In 2014, exactly ten years ago, young Taiwanese stormed the parliament building in Taipei in protest against a services trade agreement with China. They stayed in the plenary chamber for three weeks until the ruling Kuomintang party called off the proposed legislation. Many people took to the streets in support of the protest, dubbed the “Sunflower Movement.” Just a few weeks later, young people in Hong Kong occupied streets and squares for weeks to protest against Beijing’s decision to once again only allow hand-picked candidates to run in the election for the next chief executive.
Ten years later, the political realities of Taiwan and Hong Kong are far apart. In Hong Kong, China cracked down on the continuing protests and enacted a drastic security law in 2020, leading to the imprisonment of quite a few leading activists of the democracy movement. Hong Kong has now passed its own version, which is even stricter than the Chinese law, as Marcel Grzanna explains. Concerns about civil rights and free enterprise are growing, and foreign countries are responding with protests and calls for sanctions.
In Taiwan, on the other hand, the former activists are celebrating the Sunflower Movement’s tenth anniversary. Although Taiwan is under constant pressure from Beijing, democracy remains stable, as was recently demonstrated in the presidential election: The failed KMT candidate immediately accepted his defeat. This was also something the young people fought for. And the Sunflower Movement prevented the integration with the People’s Republic that many observers expected at the time, writes David Demes. The Taiwanese people’s will to “determine their own destiny” has shown itself, he quotes one of the protest leaders at the time.
Your Christiane Kühl
Feature
Hong Kong’s stricter security laws ruin its economic reputation
Hong Kong in October 2014: Thousands of protesters occupy the government district.
Hong Kong has decided to tighten its security laws. Just two weeks after its first draft, the city’s parliament, which had been completely cleansed of opposition forces, unanimously passed Article 23, paving the way for new criminal offenses and harsher punishments.
The law comes into force next weekend and allows the authorities to nip political dissent in the bud under the guise of national security. The international community reacted on Tuesday with protests and calls for sanctions.
“The law sends a cold shiver down the spine of anyone with a sense of the rule of law. It escalates the oppressive obtrusiveness of Beijing’s Hong Kong lackeys to an intolerable level,” said Reinhard Butikofer, MEP and member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China. “The proper consequence for the EU would be to finally sanction Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee, as the US has long done and the European Parliament has long called for,” Butikofer said.
‘Direct attack’ on the rights of Hong Kong citizens
Ray Wong, founder of the German association Freedom for Hong Kong, also hopes for a strong reaction from the European Union in the form of sanctions. “The international community must hold those responsible for this law to account,” says Wong. The extended prison sentences legitimized by Article 23 and the stricter access to legal representation represent “a direct attack” on the rights of Hong Kong citizens, which were enshrined in the city’s Basic Law when it was handed back to the People’s Republic of China in 1997.
In a joint statement, 75 MPs, former ambassadors, lawyers and activists from the EU, North America, Malaysia and Singapore protested against the new legislation. “New legislation under Article 23 will bring a further devastating blow to the city’s autonomy, rule of law, rights and fundamental freedoms, beyond the impact of the National Security Law imposed by Beijing in 2020.”
Foreign companies must be careful
For many Hong Kong activists in exile abroad, Article 23 equals the end of all political self-determination for Hong Kong citizens. The Australian lawyer Kevin Yam, on whom the authorities have placed a bounty for his arrest, expressed his deep shock. For years, Yam campaigned for the rule of law and democracy in Hong Kong. “We now need some time to let it sink in. Then we can think about the future and what to do next,” Yam told Table.Briefings.
Aside from the danger to human rights, there are fears of a further deteriorating business climate. EU diplomats had already voiced such concerns a few weeks ago – partly because the legislation will take “modern forms of espionage” into account. Foreign companies and organizations will have to be more careful because the law, as presented in late January, does not specify where the legal definition of espionage begins.
The law purports to have extraterritorial reach
Article 23 effectively means the implementation of Hong Kong’s own security law. Until now, only the version enacted by the central government in Beijing in 2020 was in force. However, this was enough to severely tarnish the city’s reputation as China’s liberal loophole for trade and financial transactions.
While the Federation of German Industries (BDI) does not wish to comment publicly, it has been a critical observer of civil rights developments in the People’s Republic of China for years. According to reports, the BDI is skeptical of any change in the political trend in the near future. Instead, it expects to see stricter state control, which will also complicate the business activities of foreign companies.
The National Security Act previously included four offenses. Now it has seven:
treason
secession
subversion
theft of state secrets and espionage
external interference
collusion with foreign forces
sabotage endangering national security
Up to 14 years in prison for failing to report offenses
For instance, it contains a paragraph stating that a person can be punished with up to 14 years if they fail to report another person intending to participate in an unauthorized protest.
The wider, even extraterritorial scope the law claims is primarily aimed at Hong Kong opposition overseas. However, foreign citizens can also expect to be prosecuted in the future if they publicly campaign for a return to greater civil liberties.
