The business climate surveys by the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (AHK) are a fixed date in the annual calendar of business in China. The German association is usually a bit more optimistic here than the EU chamber. Moreover, their demands are typically not quite as sharp. This year, however, it seems to be the other way around. While the EU Chamber still seemed remarkably positive last summer, the AHK has taken a turn into skeptical waters.
While companies continue to have a positive outlook, they show signs of exhaustion caused by the myriad of new problems on the market, analyzes Christiane Kuehl. At the top of the list of concerns are the entry barriers caused by Covid. However, those who share the hopes of the AHK that regulations will soon be lifted will most likely end up disappointed.
Another disappointment could also await in nuclear fusion research. It is true that China is catching up quickly in the hot race for the even hotter energy source thanks to exuberant funding and close scientific exchange with Europe, writes Nico Beckert. But neither Europe nor China can predict when nuclear fusion will actually produce electricity. After all, nuclear fusion is a technology whose marketability always seems to be quite some way off in the future. Nevertheless, the billions spent on research are a worthwhile investment. If nuclear fusion succeeds in the end, it will provide us with an abundance of emission-free power.
How do you positively present waning optimism? With a hybrid statement: “Business outlook positive – unequal treatment and localization challenge German companies in China” That’s the headline of this year’s business confidence survey of German companies operating in China by the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHK Greater China). “Realism replaced strong positivity,” the survey says. Euphoria is waning, but most companies generally expect business to remain positive. 96 percent want to stay in China, 71 percent want to invest more. On Tuesday, the AHK presented the survey data in Beijing.
But companies seem exhausted – by Covid restrictions, the politicization of business environments, and decoupling tendencies, especially between China and the US. “Companies are already reconsidering their business activities,” said Andreas Glunz, Managing Partner of KPMG, which organized and evaluated the survey in cooperation with AHK Greater China. A year ago, Glunz had still stated that optimism was as high as during the boom year 2018. This is in the past now.
But first, let’s look at business expectations: 60 percent of the companies surveyed expect revenue to increase in 2022, and 41 percent also expect more profit. This is only slightly less than in 2021 when 63 percent expected higher revenue and 48 percent more profit. At 10 and 17 percent respectively, even fewer companies expect revenue or profits to fall than in 2021 (then 14 and 22 percent). And 51 percent expect the situation in their sector to improve – down from 66 percent a year ago.
As in the previous year, China’s strict Covid travel restrictions rank among the three operational problems most frequently cited by companies (42 percent). The only thing that was even more frequently mentioned by Respondents was finding and retaining employees, as well as rising wages in the People’s Republic (49 percent each). It is striking that all of these concerns are directly related to human resources. According to Glunz, companies are already feeling the onset of an aging Chinese society. Some are already considering concepts for hiring older people after retirement age – at the age of 60 for men and even earlier for women.
Optimism among companies is also dwindling in their market estimates, Glunz says. “Opportunities are still out there. But if you look closer, the outlook is becoming less positive across all segments.” In other words, respondents see fewer opportunities for their companies compared to 2019. A few examples: In the current survey, 51 percent see opportunities in growing consumption on the domestic market. Two years ago, more than two-thirds still believed in this. 42 percent see opportunities in participating in Chinese innovation – down from 61 percent two years ago. There was also a drop of around 20 percent in the perception of opportunities in procurement, participation in digital technologies, or through the internationalization of Chinese companies.
The perception that foreign brands are in hot demand and bring an advantage over Chinese brands suffered the most. Only 39 percent believed this today, down from 65 percent two years ago: a drop of 26 percentage points. A trend toward purchasing and favoring Chinese brands has been observed, Glunz said. In fact, the consumer market has grown tougher for foreigners. Fashion trends and customer preferences are becoming more local.
Japan and South Korea are now far more popular in China than the West. At the same time, public sentiment is currently turning rapidly against foreign brands whenever they take a stand against human rights violations in Xinjiang, show Taiwan as a sovereign nation on maps, or feature the “wrong” types of models (China.Table reported).
Companies also see growing challenges in the regulatory environment. “Lack of equal treatment has become the biggest regulatory challenge for German business in China,” emphasized Clas Neumann, AHK President in Shanghai. 34 percent of companies listed this as one of their top three challenges – more than for any other concern. 31 percent are troubled over legal uncertainties. The biggest issue of 2021, restricted internet access, dropped down on the list of concerns.
