Incidents between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea are now occurring on a monthly basis – and every time, the question arises: Is a military escalation imminent? Angela Köckritz took the opportunity at the Munich Security Conference to discuss the risky security situation in the region with Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo. Manalo immediately clarified one thing: “The Philippines will not sacrifice its sovereignty in the South China Sea.”
Manila wants to maintain close security alliances with the US, but also keep China as its most important trading partner. This requires skillful balancing between deterrence and diplomacy, says Manalo. He attaches great importance to a closer partnership with Europe and Germany: “We have a common interest in ensuring the peace and stability not only of the South China Sea, but of the entire Indo-Pacific region.”
Omid Nouripour, member of the German parliament and China rapporteur for the Green parliamentary group, also sheds light on Germany’s role in dealing with China in today’s opinion piece. Nouripour writes that the next German government must coordinate its approach more closely with its European partners to act with a single voice.
He explains that China remains a key trading and economic partner for Germany and Europe. “However, the growing dependencies in certain sectors require a strategic realignment.”
There have been numerous incidents between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea in recent years. How high is the risk of a military escalation?
These incidents have occurred quite regularly, especially in the last two years. The possibility of these incidents becoming more severe would certainly escalate tensions and even lead to more than that. And that’s something that we have been trying to avoid. But of course, trying to avoid them does not mean we will have to sacrifice or give up our sovereign rights. We are, of course, resolved to, let’s say, settle whatever differences we have through diplomatic means, but not at the expense of our interests.
Despite the geopolitical tensions, China is your biggest trading partner. How can you continue economic cooperation without jeopardizing your security?
That is, of course, a challenge. We are reaching out to our friends in like-minded countries to strengthen ourselves not only diplomatically or militarily, but also economically, and not to be too dependent on any one country. By becoming more economically resilient, we improve our economic security and, ultimately, our defense security. We are intensifying partnerships with countries inside and outside the region. We are now in negotiations with the EU on a free trade agreement.
The USA is your main security partner. There are voices in the new US administration, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has reaffirmed his “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines’ security. But others have also called for a “grand bargain” with China. Trump even spoke out in favor of the idea of a G2 group with China. Are you worried the Philippines’ security could be sacrificed in a transnational deal?
Well, I can only answer that question based on the actual meetings and discussions we’ve had with the officials of the new administration. I had a meeting yesterday with Secretary Rubio. The United States is very consistent in how it commits to our relationship. It is firm and will continue. In fact, we have already agreed that our officials will begin discussions to see how we can promote cooperation in a wide number of sectors, not only the military or defense, but in areas such as agriculture, food security, and energy.
In my conversation with Minister Rubio yesterday, we agreed that our commitment is not tied to any particular government, but is based on our shared history and our shared interests, which are and always will be permanent. So they are not beholden to any particular person or administration.
Another open question is how the new US government will stand on Taiwan, your direct neighbor.
Well, the Taiwan situation has always been a situation of concern and tension. Our position on Taiwan is clear. Of course, we support the one-China policy. But if you look at the map, you will see that the Philippines is only 70 or 60 nautical miles from the southern tip of Taiwan. Also, about 150,000 Filipinos live and work in Taiwan. Therefore, any serious incident or even conflict in Taiwan will have a direct impact on the Philippines. We have direct interests with Taiwan and are an ally of the United States. So, we must ensure that the situation remains peaceful and that any resolution of the Taiwan issue, whatever it may be, is achieved peacefully.
The US is now allowed to use more bases in the Philippines. Are you worried that this might anger the Chinese government?
Well, first of all, we have no bases in the Philippines, our constitution does not grant that. I think the misconception is that these new sites that were set up recently in the Philippines, which are actually part of our enhanced defense cooperation agreement with the US, are really sites. And the intention is to use them as sites to enhance, for example, interoperability of Philippine-US forces in addressing natural disasters or providing humanitarian assistance. And this, in fact, was exemplified by the recent natural disasters we had in the northern part of the Philippines. And some of these sites were used to provide supplies to the affected areas. So, I think some countries are trying to make it appear that these sites are aimed at a particular country, when, in fact, they’re aimed really at enhancing our capabilities, especially in providing disaster relief and working with partners such as the US. At the same time, we have other arrangements, not bases, but we have a visiting forces arrangement with the United States. But these are not aimed at any particular country. They’re aimed at enhancing the defense capabilities of the Philippines. And that’s, sadly, the impression that some countries are trying to create is that the Philippines is caught in a new Cold War
The Philippines is seeking security cooperation with other countries, with Japan and Australia playing an important role. Last year, Boris Pistorius was the first German defense minister to visit the Philippines. And both countries have agreed to cooperate in the field of security. What is the current status?
