A huge Covid infection wave is still rolling across China, but an end is slowly in sight and the spring should usher in new optimism. Hong Kong opened a little earlier. The time has now come there to get back on track after the pandemic. But simply returning to normality will hardly be possible, because the special administrative region has taken a severe economic hit. Hong Kong’s economy plummeted by 3.2 percent in 2022, and exports even fell by almost 29 percent year-on-year, the worst value since 1953.
Hong Kong’s international reputation has also been tarnished by the crackdown on the democracy movement. Our Beijing team analyzes how the situation is supposed to pick up again, and what Singapore is doing better.
So China’s Covid entry restrictions are now a thing of the past. But those who were already looking forward to a plate of sizzling jiaozi during their visit to Beijing will probably have to wait until May. Visas are currently only available for first-degree family members and business travelers. Flights are also scarce, which drives up prices. But why does Beijing refuse to let tourists enter the country, while its own citizens are allowed to go back out into the world? It might be a political strategy, writes Fabian Peltsch in his analysis.
Instead of a China trip, we have a China Perspective. The spring festival finally brings families together again and, just like under many Christmas trees in the West, conflicts are bound to happen at such intense family celebrations over hot pots. Find out in our end-of-week column what Chinese parents are arguing about with their grown-up children, and where there is a lot of agreement this year.
While Chinese tourists are allowed to travel the world again after the end of zero-Covid, China continues to keep its own borders closed to foreign tourists. “At the moment, it is unfortunately not possible to apply for a tourist visa,” the official China visa office in Berlin explained on inquiry. So far, only business travelers and first-degree relatives from abroad are allowed to enter the People’s Republic. Students, too, can in principle apply for a visa again with corresponding invitations from Chinese host universities. However, as for tourist visas, a date for issuance “cannot be predicted at the moment.”
“We expect that tourists from Europe will be able to travel to China again by May 2023,” says Yang Ciyuan, managing director at the German-Chinese tour operator Sinorama based in Duesseldorf. He sees one reason for the delayed visa issuance in the limited number of flight connections between Europe and China, which now first have to be expanded again. “There are currently only about a tenth of the number of flights offered before the pandemic, so airline ticket prices are also still very high.”
Wolfgang Arlt, Director of COTRI, the market leader in studies of China’s tourism industry, sees a different rationale at play. “With the entry delay for tourists, China wants to avoid a broader mass of foreigners witnessing the current chaos, for example in the health care system.” For China, tourism is also always a political lever, Arlt says. Last Friday, Beijing announced that group tours of Chinese tourists would be allowed again to 20 countries starting on Feb. 6. What is striking, he adds, is that these mainly include countries that Beijing considers “friends of China,” such as Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Russia and Cuba.
“When South Korea installed a US missile defense system in 2017, Beijing’s tourism ministry promptly banned group tours to South Korea,” says Arlt, who just published the “China Outbound Tourism Handbook 2023” with tourism specialist Gary Bowerman. On the other hand, interest in group tours would decline more and more. “The days are gone when Chinese people stopped at tourist sights on buses and otherwise did not see much of the country.”
Overall, however, Chinese tourists remain far more important to Germany and Europe than vice versa, Arlt says. “The importance of German tourists is exceedingly low for the Chinese travel industry.” Nevertheless, there were and still are numerous travel agencies in Germany that specialize in trips to China and are now eagerly waiting for the country to open its doors to tourists once more. Not all of them have survived the three-year pandemic. One well-known case was the Hamburg-based tour operator China Tours, which filed for bankruptcy in February 2020 and has to start from scratch again with greatly reduced staff.
Especially subsidiaries of Chinese travel agencies were able to survive the pandemic by offering travel within China. Alex Seigel of Dragon Trip, an agency with offices in London, New York and Shanghai, told China.Table that his company focused on educational trips for international schools in China during the pandemic. Seigel also believes the country will open to tourists in early summer 2023, but it remains to be seen how the travel situation in China and tourist demand will have changed by then. Thanks to the domestic tourism of the past three years, the infrastructure of rural regions in particular is now better developed than it was before the pandemic. Seigel also expects that prices will have increased in many places by that time.
