Table.Briefing: China (English)

China policy under J.D. Vance + Pipeline conflict in West Africa

Dear reader,

“Everyone in this world is one of three kinds: a good Terminator, a bad Terminator, or neutral,” says Mamaw in “Hillbilly Elegy” – the autobiography by J.D. Vance, a global bestseller. The character Mamaw, based on his grandmother, categorizes the world this way with reference to the action movie featuring Arnold Schwarzenegger as the killer android. In real life, J.D. Vance also seems to draw similar clear lines between good and evil, friend and foe – but what about neutral?

Since the beginning of the week, J.D. Vance has been officially positioned as Donald Trump’s number two and will become vice president if Trump wins the election. As Michael Radunski writes, Vance has already made it clear who the enemy is in real life: China. He claims the People’s Republic is the “greatest threat” to the USA. Vance is what is known as an Asia-First Republican. His goal is for the USA to focus more on China rather than other global hotspots, which could have dramatic implications for Europe.

Beijing is currently facing foreign policy challenges in West Africa: The China-built and funded Niger-Benin oil pipeline is testing the People’s Republic’s doctrine of non-interference. A rebel group demanding the reinstatement of ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum has severely damaged the pipeline and disrupted its operation. Our colleague from Africa.Table, Arne Schuette, explains the conflict.

Our colleagues from Africa.Table have also prepared an exciting and highly topical live briefing for you this week. The topic: “Investing in Africa: Volkswagen’s Experiences”. Of course, it will also cover China – after all, competition does not stop at national borders. Thomas Schaefer, CEO of the Volkswagen brand and SAFRI Chairman, will speak at our Table Café in Berlin. You can register here. Do you want to attend in person? Then send an email to africa.content@table.media.

Courageous government critic, shrewd businessman or clever fraudster? Guo Wengui 郭文贵 is probably mostly the latter: a ruthless conman. Finn Mayer-Kuckuk introduces you to the fallen businessman who was convicted in the USA this week, in today’s Heads.

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Amelie Richter
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Feature

Trump’s potential VP: How J.D. Vance wants to change America’s China policy

James David Vance is to become US Vice President under Donald Trump.

James David Vance aims to realign US foreign policy. Immediately after his nomination as the potential Vice President under Donald Trump, Vance announced that the Trump-Vance administration would prioritize China. The People’s Republic is the “greatest threat” to the USA. As Vance succinctly put it in a speech last year: “That’s the true enemy.”

Important for Europe: Vance is a so-called Asia-First Republican. His goal: The USA should focus more on China instead of other global hotspots. The Senator from Ohio is convinced: The USA is currently losing ground to China because it is too distracted. This “distraction” for Vance is primarily America’s support for Europe and Ukraine.

Vance’s China policy revolves around two main points: trade and Taiwan.

Trump’s trade war against China

On trade, Vance is fully aligned with Donald Trump, who started a trade war against China during his first term. Now, he threatens to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 60 percent.

Vance also believes that higher tariffs on Chinese imports will boost economic development in the USA. In an interview with “Face the Nation” this week, Vance said: “If you apply tariffs, really what it is is you’re saying that we’re gonna penalize you for using slave labor in China and importing that stuff in the United States. What you end up doing is you end up making more stuff in America, in Pennsylvania, in Ohio and in Michigan.” Additionally, the Republican Party platform states that they want to revoke China’s “most-favored-nation” status.

Vance describes his stance as “economic nationalism”. This means Vance believes that by supporting US production, the rise of China can be directly countered. “We should make more of our stuff,” Vance says, adding: “even at the cost of a few basis points of GDP”. Because that would likely be a side effect of increasingly higher tariffs.

Differences from Biden’s tariffs

Interestingly, the current US government under Joe Biden also relies on tariffs. They have imposed tariffs worth 18 billion dollars on Chinese goods, including a 100 percent tariff on EVs.

However, Vance is skeptical of EVs and renewable energies. He recently supported a bill to abolish federal tax incentives for electric vehicles. In his view, electric cars only contribute to shifting American jobs to China. Vance, however, does not mention that currently, hardly any EVs from Chinese companies are sold in the USA.

Generally, Vance sees environmental protection as a weakness – even for the EU. “The fact that Europe has become weaker is because they deindustrialized … because they followed the Biden administration’s green energy agenda, which inevitably strengthens China and Russia.” Vance, however, called Joe Biden’s “CHIPS and Science Act” a “great law” – one of very few Republicans to do so. The 2022 act aims to boost semiconductor chip production in the USA to better compete with China and other countries.

Taiwan instead of Ukraine

Semiconductors also lead directly to the second point of Vance’s China policy: Taiwan. At the beginning of the year, Vance declared on the TV channel “Real America’s Voice”: If mainland China attacks Taiwan, the USA would lose many chips and new technologies “necessary for the modern economy”. His conclusion: “We cannot allow the Chinese to invade Taiwan.”

