Demographics + Autonomous driving + BASF + Tesa

Dear reader,

With regards to COVID, the same discussion often takes place in Asia and in Europe under completely different auspices. Hong Kong, like Germany, is discussing privileges for vaccinated people. The only difference is that in Hong Kong, there are currently only one or two new infections per day. Vaccinations need a special incentive – and in the future, allowing visits to bars and restaurants could be that incentive, as shown by Gregor Koppenburg and Jörn Petring.

Is China’s population already shrinking? A report in the Financial Times has caused some confusion on this issue. Officially, Beijing denies the decline. That may be propaganda – but it ultimately doesn’t matter because sooner or later, the population will undoubtedly shrink. The low birth rate is already depressing growth and putting pressure on old-age security. Felix Lee explains what this means for the Chinese and German economies in his feature.

Huawei is already so indispensable to the mobile technology industry that Germany is tearing itself apart in debates about the right way to deal with the company. Meanwhile, the Shenzhen-based company is using its enormous software and hardware expertise to move into a new field: technical equipment that teaches cars how to drive autonomously. The company’s development chief fills us in on whether Huawei will soon become just as indispensable there.

A word on my own behalf: As of this issue, I am taking over as editorial director of China.Table. After nine years as a correspondent in Beijing, I am delighted to now be working from Berlin on reporting about this country, which is important in many respects. If you notice anything about our product or would like to share praise or criticism with us – please send me a message to the address china@table.media. I look forward to your feedback!

Your
Finn Mayer-Kuckuk

Hong Kong lets vaccinated people party again

It’s been half a year since Lang Kwai Fong really celebrated: on Halloween night on October 31, tens of thousands paraded through the bars of Hong Kong’s trendy district until the early hours of the morning.

However, the Chinese Special Administrative Region had to pay a high price for the boisterous hours: COVID infection figures shot through the roof in the weeks following the Halloween parties – at least by Hong Kong standards: For months, the city with its 7.5 million inhabitants recorded double-digit infection figures every day.

At the peak of this wave, there were even 118 infected people on one day, which corresponds to an incidence of 1.57. What sounds like a dream value for Europeans was absolutely unacceptable for the strict Hong Kong government. Therefore bars and nightclubs in the city had to close.

After a long break, people are now allowed to party again. On the one hand, Hong Kong has been reporting an average of only one or two infections per day for weeks. But more importantly, the government has made a fundamental decision that Germany is also grappling with these days: Should people who have been vaccinated or partially vaccinated enjoy more freedoms than the part of the population that has not yet been vaccinated? While the ethics experts in Germany are still deliberating, Hong Kong has made a clear decision in favor of more freedoms for the vaccinated.

Nightlife for the vaccinated

Since last weekend, vaccinated citizens are allowed to go out into the nightlife again. The prerequisite for visiting a bar or club: Guests must have received at least their first vaccination against the coronavirus. Shops also close at 2 a.m. at the latest. Establishments will not be allowed to operate at full capacity, and restaurants will again be allowed to offer tables to groups of up to eight people if they have received at least one vaccination dose. The last rule was that only four diners were allowed at a table.

The regulation details can be confusing at first, but they are nevertheless mostly gratefully accepted by catering businesses. Restaurants can now offer different zones on their premises, therefore, no one is really excluded. Tables set aside for the unvaccinated can only seat groups of four, but they must register with a contact-tracking app – at 10 p.m., landlords close these areas. Larger tables for up to eight people are reserved for the vaccinated, who can also provide proof of their immunization via an app – here, they are allowed to stay open until 2 a.m.

Those who are neither vaccinated nor want to use the contact tracking app can also go to restaurants. The staff must then enter the name and phone number by hand into a list. Guests are only allowed to eat at a table for two. The bill arrives at 6 p.m. at the latest.

Travel bubble with Singapore

Hong Kong offers not only night people more freedom after a vaccination. The just announced travel bubble with Singapore is also only available to vaccinated Hong Kongers. From May 26, travelers will be able to fly back and forth between the two places without having to be quarantined as before. Under the plan, the vaccination requirement will apply unilaterally to Hongkongers, but all travelers will have to be tested for the coronavirus. Initially, there will be one flight a day in each direction, and a mechanism is also envisaged to suspend the agreement should the number of untraceable infections rise to a weekly average of five cases a day in any of the locations. The travel bubble was supposed to start last November but was then canceled at short notice because Hong Kong again recorded more COVID cases.

With the new freedoms for vaccinated people, Hong Kong is not only helping its tourism industry and gastronomy. The government also wants to ensure that the vaccination campaign finally picks up speed with the incentives. Because Hong Kong is in a peculiar situation: Enough vaccines are available but people are still much more reluctant than in Europe, for example.

This is not just due to skepticism about the vaccines. The political climate is also playing its part. While vaccination appointments for the BioNTech vaccine are relatively well booked, many Hong Kongers are spurning Sinovac’s Chinese preparation, leading to an overall low vaccination rate. As of last Wednesday, only 11.6 percent of the 7.5 million Hong Kongers had received their first dose.

Politicization slows vaccination pace

The extent to which the politicization of the issue is damaging the fight against the coronavirus already became clear last year. In order to reach zero infections, the government planned a mass test of the entire population. In mainland cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the authorities simply ordered the mass test. Within days, it was done. In Hong Kong, by contrast, the plan failed.

The participation rate was so low, not least because the opposition camp, including well-known protest leader Joshua Wong, had called for people not to take part in the campaign. Those who talked to Hong Kong people at the time heard, among other things, of fears that saliva samples would end up in mainland China and that the security forces there would set up a gene database.