Yang of Sinorama shares a similar view: “Prices will probably be much higher than before the pandemic.” But the Ukraine war and a growing negative perception of China could also significantly curb the desire to travel to China. “The media here spreads mainly negative news. So the image of China is more negative than it was four years ago, especially among people who have never been to China.” Although China really does have a lot to offer as a travel destination, Yang says.
Johannes Fabrock has high hopes for the new year. “Thanks to the border opening, Hong Kong can now finally make use of one of its key locational advantages again,” the delegate of German business in Hong Kong rejoices. Many business representatives in Hong Kong are feeling the same way as Fabrock these days. After three years of strict pandemic control, the Chinese Special Administrative Region is finally on its way to returning to normality.
Hong Kong’s economy has suffered greatly during the pandemic. While China’s economy grew by three percent last year despite all the restrictions, estimates suggest that Hong Kong’s economy suffered a 3.2 percent slump. This is mainly due to the fact that Hong Kong’s business model as a “bridge to China” and efficient hub to many countries in Southeast Asia no longer functioned properly thanks to the government’s isolation policy. The tourists from mainland China, who are usually so eager to shop, were also absent.
But now the grand catch-up race is set to begin. Hong Kong opened its international borders last fall, even before China did. Finally, travelers from all over the world no longer had to undergo hotel quarantine. Since January 8, travel from Hong Kong to Mainland China is also finally possible again without isolation. Almost all border posts between Hong Kong and the Chinese metropolis of Shenzhen have been re-opened. The express train that takes travelers from central Hong Kong to Shenzhen in less than a quarter of an hour is also back in operation.
“The changes have been received with great relief in the local and international business community. Personal contact is indispensable for business success in China,” Fabrock reports. Accordingly, there is an enormous overdue demand among many companies to visit their China branches again and rekindle relations with colleagues, clients, suppliers and other business partners.
The border opening is a start. But here and there, not everything is running smoothly. For example, travelers currently still have to apply for a travel quota. 65,000 seats are available per day in both directions. Travel between Hong Kong and Shenzhen is also complicated by mandatory Covid testing in both directions within 48 hours before departure. Fabrock says there are also still some unanswered questions about visa issuance.
In October last year, Hong Kong announced a massive campaign to bring back international visitors to the city. This year, 500,000 airline tickets worth the equivalent of around €260 million are to be offered for free. Besides tourists, business travelers heading to Hong Kong are also expected to benefit from the campaign.
But as soon as the plans were announced, critics warned that it would take more than a few hospitality gifts for travelers. After “After four bitter years of political turmoil and Covid woes,” it would take “more than free air tickets to show that Hong Kong is back,” the South China Morning Post newspaper commented in an editorial. Not only the pandemic but also the government crackdown on the democracy movement has tarnished Hong Kong’s international reputation. The challenges are all the greater now “our regional rivals have swung their doors wide open,” the paper wrote.
Indeed, the competition has not been idle. Cities like Hong Kong’s all-time rival Singapore, as well as other players such as Bangkok or Seoul, have actively wooed companies and expats in recent years, for whom Hong Kong appeared less and less attractive. While Hong Kong’s economy suffered, Singapore’s economy grew again by around 3.5 percent last year, according to estimates. The boom is also evident on the real estate market, where historic record prices have recently been paid in Singapore. In Hong Kong, by contrast, prices dropped by an average of around 14 percent in 2022.
There is another big difference between Singapore and Hong Kong at the moment. Although Hong Kong has lifted most of its pandemic control measures, masks still have to be worn everywhere in the city. Joern Petring
Research was the love of his life. Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) said this in 2020 after stepping down as vice president of Taiwan. The epidemiologist had decided not to run again after four years in office and had returned to the Academia Sinica State Research Academy. But if he was needed, he would be ready at any time. That time now seems to have come. Taiwan’s presidential office confirmed media reports on Wednesday that the 71-year-old will take over as premier on Jan. 31.
After the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) election defeat in November, Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) announced his resignation and proposed a reshuffle of the cabinet. That is exactly what happened. It is expected that the names of the new ministers will be announced at a press conference on Friday morning. However, the appointment of Chen has already been leaked.
The fact that Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen is bringing her confidant Chen Chien-jen back from academia into politics for the last year of her second term in office comes as no surprise to most observers. Chen had been rumored as a possible candidate for premier for quite some time. But Chen up until recently had denied reports that he was on the shortlist for the job of head of government.
