China is slowly beating the United States in the tug-of-war over influence in Southeast Asia. Admittedly, the people in Asia would rather not have to choose between the two superpowers. But if they are forced to decide, a very narrow majority now favors the People’s Republic – last year, three-fifths still opted for the United States.
Christiane Kuehl has drawn these and many other interesting insights into perceptions of China in the region from a recent study. Among them: The growing dependence on the important economic partner does not necessarily go hand in hand with growing affection – on the contrary, there is often increasing skepticism. And: The answers vary greatly depending on the country of origin. Vietnam and the Philippines, for instance, remain overwhelmingly pro-US.
Fittingly, the Philippine president and Japan’s Prime Minister have agreed to meet with Joe Biden at the White House tomorrow for a joint summit. This is a remarkable event, writes Michael Radunski, as the nations have been historically deeply hostile to each other. Now, the focus on China is bringing them together. The common enemy will probably bring them closer to military cooperation, and Japan could even join the AUKUS Pact. As expected, Beijing has reacted furiously to these plans.
It is an unusual meeting that will take place tomorrow, Thursday, at the White House. US President Joe Biden will receive the government leaders of Japan and the Philippines for a trilateral summit. Their blood-soaked histories, intertwined by war crimes and mutual colonization, made mutual understanding impossible for a long time. But that has changed. And the reason is China.
This Wednesday, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet Biden for bilateral talks before speaking to the US Congress on Thursday. Kishida is only the second Japanese head of government to be granted this honor. On Thursday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos will meet with Biden – before all three finally come together for the trilateral summit. The overarching topics are the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands and Taiwan. So, it is clear that the main focus will be on China.
After all, China’s behavior in all three areas is causing great concern among its neighbors. Dan Smith, Director of the renowned peace research institute SIPRI in Stockholm, recently made clear: “China’s build-up is geared towards its immediate territorial goals.”
While the United States is concerned about global supremacy in the abstract, Japan and the Philippines are engaged in very real territorial disputes with the People’s Republic: Japan’s dispute in the East China Sea is over the Senkaku Islands, which China calls Diaoyu. The Philippines is at odds with Beijing over territories in the South China Sea.
Then there is Taiwan. Both President Marcos and Prime Minister Kishida have recently emphasized the importance of peace in Taiwan for the national security of their nations. “Should there, in fact, be conflict in that area … it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not somehow get involved,” Marcos said in an interview with Nikkei Asia.
Japan, in turn, covers 90 percent of its energy demand via the shipping routes around Taiwan. This means Japan’s economic stability is essentially linked to free sea routes around the island off the Chinese coast. As the routes extend deep into the South China Sea, the government in Tokyo regularly calls for a “free and open Indo-Pacific” – a phrase coined by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe and which has long since become the guiding principle of the US military in the region.
The three countries also strive for closer military cooperation to achieve this goal. Japan wants to take the biggest step – and join the so-called AUKUS alliance between Australia, the UK and the United States. The security pact from 2021 is intended to show strength towards China – just like a number of military decisions in recent years. For example, the US stationed a nuclear-capable B-52 bomber in northern Australia and a US warship in Sydney Harbour.
Experts expect Kishida to tell Biden of his country’s wish to join. However, accession in the near future is rather unlikely for various reasons, including the lack of cyber protection measures in Japan’s military systems. However, in-depth, project-related cooperation between Japan and the AUKUS states is certainly conceivable. Additionally, news emerged on Tuesday that Canada is also interested in joining AUKUS.
China’s reaction was as swift as it was predictable. The Chinese Foreign Ministry wrote on X that it was “gravely concerned” that the US, UK and Australia were sending signals of AUKUS expansion. “We oppose exclusive groupings and bloc confrontation.” Such a move would “intensify the arms race in the Indo-Pacific region and disrupt regional peace and stability,“ Beijing warned, according to the South China Morning Post. “Japan, in particular, should deeply learn from historical lessons and exercise caution in military security.”