Meanwhile, the central government’s position seems clear: Two infections per day are still clearly too many. Only when no infections are recorded over a longer period of time and a high vaccination rate is achieved will quarantine-free travel from Hong Kong to the mainland be possible again. Gregor Koppenburg/Jörn Petring

Aging population offers opportunities for German economy

By

Felix Lee

Whether China’s population is already shrinking this year, next year, or not until 2027, as officials are still claiming at present, the question of timing changes little in terms of the problems associated with the consequences of the one-child policy. China’s population is aging faster than the country is achieving a sufficiently high level of prosperity. The unequal gender ratio will continue to cause frustration among many men in the coming decades because they will not find a partner. And the birth rate will also continue to fall.

These problems show: The demographic disaster is in full swing. And that has long been clear to the leadership in Beijing. Nevertheless, the issue is treated with great political sensitivity in China and must not be made public until the government agencies have reached a consensus on the data and its implications.

On Thursday, China’s statistics bureau vehemently contradicted a recent report by the Financial Times (FT) that China’s population will shrink this year for the first time in more than half a century. The statistics bureau pointed to 2019, a year in which China’s population grew from 1.39 billion to 1.4 billion. Exact data for 2020 will not be released until the results of the decennial census are available. This was only collected in November and December last year. FT, on the other hand, referred in its report to “people familiar with the data” (China.Table reported).

Why all this secrecy, you might ask. This is because the Chinese central bank has long since published figures. And as one of its papers shows, the birth rate in the People’s Republic has fallen below 1.5 children per woman. The central bank’s figures are based on surveys that the Chinese provinces and cities conducted on their own in the course of January. In some regions, such as the prosperous east coast province of Zhejiang, birth rates fell by more than 30 percent last year compared with the previous year. If those figures prove true, it would be the lowest rate in 60 years. At that time, famine prevailed in large parts of the country.

Devastating consequences of the one-child policy

But demographics are also a political issue. “If China confirms such a decline, it would be a big deal,” says Zhang Zhiwei, the Shenzhen-based chief economist at financial firm Pinpoint Asset Management. “It would be much sooner than the market and policymakers expected.” The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had estimated in its forecasts that the turning point in population growth would not occur until 2027.

An earlier decline in the population than expected would clearly show the failure of the population policy. The Chinese Communist Party under Deng Xiaoping introduced it in 1980 with the justification: Only if there was at most one child for every couple could a population explosion be prevented. The birth rate fell from an average of eight children to today’s very low level. The CCP boasted that it had prevented between 400 and 600 million births. But demographers point out that a decline in the birth rate with rising prosperity would have set in even without the rigid measures.

The consequences of the abruptly introduced one-child policy are now all the more devastating. By 2030, the number of people over 60 will rise to more than 300 million – one in four Chinese will then belong to this age group. The one-child policy is also having an impact on the gender ratio. Because many young parents, especially in rural areas, prefer to give birth to a boy, they have female embryos aborted. This has massive consequences: For every 100 women, there are 117 men. Many of those men cannot find a partner.

The current leadership could not be blamed for the introduction of the one-child policy at the beginning of the 1980s, but it can be blamed for the measures taken in recent years. Although experts had long warned of China’s ticking demographic bomb, the leadership under Xi Jinping only abolished the decades-old one-child policy in 2016 and replaced it with a two-child policy. Millions of family planners have been on the road ever since – no longer to urge young women to have abortions, as was their job just a few years ago. But to encourage them to give birth more often. But even this calculation does not work.

With the introduction of the two-child policy in 2016, 17.9 million babies were born, about 1.3 million more than the previous year. But by 2017, the number of newborns had already fallen to 17.2 million and is down to 14.65 million in 2019. Many couples, especially in big cities, feel they can’t afford a second child given the massive increases in rents and the high cost of good schools. In the middle class, in particular, demands have also risen. Most of them have grown up without siblings themselves and can no longer imagine life in a larger family.

“Many believe that liberalizing China’s rigid and anti-human rights one-child policy would solve the demographic challenge of low fertility rates and allow higher birth rates to be planned as well,” says demographer Daniel Hegemann of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development. “But even pro-birth policies hardly promise relief in the short term. After all, family policy measures only develop their effect over a longer period of time.”

Golden times for nursing home operators and the pharmaceutical industry

The repeal of the one-child policy comes too late, economists criticized back in 2015, when China’s leadership announced its end. The continuing decline in the birth rate would soon hamper economic growth in the second-largest economy, they warned. The working population had already peaked in 2011. It was around 920 million at the time. Since then, the number has been falling. The United Nations projects that China’s labor army will shrink by about 70 million by 2030. The proportion of China’s population of retirement age, on the other hand, will rise to over 300 million as early as 2025 and account for around a quarter of the population in 2030.

This also has an impact on business in China. The pharmaceutical, automation, and medical technology sectors are looking forward to golden times in China. Overall, the needs of the aging Chinese middle class will hardly differ from those in other societies with persistently low birth rates. Germany – which is already further along the aging curve – will then bring with it a whole range of products and concepts that can also be marketed in China in the future.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, however, views the demographic problem with great concern. The wealthy part of the population knows how to provide for themselves, but there will be little left for many pensioners from less well-off classes. In an April 2019 paper, researchers write that China’s main state pension fund will no longer have sufficient funds to provide adequate pensions to all those eligible by 2035, due to the increase in the number of retirees and the decline in contributing contributors. With Marcel Grzanna

Huawei wants to become the Intel of autonomous driving

By

Frank Sieren

Speaking to China.Table, Marek Neumann, head of technology for Huawei’s car accessories division in Europe, explains for the first time the tech company’s ideas for the autonomous car. Huawei wants to present itself to the auto industry the way Intel already does on computers. “Huawei Inside” (HI) is to appear small on the radiator grilles of partner vehicles in the future.

The company covers several areas, including electronics for the cockpit, driving control, and cloud services. Neumann, on the other hand, explicitly emphasizes that media reports about a planned car under the Huawei brand are false. Instead, Huawei wants to be a supplier for existing vehicle manufacturers.