Proteste
10 years of the sunflower movement: ‘We determine our own destiny’
One of the leaders of the Sunflower Movement at the time, Lin Fei-fan, speaks in Taipei on the tenth anniversary.
It has been ten years since Taiwan’s civil society spectacularly stopped the comprehensive Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) with the People’s Republic of China at the last minute. At the time, the ruling Kuomintang Party (KMT) finalized the controversial agreement after reviewing it in just 30 seconds the day before. On the night of March 18, 2014, several hundred protesters successfully occupied the plenary chamber of the Legislative Yuan, as Taiwan’s parliament is officially known.
Around 400 protesters held out in the Legislative Yuan hall for 24 days. The occupation sparked nationwide solidarity and brought hundreds of thousands onto the streets of the capital Taipei.
After around three weeks of protest, parliamentary speaker Wang Jin-pyng (KMT) finally backed down on April 6. He promised to postpone a review of the CSSTA until a law to control all agreements with mainland China – as the demonstrators had demanded – was passed. This allowed the protesters to leave the parliament peacefully. Wang was an internal party rival of then President Ma Ying-jeou, who had supported the agreement until the end. With his promise, Wang presented Ma with a fait accompli. The CSSTA has been shelved ever since and has never been ratified.
Protesters of the Sunflower Movement on March 25, 2014, during the more than three-week occupation of the parliament in Taipei.
2014: Taiwan’s era of rapprochement with China
The successful protest was in contrast to the mood at the time. Unlike today, Taiwan was on a course of rapprochement with Beijing. Against the backdrop of China’s economic rise and growing international significance – especially after the 2008 financial crisis – Taiwan’s future seemed to lie in further economic and political rapprochement with mainland China.
After eight years of tense relations with the mainland, President Ma rolled out the red carpet for China. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ruled Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, as it does today. Just one year after Ma Ying-jeou took office, the first scheduled flights between Taiwan and China were introduced in 2009 and Chinese students enrolled at Taiwan’s universities for the first time in 2011. Chinese tourists soon dominated the streets on the island, displacing the Japanese as the largest group of foreign travelers.
Say goodbye to Taiwan: The future seemed clear
During Ma’s time in power, there were plans for even more far-reaching initiatives, including a goods trade agreement and small free trade zones, recalls sociology professor Ho Ming-sho from National Taiwan University. “These efforts were perceived as an attempt to integrate Taiwan into a Chinese-dominated economic system through the back door,” Ho tells Table.Briefings. This had raised fears that Taiwan could lose its economic and political autonomy in the long term.
The US political scientist John Mearsheimer published an editorial entitled “Say Goodbye to Taiwan” in the National Interest just one month before the start of the Sunflower Movement. Sociologist Ho finds the article to be an apt summary of the prevailing atmosphere at the time: “Many international observers at the time thought it inevitable that Taiwan would gradually be integrated into China.”
Young people were worried about the future
Taiwan was also tempted to pin its hopes for a better future on the booming People’s Republic due to stagnating wages, recalls former student leader Lin Fei-fan in an interview with Table.Briefings. “Back then, the atmosphere among young people was characterized by worries about the future,” says the now 35-year-old. “The Sunflower Movement countered this narrative and showed the will of the Taiwanese people to determine our own destiny.” This will, coupled with the perceived undemocratic legislative process, ultimately gave rise to the Sunflower Movement in March.
The movement’s name was more of a coincidence: A floristry company had donated sunflowers to the parliamentary occupants. And the name was reminiscent of the Wild Lilies Movement of 1990, when students demanded the end of the KMT’s one-party rule. The protest led to the first direct and free presidential election in 1996. In 2014, the protesters wanted to defend the young democracy. “It made us angry to see how the democratic process was being trampled on,” recalls Lin.
The agreement has been shelved for ten years
The Sunflower Movement was a decisive turning point, says sociologist Ho Ming-sho. “The Taiwanese people have shown that they are unwilling to sacrifice political sovereignty and the hard-won democratic system for economic advantages.”
The Sunflower Movement also continues to have a political impact today. Two years after the protest, the KMT suffered a defeat in the 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections. The DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen, who had expressed solidarity with the protesters early on, won.
Some Sunflower activists also went into politics and were elected to parliament in 2016. “I see the fact that people who had occupied the plenary chamber two years earlier were elected to parliament two years later as a great achievement of Taiwanese democracy,” says sociologist Ho.
Taiwan’s development defied predictions
In the ten years since the Sunflower Movement, Taiwanese business people and investors have increasingly withdrawn from the People’s Republic. Overall, Taiwanese investment in China has fallen by almost 70 percent. Despite warnings to the contrary, Taiwan’s gross domestic product per capita increased by 41 percent in the same period; exports rose by 35 percent.
