China’s reaction to the EU’s additional tariffs was not long in coming. Less than four hours after it came into force, Beijing announced that it would lodge a complaint against the decision with the WTO. But the trade dispute did not stop there: Beijing is reportedly already encouraging Chinese companies to reconsider investments in Europe or stop them altogether. The German car industry fears a catastrophic outcome – as if the sobering VW balance sheets and rising sales figures of competitors such as BYD were not already causing enough problems. Amelie Richter has summarized the most important news from the tariff escalation.
In Japan, Shigeru Ishiba remains Prime Minister despite losing votes in Sunday’s elections. He is determined to strengthen the country’s defense strategy and expand relations with Taiwan. At the same time, he wants to maintain a channel of communication with Beijing, says Professor Wu Rwei-ren from the renowned Academia Sinica in Taiwan. In an interview with Leonardo Pape, Wu explains why the balancing act could bring Japan, Taiwan and the entire Indo-Pacific region to a critical turning point.
In today’s Opinion, we take another look at the Asia-Pacific Conference in New Delhi. Well-known German politicians such as Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck spoke a lot about geopolitics and de-risking. Entrepreneur Bernd Reitmeier argues that such conferences should once again be more about business than politics. The former board member of the German Chamber of Commerce in China would like to see less lecturing from the German side at such meetings. Read his article to find out what he wants instead.
I wish you a good start to the day!
The trade conflict between the European Union (EU) and China is intensifying: Following the entry into force of additional tariffs on electric vehicles, Beijing lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Wednesday. All necessary measures will be taken to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated on Wednesday. However, it is prepared to find a solution with the EU in order to avoid an escalation of the trade conflict.
At the same time, Beijing is said to have instructed Chinese car manufacturers to halt major investments in EU countries that had voted in favor of the additional tariffs on electric vehicles built in China. This was reported by Reuters, citing two insiders from a meeting of several car manufacturers and official bodies. Several foreign car manufacturers also took part in the meeting. According to the report, the participants were advised to be cautious when investing in countries that had abstained from voting. On the other hand, they were “encouraged” to invest in EU countries that had voted against the tariffs. Germany has rejected the tariffs, as have Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia and Hungary.
This step could divide Europe even further. Ten EU member states, including France, Poland and Italy, supported the additional tariffs in this month’s vote. Five EU states were against and twelve abstained. Italy and France are actually among the EU countries that are courting investment from Chinese car manufacturers. However, Paris was also one of the main drivers of the additional tariffs.
The largest recipient of Chinese investment is currently Hungary, where BYD, for example, is setting up shop. The state-owned car manufacturer SAIC is also currently looking for a location for an electric car factory in Europe. The state-owned company is also planning to open its second European spare parts center in France this year in order to meet the increasing demand for MG brand cars. The Italian government is in talks with Chery and Dongfeng Motor about possible investments.
The EU additional duties have been in force since Wednesday night. However, the EU Commission has identified “exceptional circumstances” for the anti-subsidy case for Chinese EVs. This means that a solution with price commitments may still be found. If the manufacturers commit to this, the tariffs can be withdrawn. If the manufacturers do not comply, they can be reinstated.
An EU official said on Wednesday that the possible price agreements and associated production commitments can also be verified by means of on-site visits to the manufacturers, among other things. He emphasized that a regulation on price commitments would be in line with WTO rules. A similar regulation already exists for biodiesel from Argentina, for example.
Chinese manufacturers cannot take a detour via third countries. The EU official emphasized that the additional tariffs are based on the production of the EVs in the People’s Republic. The vehicles could therefore not be imported into the EU via countries such as Switzerland, Serbia or the UK. The EU Commission has seen a sharp increase in imports of EVs in the months since the customs investigation began. “We assume that the warehouses are full“, said the EU official.
EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Tuesday: “By adopting these proportionate and targeted measures after a rigorous investigation, we are standing up for fair market practices and for European industry.” However, the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) warned that the tariffs increased the risk of a “far-reaching trade conflict”, while a Chinese trade group denounced the “politically motivated” decision and called for dialog between the two sides.