Within the DPP, Chen is considered a candidate of the center, who has managed so far not to antagonize any of the powerful party wings. He is repeatedly praised for his communication and negotiation skills. During his time as vice president, he invited opponents and supporters of same-sex marriage to the presidential palace for talks and repeatedly tried to build bridges. Chen is also fondly called big brother (大仁哥) by the president and his many supporters – alluding to a protagonist in a well-known Taiwanese soap opera who is considered warm and caring.
Chen is also Taiwan’s best-known epidemiologist and lectures at the renowned National Taiwan University. He received his Ph.D. in 1982 from the world-renowned American Johns Hopkins University. As Minister of Health, he played a decisive role in containing the first SARS epidemic in 2003. This time, too, the pandemic passed as smoothly in Taiwan as in almost no other country. In March 2022, he penned a guest article for the science magazine Nature, writing that in addition to science, trust, robust institutions, and social cohesion are needed to create a thriving society.
But Chen could not quite part with politics even after his return to science. In late 2021, he suddenly joined the Democratic Progressive Party – at the personal invitation of the president. During last year’s local elections, he also managed the campaign of the DPP candidate for mayor of Taipei Chen Shih-chung (陳時中). At times he was even considered a possible successor to President Tsai. With the election of Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) as the DPP’s new party chair, however, this prospect seems to have become a distant dream.
A devout Catholic, Chen traveled several times to the Vatican as the president’s special envoy, even after he retired from politics. Most recently to attend the funeral services for German Pope Benedict XVI. The Holy See is the only country in Europe that still maintains full diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan). In recognition of his scientific achievements, Pope Francis named Chen a full member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences in 2021.
The fact that Chen is no career politician only adds to his popularity among the population. He is valued above all for his contribution to medical research and Taiwan’s health care system. In his role as premier, however, he will have to engage in even more political trench warfare than before. It could also prove difficult for him to maintain his image as a calm communicator during the infamous question-and-answer sessions in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan. David Demes
Everyone celebrates the first days of the new year. But no day is as loud and fiery as the fifth. That is when the god of prosperity is celebrated. He promises wealth – if he is praised the right way. And that means, as here in the Guiyuan Temple in Wuhan: firecrackers and fireworks.
A huge Covid infection wave is still rolling across China, but an end is slowly in sight and the spring should usher in new optimism. Hong Kong opened a little earlier. The time has now come there to get back on track after the pandemic. But simply returning to normality will hardly be possible, because the special administrative region has taken a severe economic hit. Hong Kong’s economy plummeted by 3.2 percent in 2022, and exports even fell by almost 29 percent year-on-year, the worst value since 1953.
Hong Kong’s international reputation has also been tarnished by the crackdown on the democracy movement. Our Beijing team analyzes how the situation is supposed to pick up again, and what Singapore is doing better.
So China’s Covid entry restrictions are now a thing of the past. But those who were already looking forward to a plate of sizzling jiaozi during their visit to Beijing will probably have to wait until May. Visas are currently only available for first-degree family members and business travelers. Flights are also scarce, which drives up prices. But why does Beijing refuse to let tourists enter the country, while its own citizens are allowed to go back out into the world? It might be a political strategy, writes Fabian Peltsch in his analysis.
Instead of a China trip, we have a China Perspective. The spring festival finally brings families together again and, just like under many Christmas trees in the West, conflicts are bound to happen at such intense family celebrations over hot pots. Find out in our end-of-week column what Chinese parents are arguing about with their grown-up children, and where there is a lot of agreement this year.
While Chinese tourists are allowed to travel the world again after the end of zero-Covid, China continues to keep its own borders closed to foreign tourists. “At the moment, it is unfortunately not possible to apply for a tourist visa,” the official China visa office in Berlin explained on inquiry. So far, only business travelers and first-degree relatives from abroad are allowed to enter the People’s Republic. Students, too, can in principle apply for a visa again with corresponding invitations from Chinese host universities. However, as for tourist visas, a date for issuance “cannot be predicted at the moment.”
“We expect that tourists from Europe will be able to travel to China again by May 2023,” says Yang Ciyuan, managing director at the German-Chinese tour operator Sinorama based in Duesseldorf. He sees one reason for the delayed visa issuance in the limited number of flight connections between Europe and China, which now first have to be expanded again. “There are currently only about a tenth of the number of flights offered before the pandemic, so airline ticket prices are also still very high.”