At this point, Europeans should listen carefully. To effectively defend Taiwan, the USA must, according to Vance, withdraw weapons and support from other regions of the world. Vance primarily mentions Ukraine. He is convinced: war in Ukraine is “an invitation to Chinese aggression because they know we do not have the weapon systems to support both Ukraine and Taiwan”. Shortly after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Vance stated: “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”

Europe needs to take care of itself

Vance didn’t want to leave it at that. In the New York Times, he explained that the Patriot air defense systems demanded by Ukraine are equally important for Taiwan. “These weapons are not only needed by Ukraine. If China were to set its sights on Taiwan, the Patriot missile system would be critical to its defense.”

That is correct. And indeed, the USA has promised nearly 900 million dollars worth of Patriot missiles to Taiwan. However, there are delays – partly due to deliveries to Ukraine. For Vance, this is a sign of flawed policy. He is convinced: China must see how strong the USA really is – on-site, not somewhere in Europe.

None of this should be surprising for Europe. In February, Vance attended the Munich Security Conference. At the Bayerischer Hof, Vance urged Europeans to take more responsibility for their military defense, especially for their own production of weapons and ammunition. “Then the USA can deploy its resources against an aggressive China.” Under a Trump-Vance administration, the USA is likely to consolidate its resources – against China. It remains to be seen whether Europeans will take the necessary steps.

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Niger: China’s non-interference doctrine under pressure

After the closure of the border between Benin and Niger, hundreds of trucks were stranded at the checkpoints: August 2023.

The China-built and financed Niger-Benin oil pipeline tests the People’s Republic’s foreign policy doctrine of non-interference. A rebel group demanding the return of deposed Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum severely damaged the pipeline and disrupted its operation. The rebels stated that their attack aimed to force Niger’s Chinese partners to end their oil business with the Nigerien junta.

The nearly 2,000-kilometer Niger-Benin pipeline connects oil fields in eastern Niger through Benin to the Atlantic Ocean, enabling the export of Nigerien crude oil for the first time. The pipeline is expected to increase Niger’s oil production from the current 20,000 barrels per day by an additional 90,000 barrels per day for export. The pipeline is operated by the Chinese state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the only oil company extracting oil in Niger. CNPC began construction in 2019, and the pipeline was officially inaugurated in November 2023, shortly after the Nigerien military coup in July of the same year.

China adjusts to the coup leaders

In line with its foreign policy doctrine of non-interference, China did not condemn the military coup but instead quietly accommodated the new rulers: As long as its economic interests are protected, Beijing does not concern itself with who holds power in its partner capitals.

For the Nigerien junta, the pipeline became a vital lifeline. After the coup, many former partners severed ties with Niger, significantly limiting the financial scope of the military rulers. Revenues from oil exports were intended to refill state coffers.

However, even before the attack on the pipeline in mid-June halted exports, only one shipment of oil had been exported through the pipeline. The reason is an ongoing diplomatic dispute between Niger and Benin.

Rebels demand end to business with junta

Along with other members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Benin imposed sanctions on Niger following the military coup, including border closures, to force the military to return power to the elected government. Benin’s President Patrice Talon loudly demanded Bazoum’s reinstatement and even supported a military intervention by ECOWAS. Despite the lifting of sanctions in February, Niger has refused to reopen the border with Benin. Barricades originally erected in anticipation of an armed ECOWAS intervention still block the road between the two countries. Benin then prohibited the loading of Nigerien oil. Chinese mediators managed to reach an agreement in mid-May, but it was short-lived.

In this already complex situation, another player is now trying to use Africa’s longest pipeline for its purposes. The rebel group Front Patriotique pour la Libération (FPL) attacked the pipeline in June and threatened further attacks. The group, formed after the July 2023 coup, demands the cancellation of the oil deal with CNPC and a return to constitutional order. FPL is particularly opposed to a 400 million dollar deal with CNPC from April, which they claim financially sustains the junta.

Is the doctrine of non-interference obsolete?

Resolving the dispute is crucial for all three involved countries: Benin earns from transit fees and wants to continue handling imports for Niger; Niger urgently needs to export its crude oil to avoid state bankruptcy; China maintains good relations with both countries, is a recipient of oil exports, and has an interest in protecting its investments in the region.

However, China also faces the fundamental question of the effectiveness of its foreign policy doctrine of non-interference. So far, the People’s Republic has benefited from staying silent on the affairs of other countries. But the Nigerien FPL’s attack on the new pipeline forces Beijing to reassess the situation: Either China lays its cards on the table, insists on its economic interests, and openly sides with the junta, or it tries to negotiate with the FPL, which would alienate the junta.

In any case, China’s foreign policy faces a new situation where the old approach no longer suffices. How Beijing ultimately responds remains to be seen. The case of the Nigerien oil pipeline could provide insight into how the People’s Republic will handle the delicate issue of (non-)interference in the future.

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News

ID. Unyx: How a new brand is supposed to save VW in China

The almost 4.7-meter-long E-SUV Coupé ID.Unyx.