Japan recently decided to double its defense spending to two percent of gross domestic product, making it the third-largest military spender in the world. Among other things, it plans to purchase hundreds of cruise missiles capable of hitting targets at a distance of 1,000 kilometers.
As the US broadcaster CNN reports, Japan could also serve the US as a potential ammunition manufacturer. Among other things, Patriot PAC3 missile defense systems could be manufactured there for delivery to Ukraine. Japan already supplied the Philippines with air defense radars last year. Negotiations are also currently underway on a reciprocal agreement that would make it easier for Japanese troops to train in the Philippines.
A look at the treaty web between the US, Japan and the Philippines shows just how quickly a conflict over Taiwan could escalate. The Taiwan Relations Act obliges Washington to provide weapons for the island’s defense. And US President Biden has repeatedly made clear that he would also deploy US military forces in the event of a Chinese invasion.
The Philippines and Japan each have their own defense agreement with the United States, which gives the US military permanent bases in Japan and base rights in the Philippines.
The USA and China are engaged in an ever-fiercer battle for influence in Southeast Asia. However, the region refuses to choose between the bickering superpowers. Instead, it tries to find a way to benefit from both sides.
This balance is reflected in diplomatic relations: For example, the newly elected future Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto first traveled to Beijing in April and then directly to US ally Japan. It is also reflected in the people’s stance.
In one of the most important surveys in the ASEAN group of nations, the “State of Southeast Asia 2024” conducted by the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, around 2,000 respondents favored China over the US as a partner by a narrow margin for the first time. 50.5 percent of respondents chose the People’s Republic when asked which superpower they would prefer as a partner if they had to choose between the two.
This is a significant change compared to 2023 when over 60 percent still preferred the US. However, there are clear regional differences today: While the vast majority in Vietnam and the Philippines favored the USA, China was far ahead in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Just over half of respondents also expect relations with China to improve in the future. This has also shifted: In 2023, it was still below 40 percent. This trend may seem surprising from a Western perspective, given the growing tensions in the South China Sea, for example. Especially as the US and the EU generally expect relations with Beijing to worsen.
That is precisely why such surveys are important. They help to understand the prevailing mood in a region that the West is courting so vehemently in its Indo-Pacific strategies – and this mood is ambivalent towards both China and the US, as the recently presented survey shows.
As the largest trading partner and dominant regional power in Southeast Asia, the People’s Republic plays a role in almost everything and, therefore, has to be included by governments in all decisions relevant to foreign policy.
This realization is reflected in the study. Most respondents (59.3 percent) consider China the most economically influential country in the region; 43.9 percent see China as the greatest political and strategic power in the region. Both figures clearly beat those of the US. Only one in ten see the US in the lead in economic terms – but one in three in political and strategic matters. This, in turn, shows that the people of the ASEAN states perceive the USA primarily as a political player and less as an economic partner.
The researchers believe that one reason for this is the disappointment over the weak economic commitment of the US in Southeast Asia. The fact that Washington has not drafted any plans for actual economic cooperation with the region seems to backfire.
Only around two-fifths of respondents expressed positive expectations regarding the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) program, which US President Joe Biden introduced in May 2022 as an offer for regional partners, compared to just over 45 percent last year.
The IPEF is supposed to promote resilience, sustainability, fairness and competitiveness in the 13 partner countries, including seven ASEAN countries, but does not offer them preferential US market access. The ASEAN countries Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar were also excluded.
This is probably why around 45 percent of IPEF critics in the survey agreed with the statement that IPEF “will not offer greater market access for my country but impose adjustments and compliance costs.” Just under a third of critics believe that IPEF will exacerbate the trade conflict between China and the US, with consequences for their region.
Conversely, the economic integration of the ASEAN states with China continues to grow, for example, through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade zone, also launched in 2022. In addition to China and ASEAN, RCEP also includes Australia, Japan, and South Korea – but not the US.
What’s more, people are clearly most concerned about their material security: fear of recession and unemployment tops the list of concerns in the survey, ahead of the climate crisis and growing economic tensions between the superpowers.
