At the end of January, a bipartisan bill was introduced in the US that could also severely affect global trade. After 25 years, China might lose its PNTR status soon – the US is on the verge of ending the People’s Republic’s preferential trade status. If revoked, the US would see China on the same economic level as Iran, North Korea and Belarus. An outcast trading partner. It would be one of the most radical changes in global trade in recent decades. Marcel Grzanna has written down the possible consequences of this step.
Our second analysis looks at a cultural project that is dear to Xi Jinping’s heart. The idea is to preserve the “golden seeds” of Chinese culture in four archives spread across China “so that they can be passed on to future generations.” This “gene bank of Chinese culture” is Xi Jinping’s way of promoting the unification of classical and Marxist heritage. The Communist Party presents itself as the rightful guardian of tradition – and uses historiography as an instrument of political power, writes Andrew Stokols.
The possible withdrawal of China’s PNTR status after 25 years is only one bill away. Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) is a legal term in the United States for free trade with a foreign country. At the initiative of President Donald Trump, numerous Republican and Democratic MPs and senators want to create the legal basis for the United States to end PNTR with the second-largest economy in just a few weeks. PNTR status guarantees most countries in the world easy access to the US market. Revoking it would make China an outcast trading partner.
Business associations such as the Federation of German Industries (BDI) and the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) expressed concern. “If the USA were to withdraw China’s PNTR status, this would have not only dramatic consequences for Chinese exporters with US business, but also significant consequences for global trade and the German economy, which is closely intertwined with both countries,” says Volker Treier, Head of Foreign Trade at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK). Investments would be reconsidered even more than before, possibly leading to relocations or even a withdrawal from China.
The shockwaves of a withdrawal would be felt all over the world. Treier fears that Chinese overcapacity would be redirected to the European market – with increased competitive pressure for companies on the continent. “This would also strain trade relations between China and the EU,” he says. Although the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs has declined to comment on “domestic American affairs,” it says it is “naturally” following developments.
“The initiative highlights the growing political pressure in the USA to reduce economic dependencies on China and protect strategic supply chains,” says economic expert Jasper Lüke from the SME association BVMW. “In addition, an escalating trade conflict could slow global economic growth, worsen the investment climate and thus weaken demand in the European domestic market,” warns Lüke. The only countries without PNTR status are Iran, North Korea and Belarus. However, their economic significance is marginal. China, on the other hand, is an indispensable buyer and supplier for many countries and regions.
German companies that are closely integrated into global supply chains, including the USA and China, would face particular problems. “Higher tariffs and possible counter-sanctions could complicate trade between these two economic powers, leading to supply bottlenecks, rising production costs and uncertainty for German companies,” says Lüke.
Many German companies reject protectionist measures because they tend to create uncertainty and make long-term planning more difficult. This is particularly true for those companies that operate production sites in China. However, even those that appear to benefit from stricter conditions for Chinese competitors when exporting from Europe to the USA would suffer from an escalation of trade conflicts. International supply chains would be particularly affected, as China plays a central role in many value-creation processes. Sectors such as mechanical engineering, the automotive industry and electrical engineering would likely face higher costs and less reliability.
The “Restoring Trade Fairness Act,” introduced in January 2025, is an expression of how political efforts in the US to end China’s PNTR status are taking shape. “China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status has enriched the Chinese Communist Party while costing the United States millions of jobs,” said lead Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, explaining the legislative initiative. Cotton believes that the comprehensive repeal and reform of trade relations between the USA and China would protect American workers, improve US national security and end the influence of the Chinese Communists on the American economy.
It has been over 25 years since the then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright described granting PNTR status to China as “the right decision for America.” The Permanent Normal Trade Relations ultimately paved the way for the People’s Republic to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), which facilitated its steep rise to become the second-largest economy. However, despite US companies earning a lot of money with and in China for many years, US policymakers are now disillusioned with the relationship.
Experts mostly agree about the implications the PNTR withdrawal would have for the already ailing global trade system. It would destabilize it further and the WTO could also emerge weakened from the conflict, believes DIHK foreign trade expert Treier. The WTO is regarded as the guardian of global trade rules. It promotes an open, stable and predictable market environment and its authority is an important support for internationally active companies.