Huawei decided several years ago not to concentrate on one of the areas like most of its competitors but to focus on an efficient combination of the various aspects from the outset: “Each technology has weaknesses and strengths,” says Neumann. “In combination, however, they would complement each other.”

Huawei has also paid attention to keeping the product packages for autonomous driving affordable from the very beginning. The resulting new developments are now being used by three companies in the first step. One of them is the Beijing Automotive Group (BAIC) from Beijing. Its partner is Daimler. Chongqing Changan Automobile (Changan) is another. That’s one of the big four state-owned manufacturers with partners like Ford and Mazda. Number three is the Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC), whose partners are Fiat, Honda, Isuzu, Mitsubishi, and Toyota.

Sensors interact with the software

In order to replace humans as drivers, autonomous driving cars need a lot of different information. This comes from sensors whose data is processed using artificial intelligence tools. Once the computer has a picture of the situation in the environment, it can develop the best driving strategy. From this, it derives the mechanical instructions for the vehicle. Neumann lists the four main types of sensors: lidar, radar, optical cameras, and ultrasound. Most automakers moving into autonomous driving rely primarily on one of these, while Huawei plans to use all three equally.

Google’s Waymo, for example, relies on lidar. This is a method of three-dimensional laser scanning. Tesla relies more on cameras. The high-resolution images generated by the cameras are processed by 3D software. Ultrasound, on the other hand, is already standard on many models as a parking aid. It is only used more extensively in autonomous driving. The classic radar systems, on the other hand, are familiar from blind spot assist or active cruise control, for example.

Lidar is comparatively expensive and does not provide color information, Neumann said. Cameras are inexpensive and provide color images, but can easily become dirty. Radar systems, on the other hand, are relatively inexpensive and “quite easy to steer”. But their images are nowhere near as complex as those from a camera. “The important thing is to rely on different physics, that is, information delivered in different wavelengths,” Neumann says.

It is at least as important to process the different information quickly. “That’s where it gets really exciting,” says Neumann, “because you only have milliseconds to compare the information and process it into a situation picture.” In other words, doing what the driver does practically unconsciously: “That’s the great art of autonomous driving.”

The AI then derives alternative courses of action from the situation picture. “Neumann is talking about processes that have to be completely processed between 30 and 60 times a second: “In this area, we are already much faster than our competitors.” This involves the “tactics of autonomous driving”. For time reasons, this has to take place in the vehicle itself.

5G enables remote viewing

When it comes to the next level, the “strategy” of autonomous driving, he says 5 G becomes a central element. “This is about vehicles exchanging information about areas that are visible to one vehicle but not to the other,” Neumann explains.

One of the simpler applications is traffic jam avoidance, but it becomes more complex if, for example, there is a small accident behind a hilltop. “The sensors on the car can’t see that. In this case, the information from the cars in front of you has to be passed on to the following vehicles as quickly as possible,” explains the specialist. This is because the following car now needs a new strategy adapted to the situation quickly before its own sensors can register the situation. The cars then brake at a time when the human driver would not even have noticed that there was a problem. If push comes to shove, emergency braking systems can also be pre-loaded, and dozens of mechanisms can be triggered to be ready for the inevitable. In other words, for an accident.

At the same time, Huawei is also trying to further develop the hardware. The company has introduced a miniature camera with a resolution of six million pixels. According to the manufacturer, this significantly surpasses the competition from Tesla, which remains at 1.2 million points. “The pixels are important, but they are not the only decisive factor,” says Neumann. More important, he says, is the entire optical system: “If you have a lot of pixels and a bad lens, the pixels on the outside will just show you a rainbow.” At the same time, he says, Huawei has developed a unique new head-up display that can cast all the important information on the inside of the windshield.

The socialization of mobility

In which direction is the development going? Neumann sees two major trends. One is the socialization of mobility. The question here is who will own vehicles in the future and who can use them at what price. But it’s also about increasing access to mobility, he says.“Even people who are very old and no longer see well, for example, can still be mobile with autonomous driving.” That means: they enjoy a higher quality of life for longer.

This is an important new business area for Huawei, emphasizes Neumann. Huawei wants to become as important to car manufacturers as other major suppliers, such as Bosch. The strategy is part of Huawei’s realignment. This is necessary because the smartphone business has slumped due to US sanctions. Huawei has also been cut off from using American technology.

Sales slumped 16.5 percent in the 1st quarter of this year alone, even deeper than in the previous quarter when the decline was 11 percent. At the same time, however, the margin has risen by 3.8 percentage points to 11.1 percent – a result of the policy of targeting corporate customers with its own technology. The automotive sector promises to open up a new business here. Huawei board member Eric Xu, currently also acting CEO, does the math: 30 million cars are sold in China every year. Even if Huawei were to focus only on the Chinese market and earn an average of €1,300 per car, this would be a lush source of income.

BASF invests in Shanghai Research Site

BASF wants to remain at the forefront of new materials in the Chinese market – and is investing €280 million to expand its Innovation Campus in Shanghai. Specifically, the goal is to expand its role as a supplier to the automotive and construction industries. More research and development is needed for this, according to the company.

Another goal is to improve the links between basic research and application. BASF has set up its own network of academics for this purpose, the “Network for Asian Open Research“. Here, too, the focus is more on application-oriented research, as the list of funded areas shows. Polymers are important for the development of plastics, “surfaces and interfaces” are currently the most sought-after area of materials research, battery materials play into the field of EVs, and insecticides are part of the growth market with agrochemicals. fin

Beijing passes law against food waste

China passed a law against food waste. The law provides for fines of up to the equivalent of €12,500 and targets restaurants that incentivize their customers to order too much, as well as food producers and retailers that waste food. The law also targets internet users who upload videos of food binges, according to several media reports. Restaurants will be allowed to charge a fee to customers who leave too many leftovers on their plates. Offices, school cafeterias, and food delivery services will also have to take steps to curb food waste.

