On Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron served his Chinese visitors French delicacies in the Pyrenees. Only one day later, Xi Jinping commemorates the NATO bombs that fell on the Chinese embassy in the Serbian capital, Belgrade, 25 years ago – on site.
As openly as France received China’s head of state and party leader as a vital partner, there are very few discernible interests that the – vast majority of – EU countries and the People’s Republic still share. Xi is clearly pursuing an anti-Western agenda with his trip to Europe, says Balkan expert Florian Bieber in an interview with Finn Mayer-Kuckuk and Felix Lee. He says that Xi’s visit to Belgrade supports Serbia’s portrayal of the past. It is fitting that Serbia sees parallels between the Republic of Kosovo and Taiwan and supports China’s claims over the island. After all, Serbia also considers Kosovo a breakaway province.
It is almost even more fitting that Xi will then continue his journey to Hungary, the very EU country that will display him great skepticism towards the EU and relatively strong sympathy for China and Russia.
Nevertheless, there is one thing that China and the EU have in common: None of us are getting any younger. The societies of many countries are aging, and populations are shrinking – and this is now also happening in the People’s Republic: people are getting older and older, and too few babies are being born. It is a destructive trend – but one that could still make money. China, too, has discovered the “silver economy.” Fabian Peltscht explains how China’s economy wants to grow through the consumption of the elderly.
Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia coincides with the 25th anniversary of the bombing of Beijing’s embassy in Belgrade by the US Air Force. What kind of political signal does China’s President want to send with this?
The bombing of the embassy is the cornerstone of the Serbian-Chinese friendship – even if the relationship has only really become closer in the last 10 to 15 years. The fact that both sides reference it so much reflects Serbia’s and China’s frustration with Western hegemony, but also the supposed injustice of NATO’s intervention in Kosovo. Even back then, China supported the Serbian position against Kosovo’s independence. Criticism of the West is therefore clearly in the foreground.
What role does Xi Jinping’s visit to Belgrade on the anniversary of the bombing play for Serbia?
In Serbia’s eyes, China has become the most important international partner. Serbia has been defining its foreign policy through various pillars for some time now: relations with Russia, China, the USA and the European Union. Since the pandemic, China has become the most important partner. This is because Russia has brought fewer economic benefits since the start of the war in Ukraine. But EU enlargement and the European perspective are also seen as less attractive in Serbia. The visit on the anniversary of the bombing also emphasizes the Serbian narrative of the past, which sees itself as a victim of the NATO intervention and not as a perpetrator in Kosovo.
Have you deliberately chosen the order of Russia, China, the USA, and the EU? The EU comes last here.
Yes, from Serbia’s perspective, the relationship with the EU is really considered to be the least important right now. Economically, the EU is still important for Serbia, but not politically. The media, most of which are controlled by President Aleksandar Vučić, are clearly dominated by anti-Western imagery. China, on the other hand, is portrayed very positively.
Does that mean China is also encouraging Serbia, with its certain outsider role, to feel part of its anti-Western bloc with Russia?
Absolutely. And if you look at the fact that the only visit besides France is dedicated to Hungary, another enfant terrible, China is sending a clear signal that it is turning against Brussels. China is not looking at its economically most important partner countries, but at those with the most political heft.
How is China perceived in Serbia?
There is a very contradictory picture in Serbia. On the one hand, China is seen as a strong supporter of Serbia regarding its Kosovo policy. That is the reason for the strong statements repeatedly made by President Vučić and other Serbian politicians, who emphasize that Taiwan belongs to China – just as Kosovo belongs to Serbia. On the other hand, there is a negative image of China, a country with poor working conditions, where entire areas are polluted and destroyed. So, there is a certain amount of criticism of China.
China is building a railroad line between Belgrade and Budapest – another sign of a new axis that strengthens Beijing?
At the moment, this may indeed fit together quite well. However, the main reason for this route is still of an economic nature. This route is a line that will run from Piraeus to Western Europe. It is intended to connect the Greek port, which is in Chinese hands, with the European markets. From the Chinese point of view, that is almost more important than backing Vučić and Orbán.
To what extent are Russia and China working together in the Balkans?
Xi Jinping’s visit to Belgrade is clearly anti-Western. Of course, this also pleases Putin and weakens the EU there. In this respect, Russia is an indirect beneficiary of this policy. At the same time, however, China has overtaken Russia as the main player in Serbia, and that naturally hurts Russia.
Florian Bieber is a Professor of Southeast European History and Politics at the University of Graz and Director of the Center for Southeast European Studies. Bieber has taught in Hungary and lived in Belgrade, among other places. He is the author of the book “Pulverfass Balkan” (Ch. Links Verlag, 2023).