I think we are developing a good partnership. It is good that Germany is now developing a greater interest in our region, the Indo-Pacific, including the South China Sea. And I think we have a common interest in ensuring the peace and stability of not only the South China Sea but the whole Indo-Pacific region. The fact that German naval vessels have visited us shows that what happens in the South China Sea or the Indo-Pacific has a global impact.
If there is a conflict in our region, it will not only be limited to our region, but will be felt in the rest of the world. The South China Sea is a strategic waterway for trade and, of course, for resources. We have always taken the position that the Indo-Pacific should be free and open and freedom of navigation should be guaranteed in the South China Sea. I think Germany’s peresence here further strengthens our view, which is based on international law.
What do you expect from the new German government?
Of course, we would like our relationship to be expanded further. Our President Marcos visited Germany last year. I think it was a very successful visit because we agreed to expand cooperation to new areas. We see common interests where like-minded countries recognize the importance of international law and a rules-based order. We believe that economic prosperity and the well-being of people are vital for our security. So, our relationship is based on common interests that are not tied to specific parties or officials.
Would you welcome a regular transit of German naval vessels in the South China Sea?
Yes, as long as they are in line with international law, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, we certainly would have no complaints. This applies not only to German ships, but also to ships from other countries such as France, Great Britain, Japan and the United States. China can also pass as long as it is in accordance with international law. We cannot allow the use of the South China Sea to be restricted or limited to only one country. We will always support freedom of navigation.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is known for not mincing words when speaking with the Chinese government. Are you disappointed that she may be leaving office?
(laughs) Well, I met her many times. I wish her all the best and I certainly had a good relationship with her. I consider her a dear colleague.
Enrique Manalo is the Foreign Minister of the Philippines. Among other things, he served as Philippine Ambassador to the United Kingdom and was the Permanent Representative of the Philippines to the United Nations.
It was an exceptional security conference. One journalist who has been a long-time observer said that he had never experienced anything like it in 25 years. The speech by US Vice President J.D. Vance, who lashed out against the European Union, accusing the Europeans of censorship efforts using bizarre examples while openly supporting the European far-right, was unforgettable. The European audience was still stunned in their seats when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took the stage immediately after Vance – and took full advantage of the moment.
Wang celebrated multilateralism and the international rule of law. He emphasized the importance of the United Nations in a world experiencing “incessant chaos and confusion.” Emphasized that all countries are equal “regardless of size or strength.” And called for “increasing the representation and say of developing countries in the international system.”
In a thinly veiled dig at the USA, Wang Yi said that some countries believed “might makes right.” In doing so, they had opened a Pandora’s box: “The law of the jungle.” China, on the other hand, would uphold international law and stand for true multilateralism. He emphasized that his country is a member of more than 600 international conventions, contributes more than 20 percent of the United Nations budget, is a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement and is the largest producer of clean energy. China provides “the greatest certainty in this uncertain world.”
Wang stressed that all parties and interest groups should be involved in the peace negotiations on Ukraine – and hit a sore spot with the Europeans, who had been caught off guard by the phone call between US President Donald Trump and Putin shortly beforehand. In a nutshell: After the furious speech by the previous speaker, which only touched on global political issues in passing, Wang seemed like the only adult in the room.
“He basically said everything the Europeans would have wanted to hear from the US,” said a European diplomat. “If the Chinese are now saying that they are in favor of multilateralism, should we realign ourselves?” asked a German businessman. And Jian Gao, Director General of the China Public Diplomacy Association Beijing Club, wrote on social media: “I wonder why there are still people in Germany who cheer for the US when the Trump administration sells them out for a good price.”