Volkswagen, which has been hit hard by increasing competition from China, had previously stated that the tariffs would not improve the competitiveness of the European automotive industry. VW is suffering from a decline in sales, especially in its most important market, China. After nine months, the return on sales of the struggling core brand VW is only two percent. “This shows the urgent need for significant cost reductions and efficiency improvements”, explained VW CFO Arno Antlitz. The car manufacturer has announced plans to close plants in Germany for the first time in its history. According to the Works Council, this involves at least three plants and massive job cuts.
Ilaria Mazzocco from the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington told Table.Briefings: “It buys European car manufacturers a little time and offers a little more incentive to produce in Europe.” However, the tariffs are not a long-term solution. “German and European car manufacturers need to be innovative. Many of them slept through electrification and only became aware of the challenge very late. Now they have started a kind of race to catch up.”
BYD reported rising sales figures on Wednesday – surpassing global rival Tesla in quarterly revenue for the first time. BYD recorded operating revenue of 201.1 billion yuan ($28.2 billion) in the third quarter, according to a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This corresponds to an increase of 24 percent compared to the same period last year. Tesla reported a turnover of $25.2 billion in the third quarter last week.
Professor Wu, the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan has elected Shigeru Ishiba as new prime minister, however he and his party have lost support in the parliamentary elections last Sunday. Still, it seems that he will remain in office. How do you see his position after the elections, and his approach towards foreign and defense policy?
Ishiba surely is weakened after the elections. The coalition of LDP and Komeito has lost its parliamentary majority, so Ishiba will need to search for new partners. This, in turn, is likely to result in a period of political instability during which the new coalition regime’s room of maneuver for bolder policy initiatives will be substantially narrowed.
Still, I don’t think this will lead to any fundamental changes in Ishiba’s approach to foreign and defense policies. In his foreign policy, Ishiba sticks to the mainstream of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the long-time ruling party in Japan. But what’s special about Ishiba is that he is a genuine national defense expert. He served as Minister of National Defense before and put a lot of effort into building and modernizing the Self-Defense Forces, the official name of the army of Japan.
What does this mean for Japan and security in the region?
He wants Japan to be a normal nation state, and to him, a strong national defense is a core part of that. So, he wants Japan to revise its constitution and have an army just like every other country. And he previously also wanted to establish mandatory military conscription.
On the other hand, he wants to upgrade Japan’s relationship with the US. Recently, he wrote a piece for the Hudson Institute, a US-American think tank, to elaborate on this. Right now, the US and Japan have a very formal but unequal military alliance, a heritage of the 2nd World War and Cold War. The US can deploy military forces anywhere in Japan, but not the vice versa. Ishiba wants Japan to establish a totally equal status so that Japan can also deploy national defense forces on US land, such as Guam, a US territory in the Pacific. This is also meant as a symbol of political equality between the US and Japan.
What is Ishiba’s stance on Taiwan?
Shortly before his election as Prime Minister, Ishiba came to Taiwan, against the will of the PRC. He met with Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te and he emphasized, although unofficially, a very substantial military cooperation, and the necessity of an informal alliance between Taiwan and Japan.
His statements were not as strong as the ones made by Japan’s former prime minister, Shinzo Abe. For instance, Ishiba didn’t explicitly talk about if a Taiwan contingency means a contingency for Japan. To me, he seems very pragmatic and realistic. Abe sometimes would use rather populist language to mobilize the sentiments of the audience.
Does this pragmatic attitude also show towards China?
Regarding China, Ishiba notably objects to the Japanese prime ministers or high officials visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, in which all Japanese who died in the 2nd World War are honoured, including war criminals. Visits at the shrine are regularly criticized by the Chinese government. In Ishiba’s view, it doesn’t help to visit the Shrine. It just pleases the conservatives and the right wing at home, but it will produce unintended, negative consequences with China. However, he was criticized by China after he recently sent an offering to the shrine.
