For years, even decades, business in China was almost too good to be true for German managers. In recent decades, the People’s Republic has become the prime sales market and production location for Germany’s manufacturing companies. Without the rich profits from the Far East, their balance sheets would often look meager.
But the China dream could turn into a China nightmare. The zero-covid policy in particular gives companies a hard time. For three out of four companies surveyed, China’s investment appeal has waned, Christiane Kuehl reports on a new survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. One in four companies reportedly considers withdrawing investments from China. But is a major exodus really realistic when in some cases 30 to 40 percent of revenue is generated in the People’s Republic?
A new head of government will be elected in Hong Kong this weekend. The victory of the pro-Beijing candidate John Lee is considered certain. After all, there is no other candidate and the citizens are not allowed to vote. Marcel Grzanna profiles the former police officer: He is considered an “emotionless machine,” a technocrat who wants to create efficiency and will further transform Hong Kong into a police state.
In 2021, the rest of the world suffered under the Covid pandemic, while China was already recovering. But now the tables have turned. Many countries have begun to lift their measures, while China sinks into the Omicron wave. The economy suffers under the lockdowns, and there is a lot of uncertainty. China may be the last country to find its way out of the Covid pandemic, said Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC), on Thursday in Beijing during the presentation of a flash survey on China’s Covid policy.
It is a sobering realization. Wuttke emphasized that he does not expect China’s zero-covid policy to end any time soon. The survey shows that virtually all European companies are affected by it – and to a huge extent:
So it is no wonder that for 77 percent, China’s investment appeal has declined. In the sectors of education, aviation, primary energy and raw materials, the figure was as high as 100 percent – in other words, all companies that responded to the survey.
Many companies struggle with even the most basic tasks, according to the survey. One day, they don’t know if they’ll have enough staff to keep operations going – or if their worksites might suddenly shut down altogether.
During the presentation of the survey, it became clear that this uncertainty about the future weighs most heavily on the companies. Time and again, the chamber representatives addressed the issue. “We don’t know yet what damage zero-covid will do to the economy,” Wuttke said. “The predictability of the Chinese market has disappeared.” As a result, he said, China has lost one of its greatest strengths. “We are astonished by this. And we believe the Chinese government can do better,” Wuttke said.
The EUCCC intends to forward the survey results to the government. Wuttke is also in close contact with government agencies, such as the Ministry of Commerce. And they are certainly open for dialog. However, the company representatives do not know how much influence they really have. But one thing is clear to Wuttke: “Something has to happen.” According to the survey, 91 percent of the companies would prefer a greater focus on a vaccination campaign instead of endless testing. 75 percent stated they want a different Covid policy in general.
Many economists have already scaled down their growth expectations for China in 2022 thanks to Covid – and to the Ukraine crisis. The Swiss bank UBS now expects 4.2 percent – and no longer five percent, as it did at the beginning of the year. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 36.2 in April – well below the March figure and well below the threshold of 50 that signals expansion. 58 percent of the companies surveyed lowered their sales projections for 2022, with 15 percent even forecasting a decline of more than 20 percent.
The optimism of the past years is gone. This is why a certain figure is rising which, despite all the difficulties in the economic environment in recent years, has always remained stable in the single-digit percentage range: The proportion of companies considering pulling investments or simply ceasing them altogether in China. One in four companies reported considering such steps. “This is a clear contrast to previous years,” Wuttke stressed – and precisely owed to the uncertainty about the midterm future as well. After all, the government has so far failed to show any sign of escaping from its zero-covid policy. But the impatience of companies continues to grow, according to Wuttke.
And even if China’s production environment with its numerous industrial clusters, excellent infrastructure and large supplier networks is second to none, alternatives in Southeast Asia have other advantages. “Our board members are able to travel to Indonesia or other markets without any problems whatsoever.” That means they can personally inspect potential new locations. The consequence: If investments for China are shelved while plans for other countries proceed, some China factories may not be built at all.
Many German companies are currently working to find alternatives to their China business, Karl Haeusgen, President of the German Engineering Federation (VDMA), also said in an interview with the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung on Thursday. These are still mere considerations, Wuttke conceded. “But we say: If there are no changes, then we vote with our feet.”
Ted Hui still remembers John Lee and his situation reports to the Hong Kong parliament. The atmosphere was tense, “almost hostile“. At the time, in the second half of 2019, Security Chief Lee addressed the MPs, and Hui, who now lives in exile in Australia, was among them. Millions of people had taken to the streets at the time to protest a law that would allow Hong Kong citizens to be extradited to Chinese law enforcement agencies.