China’s population is getting older and older. This presents a challenge for economic growth and social systems. The state now wants to make a virtue out of necessity and is increasingly focusing on the so-called silver economy (银色经济). It offers goods and services specifically for older people and, ideally, involves the best agers as stakeholders – under the motto: older people understand the needs of other older people best.
In January, China’s State Council announced a series of measures to promote the silver economy. It calls on both state-owned and private companies to better adapt to the needs of the elderly. The range of investments called for includes areas such as mobility, digital healthcare, insurance, medicine, cosmetics and recreational activities.
Local governments are expected to issue special bonds to support the development of the silver economy. Banks will be encouraged to lend to elderly care facilities and companies that make life easier for older people. In addition, ten industrial parks dedicated to the silver economy are to be built across the country, including in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city belt and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao metropolitan area.
In just ten years, people over 60 will make up around 30 percent of the Chinese population. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, it was 297 million in 2022 – 21.1 percent of the total population. The trend has to do with two things: The low birth rate and increasing life expectancy in China.
In 1960, the average life expectancy in the People’s Republic was 44 years. It is expected to reach 83 years by 2060. This development is already influencing the self-image and consumer behavior of older Chinese people. As in the West, they are spending more and more money to look fit, beautiful and healthy in retirement. This applies to both women and men: Hardly any high-ranking Communist Party cadre does not dye their hair.
E-commerce products and services for the elderly are booming. According to estimates by a Chinese think tank, the country’s silver economy could be worth the equivalent of around 4.2 trillion US dollars in the next ten years and account for ten percent of China’s total economic output by 2035. Currently, it accounts for around six percent, China National Radio reports. Beijing wants the silver economy to boost domestic consumption, create jobs and give rise to innovations and new business models that are also of interest to aging societies in other countries. According to the “Development Action Plan for the Intelligent Elderly Care Industry (2021-2025),” these include, for example, smart trackers that monitor vital functions; exoskeletons that enhance the range of movement in everyday life; intelligent rehabilitation, training and household devices as well as telemedicine solutions for people living in rural areas.
In fact, China is not yet fully prepared for its aging population. According to a report by state broadcaster CCTV, around 90 percent of Chinese people spend their retirement years at home. Due to the one-child policy, they usually have at most one offspring to care for them. This is a massive challenge for the working population, which the low number of retirement homes cannot yet accommodate. To date, just three percent of the elderly spend their later years in such institutions. Aging in retirement homes is considered a stigma in many places.
According to the state news agency Xinhua, China requires more than six million carers in April. Currently, there is only one formal carer for every 100 elderly people. At least four are recommended. One problem is that elderly care is not a respected profession in China. There are no standardized official qualifications, meaning casual workers often look after people needing care, especially in smaller towns and rural areas. Since 2019, this job no longer even requires a high school diploma, which was previously a prerequisite.
This is why the government plans to invest more in the training and placement of geriatric nurses. For example, it will cover tuition fees, pay living expenses during training, guarantee employment, and grant pension benefits. In this way, the state also wants to create an opportunity to combat rampant youth unemployment. At present, young people tend to work in the care profession for only a short time.
The demographic pressure also offers opportunities for foreign companies. In 2016, the Chinese government announced that it would fully open the elderly care market to foreign investment by the end of 2020. Elderly care institutions will receive the same tax benefits as domestic facilities and may be wholly foreign-owned. One example is the American company Columbia Pacific, which founded the joint venture Columbia China with the support of the Singaporean investment fund Temasek, which specializes in retirement homes, among other things.
The market for medical devices and cosmetics is also attractive for foreign companies. For example, Philips offers a range of remote monitoring systems that allow medical professionals to monitor and assess the health of elderly people remotely. The Swiss company Sonova is pushing into the Chinese market with hearing aids. A market study from 2023 found that 4.2 percent of the Chinese population is currently affected by hearing loss, yet only just under one in ten people affected use a hearing aid.
In contrast, Beijing is reluctant to recruit foreign nursing workers. In 2018, China signed an agreement with the Philippines that allowed the admission of 300,000 Filipino workers, including care workers and nurses. However, these efforts are not enough. The estimated number of illegal Filipino workers in the domestic and healthcare sectors is already in the five-digit range. In the long term, China cannot avoid reforming its immigration policy, for example, through multi-year visas for certified nursing staff.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
From the air, the tidal creeks in the wetlands on the coast near Yancheng form intricate shapes resembling tree branches. Tidal creeks are narrow water channels in the mudflats from which water flows out at low tide. The tidal wetland on the coast off Yancheng is the largest of its kind in all of China. It stretches along 580 kilometers of coastline and provides ideal conditions for millions of water birds to migrate and breed.
On Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron served his Chinese visitors French delicacies in the Pyrenees. Only one day later, Xi Jinping commemorates the NATO bombs that fell on the Chinese embassy in the Serbian capital, Belgrade, 25 years ago – on site.
As openly as France received China’s head of state and party leader as a vital partner, there are very few discernible interests that the – vast majority of – EU countries and the People’s Republic still share. Xi is clearly pursuing an anti-Western agenda with his trip to Europe, says Balkan expert Florian Bieber in an interview with Finn Mayer-Kuckuk and Felix Lee. He says that Xi’s visit to Belgrade supports Serbia’s portrayal of the past. It is fitting that Serbia sees parallels between the Republic of Kosovo and Taiwan and supports China’s claims over the island. After all, Serbia also considers Kosovo a breakaway province.
It is almost even more fitting that Xi will then continue his journey to Hungary, the very EU country that will display him great skepticism towards the EU and relatively strong sympathy for China and Russia.
Nevertheless, there is one thing that China and the EU have in common: None of us are getting any younger. The societies of many countries are aging, and populations are shrinking – and this is now also happening in the People’s Republic: people are getting older and older, and too few babies are being born. It is a destructive trend – but one that could still make money. China, too, has discovered the “silver economy.” Fabian Peltscht explains how China’s economy wants to grow through the consumption of the elderly.
Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia coincides with the 25th anniversary of the bombing of Beijing’s embassy in Belgrade by the US Air Force. What kind of political signal does China’s President want to send with this?
The bombing of the embassy is the cornerstone of the Serbian-Chinese friendship – even if the relationship has only really become closer in the last 10 to 15 years. The fact that both sides reference it so much reflects Serbia’s and China’s frustration with Western hegemony, but also the supposed injustice of NATO’s intervention in Kosovo. Even back then, China supported the Serbian position against Kosovo’s independence. Criticism of the West is therefore clearly in the foreground.
What role does Xi Jinping’s visit to Belgrade on the anniversary of the bombing play for Serbia?
In Serbia’s eyes, China has become the most important international partner. Serbia has been defining its foreign policy through various pillars for some time now: relations with Russia, China, the USA and the European Union. Since the pandemic, China has become the most important partner. This is because Russia has brought fewer economic benefits since the start of the war in Ukraine. But EU enlargement and the European perspective are also seen as less attractive in Serbia. The visit on the anniversary of the bombing also emphasizes the Serbian narrative of the past, which sees itself as a victim of the NATO intervention and not as a perpetrator in Kosovo.
Have you deliberately chosen the order of Russia, China, the USA, and the EU? The EU comes last here.
Yes, from Serbia’s perspective, the relationship with the EU is really considered to be the least important right now. Economically, the EU is still important for Serbia, but not politically. The media, most of which are controlled by President Aleksandar Vučić, are clearly dominated by anti-Western imagery. China, on the other hand, is portrayed very positively.
Does that mean China is also encouraging Serbia, with its certain outsider role, to feel part of its anti-Western bloc with Russia?
Absolutely. And if you look at the fact that the only visit besides France is dedicated to Hungary, another enfant terrible, China is sending a clear signal that it is turning against Brussels. China is not looking at its economically most important partner countries, but at those with the most political heft.
How is China perceived in Serbia?
There is a very contradictory picture in Serbia. On the one hand, China is seen as a strong supporter of Serbia regarding its Kosovo policy. That is the reason for the strong statements repeatedly made by President Vučić and other Serbian politicians, who emphasize that Taiwan belongs to China – just as Kosovo belongs to Serbia. On the other hand, there is a negative image of China, a country with poor working conditions, where entire areas are polluted and destroyed. So, there is a certain amount of criticism of China.
China is building a railroad line between Belgrade and Budapest – another sign of a new axis that strengthens Beijing?
At the moment, this may indeed fit together quite well. However, the main reason for this route is still of an economic nature. This route is a line that will run from Piraeus to Western Europe. It is intended to connect the Greek port, which is in Chinese hands, with the European markets. From the Chinese point of view, that is almost more important than backing Vučić and Orbán.
To what extent are Russia and China working together in the Balkans?
Xi Jinping’s visit to Belgrade is clearly anti-Western. Of course, this also pleases Putin and weakens the EU there. In this respect, Russia is an indirect beneficiary of this policy. At the same time, however, China has overtaken Russia as the main player in Serbia, and that naturally hurts Russia.
Florian Bieber is a Professor of Southeast European History and Politics at the University of Graz and Director of the Center for Southeast European Studies. Bieber has taught in Hungary and lived in Belgrade, among other places. He is the author of the book “Pulverfass Balkan” (Ch. Links Verlag, 2023).