However, things are not quite as rosy as Wang Yi presented them on stage at the Munich Security Conference. China’s neighboring states have long accused the country of superpower politics. Its overcapacities are destabilizing economies around the world. The Chinese government also tends to ignore all unwelcome international commitments or arbitration rulings – be it in economic, human rights or international jurisdiction. The war between Russia and Ukraine, in which China consistently presents itself as a force for peace, has been fueled by the massive supply of dual-use components to Russia.
However, the fact is that China scored a PR win at this security conference. The scene is almost reminiscent of the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2017, when Xi Jinping defended globalization against the attacks of the newly sworn-in first Trump administration and momentarily appeared to the Europeans almost as a shining light.
This time, however, the shock is much greater than in 2017. Last week, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced in Brussels that peacekeeping in Europe is now the responsibility of European NATO members and that the US will not contribute soldiers to peacekeeping in Ukraine. The protection force would also not be able to invoke Article Five in the event of a Russian attack. He said that the priority of the USA from now on is to secure its own borders and “the peer competitor China,” which “threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific,” explained Hegseth.
This has left Ukraine and the Europeans shocked. They are trying to grasp the new geopolitical reality at conferences, in background discussions and side events. Experts believe that the Europeans will not be able to compensate for a complete withdrawal of the USA in the next five to seven years. At more than one event, people wondered: “Are we alone now?” And: “Where is Europe’s place between American, Russian and Chinese superpower politics?“
This is certainly in the interests of the Chinese government, which has long been trying to free Europe from its embrace with the US. However, the situation is currently very different in Asia. Unlike the Europeans, America’s Asian allies have been given very clear security assurances. In talks with his counterparts from Japan, South Korea and the Philippines this weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the “ironclad commitment” to the security of partners, “backed by America’s unmatched military strength, including nuclear capabilities.”
Rubio and his counterparts from Japan and South Korea also reaffirmed their “unwavering trilateral partnership.” Rubio thus showed that the United States wanted to continue the trilateral security pact. It is considered a significant diplomatic success for the Biden administration to have brought the two neighboring states together despite the historically strained relationship.
Meanwhile, the US State Department has changed its position on Taiwan’s status. A passage on the Department’s website that previously stated that it did not support Taiwan’s independence has been removed, as reported by Reuters and others. Elsewhere, however, Washington continues to oppose unilateral changes to the status quo. Moreover, the website now states that the USA supports Taiwan’s membership in international organizations as long as this is “applicable.” The US government apparently wants to prevent China from drawing the conclusion that it is pursuing a similar policy in Taiwan as it did in Ukraine.
The German government’s China strategy is part of the EU’s joint policy. In the face of China’s growing economic and geopolitical influence, Europe must formulate a united, rules-based response. Beijing is massively expanding its production capacities, deliberately creating dependencies and deepening its cooperation with Russia.
Meanwhile, the Chinese leadership has become more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad – with threats against Taiwan, military provocations in the South China Sea and an increasingly confrontational foreign policy. An economically strong China is an opportunity for Europe – as long as it abides by international rules. That is why Europe’s China policy must focus on fair competition, political stability and safeguarding the rules-based world order.
In order to maintain a competitive level playing field with China, Germany needs to understand China. To do this, we need to expand our China expertise. Existing structures such as the China Education Network, the China Competence Center and various projects of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research provide valuable expertise, but need long-term support and a clear target group focus. Companies, local authorities and schools must be prepared explicitly for interacting with China.
The economic ties between Germany and China are complex. While China is a key sales market for many German companies, access for European companies in China remains challenging. Only with sound knowledge and a clear strategy can Germany retain its economic and geopolitical agency.
The German government’s China strategy emphasizes civil society as an essential foundation of bilateral relations. Exchanges with China must not be limited to economic and political contacts – town partnerships, academic cooperation, and cultural projects are equally important in promoting direct relations between people. Especially in times of growing geopolitical tensions, intensifying these exchanges is crucial. In this way, resilient social bridges can be built even when political cooperation becomes difficult.
An effective China policy requires not only clear goals, but also consistent and coherent implementation. Germany must align its strategy more closely with its European partners in order to speak with one voice. Only a coordinated European approach can ensure lasting fair competitive conditions, safeguarding strategic interests and a rules-based international order.