If the WTO loses influence, others will have to step in. Wolfgang Niedermark, Managing Director of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), believes the EU has an obligation. According to Niedermark, it is essential “that the EU Commission uses its options to counteract the erosion of the rules-based trading system.”
The Chinese ambassador to the World Trade Organization, Li Chenggang, spoke on Tuesday of American unilateralism, which could “topple the rules-based trading system.” Li stressed that the WTO must retain its voice.
Nestled at the foot of Yanshang Mountain north of Beijing near the capital’s central axis is the National Archives of Publications and Culture (NAPC). Commissioned by the Central Propaganda Department, it is under the highest state patronage. “I personally approved this project and have been paying close attention to it,” Xi Jinping remarked on an inspection tour in June 2023.
A September 2023 article published in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s leading theoretical journal, described the project as a “seed bank of continuous Chinese civilization” protecting “golden seeds of culture hidden in famous mountains, passed onto future generations” and a “seed gene bank of Chinese culture.” The terms are meant symbolically, as books, cultural assets and documents are collected and stored in the “seed vault” instead of actual plant seeds.
There are some interesting parallels between the NAPC as the “seed vault” of the Chinese civilization and the “Svalbard Global Seed Vault” in Spitsbergen, Norway, which was completed in 2008. Located in a remote mountainous region of Norway and designed by Peter Soderman, Svalbard was conceived of as securely storing the seeds of global plant species to preserve crop diversity, amidst climate change and growing threats to global species diversity.
The Svalbard vault opened in 2008 and is run by the Norwegian government but conceived as a “global vault” into which any country can deposit seeds. Meanwhile, the NAPC is explicitly intended to store the “cultural seeds” of Chinese civilization and thus is linked to national imaginaries of Chinese civilization as opposed to global ones.
Since entering office, Xi has promoted the term “cultural confidence,” or wenhua zixin 文化自信, as part of the “four confidences.” – confidence in the path, theory, system, and culture (of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”). Under Xi, the Party has taken ever greater interest in what Elizabeth Perry has termed “cultural governance,” or the “deployment of symbolic resources as an instrument of political authority…in a manner that underscores the distinctively ‘Chinese’ character of the political system.”
The National Archives of Publications and Culture is a nationwide “1+3 system” comprising the main branch in Beijing plus satellite branches spread across the four cardinal directions of China: Guangzhou in the South, Hangzhou in the East, Xi’an in the West, and Beijing in the North. The Beijing branch of the NAPC was built on the site of an abandoned quarry, “turning waste into treasure, realizing the dual benefits of humanity and nature, and implementing the development concept of the new era.”
Beneath the built-up area of 380,000 square meters is a 55,000 square-meter underground archive. The remote location of each branch of the NAPC indicates the core function is “preservation” and “safeguarding,” while public visitation is a secondary concern, unlike most museums.
The collection of the NAPC is primarily concerned with protecting historical texts and “editions” or banben-the word banben encompasses everything from historical editions of classic books to stamps, contemporary books, and early documents of the Communist Party. An exhibit in the entry foyer of the Beijing branch is “Witness Great Achievements,” celebrating the accomplishments of New China (after the PRC was founded in 1949) such as industrial development and features original works by Mao.
Nearby in the octagonal 15-meter high 文瀚阁 Wenhan Hall, there are original copies of some of the most famous Chinese encyclopedic collections such as the Si Ku Quanshu, or 四库全书, the Yongle Dadian 永乐大典 Yongle Encyclopedia, and the Complete Classics Collection of Ancient China, which was compiled between 1700 and 1725 during the Kangxi and Yongzheng reigns of the Qing Dynasty.
At the Hangzhou Museum, original and Chinese editions of the Communist Manifesto are displayed near editions of the Yongle Encyclopedia from the Qing Dynasty. This spatial proximity implies that all of these works are part of a continuous Chinese literary tradition. And that the Communist Party under Xi is increasingly presenting itself as the rightful steward and natural defender of this “Tradition.” Another exhibit in the Hangzhou pavilion explores the role of literati families in promoting education in Confucian values.
