The IAA Transportation, one of the most important platforms for logistics, commercial vehicles and the transport sector, is a showcase for innovations and technological advances in the mobility industry. This year, the innovation boost is clearly coming from China, writes Julia Fiedler, who took a look around for you on-site in Hanover.
One Chinese newcomer in particular stole the show from the Western heavyweights. There are already numerous pre-orders from Europe and the USA for the Windrose-branded electric truck, which shows: Confidence in Chinese technologies is there – and growing. What used to be labeled as a cheap copy is now seen as serious competition.
For a long time, Beijing did not dare to raise the retirement age – even though no other major industrialized country sends its citizens into retirement as early as the People’s Republic. The government feared the resentment of the population. As a kind of core communist promise to the working class, early retirement was untouchable for a long time.
This month, the state has announced a reform after all. However, it is rather timid. It is to be implemented in stages and only by 2039. More pressing problems remain largely untouched.
At the IAA Transportation 2024, neither a German model nor a Chinese supplier caused a crowd to form. Instead, a crowd gathered mainly around Tesla’s Semi e-truck. The fun factor attracted the public. Visitors were not only able to get in, but also take a few laps as a passenger.
But beware, danger of confusion. The Semi faced competition from a newcomer that some might have confused with the Tesla model. The Chinese manufacturer Windrose presented a truck with a very similar exterior and was unable to prevent rumors that it may have copied a bit from the Tesla.
This did nothing to diminish the pride of the Chinese – especially in the design of the driver’s cab. High-tech wherever you look. There are no mirrors, but plenty of screens. The driver’s seat is enthroned in the middle. Like Captain Kirk’s seat on the bridge in the Starship Enterprise and – coincidence or not – just like Tesla’s.
A range of 670 kilometers, 1,400 hp and a 729 kWh battery – the truck is already being used by customers in China, and the two-year-old company Windrose has received thousands of advance orders, including deposits, in the USA and Europe. The 35-year-old founder Wen Han designed Windrose to be lean: The truck is built in Belgium and all parts are sourced from China. Is this the future of the commercial vehicle industry?
But perhaps the truck of the future will also resemble a flattened beluga whale. The snow-white Heavy Duty Skateboard Chassis from Superpanther does not have a driver’s cab, even if this could be installed as an option. For the company from Yangzhou, Jiangsu, it is clearly no longer part of the basic truck variant. One day, freight transportation will be completely autonomous and will not require a driver.
The skateboard chassis is to become the basis for many trucks; Superpanther calls it the “enabler”. The strategy behind it: To piggyback the commercial vehicle industry on its way into the future by providing the intelligent, networked and, of course, electric substructure. Next to the gigantic skateboard at the Superpanther stand are two heavy-duty trucks. Their front is emblazoned with a round logo: Steyr. The Austrian company Steyr Automotive, which can look back on more than 100 years of history, has entered into a partnership with Superpanther. The first model, the eTopas600, will be presented at the IAA Transportation 2024 in Hanover. DHL also signed a memorandum of understanding with Superpanther at the company’s press conference. Possibly a trend.
The German Association of the Automotive Industry, organizer of the IAA Transportation 2024, is proud of the number of exhibitors, which has increased by around 20 percent compared to the last edition in 2022. China’s presence at the trade fair has also grown. The 471 German exhibitors at the trade fair are matched by 464 Chinese stands – even though many of them measure just a few square meters and sell screws, seat covers made of wooden beads or dampers.
In addition to these suppliers and many start-ups, traditional Chinese companies are also represented. Heavyweights whose sales figures can easily put Daimler, Volvo, MAN and the like in the shade, as China is the largest market for commercial vehicles in the world. 60 percent of this market is shared by the three state-owned companies Dongfeng Motor Corporation, the oldest Chinese truck manufacturer FAW-Jiefang and Sinotruk, which was founded in 1956.