Student leader Lin Fei-fan sees this as vindication for himself and the movement. “If we hadn’t stopped the CSSTA, we would be facing much greater challenges now, especially during the Covid pandemic and the trade war between the US and China in 2017 and 2018,” says Lin. For example, the domestic semiconductor industry could have become collateral damage of American punitive tariffs and import restrictions.
Lin is skeptical about any future economic agreements with China. The former activist says Beijing is demanding even greater political concessions today and has thus created very high hurdles for economic agreements. “The question today is not whether Taiwan is ready for an agreement, but whether Beijing is ready for it.”
Gesellschaft
Sinolytics Radar
China’s NEV market: transitioning from rapid growth to a new era of stability
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In 2023, the previously extremely high growth rate of China’s NEV industry dropped again. The NEV passenger car retail growth rate experienced a significant decline, dropping from a 165% in 2021 to just 36% in 2023. This may signal an upcoming shift in the industry’s trajectory, gradually moving toward more stabilization. However, a growth rate of 36% is still remarkable, especially considering the already high initial base.
China’s NEV market is characterized by its fierce competition. BYD leads by a significant margin, followed by a small number of serious competitors. Meanwhile, the remaining smaller players are either growing slowly or even declining.
This transition signals that the Chinese NEV market is moving from a rapidly expanding market to a highly concentrated market, where only a small number of companies may still be able to reshape the competitive landscape behind the dominant BYD.
In the future, as market growth slows and competition intensifies, more companies will begin to consolidate their positions, innovation will become more focused, and market strategies may tilt toward refining products and processes rather than expanding broadly.
Sinolytics is a European consulting and analysis company specializing in China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
Wachstum
News
Nvidia expands cooperation with BYD
US chip manufacturer Nvidia is expanding its partnership with the Chinese electric car market leader BYD. The cooperation will include automotive production, in-car computing and AI training in the future, Nvidia announced. To this end, BYD will utilize the latest generation of Nvidia’s Drive Thor chip platform, which is also suitable for autonomous driving. BYD will also use Nvidia’s AI infrastructure to train AI models for autonomous driving.
The partnership will extend beyond cars to “entire workflows,” Nikkei Asia quoted Nvidia’s Automotive Vice President Danny Shapiro. BYD will use the Drive Thor platform to develop “intelligent robots” for factory planning and use in production. With the help of Nvidia’s real-time 3D graphics platform Omniverse, BYD could also improve the shopping experience of car buyers.
With this move, Nvidia shows that US companies can do good business in China despite some of Washington’s export restrictions. Nvidia cannot sell some of its most powerful chips to China. According to Nikkei Asia, the Drive Thor platform is already being used by Geely’s electric brand Zeekr and Li Auto, among others. The first cars using Drive Thor will be launched in 2025. Nvidia announced that, in addition to BYD, other Chinese car manufacturers will use Drive Thor as the “AI brain” for their next generation of electric cars. These include Xpeng and the premium brand Hyper from the company Gac Aion. ck
Nvidia
Government wants to establish local supply chains for electric cars
The Chinese government wants to establish a local supply chain for electric vehicles with the help of political support. This was reported by Nikkei Asia, citing statements made at the annual China EV100 Forum in Beijing. Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, which oversees economic policy, said at the event that China was planning to upgrade the supply chains for semiconductors and other automotive components. Gou Ping, Vice President of SASAC, the commission responsible for the central government’s state-owned enterprises, announced plans to increase development capacity at the three car manufacturers directly under Beijing’s control: VW partner China FAW Group in Changchun, Dongfeng Motor in Wuhan and Chongqing Changan Automobile.
Beijing is likely to order the three carmakers to put more money into development – even if their profits suffer as a result, Nikkei writes. Former research minister Wan Gang, who now chairs the EV100 platform, called for innovation efforts to be stepped up in the semiconductor industry and other sectors crucial to electric cars and autonomous driving. Wan called China’s EV industry now one of the “new productive forces” with high quality. The “new productive forces” is the latest key term used by state and party leader Xi Jinping for the focused development of certain technology sectors.
So far, many successful EV manufacturers have been private companies, above all, market leader BYD. Many components are sourced from foreign suppliers. Beijing now wants to localize the supply chains and strengthen the state-owned companies in this segment. Of the three central state-owned car manufacturers, only Changan Auto can boast relatively good sales. Founded in 2014, the EV100 platform sees itself as an independent think tank for promoting new mobility, despite being close to the state from the outset. Its current chairman Wan Gang, who earned his PhD at Clausthal University of Technology and later worked for Audi, was Minister of Research between 2007 and 2018. During this time, he campaigned strongly in favor of electromobility. ck
Autoindustrie
Evergrande fined for securities fraud
Hengda Real Estate, a central unit of the China Evergrande Group, is suspected of inflating its revenues by almost 75 billion euros over two years. As reported by Nikkei Asia and others, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has leveled this accusation against the highly indebted company. The property developer reportedly then issued bonds based on this false information.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission reportedly fined the Evergrande core company 4.2 billion yuan (560 million euros) for inflating its revenue by a total of 564.1 billion yuan (72 billion euros) in 2019 and 2020, Hengda said in a stock exchange announcement late on Monday. The inflated revenue is said to make up over 60 percent of the officially reported profit in 2019 and over 86 percent in 2020. The company is also accused of failing to provide timely information about its annual and half-year figures, legal disputes and debts.