But the proposed law was only the straw that broke the camel’s back. At its core, the people wanted to defend their civil rights. They protested against the growing influence of the Chinese Communist Party on local politics. “We Democrats loudly urged Lee to take a stand on the accusations and the protesters’ demands. But Lee avoided any verbal confrontation with us, read out his text and left,” Hui told China.Table.
Everything points to this John Lee will be elected as Hong Kong’s new Chief Executive next Sunday. For one, he is the only candidate who runs to succeed retiring Carrie Lam and enjoys Beijing’s official support. Secondly, more than half of the 1,454 eligible voters have already publicly declared their support for Lee. He needs an absolute majority of 728 votes to win.
It is the first time that the election committee has met on this scale. And never before have its members so clearly represented the interests of Beijing’s central government. This is also due to the Election Committee’s new lineup of Hong Kong representatives to the National People’s Congress and its Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. This is a strictly pro-Beijing faction. All 300 eligible voters in this new sector have pledged their support to candidate Lee.
Beijing’s interests have been more focused than ever on stifling any resistance in the city since the 2019 mass protests. The introduction of the National Security Law two years ago provided the legal framework to criminalize and paralyze the democratic movement in Hong Kong. Lee’s election would politically underscore this development.
Lee is not regarded as an intellectual political visionary, but as a loyal technocrat who wants to create efficiency. “The Chinese government wants a rule of security forces for Hong Kong and needs someone who can handle the security forces. He has that,” says former MP Hui. “Lee is an emotionless machine. He is exactly what Beijing needs.”
Samuel Chu of the US-based Campaign for Hong Kong also believes Lee is the ideal representative for Beijing’s interests: “The chief executive role is no longer one that in any way represents or speaks for Hong Kongers’ interests and well-being. It makes perfect sense to put a [former] police [officer] in charge of a police state,” Chu told Voice of America.
Indeed, Lee seems destined for the job. He joined the civil service back in 1977 and climbed the career ladder, especially after 1997. In 2010, he was appointed Deputy Commissioner of Police and, two years later, Under Secretary for Security. In 2017, retiring Government Executive Carrie Lam appointed him as Secretary for Security. Last year, Lam also made him Chief Secretary for Administration in her government, making him number two in Hong Kong’s administrative hierarchy.
Maya Wang of Human Rights Watch expects restrictions on civil liberties to continue under Lee’s administration. “It’s clear that Beijing wants Lee to punish Hong Kong people for their perceived disobedience to Beijing,” she wrote in a statement to Voice of America. “Lee’s tenure [as Hong Kong’s second-highest political official] was marked by police brutality and a lack of accountability for the police officers who used excessive force during the 2019 protests.”
Last Friday, the 64-year-old formally vowed under Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, to “fulfill the constitutional responsibility of legislation” if elected. Article 23 stipulates that “any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government” must be prohibited.
In a 44-page manifesto, Lee reveals plans for his term. He strives for a “results-oriented” approach to “increase the city’s competitiveness”. While critics complain about a lack of specifics, they give Lee credit for the fact that he has had little time since his candidacy in early April to outline a comprehensive policy program. As head of government, Lee will also have to advance the city’s development. Plans to restructure the administration and build the Northern Metropolis with millions of new apartments were bequeathed to him by his predecessor.
Lee must also drive the redevelopment of the education sector. The city has probably lost much of its appeal to talents from all over the world thanks to the erosion of civil rights. Within a few years, the city fell out of the top 20 in Reporters Without Borders’ press freedom ranking to 148th out of 180 (China.Table reported).
Several renowned Hong Kong businessmen also fear a renewed flare-up of protests. Victor Li is one of them, head of the multi-billion dollar CK Asset Holding and son of tycoon legend Li Ka-Shing, Asia’s richest person for many years. Above all he wants stability and an environment in which the lives of all Hong Kongers continue to improve, he said. Li has already pledged his vote in Sunday’s election to John Lee, the designated head of government.
Kristin Shi-Kupfer’s fascination with China first began with an episode of MacGyver. This particular episode was about the 1989 democracy movement in Beijing and the June 4th massacre. “The MacGyver episode was a fictional story, of course, but the real-life background of the story grabbed me,” Shi-Kupfer says.
A few years later, Shi-Kupfer enrolled in sinology and political science at the University of Trier. She didn’t speak any Mandarin back then and had never been to China. “For many in this country, the language sounds a bit strange and it takes effort to replicate the sounds,” she says. She found it helpful to think of the language as a kind of melody.
