Diplomacy is in full swing lately. While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been catching up on his long-planned visit to China since Sunday, Berlin is preparing for the first German-Chinese government consultations under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz and Premier Li Qiang will meet as early as today, Monday. The plenary session with the ministers of both countries will follow on Tuesday. Li has only taken office since March; for him, too, these are the first government consultations with Germany.
While these major rounds of talks used to be clearly shaped by the desire for more cooperation, today things are more difficult. The EU and also Germany are struggling to find a balance between partnership and a distanced approach to China. In this situation, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party are more critical of the country than the Chancellor’s party, the Social Democratic Party. And China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang will not be attending, as Frank Sieren learned.
Officially, China’s foreign minister excuses himself with the almost simultaneous meeting with Blinken – with whom he spoke for more than five hours on Sunday, as Michael Radunski reports. Unofficially, however, Beijing considers Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock difficult since her visit.
German companies in China, on the other hand, clearly wish for a return to the old spirit of cooperation. Not naively, but nevertheless in search of common interests, as Joern Petring analyzes using a survey by the German Chamber of Commerce in China.
Ahead of the start of the government consultations with China, the German business community is calling for a detailed discussion of the potential for new cooperation at the meeting. “In developing the China strategy in recent years, much effort has been devoted to the question of how we can deal with China as a competitor and also as a system rival. From our point of view, the discussion about China as a cooperation partner came up short,” said Jens Hildebrandt, Executive Director of the German Chamber of Commerce (AHK) in Beijing, commenting on the upcoming consultations with China in Berlin.
On Monday morning, the program kicks off the Sino-German government consultations – for the seventh time since its inception in 2011. The actual talks will be held on Tuesday.
The goal is not to pander but to find common interests. “The question is how we can cooperate wisely with Chinese companies without being naive,” says Hildebrandt. The chances that Germany will get something out of it are looking good now. He called the fact that the very first foreign trip of the new Chinese prime minister to Germany a “clear signal.” “This shows how important Germany is for China.”
Last November, Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to China for his inaugural visit – as the first Western head of government after the Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, where President Xi Jinping consolidated his power. In his own words, Scholz expects a “very important working meeting.” It is the right time “and also, of course, a world situation in which it makes particular sense to exchange ideas,” he said a few days ago.
Given the tensions with the USA, Beijing is keen to keep relations with Europe “as stable and good as possible,” Hildebrandt also emphasized. Germany is seen as an important anchor. The German government should take advantage of this, the Chamber believes.
Li Qiang will travel to Berlin with nine members of the Chinese government. The itinerary for the visit is as follows:
After the conclusion of the government consultations on Tuesday, Scholz and Economy Minister Robert Habeck will once again meet with Li Qiang, the Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Zheng Shanjie and Trade Minister Wang Wentao at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action. Business representatives will also be in attendance.
During his Germany tour, Premier Li will also stop by Munich to meet with BMW CEO Oliver Zipse and the CSU Minister President of Bavaria, Markus Soeder.
Companies operating in China have several things on their wish list for cooperation with China. In a recent AHK survey, member companies listed the following areas in which cooperation should be specifically promoted:
Accordingly, the German government is also expected to address the following problems and issues the German business community faces in China:
It is unrealistic to expect the announcement of any significant agreements immediately after the meeting in Berlin. Still, Hildebrandt believes that the first government consultations since the end of the pandemic will send an important signal. “From our point of view, it is about reviving bilateral relations.” Initially, there will be a “cautious feeling out.” But that, too, is an important first step, he added.
Mikko Huotari, Director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin, also believes the talks with China are sensible. “It is in Germany’s interest not to let geopolitical tensions with China escalate,” says Huotari.
It is important for Germany to talk to a difficult actor like China regularly, he said. The balancing act of the German government is becoming more difficult. There is uncertainty about the China policy. At the same time, the tensions within the German government coalition are only partially resolved.
And there is also some trench warfare with Brussels regarding the economic security of the relationship with China, 5G networks or trade protection instruments in the automotive sector. But there are also issues where Germany must now step up its game, Huotari said. For example, Scholz’s visit to Beijing held out the prospect of closer cooperation in sustainability and health. “It is time for both sides to finally be more concrete here.”