The responses on Beijing’s influence in the region demonstrate that close economic cooperation with China does not rule out skepticism towards the People’s Republic. Over two-thirds of respondents expressed concern about China’s growing economic influence. Almost three-quarters expressed unease about China’s growing political and strategic influence. However, just under 60 percent are also concerned about the US’s growing political and strategic role. A slightly equal proportion welcomed the growing weight of ASEAN in the region.
One in two also expressed suspicion toward China. Around 45 percent even fear that China could use its military and economic power to threaten their countries’ sovereignty and interests.
It is fitting that approval of ASEAN’s cooperation with the quad security alliance of the USA, India, Australia, and Japan, which is clearly aligned against China, has increased significantly: Two-fifths now consider the cooperation to be beneficial, compared to 31 percent last year.
The Gaza war is people’s biggest foreign policy concern, followed by China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea. Unsurprisingly, “China’s strong-arm tactics in the South China Sea” is the biggest concern of respondents in Vietnam (over 70 percent) and the Philippines (over 90 percent): both countries regularly clash with China in disputed waters.
Almost two-fifths of respondents in the survey expressed concern about military tensions in Asian hotspots such as North Korea or the Taiwan Strait. A quarter fear that their country would be forced to choose between the USA and China in the event of a military conflict over Taiwan. And that is precisely what people do not want. 46.8 percent of respondents agreed with the statement: “ASEAN should enhance its resilience and unity to fend off pressure from the two major powers.”
Around 30 percent are in favor of continuing to ally neither with China nor with the USA. Only eight percent believe it is necessary to choose between the two powers. While 36 percent want to remain neutral in the event of a war over Taiwan, only small minorities support sanctions against China or direct support for one of the two sides.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
Rapeseed as a tourist attraction: Xinghua, located in the coastal province of Jiangsu, has built a special site crisscrossed by small canals, complete with pavilions and traditionally designed boats. From the air, the site looks almost like yellow Chinese characters surrounded by water. In April, rapeseed blossoms all over southern China.
China is slowly beating the United States in the tug-of-war over influence in Southeast Asia. Admittedly, the people in Asia would rather not have to choose between the two superpowers. But if they are forced to decide, a very narrow majority now favors the People’s Republic – last year, three-fifths still opted for the United States.
Christiane Kuehl has drawn these and many other interesting insights into perceptions of China in the region from a recent study. Among them: The growing dependence on the important economic partner does not necessarily go hand in hand with growing affection – on the contrary, there is often increasing skepticism. And: The answers vary greatly depending on the country of origin. Vietnam and the Philippines, for instance, remain overwhelmingly pro-US.
Fittingly, the Philippine president and Japan’s Prime Minister have agreed to meet with Joe Biden at the White House tomorrow for a joint summit. This is a remarkable event, writes Michael Radunski, as the nations have been historically deeply hostile to each other. Now, the focus on China is bringing them together. The common enemy will probably bring them closer to military cooperation, and Japan could even join the AUKUS Pact. As expected, Beijing has reacted furiously to these plans.
It is an unusual meeting that will take place tomorrow, Thursday, at the White House. US President Joe Biden will receive the government leaders of Japan and the Philippines for a trilateral summit. Their blood-soaked histories, intertwined by war crimes and mutual colonization, made mutual understanding impossible for a long time. But that has changed. And the reason is China.
This Wednesday, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet Biden for bilateral talks before speaking to the US Congress on Thursday. Kishida is only the second Japanese head of government to be granted this honor. On Thursday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos will meet with Biden – before all three finally come together for the trilateral summit. The overarching topics are the South China Sea, the Senkaku Islands and Taiwan. So, it is clear that the main focus will be on China.
After all, China’s behavior in all three areas is causing great concern among its neighbors. Dan Smith, Director of the renowned peace research institute SIPRI in Stockholm, recently made clear: “China’s build-up is geared towards its immediate territorial goals.”