In parallel, the Chinese supervisory authority has banned Evergrande founder Xu Jiayin, also known as Hui Ka-yan, from the securities market for life – as well as former Evergrande CEO Xia Haijun. Xu was ordered to pay a fine of 47 million yuan (six million euros), Xia 15 million yuan (two million euros). Two months ago, a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of Evergrande. The group has outstanding liabilities of over 280 billion US dollars. cyb
Immobilienkrise
Putin to visit China in May
Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China in May for talks with Xi Jinping, according to the Reuters news agency, citing unnamed insiders. However, Moscow or the foreign ministries in Beijing and Moscow did not officially confirm this on Tuesday. The Russian presidential office said preparations for several trips and various talks are underway.
However, in February, China’s ambassador in Moscow, Zhang Hanhui, had already hinted that Putin would be traveling to Beijing. Both sides were preparing for “several meetings” between Putin and Xi, Zhang told the Russian news agency Sputnik at the time. “Putin’s visit to China [this year] will definitely be a success,” Zhang said. “China looks forward to his arrival,” he added. It would be Putin’s 19th trip to China as president.
State Council wants to attract foreign investors with 24-point plan
China’s State Council has published a 24-point action plan to further open up the Chinese market to foreign companies. It calls on local authorities and government agencies to draw up roadmaps for allowing foreign investment in more sectors. Among other things, the plan allows Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other free trade zones to choose several foreign companies to invest in specialized areas such as genetic diagnosis and treatment technologies, Bloomberg reports.
It also calls on the authorities to support qualified foreign financial institutions in participating in domestic bond underwriting and to encourage foreign investment in private equity funds. Investors in China’s bond and other financial markets are to receive preferential tax policies. The plan calls for facilitating data flows – apparently in light of the strict regulations for transferring data abroad, which foreign companies and their chambers of commerce have long criticized.
The State Council also plans to extend the validity period of visas for managers and technical staff of foreign companies and their families to two years and allow more international flights from hubs such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. The plan is a reaction to the historically low level of foreign direct investment in 2023, but according to Bloomberg, companies have become somewhat weary of liberalization promises. It would therefore be important to implement the plan quickly. ck
Visa
Beijing plans to diversify iron ore imports and is looking to Africa to do so
China wants to diversify its iron ore imports. Beijing currently sources 80 percent of this ore from Brazil and Australia. As an alternative, China is looking to Africa and has drawn up an iron ore “foundation plan”: At the top of the list of future suppliers are countries such as Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, Cameroon and the Republic of Congo.
Investments are already underway. In northern Sierra Leone, a Chinese company is currently building an iron ore processing plant at the Tonkolili mine, which holds ore reserves of 13.7 billion tons. In Guinea, China has been investing in the Simandou mine, home to the world’s largest untapped high-grade iron ore deposits. Similar projects are underway in the border region of Cameroon and the Republic of Congo. “The massive investment overseas is a part of China’s long-pursued goal of enhancing its position in the global iron ore trade,” said Liz Gao from the commodities consultancy CRU Group.
African countries also plan to diversify their economic relations and cooperate with China. Several African presidents have already traveled to Beijing for bilateral meetings with the Chinese government.
Last week, for example, President Xi Jinping received Angolan President João Lourenço. Angola wants to reduce its dependence on oil exports and instead engage in more economic cooperation in mining, agriculture and manufacturing – which suits China’s interests. Two weeks ago, Julius Maada Bio, President of Sierra Leone, visited the country. Xi promised him further investment and support for the industrialization and development of the agricultural sector. The Chinese energy company China Kigho Energy Group is planning a steel mill in Sierra Leone for processing iron ore. as
Geopolitik
Executive Moves
Lin Jian is the new Deputy Director General of the Foreign Ministry’s press department and one of the four Foreign Ministry spokespersons. He previously worked in Xinjiang as the Communist Party chief in the foreign office of the state paramilitary organization Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC).
Wen Jie has been Project Leader Test Object Management Europe at Chinese car manufacturer Zeekr since March. Wen has many years of experience in the Chinese automotive industry. His former employers included Geely and Beijing Hyundai. He is based in Gothenburg.
Is something changing in your organization? Let us know at heads@table.media!
Dessert
Shopping for air taxis on the internet – can things get any more futuristic? It is a reality on the online platform Taobao. Chinese drone manufacturer EHang has recently started selling its autonomous electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle EH216-S here. Clicking on “Add to cart” costs a whopping 2.39 million yuan (around 310,000 euros).