Restaurants in China’s cities reportedly throw away 17 to 18 million tons of food per year. This amount alone is enough to feed 30 to 50 million people, NikkeiAsia quotes the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

According to the report, the law also comes in response to calls by Xi Jinping for greater awareness of China’s food security. He advised the public against overindulging in food and drink, according to the report, largely in anticipation of protracted tensions with the US, from which China imports soy and corn. Proposed legislation to ensure food supplies is also expected later this year.

It is estimated that China could face a food shortage of about 130 million tons by 2025 as the number of farmers shrinks. However, this is not a shortage of staple foods, Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank (China) tells the South Chin a Morning Post, but of products such as meat, eggs, and milk. There will be a livestock-feed problem above all, according to Wang. This is because China cannot produce enough feed grains such as soybeans to supply its large and fast-growing livestock industry. nib

Adhesive tape manufacturer Tesa expands production in Suzhou

Adhesive tape manufacturer Tesa has expanded its production plant in Suzhou, investing €32 million to do so. By the end of 2021, additional offices and laboratories will be built on 15,000 square meters in addition to the clean room unit that has already been constructed.

In the clean rooms there, particularly transparent films (“Optically Clear Adhesives” or OAC) can be produced. These are used in smartphone displays and are therefore in high demand at electronics locations.

The expansion will allow Tesa to better respond to customer demand in the Far East, the company said. It is also easier to develop new products together with customers. The shortening of transport routes could also reduce the impact on the climate.

Of the 750 employees in the Greater China region, 300 work in Suzhou, and 80 more jobs are to be added in the medium term. In addition to a second production plant in Shanghai, Tesa operates eleven other sales offices in the region. bw

Aircraft carrier exercises in the South China Sea

China is conducting a series of maneuvers with its 2019 commissioned aircraft carrier Shandong in the South China Sea. The exercise was described as routine training, Reuters reports. A spokesman for the armed forces said the Chinese navy would continue to go through its military exercises on schedule. The People’s Liberation Army already announced last month that it would hold such maneuvers more frequently. They are seen as a show of strength in the conflict over Taiwan and large parts of the South China Sea, which China considers part of its territory. At the same time, the aircraft carrier deployment raises tensions. Chinese fighter jets had already entered Taiwan’s air defense zone in large numbers in April. US President Joe Biden sent an unofficial US delegation to Taipei last month to show his support. The German military plans to send a frigate to the South China Sea this summer (China.Table reported). nib

Popo Fan

Documentary filmmaker and LGBTQ activist

Even today, young people from all over China come to Popo Fan to thank him: Without his film “Mama Rainbow“, they would never have dared to tell their parents the truth. In his short documentary, the filmmaker, who was born in Jiangsu in eastern China, portrayed six mothers whose children had just dared to come out. Homosexuality is still a controversial topic in China: Although it has no longer been banned since 1997, people who love the same sex still feel stigmatized.

Quite a few enter into marriages of convenience for fear of being disowned by their own families or losing their jobs. The state sweeps the issue under the carpet. “In China, it is taboo to present homosexual relationships in a positive light in the media,” explains the 35-year-old, who studied at the Beijing Film Academy and now lives in Berlin. In “Mama Rainbow,” motherly love triumphs over deep-rooted fears and prejudices in the end. “We hope to encourage people in China with these positive stories,” Fan says. “The message to the audience is: These mothers accept their children as they are, possibly your mother accepts and supports you too!”

For his films, which revolve around themes such as same-sex marriage (“New Beijing, New Marriage”), transgender (“Be A Woman”), and gender discrimination (“The VaChina Monologues”), Fan received several awards, including the “Prism Award” at the Hong Kong Lesbian and Gay Film Festival. In Beijing, he organized the “Beijing Queer Film Festival” for ten years under the radar of the authorities. Although his works are not officially allowed to be shown in his home country, he is one of China’s best-known LGBTQ activists. This is not least because he is not afraid to publicly denounce the state’s tolerated homophobia.

After “Mama Rainbow” was viewed by more than one million users in 2015, the film suddenly disappeared from Chinese streaming sites such as “Tudou” and “Youku”. Since it did not promote sex or violence, and thus did not violate the terms of use, Fan filed a lawsuit in a Beijing court. He wanted to understand which law he had actually violated. Challenging the system, which is as rigid as it is opaque, so directly was something no gay Chinese artist had ever dared to do. “We were brought up in China to keep our hands off politics because it was dangerous,” confesses Fan, who spent months fighting his way through all the courts.

In the end, he won the case insofar as the state censorship authority admitted that it had never officially requested the deletion of the film. The admission has changed nothing: Fan’s works are still not available on the video portals of mainland China. Like the state, the tech companies deny any responsibility. “The problem is that there is no clear line on what is allowed and what is not. Censorship depends on the decision-makers at the time. If one person likes something, you can get away with it, but if another person is against it, a film can be banned. For this reason, most filmmakers try to stay on the safe side. That kills creativity.” Fabian Peltsch

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Amelie
Richter

Marcel
Grzanna

Fabian
Peltsch

Julia
Fiedler

Angela
Köckritz

Jörn
Petring

Dear reader,

With regards to COVID, the same discussion often takes place in Asia and in Europe under completely different auspices. Hong Kong, like Germany, is discussing privileges for vaccinated people. The only difference is that in Hong Kong, there are currently only one or two new infections per day. Vaccinations need a special incentive – and in the future, allowing visits to bars and restaurants could be that incentive, as shown by Gregor Koppenburg and Jörn Petring.

Is China’s population already shrinking? A report in the Financial Times has caused some confusion on this issue. Officially, Beijing denies the decline. That may be propaganda – but it ultimately doesn’t matter because sooner or later, the population will undoubtedly shrink. The low birth rate is already depressing growth and putting pressure on old-age security. Felix Lee explains what this means for the Chinese and German economies in his feature.