At the world premiere in Anhui, VW unveiled the first model of its new EV brand, ID. Unyx. Named after the brand itself, the ID. Unyx is an E-SUV coupe scheduled for release this summer. “We aim to attract young, lifestyle-oriented target groups,” said Stefan Mecha, VW’s brand chief in the People’s Republic.

By 2026, four more models from the new brand are planned, including SUVs and sedans. The sub-brand will have its own dealer network in China, featuring 40 showrooms in 20 cities. The nearly 4.7-meter-long E-SUV coupe, ID. Unyx, is also expected to arrive in Europe, likely in the fall. The basic version of the ID. Unyx with 210 kW (286 PS) and a 77 kWh battery is expected to have a range of up to 621 km, according to the CLTC (China Light-Duty Test Cycle).

According to VW, the first model is largely based on the Cupra Tavascan, but with a redesigned interior and a slightly modified front design. The EV was developed at VW’s new Innovation and Development Center in Hefei. This announcement is VW’s response to the success of BYD, the Chinese manufacturer that overtook Volkswagen as the market leader in China in 2023. fpe

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WTO: Which industrial data on China is missing

The WTO has stated that it lacks sufficient reliable data to adequately assess China’s controversial industrial policy. There is a pervasive lack of transparency, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, aluminum and steel, the WTO reported from Geneva on Wednesday. The USA and the EU accuse the world’s second-largest economy of heavily subsidizing key industries, which then flood global markets with cheaply produced goods.

The WTO emphasized that the Chinese leadership provides too little information to properly evaluate these subsidies. According to the WTO, China’s subsidy reports “do not include information on the amount of spending in sectors where state support likely has global impacts”. Examples cited include aluminum, EVs, solar panels, glass, shipbuilding, semiconductors and steel.

The presence of Chinese state-owned enterprises makes it difficult to get a complete picture of the level of state subsidies, according to the WTO. The WTO releases its industrial policy assessment report on China every three years. This report is being discussed this week, on Wednesday and Friday, in Geneva, where all WTO delegations can comment. China is represented by Vice Minister of Economy Li Fei.

Beijing seeks dispute resolution panel on US tariffs

Beijing rejected the WTO’s claims, arguing in its own report that “industrial subsidies are important policy tools” for developing countries to modernize their economies and improve living standards. The Chinese government expressed willingness to discuss subsidies within the WTO but insisted on a limited scope for such discussions. The direction and objectives of these discussions should be clearly defined to prevent general debates on state interventions or industrial policy, stated the Chinese response also published on Wednesday. “Under no circumstances should the discussion touch on the economic systems and development models of the members.”

This week, Beijing called on the WTO to establish a dispute resolution panel to investigate its complaint from March about US subsidies for EVs. According to Beijing, both sides could not reach an agreement after talks. ari/rtr

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Youth unemployment: Why the rate has dropped significantly

Youth unemployment is one of the major issues facing the world’s second-largest economy. This topic is likely being addressed by the party leadership during their Third Plenum. Recently, the national statistics bureau announced that youth unemployment among 16- to 24-year-olds dropped to 13.2 percent in June, down from 14.2 percent in May.

In the summer of the previous year, Chinese authorities reported youth unemployment at 21.3 percent. However, they subsequently stopped publishing this specific figure. Since a new calculation method was introduced in December, these numbers have been made public again.

The overall unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5 percent in June. The official figures from the statistics bureau provide only a partial view of the overall situation in the country, as they only account for people officially registered in cities, excluding those in rural areas. Rural residents, however, comprise about 40 percent of the total population. flee

DMA: TikTok remains gatekeeper

The Chinese app TikTok continues to be classified as a gatekeeper according to the DMA. In the first instance, the European Court dismissed the lawsuit filed by TikTok’s parent company, Bytedance, against this classification. The company expressed disappointment over this decision. “TikTok is a platform that promotes significant competition with established providers,” a spokesperson said. TikTok will now “consider its next steps”. The platform can appeal the decision to the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

In September 2023, the European Commission designated TikTok as a gatekeeper under the DMA. In November 2023, Bytedance filed an annulment action against this decision and also submitted a request for interim relief. The court rejected the request, as well as the lawsuit itself.

The European Consumer Organization BEUC welcomed the ruling, as did Andreas Schwab (CDU), the rapporteur for the DMA. Schwab stated that Bytedance “must now comply with our European regulations, which aim to protect users, ensure fair competition and guarantee equal access to services”.

TikTok’s arguments rejected

The court cited several reasons for the dismissal of TikTok’s case:

  • Multi-homing: TikTok argued that a significant number of its users also used other platforms like Facebook and Instagram, indicating that no significant lock-in effects existed. The Commission and the court countered that this was because Facebook and Instagram were already established before TikTok entered the market.
  • Intensity of use: The Commission argued that young people, in particular, used TikTok more intensively than other social networks. TikTok disputed this but could not convincingly substantiate its claim.
  • Importance as a gateway: The Commission noted that TikTok had a significant number of users and business customers reliant on the platform to reach consumers. TikTok’s counterarguments were insufficient.
  • Advertising revenue and business users: TikTok argued that its advertising revenue and advertiser engagement were lower than those of other platforms. The Commission pointed out that advertising revenue is not the only indicator of a platform’s importance as a major gateway and that many business users on TikTok are not paying advertisers but still depend on the platform.