In each location, there has been an effort to include significant ancient texts and artifacts alongside texts and artifacts celebrating China’s Communist history or “red culture,” thus literally integrating under the same roof works of 优秀传统文化 “excellent traditional Chinese culture” and “classic works of red culture.” In remarks given during a visit to the complex in June, Xi himself celebrates the inclusion of works from the early years of the Communist Party, such as the so-called “Three Red Novels” or San Hong Yi Chuang, “Defending Yanan Baowei Yanan,” and “Songs of Youth” Qingshan Baolin.
The NAPC is a physical manifestation of Xi’s effort to integrate traditional Chinese and Marxist cultures, now referred to as the “two integrations” or liange jiehe. The notion of the “two integrations” is a recent Communist Party ideological concept, essentially saying that Marxism has had to integrate into China’s context. The first was the original introduction and dissemination of Marxism under Mao. The second is Xi’s effort to further Sinicize Marxism.
The NAPC directly references the practice in many historical dynasties of emperors creating archival collections to “curate” important historical texts of earlier periods. In practice, these projects also involved a great deal of censorship and editing of history – removing passages or rewriting parts of texts that were inconvenient for the ruling dynasty. For example, as scholar Kent Guy has shown in his book on Qianlong’s Siku Quanshu, the Emperor rewrote and edited historical texts to remove passages seen as offensive to the Manchus, who were the nan-Han ruling group of the Qing.
Another similarity with the current project is that there were seven libraries constructed around China to house copies of the Siku Quanshu. One was located in The Forbidden City in Beijing, while another was located in Hangzhou near the West Lake. The resemblance of the NAPC to this effort is quite clear, and is even referenced by some of the documents describing this current project as part of a unique Chinese archival tradition. Andrew Stokols
Andrew Stokols is a lecturer at the MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning and Research Associate at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
A new addition to Jurassic Park: Based on a skeleton of an eight to ten-meter-long herbivore discovered in China from the early Jurassic period, which began 201 million years ago and ended 145 million years ago, Chinese scientists have concluded that the long-necked animal must have been a previously unknown dinosaur species. The remarkably well-preserved vertebrae of Xingxiulong Yueorum were excavated in Yunnan Province in 2015, but the findings of the archaeological analyses have only now been published in Historical Biology.
At the end of January, a bipartisan bill was introduced in the US that could also severely affect global trade. After 25 years, China might lose its PNTR status soon – the US is on the verge of ending the People’s Republic’s preferential trade status. If revoked, the US would see China on the same economic level as Iran, North Korea and Belarus. An outcast trading partner. It would be one of the most radical changes in global trade in recent decades. Marcel Grzanna has written down the possible consequences of this step.
Our second analysis looks at a cultural project that is dear to Xi Jinping’s heart. The idea is to preserve the “golden seeds” of Chinese culture in four archives spread across China “so that they can be passed on to future generations.” This “gene bank of Chinese culture” is Xi Jinping’s way of promoting the unification of classical and Marxist heritage. The Communist Party presents itself as the rightful guardian of tradition – and uses historiography as an instrument of political power, writes Andrew Stokols.
The possible withdrawal of China’s PNTR status after 25 years is only one bill away. Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) is a legal term in the United States for free trade with a foreign country. At the initiative of President Donald Trump, numerous Republican and Democratic MPs and senators want to create the legal basis for the United States to end PNTR with the second-largest economy in just a few weeks. PNTR status guarantees most countries in the world easy access to the US market. Revoking it would make China an outcast trading partner.
Business associations such as the Federation of German Industries (BDI) and the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) expressed concern. “If the USA were to withdraw China’s PNTR status, this would have not only dramatic consequences for Chinese exporters with US business, but also significant consequences for global trade and the German economy, which is closely intertwined with both countries,” says Volker Treier, Head of Foreign Trade at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK). Investments would be reconsidered even more than before, possibly leading to relocations or even a withdrawal from China.
The shockwaves of a withdrawal would be felt all over the world. Treier fears that Chinese overcapacity would be redirected to the European market – with increased competitive pressure for companies on the continent. “This would also strain trade relations between China and the EU,” he says. Although the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs has declined to comment on “domestic American affairs,” it says it is “naturally” following developments.
“The initiative highlights the growing political pressure in the USA to reduce economic dependencies on China and protect strategic supply chains,” says economic expert Jasper Lüke from the SME association BVMW. “In addition, an escalating trade conflict could slow global economic growth, worsen the investment climate and thus weaken demand in the European domestic market,” warns Lüke. The only countries without PNTR status are Iran, North Korea and Belarus. However, their economic significance is marginal. China, on the other hand, is an indispensable buyer and supplier for many countries and regions.