Huawei is already so indispensable to the mobile technology industry that Germany is tearing itself apart in debates about the right way to deal with the company. Meanwhile, the Shenzhen-based company is using its enormous software and hardware expertise to move into a new field: technical equipment that teaches cars how to drive autonomously. The company’s development chief fills us in on whether Huawei will soon become just as indispensable there.

A word on my own behalf: As of this issue, I am taking over as editorial director of China.Table. After nine years as a correspondent in Beijing, I am delighted to now be working from Berlin on reporting about this country, which is important in many respects. If you notice anything about our product or would like to share praise or criticism with us – please send me a message to the address china@table.media. I look forward to your feedback!

Your
Finn Mayer-Kuckuk

Hong Kong lets vaccinated people party again

It’s been half a year since Lang Kwai Fong really celebrated: on Halloween night on October 31, tens of thousands paraded through the bars of Hong Kong’s trendy district until the early hours of the morning.

However, the Chinese Special Administrative Region had to pay a high price for the boisterous hours: COVID infection figures shot through the roof in the weeks following the Halloween parties – at least by Hong Kong standards: For months, the city with its 7.5 million inhabitants recorded double-digit infection figures every day.

At the peak of this wave, there were even 118 infected people on one day, which corresponds to an incidence of 1.57. What sounds like a dream value for Europeans was absolutely unacceptable for the strict Hong Kong government. Therefore bars and nightclubs in the city had to close.

After a long break, people are now allowed to party again. On the one hand, Hong Kong has been reporting an average of only one or two infections per day for weeks. But more importantly, the government has made a fundamental decision that Germany is also grappling with these days: Should people who have been vaccinated or partially vaccinated enjoy more freedoms than the part of the population that has not yet been vaccinated? While the ethics experts in Germany are still deliberating, Hong Kong has made a clear decision in favor of more freedoms for the vaccinated.

Nightlife for the vaccinated

Since last weekend, vaccinated citizens are allowed to go out into the nightlife again. The prerequisite for visiting a bar or club: Guests must have received at least their first vaccination against the coronavirus. Shops also close at 2 a.m. at the latest. Establishments will not be allowed to operate at full capacity, and restaurants will again be allowed to offer tables to groups of up to eight people if they have received at least one vaccination dose. The last rule was that only four diners were allowed at a table.

The regulation details can be confusing at first, but they are nevertheless mostly gratefully accepted by catering businesses. Restaurants can now offer different zones on their premises, therefore, no one is really excluded. Tables set aside for the unvaccinated can only seat groups of four, but they must register with a contact-tracking app – at 10 p.m., landlords close these areas. Larger tables for up to eight people are reserved for the vaccinated, who can also provide proof of their immunization via an app – here, they are allowed to stay open until 2 a.m.

Those who are neither vaccinated nor want to use the contact tracking app can also go to restaurants. The staff must then enter the name and phone number by hand into a list. Guests are only allowed to eat at a table for two. The bill arrives at 6 p.m. at the latest.

Travel bubble with Singapore

Hong Kong offers not only night people more freedom after a vaccination. The just announced travel bubble with Singapore is also only available to vaccinated Hong Kongers. From May 26, travelers will be able to fly back and forth between the two places without having to be quarantined as before. Under the plan, the vaccination requirement will apply unilaterally to Hongkongers, but all travelers will have to be tested for the coronavirus. Initially, there will be one flight a day in each direction, and a mechanism is also envisaged to suspend the agreement should the number of untraceable infections rise to a weekly average of five cases a day in any of the locations. The travel bubble was supposed to start last November but was then canceled at short notice because Hong Kong again recorded more COVID cases.

With the new freedoms for vaccinated people, Hong Kong is not only helping its tourism industry and gastronomy. The government also wants to ensure that the vaccination campaign finally picks up speed with the incentives. Because Hong Kong is in a peculiar situation: Enough vaccines are available but people are still much more reluctant than in Europe, for example.

This is not just due to skepticism about the vaccines. The political climate is also playing its part. While vaccination appointments for the BioNTech vaccine are relatively well booked, many Hong Kongers are spurning Sinovac’s Chinese preparation, leading to an overall low vaccination rate. As of last Wednesday, only 11.6 percent of the 7.5 million Hong Kongers had received their first dose.

Politicization slows vaccination pace

The extent to which the politicization of the issue is damaging the fight against the coronavirus already became clear last year. In order to reach zero infections, the government planned a mass test of the entire population. In mainland cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the authorities simply ordered the mass test. Within days, it was done. In Hong Kong, by contrast, the plan failed.

The participation rate was so low, not least because the opposition camp, including well-known protest leader Joshua Wong, had called for people not to take part in the campaign. Those who talked to Hong Kong people at the time heard, among other things, of fears that saliva samples would end up in mainland China and that the security forces there would set up a gene database.

Meanwhile, the central government’s position seems clear: Two infections per day are still clearly too many. Only when no infections are recorded over a longer period of time and a high vaccination rate is achieved will quarantine-free travel from Hong Kong to the mainland be possible again. Gregor Koppenburg/Jörn Petring

Aging population offers opportunities for German economy

By

Felix Lee

Whether China’s population is already shrinking this year, next year, or not until 2027, as officials are still claiming at present, the question of timing changes little in terms of the problems associated with the consequences of the one-child policy. China’s population is aging faster than the country is achieving a sufficiently high level of prosperity. The unequal gender ratio will continue to cause frustration among many men in the coming decades because they will not find a partner. And the birth rate will also continue to fall.

These problems show: The demographic disaster is in full swing. And that has long been clear to the leadership in Beijing. Nevertheless, the issue is treated with great political sensitivity in China and must not be made public until the government agencies have reached a consensus on the data and its implications.