In 2014, exactly ten years ago, young Taiwanese stormed the parliament building in Taipei in protest against a services trade agreement with China. They stayed in the plenary chamber for three weeks until the ruling Kuomintang party called off the proposed legislation. Many people took to the streets in support of the protest, dubbed the “Sunflower Movement.” Just a few weeks later, young people in Hong Kong occupied streets and squares for weeks to protest against Beijing’s decision to once again only allow hand-picked candidates to run in the election for the next chief executive.
Ten years later, the political realities of Taiwan and Hong Kong are far apart. In Hong Kong, China cracked down on the continuing protests and enacted a drastic security law in 2020, leading to the imprisonment of quite a few leading activists of the democracy movement. Hong Kong has now passed its own version, which is even stricter than the Chinese law, as Marcel Grzanna explains. Concerns about civil rights and free enterprise are growing, and foreign countries are responding with protests and calls for sanctions.
In Taiwan, on the other hand, the former activists are celebrating the Sunflower Movement’s tenth anniversary. Although Taiwan is under constant pressure from Beijing, democracy remains stable, as was recently demonstrated in the presidential election: The failed KMT candidate immediately accepted his defeat. This was also something the young people fought for. And the Sunflower Movement prevented the integration with the People’s Republic that many observers expected at the time, writes David Demes. The Taiwanese people’s will to “determine their own destiny” has shown itself, he quotes one of the protest leaders at the time.
Your Christiane Kühl
Feature
Hong Kong’s stricter security laws ruin its economic reputation
Hong Kong in October 2014: Thousands of protesters occupy the government district.
Hong Kong has decided to tighten its security laws. Just two weeks after its first draft, the city’s parliament, which had been completely cleansed of opposition forces, unanimously passed Article 23, paving the way for new criminal offenses and harsher punishments.
The law comes into force next weekend and allows the authorities to nip political dissent in the bud under the guise of national security. The international community reacted on Tuesday with protests and calls for sanctions.
“The law sends a cold shiver down the spine of anyone with a sense of the rule of law. It escalates the oppressive obtrusiveness of Beijing’s Hong Kong lackeys to an intolerable level,” said Reinhard Butikofer, MEP and member of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China. “The proper consequence for the EU would be to finally sanction Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee, as the US has long done and the European Parliament has long called for,” Butikofer said.
‘Direct attack’ on the rights of Hong Kong citizens
Ray Wong, founder of the German association Freedom for Hong Kong, also hopes for a strong reaction from the European Union in the form of sanctions. “The international community must hold those responsible for this law to account,” says Wong. The extended prison sentences legitimized by Article 23 and the stricter access to legal representation represent “a direct attack” on the rights of Hong Kong citizens, which were enshrined in the city’s Basic Law when it was handed back to the People’s Republic of China in 1997.
In a joint statement, 75 MPs, former ambassadors, lawyers and activists from the EU, North America, Malaysia and Singapore protested against the new legislation. “New legislation under Article 23 will bring a further devastating blow to the city’s autonomy, rule of law, rights and fundamental freedoms, beyond the impact of the National Security Law imposed by Beijing in 2020.”
Foreign companies must be careful
For many Hong Kong activists in exile abroad, Article 23 equals the end of all political self-determination for Hong Kong citizens. The Australian lawyer Kevin Yam, on whom the authorities have placed a bounty for his arrest, expressed his deep shock. For years, Yam campaigned for the rule of law and democracy in Hong Kong. “We now need some time to let it sink in. Then we can think about the future and what to do next,” Yam told Table.Briefings.
Aside from the danger to human rights, there are fears of a further deteriorating business climate. EU diplomats had already voiced such concerns a few weeks ago – partly because the legislation will take “modern forms of espionage” into account. Foreign companies and organizations will have to be more careful because the law, as presented in late January, does not specify where the legal definition of espionage begins.
The law purports to have extraterritorial reach
Article 23 effectively means the implementation of Hong Kong’s own security law. Until now, only the version enacted by the central government in Beijing in 2020 was in force. However, this was enough to severely tarnish the city’s reputation as China’s liberal loophole for trade and financial transactions.
While the Federation of German Industries (BDI) does not wish to comment publicly, it has been a critical observer of civil rights developments in the People’s Republic of China for years. According to reports, the BDI is skeptical of any change in the political trend in the near future. Instead, it expects to see stricter state control, which will also complicate the business activities of foreign companies.
The National Security Act previously included four offenses. Now it has seven:
treason
secession
subversion
theft of state secrets and espionage
external interference
collusion with foreign forces
sabotage endangering national security
Up to 14 years in prison for failing to report offenses
For instance, it contains a paragraph stating that a person can be punished with up to 14 years if they fail to report another person intending to participate in an unauthorized protest.
The wider, even extraterritorial scope the law claims is primarily aimed at Hong Kong opposition overseas. However, foreign citizens can also expect to be prosecuted in the future if they publicly campaign for a return to greater civil liberties.
