Interview Ai Weiwei + Leading Sinologists on 2023

Dear reader,

The China.Table editorial team wishes you a fantastic new year. Be it business, scientific, civic or private, may your projects go according to plan.

The year 2022 has been turbulent and has constantly brought us, as journalists, and you, as China professionals, unexpected surprises. 2023 begins again dramatically with a pandemic wave that has a significant impact in and outside China.

We asked the critical artist Ai Weiwei for his opinion on this. He sees no leadership plan behind the hasty opening but suspects pure chaos. Will the obvious mistakes decisively weaken the regime? No, says Ai Weiwei. The party holds the reins too firmly for that.

Ai Weiwei also believes that the perception of China in Western media is almost always wrong. To shed some light for you, we asked leading China researchers for their expert opinion on the trends of the new year. The topics are the economy, technology, trade, supply chains, Taiwan, human rights and the stability of the Communist Party. This way, you can start the new year well-informed.

Have a good start to the year, the month and the week!

Your
Finn Mayer-Kuckuk

‘The regime is still very confident’

It was a turbulent year for China: We’ve seen strict lockdowns, one of the most important party gatherings in 30 years, an uproar on the streets and an unexpected end of zero-Covid. What surprised you the most this year in China and would you consider 2022 a milestone/a game changer in recent Chinese history, domestically and globally?

What happens today in China speaks for itself. Despite seeming clarity, both onlookers and active participants, both inside and outside China, are somehow confused. Confusion results from the country’s unreasonable decision-making and -implementing that is disconnected from common sense and science. No one knows why the dynamic zero-Covid policy had to be implemented; these measures very brutally obliterated basic attributes of human existence and left people unsupported by families, communities, friends, and medical systems. In absolute terms, people were governed like animals, which surprised us all.

Traditionally, humanity has been abundantly reflected upon in Chinese culture, both by regimes and by commoners. What China experienced in the past three years during the pandemic is unprecedented.

The sudden reopening is in contradiction with the government’s previous logic and abruptly betrays the general public’s confidence in the government and its policies. It also results in an enormous amount of Covid cases; almost everyone has been infected with Covid. There is thus a lot of panic and death. It brings the legitimacy of the regime and its policies into question once again.

Do you share the belief that people in China could consider the sudden end of the government’s zero-Covid restrictions as proof that protests do work? Do you see a new self-confident civil society on the rise? Or rather regret that the protests have unleashed a monster, in form of a sudden spike in sickness and Covid-deaths (ergo the government was right after all)?

I do not think there are any so-called civil rights movements in China. The reaction that we saw was like the reaction we would have when our hand gets caught in the door or when we bump our head on something. There are no conscious civil rights movements in China because there are no “citizens” as defined by Western society, referring to individuals who are aware of their source of information and make their opinions known in order to trigger reactions that will benefit society. China has always been under high-pressure censorship; all information received, and all expressions are heavily censored. Dissenting opinions are deleted and blocked, and people with dissenting opinions are arrested and imprisoned.

So, it is very wrong to think that the reopening means that the regime has softened its stance. The Chinese government is extremely confident in all aspects, and this will be reflected on their governance in the future.

Xi Jinping’s handling of Covid and the sudden end of the restrictions seem helpless, contradictious and chaotic from the outside. Is this a misconception of foreign China-watchers? Do you believe there is a strategy or a calculated outcome that the Chinese government is after? And since international flights could resume without quarantine measurements as early as January 2023: can the world go back to business as usual with China soon?  

The international media coverage of China will always be wrong regardless of perspective. How do you judge a disorderly government that is operating without logic? All your judgment will be proven wrong.

The policy that is implemented today does not mean that the regime is yielding to the protests. In fact, all the protestors have been arrested, and arrests are still ongoing. People do not react much to that. The main source of worries in China comes from economic problems, and these problems cannot be solved by the Party’s political correctness.

International society’s business relationships with China will resume to a level almost like before the pandemic because international trade depends on China to a large extent.  

What would be your advice to people in China that still want to protest and demand long-term change? 

I do not have advice to give. I once tried hard myself, held aspirations for change, and worked hard for it. At the moment, those who made the same kind of effort are in prison. Under a regime like that, nothing can really work. Autocratic regimes are there to crash down any need of building a civil society.

You once said political elites should be humbled by the power of art when it comes to social change. Do you perceive the white sheets of paper, the many memes and word-play-criticism on Chinese social media as some sort of artistic expression as well?  