A major problem for companies remains the lack of participation in government contracting in China. For years, interest groups such as the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AHK) and also the European Chamber of Commerce (EUCCC) have been calling unsuccessfully on Beijing to finally sign the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement. 42 percent of the companies surveyed that participated in public contracting observed favoritism toward Chinese competitors. They reported a lack of transparency, “buy-local” practices, and preferential treatment for state-owned enterprises, according to Neumann. “For a sustainable presence on the Chinese market, the German economy needs a clear signal in China that equality is part of the economic system.,” Neumann demanded.
In general, the issue of self-sufficiency is causing headaches for companies. President Xi Jinping is growing upset by China’s dependence on raw materials and preliminary products (China.Table reported). Added to the mix are brewing geopolitical tensions. Back in 2021, companies were already unsettled by the potential decoupling between China’s economy and the economies of the US and the rest of the world. According to the new survey, 55 percent predict negative decoupling effects. As a result, 30 percent already expect high costs for the restructuring of their supply chains.
So far, however, companies do not want to leave. On the contrary, they are apparently responding to the problems with even greater localization. 49 percent want to invest in new manufacturing plants, 47 percent in local research, 37 percent in automation, and 30 percent in digitizing their companies. Only 24 percent plan to invest less.
However, Clas Neumann says the trend, which the AHK calls “Localization 2.0,” is not just due to decoupling. “There are also strong forces emerging directly from the market, they may be even stronger.” So not just governments on both sides are to blame, but also overarching trends in the economy and among consumers.
Travel restrictions are also a factor. 38 percent of respondents now want to “become more local.” In other words, more strategic cooperation or even joint ventures with Chinese partners. 34 percent plan “more resilience” of their local supply chains. One-third of each wants to increase local development and adapt their products sold in China more to local demand. 57 percent claimed that a Chinese partner will improve market acceptance. Just under a third also want to extend the decision-making authority of local branches over German headquarters.
This shows that, despite all the challenges, China is still too important to lightly push the market to the backseat of one’s business activities. Companies instead prefer to look for new ways to deal with the problems somehow. Their commitment to the Chinese market “remains unwavering,” Neumann concluded. As far as travel restrictions are concerned, a slight improvement is at least expected in the spring, with more flights between China and Germany. Hope dies last.
Temperatures hotter than the inside of the sun. Hardly imaginable for ordinary people. For fusion scientists, they are part of everyday life. Recently, Chinese scientists successfully raised the plasma in their fusion reactor to 70 million degrees Celsius – and maintained this state for more than 17 minutes. Last May, they even reached a temperature of 120 million degrees, which could be maintained for 101 seconds. That sounds short, but it marks a breakthrough. Because it shows the viability of the new technology.
Like other countries, China wants to finally make the great dream of fusion power come true. This new form of power generation has been researched for more than 60 years. It promises power in abundance, without fossil fuels, without climate damage, without lasting nuclear waste. These are tempting prospects for a country like China, with its high dependence on coal-fired power and growing demand for power. The People’s Republic is therefore operating several experimental fusion reactors.
But so far, no scientific team has successfully extracted more power from a fusion reactor than was previously supplied to set the fusion processes in motion. However, the recent successes of Chinese scientists could soon change that.
European researchers see China on a promising path in fusion research. Sustaining fusion plasma for 1,000 seconds is an “impressive technological achievement,” Dr. Hartmut Zohm, Head of Tokamak Scenario Development at the German Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, told China.Table.
Volker Naulin, Head of Fusion Science Department in EUROfusion, also says, “Keeping a plasma stable for a longer period of time and at high temperatures is impressive.” EUROfusion is an association of European research bodies to consolidate European cooperation in fusion research.
But as remarkable as the results of the Chinese experiments sound, they should not be overestimated. After all, three conditions must be met to make plasma usable inside fusion reactors to generate power. The three parameters of temperature, plasma density, and confinement time must reach a certain level for the fusion fire to burn self-sustaining. The necessary temperature has already been reached by the Chinese. “For plasma density and confinement time, the Chinese colleagues are still far from the necessary values,” says Dr. Zohm of the Max Planck Institute. European researchers are already much further ahead with the three conditions, he adds.