And Jens Hildebrandt of the German Chamber of Commerce also believes that the Chinese should now be more concrete. A “charm offensive” has been observed for months. However, nothing has changed for the better for German companies in China.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang did not waste much time in Beijing on Sunday: a quick handshake, some small talk in the corridor of the Diaoyutai guesthouse, and then the serious talks started behind closed doors. The list of issues was long and difficult – from possible espionage activities by China in Cuba to economic and chip sanctions by the US to the Ukraine war and the tense situation around Taiwan. Sunday’s talks between Blinken and Qin lasted a whopping five and a half hours – an hour longer than planned. At just before 8.30 pm, they went on to a joint working dinner.
The good thing: Blinken and Qin are talking to each other. It is the first visit to China by a US Secretary of State in five years. This break was far too long for two states whose relations are considered the most important in the world. The concerning thing: Despite almost 40 degrees Celsius in Beijing, the atmosphere is chilly-expectations: correspondingly low.
The US Secretary of State will stay in Beijing for two days in total. On Monday, he will meet China’s foreign policy czar and State Councillor Wang Yi and possibly President Xi Jinping. Blinken held “frank, substantive and constructive” talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on Sunday, the US State Department subsequently announced. “The secretary stressed the importance of diplomacy and keeping channels of communication open across the range of issues to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation.” Blinken invited Qin to Washington to continue the talks. So they want to continue talking.
In addition to the difficult issues, both also addressed the potential for cooperation in fields of mutual interest. Over the weekend, Xi Jinping indicated where these common interests might lie. On Friday, China’s President welcomed Bill Gates, the founder of the software company Microsoft and head of a charity named after him. Xi called Gates “the first American friend” he had met in person this year.
On Sunday, China’s foreign minister said the aim was to build a “stable, predictable and constructive” relationship with the US. At the same time, however, Qin expressed clear concerns to Blinken about China’s core interests, including the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is the most important issue and, at the same time, the biggest risk in China-US relations, Qin said.
According to Chinese media, the two sides agreed on increasing the frequency of civilian flights between China and the US again, allowing more students and business people to travel between the countries.
Constructive tones could already be heard beforehand: “[I] Hope this meeting can help steer China-US relations back to what the two Presidents agreed upon in Bali,” tweeted Hua Chunying of China’s Foreign Ministry.
Nevertheless, concrete expectations for Blinken’s trip are low. It seems clear to all involved that major breakthroughs are not to be expected. The positions are currently too different.
Besides, Blinken is not well-liked in Beijing. The CCP leadership would have preferred a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen or Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, as Beijing sees its pressing interests in these areas. Accordingly, it is a matter of establishing open and permanent channels of communication.
It was also to lay the foundation for the big meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at November’s Apec summit in San Francisco. “I’m hoping that, over the next several months, I’ll be meeting with Xi again and talking about legitimate differences we have but also how there’s areas we can get along,” Biden said on Sunday.
Blinken could also address the military aspect in China, where there have been no high-level contacts for a long time. For example, Beijing’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu recently refused to meet his US counterpart Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the Asian Security Conference in Singapore. Security experts suspect that the Chinese are deliberately rejecting military dialogue: They claim that this is Beijing’s way of creating insecurity. The USA should not be certain how far China would go and what measures the People’s Republic has at its disposal.
But this “strategic uncertainty” is a dangerous undertaking. Especially in times of strained relations, such communication channels are crucial to prevent unwanted escalation.
There have been multiple potential triggers for this in recent weeks. An “unsafe interaction” occurred between a Chinese warship and a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait in early June. The collision was only 130 meters away. In May, a Chinese and an American fighter aircraft came dangerously close to each other over the South China Sea.
The Chinese side is aware of this danger. In a recent speech to the National Security Commission, Xi Jinping warned: “We must be prepared for worst-case and extreme scenarios, and be ready to withstand the major test of high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms(坚持底线思维和极限思维，准备经受风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验).”
Jin Canrong, the dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University, clarified what Xi means by extreme scenarios (极端情况) to the Global Times. Said extreme scenarios, to put it plainly, mean the risk of war.
Taiwan’s democracy is more fragile than it seems, warns Syaru Shirley Lin. This is also why she founded CAPRI, Taiwan’s first international think tank with an Asia-Pacific perspective. Its goal is to develop and promote innovative ideas for governance in the Asia Pacific, including Taiwan’s vibrant democracy.