Court points out Commission’s errors

The court also identified errors made by the Commission during the designation process. However, these errors did not affect the legality of the contested decision. The court found that:

  • The Commission was wrong to dismiss Bytedance’s arguments regarding its revenue in the EU as irrelevant. The Commission should have adequately considered this point.
  • TikTok did not have the opportunity to comment on certain findings by the Commission during the administrative procedure, such as the Commission’s determination that Bytedance had its own ecosystem. This constituted a violation of the right to be heard.

Should TikTok decide not to appeal, the ruling has several implications for the platform: It will remain subject to the stringent regulations and controls as a gatekeeper. Additionally, TikTok may need to adjust its business strategy to comply with the DMA’s requirements and avoid sanctions. vis

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Heads

Guo Wengui: How the convicted fraudster tried to overthrow the CCP

Guo Wengui
Guo Wengui has been convicted in the USA.

Courageous government critic, shrewd businessman or skilled fraudster? Guo Wengui 郭文贵 is likely the latter: a ruthless charlatan. The exiled Chinese businessman was found guilty by a US court on Tuesday: The 55-year-old swindled his online followers out of billions by promising foolproof investments. The sentence for fraud, embezzlement and money laundering will be announced in mid-November.

Initially, Guo enjoyed high sympathy in the USA because he styled himself as a political activist fighting against the communists. Among his close friends was the far-right ideologue Stephen Bannon, the first chief strategist of Donald Trump. However, Guo’s critical stance towards the Chinese system always had an undertone: As a real estate investor, he had greatly benefited from connections to the leadership in China.

Guo Wengui - Miles Kwok

Guo fled to the USA in 2014 because the police were on his heels in China. They were investigating him for bribery, kidnapping and rape, but mainly for defrauding investors in his company. Guo, however, claimed to be politically persecuted and to possess incriminating material against Chinese top officials. In fact, he apparently had access to video material from the security authorities, obtained through bribery, that implicated high-ranking individuals.

Defrauded right-wing followers of a billion dollars

In the USA, he couldn’t stop defrauding. In right-wing and conservative circles, he quickly gained a following, telling them fairy tales of quick riches through investments in his companies starting in 2018. He promised in videos on platforms like Twitter and Facebook that anyone who invested with him would only gain. “I am rich, I take care of you,” he assured them. He offered an emotional mix of high returns, the fight against communism, and the dissemination of right-wing “truths” through investments in his media projects.

As revealed in court, his followers transferred around a billion dollars to him. Among other things, Guo used this money to buy a 4,000 square meter mansion, a luxury yacht and a Lamborghini. One of his carpets is estimated to be worth 350,000 dollars. These are not sustainable investments.

But there are even more swashbuckling tales about Guo. Along with Bannon, he founded two online media outlets that later became notorious for spreading false information. Among other things, they, like Trump, touted a malaria drug as a cure for COVID-19.

The myth of politically persecution

When US media continue to refer to him as a “government critic” in their reports about his conviction, they fall for yet another of his falsehoods. He only began criticizing the CCP after fleeing China as a wanted criminal; prior to that, he engaged in illegal activities and exploited the system wherever possible. In the USA, he adjusted his scheme under Bannon’s influence. Together, they accused Joe Biden of colluding with China and portrayed Trump as the only one who could stand up to the communists.

In 2020, Bannon and Guo hatched an especially wild story. They announced the founding of a “New Federal State of China” from Guo’s yacht in New York Harbor. The head of the exiled government? Guo. The state’s goal was to overthrow the CCP. Guo even opened an embassy in New York. However, even the right-wing network Fox News found the action highly dubious. It came to nothing, except for the most important currency for right-wing agitators and fraudsters: attention. Finn Mayer-Kuckuk

Executive Moves

Kara Němečková is the new Research Fellow at CEIAS (Central European Institute of Asian Studies) in the newly established office in Prague. Němečková was previously External Relations Manager at the think tank CHOICE.

Danny Alexander is leaving the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AIIB. As Vice President, the Briton was one of the highest-ranking Western representatives at the Beijing-backed investment bank. The former Chief Secretary to the UK Treasury is moving to HSBC.

Is something changing in your organization? Let us know at heads@table.media!

Dessert

Although there is still a dispute between China and Nepal over which side the peak of Mount Everest belongs to, and the two countries also disagree on its height, the best view of the highest mountain in the world is from China – at least at sunrise.