I don’t think they are artistic expressions in a self-conscious way; these expressions are the way they are for lack of a better option. Besides expressing the wish for free expression, they embody an extreme kind of helplessness

What are your expectations and your biggest hope for China and the world in 2023? What are the greatest dangers we need to address immediately (Taiwan, Ukraine?)?  

I hope that in 2023, at the post-pandemic time, China can return to a semblance of normality. Regarding Taiwan, the PRC regime is striving for a solution, but I think the issue will persist for a long time. The issue of Taiwan is an international problem.

The greatest dangers today remain the conflicts between two worlds: the domineering West with its old kind of logic and its concepts of globalization v.s. newly developed countries including China, Russia, among others that seek further development and propose a different kind of order. It is difficult to reconcile these two worlds. In the future, this problem will become more prominent.

You left China years ago. What do you miss the most and are you ever afraid you’d lose touch with Chinese society and social developments while living abroad? Under what circumstances would you move back to China?  

What I miss is not China itself, but rather my right to travel freely. This right includes being able to go back to visit my relatives and friends

You lived in Berlin between 2015 and 2019. Your comments about Germany being authoritarian and hostile towards foreigners have been widely discussed and also politically instrumentalized. How do you feel about that outcry today, do you still feel misunderstood and a victim of a hypocritical perception of what being an outspoken artist means? 

As an artist, the first thing to consider is how to truthfully express my feelings. Authoritarian traits of Germany as rootedness and reality can be observed by everyone. It is a cultural problem, instead of something that can be changed by a person or at a certain period. In every country there are thoughts of authoritarianism, autocracy, and even Nazism. It’s just that every country expresses these thoughts under a different form and to a different degree. Germany, in this respect, shows key attributes of these thoughts, in my opinion. Every sentence of my criticism is right.

You are still one of the most quoted persons of Chinese origin in German media, your voice counts when people want to understand China better. You also defended the Olaf Scholz trip to Beijing after the party congress. What would be your advice now for German and European politicians when planning their “China strategies”? 

I never defended Olaf Scholz. What I said was that his behavior as a politician was not much different from other politicians that exist today. Germany is merely not hypocritically ingratiating itself with political correctness. It rather strives to meet their needs for their own interest. This does not deserve compliments. What needs to be advocated is political dialogue. A lot of countries seem to hold different opinions on the surface, but they make great efforts to humor China. Essentially, they are all the same. German politicians are not different from other politicians in Europe.

The German and European politicians do not need any advice for their strategies; no one needs any advice for any behavior, in fact. Their behavior comes from their survival needs. Politicians’ existing framework and survival needs are the main determinants of what they do.

Ai Weiwei, artist, born in 1957, currently lives in Portugal. In his works, he controversially deals with current social issues. In 2011, he was imprisoned in China for several months and subsequently banned from leaving the country. From 2015 to 2019, he lived in Berlin and taught at the University of the Arts. He then moved to the United Kingdom. Ai answered our questions in writing.

Assessments of leading China researchers on 2023

Directional struggle in the CP

“In 2023, the Communist Party is threatened with a test of strength. The discontent in the country and the resulting loss of confidence in Xi Jinping’s leadership have long since spread to the party as well. Some cadres fear ‘losing the Mandate of Heaven’ and call for a change of direction.

In addition, there is the significant influence of the private sector. Many party members have become rich through their involvement in business. They are opposed to those who want to uphold the party’s socialist ideals. And foreign and security policy is also volatile. A more nationalistic and confrontational current has formed within the party, declaring war on the traditionally more pragmatic and flexible direction.

The current lack of planning, organization, coordination, and communication on the part of the party can be primarily attributed to these internal party differences. The party appears paralyzed and thus lacking the ability to make decisions or take action. Fierce disputes over the right path and struggles for power will follow inevitably.”

Klaus Mühlhahn, Sinologist and President of Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen.

Xi wants to weaken the EU

“China-EU relations will continue to be shaped by Xi Jinping’s charm offensive, which began in the run-up to the G20 last November. Beginning with Macron’s official visit to Beijing, China will intensify its bilateral relations while downplaying the EU’s central authority, be it the Commission or the Parliament. In contrast to a closed China due to the zero-Covid policy, an economy in full opening will give Xi more power in his negotiations with European leaders. This is especially true as European capitals will remain concerned about the war in Ukraine and a stagnant economy. With such a different economic outlook in China’s favor, China’s charm offensive could be more successful than ever.”

Alicia García-Herrero, Chief Economist at the French bank Natixis and Associate Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST).