Overall, Europe is still the leader in fusion research, according to the unanimous opinion of European scientists. Chinese colleagues are still “not quite at the level of the best institutes worldwide,” says Hartmut Zohm. The high temperatures and plasma stability that China’s scientists have recently achieved have also already been achieved in European experiments, says Tony Donné, Program Manager (CEO) at EUROfusion.
Europe also has an edge in the best “fuel” for fusion reactors. According to scientists, a mixture of deuterium and tritium holds great promise for powering future power-generating fusion reactors. It provides “the most energy at the easiest conditions,” says a spokesman for EUROfusion. So far, the so-called JET experiment in the United Kingdom is the only fusion experiment so far that uses a deuterium-tritium mixture, Donné said.
The JET experiment, in which more than 30 European research institutes are involved, has also achieved the highest power efficiency in the world. “The fusion energy gain achieved in these devices have not been matched anywhere else to date,” says Eurofusion’s Programme Manager. But even JET researchers have not yet reached the point where more power is gained than invested. This is the goal of ITER, an international test reactor in France, in which China, Russia, and the USA are also involved.
According to Volker Naulin, this also makes Europe “clearly the leader in fusion research“. But “China is catching up fast.” The People’s Republic is investing vast sums in research of the new technology. Unlike the rest of the world, China gives fusion energy “a very high priority for future power supply,” says Zohm of the Max Planck Institute. In Hefei, for example, a dedicated research campus has been established. There, technologies are being developed to “operate fusion machines economically and permanently,” Naulin says.
China is also planning to construct a demonstration reactor to show the technological viability of generating power from nuclear fusion. On the international level, this is planned only after the large-scale experiment ITER, says Zohm. However, the final decision on funding the Chinese demonstration reactor was only recently postponed, Naulin noted.
China would like to generate power from nuclear fusion as early as 2040, says Chinese plasma scientist Song Yuntao. Achieving this ambitious goal is “not ruled out“, says Zohm. After all, China is “investing a lot of money in this technology and is making rapid progress.” Exact predictions, however, are difficult. Especially in the field of nuclear fusion. In the past, scientists were convinced several times that they were on the verge of a major breakthrough. Tony Donné of EUROfusion considers the Chinese 2040 target as “a little optimistic“.
However, China is investing so massively in fusion research overall that the People’s Republic could soon overtake European researchers. “In three to four years, the research crown could lie elsewhere, namely in China,” says Naulin. In Europe, he says, the necessary political support is lacking. The EUROfusion scientist complains, “If you slack off now and don’t build a demonstration reactor, Europe will lose the necessary know-how.” That’s because while China is investing, funding is being cut in Europe. The budget for EUROfusion has been cut in recent years, Donné says.
In addition, fusion research is regarded as nuclear technology at the political level. As a result, it cannot receive funding from the EU Green Deal. Bureaucratic hurdles also impede research in Europe. Naulin points out that the ITER large-scale experiment was built “in accordance with safety standards that are required for a nuclear power plant.” However, Naulin does not consider this necessary. “It makes it more complicated and costly than it needs to be.” Generating power through fusion is comparatively safe: there is no chance of a meltdown as in a conventional nuclear power plant.
But China’s rise in fusion research is not only based on massive funding. There is an intense exchange in research. China’s excellent capabilities in nuclear fusion are also owed to “open scientific cooperation,” Naulin says.
“Europe and China still have a very active cooperation program,” confirms Tony Donné. For example, many of the fusion experiments have international advisory committees that include participants from China and Western countries. At the meetings, Chinese scientists also present their data openly, Donné says. “Our Chinese colleagues publish all their results and invite us to collaborate in their experiments,” Zohm of the Max Planck Institute also confirms.
But China currently seems to benefit more from the partnership. Naulin and Zohm explain that more knowledge is currently flowing to China than the other way around. This is not a cause for concern, however, and is due to Europe’s lead in the state of research. From the political level, however, less money is already provided for the exchange. “Those responsible have the feeling that the exchange is one-sided in favor of China,” says Volker Naulin.