An important building block for this is the consistent Europeanization of Sino-German government consultations. The next German government must actively support this process and ensure that the China strategy not remains a mere political concept, but results in tangible, coordinated measures at the European level.
China remains a key trading and economic partner for Germany and Europe. However, the growing dependencies in certain sectors require a strategic realignment. The German government therefore relies on de-risking – i.e., the targeted reduction of dependencies without a complete decoupling. The goal is a diversified, resilient economy that can act from a position of strength, with China as a partner, competitor and systemic rival.
1. Securing supply chains, reducing dependencies
The pandemic and geopolitical tensions have revealed the vulnerability of global supply chains. Critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical technology, rare earths and semiconductors are heavily dependent on Chinese goods – a risk that needs to be minimized. Over two-thirds of active pharmaceutical ingredients in Europe come directly or indirectly from China, but not enough measures have been taken to counteract this. Production in Europe must be promoted in a targeted manner in order to create more independence.
2. Protecting critical infrastructure and strategic investments
China’s investments in critical infrastructure – such as Cosco’s stake in the Port of Hamburg – have shown how strategically Beijing exploits economic dependencies. Ports are essential for our export economy. It was therefore right to limit Cosco’s influence. But we need to systematically protect our critical infrastructure. The planned KRITIS umbrella law must be passed quickly to counter risks at an early stage.
3. Diversification: more trading partners, less dependency
In 2023, the bilateral trade volume between Germany and China was 254 billion euros. However, the imbalance is striking: While Germany exported 97 billion euros, imports totaled 157 billion euros. To strengthen economic resilience, sales markets, production locations and raw material sources must be diversified.
4. Taking companies to task
Companies carry a share of the responsibility for reducing risks. Those who make themselves unilaterally dependent on the Chinese market not only jeopardize their own business, but also Germany’s economic stability and security. Companies must therefore assess their risks realistically and increasingly bear them themselves.
The German government pursues a sustainable raw materials strategy based on four approaches: more efficient use, a circular economy, domestic raw materials extraction and diversified imports. In the agricultural sector, too, China remains an important trading partner. Cooperation should be geared more towards transforming food systems and sustainable production methods.
Economic policy has long since also become security policy. Climate action is an essential aspect of global security policy. Germany and China are key players in environmental protection, and progress in the circular economy and resource efficiency are crucial to reducing environmental pollution and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, climate action and economic resilience must go hand in hand.
Cooperation with China remains necessary, but we must also draw clear boundaries. Our goal is not to wage a trade war, but to represent our interests in a balanced way. Our experience with Russia has painfully shown how dangerous economic dependencies on autocratic regimes are. The interdependencies with China are even more complex, which is why we need to reduce our dependencies more quickly, diversify our supply chains and protect our critical infrastructure.
Germany should continue government consultations with China, but focus more on a European approach. Close coordination with European and transatlantic partners is essential to reduce strategic dependencies and preserve economic sovereignty. In addition, we are committed to settling territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas in accordance with international maritime law.
Germany must approach China from a position of strength. Economic cooperation is essential, but it must not lead to strategic dependency. We need a smart China strategy always coordinated at the European level to ensure economic resilience and political sovereignty in equal measure.
Omid Nouripour is a member of the German parliament and China rapporteur for the Green parliamentary group. He is a full member of the Economic Affairs Committee and a deputy member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Defense Committee and Finance Committee.
Editor’s note: More than ever, discussing China means engaging in controversial debate. We aim to reflect the diversity of opinions to give you an insight into the breadth of the discussion. Op-eds do not reflect the opinion of the editorial team.
The Harry Potter franchise is highly popular in China. So popular, in fact, that Shanghai will be home to the world’s third official “Making of Harry Potter” amusement park – the other two parks launched by entertainment company Warner Bros are located in London and Tokyo. On a total area of 53,000 square meters, visitors will be able to take a glimpse behind the scenes of the Harry Potter films and immerse themselves in the famous scenes from the series. In November 2024, visitors got a taste of what this could look like at a subway station in Shanghai, where the mysterious platform 9¾, where the Hogwarts Express awaits its students, was recreated as a promo for the Miniso retail chain.
