A Chinese peace plan for Ukraine – that sounds like great news. After all, China has a credible reputation both vis-à-vis its ally Russia and its long-time trading partner Ukraine. If anyone can negotiate a ceasefire, it is China.
Regrettably, the document presented today does not live up to these expectations. In this China.Table special edition, Michael Radunski analyses why the document is so vague, what the individual formulations mean – and why there is still some hope.
For those hoping for a savior from Beijing, it is better to come to terms with the reality of the situation. It is a European conflict, not an Asian one. And for most countries in the world, their own interests are not necessarily aligned with those of Ukraine. In order to deal with an aggressive Russia, Europe must re-learn the ability to deal with conflict. Other powers represent their own agenda, not Europe’s.
China has presented its much-anticipated proposal for ending the Ukraine war. On Friday morning, the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing published China’s position on the political solution to the Ukraine crisis 关于政治解决乌克兰危机的中国立场. The paper covers a total of 12 points.
In it, Beijing urges resuming direct dialogue as soon as possible because “dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis”.
The main points are:
As promising as these points may sound at first glance, the Chinese paper is a letdown. The individual points are kept very vague. Concrete proposals on how the individual goals are to be achieved are completely absent. The biggest obstacle to a ceasefire is obvious to everyone – and yet it is simply skipped: How to deal with the Russian-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. Instead, China uses the few lines to continue to indirectly fuel hostility against the USA and the West.
Let us take a closer look at the paper. It is just 1,200 characters long and is divided into twelve points.
Under point 1, Beijing calls for the effective preservation of the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries. “All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community.” This point has to be clearly interpreted in favor of Ukraine and its original borders.
And the facts leave no doubt that Russia is the one that is violating this point. Exactly one year ago, Vladimir Putin invaded the much smaller Ukraine. The problem: China still does not condemn this crime to this day.
In point 2, China calls for an end to the Cold War mentality. “The security of a country should not be pursued at the expense of others. The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs. The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly.”
Here, China’s sympathy for Russia’s position openly reveals itself. With the “expansion of military blocs” 地区安全不能以强化甚至扩张军事集团来保障 China refers to NATO’s eastward expansion. Together with the alleged “legitimate security interests”, these points are effectively Putin’s justification for the war – and China is adopting the aggressor’s argumentation word for word in its peace initiative. This makes it impossible for China to be a credible mediator.
Point 3 calls for an end to hostilities. “Conflict and war benefit no one”, it says. So far, so right. But the next words already suggest where China sees the actual problem: No one should continue fanning flames 不拱火浇油. China has been using this expression to criticize the behavior of the USA and the West for almost a year now.
Points 4 to 9 deal with indisputable demands: Immediate peace talks, an end to the humanitarian crisis, the exchange of prisoners of war, the securing of nuclear facilities, a rejection of the use of nuclear weapons and facilitating Ukrainian wheat exports.
In point 10, China once again fully sides with Russia – and against the West: stopping unilateral sanctions. The last point, which deals with the rebuilding of Ukraine, is also an interesting one. China already seems to have this aspect firmly in mind. Beijing is already positioning itself as an economic partner long before an end to the hostilities is even in sight.
Yurii Poita of the Kyiv-based think tank New Geopolitics Research Network is correspondingly disappointed by Beijing’s advance. “It is unlikely that China’s peace proposals will be realized, as they would lead to a military defeat and Ukraine‘s full surrender, a military victory for Russia and a fundamental change in the security architecture in Europe and the world,” Poita told Table.Media.
Disillusioned by a year of cruel fighting and Beijing’s vague paper from Beijing, Poita demands: “The only way for peace is a military victory for Ukraine and integration into the EU and NATO.”
That is Kyiv’s position. Hardly promising conditions for a ceasefire. And one thing is clear: For now, China’s paper on a political solution does not substantially contribute to ending the war in Ukraine. However, it must also be noted that China is taking a position with this paper and is showing interest in a solution to the conflict. To truly mediate credibly, Xi Jinping must now also establish direct contact with Ukraine.