However, a certain degree of competition and caution is definitely present in the Western-Chinese cooperation. “I would describe the relationship as friendly competition,” says Zohm. And Donné of EUROfusion adds that “when it comes to fusion technology in which we are working on technologies and components that might be strategic, we are more careful.” Meanwhile, when intellectual property issues are involved, EUROfusion has become more cautious about sharing details. Donné assumes that “on the Chinese side, they do the same” when it comes to intellectual property.
It is not yet clear whether China or Europe will be the first to successfully build the first commercially viable fusion power plant that will also generate power. The Europeans plan to present new results of a JET experiment on February 9. And the scientific community is eagerly awaiting the large-scale ITER experiment, which also has Chinese participation. After years of construction, the first ITER experiments are scheduled to launch in 2025.
However, almost all experts agree: In the short term, fusion energy will not be able to contribute to climate protection. But by the middle of the century, it could cover a part of the global power demand – if research goes according to plan.
Sinolytics is a European consulting and analysis company focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and concrete business activities in China.
Julia Haes has visions. For example, she would like to develop a risk monitor that helps German companies better assess uncertainties in their cooperation with China. “Using artificial intelligence, we aim to analyze political documents and media reports from China to identify decisions that are still just in the making,” explains Haes, who holds a doctorate in business administration and founded the China Institute for German Business in Munich last year.
Julia Haes is not an expert on AI, a political scientist, or a sinologist. But she is well-connected, always has the bigger picture in mind, and knows from her own experience what companies need. Even as a student, she worked as a marketing assistant at a training institute founded by her father. While setting up an international MBA program during her doctoral studies in St. Gallen, she kept the world in her focus.
As a consultant for international cooperation at the Free University of Berlin, she eventually came into contact with China and met sinologist Anja Blanke, who later brought her on board as a partner. “I learned this from my father: When he founded his company, he teamed up with a businessman and, being a lawyer, was an expert on the matter himself,” Julia Haes says. But her spouse also brings his share of expertise to the table: Her husband Klaus Muehlhahn is a sinology professor at the FU Berlin and, since 2020, president of Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen. On their trips to China, Julia Haes had the opportunity to establish contacts with individuals from business, science, and politics.
“Finiens” is the Latin word for “horizon”. That’s what Julia Haes called her first company, which she founded in 2015 to offer customized training programs for Chinese groups in Germany: Finiens Business Service. For five years, she put together training courses on a wide range of topics and found suitable tutors: From Industry 4.0 and antitrust law to robotics and autonomous driving to world cultural heritage. In 2020, Haes then had to put the project on hold due to pandemic-related travel restrictions. At the same time, her family moved from Berlin back home to Tutzing near Munich.
With the China Institute for German Business, she has now turned Finiens’ company concept around. Instead of Chinese groups coming to Germany, she now mentors German companies involved in China. “I was repeatedly approached by companies that urgently needed more China expertise,” she says, explaining her decision.
In addition to training and research, the China Institute for German Business will also offer consulting and networking services. The newsletter Chinapolitan has been published since November. It includes news from and about China, job offers from German companies, and Germany-wide event tips related to China. Together with her colleague Anja Blanke and her husband Klaus Muehlhahn, Julia Haes also discusses in her podcast “China Ungeschminkt” ranging from the real estate market to MeToo and from the Olympics to Taiwan.
Julia Haes is also working with Muehlhahn on the book “Hong Kong: Umkämpfte Metropole,” (Hong Kong: Contested Metropolis) which will be published in May. She also assisted her husband with his publication Making China Modern: From the Great Qing to XI Jinping. “My husband writes the first draft and I read it with a critical eye and ask questions. We already have a well-established writing process.”
Haes currently works almost exclusively from her home office and is also involved in the parents’ committee at the school attended by her three children: “I’m in the fortunate position of being able to shape my career as I see fit. For me, it’s also part of my job to share my talents with society,” she says. Janna Degener-Storr
According to official sources, 346 million Chinese have taken part in winter sports over the past six years. That would be one in four Chinese citizens. This figure raises doubts about whether “winter sports” actually means sports. The figure would be more realistic if snowball fights (or intensive snow shoveling?) were also considered winter sports.