If you look at the sales figures as a whole, i.e. not just alternative drive systems, Sinotruk is the leader in heavy-duty trucks. The company sold 226,999 of these in 2023, of which more than 130,000 were exported, for example to Africa or Southeast Asia. Dongfeng and FAW-Jiefang are also selling well. But now it’s time for electrification. China’s CO2 emissions are set to fall after 2030. Commercial vehicles account for a huge proportion of emissions, with eleven percent of vehicles in China currently running on alternative drive systems, including hydrogen. This figure is set to rise sharply in the coming years.
Sinotruk has set up a Guzheng ensemble at its huge trade fair stand and is tasting tea. Logisticians in checked shirts marvel at the Chinese women in the Qipao, but also have their eyes on the huge SITRAK HD EV with a range of 450 kilometers thanks to a 600 kWh battery, three electric motors that deliver up to 825 kW and a charging speed of 20 minutes from 20 to 80 percent.
However, Sinotruk does not yet want to reveal prices for the electric truck, nor a timetable for market entry in Europe. The Chinese manufacturers’ electric trucks are not yet registered, but they are already planning to present themselves here. As with passenger cars, China’s manufacturers also want to fill the gap that is opening up for electric vehicles in the commercial vehicle sector. But they still have a long way to go.
An important question: Will they meet interested customers? Jochen Quick, President of the Federal Association for Own Logistics & Shippers, has noticed that the industry is open to Chinese manufacturers. “Theoretically, a Chinese truck is definitely an option for companies, but the driver is also increasingly playing a role in the selection process. Of course, image also plays a role for them. From what I saw at the trade fair, however, the Chinese manufacturers can score points with comfort and equipment.”
However, Quick also points out a critical point that is currently also causing Chinese EV manufacturers difficulties with acceptance. “One important point needs to be resolved in any case: Customers are primarily concerned with reliability and this also includes the issue of service.” It is important to build trust.
German manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz can score points with this: “Trucks You Can Trust” is written on a wall at the entrance to the stand where the manufacturer is presenting its first electric heavy-duty truck, the eActros 600. The designated head of Daimler Truck, Karin Radström, tells Reuters that she is relaxed about the competition from China: “As long as we focus on doing our job well, we are confident that we will also be able to overcome this competition.”
But Jochen Quick sees the mood at the trade fair differently. “The Chinese manufacturers have really shaken up the IAA this year. The quality of their products has improved significantly and they have caught up technically. The established European manufacturers are facing tough competition. From the customer’s point of view, however, this is definitely positive.”
VDA President Hildegard Müller believes that German companies are well positioned. “We welcome the competition – as well as potential investments from China in Germany. At the same time, we naturally take competition seriously and demand rules-based trade, including from the Chinese. What is important now is that Europe must make location and competitiveness a top priority, set the right framework conditions and avoid intra-European competition.”
Beijing’s pension reform comes into force on Jan. 1. From the beginning of the year, the retirement age will be gradually raised over a period of 15 years until 2039. Following a decision by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, men will stop working at the age of 63 instead of 60. Female office staff will retire at 58 instead of 55, and female workers at 55. The increase will take place in dozens of small steps in order to make the reform socially acceptable.
The decision is intended to “maintain the momentum and vitality of economic and social development”, said Wang Xiaoping, China’s Minister for Human Resources and Social Security. Background: China is aging rapidly. By 2035, one in three Chinese will be over 60 years old and one in four over 65 – with life expectancy already rising to 78 years.
The number of people of working age is falling by an average of more than three million people per year. This is an immense challenge for the labor market as well as for the social, health and pension systems. According to the National Academy of Sciences, pension funds could run aground as early as 2035. According to Reuters, public pension spending in China already amounts to more than five percent of gross domestic product. Local governments, which are responsible for managing pensions, have already made cuts to payouts in recent years, which has even led to minor protests in some cases.
China has the lowest retirement age among the major economies. For fear of popular discontent, Beijing had long avoided changing this. As recently as 2018, 92 percent were against it. An early, generous pension after a hard-working life was long celebrated in China as a communist achievement.
There is no public consultation period during which citizens and experts are allowed to comment on draft legislation. Instead, the state media are swearing the population to make sacrifices. After the measure was passed on Friday, they published tables and an online calculator to help people calculate their retirement age.