Overall, Ishiba is not a liberal, rather a mainstream conservative. But he doesn’t want to directly confront China, and he wants to keep a pipeline of communication open. He wants to be able to talk to China in time of crisis. On the other hand, Ishiba is also very cautious and very suspicious of China. In his article for the Hudson Institute, he directly compared Ukraine and Taiwan. And for him, China is the most prominent geopolitical rival.
Could Ishiba’s weak performance in the elections force him to make changes to his stance towards Taiwan and China?
I don’t think so. Ishiba’s aim of containing China and supporting Taiwan is based on long-held convictions instead of short-term political calculation. Besides, the necessity to contain China in some way has long become a cross-party consensus in Japanese politics. A weaker Ishiba will be forced to adjust his pace and tactics, but not the goal.
What do you think about Ishiba’s proposal of an Asian NATO?
The idea of an Asian NATO is not new. NATO was created in the late 40s. And in the 50s, the United States created the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, which was widely considered a failure and later got dissolved. Back then, there were talks about a Northeast Asia Treaty Organization as well.
So, an Asian Nato is a part of the early Cold War vision. But East Asia is much more complicated and heterogenous than the NATO region, with very diversified national interests. In Europe, the concept of NATO works, because it is a very tightly knit organization. We just don’t have the same conditions in East Asia. An Asian NATO, even if strategically favorable, is almost impossible to realize. Moreover, the recent proposal of an Asian NATO by Ishiba has already been rejected by the United States and by many Southeast Asian governments. So, we are not debating the possibility of Asian NATO right now. But we can ask ourselves why Ishiba introduced the idea.
What was his idea then?
On the one hand, we can interpret Ishiba’s move as a precaution against a possibly lesser degree of US military presence in the region. He wants to build up a parallel structure, so that regional security is not as dependent on the US. And the overall vision behind the proposal is deterrence, which he strongly believes in as a geopolitical strategy. Apparently, Ishiba doesn’t believe a bit in liberalism, which emphasizes communication and trade, hoping that frequent trade and social exchange will eventually result in regional peace. Because he believes in deterrence, regional security organizations such as NATO for him probably are the most ideal form of collective security, especially against China, for the scenario of an attack on Taiwan. And for him, Taiwan is the central geopolitical security problem in East Asia.
How will China react to Ishiba’s security policies?
Up to now, China has been quite restrained. It has not said too much about Ishiba’s election. And it seems that China had some hopes regarding him, because he is often seen as less hawkish towards China than other Japanese politicians. Overall, China apparently saw the election of Ishiba as rather good news. But I think that’s just an empty dream. In fact, Ishiba can be seen as at least as die-hard as Abe when it comes to containing China or deterring China’s invasion. But Ishiba is more skillful.
What’s the current state and what may be the future of relations between China and Japan?
Right now, the China-Japan relationship couldn’t be at a lower point. There have even been incidents of Chinese hurting or killing Japanese citizens in China. This has become uncontrollable because China has been mobilizing anti-Japanese sentiments. The government is using this to maintain legitimacy. Before, the Chinese Communist Party had maintained legitimacy through its economic performance, but this has been deteriorating, so it is mobilizing xenophobia, especially sentiments against Japan. For the future, I am not very optimistic. To me, the biggest source of problems lies in China itself. The social fiber in Chinese society is broken, and all the government does is incite nationalism. Japan can’t do much about that. Even if the most pro-China politician gets elected in Japan, he couldn’t do anything about it.
Wu Rwei-ren is an associate research fellow and professor in the Institute of Taiwan History at Academia Sinica, the national academy of the Republic of China (Taiwan). He researches national histories and comparative current expressions of nationalism in East Asia. Professor Wu speaks fluent Japanese and previously taught at Waseda University in Tokyo.
The Asia-Pacific Conference of German Business in New Delhi, India, was my sixth consecutive APK, and somehow I can’t shake off the feeling that our hosts in Asia take us a little less seriously each time. Although – or perhaps precisely because – Germany’s political presence with the Federal Chancellor, Minister for Economic Affairs and Labor Minister was higher than ever before.