China emerges stronger from the conflict with the USA

“The conflict between China and the United States will intensify in 2023 – and China will gain strength in the process. For example, the tech war started by the Biden administration will lead to bottlenecks in the People’s Republic in the short term. But the localization strategy it forces will have positive consequences for Beijing in the medium term and ultimately even accelerate China’s (economic) rise. Irritations over Taiwan will also further strain bilateral relations. Geopolitically, the Taiwan Strait will become one of the central points of conflict in international politics.”

Eberhard Sandschneider, Partner at Berlin Global Advisors.

Dependency debate changes relationships

“In the course of the – primarily politically conducted – debate about excessive dependencies of the German economy on China, the relationship between the two economies will change. German companies will increasingly have to distance themselves from horizontal exchange relationships and instead rely on independent business models that are fully vertically positioned in Europe and China respectively. In the best case, German companies will thus remain fully engaged in the Chinese market, while supply dependencies that are considered critical will be reduced. However, the resulting more difficult access to the Chinese R&D and innovation complex, from which German companies have benefited substantially in recent years, becomes problematic.”

Markus Taube, Professor of East Asian Economics/China, University of Duisburg-Essen.

Resentment can break out again

“After the nationwide protests at the end of November 2022, the Chinese party-state will, in the name of ‘security,’ further expand its digital and human tools for social control. The merely pushed-away discontent could, depending on the extent of socio-economic crises, break out again: The experience of national and transnational solidarity, or existing organizational and ideational resources, makes students, workers/employees, and believers central social actors.”

Kristin Kupfer, Professor of Contemporary China Studies, Trier University.

Protests provided welcome reason for change of strategy

“The abrupt change from the zero-covid strategy to the lifting of all restrictions has led to considerable irritation among the population. Confidence in the policy has been dented as a result. The catalyst for the policy change was probably caused by the WHO’s announcement to declare the pandemic over in 2023. China did not want to be the last country with a massive Covid-19 spread. Many deaths among the elderly are now being accepted to achieve herd immunity. The protests provided a welcome reason for the change of strategy. The opening of the border, announced for early January, is the first step toward further opening.

Mitigating the effects of the pandemic and the zero-Covid strategy for the economy and society will be the focus in 2023. This includes boosting consumption, moderating the private sector, and tackling youth unemployment, among other things.”

Thomas Heberer, Professor of Political Science and East Asian Studies, University of Duisburg-Essen.

Economy suffers from chaotic opening

“China faces an uncertain future: the Chinese economy suffers greatly from aggravated Covid pandemic conditions after the chaotic opening, which will have a glaring impact on global supply chains; in addition, the economic conflict with the US and China is increasing with new American semiconductor trade regulations. The acute and planned sanctions by Western developed countries on Chinese tech companies will hinder access to Western markets, key raw materials, chip and battery manufacturing technologies, and services – all of which will slow the development of China’s innovative tech economy.

However, sanctions could also work in the opposite direction, with Chinese tech companies heading to other markets, such as Africa, and finding solutions that are less affected by sanctions.

The future of the EV industry in 2023 is difficult to predict; will Chinese companies be able to conquer the Western market? The decisive factors here are likely to be economic conditions, competition with other manufacturers, and fluctuating demand for EVs. The price development of strategic raw materials and legal conditions in the target countries (Supply Chain Act in Germany) will also influence profitability. Manufacturers such as Geely and BYD are well positioned in their market and also in cooperations/participations with Western producers.

The chip industry and battery manufacturing are essential to the Chinese economy. However, planned sanctions by Western countries will have a significant impact and will affect the development of China’s chip industry and battery manufacturing.”

Sigrun Abels and Tania Becker, China Center of the TU Berlin.

Xinjiang becomes severe problem for German automakers

“Xinjiang has become a symbol of human rights violations the PRC has been accused of. Forced labor will likely become the dominant issue in this area in 2023: For one thing, Germany’s Supply Chain Due Diligence Act will come into force in January. An EU counterpart will be debated in the European Parliament starting in May. Additionally, a just-published report from Sheffield Hallam University seeks to prove the involvement of the automotive industry – including Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz – in Uyghur forced labor. While direct evidence of coercion in Chinese programs nominally designed to eradicate poverty remains difficult, this will further fuel the controversy.”

Bjoern Alpermann, Professor of Contemporary China Studies, University of Würzburg.