China.Table editorial team

CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

Licenses:
    Dear reader,

    “Everyone in this world is one of three kinds: a good Terminator, a bad Terminator, or neutral,” says Mamaw in “Hillbilly Elegy” – the autobiography by J.D. Vance, a global bestseller. The character Mamaw, based on his grandmother, categorizes the world this way with reference to the action movie featuring Arnold Schwarzenegger as the killer android. In real life, J.D. Vance also seems to draw similar clear lines between good and evil, friend and foe – but what about neutral?

    Since the beginning of the week, J.D. Vance has been officially positioned as Donald Trump’s number two and will become vice president if Trump wins the election. As Michael Radunski writes, Vance has already made it clear who the enemy is in real life: China. He claims the People’s Republic is the “greatest threat” to the USA. Vance is what is known as an Asia-First Republican. His goal is for the USA to focus more on China rather than other global hotspots, which could have dramatic implications for Europe.

    Beijing is currently facing foreign policy challenges in West Africa: The China-built and funded Niger-Benin oil pipeline is testing the People’s Republic’s doctrine of non-interference. A rebel group demanding the reinstatement of ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum has severely damaged the pipeline and disrupted its operation. Our colleague from Africa.Table, Arne Schuette, explains the conflict.

    Our colleagues from Africa.Table have also prepared an exciting and highly topical live briefing for you this week. The topic: “Investing in Africa: Volkswagen’s Experiences”. Of course, it will also cover China – after all, competition does not stop at national borders. Thomas Schaefer, CEO of the Volkswagen brand and SAFRI Chairman, will speak at our Table Café in Berlin. You can register here. Do you want to attend in person? Then send an email to africa.content@table.media.

    Courageous government critic, shrewd businessman or clever fraudster? Guo Wengui 郭文贵 is probably mostly the latter: a ruthless conman. Finn Mayer-Kuckuk introduces you to the fallen businessman who was convicted in the USA this week, in today’s Heads.

    Your
    Amelie Richter
    Image of Amelie  Richter

    Feature

    Trump’s potential VP: How J.D. Vance wants to change America’s China policy

    James David Vance is to become US Vice President under Donald Trump.

    James David Vance aims to realign US foreign policy. Immediately after his nomination as the potential Vice President under Donald Trump, Vance announced that the Trump-Vance administration would prioritize China. The People’s Republic is the “greatest threat” to the USA. As Vance succinctly put it in a speech last year: “That’s the true enemy.”

    Important for Europe: Vance is a so-called Asia-First Republican. His goal: The USA should focus more on China instead of other global hotspots. The Senator from Ohio is convinced: The USA is currently losing ground to China because it is too distracted. This “distraction” for Vance is primarily America’s support for Europe and Ukraine.

    Vance’s China policy revolves around two main points: trade and Taiwan.

    Trump’s trade war against China

    On trade, Vance is fully aligned with Donald Trump, who started a trade war against China during his first term. Now, he threatens to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 60 percent.

    Vance also believes that higher tariffs on Chinese imports will boost economic development in the USA. In an interview with “Face the Nation” this week, Vance said: “If you apply tariffs, really what it is is you’re saying that we’re gonna penalize you for using slave labor in China and importing that stuff in the United States. What you end up doing is you end up making more stuff in America, in Pennsylvania, in Ohio and in Michigan.” Additionally, the Republican Party platform states that they want to revoke China’s “most-favored-nation” status.

    Vance describes his stance as “economic nationalism”. This means Vance believes that by supporting US production, the rise of China can be directly countered. “We should make more of our stuff,” Vance says, adding: “even at the cost of a few basis points of GDP”. Because that would likely be a side effect of increasingly higher tariffs.

    Differences from Biden’s tariffs

    Interestingly, the current US government under Joe Biden also relies on tariffs. They have imposed tariffs worth 18 billion dollars on Chinese goods, including a 100 percent tariff on EVs.

    However, Vance is skeptical of EVs and renewable energies. He recently supported a bill to abolish federal tax incentives for electric vehicles. In his view, electric cars only contribute to shifting American jobs to China. Vance, however, does not mention that currently, hardly any EVs from Chinese companies are sold in the USA.

    Generally, Vance sees environmental protection as a weakness – even for the EU. “The fact that Europe has become weaker is because they deindustrialized … because they followed the Biden administration’s green energy agenda, which inevitably strengthens China and Russia.” Vance, however, called Joe Biden’s “CHIPS and Science Act” a “great law” – one of very few Republicans to do so. The 2022 act aims to boost semiconductor chip production in the USA to better compete with China and other countries.

    Taiwan instead of Ukraine

    Semiconductors also lead directly to the second point of Vance’s China policy: Taiwan. At the beginning of the year, Vance declared on the TV channel “Real America’s Voice”: If mainland China attacks Taiwan, the USA would lose many chips and new technologies “necessary for the modern economy”. His conclusion: “We cannot allow the Chinese to invade Taiwan.”

    At this point, Europeans should listen carefully. To effectively defend Taiwan, the USA must, according to Vance, withdraw weapons and support from other regions of the world. Vance primarily mentions Ukraine. He is convinced: war in Ukraine is “an invitation to Chinese aggression because they know we do not have the weapon systems to support both Ukraine and Taiwan”. Shortly after Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Vance stated: “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.”