Nevertheless, Friday’s decision was controversially discussed online. A corresponding hashtag on Weibo already had 560 million views on Friday evening. “Older people can’t retire and younger people can’t find work”, was one popular comment. Other comments were censored – for example, those that ironically linked Xi Jinping’s term suspension to the raising of the retirement age.
Young people in particular are already groaning under workload and competitive pressure. Quite a few fear that this could be just the beginning and that the retirement age will continue to rise. Others fear that they will find it even harder to get jobs if the old people are left in their positions. Youth unemployment stood at 17.1 percent in July. The fact that young people now have to pay into the pension fund for 20 years instead of 15 before they are entitled to a basic monthly pension also caused grumbling.
But there are also those who support the reform and explain that the increase is still relatively moderate. Many had expected five years instead of three for most employees. The plan also includes a flexible option to retire up to three years earlier, provided you have fulfilled the 20-year contribution requirement. The government also promised to improve the system for paid annual leave, combat age discrimination and allow workers in physically demanding jobs to retire earlier in the future. All this shows how sensitively Beijing has to deal with the controversial issue.
The minimum age of 58 for employed women is also comparatively young. However, the state has other plans for its workforce, even in retirement. At best, they should help look after their grandchildren. A lack of full-time childcare is one of several reasons for the declining birth rate in China.
In reality, however, there are still many problems to be solved. For example, it is currently extremely difficult for women over 40 to change jobs or get a new job after taking time out. Individual pension plans are not popular among the population. Public opinion is that old-age provision is the responsibility of the state. However, China’s pension system, which consists of a basic state pension, company pensions and individual pension plans, continues to disadvantage the rural population and people from less developed provinces in particular.
In 2018, the central government set up a special fund to shift pension money from wealthier coastal provinces such as Guangdong to areas such as Heilongjiang and Liaoning. In addition, the digital economy has led to so-called gig working – casual work with an unclear employment status – becoming the norm in many places. This also has an impact on employees’ pensions.
There is therefore no question that reforms are necessary. However, it is doubtful whether the planned increase in the retirement age is comprehensive enough and will come quickly enough to revitalize economic and social development.
Volkswagen and its Chinese partner SAIC are considering closing a plant in the People’s Republic due to dwindling demand for vehicles with combustion engines. A person familiar with the matter told the Reuters news agency on Wednesday that the production of Passat models would be relocated from Nanjing to a nearby factory. Some of the employees from Nanjing would also be transferred to the other plant, the insider added.
However, there is no timetable yet. It is also unclear whether the factory in Nanjing will be closed or sold. Irrespective of this, the two carmakers are thinking about boosting sales of the Skoda brand again. Skoda currently only accounts for one percent of the sales of the SAIC-VW joint venture. In 2017, the share was still 17 percent.
A plant in Ningbo in Zhejiang province, where several Skoda models are made, has been idle for months and is also being considered for closure. “All SAIC-Volkswagen factories are operating normally, according to market demands and our forecasts”, VW China responded to questions from Bloomberg News in an email. As the focus shifts to smart electric vehicles, “we are also transforming vehicle production and component plants step by step”.
The unprecedented retreat from Volkswagen’s biggest market is caused by a slump in consumer numbers and a rapid shift towards electric vehicles. Production at VW’s 39 Chinese plants last year was more than a quarter below its pre-pandemic peak. The share of operating profits from Chinese operations fell by 20 percent to €2.62 billion in 2023, down by around half compared to the 2015 peak.
Volkswagen was the most successful vehicle manufacturer in China for many years. However, due to growing domestic and foreign competition, its market share has recently declined. The Wolfsburg-based company is therefore working with partners such as SAIC and Xpeng on new models to regain lost ground. Last year, SAIC-VW sold 1.2 million vehicles, 43 percent fewer than in 2017. A few days ago, Volkswagen publicly declared for the first time that it could no longer rule out layoffs in Germany. rtr/ari
The 11th Xiangshan Forum took place in Beijing from Sept. 12-14. After the Munich Security Conference, it is one of the largest global security conferences. The main difference lies not only in the objectives, but also in the international perception. As the host, China concentrates on presenting its broadly defined Global Security Initiative (GSI), while countries from the Global South in particular make their voices heard. High-ranking European defense politicians stayed away from the forum. They do not want to send out the wrong signals by upgrading Beijing’s initiative and thus the influence policy of its designated strategic rival.