On Thursday, China’s statistics bureau vehemently contradicted a recent report by the Financial Times (FT) that China’s population will shrink this year for the first time in more than half a century. The statistics bureau pointed to 2019, a year in which China’s population grew from 1.39 billion to 1.4 billion. Exact data for 2020 will not be released until the results of the decennial census are available. This was only collected in November and December last year. FT, on the other hand, referred in its report to “people familiar with the data” (China.Table reported).

Why all this secrecy, you might ask. This is because the Chinese central bank has long since published figures. And as one of its papers shows, the birth rate in the People’s Republic has fallen below 1.5 children per woman. The central bank’s figures are based on surveys that the Chinese provinces and cities conducted on their own in the course of January. In some regions, such as the prosperous east coast province of Zhejiang, birth rates fell by more than 30 percent last year compared with the previous year. If those figures prove true, it would be the lowest rate in 60 years. At that time, famine prevailed in large parts of the country.

Devastating consequences of the one-child policy

But demographics are also a political issue. “If China confirms such a decline, it would be a big deal,” says Zhang Zhiwei, the Shenzhen-based chief economist at financial firm Pinpoint Asset Management. “It would be much sooner than the market and policymakers expected.” The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences had estimated in its forecasts that the turning point in population growth would not occur until 2027.

An earlier decline in the population than expected would clearly show the failure of the population policy. The Chinese Communist Party under Deng Xiaoping introduced it in 1980 with the justification: Only if there was at most one child for every couple could a population explosion be prevented. The birth rate fell from an average of eight children to today’s very low level. The CCP boasted that it had prevented between 400 and 600 million births. But demographers point out that a decline in the birth rate with rising prosperity would have set in even without the rigid measures.

The consequences of the abruptly introduced one-child policy are now all the more devastating. By 2030, the number of people over 60 will rise to more than 300 million – one in four Chinese will then belong to this age group. The one-child policy is also having an impact on the gender ratio. Because many young parents, especially in rural areas, prefer to give birth to a boy, they have female embryos aborted. This has massive consequences: For every 100 women, there are 117 men. Many of those men cannot find a partner.

The current leadership could not be blamed for the introduction of the one-child policy at the beginning of the 1980s, but it can be blamed for the measures taken in recent years. Although experts had long warned of China’s ticking demographic bomb, the leadership under Xi Jinping only abolished the decades-old one-child policy in 2016 and replaced it with a two-child policy. Millions of family planners have been on the road ever since – no longer to urge young women to have abortions, as was their job just a few years ago. But to encourage them to give birth more often. But even this calculation does not work.

With the introduction of the two-child policy in 2016, 17.9 million babies were born, about 1.3 million more than the previous year. But by 2017, the number of newborns had already fallen to 17.2 million and is down to 14.65 million in 2019. Many couples, especially in big cities, feel they can’t afford a second child given the massive increases in rents and the high cost of good schools. In the middle class, in particular, demands have also risen. Most of them have grown up without siblings themselves and can no longer imagine life in a larger family.

“Many believe that liberalizing China’s rigid and anti-human rights one-child policy would solve the demographic challenge of low fertility rates and allow higher birth rates to be planned as well,” says demographer Daniel Hegemann of the Berlin Institute for Population and Development. “But even pro-birth policies hardly promise relief in the short term. After all, family policy measures only develop their effect over a longer period of time.”

Golden times for nursing home operators and the pharmaceutical industry

The repeal of the one-child policy comes too late, economists criticized back in 2015, when China’s leadership announced its end. The continuing decline in the birth rate would soon hamper economic growth in the second-largest economy, they warned. The working population had already peaked in 2011. It was around 920 million at the time. Since then, the number has been falling. The United Nations projects that China’s labor army will shrink by about 70 million by 2030. The proportion of China’s population of retirement age, on the other hand, will rise to over 300 million as early as 2025 and account for around a quarter of the population in 2030.

This also has an impact on business in China. The pharmaceutical, automation, and medical technology sectors are looking forward to golden times in China. Overall, the needs of the aging Chinese middle class will hardly differ from those in other societies with persistently low birth rates. Germany – which is already further along the aging curve – will then bring with it a whole range of products and concepts that can also be marketed in China in the future.

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, however, views the demographic problem with great concern. The wealthy part of the population knows how to provide for themselves, but there will be little left for many pensioners from less well-off classes. In an April 2019 paper, researchers write that China’s main state pension fund will no longer have sufficient funds to provide adequate pensions to all those eligible by 2035, due to the increase in the number of retirees and the decline in contributing contributors. With Marcel Grzanna

Huawei wants to become the Intel of autonomous driving

By

Frank Sieren

Speaking to China.Table, Marek Neumann, head of technology for Huawei’s car accessories division in Europe, explains for the first time the tech company’s ideas for the autonomous car. Huawei wants to present itself to the auto industry the way Intel already does on computers. “Huawei Inside” (HI) is to appear small on the radiator grilles of partner vehicles in the future.

The company covers several areas, including electronics for the cockpit, driving control, and cloud services. Neumann, on the other hand, explicitly emphasizes that media reports about a planned car under the Huawei brand are false. Instead, Huawei wants to be a supplier for existing vehicle manufacturers.

Huawei decided several years ago not to concentrate on one of the areas like most of its competitors but to focus on an efficient combination of the various aspects from the outset: “Each technology has weaknesses and strengths,” says Neumann. “In combination, however, they would complement each other.”

Huawei has also paid attention to keeping the product packages for autonomous driving affordable from the very beginning. The resulting new developments are now being used by three companies in the first step. One of them is the Beijing Automotive Group (BAIC) from Beijing. Its partner is Daimler. Chongqing Changan Automobile (Changan) is another. That’s one of the big four state-owned manufacturers with partners like Ford and Mazda. Number three is the Guangzhou Automobile Group (GAC), whose partners are Fiat, Honda, Isuzu, Mitsubishi, and Toyota.