Incidents between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea are now occurring on a monthly basis – and every time, the question arises: Is a military escalation imminent? Angela Köckritz took the opportunity at the Munich Security Conference to discuss the risky security situation in the region with Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo. Manalo immediately clarified one thing: “The Philippines will not sacrifice its sovereignty in the South China Sea.”
Manila wants to maintain close security alliances with the US, but also keep China as its most important trading partner. This requires skillful balancing between deterrence and diplomacy, says Manalo. He attaches great importance to a closer partnership with Europe and Germany: “We have a common interest in ensuring the peace and stability not only of the South China Sea, but of the entire Indo-Pacific region.”
Omid Nouripour, member of the German parliament and China rapporteur for the Green parliamentary group, also sheds light on Germany’s role in dealing with China in today’s opinion piece. Nouripour writes that the next German government must coordinate its approach more closely with its European partners to act with a single voice.
He explains that China remains a key trading and economic partner for Germany and Europe. “However, the growing dependencies in certain sectors require a strategic realignment.”
There have been numerous incidents between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea in recent years. How high is the risk of a military escalation?
These incidents have occurred quite regularly, especially in the last two years. The possibility of these incidents becoming more severe would certainly escalate tensions and even lead to more than that. And that’s something that we have been trying to avoid. But of course, trying to avoid them does not mean we will have to sacrifice or give up our sovereign rights. We are, of course, resolved to, let’s say, settle whatever differences we have through diplomatic means, but not at the expense of our interests.
Despite the geopolitical tensions, China is your biggest trading partner. How can you continue economic cooperation without jeopardizing your security?
That is, of course, a challenge. We are reaching out to our friends in like-minded countries to strengthen ourselves not only diplomatically or militarily, but also economically, and not to be too dependent on any one country. By becoming more economically resilient, we improve our economic security and, ultimately, our defense security. We are intensifying partnerships with countries inside and outside the region. We are now in negotiations with the EU on a free trade agreement.
The USA is your main security partner. There are voices in the new US administration, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has reaffirmed his “ironclad” commitment to the Philippines’ security. But others have also called for a “grand bargain” with China. Trump even spoke out in favor of the idea of a G2 group with China. Are you worried the Philippines’ security could be sacrificed in a transnational deal?
Well, I can only answer that question based on the actual meetings and discussions we’ve had with the officials of the new administration. I had a meeting yesterday with Secretary Rubio. The United States is very consistent in how it commits to our relationship. It is firm and will continue. In fact, we have already agreed that our officials will begin discussions to see how we can promote cooperation in a wide number of sectors, not only the military or defense, but in areas such as agriculture, food security, and energy.
In my conversation with Minister Rubio yesterday, we agreed that our commitment is not tied to any particular government, but is based on our shared history and our shared interests, which are and always will be permanent. So they are not beholden to any particular person or administration.
Another open question is how the new US government will stand on Taiwan, your direct neighbor.
Well, the Taiwan situation has always been a situation of concern and tension. Our position on Taiwan is clear. Of course, we support the one-China policy. But if you look at the map, you will see that the Philippines is only 70 or 60 nautical miles from the southern tip of Taiwan. Also, about 150,000 Filipinos live and work in Taiwan. Therefore, any serious incident or even conflict in Taiwan will have a direct impact on the Philippines. We have direct interests with Taiwan and are an ally of the United States. So, we must ensure that the situation remains peaceful and that any resolution of the Taiwan issue, whatever it may be, is achieved peacefully.
The US is now allowed to use more bases in the Philippines. Are you worried that this might anger the Chinese government?
Well, first of all, we have no bases in the Philippines, our constitution does not grant that. I think the misconception is that these new sites that were set up recently in the Philippines, which are actually part of our enhanced defense cooperation agreement with the US, are really sites. And the intention is to use them as sites to enhance, for example, interoperability of Philippine-US forces in addressing natural disasters or providing humanitarian assistance. And this, in fact, was exemplified by the recent natural disasters we had in the northern part of the Philippines. And some of these sites were used to provide supplies to the affected areas. So, I think some countries are trying to make it appear that these sites are aimed at a particular country, when, in fact, they’re aimed really at enhancing our capabilities, especially in providing disaster relief and working with partners such as the US. At the same time, we have other arrangements, not bases, but we have a visiting forces arrangement with the United States. But these are not aimed at any particular country. They’re aimed at enhancing the defense capabilities of the Philippines. And that’s, sadly, the impression that some countries are trying to create is that the Philippines is caught in a new Cold War
The Philippines is seeking security cooperation with other countries, with Japan and Australia playing an important role. Last year, Boris Pistorius was the first German defense minister to visit the Philippines. And both countries have agreed to cooperate in the field of security. What is the current status?