However, the absence of Western states and the passage of German ships through the Taiwan Strait sent different signals than intended. The West is perceived as wanting to enforce international security from above and by military means; dialog at eye level is missed. This perception is used by actors such as Russia and Iran, both rhetorical free riders of the interests of the global South, to pursue their own disruptive strategies, which are costly for all involved.
This inadvertently places the West in a geopolitical arena that is detrimental to the security and development of the Global South. Nevertheless, the Western approach must be given credit for the fact that, in times of change and security policy uncertainty, it relies on a minimum consensus based on the rules-based international order, away from geostrategic narratives. This seeks to regulate conflicts through international legal norms and multilateral formats, among other things. In principle, this approach would hardly meet with any opposition.
However, the way in which this minimal consensus is enforced diminishes its appeal. New military alliances and the emphasis on geopolitical rivalries give the impression that the West is more interested in maintaining old power structures than in setting common rules. The concerns of the Global South remain unheard, while the latter finds itself caught between the fronts in a hegemonic competition in which Russia and Iran play a central role in direct and indirect military conflicts.
Representatives of the Global South, such as the defense ministers of the Republic of Congo and South Africa, outlined an alternative multipolarity at the forum. This is based on diverse interests and perspectives and aims to achieve a just peace without competing power blocs. In their view, security can only be achieved together and not by enforcing a security policy framework.
Although China is part of the problem, it is taking a dual approach. On the one hand, it asserts its core interests as a major power uncompromisingly and regardless of the costs; on the other hand, it listens to the concerns of the Global South, communicates on an equal footing and promotes almost unconditional development cooperation. The format of this year’s Xiangshan Forum reflected this strategy.
China did not present any blueprints for security architectures or rules at the forum. In sessions that were more or less poorly moderated, there was a lack of traditional commitments or concrete security policy measures such as transparency or arms control, including the establishment of corresponding mechanisms. Instead, the focus was on existing conflicts in a multipolar world and their management through cooperation, diplomacy and reconciliation of interests. This particularly appealed to the Global South, which does not want to take sides in the global dispute over order or become a source of friction.
The West, on the other hand, faces several dilemmas. In the face of direct military conflicts and the collapse of security policy orders, it is difficult to enforce minimum standards of order without the use of military means. This makes the West vulnerable to the accusation that it is part of the problem: The geopolitical power struggles for new global and regional structures. Russia and Iran use this to portray Western actions as double standards – as they did at the Xiangshan Forum.
A way out requires new approaches. Dialogue with the Global South and China must be intensified, based on equality and a willingness to examine alternative ideas for shaping a multipolar order. The problems of the countries of the South must be taken seriously. Norms-based minimum standards, implemented via regional institutions or the UN, meet with an open ear, but are not the only solution.
The multitude of existing conflicts, especially those that are fought as proxies in the struggle for influence in the multipolar world, require sustainable solutions. A presence at forums such as the Xiangshan Forum would be a first step in the right direction. It is the place to position oneself in favor of a just security order in the spirit of the multipolar world that underlies the turning point in history, and not to leave the field to others.
Bernt Berger is an analyst for Asian foreign and security policy, regional conflicts, disarmament on the Korean peninsula and Chinese development, foreign and domestic policy at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) in Bonn. Previously, he worked as Country Director of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in the Myanmar country office in Yangon and as Head of the Asia Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin.
As every year, China marked the anniversary of the so-called Mukden incident with patriotic pomp on Sept. 18. Ninety-three years ago, Japanese officers carried out an explosive attack on the South Manchurian Railway in north-eastern China. The incident, for which the Chinese were held responsible at the time, is regarded as the prelude to the Second Sino-Japanese War and thus the Second World War in Asia. In Shenyang in Liaoning province, a brutalist history museum commemorates the historic event.