Her studies, which included obligatory stays abroad, eventually took her to China. She spent two years in Shanghai and Kaifeng. “For some, it was too much; too many people, sounds, colors and smells. But it thrilled me,” she recalls of her first trip to Shanghai.
Already in the magister phase, she focused on traditional secret societies in China. Later, she wrote her doctoral thesis on spiritual, and religious groups. ” The term stands for various ideas, some of which originate from Buddhism and Christianity,” says Shi-Kupfer, who is a devout Christian herself. Even then, she says, these groups were actually banned. “To deal with the issue today would certainly be much more difficult,” she says. After all, it is now highly risky to practice one’s religion in China as an unregistered group.
During her doctoral studies, Shi-Kupfer also began to work as a journalist. Starting in 2008, she reported from Beijing for various media outlets. “As a journalist in China, I had the chance to be curious and get to know the country very deeply.” But in 2011, when the Hattingen native witnessed some of her friends being arrested in the wake of the protests at the time and the political situation in the country increasingly deteriorated, she decided to leave China. “I became cynical back then and had to get out,” she says. Back in Germany, she headed the Politics, Society and Media research department at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics) for seven years.
Shi-Kupfer has not traveled to China since 2019. “My husband and I used to go to China traditionally over New Year’s Eve to visit his family and our friends.” When she and her husband – journalist Shi Ming – will be able to travel to the People’s Republic again is still uncertain. They are currently unable to obtain visas. “We applied for the visas through an agency, so we don’t know whose fault it was,” she says. By now, she misses the city of Beijing and, even more, her friends there.
In October 2020, Shi-Kupfer moved back to the University of Trier as Professor of Contemporary Chinese Studies. At the Mercator Institute, she said, she did a lot of daily news and media work, and now she has more freedom to conduct research and teach. “I have always enjoyed teaching. This way I can pass something on.”
Her current research focuses on social media and media debates. Last year, for example, she published a paper analyzing discourse on artificial intelligence and ethics in China on two Chinese social media platforms.
” At present, I am researching how Chinese men and women outside China portray their identity on Twitter,” Shi-Kupfer describes one of her research projects. For example, she was interested in what issues matter to Chinese citizens living abroad. “Since I can’t go to China, unfortunately, I can at least talk to Chinese people abroad,” she says. Lisa Oder
Chinese scientists set up a meteorological monitoring station on Mount Everest.
For years, even decades, business in China was almost too good to be true for German managers. In recent decades, the People’s Republic has become the prime sales market and production location for Germany’s manufacturing companies. Without the rich profits from the Far East, their balance sheets would often look meager.
But the China dream could turn into a China nightmare. The zero-covid policy in particular gives companies a hard time. For three out of four companies surveyed, China’s investment appeal has waned, Christiane Kuehl reports on a new survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. One in four companies reportedly considers withdrawing investments from China. But is a major exodus really realistic when in some cases 30 to 40 percent of revenue is generated in the People’s Republic?
A new head of government will be elected in Hong Kong this weekend. The victory of the pro-Beijing candidate John Lee is considered certain. After all, there is no other candidate and the citizens are not allowed to vote. Marcel Grzanna profiles the former police officer: He is considered an “emotionless machine,” a technocrat who wants to create efficiency and will further transform Hong Kong into a police state.
In 2021, the rest of the world suffered under the Covid pandemic, while China was already recovering. But now the tables have turned. Many countries have begun to lift their measures, while China sinks into the Omicron wave. The economy suffers under the lockdowns, and there is a lot of uncertainty. China may be the last country to find its way out of the Covid pandemic, said Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China (EUCCC), on Thursday in Beijing during the presentation of a flash survey on China’s Covid policy.
It is a sobering realization. Wuttke emphasized that he does not expect China’s zero-covid policy to end any time soon. The survey shows that virtually all European companies are affected by it – and to a huge extent:
So it is no wonder that for 77 percent, China’s investment appeal has declined. In the sectors of education, aviation, primary energy and raw materials, the figure was as high as 100 percent – in other words, all companies that responded to the survey.
Many companies struggle with even the most basic tasks, according to the survey. One day, they don’t know if they’ll have enough staff to keep operations going – or if their worksites might suddenly shut down altogether.
During the presentation of the survey, it became clear that this uncertainty about the future weighs most heavily on the companies. Time and again, the chamber representatives addressed the issue. “We don’t know yet what damage zero-covid will do to the economy,” Wuttke said. “The predictability of the Chinese market has disappeared.” As a result, he said, China has lost one of its greatest strengths. “We are astonished by this. And we believe the Chinese government can do better,” Wuttke said.
