The world is once again sorting itself into the blocs my generation grew up with. Europe as a junior partner of the US in the West against an East consisting of Russia and communist China – this seems familiar. The impression of this development was reinforced over the weekend during Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Washington.
The EU Commission president partly ignored the protectionist economic policies of the US in order to close ranks against China. Although Joe Biden did make some concessions on some trade issues, US policy is still fairly unfriendly to EU companies. However, it was China that was seen as the true competitor and rival during the talks, analyzes Eric Bonse. This will be even more true if it supplies weapons to Russia.
China’s close ties to Russia are also the biggest obstacle to the offered peace mediation with Ukraine. The situation was different in Saudi Arabia’s conflict with Iran. Washington was biased toward Riyadh. Therefore, it could not mediate. China, on the other hand, was truly neutral in the Middle East – and managed the resumption of talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, writes Joern Petring. However, the process does not show that China can mediate in Ukraine, but rather how crucial true neutrality is.
General Li Shangfu exemplifies China’s lack of neutrality toward Russia. He is the new Defense Minister of the People’s Republic – and as the top procurement officer for the People’s Liberation Army, he was a big fan of Russian armaments. Read our Heads section to learn more about Li’s excellent connections to Moscow.
The US and EU plan to cooperate even closer in the future against rivals such as China. Both sides want to work to “strengthen our economic security and national security”, announced US President Joe Biden and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after their meeting in Washington on Friday evening.
Biden and von der Leyen agreed that both sides should diversify their supply chains. They also want to extend barbs against market-distorting practices and economic coercion. Although the statement mentions China only once, Beijing is the prime target of the warnings.
The goals mentioned are not necessarily new. What is remarkable now, however, is that they are presented together. After all, there are enough tensions of their own between Brussels and Washington. Numerous trade issues remain unresolved.
The rapprochement agreed upon by Biden and von der Leyen in the dispute over the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its massive US subsidies for eco-friendly technologies also ultimately helps to form a front against Beijing. The US government and the EU Commission now want to swiftly sign an agreement on critical minerals that would grant European battery companies access to IRA EV subsidies.
So now there is a visible closing of ranks. The Europeans have so far avoided taking Washington’s side in the superpower struggle with Beijing for the sake of economic interests. However, faced with an aggressive neighbor, Russia, the EU is increasingly seeking closer ties with its transatlantic ally. Bernd Lange, chair of the Committee on International Trade in the European Parliament, is already warning of an “anti-China coalition” that could lead to a “stronger bloc formation” to the detriment of all.
Von der Leyen does not go as far as Washington regarding talks about decoupling from China. Like the German government, she prefers the term “de-risking” – that is, reducing dependencies on China.
In their statement, however, she and Biden announced closer cooperation to further prevent the outflow of sensitive technologies that could strengthen the military and intelligence capabilities of strategic rivals. To this end, both sides plan, on the one hand, to tighten up the already existing controls on dual-use exports, foreign direct investment and research cooperation.
The EU and the USA also want to create new instruments. The statement mentions explicitly so-called outbound investments. The US government wants to introduce a new tool this year to make it more difficult for domestic companies to invest in security-relevant sectors in China. Washington is urging the Europeans to do the same.
The deliberations in the EU Commission and the German government are still at an early stage. But there are many indications that the EU Commission will propose a monitoring system for such outbound investments before the end of the year. According to high-ranking EU circles, the aim is to prevent European companies from circumventing export controls for dual-use goods by building factories in the destination country.
Recently, the Europeans have been toeing Washington’s line on other related issues as well. For example, the Dutch government has announced plans for new restrictions on the export of semiconductor technology in order to protect national security. Specifically, this involves the Dutch company ASML and so-called DUV lithography.
The EU country thus joins a US initiative to restrict exports of chips and semiconductors to China. And the US government is pushing for further steps, according to a Bloomberg report. The Netherlands is said to be involved as well. According to the report, the plans will be announced in April at the earliest.