The IAA Transportation, one of the most important platforms for logistics, commercial vehicles and the transport sector, is a showcase for innovations and technological advances in the mobility industry. This year, the innovation boost is clearly coming from China, writes Julia Fiedler, who took a look around for you on-site in Hanover.
One Chinese newcomer in particular stole the show from the Western heavyweights. There are already numerous pre-orders from Europe and the USA for the Windrose-branded electric truck, which shows: Confidence in Chinese technologies is there – and growing. What used to be labeled as a cheap copy is now seen as serious competition.
For a long time, Beijing did not dare to raise the retirement age – even though no other major industrialized country sends its citizens into retirement as early as the People’s Republic. The government feared the resentment of the population. As a kind of core communist promise to the working class, early retirement was untouchable for a long time.
This month, the state has announced a reform after all. However, it is rather timid. It is to be implemented in stages and only by 2039. More pressing problems remain largely untouched.
At the IAA Transportation 2024, neither a German model nor a Chinese supplier caused a crowd to form. Instead, a crowd gathered mainly around Tesla’s Semi e-truck. The fun factor attracted the public. Visitors were not only able to get in, but also take a few laps as a passenger.
But beware, danger of confusion. The Semi faced competition from a newcomer that some might have confused with the Tesla model. The Chinese manufacturer Windrose presented a truck with a very similar exterior and was unable to prevent rumors that it may have copied a bit from the Tesla.
This did nothing to diminish the pride of the Chinese – especially in the design of the driver’s cab. High-tech wherever you look. There are no mirrors, but plenty of screens. The driver’s seat is enthroned in the middle. Like Captain Kirk’s seat on the bridge in the Starship Enterprise and – coincidence or not – just like Tesla’s.
A range of 670 kilometers, 1,400 hp and a 729 kWh battery – the truck is already being used by customers in China, and the two-year-old company Windrose has received thousands of advance orders, including deposits, in the USA and Europe. The 35-year-old founder Wen Han designed Windrose to be lean: The truck is built in Belgium and all parts are sourced from China. Is this the future of the commercial vehicle industry?
But perhaps the truck of the future will also resemble a flattened beluga whale. The snow-white Heavy Duty Skateboard Chassis from Superpanther does not have a driver’s cab, even if this could be installed as an option. For the company from Yangzhou, Jiangsu, it is clearly no longer part of the basic truck variant. One day, freight transportation will be completely autonomous and will not require a driver.
The skateboard chassis is to become the basis for many trucks; Superpanther calls it the “enabler”. The strategy behind it: To piggyback the commercial vehicle industry on its way into the future by providing the intelligent, networked and, of course, electric substructure. Next to the gigantic skateboard at the Superpanther stand are two heavy-duty trucks. Their front is emblazoned with a round logo: Steyr. The Austrian company Steyr Automotive, which can look back on more than 100 years of history, has entered into a partnership with Superpanther. The first model, the eTopas600, will be presented at the IAA Transportation 2024 in Hanover. DHL also signed a memorandum of understanding with Superpanther at the company’s press conference. Possibly a trend.
The German Association of the Automotive Industry, organizer of the IAA Transportation 2024, is proud of the number of exhibitors, which has increased by around 20 percent compared to the last edition in 2022. China’s presence at the trade fair has also grown. The 471 German exhibitors at the trade fair are matched by 464 Chinese stands – even though many of them measure just a few square meters and sell screws, seat covers made of wooden beads or dampers.
In addition to these suppliers and many start-ups, traditional Chinese companies are also represented. Heavyweights whose sales figures can easily put Daimler, Volvo, MAN and the like in the shade, as China is the largest market for commercial vehicles in the world. 60 percent of this market is shared by the three state-owned companies Dongfeng Motor Corporation, the oldest Chinese truck manufacturer FAW-Jiefang and Sinotruk, which was founded in 1956.