The EUCCC intends to forward the survey results to the government. Wuttke is also in close contact with government agencies, such as the Ministry of Commerce. And they are certainly open for dialog. However, the company representatives do not know how much influence they really have. But one thing is clear to Wuttke: “Something has to happen.” According to the survey, 91 percent of the companies would prefer a greater focus on a vaccination campaign instead of endless testing. 75 percent stated they want a different Covid policy in general.
Many economists have already scaled down their growth expectations for China in 2022 thanks to Covid – and to the Ukraine crisis. The Swiss bank UBS now expects 4.2 percent – and no longer five percent, as it did at the beginning of the year. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 36.2 in April – well below the March figure and well below the threshold of 50 that signals expansion. 58 percent of the companies surveyed lowered their sales projections for 2022, with 15 percent even forecasting a decline of more than 20 percent.
The optimism of the past years is gone. This is why a certain figure is rising which, despite all the difficulties in the economic environment in recent years, has always remained stable in the single-digit percentage range: The proportion of companies considering pulling investments or simply ceasing them altogether in China. One in four companies reported considering such steps. “This is a clear contrast to previous years,” Wuttke stressed – and precisely owed to the uncertainty about the midterm future as well. After all, the government has so far failed to show any sign of escaping from its zero-covid policy. But the impatience of companies continues to grow, according to Wuttke.
And even if China’s production environment with its numerous industrial clusters, excellent infrastructure and large supplier networks is second to none, alternatives in Southeast Asia have other advantages. “Our board members are able to travel to Indonesia or other markets without any problems whatsoever.” That means they can personally inspect potential new locations. The consequence: If investments for China are shelved while plans for other countries proceed, some China factories may not be built at all.
Many German companies are currently working to find alternatives to their China business, Karl Haeusgen, President of the German Engineering Federation (VDMA), also said in an interview with the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung on Thursday. These are still mere considerations, Wuttke conceded. “But we say: If there are no changes, then we vote with our feet.”
Ted Hui still remembers John Lee and his situation reports to the Hong Kong parliament. The atmosphere was tense, “almost hostile“. At the time, in the second half of 2019, Security Chief Lee addressed the MPs, and Hui, who now lives in exile in Australia, was among them. Millions of people had taken to the streets at the time to protest a law that would allow Hong Kong citizens to be extradited to Chinese law enforcement agencies.
But the proposed law was only the straw that broke the camel’s back. At its core, the people wanted to defend their civil rights. They protested against the growing influence of the Chinese Communist Party on local politics. “We Democrats loudly urged Lee to take a stand on the accusations and the protesters’ demands. But Lee avoided any verbal confrontation with us, read out his text and left,” Hui told China.Table.
Everything points to this John Lee will be elected as Hong Kong’s new Chief Executive next Sunday. For one, he is the only candidate who runs to succeed retiring Carrie Lam and enjoys Beijing’s official support. Secondly, more than half of the 1,454 eligible voters have already publicly declared their support for Lee. He needs an absolute majority of 728 votes to win.
It is the first time that the election committee has met on this scale. And never before have its members so clearly represented the interests of Beijing’s central government. This is also due to the Election Committee’s new lineup of Hong Kong representatives to the National People’s Congress and its Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. This is a strictly pro-Beijing faction. All 300 eligible voters in this new sector have pledged their support to candidate Lee.
Beijing’s interests have been more focused than ever on stifling any resistance in the city since the 2019 mass protests. The introduction of the National Security Law two years ago provided the legal framework to criminalize and paralyze the democratic movement in Hong Kong. Lee’s election would politically underscore this development.
Lee is not regarded as an intellectual political visionary, but as a loyal technocrat who wants to create efficiency. “The Chinese government wants a rule of security forces for Hong Kong and needs someone who can handle the security forces. He has that,” says former MP Hui. “Lee is an emotionless machine. He is exactly what Beijing needs.”
Samuel Chu of the US-based Campaign for Hong Kong also believes Lee is the ideal representative for Beijing’s interests: “The chief executive role is no longer one that in any way represents or speaks for Hong Kongers’ interests and well-being. It makes perfect sense to put a [former] police [officer] in charge of a police state,” Chu told Voice of America.
Indeed, Lee seems destined for the job. He joined the civil service back in 1977 and climbed the career ladder, especially after 1997. In 2010, he was appointed Deputy Commissioner of Police and, two years later, Under Secretary for Security. In 2017, retiring Government Executive Carrie Lam appointed him as Secretary for Security. Last year, Lam also made him Chief Secretary for Administration in her government, making him number two in Hong Kong’s administrative hierarchy.