Is it because Germany no longer has enough to offer the continent of Asia? Do we have topics and solutions that really help the region? Are we still regarded as an innovation leader in any field of technology?
Geopolitical tensions are hovering over all topics today. After almost three years of de-coupling, de-versification and de-risking, can’t politicians and associations in Germany finally stop lecturing companies on how to deal with entrepreneurial risks on the one hand and imposing moral boundaries on countries on the other? I would like to take part in an event in Asia again, where there is no “de-risking”, but where people talk about market potential and opportunities for cooperation. Where people meet, openly discuss strategic mistakes in market development and meet partners at eye level.
I feel ashamed when our Chancellor, as a guest in India, begins his speech by lecturing President Modi that democratic countries should not engage in exchanges with autocracies. Labor Minister Heil proudly announces that thousands of highly qualified Indian nurses are now allowed to work in Germany. If anyone in our companies tries to poach highly qualified employees, they will be kicked out of our office. We must learn to behave as guests in the world again!
Don’t get me wrong: Political flanking of economic activities is of enormous importance, especially for medium-sized companies that want to gain a foothold and be successful in Asia. However, this would also require our politicians to be willing and able to establish regular proximity, almost friendship, with their Asian colleagues. Both seem to be lacking at the moment. We should then not only address our own issues, but also deal with the concerns and problems of the region. I was already happy that there were no panels on the Supply Chain Duty of Care Act or the Accessibility Improvement Act. It is sad enough that we are constantly seriously questioning our only model of prosperity, globalization, in front of the world.
Only the organizers of the event can change this. Instead of giving four federal politicians platforms for their topics, more companies should be involved again. There is certainly no shortage of entrepreneurs who are actively involved in Asian markets other than China.
In the past, numerous ministers from neighboring Asian countries sat on panels and were a pleasure to listen to. This time, only Industry Minister Namgyal Dorji from Bhutan was present. Well, Bhutan was not on our list so far, but at least he seems to have been in a good mood. Do I have to go all the way to New Delhi to hear Ms. Stark-Watzinger? Where are the Kevin Rudds or Kishore Mahbubanis to explain to us how Asia really works and what role Germany and Europe should play? According to its statutes, the BDI conveys the interests of German industry to political decision-makers. In doing so, it supports companies in global competition. At the moment, it seems to me that exactly the opposite is the case.
Even Wikipedia knows that the Asia-Pacific Committee of German Business (APA) represents the interests of German companies in promoting trade and investment between Asia and Germany in both directions. Berthold Leibinger is regarded as the mastermind of the APA, who suggested the establishment of an Asia initiative of German business at the 4th Asia-Pacific Conference in Seoul in April 1992. Where are the Heinrich von Pierers, Jürgen Hambrechts, Peter Löschers or Hubert Lienhards today who, as representatives of major German industry, paved the way for hundreds of medium-sized companies with their intuition for Asia?
I would like to see more entrepreneurship and less politics, more humility and less lecturing, more self-criticism and fewer demands! Then I will be happy to take part again in Seoul in 2026 and look forward to more than just a few bottles of water at the evening reception.
Bernd Reitmeier supports German SMEs on their way to China with his start-up factory in Kunshan Industrial Park, near Shanghai. From 1997 to 2010, the industrial engineering graduate worked in various roles at the Chambers of Commerce Abroad in China. From 2014 to 2016, Reitmeier was a board member of the German Chamber of Commerce in China.
Editor’s note: Today more than ever, discussing China means debating controversially. We want to reflect the diversity of viewpoints so that you can gain an insight into the breadth of the debate. Opinion articles do not reflect the opinion of the Editorial Team.
One of the reasons why German car manufacturers have been left behind in China is the lack of market research that addresses the realities of Chinese life “out of the box”. Or what VW manager would have thought that Chinese customers would want to cook hotpot or cast a fishing rod in their car? Chinese premium electric vehicle manufacturer Zeekr, part of the Geely Holding Group, has already tested things like an integrated hob in its new Zeekr MIX minivan. The equipment studies have already attracted some attention on social media platforms. There is still room for improvement.