If you look at the sales figures as a whole, i.e. not just alternative drive systems, Sinotruk is the leader in heavy-duty trucks. The company sold 226,999 of these in 2023, of which more than 130,000 were exported, for example to Africa or Southeast Asia. Dongfeng and FAW-Jiefang are also selling well. But now it’s time for electrification. China’s CO2 emissions are set to fall after 2030. Commercial vehicles account for a huge proportion of emissions, with eleven percent of vehicles in China currently running on alternative drive systems, including hydrogen. This figure is set to rise sharply in the coming years.
Sinotruk has set up a Guzheng ensemble at its huge trade fair stand and is tasting tea. Logisticians in checked shirts marvel at the Chinese women in the Qipao, but also have their eyes on the huge SITRAK HD EV with a range of 450 kilometers thanks to a 600 kWh battery, three electric motors that deliver up to 825 kW and a charging speed of 20 minutes from 20 to 80 percent.
However, Sinotruk does not yet want to reveal prices for the electric truck, nor a timetable for market entry in Europe. The Chinese manufacturers’ electric trucks are not yet registered, but they are already planning to present themselves here. As with passenger cars, China’s manufacturers also want to fill the gap that is opening up for electric vehicles in the commercial vehicle sector. But they still have a long way to go.
An important question: Will they meet interested customers? Jochen Quick, President of the Federal Association for Own Logistics & Shippers, has noticed that the industry is open to Chinese manufacturers. “Theoretically, a Chinese truck is definitely an option for companies, but the driver is also increasingly playing a role in the selection process. Of course, image also plays a role for them. From what I saw at the trade fair, however, the Chinese manufacturers can score points with comfort and equipment.”
However, Quick also points out a critical point that is currently also causing Chinese EV manufacturers difficulties with acceptance. “One important point needs to be resolved in any case: Customers are primarily concerned with reliability and this also includes the issue of service.” It is important to build trust.
German manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz can score points with this: “Trucks You Can Trust” is written on a wall at the entrance to the stand where the manufacturer is presenting its first electric heavy-duty truck, the eActros 600. The designated head of Daimler Truck, Karin Radström, tells Reuters that she is relaxed about the competition from China: “As long as we focus on doing our job well, we are confident that we will also be able to overcome this competition.”
But Jochen Quick sees the mood at the trade fair differently. “The Chinese manufacturers have really shaken up the IAA this year. The quality of their products has improved significantly and they have caught up technically. The established European manufacturers are facing tough competition. From the customer’s point of view, however, this is definitely positive.”
VDA President Hildegard Müller believes that German companies are well positioned. “We welcome the competition – as well as potential investments from China in Germany. At the same time, we naturally take competition seriously and demand rules-based trade, including from the Chinese. What is important now is that Europe must make location and competitiveness a top priority, set the right framework conditions and avoid intra-European competition.”
Beijing’s pension reform comes into force on Jan. 1. From the beginning of the year, the retirement age will be gradually raised over a period of 15 years until 2039. Following a decision by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, men will stop working at the age of 63 instead of 60. Female office staff will retire at 58 instead of 55, and female workers at 55. The increase will take place in dozens of small steps in order to make the reform socially acceptable.
The decision is intended to “maintain the momentum and vitality of economic and social development”, said Wang Xiaoping, China’s Minister for Human Resources and Social Security. Background: China is aging rapidly. By 2035, one in three Chinese will be over 60 years old and one in four over 65 – with life expectancy already rising to 78 years.
The number of people of working age is falling by an average of more than three million people per year. This is an immense challenge for the labor market as well as for the social, health and pension systems. According to the National Academy of Sciences, pension funds could run aground as early as 2035. According to Reuters, public pension spending in China already amounts to more than five percent of gross domestic product. Local governments, which are responsible for managing pensions, have already made cuts to payouts in recent years, which has even led to minor protests in some cases.
China has the lowest retirement age among the major economies. For fear of popular discontent, Beijing had long avoided changing this. As recently as 2018, 92 percent were against it. An early, generous pension after a hard-working life was long celebrated in China as a communist achievement.
There is no public consultation period during which citizens and experts are allowed to comment on draft legislation. Instead, the state media are swearing the population to make sacrifices. After the measure was passed on Friday, they published tables and an online calculator to help people calculate their retirement age.
