issue of debt is critical, if not more, as the “quantum” or amount of the new goal. Take Kenya, for example, a middle-income country, 67 percent of its budget goes to service the country’s debt. Not all of it is climate-related but the high burden of debt and debt servicing constrains the ability of a country like Kenya to take measures to reduce emissions, increase resilience to climate change, and ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
“If the fiscal space does not allow you to access finance, then you cannot. No amount of quantum agreed here at Baku is relevant unless you address the fiscal space,” said a senior negotiator from Africa.
Given its criticality, why then are the developing countries under the umbrella of the G77 and China underplaying the issue of debt? While important, it is a matter of priority and sequencing.
“The Paris Agreement is very clear, it emphasizes that developed countries must provide leadership and developing countries have to be supported,” said Ali Mohamed, Chair of the Africa Group and Special Climate Envoy of President William Ruto of Kenya.
“Debt matters, clearly but here in the UNFCCC, the focus must be on ensuring the developed industrialized countries. The NCQG is about climate finance provided and mobilized by developed countries for developing ones,” explained a diplomat from a small island state.
China’s reticence about talking debt notwithstanding, negotiators from other big and advanced developing countries, and even the more vulnerable developing countries are of the view that a “good finance deal” will require the developing country bloc to remain united. “The G-77 and China have presented a united front, and they will remain so. They have taken steps to underscore their unity, putting forward a collective ask of 1.3 trillion US dollar figure collective finance goal,” said Mohamed Adow, founding director of the Nairobi-based think tank Power Shift Africa.
This approach takes a leaf from the developed country playbook. There are divergence among developed countries on the issue of finance, particularly on delivering on pledges. The European Union provides a higher quantum of finance than the United States, French contribution for instance relies more on loans than grants. Yet there is a semblance of a common position when it comes to dealing with developing countries on the issue. This is exactly what the developing country members are choosing to do.
“Developing countries understand that in a group that has more than 130 parties, with varying levels of development and economy, divergences of opinions are par for course. What matters is how these are managed while keeping an eye on the main prize: ensuring developed countries meet their commitments of providing support,” said a negotiator from an advanced developing country.
“These discussions are taking place, we are trying to engage with countries like China to address the issue of debt, allocation floors, but these are not fault lines that could see the G77 and China breakdown,” said a senior African negotiator.
Staying together makes sense, and if that means quieter discussions on some issues or postponing them, then that is the path the G77 and China have adopted. Urmi Goswami
Donald Trump is not even in office yet and is already filling his shadow government team with China hardliners and protective tariff advocates. He was the first to nominate Marco Rubio as Secretary of State (whom Beijing calls a China-basher and has so far barred from entering the country). Rubio will be joined by future Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, an advocate of high US punitive tariffs on all Chinese imports. Trump is being advised by former US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. His latest bestseller, “No Trade is Free,” is intended to prepare Washington for Trump’s upcoming China era 2.0.
Mike Waltz completes the cloverleaf as Trump’s designated National Security Advisor. The Economist describes him as a “China hawk” who “sometimes echoes the existential rhetoric of the early Cold War.” Trump calls him an “expert on the threats posed by China, Russia, Iran and global terrorism.” In an interview with Fox News, Waltz coined the slogan: “When you see ‘Made in China,’ put it down. It’s not just a jobs issue, it’s a national security issue.”
The old accusation that China is a nation of counterfeiters and dumping is back. However, Waltz’s warnings are also directed against more modern methods of how China manipulates the market and public opinion. He claims that Beijing is using IT and artificial intelligence (AI), spying on the economy and military, stealing tech secrets, blueprints and chips. And using social media as virtual stormtroopers.
Simple software piracy is out; complex high-tech manipulation and image PR is in. In semi-annual reports, companies such as Microsoft decode Beijing’s cyberattacks and how it uses social media for disinformation campaigns and deepfakes. Beijing’s embassy in the US angrily dismissed the Microsoft report as full of prejudice and “malicious speculation.”
The bottom line is the realization that China’s workbench for the world in the IT and AI age has turned into a high-tech forgery for influencing the world and creating fake news.
I sometimes reminisce about simpler times when China was only pilloried for its counterfeit products. After Beijing’s admission to the WTO in 2000, the market economy went wild and fake factories “sprang up like bamboo shoots after the first spring rain,” as they say in Chinese. Every foreign brand and luxury product was faked, even seemingly similar Haribo gummy bears were imitated. They tasted awful.
Shameless forgeries dominated small talk among business people in Beijing. China would disguise its counterfeiting frenzy as a “shansai” culture of imitation 山寨文化. Critics spoke of a counterfeiting swamp. Avant-garde artist Ai Weiwei, who was working in Beijing at the time, summed up the Zeitgeist. He called his studio “Fake,” pronounced “Fuck.”