A Chinese peace plan for Ukraine – that sounds like great news. After all, China has a credible reputation both vis-à-vis its ally Russia and its long-time trading partner Ukraine. If anyone can negotiate a ceasefire, it is China.
Regrettably, the document presented today does not live up to these expectations. In this China.Table special edition, Michael Radunski analyses why the document is so vague, what the individual formulations mean – and why there is still some hope.
For those hoping for a savior from Beijing, it is better to come to terms with the reality of the situation. It is a European conflict, not an Asian one. And for most countries in the world, their own interests are not necessarily aligned with those of Ukraine. In order to deal with an aggressive Russia, Europe must re-learn the ability to deal with conflict. Other powers represent their own agenda, not Europe’s.
China has presented its much-anticipated proposal for ending the Ukraine war. On Friday morning, the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing published China’s position on the political solution to the Ukraine crisis 关于政治解决乌克兰危机的中国立场. The paper covers a total of 12 points.
In it, Beijing urges resuming direct dialogue as soon as possible because “dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis”.
The main points are:
As promising as these points may sound at first glance, the Chinese paper is a letdown. The individual points are kept very vague. Concrete proposals on how the individual goals are to be achieved are completely absent. The biggest obstacle to a ceasefire is obvious to everyone – and yet it is simply skipped: How to deal with the Russian-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine. Instead, China uses the few lines to continue to indirectly fuel hostility against the USA and the West.
Let us take a closer look at the paper. It is just 1,200 characters long and is divided into twelve points.
Under point 1, Beijing calls for the effective preservation of the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries. “All countries, big or small, strong or weak, rich or poor, are equal members of the international community.” This point has to be clearly interpreted in favor of Ukraine and its original borders.
And the facts leave no doubt that Russia is the one that is violating this point. Exactly one year ago, Vladimir Putin invaded the much smaller Ukraine. The problem: China still does not condemn this crime to this day.
In point 2, China calls for an end to the Cold War mentality. “The security of a country should not be pursued at the expense of others. The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs. The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly.”
Here, China’s sympathy for Russia’s position openly reveals itself. With the “expansion of military blocs” 地区安全不能以强化甚至扩张军事集团来保障 China refers to NATO’s eastward expansion. Together with the alleged “legitimate security interests”, these points are effectively Putin’s justification for the war – and China is adopting the aggressor’s argumentation word for word in its peace initiative. This makes it impossible for China to be a credible mediator.
Point 3 calls for an end to hostilities. “Conflict and war benefit no one”, it says. So far, so right. But the next words already suggest where China sees the actual problem: No one should continue fanning flames 不拱火浇油. China has been using this expression to criticize the behavior of the USA and the West for almost a year now.
Points 4 to 9 deal with indisputable demands: Immediate peace talks, an end to the humanitarian crisis, the exchange of prisoners of war, the securing of nuclear facilities, a rejection of the use of nuclear weapons and facilitating Ukrainian wheat exports.
In point 10, China once again fully sides with Russia – and against the West: stopping unilateral sanctions. The last point, which deals with the rebuilding of Ukraine, is also an interesting one. China already seems to have this aspect firmly in mind. Beijing is already positioning itself as an economic partner long before an end to the hostilities is even in sight.
Yurii Poita of the Kyiv-based think tank New Geopolitics Research Network is correspondingly disappointed by Beijing’s advance. “It is unlikely that China’s peace proposals will be realized, as they would lead to a military defeat and Ukraine‘s full surrender, a military victory for Russia and a fundamental change in the security architecture in Europe and the world,” Poita told Table.Media.
Disillusioned by a year of cruel fighting and Beijing’s vague paper from Beijing, Poita demands: “The only way for peace is a military victory for Ukraine and integration into the EU and NATO.”
That is Kyiv’s position. Hardly promising conditions for a ceasefire. And one thing is clear: For now, China’s paper on a political solution does not substantially contribute to ending the war in Ukraine. However, it must also be noted that China is taking a position with this paper and is showing interest in a solution to the conflict. To truly mediate credibly, Xi Jinping must now also establish direct contact with Ukraine.