Thanks to her education, Lin, who was born in Taiwan, is ideally prepared for this mission. Lin studied at Harvard University in the United States and taught at the Chinese University of Hong Kong – and also looks back on successful years on Wall Street. She received considerable attention in 2016 with her book “Taiwan’s China Dilemma.” In it, she describes the dangers of Taiwan’s economic dependence on China. Today, seven years later, she says, “The discussion could not be more appropriate.”
Because China, which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, is increasing pressure on the island through military maneuvers and cyberwarfare. Taiwan’s China dilemma allows Beijing to exert indirect influence on Taiwan, Lin explains. And she warns that Taiwan’s young democracy is not that resilient to such outside threats. This is evident, for example, in the increasing polarization in Taiwan. A small but vocal minority of Taiwanese call for closer relations with China – even at the expense of democracy, Lin fears.
To become more resilient, governments must provide answers. That means tackling high rents, inequality, and youth unemployment in Taiwan and across the Asia Pacific. Because when governance doesn’t deliver “people want fast and simple answers,” Lin explains. At CAPRI, Lin wants to connect Asia-Pacific countries to learn from each other. What keeps her optimistic is the innovative power of democracies. They can solve problems and anticipate problems of the future, she explains. “Because in democracies, you have the freedom to think and to create.”
A freedom that did not yet exist during Lin’s childhood in Taiwan: Taiwan was still a military dictatorship when she went to school: “For me democratization was something throughout my childhood we longed for,” she recalls. In the meantime, the ideas of freedom rights and democracy have shaped the identity of Taiwanese people – and Lin is proud of this achievement.
She observes that more and more people on the island identify themselves as Taiwanese and less as Chinese. This also means that there is less support for closer economic ties with China. China and Taiwan are still very close culturally, she says, for example when it comes to family or traditions. But when it gets political, Taiwan is different, Lin explains. “Taiwan is very progressive, especially the younger generation believes in democratic governance.”
It is precisely these contradictions that fascinate Lin and motivated her to join academia after nine years at Goldman Sachs. What drives her now is the question: “How can people with completely different ideas about policy and innovation can get along?” As a lecturer and banker in Hong Kong, she experienced how China has violently imposed its system on other people. Like the people in Taiwan, Hong Kongers have separated themselves from a Chinese identity. “But China couldn’t tolerate that” she warns. Jonathan Lehrer
Diplomacy is in full swing lately. While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been catching up on his long-planned visit to China since Sunday, Berlin is preparing for the first German-Chinese government consultations under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Scholz and Premier Li Qiang will meet as early as today, Monday. The plenary session with the ministers of both countries will follow on Tuesday. Li has only taken office since March; for him, too, these are the first government consultations with Germany.
While these major rounds of talks used to be clearly shaped by the desire for more cooperation, today things are more difficult. The EU and also Germany are struggling to find a balance between partnership and a distanced approach to China. In this situation, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party are more critical of the country than the Chancellor’s party, the Social Democratic Party. And China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang will not be attending, as Frank Sieren learned.
Officially, China’s foreign minister excuses himself with the almost simultaneous meeting with Blinken – with whom he spoke for more than five hours on Sunday, as Michael Radunski reports. Unofficially, however, Beijing considers Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock difficult since her visit.
German companies in China, on the other hand, clearly wish for a return to the old spirit of cooperation. Not naively, but nevertheless in search of common interests, as Joern Petring analyzes using a survey by the German Chamber of Commerce in China.
Ahead of the start of the government consultations with China, the German business community is calling for a detailed discussion of the potential for new cooperation at the meeting. “In developing the China strategy in recent years, much effort has been devoted to the question of how we can deal with China as a competitor and also as a system rival. From our point of view, the discussion about China as a cooperation partner came up short,” said Jens Hildebrandt, Executive Director of the German Chamber of Commerce (AHK) in Beijing, commenting on the upcoming consultations with China in Berlin.
On Monday morning, the program kicks off the Sino-German government consultations – for the seventh time since its inception in 2011. The actual talks will be held on Tuesday.
The goal is not to pander but to find common interests. “The question is how we can cooperate wisely with Chinese companies without being naive,” says Hildebrandt. The chances that Germany will get something out of it are looking good now. He called the fact that the very first foreign trip of the new Chinese prime minister to Germany a “clear signal.” “This shows how important Germany is for China.”
Last November, Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to China for his inaugural visit – as the first Western head of government after the Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, where President Xi Jinping consolidated his power. In his own words, Scholz expects a “very important working meeting.” It is the right time “and also, of course, a world situation in which it makes particular sense to exchange ideas,” he said a few days ago.