Wolfgang Arlt, Director of COTRI, the market leader in studies of China’s tourism industry, sees a different rationale at play. “With the entry delay for tourists, China wants to avoid a broader mass of foreigners witnessing the current chaos, for example in the health care system.” For China, tourism is also always a political lever, Arlt says. Last Friday, Beijing announced that group tours of Chinese tourists would be allowed again to 20 countries starting on Feb. 6. What is striking, he adds, is that these mainly include countries that Beijing considers “friends of China,” such as Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Russia and Cuba.
“When South Korea installed a US missile defense system in 2017, Beijing’s tourism ministry promptly banned group tours to South Korea,” says Arlt, who just published the “China Outbound Tourism Handbook 2023” with tourism specialist Gary Bowerman. On the other hand, interest in group tours would decline more and more. “The days are gone when Chinese people stopped at tourist sights on buses and otherwise did not see much of the country.”
Overall, however, Chinese tourists remain far more important to Germany and Europe than vice versa, Arlt says. “The importance of German tourists is exceedingly low for the Chinese travel industry.” Nevertheless, there were and still are numerous travel agencies in Germany that specialize in trips to China and are now eagerly waiting for the country to open its doors to tourists once more. Not all of them have survived the three-year pandemic. One well-known case was the Hamburg-based tour operator China Tours, which filed for bankruptcy in February 2020 and has to start from scratch again with greatly reduced staff.
Especially subsidiaries of Chinese travel agencies were able to survive the pandemic by offering travel within China. Alex Seigel of Dragon Trip, an agency with offices in London, New York and Shanghai, told China.Table that his company focused on educational trips for international schools in China during the pandemic. Seigel also believes the country will open to tourists in early summer 2023, but it remains to be seen how the travel situation in China and tourist demand will have changed by then. Thanks to the domestic tourism of the past three years, the infrastructure of rural regions in particular is now better developed than it was before the pandemic. Seigel also expects that prices will have increased in many places by that time.
Yang of Sinorama shares a similar view: “Prices will probably be much higher than before the pandemic.” But the Ukraine war and a growing negative perception of China could also significantly curb the desire to travel to China. “The media here spreads mainly negative news. So the image of China is more negative than it was four years ago, especially among people who have never been to China.” Although China really does have a lot to offer as a travel destination, Yang says.
Johannes Fabrock has high hopes for the new year. “Thanks to the border opening, Hong Kong can now finally make use of one of its key locational advantages again,” the delegate of German business in Hong Kong rejoices. Many business representatives in Hong Kong are feeling the same way as Fabrock these days. After three years of strict pandemic control, the Chinese Special Administrative Region is finally on its way to returning to normality.
Hong Kong’s economy has suffered greatly during the pandemic. While China’s economy grew by three percent last year despite all the restrictions, estimates suggest that Hong Kong’s economy suffered a 3.2 percent slump. This is mainly due to the fact that Hong Kong’s business model as a “bridge to China” and efficient hub to many countries in Southeast Asia no longer functioned properly thanks to the government’s isolation policy. The tourists from mainland China, who are usually so eager to shop, were also absent.
But now the grand catch-up race is set to begin. Hong Kong opened its international borders last fall, even before China did. Finally, travelers from all over the world no longer had to undergo hotel quarantine. Since January 8, travel from Hong Kong to Mainland China is also finally possible again without isolation. Almost all border posts between Hong Kong and the Chinese metropolis of Shenzhen have been re-opened. The express train that takes travelers from central Hong Kong to Shenzhen in less than a quarter of an hour is also back in operation.
“The changes have been received with great relief in the local and international business community. Personal contact is indispensable for business success in China,” Fabrock reports. Accordingly, there is an enormous overdue demand among many companies to visit their China branches again and rekindle relations with colleagues, clients, suppliers and other business partners.
The border opening is a start. But here and there, not everything is running smoothly. For example, travelers currently still have to apply for a travel quota. 65,000 seats are available per day in both directions. Travel between Hong Kong and Shenzhen is also complicated by mandatory Covid testing in both directions within 48 hours before departure. Fabrock says there are also still some unanswered questions about visa issuance.
In October last year, Hong Kong announced a massive campaign to bring back international visitors to the city. This year, 500,000 airline tickets worth the equivalent of around €260 million are to be offered for free. Besides tourists, business travelers heading to Hong Kong are also expected to benefit from the campaign.