While the United States is concerned about global supremacy in the abstract, Japan and the Philippines are engaged in very real territorial disputes with the People’s Republic: Japan’s dispute in the East China Sea is over the Senkaku Islands, which China calls Diaoyu. The Philippines is at odds with Beijing over territories in the South China Sea.
Then there is Taiwan. Both President Marcos and Prime Minister Kishida have recently emphasized the importance of peace in Taiwan for the national security of their nations. “Should there, in fact, be conflict in that area … it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not somehow get involved,” Marcos said in an interview with Nikkei Asia.
Japan, in turn, covers 90 percent of its energy demand via the shipping routes around Taiwan. This means Japan’s economic stability is essentially linked to free sea routes around the island off the Chinese coast. As the routes extend deep into the South China Sea, the government in Tokyo regularly calls for a “free and open Indo-Pacific” – a phrase coined by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe and which has long since become the guiding principle of the US military in the region.
The three countries also strive for closer military cooperation to achieve this goal. Japan wants to take the biggest step – and join the so-called AUKUS alliance between Australia, the UK and the United States. The security pact from 2021 is intended to show strength towards China – just like a number of military decisions in recent years. For example, the US stationed a nuclear-capable B-52 bomber in northern Australia and a US warship in Sydney Harbour.
Experts expect Kishida to tell Biden of his country’s wish to join. However, accession in the near future is rather unlikely for various reasons, including the lack of cyber protection measures in Japan’s military systems. However, in-depth, project-related cooperation between Japan and the AUKUS states is certainly conceivable. Additionally, news emerged on Tuesday that Canada is also interested in joining AUKUS.
China’s reaction was as swift as it was predictable. The Chinese Foreign Ministry wrote on X that it was “gravely concerned” that the US, UK and Australia were sending signals of AUKUS expansion. “We oppose exclusive groupings and bloc confrontation.” Such a move would “intensify the arms race in the Indo-Pacific region and disrupt regional peace and stability,“ Beijing warned, according to the South China Morning Post. “Japan, in particular, should deeply learn from historical lessons and exercise caution in military security.”
Japan recently decided to double its defense spending to two percent of gross domestic product, making it the third-largest military spender in the world. Among other things, it plans to purchase hundreds of cruise missiles capable of hitting targets at a distance of 1,000 kilometers.
As the US broadcaster CNN reports, Japan could also serve the US as a potential ammunition manufacturer. Among other things, Patriot PAC3 missile defense systems could be manufactured there for delivery to Ukraine. Japan already supplied the Philippines with air defense radars last year. Negotiations are also currently underway on a reciprocal agreement that would make it easier for Japanese troops to train in the Philippines.
A look at the treaty web between the US, Japan and the Philippines shows just how quickly a conflict over Taiwan could escalate. The Taiwan Relations Act obliges Washington to provide weapons for the island’s defense. And US President Biden has repeatedly made clear that he would also deploy US military forces in the event of a Chinese invasion.
The Philippines and Japan each have their own defense agreement with the United States, which gives the US military permanent bases in Japan and base rights in the Philippines.
The USA and China are engaged in an ever-fiercer battle for influence in Southeast Asia. However, the region refuses to choose between the bickering superpowers. Instead, it tries to find a way to benefit from both sides.
This balance is reflected in diplomatic relations: For example, the newly elected future Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto first traveled to Beijing in April and then directly to US ally Japan. It is also reflected in the people’s stance.
In one of the most important surveys in the ASEAN group of nations, the “State of Southeast Asia 2024” conducted by the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, around 2,000 respondents favored China over the US as a partner by a narrow margin for the first time. 50.5 percent of respondents chose the People’s Republic when asked which superpower they would prefer as a partner if they had to choose between the two.
This is a significant change compared to 2023 when over 60 percent still preferred the US. However, there are clear regional differences today: While the vast majority in Vietnam and the Philippines favored the USA, China was far ahead in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Just over half of respondents also expect relations with China to improve in the future. This has also shifted: In 2023, it was still below 40 percent. This trend may seem surprising from a Western perspective, given the growing tensions in the South China Sea, for example. Especially as the US and the EU generally expect relations with Beijing to worsen.