Sensors interact with the software

In order to replace humans as drivers, autonomous driving cars need a lot of different information. This comes from sensors whose data is processed using artificial intelligence tools. Once the computer has a picture of the situation in the environment, it can develop the best driving strategy. From this, it derives the mechanical instructions for the vehicle. Neumann lists the four main types of sensors: lidar, radar, optical cameras, and ultrasound. Most automakers moving into autonomous driving rely primarily on one of these, while Huawei plans to use all three equally.

Google’s Waymo, for example, relies on lidar. This is a method of three-dimensional laser scanning. Tesla relies more on cameras. The high-resolution images generated by the cameras are processed by 3D software. Ultrasound, on the other hand, is already standard on many models as a parking aid. It is only used more extensively in autonomous driving. The classic radar systems, on the other hand, are familiar from blind spot assist or active cruise control, for example.

Lidar is comparatively expensive and does not provide color information, Neumann said. Cameras are inexpensive and provide color images, but can easily become dirty. Radar systems, on the other hand, are relatively inexpensive and “quite easy to steer”. But their images are nowhere near as complex as those from a camera. “The important thing is to rely on different physics, that is, information delivered in different wavelengths,” Neumann says.

It is at least as important to process the different information quickly. “That’s where it gets really exciting,” says Neumann, “because you only have milliseconds to compare the information and process it into a situation picture.” In other words, doing what the driver does practically unconsciously: “That’s the great art of autonomous driving.”

The AI then derives alternative courses of action from the situation picture. “Neumann is talking about processes that have to be completely processed between 30 and 60 times a second: “In this area, we are already much faster than our competitors.” This involves the “tactics of autonomous driving”. For time reasons, this has to take place in the vehicle itself.

5G enables remote viewing

When it comes to the next level, the “strategy” of autonomous driving, he says 5 G becomes a central element. “This is about vehicles exchanging information about areas that are visible to one vehicle but not to the other,” Neumann explains.

One of the simpler applications is traffic jam avoidance, but it becomes more complex if, for example, there is a small accident behind a hilltop. “The sensors on the car can’t see that. In this case, the information from the cars in front of you has to be passed on to the following vehicles as quickly as possible,” explains the specialist. This is because the following car now needs a new strategy adapted to the situation quickly before its own sensors can register the situation. The cars then brake at a time when the human driver would not even have noticed that there was a problem. If push comes to shove, emergency braking systems can also be pre-loaded, and dozens of mechanisms can be triggered to be ready for the inevitable. In other words, for an accident.

At the same time, Huawei is also trying to further develop the hardware. The company has introduced a miniature camera with a resolution of six million pixels. According to the manufacturer, this significantly surpasses the competition from Tesla, which remains at 1.2 million points. “The pixels are important, but they are not the only decisive factor,” says Neumann. More important, he says, is the entire optical system: “If you have a lot of pixels and a bad lens, the pixels on the outside will just show you a rainbow.” At the same time, he says, Huawei has developed a unique new head-up display that can cast all the important information on the inside of the windshield.

The socialization of mobility

In which direction is the development going? Neumann sees two major trends. One is the socialization of mobility. The question here is who will own vehicles in the future and who can use them at what price. But it’s also about increasing access to mobility, he says.“Even people who are very old and no longer see well, for example, can still be mobile with autonomous driving.” That means: they enjoy a higher quality of life for longer.

This is an important new business area for Huawei, emphasizes Neumann. Huawei wants to become as important to car manufacturers as other major suppliers, such as Bosch. The strategy is part of Huawei’s realignment. This is necessary because the smartphone business has slumped due to US sanctions. Huawei has also been cut off from using American technology.

Sales slumped 16.5 percent in the 1st quarter of this year alone, even deeper than in the previous quarter when the decline was 11 percent. At the same time, however, the margin has risen by 3.8 percentage points to 11.1 percent – a result of the policy of targeting corporate customers with its own technology. The automotive sector promises to open up a new business here. Huawei board member Eric Xu, currently also acting CEO, does the math: 30 million cars are sold in China every year. Even if Huawei were to focus only on the Chinese market and earn an average of €1,300 per car, this would be a lush source of income.

BASF invests in Shanghai Research Site

BASF wants to remain at the forefront of new materials in the Chinese market – and is investing €280 million to expand its Innovation Campus in Shanghai. Specifically, the goal is to expand its role as a supplier to the automotive and construction industries. More research and development is needed for this, according to the company.

Another goal is to improve the links between basic research and application. BASF has set up its own network of academics for this purpose, the “Network for Asian Open Research“. Here, too, the focus is more on application-oriented research, as the list of funded areas shows. Polymers are important for the development of plastics, “surfaces and interfaces” are currently the most sought-after area of materials research, battery materials play into the field of EVs, and insecticides are part of the growth market with agrochemicals. fin

Beijing passes law against food waste

China passed a law against food waste. The law provides for fines of up to the equivalent of €12,500 and targets restaurants that incentivize their customers to order too much, as well as food producers and retailers that waste food. The law also targets internet users who upload videos of food binges, according to several media reports. Restaurants will be allowed to charge a fee to customers who leave too many leftovers on their plates. Offices, school cafeterias, and food delivery services will also have to take steps to curb food waste.

Restaurants in China’s cities reportedly throw away 17 to 18 million tons of food per year. This amount alone is enough to feed 30 to 50 million people, NikkeiAsia quotes the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

According to the report, the law also comes in response to calls by Xi Jinping for greater awareness of China’s food security. He advised the public against overindulging in food and drink, according to the report, largely in anticipation of protracted tensions with the US, from which China imports soy and corn. Proposed legislation to ensure food supplies is also expected later this year.