Whether the EU would join in possible sanctions against China in connection with the Ukraine war remains open. Biden and von der Leyen said at their meeting in Washington that they wanted to take stronger action against Russia’s supporters. Biden addressed concerns that China could support Russia with weapons. In such a case, the US is considering sanctions against China. Germany and the EU could follow suit – although Germany in particular will probably find it hard to impose sanctions.
The accusation that China is providing “lethal support” to Russia was raised by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. So far, however, the details Washington wanted to provide on the matter have remained vague. The EU has already imposed punitive measures on Iran for evading sanctions. The matter would be much more complex with China, however.
Brussels plans to announce an important step towards greater independence from China this week: On Tuesday, the EU Commission will present the Critical Raw Materials Act. By 2030, the capacities for the supply chains of strategically important raw materials within the EU are to be significantly increased.
The Commission aims to cover ten percent of the EU’s demand from its own mining operations in 2030, 40 percent from local processing and 15 percent from EU recycling capacities. In addition, the EU is to obtain no more than 70 percent of its annual requirements for a strategic raw material from a single non-EU country in 2030. This is intended to reduce the currently very high unilateral dependencies, especially on China. Eric Bonse/Amelie Richter
China’s Ukraine peace plan was met with skepticism in the West in recent weeks. But in another part of the world, Beijing has now scored a diplomatic coup without question.
The news came seemingly out of nowhere just before the weekend: The longtime enemies Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to work on normalizing their relations. This was made possible by China’s mediation. Beijing has shown that it understands how quiet diplomacy works.
The three foreign ministers met for five days in the Chinese capital last week without it being on the official visit agenda. On Friday, they signed an agreement. Iran and Saudi Arabia are reaching out to each other again after a seven-year ice age. As a first step, a meeting of the foreign ministers of the hostile states was agreed upon. In addition, the embassies are to reopen within two months.
Even if it is unclear whether the easing will last – China is proving that it is capable of breaking diplomatic ice. China’s top foreign policy official Wang Yi immediately made clear how proud Beijing is of its achievement: “This is a victory for dialogue and peace,” he said, according to a statement from Beijing’s Foreign Ministry already circulating late Friday night.
Indeed, it is good news that the region’s two most powerful states are talking again. Riyadh cut official contacts with Tehran in January 2016 in response to an attack by Iranian protesters on the Saudi embassy in Iran. The protests were triggered by Saudi Arabia’s execution of prominent Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. The two states also took out their rivalry through military conflicts in the region in past years, such as in Yemen. Washington failed to reach an agreement.
But can lessons be drawn from the now-achieved success for a possible end to the war in Ukraine? There are parallels: Two years ago, China presented a peace plan for the Middle East: “Initiative on Achieving Security and Stability in the Middle East” was the title of the five-point plan. Its formulation was similarly vague as the Ukraine paper now
Nevertheless, the starting position differs: China was an ideal mediator for Iran and Saudi Arabia because it maintains similar relations with both states. Both countries are primarily economic partners for Beijing. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran supply oil. This helps China diversify its energy supply.
Both are crucial partners in the New Silk Road. Beijing officially wants to be understood as neutral in the Ukraine crisis. Verbally, however, it has repeatedly backed Russia – and has, above all, stood against the USA. Wang Yi has just been to Moscow, and a visit to Ukraine is still not in sight.
On Friday, China’s top diplomat immediately pre-empted expected calls from the West to step up the pace in the Ukraine crisis in a similar way. He said the Ukraine issue was not “the only problem,” adding there were many other issues requiring the international community’s attention. The now-signed agreement sends “a clear signal to the current turbulent world,” he said. China wants to continue to play a constructive role in the “hot issues,” he said.
The message behind it: China will not only play a more active role in the Middle East in the future. However, Beijing will focus its attention on crises it itself considers important, and not the West. In their commentaries over the weekend, the Chinese state media left no doubt that China is positioning itself as an alternative force for order to Washington. The tenor was that, while the US is wreaking havoc in the world with arms shipments and wars, China is providing a counterweight with skillful diplomacy.