The business climate surveys by the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (AHK) are a fixed date in the annual calendar of business in China. The German association is usually a bit more optimistic here than the EU chamber. Moreover, their demands are typically not quite as sharp. This year, however, it seems to be the other way around. While the EU Chamber still seemed remarkably positive last summer, the AHK has taken a turn into skeptical waters.
While companies continue to have a positive outlook, they show signs of exhaustion caused by the myriad of new problems on the market, analyzes Christiane Kuehl. At the top of the list of concerns are the entry barriers caused by Covid. However, those who share the hopes of the AHK that regulations will soon be lifted will most likely end up disappointed.
Another disappointment could also await in nuclear fusion research. It is true that China is catching up quickly in the hot race for the even hotter energy source thanks to exuberant funding and close scientific exchange with Europe, writes Nico Beckert. But neither Europe nor China can predict when nuclear fusion will actually produce electricity. After all, nuclear fusion is a technology whose marketability always seems to be quite some way off in the future. Nevertheless, the billions spent on research are a worthwhile investment. If nuclear fusion succeeds in the end, it will provide us with an abundance of emission-free power.
How do you positively present waning optimism? With a hybrid statement: “Business outlook positive – unequal treatment and localization challenge German companies in China” That’s the headline of this year’s business confidence survey of German companies operating in China by the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHK Greater China). “Realism replaced strong positivity,” the survey says. Euphoria is waning, but most companies generally expect business to remain positive. 96 percent want to stay in China, 71 percent want to invest more. On Tuesday, the AHK presented the survey data in Beijing.
But companies seem exhausted – by Covid restrictions, the politicization of business environments, and decoupling tendencies, especially between China and the US. “Companies are already reconsidering their business activities,” said Andreas Glunz, Managing Partner of KPMG, which organized and evaluated the survey in cooperation with AHK Greater China. A year ago, Glunz had still stated that optimism was as high as during the boom year 2018. This is in the past now.
But first, let’s look at business expectations: 60 percent of the companies surveyed expect revenue to increase in 2022, and 41 percent also expect more profit. This is only slightly less than in 2021 when 63 percent expected higher revenue and 48 percent more profit. At 10 and 17 percent respectively, even fewer companies expect revenue or profits to fall than in 2021 (then 14 and 22 percent). And 51 percent expect the situation in their sector to improve – down from 66 percent a year ago.
As in the previous year, China’s strict Covid travel restrictions rank among the three operational problems most frequently cited by companies (42 percent). The only thing that was even more frequently mentioned by Respondents was finding and retaining employees, as well as rising wages in the People’s Republic (49 percent each). It is striking that all of these concerns are directly related to human resources. According to Glunz, companies are already feeling the onset of an aging Chinese society. Some are already considering concepts for hiring older people after retirement age – at the age of 60 for men and even earlier for women.
Optimism among companies is also dwindling in their market estimates, Glunz says. “Opportunities are still out there. But if you look closer, the outlook is becoming less positive across all segments.” In other words, respondents see fewer opportunities for their companies compared to 2019. A few examples: In the current survey, 51 percent see opportunities in growing consumption on the domestic market. Two years ago, more than two-thirds still believed in this. 42 percent see opportunities in participating in Chinese innovation – down from 61 percent two years ago. There was also a drop of around 20 percent in the perception of opportunities in procurement, participation in digital technologies, or through the internationalization of Chinese companies.
The perception that foreign brands are in hot demand and bring an advantage over Chinese brands suffered the most. Only 39 percent believed this today, down from 65 percent two years ago: a drop of 26 percentage points. A trend toward purchasing and favoring Chinese brands has been observed, Glunz said. In fact, the consumer market has grown tougher for foreigners. Fashion trends and customer preferences are becoming more local.
Japan and South Korea are now far more popular in China than the West. At the same time, public sentiment is currently turning rapidly against foreign brands whenever they take a stand against human rights violations in Xinjiang, show Taiwan as a sovereign nation on maps, or feature the “wrong” types of models (China.Table reported).
Companies also see growing challenges in the regulatory environment. “Lack of equal treatment has become the biggest regulatory challenge for German business in China,” emphasized Clas Neumann, AHK President in Shanghai. 34 percent of companies listed this as one of their top three challenges – more than for any other concern. 31 percent are troubled over legal uncertainties. The biggest issue of 2021, restricted internet access, dropped down on the list of concerns.