I think we are developing a good partnership. It is good that Germany is now developing a greater interest in our region, the Indo-Pacific, including the South China Sea. And I think we have a common interest in ensuring the peace and stability of not only the South China Sea but the whole Indo-Pacific region. The fact that German naval vessels have visited us shows that what happens in the South China Sea or the Indo-Pacific has a global impact.
If there is a conflict in our region, it will not only be limited to our region, but will be felt in the rest of the world. The South China Sea is a strategic waterway for trade and, of course, for resources. We have always taken the position that the Indo-Pacific should be free and open and freedom of navigation should be guaranteed in the South China Sea. I think Germany’s peresence here further strengthens our view, which is based on international law.
What do you expect from the new German government?
Of course, we would like our relationship to be expanded further. Our President Marcos visited Germany last year. I think it was a very successful visit because we agreed to expand cooperation to new areas. We see common interests where like-minded countries recognize the importance of international law and a rules-based order. We believe that economic prosperity and the well-being of people are vital for our security. So, our relationship is based on common interests that are not tied to specific parties or officials.
Would you welcome a regular transit of German naval vessels in the South China Sea?
Yes, as long as they are in line with international law, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, we certainly would have no complaints. This applies not only to German ships, but also to ships from other countries such as France, Great Britain, Japan and the United States. China can also pass as long as it is in accordance with international law. We cannot allow the use of the South China Sea to be restricted or limited to only one country. We will always support freedom of navigation.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is known for not mincing words when speaking with the Chinese government. Are you disappointed that she may be leaving office?
(laughs) Well, I met her many times. I wish her all the best and I certainly had a good relationship with her. I consider her a dear colleague.
Enrique Manalo is the Foreign Minister of the Philippines. Among other things, he served as Philippine Ambassador to the United Kingdom and was the Permanent Representative of the Philippines to the United Nations.
It was an exceptional security conference. One journalist who has been a long-time observer said that he had never experienced anything like it in 25 years. The speech by US Vice President J.D. Vance, who lashed out against the European Union, accusing the Europeans of censorship efforts using bizarre examples while openly supporting the European far-right, was unforgettable. The European audience was still stunned in their seats when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi took the stage immediately after Vance – and took full advantage of the moment.
Wang celebrated multilateralism and the international rule of law. He emphasized the importance of the United Nations in a world experiencing “incessant chaos and confusion.” Emphasized that all countries are equal “regardless of size or strength.” And called for “increasing the representation and say of developing countries in the international system.”
In a thinly veiled dig at the USA, Wang Yi said that some countries believed “might makes right.” In doing so, they had opened a Pandora’s box: “The law of the jungle.” China, on the other hand, would uphold international law and stand for true multilateralism. He emphasized that his country is a member of more than 600 international conventions, contributes more than 20 percent of the United Nations budget, is a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement and is the largest producer of clean energy. China provides “the greatest certainty in this uncertain world.”
Wang stressed that all parties and interest groups should be involved in the peace negotiations on Ukraine – and hit a sore spot with the Europeans, who had been caught off guard by the phone call between US President Donald Trump and Putin shortly beforehand. In a nutshell: After the furious speech by the previous speaker, which only touched on global political issues in passing, Wang seemed like the only adult in the room.
“He basically said everything the Europeans would have wanted to hear from the US,” said a European diplomat. “If the Chinese are now saying that they are in favor of multilateralism, should we realign ourselves?” asked a German businessman. And Jian Gao, Director General of the China Public Diplomacy Association Beijing Club, wrote on social media: “I wonder why there are still people in Germany who cheer for the US when the Trump administration sells them out for a good price.”