    Europe needs to take care of itself

    Vance didn’t want to leave it at that. In the New York Times, he explained that the Patriot air defense systems demanded by Ukraine are equally important for Taiwan. “These weapons are not only needed by Ukraine. If China were to set its sights on Taiwan, the Patriot missile system would be critical to its defense.”

    That is correct. And indeed, the USA has promised nearly 900 million dollars worth of Patriot missiles to Taiwan. However, there are delays – partly due to deliveries to Ukraine. For Vance, this is a sign of flawed policy. He is convinced: China must see how strong the USA really is – on-site, not somewhere in Europe.

    None of this should be surprising for Europe. In February, Vance attended the Munich Security Conference. At the Bayerischer Hof, Vance urged Europeans to take more responsibility for their military defense, especially for their own production of weapons and ammunition. “Then the USA can deploy its resources against an aggressive China.” Under a Trump-Vance administration, the USA is likely to consolidate its resources – against China. It remains to be seen whether Europeans will take the necessary steps.

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    Niger: China’s non-interference doctrine under pressure

    After the closure of the border between Benin and Niger, hundreds of trucks were stranded at the checkpoints: August 2023.

    The China-built and financed Niger-Benin oil pipeline tests the People’s Republic’s foreign policy doctrine of non-interference. A rebel group demanding the return of deposed Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum severely damaged the pipeline and disrupted its operation. The rebels stated that their attack aimed to force Niger’s Chinese partners to end their oil business with the Nigerien junta.

    The nearly 2,000-kilometer Niger-Benin pipeline connects oil fields in eastern Niger through Benin to the Atlantic Ocean, enabling the export of Nigerien crude oil for the first time. The pipeline is expected to increase Niger’s oil production from the current 20,000 barrels per day by an additional 90,000 barrels per day for export. The pipeline is operated by the Chinese state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the only oil company extracting oil in Niger. CNPC began construction in 2019, and the pipeline was officially inaugurated in November 2023, shortly after the Nigerien military coup in July of the same year.

    China adjusts to the coup leaders

    In line with its foreign policy doctrine of non-interference, China did not condemn the military coup but instead quietly accommodated the new rulers: As long as its economic interests are protected, Beijing does not concern itself with who holds power in its partner capitals.

    For the Nigerien junta, the pipeline became a vital lifeline. After the coup, many former partners severed ties with Niger, significantly limiting the financial scope of the military rulers. Revenues from oil exports were intended to refill state coffers.

    However, even before the attack on the pipeline in mid-June halted exports, only one shipment of oil had been exported through the pipeline. The reason is an ongoing diplomatic dispute between Niger and Benin.

    Rebels demand end to business with junta

    Along with other members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Benin imposed sanctions on Niger following the military coup, including border closures, to force the military to return power to the elected government. Benin’s President Patrice Talon loudly demanded Bazoum’s reinstatement and even supported a military intervention by ECOWAS. Despite the lifting of sanctions in February, Niger has refused to reopen the border with Benin. Barricades originally erected in anticipation of an armed ECOWAS intervention still block the road between the two countries. Benin then prohibited the loading of Nigerien oil. Chinese mediators managed to reach an agreement in mid-May, but it was short-lived.

    In this already complex situation, another player is now trying to use Africa’s longest pipeline for its purposes. The rebel group Front Patriotique pour la Libération (FPL) attacked the pipeline in June and threatened further attacks. The group, formed after the July 2023 coup, demands the cancellation of the oil deal with CNPC and a return to constitutional order. FPL is particularly opposed to a 400 million dollar deal with CNPC from April, which they claim financially sustains the junta.

    Is the doctrine of non-interference obsolete?

    Resolving the dispute is crucial for all three involved countries: Benin earns from transit fees and wants to continue handling imports for Niger; Niger urgently needs to export its crude oil to avoid state bankruptcy; China maintains good relations with both countries, is a recipient of oil exports, and has an interest in protecting its investments in the region.

    However, China also faces the fundamental question of the effectiveness of its foreign policy doctrine of non-interference. So far, the People’s Republic has benefited from staying silent on the affairs of other countries. But the Nigerien FPL’s attack on the new pipeline forces Beijing to reassess the situation: Either China lays its cards on the table, insists on its economic interests, and openly sides with the junta, or it tries to negotiate with the FPL, which would alienate the junta.

    In any case, China’s foreign policy faces a new situation where the old approach no longer suffices. How Beijing ultimately responds remains to be seen. The case of the Nigerien oil pipeline could provide insight into how the People’s Republic will handle the delicate issue of (non-)interference in the future.

    • Geopolitik

    News

    ID. Unyx: How a new brand is supposed to save VW in China

    The almost 4.7-meter-long E-SUV Coupé ID.Unyx.