A major problem for companies remains the lack of participation in government contracting in China. For years, interest groups such as the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (AHK) and also the European Chamber of Commerce (EUCCC) have been calling unsuccessfully on Beijing to finally sign the WTO Agreement on Government Procurement. 42 percent of the companies surveyed that participated in public contracting observed favoritism toward Chinese competitors. They reported a lack of transparency, “buy-local” practices, and preferential treatment for state-owned enterprises, according to Neumann. “For a sustainable presence on the Chinese market, the German economy needs a clear signal in China that equality is part of the economic system.,” Neumann demanded.
In general, the issue of self-sufficiency is causing headaches for companies. President Xi Jinping is growing upset by China’s dependence on raw materials and preliminary products (China.Table reported). Added to the mix are brewing geopolitical tensions. Back in 2021, companies were already unsettled by the potential decoupling between China’s economy and the economies of the US and the rest of the world. According to the new survey, 55 percent predict negative decoupling effects. As a result, 30 percent already expect high costs for the restructuring of their supply chains.
So far, however, companies do not want to leave. On the contrary, they are apparently responding to the problems with even greater localization. 49 percent want to invest in new manufacturing plants, 47 percent in local research, 37 percent in automation, and 30 percent in digitizing their companies. Only 24 percent plan to invest less.
However, Clas Neumann says the trend, which the AHK calls “Localization 2.0,” is not just due to decoupling. “There are also strong forces emerging directly from the market, they may be even stronger.” So not just governments on both sides are to blame, but also overarching trends in the economy and among consumers.
Travel restrictions are also a factor. 38 percent of respondents now want to “become more local.” In other words, more strategic cooperation or even joint ventures with Chinese partners. 34 percent plan “more resilience” of their local supply chains. One-third of each wants to increase local development and adapt their products sold in China more to local demand. 57 percent claimed that a Chinese partner will improve market acceptance. Just under a third also want to extend the decision-making authority of local branches over German headquarters.
This shows that, despite all the challenges, China is still too important to lightly push the market to the backseat of one’s business activities. Companies instead prefer to look for new ways to deal with the problems somehow. Their commitment to the Chinese market “remains unwavering,” Neumann concluded. As far as travel restrictions are concerned, a slight improvement is at least expected in the spring, with more flights between China and Germany. Hope dies last.
Temperatures hotter than the inside of the sun. Hardly imaginable for ordinary people. For fusion scientists, they are part of everyday life. Recently, Chinese scientists successfully raised the plasma in their fusion reactor to 70 million degrees Celsius – and maintained this state for more than 17 minutes. Last May, they even reached a temperature of 120 million degrees, which could be maintained for 101 seconds. That sounds short, but it marks a breakthrough. Because it shows the viability of the new technology.
Like other countries, China wants to finally make the great dream of fusion power come true. This new form of power generation has been researched for more than 60 years. It promises power in abundance, without fossil fuels, without climate damage, without lasting nuclear waste. These are tempting prospects for a country like China, with its high dependence on coal-fired power and growing demand for power. The People’s Republic is therefore operating several experimental fusion reactors.
But so far, no scientific team has successfully extracted more power from a fusion reactor than was previously supplied to set the fusion processes in motion. However, the recent successes of Chinese scientists could soon change that.
European researchers see China on a promising path in fusion research. Sustaining fusion plasma for 1,000 seconds is an “impressive technological achievement,” Dr. Hartmut Zohm, Head of Tokamak Scenario Development at the German Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, told China.Table.
Volker Naulin, Head of Fusion Science Department in EUROfusion, also says, “Keeping a plasma stable for a longer period of time and at high temperatures is impressive.” EUROfusion is an association of European research bodies to consolidate European cooperation in fusion research.
But as remarkable as the results of the Chinese experiments sound, they should not be overestimated. After all, three conditions must be met to make plasma usable inside fusion reactors to generate power. The three parameters of temperature, plasma density, and confinement time must reach a certain level for the fusion fire to burn self-sustaining. The necessary temperature has already been reached by the Chinese. “For plasma density and confinement time, the Chinese colleagues are still far from the necessary values,” says Dr. Zohm of the Max Planck Institute. European researchers are already much further ahead with the three conditions, he adds.