Develop instruments to protect Taiwan

“Preparing for possible scenarios of violent conflict in the Taiwan Strait is also important for the EU and its member states. Is there a united position on how to respond to a military attempt by Beijing to annex Taiwan? What instruments could be used in this case? But European policy should focus primarily on what it can contribute to avert such a development. This goal should also form the decisive criterion for measures to upgrade and strengthen Taiwan. Speculation about when (no longer if) China might attack the island is not helpful in this regard.”

Gudrun Wacker, Senior Fellow Asia, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP)

A change of tone should not deceive

“What a difference a smile makes. The meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Bali has opened the floodgates for the resumption of personal exchanges between Europe and China as well. The revival of diplomacy gives hope that direct engagement will bring tangible benefits to European interests. However, a change in tone does not equate to substantial change in relations. Therefore, one should be wary: A temporary tactical opening of China could be misinterpreted as a serious opportunity.”

Mathieu Duchâtel, Director of the Asia Program at the Institut Montaigne, Paris.

More is needed than just economic stimulus programs

“Chinese (economic) policy focuses on stability for the year 2023. First of all, this is good news because after the political circus before and during the 20th Party Congress and the roller coaster ride of Covid policy, both Chinese citizens and the global community long for more predictability and less excitement. However, the question arises as to what the postulated stability goal will primarily focus on.

The stability of political conditions is likely to be the party’s top priority. The protests of last November were limited in scope, but they may have nevertheless frightened the party leadership. We do not know whether Xi Jinping was informed about the calls for his resignation voiced by some of the protesters. But even without this information, the parallel nationwide protests, though limited in each location, were a harbinger of the party leadership’s nightmare. So we can expect political surveillance of people and communications to increase rather than decrease.

Economic stability is more complicated to achieve. Stability requires revitalization here. The new Covid policy and the extensive lifting of travel restrictions are certainly necessary for this. But will they be enough? For the latter, confidence in the dynamism of the Chinese economy and the reliability of Chinese economic policy is needed – and not only from international trade and investment partners, but also from Chinese private enterprises, households and individuals. However, the party leadership was unable to dispel the impression that different standards apply to private and foreign companies than to state-owned or “state-supported” ones. The greatest hope for stabilization or revitalization therefore lies with the provinces and local governments. In all likelihood, they will push for more freedom.

New stimulus programs to boost the economy, similar to the one to combat the global financial crisis, do not seem sufficient for this. Rather, the Chinese system needs ideas and investment in the future viability of the “Chinese model” for longer-term political, economic and social stability. The frequently formulated vision of China’s future economy prosperity based on innovation and domestic consumption has yet to be realized. Surprises cannot be ruled out in economic policy either. In any case, things will remain interesting.”

Doris Fischer, Professor of China Business and Economics, University of Wuerzburg.

Qin Gang becomes new Foreign Minister

The former Chinese Ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, is China’s new Foreign Minister. The 56-year-old was Ambassador in Washington from July 2021 and before that Vice Foreign Minister (China.Table reported). He is considered a nationalist hardliner but appeared more moderate as Ambassador to the United States.

Qin replaces 69-year-old Wang Yi, who will become the new head of the Communist Party’s Foreign Affairs Commission following his ascension to the Politburo at the party congress in October. For Qin Wang, this is a step up; his party post is above the one of the Foreign Minister. Wang will thus prescribe the broad outlines of foreign policy that Qin will have to implement in the day-to-day diplomatic business. Wang Yi called on the United States on New Year’s Day to engage in dialogue with the People’s Republic. Mistakes made during the Cold War must be avoided, he said in his first public statement since assuming his new duties. flee

More countries introduce mandatory Covid testing for travelers

The high infection rates in China are causing concern worldwide. Many countries require travelers from China to test for Sars-CoV-2 before allowing entry:

the USA, Canada,
Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Malaysia,
France, Italy, Spain, Great Britain.

Morocco banned entries from China. Other countries, including Australia and the Philippines, are considering introducing mandatory testing. Germany does not require a test so far, but a discussion on the topic is starting. Bavaria is calling on the German government to introduce mandatory testing for Covid.

Conversely, as of January 8, quarantine is no longer mandatory for arriving travelers in China. The negative test proof is enough.

State media: peak of Covid wave passed

According to the state media, the current Covid wave has already peaked. In principle, this is in line with the expectations of epidemic experts. However, the credibility of official Chinese announcements remains low: nationwide, only one Covid death was reported on New Year’s Eve. In the meantime, the infection is being tracked via surveys of the population rather than via tests and the calculation of an official incidence.