China’s reaction to the EU’s additional tariffs was not long in coming. Less than four hours after it came into force, Beijing announced that it would lodge a complaint against the decision with the WTO. But the trade dispute did not stop there: Beijing is reportedly already encouraging Chinese companies to reconsider investments in Europe or stop them altogether. The German car industry fears a catastrophic outcome – as if the sobering VW balance sheets and rising sales figures of competitors such as BYD were not already causing enough problems. Amelie Richter has summarized the most important news from the tariff escalation.
In Japan, Shigeru Ishiba remains Prime Minister despite losing votes in Sunday’s elections. He is determined to strengthen the country’s defense strategy and expand relations with Taiwan. At the same time, he wants to maintain a channel of communication with Beijing, says Professor Wu Rwei-ren from the renowned Academia Sinica in Taiwan. In an interview with Leonardo Pape, Wu explains why the balancing act could bring Japan, Taiwan and the entire Indo-Pacific region to a critical turning point.
In today’s Opinion, we take another look at the Asia-Pacific Conference in New Delhi. Well-known German politicians such as Olaf Scholz and Robert Habeck spoke a lot about geopolitics and de-risking. Entrepreneur Bernd Reitmeier argues that such conferences should once again be more about business than politics. The former board member of the German Chamber of Commerce in China would like to see less lecturing from the German side at such meetings. Read his article to find out what he wants instead.
I wish you a good start to the day!
The trade conflict between the European Union (EU) and China is intensifying: Following the entry into force of additional tariffs on electric vehicles, Beijing lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) on Wednesday. All necessary measures will be taken to protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese companies, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated on Wednesday. However, it is prepared to find a solution with the EU in order to avoid an escalation of the trade conflict.
At the same time, Beijing is said to have instructed Chinese car manufacturers to halt major investments in EU countries that had voted in favor of the additional tariffs on electric vehicles built in China. This was reported by Reuters, citing two insiders from a meeting of several car manufacturers and official bodies. Several foreign car manufacturers also took part in the meeting. According to the report, the participants were advised to be cautious when investing in countries that had abstained from voting. On the other hand, they were “encouraged” to invest in EU countries that had voted against the tariffs. Germany has rejected the tariffs, as have Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia and Hungary.
This step could divide Europe even further. Ten EU member states, including France, Poland and Italy, supported the additional tariffs in this month’s vote. Five EU states were against and twelve abstained. Italy and France are actually among the EU countries that are courting investment from Chinese car manufacturers. However, Paris was also one of the main drivers of the additional tariffs.
The largest recipient of Chinese investment is currently Hungary, where BYD, for example, is setting up shop. The state-owned car manufacturer SAIC is also currently looking for a location for an electric car factory in Europe. The state-owned company is also planning to open its second European spare parts center in France this year in order to meet the increasing demand for MG brand cars. The Italian government is in talks with Chery and Dongfeng Motor about possible investments.
The EU additional duties have been in force since Wednesday night. However, the EU Commission has identified “exceptional circumstances” for the anti-subsidy case for Chinese EVs. This means that a solution with price commitments may still be found. If the manufacturers commit to this, the tariffs can be withdrawn. If the manufacturers do not comply, they can be reinstated.
An EU official said on Wednesday that the possible price agreements and associated production commitments can also be verified by means of on-site visits to the manufacturers, among other things. He emphasized that a regulation on price commitments would be in line with WTO rules. A similar regulation already exists for biodiesel from Argentina, for example.
Chinese manufacturers cannot take a detour via third countries. The EU official emphasized that the additional tariffs are based on the production of the EVs in the People’s Republic. The vehicles could therefore not be imported into the EU via countries such as Switzerland, Serbia or the UK. The EU Commission has seen a sharp increase in imports of EVs in the months since the customs investigation began. “We assume that the warehouses are full“, said the EU official.
EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said on Tuesday: “By adopting these proportionate and targeted measures after a rigorous investigation, we are standing up for fair market practices and for European industry.” However, the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) warned that the tariffs increased the risk of a “far-reaching trade conflict”, while a Chinese trade group denounced the “politically motivated” decision and called for dialog between the two sides.
Volkswagen, which has been hit hard by increasing competition from China, had previously stated that the tariffs would not improve the competitiveness of the European automotive industry. VW is suffering from a decline in sales, especially in its most important market, China. After nine months, the return on sales of the struggling core brand VW is only two percent. “This shows the urgent need for significant cost reductions and efficiency improvements”, explained VW CFO Arno Antlitz. The car manufacturer has announced plans to close plants in Germany for the first time in its history. According to the Works Council, this involves at least three plants and massive job cuts.
Ilaria Mazzocco from the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington told Table.Briefings: “It buys European car manufacturers a little time and offers a little more incentive to produce in Europe.” However, the tariffs are not a long-term solution. “German and European car manufacturers need to be innovative. Many of them slept through electrification and only became aware of the challenge very late. Now they have started a kind of race to catch up.”
BYD reported rising sales figures on Wednesday – surpassing global rival Tesla in quarterly revenue for the first time. BYD recorded operating revenue of 201.1 billion yuan ($28.2 billion) in the third quarter, according to a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This corresponds to an increase of 24 percent compared to the same period last year. Tesla reported a turnover of $25.2 billion in the third quarter last week.
Professor Wu, the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan has elected Shigeru Ishiba as new prime minister, however he and his party have lost support in the parliamentary elections last Sunday. Still, it seems that he will remain in office. How do you see his position after the elections, and his approach towards foreign and defense policy?
Ishiba surely is weakened after the elections. The coalition of LDP and Komeito has lost its parliamentary majority, so Ishiba will need to search for new partners. This, in turn, is likely to result in a period of political instability during which the new coalition regime’s room of maneuver for bolder policy initiatives will be substantially narrowed.
Still, I don’t think this will lead to any fundamental changes in Ishiba’s approach to foreign and defense policies. In his foreign policy, Ishiba sticks to the mainstream of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the long-time ruling party in Japan. But what’s special about Ishiba is that he is a genuine national defense expert. He served as Minister of National Defense before and put a lot of effort into building and modernizing the Self-Defense Forces, the official name of the army of Japan.
What does this mean for Japan and security in the region?
He wants Japan to be a normal nation state, and to him, a strong national defense is a core part of that. So, he wants Japan to revise its constitution and have an army just like every other country. And he previously also wanted to establish mandatory military conscription.
On the other hand, he wants to upgrade Japan’s relationship with the US. Recently, he wrote a piece for the Hudson Institute, a US-American think tank, to elaborate on this. Right now, the US and Japan have a very formal but unequal military alliance, a heritage of the 2nd World War and Cold War. The US can deploy military forces anywhere in Japan, but not the vice versa. Ishiba wants Japan to establish a totally equal status so that Japan can also deploy national defense forces on US land, such as Guam, a US territory in the Pacific. This is also meant as a symbol of political equality between the US and Japan.
What is Ishiba’s stance on Taiwan?
Shortly before his election as Prime Minister, Ishiba came to Taiwan, against the will of the PRC. He met with Taiwan’s president Lai Ching-te and he emphasized, although unofficially, a very substantial military cooperation, and the necessity of an informal alliance between Taiwan and Japan.
His statements were not as strong as the ones made by Japan’s former prime minister, Shinzo Abe. For instance, Ishiba didn’t explicitly talk about if a Taiwan contingency means a contingency for Japan. To me, he seems very pragmatic and realistic. Abe sometimes would use rather populist language to mobilize the sentiments of the audience.
Does this pragmatic attitude also show towards China?