Overall, Europe is still the leader in fusion research, according to the unanimous opinion of European scientists. Chinese colleagues are still “not quite at the level of the best institutes worldwide,” says Hartmut Zohm. The high temperatures and plasma stability that China’s scientists have recently achieved have also already been achieved in European experiments, says Tony Donné, Program Manager (CEO) at EUROfusion.
Europe also has an edge in the best “fuel” for fusion reactors. According to scientists, a mixture of deuterium and tritium holds great promise for powering future power-generating fusion reactors. It provides “the most energy at the easiest conditions,” says a spokesman for EUROfusion. So far, the so-called JET experiment in the United Kingdom is the only fusion experiment so far that uses a deuterium-tritium mixture, Donné said.
The JET experiment, in which more than 30 European research institutes are involved, has also achieved the highest power efficiency in the world. “The fusion energy gain achieved in these devices have not been matched anywhere else to date,” says Eurofusion’s Programme Manager. But even JET researchers have not yet reached the point where more power is gained than invested. This is the goal of ITER, an international test reactor in France, in which China, Russia, and the USA are also involved.
According to Volker Naulin, this also makes Europe “clearly the leader in fusion research“. But “China is catching up fast.” The People’s Republic is investing vast sums in research of the new technology. Unlike the rest of the world, China gives fusion energy “a very high priority for future power supply,” says Zohm of the Max Planck Institute. In Hefei, for example, a dedicated research campus has been established. There, technologies are being developed to “operate fusion machines economically and permanently,” Naulin says.
China is also planning to construct a demonstration reactor to show the technological viability of generating power from nuclear fusion. On the international level, this is planned only after the large-scale experiment ITER, says Zohm. However, the final decision on funding the Chinese demonstration reactor was only recently postponed, Naulin noted.
China would like to generate power from nuclear fusion as early as 2040, says Chinese plasma scientist Song Yuntao. Achieving this ambitious goal is “not ruled out“, says Zohm. After all, China is “investing a lot of money in this technology and is making rapid progress.” Exact predictions, however, are difficult. Especially in the field of nuclear fusion. In the past, scientists were convinced several times that they were on the verge of a major breakthrough. Tony Donné of EUROfusion considers the Chinese 2040 target as “a little optimistic“.
However, China is investing so massively in fusion research overall that the People’s Republic could soon overtake European researchers. “In three to four years, the research crown could lie elsewhere, namely in China,” says Naulin. In Europe, he says, the necessary political support is lacking. The EUROfusion scientist complains, “If you slack off now and don’t build a demonstration reactor, Europe will lose the necessary know-how.” That’s because while China is investing, funding is being cut in Europe. The budget for EUROfusion has been cut in recent years, Donné says.
In addition, fusion research is regarded as nuclear technology at the political level. As a result, it cannot receive funding from the EU Green Deal. Bureaucratic hurdles also impede research in Europe. Naulin points out that the ITER large-scale experiment was built “in accordance with safety standards that are required for a nuclear power plant.” However, Naulin does not consider this necessary. “It makes it more complicated and costly than it needs to be.” Generating power through fusion is comparatively safe: there is no chance of a meltdown as in a conventional nuclear power plant.
But China’s rise in fusion research is not only based on massive funding. There is an intense exchange in research. China’s excellent capabilities in nuclear fusion are also owed to “open scientific cooperation,” Naulin says.
“Europe and China still have a very active cooperation program,” confirms Tony Donné. For example, many of the fusion experiments have international advisory committees that include participants from China and Western countries. At the meetings, Chinese scientists also present their data openly, Donné says. “Our Chinese colleagues publish all their results and invite us to collaborate in their experiments,” Zohm of the Max Planck Institute also confirms.
But China currently seems to benefit more from the partnership. Naulin and Zohm explain that more knowledge is currently flowing to China than the other way around. This is not a cause for concern, however, and is due to Europe’s lead in the state of research. From the political level, however, less money is already provided for the exchange. “Those responsible have the feeling that the exchange is one-sided in favor of China,” says Volker Naulin.