The West looked on, initially more flabbergasted than alarmed. This was a tradition – Immanuel Kant was already amazed by China’s skillful forgers 250 years ago (although it is not clear whether he meant it approvingly or indignantly). In his lectures on physical geography between 1756 and 1796, he said: “The Chinese cheat extremely artificially. They can sew a torn piece of silk back together so nicely that the most observant merchant would not notice; and they mend broken porcelain with copper wire in such a way that no one notices the crack at first. He is not ashamed if he is caught in the scam. Only insofar as it revealed some clumsiness.” (Kant, Complete Edition, Volume 9)
The traditional art of copying also fascinated the China expert Richard Wilhelm. After studying the antique markets in Beijing, he wrote in his 1926 essay “Collectors, dealers and forgers.” “In China, the ratio of forgeries to genuine objects has been estimated at 2 to 1. I consider this estimate to be very optimistic and would like to increase it to at least 999 to 1, and still would call this figure very modest.”
As a correspondent, I came across the strangest fakes, such as copies of expensive watches. I was particularly impressed by an “A. Lange und Söhne, Glashütte.” The case, movement and leather strap looked elegant. But the highlight was a joke built in by the counterfeiters. They included a movable plastic roulette disk with “Casino Las Vegas” printed on it into the dial, hoping to appeal to the gambling instincts of Chinese buyers. I bought the watch for 30 euros in the Beijing department store Sanlitun Yaxiu 三里屯雅秀商场, where you could order fake watches from the catalog.
Around the year 2000, enterprising counterfeiters found out that they could earn more from books that they wrote themselves but marketed under the names of well-known authors and publishers than from pirated books. In 2002, I was offered volumes 5 to 8 of the Chinese Harry Potter edition at book markets in Wuhan, even though Joanne K. Rowling was still writing her fifth volume at the time.
The plagiarists had made up new Harry Potter adventures, copying texts from other fantasy fairy tales. They produced their work in underground print shops with a cover and a false ISBN. They called it “Weishu” (伪书 fake books). In 2006, I visited the bestselling author Ye Yonglie in Shanghai. He showed me 45 “Weishu” books marketed under his name. The reputation of dozens of renowned Chinese authors was tarnished in this way.
The biggest political counterfeiter, however, is China’s government and its propaganda departments. Since the founding of the People’s Republic in October 1949, all CP media have manipulated the news, retouching photos in particular to remove people who had suddenly fallen out of favor before publication or to embellish the photos of Beijing’s leaders. In December 1949, Mao had all other people removed from a group photo with Stalin, so that the only thing left to see in China was how close comrades Mao and Stalin were. China’s Communist People’s Daily had its own photo editor who was only responsible for such manipulations.
The performance artist Zhang Dali 张大力 came across thousands of such manipulated photos between 1950 and 1980 when he gained access to Chinese image archives from 2004 to 2011. The Mao-Stalin photo is one of the 133 exhibits he picked for his project “China’s Historical Photo Archive” and his exhibition “The Second History” 第二历史 shown at the Canton Art Museum in 2010. Zhang Dali said about his work: “What I reveal with the photos is just the tip of the iceberg. Nothing in that world is real or original.”
In symposia, photo editors and cultural critics discussed how the great manipulation took place and what it meant. The debates of the time can still be found on the internet today.
Until shortly before Xi Jinping rose to power at the end of 2012, China’s artists were at least able to discuss such phenomena in a relatively tolerant atmosphere. Today, Xi has such revelations branded as “historical nihilism.” This applies in particular to the critical reflection on the model soldier and truck driver Lei Feng, who died in an accident in 1962 at the age of 22. In 2006, the Beijing publishing house Sanlian published a biography on how Lei Feng became a figurehead of the revolution. It revealed that most of the photos with which Beijing indoctrinates China’s youth to learn from the revolutionary idol Lei Feng to this day are manipulated. According to his diaries, 19 photos alone were recreated and staged after his death. “Our country needed a hero,” wrote Zhang Dali.
Today, modern copyright laws and Beijing’s interest in protecting its own innovations and patents have closed the chapter on China’s traditional counterfeiters of goods and products, including the simple procedures for retouching photos. The razor blades used to process the negatives have long since become museum pieces. Avant-garde and photo artist Zhang warned early on about the influence of new technologies on mass visual culture. Today, artificial intelligence and deepfakes are the methods of Chinese counterfeiters for political manipulation and the exercise of power.
Snake gourd by the meter – in the village of Suqian, in Jiangsu province, the Trichosanthis fructus are hung up to dry. The gourds are used in traditional Chinese medicine. When dried, they are believed to help against all kinds of ailments, including coughs and phlegm – perfect for the cold season.