China’s population is getting older and older. This presents a challenge for economic growth and social systems. The state now wants to make a virtue out of necessity and is increasingly focusing on the so-called silver economy (银色经济). It offers goods and services specifically for older people and, ideally, involves the best agers as stakeholders – under the motto: older people understand the needs of other older people best.
In January, China’s State Council announced a series of measures to promote the silver economy. It calls on both state-owned and private companies to better adapt to the needs of the elderly. The range of investments called for includes areas such as mobility, digital healthcare, insurance, medicine, cosmetics and recreational activities.
Local governments are expected to issue special bonds to support the development of the silver economy. Banks will be encouraged to lend to elderly care facilities and companies that make life easier for older people. In addition, ten industrial parks dedicated to the silver economy are to be built across the country, including in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city belt and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao metropolitan area.
In just ten years, people over 60 will make up around 30 percent of the Chinese population. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, it was 297 million in 2022 – 21.1 percent of the total population. The trend has to do with two things: The low birth rate and increasing life expectancy in China.
In 1960, the average life expectancy in the People’s Republic was 44 years. It is expected to reach 83 years by 2060. This development is already influencing the self-image and consumer behavior of older Chinese people. As in the West, they are spending more and more money to look fit, beautiful and healthy in retirement. This applies to both women and men: Hardly any high-ranking Communist Party cadre does not dye their hair.
E-commerce products and services for the elderly are booming. According to estimates by a Chinese think tank, the country’s silver economy could be worth the equivalent of around 4.2 trillion US dollars in the next ten years and account for ten percent of China’s total economic output by 2035. Currently, it accounts for around six percent, China National Radio reports. Beijing wants the silver economy to boost domestic consumption, create jobs and give rise to innovations and new business models that are also of interest to aging societies in other countries. According to the “Development Action Plan for the Intelligent Elderly Care Industry (2021-2025),” these include, for example, smart trackers that monitor vital functions; exoskeletons that enhance the range of movement in everyday life; intelligent rehabilitation, training and household devices as well as telemedicine solutions for people living in rural areas.
In fact, China is not yet fully prepared for its aging population. According to a report by state broadcaster CCTV, around 90 percent of Chinese people spend their retirement years at home. Due to the one-child policy, they usually have at most one offspring to care for them. This is a massive challenge for the working population, which the low number of retirement homes cannot yet accommodate. To date, just three percent of the elderly spend their later years in such institutions. Aging in retirement homes is considered a stigma in many places.
According to the state news agency Xinhua, China requires more than six million carers in April. Currently, there is only one formal carer for every 100 elderly people. At least four are recommended. One problem is that elderly care is not a respected profession in China. There are no standardized official qualifications, meaning casual workers often look after people needing care, especially in smaller towns and rural areas. Since 2019, this job no longer even requires a high school diploma, which was previously a prerequisite.
This is why the government plans to invest more in the training and placement of geriatric nurses. For example, it will cover tuition fees, pay living expenses during training, guarantee employment, and grant pension benefits. In this way, the state also wants to create an opportunity to combat rampant youth unemployment. At present, young people tend to work in the care profession for only a short time.
The demographic pressure also offers opportunities for foreign companies. In 2016, the Chinese government announced that it would fully open the elderly care market to foreign investment by the end of 2020. Elderly care institutions will receive the same tax benefits as domestic facilities and may be wholly foreign-owned. One example is the American company Columbia Pacific, which founded the joint venture Columbia China with the support of the Singaporean investment fund Temasek, which specializes in retirement homes, among other things.
The market for medical devices and cosmetics is also attractive for foreign companies. For example, Philips offers a range of remote monitoring systems that allow medical professionals to monitor and assess the health of elderly people remotely. The Swiss company Sonova is pushing into the Chinese market with hearing aids. A market study from 2023 found that 4.2 percent of the Chinese population is currently affected by hearing loss, yet only just under one in ten people affected use a hearing aid.
In contrast, Beijing is reluctant to recruit foreign nursing workers. In 2018, China signed an agreement with the Philippines that allowed the admission of 300,000 Filipino workers, including care workers and nurses. However, these efforts are not enough. The estimated number of illegal Filipino workers in the domestic and healthcare sectors is already in the five-digit range. In the long term, China cannot avoid reforming its immigration policy, for example, through multi-year visas for certified nursing staff.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
From the air, the tidal creeks in the wetlands on the coast near Yancheng form intricate shapes resembling tree branches. Tidal creeks are narrow water channels in the mudflats from which water flows out at low tide. The tidal wetland on the coast off Yancheng is the largest of its kind in all of China. It stretches along 580 kilometers of coastline and provides ideal conditions for millions of water birds to migrate and breed.