Proteste
10 years of the sunflower movement: ‘We determine our own destiny’
One of the leaders of the Sunflower Movement at the time, Lin Fei-fan, speaks in Taipei on the tenth anniversary.
It has been ten years since Taiwan’s civil society spectacularly stopped the comprehensive Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) with the People’s Republic of China at the last minute. At the time, the ruling Kuomintang Party (KMT) finalized the controversial agreement after reviewing it in just 30 seconds the day before. On the night of March 18, 2014, several hundred protesters successfully occupied the plenary chamber of the Legislative Yuan, as Taiwan’s parliament is officially known.
Around 400 protesters held out in the Legislative Yuan hall for 24 days. The occupation sparked nationwide solidarity and brought hundreds of thousands onto the streets of the capital Taipei.
After around three weeks of protest, parliamentary speaker Wang Jin-pyng (KMT) finally backed down on April 6. He promised to postpone a review of the CSSTA until a law to control all agreements with mainland China – as the demonstrators had demanded – was passed. This allowed the protesters to leave the parliament peacefully. Wang was an internal party rival of then President Ma Ying-jeou, who had supported the agreement until the end. With his promise, Wang presented Ma with a fait accompli. The CSSTA has been shelved ever since and has never been ratified.
Protesters of the Sunflower Movement on March 25, 2014, during the more than three-week occupation of the parliament in Taipei.
2014: Taiwan’s era of rapprochement with China
The successful protest was in contrast to the mood at the time. Unlike today, Taiwan was on a course of rapprochement with Beijing. Against the backdrop of China’s economic rise and growing international significance – especially after the 2008 financial crisis – Taiwan’s future seemed to lie in further economic and political rapprochement with mainland China.
After eight years of tense relations with the mainland, President Ma rolled out the red carpet for China. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ruled Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, as it does today. Just one year after Ma Ying-jeou took office, the first scheduled flights between Taiwan and China were introduced in 2009 and Chinese students enrolled at Taiwan’s universities for the first time in 2011. Chinese tourists soon dominated the streets on the island, displacing the Japanese as the largest group of foreign travelers.
Say goodbye to Taiwan: The future seemed clear
During Ma’s time in power, there were plans for even more far-reaching initiatives, including a goods trade agreement and small free trade zones, recalls sociology professor Ho Ming-sho from National Taiwan University. “These efforts were perceived as an attempt to integrate Taiwan into a Chinese-dominated economic system through the back door,” Ho tells Table.Briefings. This had raised fears that Taiwan could lose its economic and political autonomy in the long term.
The US political scientist John Mearsheimer published an editorial entitled “Say Goodbye to Taiwan” in the National Interest just one month before the start of the Sunflower Movement. Sociologist Ho finds the article to be an apt summary of the prevailing atmosphere at the time: “Many international observers at the time thought it inevitable that Taiwan would gradually be integrated into China.”
Young people were worried about the future
Taiwan was also tempted to pin its hopes for a better future on the booming People’s Republic due to stagnating wages, recalls former student leader Lin Fei-fan in an interview with Table.Briefings. “Back then, the atmosphere among young people was characterized by worries about the future,” says the now 35-year-old. “The Sunflower Movement countered this narrative and showed the will of the Taiwanese people to determine our own destiny.” This will, coupled with the perceived undemocratic legislative process, ultimately gave rise to the Sunflower Movement in March.
The movement’s name was more of a coincidence: A floristry company had donated sunflowers to the parliamentary occupants. And the name was reminiscent of the Wild Lilies Movement of 1990, when students demanded the end of the KMT’s one-party rule. The protest led to the first direct and free presidential election in 1996. In 2014, the protesters wanted to defend the young democracy. “It made us angry to see how the democratic process was being trampled on,” recalls Lin.
The agreement has been shelved for ten years
The Sunflower Movement was a decisive turning point, says sociologist Ho Ming-sho. “The Taiwanese people have shown that they are unwilling to sacrifice political sovereignty and the hard-won democratic system for economic advantages.”
The Sunflower Movement also continues to have a political impact today. Two years after the protest, the KMT suffered a defeat in the 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections. The DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen, who had expressed solidarity with the protesters early on, won.
Some Sunflower activists also went into politics and were elected to parliament in 2016. “I see the fact that people who had occupied the plenary chamber two years earlier were elected to parliament two years later as a great achievement of Taiwanese democracy,” says sociologist Ho.
Taiwan’s development defied predictions
In the ten years since the Sunflower Movement, Taiwanese business people and investors have increasingly withdrawn from the People’s Republic. Overall, Taiwanese investment in China has fallen by almost 70 percent. Despite warnings to the contrary, Taiwan’s gross domestic product per capita increased by 41 percent in the same period; exports rose by 35 percent.