What is certain, however, is that the number of cases remains high. Posts on social media indicate that many hospitals are still overloaded. Hearses continue to jam up in front of crematoria in Beijing and Shanghai. Even if the current wave should already subside again, experts expect another heavy wave before and after the Spring Festival around January 22.

China’s doctors are now pinning great hopes on drugs that are supposed to make the course of Covid infections milder. The country approved the active ingredient Molnupiravir from US supplier Merck on Friday. Pfizer’s Paxlovid already has approval; it is now to be distributed to hospitals in larger numbers; apparently, however, there has been a significant shortage here as well. There are also indigenous drugs: Azvudine developed originally for HIV and the antibody Meplazumab. fin

Xi’s speech: focus once again on photos

In his New Year’s speech, President Xi Jinping praised China’s pandemic policy. “Since Covid-19 struck, we have put the people first and put life first all along,” he said, according to the speech transcript released by state media. “We have adapted our Covid response in light of the evolving situation to protect the life and health of the people to the greatest extent possible.”

Other topics of his review included the 20th Party Congress, the Winter Olympics, and the Hainan Free Port. He emphasized, “China is a country closely linked with the world.” For the future, he announced that China would “perform miracles through hard work.” There is national unity, he said. China is on the right side of history.

The Chinese economy has reached a volume of ¥120 trillion, Xi said. According to official figures, it was ¥115 trillion in 2021. So from the president’s statement, the economy must have grown by a little over 4 percent. That was below the original growth target of about 5.5 percent. China’s economy is very robust and vital, Xi said nevertheless.

Much more attention than the speech itself was paid, as every year, to the newly erected photos in Xi’s study. One of them showed him this year with his predecessors Jiang Zemin (who died in 2022) and Hu Jintao (whom he had led out of the hall during the party congress). This may or may not be a sign that Hu has not fallen as far as was assumed after the party congress. fin

Elena Meyer-Clement – Understanding China’s society in detail

Elena Meyer-Clement is a Professor of Chinese Studies at the University of Copenhagen.

Elena Meyer-Clement learned Chinese during her school years. She traveled with school groups to Shanghai and Beijing. Meyer-Clement recalls finding the country and its people awful on her second visit. “The people saw us as strangers just as we saw them.” But that aversion did not last long; the then-student soon felt a connection to the locals, in everyday encounters, in exchanges of brief glances. “I remembered that because I later realized that my fascination with China had nothing to do with what was foreign, but what was common, despite all the differences.”

After school, Meyer-Clement studied sinology, philosophy, and political science in Hamburg and earned her doctorate in Tuebingen on political control structures in the Chinese film and music industries. At that time, she began to study the various forms of state power in China and the state’s attempts to influence society – a research focus to which she has remained true to this day. “I think looking at a country and its people from an outside perspective helps understand what the organization of living together in a society does to people,” she says. “We need a deep understanding of the interplay of politically manipulated structures and behavior to create a more just society.”

Islands of freedom despite all control

Since 2012, Meyer-Clement has been researching the transformation of rural regions and urbanization in China. This involves the behavior of local governments, conflicts over land use, and the resettlement of villagers. “I’m interested in how from the political leadership in Beijing to the village cadre attempts are made to control how people should live in a community.”

If asked what concerns her most about China at the moment, it is the escalation of global hostilities that would again strengthen nationalisms on all sides. “In this difficult climate, I am particularly moved to see courageous Chinese people standing up for a self-determined life and the protection of the weakest in society, despite the overwhelming power and violence of the state.” In her research, she encountered people in resettlement areas who, despite prohibitions, kept finding small plots of land to grow vegetables and maintain some of their freedom. “But I also met cadres who looked the other way at the right moment.”

Promoting dialogue between researchers

In addition to her projects on rural transformation, Meyer-Clement is part of the research network “Worldmaking from a Global Perspective: A Dialogue with China,” funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). “With the network, we are trying to promote dialogue with Chinese researchers across disciplines and are looking at the question of what we actually build our ideas of the world or worlds on, how they come into being or perish, and how they influence us.” She emphasizes that this exchange is especially relevant in today’s world, where ideas about how to live together on our planet “once again seem to be extremely divergent.” Svenja Napp

Officially, the Year of the Rabbit has not yet begun. It begins on Chinese New Year’s Day on January 22. However, some Chinese women are already stocking up on red rabbits, like in this picture from Wuhan. The past year of the tiger stood – in line with the character of a predator – for courage, but also for anger and aggression. The rabbit, on the other hand, is considered gentle, calm, friendly and patient. So starting the Year of the Rabbit early can’t hurt.

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