After the agreement became known, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stressed that China had “no selfish interest” in the region – but, in fact, the People’s Republic obtains 40 percent of its oil and gas from there. China has “no intention to and will not seek to fill a so-called vacuum in a geostrategic competition or put up exclusive blocs,” the foreign office spokesman stressed.
John Kirby, the spokesman for the National Security Council, said the US had been “aware of the talks” but had played no role in them. Washington has not been neutral in the conflict and thus has lost its role as a mediator, said Trita Parsi, Vice President of the US think tank Quincy Institute and founder of the nongovernmental organization National Iranian American Council. “China did not take sides between Saudi and Iran, has worked very hard to not get dragged into their conflict and, as a result, could play a peacemaking role,” Parsi wrote on Twitter.
Sina Toossi, a Senior Fellow at the Washington think tank Center for International Policy summed it up to the Arabic television station Al Jazeera: “This is a broader sign of the changing global order.” The US era as a global superpower without challengers is ending, Toossi said. With a stronger China, an “alternative has now emerged.” Contributed by Frank Sieren
China’s new government is in place. The new Premier Li Qiang essentially keeps the ministers of his predecessor. However, he has appointed four new vice premiers:
Li made the following new appointments:
The following State Council members retained their positions:
Also remaining in office (selections): He Rong (Justice), Qin Gang (Foreign Affairs), Jin Zhuanglong (Industry and Information Technology), Wang Zhigang (Science and Technology), Wang Wentao (Commerce).
There is only one female member of the State Council, Shen Yiqin, 63. Women are particularly poorly represented in the new cabinet. Previously, there was usually at least one female vice premier. fin
The new Chinese Defense Minister is General Li Shangfu 李尚福. Li comes from the red nobility of the CP, enjoys the confidence of ruler Xi Jinping, and has the best relations with Russia. He previously headed the Equipment and Armament Department of the Central Military Commission, or EDD (中央军委装备发展部). In that post, he purchased several Russian weapons systems for China’s air force.
Li has been subject to US sanctions since 2018 because of these orders. The reason for these sanctions was Russia’s interference in the 2016 US election (not the 2014 annexation of Crimea, there was a different sanctions list for that). The target was Russian arms players – and their customers. Thus, the equipment department came into focus.
Li’s preference for sophisticated air force equipment is related to his background. He studied aerospace engineering at the National University of Defense Technology 中国人民解放军国防科技大学 in Changsha, and his career involved space defense. He has been a general since 2006. In 2013, he became the Chief of the armament department of the People’s Liberation Army 中国人民解放军总装备部.
As Xi Jinping’s preferred candidate, he moved up to the Central Military Commission in 2017. The body that controls the People’s Liberation Army. So, Li was already one of the most powerful military officers in the country.
General Li comes from the communist nobility. His father was Li Shaozhu (1911-1995), a General in the People’s Republic Railway Forces. The elder Li was a participant in the Long March, the Communist Party’s great civil war myth.
Father Li’s heroic deeds included cutting a rail line through rough northern terrain in the early 1950s to transport troops to fight the United States in the Korean War. Later, he organized the construction of a whole series of other strategically important rail lines. What air supremacy is to the son, the rail network was to the father.
The younger Li already had impressive commission memberships to his name before he also received the government post. Not only is he a member of the party’s Central Military Commission, but since last year he has also been a member of the Central Committee.
His orders of Russian weapons as the top procurement executive involve several notorious systems, each of which has also been the subject of discussion in other contexts:
He became known to the public starting in 2007 during his time as Head of the Xichang missile launch site. Among other things, he successfully launched China’s first lunar probe, Chang’e 1, into orbit and regularly reported on manned launches toward the Chinese space station. Finn Mayer-Kuckuk
The world is once again sorting itself into the blocs my generation grew up with. Europe as a junior partner of the US in the West against an East consisting of Russia and communist China – this seems familiar. The impression of this development was reinforced over the weekend during Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Washington.