It is estimated that China could face a food shortage of about 130 million tons by 2025 as the number of farmers shrinks. However, this is not a shortage of staple foods, Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank (China) tells the South Chin a Morning Post, but of products such as meat, eggs, and milk. There will be a livestock-feed problem above all, according to Wang. This is because China cannot produce enough feed grains such as soybeans to supply its large and fast-growing livestock industry. nib

Adhesive tape manufacturer Tesa expands production in Suzhou

Adhesive tape manufacturer Tesa has expanded its production plant in Suzhou, investing €32 million to do so. By the end of 2021, additional offices and laboratories will be built on 15,000 square meters in addition to the clean room unit that has already been constructed.

In the clean rooms there, particularly transparent films (“Optically Clear Adhesives” or OAC) can be produced. These are used in smartphone displays and are therefore in high demand at electronics locations.

The expansion will allow Tesa to better respond to customer demand in the Far East, the company said. It is also easier to develop new products together with customers. The shortening of transport routes could also reduce the impact on the climate.

Of the 750 employees in the Greater China region, 300 work in Suzhou, and 80 more jobs are to be added in the medium term. In addition to a second production plant in Shanghai, Tesa operates eleven other sales offices in the region. bw

Aircraft carrier exercises in the South China Sea

China is conducting a series of maneuvers with its 2019 commissioned aircraft carrier Shandong in the South China Sea. The exercise was described as routine training, Reuters reports. A spokesman for the armed forces said the Chinese navy would continue to go through its military exercises on schedule. The People’s Liberation Army already announced last month that it would hold such maneuvers more frequently. They are seen as a show of strength in the conflict over Taiwan and large parts of the South China Sea, which China considers part of its territory. At the same time, the aircraft carrier deployment raises tensions. Chinese fighter jets had already entered Taiwan’s air defense zone in large numbers in April. US President Joe Biden sent an unofficial US delegation to Taipei last month to show his support. The German military plans to send a frigate to the South China Sea this summer (China.Table reported). nib

Popo Fan

Even today, young people from all over China come to Popo Fan to thank him: Without his film “Mama Rainbow“, they would never have dared to tell their parents the truth. In his short documentary, the filmmaker, who was born in Jiangsu in eastern China, portrayed six mothers whose children had just dared to come out. Homosexuality is still a controversial topic in China: Although it has no longer been banned since 1997, people who love the same sex still feel stigmatized.

Quite a few enter into marriages of convenience for fear of being disowned by their own families or losing their jobs. The state sweeps the issue under the carpet. “In China, it is taboo to present homosexual relationships in a positive light in the media,” explains the 35-year-old, who studied at the Beijing Film Academy and now lives in Berlin. In “Mama Rainbow,” motherly love triumphs over deep-rooted fears and prejudices in the end. “We hope to encourage people in China with these positive stories,” Fan says. “The message to the audience is: These mothers accept their children as they are, possibly your mother accepts and supports you too!”

For his films, which revolve around themes such as same-sex marriage (“New Beijing, New Marriage”), transgender (“Be A Woman”), and gender discrimination (“The VaChina Monologues”), Fan received several awards, including the “Prism Award” at the Hong Kong Lesbian and Gay Film Festival. In Beijing, he organized the “Beijing Queer Film Festival” for ten years under the radar of the authorities. Although his works are not officially allowed to be shown in his home country, he is one of China’s best-known LGBTQ activists. This is not least because he is not afraid to publicly denounce the state’s tolerated homophobia.

After “Mama Rainbow” was viewed by more than one million users in 2015, the film suddenly disappeared from Chinese streaming sites such as “Tudou” and “Youku”. Since it did not promote sex or violence, and thus did not violate the terms of use, Fan filed a lawsuit in a Beijing court. He wanted to understand which law he had actually violated. Challenging the system, which is as rigid as it is opaque, so directly was something no gay Chinese artist had ever dared to do. “We were brought up in China to keep our hands off politics because it was dangerous,” confesses Fan, who spent months fighting his way through all the courts.

In the end, he won the case insofar as the state censorship authority admitted that it had never officially requested the deletion of the film. The admission has changed nothing: Fan’s works are still not available on the video portals of mainland China. Like the state, the tech companies deny any responsibility. “The problem is that there is no clear line on what is allowed and what is not. Censorship depends on the decision-makers at the time. If one person likes something, you can get away with it, but if another person is against it, a film can be banned. For this reason, most filmmakers try to stay on the safe side. That kills creativity.” Fabian Peltsch

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Amelie
Richter

Marcel
Grzanna

Fabian
Peltsch

Julia
Fiedler

Angela
Köckritz

Jörn
Petring

Feature

Hong Kong lets vaccinated people party again

Nightlife for the vaccinated

Travel bubble with Singapore

Politicization slows vaccination pace

Aging population offers opportunities for German economy

Devastating consequences of the one-child policy

Golden times for nursing home operators and the pharmaceutical industry

Huawei wants to become the Intel of autonomous driving

Sensors interact with the software

5G enables remote viewing

The socialization of mobility

News

BASF invests in Shanghai Research Site

Beijing passes law against food waste

Adhesive tape manufacturer Tesa expands production in Suzhou

Aircraft carrier exercises in the South China Sea

Profile

Popo Fan

China.Table Editors

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Feature

Hong Kong lets vaccinated people party again

Nightlife for the vaccinated

Travel bubble with Singapore

Politicization slows vaccination pace

Aging population offers opportunities for German economy

Devastating consequences of the one-child policy

Golden times for nursing home operators and the pharmaceutical industry

Huawei wants to become the Intel of autonomous driving

Sensors interact with the software

5G enables remote viewing

The socialization of mobility

News

BASF invests in Shanghai Research Site

Beijing passes law against food waste

Adhesive tape manufacturer Tesa expands production in Suzhou

Aircraft carrier exercises in the South China Sea

Profile

Popo Fan

China.Table Editors

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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