Student leader Lin Fei-fan sees this as vindication for himself and the movement. “If we hadn’t stopped the CSSTA, we would be facing much greater challenges now, especially during the Covid pandemic and the trade war between the US and China in 2017 and 2018,” says Lin. For example, the domestic semiconductor industry could have become collateral damage of American punitive tariffs and import restrictions.
Lin is skeptical about any future economic agreements with China. The former activist says Beijing is demanding even greater political concessions today and has thus created very high hurdles for economic agreements. “The question today is not whether Taiwan is ready for an agreement, but whether Beijing is ready for it.”
Gesellschaft
Sinolytics Radar
China’s NEV market: transitioning from rapid growth to a new era of stability
Dieser Inhalt ist Lizenznehmern unserer Vollversion vorbehalten.
In 2023, the previously extremely high growth rate of China’s NEV industry dropped again. The NEV passenger car retail growth rate experienced a significant decline, dropping from a 165% in 2021 to just 36% in 2023. This may signal an upcoming shift in the industry’s trajectory, gradually moving toward more stabilization. However, a growth rate of 36% is still remarkable, especially considering the already high initial base.
China’s NEV market is characterized by its fierce competition. BYD leads by a significant margin, followed by a small number of serious competitors. Meanwhile, the remaining smaller players are either growing slowly or even declining.
This transition signals that the Chinese NEV market is moving from a rapidly expanding market to a highly concentrated market, where only a small number of companies may still be able to reshape the competitive landscape behind the dominant BYD.
In the future, as market growth slows and competition intensifies, more companies will begin to consolidate their positions, innovation will become more focused, and market strategies may tilt toward refining products and processes rather than expanding broadly.
Sinolytics is a European consulting and analysis company specializing in China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
Wachstum
News
Nvidia expands cooperation with BYD
US chip manufacturer Nvidia is expanding its partnership with the Chinese electric car market leader BYD. The cooperation will include automotive production, in-car computing and AI training in the future, Nvidia announced. To this end, BYD will utilize the latest generation of Nvidia’s Drive Thor chip platform, which is also suitable for autonomous driving. BYD will also use Nvidia’s AI infrastructure to train AI models for autonomous driving.
The partnership will extend beyond cars to “entire workflows,” Nikkei Asia quoted Nvidia’s Automotive Vice President Danny Shapiro. BYD will use the Drive Thor platform to develop “intelligent robots” for factory planning and use in production. With the help of Nvidia’s real-time 3D graphics platform Omniverse, BYD could also improve the shopping experience of car buyers.
With this move, Nvidia shows that US companies can do good business in China despite some of Washington’s export restrictions. Nvidia cannot sell some of its most powerful chips to China. According to Nikkei Asia, the Drive Thor platform is already being used by Geely’s electric brand Zeekr and Li Auto, among others. The first cars using Drive Thor will be launched in 2025. Nvidia announced that, in addition to BYD, other Chinese car manufacturers will use Drive Thor as the “AI brain” for their next generation of electric cars. These include Xpeng and the premium brand Hyper from the company Gac Aion. ck
Nvidia
Government wants to establish local supply chains for electric cars
The Chinese government wants to establish a local supply chain for electric vehicles with the help of political support. This was reported by Nikkei Asia, citing statements made at the annual China EV100 Forum in Beijing. Zheng Shanjie, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, which oversees economic policy, said at the event that China was planning to upgrade the supply chains for semiconductors and other automotive components. Gou Ping, Vice President of SASAC, the commission responsible for the central government’s state-owned enterprises, announced plans to increase development capacity at the three car manufacturers directly under Beijing’s control: VW partner China FAW Group in Changchun, Dongfeng Motor in Wuhan and Chongqing Changan Automobile.
Beijing is likely to order the three carmakers to put more money into development – even if their profits suffer as a result, Nikkei writes. Former research minister Wan Gang, who now chairs the EV100 platform, called for innovation efforts to be stepped up in the semiconductor industry and other sectors crucial to electric cars and autonomous driving. Wan called China’s EV industry now one of the “new productive forces” with high quality. The “new productive forces” is the latest key term used by state and party leader Xi Jinping for the focused development of certain technology sectors.
So far, many successful EV manufacturers have been private companies, above all, market leader BYD. Many components are sourced from foreign suppliers. Beijing now wants to localize the supply chains and strengthen the state-owned companies in this segment. Of the three central state-owned car manufacturers, only Changan Auto can boast relatively good sales. Founded in 2014, the EV100 platform sees itself as an independent think tank for promoting new mobility, despite being close to the state from the outset. Its current chairman Wan Gang, who earned his PhD at Clausthal University of Technology and later worked for Audi, was Minister of Research between 2007 and 2018. During this time, he campaigned strongly in favor of electromobility. ck
Autoindustrie
Evergrande fined for securities fraud
Hengda Real Estate, a central unit of the China Evergrande Group, is suspected of inflating its revenues by almost 75 billion euros over two years. As reported by Nikkei Asia and others, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has leveled this accusation against the highly indebted company. The property developer reportedly then issued bonds based on this false information.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission reportedly fined the Evergrande core company 4.2 billion yuan (560 million euros) for inflating its revenue by a total of 564.1 billion yuan (72 billion euros) in 2019 and 2020, Hengda said in a stock exchange announcement late on Monday. The inflated revenue is said to make up over 60 percent of the officially reported profit in 2019 and over 86 percent in 2020. The company is also accused of failing to provide timely information about its annual and half-year figures, legal disputes and debts.