Given the tensions with the USA, Beijing is keen to keep relations with Europe “as stable and good as possible,” Hildebrandt also emphasized. Germany is seen as an important anchor. The German government should take advantage of this, the Chamber believes.
Li Qiang will travel to Berlin with nine members of the Chinese government. The itinerary for the visit is as follows:
After the conclusion of the government consultations on Tuesday, Scholz and Economy Minister Robert Habeck will once again meet with Li Qiang, the Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Zheng Shanjie and Trade Minister Wang Wentao at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action. Business representatives will also be in attendance.
During his Germany tour, Premier Li will also stop by Munich to meet with BMW CEO Oliver Zipse and the CSU Minister President of Bavaria, Markus Soeder.
Companies operating in China have several things on their wish list for cooperation with China. In a recent AHK survey, member companies listed the following areas in which cooperation should be specifically promoted:
Accordingly, the German government is also expected to address the following problems and issues the German business community faces in China:
It is unrealistic to expect the announcement of any significant agreements immediately after the meeting in Berlin. Still, Hildebrandt believes that the first government consultations since the end of the pandemic will send an important signal. “From our point of view, it is about reviving bilateral relations.” Initially, there will be a “cautious feeling out.” But that, too, is an important first step, he added.
Mikko Huotari, Director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin, also believes the talks with China are sensible. “It is in Germany’s interest not to let geopolitical tensions with China escalate,” says Huotari.
It is important for Germany to talk to a difficult actor like China regularly, he said. The balancing act of the German government is becoming more difficult. There is uncertainty about the China policy. At the same time, the tensions within the German government coalition are only partially resolved.
And there is also some trench warfare with Brussels regarding the economic security of the relationship with China, 5G networks or trade protection instruments in the automotive sector. But there are also issues where Germany must now step up its game, Huotari said. For example, Scholz’s visit to Beijing held out the prospect of closer cooperation in sustainability and health. “It is time for both sides to finally be more concrete here.”
And Jens Hildebrandt of the German Chamber of Commerce also believes that the Chinese should now be more concrete. A “charm offensive” has been observed for months. However, nothing has changed for the better for German companies in China.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang did not waste much time in Beijing on Sunday: a quick handshake, some small talk in the corridor of the Diaoyutai guesthouse, and then the serious talks started behind closed doors. The list of issues was long and difficult – from possible espionage activities by China in Cuba to economic and chip sanctions by the US to the Ukraine war and the tense situation around Taiwan. Sunday’s talks between Blinken and Qin lasted a whopping five and a half hours – an hour longer than planned. At just before 8.30 pm, they went on to a joint working dinner.
The good thing: Blinken and Qin are talking to each other. It is the first visit to China by a US Secretary of State in five years. This break was far too long for two states whose relations are considered the most important in the world. The concerning thing: Despite almost 40 degrees Celsius in Beijing, the atmosphere is chilly-expectations: correspondingly low.
The US Secretary of State will stay in Beijing for two days in total. On Monday, he will meet China’s foreign policy czar and State Councillor Wang Yi and possibly President Xi Jinping. Blinken held “frank, substantive and constructive” talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on Sunday, the US State Department subsequently announced. “The secretary stressed the importance of diplomacy and keeping channels of communication open across the range of issues to reduce the risk of misperception and miscalculation.” Blinken invited Qin to Washington to continue the talks. So they want to continue talking.
In addition to the difficult issues, both also addressed the potential for cooperation in fields of mutual interest. Over the weekend, Xi Jinping indicated where these common interests might lie. On Friday, China’s President welcomed Bill Gates, the founder of the software company Microsoft and head of a charity named after him. Xi called Gates “the first American friend” he had met in person this year.
On Sunday, China’s foreign minister said the aim was to build a “stable, predictable and constructive” relationship with the US. At the same time, however, Qin expressed clear concerns to Blinken about China’s core interests, including the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is the most important issue and, at the same time, the biggest risk in China-US relations, Qin said.
According to Chinese media, the two sides agreed on increasing the frequency of civilian flights between China and the US again, allowing more students and business people to travel between the countries.
Constructive tones could already be heard beforehand: “[I] Hope this meeting can help steer China-US relations back to what the two Presidents agreed upon in Bali,” tweeted Hua Chunying of China’s Foreign Ministry.
Nevertheless, concrete expectations for Blinken’s trip are low. It seems clear to all involved that major breakthroughs are not to be expected. The positions are currently too different.