German companies that are closely integrated into global supply chains, including the USA and China, would face particular problems. “Higher tariffs and possible counter-sanctions could complicate trade between these two economic powers, leading to supply bottlenecks, rising production costs and uncertainty for German companies,” says Lüke.
Many German companies reject protectionist measures because they tend to create uncertainty and make long-term planning more difficult. This is particularly true for those companies that operate production sites in China. However, even those that appear to benefit from stricter conditions for Chinese competitors when exporting from Europe to the USA would suffer from an escalation of trade conflicts. International supply chains would be particularly affected, as China plays a central role in many value-creation processes. Sectors such as mechanical engineering, the automotive industry and electrical engineering would likely face higher costs and less reliability.
The “Restoring Trade Fairness Act,” introduced in January 2025, is an expression of how political efforts in the US to end China’s PNTR status are taking shape. “China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status has enriched the Chinese Communist Party while costing the United States millions of jobs,” said lead Senator Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas, explaining the legislative initiative. Cotton believes that the comprehensive repeal and reform of trade relations between the USA and China would protect American workers, improve US national security and end the influence of the Chinese Communists on the American economy.
It has been over 25 years since the then US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright described granting PNTR status to China as “the right decision for America.” The Permanent Normal Trade Relations ultimately paved the way for the People’s Republic to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), which facilitated its steep rise to become the second-largest economy. However, despite US companies earning a lot of money with and in China for many years, US policymakers are now disillusioned with the relationship.
Experts mostly agree about the implications the PNTR withdrawal would have for the already ailing global trade system. It would destabilize it further and the WTO could also emerge weakened from the conflict, believes DIHK foreign trade expert Treier. The WTO is regarded as the guardian of global trade rules. It promotes an open, stable and predictable market environment and its authority is an important support for internationally active companies.
If the WTO loses influence, others will have to step in. Wolfgang Niedermark, Managing Director of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), believes the EU has an obligation. According to Niedermark, it is essential “that the EU Commission uses its options to counteract the erosion of the rules-based trading system.”
The Chinese ambassador to the World Trade Organization, Li Chenggang, spoke on Tuesday of American unilateralism, which could “topple the rules-based trading system.” Li stressed that the WTO must retain its voice.
Nestled at the foot of Yanshang Mountain north of Beijing near the capital’s central axis is the National Archives of Publications and Culture (NAPC). Commissioned by the Central Propaganda Department, it is under the highest state patronage. “I personally approved this project and have been paying close attention to it,” Xi Jinping remarked on an inspection tour in June 2023.
A September 2023 article published in Qiushi, the Communist Party’s leading theoretical journal, described the project as a “seed bank of continuous Chinese civilization” protecting “golden seeds of culture hidden in famous mountains, passed onto future generations” and a “seed gene bank of Chinese culture.” The terms are meant symbolically, as books, cultural assets and documents are collected and stored in the “seed vault” instead of actual plant seeds.
There are some interesting parallels between the NAPC as the “seed vault” of the Chinese civilization and the “Svalbard Global Seed Vault” in Spitsbergen, Norway, which was completed in 2008. Located in a remote mountainous region of Norway and designed by Peter Soderman, Svalbard was conceived of as securely storing the seeds of global plant species to preserve crop diversity, amidst climate change and growing threats to global species diversity.
The Svalbard vault opened in 2008 and is run by the Norwegian government but conceived as a “global vault” into which any country can deposit seeds. Meanwhile, the NAPC is explicitly intended to store the “cultural seeds” of Chinese civilization and thus is linked to national imaginaries of Chinese civilization as opposed to global ones.
Since entering office, Xi has promoted the term “cultural confidence,” or wenhua zixin 文化自信, as part of the “four confidences.” – confidence in the path, theory, system, and culture (of “socialism with Chinese characteristics”). Under Xi, the Party has taken ever greater interest in what Elizabeth Perry has termed “cultural governance,” or the “deployment of symbolic resources as an instrument of political authority…in a manner that underscores the distinctively ‘Chinese’ character of the political system.”