    At the world premiere in Anhui, VW unveiled the first model of its new EV brand, ID. Unyx. Named after the brand itself, the ID. Unyx is an E-SUV coupe scheduled for release this summer. “We aim to attract young, lifestyle-oriented target groups,” said Stefan Mecha, VW’s brand chief in the People’s Republic.

    By 2026, four more models from the new brand are planned, including SUVs and sedans. The sub-brand will have its own dealer network in China, featuring 40 showrooms in 20 cities. The nearly 4.7-meter-long E-SUV coupe, ID. Unyx, is also expected to arrive in Europe, likely in the fall. The basic version of the ID. Unyx with 210 kW (286 PS) and a 77 kWh battery is expected to have a range of up to 621 km, according to the CLTC (China Light-Duty Test Cycle).

    According to VW, the first model is largely based on the Cupra Tavascan, but with a redesigned interior and a slightly modified front design. The EV was developed at VW’s new Innovation and Development Center in Hefei. This announcement is VW’s response to the success of BYD, the Chinese manufacturer that overtook Volkswagen as the market leader in China in 2023. fpe

    • Car Industry

    WTO: Which industrial data on China is missing

    The WTO has stated that it lacks sufficient reliable data to adequately assess China’s controversial industrial policy. There is a pervasive lack of transparency, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, aluminum and steel, the WTO reported from Geneva on Wednesday. The USA and the EU accuse the world’s second-largest economy of heavily subsidizing key industries, which then flood global markets with cheaply produced goods.

    The WTO emphasized that the Chinese leadership provides too little information to properly evaluate these subsidies. According to the WTO, China’s subsidy reports “do not include information on the amount of spending in sectors where state support likely has global impacts”. Examples cited include aluminum, EVs, solar panels, glass, shipbuilding, semiconductors and steel.

    The presence of Chinese state-owned enterprises makes it difficult to get a complete picture of the level of state subsidies, according to the WTO. The WTO releases its industrial policy assessment report on China every three years. This report is being discussed this week, on Wednesday and Friday, in Geneva, where all WTO delegations can comment. China is represented by Vice Minister of Economy Li Fei.

    Beijing seeks dispute resolution panel on US tariffs

    Beijing rejected the WTO’s claims, arguing in its own report that “industrial subsidies are important policy tools” for developing countries to modernize their economies and improve living standards. The Chinese government expressed willingness to discuss subsidies within the WTO but insisted on a limited scope for such discussions. The direction and objectives of these discussions should be clearly defined to prevent general debates on state interventions or industrial policy, stated the Chinese response also published on Wednesday. “Under no circumstances should the discussion touch on the economic systems and development models of the members.”

    This week, Beijing called on the WTO to establish a dispute resolution panel to investigate its complaint from March about US subsidies for EVs. According to Beijing, both sides could not reach an agreement after talks. ari/rtr

    • WTO

    Youth unemployment: Why the rate has dropped significantly

    Youth unemployment is one of the major issues facing the world’s second-largest economy. This topic is likely being addressed by the party leadership during their Third Plenum. Recently, the national statistics bureau announced that youth unemployment among 16- to 24-year-olds dropped to 13.2 percent in June, down from 14.2 percent in May.

    In the summer of the previous year, Chinese authorities reported youth unemployment at 21.3 percent. However, they subsequently stopped publishing this specific figure. Since a new calculation method was introduced in December, these numbers have been made public again.

    The overall unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5 percent in June. The official figures from the statistics bureau provide only a partial view of the overall situation in the country, as they only account for people officially registered in cities, excluding those in rural areas. Rural residents, however, comprise about 40 percent of the total population. flee

    DMA: TikTok remains gatekeeper

    The Chinese app TikTok continues to be classified as a gatekeeper according to the DMA. In the first instance, the European Court dismissed the lawsuit filed by TikTok’s parent company, Bytedance, against this classification. The company expressed disappointment over this decision. “TikTok is a platform that promotes significant competition with established providers,” a spokesperson said. TikTok will now “consider its next steps”. The platform can appeal the decision to the European Court of Justice (ECJ).

    In September 2023, the European Commission designated TikTok as a gatekeeper under the DMA. In November 2023, Bytedance filed an annulment action against this decision and also submitted a request for interim relief. The court rejected the request, as well as the lawsuit itself.

    The European Consumer Organization BEUC welcomed the ruling, as did Andreas Schwab (CDU), the rapporteur for the DMA. Schwab stated that Bytedance “must now comply with our European regulations, which aim to protect users, ensure fair competition and guarantee equal access to services”.

    TikTok’s arguments rejected

    The court cited several reasons for the dismissal of TikTok’s case:

    • Multi-homing: TikTok argued that a significant number of its users also used other platforms like Facebook and Instagram, indicating that no significant lock-in effects existed. The Commission and the court countered that this was because Facebook and Instagram were already established before TikTok entered the market.
    • Intensity of use: The Commission argued that young people, in particular, used TikTok more intensively than other social networks. TikTok disputed this but could not convincingly substantiate its claim.
    • Importance as a gateway: The Commission noted that TikTok had a significant number of users and business customers reliant on the platform to reach consumers. TikTok’s counterarguments were insufficient.
    • Advertising revenue and business users: TikTok argued that its advertising revenue and advertiser engagement were lower than those of other platforms. The Commission pointed out that advertising revenue is not the only indicator of a platform’s importance as a major gateway and that many business users on TikTok are not paying advertisers but still depend on the platform.