Nevertheless, Friday’s decision was controversially discussed online. A corresponding hashtag on Weibo already had 560 million views on Friday evening. “Older people can’t retire and younger people can’t find work”, was one popular comment. Other comments were censored – for example, those that ironically linked Xi Jinping’s term suspension to the raising of the retirement age.
Young people in particular are already groaning under workload and competitive pressure. Quite a few fear that this could be just the beginning and that the retirement age will continue to rise. Others fear that they will find it even harder to get jobs if the old people are left in their positions. Youth unemployment stood at 17.1 percent in July. The fact that young people now have to pay into the pension fund for 20 years instead of 15 before they are entitled to a basic monthly pension also caused grumbling.
But there are also those who support the reform and explain that the increase is still relatively moderate. Many had expected five years instead of three for most employees. The plan also includes a flexible option to retire up to three years earlier, provided you have fulfilled the 20-year contribution requirement. The government also promised to improve the system for paid annual leave, combat age discrimination and allow workers in physically demanding jobs to retire earlier in the future. All this shows how sensitively Beijing has to deal with the controversial issue.
The minimum age of 58 for employed women is also comparatively young. However, the state has other plans for its workforce, even in retirement. At best, they should help look after their grandchildren. A lack of full-time childcare is one of several reasons for the declining birth rate in China.
In reality, however, there are still many problems to be solved. For example, it is currently extremely difficult for women over 40 to change jobs or get a new job after taking time out. Individual pension plans are not popular among the population. Public opinion is that old-age provision is the responsibility of the state. However, China’s pension system, which consists of a basic state pension, company pensions and individual pension plans, continues to disadvantage the rural population and people from less developed provinces in particular.
In 2018, the central government set up a special fund to shift pension money from wealthier coastal provinces such as Guangdong to areas such as Heilongjiang and Liaoning. In addition, the digital economy has led to so-called gig working – casual work with an unclear employment status – becoming the norm in many places. This also has an impact on employees’ pensions.
There is therefore no question that reforms are necessary. However, it is doubtful whether the planned increase in the retirement age is comprehensive enough and will come quickly enough to revitalize economic and social development.
Volkswagen and its Chinese partner SAIC are considering closing a plant in the People’s Republic due to dwindling demand for vehicles with combustion engines. A person familiar with the matter told the Reuters news agency on Wednesday that the production of Passat models would be relocated from Nanjing to a nearby factory. Some of the employees from Nanjing would also be transferred to the other plant, the insider added.
However, there is no timetable yet. It is also unclear whether the factory in Nanjing will be closed or sold. Irrespective of this, the two carmakers are thinking about boosting sales of the Skoda brand again. Skoda currently only accounts for one percent of the sales of the SAIC-VW joint venture. In 2017, the share was still 17 percent.
A plant in Ningbo in Zhejiang province, where several Skoda models are made, has been idle for months and is also being considered for closure. “All SAIC-Volkswagen factories are operating normally, according to market demands and our forecasts”, VW China responded to questions from Bloomberg News in an email. As the focus shifts to smart electric vehicles, “we are also transforming vehicle production and component plants step by step”.
The unprecedented retreat from Volkswagen’s biggest market is caused by a slump in consumer numbers and a rapid shift towards electric vehicles. Production at VW’s 39 Chinese plants last year was more than a quarter below its pre-pandemic peak. The share of operating profits from Chinese operations fell by 20 percent to €2.62 billion in 2023, down by around half compared to the 2015 peak.
Volkswagen was the most successful vehicle manufacturer in China for many years. However, due to growing domestic and foreign competition, its market share has recently declined. The Wolfsburg-based company is therefore working with partners such as SAIC and Xpeng on new models to regain lost ground. Last year, SAIC-VW sold 1.2 million vehicles, 43 percent fewer than in 2017. A few days ago, Volkswagen publicly declared for the first time that it could no longer rule out layoffs in Germany. rtr/ari
The 11th Xiangshan Forum took place in Beijing from Sept. 12-14. After the Munich Security Conference, it is one of the largest global security conferences. The main difference lies not only in the objectives, but also in the international perception. As the host, China concentrates on presenting its broadly defined Global Security Initiative (GSI), while countries from the Global South in particular make their voices heard. High-ranking European defense politicians stayed away from the forum. They do not want to send out the wrong signals by upgrading Beijing’s initiative and thus the influence policy of its designated strategic rival.