Regarding China, Ishiba notably objects to the Japanese prime ministers or high officials visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, in which all Japanese who died in the 2nd World War are honoured, including war criminals. Visits at the shrine are regularly criticized by the Chinese government. In Ishiba’s view, it doesn’t help to visit the Shrine. It just pleases the conservatives and the right wing at home, but it will produce unintended, negative consequences with China. However, he was criticized by China after he recently sent an offering to the shrine.
Overall, Ishiba is not a liberal, rather a mainstream conservative. But he doesn’t want to directly confront China, and he wants to keep a pipeline of communication open. He wants to be able to talk to China in time of crisis. On the other hand, Ishiba is also very cautious and very suspicious of China. In his article for the Hudson Institute, he directly compared Ukraine and Taiwan. And for him, China is the most prominent geopolitical rival.
Could Ishiba’s weak performance in the elections force him to make changes to his stance towards Taiwan and China?
I don’t think so. Ishiba’s aim of containing China and supporting Taiwan is based on long-held convictions instead of short-term political calculation. Besides, the necessity to contain China in some way has long become a cross-party consensus in Japanese politics. A weaker Ishiba will be forced to adjust his pace and tactics, but not the goal.
What do you think about Ishiba’s proposal of an Asian NATO?
The idea of an Asian NATO is not new. NATO was created in the late 40s. And in the 50s, the United States created the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization, which was widely considered a failure and later got dissolved. Back then, there were talks about a Northeast Asia Treaty Organization as well.
So, an Asian Nato is a part of the early Cold War vision. But East Asia is much more complicated and heterogenous than the NATO region, with very diversified national interests. In Europe, the concept of NATO works, because it is a very tightly knit organization. We just don’t have the same conditions in East Asia. An Asian NATO, even if strategically favorable, is almost impossible to realize. Moreover, the recent proposal of an Asian NATO by Ishiba has already been rejected by the United States and by many Southeast Asian governments. So, we are not debating the possibility of Asian NATO right now. But we can ask ourselves why Ishiba introduced the idea.
What was his idea then?
On the one hand, we can interpret Ishiba’s move as a precaution against a possibly lesser degree of US military presence in the region. He wants to build up a parallel structure, so that regional security is not as dependent on the US. And the overall vision behind the proposal is deterrence, which he strongly believes in as a geopolitical strategy. Apparently, Ishiba doesn’t believe a bit in liberalism, which emphasizes communication and trade, hoping that frequent trade and social exchange will eventually result in regional peace. Because he believes in deterrence, regional security organizations such as NATO for him probably are the most ideal form of collective security, especially against China, for the scenario of an attack on Taiwan. And for him, Taiwan is the central geopolitical security problem in East Asia.
How will China react to Ishiba’s security policies?
Up to now, China has been quite restrained. It has not said too much about Ishiba’s election. And it seems that China had some hopes regarding him, because he is often seen as less hawkish towards China than other Japanese politicians. Overall, China apparently saw the election of Ishiba as rather good news. But I think that’s just an empty dream. In fact, Ishiba can be seen as at least as die-hard as Abe when it comes to containing China or deterring China’s invasion. But Ishiba is more skillful.
What’s the current state and what may be the future of relations between China and Japan?
Right now, the China-Japan relationship couldn’t be at a lower point. There have even been incidents of Chinese hurting or killing Japanese citizens in China. This has become uncontrollable because China has been mobilizing anti-Japanese sentiments. The government is using this to maintain legitimacy. Before, the Chinese Communist Party had maintained legitimacy through its economic performance, but this has been deteriorating, so it is mobilizing xenophobia, especially sentiments against Japan. For the future, I am not very optimistic. To me, the biggest source of problems lies in China itself. The social fiber in Chinese society is broken, and all the government does is incite nationalism. Japan can’t do much about that. Even if the most pro-China politician gets elected in Japan, he couldn’t do anything about it.
Wu Rwei-ren is an associate research fellow and professor in the Institute of Taiwan History at Academia Sinica, the national academy of the Republic of China (Taiwan). He researches national histories and comparative current expressions of nationalism in East Asia. Professor Wu speaks fluent Japanese and previously taught at Waseda University in Tokyo.