The EU Commission president partly ignored the protectionist economic policies of the US in order to close ranks against China. Although Joe Biden did make some concessions on some trade issues, US policy is still fairly unfriendly to EU companies. However, it was China that was seen as the true competitor and rival during the talks, analyzes Eric Bonse. This will be even more true if it supplies weapons to Russia.
China’s close ties to Russia are also the biggest obstacle to the offered peace mediation with Ukraine. The situation was different in Saudi Arabia’s conflict with Iran. Washington was biased toward Riyadh. Therefore, it could not mediate. China, on the other hand, was truly neutral in the Middle East – and managed the resumption of talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, writes Joern Petring. However, the process does not show that China can mediate in Ukraine, but rather how crucial true neutrality is.
General Li Shangfu exemplifies China’s lack of neutrality toward Russia. He is the new Defense Minister of the People’s Republic – and as the top procurement officer for the People’s Liberation Army, he was a big fan of Russian armaments. Read our Heads section to learn more about Li’s excellent connections to Moscow.
The US and EU plan to cooperate even closer in the future against rivals such as China. Both sides want to work to “strengthen our economic security and national security”, announced US President Joe Biden and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after their meeting in Washington on Friday evening.
Biden and von der Leyen agreed that both sides should diversify their supply chains. They also want to extend barbs against market-distorting practices and economic coercion. Although the statement mentions China only once, Beijing is the prime target of the warnings.
The goals mentioned are not necessarily new. What is remarkable now, however, is that they are presented together. After all, there are enough tensions of their own between Brussels and Washington. Numerous trade issues remain unresolved.
The rapprochement agreed upon by Biden and von der Leyen in the dispute over the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its massive US subsidies for eco-friendly technologies also ultimately helps to form a front against Beijing. The US government and the EU Commission now want to swiftly sign an agreement on critical minerals that would grant European battery companies access to IRA EV subsidies.
So now there is a visible closing of ranks. The Europeans have so far avoided taking Washington’s side in the superpower struggle with Beijing for the sake of economic interests. However, faced with an aggressive neighbor, Russia, the EU is increasingly seeking closer ties with its transatlantic ally. Bernd Lange, chair of the Committee on International Trade in the European Parliament, is already warning of an “anti-China coalition” that could lead to a “stronger bloc formation” to the detriment of all.
Von der Leyen does not go as far as Washington regarding talks about decoupling from China. Like the German government, she prefers the term “de-risking” – that is, reducing dependencies on China.
In their statement, however, she and Biden announced closer cooperation to further prevent the outflow of sensitive technologies that could strengthen the military and intelligence capabilities of strategic rivals. To this end, both sides plan, on the one hand, to tighten up the already existing controls on dual-use exports, foreign direct investment and research cooperation.
The EU and the USA also want to create new instruments. The statement mentions explicitly so-called outbound investments. The US government wants to introduce a new tool this year to make it more difficult for domestic companies to invest in security-relevant sectors in China. Washington is urging the Europeans to do the same.
The deliberations in the EU Commission and the German government are still at an early stage. But there are many indications that the EU Commission will propose a monitoring system for such outbound investments before the end of the year. According to high-ranking EU circles, the aim is to prevent European companies from circumventing export controls for dual-use goods by building factories in the destination country.
Recently, the Europeans have been toeing Washington’s line on other related issues as well. For example, the Dutch government has announced plans for new restrictions on the export of semiconductor technology in order to protect national security. Specifically, this involves the Dutch company ASML and so-called DUV lithography.
The EU country thus joins a US initiative to restrict exports of chips and semiconductors to China. And the US government is pushing for further steps, according to a Bloomberg report. The Netherlands is said to be involved as well. According to the report, the plans will be announced in April at the earliest.