However, the absence of Western states and the passage of German ships through the Taiwan Strait sent different signals than intended. The West is perceived as wanting to enforce international security from above and by military means; dialog at eye level is missed. This perception is used by actors such as Russia and Iran, both rhetorical free riders of the interests of the global South, to pursue their own disruptive strategies, which are costly for all involved.
This inadvertently places the West in a geopolitical arena that is detrimental to the security and development of the Global South. Nevertheless, the Western approach must be given credit for the fact that, in times of change and security policy uncertainty, it relies on a minimum consensus based on the rules-based international order, away from geostrategic narratives. This seeks to regulate conflicts through international legal norms and multilateral formats, among other things. In principle, this approach would hardly meet with any opposition.
However, the way in which this minimal consensus is enforced diminishes its appeal. New military alliances and the emphasis on geopolitical rivalries give the impression that the West is more interested in maintaining old power structures than in setting common rules. The concerns of the Global South remain unheard, while the latter finds itself caught between the fronts in a hegemonic competition in which Russia and Iran play a central role in direct and indirect military conflicts.
Representatives of the Global South, such as the defense ministers of the Republic of Congo and South Africa, outlined an alternative multipolarity at the forum. This is based on diverse interests and perspectives and aims to achieve a just peace without competing power blocs. In their view, security can only be achieved together and not by enforcing a security policy framework.
Although China is part of the problem, it is taking a dual approach. On the one hand, it asserts its core interests as a major power uncompromisingly and regardless of the costs; on the other hand, it listens to the concerns of the Global South, communicates on an equal footing and promotes almost unconditional development cooperation. The format of this year’s Xiangshan Forum reflected this strategy.
China did not present any blueprints for security architectures or rules at the forum. In sessions that were more or less poorly moderated, there was a lack of traditional commitments or concrete security policy measures such as transparency or arms control, including the establishment of corresponding mechanisms. Instead, the focus was on existing conflicts in a multipolar world and their management through cooperation, diplomacy and reconciliation of interests. This particularly appealed to the Global South, which does not want to take sides in the global dispute over order or become a source of friction.
The West, on the other hand, faces several dilemmas. In the face of direct military conflicts and the collapse of security policy orders, it is difficult to enforce minimum standards of order without the use of military means. This makes the West vulnerable to the accusation that it is part of the problem: The geopolitical power struggles for new global and regional structures. Russia and Iran use this to portray Western actions as double standards – as they did at the Xiangshan Forum.
A way out requires new approaches. Dialogue with the Global South and China must be intensified, based on equality and a willingness to examine alternative ideas for shaping a multipolar order. The problems of the countries of the South must be taken seriously. Norms-based minimum standards, implemented via regional institutions or the UN, meet with an open ear, but are not the only solution.
The multitude of existing conflicts, especially those that are fought as proxies in the struggle for influence in the multipolar world, require sustainable solutions. A presence at forums such as the Xiangshan Forum would be a first step in the right direction. It is the place to position oneself in favor of a just security order in the spirit of the multipolar world that underlies the turning point in history, and not to leave the field to others.
Bernt Berger is an analyst for Asian foreign and security policy, regional conflicts, disarmament on the Korean peninsula and Chinese development, foreign and domestic policy at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) in Bonn. Previously, he worked as Country Director of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in the Myanmar country office in Yangon and as Head of the Asia Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin.
As every year, China marked the anniversary of the so-called Mukden incident with patriotic pomp on Sept. 18. Ninety-three years ago, Japanese officers carried out an explosive attack on the South Manchurian Railway in north-eastern China. The incident, for which the Chinese were held responsible at the time, is regarded as the prelude to the Second Sino-Japanese War and thus the Second World War in Asia. In Shenyang in Liaoning province, a brutalist history museum commemorates the historic event.