    Court points out Commission’s errors

    The court also identified errors made by the Commission during the designation process. However, these errors did not affect the legality of the contested decision. The court found that:

    • The Commission was wrong to dismiss Bytedance’s arguments regarding its revenue in the EU as irrelevant. The Commission should have adequately considered this point.
    • TikTok did not have the opportunity to comment on certain findings by the Commission during the administrative procedure, such as the Commission’s determination that Bytedance had its own ecosystem. This constituted a violation of the right to be heard.

    Should TikTok decide not to appeal, the ruling has several implications for the platform: It will remain subject to the stringent regulations and controls as a gatekeeper. Additionally, TikTok may need to adjust its business strategy to comply with the DMA’s requirements and avoid sanctions. vis

    • Digital Markets Act
    • Digital policy
    • Tiktok

    Heads

    Guo Wengui: How the convicted fraudster tried to overthrow the CCP

    Guo Wengui
    Guo Wengui has been convicted in the USA.

    Courageous government critic, shrewd businessman or skilled fraudster? Guo Wengui 郭文贵 is likely the latter: a ruthless charlatan. The exiled Chinese businessman was found guilty by a US court on Tuesday: The 55-year-old swindled his online followers out of billions by promising foolproof investments. The sentence for fraud, embezzlement and money laundering will be announced in mid-November.

    Initially, Guo enjoyed high sympathy in the USA because he styled himself as a political activist fighting against the communists. Among his close friends was the far-right ideologue Stephen Bannon, the first chief strategist of Donald Trump. However, Guo’s critical stance towards the Chinese system always had an undertone: As a real estate investor, he had greatly benefited from connections to the leadership in China.

    Guo Wengui - Miles Kwok

    Guo fled to the USA in 2014 because the police were on his heels in China. They were investigating him for bribery, kidnapping and rape, but mainly for defrauding investors in his company. Guo, however, claimed to be politically persecuted and to possess incriminating material against Chinese top officials. In fact, he apparently had access to video material from the security authorities, obtained through bribery, that implicated high-ranking individuals.

    Defrauded right-wing followers of a billion dollars

    In the USA, he couldn’t stop defrauding. In right-wing and conservative circles, he quickly gained a following, telling them fairy tales of quick riches through investments in his companies starting in 2018. He promised in videos on platforms like Twitter and Facebook that anyone who invested with him would only gain. “I am rich, I take care of you,” he assured them. He offered an emotional mix of high returns, the fight against communism, and the dissemination of right-wing “truths” through investments in his media projects.

    As revealed in court, his followers transferred around a billion dollars to him. Among other things, Guo used this money to buy a 4,000 square meter mansion, a luxury yacht and a Lamborghini. One of his carpets is estimated to be worth 350,000 dollars. These are not sustainable investments.

    But there are even more swashbuckling tales about Guo. Along with Bannon, he founded two online media outlets that later became notorious for spreading false information. Among other things, they, like Trump, touted a malaria drug as a cure for COVID-19.

    The myth of politically persecution

    When US media continue to refer to him as a “government critic” in their reports about his conviction, they fall for yet another of his falsehoods. He only began criticizing the CCP after fleeing China as a wanted criminal; prior to that, he engaged in illegal activities and exploited the system wherever possible. In the USA, he adjusted his scheme under Bannon’s influence. Together, they accused Joe Biden of colluding with China and portrayed Trump as the only one who could stand up to the communists.

    In 2020, Bannon and Guo hatched an especially wild story. They announced the founding of a “New Federal State of China” from Guo’s yacht in New York Harbor. The head of the exiled government? Guo. The state’s goal was to overthrow the CCP. Guo even opened an embassy in New York. However, even the right-wing network Fox News found the action highly dubious. It came to nothing, except for the most important currency for right-wing agitators and fraudsters: attention. Finn Mayer-Kuckuk

    Executive Moves

    Kara Němečková is the new Research Fellow at CEIAS (Central European Institute of Asian Studies) in the newly established office in Prague. Němečková was previously External Relations Manager at the think tank CHOICE.

    Danny Alexander is leaving the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank AIIB. As Vice President, the Briton was one of the highest-ranking Western representatives at the Beijing-backed investment bank. The former Chief Secretary to the UK Treasury is moving to HSBC.

    Is something changing in your organization? Let us know at heads@table.media!

    Dessert

    Although there is still a dispute between China and Nepal over which side the peak of Mount Everest belongs to, and the two countries also disagree on its height, the best view of the highest mountain in the world is from China – at least at sunrise.

    China.Table editorial team

    CHINA.TABLE EDITORIAL OFFICE

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