Whether the EU would join in possible sanctions against China in connection with the Ukraine war remains open. Biden and von der Leyen said at their meeting in Washington that they wanted to take stronger action against Russia’s supporters. Biden addressed concerns that China could support Russia with weapons. In such a case, the US is considering sanctions against China. Germany and the EU could follow suit – although Germany in particular will probably find it hard to impose sanctions.
The accusation that China is providing “lethal support” to Russia was raised by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. So far, however, the details Washington wanted to provide on the matter have remained vague. The EU has already imposed punitive measures on Iran for evading sanctions. The matter would be much more complex with China, however.
Brussels plans to announce an important step towards greater independence from China this week: On Tuesday, the EU Commission will present the Critical Raw Materials Act. By 2030, the capacities for the supply chains of strategically important raw materials within the EU are to be significantly increased.
The Commission aims to cover ten percent of the EU’s demand from its own mining operations in 2030, 40 percent from local processing and 15 percent from EU recycling capacities. In addition, the EU is to obtain no more than 70 percent of its annual requirements for a strategic raw material from a single non-EU country in 2030. This is intended to reduce the currently very high unilateral dependencies, especially on China. Eric Bonse/Amelie Richter
China’s Ukraine peace plan was met with skepticism in the West in recent weeks. But in another part of the world, Beijing has now scored a diplomatic coup without question.
The news came seemingly out of nowhere just before the weekend: The longtime enemies Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to work on normalizing their relations. This was made possible by China’s mediation. Beijing has shown that it understands how quiet diplomacy works.
The three foreign ministers met for five days in the Chinese capital last week without it being on the official visit agenda. On Friday, they signed an agreement. Iran and Saudi Arabia are reaching out to each other again after a seven-year ice age. As a first step, a meeting of the foreign ministers of the hostile states was agreed upon. In addition, the embassies are to reopen within two months.
Even if it is unclear whether the easing will last – China is proving that it is capable of breaking diplomatic ice. China’s top foreign policy official Wang Yi immediately made clear how proud Beijing is of its achievement: “This is a victory for dialogue and peace,” he said, according to a statement from Beijing’s Foreign Ministry already circulating late Friday night.
Indeed, it is good news that the region’s two most powerful states are talking again. Riyadh cut official contacts with Tehran in January 2016 in response to an attack by Iranian protesters on the Saudi embassy in Iran. The protests were triggered by Saudi Arabia’s execution of prominent Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. The two states also took out their rivalry through military conflicts in the region in past years, such as in Yemen. Washington failed to reach an agreement.
But can lessons be drawn from the now-achieved success for a possible end to the war in Ukraine? There are parallels: Two years ago, China presented a peace plan for the Middle East: “Initiative on Achieving Security and Stability in the Middle East” was the title of the five-point plan. Its formulation was similarly vague as the Ukraine paper now
Nevertheless, the starting position differs: China was an ideal mediator for Iran and Saudi Arabia because it maintains similar relations with both states. Both countries are primarily economic partners for Beijing. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran supply oil. This helps China diversify its energy supply.
Both are crucial partners in the New Silk Road. Beijing officially wants to be understood as neutral in the Ukraine crisis. Verbally, however, it has repeatedly backed Russia – and has, above all, stood against the USA. Wang Yi has just been to Moscow, and a visit to Ukraine is still not in sight.
On Friday, China’s top diplomat immediately pre-empted expected calls from the West to step up the pace in the Ukraine crisis in a similar way. He said the Ukraine issue was not “the only problem,” adding there were many other issues requiring the international community’s attention. The now-signed agreement sends “a clear signal to the current turbulent world,” he said. China wants to continue to play a constructive role in the “hot issues,” he said.
The message behind it: China will not only play a more active role in the Middle East in the future. However, Beijing will focus its attention on crises it itself considers important, and not the West. In their commentaries over the weekend, the Chinese state media left no doubt that China is positioning itself as an alternative force for order to Washington. The tenor was that, while the US is wreaking havoc in the world with arms shipments and wars, China is providing a counterweight with skillful diplomacy.