However, things are not quite as rosy as Wang Yi presented them on stage at the Munich Security Conference. China’s neighboring states have long accused the country of superpower politics. Its overcapacities are destabilizing economies around the world. The Chinese government also tends to ignore all unwelcome international commitments or arbitration rulings – be it in economic, human rights or international jurisdiction. The war between Russia and Ukraine, in which China consistently presents itself as a force for peace, has been fueled by the massive supply of dual-use components to Russia.
However, the fact is that China scored a PR win at this security conference. The scene is almost reminiscent of the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2017, when Xi Jinping defended globalization against the attacks of the newly sworn-in first Trump administration and momentarily appeared to the Europeans almost as a shining light.
This time, however, the shock is much greater than in 2017. Last week, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced in Brussels that peacekeeping in Europe is now the responsibility of European NATO members and that the US will not contribute soldiers to peacekeeping in Ukraine. The protection force would also not be able to invoke Article Five in the event of a Russian attack. He said that the priority of the USA from now on is to secure its own borders and “the peer competitor China,” which “threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific,” explained Hegseth.
This has left Ukraine and the Europeans shocked. They are trying to grasp the new geopolitical reality at conferences, in background discussions and side events. Experts believe that the Europeans will not be able to compensate for a complete withdrawal of the USA in the next five to seven years. At more than one event, people wondered: “Are we alone now?” And: “Where is Europe’s place between American, Russian and Chinese superpower politics?“
This is certainly in the interests of the Chinese government, which has long been trying to free Europe from its embrace with the US. However, the situation is currently very different in Asia. Unlike the Europeans, America’s Asian allies have been given very clear security assurances. In talks with his counterparts from Japan, South Korea and the Philippines this weekend, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized the “ironclad commitment” to the security of partners, “backed by America’s unmatched military strength, including nuclear capabilities.”
Rubio and his counterparts from Japan and South Korea also reaffirmed their “unwavering trilateral partnership.” Rubio thus showed that the United States wanted to continue the trilateral security pact. It is considered a significant diplomatic success for the Biden administration to have brought the two neighboring states together despite the historically strained relationship.
Meanwhile, the US State Department has changed its position on Taiwan’s status. A passage on the Department’s website that previously stated that it did not support Taiwan’s independence has been removed, as reported by Reuters and others. Elsewhere, however, Washington continues to oppose unilateral changes to the status quo. Moreover, the website now states that the USA supports Taiwan’s membership in international organizations as long as this is “applicable.” The US government apparently wants to prevent China from drawing the conclusion that it is pursuing a similar policy in Taiwan as it did in Ukraine.
The German government’s China strategy is part of the EU’s joint policy. In the face of China’s growing economic and geopolitical influence, Europe must formulate a united, rules-based response. Beijing is massively expanding its production capacities, deliberately creating dependencies and deepening its cooperation with Russia.
Meanwhile, the Chinese leadership has become more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad – with threats against Taiwan, military provocations in the South China Sea and an increasingly confrontational foreign policy. An economically strong China is an opportunity for Europe – as long as it abides by international rules. That is why Europe’s China policy must focus on fair competition, political stability and safeguarding the rules-based world order.
In order to maintain a competitive level playing field with China, Germany needs to understand China. To do this, we need to expand our China expertise. Existing structures such as the China Education Network, the China Competence Center and various projects of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research provide valuable expertise, but need long-term support and a clear target group focus. Companies, local authorities and schools must be prepared explicitly for interacting with China.
The economic ties between Germany and China are complex. While China is a key sales market for many German companies, access for European companies in China remains challenging. Only with sound knowledge and a clear strategy can Germany retain its economic and geopolitical agency.
The German government’s China strategy emphasizes civil society as an essential foundation of bilateral relations. Exchanges with China must not be limited to economic and political contacts – town partnerships, academic cooperation, and cultural projects are equally important in promoting direct relations between people. Especially in times of growing geopolitical tensions, intensifying these exchanges is crucial. In this way, resilient social bridges can be built even when political cooperation becomes difficult.
An effective China policy requires not only clear goals, but also consistent and coherent implementation. Germany must align its strategy more closely with its European partners in order to speak with one voice. Only a coordinated European approach can ensure lasting fair competitive conditions, safeguarding strategic interests and a rules-based international order.