The Asia-Pacific Conference of German Business in New Delhi, India, was my sixth consecutive APK, and somehow I can’t shake off the feeling that our hosts in Asia take us a little less seriously each time. Although – or perhaps precisely because – Germany’s political presence with the Federal Chancellor, Minister for Economic Affairs and Labor Minister was higher than ever before.
Is it because Germany no longer has enough to offer the continent of Asia? Do we have topics and solutions that really help the region? Are we still regarded as an innovation leader in any field of technology?
Geopolitical tensions are hovering over all topics today. After almost three years of de-coupling, de-versification and de-risking, can’t politicians and associations in Germany finally stop lecturing companies on how to deal with entrepreneurial risks on the one hand and imposing moral boundaries on countries on the other? I would like to take part in an event in Asia again, where there is no “de-risking”, but where people talk about market potential and opportunities for cooperation. Where people meet, openly discuss strategic mistakes in market development and meet partners at eye level.
I feel ashamed when our Chancellor, as a guest in India, begins his speech by lecturing President Modi that democratic countries should not engage in exchanges with autocracies. Labor Minister Heil proudly announces that thousands of highly qualified Indian nurses are now allowed to work in Germany. If anyone in our companies tries to poach highly qualified employees, they will be kicked out of our office. We must learn to behave as guests in the world again!
Don’t get me wrong: Political flanking of economic activities is of enormous importance, especially for medium-sized companies that want to gain a foothold and be successful in Asia. However, this would also require our politicians to be willing and able to establish regular proximity, almost friendship, with their Asian colleagues. Both seem to be lacking at the moment. We should then not only address our own issues, but also deal with the concerns and problems of the region. I was already happy that there were no panels on the Supply Chain Duty of Care Act or the Accessibility Improvement Act. It is sad enough that we are constantly seriously questioning our only model of prosperity, globalization, in front of the world.
Only the organizers of the event can change this. Instead of giving four federal politicians platforms for their topics, more companies should be involved again. There is certainly no shortage of entrepreneurs who are actively involved in Asian markets other than China.
In the past, numerous ministers from neighboring Asian countries sat on panels and were a pleasure to listen to. This time, only Industry Minister Namgyal Dorji from Bhutan was present. Well, Bhutan was not on our list so far, but at least he seems to have been in a good mood. Do I have to go all the way to New Delhi to hear Ms. Stark-Watzinger? Where are the Kevin Rudds or Kishore Mahbubanis to explain to us how Asia really works and what role Germany and Europe should play? According to its statutes, the BDI conveys the interests of German industry to political decision-makers. In doing so, it supports companies in global competition. At the moment, it seems to me that exactly the opposite is the case.
Even Wikipedia knows that the Asia-Pacific Committee of German Business (APA) represents the interests of German companies in promoting trade and investment between Asia and Germany in both directions. Berthold Leibinger is regarded as the mastermind of the APA, who suggested the establishment of an Asia initiative of German business at the 4th Asia-Pacific Conference in Seoul in April 1992. Where are the Heinrich von Pierers, Jürgen Hambrechts, Peter Löschers or Hubert Lienhards today who, as representatives of major German industry, paved the way for hundreds of medium-sized companies with their intuition for Asia?
I would like to see more entrepreneurship and less politics, more humility and less lecturing, more self-criticism and fewer demands! Then I will be happy to take part again in Seoul in 2026 and look forward to more than just a few bottles of water at the evening reception.
Bernd Reitmeier supports German SMEs on their way to China with his start-up factory in Kunshan Industrial Park, near Shanghai. From 1997 to 2010, the industrial engineering graduate worked in various roles at the Chambers of Commerce Abroad in China. From 2014 to 2016, Reitmeier was a board member of the German Chamber of Commerce in China.
Editor’s note: Today more than ever, discussing China means debating controversially. We want to reflect the diversity of viewpoints so that you can gain an insight into the breadth of the debate. Opinion articles do not reflect the opinion of the Editorial Team.
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