However, a certain degree of competition and caution is definitely present in the Western-Chinese cooperation. “I would describe the relationship as friendly competition,” says Zohm. And Donné of EUROfusion adds that “when it comes to fusion technology in which we are working on technologies and components that might be strategic, we are more careful.” Meanwhile, when intellectual property issues are involved, EUROfusion has become more cautious about sharing details. Donné assumes that “on the Chinese side, they do the same” when it comes to intellectual property.
It is not yet clear whether China or Europe will be the first to successfully build the first commercially viable fusion power plant that will also generate power. The Europeans plan to present new results of a JET experiment on February 9. And the scientific community is eagerly awaiting the large-scale ITER experiment, which also has Chinese participation. After years of construction, the first ITER experiments are scheduled to launch in 2025.
However, almost all experts agree: In the short term, fusion energy will not be able to contribute to climate protection. But by the middle of the century, it could cover a part of the global power demand – if research goes according to plan.
Sinolytics is a European consulting and analysis company focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and concrete business activities in China.
Julia Haes has visions. For example, she would like to develop a risk monitor that helps German companies better assess uncertainties in their cooperation with China. “Using artificial intelligence, we aim to analyze political documents and media reports from China to identify decisions that are still just in the making,” explains Haes, who holds a doctorate in business administration and founded the China Institute for German Business in Munich last year.
Julia Haes is not an expert on AI, a political scientist, or a sinologist. But she is well-connected, always has the bigger picture in mind, and knows from her own experience what companies need. Even as a student, she worked as a marketing assistant at a training institute founded by her father. While setting up an international MBA program during her doctoral studies in St. Gallen, she kept the world in her focus.
As a consultant for international cooperation at the Free University of Berlin, she eventually came into contact with China and met sinologist Anja Blanke, who later brought her on board as a partner. “I learned this from my father: When he founded his company, he teamed up with a businessman and, being a lawyer, was an expert on the matter himself,” Julia Haes says. But her spouse also brings his share of expertise to the table: Her husband Klaus Muehlhahn is a sinology professor at the FU Berlin and, since 2020, president of Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen. On their trips to China, Julia Haes had the opportunity to establish contacts with individuals from business, science, and politics.
“Finiens” is the Latin word for “horizon”. That’s what Julia Haes called her first company, which she founded in 2015 to offer customized training programs for Chinese groups in Germany: Finiens Business Service. For five years, she put together training courses on a wide range of topics and found suitable tutors: From Industry 4.0 and antitrust law to robotics and autonomous driving to world cultural heritage. In 2020, Haes then had to put the project on hold due to pandemic-related travel restrictions. At the same time, her family moved from Berlin back home to Tutzing near Munich.
With the China Institute for German Business, she has now turned Finiens’ company concept around. Instead of Chinese groups coming to Germany, she now mentors German companies involved in China. “I was repeatedly approached by companies that urgently needed more China expertise,” she says, explaining her decision.
In addition to training and research, the China Institute for German Business will also offer consulting and networking services. The newsletter Chinapolitan has been published since November. It includes news from and about China, job offers from German companies, and Germany-wide event tips related to China. Together with her colleague Anja Blanke and her husband Klaus Muehlhahn, Julia Haes also discusses in her podcast “China Ungeschminkt” ranging from the real estate market to MeToo and from the Olympics to Taiwan.
Julia Haes is also working with Muehlhahn on the book “Hong Kong: Umkämpfte Metropole,” (Hong Kong: Contested Metropolis) which will be published in May. She also assisted her husband with his publication Making China Modern: From the Great Qing to XI Jinping. “My husband writes the first draft and I read it with a critical eye and ask questions. We already have a well-established writing process.”
Haes currently works almost exclusively from her home office and is also involved in the parents’ committee at the school attended by her three children: “I’m in the fortunate position of being able to shape my career as I see fit. For me, it’s also part of my job to share my talents with society,” she says. Janna Degener-Storr
According to official sources, 346 million Chinese have taken part in winter sports over the past six years. That would be one in four Chinese citizens. This figure raises doubts about whether “winter sports” actually means sports. The figure would be more realistic if snowball fights (or intensive snow shoveling?) were also considered winter sports.