An important building block for this is the consistent Europeanization of Sino-German government consultations. The next German government must actively support this process and ensure that the China strategy not remains a mere political concept, but results in tangible, coordinated measures at the European level.
China remains a key trading and economic partner for Germany and Europe. However, the growing dependencies in certain sectors require a strategic realignment. The German government therefore relies on de-risking – i.e., the targeted reduction of dependencies without a complete decoupling. The goal is a diversified, resilient economy that can act from a position of strength, with China as a partner, competitor and systemic rival.
1. Securing supply chains, reducing dependencies
The pandemic and geopolitical tensions have revealed the vulnerability of global supply chains. Critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical technology, rare earths and semiconductors are heavily dependent on Chinese goods – a risk that needs to be minimized. Over two-thirds of active pharmaceutical ingredients in Europe come directly or indirectly from China, but not enough measures have been taken to counteract this. Production in Europe must be promoted in a targeted manner in order to create more independence.
2. Protecting critical infrastructure and strategic investments
China’s investments in critical infrastructure – such as Cosco’s stake in the Port of Hamburg – have shown how strategically Beijing exploits economic dependencies. Ports are essential for our export economy. It was therefore right to limit Cosco’s influence. But we need to systematically protect our critical infrastructure. The planned KRITIS umbrella law must be passed quickly to counter risks at an early stage.
3. Diversification: more trading partners, less dependency
In 2023, the bilateral trade volume between Germany and China was 254 billion euros. However, the imbalance is striking: While Germany exported 97 billion euros, imports totaled 157 billion euros. To strengthen economic resilience, sales markets, production locations and raw material sources must be diversified.
4. Taking companies to task
Companies carry a share of the responsibility for reducing risks. Those who make themselves unilaterally dependent on the Chinese market not only jeopardize their own business, but also Germany’s economic stability and security. Companies must therefore assess their risks realistically and increasingly bear them themselves.
The German government pursues a sustainable raw materials strategy based on four approaches: more efficient use, a circular economy, domestic raw materials extraction and diversified imports. In the agricultural sector, too, China remains an important trading partner. Cooperation should be geared more towards transforming food systems and sustainable production methods.
Economic policy has long since also become security policy. Climate action is an essential aspect of global security policy. Germany and China are key players in environmental protection, and progress in the circular economy and resource efficiency are crucial to reducing environmental pollution and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, climate action and economic resilience must go hand in hand.
Cooperation with China remains necessary, but we must also draw clear boundaries. Our goal is not to wage a trade war, but to represent our interests in a balanced way. Our experience with Russia has painfully shown how dangerous economic dependencies on autocratic regimes are. The interdependencies with China are even more complex, which is why we need to reduce our dependencies more quickly, diversify our supply chains and protect our critical infrastructure.
Germany should continue government consultations with China, but focus more on a European approach. Close coordination with European and transatlantic partners is essential to reduce strategic dependencies and preserve economic sovereignty. In addition, we are committed to settling territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas in accordance with international maritime law.
Germany must approach China from a position of strength. Economic cooperation is essential, but it must not lead to strategic dependency. We need a smart China strategy always coordinated at the European level to ensure economic resilience and political sovereignty in equal measure.
Omid Nouripour is a member of the German parliament and China rapporteur for the Green parliamentary group. He is a full member of the Economic Affairs Committee and a deputy member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Defense Committee and Finance Committee.
Editor’s note: More than ever, discussing China means engaging in controversial debate. We aim to reflect the diversity of opinions to give you an insight into the breadth of the discussion. Op-eds do not reflect the opinion of the editorial team.
The Harry Potter franchise is highly popular in China. So popular, in fact, that Shanghai will be home to the world’s third official “Making of Harry Potter” amusement park – the other two parks launched by entertainment company Warner Bros are located in London and Tokyo. On a total area of 53,000 square meters, visitors will be able to take a glimpse behind the scenes of the Harry Potter films and immerse themselves in the famous scenes from the series. In November 2024, visitors got a taste of what this could look like at a subway station in Shanghai, where the mysterious platform 9¾, where the Hogwarts Express awaits its students, was recreated as a promo for the Miniso retail chain.