But as soon as the plans were announced, critics warned that it would take more than a few hospitality gifts for travelers. After “After four bitter years of political turmoil and Covid woes,” it would take “more than free air tickets to show that Hong Kong is back,” the South China Morning Post newspaper commented in an editorial. Not only the pandemic but also the government crackdown on the democracy movement has tarnished Hong Kong’s international reputation. The challenges are all the greater now “our regional rivals have swung their doors wide open,” the paper wrote.
Indeed, the competition has not been idle. Cities like Hong Kong’s all-time rival Singapore, as well as other players such as Bangkok or Seoul, have actively wooed companies and expats in recent years, for whom Hong Kong appeared less and less attractive. While Hong Kong’s economy suffered, Singapore’s economy grew again by around 3.5 percent last year, according to estimates. The boom is also evident on the real estate market, where historic record prices have recently been paid in Singapore. In Hong Kong, by contrast, prices dropped by an average of around 14 percent in 2022.
There is another big difference between Singapore and Hong Kong at the moment. Although Hong Kong has lifted most of its pandemic control measures, masks still have to be worn everywhere in the city. Joern Petring
Research was the love of his life. Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) said this in 2020 after stepping down as vice president of Taiwan. The epidemiologist had decided not to run again after four years in office and had returned to the Academia Sinica State Research Academy. But if he was needed, he would be ready at any time. That time now seems to have come. Taiwan’s presidential office confirmed media reports on Wednesday that the 71-year-old will take over as premier on Jan. 31.
After the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) election defeat in November, Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) announced his resignation and proposed a reshuffle of the cabinet. That is exactly what happened. It is expected that the names of the new ministers will be announced at a press conference on Friday morning. However, the appointment of Chen has already been leaked.
The fact that Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen is bringing her confidant Chen Chien-jen back from academia into politics for the last year of her second term in office comes as no surprise to most observers. Chen had been rumored as a possible candidate for premier for quite some time. But Chen up until recently had denied reports that he was on the shortlist for the job of head of government.
Within the DPP, Chen is considered a candidate of the center, who has managed so far not to antagonize any of the powerful party wings. He is repeatedly praised for his communication and negotiation skills. During his time as vice president, he invited opponents and supporters of same-sex marriage to the presidential palace for talks and repeatedly tried to build bridges. Chen is also fondly called big brother (大仁哥) by the president and his many supporters – alluding to a protagonist in a well-known Taiwanese soap opera who is considered warm and caring.
Chen is also Taiwan’s best-known epidemiologist and lectures at the renowned National Taiwan University. He received his Ph.D. in 1982 from the world-renowned American Johns Hopkins University. As Minister of Health, he played a decisive role in containing the first SARS epidemic in 2003. This time, too, the pandemic passed as smoothly in Taiwan as in almost no other country. In March 2022, he penned a guest article for the science magazine Nature, writing that in addition to science, trust, robust institutions, and social cohesion are needed to create a thriving society.
But Chen could not quite part with politics even after his return to science. In late 2021, he suddenly joined the Democratic Progressive Party – at the personal invitation of the president. During last year’s local elections, he also managed the campaign of the DPP candidate for mayor of Taipei Chen Shih-chung (陳時中). At times he was even considered a possible successor to President Tsai. With the election of Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) as the DPP’s new party chair, however, this prospect seems to have become a distant dream.
A devout Catholic, Chen traveled several times to the Vatican as the president’s special envoy, even after he retired from politics. Most recently to attend the funeral services for German Pope Benedict XVI. The Holy See is the only country in Europe that still maintains full diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan). In recognition of his scientific achievements, Pope Francis named Chen a full member of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences in 2021.
The fact that Chen is no career politician only adds to his popularity among the population. He is valued above all for his contribution to medical research and Taiwan’s health care system. In his role as premier, however, he will have to engage in even more political trench warfare than before. It could also prove difficult for him to maintain his image as a calm communicator during the infamous question-and-answer sessions in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan. David Demes
Everyone celebrates the first days of the new year. But no day is as loud and fiery as the fifth. That is when the god of prosperity is celebrated. He promises wealth – if he is praised the right way. And that means, as here in the Guiyuan Temple in Wuhan: firecrackers and fireworks.