The National Archives of Publications and Culture is a nationwide “1+3 system” comprising the main branch in Beijing plus satellite branches spread across the four cardinal directions of China: Guangzhou in the South, Hangzhou in the East, Xi’an in the West, and Beijing in the North. The Beijing branch of the NAPC was built on the site of an abandoned quarry, “turning waste into treasure, realizing the dual benefits of humanity and nature, and implementing the development concept of the new era.”
Beneath the built-up area of 380,000 square meters is a 55,000 square-meter underground archive. The remote location of each branch of the NAPC indicates the core function is “preservation” and “safeguarding,” while public visitation is a secondary concern, unlike most museums.
The collection of the NAPC is primarily concerned with protecting historical texts and “editions” or banben-the word banben encompasses everything from historical editions of classic books to stamps, contemporary books, and early documents of the Communist Party. An exhibit in the entry foyer of the Beijing branch is “Witness Great Achievements,” celebrating the accomplishments of New China (after the PRC was founded in 1949) such as industrial development and features original works by Mao.
Nearby in the octagonal 15-meter high 文瀚阁 Wenhan Hall, there are original copies of some of the most famous Chinese encyclopedic collections such as the Si Ku Quanshu, or 四库全书, the Yongle Dadian 永乐大典 Yongle Encyclopedia, and the Complete Classics Collection of Ancient China, which was compiled between 1700 and 1725 during the Kangxi and Yongzheng reigns of the Qing Dynasty.
At the Hangzhou Museum, original and Chinese editions of the Communist Manifesto are displayed near editions of the Yongle Encyclopedia from the Qing Dynasty. This spatial proximity implies that all of these works are part of a continuous Chinese literary tradition. And that the Communist Party under Xi is increasingly presenting itself as the rightful steward and natural defender of this “Tradition.” Another exhibit in the Hangzhou pavilion explores the role of literati families in promoting education in Confucian values.
In each location, there has been an effort to include significant ancient texts and artifacts alongside texts and artifacts celebrating China’s Communist history or “red culture,” thus literally integrating under the same roof works of 优秀传统文化 “excellent traditional Chinese culture” and “classic works of red culture.” In remarks given during a visit to the complex in June, Xi himself celebrates the inclusion of works from the early years of the Communist Party, such as the so-called “Three Red Novels” or San Hong Yi Chuang, “Defending Yanan Baowei Yanan,” and “Songs of Youth” Qingshan Baolin.
The NAPC is a physical manifestation of Xi’s effort to integrate traditional Chinese and Marxist cultures, now referred to as the “two integrations” or liange jiehe. The notion of the “two integrations” is a recent Communist Party ideological concept, essentially saying that Marxism has had to integrate into China’s context. The first was the original introduction and dissemination of Marxism under Mao. The second is Xi’s effort to further Sinicize Marxism.
The NAPC directly references the practice in many historical dynasties of emperors creating archival collections to “curate” important historical texts of earlier periods. In practice, these projects also involved a great deal of censorship and editing of history – removing passages or rewriting parts of texts that were inconvenient for the ruling dynasty. For example, as scholar Kent Guy has shown in his book on Qianlong’s Siku Quanshu, the Emperor rewrote and edited historical texts to remove passages seen as offensive to the Manchus, who were the nan-Han ruling group of the Qing.
Another similarity with the current project is that there were seven libraries constructed around China to house copies of the Siku Quanshu. One was located in The Forbidden City in Beijing, while another was located in Hangzhou near the West Lake. The resemblance of the NAPC to this effort is quite clear, and is even referenced by some of the documents describing this current project as part of a unique Chinese archival tradition. Andrew Stokols
Andrew Stokols is a lecturer at the MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning and Research Associate at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Sinolytics is a research-based business consultancy focused on China. It advises European companies on their strategic orientation and specific business activities in the People’s Republic.
A new addition to Jurassic Park: Based on a skeleton of an eight to ten-meter-long herbivore discovered in China from the early Jurassic period, which began 201 million years ago and ended 145 million years ago, Chinese scientists have concluded that the long-necked animal must have been a previously unknown dinosaur species. The remarkably well-preserved vertebrae of Xingxiulong Yueorum were excavated in Yunnan Province in 2015, but the findings of the archaeological analyses have only now been published in Historical Biology.