In parallel, the Chinese supervisory authority has banned Evergrande founder Xu Jiayin, also known as Hui Ka-yan, from the securities market for life – as well as former Evergrande CEO Xia Haijun. Xu was ordered to pay a fine of 47 million yuan (six million euros), Xia 15 million yuan (two million euros). Two months ago, a Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of Evergrande. The group has outstanding liabilities of over 280 billion US dollars. cyb
Immobilienkrise
Putin to visit China in May
Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit China in May for talks with Xi Jinping, according to the Reuters news agency, citing unnamed insiders. However, Moscow or the foreign ministries in Beijing and Moscow did not officially confirm this on Tuesday. The Russian presidential office said preparations for several trips and various talks are underway.
However, in February, China’s ambassador in Moscow, Zhang Hanhui, had already hinted that Putin would be traveling to Beijing. Both sides were preparing for “several meetings” between Putin and Xi, Zhang told the Russian news agency Sputnik at the time. “Putin’s visit to China [this year] will definitely be a success,” Zhang said. “China looks forward to his arrival,” he added. It would be Putin’s 19th trip to China as president.
State Council wants to attract foreign investors with 24-point plan
China’s State Council has published a 24-point action plan to further open up the Chinese market to foreign companies. It calls on local authorities and government agencies to draw up roadmaps for allowing foreign investment in more sectors. Among other things, the plan allows Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other free trade zones to choose several foreign companies to invest in specialized areas such as genetic diagnosis and treatment technologies, Bloomberg reports.
It also calls on the authorities to support qualified foreign financial institutions in participating in domestic bond underwriting and to encourage foreign investment in private equity funds. Investors in China’s bond and other financial markets are to receive preferential tax policies. The plan calls for facilitating data flows – apparently in light of the strict regulations for transferring data abroad, which foreign companies and their chambers of commerce have long criticized.
The State Council also plans to extend the validity period of visas for managers and technical staff of foreign companies and their families to two years and allow more international flights from hubs such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. The plan is a reaction to the historically low level of foreign direct investment in 2023, but according to Bloomberg, companies have become somewhat weary of liberalization promises. It would therefore be important to implement the plan quickly. ck
Visa
Beijing plans to diversify iron ore imports and is looking to Africa to do so
China wants to diversify its iron ore imports. Beijing currently sources 80 percent of this ore from Brazil and Australia. As an alternative, China is looking to Africa and has drawn up an iron ore “foundation plan”: At the top of the list of future suppliers are countries such as Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, Cameroon and the Republic of Congo.
Investments are already underway. In northern Sierra Leone, a Chinese company is currently building an iron ore processing plant at the Tonkolili mine, which holds ore reserves of 13.7 billion tons. In Guinea, China has been investing in the Simandou mine, home to the world’s largest untapped high-grade iron ore deposits. Similar projects are underway in the border region of Cameroon and the Republic of Congo. “The massive investment overseas is a part of China’s long-pursued goal of enhancing its position in the global iron ore trade,” said Liz Gao from the commodities consultancy CRU Group.
African countries also plan to diversify their economic relations and cooperate with China. Several African presidents have already traveled to Beijing for bilateral meetings with the Chinese government.
Last week, for example, President Xi Jinping received Angolan President João Lourenço. Angola wants to reduce its dependence on oil exports and instead engage in more economic cooperation in mining, agriculture and manufacturing – which suits China’s interests. Two weeks ago, Julius Maada Bio, President of Sierra Leone, visited the country. Xi promised him further investment and support for the industrialization and development of the agricultural sector. The Chinese energy company China Kigho Energy Group is planning a steel mill in Sierra Leone for processing iron ore. as
Geopolitik
Executive Moves
Lin Jian is the new Deputy Director General of the Foreign Ministry’s press department and one of the four Foreign Ministry spokespersons. He previously worked in Xinjiang as the Communist Party chief in the foreign office of the state paramilitary organization Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC).
Wen Jie has been Project Leader Test Object Management Europe at Chinese car manufacturer Zeekr since March. Wen has many years of experience in the Chinese automotive industry. His former employers included Geely and Beijing Hyundai. He is based in Gothenburg.
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Dessert
Shopping for air taxis on the internet – can things get any more futuristic? It is a reality on the online platform Taobao. Chinese drone manufacturer EHang has recently started selling its autonomous electric vertical take-off and landing vehicle EH216-S here. Clicking on “Add to cart” costs a whopping 2.39 million yuan (around 310,000 euros).