Besides, Blinken is not well-liked in Beijing. The CCP leadership would have preferred a meeting with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen or Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, as Beijing sees its pressing interests in these areas. Accordingly, it is a matter of establishing open and permanent channels of communication.
It was also to lay the foundation for the big meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping at November’s Apec summit in San Francisco. “I’m hoping that, over the next several months, I’ll be meeting with Xi again and talking about legitimate differences we have but also how there’s areas we can get along,” Biden said on Sunday.
Blinken could also address the military aspect in China, where there have been no high-level contacts for a long time. For example, Beijing’s Defence Minister Li Shangfu recently refused to meet his US counterpart Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the Asian Security Conference in Singapore. Security experts suspect that the Chinese are deliberately rejecting military dialogue: They claim that this is Beijing’s way of creating insecurity. The USA should not be certain how far China would go and what measures the People’s Republic has at its disposal.
But this “strategic uncertainty” is a dangerous undertaking. Especially in times of strained relations, such communication channels are crucial to prevent unwanted escalation.
There have been multiple potential triggers for this in recent weeks. An “unsafe interaction” occurred between a Chinese warship and a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait in early June. The collision was only 130 meters away. In May, a Chinese and an American fighter aircraft came dangerously close to each other over the South China Sea.
The Chinese side is aware of this danger. In a recent speech to the National Security Commission, Xi Jinping warned: “We must be prepared for worst-case and extreme scenarios, and be ready to withstand the major test of high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms(坚持底线思维和极限思维，准备经受风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验).”
Jin Canrong, the dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University, clarified what Xi means by extreme scenarios (极端情况) to the Global Times. Said extreme scenarios, to put it plainly, mean the risk of war.
Taiwan’s democracy is more fragile than it seems, warns Syaru Shirley Lin. This is also why she founded CAPRI, Taiwan’s first international think tank with an Asia-Pacific perspective. Its goal is to develop and promote innovative ideas for governance in the Asia Pacific, including Taiwan’s vibrant democracy.
Thanks to her education, Lin, who was born in Taiwan, is ideally prepared for this mission. Lin studied at Harvard University in the United States and taught at the Chinese University of Hong Kong – and also looks back on successful years on Wall Street. She received considerable attention in 2016 with her book “Taiwan’s China Dilemma.” In it, she describes the dangers of Taiwan’s economic dependence on China. Today, seven years later, she says, “The discussion could not be more appropriate.”
Because China, which sees Taiwan as a breakaway province, is increasing pressure on the island through military maneuvers and cyberwarfare. Taiwan’s China dilemma allows Beijing to exert indirect influence on Taiwan, Lin explains. And she warns that Taiwan’s young democracy is not that resilient to such outside threats. This is evident, for example, in the increasing polarization in Taiwan. A small but vocal minority of Taiwanese call for closer relations with China – even at the expense of democracy, Lin fears.
To become more resilient, governments must provide answers. That means tackling high rents, inequality, and youth unemployment in Taiwan and across the Asia Pacific. Because when governance doesn’t deliver “people want fast and simple answers,” Lin explains. At CAPRI, Lin wants to connect Asia-Pacific countries to learn from each other. What keeps her optimistic is the innovative power of democracies. They can solve problems and anticipate problems of the future, she explains. “Because in democracies, you have the freedom to think and to create.”
A freedom that did not yet exist during Lin’s childhood in Taiwan: Taiwan was still a military dictatorship when she went to school: “For me democratization was something throughout my childhood we longed for,” she recalls. In the meantime, the ideas of freedom rights and democracy have shaped the identity of Taiwanese people – and Lin is proud of this achievement.
She observes that more and more people on the island identify themselves as Taiwanese and less as Chinese. This also means that there is less support for closer economic ties with China. China and Taiwan are still very close culturally, she says, for example when it comes to family or traditions. But when it gets political, Taiwan is different, Lin explains. “Taiwan is very progressive, especially the younger generation believes in democratic governance.”
It is precisely these contradictions that fascinate Lin and motivated her to join academia after nine years at Goldman Sachs. What drives her now is the question: “How can people with completely different ideas about policy and innovation can get along?” As a lecturer and banker in Hong Kong, she experienced how China has violently imposed its system on other people. Like the people in Taiwan, Hong Kongers have separated themselves from a Chinese identity. “But China couldn’t tolerate that” she warns. Jonathan Lehrer