Maya Wang of Human Rights Watch expects restrictions on civil liberties to continue under Lee’s administration. “It’s clear that Beijing wants Lee to punish Hong Kong people for their perceived disobedience to Beijing,” she wrote in a statement to Voice of America. “Lee’s tenure [as Hong Kong’s second-highest political official] was marked by police brutality and a lack of accountability for the police officers who used excessive force during the 2019 protests.”
Last Friday, the 64-year-old formally vowed under Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini-constitution, to “fulfill the constitutional responsibility of legislation” if elected. Article 23 stipulates that “any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government” must be prohibited.
In a 44-page manifesto, Lee reveals plans for his term. He strives for a “results-oriented” approach to “increase the city’s competitiveness”. While critics complain about a lack of specifics, they give Lee credit for the fact that he has had little time since his candidacy in early April to outline a comprehensive policy program. As head of government, Lee will also have to advance the city’s development. Plans to restructure the administration and build the Northern Metropolis with millions of new apartments were bequeathed to him by his predecessor.
Lee must also drive the redevelopment of the education sector. The city has probably lost much of its appeal to talents from all over the world thanks to the erosion of civil rights. Within a few years, the city fell out of the top 20 in Reporters Without Borders’ press freedom ranking to 148th out of 180 (China.Table reported).
Several renowned Hong Kong businessmen also fear a renewed flare-up of protests. Victor Li is one of them, head of the multi-billion dollar CK Asset Holding and son of tycoon legend Li Ka-Shing, Asia’s richest person for many years. Above all he wants stability and an environment in which the lives of all Hong Kongers continue to improve, he said. Li has already pledged his vote in Sunday’s election to John Lee, the designated head of government.
Kristin Shi-Kupfer’s fascination with China first began with an episode of MacGyver. This particular episode was about the 1989 democracy movement in Beijing and the June 4th massacre. “The MacGyver episode was a fictional story, of course, but the real-life background of the story grabbed me,” Shi-Kupfer says.
A few years later, Shi-Kupfer enrolled in sinology and political science at the University of Trier. She didn’t speak any Mandarin back then and had never been to China. “For many in this country, the language sounds a bit strange and it takes effort to replicate the sounds,” she says. She found it helpful to think of the language as a kind of melody.
Her studies, which included obligatory stays abroad, eventually took her to China. She spent two years in Shanghai and Kaifeng. “For some, it was too much; too many people, sounds, colors and smells. But it thrilled me,” she recalls of her first trip to Shanghai.
Already in the magister phase, she focused on traditional secret societies in China. Later, she wrote her doctoral thesis on spiritual, and religious groups. ” The term stands for various ideas, some of which originate from Buddhism and Christianity,” says Shi-Kupfer, who is a devout Christian herself. Even then, she says, these groups were actually banned. “To deal with the issue today would certainly be much more difficult,” she says. After all, it is now highly risky to practice one’s religion in China as an unregistered group.
During her doctoral studies, Shi-Kupfer also began to work as a journalist. Starting in 2008, she reported from Beijing for various media outlets. “As a journalist in China, I had the chance to be curious and get to know the country very deeply.” But in 2011, when the Hattingen native witnessed some of her friends being arrested in the wake of the protests at the time and the political situation in the country increasingly deteriorated, she decided to leave China. “I became cynical back then and had to get out,” she says. Back in Germany, she headed the Politics, Society and Media research department at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics) for seven years.
Shi-Kupfer has not traveled to China since 2019. “My husband and I used to go to China traditionally over New Year’s Eve to visit his family and our friends.” When she and her husband – journalist Shi Ming – will be able to travel to the People’s Republic again is still uncertain. They are currently unable to obtain visas. “We applied for the visas through an agency, so we don’t know whose fault it was,” she says. By now, she misses the city of Beijing and, even more, her friends there.
In October 2020, Shi-Kupfer moved back to the University of Trier as Professor of Contemporary Chinese Studies. At the Mercator Institute, she said, she did a lot of daily news and media work, and now she has more freedom to conduct research and teach. “I have always enjoyed teaching. This way I can pass something on.”
Her current research focuses on social media and media debates. Last year, for example, she published a paper analyzing discourse on artificial intelligence and ethics in China on two Chinese social media platforms.
” At present, I am researching how Chinese men and women outside China portray their identity on Twitter,” Shi-Kupfer describes one of her research projects. For example, she was interested in what issues matter to Chinese citizens living abroad. “Since I can’t go to China, unfortunately, I can at least talk to Chinese people abroad,” she says. Lisa Oder
Chinese scientists set up a meteorological monitoring station on Mount Everest.