After the agreement became known, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stressed that China had “no selfish interest” in the region – but, in fact, the People’s Republic obtains 40 percent of its oil and gas from there. China has “no intention to and will not seek to fill a so-called vacuum in a geostrategic competition or put up exclusive blocs,” the foreign office spokesman stressed.
John Kirby, the spokesman for the National Security Council, said the US had been “aware of the talks” but had played no role in them. Washington has not been neutral in the conflict and thus has lost its role as a mediator, said Trita Parsi, Vice President of the US think tank Quincy Institute and founder of the nongovernmental organization National Iranian American Council. “China did not take sides between Saudi and Iran, has worked very hard to not get dragged into their conflict and, as a result, could play a peacemaking role,” Parsi wrote on Twitter.
Sina Toossi, a Senior Fellow at the Washington think tank Center for International Policy summed it up to the Arabic television station Al Jazeera: “This is a broader sign of the changing global order.” The US era as a global superpower without challengers is ending, Toossi said. With a stronger China, an “alternative has now emerged.” Contributed by Frank Sieren
China’s new government is in place. The new Premier Li Qiang essentially keeps the ministers of his predecessor. However, he has appointed four new vice premiers:
Li made the following new appointments:
The following State Council members retained their positions:
Also remaining in office (selections): He Rong (Justice), Qin Gang (Foreign Affairs), Jin Zhuanglong (Industry and Information Technology), Wang Zhigang (Science and Technology), Wang Wentao (Commerce).
There is only one female member of the State Council, Shen Yiqin, 63. Women are particularly poorly represented in the new cabinet. Previously, there was usually at least one female vice premier. fin
The new Chinese Defense Minister is General Li Shangfu 李尚福. Li comes from the red nobility of the CP, enjoys the confidence of ruler Xi Jinping, and has the best relations with Russia. He previously headed the Equipment and Armament Department of the Central Military Commission, or EDD (中央军委装备发展部). In that post, he purchased several Russian weapons systems for China’s air force.
Li has been subject to US sanctions since 2018 because of these orders. The reason for these sanctions was Russia’s interference in the 2016 US election (not the 2014 annexation of Crimea, there was a different sanctions list for that). The target was Russian arms players – and their customers. Thus, the equipment department came into focus.
Li’s preference for sophisticated air force equipment is related to his background. He studied aerospace engineering at the National University of Defense Technology 中国人民解放军国防科技大学 in Changsha, and his career involved space defense. He has been a general since 2006. In 2013, he became the Chief of the armament department of the People’s Liberation Army 中国人民解放军总装备部.
As Xi Jinping’s preferred candidate, he moved up to the Central Military Commission in 2017. The body that controls the People’s Liberation Army. So, Li was already one of the most powerful military officers in the country.
General Li comes from the communist nobility. His father was Li Shaozhu (1911-1995), a General in the People’s Republic Railway Forces. The elder Li was a participant in the Long March, the Communist Party’s great civil war myth.
Father Li’s heroic deeds included cutting a rail line through rough northern terrain in the early 1950s to transport troops to fight the United States in the Korean War. Later, he organized the construction of a whole series of other strategically important rail lines. What air supremacy is to the son, the rail network was to the father.
The younger Li already had impressive commission memberships to his name before he also received the government post. Not only is he a member of the party’s Central Military Commission, but since last year he has also been a member of the Central Committee.
His orders of Russian weapons as the top procurement executive involve several notorious systems, each of which has also been the subject of discussion in other contexts:
He became known to the public starting in 2007 during his time as Head of the Xichang missile launch site. Among other things, he successfully launched China’s first lunar probe, Chang’e 1, into orbit and regularly reported on manned launches toward the Chinese space station. Finn Mayer-Kuckuk