That is precisely why such surveys are important. They help to understand the prevailing mood in a region that the West is courting so vehemently in its Indo-Pacific strategies – and this mood is ambivalent towards both China and the US, as the recently presented survey shows.
As the largest trading partner and dominant regional power in Southeast Asia, the People’s Republic plays a role in almost everything and, therefore, has to be included by governments in all decisions relevant to foreign policy.
This realization is reflected in the study. Most respondents (59.3 percent) consider China the most economically influential country in the region; 43.9 percent see China as the greatest political and strategic power in the region. Both figures clearly beat those of the US. Only one in ten see the US in the lead in economic terms – but one in three in political and strategic matters. This, in turn, shows that the people of the ASEAN states perceive the USA primarily as a political player and less as an economic partner.
The researchers believe that one reason for this is the disappointment over the weak economic commitment of the US in Southeast Asia. The fact that Washington has not drafted any plans for actual economic cooperation with the region seems to backfire.
Only around two-fifths of respondents expressed positive expectations regarding the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) program, which US President Joe Biden introduced in May 2022 as an offer for regional partners, compared to just over 45 percent last year.
The IPEF is supposed to promote resilience, sustainability, fairness and competitiveness in the 13 partner countries, including seven ASEAN countries, but does not offer them preferential US market access. The ASEAN countries Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar were also excluded.
This is probably why around 45 percent of IPEF critics in the survey agreed with the statement that IPEF “will not offer greater market access for my country but impose adjustments and compliance costs.” Just under a third of critics believe that IPEF will exacerbate the trade conflict between China and the US, with consequences for their region.
Conversely, the economic integration of the ASEAN states with China continues to grow, for example, through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade zone, also launched in 2022. In addition to China and ASEAN, RCEP also includes Australia, Japan, and South Korea – but not the US.
What’s more, people are clearly most concerned about their material security: fear of recession and unemployment tops the list of concerns in the survey, ahead of the climate crisis and growing economic tensions between the superpowers.
The responses on Beijing’s influence in the region demonstrate that close economic cooperation with China does not rule out skepticism towards the People’s Republic. Over two-thirds of respondents expressed concern about China’s growing economic influence. Almost three-quarters expressed unease about China’s growing political and strategic influence. However, just under 60 percent are also concerned about the US’s growing political and strategic role. A slightly equal proportion welcomed the growing weight of ASEAN in the region.
One in two also expressed suspicion toward China. Around 45 percent even fear that China could use its military and economic power to threaten their countries’ sovereignty and interests.
It is fitting that approval of ASEAN’s cooperation with the quad security alliance of the USA, India, Australia, and Japan, which is clearly aligned against China, has increased significantly: Two-fifths now consider the cooperation to be beneficial, compared to 31 percent last year.
The Gaza war is people’s biggest foreign policy concern, followed by China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea. Unsurprisingly, “China’s strong-arm tactics in the South China Sea” is the biggest concern of respondents in Vietnam (over 70 percent) and the Philippines (over 90 percent): both countries regularly clash with China in disputed waters.
Almost two-fifths of respondents in the survey expressed concern about military tensions in Asian hotspots such as North Korea or the Taiwan Strait. A quarter fear that their country would be forced to choose between the USA and China in the event of a military conflict over Taiwan. And that is precisely what people do not want. 46.8 percent of respondents agreed with the statement: “ASEAN should enhance its resilience and unity to fend off pressure from the two major powers.”
Around 30 percent are in favor of continuing to ally neither with China nor with the USA. Only eight percent believe it is necessary to choose between the two powers. While 36 percent want to remain neutral in the event of a war over Taiwan, only small minorities support sanctions against China or direct support for one of the two sides.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy entirely focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
Rapeseed as a tourist attraction: Xinghua, located in the coastal province of Jiangsu, has built a special site crisscrossed by small canals, complete with pavilions and traditionally designed boats. From the air, the site looks almost like yellow Chinese characters surrounded by water. In April, rapeseed blossoms all over southern China.
